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Cuaderno De Documentacion SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMÍA, MINISTERIO DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DE ECONOMÍA SUBDIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 45 Alvaro Espina Vocal Asesor 6 de Mayo 2003 CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACIÓN 06052003 45 ¿Están muertas la revolución de la información y la nueva economía? Brian Arthur dice que no 1. Brian Arthur: Vita………………………………. 3 2. Estamos condenados a vivir en dos economías..... 4 3. Is the Information Revolution Dead?…………… 7 4. Coming from Your Inner Self …………………... 23 5. His Economic Theories………………………….. 46 6. The Force of an Idea……………………………... 60 7. Brian Arthur: Selected Papers……. 65 7.1. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns and Lock-in by Historical Events," Economic Journal, 99, 106-131,1989. [18 páginas] 7.2. "Positive Feedbacks in the Economy," Scientific American, Feb. 1990. [12 páginas] 7.3. "Bounded Rationality and Inductive Behavior (the El Farol Problem), American Economic Review, 84,406-411, 1994. [11 páginas] 7.4. Preface to the book: Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1994. [9 páginas] 7.5. "Complexity in Economic and Financial Markets," Complexity, 1, 20-25, 1995. [14 páginas] 7.6. "Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,"Harvard Business Review, July-Aug 1996. [10 páginas] 2 7.7. "Process and Emergence in the Economy," introduction to the book The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, edited by Arthur, Durlauf, and Lane, Addison Wesley, Reading, Mass, 1997. [14 páginas] 7.8. "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II.," W. Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane, (Eds.), Proceedings Volume XXVII, Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Science of Complexity, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997. Review by Gerald Silverberg, Maastricht. [6 páginas] 7.9. W. Brian Arthur, John H. Holland, Blake LeBaron, Richard Palmer, and Paul Tayler, “Asset Pricing under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market”, December 1996 preprint. Final version published as pages 15--44 in W. Brian Arthur, Steven N. Durlauf, and David A. Lane, The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Vol. XXVII, Addison-Wesley, 1997. [29 páginas] This paper develops the Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market Model. 7.10. "Complexity and the Economy," Science, 2 April 1999, 284, 107-109. [5 páginas] 7.11. "The End of Certainty in Economics," Talk delivered at the conference Einstein Meets Magritte, Free University of Brussels, 1994. Appeared in Einstein Meets Magritte, D. Aerts, J. Broekaert, E. Mathijs, eds. 1999, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Holland. Reprinted in The Biology of Business, J.H. Clippinger, ed., 1999, Jossey-Bass Publishers.[6 páginas] 7.12. "Cognition: The Black Box of Economics," The Complexity Vision and the Teaching of Economics, David Colander, ed., Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton, Mass, 2000.[7 páginas] 7.13. "Myths and Realities of the High-Tech Economy," Talk given at Credit Suisse First Boston Thought Leader Forum, Sep 10, 2000. [5 páginas] 7.14. “Is the Information Revolution Dead? If history is a guide, it is not.”, Business 2.0, March 2002 Issue. [8 páginas] 2 3 Brian Arthur Vita Citibank Professor, Santa Fe Institute Schumpeter Prize in Economics 1990; Guggenheim Fellow, 1987-88; Fellow of the Econometric Society Dean and Virginia Morrison Professor of Population Studies and Economics, Stanford; Professor of Human Biology, Stanford, 1983-1996 Member, Board of Trustees, Santa Fe Institute. Director, Economics Research Program, 1988-90 and 1995-96, Santa Fe Institute Ph.D in Operations Research, Univ. Calif. Berkeley, 1973; MA in Mathematics, Univ. Mich., Ann Arbor,1969 Research Interests • Increasing Returns. I spent much of the 1980s developing a theoretical framework for economic allocation under increasing returns, in particular studying the dynamics of lock-in to one of many possible equilibria under the influence of small, random events. (Several of my papers are collected in my 1994 book Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. ) High technology operates under increasing returns, and to the degree modern economies are shifting toward high technology, the different economics of increasing returns alters the character of competition, business culture, and appropriate government policy in these economies • Cognition and Economics. Standard economics typically assumes economic agents who face well-defined problems, and formulate their actions via some form of optimizing, deductive logic. In actuality many situations in the economy are indeterminate--a prime example is the El Farol problem. I am interested in such "pockets of indeterminacy," and in formulating economic theory for how human agents "cognize" problems, and how they operate under indeterminacy • Technology and the Modern Economy. In the new high-tech era, the economy evolves as technology evolves. But how exactly does technology evolve? Is an economy that structures itself around high technologies different from a standard manufacturing economy? How does the information technology revolution play out in the modern economy? These are some of the questions I am currently thinking and writing about. Two Books The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, edited with Steven Durlauf and David Lane, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., Series in the Sciences of Complexity, 1997 Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1994 3 4 El ‘padre’ de la Nueva Economía, W. Brian Arthur: Estamos condenados a vivir en dos economías Entrevista Realizada por Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues en Los Angeles. 7 Feb.01 No es una figura conocida en los medios de emprendedores europeos de la cuarta ola. Como se sabe, el megáfono de la ‘nueva economía’ ha estado en manos de Kevin Kelly, el célebre editor de la revista "Wired", primera en levantar este estandarte. Kelly realizó con éxito la 'agit-prop' del concepto, cuyos ecos llegaron al Viejo Continente, pero el ideólogo es un reputado investigador del área de economía a quien descubrimos casi de incógnito en California. Sus 'papers', publicados en revistas tan diferentes como "Scientific American", "The Economic Journal" y "Harvard Business Review", dieron a la realidad emergente la argumentación teórica que le faltaba, a pesar del riesgo que W. Brian Arthur, el personaje en cuestión, corría al desafiar abiertamente a la ortodoxia economista de finales de los 80. Es una persona modesta. No reclama ser el ‘padre’ de la nueva economía, pero a él le debemos haber tenido la osadía de desafiar las teorías convencionales en los medios académicos sobre la dinámica del capitalismo, basadas en la ley de los rendimientos decrecientes de los factores y en la teoría del equilibrio. Las dudas de Marshall Los que estudiaron economía aprendieron que, a partir de cierto punto, un aumento en los factores no aumenta el resultado. Más de un lado no da más del otro. Las productividades marginal y media decrecen a partir de un punto de inflexión y los rendimientos pasan a ser decrecientes. Por otro lado, habría siempre un punto óptimo de equilibrio que significaría el uso más eficientes de los recursos disponibles en circunstancias dadas. "Debemos estas verdades a Alfred Marshall, pero el célebre economista inglés, ya en 1890, en sus Principios de Economía Política, manifestaba algunas dudas sobre algunas anomalías, pero no siguió el hilo sus preguntas, pues la realidad no lo exigía", nos dijo W. Brian Arthur, 53 años, que vive hoy en día en Palo Alto y tiene una oficina ‘prestada’ en Xerox PARC. La anomalía fue denominada como mecanismo de "feedback" positivo, o sea que, un resultado dado tiene un efecto de megáfono sobre los ‘imputs’, generando un círculo virtuoso. Más da más, y cada vez más. De allí nace una dinámica de rendimientos crecientes de los factores, al contrario de lo 4 5 que se observaba en el capitalismo industrial. Lo que Brian hizo, desde fines de los 70, confiesa, fue seguir meticulosamente los viejos interrogantes de Marshall y lo que, al principio, parecían ‘anomalías’, fue la realidad emergente "donde la teoría convencional no se aplica más". Subraya que se sentía, ya entonces, bien acompañado, pues, antes que él, aún en los 40 y 50, el Nobel sueco Gunnar Myrdal y el keynesiano Nicholas Kaldor habían identificado tal mecanismo. Las investigaciones más sistemáticas que hizo a lo largo de los años 80 produjeron varios ‘papers’ científicos que naturalmente sólo una elite leyó. Brian Arthur los compiló en un libro editado en 1994, con el título de Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (ISBN 0472064967). El argumento de base era éste: la nueva economía, asentada en el factor crítico conocimiento, ya no opera en base a las viejas leyes. El va a volcarse ahora nuevamente en la escritura; para el próximo año se espera su nuevo libro titulado, como no podía ser de otro modo, The New Economy. "La gente que está desde hace muchos años en el hi-tech o en Silicon Valley, percibe perfectamente lo que digo. Lo saben intuitivamente. El propio Bill Gates toma partido de eso. La Sun uso recientemente mis teorías en la estrategia de lanzamiento del ‘Java’, nos explica Brian, que fue profesor de economía en la Universidad de Stanford hasta 1996 y que ahora está en la dirección del Santa Fé Institute, en Nuevo México. El azar histórico El otro pilar derrumbado por Brian Arthur fue la sacrosanta teoría del equilibrio. La batalla no era fácil. Incluso una mente abierta a la "destrucción creativa" como Joseph Schumpeter consideraba que una hipótesis de múltiples equilibrios era, desde el punto de vista científico, una aberración. La consideraba, recuerda Brian, como "conduciendo a un caos fuera de cualquier control analítico". Ahora, la posibilidad de varios equilibrios está en la realidad, aunque no quede bajo el control de los dogmas de los economistas. No se puede predecir un equilibrio óptimo.
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