Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments NUCLEAR- AND MISSILE-RELATED TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, NOVEMBER 1997-FEBRUARY 1998

by Michael Barletta, Clay Bowen, Kent Jamison, and Gaurav Kampani

The material in this overview is drawn from selected abstracts that appear in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ nuclear and missile databases. Transactions of nuclear and missile technologies, parts, and materials are listed according to the recipient country. Other developments are listed according to the country where the event or development took place.

On 12/29/97, Russia signed a contract to China during a recent visit there. The Fed- build a 2,000 MW nuclear power station at eral Republic of Yugoslavia is expected to ASIA Lianyungang in China’s Jiangsu province. purchase GSS M [probably the M-9,the ex- Under the contract, Russia will supply two port version of the DF-15 (NATO designa- modified VVER-1000 reactors to China. The tion CSS-6)] ballistic missiles, which have a project is estimated to cost $3 billion, and range of over 600 km and are equipped with CHINA the two reactors are expected to come on “a highly sophisticated system of electronic line in 2004 and 2005 respectively. control.” The China North Industries Cor- Nuclear Nuclear News, 2/98, p. 59. poration (NORINCO) manufactures the mis- U.S.-based Lansing Technologies Corpora- siles. Milosovic will invest $5.8 million in the tion was fined $10,000 for exporting a com- On 9/9/97, Peter Lee, a 58-year-old Taiwan- construction of a fruit processing factory puter vector processor and a data acquisition ese resident of Manhattan Beach, Califor- outside Beijing. Profits from this investment controller system to China in 1992 without nia, pleaded guilty to passing classified U.S. are expected to pay for the cost of the mis- an export license. defense information to Chinese scientists on siles. The Export Practitioner, 11/97, p. 18. the use of lasers in simulating nuclear deto- AFP, 11/19/97; in FBIS-TAC-97-323, 11/19/97. nations. Lee also admitted that he had falsely On 11/3/97, China’s Defense Minister Chi denied giving technical lectures during his Russia has decided to sell its supersonic Haotian and Mongolian Defense Minister 1985 trip to China. Lee, a laser energy spe- Mosquito/SS-N-22 anti-ship missile to China. Dambyn Dorligjav met in China and reached cialist, was then employed by TRW Inc. and This is the first such sale of the missile, which a military cooperation agreement. Included worked as a researcher at the Los Alamos had been on Russia’s top-secret list of weap- in the agreement was China’s pledge to con- National Laboratory. ons. tinue recognizing Mongolia’s status as a Deseret News, [Online] http://www.desnews. Simon Saradzhyan, RFE/RL, 12/10/97. nuclear-weapon-free zone. com/, 2/10/98. Xinhua (Beijing), 11/3/97; in FBIS-CHI-97-307, 11/ China is reported to be continuing develop- 3/97. Missile ment of its C-101 family of anti-ship surface- According to the Yugoslav weekly Nedeljni China was formally admitted to the Zangger to-surface missiles. First unveiled in 1985, Telegraf, Yugoslav President Slobodan Committee of nuclear exporting countries on the C-101 uses ramjet propulsion. The mis- Milosovic signed an agreement to purchase 10/16/97. sile has a maximum range of 45 km, and can Jiang Wandi, Beijing Review, 12/1/97, pp. 21-23. intermediate-range ballistic missiles from achieve speeds up to Mach 2. According to

134 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments its manufacturer, the missile is 6.5 m long, Mikhail Urusov, Moskovskiye Novosti, 2/1-8/98; called for Russia to deliver the reactors on a has a launch weight of 1,850 kg, and employs in FBIS-CHI-98-051, 2/20/98. “turnkey” basis, but this arrangement fell a semi-armor-piercing warhead with delayed- through with the collapse of the Soviet action fuse. The People’s Liberation Army China has upgraded the command, control, Union. Navy hopes to deploy the C-101 on board and communications infrastructure of its Sugata Ghosh, Economic Times (Delhi), 11/21/ its Houjian and Huang fast attack craft for strategic missile force. The introduction of a 97; in FBIS-TAC-97-325, 11/21/97. purposes of coastal defense during the cur- new microwave digital communications sys- rent five-year plan. tem gives the Second Artillery forces an all- U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen re- Jane’s International Defense Review, 1/98, p. 12. weather capability. leased a report on 11/25/97 that warned of a Lu Chunming and Chen Yansheng, Beijing Keji nuclear confrontation between India and Ribao, 1/16/98; in FBIS-CHI-98-050, 2/19/98. During a meeting on 1/20/98, Chinese Presi- Pakistan. The report on proliferation said, dent Jiang Zemin promised U.S. Secretary of “Unresolved disagreements, deep animos- The China Institute of Carrier Rocket Tech- ity and distrust, and the continuing confron- Defense William Cohen that China would halt nology (CICRT) ended 1997 with a string of all new sales of anti-ship missiles and related tation between their forces in disputed six successful launches of its Long March Kashmir make the subcontinent a region with technologies to Iran. Rocket family. In 1996, China’s space pro- Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 1/21/98, p. A9. a significant risk of nuclear confrontation.” gram had suffered repeated failures. On 2/ The report also said that India’s preparations The two Sovremenny-class destroyers or- 15/96, the Long March III-B exploded within for a nuclear test in 1995 and 1996, backed dered by China from Russia may be deliv- seconds after launch. On 8/18/96, an older by Indian public support for the test, in- ered with the Oniks/Yakhont (export name) version of the Long March III family failed creased the possibility that one or both coun- anti-ship missile instead of the Moskit/SS- to park its satellite payload in a predeter- tries could take “tangible steps” to advance N-22. The Oniks/Yakhont has a maximum mined orbit. This failure was caused by a their nuclear posture. “Although both gov- range of 300 km in a hi-low mission configu- premature engine shutdown in the third ernments have denied plans to conduct ration and 120 km when following a low-low stage of the launch vehicle. CICRT scien- nuclear tests, should India test a nuclear profile. The missile’s new Plamya propulsion tists and technicians traced the cause of the device, Islamabad would be under immense system uses a solid rocket motor in the ini- explosion in the Long March III-B rocket to pressure to test as well.” tial stages of flight, after which it switches to a malfunction in a power module that resulted Shehan Sehbai, Dawn, [Online] http://dawn.com/ a ramjet sustainer. This combination allows in the improper functioning of the rocket- daily/, 11/26/97. the missile to achieve terminal flight speeds control system platform. Wei Ban, Beijing Review, 2/23-3/1/98, pp. 13- Officials at India’s Indira Gandhi Center for up to 2,800 km/h. Instead of relying solely 14. on active radar target acquisition, the Atomic Research announced the week of 11/ Yakhont uses a passive target seeker design 20/97 that the Fast Breeder Test Reactor INDIA that allows an unannounced approach to a (FBTR) at Kalpakkam would add 60 kg of target. These two features—passive target Nuclear plutonium to its core, and load a fertile blan- acquisition and very high terminal velocity— Indian officials said the United States was ket of Thorium-232, capable of producing are intended to allow the missile to overcome trying to destroy India’s nuclear program by Uranium-233, in 1998-99. This reactor has not current and planned ship defenses. The pressuring Brazil to halt nuclear commerce yet operated with a fertile blanket on its core missile’s flight-control system includes a with New Delhi. The pressure came in re- periphery. Critics in India’s parliamentary ShYu80-066B three-axis, gyro-stabilized in- sponse to U.S. contentions that Brazil’s committees say that its breeder program, and ertial platform. The Yakhont is notable for nuclear trade with India was a violation of in particular the FBTR’s lack of electricity having been purchased by an export client Brazil’s responsibilities under Nuclear Sup- generating capacity, are wasted efforts. In- before being introduced into service in Rus- pliers Group (NSG) guidelines. Brazil subse- stead, they argue that India should concen- sia. quently said that it would not transfer trate on developing pressurized water Stephen J. Zaloga, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 2/ equipment covered by NSG guidelines to reactors (PWRs) and pressurized heavy wa- 98, pp. 17-20. India. ter reactors (PHWRs), and leave India’s lim- Mark Hibbs, Nuclear Fuel, 11/3/97. ited supply of separated plutonium to meeting Russia is considering plans to participate in national defense needs. the modernization of China’s strategic de- A deal between India and Russia that calls Nucleonics Week, 11/27/97, pp. 10-11. fense systems. During a recent visit to China, for Russia to provide a nuclear reactor for Russia’s chief military inspector Andrey $3.4 billion is proceeding, according to the When Russian President Boris Yeltsin arrives Kokoshin discussed the prospects of Rus- chairman of India’s Nuclear Power Corpora- in India in 2/98, he is expected to sign a con- sian participation in completing China’s Type tion (NPC) Y.S.R. Prasad. Two 1,000 MW re- tract to build two 1,000 MW commercial 093 nuclear-powered submarine and Type actors will be built in Tamil Nadu, and the nuclear power reactors at Koodankulam in 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile subma- project is expected to take six to seven years addition to a declaration on strategic part- rine. to reach completion. The original agreement nership. It will be “the largest strategic con-

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 135 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments tract ever initialed by India, surpassing by intense international pressure to prevent In- program without further flight testing. Offi- $1.3 billion last year’s record $1.8 billion deal dia from implementing this plan, “the cials in the Defence Research and Develop- with Moscow on Sukhoi-30s.” India’s grow- hullaballoo would die down and India would ment Organisation (DRDO) said the Agni’s ing dependence on oil imports explains its be accepted as a full-fledged nuclear power, range might be extended by “boosting” the interest in nuclear power. However, reactor even by the United States.” The BJP’s argu- propellant in the missile’s second stage, us- imports such as the LWRs offered by Russia ment states that given the regional security ing a “high-energy storable liquid propel- continue to make India dependent on exter- environment, “we [India] have no option but lant.” DRDO officials also said they were nal suppliers of enriched uranium fuel. In to go nuclear.” The party is aware that India working on developing a propulsion system order to further its need for an “energy-se- could find itself “in a sticky position” if the that used solid fuel exclusively. They could curity strategy to safeguard its future deci- United States were to apply its laws against accomplish this shift by removing the sec- sion-making autonomy,” India’s planners proliferation of nuclear weapons, but “it is a ond stage, a shortened version of the liquid- designed an energy program using PHWRs. risk the party is prepared to take….” The fueled Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic The program envisions using India’s limited BJP’s policy of making India an openly de- missile. India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle natural uranium reserves as fuel while also clared nuclear weapons state is very differ- (PSLV), successfully launched in 10/97, used producing plutonium fuel for second-stage ent from the Indian government’s policy so this kind of solid propellant motor. Agni’s fast-breeder reactors, which are to be re- far. The BJP has, however, left itself “consid- engineers hope to attain a 2,000 km range placed by plants based on the thorium/Ura- erable diplomatic room for maneuver” by talk- with the missile’s first generation, to be called nium-233 cycle. ing only about “exercising the nuclear Agni-I. Subsequent development calls for Brahama Chellaney, The Pioneer (Delhi), 12/31/ option.” The BJP, as of 2/3/98, was the front- improving the missile’s range to 3,000 km. 97; in FBIS-NES-98-001, 1/1/98. runner in opinion polls regarding the party Engineers foresee further developmental test elections to be held from 2/16-3/7/98. U.S. flights for Agni in order to attain “a 95 per- Dr. Rajagopalan Chidambaram, chairman of Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia cent assurance level” and to verify the India’s Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), Rick Inderfurth expressed concern that the missile’s performance at its full 2,500 km said that India has developed a pilot plant BJP’s nuclear ambitions would be destabiliz- range. The Defense Ministry has established for “detritiation” of heavy water in the ing to the region. working groups to determine an appropriate Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC). Neena Vyas, The Hindu, [Online] http:// command and control setup for the Agni. According to BARC scientists, the new tech- www.webpage.com/hindu/, 1/14/98. Dawn, Other working group issues include the [Online] http://dawn.com/, 2/3/98. nology is used to prevent health hazards and missile’s integration and deployment, target- reduce radioactive levels by lowering the tri- Missile ing priorities, and development of opera- tium content in heavy water circulating tional doctrine. Indian defense sources said that the Trishul around the moderator circuit. Jane’s International Defense Review, 11/97, p. 5. The BARC breakthrough increases India’s surface-to-air missile was successfully test- self-sufficiency in terms of strategic materi- fired twice from Chandipur Interim Test A U.S.-Indian agreement signed on 12/16/97 als for defense purposes. Indian scientists Range on 11/25/97. This was the third time in will allow the United States and India to ex- have been reluctant to call it “production” 11/97 that the Trishul was launched. The plore joint research in several Earth and at- of tritium, but instead talk of “detritiation.” Trishul is a low-level quick-reaction (LLQR) mospheric science-related areas. Joint The method selected at the pilot plant uses missile that is propelled by a maraging steel missions involving hardware exchange may chemical exchange followed by cryogenic solid fuel motor. The Trishul’s range is 50 still not be possible, however, because India distillation. The process used at the BARC km, and it can be used by the army, air force, has not joined the MTCR. Indian officials pilot plant can be implemented at all eight and navy. deny a connection between their space re- operating PHWRs at Kalpakkam, It is one of five weapons at various stages search program and arms control. Rawathatta, Narora, and Kakrapar. Scientists of development under India’s Integrated Warren Ferster, Space News, 1/5-11/98. refuse to discuss what is being done with the Guided Missile Development Program highly radioactive tritium, even under con- (IGMDP). The Trishul is powered by a two- The Times of India reported that India’s In- ditions of anonymity. stage solid and liquid propellant system and stitute of Armament Technology has devel- Jane’s Intelligence Review, 1/1/98. has high maneuverability. Pakistan expressed oped an anti-ship missile defense system. serious concern in response to India’s suc- The new system is quicker and more precise Brijesh Mishra, an official in the Bharatiya cessful Trishul launch. than the current defense system. Unlike the Janata Party’s (BJP) foreign policy division, The Hindu, [Online] http://www.webpage.com/ old system, the infrared sensor of the new has stated that the cornerstone of his party’s hindu/, 11/26/97. Pakistan Link Headlines, [Online] http://www.pakistanlink.co/, 11/23/97. system is able to detect incoming missiles defense and foreign policy strategy would despite potential interference from radiation be “to exercise India’s nuclear option.” The Indian Defense Minister Mulayam Singh from the sun and other natural objects. Also, BJP has calculated that although initially Yadav said that his country would continue seawater and mist, which affect the propa- there could be serious consequences and the Agni surface-to-surface ballistic missile gation of electromagnectic waves, do not

136 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments affect the new system. reprocessed. on BMD remains classified, it is estimated to Dawn (Karachi), [Online] http://dawn.com/ Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozrehiye (Moscow), be about $1.3 billion. Officials at Japan’s daily/, 1/20/98. 11/14-20/97, pp. 42, 69. Ministry of Foreign Affairs believe that the country faces a ballistic missile threat from First criticality of Japan’s High Temperature INDONESIA North Korea. They are also convinced that Test Reactor, which was originally scheduled Nuclear Japan can offer useful technologies to the for 12/97, has been postponed to 6/98. The United States. Japanese press reports sug- Russia has agreed to sell 1 kg of highly en- Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute will gest that public support is slowly growing riched uranium to Indonesia. The uranium conduct additional inspections and make for a BMD system. will be used in the production of radioactive further improvements in “some systems” Jane’s Defence Weekly, 2/25/98, p. 3. isotopes for medical purposes. before the reactor goes critical. Interfax, 11/12/97; in FBIS-SOV-97-316, 11/12/ Nuclear Engineering International, 2/98, p. 4. 97. KAZAKSTAN According to Japan’s Science & Technol- Nuclear JAPAN ogy Agency, as of 12/31/97, the country’s Kazakstan is unable to send back to Russia Nuclear inventory of unirradiated plutonium and 3.5 tons of spent fuel, including a significant In 7/97, Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro spent nuclear fuel totaled 5,000 kg and 49,500 proportion of potential weapons-grade plu- Hashimoto’s issued an announcement that kg respectively. Of the 49,500 kg of irradi- tonium. This is due to increased reprocess- included three new principles of diplomacy ated plutonium, 48,000 kg are estimated to ing and transport fees at the Mayak between Russia and Japan. In response to be inside reactors, 1,000 kg at the reprocess- Production Association in Russia. Further- that declaration, in 12/97 the Japan Atomic ing plant, and 500 kg in nuclear research fa- more, there are no Kazak facilities licensed Industrial Forum (JAIF) exchanged a proto- cilities. In addition, 15,100 kg of unirradiated to receive the high-level waste that Russia col with the Russian Ministry of Atomic En- plutonium is being stored outside Japan. would return after reprocessing. Kazakstan ergy (Minatom) to promote mutual Naoaki Usui, Nucleonics Week, 2/8/98, p. 13. will store the untreated spent fuel indefinitely cooperation in the field of nuclear power de- either at its BN-350 breeder reactor facility at On 2/10/98, the Japanese cabinet approved velopment. Russian Minister of Atomic En- Aktau, where it is currently being kept, or at two bills to replace the government-run ergy Viktor Mikhailov and Kohei Abe, the Semipalatinsk testing site. The United Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Develop- Japanese vice-chairman of JAIF and chair- States considers the BN-350 reactor a prolif- ment Corporation, or Donen, with a new man of Chubu Electric Co., signed the proto- eration risk, as it is situated approximately agency. A series of nuclear accidents and col. According to the protocol, bilateral 200 miles from Kazakstan’s border with Iran. subsequent falsified reports highlighted the cooperation will focus on the nuclear fuel PPNN Newsbrief, Fourth Quarter 1997, p. 5. necessity for institutionalizing transparency. NuclearFuel, 10/20/97. Reuters, 11/18/97. cycle, namely: spent fuel reprocessing, ra- The proposed new agency will achieve this SpentFuel, 11/24/97. dioactive waste management, and the devel- transparency through “stepped-up disclo- opment and operation of both fast breeder sure” norms and procedures. The new On 11/18/97, U.S. Secretary of Energy and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. agency will also oversee research and de- Federico Pena and Kazakstani First Deputy Since 1977, Japan and Russia/USSR have velopment on the fast breeder reactors (FBR) Prime Minister Akhmetzhan Yesimov signed cooperated on atomic energy. Minatom and and FBR fuel, spent-fuel reprocessing, and an agreement to shut down Kazakstan’s BN- JIAF signed the protocol in recognition of high-level waste disposal. Under the legisla- 350 fast-breeder reactor in Aktau by 2003 and both sides’ desire to enhance future eco- tion, Donen will also withdraw from research to “secure, stabilize, and store plutonium- nomic cooperation. on the Advanced Thermal Reactor, enrich- bearing spent nuclear fuel” in the reactor’s Atoms in Japan, 12/97, p. 12. ment, and foreign uranium exploration within core and the “spent fuel pool” at the site. five years. The new agency is expected to According to Rose Gottemoeller, director of Liquid radioactive waste reprocessing equip- nonproliferation at the U.S. Department of ment, capable of reprocessing 7,000 cubic start operating on 10/1/98. Kyodo (Tokyo), 2/9/98; in FBIS-EAS-98-040, 2/ Energy, the nuclear fuel at Aktau has been a meters of waste from nuclear submarine re- 10/98. concern to the United States because of the actors, was brought to the Zvezda Far East- plant’s close proximity (300 km) to Iran. The ern Shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen. The event Missile spent fuel will be stored on-site under IAEA represents the first step in the implementa- Japan is exploring the possibility of building safeguards. The joint program will last “sev- tion of the joint Russian-Japanese liquid ra- a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system and eral years.” The agreement was precipitated dioactive waste program. The waste is being will release a feasibility study in April 1999. by the inability of Kazakstan and Russia to held on several tankers, each containing sev- Under the FY98 defense budget, the Japan work out a suitable arrangement to repro- eral thousand tons of waste. There are 40 Defense Agency is authorized to spend cess the spent fuel at the Mayak Production decommissioned nuclear submarines with 40 $670,000 “to explore joint technical research Association (formerly Chelyabinsk-65) in to 70 nuclear reactors to be dismantled and with the U.S.A.” Although total spending Ozersk, Russia. Under current Russian leg-

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 137 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments islation and Kazak-Russian agreements, plu- 350 reactor by 2004. An arrangement is un- manufactured in Shanghai, China. The tonium from the reprocessed Aktau fuel is to der way calling for a technology transfer from CHASNUPP is the first “South-South coop- remain in Russia and the “newly generated the EBR-2 reactor at the Argonne West Labo- eration” in the area of nuclear power. high-level reprocessing waste” is to be re- ratory in the United States to Kazakstan to CHASNUPP is designed to be an improved turned to Kazakstan. aid the decommissioning. version of the Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant Russia Today, [Online] http:// Mark Hibbs, NuclearFuel, 2/9/98, pp. 4-5. near Shanghai, which has been operating www.russiatoday.com, 11/19/97. Mark Hibbs, since 1991. The plant is expected to be con- NuclearFuel, 10/20/97, pp. 5-6. Missile nected to the national electricity grid in 1999. In Kazakstan, the formerly closed city of Pakistan Link Headlines, [Online] http:// Due to the poor security situation at the Priozersk is home to a Soviet-era missile test www.pakistanlink.com/headlines/, 11/19/97. Aktau BN-350 nuclear power plant in Kazak- site, known as “test site A” or Saryshagan. stan, the U.S. government has sagreed to The troop detachment responsible for guard- Pakistan, India, and Israel opposed a 11/19/ finance the temporary secure storage of ing the site has been cut back so much that it 97 U.N. resolution sponsored by Japan con- spent breeder blanket fuel from the reactor. is now extremely difficult to protect it ad- cerning nuclear disarmament. The resolution The waste contains approximately 3 tons of equately. In recent years, the test site has called for states that are not parties to the weapons-grade plutonium. The U.S. Depart- been ransacked repeatedly and, as a result, a Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear ment of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Arms Con- large volume of specialized electronic equip- Weapons (NPT) to “accede to it at the earli- trol and Nonproliferation requested $10 ment has been stolen. Among the stolen est possible date, recognizing the importance million for FY 1998 and $15 million for FY equipment were several components of the of universal adherence to the treaty.” The 1999 for the project. The U.S. State secret 5Zh60P and A-135 air-defense sys- Japanese resolution was adopted by a vote Department’s Nonproliferation and Disarma- tems. Russia deployed the latter in 1995. The of 143-3, with Cuba abstaining. ment Fund has also allocated $2 million. The 5Zh60P is an experimental weapon. Although Masoon Haider, Dawn, [Online] http://dawn.com/ German firm Gesellschaft fuer Nukear- daily/, 11/25/97. Russian weapons specialists believe the Behaelter (GNB), a joint venture of equipment was stolen to be sold as scrap Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear Service (GNS) and The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission nonferrous metal, some of the equipment was Nukem, may provide casks for permanent (PAEC) said on 12/10/97 that press reports stolen from areas where the S-300PMU2 waste storage at BN-350 once the German of cracks developing in the foundations of “Favorit” [NATO designation SA-10B government agrees to provide financing. the nuclear power plant under construction Grumble] SAM system was developed and Until then, the United States will assist Ka- at Chashma are “not only false and mislead- tested. There has been discussion about zakstan in providing temporary storage for ing, but totally fabricated.” The 300 MW shutting down the test site permanently, the material under a blanket fuel management Chashma nuclear power plant, 165 km south- however, Russia needs the site to safely test program that is subject to the U.S.-Kazak- west of Islamabad, is being built with assis- and demonstrate missiles with ranges of 200 stan Joint Commission, a bilateral organiza- tance from China. km or more. AFP, 12/10/97. tion established by U.S. Vice President Al Sergey Goryainov, Nedelya, No. 34, 1997, p. 5. Gore and Kazak President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The program aims to export the A statement issued by the Foreign Office in PAKISTAN waste from Kazakstan to dry storage at the Islamabad said that India and Pakistan would Semipalatinsk complex in Russia, where Nuclear exchange lists of nuclear installations and IAEA safeguards are in force. At first, some Pakistan’s All Parties Conference (APC) met facilities on 1/1/98. “Both the countries are U.S. officials expressed doubt about storing in Islamabad on 11/16/97 and declared that it required to exchange on the first working day the materials at Semipalatinsk, in contrast to will not permit the government to accept any of each year lists of nuclear installations and the Mayak complex in Russia, which already limitations on the country’s nuclear deter- facilities as required under the Article II of holds large amounts of weapons-grade fis- rent, nor would it allow Pakistan to sign the the Pakistan and India agreement of 1988 on sile material. The Kazaks disagreed, consid- Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. prohibition of attacks against each other’s ering that the Mayak facility would have to Pakistan Link Headlines, [Online] http:// nuclear installations and facilities,” accord- reprocess the material at the RT-1 plant. As www.pakistanlink.com/headlines/, 11/17/97. ing to the statement. Pakistan Link Headlines, [Online] http:// of 2/98, Russian-Kazak nuclear arrangements The Pakistani NNI news agency reported on pakistanlink.com/headlines/, 1/1/98. stipulated that any fuel from BN-350 must be 11/19/97 that the Chashma Nuclear Power imported back to Kazakstan, which does not Plant (CHASNUPP) would complete instal- On 2/4/98, Pakistani President Mohammad currently possess a proper storage facility lation of two steam generators on 11/21/97. Rafiq Tarar refuted allegations that the coun- for reprocessed fuel. Another agreement re- A senior advisor with the China National try was downsizing its army and nuclear pro- quires the U.S. DOE and the Kazak govern- Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) was scheduled gram. But he said there would be “no ment to cooperate on safe storage of the as the chief guest for the event. The installa- reduction of any kind in the country’s de- reactor fuel and to decommission the BN- tion involves two 250-ton steam generators fense capability” and that “the nuclear pro-

138 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments gram will continue in accordance with the yond the current Wolsung-4. The Wolsung- South Korean officials, speaking on condi- country’s specific requirements.” 4 is expected to come on line in 1998. Senior tion of anonymity, have proposed alterna- Jasarat (Karachi), 2/5/98; in FBIS-TAC-98-036, AECL officials claim, however, that they have tive methods for financing the project. One 2/5/98. not been informed of any such decision. alternative would be for Japan and the United South Korea’s current economic crisis has States to provide more money in the early Missile also led to a postponement in some nuclear stages of the project with “South Korea pay- Gordon Oehler, former director of the U.S. sector investments. The Korea Electric ing later when its foreign-currency situation CIA’s Nonproliferation Center said that Pa- Power Corp. (KEPCO) has delayed construc- improves.” The United States has made it kistan “had developed a 1,500 km missile tion work on the Ulchin-5 and -6 PWRs. clear that it does not expect Congress to fund which they call the Ghauri.” The Ghauri could These reactors were originally scheduled to the light water reactors directly. It has also be similar to the North Korean Nodong-2, begin operation in 2003 and 2004 respec- expressed concern that any weakening of since the two surface-to-surface ballistic mis- tively. However, no delays have been experi- South Korea’s commitment to finance the siles have similar ranges. Earlier this year, enced on the Yonggwang-5 and -6, which project could embolden North Korea to break the Pakistani press referred to the missile as are scheduled for completion in 2001 and the 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework, un- the MK-3. U.S. analysts believe that Paki- 2002 respectively. der which the latter agreed to freeze its sus- stan received technical advice from China, Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, 1/29/98, p. 11. pected nuclear weapons program in return but Pakistan said the missile was developed for two light water reactors. indigenously. Missile Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, 1/8/98, p. 7; AFP, Barbara Starr, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 12/4/97, p. South Korea plans to purchase 100 Popeye 2/2/98, [Online] http://dialog.carl.org/. David E. 15. long-range missiles, which are produced Sanger, New York Times, 2/5/98, p. 1. jointly by the U.S. firm Lockheed and Israel’s Pakistan reported that it has developed a new In a significant change of position, the Raphael. The Popeye has a range of 111 km, ballistic missile that has a range of 1,500 to United States has indicated its willingness which would allow South Korea to strike 2,000 km. The “Ghauri would fulfill a long- to shoulder a part of the construction cost North Korean military facilities near Pyongy- held Pakistani ambition to counter India’s of the light water reactors in North Korea. “strategic depth.” Pakistan said that the ang in the event of war. Chungang Ilbo, 11/1/97, p. 2; in FBIS-EAS-97- On 2/13/98, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Ghauri is designed to counter India’s Prithvi 306, 11/1/97. for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Stanley missile. Roth told a press conference in Japan that All India Radio Network (Delhi), 1/5/98; in FBIS- KOREAN PENINSULA ENERGY “if the U.S. Congress receives a request from TAC-98-008, 1/8/98. the administration to approve the cost of the DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION light water reactors, Congress will positively In an interview with “Voice of America,” Pa- (KEDO) review it.” But the United States has de- kistani Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan manded South Korea’s participation in the said that Pakistan is indigenously manufac- The U.S. Department of Energy has com- supply of heavy oil to North Korea in ex- turing missiles. He denied reports that Paki- pleted “canning” more than 95 percent of change. South Korea estimates the future stan was receiving missiles from China. North Korea’s spent nuclear fuel. Despite a cost of supplying oil to North Korea to be “Pakistani engineers have themselves ac- two-month delay, KEDO was able to meet its between $300-$400 million. On the other quired this technology and they are manu- commitment to supply North Korea with hand, the costs that the United States would facturing [missiles] indigenously.” 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil. The delay was Pakistan Link, [Online] http:// caused both by KEDO’s financial difficul- incur for the reactor project would largely be www.pakistanlink.com/, 2/21/98. ties and North Korea’s poor infrastructure symbolic (from a minimum of tens of millions for offloading and storing the oil. Meanwhile, of dollars to a maximum of $100-$200 million). SOUTH KOREA U.S. President Bill Clinton has reassured For that reason, according to a South Ko- rean official requesting anonymity, South Nuclear Congress that all of North Korea’s weapons- grade spent nuclear fuel would be canned Korea has rejected the U.S. proposal. Ac- Officials from Korea Power Engineering Co. for safe storage by 4/1/98. cording to figures released by South Korea’s Inc. (KOPEC) have informed foreign nuclear Howard Diamond, Arms Control Association, 11- national unification and foreign ministries, vendors that a “business decision has been 12/97, [Online] http://www.armscontrol.org. South Korea and Japan will spend $3.5 bil- made in principle” to standardize future re- lion and $1 billion respectively on the nuclear actor designs on the pressurized water reac- Financially strapped South Korea has in- power project. The United States is expected tor (PWR) as against the pressurized heavy formed Japan and the United States that it to share some of the remaining $670 million water reactor (PHWR). This means that will be unable to pay the “lion’s share” (70 cost. Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.(AECL), which percent) of the $5.2 billion needed to build Choson Ilbo (Seoul), 2/16/98, p.1; in FBIS-EAS- was in direct competition with Asea Brown two light water nuclear power reactors in 98-047, 2/16/98. Boveri-Combustion Engineering, will not North Korea. As a result, the project being build any more reactors in South Korea be- headed by KEDO is expected to be delayed.

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 139 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

South Korea has urged the United States to pation would enhance Taiwan’s security. has been located and placed under interna- circumvent its export control laws in order to Jane’s Defence Pointer, 1/98, p. 9. tional safeguard. The plutonium was left be- export nuclear reactors and related equip- hind at the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. ment to North Korea. The pressure comes in Taiwan’s Chungshan Institute of Technol- The missing plutonium came to light in Janu- the wake of mounting uncertainty as to ogy and Science(CITS) has modified the ary 1997, when the Department of Energy whether the export of nuclear reactors to Tien-kung surface-to-surface missile and will declassified documents that detailed failed North Korea, as stipulated in the 1994 Agreed test it in an anti-ballistic missile mode in 5/ recovery efforts at a U.S.-built nuclear reac- Framework, can be undertaken in the absence 98. In 1/98, preparations were completed for tor in the Vietnamese hill resort of Dalat. Pre- of a nuclear cooperation agreement between the target missile to be used in the test. CITS viously, Vietnam had disclosed the the two countries. According to Clinton ad- has also achieved a breakthrough in the de- possession of a “small radiation source of ministration officials, however, there is no velopment of supersonic cruise missiles. It unknown origin,” after concluding a safe- move in the executive branch to alter U.S. has succeeded in using the Hsiung-feng guards agreement with the IAEA on 2/23/90. policy or seek alternate means to push the anti-ship missile as a test-bed to integrate a Jim Wolf, Reuters, 2/10/98. policy forward. In January 1998, U.S. nuclear ramjet engine with the rocket section of the vendor ABB-CE withdrew its December 1997 missile. The development plan has been export license request to supply nuclear dubbed the “Chien-Tien Plan,” and the new equipment to North Korea. The request was missile is called Hsiung-feng 3. The missile, EUROPE withdrawn on advice from the U.S. executive however, is too long to be deployed on branch that it could not be granted in the fighter aircraft and warships. Taipei Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao, 2/25/98, p. 1. absence of a U.S.-North Korean nuclear co- operation agreement. One proposal is to dub AZERBAIJAN THAILAND ABB-CE technology as “South Korean” tech- Missile nology. North Korea, however, has refused Nuclear According to a U.S. Central Intelligence to accept a “South Korean” reactor. It is also Thailand’s Office of Atomic Energy (OAEP) Agency (CIA) annual report, in 1997 doubtful whether ABB-CE would be willing has sought permission to start construction Azerbaijan, with the mediation of the Swiss to give up its U.S. label. U.S. officials have of a 10 MW research reactor in 11/98. In 6/ firm Intora, sold Peru a shipment of air-to-air also expressed concern that because of a two- 97, the OAEP contracted America’s General missiles for $8 million. The Azerbaijani De- year delay in taking samples from the Yong- Atomics to build a research reactor, an iso- fense Ministry denied the report. byon nuclear complex, the IAEA will be tope production system, and radioactive Turan (Baku), 1/14/98; in FBIS-TAC-98-014, 1/ unable to account for North Korea’s nuclear waste plants in the country’s Ongkharak dis- 14/98. inventory. Any certification, therefore, would trict. Thailand’s Nuclear Facility Safety Sub- have to be a “political judgement call.” U.S. committee has stipulated, however, that the BULGARIA State Department officials have denied that OAEP pass a safety analysis review con- Nuclear there has been a formal shift in position in ducted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Com- On 11/28/97, Moldovan Ambassador to Bul- favor of increased funding for the light wa- mission. If approved, construction of the garia Mihai Koshkodan, Chairman of the ter reactor project. But another source close reactor will be completed by the year 2000. Bulgarian Energy Committee Ivan to the project has said that there is now a Bangkok Post, 2/7/98, p. 3. Shilyashki, and Oleksandr Smeshlyov of the “raging debate” within the Clinton adminis- Ukrainian government signed an agreement tration on the future course of U.S. policy on Missile regulating the transport of fresh nuclear fuel the project. Less that one year after its inception, from Russia to Bulgaria (and spent fuel from Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, 2/26/98, p. 3. Thailand’s space-launch program has been Bulgaria to Russia) through the territories of cut due to the recent collapse of Thailand’s Ukraine and Moldova. Russia is expected to AIWAN currency, the baht. Thai Ministry of Com- T sign the agreement in 12/97. The duration of munication sources say that cooperation with Missile the agreement will be 10 years and it will be Israel, the United States, and a few European Taiwan has welcomed the 9/30/97 U.S. House renewed automatically if no objections are governments concerning satellite telecom- of Representatives committee proposal in- raised. Bulgaria signed a separate agreement munications technology will continue. viting it to participate in the theater missile Barbara Opall, Space News, 11/2/97, p. 3. with Romania. The agreements apply spe- defense (TMD) program. Taiwan’s legisla- cifically to the transport of nuclear fuel to tors, however, are divided on the issue. One and from the Kozloduy reactors in Bulgaria. VIETNAM group believes that Taiwan’s participation BTA (Sofia), 11/28/97; in FBIS-EEU-97-334, 11/ in the TMD program could prove to be very Nuclear 30/97. RFE/RL Newsline, [Online] http:// www.rferl.org/newsline, 11/18/97. expensive and trigger an arms race with A “chunk” (80 g) of plutonium, left behind in China. A second group believes that partici- Vietnam after a failed wartime retrieval effort,

140 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

CYPRUS vice, denied the confiscated radioactive ma- of fuel used in nuclear reactors.” There have terial was of Russian origin. Kovalev reiter- been two other incidents involving the dis- Missile ated this position in an interview on Russian covery of radioactive material in Lithuania in Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman television, saying that “the plutonium which the past five years. One, in 2/96, included Gennadiy Tarasov strongly denied on 12/19/ was confiscated was not of Russian origin, approximately 100 kg of highly radioactive 97 that Russia might halt the sale of S-300 and there are expert findings to this effect.” material in Visiginas, near the Chernobyl- missiles to Cyprus in return for financial com- Reuters, 11/13/97. Karl-Ludwig Guensche, Die style nuclear power plant called Ignalina. The pensation. The S-300 missiles for Cyprus are Welt (Internet version), 12/13/97; in FBIS-WEU- other was in 5/93, when 4 tons of radioactive 97-347, 12/13/97. Vladimir Smelov, ITAR-TASS, being assembled in Russia at the Avangard beryllium, which is used to make nuclear plant and tested at the Fakel design bureau. 10/26/97; in FBIS-TAC-97-299, 10/26/97. Dmitriy Pogorzhelskiy, Moscow NTV, 10/26/97; warheads, were found in Vilnius. The Avangard factory once mass-produced in FBIS-TAC-97-299, 10/26/97. Reuters, “Lithuanian Police Seize Radioactive missiles for Soviet air defense, but is now Material,” 1/13/98. dependent on exports for its survival. Western criminal justice agencies reported Reuters, 12/19/97. Lionel Barber, John Barham, that in 1997 there were no new diversions of POLAND and Bruce Clark, Financial Times (London), 12/ 19/97. Aleksandr Sychev and Gennadiy plutonium or weapons-grade highly enriched Missile uranium (HEU) from former Soviet Union in- Charodeyev, Izvestiya, 11/12/97, p. 3; in FBIS- The Polish government is considering sev- TAC-97-317, 11/13/97. ventories. The main reason for this was that eral options for radar and missile systems potential smugglers are becoming aware that for its Loara anti-aircraft missile vehicle. Po- there is no practical buyer’s market. Germany GEORGIA land is particularly interested in an offer from has seen a continual drop in incidents of Missile Israel’s Rafael, which has proposed design- nuclear material smuggling for the past three The Georgian government, in a parliamen- ing a turret equipped with its Barak missiles years: from 267 cases in 1994 to 77 cases in tary session in late 1/98, said that it had vio- and with radar from Sweden’s Ericsson. Po- 1996. The decline continued for the first half lated an embargo by exporting “precision land considers this option attractive because of 1997. However, Germany reported in the devices” to Iran. Two unique lathes weigh- Warsaw’s Radwar plant would be involved second half of 1997 an upturn in incidents ing a total of 200 tons had been dismantled in the design and production of the turret, involving natural uranium sources such as and exported to Iran. The lathes belonged to which is considered to have export poten- Cesium-137, but no HEU or plutonium. the Akhalkalki factory producing cable tial. Several NATO and Latin American coun- Mark Hibbs, Nucleonics Week, 1/8/98, pp. 11-13. equipment and were shipped to Iran in nine tries have already expressed interest in trailers. acquiring mobile anti-aircraft missile systems UNGARY Georgian Times, 2/20/98, No. 223, p. 2. H like the Loara. Nuclear Wojciech Luczak, Prawo i Gospodarka (War- GERMANY Hungarian police arrested four men, includ- saw), 1/24/98; in FBIS-EEU-98-027, 1/27/98. Nuclear ing two Slovaks, for allegedly trying to sell a radioactive isotope of strontium in Debrecen, On 1/30/98, Defense Ministers Janusz On 11/13/97, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl eastern Hungary. Dezso Csonka, a local po- Onyszkiewicz of Poland, Gyorgy Keleti of told a parliamentary committee that he knew lice investigator, said that the men were car- Hungary, and Michal Lobkowicz of the nothing about a 1994 plutonium sting opera- rying a black plastic box of radioactive Czech Republic announced plans to cooper- tion, which allowed smugglers to transport material wrapped in a transparent plastic ate in the procurement of weapons and mili- 362.9 g of plutonium on board a passenger cover. The material’s radiation level was tary equipment, in preparation for joining aircraft from Moscow to Munich. The com- above the limit prescribed by the Nuclear NATO in 1999. Specifically, Hungarian De- mittee questioned Kohl as to whether he Research Institute of the Hungarian Acad- fense Minister Gyorgy Keleti stated that in knowingly jeopardized the safety of passen- emy of Science. However, there was no leak- the near term the three countries would be gers by allowing the shipment of nuclear age because “the material was wrapped up “seeking tenders for an air-defense rocket.” material into Germany, rather than arresting AFP, 1/30/98. in an expert way so it could not affect the the smugglers before the flight departed. On environment,” Csonka said. 12/13/97, a hand-written note from then-As- AFP, 02/07/98; in Dialog@Carl, [Online] http:// RUSSIA sistant Head of the Bavarian Ministry of Jus- dialog.carl.org, 02/09/98. Nuclear tice Karl Huber alleged that he had been Russia is helping China develop its new gen- informed of the sting operation prior to the LITHUANIA eration of Type 093 nuclear-attack subma- event. According to a German spokesman, rine and Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic the Russian government acknowledged that Nuclear missile submarine. China sought Russian the material originated from a research reac- Two men were arrested in Lithuania after try- assistance in the area of nuclear propulsion tor in Obninsk. However, Nikolai Kovalev, ing to sell 10 kg of illegal radioactive material in 1996. Russia is also aiding China in de- head of the Russian Federal Security Ser- “believed to be uranium or some other kind

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 141 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments signing quieter hulls that are covered with a Second, the president must confirm that af- at Russian nuclear facilities were not layer of anechoic tiles to reduce noise dur- ter their destruction the devices never be equipped with apparatus capable of regis- ing operation. Foreign observers believe that manufactured again. Third, there must be tering ionizing radiation.” The materials sto- it will take another decade before the Type added to the criminal code a statute stipulat- len cannot be used to create nuclear 093 and Type 094 become operational. ing personal responsibility for the design and weapons, said officials. Beijing Jianchuan Zhishi, 10/97, p.10; in FBIS- production of compact nuclear weapons. A NTV (Moscow), 1/14/98; in FBIS-SOV-98-020, CHI-98-065, 3/6/98. similar statute exists with reference to bio- 1/20/98. logical weapons. Another source reported Russia’s Minister of Atomic Energy Viktor Yablokov as saying that besides “nuclear The United States and Russia are consider- Mikhailov read an announcement by Presi- briefcases,” “nuclear kegs” also exists. ing a joint project to design, develop, and dent Boris Yeltsin at the IAEA General Con- “Nuclear kegs” differ from “nuclear brief- construct nuclear fuel casks which will allow ference in Vienna, Austria stating that Russia cases” in weight, power, and shape, he said. safe handling and interim storage of spent will withdraw up to 50 tons of plutonium and “As far as I know, a ‘keg’ is much more pow- and damaged fuel assemblies in the 500 tons of HEU from nuclear warheads. The erful than a ‘briefcase,’” said Yablokov. He Murmansk region of Northwest Russia. fissile materials will be for use in U.S. civilian also mentioned that he did not know whether Many fuel assemblies originated from civil- nuclear reactors. Russia intends to redistrib- Russia had more “kegs” or “briefcases.” On ian nuclear-powered icebreakers and decom- ute 120 tons of the HEU by 2000. By 10/13/ 11/11/97, Georgiy Kaurov, spokesman for the missioned naval submarines. The United 97, Russia had already withdrawn 36 tons of Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy States will commit $500,000 to the $1.5 mil- HEU from military use. (Minatom), told Interfax that Minatom, “has lion project. The casks will be placed on con- SpentFuel, 10/13/97, p. 4. Uranium Institute News crete pads for up to 25 years. The casks will Briefing, 10/8/97-10/14/97. designed nuclear charges for all kinds and groups of soldiers with different strengths, relieve the burden of fuel stored on the ships different compositions, and different pur- Lotta and Lepse anchored in Murmansk har- Russian scientist Aleksey Yablokov, said that bor. The project will also allow other fuel from Russia has 700 atomic demolition munitions poses. We are producing nuclear charges that can be made into different forms: a tor- decommissioned submarines to be removed (ADMs), and that the United States had 608 from unsafe conditions. The project will use but has since destroyed them. Yablokov said pedo, a mine, a warhead or something else. We have produced no nuclear mines, but we Russian expertise and technology. Russia’s that the mines were made to be detonated on goal is to have cask production at one or enemy territory by a “saboteur.” In addition, have produced charges.” Kaurov also said that the term “keg” was “professional jar- more former weapons production facilities. he said that the United States intended to U.S. Department of State Press Release, 1/22/98. use its mines during the Vietnam War. gon” for “an automatic block of nuclear weap- Yablokov said he believed that all nuclear ons.” Minatom is unaware of the existence Agents from the Novosibirsk office of weapons located at Russian army depots are of any “nuclear briefcases,” Kaurov said. Russia’s Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) under strict control, but he wanted to verify Vladlen Maksimov, Novaya gazeta, 11/10/97-11/ 16/97, pp. 1, 2. Jamestown Monitor, 11/4/97. Office have arrested five suspects in con- if any were missing. He noted that the Pales- Interfax (Moscow), 11/10/97; in FBIS-TAC-97- nection with an attempted illegal sale of Ura- tine Liberation Organization had twice re- 314, 11/10/97. Interfax (Moscow), 11/11/97; in nium-235, which is believed stolen from ported it had nuclear mines, and that it had FBIS-UMA-97-315, 11/11/97. Ust-Kamenogorsk in Kazakstan. According illegally purchased them from Russia. In ad- to the criminal investigation report, the dition, he said there were two reports of such According to and Interfax report, Russian group, formed in 1995, dealt mainly in non- weapons in Chechnya. He said that the prob- Minister of Atomic Energy Viktor Mikhailov ferrous metals but later tried to sell several ability of any missing ADMs was not great, said that Russia will cooperate in the peace- ceramic capsules containing the Uranium- but that he wanted to reduce the probability ful use of nuclear energy with any country 235, which they obtained from an intermedi- to zero. After writing an article for Novaya that agrees to adhere to international accords. ary. The suspects, Sergey Gorin, Aleksandr gazeta about ADMs in mid-October 1997, Mikhailov said this condition “fully applies Marinov, Viktor Fominin, Aleksey Aristov, Yablokov wrote to President Boris Yeltsin on to Iran” and any other country that has and Oleg Pchelintsev, were unsuccessful in 10/27/97 warning that if Yeltsin did not reply placed its nuclear program under IAEA con- selling the uranium. After the group failed to he would publicize the technical characteris- trol. sell the radioactive material, the local MVD AFP, 11/24/97. tics of the weapons mentioned in the letter. organized crime unit learned of the attempted In early November 1997, the Russian Defense Stolen radioactive material, from what may sales. An undercover unit was assigned to Council suggested that Yablokov take part the case and two officers posing as busi- in drafting a new presidential decree resolv- have been the largest such theft ever, appar- ently from Russia, was found in Lithuania. nessmen from Novosibirsk contacted the ing “the main problems of controlling com- group. The pair were successful in obtain- pact nuclear mines.” Yablokov said he wanted “The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is investigating 30 criminal cases of ing two of the capsules for testing, telling the decree to reflect three main parts. First, the suspects that if the quality of the samples nuclear mines must be completely destroyed. misappropriation of nuclear materials.” MVD officials say that “80 percent of checkpoints was acceptable they would purchase the

142 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments whole shipment. On 3/20/97, the undercover they assist Iran’s missile program. U.S. UKRAINE agents contacted Fominin in Rubtsovsk. All sources say Russia is helping Iran “develop Nuclear five have been charged in connection with two new ballistic missiles, providing guid- 22 separate incidents involving the illegal ance systems, laser equipment, tungsten- On 11/4/97, the Ukrainian State Property sale and storage of radioactive materials. All coated graphite, and conducting wind tunnel Fund (FSPU) endorsed the statutory docu- face a maximum prison sentence of eight tests.” U.S. Ambassador Stephan ments for the Ukrainian-Russian joint nuclear years. Moreover, all have suffered serious Sestanovich identified Iran and Iraq as the fuel venture, TVEL-Energy, and agreed to health problems after being exposed to the “biggest and most difficult challenges in U.S. represent the national nuclear utility radioactive materials. ties with Russia.” He said that Iran is “taking Energoatom in the resulting joint stock com- Konstantin Voronov, Kommersant-Daily, [Online] advantage of Russia’s economic woes and pany. The endorsement marked the last step http://win.www.online.ru, 2/7/98. large reservoir of advanced technology and in creating TVEL-Energy, which officials cre- scientific talent to accelerate development ated to arrange payment for Russian nuclear Russian Minister of Atomic Energy Viktor of an indigenous ballistic missile capability.” fuel sent to Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Mikhailov said in a news conference on 2/ Russia Today, 1/16/98, [Online] http:// The initial agreement to create the new com- 18/98 that “Russia does not cooperate with www.russiatoday.com. pany was signed on 10/6/97. In 1997, Ukraine Iraq in nuclear energy.” He went on to say owed Russia $19.6 million for supplies and that the research reactors in Iraq had been The head of the Russian Space Agency, Yuri $3.5 million for nuclear fuel due to not being shut down and the fuel supplied for them Koptev, said on 1/30/98 that Russia has paid by its own customers. Ukrainian cus- had already been taken back to Russia and halted technical assistance to Iran’s missile tomers usually pay for approximately six per- reprocessed. program. Western sources say Iran is trying cent of consumed electricity. Thus, Ukraine’s Oleg Lebedev, RIA-Novosti, 2/18/98. to produce a missile that could hit both Is- biggest advantage in the deal will be a 150- rael and U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia. Russia day “credit on Russian reactor fuel.” Another Missile will, however, continue maintaining its rela- source said that the establishment of TVEL- Senior U.S. officials said that the Russian tions with Iran as it has some influence over Energy will permit Ukrainian power stations government has promised to stop Russian other countries in the region, including Af- a six-month grace period to pay for the fuel. companies and scientists from assisting ghanistan. Payments will be in cash, “valuable papers,” Iran’s ballistic missile program. In the last six Milwaukee Sentinel & Journal, 1/30/98. and goods in kind (e.g., food, metal, and other months, Russia has thwarted two attempts goods) with each category amounting to made by Iran to acquire ballistic missile tech- Three foreigners were apprehended in Rus- about a third of the total price. Also, accord- nology. First, Russia expelled an Iranian dip- sia by Federal Security Service (FSB) offi- ing to the deal, Ukraine must pay Moscow lomat based in Moscow for his efforts to cials in mid-4/98. The suspects had attempted $100-150 million annually for spent nuclear secure Russian missile help. Second, Russia to smuggle 21.7 tons of “alloy steel” [likely fuel that will be sent to and buried in remote canceled a contract with Iran made by NPO maraging steel] to Iran through Azerbaijan. areas of Russia. As of 11/17/97, Ukraine and Trud, a former state owned Russian com- The foreigners, whose nationalities were not TVEL were still negotiating a Russian pro- pany. One U.S. official said, “for their own disclosed, used the credentials of several posal to create an insurance fund (roughly interests, the Russians are getting serious Russian trade companies. Alloy steel, such $200 million) for the joint venture. TVEL-En- about closing the gap between what they’ve as that being smuggled, can be used in rocket ergy will have 1.85 million hryvnas in “nomi- said repeatedly and what’s actually happen- technology. An unnamed FSB official said nal equity” (about $1 million). The FSPU will ing.” U.S. officials also said that the Russian that the foreigners would be charged with control 30 percent of TVEL-Energy for government has stopped any state assis- smuggling but not with violating interna- Ukraine. Two private Ukrainian firms, VA Bank tance which would violate Russia’s commit- tional missile technology nonproliferation and a Ukrainian-Andorran joint venture, ment to the Missile Technology Control accords. Alloy steel is not on the Russian AMP, will control 10 and 15 percent, respec- Regime (MTCR). list of materials subject to export restrictions. tively. The Russian fuel maker, TVEL, will hold Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 1/16/98, p. 8. Representatives from the Iranian embassy 35 percent of shares. Russia’s Inkombank will said Iran “has never in any way tried to gain possess the remaining 10 percent. In their fourth round of discussions since access to Russian missile technology,” nor Energoatom Executive Director Vitaly August 1997, the United States and Russia will it in the future. A Russian Foreign Min- Tolstonogov said that by the end of 1997 have made little progress in reaching an istry spokesman announced on 4/14/98, Russia would finish supplying fuel in ex- agreement ending Russian missile aid to Iran. “There is no cooperation whatsoever in the change for all of Ukraine’s strategic nuclear The goal of these negotiations is effective area of development of any technology which warheads, which it gave up under the 1994 enforcement and monitoring of export con- has anything to [do] with [the transfer of] trilateral agreement between Ukraine, Rus- trol on Russia’s part to avoid U.S. sanctions. missile technology to Iran.” sia, and the United States. By signing the $1 According to U.S. law, Russian institutes and Interfax, 4/15/98. AFP, 4/15/98, [Online] http:/ billion deal, Ukraine received free fuel in ex- /guide-p.infoseek.com. research facilities are subject to sanctions if change for allowing Russia to destroy its

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 143 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments nuclear warheads. reactors are of Russian design, and 75 per- The United States and Russia are placing Alexei Breus, NuclearFuel, 11/17/97. Ukrainian cent of the required parts are Russian-made. conflicting pressures on Ukraine over its Weekly (Kiev), 10/12/97. Financial Times East The European Bank for Reconstruction and potential sale of turbines to Russia. Russia European Energy Report, 10/97. Development has pledged financial support needs the turbines to construct a nuclear The European Union’s TACIS (Technical for these projects in an effort to shut down power plant in Iran. Ukraine would prefer to Assistance to the CIS) 1997 budget included Chernobyl by the year 2000. allow turbine manufacturer Turboatom to sell Thomas Nilsen, Bellona: Nuclear Chronicle From at least one turbine to Russia. Ukraine is not ECU13 million to improve safety in Ukrainian Russia, 12/97, pp. 6-7. nuclear power plants. On 11/20/97 in New expected to make a final decision until late March 1998. If Ukraine sells the turbines to York, delegates from 50 donor countries will Ukrainian law-enforcement officials confis- debate plans for the closure of the three re- Russia, Russia has promised to provide its cated a capsule containing Rubidium-87 and own technology and credits to complete two maining Chernobyl nuclear reactors and the detained two individuals shortly after they funding of a new sarcophagus over the ru- power plants in Ukraine. If Ukraine decides entered Ukraine from Belarus. It has been not to sell the turbines, however, they will be ined fourth reactor. Ukrainian President Le- speculated that the rubidium may have come onid Kuchma and US Vice President Albert forced to forfeit all future dealings with Rus- from Russia since most laboratories that pro- sian firms, resulting in a loss of hundreds of Gore will chair the conference. The new sar- duce the radioactive substance are located cophagus will cost an estimated $750 mil- millions of dollars. The United States op- there. One gram of Rubidium-87 on the world poses the transfer of any nuclear technol- lion. In June 1997 in Denver, at the “Summit market is worth approximately $2,000, how- of Eight,” the G-7 countries decided to grant ogy to Iran, despite the fact that Iran has ever, its sale is strictly regulated. Therefore, promised to accept international safeguards $300 million to the project. As of 11/19/97, the confiscated material may have com- the European Commission was looking at for the new facility. manded a much higher price on the black Pavel Polityuk, Ukrainian Weekly, 2/22/98, p. 2. possibly donating $100 million, while the market. Yaro Bihun, Ukrainian Weekly, 2/22/98, p. 1. European Bank for Reconstruction and De- Viktor Yadukha, Segodnya, [Online] http:// velopment already provided some funds. home.eastview.com, 12/23/97. Also, the Czech Republic has offered Ukraine $50,000 toward upgrading the old sarcopha- On 2/14/98, U.S. envoy Stephen Sestanovich LATIN AMERICA gus. Ukraine will share in funding the con- and Secretary of the Ukrainian State Com- struction with $50 million, and add the $100 mission on Security and Defense Vladimir million needed to service the shelter over Gorbulin agreed in Kiev on a Ukrainian policy not to sell nuclear technology or equipment seven years. The current sarcophagus, which ARGENTINA was put in place after the 1986 disaster, is in to Iran, as well as other issues concerning Nuclear “very poor condition.” nonproliferation and missile technology. U.S. Kuchma has promised to close down State Department spokesman James Foley In 1998, Argentina will privatize as a pack- Chernobyl’s three operating reactors by the stated that the United States does not want age its three nuclear reactors: Embalse, year 2000. Nonetheless, his promise is con- Ukraine to supply Iran with nuclear power Atucha-1, and the unfinished Atucha-2. En- ditional upon Western aid, among other pre- turbines. Washington has asked Ukraine not ergy Secretary Alfredo Mirkin said it is pos- requisites. If the preconditions are not met, to sell such turbines to Russia, which in turn sible that no company will be interested in Ukraine may decide to upgrade the reactors, would sell them to Iran. The agreement stems purchasing Atucha-2, which has an accu- Yuri Kostenko, Ukrainian minister of envi- from U.S. efforts to reduce Ukraine’s depen- mulated debt of $2.5 billion. dence on Russia for nuclear fuel and equip- El Clarin, 12/23/97; in National Commission on ronment and nuclear safety, told Interfax on Atomic Energy, [Online] http://www.cnea.edu.ar. 11/17/97. Among the issues to be discussed ment. The United States has also expressed at the 11/20/97 conference in New York, is interest in signing an accord with Kiev on BRAZIL how Ukraine would compensate for its lost peaceful nuclear cooperation. This accord energy-production capacity if the Chernobyl would allow U.S. firms, such as Nuclear plant were to close. Plans as of 11/19/97 called Westinghouse Electric, to bid on a $1.2 bil- On 11/19/97, the United States announced for two new VVER-1000 reactors to be built lion project to finish construction of two that it will sell nuclear fuel to Brazil. The an- at the Khmelnitsky and Rovno nuclear power Russian-designed nuclear power plants in nouncement marks the end of a 25-year ban plants. Construction on these reactors Ukraine. On 2/8/98, the Clinton administra- on U.S. nuclear sales to Brazil. The U.S. firm started in the mid-1980s but was halted after tion prevented the sale of nuclear fuel and Westinghouse will supply fuel for Brazil’s the Chernobyl accident and the break-up of technology to Ukraine until it officially can- Angra-I nuclear reactor at a cost of $100 mil- the Soviet Union. On 11/14/97, Kuchma and cels its plans to sell nuclear-powered turbines lion. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly to Iran. Rede Globo Television (Rio de Janeiro), 11/21/ 97; in FBIS-LAT-97-325, 11/21/97. Chubais reviewed possible Russian partici- Xinhua, 2/9/98. Xinhua, 2/14/98. pation in that construction. The VVER-1000

144 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

Missile specialists. Television (Cairo), 2/4/98; in FBIS-NES-98-035, The first prototype of the Brazilian space Agencia Folha, 11/21/97; in Brasil Online, 11/ 2/4/98. Christine Hauser, Reuters, 2/4/98. launch vehicle (VLS) was destroyed by 21/97, [Online] http://www.uol.com.br/bol/. Luis Felipe Lampreia, Ministry of Foreign Relations IRAN ground control 65 seconds after launch on (Brasilia), [Online] http://www.mre.gov.br, 1/21/ 11/2/97. One of four booster rockets failed to 97. O Estado de Sao Paulo, [Online] http:// Nuclear ignite, and the VLS-1-VO1 drifted off course www.estado.com.br/, 11/25/97. Monica Yanakiew, On 10/29/97, Chinese officials provided “au- until destroyed at an altitude of 3,230 m. On Agencia Estado (Sao Paulo), 11/21/97; in FBIS- LAT-97-327, 11/23/97. thoritative, written communications” that board was the second Brazilian data collec- China will not engage in new nuclear coop- tion satellite, SCD-2A, manufactured by the eration with Iran. China will complete two National Institute of Space Research (INPE) current projects: a zero-power research reac- at a cost of $5 million. The VLS was pro- MIDDLE EAST AND tor that uses heavy water and natural ura- duced by the Aerospace Technology Cen- AFRICA nium, scheduled to be completed by the end ter (CTA) of the air force for $6.5 million. of 1997; and the production of zirconium Russian technicians, who designed the iner- tubes, designed to hold fuel pellets in the tial guidance, anti-rolling, and mechanical fin- core of a nuclear reactor. China has also activation systems used in the VLS, had agreed not to provide equipment to construct presented a report warning that the missile ALGERIA a heavy water, low-enriched uranium nuclear launch had only a 15 percent chance of suc- Nuclear reactor to Iran, and to halt its plans to build a cess, and identified propellant failure as a Algerian Ambassador to Ethiopia Smail uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion plant possibility. That report noted that VLS stages Chergui deposited Algeria’s instrument of in Iran. had been ready for launch for over two years ratification for the Treaty of Pelindaba (the Nuclear Fuel, 11/3/97, p. 3. and were stored in a horizontal position until African nuclear-weapon-free zone treaty) in 9/97, while the guidance system was being Addis Ababa on 2/11/98. Algeria is the third Israeli intelligence sources reported that Iran developed. The inertial guidance system was member state of the OAU to ratify the treaty, is recruiting nuclear scientists employed originally designed for use in an anti-ballis- of the 48 that have signed it. during the apartheid era in South Africa. An tic missile system, as part of the Soviet re- Xinhua, 2/12/98; in Dialog, [Online] http:// unidentified South African government sponse to the U.S. Strategic Defense dialog.carl.org, 2/12/98. spokesman said “There may well be nuclear Initiative program. Brazilian technicians in the experts who have been made redundant in CTA developed software to recalibrate guid- EGYPT South Africa and who are willing to give their ance beyond the 30,000 m limit of the Rus- Nuclear skills to any country prepared to pay.” Matthew Campbell and Uzi Mahnami, Sunday sian system. Argentine President Carlos Menem inaugu- Ricardo Bonalume Neto, Folha de Sao Paulo, Times (London), 12/21/97. [Online] http://www.uol.com.br/fsp, 11/3/97. rated a $100 million nuclear research reactor Pedro Paulo Rezende, Correio Braziliense, during his visit to Egypt on 2/4/98. The Ar- The Israel Consulate News reported on 2/ [Online] http://www.correioweb.com.br/, 11/3/97. gentine firm Invap constructed the 22 MW 18/98 that Iran has been working with the reactor, which will be used to train personnel Russian Atomic Energy Ministry in hopes Brazilian Foreign Minister Luiz Felipe and fabricate radioisotopes for industrial and of purchasing a 40 MW nuclear reactor from Lampreia and Russian Foreign Minister medical purposes. The reactor is installed at Russia. Professor Gerald Steinberg, an ex- Yevgeniy Primakov signed an agreement on the Inshas Nuclear Research Center, 60 km pert on arms control at Bar-Ilan University, 11/21/97 to jointly launch satellites and to from Cairo, under the jurisdiction of the Au- said that if Iran sought to produce pluto- permit Russian launch of satellites from the thority of Atomic Energy. Egypt was respon- nium for a nuclear weapons program, “a 40 Brazilian Alcantara launch facility. The deal sible for engineering, management of MW dedicated reactor is a far more efficient replaces a 1988 protocol specifying more construction and design, and assembly, and means than the Bushehr reactor for the pro- operational content in congruence with both will be responsible for daily operations of duction of electricity.” However, Russian states’ international nonproliferation commit- this turnkey facility. The plant complies with Atomic Energy Minister Viktor Mikhailov ments. A second agreement was signed to standards established by the IAEA, and is said that “nuclear cooperation between Rus- create a high-level commission on bilateral subject to IAEA inspections. Invap chair- sia and Iran has never been nor is of a mili- relations to be headed by Russian Prime man Hector Otheguy said the facility abides tary nature.” Iran is receiving assistance from Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and Brazilian by the maximum recommendation of 20 per- China, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Vice President Marcos Maciel. The agree- cent enriched uranium for this type of reac- Russia for uranium mining, and for construc- ments provide for the exchange of research- tor. tion of a research reactor and a uranium con- ers. Brazilian Science and Technology El Cronista, [Online] http://www.cronista.com/, centration plant. 2/4/98. AFP English Wire, 2/4/98; in Dialog Minister Israel Vargas noted that Brazil seeks IINS News Service, [Online] http:// [Online], http://dialog.carl.org/. Diario Los Andes, to recruit Russian space and nuclear energy www.iinsnews.com/, 2/19/98. Valentin Kunin, [Online] http://www.losandes.net/, 2/4/98. ESC RIA-Novosti, 2/19/98.

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 145 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

Russia will finish construction on a 1,000 solid fuel propellant plants in Iran. Iran is face-to-surface missile program were work- MW light water reactor at Bushehr to fulfill a now believed to be “self-sufficient” in the ing in Iran. $780 million contract. While Iran has finished chemicals needed for solid fuel. China has Yonhap (Seoul), 11/18/97; in FBIS-TAC-97-322, the equivalent of five months of work on the also been a supplier of “subsystems, guid- 11/18/97. reactor in the past 25 months, Russia plans ance kits, and telemetry equipment” for the to complete the reactor in the next 30 months. Shahab-3 (“shooting star”) and Shahab-4 liq- The U.S. CIA announced that Kazak Colo- Both Iran and Russia deny that the project uid fuel surface-to-surface missiles. A Ger- nel Oleg Sinkin was involved in a scheme to will provide Iran with nuclear weapons tech- man intelligence report estimated that Iran’s buy SS-21 Scarab short-range missiles from nology. missile program, with China’s help, “when Russia and then sell them to Iran. Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 11/19/97. David Hoffman, Washington Post, 2/22/98. completed, will be comparable to modern Western systems.” The report says that Missile China and North Korea have sent “teams of Iran’s purchases of equipment from China technicians” to Iran to work on the final On 11/5/97 the U.S. House of Representa- “clearly demonstrate the intention in the fu- stages of Tehran’s surface-to-surface ballis- tives voted to extend from 30 days to 120 ture to manufacture large quantities of solid tic missile program. Earlier efforts in this pro- days its review of President Bill Clinton’s rocket fuel.” Iran has embarked on a long- gram concentrated on using Russian certification that China had agreed not to range solid-fuel surface-to-surface missile technicians to extend the range of Scud sur- provide nuclear weapons technology to program. Surface-to-surface missiles emerg- face-to-surface missiles. The latest program states “such as Iran and Pakistan.” The ing from this program will have ranges of involves more than 100 Chinese and North House asked Clinton to impose sanctions 4,500 km and 10,000 km respectively. Accord- Korean technicians, with the goal of giving on China and Russia for selling advanced ing to U.S. intelligence experts, these longer- Iran the indigenous capability to build bal- missiles and technology to Iran. House mem- range projects are probably based on listic missiles by the middle of 1998. Those bers criticized companies in Russia and China Russian rather than Chinese technology. technicians are working to extend the range for delivering cruise missiles and ballistic mis- The Iran Brief, 11/10/97, pp. 1, 2. of the Nodong missile to more than 1,000 sile technology to Iran. miles. Iran is attempting to develop the Reuters, 11/6/97. On 11/12/97, the U.S. House of Representa- tives approved stronger sanctions against Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 surface-to-surface Western intelligence services are concerned countries, companies, and research institutes missiles with ranges up to 1,000 miles. Lead- that U.S. firms are contributing to Iran’s mis- that aid Iran in developing medium-range and ers in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said they sile development through Russian compa- long-range missiles. had successfully test-launched a Shahab nies. Several Russian companies that have Reuters, 11/13/97. prototype in 10/97. cooperation programs with U.S. firms are also Con Coughlin, Washington Times, 11/23/97, pp. 1, 5. working together with Iran. The companies An Iranian diplomat was arrested on 11/14/ are Energomash, a Russian consortium that 97 in Moscow for attempting to purchase On 12/15/97, satellite reconnaissance of Iran’s produces engines and has relations with Pratt missile designs from Russian specialists. The Shahid Hemat Industrial Group research fa- & Whitney; the Polyus Institute, which spe- Federal Security Service (FSB) detained the cility detected “the heat signature of an en- cializes in guidance systems and has links Iranian as part of an operation aimed at pre- gine test for a new generation of Iranian with Litton; and the TsAGI Institute, which venting “illegal exports of technology, sci- ballistic missiles, each capable of carrying a is working on aerodynamics and is cooper- entific, and technological information and 2,200 pound warhead more than 800 miles.” ating with Lockheed-Martin. services used in creating WMD, arms and The test marked another advance of a liquid- Le Point (Paris), 11/8/97, p. 33; in FBIS-WEU- military technologies.” The report did not say 97-316, 11/8/97. fueled intermediate-range missile that would whether this was the Iranian’s first attempt enable Iran for the first time to strike Israel, at acquiring missile designs from Russia, U.S. intelligence reports that China, despite all of the Persian Gulf emirates, most of Saudi however, the diplomat was immediately de- Arabia, and Turkey with warheads capable a May 1997 pledge not to provide nuclear ported to Iran. On 11/16/97, Iran denied any technology to unsafeguarded nuclear facili- of carrying chemical and biological agents. connection to the “businessman.” Russian U.S. government analysts agree that “this is ties, has continued its nuclear cooperation President Boris Yeltsin’s spokesman, Sergei with both Iran and Pakistan. China has sup- the gravest short-term menace to U.S. troops Yastrzhembsky, said, “the man’s arrest and allies in the Middle East.” plied missile technology to Iran since 1985, showed Moscow was not cooperating with when it transferred solid-fuel technology. Iran Barton Gelman, Washington Post, 12/31/97, p. Tehran in missile development.” A16. Globes, [Online] http://www.globes.co.il/, subsequently built the solid-fuel Zelzal-2, a Reuters, 11/16/97. Anatoly Verbin, Washington 12/31/97. 200 km-range artillery rocket, and the 150 km- Times, 11/17/97. range Nazeat-10. To avoid restrictions on its Senior U.S. officials said that the Russian ability to acquire the materials to manufac- An unnamed Israeli diplomat said on 11/18/ government has promised to stop Russian ture solid fuel, Iran asked China to construct 97 that experts in North Korea’s Scud-C sur- companies and scientists from assisting

146 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

A two-year investigation by Britain’s MI-5 Russia’s claim that it is curbing assistance proposing that UNSC Resolution 687 (1991) intelligence agency and its European coun- to Tehran’s medium-range missile program. be modified to terminate IAEA investigative terparts has uncovered a sophisticated sup- The continued aid to Iran also demonstrates activities in Iraq. However, the IAEA is still ply network from Britain through Germany that the Clinton administration has been un- uncertain about some aspects of Iraq’s pre- and Austria ending in Iran, used to acceler- able to stop the exchanges. war program, such as their gas centrifuge ate the Iranian program for producing mis- Bill Gertz, Washington Times, 2/23/98. enrichment program and progress in siles and nuclear warheads. British customs weaponization. The IAEA does not have a officials said that Iran planned to use Britain IRAQ complete picture of Iraq’s procurement net- as “a conduit for acquiring high-strength Nuclear work, and some documents seized by the steel of a quality used in missile casing, and IAEA are still untranslated. These docu- The International Atomic Energy Agency centrifuges for weapons-grade uranium.” Ira- ments could turn up new leads about the (IAEA) has said that it has a “technically nian scientists have already acquired other developments in Iraq’s nuclear program since coherent picture of Iraq’s past nuclear pro- vital components for their program, disguis- the 1990-91 Gulf War, such as information gram,” but also that “it is not possible to ing some as medical equipment and auto about its weapons activities, centrifuges, or guarantee the picture is complete, nor that parts. A police raid in Germany uncovered a electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS). there could not be some concealed compo- front company for the Defense Industries Mark Hibbs, Nuclear Fuel, 1/12/98, p. 3. nents, activities and facilities.” Rolf Ekeus, Organization, an arm of the Iranian Defense former chairman of UNSCOM, reported in Ministry. German authorities found docu- A 16-member U.N. arms inspection team, June 1997 that the key ingredient needed by ments detailing a huge purchasing operation. headed by Scott Ritter, left Iraq on 1/16/98 Iraq to build a nuclear weapon was 35 pounds Douglas Davis, Jewish Telegraph Agency, [Online] after Iraq blocked it from carrying out mis- http://www.jta.org/, 1/19/98. of highly enriched uranium. Ekeus said, “it is sions for two consecutive days on the clear that the Iraqi specialists managed to grounds that “the composition of the team U.S. CIA Director George Tenet testified be- acquire a considerable understanding of lacks balance.” Ritter said, “We’ll be back,” fore Congress on 1/28/98 that Iran would weapons design and warhead designs.” Iraq stating that the departure of his team in no have the capability to launch missiles against sent a letter to the IAEA in September 1997 way reflects “a change in UNSCOM’s deter- Saudi Arabia in less than 10 years. He said which said that Iraq “had been unable to lo- mination to conduct inspections.” Other U.N. that China recently renewed its pledge to halt cate any additional documentation that might inspection teams have been able to carry out sales of anti-ship cruise missiles to Iran. Fur- have indicated the extent of development of their work without limitations. ther, as he testified in 1997, Iran received ex- the nuclear weapon and associated tech- Xinhua (Beijing), 1/16/98; in FBIS-CHI-98-016, tensive missile assistance from North Korea nologies at the time of the program aban- 1/16/98. and would probably have medium-range donment.” Also, the IAEA reported in missiles capable of hitting Saudi Arabia and September 1997 that Iraq was “unable to pro- A draft report of the U.S. House of Repre- Israel in “less than 10 years.” Since that time, vide a verifiable explanation of the missing sentatives Task Force on Terrorism and Un- Iran has succeeded in gaining technology drawings” or of a missing “drawing register conventional Weapons released on 2/10/98 and materials from Russia. Tenet stated that which should have recorded the title of each alleged that Iraq has moved some of its WMD in 1998, combined with recent Iranian ad- drawing.” David Kay, UNSCOM’s first chair- and related materials to neighboring coun- vances, Iran “could have a medium-range man, estimated that at the time of the 1990- tries. The report stated that 400 Scud mis- missile much sooner than I assessed last 91Gulf War, Iraq was six months away from siles were moved to Yemen and Sudan in year.” building a crude nuclear weapon and two mid-1991, and that in 1992, Iraq moved 27.5 Hearings of the Senate Intelligence Committee: years away from a refined weapon. Gordon pounds of highly enriched Uranium-235 to World Threat Assessment, 1/28/98. Oehler, former director of the U.S. CIA’s Non- Sudan, and later moved it to Algeria. The proliferation Center, said that despite U.N. report also said that Iraq and Sudan have Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) is and U.S. intelligence efforts, some materials jointly built a mustard gas weapons plant in cooperating with the Iranian intelligence ser- removed from Iraq’s main uranium enrichment Sudan. This plant allegedly employs Iraqi vice to coordinate exchanges under a joint facility at Tarmiyah “have still not been technicians and has produced chemical weap- Russian-Iranian missile research program. found.” In response to these allegations, Iraq ons for the Sudanese government. In re- U.S. intelligence officials said that in the com- insists that “all nuclear program activities sponse to this article, the Algerian ing weeks, three Russian missile experts are were practically terminated and abandoned ambassador to the United States denied that expected to be in Tehran. The experts will during April 1991, three months after the Gulf Iraq was storing nuclear weapons material in teach subjects ranging from “guidance sys- War.” Algeria. tems to firing circuitry and the pyrotechnics Bob Windrem, MSNBC, [Online] http:// Richard J. Newman, U.S. News and World Report, of explosive systems.” If Russian missile ex- www.msnbc.com/, 12/5/97. 2/23/98, pp. 18-26. perts continue to aid in Iran’s missile devel- opment their actions would contradict The Russian Federation has drafted a reso- lution for the U.N. Security Council (UNSC)

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 147 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments

Missile tors from gaining access to the material. A Yossef Bodansky, director of the U.S. House German prosecutors opened the trial of four “senior figure” in the opposition movement of Representatives Task Force on Terrorism businessmen accused of exporting missile said the documents deal with the purchase and Unconventional Warfare, said that Iraq launchers for Scud surface-to-surface mis- of raw material to be used in Iraq’s WMD maintains the capability to produce WMD siles to Iraq. The lead prosecutor said that program and that his knowledge came from through joint programs with Libya and the former managers at Havert Industrie had “sources inside Iraqi intelligence.” Sudan. Bodansky said that the Task Force’s sold 35 missile launchers and components Jay Bushinsky, Jerusalem Post, [Online] http:// report was compiled using information from for 50 additional launchers to Iraq’s arms in- www.jpost.co.il, 11/6/97. Christopher Walker, The Arab opposition movements and British, Times (London), [Online] http://www.Sunday- dustry from 1988 to 1990. The accused busi- times.co.uk/, 11/7/97. German, and Israeli intelligence sources. nessmen used faked documents to secure Richard J. Newman, U.S. News and World Report, government export guarantees. In customs 2/23/98. Jim Wolf, Reuters, [Online] http:// UNSCOM head Richard Butler reported that dailynews.yahoo.com, 2/15/98. documents, the managers described compo- Iraq fitted biological weapons into missile nents for the missiles as “seamless pipes, warheads. Butler said “the biological weap- Sergei Yastrzhembsky, a spokesman for Rus- round in diameter,” while communications ons were loaded onto missiles that could be sian President Boris Yeltsin said on 2/2/98 equipment was labeled “erasers and school put on mobile launchers and driven away to that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein “had notebooks.” avoid being hit by bombs.” Butler did not agreed to let United Nations teams inspect The Times (London), [Online] http://www.Sunday- say where he received his information, but times.co.uk/news, 11/5/97. Reuters, 11/4/97. eight special sites [in Iraq] that they had said Iraq had enough biological material like been forbidden to enter,” and that Hussein anthrax or botulin toxin to “blow away Tel New UNSCOM chief Richard Butler said on would meet with U.N. chief inspector Rich- Aviv.” 11/5/97 that Iraq may be using the break in ard Butler. Iraq immediately denied that any Christopher S. Wren, New York Times, [Online] such agreement had been reached. Iraqi U.N. inspections to move equipment that http://www.nytimes.com/, 1/27/98. could be used to manufacture missiles out deputy foreign minister, Riyadh al-Qaysi said of range of cameras set up to monitor the Russia, France, and Turkey discussed a dip- he was “shocked.” “I should like to say that equipment. According to a report Butler filed lomatic plan to resolve the crisis between that statement is totally, totally, incorrect. No with the U.N. Security Council, Iraqi officials Iraq and U.N. weapons inspectors. Russian such thing has been discussed.” appear to have moved “significant pieces of Michael Specter, New York Times, 2/3/98, envoy to Iraq Viktor Posuvalyuk said that [Online] http://www.nytimes.com. dual-capable equipment, subject to monitor- the “absolute majority of countries are ing by the commission’s remote camera moni- against any military action” to force Iraq to During the third quarter of 1997, U.N. inspec- toring system, out of view of the cameras.” allow arms inspectors into presidential pal- tors in Iraq seized a confidential document That equipment includes balancing equip- aces. At the same time, international experts that outlined a 1995 agreement between Rus- ment used to position precision gyroscopes on missile warheads have gathered in Iraq sia and Iraq. The agreement said the Rus- that could be used in ballistic missiles. The with Iraqi and U.N. officials for a five-day sian government would sell Iraq report states that some cameras appear to forum. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine “sophisticated fermentation equipment that have been tampered with, moreover, the light- Albright said that she was still seeking a dip- would be used to develop biological weap- ing was turned off in areas subject to camera lomatic resolution, but if that failed, “Wash- ons” and the deal would be worth millions of monitoring. If inspections were to resume ington would use substantial force to make dollars. Other evidence that confirms immediately, inspectors would still need to Iraq back down.” Russia’s support for Iraq includes Iraq’s pur- reset security cameras and recheck the ma- New York Times, [Online] http:// chase of Russian missile gyroscopes in 1995. www.nytimes.com/, 2/2/98. chines or stocks they watch, according to Also, a Moscow based company, Mars Ro- Butler’s report. In the meantime, inspectors Western estimates indicate that the Iraqi tor, “provided facilities for the testing of mis- would be unsure whether equipment had sile equipment in Russia before it was sent been used to produce prohibited arms or army’s current capability is only a fraction of what it was during the 1990-91 Gulf War. Iraq to Iraq.” Russian President Boris Yeltsin components, and then “carted away to hid- warned that if the Unites States attacks Iraq ing places.” has managed to hide large number of bio- logical (botulin, anthrax germ culture) and for refusing to allow inspections, it could lead John M. Goshko, Washington Post, 11/6/97. Bar- to a “world war.” bara Crossette, New York Times [Online], http:// chemical (nerve and mustard gas) weapons www.nytimes.com/, 11/6/97. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 2/12/98, p. A1, from U.N. inspectors. Even if Iraq succeeds [Online] http://www.washingtonpost.com. in loading the biological and chemical weap- Members of the “Iraqi opposition” said on ons on missile warheads, launching the mis- ISRAEL 11/5/97 that the Palestine Authority’s em- siles will be difficult as Iraq has few launchers bassy in Baghdad was being used to hide (two to four) and not more than 30 Scud mis- Missile documents related to Iraq’s WMD. Opposi- siles. Israel asked the United States to fund the tion sources said that diplomatic immunity Yoshi Melman, Ha’aretz (Tel Aviv), 2/2/98, p. $150 million production and development at the embassy prevented U.N. arms inspec- B3.

148 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments cost of a third Arrow anti-missile battery. Is- Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai monitor military air traffic and electronic com- rael intends to use the Arrow system to de- and Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Ismail munications of Scud missile brigades in stroy incoming missiles armed with Karadayi met in Turkey on 12/8/97 to dis- Syria. The newsletter reports that Israel seeks non-conventional warheads at an altitude of cuss new weapons contracts and enhance- to station some of its F-15 and F-15I aircraft 40 km. ment of the Israeli-Turkish strategic alliance. in Turkey for possible use against Iranian Yerach Tal and Amnon Barzilai, Ha’aretz, [Online] “When we lock hands, we form a powerful nuclear facilities. Under the terms of the mili- http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng/, 11/6/97. fist,” said Mordechai. He stated, however, tary cooperation agreement signed in 1995, that defense cooperation between Turkey Turkey and Israel are permitted to station Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel was not directed at any third party. eight of their military aircraft in each others’ said on 11/16/97 that Iran’s missile program Both sides confirm that it was agreed in prin- territory permanently. Israel has used its air- could make that country a bigger threat to ciple to jointly produce the Arrow anti-mis- craft stationed in Turkey to conduct flights regional security than Iraq. He said that while sile missile. However, Israeli officials said that up to the Iranian border. However, on 12/11/ the international community focused on Iraq, Washington’s approval was necessary and 97, a senior Israeli Air Force official denied Iran was proceeding “unseen, unperturbed, that negotiations had not been concluded. that Israel will permanently station fighters and undisturbed” in developing a formidable Arieh O’Sullivan, Jerusalem Post, [Online] http:/ in Turkey. arsenal that includes intercontinental ballis- /www.jpost.co.il/, 12/9/97. Arieh O’Sullivan, Douglas Davis, Jerusalem Post, [Online] http:// tic missiles. “Stage One would reach our area, Jerusalem Post, pp. 1-2; in FBIS-NES-97-344, www.jpost.co.il/, 12/11/97. Arieh O’Sullivan, Stage Two it [sic] would reach Britain, and 12/10/97. Jerusalem Post, 12/12/97, p. 3; in FBIS-NES-97- Stage Three, believe it or not, they actually 346, 12/12/97. plan to reach the eastern seaboard of the Israel received the first of 25 advanced F-15I United States, Manhattan,” said Netanyahu. fighter planes in 11/97, part of a $2.2 billion The U.S. Department of Defense announced Paul Majendie, Reuters, 11/16/97. deal with the United States. Israel selected on 12/23/97 the possible sale of 45 AGM- the F-15I instead of the F-16 due to the former 142D (Popeye) air-to-ground missiles to Is- For fiscal year 1998, the U.S. Congress au- aircraft’s range and payload capabilities. The rael at an estimated cost of $41 million. The thorized budget increases beyond the $1.8 aircraft can reportedly reach Iran without re- AGM-142D missiles will allow Israel to in- billion annual foreign military financing pack- fueling and deliver 11 tons of bombs and crease its capability to target, strike, and de- age that had been allocated previously for missiles. The acquisition is part of a military stroy high-value and hardened/buried Israel’s in-country defense research, devel- plan to neutralize Iran’s Russian-backed targets. opment, and production programs. The au- nuclear and missile program. Two options Defense Link News, [Online] http:// www.defenselink.mil/news/, 12/23/97. thorization includes: an additional $12 million are under consideration: striking Iranian mis- for the Arrow anti-ballistic missile program sile plants in the cities of Shiraz, Kuramabad, Farhin, and Semnan, or targeting foreign sci- Israel’s surveillance satellite Ofek-4, for a total of $50.7 million; an additional $44.5 launched on 1/27/98, failed to reach proper million for the Nautilus laser anti-tactical mis- entists rather than the buildings at the sites. Air Force commander Major General Eytan orbit and is expected to burn up upon reen- sile program for a total of $61 million; an ad- try into the Earth’s atmosphere. Ofek-4 was ditional $12 million for Israel Aircraft Ben-Eliyahu said that the air force’s primary mission is to provide Israel with an aerial to replace Ofek-3, which was launched in April Industry’s “Hunter” unmanned aerial vehicle 1990 and has been operating nine months (UAV) program, for a total of $14.2 million; umbrella that includes defense against sur- face-to-surface missiles. When asked by the longer than planned. Israel plans to integrate and an additional $3.6 million for the “Pio- its surveillance satellites with its Arrow-2 neer” UAV program for a total of $50.6 mil- Israeli newspaper Yedi’ot Aharonot if the air force has the ability to destroy Iranian mis- anti-tactical ballistic missile, to create an anti- lion. missile system to counter the threat of at- Ran Dagoni, Globes, [Online] http:// siles on the ground, Ben-Eliyahu said that www.globes.co.il/, 11/26/97. “we are getting ready for that possibility, tack by missiles armed with too.” non-conventional warheads by Iran, Iraq, Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai Christopher Walker, London Times, 12/9/97, p. and Syria. announced that “Israel will launch pre- 12. Ron Ben-Yeshay, Yedi’ot Aharonot, (Tel Arieh O’Sullivan, Jerusalem Post, [Online] http:/ /www.jpost.co.il, 1/23/98. Ed Blanche, Jane’s emptive strikes against Iran if they continue Aviv), 12/7/97, p. 22; in FBIS-TAC-97-313, 11/ 9/97. Defence Weekly, 1/14/98, p. 4. to pose a threat with missiles or non-con- ventional weapons.” Mordechai’s warning The London-based Foreign Report news- The Israeli firm Rafael is developing the also appeared to be directed towards Syria, letter reported that Israel’s activities in Tur- MOAV air-launched anti-tactical ballistic mis- with whom peace talks have been stalled key include preparing for possible air attacks sile system, which aims to destroy short- since December 1995. Israel claims that Iran against Iranian nuclear facilities and moni- range ballistic missiles during the early stages is within 18 months of developing a liquid- toring military activities in northern Syria. of flight. MOAV incorporates elements of the fueled ballistic missile identified as the With Turkish consent, Israel has built moni- Python-4 infrared guided, short-range, air- Shahab-3. toring stations near the Syrian border to to-air missile, and of the classified radar- Ed Blanche, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 12/5/97.

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 149 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments guided air-to-air missile known as Alto or dual-use guidelines. The South African zir- searchers have been approached by Silex Derby. MOAV will be fitted with an Alto/ conium tube plant was built between 1979 Systems to work on a similar project in Aus- Derby propellant motor, and will have an es- and 1984 using machine tools and other tralia. timated range of about 80 km. The launch equipment from West Germany. The deal has Ann MacLachlan and Michael Knapik, platform is an unspecified long-endurance raised questions about the effectiveness of NuclearFuel, 12/29/97, p. 4. unmanned air vehicle under development at the South African nuclear export control sys- Israel Aircraft Industries. tem. After the AEC board of directors ap- SYRIA Flight International, 2/18-2/24/98, p. 31. proved the sale of the plant, the AEC sold Nuclear the components to Pacific Development Ser- According to Russian Atomic Energy Min- SOUTH AFRICA vices (PDS) of the Channel Islands. PDS, ister Viktor Mikhailov, Russia and Syria Nuclear which is run by experts who worked in South signed a memorandum on bilateral coopera- Africa’s nuclear energy program, was re- The South African Atomic Energy Corpora- tion in the civil nuclear power industry to sponsible for obtaining the necessary export tion (AEC) will sell its zirconium tubing plant affirm a similar 1983 understanding between licenses. Stumpf said that in early December to China for $5 million. SABC television news the Soviet Union and Syria. The memoran- 1997 the AEC and PDS separately notified said it uncovered the sale in a joint probe dum envisions Russian aid to Syria’s nuclear the Council for Nonproliferation of Weap- with the Sunday Independent newspaper. On research. Russian Justice Minister Sergei ons of Mass Destruction, the country’s au- 12/3/97, police and immigration officers Stephashin headed the government delega- thority on dual-use nuclear goods, that raided AEC premises at Pelindaba, finding tion, which included Mikhailov, to Syria on the plant would be exported to China. How- 40 Chinese nuclear technicians who had been 2/20/98. A Minatom spokesman said that one ever, neither the AEC, nor PDS, nor China working there in secret since October 1997 promising area for cooperation was nuclear has filed an export permit request with the to dismantle the plant for shipment back to waste disposal. council. Abdul Minty, deputy director-gen- China. The sale was reportedly rushed to con- RIA-Novosti, 2/23/98, [Online] http://www.ria- eral of South Africa’s Ministry of Foreign novosti.com. Interfax, 2/20/98. clusion so that it would take place before the Affairs and chairman of the export control government’s review of scientific and tech- authority, only learned of the case from the nological institutions is reported to the cabi- TURKEY press in December 1997. Minty is respon- net in 1998. A U.S. Department of State Nuclear sible for all of the country’s nuclear prolif- spokesman said that although “the transfer The Turkish Electricity Generation and eration and international arms control affairs. of zirconium fuel fabrication technology and Transmission Corporation (TEAS) has or- According to Stumpf, it is not clear whether equipment is not normally a proliferation- dered the construction of Turkey’s first PDS should get authorization for export be- sensitive issue,” the United States is seek- nuclear center, which is to include two reac- cause it is “technically a foreign company.” ing assurance that the facility will not be tors and will be completed in 2006. Accord- Chinese experts worked at the Pelindaba transferred to Iran after its export from South ing to TEAS, the three construction bids plant for several weeks packing equipment Africa to China. under final consideration by Turkey are from for shipment, while the council took no ac- Andrew Koopman, Cape Times, 12/12/97; in In- the U.S. firm Westinghouse, Atomic Energy tion. In recent years, the council has suf- dependent Online, http://www.inc.co.za, 12/12/ of Canada Limited (AECL), and NPI, a joint 97. Star; in Independent Online, http:// fered from limited resources and expertise. venture between Germany’s Siemens and www.inc.co.za/, 12/12/97. Guardian (London), Mark Hibbs, NuclearFuel, 12/29/97, p. 3. Mark 12/14/97. Simon Barber, Business Day, [Online] Hibbs, NuclearFuel, 1/12/98, pp. 4-5. France’s Framatome. http://www.bday.co.za, 12/18/97. Foro Nuclear FLASH (Madrid), 11/1/97, p. 8. The AEC announced in November 1997 that Missile The South African Ministry of Foreign Af- it will cease development of the molecular While Turkish authorities had earlier threat- fairs (MFA) confirmed on 12/18/97 that China laser isotope separation (MLIS) uranium ened to block delivery of Russian S-300 PMU- has not yet provided end-user certification enrichment process, after French partner 1 surface-to-air missiles to Cyprus (or to use for the zirconium tube plant South Africa is Cogema withdrew from the venture. AEC air strikes to destroy them if delivered), on 1/ selling to China. According to Waldo Stumpf, chief executive officer Waldo Stumpf said on 17/98 Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz AEC chief executive officer, the AEC will re- 12/18/97 that due to AEC budget cuts and said that Turkey would not interfere with quire an end-user statement from China be- South Africa’s budget deficit, “we are out of delivery of the missiles or seek to destroy fore the plant leaves South Africa to assure that business.” Stumpf said that a staff of them. In justifying the decision, Yilmaz noted that “this plant will not be re-exported to 200, many of them among “the world’s most assurances from the United States that the Iran.” The MFA said that there are three advanced laser specialists,” will be directly Cypriots could not actually use the missiles, pieces of equipment, described by Stumpf affected by the closure. He said “a number as well as concerns that an attack on the as CNC machines tools used to make com- of these specialists are negotiating with over- missiles could escalate tensions between plex molds, which require authorization for seas organizations to accept appointments.” Turkey and Greece. Although Turkish civil- export under the Nuclear Suppliers Group Unconfirmed reports indicate that some re-

150 The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer 1998 Nuclear and Missile Trade and Developments ian officials are said to be in agreement with Zemlya site to conduct hydrodynamic tests, Yilmaz’s decision, some military officials ex- which did not release any nuclear power, in press doubt. order to verify the safety and storage of Gennadiy Charodeyev, Izvestia (Moscow), 1/13/ nuclear weapons. Petrov noted that all other 98, p. 3; in FBIS-TAC-98-014, 1/14/98. Zeynep countries which posses nuclear arsenals Gurcanli, Hurriyet (Istanbul), 1/17/98, p. 16; in FBIS-WEU-98-021, 1/21/98. conduct such tests. The Japanese news agency Kyodo Tsushin reported that Rus- Turkey will increase its order of Israel’s sia had conducted sub-critical nuclear tests Popeye missiles from 100 to 200 missiles. The on Novaya Zemlya, but Petrov denied that missiles will be deployed on Turkey’s F-16 report. and F-4 aircraft, which can destroy Russian- Jamestown Monitor, 11/5/97. Lyudmila Boiko, RIA-Novosti (Moscow), [Online] http://www.ria- made S-300 missiles recently purchased by novosti.com, 11/13/97. Cyprus. By the end of the modernization pro- gram of the aircraft by Israel Aircraft Indus- The Proliferation Primer was published by tries, all of Turkey’s fighter aircraft will be the U.S. Senate on 1/12/98. The report, which equipped with Popeye-1 and -2 missiles. Is- followed a year-long investigation by the rael has already begun delivery of the first of Senate’s Governmental Affairs Subcommit- 100 Popeye missiles sold to Turkey in an tee on International Security, Proliferation earlier $100 million deal. According to senior and Federal Services, was particularly criti- defense sources, Turkey and Israel are also cal of China as a supplier of weapons of mass planning joint production of Delilah and Ar- destruction (WMD). The report named China row missiles. They have agreed in principle as “the most significant supplier of WMD- to the joint production of hundreds of related goods and technology to foreign Popeye-2 missiles, and are expected to agree countries.” The report was also critical of on a $500 million deal to jointly produce an Russia’s missile aid to Iran. The report advanced, long-range model of the Popeye- voiced concern about North Korea’s ballis- 1. The first Popeye-2 is expected in two-and- tic missile capability and its missile develop- a-half years. ment program. Metehan Demir, Jerusalem Post, [Online] http// Disarmament Diplomacy, 1/98, p. 35 www.jpost.co.il/, 12/5/97.

WORLD UNITED STATES

Nuclear Nuclear According to a secret report leaked to The U.S. government has acknowledged an Greenpeace by “industry sources,” world expert panel’s findings that the 8/16/97 seis- stockpiles of plutonium will triple over the mic disturbance on the Kara Sea floor was next 12 years. NAC International of Atlanta, not caused by a secret nuclear test con- Georgia, which transports spent nuclear fuel, ducted at the Russian nuclear test site of is the author of the report. The company pre- Novaya Zemlya. The U.S. Central Intelli- dicts that by 2010, the amount of plutonium gence Agency reported earlier that the dis- separated by the world’s nine commercial turbance had suspicious characteristics, and reprocessing plants will rise from 140 tons to asked Russia to explain the event. Russia 400 tons. The report, dated 3/95, estimates insisted all along that an earthquake caused that 119 tons of plutonium will originate from the tremors. On 11/13/97, Vladislav Petrov, a the Sellafield reprocessing plant in England, spokesman for Russia’s Minatom, said that while the Marcoule and La Hague plants in no nuclear tests were conducted at the Rus- France will account for an additional 208 tons. sian nuclear test site on Novaya Zemlya and The remaining 73 tons will come from smaller that none were under way there. However, plants in Japan, Russia, and India. Petrov said that Russia had used the Novaya New Scientist, 1/17/98, p. 12.

The Nonproliferation Review/Spring-Summer1998 151