SUBMISSION TO THE INQUIRY INTO REGIONAL CENTRES OF THE FUTURE.

RURAL AND REGIONAL COMMITTEE PARLIAMENT OF VICTORIA

SUBMITTED BY WARRNAMBOOL CITY COUNCIL

AUGUST 2008

1

The Executive Officer Rural and Regional Committee Parliament House MELBOURNE VIC 3002

Dear Sir / Madam

Thank you for the opportunity to provide a submission to the Inquiry. We hope that these comments provide you with our regional perspective of the potential for future growth in Victoria. Please contact Bart Gane or Andrew Paton in the Department of City Growth if you require any further information.

Yours sincerely

Bart Gane

Strategic Planning [email protected]

(03) 5559 4951

Andrew Paton

Business Development [email protected]

(03) 5559 4923

2

1. Introduction

The City of Warrnambool welcomes this opportunity to participate in the Rural and Regional Affairs Committee Inquiry into Regional Centres of the Future. In presenting this submission, the City of Warrnambool initially wishes to provide a brief overview of Warrnambool that in turn impact on some of the matters that will be raised below.

2. A profile of the City of Warrnambool

The City of Warrnambool is located in south-western Victoria, about 260 kilometres from Melbourne. Warrnambool is Victoria’s largest coastal City outside Port Phillip Bay and is one of Victoria’s fastest growing regional cities with a current population of approximately 32,500. Warrnambool is considered the economic, cultural and social capital of south western Victoria, as well as being a popular tourist and retirement destination. Warrnambool City Council (“Council”) attributes the significant growth of Warrnambool to the strength of its diverse regional economy and the liveability of the City and its region.

The strategic importance of Warrnambool is underpinned by its location as:

• the academic, cultural and commercial centre of the South West region; • a location of emerging importance for green energy power production (natural gas and wind power generation); • a high rainfall region with a strong resilience to climate change; • a growing regional centre with the capacity to sustainably support further population growth and decentralisation; • a centre with good quality rail connection to the capital city; • the Western Gateway to the Great Ocean Road tourism region; • the Australian centre for dairying and milk processing; and • the health service centre for the Great South West Coast Region.

The table below shows Warrnambool to be Victoria’s fastest growing city (by statistical district) in 2006/07, with a growth rate of 1.7%, on a par with Bendigo.

GROWTH RATE (%) REGIONAL CITIES, 2006 - 07

Shepparton 1.0

Geelong 1.0

Albury-Wodonga 1.0

La Trobe Valley 1.2

Ballarat 1.4

Mildura 1.6

Bendigo 1.7

Warrnambool 1.7

0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Growth rate (%)

Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2006-2007 (cat. no. 3218.0).

3

Further evidence of Warrnambool’s fast growing population is shown by the figure below - regional population growth rates by LGA for the year 2006-07. Warrnambool is the fourth fastest growing regional LGA, behind Surf Coast, Mitchell, and Bass Coast. However, those LGA’s ahead of Warrnambool are growing with the assistance of being within commuter distance of Melbourne, and also on the back of the Melbourne 2030 Transit City program.

Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2006-2007 (cat. no. 3218.0).

Population projections published in 2004 by the Victorian Government’s Department of Planning and Community Development forecast Warrnambool’s population to rise to around 38,000 by 2021. Based on more recent analysis undertaken by the Warrnambool City Council, this figure is viewed as conservative and Council suggest that the City’s projected population by 2021 could be around 43,000, or possibly higher. Council is planning for a City of 50,000 by 2030.

Warrnambool’s role as a regional hub for retail, commercial, trades, education, health and professional services means City Council provides an extensive range of services not only to Warrnambool but to the broader South West catchment. This catchment is shown in the 2007 Warrnambool Strategy as a region extending from Mount Gambier to Ballarat and Colac. The provision of these services therefore plays a pivotal role in the health, social and economic wellbeing of the broader community and also means Warrnambool must gear itself to service a population that is significantly higher than that which resides within the City of Warrnambool boundaries. In effect, Warrnambool plays the role of the regional capital of the South West and must support the services of the region and its accompanying growth in industry, population migration and professional services.

Council recognise that one of the key measures of liveability of a region is the level of net population movement. The population movement to Warrnambool from other Local Government Areas (LGA) around Victoria over the period 2001-2006 is set out overleaf.

4 Top 10 LGAs ranked by net population movement to Warrnambool 2001 - 2006 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 (RC) (S) (S) (S) Colac- Knox (C) Horsham Mount Southern Otway (S) Moyne (S) Peninsula Grampians Mornington Glenelg (S) Ararat (RC) Gambier (C) Corangamite

Source: ABS, Census of Housing Population, 2006

Population movement has mostly been from local movements within the South West Victorian region. The movement to Warrnambool from the Melbourne LGA Knox is part of the successful migrant relocation project in attracting Sudanese residents to Warrnambool to address skills shortages in the region. There are successful examples of professional migration from Italy, Sri Lanka, the former Soviet Union and the United Kingdom that have successfully integrated with the local community. Although the demographic mix is predominantly Anglo-Celtic, the city is largely embracing of new ethnic migrants and has a reputation for a high degree of religious and ethnic tolerance.

The graph below sets out the age profile of Warrnambool residents. Warrnambool has an ageing profile which is consistent with the Australian population in general. However, Warrnambool’s population is also above the Regional Victorian and Victorian State average for all age categories between 0 to 24. The capacity of Warrnambool to attract and retain families is also evident. When coupled with the ageing profile, considerable demands are placed upon the City of Warrnambool to provide and expand services to support this population. However, it is also worth noting that unlike many regional areas, Warrnambool has a relatively strong demographic profile in the younger adult and family age groups supporting a cultural scene and vibrant arts sector. For this reason, Warrnambool is able to support a major regional Art Gallery and Performing Arts space.

Age structure - Warrnambool population

85 and over 70 to 84 60 to 69 50 to 59 35 to 49 25 to 34 18 to 24 12 to 17 5 to 11 0 to 4

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 %

Victoria Regional Victoria Warrnambool

Source: ABS, Census of Housing Population, 2006

5

The graphs below detail the leading industries in Warrnambool by value added and employment. The importance of a strong retail and manufacturing sector, and the provision of quality healthcare and education in the region is evident.

In particular, Council welcomes the support for the long overdue redevelopment of the Warrnambool campus of South West Healthcare. South West Healthcare provides an extensive range of services not only to Warrnambool but to the broader South West catchment and therefore plays a pivotal role in the health, social and economic wellbeing of the broader community. Council is hopeful that an announcement for the remainder of the funding to complete this redevelopment will follow shortly.

6 3. The Terms of Reference

The Terms of Reference of the Inquiry outline the following areas for discussion:

(1) measures that could be taken to encourage new and existing businesses, industries and government authorities to establish operations in regional centres;

(2) the development of industrial land to support the economic base of regional centres;

(3) the most effective investments in infrastructure to encourage business and industry development in regional centres, and to support and encourage further population growth in regional centres;

(4) measures to promote strong social capital and high quality-of-life outcomes in growing regional centres; and

(5) examples from other jurisdictions where promotion of population growth in regional centres has successfully occurred.

The future value of investment in the Great South Coast region is estimated to be well over $6 billion (including investment opportunities as well as proposed and commenced investment). Planned projects are expected to generate over 4,000 construction jobs and 800 permanent positions in the Great south Coast.

Examples of major investments with significant impacts to be managed include: o Mortlake Power Plant (Origin Energy), $1billion, Construction start date 2009, 300 jobs during construction; o Macarthur Wind Farm (Meridian), $850m, Construction start date 2009, 300 jobs during construction; o Large number of applications for other Wind Farm Developments, circa $2 billion, 1,100 jobs during construction; o Blue Gums Harvesting, Start date late 2009, 600 + direct employment, 2 million tonnes per annum, direct expenditure in region $125 – $150 million; o Continuing expansion of the Dairy industry, accounts for one of the largest shares of total employment in the Great South Coast region, industry growing with ‘corporate dairies’ becoming increasingly common. o Otway Gas (Woodside), $1.1 billion, Construction completed 2007, now in steady- state production; and o Mineral Sands (Iluka), $300m, Commenced production 2007.

Major economic benefits are expected as a result of such large investments in the region. For example, significant local supply will be anticipated in areas such as concreting plants, specialised mechanics, tyre fitters, welders, drivers, accommodation etc. As the regional hub for retail, commercial, trades, education, health, and professional services, Warrnambool is well placed to maximise opportunities for existing and new local businesses. Permanent employees are also likely to choose Warrnambool as the place to locate due to a higher level of services and the urban lifestyle.

- Industrial Land

With specific reference to item 2 of the Terms of Reference above, Warrnambool has a distinct shortage in the availability of zoned industrial land. Council is acutely aware that the availability of industrial land must be a priority so that there is a suitable supply of ‘business ready’ land in advance of the major projects planned. Unless rectified, this will be perceived to be a major constraint to investment in the region and the opportunity for significant economic impacts to be maximised will be lost. Servicing these major investment projects will likely lead to a rise in industrial land permits, labour force and population growth. Timely

7 assistance is needed to provide for better integration between planning and economic development to ensure that these positive economic impacts are maximised in the region.

- Transport

Council recognise that the planned growth of the City of Warrnambool will be unsustainable without significant investment in the region’s transport infrastructure. Council, as part of a coalition of 17 councils from Mt Gambier to Geelong, is seeking to have the Princes Highway West (“PHW”) included in the Australian Government’s AusLink Transport Program. PHW is an integral part of the transport link serving the top tourism destination in Victoria outside of Melbourne (the Great Ocean Road route), and hinterland connections. The long term vision is for Princes Highway West to be duplicated between Geelong and Mt Gambier (across State borders).

Major upgrading of the PHW is critical infrastructure for supporting sustainable economic development and providing safe and secure access across South West Victoria and the South East of Australia. The infrastructure of PHW compares unfavourably to that of Princess Highway East (“PHE”). South West Victoria is the only significantly populated Victorian region without any AusLink road or rail routes. Warrnambool is the only regional city in Victoria not served by an AusLink road. Council will continue to advocate the PHW upgrade to gain Federal and State funding commitments and the declaration of the road within the AusLink Program.

The passenger rail and rail freight network is an important part of the economy of Warrnambool and the surrounding region. Further measures to ensure rail freight is a viable alternative to road freight over the longer term are required. Revitalising the rail freight network and funding intermodal freight hubs, while upgrading and standardising rail lines and creating competitive lease arrangements are critical to securing the future of rail freight in the region. Passenger rail improvements for the Warrnambool – Melbourne service are long overdue in the areas of timetabling and the introduction of improved rolling stock. The Warrnambool – Melbourne passenger rail line is Victoria’s second busiest long-distance train service with passenger numbers continuously rising. Whilst there have been significant increases in train services for those regional centres within the “fast train envelope”, there have been no additional services for the Warrnambool line.

Warrnambool is a major destination for people travelling along tourist routes including the Great Ocean Road, Princes Highway and the Melbourne-Warrnambool railway. One area that would deliver significant benefits for tourism (and business) in the region would be a regular air passenger service to Warrnambool. Currently, the Warrnambool Airport has no commercial passenger services, unlike some similar sized regional cities. Council anticipates a future with regular passenger services into Warrnambool from Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, primarily due to the proximity to the Great Ocean Road.

- Further Comment

To provide further context to the Terms of Reference of this inquiry, the following comments are offered. We argue that provincial Victoria is comprised of distinct sub-regions that require individual ‘regional-scale’ consideration, rather than simple comparisons. Overall, provincial Victoria is also optimistic about the future and is likely to have a higher or increasing standard of liveability compared to Greater Melbourne, as road congestion, public transport issues and housing costs increase and continue to expand the urban footprint of the metropolis. Conversely, regional areas are increasingly calling for more regional-scale planning and cooperation across municipal boundaries as regional migration and growth changes the pattern of settlement across the State.

Although remote farming areas are reducing in population density, this is related to the decreasing needs for permanent on-site labour in corporate agriculture, and not necessarily from an exodus of capital, people and ‘liveability’. In contrast, many regional areas are now

8 experiencing population growth and a sense of vitality. Population dynamics are simply changing and the patterns of settlement and liveability are following these trends.

We have also noticed an expanding commuter hinterland of about a 50 km radius around our city. Commuter towns in this ring are now seeing the re-emergence of schools and public buildings, progress committees and street beautification programs. Their new and emboldened existing residents are demanding footpaths, street trees, the restoration or establishment of memorials, bus links and neighbourhood character and heritage planning controls. As a consequence, these small towns are also attracting arts projects, teachers, walking school buses and investment in new housing, renovations and revegetation schemes. We are also aware that most other regional areas are also experiencing similar trends, with increasing settlement densities and relatively modest, but increasing population growth. The ‘small town’ is very much alive and has a great future in regional Victoria.

The impact of migration and the modest reversal of decline in regional areas cannot be seen purely in comparison to Melbourne’s growth rate of 1,500 migrants per week! These numbers are likely to be moving into areas with very questionable liveability, such as car-dependant fringe suburbs, or high-rise towers, with no public services or where there is no sense of social responsibility. In contrast, the lower numbers in regional Victoria may actually be the cause for our higher standards of liveability. Regional figures are also likely to be much more sustainable in social and environmental terms. The metro figures are actually likely to pose a serious risk to Melbourne’s future prosperity, not to mention for the energy and resource needs of the State. Decentralisation may need to become a much more important policy direction for the State Government if it wishes to prevent major environmental and social problems from emerging.

Melbourne’s growth also has a direct impact on regional liveability, by its need for new energy sources, such as wind turbines built near rural communities, and second dwellings for city residents seeking spiritual and social contact in idealized rural villages (such as Daylesford and Port Fairy for example). We also note that Melbourne people generally have an appallingly uninformed perspective of Victoria beyond the suburban fringe and are not likely to migrate to regional areas they perceive as ‘cultural backwaters’. This poses a challenge for a planned decentralization strategy and an issue that must be addressed by the provision of social infrastructure, arts support and through to the tourism and migration promotional programs.

Despite the Melbourne – State divide, economic and cultural vitality appears to be reclaiming towns with high quality amenity and where there is an identity informed by a unique cultural heritage, or where there is the framework of a service base. Young families and Empty Nesters are also colonizing and revitalizing small rural hamlets and investing new energy for economic and social investment into regional Victoria. For Warrnambool, this means that satellite settlements such as Koroit, Woodford and Grassmere are experiencing relatively phenomenal growth of a scale that has not been seen since the Post War Boom or the Gold Rush. In regional Victoria small numbers of migrants can have a major social impact. For instance, we are also seeing progressive community leaders migrating into small communities and adding to the sense of optimism and vitality. As few as 10 new migrants into towns the size of Mortlake or Camperdown can have an enormous impact, bringing in new money, skills, energy and ideas.

We are also seeing the early period of a major wave of migration of Empty Nesters looking for green landscapes, mild weather and a beautiful and walkable urban form. Rather than being a burden on our services, at the current time this demographic is a much undervalued resource of highly skilled and well-resourced migrants. We are hearing that for this group, a sense of history is an important reason for migration and a reason for their choice of older inner town heritage areas. Otherwise, they are seeking locations near the coast or rivers.

The Warrnambool experience is that our city is seen as a place where a life, family and work balance can be achieved. Increasingly, employment options are improving and health,

9 education and business opportunities are developing greater levels of complexity. With the return of young creative professionals the expectations and possibilities for amenity and intellectual stimulation are increasing. These factors increase liveability for the entire South West region and support the investment in social infrastructure. Even in very small numbers creative citizens can have an enormous influence on a community and help to attract and influence similarly progressive attitudes. Examples include the ‘F Group’ of young contemporary artists in Warrnambool, and numerous small bands of environmental and social activists working vigorously to create and enhance social attitudes and to improve the quality of the public realm. Public art is emerging in reclaimed and revegetated public space along the Merri River in Warrnambool simply because of the drive and creativity of our groups, particularly from the Merrivale and South Warrnambool Community Groups These actions are then in-turn attracting more creative activity and bringing in more like-minded residents to these precincts. This activism is not unique to township size, with even the most remote and small communities having strong networks of creative citizenry.

In contrast, Melbourne’s capacity probably peaked 50 years ago, with the city now facing a future of traffic congestion, car dependence and reduced liveability. If liveability is to be encouraged in Victoria (including in Melbourne) we will need to embrace a future that consists of a network of mid-sized regional cities with high quality rail connections and a hinterland of well planned commuter satellite towns and villages. These settlements are already emerging from the grassroots level as agriculture becomes increasingly corporatized and less labour dependant, and as new migrants, returnees and young families reinvigorate regional Victoria.

As a result of the Inquiry into Enhancing Liveability in Victoria by the Victorian Competition & Efficiency Commission, a group of community representatives offered these comments on regional liveability to staff at Council that suggest responses to this study’s Terms of Reference:

ƒ High quality rail transport to and from the capital is essential for Warrnambool’s educational sector, professional business sector and the city’s cultural vitality. More professionals would be attracted to permanently reside in the South West if the rail network was further improved and more reliable. Increasingly professionals are able to split their working time between the regions and metro offices and good rail based transport would support this emerging regional commuter network. The growth of Geelong will further support professional employment and the need for regional commuting along the South West transport corridor;

ƒ Public transport and ‘active’ transport are increasingly important issues, and also growing in importance across the entire state. Being able to walk and ride across the city is a major contributing element to the attractiveness of the city and enhance the public’s sense of liveability;

ƒ Warrnambool is the regional service centre for the South West and the Barwon-South West State administrative area does not cope well with the bi-polar split with Geelong. The growth of the Geelong region means that administrative resources and attention are diluted before they reach Warrnambool. An administrative base in the Warrnambool would have a major impact on improving lobbying capacity, dealing with planning bottlenecks and for promoting confidence for investment;

ƒ Warrnambool's growth and liveability is associated with its natural wealth and self- confident 'driven' citizens;

ƒ Regardless of any State development support Warrnambool is continuing to grow because of its regional service role and natural advantages. The city is very close to achieving a 'critical mass' of population. This could be around 40-45,000 people. This critical mass will accentuate inward migration and retention of creative professionals and will aid development of even higher levels of self-dependence for the region. Many professional businesses would then see the city as a viable base for investment.

10 The wider regional population will benefit from this growth because of improved services and a growing professional base;

ƒ University, health and cultural infrastructure will benefit from achieving a critical mass and help further attract young creative professionals to diversify and strengthen the success of the region. The university’s location has the potential to further support the incubation of creative and innovative businesses and a technology park model linked to the university could stimulate demand;

ƒ It is essential that good planning ensures that the critical population mass is contained and well managed. Too much development and growth in the wrong forms will have an adverse impact on liveability. Liveability can be lost very quickly if development is misguided. The network of satellite regional villages needs to be carefully planned to sustain future settlement and balance the impacts on food production and amenity;

ƒ Social and cultural infrastructure are vital components of the services required to attract and retain creative professionals. These facilities include the Art Gallery and Performing Arts Centre. A high quality regional museum would also further enhance links with the local university and improve the professionalism and resilience of the tourism sector;

ƒ Regional marketing needs to directly address the creative younger mid age demographic (eg. the 'Fitzroy' demographic) through the promotion of the region’s arts, cultural and environmental advantages. Although better than many other regional areas, the gap in this demographic is a weakness in our population mix. Improving the ‘cool factor’ of the city is an important way to boost regional confidence and to attract ‘young creatives’. For instance, many surfers and artists are drawn to the region and perhaps surprisingly are well represented in the professional sector. The potential to draw more of these migrants could stimulate permanent population growth and innovative industries. For instance, leading surf industry designers that are internationally renowned originate from the region and this link is not well recognised in the broader community; and

ƒ The South West is a community with shared regional interests and cooperation is essential to lobbying for resources, to create efficiencies and to overcome disadvantages of long commuting distances. These networks could be strengthened by the design of organisational relationships.

4. Conclusion

Regional Victoria requires a concerted decentralisation effort into areas that can sustainably support population growth. The liveability of provincial Victoria and Melbourne are also intertwined and this needs recognition at the highest levels of government. Melbourne cannot regain its past standards of liveability without understanding its relationship to the rest of Victoria and that metropolitan capacity has limitations.

As an alternative to an ever increasing urban footprint, regional areas have to be actively planned to decentralise State growth across a series of mid-sized regional centres. In this way, each region can attract professional jobs, educational and health services and a creative intellectual scene that can stimulate professional migration.

Melbourne 2030 has already started to recognize the need for a networked strategy for regional interconnection, but the strategy does not go far enough and effectively stops major investment at the edge of the Transit City network. To improve on this situation, an interconnected regional strategy needs to be developed for each regional area, in the South West, West, Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Bannock, Woodford, Natimuk, Tarrington, Deans Marsh, etc. are all small towns that offer high liveability and there are literally

11 hundreds of similar towns across Victoria with existing infrastructure that could be developed by coordinated regional planning and public transport networks to regional centres.

The reason why investment and migration in small country towns and regional Victoria is occurring is because people crave a sense of connection to the natural world and to each other. This trend is increasing from grassroots demand, but should be more actively planned and supported by State-wide planning and investment. Like many regional cities, Warrnambool is well-placed to grow as a ‘liveable’ alternative to Melbourne. The time is right for State-wide strategic planning that actively plans for a decentralised future. It will be increasingly essential for the liveability of both Melbourne and provincial Victoria that future planning efforts address the need to strategically decentralise the urban footprint of the State into a series of mid-sized regional cities connected by a high quality rail and public transport system.

In summary, the main investment areas for promoting Warrnambool as a regional city of the future could include the following:

ƒ Fast track planning for essential industrial and residential land supply;

ƒ Investment upgrades to the regional road and train network (passenger and rail freight) to improve reliability, capacity and travel times to and from the capital;

ƒ Funding to complete the redevelopment of the Warrnambool Campus of South West Healthcare. South West Healthcare provides an extensive range of services not only to Warrnambool but to the broader South West catchment and therefore plays a pivotal role in the health, social and economic wellbeing of the broader community;

ƒ The location of a standalone regional administrative base located in Warrnambool to provide for government services to the entire South West region;

ƒ The promotion of cultural life and vitality in regional areas to attract the ‘cool’ creative classes that lead wider market trends. This includes support for major upgrades in social infrastructure to foster the creative class and to promote wider regional appeal and migration. The creative classes lead the way for mainstream migration and business investment. They are also more prone to follow lifestyle destinations and seek new frontiers for innovation;

ƒ Development initiatives could include a major high quality museum with university connections to support professional tourism, cultural growth and academic research; a major upgrade of the regional Performing Arts Centre, library and Art Gallery; funding for regional arts development and cultural activities to promote the region as a vibrant alternative to the capital city; and promotion of graphic design and arts based intellectual businesses. (Examples of creative towns and cities include Torquay, Natimuk, Brighton UK, Brisbane, Bern and Zurich);

ƒ A technology park linked to the local university campus with a series of decentralised public offices to incubate private investment and business confidence;

ƒ A major investment in high quality urban and landscape design to provide an international standard township setting for quality architecture, investment and cultural tourism;

ƒ Expansion of the facilities, staffing and role of the regional university to promote a society with a ‘learning’ culture;

ƒ Conference facilities and ‘high end’ accommodation for major events and professional gatherings. Promotion of international events in regional settings;

12 ƒ Promotion of value adding regional produce and the support for small boutique regional producers to support the regional hospitality and tourism sectors;

ƒ Designing governance arrangements that promote regional independence, and cultural and financial resilience. Municipal boundaries may need to reflect the requirement for regional scale planning into larger ‘greater city’ areas; and

ƒ Planning for a strategic growth network on a State-wide basis for a series of mid- sized regional cities, beyond the M2030 Transit City network.

These examples reinforce many of the best-practice examples of regional development and how cities internationally are reinventing themselves into knowledge-based economies. Cultural heritage, identity and intellectual culture are providing the base for the successful cities and regions of the 21st century. We believe that Warrnambool is well positioned to support a healthy professional employment base and to provide a capital city function for the South West of Victoria.

We thank the Rural and Regional Committee for the opportunity to contribute to the Inquiry and we look forward to reading the final report.

Bart Gane Andrew Paton

Strategic Planning Business Development

City Growth Directorate City Growth Directorate

Warrnambool City Council Warrnambool City Council [email protected] [email protected]

(03) 5559 4951 (03) 5559 4923

13