Future Proofing Cities Uganda - Secondary Cities Foreword

It is a great pleasure to introduce these Future-Proofing Cities Studies, covering cities in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Uganda. These studies, form an integral part of the Future Cities Africa (FCA) Programme that the Cities Alliance has undertaken over the past two years, with financial support of DFID. These studies covered nine cities that were carefully selected to represent metropolitan cities, secondary cities, regional capitals and cities within growth corridors. Together, they exemplify the challenges of contemporary rapid urban growth, and the opportunities and promise that African cities can and must hold for the future of the continent.

While demonstrating important differences between the cities, there is a common thread that is well understood by national governments and city managers alike: a combination of enabling national policies, strong institutions, well-resourced and accountable local governments, and informed and engaged citizens are essential for local and national prosperity. On the African continent it is precisely these type of cities, in every country, that will have to be empowered to contribute to the successful implementation of Agenda 2030, and grapple with the consequences of climate change. However, time is very short, as the majority of urban growth is determined more by facts on the ground than by effective policy-making.

I would like to thank Jamie Simpson, Erika Puspa and the entire FCA team for their outstanding work in completing a complex work programme against demanding deadlines, our colleagues at Arup International Development for the high quality of these studies, and Simon Ratcliffe and his colleagues at DFID (UK) for their constant support and encouragement.

William Cobbett Cities Alliance Director

Uganda – Secondary Cities is part of the Future Cities Africa (FCA) initiative in partnership with Cities Alliance and the UK Department for International Development (DFID).

FCA is a partnership initiative launched by Cities Alliance and DFID to support cities in Ghana, Ethiopia, Uganda and Mozambique as they transform themselves into resilient, inclusive centres of economic growth.

Unless specified, all images are copyright Cities Alliance or Arup Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Acknowledgements

This report has been developed by Arup in collaboration with Cities Alliance as part of Department for International Development’s Future Cities Africa programme. We would like to thank the Future Cities Africa team and the wide range of stakeholders we consulted in Uganda for making time to contribute to this study. Also, we wish to recognise the valuable guidance and feedback we have received from the Cities Alliance team on our findings and how best to communicate them.

Jo da Silva Director Arup International Development

On behalf of Arup International Development’s study team: Jose M. Ahumada, Kieran Birtill, Andrew Charles, Jo da Silva, Belinda Hewitt, Ripin Kalra, Braulio Eduardo Morera, Siddharth Nadkarny, Samantha Stratton-Short, James Waters

Graphic design: Mark Doyle

Contents

Introduction...... 2 Approach...... 5

Uganda...... 7 Secondary Cities...... 12 Arua ...... 17 Jinja ...... 31 Final Thoughts...... 45

Appendix...... 49 Information mapping...... 50 Low-carbon initiatives...... 51 References...... 53 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

African governments are counting on urbanisation to lift their nations out of poverty.

Figure 1. Market in Arua

1 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Introduction

The majority of Africa’s population will shift from rural to urban in the next thirty years. Future Cities Africa aims to help cities achieve inclusive economic growth, manage demographic change, and address environmental risks.

Africa is going through an Globally, future city growth will economic boom and cities are be almost exclusively in Africa at the centre of this pathway to and Asia, representing over 90% “The emerging future of economic prosperity. Two key of the world’s urban population features are set to alter Africa’s growth (WEF, 2015). In its recent cities largely depends future: a youthful population and report Future of African Cities: on the way we plan and urbanisation. Combined, these Poles of Prosperity or Slums of manage urbanisation, and features are defining the boom Despair (2015), The Brenthurst the way we leverage this in trade and industry and will Foundation indicates that by mid- transformative process to push modernisation and increase 2030 half of all Africans will live in connectivity across the continent cities. They suggest that three main ‘provide the setting, the (KPMG, 2012). drivers of African urbanisation are underlying base and also fuelling these historic changes in the momentum for global Africa’s cities are emerging as the continent: natural population centres of entrepreneurship, change” growth, rural-urban migration, innovation, creativity and invention. and large-scale dynamics such Africa is now the fastest-growing as connectivity, technology Joan Clos region in the world in terms of and globalisation (Brenthurst Executive Director UN-Habitat mobile telephone and internet Foundation, 2015). Linked to these access. It is anticipated that mobile drivers of growth, greenhouse gas data usage will increase twenty emissions in the region are expected times between 2013 and 2019 to grow rapidly, primarily through (Ericsson, 2014). Africa is also the increased fossil fuel use, and final inhabited continent on the agricultural expansion (Hogarth et planet to urbanise. al, 2015).

75 or over 50 to 75 25 to 50 Less than 25 1950 2014 2050 (projection)

Figure 2. Percentage of the population residing in urban areas Based on World Urbanization Prospects, The 2014 Revision. UN 2015

2 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

African city megatrends Development megatrends impacting African cities can be viewed as opportunities or risks depending on a city’s context.

Figure 3: African city megatrends - highlighting Ugandan megatrends based on Z-punkt, n.d. & Arup Cities Alive, 2014

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The challenge facing African The report discusses how Uganda cities is to provide their citizens plans to transition from a nation with equal economic opportunities with one of the lowest urban while transitioning to a low carbon populations in the world, at 15.8% economy, using limited resources to 60% urban by 2040 (NPA, 2007). efficiently, and managing rapid The rate of urbanisation in Uganda urban and population growth. has been very high – 7.74% in African cities also need to manage recent times. The majority of this the impacts of a youthful population. urban growth will take place in In Uganda, for example, the the small-medium sized secondary “The current wave of majority population is younger than cities (NPA, 2007). This report urban growth in Africa is 15. This leads African leaders to will also discuss the influence the occurring faster and on a question whether their demographic urbanisation strategy is having on larger scale than anything profile is an economic godsend or the regional development of the the world has yet witnessed, ticking time-bomb (World Bank, country. To discuss these messages, 2012). Future Cities Africa has selected two and therefore poses the cities, Arua and Jinja, to indicate the greatest challenge yet for For African cities to be successful current urbanisation trends and to urban and national policy- they should adopt integrated and highlight key challenges these cities holistic urban planning practices may face in the future. makers.” that consider not only inclusive economic development and low- This report relates to secondary Brenthurst Foundation, 2015 carbon development pathways but cities in Uganda and represents one also the environmental and social of four reports prepared for Future impacts of growth to promote Cities Africa. Each report covers liveable cities. Cities need to plan a specific country, its national for growth that is future-proofed for urbanisation strategy and its specific our changing climate, the challenges regional planning typology. The of scarce natural resources, and other three reports include: regional underlying geophysical risks. cities in Ethiopia, metropolitan cities in Ghana, and urban growth This report relates to urbanisation as corridors in Mozambique. it is currently happening in Uganda. It captures the present situation of cities and also the government’s planned urbanisation strategy.

Figure 4. Kampala taxi park Credits: Babak Fakhamzadeh / Flickr 4 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Approach

Future Cities Africa seeks to support cities in Africa to become future- proofed for climate, environment and natural resource challenges, so that they are inclusive and resilient, and have growing economies. It will help make cities work for the urban poor. It will conduct an in depth feasibility and scoping study and develop innovative tools to enable rapidly growing African cities to realise their potential as centres of growth and job creation; and use research and evidence to develop targeted urban action plans. Future Cities Africa Business Case and Intervention Summary (DFID, 2014)

City Governments are trying to... Future Cities Africa is working with Sub-Saharan (SSA) cities to future-proof them for the range of Manage social, economic, and environmental risks they are exposed to now and will be exposed to in the future. Achieve Demographic As discussed above, African cities transition are experiencing rapid population Physical & social growth and urbanisation alongside Inclusive economic a range of severe environmental growth shocks and stresses. City governments in Africa tend to Risk Climate change have limited institutional capacity, Natural resources over-stretched financial and human Geophysical resources, and limited data to guide decision-making. Future Future Proof Cities Africa has identified three Figure 5: Future Cities Africa drivers key drivers (see Figure 5) that are shaping African cities: achieving inclusive economic growth, managing demographic change, and addressing local risks associated These studies are part of an in-depth organisations better understand with climate change, natural feasibility and scoping phase to the specific challenges each city is resources, and geophysical risks. develop diagnostic tools to enable facing. Arup was asked to prepare Future- these cities to realise their growth Two tools are used as part of our Proofing City Studies for nine cities potential and begin to guide this data analysis to help us dig-deeper in four countries: Mekele and Dire growth toward a more resilient and into the capacity to act and risks Dawa (Ethiopia); Accra and Tema inclusive future. We hope that these in the cities - the Cities Alliance (Ghana); Tete, Nampula, and Nacala city studies will help practitioners Normative Framework and the Arup (Mozambique); and Jinja and Arua in local municipalities, national Environmental Risk Framework. (Uganda). administrations, and international

5 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Normative Framework Urban ER

Drivers of risk NABLING ENVIR CAL E ONM YSI EN Regional PH T Local Global

SER

VICES k NMENT RO ENVI

P E I I C

ONO SH N FCA M ZE program I Y T Biological & Natural entry-point I C resource risk

GOVERNANCE Dimensions of environmental ris

IN T ST EN ITU M Geophysical Risk TIO IRON NAL ENABLING ENV

Figure 6: Normative Framework Figure 7: Urban ER Framework

The Normative Framework describes the physical Arup has developed an Urban Environmental Risk and institutional environment which can support Framework (Urban ER) in order to help cities to cities to achieve inclusive economic growth, to understand and address the critical environmental manage demographic change and to future-proof challenges which shape urban wellbeing. The against environmental risks. The Framework helps: Framework identifies three dimensions of identify relevant data sources, facilitate discussions environmental risk for African cities: climatic, and build understanding of the factors that African biological and natural resource and geophysical cities need to ‘get right’ to achieve inclusive growth, hazards. A current risk rating is provided through an manage demographic change, and address future risk. understanding of existing threats. A future risk rating The Framework is a tool to assess the physical and is provided based on the drivers of risk at three scales: institutional enabling environment within African local (such as loss of local biodiversity), regional cities, and provides an evidence base for future (such as poor regional planning policy), and global planning, investment and decision-making. As part (such as climate change). Though understanding of this work, the Framework mapped the available the drivers of environmental risk, we can help city information for each city and to provide an holistic governments, advisors and stakeholders understand understanding of each city’s assets according to the how local urban development pathways can create five dimensions of the Framework. or compound risk. Urban ER can also help cities evaluate their capacity to act at different levels in order to mitigate current risk, and collaborate with others on a local, regional and global level to achieve a more resilient future.

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Uganda %

Uganda has been undergoing rapid urbanisation for a number 16 of years and has a strong and growing economy. Kampala was the dominant city for many years, but secondary cities are now growing rapidly too. National government sees of Ugandans urbanisation as the key to development processes – with five live in urban areas regional and five strategic cities identified.

The Republic of Uganda is a long civil war against the Lord’s 19.7% between 2009 and 2012; and landlocked country in East Africa Resistance Army (LRA). Today, the income inequality also reduced in bordered by Kenya to the east, South country is emerging as a strong and the same time period (UBOS, 2015). Sudan to the north, the Democratic growing economy, having already Per capita income is now at $703, Republic of Congo to the west, and started the process of economic putting the country closer to middle Tanzania and Rwanda to the south. diversification and with a goal to income status, however in the most It has a population of 35 million become a middle income country by recent year’s economic growth that has been rapidly growing over 2020 (NPA, 2007). has been slightly less at 4.5% in the last ten years (UBOS, 2014). 2013/14. Uganda however is still With a history stretching back over Uganda’s population has been in the low human development 2,000 years – indigenous hunter- growing at an average of 3.03% category, with a Human gathers mixed with Bantu-speaking between 2002 and 2014, and from Development Index ranking of 164 populations’ migrating from west the 1990s to early 2000s has had out of 188 countries. However, and central parts of Africa into an average economic growth rate from 1980 to 2014, Uganda’s HDI southern parts of Uganda. In mid- of 7% (World Bank, 2015). The increased 69.4% during which time 1890 the area came under the rule working population in 2012 was life expectancy at birth increased by of the British until independence in 13.9 million. This grew one million 9.3 years, mean years of schooling 1962. Since then there have been over three years between 2009 and increased by 3.6 years and expected intermittent governments, military 2012. The proportion of the poor years of schooling increased by 5.8 coups and conflicts including a has decreased by 4.8% to a total of years (UNDP, 2015).

Figure 8: View of Kampala Credit: Gilles Bassiere/Flickr

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Uganda at a glance

Economic growth Economic growth has Low urban population been high at 5.5% between % 2010/11 and 2013/14, the highest in recent years 5.5 being 9.7% in 2010/11. 84% Urban centres There are 202 urban Rural centres varying from Kampala with 1.5m people to many Town Councils with less than 5,000 16% Urban persons. The median size of urban centres is 24,000 people. Only 16% are currently living in urban areas, but the rate of urbanisation is high at 5.74%.

Population growth rate % Proportion of urban population for Kampala 50m 46.7 40.4 3 % Kampala is the primary 40m 34.9 Mainly due to % city, but decentralisation is high fertility 16 30m 41 reducing its importance. 24.2 levels combined 1991 2014 20m with a relatively 2002 2014 2020 2025 faster decline in mortality levels. Urban population growth High youth unemployment Over the past 12 years, an average of 300,000 78% youth unemployment (2012/13), however urban unemployment has declined from 29% extra people living in Uganda’s urban areas every year. in 2009/10 to 24.6% in 2010/11.

Figure 9: Uganda infographic 8 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Urbanisation has played a key grown, this has come at a cost to For food crops, there is great part of this development process, the environment. Economic growth divergence in predicted production helping the country to increase has led to significant environmental levels but most crops will have the overall level of productivity degradation across the country a reduction in total national in the economy. There has been including damage to wetlands, soil production under most scenarios a shift away from low productive erosion, deforestation, water and air to 2050. Importantly, climate subsistence agriculture to jobs in pollution, and loss of biodiversity. induced yield losses could be in the cities (World Bank, 2015), however order of 50-75% for coffee, which in 2012/13 72% of the population Climate change is set to impact a currently contributes about 18% still worked in the agriculture number of sectors in Uganda, given of total exports. This could lead to sector (UBOS, 2015). While living the potential increase in extreme a loss of about $1,235m in 2050, standards and welfare outcomes rainfall events and likely increase and $1,850m for the 75% scenario. have improved faster in cities, of 2°C by 2030 (USAID, 2013). The threat of floods and droughts although transport infrastructure For the water sector, projections are also creates the potential for serious has become overwhelmed in the for a much greater level of demand losses from cash and food crops; for capital and other cities with future and some reduction in supply. This reference the 2008 drought caused a plans appearing to favour car-based is likely to create serious water loss of $47 m (Baastel, 2015b). travel. While the economy has shortage in most months (Baastel, 2015a).

Central Government

Rural Urban

District Local Council City Council

County Municipality

Sub-county Town Council Division Division

Parish Ward Ward

Village Cell/Zone Cell/Zone

Figure 10: Local governance structure 9 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

For energy, climate change is likely middle income by 2017, the middle (STEI); land use and management; to reduce biomass availability and income category by 2032 and urbanisation; human resource; possibly decrease hydropower attaining the target of $9500 in and peace, security and defence.” potential from reduction in 2040 (NPA, 2007). This document Despite development in the formal precipitation. Predictions suggest identifies national economic sectors, the Uganda Bureau of a 26% loss by 2050, which would opportunities that include “oil Statistics (UBOS) indicates that the challenge even current energy and gas, tourism, materials, ICT informal sector is not only large, expansion programmes (Baastel, business, abundant labour force, but is the fastest growing sector in 2015c). Finally for infrastructure, geographical location and trade, Uganda, currently accounting for a potential doubling of extreme water resources, industrialisation, some 43% of the total economy. events every 25 years would result and agriculture among others…” Street trading and markets account in damages of around $77-467m by The strategy also identifies that for 44% of employment in Uganda’s 2025 (Baastel, 2015d). achieving this goal will depend on informal economy (University of the country’s capacity to strengthen Westminster, 2016) As part of its vision to become a the following: “infrastructure middle income country by 2020, (energy, transport, water, oil and Uganda’s ‘Vision 2040’ states gas, and ICT); Science, Technology, specific goals of reaching lower Engineering and Innovation

Figure 11: Panoramic view of Kampala Credit: Ronal Woan 10 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Among its strategic plans, the government views urbanisation as a key driver to the development process. It has a growth model based on Asian examples, including the need for integrated physical planning, land use optimisation and investment in commercial and industrial zones, however there is no clear definition of an ‘urban area’ in Uganda. As part of this, Uganda Vision 2040 identifies five regional and five strategic cities as key to national urban growth. The strategic cities each have a sector focus, including oil, industry, tourism and mining. Alongside this are plans to review the government service delivery system, accelerate industrialisation and a planned urbanisation policy. Figure 12: Uganda’s colonial urban system Source: Bakwesegha, 1974

Kampala

1.5M

Makindye 0.5M Nansana Kira Ssabagabo Mbarara Mukono Gulu Lugazi Masaka Kasese Hoima Jinja Arua

Figure 13: Relative population of cities in Uganda Based on data from citypopulation.de

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Secondary Cities

As part of the ‘Uganda Vision 2040’, five regional and five strategic cities have been identified. These are intended to attract investment away from the capital, providing general services to a large catchment area (regional) or a functional specialty for national economic development (strategic).

Figure 14: View of Jinja Credit: Ihertgo / Flickr

Uganda has been rapidly urbanising Unfortunately most migrants in recent years, at a rate of almost settle for activities that are not 6%. While Kampala remains by far highly productive, and the level the largest city, its dominance is of youth unemployment is high reducing. Having seen an increase (78% in 2012) (NPA, 2015). As Secondary cities growing in built-up area of more than ten infrastructure in main cities like Kampala has had the highest rates times between 2005 and 2010, Kampala has become stretched, of growth and in 1991 was home to Uganda’s population of urban there is intense congestion and 41% of the total urban population. dwellers is predicted to increase housing shortages. 60% of But this has decreased to 25% from 6 million to 30 million in the Kampala’s residents live in slums (2014) as secondary cities are next few decades (World Bank, and services particularly education booming – in large part due to rural- 2015). While urbanisation is and healthcare are stretched, as well urban migration. associated with economic growth as the provision of electricity and for the country and an overall piped water (World Bank, 2015). increase in living standards and welfare for many people, these Uganda’s urban hierarchy is rates of urbanisation pose many dominated by Kampala, and is a challenges for Uganda. good example of a primate city to secondary cities urban system.

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The urban system was first (10.6%) live in centres of less than established during British rule and 200,000 people. As Uganda strives has continued until today. Under to achieve 60%, these small-medium British rule urban centres were sized secondary cities will grow in Rapid economic growth developed to act as “modernising importance (NPA, 2007). agents” within the periphery The country’s economic growth has of Uganda and whose primary Uganda’s secondary cities are averaged 5.5% over the last 5 years functions were administrative and referred to as municipalities – driven by regional exports and an commercial – largely for the benefits within the current government expanding services sector. of the colonial administration administrative structure, although (Bakwesegha, 1974). These centres this may change soon with both were essentially designed to serve Arua and Jinja moving for city the interests of non-indigenous status. Municipalities have the groups (Europeans and Indians) power to make local policy, regulate who lived within the centres with the delivery of services; formulate indigenous populations forced to development plans based on locally live on the periphery (Bakwesegha, determined priorities; receive, 1974). raise, manage and allocate revenue through approval and execution of The urban hierarchy has remained own budgets; alter or create new Sprawl and slums the same in the years since boundaries; and finally to appoint independence and the existing statutory commissions, boards and Rapid urban growth has outpaced urban system still reflects the huge committees for personnel, land, planning and service provision, disparity between Kampala and procurement and accountability resulting in large slum areas and the next largest city. Uganda is (Government of Uganda, 1997). overwhelmed transport systems in 15.8% urban. 4.3% live in Kampala the capital and elsewhere. alone but the majority of urbanites

A secondary city...

...is largely determined by city, although some can be population, size, function, smaller than this. They will and economic status. likely constitute a sub-national Commonly, secondary cities are or sub-metropolitan second-tier Key areas of economic geographically defined urban level of government, acting as development jurisdictions or centres performing centres for public administration vital governance, logistical, and and delivery of education, The strategic cities represent production functions at a sub- knowledge, health, community, the focus for national economic national or sub-metropolitan and security services; an development: oil, industry, tourism region level within a system of industrial centre or development and mining. cities in a country. In some cases, growth pole; a new national their role and functions may capital; or a large city making expand to a geographic region or up a cluster of smaller cities the global realm. The population in a large metropolitan region of secondary cities range between (Roberts et al, 2014). 10-50% of a country’s largest

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After studying the national urban Strategic Cities are cities identified hierarchy the Government of to have a functional specialty of Uganda issued Vision 2040 which national economic importance, identifies specific urban centres as such as Jinja, a Strategic City set to Regional or Strategic after their develop as an industrial as well as role in the overall urban system. tourism city. Regional Cities are urban centres that provide general services Both Regional and Strategic cities Cities with large catchment in Uganda are secondary cities in to a large catchment area. The areas government has designated five relation to the functional urban ‘Regional Cities’ namely: Kampala, hierarchy with the primate city of Regional cities in Uganda have large Gulu, Mbale, Mbarara and Arua. Kampala. Secondary cities will catchment areas, or hinterlands. For Arua serves as a hub for the West each play an important role as example, Arua serves North West Nile Region, Southern Sudan and catalysts for growth, facilitating Uganda (West Nile Region), South Democratic Republic of Congo local production, transportation, Sudan and Eastern Democratic (DRC); the city is a transport and transformation, or transfer of goods, Republic of Congo (DRC). communications node with future people, trade, information, and prospects of a railway link to the services between systems of cities DRC and Southern Sudan, an (Robert et al, 2014). upgraded international airport, and This report focuses on one Regional fibre optic network. Vision 2040 also and one Strategic city from Uganda lists five ‘Strategic Cities’; Hoima Vision 2040 - Arua and Jinja as (oil), Nakasongola (Industrial), Fort identified by Cities Alliance. Portal (Tourism), Moroto (Mining) and Jinja (Industrial).

Figure 15: Street in Arua Credits: Dentalsafariafrica.blogspot.co.uk

14 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda Regional Town Strategic Town Sphere of influence South Wider Hinterland Central Sudan African Republic Ethiopia

Juba

Yei

Hinterlands Arua Gulu Moroto

Uganda

Bunia Hoima Nakasongola Congo Basin Rainforest Mbale Fort Portal Kenya Jinja

Natural Boundaries Kampala

Kisumu Mbarara

Nakuru Nairobi Lake Victoria Democratic Bukoba Republic of The Congo Rwanda

Mwanza

Burundi

Tanzania Mombasa

15 Regional Town Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda Strategic Town Sphere of influence South Wider Hinterland Central Sudan African Republic Ethiopia

Juba Arua Yei Arua is a ‘regional city’ that is in many ways a frontier city, strategically located between the Democratic Republic of Congo 15km away and South Sudan 75km away. The city is currently quite small at 62,000 Hinterlands inhabitants but is estimated to grow to 380,000, a Arua significant amount of growth in the coming years. The city’s economy is currently based on commerce, Gulu informal cottage industry, urban agriculture and Moroto hospitality.

Uganda

Bunia Hoima Nakasongola Congo Basin Rainforest Mbale Fort Portal Kenya Jinja Jinja

Natural Boundaries Kampala Jinja is a strategic industrial city, with a night-time population of 72,000 that rises hugely to 400,000 in the daytime. While much smaller than Kampala, it is still the second largest city in the country and has been Kisumu Mbarara established for over 100 years. Its economy is based primarily on tourism and industry and is strategic as Nakuru an ‘anchor city’ within the Entebbe to Jinja growth Nairobi corridor, as well as being part of the Greater Kampala Lake Victoria Metropolitan Area (GKMA) and part of the GKMA Bukoba Democratic Development Framework 2020. Republic of The Congo Rwanda

Mwanza

Burundi

Tanzania Mombasa

0 50 150 300 km Figure 16: Map of Uganda

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Arua % Arua is a relatively small city located strategically for 93 trade with South Sudan and the Democratic Republic from central government of Congo. Recent rapid growth has resulted in stretched of city budget comes from central government urban services. Connection to the national electricity grid in 2018 will enable its economy to significantly grow.

Arua is a secondary city in of 63,000. It has recently grown and was connected to the national northwest Uganda, the largest in rapidly in population at a rate of railway in 1964 but this line is the West Nile Region and 480km 5.6% between 1991 and 2002, and currently defunct. north of the capital, Kampala. The 3% between 2002 and 2014. As a city was established by the colonial consequence, the city has a high The city has a multicultural administration in 1916 as a prison population density of 6000 persons population with large ethnic camp. The name Arua is derived per km2 – a population density diversity and a high proportion of from the local name “Aru” meaning roughly equivalent to Tokyo, Japan young people. The town’s relative prison. The town is 15km east (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, stability within the region has led to of Congo and 75km south of the 2015). It has been estimated that regular waves of refugees, leading world’s youngest country – South taking into account both the urban to the diverse ethnic population and Sudan. As such, it is a frontier town, and peri-urban areas surrounding enabling trade to flourish with a vast dominated by cross-border trade the municipality, there are 500,000 hinterland stretching well into DRC and an important hub for non- people living there (Cities Alliance, and South Sudan. Unfortunately governmental organisations serving 2015a). The city is served by an however unemployment is also high in the region. airport that has regular flights to especially in the youth, and 50% of South Sudan and the Democratic the population are under 15 (Cities Despite this strategic location, Republic of Congo, the south-north Alliance, 2015a). Arua is still a relatively small Vurra-Arua-Koboko-Oraba Road city of 10.5km2 with a population

Figure 17: Arua Credits: Dentalsafariafrica.blogspot.co.uk

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Arua in numbers

Population growth rate Residents living in informal settlements 5.6% % 3% 8.3 38% Citizenship 1991-2002 Voters in last election 2002-2014 commercial 14 bank branches % 40 % 38 Buses or more depart increase number of 50 financial services and arrive from Kampala Economy in last 5 years and other towns of employments related to trade & business

% 10 $5.5M 93 from central government municipal employees/1000 residents Governance City budget

33% 15 primary school 18% 10.5% 75% Services University Access to regular Access to Solid waste collection of roads in slums 1 potable water electricity are maintained % 0.46 m2 x 0 Private green space in Arua: 22.9Ha Public green space Environment

Figure 18: Arua infographic

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Arua has a large informal economy Arua is strategically located and with most formal employment in poised for international trade. If trade and business (49.6% for the Congo and South Sudan stabilise, district). As such, it is dependent the city may become a hub for on commerce, the informal tourism and industry. Currently cottage industry, urban agriculture there is little industry as the city has and hospitality. The municipal lacked consistent energy until two International trade government receives almost all of years ago. However with connection Despite its size and current low level its revenue from central government to the national electricity network of industrial development, Arua has (93%). Given this lack of resource, planned for 2018, there is significant great opportunities for international there is also a lack of many basic opportunity for industrial growth to trade. Investment will be required services although there has been occur in the city in coming years. in basic services and ensuring youth significant improvement recently, A key part of this transition will unemployment is tackled. such as in the presence of tarmac be ensuring the large number of roads. In slums or low income unemployed youth find employment. areas in the city, 75% of roads are Arua has strong mechanisms of now maintained although access to participation which should continue regular potable water is low at only in this process. 18%, with connection to solid waste services is only 33% and 10.5% with an electricity connection (MLHUD, 2014).

Figure 19: British American Tobacco Factory 19 Credit: IPS News Agency/Flickr Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Arua is identified in national human resources, increase the development plans as a key amount of social infrastructure and ‘regional city’. It is clear that the improve the quality of existing city has potential to become this, public infrastructure and facilitate Centralised government with national and international availability and access to critical trade and tourism opportunities production inputs (Arua Municipal Arua is is still a small urban centre, and increasing transportation Council, n.d.). While it is too early receiving the vast majority of its city including an upgrade of its airport to to assess its implementation, the budget from central government. international standards. plan certainly addresses some of the Currently there are relatively few key barriers facing Arua fulfilling its municipal employees and the city is The city still faces a number role as a strategic regional city in the growing rapidly with urban sprawl of challenges including being country. occurring. Especially given plans surrounded by informal to expand the city boundary to development and unregulated urban include some of the surrounding sprawl, vulnerable water sources sub-counties, strategic planning and and deforestation (Cities Alliance, environmental regulation will be 2015a). Arua has developed a ‘Five- required. Year Development Plan’ for 2015- 2020 to address these challenges. The main aim of Arua’s Development Plan is to “increase and strengthen the quality of

Figure 20: Street in Arua 20 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

What is shaping the city?

A frontier town with The demand for market products is The rapid growth in trade was the international connectivity being met in large part by a complex result of increased consumption, network of informal trading based a construction boom in the post- The growth of Arua is due to its in Arua, capitalising on the lucrative conflict South Sudan and a lack of strategic location – a frontier city and untapped markets of South local production capacity (World and gateway to the predominantly Sudan and Congo. The porous Bank, 2011). Unfortunately, recent forested region of northern DRC – borders between these countries instability in South Sudan has Province Orientale, and the newly has led to a large and illegal trade led to a decline in trade between independent South Sudan. Both due to challenges of enforcement. the two countries. The Bank of these regions have been locations of In a piece of unpublished research Uganda forecast that the conflict in recent political, social and economic carried out at the London School South Sudan will affect Uganda’s instability. Northern DRC is a vast of Economics in 2008, the total overall economic growth. The and inaccessible territory – features informal trade with the DRC Bank estimates that the conflict taken advantage of by militia groups (imports and exports) was estimated has resulted in a decline of 31% that regularly commit atrocities at $91.7 million in 2008. Informal of formal trade between 2015 and against the local populations and formal exports to South Sudan 2016 (URN, 2016) . Arua’s strategic creating refugee crises. The peace grew enormously between 2005 and location and position as a trade hub deal and recent independence 2010, from $9.1 million in 2005 to is strategically important for the of South Sudan has opened up a $929.9 million in 2008. Ugandan economy as a whole and large amount of trade, as there was its role in the national urban system suddenly an increase in demand for will continue to define its future a wide array of consumer goods. development.

Figure 21: Market in Arua

21 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Governance of a large area residents from surrounding areas The Municipality is currently and even neighbouring countries negotiating the increase of its With under 10% of city budget who are acquiring land and utilising administrative area to include the coming from local revenue, the local municipal services in Arua. Our heavily populated peri-urban areas government employs a relatively estimates suggest this area may be surrounding Arua. Increasing the low number of staff compared as large as 60 km2. population of the municipality by to the municipal population. over 400,000 as estimates suggest Specifically there is only one urban There have been good efforts in will mean greater funding from planner for the city of Arua and one recent years to reduce infectious central government but also an environmental planner for the entire diseases, keep the streets clean and increase in responsibility to provide West Nile region covering an area provide basic services. But while services. of 14,070 km2. Meanwhile the urban local revenue collection is lacking, area is growing haphazardly and it haphazard growth continues and is a challenge for city authorities to extra pressure is put on city services enforce planning and environmental from people coming from outside, laws. The municipal area is only these tasks prove difficult to fund. officially 10 km2, but there are many

Figure 22: Market stalls in Arua

22 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Infrastructure provision February 2016 it was reported connected to the national electricity that there were no buyers for the grid which will significantly change There has been an improvement in compost locally and that compost the investment landscape for the the provision of infrastructure such was given away to those that could city, making it far more attractive as roads in recent years. However afford the transport to collect the for industry. The existing health and because the city is servicing a large product. educational facilities in Arua are unaccounted for population with stretched, in part because every day limited funds, the municipality is Electricity provision in the city is Arua receives between 200 to 250 stretched. There are still 25% roads low (10.5%). For the city overall people, most from DRC and South yet unmaintained. In slums, which there is still a deficit of consistent Sudan, accessing medical services and house 8.3% of the population, access energy, which is a barrier to schools (TheEastAfrican, 2015). to potable water is low (18%), solid industries locating there. Three waste connection to water services years ago the city was connected are poor (33%). The World Bank to a small northern-grid. This recently funded the development of electricity has spurred a small a waste composting centre, however increase in manufacturing in the when our team visited the site in city. In 2018, Arua is planned to be

Figure 23: Street in Arua

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Key Themes

Diverse ethnic makeup Unemployment Citizen participation The ethnic makeup of the city is Arua has a high proportion of Participation is good where local quite diverse, having receive an unemployed youth – an ‘idle society’ government engages the community influx of migrants from South with men with many wives, not through ‘barazaas’ to identify issues Sudan and the DRC, especially working. that are then communicated back; the during conflicts in the 1990s. whole community is invited. Citizenship

Unemployment Energy Trade and tourism hub Arua faces the challenge that There is currently little industry as There are strong trade opportunities approximately 50% of the the city has lacked consistent energy as Congo and South Sudan stabilise. population is under 15 years, until 2 years ago. The connection to Industry and tourism are also set to and youth unemployment is the national electricity grid in 2018 increase. high. However this is a potential will open up significant economic Economy future employment base. growth potential.

High reliance on central City boundary expansion Low municipal capacity government The city is trying to expand its There are relatively few municipal Arua has the challenge that over boundary so that the sub-counties employees for the total population. 90% of its revenues come from are part of the greater town, as well the national government and it as becoming a city, and formalising has weak mechanisms for local some of the informal sector, e.g. revenue collection. including informal settlements in plans. Governance

Recent transport Public health infrastructure Migrant pressure improvements upgrades The influx of migrants has put extra The city has seen a positive Arua is still weak in health and pressure on city services. change recently – there were no sanitation, solid waste management, tarmac roads 3 years ago. their sewerage system and water drainage however. Unfortunately Services there is inadequate financing for infrastructure.

Informal settlements Vulnerable water sources Deforestation The town is surrounded by The local Enyau River is running Much of the poor population use informal development and there dry – forcing the city to look for wood fuel for energy which is is unregulated urban sprawl alternative water sources. They are leading to deforestation locally. which provides a challenge for looking to groundwater but currently Barifa Forest provides ecosystem environmental protection. have no strategy for managing this. services to Arua. Arua is deciding wether to trade the services for commercial development (Nile Eco- Environment City)

24 To South Sudan Unplanned Areas 75 km City Administrative Arua Boundary River Enyau Drinking water supply for Arua. Decreasing rainfall in upstream catchment areas & poor water management along River Enyau is To Dem. Rep. of Congo threatening the water supply for Arua. The 15 km. city is looking for alternative sources Arua is the gateway & trade including boreholes & a costly connection to Regional Airport hub for the vast province the distant River Nile. orientale in eastern DRC.

Market Areas Commercial trade & business in Arua accounts for 49.6% of employment. Trade comes in from Prison towns as far away as Bunia, DRC Arua was established in 1916 as the location more than 250 km away. for a prison. Arua means “in prison”. + Golf Course Only green space in Arua is a “private” golf course

Edif Cathedral and School

Barifa Forest The proposed Nile Eco-City is planned to be the new commercial heart of Arua. The ecosystem benefits of Barifa Forest need to be considered in future plans. Unplanned Areas Regugees + rural - urban migration has resulted in extensive sprawl and a patchwork of urban & rural housing typologies. Refugee’s have occupied planned industrial areas in Oli River District within Arua Municipality.

0 0.5 1.5 3 km Kampala 480 km To South Sudan Unplanned Areas 75 km City Administrative Arua Boundary River Enyau Drinking water supply for Arua. Decreasing rainfall in upstream catchment areas & poor water management along River Enyau is To Dem. Rep. of Congo threatening the water supply for Arua. The 15 km. city is looking for alternative sources Arua is the gateway & trade including boreholes & a costly connection to Regional Airport hub for the vast province the distant River Nile. orientale in eastern DRC.

Edif Cathedral and School

Kampala 480 km Figure 24: Map of Arua Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Summary of environmental risks Three dimensions of environmental risk

Arua’s main threats are extreme temperature and risks associated Climatic risk with this – increased disease, The impact of climatic events on drought and water depletion. urban populations, infrastructure and economies

Climate change will exacerbate Arua’s already hot climate and make rainfall less predictable. As the city is already exploring new water sources, and the urban area sprawls, the availability of water will become a key risk. Plans are underway to consider Geophysical risk future alternate sources (World Bank, 2012b) but a moderate risk remains. The impact of geophysical events on urban populations, infrastructure Other threats include increased disease and economies transmission with increased temperatures, water contamination from poor solid waste management, soil degradation and loss of forests. The disease threat is compounded by refugee influx and consumption of contaminated water sources, but both of these risks should decrease with improved services. The loss and degradation of natural resources from a growing and spreading population will have to be managed and given environmental protection.

Biological and natural resource risk The impact of scarce or degraded natural resources on urban populations and economies

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Types of threat or hazard, with current and estimated future risk rating

Extreme Storm Wildfire Drought Flood temperature Wild bush fires in the dry Given the high temperatures Flood risk in the city is low Arua is in a very hot area of Hailstorms and lightening are season are a current threat and rainfall in the region, this (Arua District HRV Profile); the country with temperatures low risk. (Arua District State of is a consistent moderate risk. slums also suffer from predicted to increase. Arua District HRV Profile the Envt Report, 2007). Droughts are also on the rise flooding (AcTogether 2010). Across the country, the states destructive cases of In other cases, houses are across the country generally frequency of hot days has hailstorm & lightening with burned due to community (Uganda National Climate already increased - as a result lives of humans and animals misunderstandings and Change Policy, 2012) and malaria spreading into new lost as well as property conflicts but also low-medium August and September will areas of the country (Uganda damage, however risk level in risk (Arua District HRV get drier with climate change National Climate Change the city is low. Profile). (CDKN, 2014). Policy, 2012).

Earthquake Arua is in an earthquake risk zone (African Conservation Centre) and there have been minor quakes in the region, e.g. 4.5 magnitude on June 29 2015 (earthquaketrack. com). UN-OCHA show Arua in a ‘Degree VII’ zone (20% propobability of a very strong earthquake in 50 years) (UN-OCHA, 2007). Crop disease, Disease or Air quality Contamination infestation or failure of Fuel scarcity degradation or depletion of fresh water failure livestock systems Widespread bush burning is Currently minor risk of Drought caused agricultural For the District, diseases and For the District, the vast causing air pollution (Arua both water depletion from growth to drop in 2004-5 and poor feeding are problems for majority rely on wood fuel for RCRA). river running dry and water 2005-6 (Uganda National cattle rearing (Arua District cooking (Arua District HRV contamination (RCRA); Climate Change Policy, 2012) State of the Environment Profile); likely less of an issue also evidence of residents - more of a rural issue but will Report, 2007) - more of a rural in the city but still a risk. dumping septic waste into affect the city. issue but will affect the city. pits overnight - likely to cause groundwater pollution (World Bank, 2012b).

Soil Mineral Raw materials Loss of Vector-borne contamination depletion degradation or biodiversity disease and erosion scarcity Soil degradation (mostly Gold has been discovered in Widespread deforestation Lack of good evidence but Human disease/Epidemics erosion) is a significant issue Arua (Daily Monitor, 2012) currently going on (Arua reduction of urban green space rated ‘high risk’ in Arua HRV (Arua District State of the but no current evidence of District HRV Profile). and forests in the surrounds Profile. Environment Report, 2007). extraction. make this a risk.

Water-borne Air-borne disease disease Legend Human disease/Epidemics Human disease/Epidemics Current Estimated rated ‘high risk’ in Arua HRV rated ‘high risk’ in Arua HRV risk future risk Profile. Profile. Low

Medium

High

28 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Future challenges

A very high proportion of unemployed youth could become a challenge unless adequate employment is created; meanwhile adequate green space and water provision for the growing urban area need consideration.

Figure 25: Landfill in Arua

Blue and green resources as the proposed Nile Eco-City, a Climate change is altering the satellite city to Arua Municipality. regional rainfall patterns near Arua Water and vegetation are critical According to the new plan, about and particularly in critical river natural resources for Arua – one 650 hectares will be developed catchment areas feeding the city. of the driest areas of the country. into a bustling city called Nile The River Enyau is the primary The urban area itself has very little Eco-City (Skyscrapercity, 2013). source of water for the city. Today green space, with only 22.1ha, To replace the forest area lost to during the dry season it is common or under 2% of the current city development the municipality is for the river to run dry forcing the administrative area as green space. planning to allocating land 30km city to look for alternative water The existing green space within the south to an area on the DRC border sources. Currently five boreholes city consists of a private 18-hole for a new forest. While developing supplement the city’s water golf course built in 1950’s. The the existing Barifa Forest may supply but there is no detailed golf course is still currently in use provide some immediate economic understanding of the size of the but a portion appears to have been and employment opportunities, underground water aquifer beneath informally appropriated by citizens this area currently provides a the city and no long-term strategy for recreational purposes and also host of environmental benefits, for managing this water resources for grazing of cattle. One kilometre such as improved air quality and sustainably. The aquifer should be from the city centre on the southern biodiversity. A full ecosystem studied to determine the sustainable outskirts of the city is Barifa Forest, services assessment should be yield and therefore the optimal a natural primary forest 220ha in carried out to understand the quantity that can be safely extracted. size. The forest was designated for ecosystem services that will be lost. protection before independence in 1948 but may soon be developed

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Youth unemployment growth. However, there is still a lack currently exists for the proposed of skilled labour at present which new city boundaries our discussions Approximately 50% of the NGO’s and faith-based institutions with municipal authorities indicate population in Arua is under 15 are trying to address. Unless this that the city could potentially grow years. Arua’s high percentage unemployment challenge is tackled, by six times, to approximately 60 of youth is due to high natural it could lead to increased social sq. km and including a population population growth rates in the problems that are already being of approximately 500,000 people. 1990s (5.6% between 1991 and observed, such as a culture of an With central government transfers 2002) and rural-urban migration. ‘idle society’ of young men, not to municipalities tied to night- Unemployment among the youth is working. time population, this increase in very high. Out of 205 people who administrative boundaries will mean were randomly interviewed in Arua As the future workforce of Arua, an increase in central government district during the general elections, efforts should be made to tap into transfers to the city, currently 86% identified unemployment as the entrepreneurial spirit of the amounting to 90% of municipal their primary concern (NewVision, youth population, which combined revenue (Byabagambi, 2016). 2015). According to the Uganda with Arua’s strategic location Bureau of Statistics, the share of as a trade hub has holds huge Presently, the city is not able to meet unemployed youth (18-30 years) opportunity for success. the infrastructure needs and provide nationally stands at 64% (University basic services to the population. of Westminster, 2016) though this Expansion of the city and In Arua, 11,452 households are in may likely be higher in Arua which provision of services slums, only 0.1% of households has received many refugees in the are connected to electricity supply With increased trade and the last decade. and just under 0.2% have access to movement of people into the city, regular potable water (University of The large unemployed youth as well as the possible expansion of Westminster, 2016). While these low population is also an economic the city boundary, the city will need figures are partly due to the recent bonus if adequate employment can to provide services across a much arrival of electricity to the city, the be created to utilise this resource. larger area and number of people. transient nature of many migrants The youth represents the potential Currently the city encompasses an means that city services could 2 workforce of the future and could area of 10.2 km with a population constantly face being overwhelmed. benefit Arua’s trade and industrial of 62,000 people. While no plan

Figure 26: Arua street scenes 30 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Jinja

Jinja is a relatively old city that recently lost some of its industries to Kampala. Good transport connections and a large source of skilled labour of residents are living in poverty position the city well for growth. 80%

Jinja, in eastern Uganda, is set at Located 81 kilometres due east of the source of the River Nile along Kampala, the city has an urban area the tranquil northern shores of of 28 km2 and a resident population Lake Victoria. Today the city is of 73,000 (Cities Alliance, 2015b). the second largest in Uganda, is According to the 2014 Census, the also the second largest economy urban centre itself has not had great in Uganda and attracts a large population growth in recent years number of visitors for its beautiful (0.2% from 2002 to 2014) (UBOS, surroundings, colonial architecture 2014). Likewise its population Infrastructure and availability of adventure tourism density is still relatively low, at Jinja has significant infrastructure activities such as white water rafting 2,600 persons per km2 (MLHUD, already, a large source of skilled in the Nile. 2014) – equivalent to Brussels, labour and good transport Belgium (Demographia, 2016). connections. These conditions Historically, a small fishing village The population of the municipality position the urban centre well for existed prior to the location of an oscillates between 100,000 and renewed industrial growth, but administration centre in the area 115 400,000 persons every day however environmental concerns should be years ago in 1901. The centre was as people commute into the city addressed before significant negative strategically located at the source of to work and go to school. Jinja impact from development occurs. the Nile and benefited from ample is served by the Uganda Railway fresh water, fishing, and productive and is also a port for Lake Victoria agricultural areas in the hinterland. ferries; it also has an airport which With the railway connection to is currently small with national and Mombasa complete in 1928 and regional flights. the construction of Owen Falls hydropower station in 1954, Jinja began to grow quickly into an urban centre of significant importance.

Figure 27: Jinja Credits: Dentalsafariafrica.blogspot.co.uk

31 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Jinja in numbers

Residents living in informal settlements within city limits 73,000 % 0.2% 10.5 % City population 44 Citizenship Population growth rate Voters in last election

employing over 80% 52 3,000 Residents living in functional industries people Economy poverty

% 15 $7.4M 61 from central government municipal employees/1000 residents Governance City budget

% 27 primary schools 29 % % % 6 Universities or 12 24.5 86 higher education Services Access to regular Access to Solid waste collection of roads in slums institutions potable water electricity are maintained 7% of land use correspond ...the number of to urban agriculture, weeks a factory Two can be closed wetlands and forest environmental officers for the city for a breach on Environment reserve environmental 2 regulations

Figure 28: Jinja Infographic

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Jinja has a large informal sector that Uganda Vision 2040 recognises employs a significant proportion the strategic potential of Jinja of employed persons in the particularly as an industrial hub. It municipality (Cities Alliance, is located on a strategic road and rail 2015b). Like other cities in Uganda, link connecting Kampala (80km) Jinja receives a large proportion with the port city of Mombasa, (61%) of its operating budget from Kenya (1,065km). Plans are central government. The level of underway to improve the rail line Existing services this support is calculated according with a spur to Jinja. Jinja is also to the overall night-time population an in-land port on Lake Victoria Jinja’s history means that the town of each city. Due to the expanding providing connections to other cities has significant infrastructural peri-urban population and daily within the Lake Victoria Region investment already. It also has influx of rural to urban migrants, and is an ‘anchor city’ within the readily available energy and a Jinja Municipal Council (JMC) Greater Kampala Metropolitan large number of higher education struggles to provide services to the Area stretching from Entebbe in the facilities, and therefore skilled population. For instance in the city’s west to Jinja in the east. The city labour. The town has done a good slums and poor areas, access to therefore enjoys good transport links job of increasing its local revenue potable water is only 12%, to solid to major urban centres as well as collection, but certain services waste services 29% and sewerage bordering countries. such as sewerage and solid waste only 4.3%, and 24.5% have an management are overstretched. electricity connection (MLHUD, 2014). Despite this, JMC is making great strides to raise its own funds (39%) within a total overall operating budget of $7.5m/year (JMC, 2016). Figure 29: Nile rapids Credit: Sunisa Kanchanasua / Flickr

33 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Jinja’s history of energy and Year Development Plan’ for 2010- industrial developments means that 2014 identified “excellence in the municipality has significant tourism, commerce and industry” infrastructural investment already. in its vision statement (JMC, 2011). It has readily available energy and Given the city’s strategic location skilled labour, with a large number and latent infrastructure availability, of higher education establishments. there is clear potential for industrial Growth of industry Economic opportunities exist development. The municipality has The growth of industry has had around ecotourism, cultural heritage done a good job of increasing local negative environmental impact and and the revival of the industrial revenue collection. Anecdotally currently the city lacks capacity to base and waterfront development. it appears the city is able to raise tackle these issues in full. A recent Historically, industries were given 40% of its revenue from local Structural Plan for the city gives preferential power tariffs in Jinja resources such as through paid car good detail of future development which encouraged them to locate in parking and market trading charges. plans, but greater community the city. In recent times the removal But as mentioned certain services involvement will help to ensure of energy subsidies has resulted such as sewerage and solid waste balanced growth going forward. in industries leaving the centre in management are overstretched. This will be especially critical in favour of proximity to the larger Furthermore, there are signs the planning for peri-urban areas where market of Kampala. However Jinja city residents are becoming tired of the majority of informal settlements is still home to many industries such planning and consultation as well are. as a sugar factory, brewery, steel as lack of municipal capacity to factory, textile factory, tanneries and implement these plans. Faced with a palm oil factory. growing peri-urban areas and a daily influx of people, there is both an Jinja is identified in national opportunity and challenge to address development plans as a strategic tax revenue in these informal Figure 30: Owell Fall dam city for industry. The city’s ‘Five peripheral areas of the city. Credit: Nagarjun Kandukuru / Flickr

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What is shaping the city?

Infrastructure service within the city have deteriorated and provision sanitation and waste management have become key areas of concerns Jinja is a well-planned city built for Jinja Municipal Council. using a grid-system and has enjoyed enviable infrastructure from early Jinja’s privileged infrastructure on in its development. Since the supply is a key strength however construction of the Owen Falls (now much of its infrastructure is now Nalubaale) hydropower station built aging and demands increased across the Nile in 1954, the city has operations and maintenance budgets enjoyed a constant and inexpensive to revitalise its systems. supply of power. Industry was encouraged to locate to Jinja taking advantage of abundant supplies of power and water. A decision in the 1990’s to remove subsidised power tariffs enjoyed by industrial manufacturers in Jinja, industry began to shift. The key change in strategic advantage meant that there was no longer an incentive for manufacturing or industrial business to remain in Jinja. Shortly after this decision to remove subsides on power, small and middle-sized businesses began to shift 80km west to Kampala in order to be closer to the large metropolitan area. The city now has enviable infrastructure: three hydropower plants, two international hospitals and many higher education institutions. The city also has higher than average road coverage (86%). However the roads that do exist

Figure 31: Wastewater treatment in Jinja

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A well connected city has been proposed and plans are Jinja is also connected via a road, well underway for its construction. port and air connections. The lake Given its close proximity to The new line, financed primarily port and air connections are not Kampala, its road, rail, port by China’s Exim Bank will regularly used, however the road and air connections to the Lake carry passengers and cargo. Rail network is in good condition and Victoria Region and Kenya, and connectivity in particular will has been recently upgraded. Its its connection to the transnational open significant new export trade strategic location and connectivity fibre-optic network – Jinja is well capacity via Kenya to the global will continue to shape the future of connected both within Uganda market, and improve its regional and the city. and internationally. A planned new international connectivity making standard gauge railway (SGR) the city an even more attractive connecting Jinja with Mombasa place for business.

Figure 32: Jinja street scene Credit: ihertgo / Flickr

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Human resources people (versus 10). Despite the upwards of 360,000 or 82% of relative performance, the city only people commute into the city centre. Within Jinja there are a particularly has 1 urban planner and a trainee large number of higher education urban planner and 2 environmental Currently municipalities in Uganda institutions including campuses planners. Jinja’s ready access to a receive financial transfers linked to of national universities, a Civil local pool of talent is a key asset the night-time population of city. In Service College, many vocational that could shape the city’s future Jinja this equates to transfers that or business institutes, three growth. cover only 18% of the population military colleges, and schools and insufficient to provide services of nursing and health sciences. Urban edge conditions to the full population that takes This suggests the availability of a advantage of Jinja’s services. The highly-skilled workforce will be Jinja is surrounded by clusters of municipality is working hard to available to supply the local growth growing informal settlements on the generate its own-source funds to in industry, the service sector and edge of the city. In discussions with plug the shortfall in financing. A tourism. The council reported that the Municipal Council authorities review of the municipal boundaries a high proportion of municipal the city experiences a significant currently in discussion may also employees have a post-secondary difference in day-time versus night- help to address the gap in finance education (90%) and relative to time population due to this large for service provisions. A municipal other secondary cities in Uganda peri-urban population living on its finance review may help Jinja such as Arua, Jinja has greater doorstep. It is reported that each receive the assistance it needs from local government capacity with day the population of Jinja swells the national government to provide 15 municipal employees per 1000 from 73,000 to 440,000, therefore services within the city.

Figure 33: Street in Jinja 37 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Key Themes

Lack of social capital Lack of citizen participation The city is reported to have Involvement of the community a lack of social capital and in planning is largely missing confidence in local institutions. – currently there is minimal consultation.

Citizenship

De-industrialisation Barriers to economic growth Economic opportunities In recent years, following Barriers to economic growth for the Opportunities exist around energy subsidies lifting, some city include limited access to land ecotourism, cultural heritage, revival industries have relocated and the abolition of the preferential of the industrial base and waterfront to Kampala. There has also energy tariff. development. The city has a good been little investment in the stock of existing infrastructure that Economy manufacturing and service can enable industrial expansion and sector leading to a growing now needs institutional capacity and informal sector. incentives to attract investment.

Planning fatigue Low capacity Challenges with peri-urban There is a gap between the city’s There has been some recent areas 5 and 10 year development plan strengthening of capacity in many Jinja has a significant challenge in which remains unimplemented. areas by USMID, however the dealing with its peri-urban areas This has led to some ‘planning environmental capacity of staff and that are mainly informal settlements fatigue’. Furthermore the their enforcement powers are still and have a total population of Governance city has a challenge of particularly weak. 440,000 compared to 73,000 in the inadequate revenue for this plan municipality. On the one hand the implementation. city is not receiving tax revenue from this population that use city services, on the other were it to extend its boundaries it would have to provide further services there.

Surplus energy Rural-urban migration impacts Health and social services Services Jinja has energy readily An influx of people from rural The city is also overstretched in available in the formal city, has areas has overwhelmed urban health and social services, and large strong transport connections and infrastructure, specifically sewerage areas of land are now being used as is a hub of higher education. and solid waste management. dumping grounds, with only 40% collected by the municipality.

Informal settlements Degraded wetlands Pollution The town is surrounded by Wetlands in Jinja are being degraded Increasing water and air pollution informal development and there due to encroaching industrial from industries such as tanneries. is unregulated urban sprawl development. Environment which provides a challenge for environmental protection.

38 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary CitiesTo in Bujagali Uganda Falls Hydropower Informal Settlements Station 8km City Administrative Boundary Jinja Railway Line

Mombasa, Kenya 1065 km

Rail to Mombasa

Steel Mill Regional Airport

Kiira Hydropower Station

Train Station Built in 1928, conecting to Mombasa. The line is planned to Nalubaale Hydropower Station be redeveloped as part of the Starting in 1954 with the construction of new standard Gauge Railway Nalubaale Hydro Power Dam, hydropower in Network linking Kampala with Jinja now generates 620 MW off the river Nile. Mombasa.

Breweries

Quarry Textile Industry

Main water supply Water supply line had to be extended by 500m due to water pollution. Informal Settlements Universities Wetlands 82% of the wider Jinja Jinja is a higher education hub population live in informal with 6 universities located in settlements surrounding Jinja Fuel Storage Depot the town centre. Municipality

Waste Water Treatement Plant Kampala 84km

Industry Factories are being built in Source of reclaimed wetlands and are the Nile frequently cited over environmental concerns.

0 1 2 3 km

39 To Bujagali Falls Hydropower Future Proofing Cities | SecondaryInformal Cities Settlements in Uganda Station 8km City Administrative Boundary Jinja Railway Line

Mombasa, Kenya 1065 km

Rail to Mombasa

Steel Mill Regional Airport

Kiira Hydropower Station

Breweries

Quarry Textile Industry

Waste Water Treatement Plant Kampala 84km

Industry Factories are being built in Source of reclaimed wetlands and are the Nile frequently cited over environmental concerns.

Figure 34: Map of Jinja

40 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Summary of environmental risks Three dimensions of environmental risk

Jinja’s main threats are air quality degradation and contamination of Climatic risk freshwater sources. This is due to The impact of climatic events on the city’s proximity to a range of urban populations, infrastructure natural ecosystems, and growing and economies industrial risks.

Industry is already contributing to environmental degradation in the city through industrial emissions, effluent from industries such as tanneries and harmful land use practices on riversides and lakeshores. Geophysical risk Combined with poor sewerage and solid The impact of geophysical events waste management, the likely future growth on urban populations, infrastructure in industry will therefore make this a critical and economies risk for the city in future. The growth of the city and its population will also put increased demand on natural resources such as Lake Victoria fish stocks, and soil fertility. Wetland degradation and encroachment is likely also to become a significant threat as the city expands. These threats may be mitigated by strong environmental protection and management that allows Jinja’s abundant natural resources to benefit economic development and wellbeing.

Biological and natural resource risk The impact of scarce or degraded natural resources on urban populations and economies

41 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Types of threat or hazard, with current and estimated future risk rating

Extreme Storm Wildfire Drought Flood temperature The District has experienced There is little evidence for Jinja has a much more Storms occur in the area (Jinja Outbreaks have been recorded prolonged droughts in recent flood impact in the city, moderate climate (than Arua) RCRA), and Uganda has high in the city (RCRA). years (Jinja District State but it is in an area of major - no real risks of extreme lightning risk. Storms have of the Environment Report, storms (African Conservation temperature despite national been more frequent in eastern 2005). Centre, 2004) and the region is increase of hot days (Uganda Africa in the last 30-60 years expected to have more intense National Climate Change (CDKN, 2014). Policy, 2012). wet seasons in coming years (CDKN, 2014). The flooding hazard is high in this region (World Bank, 2011).

Earthquake Jinja is in an earthquake risk zone (African Conservation Centre). There has been earthquakes in the region around Kampala/Lake Victoria and in 1990 a destructive earthquake of 5.0 at Lake Victoria near Kampala that destroyed semi-permanent buildings (Nyago, 2012). Contamination Crop disease, Disease or Air quality or depletion of infestation or failure of Fuel scarcity degradation fresh water failure livestock systems Air pollution identified as Wastewater from processing No or little risk (at least No or little risk (at least within The vast majority rely charcoal a significant environmental of animal products is within the city) - and the most the city). and firewood for cooking risk (Jinja RCRA). discharged directly into ravaging crop diseases such (JMC Final Structure Plan, the drainage channels and as coffee wilt and cassava 2009). Charcoal comes from sewer line (SotER for Jinja mosaic now diminished to less the neighbouring districts of District 2005). Water front harmful levels (State of the Kamuli, Mukono and Mayuge, is at serious risk of being Environment Report for Jinja and there is declining forest degraded through silting and District, 2005). cover and wood fuel reserves encroachment (JMC Final (State of the Environment Structure Plan Report, 2009). Report for Jinja District, 2005). Soil Mineral Raw materials Loss of Vector-borne contamination depletion degradation or biodiversity disease and erosion scarcity Rate of change not known Soil erosion is a major issue in No risk. Reported incidences of forest for the district in 2005 (State Malaria is the leading cause of the municipality (JMC Final degradation - of the 47Ha of the Env. Report for Jinja morbidity in the district (State Structure Plan Report 2009). Kimaka Forest Reserve 2005) but reduction of urban of the Environment Report for Also excavation of murram deforestation, and pollution green space and forests in the Jinja District, 2005). and aggregate stones on the in other smaller forests (JMC surrounds make this a risk. hills of the municipality (State Final Structure Plan Report, Aquatic biodiversity in Lake of the Environment Report for 2009). Victoria under pressure from Jinja District, 2005). introduction of foreign spieces (JMC Final Structure Plan Report, 2009).

Water-borne Air-borne Degradation disease disease or depletion of Legend Diarrhoea accounts for 21% of Colds, influenza etc cover fisheries Current Estimated disease burden in the district 12.1% of the disease burden Continued risk (albeit of Nile risk future risk (State of the Environment for the district (State of the and Lake Victoria fisheries) Report for Jinja District, Environment Report for Jinja from illegal fishing gears Low 2005). District, 2005). and high demand from fish processing factories Medium (Jinja District State of the Environment Report, 2005). High

42 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Future challenges

Industrial growth is likely to exacerbate current environmental risks to local water sources and air quality. Potential expansion of the city’s boundaries will require integration peri-urban informal settlements into development plans.

City boundaries – to expand or Jinja is currently considering how Where and how to re-draw new not to expand its boundaries to become administrative boundaries in a City within Uganda. On onehand, the face of rapid urban growth Jinja has only one urban planner, city expansion is a challenge as presents a significant challenge two environmental planners and it means the city will become for city authorities in terms limited financial resources, there responsible for providing services of managing small municipal is a challenge of staff and services to a much larger population, and a budgets and negotiating the to keep up with both planned and population that is occupied in the provision of adequate services in unplanned urban growth. Due informal economy and living in secondary cities. An expansion to high levels of rural to urban informal settlements on the edge of the boundaries in Jinja would migration Jinja has many informal of the city who do not directly enable the city to respond to this settlements in its periphery and contribute revenue to municipal challenge more successfully and living outside the municipal council through taxes. If the comprehensively by having the full boundaries means that the city boundaries are expanded, Jinja extent of the challenge within one cannot collect revenue from most of will need more personnel to collect entity would make any response this population. revenue. The municipality also easier. anticipates difficulties in collecting revenue from the informal sector which makes up the majority of the economy in peri-urban areas.

Figure 35: Downtown Jinja view Credit: Yawjoshua27 - Google 43 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Environmental trade-offs Unfortunately the proximity of industries to water bodies, Within Uganda, Jinja is an industrial ineffective environmental controls city. Already significant industries and pollution from certain industries have located there taking advantage such as tanneries is leading to of its connectivity and available degradation of ecosystems and resources. These industries water pollution. It is clear that benefit not only the city but the local environmental and economic nation. Currently industrial land trade-offs are being made for the is being developed adjacent to sake of strategic national economic environmentally sensitive wetlands priorities. While economic growth and lakeshores – in many cases is important to bringing the city out encroaching on the national standard of poverty, care should be taken to of 100m setback from the lakeshore. safeguard valuable environmental Jinja is located on the shores of services from long-term damage or Lake Victoria, at the source of the even destruction. Nile and with abundant wetlands and freshwater ecosystems.

Figure 36: Industry under construction in Jinja 44 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Final Thoughts

Uganda’s secondary cities are already rapidly growing, putting pressure on basic services. Growing transport connections and energy provision will allow significant economic growth. Common challenges are likely to be managing growth beyond the formal city perimeter and environmental trade-offs with industrial development.

Governance and city At present many secondary cities challenge to provide services to boundaries struggle with service provision this large population and also an partly due to financial constraints. opportunity for the city to increase Secondary cities in Uganda are The majority of revenues come its tax base and increase revenue expanding rapidly and are struggling from central government transfers collections. Secondary cities should to keep up with the pace of growth. linked to night-time population expand their boundaries well The clear majority of this growth is statistics. Local revenue collection beyond the area that they deem is unplanned and unregulated and in is also hampered by limited human absolutely necessary and to also many cases is also occurring outside resource and capacity. Yet these prepare and implement a masterplan the jurisdiction of the municipal secondary cities receive high to ensure that future urban growth councils. numbers of daily migrants from is regulated. Procedures to regularly peri-urban areas – 88% in Arua update the city masterplan should be A key challenge for secondary cities and 82% in Jinja. These peri-urban in place. The regular update should is urban planning and management areas are often home to informal not demand extensive human or when much of the demand for city settlements and unregulated growth. financial resources, but should be services comes from populations With plans for city expansion into designed as a practical tool to be living beyond their man-made these informal areas, there is a key used by the city. jurisdictional boundaries.

Figure 37: Arua peri-urban area Credit: jose-mi / Google 45 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Environment and Industry Municipalities are showing signs For example, this planning area of progress, for example Jinja’s should consider the environmental In these urban areas that are tanneries are often cited and being assets and resources within a city experiencing rapid growth, industry held to account over the “bad and how these function as an has sometimes brought economic smells” and water pollution that ecosystem and the various services development at the expense of local they cause. The challenge for that these valuable areas provide to resources. For example in Jinja, the cities will be the strength of the city – for free. By understanding tanneries located along the lakeshore regulations, the environmental and planning the entire city, we can are frequently cited for breaching officers’ jurisdiction, and managing better understand where trade-offs environmental regulations through decisions by central government can occur between environmental illegal effluent discharge, while in that contradict national guidance, protection and industrial Arua water security and managing such as the location of factories in development. Moving away from limited water resources are a key wetland areas. Cities should identify an ad-hoc system of exceptions issue for the city going forward and the true planning area that needs to towards providing clear certainty on any industry that decides to locate be considered when planning the where development can and cannot there. city, which in some cases can extend occur will ultimately attract more beyond administrative jurisdictions. investment.

Figure 38: Lake Victoria shore, Jinja Credit: raymondpilot / Google 46 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Infrastructure in secondary that were designed for a much grid enabling the expansion of cities smaller population. Infrastructure industry and commerce. Evidently in both Arua and Jinja has not been city-specific energy provision To achieve goals set in Vision well managed or maintained and needs to match future growth plans 2040, secondary cities will need there are limited plans to expand depending on the level of industrial to improve their infrastructure the system, except in cases where growth, population change and other including utilities and transport donor funding has been provided to factors. infrastructure (road and rail) to prepare plans. connect with their hinterlands and Both Jinja and Arua are set to enhance regional trade links. As a critical driver for urban growth, expand physically and receive extra access to energy has shaped the pressure on city services from rural- The heritage from Uganda’s growth of both Jinja and Arua. In urban migrants in the coming years. colonial history has led to unequal the early 1900’s Jinja benefited Both cities shall find new ways to infrastructure provision between from access to hydroelectricity provide reliable basic services to the primary city (Kampala) and generated on the River Nile and facilitate local production, transport, secondary cities. While Kampala is enjoyed a privileged tariff rate that transfer of goods, people, trade, and rapidly developing, urban centres promoted industrial development. information services. Cities also that started for administrative and Arua’s development, on the other have the challenge of improving the commercial purposes primarily for hand, has been held back from lack coordination of public investment non-indigenous populations now of ready access to energy. Less with decisions related to the location have a significant infrastructure gap than 1% of households in informal of both people and businesses; and or what limited infrastructure does settlements in Arua are connected enhance urban planning with the aim exist is typically aging. Jinja for to electricity supply (University of of providing common knowledge example being over 100 years old Westminster, 2016). However, 2018 to guide and coordinate public and has both overstretched and aging will mark a tipping point when the private investment (World Bank, sewerage and solid waste systems city will be connected to the national 2015).

Figure 39: Jinja railway bridge Credit: Veigo

47 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Low carbon development and environmental factors in sub- formalising the charcoal industry Saharan Africa, and identified and promoting efficient household Uganda currently has one of the twenty long-term cross-sector cooking stoves will also generate lowest levels of urbanisation in the initiatives that can promote low- benefits for economic development world (16%) but one of the highest carbon development in sub-Saharan and reduced carbon emissions. urbanisation rates (5.4%), planning African countries (Hogarth et al, to transition to 60% urban by 2040. 2015). Some of these initiatives The most impactful opportunities With a strong GDP growth of 5.5%, have higher applicability to however are likely to be in much of this change is happening in Ethiopia, as indicated in Figure 40. generating on-grid electricity from secondary cities where construction A full list of these initiatives are renewables, shifting to a low-carbon is booming and light industries are included in Appendix B. automobile fleet, implementing growing. The country’s economic higher density multi-use urban plans growth has previously centred on For Uganda’s secondary cities, and mass transport for these cities. agricultural products such as coffee, opportunities for low-carbon Currently many secondary cities fruits and vegetables, flowers, development exist in removing fossil have critical energy needs limiting tobacco and tea. The industrial fuel subsidies for consumption, industrial growth. Further while sector is now growing in areas continuing to drive growth in light car ownership is low, the number such as construction materials and manufacturing and investing in of vehicles being imported into the cement, the manufacturing sector energy efficient processes in heavy country is high and emissions tests is growing and there is a potential industry. Uganda still has significant are currently lacking. Given the oil boom. There is therefore, an subsidies for fossil fuels and light country’s rapid urbanisation and opportunity to invest in low-carbon manufacturing and heavy industry growth of informal settlements, development as this transition are both likely growth areas, making investing in higher density multi- occurs. these key opportunities. Given use plans and mass transport will be the high charcoal use in cities and critical opportunities for future cities An Overseas Development Institute serious issues with deforestation, low-carbon development. (ODI) study analysed economic

Formalise the Generate on-grid Shift to a low- Implement higher Promote mass charcoal industry, electricity from carbon automobile density multi-use transportation and promote efficient renewable sources fleet and fuels urban plans systems charcoal kilns and and prevent lock-in biomass cook-stoves, of coal power and fuel switching

Figure 40: Key initiatives for low-carbon development along regional cities in Uganda

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Appendix

49 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

A. Information mapping

Arua Jinja Overall We followed a subjective process Citizenship to assess the information that was immediately available for each city. Participation Information was supplied by Cities Social capital Alliance and Future Cities Africa Community awareness and preparedness teams. Arup carried out a global information scan to identify whether Civil rights and justice any gaps could be readily filled Economy with open-source information. We Human capital applied a rating to this information according to quality and availability Institutional environment of data or information on each External macro environment sub-dimension within the revised Industry normative framework. Outputs Overall there is a considerable amount of information available in Governance order to evaluate the performance Enabling environment of Arua and Jinja in each area of the Municipal finance Normative Framework. Information is especially strong within the Representation and accountability Governance dimension. Municipal capacity There appears to be a lack of Risk management information around Ecosystem Planning Services and greater information is required regarding what is generated Services by the local economy (Outputs) and Social services how institutional and governance Basic services factors influence the economy (Institutional environment). Economic services Emergency services Environment Protective ecosystem services Regulating ecosystem services Natural resources Cultural ecosystem services Legend

High A substantial amount of information that is sufficiently detailed enough to use in further analysis work. Moderate An average amount of information of adequate detail. Information may require interpretation for further analysis work. Additional research is suggested.

Low A limited amount of information, or information of low quality or partially available information. More research is recommended. No data No data was initially supplied by Cities Alliance or Future Cities Africa team. A reasonable amount of time was spent looking for additional open-source information and none was readily available for the city. 50 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

B. Low-carbon development initiatives mapping

Building on the in-depth sector analysis, ODI identified 20 long-term Legend Potential for supporting cross-sector transitions (or initiatives) that can be undertaken to promote low-carbon economic low-carbon development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To rank and development score these initiatives, they developed a preliminary methodology using a set of four criteria: (1) the level of GHG emissions that they could High avoid; (2) the risk of lock-in that they could avert; (3) their contribution Medium to increased productivity; and (4) their contribution to poverty reduction. These initiatives were scored as having high, medium or low Low potential in promoting low-carbon development. Based on research carried out for this report we have provided a qualitative comparative score based on country specific knowledge.

Cross-sector transitions / initiatives SSA Ugnd. Why is it relevant in Uganda? What is the opportunity in Uganda? Agriculture While the majority of agriculture occurs in rural areas, Intensifying agricultural production elsewhere allows secondary cities especially source their food supply densification of urban and peri-urban areas with benefits of Reduce demand for from surrounding hinterlands and therefore influence economic efficiency, as well as reducing the demands on peri- agricultural land by and are influenced by these processes. Urban sprawl urban land use. is also putting pressure on the ecosystems in these intensifying production and Fluid land markets and regional land use planning will help hinterlands. For example 7% of Jinja municipality is reducing post-harvest waste manage this process. In Uganda only 18% of land is registered urban agriculture, wetlands and forest reserve and much and titled so improving land tenure will also help. of the hinterlands is for agriculture. Nationally there are plans to commercialise agriculture but evidence suggests there is a market development gap - thus Reduce emissions from As above, livestock husbandry is low in cities but the a potential opportunity for technologies and approaches to livestock demand for meat consumption has a direct effect. reduce emissions. Moreover, meat demand in cities is likely to increase with economic development. While the majority of agriculture occurs in rural areas, secondary cities especially source their food supply from Diffuse climate-smart While mostly applicable to large-scale agriculture, some surrounding hinterlands, and some urban agriculture benefits will come from climate-smart urban agriculture. agriculture practices occurs including a new resource and training centre in Kampala. Forestry Integrate rural land-use Not applicable to secondary cities. N/A planning There is significant deforestation in the hinterlands of many Ugandan cities. Key factors for deforestation Currently there is little valuation of forest ecosystem services include harvesting firewood for charcoal and urban Capture the value of forests’ in and around urban areas in Uganda. Examples like Nakivubo sprawl. In Arua, 220 ha of natural primary forest called swamp in Kampala show the value of capturing these values, ecosystems services Barifa Forest is threatened by a proposed eco-city, to help articulate urban land trade-offs. although land has been proposed to be allocated for new forest nearby. Energy Formalise the charcoal industry, and promote A majority of the urban households in both cities Switching to more efficient and reliable sources of energy efficient charcoal kilns and reviewed for this report rely on wood fuel and charcoal will reduce environmental damage, especially deforestation in biomass cook-stoves, and for household cooking. urban hinterlands. fuel switching Uganda has already constructed two large biomass plants Generate on-grid electricity linked to sugar production and manufacturing, that supply from renewable sources Both secondary cities have critical energy needs - Arua excess energy back to the grid. Construction has also just limiting industrial growth up to this point and energy started on the largest solar plant in Africa. The country has vast and prevent lock-in of coal subsidies spurring previous industrial development. potential for solar, hydropower, geothermal and wind energy, power and given increasing energy demands, there is an opportunity for investment in renewables.

51 Future Proofing Cities | Secondary Cities in Uganda

Promote electricity access Very important for rural development, but not applicable N/A from off-grid and mini-grid to secondary cities. systems in rural areas Transport

A reform of tax measures for investment in oil and gas Uganda has significant subsidies for fossil fuels, Remove fossil fuel subsidies exploration and production occurred in 2014/15 - given the although figures could only be found for exploration and Legend growing industry, it appears there may be benefits for removal for consumption investment. of any consumption subsidies.

Uganda has low car ownership rate, with the poor in Kampala doing 50% of their trips by walking. Exact The number of vehicles on Ugandan roads has increased Shift to a low-carbon number of vehicles is unknown but estimated at between 100% (by 500,000) between 1991 and 2011 and is set to automobile fleet and fuels 800,000 and 1,000,000 vehicles including motorcycles. continue. Ensuring these vehicles are low-emission will have a However emissions from vehicles are high and the level significant contribution. of vehicle inspection is still low. A majority of urban households live in dense and The density of secondary cities like Jinja still low, while they Implement higher density poorly serviced informal settlements both in and around struggle with urban sprawl and unclear municipal boundaries. secondary cities. Urbanisation and population growth Effective urban planning will help maximise provision of multi-use urban plans is still occurring rapidly, and national policy sees urban basic services, revenue collection and implement low-carbon centres as drivers of economic growth. transport designs. Urbanisation and population growth is occurring rapidly, An increase in per capita income will be accompanied by an and national policy sees urban centres as drivers of increasing demand for cars, so planning mass transportation Promote mass economic growth. The majority of urban residents systems now for secondary cities (that are not yet facing transportation systems use locally run shared taxis and in major cities private the challenges of Kampala with regard to road congestion) vehicles are already overwhelming road systems (e.g. will enable these cities to manage transportation demand Kampala). effectively and in a low-carbon way. Extractives Mining has decreased from being a significant Strengthen the use of contributor to the natinonal economy to only 0.5% in energy efficient processes 2010. However there is mining for cobalt, gold, copper, Given the high energy use in mining activities, these measures and technologies in the iron ore and other industrial products and certain areas will have significant contribution to carbon emissions. extractives sector have greater future potential for the extractives industry e.g. around Moroto. Mining has decreased from being a significant "Given the high energy use in mining activities, these Switch to lower carbon contributor to the natinonal economy to only 0.5% in measures will have significant contribution to carbon fuel sources and renewable 2010. However there is mining for cobalt, gold, copper, emissions. iron ore and other industrial products and certain areas energy in the extractives There is great potential for renewable energy sources in have greater future potential for the extractives industry sector Uganda including solar, wind and hydropower." e.g. around Moroto. After recent oil discoveries, the Ugandan government has made efforts to reduce tax breaks in the form of subsidies Uganda has had significant subsidies for fossil fuel Remove and avoid subsidies for fossil fuel production. This has been partially successful production, estimated at $380 million in 2013 and $400 however as some tax breaks have been reformed while others for fossil fuel production million in 2015. entrenched - there seems an opportunity for further removal of production subsidies. Construction With the growth of construction in rapidly growing Ugandan cities, this is an area of opportunity. Furthermore influencing Reduce emissions from Secondary cities such as Arua have seen a construction some of the large construction projects going on in growing boom, and nationally the construction industry is construction materials and cities can derive a disproportionately large benefit. Evidence growing strong. methods suggests that considering embodied carbon in the construction process would greatly add to sustainable construction.

National level criteria on low-emission operations that guide Reduce emissions from With increasing incomes across Uganda, energy local building codes could be implemented. There is likely buildings operations consumption in buildings is projected to be higher. great opportunity given the lack of implementation of building codes at present. Manufacturing Increase use of energy Heavy manufacturing is driven by a few multinational efficient processes organisations for industries such as oil and gas, or steel Industrialisation is picking up in secondary cities such as production. The impact of implementing energy efficient and technologies and Arua and Jinja, as is the oil and gas sector nationally. clean energy in heavy processes can be high considering implementation does not involve many actors in this sector. manufacturing Drive growth in light Industrialisation is picking up in secondary cities such Light manufacturing, while being a low-emission option, as Arua and Jinja, and Uganda has a significant leather can be a significant contributor to inclusive growth for the manufacturing industry. primarily agriculture-reliant economy. There appears little directive towards low-carbon products at Develop low-carbon Industrialisation is picking up in secondary cities such as present, but given that industrialisation is in its infancy in the products Arua and Jinja. country, there is an opportunity to direct production towards low-carbon products.

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