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Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006

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Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006 Prepared in cooperation with the Florida Department of Transportation Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006 Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5034 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Front cover: Large photograph: USGS hydrographer Mark Stephens measuring streamflow over the road at Withlacoochee River near Pinetta, Florida, using acoustic Doppler current profiler during the flood of April 2009. Photograph by Erik Ohlson, USGS, April 8, 2009. Small photograph: USGS hydrographer Erik Ohlson measuring streamflow through a culvert on Highway 90 at the Suwannee River at Ellaville, Florida, gage during the flood of April 2009. Photograph by Rachel Pawlitz, USGS, April 11, 2009. Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006 By Richard J. Verdi and Joann F. Dixon Prepared in cooperation with the Florida Department of Transportation Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5034 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Verdi, R.J., and Dixon, J.F., 2011, Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5034, 69 p., 1 pl. 9781411331013 iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................1 Previous Studies ...................................................................................................................................1 Description of Study Area ...................................................................................................................2 Data Compilation ............................................................................................................................................4 Annual Peak Flows ...............................................................................................................................4 Basin Characteristics ...........................................................................................................................4 Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency at Gaged Stations .......................................................5 Log-Pearson Type III Flood-Frequency Analysis .............................................................................6 Skew Coefficient ...................................................................................................................................6 Regional Flood-Frequency Regression Analysis .............................................................................7 Generalized Least-Squares Regression Analysis ...........................................................................7 Accuracy and Limitations of Flood-Frequency Estimates .............................................................8 Weighting of Log-Pearson Type III and Regression Analyses ....................................................10 Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency at Ungaged Stations .................................................12 Sites on Streams that Cross Flood Region or State Boundaries ................................................13 Comparison with Previous Analyses ...............................................................................................13 Effects of Flood Distribution and Magnitude in the Peak-Flow Dataset .............................................14 Flood-Frequency Analysis for Large Streams .........................................................................................15 Apalachicola River..............................................................................................................................16 Suwannee River ..................................................................................................................................17 Summary........................................................................................................................................................19 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................19 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................19 Appendix 1. Flood-frequency estimates using PeakFQ version 5.2 for Regions 1–4 ............................22 Appendix 2. Variance of prediction values for gaging stations used in Florida regional regression analyses ...............................................................................................................................58 Appendix 3. Flood-frequency estimates using PeakFQ version 5.2 ..........................................................69 Plate 1. Locations of hydrologic flood regions and gaging stations in Florida .............back pocket Figures 1. Map showing the location of the study area and ecoregions in Florida .............................3 2–4. Graphs showing— 2. Distribution of drainage area and storage for the four hydrologic regions in Florida ....10 iv 3. Relation of flood streamflow to drainage area for selected streamgaging stations and P-percent chance exceedance for the Apalachicola River in Florida .......................16 4. Relation of flood streamflow to drainage area for selected streamgaging stations and P-percent chance exceedance for the Suwannee River in Florida ...........................17 Tables 1. Basin characteristics considered for use in the regional regression analysis .................5 2. T-year recurrence intervals with corresponding annual exceedance probabilities and P-percent chance exceedance for flood-frequency discharge estimates .................6 3. Regression equations for geographic regions in Florida .......................................................9 4. Valid ranges of basin characteristics for the regional regression equations ..................10 5. Comparison of Bulletin 17B flood-discharge estimates from this investigation with Bulletin 17 or Bulletin 17A estimates from previous investigations ...................................12 6. Comparison of regression equation flood-discharge estimates from this investigation with regression equation flood-discharge estimates from previous investigations ..............................................................................................................................13 7. Comparison of weighted flood-discharge estimates from this investigation with weighted estimates from previous investigations ................................................................14 8. Comparison of weighted flood-discharge estimates from this investigation with weighted estimates from the Bridges (1982) investigation ..................................................15 v Conversion Factors and Datums Inch/Pound to SI Multiply By To obtain Length inch 2.54 centimeter (cm) foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m) mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km) Area square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) Flow rate cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s) Hydraulic gradient foot per mile (ft/mi) 0.1894 meter per kilometer (m/km) Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows: °C = (°F – 32) / 1.8 Vertical coordinate information is referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29). Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). Elevation, as used in this report, refers to distance above the vertical datum. Abbreviations and Acronyms DEM Digital Elevation Models GIS Geographic Information System GLS generalized least squares NED National Elevation Dataset NHD National Hydrography Dataset QA/QC quality assurance and quality control R2 root mean square error, coefficient of determination USGS U.S. Geological Survey Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Rural Streams in Florida, 2006 By Richard J. Verdi and Joann F. Dixon Abstract Purpose and Scope Methods for estimating the magnitude of floods for The purpose of this report is to update previously selected percent chance exceedance probabilities are published flood-frequency information for Florida by provid- presented for ungaged streams in Florida that are not sub ing methods
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