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The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (RC-2334)

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The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (RC-2334) The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (RC-2334) Report to the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program Cover image: Wave-driven runup and flooding of Roi-Namur Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, on 3 March 2014. The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (RC-2334) By Curt D. Storlazzi, Stephen Gingerich, Peter Swarzenski, Olivia Cheriton, Clifford Voss, Ferdinand Oberle, Joshua Logan, Kurt Rosenberger, Theresa Fregoso, Sara Rosa, Adam Johnson, and Li Erikson (U.S. Geological Survey) Don Field, Greg Piniak, Amit Malhotra, and Mark Finkbeiner (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Ap van Dongeran, Ellen Quataert, Arnold van Rooijen, Edwin Elias, and Mattijs Gawehn (Deltares) Annamalai Hariharasubramanian, Matthew Widlansky, Jan Hafner, and Chunxi Zhang (University of Hawaii) Report to the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program Suggested citation: Storlazzi, C.D., et al., 2017, The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Department of Defense Installations on Atolls in the Pacific Ocean (RC-2334): U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report for the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, 121 p. Contents 1 Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Project Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Technical Approach ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Benefits .................................................................................................................................................. 3 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Project Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Background ............................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3 Study Area ............................................................................................................................................. 6 3 Methods and Results .................................................................................................................................. 11 3.1 Topographic and Bathymetric Data ...................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Topographic Data Acquisition ........................................................................................................ 11 3.1.1.1 Geodetic control ...................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1.2 Water level datums ................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.1.3 Topographic GPS surveys ...................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1.4 Terrestrial lidar scanning (TLS) ............................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 Bathymetric Data Acquisition ......................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2.1 Satellite data ........................................................................................................................... 17 3.1.2.2 Bathymetric field data acquisition ............................................................................................ 18 3.1.2.3 Image preprocessing .............................................................................................................. 20 3.1.2.4 Depth determination ................................................................................................................ 21 3.1.3 Bathymetric Data Accuracy Assessment ....................................................................................... 22 iii 3.1.4 Topographic and Bathymetric (“topobathy”) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Creation ................... 27 3.1.4.1 Topographic and bathymetric (“topobathy”) digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 29 3.2 Benthic Habitat Mapping ...................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 Benthic Habitat Classification and Hydrodynamic Friction ............................................................. 32 3.3 Terrestrial Habitat Mapping .................................................................................................................. 38 3.4 Future Oceanographic Modeling .......................................................................................................... 39 3.5 Oceanographic Data Acquisition .......................................................................................................... 41 3.6 Wave-driven Flood Modeling ................................................................................................................ 48 3.6.1 XBeach model description and options ......................................................................................... 49 3.6.2 XBeach One-Dimensional (1D) Hydrodynamic Modeling .............................................................. 51 3.6.2.1 XBeach 1D model calibration and validation ........................................................................... 52 3.6.2.2 XBeach 1D model insights into important hydrodynamic and geomorphic properties ............. 55 3.6.3 XBeach Two-Dimensional (2D) Hydrodynamic and Wave-driven Flood Modeling ........................ 57 3.6.3.1 XBeach 2D model calibration and validation ........................................................................... 59 3.6.3.2 XBeach 2D modeling results ................................................................................................... 62 3.7 Future Meteorologic Modeling .............................................................................................................. 63 3.7.1 Global Climate Model Selection ..................................................................................................... 63 3.7.2 Storm Characteristics .................................................................................................................... 69 3.8 Groundwater Data Acquisition .............................................................................................................. 71 3.8.1 Groundwater Physical and Chemical Properties ........................................................................... 71 3.8.2 Electrical Resistivity ....................................................................................................................... 72 3.8.3 Submarine Groundwater Discharge .............................................................................................. 72 3.8.4 Groundwater Tidal Lag and Efficiency ........................................................................................... 73 iv 3.8.5 Tidal Oscillation Effect on Groundwater ........................................................................................ 74 3.8.6 Submarine Groundwater Discharge and Groundwater Geochemistry ........................................... 76 3.8.7 Large Rain Event Impact on Groundwater .................................................................................... 76 3.8.8 March 2014 Overwash Event’s Impact on Groundwater ............................................................... 77 3.8.9 Long-term Precipitation Impact on Groundwater ........................................................................... 78 3.8.10 Sea-level Change Impact on Groundwater .................................................................................. 79 3.9 Groundwater Modeling ......................................................................................................................... 80 3.9.1 Hydrogeologic Setting and SUTRA Groundwater Model ............................................................... 81 3.9.1.1 Roi-Namur Island .................................................................................................................... 81 3.9.1.2 The 2008 seawater flooding event and its impact on the freshwater supply ........................... 83 3.9.1.3 SUTRA model of Roi groundwater .......................................................................................... 85 3.9.2 SUTRA Simulation of the 2008 Seawater Overwash and Flooding Event ..................................... 86 3.9.2.1 Initial salinization ....................................................................................................................
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