The Federal Reserve's Response to the 1987 Market Crash
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Stock Market Performance Over Last 30 Years
SECURITY BENEFIT Stock Market Performance Over Last 30 Years 4000 Dec. 31, 2020 S&P closed at 3733.27 Dec. 31, 2019 S&P closed at 3215.18 3000 Dec. 31, 2014 S&P closed above 2,000 for the first time Mar. 1, 2020 Value ® A 20% decline in the Jan. 14, 2000 Oct. 9, 2007 peak S&P due to the 2000 Dot-com bubble End of 2000 Bull Covid-19 Pandemic peaks at 1465.15 market 1565.15 S&P 500 S&P Mar. & Aug. 2015 Two flash crashes of 2015 - attributed to the rise of algorithmic trading 1995–1997 1000 Beginning of the dot-com bubble August 8, 2011 Black Monday 2011 Market decline following Oct. 9, 2002 March 9, 2009 US debt downgrade from A 47% decline in the A 57% decline in the AAA to AA+ S&P from the peak of peak S&P from the peak the dot-com bubble of the housing bubble 0 Dec. 1990 Dec. 1995 Dec. 2000 Dec. 2005 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2020 Your path To and Through Retirement® begins here. Talk to your financial professional to learn more or contact us at 800.888.2461. Neither Security Benefit Life Insurance Company, First Security Benefit Life Insurance and Annuity companies are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Company of New York, Albany, NY, nor Security Distributors is a fiduciary and the information Jones, S&P or their respective affiliates and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P provided is not intended to be investment advice. -
A Taylor Rule and the Greenspan Era
Economic Quarterly—Volume 93, Number 3—Summer 2007—Pages 229–250 A Taylor Rule and the Greenspan Era Yash P. Mehra and Brian D. Minton here is considerable interest in determining whether monetary policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan T can be summarized by a Taylor rule. The original Taylor rule relates the federal funds rate target to two economic variables: lagged inflation and the output gap, with the actual federal funds rate completely adjusting to the target in each period (Taylor 1993).1 The later assumption of complete adjustment has often been interpreted as indicating the policy rule is “non-inertial,” or the Federal Reserve does not smooth interest rates. Inflation in the original Taylor rule is measured by the behavior of the GDP deflator and the output gap is the deviation of the log of real output from a linear trend. Taylor (1993) shows that from 1987 to 1992 policy actions did not differ significantly from prescriptions of this simple rule. Hence, according to the original Taylor rule, the Federal Reserve, at least during the early part of the Greenspan era, was backward looking, focused on headline inflation, and followed a non-inertial policy rule. Recent research, however, suggests a different picture of the Federal Re- serve under Chairman Greenspan. English, Nelson, and Sack (2002) present evidence that indicates policy actions during the Greenspan period are better explained by an “inertial” Taylor rule reflecting the presence of interest rate smoothing.2 Blinder and Reis (2005) state that the Greenspan Fed focused on We would like to thank Andreas Hornstein, Robert Hetzel, Roy Webb, and Nashat Moin for their comments. -
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913
THE FEDERAL RESERVE ACT OF 1913 HISTORY AND DIGEST by V. GILMORE IDEN PUBLISHED BY THE NATIONAL BANK NEWS PHILADELPHIA Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Copyright, 1914 by Ccrtttiois Bator Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis History of Federal Reserve Act History N MONDAY, October 21, 1907, the Na O tional Bank of Commerce of New York City announced its refusal to clear for the Knickerbocker Trust Company of the same city. The trust company had deposits amounting to $62,000,000. The next day, following a run of three hours, the Knickerbocker Trust Company paid out $8,000,000 and then suspended. One immediate result was that banks, acting independently, held on tight to the cash they had in their vaults, and money went to a premium. Ac cording to the experts who investigated the situation, this panic was purely a bankers’ panic and due entirely to our system of banking, which bases the protection of the financial solidity of the country upon the individual reserves of banks. In the case of a stress, such as in 1907, the banks fail to act as a whole, their first consideration being the protec tion of their own reserves. PAGE 5 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis History of Federal Reserve Act The conditions surrounding previous panics were entirely different. -
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The Financial System and Global Socioeconomic Cbanges Yuichiro Nagatomi Occasional Paper No.4 Yuichiro Nagatomi is President of the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, Japan This paper originated as a lecture given at the "Regulating International Financial Markets: Issues and Policies" conference, held at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in May, 1990. The conference was sponsored by the Center on Japanese Economy and Business and the Center for the Study of Futures Markets at Columbia University, the Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy of the Ministry of Finance, Japan, and the Foundation for Advanced Information and Research (FAIR), Japan. Occasional Paper Series Center on Japanese Economy and Business Graduate School of Business Columbia University June 1990 I have a few comments on some recent changes in financial structure and also changes in the effects of monetary policy which perhaps need more discussion. 1. Socio-Economic Structure Changes: "Softnomization" The industrialized countries - the United States, Japan, and Europe - attained modernization and industrialization after the Industrial Revolution. In recent years, their socio-economic structures have been changing in a way we call "softnomization". In pre-modern times, people lived with nature's cycle - the "path of nature" or the "soft path". The "path of mechanization and automation" or the "hard path", pursued in the process of modernization and industrialization has blessed mankind with material affluence. It also has brought about "global environmental problems and maladies to advanced nations, such as drug use and other urban crimes, and it has deteriorated the vitality and quality of the society. "Softnomization" means a softening of the hard path, by seeking harmony between the "hard path" of modern times and the "soft path" of pre-modern times. -
Speech: Would More Regulation Prevent Another Black Monday?, July 20, 1988
u.S.Securities and Exchange Commission [N]@\Wl~ Washington,D. C. 20549 (202) 272-2650 ~@~@@~@ WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum Washington, D.C. July 20, 19.88 Joseph A. Grundfest Commissioner The views expressed herein are those of Commissioner Grundfest and do not necessarily represent those of the Commission, other Commissioners, or Commission staff. WOULD MORE REGULATION PREVENT ANOTHER BLACK MONDAY? Remarks to the CATO Institute Policy Forum July 21, 1988 Joseph A. Grundfest It's a pleasure to be here this afternoon to deliver an address on such a noncontroversial topic. Government regulators in Washington, D.C. have a well deserved reputation for dancing around difficult issues and not giving straight answers to simple questions. Well, I'd like to prove that I'm not your typical Washington, D.C. regulator and give you a straight answer to the question, "Would more regulation prevent another Black Monday?" The answer is an unequivocable yes, no, and maybe. The answer also depends on what you mean by more regulation and why you believe the market declined on Black Monday. With that issue cleared up, I'd like to thank all of you for attending and invite you to join the reception being held immediately after this speech. Thank you very much. It's been a pleasure. Actually, the question of whether more regulation could prevent another Black Monday is not as difficult as it seems, if you keep three factors in mind. First, it is important to distinguish between fundamental factors that initiated or contributed to the decline, and regulatory or structural factors that may have unnecessarily exacerbated the decline. -
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND On Oct. 19, 1987, “Black Monday,” the DJIA fell 507.99 (508) points to 1,738.74, a drop of 22.6% or $500 billion dollars of its value-- the largest single-day percentage drop in history. Volume surges to a then record of 604 million shares. Two days later, the DJIA recovered 289 points or 16.6% of its loss. It took two years for the DJIA to fully recover its losses, setting the stage for the longest bull market in U.S. history. Date Close Change Change % 10/19/87 1,738.70 -508.00 -22.6 10/20/87 1,841.00 102.30 5.9 10/21/87 2,027.90 186.90 10.2 Quick Facts on October 11, 1987 • DJIA fell 507.99 points to 1,738.74, a 22.6% drop (DJIA had opened at 2246.74 that day) o Record decline at that time o Friday, Oct. 16, DJIA fell 108 points, completing a 9.5 percent drop for the week o Aug. 1987, DJIA reached 2722.42, an all-time high; up 48% over prior 10 months o Today, DJIA above 14,000 • John Phelan, NYSE Chairman/CEO -- Credited with effective management of the crisis. A 23-year veteran of the trading floor, he became NYSE president in 1980 and chairman and chief executive officer in 1984, serving until 1990 NYSE Statistics (1987, then vs. now) 1987 Today (and current records) ADV - ytd 1987 (thru 10/19): 181.5 mil ADV – 1.76 billion shares (NYSE only) shares 10/19/1987: 604.3 million shares (reference ADV above) 10/20/1987: 608.1* million shares (reference ADV above) Oct. -
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 27–28, 2021
_____________________________________________________________________________________________Page 1 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 27–28, 2021 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, and the Board of Governors was held by videoconfer- Board of Governors ence on Tuesday, April 27, 2021, at 9:30 a.m. and con- tinued on Wednesday, April 28, 2021, at 9:00 a.m.1 Matthew J. Eichner,2 Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of PRESENT: Governors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division Jerome H. Powell, Chair of Supervision and Regulation, Board of John C. Williams, Vice Chair Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Director, Division of Thomas I. Barkin Financial Stability, Board of Governors Raphael W. Bostic Michelle W. Bowman Sally Davies, Deputy Director, Division of Lael Brainard International Finance, Board of Governors Richard H. Clarida Mary C. Daly Jon Faust, Senior Special Adviser to the Chair, Division Charles L. Evans of Board Members, Board of Governors Randal K. Quarles Christopher J. Waller Joshua Gallin, Special Adviser to the Chair, Division of Board Members, Board of Governors James Bullard, Esther L. George, Naureen Hassan, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, Alternate William F. Bassett, Antulio N. Bomfim, Wendy E. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Dunn, Burcu Duygan-Bump, Jane E. Ihrig, Kurt F. Lewis, and Chiara Scotti, Special Advisers to the Patrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, and Neel Kashkari, Board, Division of Board Members, Board of Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Governors Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis, respectively Carol C. Bertaut, Senior Associate Director, Division James A. -
Recent Monetary Policy in the US
Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works Faculty Publications 6-2005 Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles Anastasios G. Malliaris Loyola University Chicago, [email protected] Marc D. Hayford Loyola University Chicago, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/business_facpubs Part of the Business Commons Author Manuscript This is a pre-publication author manuscript of the final, published article. Recommended Citation Malliaris, Anastasios G. and Hayford, Marc D.. Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2, 1: 25-39, 2005. Retrieved from Loyola eCommons, School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.jeca.2005.01.002 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Publications at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. © Elsevier B. V. 2005 Recent Monetary Policy in the U.S.: Risk Management of Asset Bubbles Marc D. Hayford Loyola University Chicago A.G. Malliaris1 Loyola University Chicago Abstract: Recently Chairman Greenspan (2003 and 2004) has discussed a risk management approach to the implementation of monetary policy. This paper explores the economic environment of the 1990s and the policy dilemmas the Fed faced given the stock boom from the mid to late 1990s to after the bust in 2000-2001. -
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises an Encyclopedia
The 100 Most Important American Financial Crises An Encyclopedia of the Lowest Points in American Economic History Quentin R. Skrabec Jr. Q GREENWOOD AN IMPRINT OF ABC-CLIO, LLC Santa Barbara, California • Denver, Colorado • Oxford, England Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction xvii 1676—Bacon's Rebellion 1 1703—Tobacco Depression 4 1719—Mississippi Bubble 6 1733—Molasses Act 9 1749—Colonial Hyperinflation and Currency Deflation 12 1750—IronAct 15 1762—Colonial Recession 17 1764-1765—Sugar Act, Currency Act, and Stamp Act Boycotts 19 1772—Credit Crisis 22 1776—War Financing Crisis 24 1781—Currency Deflation and Inflation 28 1790—Debt Assumption, Debt Retirement, and Expanding the Economy 31 1792—Panic 33 1794—Whiskey Tax Rebellion 37 1796-1797—Panic 40 1800—Trade Interference by Barbary Coast Pirates 43 1807—Economic Embargo and Depression 45 1812—War of 1812 48 vii viii | Contents 1816-1819—Economic Warfare and Dumping by Great Britain 51 1819—Panic 53 1820s—Cotton Recession 56 1825—British Panic and Its American Impact 58 1828—Tariff of Abominations 60 1833—Andrew Jackson Closes the Bank of the United States and Lowers Tariffs 63 1837—Panic and Six-Year Depression 66 1847—Panic 69 1848—Gold Rush Boom and Bust 71 1850—Whale Oil Shortage: The First Energy Crisis 73 1854—Panic 76 1854—Deel ine of American Canals 78 1857—Panic 81 1861—Civil War Economics, Shortages, and Inflation 83 1862—Union Blockade and Inflation 85 1869—Grant's Recession 88 1873—Panic and Global Depression 90 1877—Great National Railroad Strike 93 1880s—New -
Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long-Term
Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long- Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Working Paper 2012-036A http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-036.pdf September 2012 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Phone (314) 444-8582 FAX (314) 444-8731 Email Address: [email protected] August 2012 Abstract In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was severed in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan’s observation. The paper hypothesize that the change occurred because the Federal Open Market Committee switched from using the federal funds rate as an operating instrument to using it to implement monetary policy and presents evidence from a variety of sources supporting the hypothesis. -
Statement / by Donald Kohn ... Before the Subcommittee On
Testimony Donald L. Kohn, Vice Chairman Federal Reserve independence Before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. July 9, 2009 Chairman Watt, Ranking Member Paul, and other members of the Subcommittee, I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with you the important public policy reasons why the Congress has long given the Federal Reserve a substantial degree of independence to conduct monetary policy while ensuring that we remain accountable to the Congress and to the American people. In addition, I will explain why an extension of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory and regulatory responsibilities as part of a broader initiative to address systemic risks would be compatible with the pursuit of our statutory monetary policy objectives. I also will discuss the significant steps the Federal Reserve has taken recently to improve our transparency and maintain accountability. Independence and Accountability A well-designed framework for monetary policy includes a careful balance between independence and accountability. A balance of this type conforms to our general inclination as a nation to have clearly drawn lines of authority, limited powers, and appropriate checks and balances within our government; such a balance also is conducive to sound monetary policy. The Federal Reserve derives much of the authority under which it operates from the Federal Reserve Act. The act specifies and limits the Federal Reserve’s powers. In 1977, the Congress amended the act by establishing maximum employment and price stability as our monetary policy objectives; the Federal Reserve has no authority to establish different objectives. -
Fed Chair Power Rating
Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Name: Date: Directions: Sports fans often assign a “power rating” to teams and players to measure their strength. In today’s activity, we will research some of the most recent chairs of the Federal Reserve and assign them “power ratings” to express how truly influential they have been in the United States economy. In this activity, we will judge each person’s prerequisites, ability to play defense and offense. Chair (circle one): Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 1. Prerequisites will be measured by academic background, research, and previous career qualifications. 2. Offensive acumen will be evaluated using the chair’s major accomplishments while in office and whether he/she was successful in accomplishing the goals for which he/she was originally selected. 3. Defensive strength will be determined by the chair’s ability to overcome obstacles, both in the economy and political pressures, while holding the chairmanship. 4. The chair in question may receive 1-4 points for each category. The rubric for awarding points is as follows: 1 - extremely weak 2 - relatively weak 3 - relatively strong 4 - extremely strong 5. BONUS! Your group may award up to 2 bonus points for other significant accomplishments not listed in the first three categories. You may also choose to subtract up to 2 points for major blunders or problems that emerged as a result of the chair’s policies. 6. This is a group activity, so remember that you and your team members must come to a consensus! Prerequisites Offensive Acumen Defensive Strength Other Details Power 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 Rating Overall Power Rating is __________________________________ 1 Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Strengths Weaknesses Overall Impression Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 2 .