Paths of Ruin: Why Revisionist States

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Paths of Ruin: Why Revisionist States PATHS OF RUIN: WHY REVISIONIST STATES ARISE AND DIE IN WORLD POLITICS A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Jason M.K. Lyall May 2005 2 © 2005 Jason M.K. Lyall 3 PATHS OF RUIN: WHY REVISIONIST STATES ARISE AND DIE IN WORLD POLITICS Jason M.K. Lyall, Ph.D. Cornell University 2005 Why do revisionist states arise and die in world politics? I argue that the origins of a revisionist’s emergence and “death” stem from the same source: the nature of the collective identity that a regime uses to legitimate its rule at home and abroad. Revisionists share a key ideational trait in the form of exclusive, often contradictory, identity projects that entrap regimes into pursuing risky strategies of revisionism. Indeed, the path dependent properties of identity gradually entrap regimes into suboptimal policies marked by reliance on high-risk, high-gain strategies. Two mechanisms – domestic counter-mobilization and the security dilemma – serve to lock regimes onto these paths. Over time, state security is sacrificed to the demands of regime survival, leaving regimes unprepared for the conflicts that their rhetoric has forced them to pursue. Regime death is often the result. Multiple methods are used to demonstrate the causal link between identity and behavior. A large-N study of revisionist success rates (1815-2000) is combined with two paired historical comparisons: a method-of-agreement comparison of Napoleon III’s France (1848-71) and Pakistan (1947-71) and a method-of-difference treatment of France (1815-48) and the Soviet Union (1917-45). The prospects of a resurgent Russia are also explored using a longitudinal study of the postcommunist era (1993-2004). This case employs computer-assisted content analysis of official statements (N=1096), field research (interviews and participant observation), and comparative event data of foreign policy behavior. Three conclusions are reached. First, collective identity plays a crucial role in shaping the nature of grand strategy and its effectiveness. Collective identities can narrow 4 choices available to elites, ultimately entrapping regimes on suboptimal “paths of ruin.” Second, there is a limited set of robust and generalizable paths to revisionism that are created by exclusive, often fragmented, collective identities. Third, to explain revisionism fully we must adopt theoretical approaches and research designs able to capture the slow unfolding of identity politics between a regime and its society over time. Films, not snapshots, are required if we are to understand that the origins of revisionism lie in cumulative effects set in motion by the creation and defense of a regime’s identity project. 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There is a story of uncertain provenance that has a poor farmer granted a wish by a mysterious visitor to his fields. All that the farmer can encircle in one day, he is told, will be his, if only he can return to the same fields before next morning’s sunrise. If he fails, however, he forfeits all his possessions. Setting off in haste, our farmer encounters new wonders, each surpassing the last, each taking him farther from his familiar fields – and, of course, farther from the point of (no) return. Belatedly, our farmer realizes he has wandered too far afield, and in desperation he turns for home, chasing a rising sun. That I managed to wander so far afield yet still complete the circle is a testament to my committee: Peter Katzenstein (Chair), Valerie Bunce, Matthew Evangelista, and Christopher Way. I owe these four a debt that I cannot repay, in part for the sound advice each freely offered but mostly for taking a chance on me. I will always cherish my time at Cornell, a wondrous place where disciplinary boundaries dissolve and “big” questions are not just encouraged but expected. Each committee member contributed in his or her own way to this dissertation. Whatever insights lie in the following pages are a testament to the rigor they demanded and the confidence they inspired. The list of people who helped along the way is also long. I was fortunate to be an Exchange Scholar at Harvard University, where Iain Johnston, Stephen Rosen, Timothy Colton, Yoshiko Herrera, and Lisa Martin opened their classes to me. The Harvard Identity Project (HIP) has also been an invisible college of sorts for those interested in conducting research on identity. I thank Rawi Abdelal, Yoshiko Herrera, Iain Johnston, and Rose McDermott for including me in its activities. I also thank Joe Bond and Doug Bond for use of their VRA Reader Data. Similarly, I was also a Visiting Scholar at the European University at St. Petersburg, Russia, during the fall 2001 semester. I thank Ted Hopf, Eduard Ponarin, Nikita Lomagin, Pavel Lyssakov, and Milanna Streltsina for early discussions on the 6 nature of post-communist Russia. Thanks also to Shauna Gamache for a timely airport rescue. At EUSP, Milanna Streltsina, Lena Batienko, Olga Kobizeva, Anna Lichtenstein, and Anna Tolkachova performed the thankless task of conducting intercoder reliability tests for the computer-assisted content analysis employed here. I also incurred numerous debts during my field research in Moscow and St. Petersburg. I have respected the wishes of my interviewees to maintain their anonymity. I would, however, like to thank all of the journalists, human rights activists, state officials, and scholars who graciously agreed to be interviewed or who provided invaluable insights and documents. Financial support from the Peace Studies Program and the Institute for European Studies made this field research possible. For reading various drafts or enduring conversations with me, I thank Richard Bensel, Jeffrey Checkel, Jeff Legro, Ted Hopf, Steve Watts, and Pavel Baev. Thanks also to Barak Mendelsohn, Mark Anner, Kevin Strompf, Karthika Sasikumar and Kate Gordy for helpful comments on a rough draft of chapter one. Special thanks also go to Will Lowe, Normand Péladeau, and Kimberly Neuendorf, for helpful discussions on CATA. Normand also deserves special thanks for “encouraging” Wordstat to read Cyrillic text. At SWAMOS, I thank Richard Betts, Eliot Cohen, and especially Stephen Biddle, Todd Lowery, and Major Isaiah Wilson for discussions on the nature of strategy and how to study it. Scholarship can be a solitary endeavor, but it need not be a lonely one. I thank Kevin Strompf, Israel and Ronit Waismel-Manor, Brian Bow, Dan Sherman, Syd van Morgan, Il-Hyun Cho, Seo Hyun Park, Dev Gupta, Stephanie Hoffman, Barak Mendelsohn, and Maria Zaitseva for keeping me reasonably sane. The late Bernie “60/40” Milton and Dr. Funk Dubious were godsends during my Ithaca days; the Station for Innovation, indeed. At my new home, Princeton University, I thank Gary Bass, Nancy Bermeo, Tom Christensen, Christina Davis, John Ikenberry, Andy Moravcsik, Sankur 7 Muthu, Jennifer Pitts, Grigore Pop-Eleches, Kris Ramsay, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Julie Taylor, Jessica Trounstine, Joshua Tucker, and Lynn White for such a warm welcome. My family has also been a constant source of support over the years. Though separated by long distances, my Mom Helen and brother Matt sent encouragement and care packages that helped smooth over some of the rougher spots of grad school. This dissertation is partly inspired by the memory of the very, very dark pod''ezd at Ulitsa Chaikovskovo, Dom 61, St. Petersburg – the scene of a polite robbery. I dedicate this dissertation to Grace E. Lyall. It probably isn’t enough to note that I owe her just about everything, but it’s still true. Note on transliteration: I have followed the U.S. Library of Congress system (no diacritical marks) with the exception of well-known places and individuals where such usage would cause confusion (i.e. Yeltsin, Chechnya, Soviet). 8 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Jason M.K. Lyall was born on 19 November 1975 in Vancouver, B.C., Canada. A product of Canada’s public school system, he received his Bachelor of Arts (History and Political Science) from Simon Fraser University in 1998. That same year, he enrolled in the Department of Government’s Ph.D. program at Cornell University. He received his Master of Arts in 2001 and his Ph.D. in 2005. During his sojourn through graduate school, he was a Visiting Scholar at the European University at St. Petersburg, Russia, as well as an Exchange Scholar at Harvard University (twice). In July 2004, he joined the faculty of the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Paths of Ruin: Why Revisionist States Arise and Die in World Politics Page 1 Ghost in the Machine: Patterns in the Study and Practice 1 of Revisionism 2 Paths of Ruin: Why Revisionist States Arise and Die in World Politics 54 3 Running to Stand Still: The Revisionism of France (1848-71) and 113 Pakistan (1947-71) Compared 4 July Days, July Storms: French (1816-48) and Soviet (1917-45) 192 Grand Strategies Compared 5 On the Path to Ruin? Postcommunist Russia as a Potential Revisionist 237 6 The Once and Future Great Power: Identity and Strategy in Yeltsin’s 250 Russia, 1993-1999 7 A New Potemkin Village? The Instability of Stability in Putin’s Russia, 322 2000-2004 8 Conclusion 411 Appendix I A Word About Words: How the 433 Content Analysis was Conducted Appendix II Coding Event Data 452 Bibliography 456 10 LIST OF TABLES 1.1: A Comparison of Death Rates Between Revisionist and 38 Status Quo States, 1793-2000. 1.2: Revisionist States and Their Relative
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