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World Development Report 2010 Development and Climate Change A Climate for Change in East Asia and the Pacific Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Key policy advice from World Development Report 2010 Development and Climate Change Act Now, Act Together, Act Di erently Public Disclosure Authorized © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] This booklet is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. It draws on World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change and resources prepared by the staff of the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Region. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in these pages do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. Acknowledgments This booklet was edited by Flore de Préneuf and Florian Kitt, designed and desktopped by Roula Yazigi of the World Bank's Development Economics Vice Presidency; under the supervision of Marianne Fay and Rosina Bierbaum, Directors, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, and guidance of Magda Lovei, Sector Manager, Social, Environment and Rural Development, Sustainable Development Department, East Asia and Pacific Region, The World Bank. Photos © Chau Doan (cover), © Flore de Préneuf / World Bank (family),© Flore de Préneuf / World Bank (three girls), © Chau Doan (sluice gate and bridge), © Pham Thuan Thu (flooded road), © David Llorico Llorito / World Bank (wind turbines), © iStockphoto / Zhang Bo (buildings in fog), © Dang Than Lan (stormy sea), © Evelyn Ng (Kiribati aerial view), © Thien Giao (planting trees), © Guo Hua (explaining the principle of PV). The Case for Action limate change threatens all countries. Yet developing countries everywhere—from Asia to Africa to Latin America—will be disproportionately affected by the Cclimate crisis. The World Development Report (WDR) 2010: Development and Climate Change notes that they will bear 75–80 percent of the costs of damage caused by the chang- ing climate. Economic growth alone will not be fast or equitable enough to counter threats from climate change, particularly if it remains carbon intensive and accelerates global warming. So climate policy cannot be framed as a choice between growth and climate change. Instead, climate-smart policies are those that enhance development, reduce vulnerability, and finance What we do today shapes the climate of tomorrow and imposes limits on the choices that are the transition to low-carbon growth paths. available to future generations. technologies. Once greenhouse gases are emitted, they This booklet focuses on policy recommendations and steps remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, already being taken in East Asia and the Pacific to reduce the trapping heat and affecting climate patterns for a very sources of greenhouse gases (mitigation), adapt to changing long time. Power plants, new urban communities and weather (adaptation), and develop financial and technolog- reservoirs that we build today will last for many decades. ical partnerships in the face of a pressing global challenge. Climate change will depress agricultural yields in most developing countries. New technologies and climate- The WDR 2010 argues that the East Asia and Pacific resilient crop varieties that are piloted today could region and the rest of the world must act now, act together, determine the future energy and food sources of their and act differently, before costs go up and people suffer growing populations. unnecessarily. Act together Act now Rich countries must take the lead by reducing The world has a brief window of time in which their own carbon footprints at home and by help- to find the technologies and the funds to combat ing developing countries to finance adaptation to climate climate change. What we do today shapes tomorrow’s climate change as well as mitigate further global warming. and limits the choices that are available to future generations. Actions by rich countries to adopt ambitious emission Staying close to 2°C warming above preindustrial tem- reduction targets could free up some “pollution space” for perature levels—likely to be the best that can be done the unmet energy needs of millions of people in devel- —requires a global energy revolution with the immediate oping countries. According to the WDR, replacing 40 deployment of energy efficiency and available low-car- million SUVs with fuel-efficient passenger cars in the bon technologies, and massive investments in new United States would nearly offset the emissions from 2 providing electricity to 1.6 billion more people in devel- Planning ahead oping countries who currently lack access. Strong action by rich countries would stimulate inno- vation and demand for green technologies that can be rapidly scaled up. This would also help create a sufficiently large and stable carbon market. New technologies would enable developing countries to grow along a lower car- bon trajectory while expanding access to energy services. National and international support is essential to pro- tect the most vulnerable people through social assistance programs, to develop international risk-sharing arrange- ments, and to promote the exchange of knowledge, technology and information. Act differently In Vietnam, adapting to sea level rise, floods and changing irrigation requirements already factors in the cost of building infrastructure such as the sluice gate pictured here. Instead of planning for yesterday’s climate, policy makers must heed a variety of climate The costs of adapting to climate change in developing futures and promote innovation on many fronts . countries will be in the order of US$75–100 billion a year for the period 2010 to 2050—roughly the same order of In the next few decades, the world’s energy systems must magnitude as current overseas development assistance, be transformed so that global emissions drop 50–80 according to preliminary findings from a global study on percent. Infrastructure must be built to withstand new the economics of adaptation to climate change. The high- climate extremes. Agricultural productivity and water est costs will be borne by the East Asia and Pacific region, management need to improve to feed 3 billion more followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub- people without further threatening already stressed Saharan Africa. ecosystems. Only long-term, large-scale integrated management The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change is a multi- and flexible planning can satisfy increased demands year, multi country study designed to help decision makers on natural resources while conserving biodiversity and in developing countries better understand and assess the maintaining terrestrial carbon stocks. risks posed by climate change, so that they can better Adaptation should be based on new information about cost, prioritize, sequence and integrate adaptation strat- changing patterns of temperature, precipitation, and egies into their development plans and budgets, all while species. dealing with economic uncertainty, competing needs and Current financing for adaptation and mitigation is less limited resources. The study, funded by the governments than 5 percent of what may be needed annually by 2030. of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, Mobilizing the shortfalls will require major efforts. places particular emphasis on understanding the vulner- A major challenge is to convince people and institu- ability of the poor. Vietnam and Samoa are among seven tions to rally behind change and seize the opportunity countries assessed in depth. For more information, visit: to achieve climate-smart growth. http://www.worldbank.org/eacc. 3 Climate Change: A Threat to Growth and Well-being he East Asia and Pacific region, home to about 2 bil- lion people, has come a long way in its fight against poverty. The proportion of people living on less than T$1.25 a day was cut by 70 percent between 1990 and 2005. Much of this decline was in China, where 475 million people were lifted from poverty through remarkable growth. However, this progress has come at a high environmental cost. East Asia and Pacific doubled its energy use and carbon diox- ide emissions in the same period. Although average per capita emissions remain low in the region, China and Indonesia are now among the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases, due to high energy consumption in China and land- use changes and deforestation in Indonesia. A typhoon transformed this road in Hanoi into a river in 2008. The Philippines experienced catastrophic flooding the following year. The dominant challenge in the region is to balance growth magnitude of Indonesia’s emissions is subject to uncertainty and mitigation measures that would put the region on a less and yearly fluctuations. Deforestation across the region as perilous trajectory. TheWDR 2010 cites examples of strong a whole is being partly offset by high levels of reforestation action to combat climate change in the region. The climate in China. is ripe for change. Vulnerable coastal populations. Over half the countries in Tackling climate change through innovation is a priority the region are Pacific Island nations. A large number of peo- in East Asia and the Pacific because of several acute ple live along the coast and on low-lying
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