Winners in four major categories by year (dark fill indicates incorrect prediction)
Year Category Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob
Picture Green Book 0.20 The Favourite 0.22 Director Alfonso Cuarón 0.95 Alfonso Cuarón 0.95 2018 Actor Rami Malek 0.92 Rami Malek 0.92 Actress Olivia Colman 0.16 Glenn Close 0.75
Picture The Shape of Water 0.88 The Shape of Water 0.88 Director Guillermo del Toro 0.97 Guillermo del Toro 0.97 2017 Actor Gary Oldman 0.99 Gary Oldman 0.99 Actress Frances McDormand 0.71 Frances McDormand 0.71
Picture Moonlight 0.02 La La Land 0.97 Director Damien Chazelle 0.98 Damien Chazelle 0.98 2016 Actor Casey Affleck 0.29 Ryan Gosling 0.44 Actress Emma Stone 0.94 Emma Stone 0.94
Picture Spotlight 0.06 The Revenant 0.56 Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 2015 Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Actress Brie Larson 0.94 Brie Larson 0.94
Picture Birdman 0.51 Birdman 0.51 Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 2014 Actor Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Actress Julianne Moore 0.90 Julianne Moore 0.90
Picture 12 Years a Slave 0.67 12 Years a Slave 0.67 Director Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 2013 Actor Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Actress Cate Blanchett 0.69 Cate Blanchett 0.69
Picture Argo 0.17 Lincoln 0.37 Director Ang Lee 0.20 Steven Spielberg 0.58 2012 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Actress Jennifer Lawrence 0.86 Jennifer Lawrence 0.86
Picture The Artist 0.89 The Artist 0.89 Director Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 2011 Actor Jean Dujardin 0.64 Jean Dujardin 0.64 Actress Meryl Streep 0.08 Viola Davis 0.71
Picture The King's Speech 0.84 The King's Speech 0.84 Director Tom Hooper 0.93 Tom Hooper 0.93 2010 Actor Colin Firth 0.99 Colin Firth 0.99 Actress Natalie Portman 0.87 Natalie Portman 0.87
Picture The Hurt Locker 0.78 The Hurt Locker 0.78 Director Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 2009 2009 Actor Jeff Bridges 0.90 Jeff Bridges 0.90 Actress Sandra Bullock 0.90 Sandra Bullock 0.90
Picture Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Director Danny Boyle 0.81 Danny Boyle 0.81 2008 Actor Sean Penn 0.42 Sean Penn 0.42 Actress Kate Winslet 0.92 Kate Winslet 0.92
Picture No Country for Old Men 0.70 No Country for Old Men 0.70 Director Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 2007 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Actress Marion Cotillard 0.11 Julie Christie 0.72
Picture The Departed 0.10 Babel 0.69 Director Martin Scorsese 0.97 Martin Scorsese 0.97 2006 Actor Forest Whitaker 0.90 Forest Whitaker 0.90 Actress Helen Mirren 0.96 Helen Mirren 0.96
Picture Crash 0.03 Brokeback Mountain 0.91 Director Ang Lee 0.91 Ang Lee 0.91 2005 Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Actress Reese Witherspoon 0.76 Reese Witherspoon 0.76
Picture Million Dollar Baby 0.01 The Aviator 0.97 Director Clint Eastwood 0.95 Clint Eastwood 0.95 2004 Actor Jamie Foxx 0.51 Jamie Foxx 0.51 Actress Hilary Swank 0.93 Hilary Swank 0.93
Picture The Return of the King 0.94 The Return of the King 0.94 Director Peter Jackson 0.93 Peter Jackson 0.93 2003 Actor Sean Penn 0.85 Sean Penn 0.85 Actress Charlize Theron 0.87 Charlize Theron 0.87
Picture Chicago 0.95 Chicago 0.95 Director Roman Polanski 0.03 Rob Marshall 0.92 2002 Actor Adrien Brody 0.30 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.52 Actress Nicole Kidman 0.07 Renee Zellweger 0.90
Picture A Beautiful Mind 0.23 The Fellowship of the Ring 0.40 Director Ron Howard 0.92 Ron Howard 0.92 2001 Actor Denzel Washington 0.00 Russell Crowe 0.99 Actress Halle Berry 0.34 Halle Berry 0.34
Picture Gladiator 0.97 Gladiator 0.97 Director Steven Soderbergh 0.01 Ang Lee 0.95 2000 Actor Russell Crowe 0.67 Russell Crowe 0.67 Actress Julia Roberts 0.93 Julia Roberts 0.93
Picture American Beauty 0.85 American Beauty 0.85 Director Sam Mendes 0.92 Sam Mendes 0.92 1999 Actor Kevin Spacey 0.82 Kevin Spacey 0.82 1999 Actress Hilary Swank 0.10 Annette Bening 0.78
Picture Shakespeare in Love 0.10 Saving Private Ryan 0.89 Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1998 Actor Roberto Benigni 0.97 Roberto Benigni 0.97 Actress Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92 Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92
Picture Titanic 0.98 Titanic 0.98 Director James Cameron 0.99 James Cameron 0.99 1997 Actor Jack Nicholson 0.84 Jack Nicholson 0.84 Actress Helen Hunt 0.87 Helen Hunt 0.87
Picture The English Patient 0.98 The English Patient 0.98 Director Anthony Minghella 0.99 Anthony Minghella 0.99 1996 Actor Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Actress Frances McDormand 0.67 Frances McDormand 0.67
Picture Braveheart 0.30 Apollo 13 0.40 Director Mel Gibson 0.58 Mel Gibson 0.58 1995 Actor Nicolas Cage 0.96 Nicolas Cage 0.96 Actress Susan Sarandon 0.22 Sharon Stone 0.39
Picture Forrest Gump 0.99 Forrest Gump 0.99 Director Robert Zemeckis 0.99 Robert Zemeckis 0.99 1994 Actor Tom Hanks 0.51 Tom Hanks 0.51 Actress Jessica Lange 0.55 Jessica Lange 0.55
Picture Schindler's List 0.97 Schindler's List 0.97 Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1993 Actor Tom Hanks 0.59 Tom Hanks 0.59 Actress Holly Hunter 0.75 Holly Hunter 0.75
Picture Unforgiven 0.10 The Crying Game 0.72 Director Clint Eastwood 0.96 Clint Eastwood 0.96 1992 Actor Al Pacino 0.91 Al Pacino 0.91 Actress Emma Thompson 0.69 Emma Thompson 0.69
Picture The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 Director Jonathan Demme 0.91 Jonathan Demme 0.91 1991 Actor Anthony Hopkins 0.10 Nick Nolte 0.67 Actress Jodie Foster 0.45 Jodie Foster 0.45
Picture Dances With Wolves 0.98 Dances With Wolves 0.98 Director Kevin Costner 0.96 Kevin Costner 0.96 1990 Actor Jeremy Irons 0.83 Jeremy Irons 0.83 Actress Kathy Bates 0.36 Kathy Bates 0.36
Picture Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Director Oliver Stone 0.98 Oliver Stone 0.98 1989 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.07 Tom Cruise 0.64 Actress Jessica Tandy 0.47 Jessica Tandy 0.47 Picture Rain Man 0.92 Rain Man 0.92 Director Barry Levinson 0.92 Barry Levinson 0.92 1988 Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Actress Jodie Foster 0.16 Melanie Griffith 0.55
Picture The Last Emperor 0.97 The Last Emperor 0.97 Director Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 1987 Actor Michael Douglas 0.58 Michael Douglas 0.58 Actress Cher 0.39 Cher 0.39
Picture Platoon 0.89 Platoon 0.89 Director Oliver Stone 0.90 Oliver Stone 0.90 1986 Actor Paul Newman 0.07 Bob Hoskins 0.74 Actress Marlee Matlin 0.69 Marlee Matlin 0.69
Picture Out of Africa 0.44 Out of Africa 0.44 Director Sydney Pollack 0.47 Sydney Pollack 0.47 1985 Actor William Hurt 0.14 Jack Nicholson 0.42 Actress Geraldine Page 0.07 Whoopi Goldberg 0.70
Picture Amadeus 0.96 Amadeus 0.96 Director Milos Forman 0.95 Milos Forman 0.95 1984 Actor F. Murray Abraham 0.89 F. Murray Abraham 0.89 Actress Sally Field 0.48 Sally Field 0.48
Picture Terms of Endearment 0.99 Terms of Endearment 0.99 Director James L. Brooks 0.98 James L. Brooks 0.98 1983 Actor Robert Duvall 0.57 Robert Duvall 0.57 Actress Shirley MacLaine 0.53 Shirley MacLaine 0.53
Picture Gandhi 0.78 Gandhi 0.78 Director Richard Attenborough 0.94 Richard Attenborough 0.94 1982 Actor Ben Kingsley 0.77 Ben Kingsley 0.77 Actress Meryl Streep 0.38 Meryl Streep 0.38
Picture Chariots of Fire 0.01 Reds 0.88 Director Warren Beatty 0.98 Warren Beatty 0.98 1981 Actor Henry Fonda 0.79 Henry Fonda 0.79 Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.05 Meryl Streep 0.33
Picture Ordinary People 0.83 Ordinary People 0.83 Director Robert Redford 0.89 Robert Redford 0.89 1980 Actor Robert De Niro 0.91 Robert De Niro 0.91 Actress Sissy Spacek 0.32 Mary Tyler Moore 0.54
Picture Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Director Robert Benton 0.91 Robert Benton 0.91 1979 Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Actress Sally Field 0.61 Sally Field 0.61 Picture The Deer Hunter 0.69 The Deer Hunter 0.69 Director Michael Cimino 0.95 Michael Cimino 0.95 1978 Actor Jon Voight 0.57 Jon Voight 0.57 Actress Jane Fonda 0.29 Jane Fonda 0.29
Picture Annie Hall 0.13 The Turning Point 0.58 Director Woody Allen 0.54 Woody Allen 0.54 1977 Actor Richard Dreyfuss 0.32 Richard Burton 0.56 Actress Diane Keaton 0.36 Diane Keaton 0.36
Picture Rocky 0.93 Rocky 0.93 Director John G. Avildsen 0.87 John G. Avildsen 0.87 1976 Actor Peter Finch 0.87 Peter Finch 0.87 Actress Faye Dunaway 0.55 Faye Dunaway 0.55
Picture One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96 Director Milos Forman 0.86 Milos Forman 0.86 1975 Actor Jack Nicholson 0.88 Jack Nicholson 0.88 Actress Louise Fletcher 0.64 Louise Fletcher 0.64
Picture The Godfather Part II 0.58 The Godfather Part II 0.58 Director Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 1974 Actor Art Carney 0.02 Jack Nicholson 0.87 Actress Ellen Burstyn 0.07 Gena Rowlands 0.37
Picture The Sting 0.46 The Exorcist 0.49 Director George Roy Hill 0.94 George Roy Hill 0.94 1973 Actor Jack Lemmon 0.06 Al Pacino 0.54 Actress Glenda Jackson 0.09 Ellen Burstyn 0.58
Picture The Godfather 0.73 The Godfather 0.73 Director Bob Fosse 0.03 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 1972 Actor Marlon Brando 0.82 Marlon Brando 0.82 Actress Liza Minnelli 0.37 Liza Minnelli 0.37
Picture The French Connection 0.76 The French Connection 0.76 Director William Friedkin 0.93 William Friedkin 0.93 1971 Actor Gene Hackman 0.82 Gene Hackman 0.82 Actress Jane Fonda 0.34 Jane Fonda 0.34
Picture Patton 0.60 Patton 0.60 Director Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98 Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98 1970 Actor George C. Scott 0.90 George C. Scott 0.90 Actress Glenda Jackson 0.16 Ali MacGraw 0.61
Picture Midnight Cowboy 0.35 Anne of the Thousand Days 0.49 Director John Schlesinger 0.98 John Schlesinger 0.98 1969 Actor John Wayne 0.28 John Wayne 0.28 Actress Maggie Smith 0.09 Genevieve Bujold 0.54
Picture Oliver! 0.13 The Lion in Winter 0.77
1968 Director Carol Reed 0.02 Anthony Harvey 0.97 1968 Actor Cliff Robertson 0.00 Peter O'Toole 0.88 Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.20 Joanne Woodward 0.34 Actress Barbra Streisand 0.27 Joanne Woodward 0.34
Picture In the Heat of the Night 0.02 The Graduate 0.94 Director Mike Nichols 0.97 Mike Nichols 0.97 1967 Actor Rod Steiger 0.84 Rod Steiger 0.84 Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.06 Faye Dunaway 0.43
Picture A Man For All Seasons 0.76 A Man For All Seasons 0.76 Director Fred Zinneman 0.99 Fred Zinneman 0.99 1966 Actor Paul Scofield 0.59 Paul Scofield 0.59 Actress Elizabeth Taylor 0.10 Anouk Aimee 0.67
Picture The Sound of Music 0.94 The Sound of Music 0.94 Director Robert Wise 0.98 Robert Wise 0.98 1965 Actor Lee Marvin 0.11 Oskar Werner 0.67 Actress Julie Christie 0.24 Samantha Eggar 0.59
Picture My Fair Lady 0.93 My Fair Lady 0.93 Director George Cukor 0.99 George Cukor 0.99 1964 Actor Rex Harrison 0.05 Peter O'Toole 0.85 Actress Julia Andrews 0.46 Julia Andrews 0.46
Picture Tom Jones 0.99 Tom Jones 0.99 Director Tony Richardson 0.97 Tony Richardson 0.97 1963 Actor Sidney Poitier 0.83 Sidney Poitier 0.83 Actress Patricia Neal 0.20 Leslie Caron 0.48
Picture Lawrence of Arabia 0.92 Lawrence of Arabia 0.92 Director David Lean 1.00 David Lean 1.00 1962 Actor Gregory Peck 0.97 Gregory Peck 0.97 Actress Anne Bancroft 0.21 Geraldine Page 0.62
Picture West Side Story 0.98 West Side Story 0.98 Director Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99 Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99 1961 Actor Maximilian Schell 0.75 Maximilian Schell 0.75 Actress Sophia Loren 0.09 Geraldine Page 0.60
Picture The Apartment 0.99 The Apartment 0.99 Director Billy Wilder 1.00 Billy Wilder 1.00 1960 Actor Burt Lancaster 0.82 Burt Lancaster 0.82 Actress Elizabeth Taylor 0.08 Shirley MacLaine 0.36
Picture Ben-Hur 0.97 Ben-Hur 0.97 Director William Wyler 0.99 William Wyler 0.99 1959 Actor Charlton Heston 0.28 Charlton Heston 0.28 Actress Simone Signoret 0.16 Elizabeth Taylor 0.67
Picture Gigi 0.81 Gigi 0.81 1958 Director Vincente Minnelli 0.98 Vincente Minnelli 0.98 1958 Actor David Niven 0.76 David Niven 0.76 Actress Susan Hayward 0.67 Susan Hayward 0.67
Picture The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64 The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64 Director David Lean 0.97 David Lean 0.97 1957 Actor Alec Guinness 0.88 Alec Guinness 0.88 Actress Joanne Woodward 0.62 Joanne Woodward 0.62
Picture Around the World in 80 Days 0.02 The King and I 0.82 Director George Stevens 0.98 George Stevens 0.98 1956 Actor Yul Brynner 0.09 Kirk Douglas 0.38 Actress Ingrid Bergman 0.10 Deborah Kerr 0.75
Picture Marty 0.75 Marty 0.75 Director Delbert Mann 0.98 Delbert Mann 0.98 1955 Actor Ernest Borgnine 0.92 Ernest Borgnine 0.92 Actress Anna Magnani 0.81 Anna Magnani 0.81
Picture On the Waterfont 0.96 On the Waterfont 0.96 Director Elia Kazan 0.99 Elia Kazan 0.99 1954 Actor Marlon Brando 0.97 Marlon Brando 0.97 Actress Grace Kelly 0.64 Grace Kelly 0.64
Picture From Here to Eternity 0.83 From Here to Eternity 0.83 Director Fred Zinneman 0.97 Fred Zinneman 0.97 1953 Actor William Holden 0.16 Montgomery Clift 0.39 Actress Audrey Hepburn 0.55 Audrey Hepburn 0.55
Picture The Greatest Show on Earth 0.07 The Quiet Man 0.53 Director John Ford 0.95 John Ford 0.95 1952 Actor Gary Cooper 0.92 Gary Cooper 0.92 Actress Shirley Booth 0.11 Susan Hayward 0.84
Picture An American in Paris 0.02 A Place in the Sun 0.76 Director George Stevens 0.89 George Stevens 0.89 1951 Actor Humphrey Bogart 0.29 Montgomery Clift 0.29 Actress Vivien Leigh 0.13 Shelley Winters 0.35
Picture All About Eve 0.47 All About Eve 0.47 Director Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.09 Billy Wilder 0.78 1950 Actor Jose Ferrer 0.09 William Holden 0.63 Actress Judy Holliday 0.09 Gloria Swanson 0.76
Picture All the King's Men 0.50 All the King's Men 0.50 Director Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.02 Robert Rossen 0.50 1949 Actor Broderick Crawford 0.64 Broderick Crawford 0.64 Actress Olivia de Havilland 0.19 Jeanne Crain 0.26
Picture Hamlet 0.01 Johnny Belinda 0.97 Director John Huston 0.19 Jean Negulesco 0.57 1948 1948 Actor Laurence Olivier 0.91 Laurence Olivier 0.91 Actress Jane Wyman 0.67 Jane Wyman 0.67
Picture Gentleman's Agreement 0.88 Gentleman's Agreement 0.88 Director Elia Kazan 0.57 Elia Kazan 0.57 1947 Actor Ronald Colman 0.78 Ronald Colman 0.78 Actress Loretta Young 0.13 Rosalind Russell 0.39
Picture The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62 The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62 Director William Wyler 0.18 Frank Capra 0.56 1946 Actor Fredric March 0.02 Gregory Peck 0.85 Actress Olivia de Havilland 0.08 Rosalind Russell 0.43
Picture The Lost Weekend 0.33 The Bells Of St. Mary's 0.44 Director Billy Wilder 0.38 Billy Wilder 0.38 1945 Actor Ray Milland 0.81 Ray Milland 0.81 Actress Joan Crawford 0.16 Ingrid Bergman 0.73
Picture Going My Way 0.37 Going My Way 0.37 Director Leo McCarey 0.37 Leo McCarey 0.37 1944 Actor Bing Crosby 0.03 Alexander Knox 0.79 Actress Ingrid Bergman 0.81 Ingrid Bergman 0.81
Picture Casablanca 0.03 The Song Of Bernadette 0.90 Director Michael Curtiz 0.28 Henry King 0.40 1943 Actor Paul Lukas 0.10 Walter Pidgeon 0.33 Actress Jennifer Jones 0.45 Jennifer Jones 0.45
Picture Mrs. Miniver 0.80 Mrs. Miniver 0.80 Director William Wyler 0.71 William Wyler 0.71 1942 Actor James Cagney 0.24 Ronald Colman 0.48 Actress Greer Garson 0.51 Greer Garson 0.51
Picture How Green Was My Valley 0.21 Sergeant York 0.42 Director John Ford 0.25 William Wyler 0.44 1941 Actor Gary Cooper 0.42 Gary Cooper 0.42 Actress Joan Fontaine 0.25 Olivia de Havilland 0.25
Picture Rebecca 0.87 Rebecca 0.87 Director John Ford 0.16 Alfred Hitchcock 0.44 1940 Actor James Stewart 0.24 Laurence Olivier 0.57 Actress Ginger Rogers 0.21 Joan Fontaine 0.49
Picture Gone With the Wind 0.81 Gone With the Wind 0.81 Director Victor Fleming 0.25 Frank Capra 0.31 1939 Actor Robert Donat 0.33 Robert Donat 0.33 Actress Vivien Leigh 0.39 Vivien Leigh 0.39
Picture You Can't Take It With You 0.30 You Can't Take It With You 0.30 Director Frank Capra 0.25 Frank Capra 0.25 1938 Actor Spencer Tracy 0.17 Leslie Howard 0.41 1938 Actress Bette Davis 0.21 Wendy Hiller 0.26