Thought Leaders Round Table – SAT. 17 May – FIU – Miami Strategy Presentation by Michael Rowan and Luis Fleischman About Dr. Luis Fleischman
• Two decades of Middle East and national security expertise • Senior advisor for the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy (Washington) • Co-editor with Nancy Menges of The Americas Report • Author of “Latin America in the Post Chavez Era: The Threat to U.S Security”, 2013 • Columnist and commentator for radio & TV • Adjunct professor of Sociology and Political Science at Florida Atlantic University Honors College • M. A. and Ph.D. in Sociology from the New School for Social Research in New York City • B.A degree in Political Science and Labor Studies from Tel Aviv University, Israel About Michael Rowan
• Columnist for El Universal - 1996 to present • Columnist for Veneconomia - 1999 to present • Author, Getting Over Chavez & Poverty - 2006 (Libros El Nacional) • Co-Author, The Threat Closer to Home - 2009 (Free Press) • Presidential campaign strategist in Venezuela: 1993 (Claudio Fermin) and 2006 (Manuel Rosales) • Strategist for Oscar Arias (Costa Rica), Rafael Hernandez Colon (P.R.), Jaime Paz Zamora (Bolivia), Bas Panday (Trinidad & Tobago), Joaquim Balaguer (Dominican Republic) • Campaign consultant in 36 US states (1970 – 2010) • President, International Association of Political Consultants (1986-7) • Co-founder of Climate Prosperity Enterprise Solutions LLC - 2009 to present About Venezuelan-Americans
have university degrees 51% (compared to 29% of Americans)
70% are fluent in English
Source: US State Department What’s it about?
• Government repression of the citizenry • Paramilitary hit-and-run motorbike thugs • Excessive use of deadly force • Confiscation of constitutional freedoms • A climate of fear and scarcity The toll so far
41 Dead
785 Wounded
2,200 Arrested
60 Allegedly tortured Global condemnation of brutality
US & EU: “Excessive use of force, unacceptable repression”
Mario Vargas Llosa: “Venezuela is going the way of Cuba and North Korea”
El Universal, April, 2014 Vatican, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador initiative for dialogue…
Getting Nowhere The Government is not serious To get the government to seriously negotiate, sanction its criminals
Thus: the PS&S campaign Venezuela’s Democracy Assets
Venezuelan history is free, democratic, and prosperous Venezuelans are culturally unified Sanctions pressure from US and world could leverage a livable deal
History at 1970
Large Poised to First middle class: enter the democracy 30% then vs. First in Latin America 5% now World 1958 Values
75% 18% 81% prefer revolutionary say many private democratic government enterprises are government essential for the progress of all Venezuelans
Keller survey, March 2014 Culture private schools private enterprise rule of law private property
individualism free press right to free peaceful speech assembly
90%+ still believe in
Press & TV Media
Historically free, private, and independent And competitive Big data shows
TV Telenovelas Consumers Game shows Free choice Sports resonate with Individualism a culture of Entertainment Democracy Advertising Law
Last Man Standing Here’s a surprise
85% watch the even though 2 private TV stations 8 GOV channels remaining are actively persecuting private TV
DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013 Here’s a bigger surprise!
85% 90% of pro-government of the poorest voters Venezuelans watch private TV (E class) every day watch private TV every day
DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013 Myth Reality
90%+ Venezuela is polarized of Venezuela is culturally 50/50 unified Conclusion
Venezuela can be unified again around a Government for all Venezuela’s Democracy Liabilities
Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State Entrenched corrupt regime Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia Crime pays To get the government to seriously negotiate, sanction its criminals
Thus: the PS&S campaign US sanctions are based upon
> US Interests > US Values > US Leverage National Security: Democracy Very high because: Russian missiles Freedoms The 750,000 b/d from Iranian nuclear materials Human Rights Venezuela must be refined FARC cocaine in US (no alternatives) Cuban “advisors” US is only full-price buyer Global money-laundering of Venezuelan oil Venezuela is dependent on Venezuelan oil is not a national interest of US, oil sales for 96% of its which doesn’t need it dollar income US look for sanctions support in
Canada EU UK Netherlands France Spain
Mexico
Colombia Brazil
Chile What’s happening
Hyperinflation Capital flight Mountains of 60% to $405B debt 250% and counting The solution is foreign investment, but
Only independent economic policies can reverse disastrous trends
Only independent economic leaders are credible to global investors Ergo, PM Thatcher’s “TINA” There Is No Alternative
Independents lead economic ministries, rationalize the economy, investment returns
Modus vivendi with GOV until the next election
GOV frees political prisoners, students
International monitoring of the agreement is made transparent
Likely political Vatican supporters of Brazil TINA deal Colombia
Maybe: Ecuador (dollarized economy) Cuba (8-year dollarized tax-free investment policy, 15% profit tax
Propose it: Cuba’s law would be a godsend to Venezuela Facing TINA, GOV has three choices
Don’t do it Do it Hesitate (economy collapses) (and share the credit (economy collapses) for improvements) ? Promote the deal to all the people of Venezuela It is a win-win deal Reject revenge Embrace amnesty
Dancing over the corpses of adversaries does not build an advanced homeland” Dissident leader Belal Fadl of Egypt The operating model
M + D – A = C Monopoly + Discretion - Accountability = Corruption Problem-Solution The monopoly addictions
Oil Dollars
Cocaine Use Your Assets
Venezuelan history is free, democratic, and prosperous Venezuelans are culturally unified Sanctions pressure from US and world could leverage a livable deal
Recognize Your Liabilities
Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State Entrenched corrupt regime Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia Long odds against, but democracy has a way of upsetting odds: Remember Pinochet, Fujimori, Mubarak, Qadaffi