Winners in four major categories by year (dark fill indicates incorrect prediction) Year Category Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob Picture Green Book 0.20 The Favourite 0.22 Director Alfonso Cuarón 0.95 Alfonso Cuarón 0.95 2018 Actor Rami Malek 0.92 Rami Malek 0.92 Actress Olivia Colman 0.16 Glenn Close 0.75 Picture The Shape of Water 0.88 The Shape of Water 0.88 Director Guillermo del Toro 0.97 Guillermo del Toro 0.97 2017 Actor Gary Oldman 0.99 Gary Oldman 0.99 Actress Frances McDormand 0.71 Frances McDormand 0.71 Picture Moonlight 0.02 La La Land 0.97 Director Damien Chazelle 0.98 Damien Chazelle 0.98 2016 Actor Casey Affleck 0.29 Ryan Gosling 0.44 Actress Emma Stone 0.94 Emma Stone 0.94 Picture Spotlight 0.06 The Revenant 0.56 Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 2015 Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Actress Brie Larson 0.94 Brie Larson 0.94 Picture Birdman 0.51 Birdman 0.51 Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 2014 Actor Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Actress Julianne Moore 0.90 Julianne Moore 0.90 Picture 12 Years a Slave 0.67 12 Years a Slave 0.67 Director Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 2013 Actor Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Actress Cate Blanchett 0.69 Cate Blanchett 0.69 Picture Argo 0.17 Lincoln 0.37 Director Ang Lee 0.20 Steven Spielberg 0.58 2012 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Actress Jennifer Lawrence 0.86 Jennifer Lawrence 0.86 Picture The Artist 0.89 The Artist 0.89 Director Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 2011 Actor Jean Dujardin 0.64 Jean Dujardin 0.64 Actress Meryl Streep 0.08 Viola Davis 0.71 Picture The King's Speech 0.84 The King's Speech 0.84 Director Tom Hooper 0.93 Tom Hooper 0.93 2010 Actor Colin Firth 0.99 Colin Firth 0.99 Actress Natalie Portman 0.87 Natalie Portman 0.87 Picture The Hurt Locker 0.78 The Hurt Locker 0.78 Director Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 2009 2009 Actor Jeff Bridges 0.90 Jeff Bridges 0.90 Actress Sandra Bullock 0.90 Sandra Bullock 0.90 Picture Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Director Danny Boyle 0.81 Danny Boyle 0.81 2008 Actor Sean Penn 0.42 Sean Penn 0.42 Actress Kate Winslet 0.92 Kate Winslet 0.92 Picture No Country for Old Men 0.70 No Country for Old Men 0.70 Director Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 2007 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Actress Marion Cotillard 0.11 Julie Christie 0.72 Picture The Departed 0.10 Babel 0.69 Director Martin Scorsese 0.97 Martin Scorsese 0.97 2006 Actor Forest Whitaker 0.90 Forest Whitaker 0.90 Actress Helen Mirren 0.96 Helen Mirren 0.96 Picture Crash 0.03 Brokeback Mountain 0.91 Director Ang Lee 0.91 Ang Lee 0.91 2005 Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Actress Reese Witherspoon 0.76 Reese Witherspoon 0.76 Picture Million Dollar Baby 0.01 The Aviator 0.97 Director Clint Eastwood 0.95 Clint Eastwood 0.95 2004 Actor Jamie Foxx 0.51 Jamie Foxx 0.51 Actress Hilary Swank 0.93 Hilary Swank 0.93 Picture The Return of the King 0.94 The Return of the King 0.94 Director Peter Jackson 0.93 Peter Jackson 0.93 2003 Actor Sean Penn 0.85 Sean Penn 0.85 Actress Charlize Theron 0.87 Charlize Theron 0.87 Picture Chicago 0.95 Chicago 0.95 Director Roman Polanski 0.03 Rob Marshall 0.92 2002 Actor Adrien Brody 0.30 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.52 Actress Nicole Kidman 0.07 Renee Zellweger 0.90 Picture A Beautiful Mind 0.23 The Fellowship of the Ring 0.40 Director Ron Howard 0.92 Ron Howard 0.92 2001 Actor Denzel Washington 0.00 Russell Crowe 0.99 Actress Halle Berry 0.34 Halle Berry 0.34 Picture Gladiator 0.97 Gladiator 0.97 Director Steven Soderbergh 0.01 Ang Lee 0.95 2000 Actor Russell Crowe 0.67 Russell Crowe 0.67 Actress Julia Roberts 0.93 Julia Roberts 0.93 Picture American Beauty 0.85 American Beauty 0.85 Director Sam Mendes 0.92 Sam Mendes 0.92 1999 Actor Kevin Spacey 0.82 Kevin Spacey 0.82 1999 Actress Hilary Swank 0.10 Annette Bening 0.78 Picture Shakespeare in Love 0.10 Saving Private Ryan 0.89 Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1998 Actor Roberto Benigni 0.97 Roberto Benigni 0.97 Actress Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92 Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92 Picture Titanic 0.98 Titanic 0.98 Director James Cameron 0.99 James Cameron 0.99 1997 Actor Jack Nicholson 0.84 Jack Nicholson 0.84 Actress Helen Hunt 0.87 Helen Hunt 0.87 Picture The English Patient 0.98 The English Patient 0.98 Director Anthony Minghella 0.99 Anthony Minghella 0.99 1996 Actor Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Actress Frances McDormand 0.67 Frances McDormand 0.67 Picture Braveheart 0.30 Apollo 13 0.40 Director Mel Gibson 0.58 Mel Gibson 0.58 1995 Actor Nicolas Cage 0.96 Nicolas Cage 0.96 Actress Susan Sarandon 0.22 Sharon Stone 0.39 Picture Forrest Gump 0.99 Forrest Gump 0.99 Director Robert Zemeckis 0.99 Robert Zemeckis 0.99 1994 Actor Tom Hanks 0.51 Tom Hanks 0.51 Actress Jessica Lange 0.55 Jessica Lange 0.55 Picture Schindler's List 0.97 Schindler's List 0.97 Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1993 Actor Tom Hanks 0.59 Tom Hanks 0.59 Actress Holly Hunter 0.75 Holly Hunter 0.75 Picture Unforgiven 0.10 The Crying Game 0.72 Director Clint Eastwood 0.96 Clint Eastwood 0.96 1992 Actor Al Pacino 0.91 Al Pacino 0.91 Actress Emma Thompson 0.69 Emma Thompson 0.69 Picture The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 Director Jonathan Demme 0.91 Jonathan Demme 0.91 1991 Actor Anthony Hopkins 0.10 Nick Nolte 0.67 Actress Jodie Foster 0.45 Jodie Foster 0.45 Picture Dances With Wolves 0.98 Dances With Wolves 0.98 Director Kevin Costner 0.96 Kevin Costner 0.96 1990 Actor Jeremy Irons 0.83 Jeremy Irons 0.83 Actress Kathy Bates 0.36 Kathy Bates 0.36 Picture Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Director Oliver Stone 0.98 Oliver Stone 0.98 1989 Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.07 Tom Cruise 0.64 Actress Jessica Tandy 0.47 Jessica Tandy 0.47 Picture Rain Man 0.92 Rain Man 0.92 Director Barry Levinson 0.92 Barry Levinson 0.92 1988 Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Actress Jodie Foster 0.16 Melanie Griffith 0.55 Picture The Last Emperor 0.97 The Last Emperor 0.97 Director Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 1987 Actor Michael Douglas 0.58 Michael Douglas 0.58 Actress Cher 0.39 Cher 0.39 Picture Platoon 0.89 Platoon 0.89 Director Oliver Stone 0.90 Oliver Stone 0.90 1986 Actor Paul Newman 0.07 Bob Hoskins 0.74 Actress Marlee Matlin 0.69 Marlee Matlin 0.69 Picture Out of Africa 0.44 Out of Africa 0.44 Director Sydney Pollack 0.47 Sydney Pollack 0.47 1985 Actor William Hurt 0.14 Jack Nicholson 0.42 Actress Geraldine Page 0.07 Whoopi Goldberg 0.70 Picture Amadeus 0.96 Amadeus 0.96 Director Milos Forman 0.95 Milos Forman 0.95 1984 Actor F. Murray Abraham 0.89 F. Murray Abraham 0.89 Actress Sally Field 0.48 Sally Field 0.48 Picture Terms of Endearment 0.99 Terms of Endearment 0.99 Director James L. Brooks 0.98 James L. Brooks 0.98 1983 Actor Robert Duvall 0.57 Robert Duvall 0.57 Actress Shirley MacLaine 0.53 Shirley MacLaine 0.53 Picture Gandhi 0.78 Gandhi 0.78 Director Richard Attenborough 0.94 Richard Attenborough 0.94 1982 Actor Ben Kingsley 0.77 Ben Kingsley 0.77 Actress Meryl Streep 0.38 Meryl Streep 0.38 Picture Chariots of Fire 0.01 Reds 0.88 Director Warren Beatty 0.98 Warren Beatty 0.98 1981 Actor Henry Fonda 0.79 Henry Fonda 0.79 Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.05 Meryl Streep 0.33 Picture Ordinary People 0.83 Ordinary People 0.83 Director Robert Redford 0.89 Robert Redford 0.89 1980 Actor Robert De Niro 0.91 Robert De Niro 0.91 Actress Sissy Spacek 0.32 Mary Tyler Moore 0.54 Picture Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Director Robert Benton 0.91 Robert Benton 0.91 1979 Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Actress Sally Field 0.61 Sally Field 0.61 Picture The Deer Hunter 0.69 The Deer Hunter 0.69 Director Michael Cimino 0.95 Michael Cimino 0.95 1978 Actor Jon Voight 0.57 Jon Voight 0.57 Actress Jane Fonda 0.29 Jane Fonda 0.29 Picture Annie Hall 0.13 The Turning Point 0.58 Director Woody Allen 0.54 Woody Allen 0.54 1977 Actor Richard Dreyfuss 0.32 Richard Burton 0.56 Actress Diane Keaton 0.36 Diane Keaton 0.36 Picture Rocky 0.93 Rocky 0.93 Director John G.