Gallup Analytics: Different Data for Different Insights Jon Clifton, Managing Director, Gallup Global Analytics

GALLUP ANALYTICS: DIFFERENT DATA FOR DIFFERENT INSIGHTS JON CLIFTON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, GALLUP GLOBAL ANALYTICS

35% $10,000

$9,000 30% 29% 25% $8,000 25% $6,387 $6,474 $6,578 $7,000 $5,862 $6,047 20% $5,483 $6,288 $6,000 $5,000 15% $4,762 13% 13% 12% $4,000

Arab Spring Begins Spring Arab 9% 10% 8% $3,000 9% $2,000 5% $1,000 0% $0 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Thriving GDP per capita, PPP*

*In current international dollars, estimates from IMF

Copyright © 2015 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 5 Copyright © 2014 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2014 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2014 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. WORLD POLL COUNTRIES

30% $10,000

$9,000 25% $7,296 $7,423 $8,000 22% $7,261 21% $7,137 $6,627 $7,000 20% $6,228 21% $6,921 20% $6,000 $6,265 18% 15% 16% 16% $5,000

$4,000 10% 11% $3,000

$2,000 5% $1,000

0% $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Thriving GDP per capita, PPP* *In current international dollars, estimates from IMF

60% $16,000

57% $14,000 50% 46% 43% 48% 49% 47% $12,000 44% 40% 41% $11,189 $10,000 $9,023 $10,208 $10,697 $7,976 $9,134 $9,499 30% $8,649 $8,000

$6,000 20%

$4,000

10% $2,000

0% $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Thriving GDP per capita, PPP* *In current international dollars, estimates from IMF

30% $12,000 $11,259 $11,033 $10,725 25% $11,000 $10,289 $10,201 $9,989 21% $9,784 $10,000 20% 21% $9,150 21% 17% 20% 17% 15% $9,000 15% $8,000

10% $7,000 8% 5% $6,000

0% $5,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Thriving GDP per capita, PPP* *In current international dollars, estimates from IMF

 Based on International Labour Organization standards

 Identical questions asked in every country

 Comparable across countries

 Data collected in 140+ countries since 2009

 Asked every night in the U.S.

14 UNEMPLOYMENT – BLS & GALLUP COMPARISON

Gallup U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 10.0

8.8 9.0 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.4

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Pearson’s Correlation = .80 No seasonal adjustment, age 16 and older

15 GALLUP EMPLOYMENT CLASSIFICATIONS

 Unemployed – Not employed during the past seven days, even for one hour – Actively looking for work – Available for work

 Underemployed – The unemployed plus those who are employed part time (less than 30 hours per week) and want to work full time

 Employed Full Time for an Employer – Employed at least 30 hours per week for an employer

16 UNEMPLOYEMENT HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO GDP

250

200

GDP per 150 capita PPP International $ (2013, sqrt)100

0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Percentage of Workforce Unemployed (2013)

Pearson Correlation = -.14 FULL-TIME EMPLOYER JOBS – A BETTER METRIC

250

200

GDP per 150 capita PPP International $ (2013, sqrt) 100

0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Percentage of Workforce Employed Full Time for an Employer (2013)

Pearson Correlation =.81

18 Highest Global P2P Lowest Global P2P

United Arab Emirates 59% Burkina Faso 5%

Iceland 54% Niger 6%

Sweden 53% Malawi 6%

Bahrain 53% Haiti 6%

Russia 51% Sierra Leone 7%

Kuwait 49% Ethiopia 7%

Israel 47% Guinea 8%

Belarus 47% Mali 8%

Latvia 44% Liberia 8%

United States of America 43% Nepal 9%

20 HOW US FEELS ABOUT THE ECONOMY Economic Confidence Index Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on the combined responses to two questions, the first asking respondents to rate economic conditions in this country today, and second, whether they think economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. HIRING IN AMERICAN COMPANIES Job Creation Index The job Creation index is a measure of net hiring, determined by asking full- and part-time U.S. works, whether their employer is hiring new people and expanding the size of its workforce, not changing the size of its workforce, or letting people go and reducing the size of its workforce. AMERICANS AND THEIR DAILY SPENDING Consumer Spending Money spent or charged yesterday excluding the purchase of a home, vehicle, or normal household bills. Highest P2P in U.S. Lowest P2P in U.S.

North Dakota 52.2% West Virginia 36.1%

Nebraska 51.4% Mississippi 37.1%

Minnesota 50.7% New Mexico 37.4%

Maryland 49.6% Hawaii 37.7%

Wyoming 48.9% Florida 38.3%

Iowa 48.5% Michigan 38.9%

Colorado 48.4% Montana 39.2%

Alaska 48.4% South Carolina 39.6%

South Dakota 47.3% North Carolina 40.1%

Virginia 47.1% Oregon/Idaho 40.2%

Des Moines, IA 56.5% Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL 28.2%

Madison, WI 54.4% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 31.3%

Ogden-Clearfield, UT 53.9% Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 31.3%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC- 53.4% Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 31.4% VA-MD-WV

Little Rock, AR 51.8% Eugene-Springfield, OR 32.1%

Fayetteville, Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 51.7% Winston-Salem, NC 34.2%

Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 51.4% Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 34.9%

Salt Lake City, UT 50.6% Asheville, NC 35.8%

Baton Rouge, LA 50.5% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 36.0%

Austin-Round Rock, TX 50.4% Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 36.0%

JON CLIFTON Managing Director Gallup World Poll [email protected] Follow us @GallupAnalytics For more information go to analytics.gallup.com