NONO 56 :: ISSUEDISSUED MAYJUNE 5 8 JUNE 2002

FSAU acknowledges the contribution of key partners FEWS NET, CARE, WFP, SC-UK, UNCU, UNDP

FSAU REPORTS AND ACTIVITIES HIGHLIGHTS ? The FSAU Rapid Assessment in : Gedo Region, particularly the north, is in an acute food security crisis, with food Awdal Region was led by FSAU Food intake for a large number of people well below any acceptable minimum. Even though Security Analyst Charles Rethman productive animals have reportedly returned from Middle and Lower Juba and and Bakol, these animals are providing no direct benefits because: and Livestock Officer Mahdi Kayad ? The animals have not yet been re-integrated with their families. (They are hanging back in between 22-27 May. Its objectives Southern Gedo awaiting the end of the fighting) were to strengthen baseline informa- ? Fighting has spread out of the urban centres into the rural hinterland. tion and obtain a rough update on the food security situation, as well ? Without trading activities and even with a livestock presence, households have no means of accessing food other than milk and trade mechanisms are essential for supporting the as to look at the Gu agricultural sea- poor who do not have the necessary livestock holdings. son in the mountainous area. (Ogo) ? There has been no food aid for more than a month. The last distributions will be depleted. For a copy of the four page report, There has been also been an influx of refugees from Gedo into both Mandera and Dolow, please contact alex.williams@fsau. Ethiopia. Of primary concern are about 4,500 people in Mandera who have not received shel- or.ke ter or assistance from the clan network and who are housed in a camp named BP1 (Border ? The FSAU—FEWS NET Market Post One), just inside Kenya, between Mandera and Belet Hawa. MSF Spain in Mandera are Enumerators Workshop in Somali- treating 60 children in their therapeutic feeding programme (TFP) and there are 1,000 land was held in Hargeisa on 23-24 children and 400 lactating women registered for a supplementary feeding programme (SFP). May led by Sidow Addou (FEWS NET) Refugees in Dolow are thought to number around 3,000-5,000 people, none of whom have and Thierry Antoine (FSAU). A similar received any assistance. (For more details see p. 2. and regional summaries p. 4.) workshop for market enumerators SANAAG AND SOOL REGIONS : These two regions continue to be highly food insecure, will be held in Baidoa in June. following scattered and sporadic Gu rains. The rains were enough to recharge water supplies but pasture remains depleted. FSAU still recommends targeted food aid assistance, therefore ? The FSAU/CARE joint report on for 2,000 households in Sool region and 3,000 in Sanaag region. (For more details, see Household Food Access and Use regional summaries, p. 3.) Survey in District Gedo Region FLOOD RISK IN SOUTHERN IS OVER : Heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian (18-26 March 2002) is available on Highlands and Southern Somalia during April caused river levels to rise, increasing concerns request. over possible flooding. However, below-average rains during May has lessened the flood risk ? A Central Somalia Food Security for the time being. (For more details, see regional summaries on p. 4.) Network workshop, sponsored by NOVIB, will be held in Jowhar, Middle LINKS BETWEEN HIV/AIDS AND Highlights from the FSAU Shabelle, between 8-12 June. FOOD SECURITY ‘Nutrition Update’

Currently there are very few statistics avail- The crisis for the population of Gedo GU 2002 CROP ESTABLISHMENT able for the number of people infected with Region worsens by the hour. Humanitar- the HIIV/AIDS virus in Somalia. However, sta- ian organisations emphasise the need for The Gu cropping season is still promising tistics in surrounding countries are of grave urgent humanitarian access to deliver the in the main sorghum producing zones of Bay concern. In 1999, four East African countries vital food-aid on which the population is (well above average rains were received in reported prevalence levels above 10%; now dependant. Approximately 200,000 April followed by sufficient rains in May). On neighboring Ethiopia has one of the largest people inside the region have been with- the other hand, the crop situation is uncertain populations living with HIV/AIDS in the world. out their main source of food for over one in most rain-fed areas of Bakol and Hiran While the pandemic was primarily perceived month with fighting and landmines pre- (poor rains in May). Cultivated land was close as a health crisis in its early years, linkages venting deliveries. to normal in southern Gedo where crops were are now widely acknowledged between HIV/ Refugees in Mandera, Kenya, esti- well established. Planting of both rain-fed and AIDS and a broad range of other issues includ- mated to number up to 15,000, have not irrigated crops was hampered by insecurity in ing food security. HIV/AIDS undermines agri- received food aid to date. In an effort to northern Gedo (cropped land has been far cultural systems and affects the nutritional save lives among the most vulnerable, below normal). June’s rainfall will be crucial in situation and food security of rural families. As some selective feeding programmes are most rain-fed areas in order to achieve good adults fall ill and die, families face declining in place in Luuq, Belet Hawa and in Man- yields. Due to heavy rains received in April, productivity as well as loss of knowledge about dera, Kenya. crops had to be replanted in parts of Middle indigenous farming methods and loss of as- Malnutrition , death and displacement and Lower Juba. Good prospects are foreseen sets. FAO has estimated that in the 25 most- due to insecurity inside northern Gedo for irrigated maize in Middle and Lower affected African countries, AIDS could kill 16 can now be assumed to be critical. Shabelle. The FSAU Gu 2002 crop establish- million agricultural workers within the next 20 For more details, see the FSAU ment field survey (27/05 -08/06) has re- years. Contact FEWS NET ([email protected]) monthly publication ‘Nutrition Update’, or cently concluded in southern Somalia. Final for the Somalia presentation on this subject at contact [email protected] results will be available in the coming weeks. the June 11th SACB Food Security Meeting.

The FSAU is funded by the EC and implemented by FAO. The FSAU Nutrition component is funded by USAID. Further information is available through PO Box 1230, Narobi, Tel: (254-2) 3741299, 3745734, While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information 3748297, Fax: 3740598, E-mail: [email protected], or look at www.unsomalia.org under available, neither FSAU, FEWS Net or any of their supporters or partners endorse the ‘FSAU’ webpage. any figure or political boundary as definitive. FSAU Monthly Food Security Report for June 2002

THE GEDO REFUGEES AND THEIR SITUATION MARKET PRICES AND TRENDS

GEDO REFUGEES IN MANDERA, KENYA Evolution of Somaliland Shilling Exchange Rate against US Dollar Because many cereal in Hargeisa Market, from Jan-00 to May-02 In the second week of May, up to 10,000 additional people commodities are im- 8,000 moved across the border into Mandera (Kenya) as a result of insecu- ported into the North- 7,000 rity in Belet Hawa.(Somalia) A previous influx of some 6,000 6,000 West, the evolution of the refugees from Belet Hawa in mid-April was mostly absorbed into the 5,000 Somaliland shilling 4,000 Mandera Somali community with whom they are linked by marriage, against the US Dollar 3,000 business and other activities. However, the second influx from Belet plays a major role in the 2,000 1,000 Hawa town has remained in a location on the outskirts of Mandera Somaliland Shilling per Dollar local economy, affecting known as BP1 (Border Post 1) a few hundred metres inside Kenya. 0 people’s purchasing Within a few days and following some military developments in Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 power. The graph on the Source: FSAU & FEWS NET Somalia, many of the refugees in BP1 decided to return to Somalia. right shows that the However, about 4,500 refugees remained in BP1. Reports suggest Somaliland shilling lost 45% of its value against the dollar, between that many of the refugees at BP1 are formerly internally displaced Jan 2000-May 2002. What is striking, though, is that the shilling people from within Somalia who had been trying to make a living in normally loses value faster than the price increases in imported Belet Hawa and who have no ties with the Mandera community. Even commodities, effectively making them cheaper. before these former IDP’S arrived in Mandera, their nutritional status One way of analysing purchasing power is to look at terms of trade, is likely to have been extremely poor. in this case the daily As the refugee crisis evolved at the beginning of May, WFP air- Comparison of Terms of Trde(Daily Wages/Rice) in Hargeisa Market, Jan-02- May-02 labour wage against lifted 7.5 MT of food to Mandera for distribution at BP1. However, the cereal price. The insecurity at the camp prevented any distribution. WFP then trucked 14 graph shows a 100 MT of food to Mandera for further general food distributions but 12 steady decline, indi- they have been unable to deliver to the refugees due to the insecu- 10 cating that although rity. WFP has donated half a ton of Corn Soya Blend (highly nutritious 8 the poor can still porridge) to the MSF TFC. UNHCR is coordinating a plan with other 6 purchase their food agencies and NGO’s to open a SFC to provide food relief to those in 4 needs, they will not need. An alternative solution which involves the transfer of refugees 2

Daily Wages per kilogram of Rice be able to afford to Dadaab (approx. 80 km to the west) has not happened, due to 0 other essential bureaucratic difficulties. UNHCR has made necessary arrangements Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Source: FSAU & FEWS NET goods and services. but is still waiting for clearance from the Kenyan government to pro- ceed. The Kenyan government rejected the transfer of refugees to SEASONAL RAINS INSTIGATE SOME RECOVERY IN NE AND NW another location in Mandera, further away from the border and where security could be guaranteed. Seasonal Gu rains have been moderate and unevenly distrib- GEDO REFUGEES IN DOLOW, ETHIOPIA uted but most berkads and balleys are replenished and pasture in Around the third week of May, some 3,000-5,000 refugees moved parts of the NE and NW have recovered. In Awdal, the coastal and into Dolow Ethiopia. It is thought many, originating from the Luuq sub-coastal belt has made a good recovery but East Sanaag and area were intending to go to the proposed Kenyan refugee camp in Sool are still suffering from depleted pasture and the Hawd of Har- Dadaab but were not allowed to proceed through the Kenyan border geisa, received only one day’s rain, pushing livestock into Ethiopia. post. No food, shelter or medicine has currently reached these refu- At this time of year, animals are being fattened up, away from urban gees, although SC-US has said it is willing to provide emergency as- centres and supply to markets has decreased. Key markets demon- sistance. Subsequently the Ethiopians shut their border with Somalia strate that in dollar terms, prices fetched for livestock were slightly stopping any further influx of refugees. The FSAU field monitor in the higher this May than last May and are even close to when the import region also reports that some Gedo IDP’S have moved in to Bay and ban was imposed in Sept 2000. At this time of year, people con- Bakol to flee the insecurity. (See also p. 3. Pipeline and Food Aid sume a lot of milk and the demand is helping keep the pastoralist Distributions and P. 4. Gedo Highlights) economy alive. FSAU staff report that remittance to pastoralists, particularly around urban areas, from Somali Diaspora has in- REVIEW OF GU RAINFALL AND VEGETATION creased, as has assistance from relatives within the country. Export Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 of cattle continues to Yemen and camels to Egypt. The seasonal closure of Bossasso and Indian Ocean seaports will begin from July to September due to rough seas. Why are prices good when the live- stock import ban has caused the loss of major market outlets? Ini- tial analysis, (to be further refined in coming months) suggests that pastoralists in the NE and NW have adjusted to the livestock ban by reducing animal sales, thus limiting supply. To get their required incomes, they have shifted over to milk sales. A milk marketing sys- tem has developed since the start of the livestock import ban in Sept 2000. There is a catch, however, more milk sales stem from more animal reproduction and greater requirements of pasture and water. This has put greater strain on an already fragile environment, accentuating the risk and impact of future droughts. Rainfall Performance, Comparative Rainfall Vegetation Condition LIVESTOCK EXPORT TABLE March-May, 2002 Actual – Average (Mar-May) May 21-31, 2002 BOSSASSO * February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002

CAMEL 1020 385 1183 744 The Gu rainfall season, March—May 2002, produced mixed CATTLE 1738 3977 4250 3470 results. Figure 1 shows the cumulative rainfall for the season where SHOATS 199840 102948 39780 85310 heavy rains were mainly confined to Southern Somalia. Figure 2 TOTAL 202,598 107310 45213 89,524

comparing actual (or current) to average rainfall shows that only BERBERA ** February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002

parts of Middle and Lower Juba, S. Gedo and Bay had above aver- CAMEL 1922 1018 2020 647 age rains. The rest of the country had near normal to below normal CATTLE 3466 2390 854 N/A rainfall. In areas where there was a rainfall deficit, moisture stress has hampered crop development. However, Figure 3 shows that SHOATS 59349 22932 6777 15034 vegetation has responded to the seasonal rains in most parts of TOTAL 64,739 26340 9651 15681 Southern Somalia. * Source : UNCTAD * * Source : Berbera Port Authority 2 FSAU Monthly Food Security Report for June 2002

FARMERS ACCESS SEED IN BAKOL REGION PRIOR TO THE GU PIPELINE AND FOOD AID PLANTING SEASON DISTRIBUTIONS In Bakol Region, 15,000 farming families relied on statistics and information provided on Pipeline: WFP has pre-positioned across four districts (Huddur, Rabdure, Tayeglow the ground regarding the severity of the drought approx. 657 MT in Mandera, ready for and El Berde) were able to access a total of and the number of people affected. Beneficiar- distribution in Gedo region, 287.5 MT of sorghum and 47.5 MT of cowpeas ies were selected with the collaboration of village Garbahare, and in good time for the onset of the Gu rains follow- elders and local district authorities. During com- districts, as soon as security situation ing the trial of seed voucher/seed fair scheme by munity mobilization activities community elders, allows. CARE has about 2800 MT of FAO in partnership with InterSOS. Since the Deyr local authorities, village committees, traders, food en route to El Waq for distribution harvest was good in most parts of southern So- beneficiaries were informed of the project, the and when security situation allows, malia, it was expected that the requirements for approach, what was expected of each party, some of this food will be moved up to external assistance for seeds would be limited. dates of seed fairs, how the fairs would be organ- Belet Hawa, Luuq, Dolow districts. In However, after an initial assessment in seed ized etc. Seed fairs were conducted with the May, WFP distributed 260 MT in the needs and availability in Bakol Region, it was beneficiaries receiving seed in exchange for NW to a approx. 3,874 recipients, of evident that the Deyr harvest was below average vouchers from local traders. which 152 MT went to social support in most parts and FAO in partnership with Inter- Monitoring is continuing through focus group and 108 MT as food for work. In Bay SOS planned to trial a seed voucher scheme for discussions, structured interviews and farm visits and Bakol region, a total of 675 MT the distribution of seeds (sorghum and cow- to gain an understanding of what happened to was distributed to 8,280 recipients, of peas). The system offers key advantages over the seed, crop establishment and harvest, and which 184 MT went to the maternal- traditional seed distribution methods in that ongoing problems being experienced by the farm- child health centers (MCH) and 491 beneficiaries are able to access local seed varie- ers. MT went to food for work. In ties and local seed traders are supported which For more information contact Alison Maccoll : Mogadishu, a total of 47 MT was in turn supports the local economy. Tel +254 2 725128, email amaccoll@faonairobi. distributed to 739 recipients in the TB Identification and targeting of vulnerable or.ke or Tiziana Greco Tel +254 2 448185, and MCH centers. CARE distributed farm families was difficult and the project staff email [email protected] 40 MT to Middle Shabelle. REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY HIGHLIGHTS AS REPORTED BY FSAU FIELD MONTIORS >> P.3 Every month, the 22 FSAU Field Monitors provide in depth information on food security indicators in their areas. If you would like to ob- tain a copy of their district reports - please contact [email protected]. The Regional highlights are a summary of this field informa- NORTH WEST & AWDAL SANAG & TOGHDEER SOUTH NUGAL & NORTH Rains have been somewhat scattered and Generally, food security in these two regions MUDUG sporadic across these two regions, delaying ranges from normal to far below normal. Gu Livestock in the hawd of Mudug are farming activities until the 2nd dekad of rains in Sanag have been very poor, with few recovering as pastured has been renewed May, especially on the Hargeysa/Gebiley scattered showers in April and nothing in by recent rains. Deeh and Addun areas side. Better rains fell in Region 5 of Ethio- May. Water is available for the time being but have received only light showers following a pia, attracting animals from the Hawd and pasture is well below normal, especially in the particularly harsh and difficult dry season. tractors from the agro-pastoral zone. Water Hadeed Plain and the Gebi valley. There is Livestock body condition remains weak and in most reservoirs has been replenished still a need for food aid in this area (3,000 not adequate for marketing. Food prices and boreholes at the most strategic sites households) because animal reproduction are increasing due to the expected closure are functioning; however, many newly dug rates are down (50% of normal), hampering of the small ports from the beginning of July wells (including those at Lughaye and recovery of milk production and therefore due to rough seas. The United Arab Fardho Lago Xidh) are either dry or the wa- incomes,, while poorer households have sold Emirates is refusing to accept chilled meat ter is highly saline. Pasture, although recov- productive assets to get through the jilaal from the Galkacyo slaughterhouse unless it ering slowly, is adequate and livestock are period. A further adverse Deyr season will has appropriate certification. Unless this is in good condition, except for the agro- compound current difficulties and will lead to resolved swiftly it could affect up to 200 pastoral area of Hargeysa and Gebiley, as a critical situation in the area. Terms of trade: jobs and cause an increase in prices. well as the Hawd of Hargeysa. Prices for one export quality goat fetches 60 kg sor- livestock are high, as are food prices. In ghum or maize; the difficulty for most families Zeylac, prices are considerably higher, due being the availability of good livestock. to border closure with Djibouti; causing food access problems for the local popula- tion BARI REGION NORTH NUGAL & SOUTH BARI Most of the region received adequate rain- The Gu rains in this area have been poor fall, which regenerated pasture and filled this year. The areas of eastern Nugal and SOOL (and the Buhoodle Hawd) berkads and balleys, with the exception of parts of Eyl district received nothing while Near the end of the season, rainfall in most Dharjaale and Kalabayr villages. Pasture that of the Hawd and Iyah was below nor- of this area is inadequate, in terms of inten- and animal condition have consequently mal. The result is that many important ber- sity and coverage, the most affected districts improved, although smaller livestock are kads have not filled. Conversely, the Nugal being Xudun, Taleh and Ainabo. This has pre- lagging somewhat. Milk production, espe- valley received heavy flash floods in April, vented recovery and poor pastoralists are still cially that of camels, is hampered by a low which have brought limited benefits and in need of assistance, for which targeted food calving rate. Terms of trade for pastoralists which caused considerable destruction. aid to approximately 2,000 households is are good, although cereals prices have Nevertheless, animals are recovering from recommended. Rains been normal in the risen along with those of livestock. This has the Jilaal season and are in good condition Hawd of Sool Region and in Buhoodle, how- impacted on the poorest, who depend on although water shortages later on in Hagay ever. Camel calving rates have dropped sig- labour and firewood/collection activities fro are expected. Terms of trade are lower than nificantly, affecting milk production and income. There has been a seasonal migra- last month but are still quite good for pas- household income, but goats and cattle are tion from Bosasso to rural areas to escape toral groups. Security is reported to have only marginally down. Prices for livestock are the hot weather. With the seasonal closure improved and construction activities (labour good as pastoralists hold back on sales. of Bosasso port looming, the number of opportunities for the poor) are said to be vessels calling in is in decline. starting again after a long interruption.

3 FSAU Monthly Food Security Report for June 2002

>> P.4 REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY HIGHLIGHTS AS REPORTED BY FSAU FIELD MONTIORS

BAY GEDO JUBA VALLEY There has been evenly distributed rainfall of Gedo Region, particularly the north, is in an Rainfall of equal distribution and inten- good intensity, which has continued to im- acute food security crisis, with a large num- sity fell over most of the region. This has prove crop condition and replenish water ber of people’s food intake well below any improved livestock condition and produc- sources and pasture. (total rainfall for April/ acceptable minimum. This is despite the fact tion. However, cereal supply in markets is May is about 300mm which is slightly above that productive animals have reportedly re- low, and this combined with low household average) Agricultural job opportunities are turned from Middle and Lower Juba and cereal stocks has caused the price of staple available creating income for the poor agro- Ethiopia and Bakol. (see highlights on p.1 for food to rise. Poor and vulnerable house- pastoral wealth groups. Some insect infesta- further explanation.) The Gedo population holds among agro-pastoralists are strug- tion has been observed on sorghum and would be in urgent need of food relief even gling to purchase food. (Above 5,000 Ssh/ maize crops. Sorghum prices were decreas- without the presence of the current conflict. kg for maize in the most vulnerable areas of ing at the end of May (700Ssh/kg as com- This is because three years of drought has Afmadow and Hagar) However, the poor are pared to 1,100 Ssh/kg at the end of May eroded livelihoods, primarily by reducing in- earning some income from farming activi- 2001). Livestock are making a recovery from come earned from milk and livestock sales, ties. Livestock have been moved away from the long Jilaal season, as replenished pasture casual labour opportunities and collection of urban areas for better grazing creating a and water availability is good. Livestock pro- bush products and self-employment activi- milk shortage among urban and agro- duction (milk and meat) has improved. Terms ties. The drought also caused the outright pastoral populations. Camel and cattle milk of trade are very good for livestock sellers failure of the few crops that were produced in has been brought in to markets from fur- above 8 bags of sorghum per local goat in the region. The latest fighting and insecurity ther away but is sold at a high price. Hagar, Baidoa. has further stressed this critical situation by Julib, Jamame, Salagle and Badhadhe have disrupting trade and exchange, by increasing BAKOL been hit by a seed shortage. the IDP caseload, and by preventing people Only small quantities of localised rains from taking advantage of the modest rains were received during this month compared COWPEA BELT/GALGADUD through access to their herds of animals and to close to average rains in April. Poor May In Cowpea, during May, the Gu rains have through some agriculture. Prior to the out- rainfall has affected crop establishment, been scattered and of moderate intensity. break of conflict, households were depend- renewal of pasture and agricultural opportu- However, most water catchments are replen- ent on food aid for up to half of their daily nities. In some districts crops have not even ished. In some inland areas, however, the needs and as no distributions have taken price of a drum of water remains high (Ssh place within Gedo since the end of March and reached establishment, despite the fact early April, food intake, especially women that germination was good at the beginning 10,000-15,000 for 200 litres). Livestock pro- and children is below any acceptable mini- of the season. (Exceptions are Madayto and duction has improved but not in the districts mum. The road from Baidoa/Mogadishu has south of Wajid). The maize crop has already where rainfall was poor. Crop establishment been closed, affecting the price of both local suffered from moisture stress particularly in and farming activities are usual for this time and imported goods which have increased. Huddur and Tieglow district. Livestock con- of year. In Galgadud the overall food security Following the good start to the Gu rainy sea- dition has not fully recovered in some areas situation is normal due to increase milk sup- son in April, rainfall in May has been ex- and there has been some internal livestock ply and good cereal availability in markets. tremely disappointing. The Juba and Dawa movement in search of better pasture. Water availability has improved for humans river levels have decreased and will lessen Camel milk price is high (4,000 Ssh/litre) and livestock and livestock production has irrigation opportunities. The crops in South as grazing is poor close near towns. How- increased significantly. Gedo are well established due to good rains ever, shallow wells and water catchments in April. However, in northern districts the are replenished. The price of sorghum is MIDDLE SHABELLE area planted has been greatly reduced due to much higher than Baidoa although it With exception of parts of Jowhar district, no insecurity. Livestock condition in the region is slightly decreased in May. This is due to a rainfall was received throughout the region improving due to April rains. good supply of cereals from markets in during this month. Water availability for hu- neighbouring Bay region whose crop estab- HIRAN man and livestock is however normal in po- lishment is promising, encouraging old tential rangelands and agro-pastoral setting. Gu rains stopped at the beginning of May but stocks to be sold off. Terms of trade are Pasture and browsing condition also im- light showers did begin to fall again in the third favourable to livestock owners (3 sorghum proved in the traditional grazing areas dekad. The Shabelle river level dropped consid- bags for one quality goat in Huddur). prompting herders to move away from river- erably (compared to the beginning of May) alle- ine areas to avoid Tse Tse fly-related livestock viating flood threats in the area. Water avail- LOWER SHABELLE diseases. Agricultural activity especially weed- ability for people and livestock remain normal. Rain commenced again in the third dekad ing is under way providing income opportuni- Livestock production (milk and meat) has im- of May, after twenty dry days, creating relief ties for poorer households. Signs of moisture proved. In pastoral areas, grazing and browsing in the farming community. All water catch- stress have been observed in most farms. are good but riverine and agro-pastoral areas ments are full from the April rains. The Sha- The river level has dropped earlier than usual, continue to feel the affect of limited rain and belle river level dropped (compared to the making all sorts of gravity irrigation impossi- pasture has already dried out. There has been start of the month) alleviating flood threats ble. The only form of feasible supplementary some small-scale livestock movement towards in the region. The May rains have improved irrigation is by using pump that will eventually Middle/Lower Shabelle in search of pasture pasture conditions, which were in depletion increase the cost of production for better off which is not normal for the time of the year. The due to over grazing. Livestock condition is and middle wealth groups. High fuel price area planted was reduced due to poor irrigation normal; milk production is increasing and may also hamper availability of sufficient irri- facilities. Some established crops have suf- prices are starting to fall. Rains have also gation for small farmers. Cereal stocks at fered pest infestation. Irrigated farmers prefer improved crop condition in the rain-fed as household level are healthy for all wealth cash crops to cereals and insect spray used on well as in the irrigated areas. The much- groups and availability of staple food is nor- crops has badly damaged the honey industry needed rain has eased the insect pest mal though relatively highly priced compared along the river, which is an important source of problem and irrigation competition. The to last month. For instance maize and sor- income for poorer riverine households. Cereal overall food security situation in the region ghum retail price increased by 14% and 16% prices have remained steady over the last two is fairly normal due to the availability of ag- respectively. This is due to the high tax im- months and supply in markets is good. Crop ricultural jobs. (especially in the banana posed by the local authorities which forced establishment in the Shabelle region of Ethio- industry.) The price of cereal has increased many households to withhold their cereals pia has been poor due to pest infestation and during the May, especially maize (12%) from the market and hence increased this could affect market supplies in the region, compared to last month while milk prices causing cereal prices to rise. have decreased. demand. 4