Assessment of CARB's Zero-Emission Vehicle Programs Per Senate Bill
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Assessment of CARB’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Programs Per Senate Bill 498 July 2020 This page intentionally left blank. This report can be viewed at: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/legislatively-mandated-reports. To order a hard copy of this report, please contact David Ernest García, Ph. D., Legislative Director, at (916) 322-8520 or [email protected] This document has been reviewed by the staff of the California Air Resources Board and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the California Air Resources Board, nor does the mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This page intentionally left blank. July 23, 2020 Ms. Erika Contreras Secretary of the Senate State Capitol, Room 3044 Sacramento, California 95814 Ms. Diane Boyer-Vine Legislative Counsel Office of Legislative Counsel 925 L Street, Suite 900 Sacramento, California 95814 [email protected] Dear Ms. Contreras and Ms. Boyer-Vine: Pursuant to the provisions required by Health and Safety Code section 43018.8, enclosed is a copy of the report to the Legislature entitled, Assessment of CARB’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Programs Per Senate Bill 498. This report can be viewed at http://ww2.arb.ca.gov/legislatively-mandated-reports. We have also enclosed a one-page executive summary, as required by statute. In this report, California Air Resources Board (CARB) staff reviews its programs that affect the adoption of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including identifying each program’s goals and status in meeting those goals, performing a cost-benefit analysis where data are available, and comparing CARB’s ZEV programs with those of other jurisdictions. Additionally, pursuant SB 498 (Skinner, Chapter 628, Statutes of 2017), CARB provides policy recommendations for increasing the use of ZEVs in the State, as well as recommendations for vehicle fleet operators to increase the use of ZEVs. The review reflected in the report was conducted throughout 2018 and 2019, considered by the CARB Board in January 2020, and then updated in the immediate months following the Board meeting. We acknowledge that the world is experiencing different times than when these policy recommendations were drafted. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting economic downturn and associated State budget challenges, and the transformative conversations we are seeing around racial injustice all present new challenges and opportunities. We have re-reviewed these recommendations in light of these new circumstances and affirm that they remain valid and can support the State on its path to recovery. However, we also acknowledge that Ms. Erika Contreras Ms. Diane Boyer-Vine July 23, 2020 fulfilling some of the recommendations may be difficult in the near-term given the State’s budget challenges. Should you have any questions or need further assistance, please contact David Ernest García, Ph.D., Legislative Director, at (916) 322-8520 or [email protected]. Sincerely, Mary D. Nichols Chair Enclosures cc: See next page. Ms. Erika Contreras Ms. Diane Boyer-Vine July 23, 2020 cc: Ms. Sue Parker Assistant Chief Clerk of the Assembly State Capitol, Room 3196 Sacramento, California 95814 [email protected] The Honorable Nancy Skinner California State Senate State Capitol, Room 5094 Sacramento, California 95814 Ms. Ana Matosantos Cabinet Secretary Office of Governor Gavin Newsom State Capitol, First Floor Sacramento, California 95814 Mr. Gabriel Petek Legislative Analyst’s Office 925 L Street, Suite 1000 Sacramento, California 95814 Ms. Jolie Onodera Legislative Director Department of Finance State Capitol, Room 1145 Sacramento, California 95814 Mr. Greg Lucas State Librarian California State Library Stanley Mosk Library & Courts Building PO Box 942837 Sacramento, California 94237-001 David Ernest García, Ph.D. Legislative Director Table of Contents ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................... i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ iii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: WHY ZERO-EMISSION VEHICLES ARE IMPORTANT ..................... 3 CHAPTER 3: STATE OF THE ZEV MARKET ........................................................... 7 CHAPTER 4: OVERVIEW OF CARB’S ZERO-EMISSION VEHICLE PROGRAMS 10 CHAPTER 5: COSTS AND BENEFITS OF CARB’S ZEV PROGRAMS ................. 34 CHAPTER 6: COMPARISON WITH OTHER STATES’ AND COUNTRIES’ PROGRAMS ............................................................................................................ 61 CHAPTER 7: LESSONS LEARNED ........................................................................ 82 CHAPTER 8: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO ACCELERATE ZEV ADOPTION AND IMPROVE ZEV PROGRAMS ..................................................... 98 CHAPTER 9: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FLEETS TO INCREASE ZEVS ........ 117 APPENDICES Appendix A: Text of SB 498 Appendix B: CARB’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Programs Appendix C: Quantification Methodologies Appendix D: California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle Programs ACRONYMS AB – Assembly Bill BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle BEVx – Battery Electric Vehicle with range extender CARB – California Air Resources Board or Board CO2 – Carbon dioxide CO2e – Carbon dioxide equivalent CVRP – Clean Vehicle Rebate Project DCFC – Direct Current Fast Charger DPM – Diesel Particulate Matter ePTO – electric Power TakeOff eVMT – electric Vehicle Miles Traveled EVSE – Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment EVSP – Electric Vehicle Service Provider FCEV – Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle FPL – Federal Poverty Level FY – Fiscal Year GHG – Greenhouse Gas HVIP – Hybrid and Zero-Emission Voucher Incentive Program kWh – kilowatt hour LCFS – Low Carbon Fuel Standard i NOx – Nitrogen oxides PHEV – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PM 2.5 – Particulate Matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers or fine particulate matter ROG – Reactive Organic Gases SB – Senate Bill TRU – Transport Refrigeration Unit TNC – Transportation Network Company VMT – Vehicle Miles Traveled ZEV – Zero-Emission Vehicle ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Senate Bill (SB) 498 (Skinner, Chapter 628, Statutes of 2017) directs the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to review its programs that affect the adoption of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including identifying each program’s goals and status in meeting those goals, performing a cost-benefit analysis, and comparing CARB’s ZEV programs with those of other jurisdictions. SB 498 also directs CARB to make policy recommendations for increasing the use of ZEVs in the State, and recommendations for vehicle fleet operators to increase the use of ZEVs. This report responds to that legislative direction. Transitioning the transportation sector to zero-emission technology is critical to achieving California’s public health protection goals, minimizing air pollution exposure, and mitigating climate change impacts.1 The transportation sector is responsible for the vast majority of the State’s emissions of toxic diesel particulate matter and regional 1 smog-forming oxides of nitrogen (NOX), and is the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.2 Over 12 million Californians breathe unhealthy air, and several areas of the State are still in non-attainment for ozone. Exposure to ozone and particulate matter leads to a range of respiratory and cardiovascular health impacts, including exacerbations of asthma and heart disease, and is estimated to contribute to approximately 7,500 premature deaths in California, and millions globally, each year.3 While significant improvements have been made in both the South Coast Air Basin and the San Joaquin Valley, these areas still represent the greatest challenges to meeting our air quality goals. California is already experiencing significant and widespread impacts on its economy and environment as a result of climate change, such as more severe and frequent heat waves, droughts, flooding, sea-level rise, and wildfires, and these are expected to worsen.4 California has sensible and far reaching goals to mitigate these impacts– including a reduction of Statewide GHG emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 1 CARB, 2016. Mobile Source Strategy, https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2016sip/2016mobsrc.pdf. 2 CARB, 2019. 2019 Edition, California Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory: 2000 – 2017, https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inventory_trends_00-16.pdf. 3 CARB, 2017. Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan, https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2016sip/rev2016statesip.pdf. 4 Bedsworth et al., 2018. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Statewide Summary Report. http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/. iii 20305 and carbon neutrality by 20456–and meeting those goals will require that the transportation sector transforms to zero-emission technology rapidly. California’s Mobile Source Strategy,1 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan,7 and Scoping Plan8 lay out the measures needed to put California on track to attain the national ambient air quality standards, reduce air pollution-related health impacts, and meet our climate goals. These plans underscore the fact that penetration of ZEV technology throughout the transportation sector is critical. Currently, California’s efforts