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Strategy Presentation by Michael Rowan and Luis Fleischman About Dr Thought Leaders Round Table – SAT. 17 May – FIU – Miami Strategy Presentation by Michael Rowan and Luis Fleischman About Dr. Luis Fleischman • Two decades of Middle East and national security expertise • Senior advisor for the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy (Washington) • Co-editor with Nancy Menges of The Americas Report • Author of “Latin America in the Post Chavez Era: The Threat to U.S Security”, 2013 • Columnist and commentator for radio & TV • Adjunct professor of Sociology and Political Science at Florida Atlantic University Honors College • M. A. and Ph.D. in Sociology from the New School for Social Research in New York City • B.A degree in Political Science and Labor Studies from Tel Aviv University, Israel About Michael Rowan • Columnist for El Universal - 1996 to present • Columnist for Veneconomia - 1999 to present • Author, Getting Over Chavez & Poverty - 2006 (Libros El Nacional) • Co-Author, The Threat Closer to Home - 2009 (Free Press) • Presidential campaign strategist in Venezuela: 1993 (Claudio Fermin) and 2006 (Manuel Rosales) • Strategist for Oscar Arias (Costa Rica), Rafael Hernandez Colon (P.R.), Jaime Paz Zamora (Bolivia), Bas Panday (Trinidad & Tobago), Joaquim Balaguer (Dominican Republic) • Campaign consultant in 36 US states (1970 – 2010) • President, International Association of Political Consultants (1986-7) • Co-founder of Climate Prosperity Enterprise Solutions LLC - 2009 to present About Venezuelan-Americans have university degrees 51% (compared to 29% of Americans) 70% are fluent in English Source: US State Department What’s it about? • Government repression of the citizenry • Paramilitary hit-and-run motorbike thugs • Excessive use of deadly force • Confiscation of constitutional freedoms • A climate of fear and scarcity The toll so far 41 Dead 785 Wounded 2,200 Arrested 60 Allegedly tortured Global condemnation of brutality US & EU: “Excessive use of force, unacceptable repression” Mario Vargas Llosa: “Venezuela is going the way of Cuba and North Korea” El Universal, April, 2014 Vatican, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador initiative for dialogue… Getting Nowhere The Government is not serious To get the government to seriously negotiate, sanction its criminals Thus: the PS&S campaign Venezuela’s Democracy Assets Venezuelan history is free, democratic, and prosperous Venezuelans are culturally unified Sanctions pressure from US and world could leverage a livable deal History at 1970 Large Poised to First middle class: enter the democracy 30% then vs. First in Latin America 5% now World 1958 Values 75% 18% 81% prefer revolutionary say many private democratic government enterprises are government essential for the progress of all Venezuelans Keller survey, March 2014 Culture private schools private enterprise rule of law private property individualism free press right to free peaceful speech assembly 90%+ still believe in Press & TV Media Historically free, private, and independent And competitive Big data shows TV Telenovelas Consumers Game shows Free choice Sports resonate with Individualism a culture of Entertainment Democracy Advertising Law Last Man Standing Here’s a surprise 85% watch the even though 2 private TV stations 8 GOV channels remaining are actively persecuting private TV DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013 Here’s a bigger surprise! 85% 90% of pro-government of the poorest voters Venezuelans watch private TV (E class) every day watch private TV every day DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013 Myth Reality 90%+ Venezuela is polarized of Venezuela is culturally 50/50 unified Conclusion Venezuela can be unified again around a Government for all Venezuela’s Democracy Liabilities Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State Entrenched corrupt regime Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia Crime pays To get the government to seriously negotiate, sanction its criminals Thus: the PS&S campaign US sanctions are based upon > US Interests > US Values > US Leverage National Security: Democracy Very high because: Russian missiles Freedoms The 750,000 b/d from Iranian nuclear materials Human Rights Venezuela must be refined FARC cocaine in US (no alternatives) Cuban “advisors” US is only full-price buyer Global money-laundering of Venezuelan oil Venezuela is dependent on Venezuelan oil is not a national interest of US, oil sales for 96% of its which doesn’t need it dollar income US look for sanctions support in Canada EU UK Netherlands France Spain Mexico Colombia Brazil Chile What’s happening Hyperinflation Capital flight Mountains of 60% to $405B debt 250% and counting The solution is foreign investment, but Only independent economic policies can reverse disastrous trends Only independent economic leaders are credible to global investors Ergo, PM Thatcher’s “TINA” There Is No Alternative Independents lead economic ministries, rationalize the economy, investment returns Modus vivendi with GOV until the next election GOV frees political prisoners, students International monitoring of the agreement is made transparent Likely political Vatican supporters of Brazil TINA deal Colombia Maybe: Ecuador (dollarized economy) Cuba (8-year dollarized tax-free investment policy, 15% profit tax Propose it: Cuba’s law would be a godsend to Venezuela Facing TINA, GOV has three choices Don’t do it Do it Hesitate (economy collapses) (and share the credit (economy collapses) for improvements) ? Promote the deal to all the people of Venezuela It is a win-win deal Reject revenge Embrace amnesty Dancing over the corpses of adversaries does not build an advanced homeland” Dissident leader Belal Fadl of Egypt The operating model M + D – A = C Monopoly + Discretion - Accountability = Corruption Problem-Solution The monopoly addictions Oil Dollars Cocaine Use Your Assets Venezuelan history is free, democratic, and prosperous Venezuelans are culturally unified Sanctions pressure from US and world could leverage a livable deal Recognize Your Liabilities Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State Entrenched corrupt regime Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia Long odds against, but democracy has a way of upsetting odds: Remember Pinochet, Fujimori, Mubarak, Qadaffi .
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