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Àloiithly Report

PRELIMINARY DATA

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CONTENTS

Page

1 . MONEY AND BANKING 1

2 & BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3

3. MOGADISHU CONSUMIR PRICE INDEX 7

4» COMMODITY PRICE 8

5. FOREIGN EXCHANGE QUOTATIONS 9

Economic Research Dept.

P. O. Box 11 - Tel. 725/58 - 16 - 30 - 31 M 0 N E Y A N D BA N KING

In. '000 of So.Sh.

1* ORE DIT

Credits to Credits to Pub. Credits to Total Period Gov' t(net) Enterprises Private Sector Credits

April 1980 1,495.002 1 *169., 739 557.693 3.223.434 March 198O 1,382.384 1.330o134 423.069 3.135.587 514.175 1 .134.500 414.508 2.063.183

I Aggregate credits outstanding at the end of

stood at So.Sh, 3.223.4 million, as against So.Sh. 3.135.6

million registered in the preceding month of $ thus

showing an increase of So.Sh, 87,8 million or 2.8$. This was

mainly due to the increase in credits to the private sector

(So.Sh. 134.6 million or 31 c8$), as well as credits to Govern¬

ment, Infact, government's net position deteriorated, during

April I98O By SocSh 11306 million or d,2fopo However, a decline

of So.Sho 160.4 million 12$ recorded in the credits to

Public Enterprises contributed to reduce the increase in total

credits to So0Sli, 37*8 million only.

On yearly basis, credit to Government(net) showed

an increase of SoASh„ 981.3 million or 190 „9$ from SojSh.514,2 million at the end of April 1979 to So.Sh, 1.496.0 million at

the end of April 1980, whereas credits to the Public Enterprises

and Private Sector during the saine period, recorded increases of So.Sh. 35.2 Million or 3.1$ and So.Sh. 143.2 million or 34.5$ respectively.

2. DEPOSITS

Demand Savings Deposits Grand Period Deposits free Time Total Total April ; 1980 1,221,139 293.716 219*684 513.400 1.734.539 March 1980 1.226.798 281,363 217.721 499.084 1.725.882 April 1979 981.874 210.162 168.966 379.128 1.361.002

Total deposits at the end of April 1980 amounted to

So.Sh, 1.734.5 million, reflecting a slight increase of So.Sh.

8,7 million or 005$ over the previous month of March 1980; where¬ as on yearly basis they showed a substantial increase of

So.Sh. 373.5 million or 27.4$« Unlike the previous month of _ 2 -

March. 1980 when demand deposits accounted for the major part

of tlie increase in total deposits »during xhe month under

review savings deposits accounted for the whole increase in

total deposits, while demand deposits recorded a slight decrease of So.Sh. 5*6 million or 0.5$, Nevertheless, on yearly hasis the latter expanded by So.Sh. 239.3 million or 24.4%.

Savings deposits showed a modest increase of

So.Sh. 14.3 million or 2.9$ over the month of March 1980, rising from So.Sh. 499.1 million at the end of March 1980 to So.Sh,

513.4 million at the end of April 1980j whereas they recorded

a substantial increase of So.Sh. 134.3 million or 35,4$ when compared to their level at the end of April 1979.

Both Free and lime savings .deposits contributed to

the rise in Savings deposits, during the month of April 1980, with shares of 86.3$ and 13.7$ respectively. Meanwhile on yearly basis both free and Time savings deposits expanded by

So.Sh. 83.5 million or 39.7$ and 50,7 million or 30$ respectively.

3. MONEY IN CIRCULATION

, July I98O 1.408.703

June 1980 1.377.779

July 1979 1,107.090

Money in Ciroulation continued its expansionary trend during the month of , after having recorded a. slight decrease in the preceding month of June 1980j it expanded by So.Sh. 30,9 million or 2.2$| while on yearly basis they recorded a considerable increase of So.Sh. 301,6 million or 27.2$« - 3 -

Balance of Payments

April 19-30

Trade

Total export receipts at the end of April 1980 stood at

So.Sh. 61.3 million as against So^Sh. 126.5 million registered at the end of the previous month of March 198O, thus dropping

by So.Sh. 65»1 million or 51.5$ which has been brought about

by a decline in livestock ^asniings, Somalia's export receipts also decreased by So,Sh0 5«6 million or 8,3$ when compared to their level of April 1979.,

Export earning from livestock amounted to So.Sh. 43.4 million at the end of April 1980 showing heavy decline of

So.Sh. 59«1 million or 57«6^ with respec+ to March Í98Q v- figures. They also decreased by So„Sh.5.1 million or 10,4$ when compared with the level of the corresponding month of last year.

Export proceeds from banana reached Five million Somali

shillings showing decreases of So.Sh. 0.7 million and So.Sh.

0.5 million when compared with the levels of March 1980 and April 1979 respectively.

Export receipts from meat and meat products declined

sharply during the month under review dropping from So.Sh,2.9 million at the end of March 1980 to So.Sh, 0,3 at the end of

April 1980» . They also declined by So.Sh, 0.3 million when compared to their level of one year before.

The figures on hides and skins registered So.Sh. 4.9 million during April 1980 showing a decline of So.Sh, 5.3 million or 51«9$ from So.Sh. 10.2 million at thè end of the preceding month« Exports of Hides and Skins also dec¬ reased by So.Sh. 3d million or 39$ when referred to their level of one year earlier.

Also myrrah indicated a significant decrease during April 1980 under review as it reached the level of only

So.Sh. 1.2 million, while export earnings from myrrah in the preceding month of March 1 980 . ana the corresponding month of last year were So0Sh«5®1 million and So.Sh.4«1 million f respectively, thus shoving decreases of So.Sh, 3.9 million - 4 -

or 76t3$ and So »Sil* 2*8 million or 70,3^ respectively. Nafta which is.'a new item in the export side ("being a re—export product after processing oil) amounted to Sö.Sh.6.4 million» Export proceeds from other items during April 1980

totalled about S0..SI1» '0*1 million «

Breakdown of Exports

JL1 Items April 1979 March 1980 April I98O (1/° Chang?>)

Livestock 48ü492f,o84 102.490.751 43.435.082 -10.4 -57.6'

- 9.5 -11 .5 Banana 5.529,577 5 »653.446 5.000.628 -91.1 Meat 551.457 2,894 »023 255.659 -53.6

- mm - Pish 149.627 - -51 .8 Hides & Skin s 8.019.319 1oBi50.709 4.886.337 -39.0 1 -70.3 -76.2 Myrrah 4.050.223 5.061 .109 .201 .506

mm

- Nafta - 6.372.350 4-41 .4 -42.6 Others 86.879 214.166 122,858

- -51.5 Total 66 «879.966 126,464^204 61 ,274.420 8.4

1) Change of .80/April 1979 2) " " " " /March 19-30

» Import Payments

G-oods

On the import sido, import payments of goods amounted to So.Sh. 161.4 million showing a slight decrease of So.Sh, 7.5

million or about 4.4 percent and So.Sh«28.4 million or 14»9 pe£». cent, when compared with the levels of So.Sh. 168.9 million in Marc-h 198O and So.Sh. 189.9 million in the corresponding month

of 1979. mm ^ M»

Services

The "balance of services showed a deficit of So.ih» 37Î5 million during the month under review, which is much higher than the deficit registered in March 1980 (So.Sh. 14.0million)

and the corresponding month of last year (So.Sh. 17.0 million) respectively.

Unrequited Tranfers

A sum of So.Sh, 1 47 ' million was recorded under this item of which So.Sh, .0,007 million was registered as grants received from the International Red Cross on account of the

Refugees, while the remaining sum was registered as private remittances.

Capital Movement

Under this item the Somali Government received an amount of So.Sh. 11.5 million from various external resour¬

ces to finance on-going development projects (like Juba Sugar

Project, '.Vater Development Agency and Trans-Juba Livestock

Project). On the payment side figured the amount of So.Sh.0.3 million being a loan repayment to Italy. Thus, the balance of the capital account during this month showed a surplus

of So.Sh, 11.2 million .

Conclusion,

The overall balance of payments during April 1980 closed with a deficit of So.Sh. 125.3 million which is more or less the same as the corresponding month of last year which closed with a deficit of So.Sh. 13t*Q million. Meanwhile the balance of payments of last March 1 980 closed with a surplus of So .Sh. 104.8 million. — O —

Balance of Payaient s April 198O

Trade April 1979 March I98O April 1980 Exports 66.879*966 126.464*204 61*274.420 Imports 189.914.393 168.990.414 161*483.632 Balance -123.034.427 - 42.526.210 -100*209.212 Services (net) -17.038.901 -14,025.439 -37.587.969'

Unrequited Transfers(net) 1.401.655 125.386.791 1.374.885

Private 317.327 1.232.791 1.367.158 Official 1.084.328 124*654.000 7.727

Capital Movement (not) 14.707.254 35,443.930 11,159.087

Private - Receipts - - 156

- Payments - - 2.060 Official- receipts 14.707.254 35.443.930 11,478.856

payments - ~ 317.865

Overall Balance -123.964.419 104.779.072 -125.263.209 „ 7 »

MOGADISHU CONSUMER PRI05 INDEX

.July 1980

The Mogadishu OPI rose by 6.3$ in July 1980, oompared with a rise of 0.6$ recorded in the- previous month of * This sharp increase was due essentially to the sub-index for food (10,3$)j also the sub-index for clothes affd footwear recorded a modest increase of 2,-1$,» moreover the jjjb^indices for "beverage & Tobacco and Miscellaneous showed a very small increase of only

0.7$ and 0,5$ respectively, whereas the sub-indices for House Sent & Water and Fuel 1 Light decreased by 3$ and 0,7$ respectively.

The period between and July 1980 the general indax rose by 65.6$, compared to the increase of 58.2$ recorded in the period between and June 1900«

B A S E 1977= 100

Period Food B^Tobaccc) Clothes Ii „Rentcj Fuel & Misc. Genera] r. v & Water Light Index Footwear

Weight 60.1 9 0 1 5 ,6 15*3 4.7 12.1 100

1979

July 142.37 110,52 131.50 103. SO 144.75 158.14 137.17 August 143c25 110,52 ^50,51 106*92 174.91 165.20 141,54

September 137o24 110,52 149,62 107,09 200.60 165.76 139.20

October 154.06 159.02 154.02 113 « 86 192.57 168.53 151.08

November 158.22 202.10 150,87 122.32 212.38 166.45 156.87

December 148.58 156c70 148,07 139.61 224.19 189.86 155.96

1980

January 150*81 122.70 159.01 146 *50 190.69 197.50 157.54

February 161.76 122,70 160,43 - 147,21 198.69 199.05 164.88 March 167.62 189.41 163.99 149,76 202.48 197.46 170.45

April 203.46 195*73 164.55 154o95 220.41 194.77 193.47

May 239.62 137*69 180,69 154,13 227.95 163*57 211.24 June 241*05 161o29 174,63 1 54,-36 234.67 163.34 212.62 July 265.88 162.37 178.32 150,06 233.11 164.18 227.13

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Source: State Planning Commission - 3 -

Commodity Price

The overall price index of primary commodities other than oil and geld declined slightly in July, "by 0,4 percent in terms of UeS, dollars or 1„3' percent in terms of SDRs,

Prom June to July there was virtually no change in the index

for food and only a very small increase (0,8 per cent) in

that for agricultural raw materials, but a decline (4,9

per cent) in the index for beverages was offset by an incr¬

ease (3,4 per cent) in the index for metal prices. Compared with their February levels, when the overall index was at a peak, the July prices were higher only for food (6 per cent)| they were lower by 5 pen cent for beverages, 10 per cent for agricultural raw materials, and 11 per cent for metals. Pood prices in July would also have been lower (by 1 per cent) than their February level if sugar had been excludedcfnomthe index.

Among the foods, quite sharp increases for groundnut oil

(20,2 per cent), soybeans (15,3 per cent) and soybean meal

(11,5 pen cent), maize (8,0 per cent), European Community Sugar (12,3 pen cent)- as a result of a new level of prices agreed for the year starting July 1, 1980 -beef (7»5 pen cent)

and copra (7»4 per cent) were offset by a decrease of 11 per cent in the price of free market sugar, the first decrease in

several months. The price of sugar had doubled from 15 cents

a pound in December 1979'to 31 cents a pound in June 1980, The index prices for all beverages declined: coffee by 5,7

per cent, tea by 4,3 por eenf, and coccoa by 1,6 per cent. Por the agricultural raw materials, the indices roser&f.j,v>t!y for all the commodities except rubber, which declined by 1,3

per cent. Among the metals, price increases were recorded for

copper (8,2 per cent), largelyin the wake of the strike of workers in the U.S. copper industry, which began on July 1J

lead (9.6 per cent)? and zinc (555 Per cent). Tin prices declined by less than 1 per cent.

Source: IMF Survey August 4, 1980 -9 ~

FOREIGN EXCHANGE QUOïiilONS

As at . .oco 31/8/1980

Somali shillings per unit of foreign currency

Country Currency Buyin"; Selling

Algeria Dinar (4) 1 i.550 J 1 .6830 Australia Dollar 702643 7/4101 Shilling 0,4312 0.5010 Bahrain Dinar _(4) 161.5322 16.8629 Belgium Franc 0o21S6 0.2209 Canada Dollar 5O3853 5.4933

China RMB Yuan (4 4.2304 4.3150

Denmark Kroner 1o1233 1.1458

Dijbouti Franc (1) 0,03525 0.03596 Pound (4) 8.9040 9.0821 Prance Franc (1) 1 o4917 1.5215

Germany West Deutsch Mark. ( 1 ) 3o4657 3.5350 Greece Drachma (4) 0,1442 0.1471

Hong Kong Dollar 1,2543 1.2794 Rupee 0.8039 0.8200 Indonesia Rupiah (4) 0. 010* 0.0102 Riyal (l) O088S3 O.9042

Iraq Dinar (4) 21 .1052 21.5273 Italy Lira(1)(2) 136,75 134.02

Japan Yen 0,0285 O.O29O

Jordan Dinar (4) 21o272? 21.6976 Kenya Shilling (3) 0c8485 0.8655 Kuwait Dinar 2302777 23.7433

Lebanon Pound (5) 1.8278 1.8644 Dinar 21 o0529 21.4740 Luxemburg Franc (4) 0.2218 0.226"0 Malaysia Ringgit 2.9032 2.9674 Ouguyia (3) 0.1358 0.1385 Mauritius Rupee (4) 0.8237 0.8402

Marocco Dirham (4) - 1.6408 1.6736

Netherland Guilder 3o1 913 3.2552

Norway Kroner 1 0:2879 1.3136 Oman Eijral (4) 18.0449 18.4058

« 4 C Oïl ^ ci • ## - 10 -

Country Currency Buying Selling

Pakistan Rupee (4) 0.6296 0.6422

Qatar Riyal (4) 1.7123 1,7466

S. Arabia Riyal (1) 1.8802 1.9178

Singapore Doliar(4) 2c9441 3.0030

Siri Lanka Rupee (4) 0,3876 0.3954

Sudan Pound (4) 12.4654 12.7147

Sweden Kroner 1.4941 1.5240

Swizterland Franc ( 1 ) 3.7539 3.8341

Syria Pound (4) 1.5379 1.6197

Tanzania Shilling (4) 0.7610 0.7763

Thailand Baht (4) 0.3054 0,3115

Tunisia Dinar (4) 15.5395 15.9013

Uganda Shilling (3) 0.3485 0.8655

U.A. Emirates Dirham (1) 1,6878 1.7216 liaited Kingdom Sterling Pound(1) 15.0334 15.3341

United States Dollars (1) 6„2327 6.3573

Yemen Arab Rep, Riyal (4) 1«3661 1 .3934

Yemen P.D.R. Dinar (4) 18t>0449~- -18.4058

Yugoslavia Dinar (4) 0.2275 0.2321

Zambia Kuacha (4) 8.0321 8.1927

- SDR SDR 3.1978

1) Including in the list of specified currencies whose exchange transactions are carried out "by the Central Bank of Somalia and its authorized dealers,

2) Italian Liras per Somali Shilling 3) end of May 1930 4) end of June 1980 5) end of April 1980

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* M. Á. Ali * -*

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