Research and Development Department Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

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THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

President’s Message The Size and Growth of the Economy of Lahore

It is a matter of immense pride for me to present before you the much awaited report “The Size and Growth of the Economy of Lahore”. Lahore holds paramount importance for the economy of Pakistan and it is the main contributor of economic growth. The GDP growth of Lahore Mr. Abdul Basit contributes to the GDP growth of Punjab which in-turn being the largest province contributes to the GDP growth of Pakistan. These facts can be corroborated by looking at the average annual GDP growth rate of Lahore from 2010-11 to 2014-15 i.e. 6.7%. This was higher than the growth rate of Punjab (5.0%) which was in turn higher than the growth of Pakistan (3.9%). Since the Government statistical agencies that are responsible for the compilation of income accounts do not produce city-wise data, there was a dire need to assess the economic contribution of the city of Lahore. The calculation of the GDP of Lahore and other dynamics about the structure of the city’s economy in this report would help the Government to transform the city into an engine of economic growth. It would help the Government in managing the city’s infrastructure, consumption, services, investment and environment. I sincerely hope that this commendable effort of the Director Research and Development Department of LCCI would go a long way in promoting trade, investment and tourism in this magnificent city. Furthermore, I hope that it would encourage other Chambers of Commerce in the country to undertake similar studies about the economy of their cities, paving the way for economic development of the country.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Message from Senior Vice President This publica�on on the “Size and Growth of the Economy of Lahore” by the Director Research and Development Department of Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry is a commendable eﬀort to apprise the worthy members about the structure of Lahore’s economy and dynamics of its growth. The calculation of Lahore’s GDP is impera�ve as the city is included in the emerging 400 middle weight ci�es that will contribute 35% of the global GDP Amjad Ali Jawa growth by 2025. I hope this publica�on will pave the way for the members of LCCI to reap economic beneﬁts from the emerging trends in the economy of the city

Vice President’s Message Although the economy of Pakistan is growing at a steady rate but a lot of progress s�ll needs to be made in enhancing the exports and a�rac�ng sizeable foreign investment in the country. Lahore can be an eﬀec�ve catalyst in s�mula�ng exports and investment in the country as the share of Lahore in Pakistan’s Electricity, Gas Distribu�on and Water Supply Value Added was 8.3% in 2014-15 as compared to 15% in 2010-11. Although a considerable amount of Muhammad Nasir Hameed Khan economic data is available at the country level, there is a need to dissect the economy and analyze the city-wise contribu�ons to the income accounts. This report is an important step in this regard as it would help the policy makers in iden�fying the areas in Lahore’s economy that are lagging behind and plugging the loopholes in the structure of the city’s economy and enhance its contribu�on to the na�onal economy in terms of exports and investment.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Convener’s Message Standing Commi�ee (Research and Development)

This research report whose main objec�ve is to ascertain Lahore’s contribu�on in the na�onal economy is the ﬁrst of its kind and helps to answer some key

Almas Hyder ques�ons regarding the city’s economy. The foremost contribu�on of this report is that in addi�on to the calcula�on of GDP, it will help to iden�fy the sectors of Lahore’s economy that have performed be�er than the na�onal economy and the ones which are lagging behind. As a result it will help to determine if Lahore is leading the provincial economy in the growth process. The report highlights that the commodity producing sector of manufacturing has shown low average annual growth rate (5.4%) from 2010- 11 to 2014-15 as most of the growth in Lahore in this period has been driven by the services sector (7.7%). It is a cause of concern as Lahore’s Industrial sector depends mostly on manufacturing (73.4% share in Industrial Sector) followed by construc�on (share of 18.2% in Industrial Sector). This also has serious policy implica�ons for the Government as it needs to devise an industrial policy which can s�mulate growth in the manufacturing sector of the city. Similarly, as implied in the report, Government needs a strategy to address the issue of low growth in wholesale and retail sector of the city. Lastly, I would like to congratulate the Director Research and Development Department on this tremendous eﬀort and hope that this report would be updated on regular basis

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Preface

In Pakistan, the size of the na�onal economy is oﬃcially measured by the Federal Bureau of Sta�s�cs. In today's fast changing world, ci�es compete with each other for a�rac�ng business. They are the level at which the ease of doing business is judged. This makes the measurement of the size of the economy of ci�es extremely important. In this document, the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry has taken the lead to ascertain the GDP of Lahore. The just published results of Census 2017 suggest how important it has become to study city economies in their own right. Lahore remains, as it was in the Census 1998, the second largest city of Pakistan. More important, it is the only city of Pakistan whose popula�on has more than doubled in the intercensal period, from 5,143,495 to 11,126,285. With an urban popula�on growth of 4.02 per cent, the Lahore district is now 99 per cent urban. This, among other things, explains the predominance of the services sector shown in our study.

During the exercise, we faced all the difficul�es that any pioneering research effort faces. a number of these difficul�es were sorted out with the valuable assistance provided by a young and buddying researcher Wasim Salem, a PhD candidate at the Pakistan Ins�tute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Discussions with Dr Pervez Tahir, former Chief Economist of Pakistan, were helpful in clarifying a number of kno�y issues of na�onal accoun�ng. The study was peer-reviewed by two eminent researchers, Dr Sarmad Kawaja and Dr Qaiser Bengali. The contribu�on by them is gratefully acknowledged. The original inspira�on for this research comes from the works of Dr Hafiz A. Pasha. We owe a debt of gra�tude to all of them. But for the encouragement provided by the leadership of the LCCI, this study would not have seen the light of the day. Needless to say, the responsibility for the views expressed here is en�rely that of the author.

Nadia Tahir PhD (GCUL), Postdoc (Cambridge) Director Research and Development

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Contents President’s Message 2 Message from Senior Vice President 3 Vice President’s Message 3 Convener’s Message 4 Preface 5 List of Acronyms 7 Overview 8 Chapter 1: Introduction 12 Chapter 2: The Size of the Economy of Lahore 18 Chapter 3: Economic Growth of Lahore and Punjab 32 References 37 Technical Annexure 40 Statistical Annexure 58

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

List of Abbreviations: ASYB: Agricultural Statistics Year Book ASYBD: Agricultural Statistics Year Book District level BP: Basic Prices CMID: Census of Manufacturing Industry District report FBR: Federal Board of Revenue FBRYB: Federal Board of Revenue Year Book GDP: Gross Domestic Product GRP: Gross Regional Product GVA: Gross Value Added HIES: Household Income and Expenditure Survey HSD: High Speed Diesel IPP: Institute of Public Policy IPR: Institute of Public Reforms LC: Livestock Census data LFS: Labour Force Survey LSM: Large Scale Manufacturing LTU: Large Tax Unit OCAC: Oil Companies Advisory Committee PBS: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PDS: Pakistan Statistics Department PES: Pakistan Economic Survey POL: Pakistan Oilfield Limited PSLMS: Pakistan Social Living Standard measurement Survey PTA: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority RTO: Regional Tax Office SBP: State Bank of Pakistan SSM: Small Scale Manufacturing

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Overview

The size and growth of an economy is measured by estimating its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This can be the global economy, national economy or sub-national economy. Provinces, regions and cities fall in the sub-national category. In Pakistan, the national GDP has been estimated officially since the 1950s by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Since the 1990s, private researchers and donors have constructed provincial GDPs. Lahore is included in the emerging 440 middleweight cities that will contribute 35 per cent of global GDP growth by 2025.1 To transform from projected to real engines of growth, these cities will have to effectively manage their environment, infrastructure, investment, consumption and services to be able to compete and forge ahead. Towards this end, the most important first step is to understand the present structure of the economy and the likely dynamics of growth. This is not possible without constructing a GDP series. The present study seeks to fulfill this requirement for Lahore. With economies of scale and agglomeration, a high growth of Lahore will contribute to high growth of Punjab and a high growth of Punjab will lead to a high growth of Pakistan.

The primary objective of this study is to arrive at an estimate of Lahore’s GDP. Secondly, the study attempts to ascertain the contribution of the economy of Lahore to the economy of Punjab and the national economy.

Ideally, the official statistics agencies like the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics or the Punjab Bureau of Statistics should compile production and income accounts independently for the major cities and districts. Until then, the only possible approach is to break up national data using secondary sources. The starting point is the national GDP of 2010-11 and the end point is the national GDP of 2014-15. First we ask how much of the national GDP can be attributed to Punjab. On the basis of appropriate official datasets,

1 McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, June 2012

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

suitable allocators are determined and applied to18 subsectors to arrive at the share of Punjab in the na�onal value added in each subsector. An aggrega�on of the results in each case gives the GDP of Punjab.

Next, we repeat the same exercise to ﬁnd the share of Lahore in Punjab’s value added in each subsector and sum it up to arrive at the GDP of Lahore. The key ﬁndings are given in the following paragraphs.

In 2010-11, Lahore’s GDP was 17.7 per cent of the Punjab GDP and 10.4 per cent of the Pakistan GDP. By 2014-15, these shares increased to 18.9 per cent and 11.5 per cent. In constant prices of 2005-06, the absolute size of the Lahore GDP was Rs 945.7 billion in 2010-11. By 2014-15, it increased to Rs 1.23 trillion. The annual growth rate for the period was 6.7 per cent. This was higher than the growth rate of Pakistan (3.9 per cent) and Punjab (5 per cent) for the same period. It is evident that the growth of Lahore leads the growth of Punjab.

Ci�es are about people, whose movement is not in their control. The city government can deﬁne urban limits, but the people vote with their feet to decide where the city begins and where it ends. A thriving city generally has posi�ve in-migra�on. The people demand transport, trade outlets, housing, ﬁnancial services, educa�on and health. Like all major ci�es, the largest contribu�on to Lahore’s GDP is made by the services sector. It is also the highest growing sector. In 2010-11, the share of services was 78.2 per cent. The share increased further to 81 per cent in 2014-15. During this period, the annual average growth rate was 7.7 per cent. The services sector growth itself was dominated by housing services (12.3 per cent) and transport, storage & communica�ons (9.3 per cent). Transport, storage & communica�ons is the largest subsector of the services sector (37.1 per cent), followed by wholesale and retail trade (19.6 per cent) and housing services (16.5) per cent. Although the second largest subsector in the services, the annual growth of the wholesale and retail trade was only 0.9 per cent. This is directly related to the low growth of the commodity producing sectors of agriculture and manufacturing.

Industry is the second largest sector of the Lahore economy. Between 2010-11 and 2014-15, its share has declined from 16.9 per cent to 14.9 per cent. While manufacturing was the largest subsector in 2014-15 with a share of 73.4 per cent, its growth was only 5.4 per cent, although higher than Punjab and Pakistan. The highest growing sector was construc�on with a growth rate of 12.9 per cent. Its share in the industrial sector (18.2 per cent) is the second highest. The high growth is related to the high growth of housing services and the heavy public sector investment in infrastructure.

There is very li�le agriculture in Lahore and the largest contribu�on to agriculture sector comes from livestock subsector. While Punjab is the largest contributor to the na�onal value added in in the four major crops, the contribu�on of Lahore is only half a per cent. It is slightly above one per cent in the case of

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE vegetables and fruits, indicating that the demand for perishables is also catered for locally. In the national value added in the livestock subsector, Lahore’s share is higher at 3.6 per cent. Local dairy and slaughtering industry obtain raw material locally as well. The national value added in slaughtering, defined as part of the industrial sector, received a share of 4.1 per cent from Lahore. On the whole, 2.3 per cent of the national value added and 3.7 per cent of Punjab’s value added in agriculture is produced by Lahore. The agricultural economy of Lahore is essentially a livestock economy, with a share as large as 89 per cent. This is demonstrated by the pattern of growth as well. Between 2010-11 and 2014-15, the cropping subsector posted a negative growth of 4.3 per cent per annum compared to a positive growth of 3.1 per cent in the livestock subsector. The higher growth of livestock enabled Lahore to show a positive overall agricultural growth of 2.2 per cent per annum. Indeed, livestock performance of Lahore was far better than the rest of Punjab.

In closing this overview, it can be said that the economy of Lahore, like any vibrant urban centre, is largely services-oriented. The manufacturing sector is small and its share is declining. Livestock is the overwhelming economic activity in the agriculture sector, occupying the third place.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

1.1 PRELIMINARY REMARKS The objec�ve of this report is to ascertain the contribu�on of the economy of Lahore in the na�onal economy and the economy of Punjab. First of its kind, this research ﬁnds the sectoral contribu�on of Lahore in the na�onal and provincial economy. This will help answer a number of key ques�ons: Has Lahore led the provincial economy in the growth process? Has Punjab’s growth led the na�onal economy? In which sectors has the Lahore economy performed be�er vis-à-vis the rest of Punjab? In the process of estima�on, the report also updates the exis�ng es�mates of the size, sectoral distribu�on and growth of the economy of Punjab. This will be helpful in a number of important ways. Signiﬁcantly, the exercise will check the reliability of previous es�mates of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) of Punjab up to 2010-11 by the IPP [2012] and the IPR [2015].

The report is organized as follows. Chapter 1 gives a brief descrip�on of the methodology for the construc�on of sub-na�onal income accounts, with a more detailed statement in the Technical Appendix. Chapter 2 presents es�mates of the value added by various sectors for the economies of Lahore and Punjab. Chapter 3 gives a comparison of the overall growth rate of Lahore with the diﬀerent regions of Pakistan from 2010-11 to 2014-15.

1.2. METHODOLOGY FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF SUBNATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS We have used a two-step procedure to es�mate the size of Lahore’s economy in the na�onal and the provincial economies. In stage one, a number of regional allocators have been used to distribute the value added between Punjab and the rest of Pakistan. These are listed in Table 1 along with the data sources. Major reliance has been placed on the oﬃcial data sources like the Punjab Development Sta�s�cs (PDS) and the Pakistan Economic Survey (PES). Fortunately, the results of two important surveys, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2014-15 and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2015-16 have been released by the Pakistan Bureau of Sta�s�cs (PBS). These surveys facilitate the determina�on of trends in factor incomes and consump�on at the na�onal and provincial levels.

Similarly, in stage two, a number of regional allocators are used to distribute the value added between Lahore and the rest of Punjab. These are also listed in Table 1.1 along with the data sources. These are oﬃcial data sources like the PDS and the yearbooks of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Most important, the Pakistan Social Living Standard Measurement Survey (PSLMS), published by PBS, is a representa�ve survey at district level and provides detailed informa�on on income and employment

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE trends. Fortunately, the PSLMS is available for 2010-11 and for 2014-15, the period of this study. The data for missing years is interpolated.

Chart 1.1 gives schematic diagram of the study. The estimates of Punjab and the rest of Pakistan are derived from the estimates of Pakistan. The estimates of Punjab so derived form the basis of deriving the estimates for Lahore and the rest of Punjab.

Chart 1.1: Schematic Diagram of the Study

Pakistan

Punjab Rest of Pakistan

Lahore Rest of Punjab

In the literature, there are three standard approaches to the estimation of value added in a sector/subsector. A detailed description of each of these approaches is given in the Technical Appendix. Specifically, the approaches are:

1) Output/product approach

2) Factor incomes approach

3) Expenditure approach.

The first, i.e. output approach, has been used in the case of important crops, other crops, livestock & fishing and slaughtering.

The second, i.e. income approach, involves aggregation of incomes accruing to different factors of production like labour, capital and land. This approach is used for the following large-scale manufacturing, electricity and gas, transport and communications, small-scale manufacturing, general government services and other private services.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

The third approach is the expenditure approach, which is the basis of the value added in the following sub-sectors: construc�on, wholesale and retail trade, housing services, ﬁnance & insurance.

There are some significant limita�ons to the quan�fica�on of the size of a sub-na�onal economy, which must be noted here to exercise cau�on in the interpreta�on of results. First, par�cularly at the intra- provincial level, where migra�on and trade flows are more frequent and mobile than across countries, these es�mates generally ignore the flows of factor incomes between regions of a country. These are likely to be large depending upon the level and pa�ern both of internal and interna�onal migra�on. In the case of Punjab, it is likely that there is a net transfer of incomes out of Lahore, but It is not known in the absence of relevant data, which is hard to collect.

Second, there is the problem of regional alloca�on of lumpy public goods and services at the na�onal level. Also, there are services provided by federal en�tles like the State Bank of Pakistan and Pakistan Railways where regional alloca�on of value added is diﬃcult due to the problem of origin and service provision. In such cases, use of tax data may lead to underes�ma�on of the size and quan�ﬁca�on of the services.

Third, we use various tax bases for sizing up the economic ac�vity at the provincial and district levels. The FBR has a rich database on revenue collec�ons at the collectorate and commissionerate levels. These are aggregated to arrive at provincial totals. We have used this database as a cross-check on the provincial shares arrived at by the use of the more con ven�onal allocators.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 1.1 Regional Allocations for Diﬀerent Sectors / Sub-Sectors Agriculture, Industry and Services

Sec�on / Sub-Sector Provincial Allocators Data Sources* District Allocators Data sources

AGRICULTURE

Important Crops Share in Output of – crops ASYB Share in Output of – crops ASYBD

Other Crops Share in Output of – crops ASYB Share in Output of – crops ASYBD

Co�on Ginning Share in Output of Co�on ASYB Share in Output of Co�on ASYBD

Livestock Share in Consump�on Expenditure HIES Share in Animal Slaughtered, Milk and Poultry produc�on PDS, LC

Forestry Share in Expenditure on Forest Products HIES Share in forest area PDS

Fishing Share in Output PDS, AYSB Share in Output PDS

INDUSTRY

Mining and Quarrying Share in Output of Minerals PDS, EYB Share in Output of Minerals

Large-Scale Manufacturing Share in Output of – industries PDS, PES, CMI Share in employment CMID, PDS

Small-Scale Manufacturing Share in Informal Sector Employment in Manufacturing LFS Income-Adjusted Share in Employment PSLMS

Slaughtering Share in Consump�on Expenditure on Livestock Products (excl. HIES Share in Animal Slaughtered PDS milk and eggs)

Electricity, Gas and Water Shares in electricity genera�on, electricity consump�on, gas PDS, EYB, ASYB Income-Adjusted Share in Employment PSLMS consump�on and canal water withdrawals

Construc�on Income-Adjusted Share in Employment HIES, LFS Share in withholding tax from contracts FBRYB

SERVICES

Transport, Storage and Communica�ons Shares in Consump�on of POL and number of cellular phone, OCAC, PTA Share in Withholding tax from telecommunica�on, petroleum, CNG FBRYB landline and internet subscribers sta�ons and registra�on of new cars

Wholesale and Retail Trade, Hotels and Share in consump�on expenditures and expenditures on hotels HIES Income-Adjusted Share in Employment PSLMS Restaurants and restaurant

Finance and Insurance Share in bank deposits and advances SBP Share in withholding tax from stock exchange, dividends, cash FBRYB withdrawal and bank interest and securi�es

Ownership of Dwellings Share in actual and imputed rents HIES Share in withholding tax from immovable property and rents FBRYB

Public Administra�on and Defence Income-adjusted share in employment HIES, LFS Income-adjusted share in employment PSLMS

Community, Social and Personal Services Income-adjusted share in employment HIES, LFS Share in capital of Co-opera�ve society PDS a Data was only available for selected industries. For other industries data was obtained directly from the Punjab Bureau of Sta�s�cs and Pakistan Bureau of Sta�s�cs *PDS = Punjab Development Sta�s�cs, ASYB Agricultural Sta�s�cs Year Book, ASYBD = Agricultural Sta�s�cs Year Book District level, HIES = Household Integrated Economic Survey, LFS = Labour Force Survey, PSLMS = Pakistan Social Living Standards Measurement Survey, OCAC = Oil Companies Advisory Commi�ee, PTA = Pakistan Telecommunica�ons Authority, SBP = State Bank of Pakistan, FBRYB =Federal Board of Revenue Yearbook, LC =Livestock Census Data, CMID = Census of Manufacturing Industry District report

Source: The provincial allocators has been taken from IPP (2012) and IPR (2015). The district allocators are developed by the author. 16

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Chapter 2

The Size of the Economy of Lahore

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

2. 1 PRELIMINARY REMARKS

This chapter provides the es�mate of the size of the Punjab and Lahore Economy respec�vely. Throughout the chapter, we give data for two years – 2010-11 and 2014-15. Details of the methodology are given in the Technical Appendix. In this chapter, we only provide the share of Lahore and Punjab in the na�onal value added by sector. Data on an annual basis is given in the Sta�s�cal Annexure of the report. The main reason is the non-availability of several indicators at district level. We use extensively the PBS publica�on, Rebasing of the Na�onal Income Accounts to 2005-06, in our es�ma�on.

2.2AGRICULTURE We start with the es�ma�on of the value added in the agricultural sector. This is the primary sector of the economy. It consists of important crops, other crops, co�on ginning, livestock and ﬁshing & forestry. Sub-sectoral value added is given in the following paragraphs.

2.2.1 Important Crops The share of Punjab in the na�onal output and the share of Lahore in provincial and na�onal economy have been es�mated on the basis of share in output of 5 important crops. Table 2.1 gives the share of Punjab and Lahore in four major crops – wheat, rice, co�on and sugarcane. Punjab has a rela�vely large share in all the four key crops, with some decline only in rice. Lahore has very li�le produc�on base of important crops. Lahore’s share in na�onal economy is less than one per cent. Overall, the share of Punjab in value added in important crops has decreased from 79 per cent in 2010-11 to 68 per cent in 2014-15. Clearly, Punjab plays a dominant role in this sector. The share of Lahore in the value added of important crop has also decreased from 0.6 per cent in 2010-11 to 0.5 per cent in 2014- 15 and the share of Lahore in the provincial economy has also decreased from 0.8 per cent in 2010- 11 to 0.7 per cent in 2014-15.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 2.1 Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Production of Important Crops (%) Years Wheat Rice Cotton Sugarcane Punjab’s Lahore’s Punjab’s Lahore’s Punjab’s Lahore’s Punjab’s Lahore’s Share Share Share Share Share Share Share Share 2010-11 75.52 0.74 70.16 1.23 68.51 0 67.77 0.03 2014-15 76.86 0.67 52.09 0.96 73.65 0 65.38 0.03 Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Important Crops (Value Added) Years Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab Punjab’s share in National Economy Economy National Economy 2010-11 0.6 0.8 78.9 2014-15 0.5 0.7 67.7

2.2.2 Other Crops This sub-sector of agriculture consists of vegetables, fruits, pulses, condiments, oilseed and fodder. Punjab has a relatively large share, in excess of 60 per cent, in vegetables, fruits and fodder, as shown in Table 2.2. Overall, the share of Punjab in the national value added in other crops has increased slightly from almost 59 per cent in 2010-11 to 61 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore is very low and it is declining. The share of Lahore has decreased from 1.2 per cent to 1.1 per cent in national economy and its share in the province has also decreased from 2 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

Table 2.2 Share of Punjab and Lahore in Production of Other Crops (%) Years Vegetables Fruits Fodder Condiments Punjab’s Lahore’s Punjab’s Lahore’s Punjab’s Lahore Punjab’s Lahore’s Share Share Share Share Share Share Share Share 2010-11 80.2 2.5 64.1 0.6 83.6 2.5 20.1 0.1 2014-15 77.9 2.3 63.0 0.3 84.4 2.7 22.7 0.1 Share of Punjab in Pakistan’s Other Crops’ Value Added Years Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab Punjab’s share in National Economy Economy National Economy 2010-11 1.2 2.0 58.9 2014-15 1.1 1.7 61.0

2.2.3 Cotton ginning

According to PBS’s Rebasing of National income accounts 2005-06, cotton ginning has been added into the crop sector. Previously it was part of manufacturing. The share of Punjab and Lahore in cotton ginning is estimated on the basis of the output of cotton crop. The share of Punjab in this subsector has increased from 43 per cent in 2010-11 to 46.2 per cent in 2014-15. It has been assumed that

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Lahore has no share in this sector because neither it produces co�on nor there is any unit of co�on ginning in Lahore.2

2.2.4 Livestock

Na�onally, the livestock sector has the highest share of value added in the agriculture sector, i.e., more than 56 per cent. Developments in this sector, therefore, have an important bearing on the overall agricultural growth rate. The share of Punjab in na�onal economy is more than 61 per cent. The share of Lahore in the na�onal value added of livestock is 3.6 per cent and the share in provincial value added has declined slightly from 6 per cent in 2010-11 to 5.9 per cent in 2014-15.

Table 2.3: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Livestock Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 3.6 6.0 61.3 2014-15 3.6 5.9 61.1

2.2.5 Fishing and Forestry The shares of fishing and forestry in na�onal value added of agriculture are 2.1 per cent and 1.9 per cent respec�vely. Lahore has a very small share in case of fisheries, and it has no produc�on of Forestry products. Table 4 gives the share of Lahore and Punjab in the value added of fisheries. Table 2.4: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Fishing Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 0.6 2.5 23.4 2014-15 0.6 2.4 23.5

With the shares of value added in various sub-sectors of agriculture es�mated, it is now possible to computer the shares of Lahore and Punjab in the na�onal value added of agriculture sector as a whole. Table 2.5 presents the results. Punjab has a rela�vely higher share in the agriculture sector of Pakistan, but its share has decreased from 63.7 per cent in 2010-11 to 61.3 per cent in 2014-15. Lahore has a very small share in the agriculture sector. It is 2.3 per cent and 3.7 per cent of na�onal and provincial agriculture sector respec�vely.

2 This is according to the Directory of Industrial Establishments, published by Punjab Industries Department.

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Table 2.5: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Agriculture Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in National Economy Punjab Economy National Economy

2010-11 2.3 3.7 63.7 2014-15 2.3 3.7 61.3

Chart 2.1 below compares the structure of the agricultural economy of Pakistan, Punjab and Lahore for the year 2014-15. It will be seen that Lahore has a very little agriculture sector, with very high dependence on the livestock sub-sector. The share of livestock is 89 per cent of the total agriculture value added of Lahore.

Crops Livestock Forestry Fishing

PAKISTAN 39.4 56.6 1.92.1

PUNJAB 41.3 56.4 1.40.8

LAHORE 10.4 89.0 0.00.5

Authors Estimates

2.3 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Industrial sector consists of the sub-sectors of mining and quarrying, large-scale manufacturing, small- scale manufacturing, slaughtering, construction and electricity, gas & water.

2.3.1Mining and Quarrying

The contribution of mining and quarrying in the GDP of the country is less than 3 per cent and Punjab has a small share in the mineral extraction. However, the share of Punjab in the national value added in mining and quarrying increased from 20 per cent in 2010-11 to 22 per cent in 2014-15. There is no activity of mining and quarrying in Lahore.

2.3.2 Large-Scale Manufacturing

Punjab Bureau of Statistics publishes the industrial production index for large-scale manufacturing (LSM) in Punjab. Data is available on the production of 100 industrial items within the LSM subsector. As Table 2.6 indicates, the share of Punjab in the national value added in LSM fell slightly from 49.3 per cent to 48.9 per cent during 2010-11 to 2014-15. However, the share of Lahore in national value added of LSM increased from 9 per cent in 2010-11 to 9.7 per cent in 2014-15. Its share in provincial

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

value added of LSM also increased from 18.3 per cent to 19.8 per cent during 2010-11 to 2014-15. LSM is thus a subsector in which Lahore’s share is signiﬁcantly large.

Table 2.6: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Large-Scale Manufacturing Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 9.0 18.3 49.3 2014-15 9.7 19.8 48.9

2.3.3 Small-Scale Manufacturing

It appears that Punjab has a domina�ng presence in this sector, with a share of 71 per cent in na�onal value added. The share has remained constant since we have applied the constant na�onal growth rate to the provincial share. The share of Lahore in na�onal value added of small scale manufacturing is 9.5 per cent and provincial value added is 13.3 per cent.

2.3.4 Slaughtering

Slaughtering is also part of manufacturing. Due to the dominance of livestock subsector, Punjab also has a large share in slaughtering value added. Table 2.7 below gives the share of Lahore and Punjab in the na�onal and provincial value added of slaughtering.

Table 2.7: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Slaughtering Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 3.0 6.1 48.8 2014-15 4.1 8.2 50.5

2.3.5 Construction

The share of Punjab in construc�on has increased signiﬁcantly from 58 per cent in 2010-11 to 75 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore has also increased in na�onal value added of construc�on from 9.4 per cent to 12.9 per cent during 2010-11 to 2014-15. The share of Lahore in provincial economy has also increased from 16.2 per cent in 2010-11 to 17.2 per cent in 2014-15. This can be seen in Table 2.8.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 2.8: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Construc�on Value Added (%) Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 9.4 16.2 58.0 2014-15 12.9 17.2 75.3

2.3.6 Electricity, Gas Distribution and Water Supply

Lahore has a major energy deﬁcit. The share of Lahore in the na�onal value added has decreased signiﬁcantly from 15 per cent in 2010-11 to 8.3 per cent in 2014-15 and its share in the provincial value added of the sector has also decreased from 33 per cent to 18.7 per cent in 2014-15. Overall, the share of Punjab has decreased slightly from 44.9 per cent in 2010-11 to 44.3 per cent in 2014-15. These changes may be seen in Table 2.9.

Table 2.9: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Electricity, Gas Distribu�on and Water Supply Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 15.0 33.4 44.9 2014-15 8.3 18.7 44.3

Overall the share of Lahore in na�onal value added of industrial sector is stuck to 8.3 per cent during 2010-11 to 2014-15 and its share in provincial value added has decreased from 17.5 per cent to 16.7 per cent. The main reason of this decline is the poor performance of electricity genera�on, gas distribu�on and water supply in the above-men�oned period. On the other side, the share of Punjab in na�onal value added has increased from 47.1 per cent in 2010-11 to 49.6 per cent in 2014-15.

Table 2.10: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Industrial Value Added (%)

Lahore Share in Lahore Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 8.3 17.5 47.1 2014-15 8.3 16.7 49.6

Chart 2.2 below compares the structure of the industrial sector of Pakistan, Punjab and Lahore for the year 2014-15. The chart shows that Lahore’s industrial sector depends the most on manufacturing ac�vi�es, followed by construc�on.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Chart 2.2: Composi�on of Industrial Sector of Pakistan, Punjab and Lahore 2014-15

Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on Construc�on

P AKI S T A N 14.3 65.6 8.5 11.7

P U N J A B 6.2 68.5 7.6 17.7

L AHO R E 73.4 8.4 18.2

Authors Es�mates

2.4 SERVICES SECTOR Services sector consists of various economic ac�vi�es including wholesale and retail trade,3 transport, storage & communica�ons, ﬁnance & insurance, housing services, general government services and other private services.

2.4.1 Wholesale and Retail Trade; Hotels and Restaurants

The share of Lahore in na�onal value added of this sector has declined from 11 per cent in 2010-11 to 10 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore in provincial value added of this sector has also decreased from 19.4 per cent in 2010-11 to 17.1 per cent in the 2014-15, whereas the share of Punjab in na�onal value added has increased from 56.4 per cent in 2010-11 to 58.8 per cent in 2014-15. This is evident from Table 2.11.

Table 2.11: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Wholesale & Retail Trade Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 11.0 19.4 56.4 2014-15 10.0 17.1 58.8

2.4.2 Transport, Storage and Communications

The indicators used to gauge the value added in transport is the input of POL products and the number of broadband, mobile phone subscribers and land line users in the province. Such informa�on is not

3 Including hotels and restaurants

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

available at district level. So we have used withholding tax revenue from petroleum products, telecommunication and new registered cars collected at LTU (Large Tax Unit) and RTO (Regional Tax Office) in Lahore. Overall, the share of Punjab in value added in transport, storage and communications is estimated at 52.4 per cent in 2010-11. It increased sharply to 62.8 per cent in 2014- 15, showing that in last five years the share has increased by more than 10 percentage points. The share of Lahore in national economy has also increased from 21.6 per cent in 2010-11 to 25.9 per cent in 2014-15. As shown in Table 2.12, the share of Lahore in provincial value added of this subsector is stuck around 41 per cent.

Table 2.12: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Transport, Storage and Communication Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in National Economy Punjab Economy National Economy 2010-11 21.6 41.2 52.4 2014-15 25.9 41.2 62.8

2.4.3 Finance and Insurance

The share of this subsector in national GDP is around 3 per cent. The share of Punjab in finance and insurance has decreased slightly from 46.9 per cent in 2010-11 to 45.1 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore in national value added of finance and insurance has increased from 6.2 per cent in 2010- 11 to 9.2 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore in provincial economy has also increased from 13.3 per cent to 20.4 per cent. This indicates that Lahore is growing at a high rate than province.

Table 2.13: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Finance and Insurance Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in National Economy Punjab Economy National Economy 2010-11 6.2 13.3 46.9 2014-15 9.2 20.4 45.1

2.4.4 Housing Services

Punjab’s share in housing services has increased from 53 per cent in 2010-11 to 54.8 per cent in 2014- 15. The share of Lahore in national economy has increased sharply from 16.8 per cent in 2010-11 to 22.9 per cent in 2014-15. Thus, the share of Lahore in provincial economy has increased from 31.6 per cent in 2010-11 to 41.7 per cent in 2014-15. In five years, the share of Lahore in the provincial economy has increased by 10 percentage points.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 2.14: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Housing Services Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 16.8 31.6 53.1 2014-15 22.9 41.7 54.8

2.4.5 General Government Services

The es�ma�on of share of Punjab in na�onal economy has been based on income adjusted share of employed popula�on in this sector at na�onal and provincial level. The share of Punjab in this sector has increased from 42.3 per cent in 2010-11 to 44.9 per cent in 2014-15. The es�mated share of Lahore has been based on revenue collec�on under general government employees. The share of Lahore in na�onal valued added of this sector has decreased from 17.2 per cent in 2010-11 to 15.4 per cent in 2014-15. Consequently, the share of Lahore in provincial value added has also decreased from 41 per cent in 2010-11 to 34.3 per cent in 2014-15. Table 2.15 portrays this picture

Table 2.15: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s General Government Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 17.2 40.8 42.3 2014-15 15.4 34.3 44.9

2.4.6 Other Private Services

The share of Punjab in this sector has increased from 53.3 per cent in 2010-11 to 60 per cent in 2014- 15. The share of Lahore in na�onal value added has also increased from 8.9 per cent in 2010-11 to 11.3 per cent in 2014-15. As a result, the share of Lahore in the provincial economy has also increased from 16.8 per cent to 18.9 per cent during 2010-11 to 2014-15. Table 2.16 reﬂects these trends.

Table 2.16: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Other Private Services Value Added (%)

Lahore Share in Lahore Share in Punjab’s share in Na�onal Economy Punjab Economy Na�onal Economy 2010-11 8.9 16.8 53.3 2014-15 11.3 18.9 60.0

Overall, as Table 2.17 reveals, the share of Lahore in na�onal value added of services sector has increased from 14.2 per cent in 2010-11 to 16 per cent in 2014-15. The share of Lahore in provincial value added of the services sector has increased from 27 per cent in 2010-11 to 28 per cent in 2014- 15. The share of Punjab has increased from 52.6 per cent in 2010-11 to 57 per cent in 2014-15.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 2.17: Share of Punjab and Lahore in Pakistan’s Services Sector Value Added (%)

Lahore’s Share in Lahore’s Share in Punjab’s share in National Economy Punjab Economy National Economy 2010-11 14.2 27.0 52.6 2014-15 16.0 28.0 57.0

Chart 2.3 below gives the structure of the services sector of Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan in 2014-15. It appears that the services sector of Lahore depends more on transport, storage & communication and housing services as compared to Punjab and Pakistan.

Chart 2.3: Composition of Services Sector of Pakistan, Punjab and Lahore 2014-15

Wholesale & Retail Trade Transport, Storage & Communication Finance & Insurance Housing Services (OD) General Government Services Other Private Services

PAKISTAN 31.2 22.9 5.4 11.5 12.2 16.9

PUNJAB 32.1 25.2 4.3 11.1 9.6 17.8

LAHORE 19.6 37.1 3.1 16.5 11.8 12.0

2.5 OVERALL SHARES OF LAHORE AND PUNJAB IN NATIONAL ECONOMY

Based on the above analysis of individual sectors, we are now in a position to present results on the following: (i) Share of Lahore in the national economy in agriculture, industry and services sectors (ii) Sectoral composition of the Lahore economy (iii) Share of Punjab in the national economy in agriculture, industry and services sectors (iv) Sectoral composition of the Punjab economy

Table 2.18 gives the sector-wise share of Lahore and Punjab in the national economy. It will be noticed that while the share of Lahore in national value added in agriculture and industry remains unchanged,

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

the share in services sector has increased by almost 2 percentage points during 2010-11 to 2014-15. It appears that the main source of growth in these five years for Lahore was services sector rather than industry and agriculture. The result reveals that the contribu�on of Lahore in na�onal GDP is 11.5 per cent. During these five years of this decade the share of Lahore in na�onal GDP has increased by 1 percentage point. The share of Lahore in provincial GDP has also increased by 1.2 percentage points. The Lahore economy cons�tutes 19 per cent of the Punjab economy. Similarly, for Punjab, the share of industry has increased by 2.5 percentage points and the share of services sector has increased by 4.5 percentage points. The share of agriculture has decreased by 2.5 percentage points. In 2014-15, the share of Punjab in na�onal GDP was 56.4 per cent. In these first five years, the share of Punjab in na�onal GDP has increased by 2.6 percentage points.

Table 2.18: Share of Punjab and Lahore in the Na�onal Economy

(%) Years Agriculture Industry Services Total Lahore’s share in Na�onal Value Added 2010-11 2.3 8.3 14.2 10.4 2014-15 2.3 8.3 16.0 11.5 Lahore’s share in Provincial Value Added 2010-11 3.7 17.5 27.0 17.7 2014-15 3.7 16.7 28.0 18.9 Punjab’s share in Na�onal Value Added 2010-11 63.7 47.1 52.6 53.8 2014-15 61.3 49.6 57.0 56.4

Chart 2.4 below gives the composi�on and changing structure of Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan economies. It reveals that more than 80 per cent economy of Lahore’s economy is service based, and the share of services sector is rising con�nuously. The commodity producing sector’s share is declining. The pa�ern is more or less same at provincial and na�onal level, but to a rela�vely lower extent.

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Chart 4: Composition of Lahore, Punjab and National Economies 2010-11

Agriculture Industry Services

LAHORE 4.9 16.9 78.2

PUNJAB 25.7 18.6 55.8

PAKISTAN 21.7 21.2 57.1

2014-15

LAHORE 4.1 14.9 81.0

PUNJAB 22.5 18.2 59.3

PAKISTAN 20.7 20.7 58.9

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Chapter 3

Economic Growth of Lahore and Punjab

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3. 1 PRELIMINARY REMARKS

This chapter discusses the growth rate of Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan. The analysis here will help us answer following ques�ons:

I. Does Lahore economy lead the Punjab economy?

II. Does Punjab economy lead the Pakistan economy?

Table 3.1 gives the average annual growth rate of agriculture sector for Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan. The results reveal that the agriculture growth of Lahore and Punjab is below the na�onal growth rate of 2.7 per cent. The main reason for this poor performance of Punjab and Lahore are the bad performance of cropping sector which shows a nega�ve growth of -4.3 and -0.2 per cent respec�vely for Lahore and Punjab. The agriculture sector of Lahore grew at rate 2.2 per cent as compare to 1.7 per cent for the rest of Punjab.

Table 3.1: Average annual growth of agriculture by region* 2010-11 to 2014-15

Cropping sector** Livestock Agriculture Lahore -4.3 3.1 2.2 Rest of Punjab -0.2 -0.5 1.7 Punjab -0.2 3.4 1.7 Rest of Pakistan 6.4 3.6 4.4 Pakistan 1.9 3.5 2.7 * Subtracting Punjab from national sectoral value added gives rest of Pakistan value added. Similarly, subtracting Lahore from Punjab gives the rest of Punjab value added. **Includes important crops, other crops and cotton ginning

During 2010-11 to 2014-15, the manufacturing sector of Lahore has shown a growth rate of 5.4 per cent as compared to 4.1 per cent for the na�onal economy and only 3.8 per cent for rest of Punjab. This indicates that the high growth of manufacturing sector of Lahore helps Punjab to grow at a slightly higher rate than rest of Pakistan.

Lahore showed a nega�ve growth rate of 17.5 per cent in electricity and gas distribu�on. This is a major reason for the overall low growth of industrial sector of Lahore. The construc�on ac�vity of Lahore showed an average annual growth rate of 12.9 per cent as compared to 11 per cent for the rest of Punjab and 4.3 per cent for the na�onal economy. The overall industrial sector of Lahore grew at the rate of 3.3 per cent as compared to 4.8 per cent for the rest of Punjab and 3.2 per cent for Pakistan as whole.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 3.2: Average annual growth of Industrial sector by region 2010-11 to 2014-15

Manufacturing* Electricity & Gas Construction Industrial Sector Lahore 5.4 -17.5 12.9 3.3 Rest of Punjab 3.8 0.3 11.0 4.8 Punjab 4.2 -4.6 11.3 4.6 Rest of Pakistan 4.0 -4.0 -8.6 2.0 Pakistan 4.1 -4.2 4.3 3.2 *Includes LSM, SSM and Slaughtering

Table 3.3 gives the average annual growth rate of various services during 2010-11 to 2014-15. The result shows that during this period the service sector of Lahore grew at the rate of 7.7 per cent as compared to 6.4 per cent for the rest of Punjab and 4.7 per cent for Pakistan. The housing services in Lahore showed a growth rate of 12.3 per cent as compared to 0.7 per cent for the rest of Punjab and 4 per cent for the Pakistan. Similarly, the transport, storage and communication subsector showed a growth rate of 9.3 per cent as compared to 4.4 per cent for Pakistan. Wholesale & retail trade is the only activity in which Lahore’s growth rate is below the provincial and national growth rate, but again Punjab’s growth rate is higher than national growth rate. It appears that in services sector, Lahore is leading the Punjab and Punjab is leading the national economy.

Table 3.3: Average annual growth of services sector by region 2010-11 to 2014-15

Transport, Services Wholesale & Storage & Retail Trade Communication Housing Services (OD) Lahore 0.9 9.3 12.3 7.7 Rest of Punjab 4.9 9.2 0.7 6.4 Punjab 4.2 9.2 4.8 6.7 Rest of Pakistan 1.7 -1.8 3.1 2.0 Pakistan 3.1 4.4 4.0 4.7

It appears that during 2010-11 to 2014-15 the Lahore grew at rate of 6.7 per cent per annum as compare to 5 per cent growth rate of Punjab and 3.9 per cent growth rate for Pakistan. This indicates that Lahore is leading the Punjab economy and Punjab is leading the Pakistan. Except for agriculture the growth rate of Lahore and Punjab is higher than rest of Pakistan.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 3.4: Average annual growth of GDP by region and in Pakistan during 2010-11 to 2014-15

Agriculture Industry Services GDP Lahore 2.2 3.3 7.7 6.7 Rest of Punjab 1.7 4.8 5.8 4.6 Punjab 1.7 4.6 6.3 5.0 Rest of Pakistan 4.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 Pakistan 2.7 3.2 4.7 3.9

CONCLUDIG REMARKS AND SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS

This study has a�empted to size up the economy of Lahore and its structure. Lahore is in Punjab and Punjab is in Pakistan. All oﬃcial es�mates of GDP pertain to the country as a whole. The approach adopted is to derive, on the basis of informa�on available and by way of plausible a�ribu�on, the share of the economy of Lahore in the economy of Punjab and the share of the economy of Punjab in the economy of Pakistan. As the analysis covers a ﬁve-year period extending from 2010-11 to 2014-15, the study is also able to provide overall and sectoral growth rates.

The most important result of the study is that Lahore has a large economy of over a trillion rupees. In 2010-11, the size of the economy of Lahore was around Rs 945.6 billion. It went up to Rs 1,227 billion in 2014-15. This means that the share of Lahore in the Punjab economy increased from 17.7 per cent in 2010-11 to 18.9 per cent in 2014-15. The corresponding shares of Lahore in Pakistan’s GDP were 10.4 per cent and 11.5 per cent.

Not only the economy of Lahore is large, it is also a thriving economy. In the period of the study, the annual GDP growth rate of Lahore was higher than that of Punjab and Pakistan. But for Lahore’s growth of 6.7 per cent, provincial and na�onal growth would have been lower than the realized growth of 5 per cent and 3.9 per cent respec�vely. Economic growth in Lahore, thus, leads the economic growth of Punjab and Pakistan.

Within Punjab, Lahore’s growth of 6.7 per cent is way above the growth of 4.6 per cent in the rest of Punjab. This raises a distribu�onal issue. It should, however, also be kept in view that the rest of Punjab suﬀered from a low growth in agriculture. As agriculture has a larger share in the rest of Punjab than industry, even a higher industrial growth of 4.8 per cent could not compensate for the low agricultural growth of 1.7 per cent.

Services sector is the largest and the highest growing sector of Lahore. Its share in the GDP is 81 per cent. The sector has grown at an annual growth rate 7.7 per cent. The city, it seems, has become the focal point of the growth of post-industrial and postmodern services.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

A shift from manufacturing to the services sector has been the most notable feature of urban growth and development the world over. Lahore is no exception. The need is to understand the policy implications of the rising share and growth of services. It challenges the existing urban governance and planning practices. Autonomous and self-governing cities are a better environment for growth. Services growth creates employment and promotes enterprise and innovation. Density rather than sprawl is much better for realizing the economies of scale and agglomeration. It makes the city more productive. As Edward Glaeser aptly put it: “There is no such thing as a poor urbanized country and there is no such thing as a rich rural country.”

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

REFERENCES

Polèse, M. (2009) The Wealth and Poverty of Regions: Why Cities Matter. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Glaeser, E. L. (2011) Triumph of the city: how our greatest invention makes us richer, smarter, greener, healthier, and happier. New York: Penguin Press. Dobbs, R., Remes, J., Manyika, J., Roxburgh, C., Smit, S., Schaer, F. (2012). Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class. McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from: file:///home/lcci/Downloads/MGI_Urban_world_Rise_of_the_consuming_class_Full_report.p df Institute of Public Policy (IPP) [2012] The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story, Fifth Annual Report, Beaconhouse National University, Lahore Institute of Policy Reform IPR [2015] Growth of the Provincial Economies, IPR brief December 2015, by Dr Hafiz A Pasha, Lahore Punjab Development Statistics. Bureau of Statistics. Government of Punjab. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.bos.gop.pk/publicationreports Pakistan Economic Survey. Ministry of Finance. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved From: http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1617.html Household Income and Expenditure Survey. (2014-15). Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//pslm/publications/hies15-16/write%20up%2015-16- HIES-final_0.pdf Pakistan Social Living Standards Measurement Survey. (2013-14). Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//pslm/publications/pslm2013_14/A%20report%2013- 14%28%2012-05-15%29_FInal_1.pdf Labour Force Survey. (2015-16). Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//Annual%20Report%20of%20LFS%202014-15.pdf Federal Board of Revenue- Revenue division yearbooks. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.fbr.gov.pk/CategoryLayout.aspx?view=Category[Documents]&ActionID=358&Arti cleID= Agricultural Statistics Year Book. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/agriculture-statistics-pakistan-2010-11 http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files//UPDATE%20YEAR%20BOOK%2015.pdf

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Livestock Census Data. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-livestock-census-2006 Census of Manufacturing Industry District report. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/industry_mining_and_energy/publications/CMI_2005 -06_district-wise.pdf Agricultural Statistics Year Book District level. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/all-reports-and-publications http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/other/yearbook2013/YEAR%20BOOK%202013- 14%20final.pdf Oil Companies Advisory Committee. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.ocac.org.pk/ Pakistan Telecommunications Authority. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pta.gov.pk/index.php?Itemid=1 State Bank of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/index2.asp Federal Board of Revenue- Revenue division Yearbook. Government of Pakistan. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.fbr.gov.pk/CategoryLayout.aspx?view=Category[Documents]&ActionID=359&Arti cleID= Bengali, K. and Sadaqat, M. (2005). Regional accounts of Pakistan methodology and estimates 1973-2000. Social Policy & Development Centre. Karachi. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.spdc.org.pk/Data/Publication/PDF/WP5.pdf Pakistan institute of development economics. Pakistan. Retrieved from: http://www.pide.org.pk/index.php/professional-dept/publications The World Bank. Retrieved from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/research https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan?view=chart

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Technical Annexure

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Gross Regional Product (GRP) requires different sets of ‘Allocators’ and ‘Proxy Variables’, which not only represent the share of a Region but also the trends in GRP vis a vis to GDP. This annexure discusses the methodology used in order to decompose the share of Punjab’s in National GDP and Lahore’s Share in Punjab and National GDP respectively.

Assumptions of Methodology

Following are the assumptions of the study:

Estimates of value added where data on value added is available Estimates of gross value of production is converted into a value-added figure at the national level by deducting cost components on various assumptions; Estimates were obtained on the basis of physical volume of the gross output for each region. Estimates were obtained by using inputs data for example wages to laborers Inconsistencies were removed by matching it to national estimates of total output.

The share of Lahore in National and Provincial GDP is estimated by using two-step procedure. The first step is to update the estimates of Punjab share in National GDP and we have used the is divided into In this study, we follow same methodology used by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), where data is available in disaggregated form but in some sectors same information is not available at provincial level so, we use different “allocators” to decompose National Value Added in two regions, Punjab and Rest of Pakistan. Different approaches are used based on the nature of sectors. Now we present a brief methodology for each sector and sub sectors individually.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Figure 3.1: Schematic Diagram of research

Gross Regional Product (GRP) Lahore GRP Punjab

Gross Domestic Product Rest of Punjab (GDP) Gross Regional GRP Product (GRP) Rest of Pakistan

푛 푛 푛 푛 ∑ 퐺퐷푃 = ∑ 퐴푔푟𝑖푐푢푙푡푢푟푒 + ∑ 퐼푛푑푢푠푡푟푦 + ∑ 푆푒푟푣𝑖푐푒푠 푖=1 푖=1 푖=1 푖=1

푛 푛 푛 ∑ 퐴푔푟𝑖푐푢푙푡푢푟푒 = ∑ 퐶푟표푝푝𝑖푛푔 + ∑ 퐿𝑖푣푒푠푡표푐푘 + 퐹𝑖푠ℎ푒푟𝑖푒푠 + 퐹표푟푒푠푡푟푦 푖=1 푖=1 푖=1

푛 푛 푛 ∑ 퐼푛푑푢푠푡푟푦 = ∑ 푀𝑖푛𝑖푛푔 푎푛푑 푄푢푎푟푟푦𝑖푛푔 + ∑ 퐿푎푟푔푒 푠푐푎푙푒 푚푎푛푢푓푎푐푡푢푟푛푔 푖=1 푖=1 푖=1

푛 푛 + ∑ 푆푚푎푙푙 푆푐푎푙푒 푀푎푛푢푓푎푐푡푢푟𝑖푛푔 + ∑ 푆푎푙푢푔ℎ푡푒푟𝑖푛푔 푖=1 푖=1

푛 푛 + ∑ 퐶표푛푠푡푟푢푐푡𝑖표푛 + ∑ 퐸푙푒푐푡푟𝑖푐𝑖푡푦 푎푛푑 퐺푎푠 퐷𝑖푠푡푟𝑖푏푢푡𝑖표푛 푖=1 푖=1

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

= & =1 =1 ℎ

∑ +∑ , & =1

+ ∑ & + =1 =1

+ ∑ ∑ + =1 =1 ℎ AGRICULTURE ∑ ∑ Agriculture includes activities like Cropping (Important Crops, Other Crops and Cotton Ginning), Livestock, Fishery and Forestry. Following is a detailed methodology for each sector and sub sectors separately. In each formula below r stands for a particular region. It can be Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan simultaneously.

Important Crops

There are five crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, Maize and Sugarcane) in the basket of important crops nationally. We have used the same basket at Punjab and Lahore level. Value added of important crops is estimated through production approach.

5 . . =1 . ( ) . .0 . . . = 5 *100 ∑ =1 ∗ . ∑ Q.I.r.M =Quantum Index of Important Crops for a region r

Xi.r.T= Production of ith crop in a region r in a given year

Xi.r.0.= Production of ith crop in region r in a base year

Wi.r = Weights of ith crop in region r in 2005-06

Where i= 1,2,3,4,5. t=2010-11, …., 2014-15. r= 1,2, 3

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Punjab for every year and apply that share on National value added as reported in various Economic Survey of Pakistan.

Other Crops We use the same methodology as in important crops. Other Crops include pulses, vegetables, fruits, condiments, fodder, oilseed, other crops, and flower and foliage. Since output of flower and foliage is not available at regional level and it is less than one percent to overall gross value of other crops. We have used the same basket at Punjab and Lahore level. Value added of other crops is estimated through production approach.

5 푋푖.푟.푇 ∑푖=1 푊푖.푟∗( ) 푋푖.푟.0 푄. 퐼.푟.푀 = 5 *100 ∑푖=1 푊푖.푟

Q.I.r.M =Quantum Index of other crops for a region r

Xi.r.T= Production of ith crop in a region r in a given year

Xi.r.0.= Production of ith crop in region r in a base year

Wi.r = Weights of ith crop in region r in 2005-06

Where i= 1,2,3,4,5. t=2010-11, …., 2014-15. r= 1,2, 3

Weights of each crop for Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan are the value of production of a crop in year 2005-06. We estimate the growth rates for Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan separately and apply those growth rates on gross value of production, then we find the share of Lahore and Punjab for every year and apply that share on National value added as reported in various Economic Survey of Pakistan.

Cotton Ginning

The share of Punjab in cotton ginning is estimated by production approach. the share in national value added is estimated based on the production of cotton in the province. Since we don’t have any cotton production in Lahore and according to industry department of Punjab there are no firms cotton ginning firm registered in Lahore, so it has been assumed that Lahore does not have any contribution in this sector.

Livestock: First we estimate the value added of Punjab in Livestock sector and we used consumption approach. Per capita consumption expenditure on Milk and Milk products, Meat (Mutton and

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Beef) and Poultry (Chicken meat and Eggs) is taken from Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) for Pakistan and Punjab separately. Since HIES is not published annually so we find missing values through standard interpolation techniques.

We then convert per capita monthly consumption into per capita annual consumption by multiplying it with corresponding year’s population of Pakistan and Punjab. We then estimate the share of Punjab.

MI C.P.t + MEC.P.t +CM C.P.t VAL.P.t =VAL.N.t * MI C.N.t + MEC.N.t +CM C.N.t

MIC.P.t = (MIC.U .P.t * NU .P.t ) + (MIC.R.P.t * NU .P.t )

MIC.N.t = (MIC.U .N.t * NU .N.t ) + (MIC.R.N.t * NU .N.t ) ME = (ME * N ) + (ME * N ) C.P.t C.U .P.t U .P.t C.R.P.t U .P.t MEC.N.t = (MEC.U .N.t * NU .N.t ) + (MEC.R.N.t * NU .N.t )

CM C.P.t = (CM C.U .P.t * NU .P.t ) + (CM C.R.P.t * NU .P.t )

CM C.N.t = (CM C.U .N.t * NU .N.t ) + (CM C.R.N.t * NU .N.t )

VA = Value added in livestock nationally in a t year. L.N.t

VA = Value added in livestock Punjab in a t year. L.P.t

MI = Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

MI =Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U.P.t

MI = Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t C.R.P.t

MI = Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

MI =Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U.N.t

MI = Consumption Expenditures on Milk in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U .P.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t. C.R.P.t

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U .N.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Meat in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Poultry in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Poultry in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U .P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Poultry in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t. C.R.P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Poultry in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Poultry in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditure on Poultry in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

N = Urban population of Pakistan in year t. U .N.t

N = Rural Population of Pakistan in Year t. R.N.t

= Urban population of Punjab in year t.

N = Rural Population of Punjab in Year t. R.N.t

Then we estimate the share of Lahore in Punjab production by using production approach. The livestock census survey provides the milk production by district and these surveys are available for 2006 and 2010. We have estimated the milk production for Lahore and Punjab by using inter censual growth rate of milk production for Lahore and Punjab and compute Lahore’s share in milk production. The share of Lahore in meat and products is estimated by using the share of Lahore in total animal slaughtered in Punjab and the share of Lahore in poultry is estimated based on its share in broiler and layer chicken produced in Lahore and total eggs produced in Lahore. These information is available in Punjab development statistics, published by bureau of Statistics of Punjab.

Fisheries Fishing Activities include catching of fish from rivers, canals, farms, and oceans. Contribution of Fisheries in GRP is estimated through production approach by same methodology that is

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

used at National level. Amount of Fish caught under inland fishing at provincial level and divisional level is taken from various Punjab Development Statistics (PDS) by Punjab Bureau of Statistics. To arrive at a district level estimated we assumed that half of divisional production of fish is produced in Lahore district, so we reduced Lahore division fish production by 50 per cent to reach at estimate of fisheries.

GVt.r = 80*(2QI.t.r ) + 50* (Qm.t.r )

QI.t.r = Quantity of inland fish caught in year t region r.

Qm.t.r = Quantity of marine fish caught in year t region r.

80 and 50 are the average price of inland fish and marine fish per kg in a Base Year (2005-06)

2= Double the amount of inland fishing due to under reporting.

Once we have estimated the gross value of production for Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan then we compute the share Punjab and Lahore in National Gross value added in a particular year. We applied that share on national value added of fisheries given in Economic survey of Pakistan to arrive at a value added by Lahore and Punjab in fisheries.

Forestry It has been assumed that Lahore has no contribution into forestry. Almost all the wood that has been used in Lahore for any purpose is imported from other regions of Pakistan. The share of Lahore in total covered forest area by punajb is less than 0.5 per cent.

We have estimated the share of Punjab in National GDP by using expenditure approach. Per capita consumption expenditure on Fire Wood for Pakistan and Punjab is taken separately from HIES, then convert per capita monthly consumption expenditures into annually provincial and national consumption expenditures by same methodology as used in livestock. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

FWEX .P.t VAP.t =VAN.t * FWEX .N.t

FWEX .P.t = (FWEX .U .P.t * NU .P.t ) + (FWEX .R.P.t * N R.P.t )

FWEX .N.t = (FWEX .U .N.t * NU .N.t ) + (FWEX .R.N.t * N R.N.t )

VAP.t = Value Added of forestry in Punjab in year t.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

VAN.t = Value Added of forestry in Pakistan in year t.

FWEX .P.t = Firewood Expenditures in Punjab in year t.

FWEX .N.t = Fire Wood Expenditures in Pakistan in Year t.

FWEX .U .P.t = Fire Wood Expenditures in Urban Areas of Punjab in Year t.

FWEX .R.P.t = Fire Wood Expenditures in Rural Areas of Punjab in Year t.

FWEX .U .N.t = Fire Wood Expenditures in Urban Areas of Pakistan in Year t.

FWEX .R.N.t = Fire Wood Expenditures in Rural Areas of Pakistan in Year t.

NU .N.t = Urban population of Pakistan in year t.

N R.N.t = Rural Population of Pakistan in Year t.

= Urban population of Punjab in year t.

N R.N.t = Rural Population of Punjab in Year t.

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Industrial sector includes mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing (Large scale Manufacturing, Small Scale Manufacturing and Slaughtering), Construction and Electricity and Gas Distribution.

Mining and Quarrying: Like cotton ginning and forestry, Lahore does not have any production of mining. The Share of Punjab in Mining and Quarrying is derived by using production approach. A quantum index for Mining and Quarrying is constructed for Punjab and Pakistan on the bases of 9 minerals (Coal, Natural gas, Crude oil, and 8 other Minerals). Benchmark values are taken from census of mining and Quarrying Industry 2005-06 by PBS.

11 푋푖.푝.푇 ∑푖=1 푊푖∗( ) 푋푖.푝.0 푄. 퐼.푃.푀 = 11 *100 ∑푖=1 푊푖

Q.I.P.M =Quantum Index of Mining and Quarrying for Punjab

Xi.P.T = Production of ith Mineral in Punjab in a given year

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Xi.P.0. =Production of ith Mineral in Punjab in a base year

Wi = Weights of ith mineral in Mining in Punjab

wherei= 1,2,3,4,5,…,11. t=2010-11 to 2014-15.

Large Scale Manufacturing: Punjab burea of statistics published the Quantum index of large scale manufacturing (LSM) for Punjab we have applied that index value on 2005-05 CMI data to estimate the Punjab share in National LSM value added. Once we have the value added of LSM for Punjab then we estimate the share of Lahore based on employment. The PDS provides the total employment by district for Punjab and we have used that to find Lahroe’s share in Punjab’s value of Production.

. . . . = . . ( ) . . ∗ . . = Value added in large scale manufacturing in Lahore for a year t.

. . = Value added in large scale manufacturing in Punjab for a year t.

. . = Employment in manufacturing sector in Punjab for a year t.

. . = Employment in manufacturing sector of Lahore for a year t.

3.4.2.3 Small Scale Manufacturing Punjab’s share in Small Scale manufacturing (SSM) is derived by using employment share in informal sector manufacturing. At national level the value added by this sector is estimated by applying a growth rate of 8.2 per cent per annum. We have used the same growth rate to avoied any discrepancy. The benchmark value for 2010-11 is estimated for Punjab by using its share in employed labor force in informal sector manufacturing of Punjab and Pakistan. This kind of data is available in labor force survey (LFS) published by PBS.

Since LFS is not a representative at district level, so we have to use another data source. PBS has published census of economic establishment 2006. It provides distribution of manufacturing units in Pakistan by size and by employment. We have estimated the bench mark value for Lahore district by estimating its share in total employment by SSM units in 2005-06 and applied a growth rate of 8.2 per cent per annum to compute Lahore’s contribution into small scale manufacturing value added.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Slaughtering Punjab’s share in slaughtering is derived by same methodology which is used in livestock. Per capita consumption expenditure on Mutton, Beef and Chicken Meat is taken from HIES. Convert this per capita consumption into annual provincial and national consumption. Series is extended to non HIES years by using standard interpolation techniques. Apply the share of Punjab on national value added in slaughtering.

 BE  MU  CM  VA VA * C.P.t C.P.t C.P.t  Sl.P.t Sl.N.T  BE  MU  CM   C.N.t C.N.t C.N.t 

BEC.P.t  (BEC.U .P.t * NU .P.t )  (BEC.R.P.t * NU .P.t )

BEC.N.t  (BEC.U .N.t * NU .N.t )  (BEC.R.N.t * NU .N.t )

MUC.P.t  (MUC.U .P.t * NU .P.t )  (MUC.R.P.t * NU .P.t ) MU  (MU * N )  (MU * N ) C.N.t C.U .N.t U .N.t C.R.N.t U .N.t CM C.P.t  (CM C.U .P.t * NU .P.t )  (CM C.R.P.t * NU .P.t )

CM C.N.t  (CM C.U .N.t * NU .N.t )  (CM C.R.N.t * NU .N.t )

VA Sl.P.t = Value Added in Slaughtering of Punjab in Year t.

VA Sl.N.t = Value Added in Slaughtering of Pakistan in Year t.

BE = Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

BE =Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U.P.t

BE = Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t C.R.P.t

BE = Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

BE =Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U.N.t

BE = Consumption Expenditures on Beef in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

MU = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

MU = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U .P.t

MU = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t. C.R.P.t

MU = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

MU = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U.N.t

ME = Consumption Expenditures on Mutton in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Chicken in Punjab in year t. C.P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Chicken in Urban Areas of Punjab in year t. C.U .P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Chicken in Rural Areas of Punjab in year t. C.R.P.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Chicken in Pakistan in year t. C.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditures on Chicken in Urban Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.U.N.t

CM = Consumption Expenditure on Chicken in Rural Areas of Pakistan in year t. C.R.N.t

N = Urban population of Pakistan in year t. U .N.t

N = Rural Population of Pakistan in Year t. R.N.t

N = Urban population of Punjab in year t. U .N.t

N = Rural Population of Punjab in Year t. R.N.t

The share of Lahore in slaughtering is estimated by using production approach. As discussed above the PDS provides district wise annual animal slaughtered in Punjab. The share of Lahore in slaughtering is estimated based on its share in total animal slaughtered in Punjab in year t.

Construction At national level value added in construction is estimated through expenditure approach. But such data is not available at provincial level. The share of Punjab is estimated through Income approach. As construction is a labor-intensive sector, the income earned by each employed person in construction is estimated for Lahore Punjab and Pakistan separately. We have computed the shares of Lahore and Punjab in construction on the bases of income earned by employed people in construction. The data on employment in construction at Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan level is taken from PSLMS. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

퐼. 퐶.푟.푇 푉퐴퐶.푟.푇 = 푉퐴퐶.푁.푇 ∗ ( ) 퐼. 퐶.푁.푇

푉퐴퐶.푟.푇= Value Added in Construction in region r for a year t.

푉퐴퐶.푁.푇= Value Added in Construction in Pakistan for a year t.

퐼. 퐶.푃.푇= Income earned by employed persons in Construction in region r for a year t.

퐼. 퐶푁.푇= Income earned by employed persons in Construction in Pakistan for a year t.

Where r represents the regions Lahore and Punjab.

Electricity and Gas Distribution Value Added in Electricity and Gas Distribution is estimated through production approach at national level. It includes electricity generation and transmission distribution, gas distribution and transmission and water supply. Since data was not available in the above-mentioned format at provincial level and district level, so we derived the share of Lahore and Punjab in each category by using same approach as explained in construction.

퐸퐺퐷.푟.푇 푉퐴퐸퐺.푟.푇 = 푉퐴퐸퐺.푁.푇 ∗ ( ) 퐸퐺퐷.푁.푇

푉퐴퐸퐺.푟.푇= Value Added in Electricity, Gas Distribution and water supply in region r for a year t.

푉퐴퐸퐺.푁.푇= Value Added in Electricity, Gas Distribution and water supply in Pakistan for a year t.

퐸퐺퐷.푃.푇= Income earned by employed persons in Electricity, Gas Distribution and water supply in region r for a year t.

퐸퐺퐷푁.푇= Income earned by employed persons in Electricity, Gas Distribution and water supply in Pakistan for a year t.

Where r represents the regions Lahore and Punjab.

SERVICES SECTOR

It includes services like wholesale & retail trade and hotels, transport, communication and storage services, finance and insurance, housing services, general government services and other private services.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Wholesale & retail trade and Hotels

We have used two step procedures again, we have estimated the share of Punjab in national value added of wholesale & retail trade and hotels by using expenditure approach. Per capita consumption expenditure for Pakistan and Punjab is taken separately from HIES, then convert per capita monthly consumption expenditures into annually provincial and national consumption expenditures. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

FWEX .P.t VAP.t =VAN.t * FWEX .N.t

FWEX .P.t = (FWEX .U .P.t * NU .P.t ) + (FWEX .R.P.t * N R.P.t )

FWEX .N.t = (FWEX .U .N.t * NU .N.t ) + (FWEX .R.N.t * N R.N.t )

VAP.t = Value Added of wholesale & retail trade in Punjab in year t.

VAN.t = Value Added of wholesale & retail trade in Pakistan in year t.

FWEX .P.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Punjab in year t.

FWEX .N.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Pakistan in Year t.

FWEX .U .P.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Urban Areas of Punjab in Year t.

FWEX .R.P.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Rural Areas of Punjab in Year t.

FWEX .U .N.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Urban Areas of Pakistan in Year t.

FWEX .R.N.t = Final consumption Expenditures in Rural Areas of Pakistan in Year t.

NU .N.t = Urban population of Pakistan in year t.

N R.N.t = Rural Population of Pakistan in Year t.

NU .N.t = Urban population of Punjab in year t.

N R.N.t = Rural Population of Punjab in Year t.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

We have used income approach to estimate the share of Lahore in national economy. We have computed the shares of Lahore in wholesale & retail trade on the bases of income earned by employed people in these activities. The data on employment in wholesale & retail trade at Lahore, and Pakistan level is taken from PSLMS. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

푊&푅.퐿.푇 푉퐴퐶.퐿.푇 = 푉퐴퐶.푁.푇 ∗ ( ) 푊&푅.푁.푇

푉퐴퐶.퐿.푇= Value Added in wholesale & retail trade in Lahore for a year t.

푉퐴퐶.푁.푇= Value Added in wholesale & retail trade in Pakistan for a year t.

푊&푅.퐿.푇= Income earned by employed persons in wholesale & retail trade in region r for a year t.

푊&푅푁.푇= Income earned by employed persons in wholesale & retail trade in Pakistan for a year t.

Transport, Communication and Storage

The share of Punjab in this sector is estimated by production approach. the share of Punjab is derived by using following indicators: share of Punjab in fuel consumption by of HSD, Motor spirit JF-1 and share of Punjab in mobile phone subscribers.

퐹퐻푀.푃.푇 퐹퐴.푃.푇 푀퐶.푃.푇 푉. 퐴푇.푃.푇 = 푉. 퐴푇.푁.푇 ∗ {( ∗ 푊푅푇) + ( ∗ 푊퐴) + ( ∗ 푊푀)} 퐹퐻푀.푁.푇 퐹퐴.푁.푇 푀퐶.푁.푇

푉. 퐴푇.푃.푇 = Value Added in Transport, Communication and Storage in Punjab for a year t.

푉. 퐴푇.푁.푇 = Value Added in Transport, Communication and Storage in Pakistan for a year t.

퐹퐻푀.푝.푇 = HSD and Motor Spirit consumption by Punjab in year t.

퐹퐴.푃.푇 = JF-1 consumed by Punjab in year t.

푀퐶.푃.푇 = Mobile Phone subscribers in Punjab in year t.

퐹퐻푀.푁.푇 = HSD and Motor Spirit consumption by Pakistan in year t.

퐹퐴.푁.푇 = JF-1 consumed by Pakistan in year t.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

. . = Mobile phone subscriber in Pakistan in year t.

= Share of road transport in value added at national level.

= Share of air transport in total value added at national level.

= Share of communication in total value added at national level.

After estimating the share of Punjab in National value added then we have estimated the share of Lahore in National and Provincial GDP. The share is estimated by using the share of these sectors in the total tax revenue from these sectors.

...... = . . . {( )+ +( )} . . . . ∗ ∗ ∗ . . . = Value Added in Transport, Communication and Storage in Punjab for a year t.

. . . = Value Added in Transport, Communication and Storage in Pakistan for a year t.

. . = Withholding tax revenue from petroleum and transport by lahore in year t.

. . = Withholding tax revenue from telecom from Lahore in year t.

. . = Withholding tax revenue from petroleum and transport from Pakistan in year t.

. . = Withholding tax revenue from telecom from Pakistan in year t.

= Share of Transport in National value added

= Share of communication in national value added

Finance and Insurance

The share of Punjab in this sector is estimated through production approach. The share of Punjab in total advances and deposits is used as a proxy to estimate its share in the value added of this sector. The share of Lahore has estimated on the basis of its share in withholding tax revenue from dividend, bank and securities, cash withdrawals and stock exchange.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Housing services The share of Punjab estimated through expenditure approach. HIES provides expenditure by household on housing services. We have used this information for estimating the contribution of Punjab in the value added of this sector. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

. . . . = . . ( ) . . ∗ . . = Value Added in housing services in Punjab for a year t.

. . = Value Added in housing services in Pakistan for a year t.

. = Expenditure on housing services by in Punjab for a year t.

. = Expenditure on housing services in Pakistan for a year t.

The share of Lahore is estimated by its share in withholding tax on immovable property and rents.

. . . . = . . ( ) . . ∗ . . = Value Added in housing services in Lahore for a year t.

. . = Value Added in housing services in Pakistan for a year t.

. = Withholding tax collection from immovable property tax and rented income at RTO and LTU offices situated in Lahore.

. = Withholding tax collection from immovable property and rented income for Pakistan in year t.

General Government Services

We have computed the shares of Lahore and Punjab in this sector on the bases of income earned by employed people in General Government Services. The data on employment in construction at Lahore, Punjab and Pakistan level is taken from PSLMS. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

. . . = . . ( ) . ∗ . . = Value Added in Construction in region r for a year t.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

. . = Value Added in Construction in Pakistan for a year t.

. = Income earned by employed persons in General Government Services in region r for a year t.

. = Income earned by employed persons in General Government Services in Pakistan for a year t.

Where r represents the regions Lahore and Punjab.

Other Private Services

The share of Punjab is estimated through Income approach. As we did in the construction and housing services sectors. LFS and HIES survey provides the income earned by each employed person in other private service. We have used this information for estimating the contribution of Punjab in the value added of this sector respectively. Values for missing years are estimated through standard interpolation techniques.

. . . . = . . ( ) . . ∗ . . = Value Added in housing services in Punjab for a year t.

. . = Value Added in housing services in Pakistan for a year t.

. = Income earned by employed persons in other private services in Punjab for a year t.

. = Income earned by employed persons in other private services in Pakistan for a year t.

The share of Lahore is estimated by the production approach. PDS provides district wise data on capital owned by co-operative societies in Punjab. The share of Lahore is estimated on the basis of its share in capital owned by co-operative societies.

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Sta�s�cal Annexure

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 1: Value Added by sector for Lahore at constant factor cost of 2005-06

Rs million

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 46,173 46,275 41,235 39,038 50,321 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 6,269 6,168 5,986 5,350 5,251 i) Important Crops 3,069 3,268 3,068 2,750 2,585 ii) Other Crops 3,200 2,900 2,918 2,601 2,666 iii) Co�on Ginning 2. Livestock 39,660 39,884 35,010 33,444 44,811 3. Forestry 4. Fishing 244 223 239 244 259 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 159,840 158,708 153,808 166,752 182,271 1. Mining and Quarrying 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 106,266 108,049 113,275 127,014 133,746 i) Large Scale 91,058 91,396 95,673 108,502 112,285 ii) Small Scale 12,654 13,702 14,837 16,065 17,396 iii) Slaughtering 2,554 2,951 2,766 2,447 4,065 3 Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on 33,206 29,007 18,396 15,730 15,377 4. Construc�on 20,368 21,653 22,137 24,009 33,148 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 206,013 204,983 195,043 205,790 232,592 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 739,681 841,555 887,368 981,376 994,547 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 188,136 186,149 191,215 198,781 195,000 2. Transport, Storage & Communica�on 258,535 314,038 336,740 383,449 368,482 3. Finance & Insurance 17,145 19,778 26,979 28,906 30,895 4. Housing Services (OD) 103,186 122,286 125,904 145,297 164,236 5. General Government Services 98,150 115,200 112,641 119,165 116,948 6. Other Private Services 74,528 84,104 93,889 105,778 118,984 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 945,694 1,046,539 1,082,412 1,187,166 1,227,139

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 2: Value Added by sector for Rest of Punjab at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 1,213,006 1,267,862 1,294,605 1,298,904 1,299,321 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 556,819 578,722 580,037 569,453 552,253 i) Important Crops 380,047 403,194 395,504 395,985 372,332 ii) Other Crops 152,905 143,076 156,393 146,266 149,934 iii) Cotton Ginning 23,867 32,452 28,140 27,202 29,987 2. Livestock 626,719 657,950 682,595 697,559 716,993 3. Forestry 19,996 21,430 22,138 21,861 19,470 4. Fishing 9,472 9,760 9,834 10,031 10,606 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 752,414 762,140 772,664 825,486 908,378 1. Mining and Quarrying 52,770 55,155 59,778 57,407 67,812 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 528,007 534,510 562,404 585,292 613,482 i) Large Scale 405,807 403,400 422,274 435,455 453,964 ii) Small Scale 82,719 89,569 96,988 105,020 113,718 iii) Slaughtering 39,481 41,541 43,143 44,817 45,801 3 Electricity generation and Gas distribution 66,198 71,440 55,295 57,160 67,050 4. Construction 105,439 101,034 95,186 125,627 160,034 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 1,965,420 2,030,002 2,067,269 2,124,390 2,207,699 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 1,997,566 2,076,734 2,230,517 2,342,051 2,557,878 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 781,668 804,491 859,347 928,719 946,880 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 369,520 368,266 388,673 390,237 525,278 3. Finance & Insurance 111,719 108,881 111,247 115,361 120,533 4. Housing Services (OD) 223,045 236,694 243,630 235,095 229,400 5. General Government Services 142,365 156,028 193,956 201,052 223,892 6. Other Private Services 369,248 402,375 433,664 471,588 511,895 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 3,962,987 4,106,737 4,297,785 4,466,441 4,765,577

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 3: Value Added by sector for Punjab at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 1,259,179 1,314,137 1,335,840 1,337,942 1,349,642 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 563,088 584,890 586,023 574,803 557,504 i) Important Crops 383,116 406,461 398,573 398,734 374,918 ii) Other Crops 156,105 145,976 159,311 148,867 152,600 iii) Co�on Ginning 23,867 32,452 28,140 27,202 29,987 2. Livestock 666,379 697,834 717,605 731,003 761,803 3. Forestry 19,996 21,430 22,138 21,861 19,470 4. Fishing 9,716 9,983 10,074 10,275 10,865 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 912,254 920,848 926,472 992,239 1,090,649 1. Mining and Quarrying 52,770 55,155 59,778 57,407 67,812 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 634,273 642,559 675,679 712,306 747,228 i) Large Scale 496,865 494,796 517,947 543,957 566,248 ii) Small Scale 95,372 103,271 111,824 121,085 131,114 iii) Slaughtering 42,035 44,492 45,909 47,264 49,866 3 Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on 99,405 100,447 73,691 72,890 82,427 4. Construc�on 125,807 122,688 117,324 149,636 193,182 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 2,171,434 2,234,986 2,262,312 2,330,180 2,440,291 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 2,737,247 2,918,290 3,117,885 3,323,427 3,552,424 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 969,805 990,640 1,050,562 1,127,500 1,141,880 2. Transport, Storage & Communica�on 628,055 682,303 725,413 773,686 893,761 3. Finance & Insurance 128,865 128,659 138,226 144,266 151,428 4. Housing Services (OD) 326,231 358,981 369,534 380,392 393,636 5. General Government Services 240,515 271,228 306,597 320,217 340,840 6. Other Private Services 443,777 486,479 527,554 577,366 630,878 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 4,908,681 5,153,275 5,380,197 5,653,607 5,992,715

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 4: Value Added by sector for Rest of Pakistan at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 717,999 734,657 767,760 818,175 852,401 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 243,074 247,238 258,837 292,330 310,990 i) Important Crops 102,606 117,475 126,266 163,973 178,650 ii) Other Crops 108,829 99,031 99,359 95,023 97,406 iii) Cotton Ginning 31,639 30,733 33,211 33,334 34,933 2. Livestock 421,027 432,906 452,107 467,668 484,709 3. Forestry 22,125 21,444 23,557 24,694 21,291 4. Fishing 31,773 33,069 33,259 33,483 35,411 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 1,022,768 1,063,468 1,072,735 1,097,537 1,107,378 1. Mining and Quarrying 217,028 228,572 234,949 241,449 245,895 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 592,818 610,111 637,686 675,250 694,233 i) Large Scale 510,466 523,910 546,238 578,309 592,804 ii) Small Scale 38,184 41,442 44,867 48,592 52,493 iii) Slaughtering 44,169 44,759 46,580 48,349 48,936 3 Electricity generation and Gas distribution 121,974 124,043 91,584 91,164 103,747 4. Construction 90,947 100,741 108,516 89,674 63,503 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 1,740,766 1,798,124 1,840,495 1,915,713 1,959,779 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 2,470,889 2,518,855 2,598,363 2,647,736 2,679,155 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 748,209 755,871 757,562 766,910 801,732 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 570,841 571,823 579,284 581,884 530,494 3. Finance & Insurance 145,809 150,512 164,166 171,162 184,020 4. Housing Services (OD) 288,229 280,022 295,008 310,701 325,038 5. General Government Services 328,676 360,902 397,120 403,606 417,906 6. Other Private Services 389,124 399,725 405,222 413,473 419,966 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 4,211,655 4,316,980 4,438,858 4,563,449 4,638,934

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 5: Value Added by sector for Pakistan at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 1,977,178 2,048,794 2,103,600 2,156,117 2,202,043 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 806,162 832,128 844,860 867,133 868,494 i) Important Crops 485,722 523,936 524,839 562,707 553,568 ii) Other Crops 264,934 245,007 258,670 243,890 250,006 iii) Co�on Ginning 55,506 63,185 61,351 60,536 64,920 2. Livestock 1,087,406 1,130,740 1,169,712 1,198,671 1,246,512 3. Forestry 42,121 42,874 45,695 46,555 40,761 4. Fishing 41,489 43,052 43,333 43,758 46,276 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 1,935,022 1,984,316 1,999,207 2,089,776 2,198,027 1. Mining and Quarrying 269,798 283,727 294,727 298,856 313,707 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 1,227,091 1,252,670 1,313,365 1,387,556 1,441,461 i) Large Scale 1,007,331 1,018,706 1,064,185 1,122,266 1,159,052 ii) Small Scale 133,556 144,713 156,691 169,677 183,607 iii) Slaughtering 86,204 89,251 92,489 95,613 98,802 3 Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on 221,379 224,490 165,275 164,054 186,174 4. Construc�on 216,754 223,429 225,840 239,310 256,685 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 3,912,200 4,033,110 4,102,807 4,245,893 4,400,070 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 5,208,136 5,437,145 5,716,248 5,971,163 6,231,579 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,718,014 1,746,511 1,808,124 1,894,410 1,943,612 2. Transport, Storage & Communica�on 1,198,896 1,254,126 1,304,697 1,355,570 1,424,255 3. Finance & Insurance 274,674 279,171 302,392 315,428 335,448 4. Housing Services (OD) 614,460 639,003 664,542 691,093 718,674 5. General Government Services 569,191 632,130 703,717 723,823 758,746 6. Other Private Services 832,901 886,204 932,776 990,839 1,050,844 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 9,120,336 9,470,255 9,819,055 10,217,056 10,631,649

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 6: Sectoral Shares in GDP of Lahore at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector (1 to 4) 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 4.1 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 i) Important Crops 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 ii) Other Crops 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 iii) Cotton Ginning - - - - - 2. Livestock 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.7 3. Forestry - - - - - 4. Fishing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 16.9 15.2 14.2 14.0 14.9 1. Mining and Quarrying - - - - - 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 11.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 i) Large Scale 9.6 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.2 ii) Small Scale 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 iii) Slaughtering 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 3 Electricity generation and Gas distribution 3.5 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 4. Construction 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.7 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 21.8 19.6 18.0 17.3 19.0 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 78.2 80.4 82.0 82.7 81.0 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 19.9 17.8 17.7 16.7 15.9 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 27.3 30.0 31.1 32.3 30.0 3. Finance & Insurance 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 4. Housing Services (OD) 10.9 11.7 11.6 12.2 13.4 5. General Government Services 10.4 11.0 10.4 10.0 9.5 6. Other Private Services 7.9 8.0 8.7 8.9 9.7 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 7: Sectoral Shares in GDP of Rest of Punjab at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 30.6 30.9 30.1 29.1 27.3 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 14.1 14.1 13.5 12.7 11.6 i) Important Crops 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.9 7.8 ii) Other Crops 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.1 iii) Co�on Ginning 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 2. Livestock 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.0 3. Forestry 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 4. Fishing 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 19.0 18.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 1. Mining and Quarrying 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 13.3 13.0 13.1 13.1 12.9 i) Large Scale 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 ii) Small Scale 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 iii) Slaughtering 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3 Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 4. Construc�on 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.4 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 49.6 49.4 48.1 47.6 46.3 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 50.4 50.6 51.9 52.4 53.7 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 19.7 19.6 20.0 20.8 19.9 2. Transport, Storage & Communica�on 9.3 9.0 9.0 8.7 11.0 3. Finance & Insurance 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 4. Housing Services (OD) 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.3 4.8 5. General Government Services 3.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 6. Other Private Services 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.6 10.7 GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 8: Sectoral Shares in GDP of Punjab at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 25.7 25.5 24.8 23.7 22.5 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.2 9.3 i) Important Crops 7.8 7.9 7.4 7.1 6.3 ii) Other Crops 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 iii) Cotton Ginning 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 2. Livestock 13.6 13.5 13.3 12.9 12.7 3. Forestry 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 4. Fishing 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 18.6 17.9 17.2 17.6 18.2 1. Mining and Quarrying 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 12.9 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 i) Large Scale 10.1 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.4 ii) Small Scale 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 iii) Slaughtering 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 3 Electricity generation and Gas distribution 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 4. Construction 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.2 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 44.2 43.4 42.0 41.2 40.7 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 55.8 56.6 58.0 58.8 59.3 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 19.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 19.1 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.9 3. Finance & Insurance 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 4. Housing Services (OD) 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 5. General Government Services 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 6. Other Private Services 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 GDP {Total of GVA* at bp** (A+B+C)} 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 *Gross Value Added **Basic Prices

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 9: Sectoral Shares in GDP of Rest of Pakistan at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.4 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.4 6.7 i) Important Crops 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.9 ii) Other Crops 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 iii) Co�on Ginning 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 2. Livestock 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.4 3. Forestry 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4. Fishing 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 24.3 24.6 24.2 24.1 23.9 1. Mining and Quarrying 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.0 i) Large Scale 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.7 12.8 ii) Small Scale 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 iii) Slaughtering 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3 Electricity genera�on and Gas distribu�on 2.9 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 4. Construc�on 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.4 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 41.3 41.7 41.5 42.0 42.2 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 58.7 58.3 58.5 58.0 57.8 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.8 17.3 2. Transport, Storage & Communica�on 13.6 13.2 13.1 12.8 11.4 3. Finance & Insurance 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4. Housing Services (OD) 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 5. General Government Services 7.8 8.4 8.9 8.8 9.0 6. Other Private Services 9.2 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.1 GDP {Total of GVA* at bp** (A+B+C)} 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 *Gross Value Added **Basic Prices

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE

Table 10: Sectoral Shares in GDP of Pakistan at constant factor cost of 2005-06

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 30.6 30.9 30.1 29.1 27.3 1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 14.1 14.1 13.5 12.7 11.6 i) Important Crops 9.6 9.8 9.2 8.9 7.8 ii) Other Crops 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.1 iii) Cotton Ginning 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 2. Livestock 15.8 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.0 3. Forestry 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 4. Fishing 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 19.0 18.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 1. Mining and Quarrying 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 13.3 13.0 13.1 13.1 12.9 i) Large Scale 10.2 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 ii) Small Scale 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 iii) Slaughtering 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3 Electricity generation and Gas distribution 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 4. Construction 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.4 Commodity Producing Sectors (A+B) 49.6 49.4 48.1 47.6 46.3 Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 50.4 50.6 51.9 52.4 53.7 1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 19.7 19.6 20.0 20.8 19.9 2. Transport, Storage & Communication 9.3 9.0 9.0 8.7 11.0 3. Finance & Insurance 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 4. Housing Services (OD) 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.3 4.8 5. General Government Services 3.6 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 6. Other Private Services 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.6 10.7 GDP {Total of GVA* at bp** (A+B+C)} 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 *Gross Value Added **Basic Prices

THE SIZE AND GROWTH OF LAHORE