The Potential of WiMAX: Short Trip to the World

Presentation Jaroslaw K. Ponder Focal Point for Europe, a.i. International Telecommunication Union Telecommunication Development Bureau

International Telecommunication Union Short Trip to the Wireless World

Invest… Business Models Enabling Environment WiMAX: New Revolution Technology: Wireless Solutions ICT Trends: Towards Mobility

2 Telecom Business drivers are: Wireless, Broadband & IP

More than 3 Billion Mobile Phones in More than 350 Millions Broadband lines worldwide use Worldwide and growing and growing 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ALL Wireless IP Broadband

Main (fixed) telephone 3 lines Mobile subscribers

Internet users 2

1

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Subscribers switching from fixed to Mobile services. 3

3 Wireless Industry Dynamics

Voice Still King but New Wireless Applications Broadband Devices Mobile Mobile Video – Entertainment Voice + Broadband Migration to Wireless 1. Next Generation Mobility WiMAX 802.16d here today for fixed EV-DO & HSDPA “arms war” in US WiMAX 802.16e, Rev C & LTE on horizon 2. Mobile Application Solutions - IMS Voice : Dual Mode with WiFi, Single UI

Video : Optimized delivery 4 4 WiMAX: New Revolution

W orldwide WAN i ntegration IEEE 802.20 3GPP, EDGE (proposed) (GSM) M icrowave IEEE 802.16 - MAN ETSI HiperMAN & WirelessMAN HIPERACCESS A ccess (WiMax) X technologies IEEE 802.11 - LAN ETSI WirelessLAN HiperLAN (WiFi)

IEEE 802.15 - PAN ETSI Bluetooth HiperPAN

Initiative by ¾ 70 member companies among which Alcatel, Airspan, Alvarion, Aperto, AT&T, BeamReach, Covad, Fujitsu, Intel, PCCW, Proxim, Redline, Siemens Mobile, SR Telecom, WiLAN, ZTE, ...

5 IEEE 802.16 - WiMAX

ƒ Cable replacement (xDSL, CATV) - WDSL ƒ Point to Multipoint & Mesh Topologies ¾ 70Mbps at 50Km (in theory) ¾ 15-20Mbps at 10 Km (in practice) ƒ IEEE 802.16 WMAN ¾ WMAN, (LOS) at 10-66GHz ¾ B(F)WA, NLOS at 2-11GHz ¾ IEEE 802.16-2004 – replaced IEEE 802.16RevD ¾ IEEE 802.16e-2005 (Mobility support) ƒ WiMAX Forum: an industry-led, not- for-profit organization formed to certify and promote the compatibility and interoperability of broadband wireless products based upon the harmonized IEEE 802.16/ETSI HiperMAN standard. ¾ Product Examples: Several WiMAX solutions (Chipsets, Systems, PCMCIA cards, modems, etc). Early examples: the Rosedale chip-set (Intel), …

6 WiMAX Evolution: Application Scenarios

7 Source: Source: Siemens 7 WiMAX Network Topologies

P2P Backhaul

P2MP Backhaul Fixed / Mobile Wi-Fi Access & Backhaul WiMAX Coverage Cell

WiMAX Coverage Area via Multiple Cells Wi-Fi

8 Diverse Wireless Technologies

Standard Family Primary Use Radio Tech Downlink Uplink Notes (Mbit/s) (Mbit/s) LTE UMTS/4GSM Mobile Internet OFDMA/MIMO/SC-FDMA 326.4 86.4 LTE-Advanced update to offer over 1 Gbit/s speeds. 802.16e WiMAX Mobile Internet MIMO-SOFDMA 70 70 Quoted speeds only achievable at very short ranges, more practically 10 Mbit/s at 10 km.

HIPERMAN HIPERMAN Mobile Internet OFDM 56.9 56.9

WiBro WiBro Mobile Internet OFDMA 50 50 Mobile range (900 m) iBurst iBurst 802.20 Mobile Internet HC-SDMA/TDD/MIMO 64 64 3–12 km EDGE Evolution GSM Mobile Internet TDMA/FDD 1.9 0.9 3GPP Release 7 UMTS W-CDMA UMTS/3GSM Mobile Internet CDMA/FDD 0.384 0.384 HSDPA widely deployed. HSDPA+HSUPA Typical downlink rates today 1– HSPA+ CDMA/FDD/MIMO 14.4 5.76 2 Mbit/s, ~200 kbit/s uplink; 42 11.5 HSPA+ downlink up to 42 Mbit/s. UMTS-TDD UMTS/3GSM Mobile Internet CDMA/TDD 16 16 Reported speeds according to IPWireless using 16QAM modulation similar to HSDPA+HSUPA 1xRTT CDMA2000 CDMA 0.144 0.144 Succeeded by EV-DO EV-DO 1x Rev. 0 CDMA2000 Mobile Internet CDMA/FDD 2.45 0.15 Rev B note: N is the number of EV-DO 1x Rev.A 1.25 MHz chunks of spectrum 9 EV-DO Rev.B 3.1 1.8 used. Not yet deployed. 4.9xN 1.8xN WiMAX Positioning

O Hotspot coverage O Broadband Wireless O Voice, data & “on the pause” Access “on the multimedia “on the O Low CPE cost move” full move” O Lower security O Area coverage O Nationwide WiFi WiMAX coverage O No guaranteed bit O Powerful power rate (shared pipe) control O Full mobility

O Nomadic Spectral Spectral efficiency efficiency 5 5 5 4 4 Spectrum w idth Global cost Spectrum width Global cost Spectrum w idth 4 Global cost 3 3 3 2 2 2 Number of 1 Number of 1 Number of cc 1 simultaneous subs / 0 CPE cost simultaneous subs 0 CPE cost simultaneous 0 CPE cost cell / cell subs / cell

Reach Mobility Reach Mobility Reach Mobility Security Security Security

Note: Comparative ranking with other technologies in performance per cell. Global cost per end user including spectrum fee. Source: Alcatel 10 WiMAX Keyword

The keyword for WiMAX success story is not combat with other wired or wireless and mobile technologies, but it is integration or internetworking for services provisioning over IP.

11 WiMAX cons and pros

Pros Cons ƒ WiMAX has fixed version ƒ Many “big” vendors from (WLL) and mobile version the mobile industry are not likely to go into ƒ It has built-in centralized WiMAX business near QoS support soon ƒ Offers higher bit rates ƒ ISP market is saturated than mobile networks in developed countries and better mobility and with xDSL and cable QoS than WLAN network access to ƒ Mobile WiMAX joined ITU Internet (nearly 90%) IMT-2000 group of 3G ƒ Mobile networks are standards in 2007 strongly going towards ƒ WiMAX is targeting GSM evolution (, attractive frequency 2., 3G, 3G-LTE, bandwidths (e.g. 700 etc.) MHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.5 GHz)

12 What WiMAX Can Do for You?

13 13 The Business Models

Network Model Services Spectrum & Standards

Metro & 802.16-2004 backhaul Government IP Data Wi-Fi Hot zones Unlicensed 5.8 DSL Fill-in & E1/T1 replacement: 802.16-2004 Fixed last mile only IP Data Licensed 2.5 & 3.5 TDM Voice Unlicensed 5.8 VoIP Fixed only services + 802.16e Portable IP data Fixed Æ Portable Licensed 2.5 & 3.5 Portable VoIP 802.16d backhaul Vertical applications Fixed/ Portable Services + 802.16e Portable & Mobile IP Voice, data & video Licensed 2.5 & 3.5

14 Worldwide BWA/WiMAX Deployments

15 Source: WiMAXCounts.com CEE and Baltic States in Numbers 2007

ƒ 17 countries including 10 EU members* ƒ Population (total)= 125.96M ƒ Density= 81.68 per m2 ƒ GDP per capita= 7578 USD ƒ Basic ICT Statistics ¾ Total Telephone Subscr.= 155.5M ¾ Fixed lines per 100= 28.7 ¾ Mobile per 100= 106 ¾ Effective teledencity= 99.41 ƒ Note: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria*, Croatia, Czech Rep.*, Estonia*, Hungary*, *Latvia*, Lithuania*, Montenegro, Poland*, Romania*, Serbia, Slovak Rep.*, Slovenia*, TFYR Macedonia, Turkey

16 All Communication Means per 100 Inhab. in CEE and Baltic States, 2001-2007

120

Cellular Subscribers per 100 Inhab. 100 Main Telephone Lines per 100 Ihab. Broadband Subscribers per 100 Inhab.

80

60

40

20

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

17 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Mobile Subscribers per 100 Inhab. in CEE and Baltic States, 2001-2007 160 148.4 144.9 2007 140 2004 129.6 128.4 2001

120 112.6 110.5 110.0 2007 Average: European Union: 111.8% 108.7 107.3 106.7

100 105.6 96.3 2007 Average: CEE & Baltic States: 106%

94.1 93.3 85.7 88.5 86.4 80 74.5 73.4 72.1 79.4 78.0 73.7 69.3 62.3 67.9 67.2 60 64.2 60.9 59.9

48.8 47.1 48.5 40 45.5 39.9 40.1 39.4 36.4

29.2 27.9 20 25.9 19.6 17.2 17.3 11.1 12.7 11.7 0 EE LT BG CZ SK HR HU PL ME RO SI SP MK LV AL BA

18 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Main Telephone Lines per 100 Inhab. in CEE and Baltic States, 2001-2004-2007

60 58.9

2001 2004 2007

50

42.8 40.1 40 37.1

32.4 2007 Average: CEE & 30.4 30.1 Baltic States: 29.7% 28.3 30 27.3 27.1 27.1 24.6 23.6 22.7 21.3 20.1 20

11.3 10

0 ME SI HR EE HU SP BG CZ LV PL BA TR LT MK SK RO AL

19 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Broadband Subscribers per 100 Inhab. & Total Subscr. in CEE and Baltic States per25 100 (000)5000

Total Number of BB Subscribers in CEE & Baltic States in 2007: 15.7 Mln 4500

20.8 20 4000

2007 Average in European Union: 20.0%

17.2 3500 16.0 2007 15 15.1 15.0 3000 2004 2001 2500 BB Subscr. (000) 10 10.4 2000 9.9 2007 Average: CEE & 7.6 7.5 7.4 1500 8.4 8.2 Baltic States: 8.89%

5.8 5.8 5 1000 4.1 3.7 4.3 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 500 1.5 0.5 0.8 0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0 EE SI CZ HU LT RO HR SK PL LV BG TR ME SP MK BA AL

20 Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database Incumbent's Broadband Market Share in CEE and Baltic States, 2007

100

88.0 90 88.0 Incubents no resale 80 Incubents + DSL resale

70

58.6 58.3 60 55.3 58.6 54.8 55.2 49.9 49.7 48.9 50 49.8 49.7 44.5 44.4 41.2 44.5 44.2 41.2 40 33.9

33.9 28.3 30 28.0 25.8 17.2 20 17.2

10

0 CY PL SK EE SI LT EU HU LV MT CZ BG RO

21 Broadband coverage across the EU – National Coverage versus Rural Areas

DSL rural DSL rural Cable Rural Cable Rural coverage gap with Coverage Gap with national National coverage Coverage SI 78.50% 9.70% 24.30% 24.80% HU 77.00% 12.00% 0.00% 72.00% PL 54.80% 12.30% 7.00% 11.00% LT 58.00% 25.00% 2.10% 49.40% LV 37.00% 35.00% 0.00% 50.00% SK 29.50% 36.20% N/A N/A CY 0.00% 69.70% 0.00% 30.00% MT 0.00% 99.00% N/R N/R EU25 71.30% 18.00% 7.40% 28.20%

22 Source: EU Implementation Report / Idate Report 'Broadband Coverage in Europe' 2007 Costs Indications

ƒ Base station chasis – 5 000 USD ƒ NPU module – 10 000 USD ƒ Radio module – 7 500 USD ƒ Power supply adaptor – 1 000 USD ƒ Power module – 1 000 USD

ƒ Outdoor radio module (placed on roof, chimney etc.) – 3 000 USD ƒ Antenna (the higher placed the better it is) – 700 USD

ƒ Software – 6 000 USD ƒ Device drivers – 2 000 USD ƒ Makro base station license – 2 000 USD ƒ CPE (receiver) licenses – 3 500 USD

¾ Total – 41 700 USD

23 Tentative Forecasts for Broadband Access Technologies Broadband Wireless This general term could refer to any of the high-speed wireless technologies currently available, such as 802.11a, 802.11b, or 802.11g for WLANs (WiFi), or the emerging 802.16 standards for WMANs (WiMAX) (source CNET)

24 Sources: Graph: ITU; Table: EU Implementation Report 2007 Case Studies: Poland/Netia

ƒ Netia ¾ WIMAX network coverage: 30 percent and 40 per cent of the population ¾ 78 base stations ¾ 12,000 WiMAX subscribers ƒ Revenues – WiMAX ARPU: Euro 40 per month – ADSL (offering both voice and broadband): Euro 30 per month. ¾ Total broadband subscribers: 217,000 ƒ Change of the strategy ¾ Reasons ƒ Introduction of bit-stream access and local loop unbundling ƒ End of 2007, Netia had nearly 100,000 broadband subscribers via TPSA's bitsteam service (the Polish altnet started to offer commercial LLU products during Q1 2008); own fixed-line network, there were 111,000 broadband subscribers by the end of 2007. ¾ New focus: ƒ poor service by TPSA or "insufficient coverage“ ƒ little scope to offer bitstream or LLU ƒ Municipalities – It is not commercially attractive for telcos to enter cities with less than 15,000 inhabitants – Poland: 650 cities with less than 20,000 people each (comprising a total of around 5 million people) – The investment required may be subsidised by the EU by up to 80 percent – Additional frequencies available in the 3.5GHz, 3.6GHz and 3.8GHz frequency bands for local municipalities 25 Summary

ƒ WiMAX is a disruptive technology ¾ Full IP standard radio access system ¾ High broadband rates and low latency ¾ Integrated in fixed/portable terminals, or smart mobile devices ƒ WiMAX offers new applications critical to achieving mass market penetration rates ¾ Bridging rural digital divide with wireless ¾ Broadband Internet everywhere ƒ WiMAX Deployment is gaining worldwide momentum

26 26 Thank you very much for your attention!

Jaroslaw K. Ponder Acting Focal Point for Europe International Telecommunication Union Telecommunication Development Bureau

International Telecommunication Union