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Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018

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Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018 Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018 The following idea snapshots have been provided by the respective instructors or compiled by MOI Global using information provided by the instructors. For the full investment theses, please review the in-depth slide presentations and replay the hour-long conference sessions. The following is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. TASLIM AHMED, MANAGING PARTNER, EXIMUS PARTNERS CREDIT SUISSE GROUP (Swiss: CSGN) is a financial services company. Segments include Swiss Universal Bank, International Wealth Management, Asia Pacific, Global Markets, Investment Banking and Capital Markets, Strategic Resolution Unit, and Corporate Center. With a market cap of CHF 39 billion (1 CHF ~ 1 USD), the bank’s income is weighed down by the winddown of legacy assets (pre- and post-2008), with related losses of CHF 1.85 billion in FY2017. The company is experiencing tailwinds in the form of growth in Asia, with the wealth management division growing profits by 76% in 2016 and 63% in 2017 (most recently at CHF 820 million). The main value driver is the management team led by CEO Tidjane Thiam, formerly of Prudential Management, who has done an excellent job in both companies, setting concrete targets and in virtually all cases exceeding them. Taslim sees ~50% upside in the stock as earnings increase after retirement of expensive subordinate debt (~9% interest rate) in October should raise income by CHF 300 million, and reduced losses in the strategic resolution unit increase earnings by CHF 450 million. These “extra earnings” are virtually assured. LUIS GARCÍA ALVAREZ, EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MAPFRE AM FERROVIAL (Spain: FER) is a multinational infrastructure, services and construction group headquartered in Madrid, Spain. It owns significant stakes in Canada’s 407 ETR toll road (43% equity) and London Heathrow airport (25% equity), plus four “managed lane” projects in the United States (of which two are currently operational). During recent quarters, adverse market conditions in the Services activities in the UK and a lower contribution from projects in Construction, together with a couple of loss-making projects, have compressed operating margins on the contracting side. However, Luis considers this a case in which investors are simply not focused on the right issues and misunderstand the relative weight of each division in the company’s valuation. The most important asset in terms of equity value, the Canadian 407 ETR toll road (close to 50% of estimated intrinsic value for Ferrovial), has continued to report solid results. The exceptional terms of this concession are the source of the company’s competitive advantage in building and operating high complexity toll roads, which constitute an efficient solution for mobility problems in congested western urban cities. moiglobal.com - CONFIDENTIAL | 1 Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018 HENRIK ANDERSSON, PARTNER AND FUND MANAGER, DIDNER & GERGE BUNZL (London: BNZL) is a family company in disguise. It has set a high bar in how a corporation slowly but steadily, with the highest ethical standards, year in and year out keeps expanding its business one well-served customer at a time. It is a grand example of what is today known as a “compounding machine”. At the face of it, Bunzl is a distributor of goods typically not for resale; to food stores, restaurants, large corporations, health care operations – the list goes on. It is the brooms to clean the stores, the kitchen disposables, the napkins in conference rooms, the first aid kits in offices, and the protection gloves in factories. But as with all great business models, Bunzl provides something more in its daily operations. By managing customers’ working capital, solving complex logistics with a 98% fulfillment rate, being just-in-time, providing consultancy around procurement and providing push-through cost savings, Bunzl is one of these businesses that provides essential services that aids an entire operation but at a very small cost. It is like an iceberg – what you see above the water (i.e. Bunzl´s fee/margin) is a fraction of its true impact. The company is governed by outstanding people, in a strong corporate culture with lots of responsibility and decentralization –words such as modest, hard-working, long-term, steadfast come to mind. GAUTAM BAID, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SUMMIT GLOBAL INVESTMENTS HESTER BIOSCIENCES (NSE: HESTERBIO, BOM: 524669) is India’s second largest domestic poultry vaccine player in India with a market share of ~35%. In the last five years, the company has diversified its portfolio from a predominantly domestic poultry vaccine to a complete chain of veterinary vaccines, medicines and healthcare segments. Hester is expected to sharply ramp up operations at its Nepal plant which will be primarily dedicated to developing PPR vaccines for exports. Global agencies Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the World Organization for Animal health (OIE) have earmarked US$7.2 billion (~US$500 million annually) for the eradication of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease, globally by 2030. In addition to PPR vaccine, Hester has also developed Brucella cattle vaccine. As per the management, the export opportunity for Brucella vaccine is likely to be even higher than the PPR vaccine. Looking at the size of the opportunity in PPR and Brucella vaccines, even gaining marginal market share could provide very strong revenue traction for Hester. Its high net profit margins of ~24% are expected to further improve going ahead driven by operating leverage (optimum utilization of Nepal plant which is currently reporting a loss) and better realization in PPR vaccines by drawing on its “untapped” pricing power since Hester enjoys a significant low-cost advantage among its global peers for these vaccines. Businesses with such a long runway ahead for growth and a high degree of predictability enjoy premium valuations for a very long time and are compounding machines. Given Hester’s significant pricing differential for PPR vaccines in the global market, there is a high probability of Hester winning many of the upcoming PPR tenders. Ascribing a “price target” to such a business would not be meaningful as the stock price is expected to keep factoring in the tender win announcements till 2030. Thus, the stock returns are expected to be derived in an irregular and lumpy manner over the next many years. And for patient moiglobal.com - CONFIDENTIAL | 2 Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018 investors, it is the cumulative total returns over the long-term which ultimately matter. As Buffett said – “Charlie (Munger) and I would much rather earn a lumpy 15 percent over time than a smooth 12 percent.” DANIEL BALDINI, MANAGING PARTNER, OBERON ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLIDAYCHECK GROUP (Germany: HOC) is the leading German hotel review site and a major online packaged holiday booking platform serving Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. At ~1.1x revenue, the company is valued as a slow-growth business that will never achieve meaningful profitability. The market is missing the following: HoldayCheck’s review platform gives it a sustainable competitive advantage in the form of lower customer acquisition costs. Growth is accelerating as changes to the business take hold, the German travel market improves, and the shift to online booking accelerates. Opportunities for additional improvements to the business are significant, further supporting growth and profitability. The online segment of the German packaged holiday market accounts for only one-third of bookings, presenting a long runway of growth. The company’s hotel review database is a valuable asset and makes the company an attractive acquisition candidate. BOGUMIL BARANOWSKI, CO-FOUNDER AND PARTNER, SICART ASSOCIATES PROCTER & GAMBLE (NYSE: PG) is a prime example of a lasting, wide-moat business. It is one of the world’s largest consumer and home product companies in the world. It has a strong portfolio of global brands available in 180 countries (sales are 2/3 developed markets, 1/3 developing). PG is a quality, stable, and growing business with high margins and returns, a strong balance sheet, and a 62-year history of dividend increases. PG recently traded at 17x P/E, 12x EV/EBITDA, and a dividend yield of 3.8%. Bogumil likes the shares because they are down, cheap, and out-of-favor, while the company is possibly the most focused it has been in recent history. After a major restructuring PG has fewer brands, a leaner supply chain, and improved marketing. Management sees further cost savings going forward and meaningful return of capital. Activist investor Nelson Peltz took a seat on the board, which may further accelerate change. The stock is out-of-favor due to weaker organic sales growth, margin pressures due to elevated costs, and concerns about innovation. PG is well-positioned to get back on track and deliver respectable results over the next five years. DAVID BARR AND FELIX NARHI, PORTFOLIO MANAGERS, PENDERFUND CAPITAL MIDDLEBY (Nasdaq: MIDD): Since taking the helm in 2001, CEO Selim Bassoul and his management team have transformed the company from a small “me too” food equipment maker into one of the world’s largest commercial food equipment makers, with three synergistic platforms serving the restaurant industry, large commercial bakeries and meat producers, and consumers in search of premium kitchen appliances. The food equipment industry benefits from a number of structural shifts taking place at the consumer and moiglobal.com - CONFIDENTIAL | 3 Highlights from Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2018 restaurant operator level. In addition to secular tailwinds, Middleby has an extraordinary track record outpacing the growth of the market through disruptive innovation and adding value via its proven M&A framework. David and Felix believe management’s enviable value creation algorithm remains intact. Proven compounders rarely trade at a discount to the market, but sporadic bumps in the road can push down stocks to compelling valuation levels.
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