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Undermining Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA FOCUS ON THE GLOBAL SOUTH July 2019 Undermining Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA FOCUS ON THE GLOBAL SOUTH July 2019 Undermining Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA Copyright 2019 by Focus on the Global South Published by Focus on the Global South 4th Floor Wisit Prachuabmoh Building Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road Bangkok 10330, THAILAND Tel: +66 2 218 7363 Fax: +66 2 255 9976 Email: [email protected] www.focusweb.org Contents 7 INTRODUCTION 9 KEY FEATURES OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS 11 THAILAND Elections and Social Polarization 24 THE PHILIPPINES Not Electoral Politics as Usual 35 INDIA In the Grip of Charismatic Politics 53 CONCLUSION Elections, Authoritarianism, and Charismatic Politics 57 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS INTRODUCTION In the first half of 2019, have been larger were it This study seeks to shed a great deal of global not for legal and procedural some light on the electoral attention focused on national obstacles placed in their way. outcomes in the three elections in three countries countries in three stages: where authoritarian regimes In the Philippines, while or personalities were in President Rodrigo Duterte First, it examines the national command of the state: was not running in the mid- situation leading up to the Thailand, the Philippines, term election, everyone elections, the key issues that and India. The big question knew that the election was were before voters, and the was, would voters buck the a referendum on him and conduct of the elections. authoritarian trend or affirm his policies, particularly his it? In all three countries, controversial war on drugs, Second, it seeks to there were those who hoped and the electorate gave him understand the results of the for a “Malaysian surprise,” an overwhelming thumbs up, elections by situating them that is, a repudiation of the with the opposition failing to within the dynamics of the ruling regime such as that notch even just one in the 12 broader political process in delivered to the UMNO Senate seats in contention. each country. party dynasty by the voters in Malaysia in 2018. In India, the world’s largest Third, it engages in a democracy, where there comparative analysis of the When the dust settled, the had been a consensus electoral and broader political electorates in the three among pundits that the processes in the three countries had delivered state of the economy would countries, with an eye on striking, if somewhat drag down the ruling BJP’s drawing out both similarities divergent results, between (Bharatiya Janata Party) and differences. Thailand on the one hand numbers, the party led by and the Philippines and India Prime Minister Narendra The overall conclusion is that on the other. Modi was rewarded with the elections did not achieve an even bigger majority of their objective of mitigating In Thailand, the outcome parliamentary seats than in political polarization in showed the country to be 2014, giving credence to Thailand but were very divided as ever, with almost party leader Amit Shah’s pre- successful in expanding half of the electorate voting poll prediction that the BJP regime legitimacy in the for candidates of opposition would rule for the next 50 Philippines and India. The parties, a figure that could years.1 difference in the outcomes UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA 7 is traced to the contrasting the excision or repressive but no less daunting. This is dynamics of politics in the containment of an “Other” or keeping democracy alive in three countries. The Thai “Others” unto which the ills, an era of charismatic politics, election was a continuation problems, and disharmony of where electoral mobilization of the counterrevolutionary society were projected. becomes an instrument reaction to the lower-class for the transition to less based populism initiated Democracy is confronted democratic forms of rule. by Thaksin Shinawatra. with great challenges in the The elections in the three countries. In Thailand, Philippines and India were, the overriding task is how to in contrast, moments in the change an electoral system 1 “BJP Will Win 2019; Will Rule transformation of politics that hems in and constrains for Next 50 Years:’ Amit Shah,” by charismatic figures who democratic choice with Hindustan Times, Sept. 9, 2018, served as lightning rods institutions and procedures https://www.hindustantimes. for people’s discontent that are implicitly backed by com/india-news/bjp-will- win-2019-will-rule-for-next- and personified hopes and the firepower of the army. 50-years-amit-shah/story- visions for the future while In India and the Philippines, uqbwTVtGU1osyJxqZ19XKP. at the same time promoting the challenge is different html, accessed May 25, 2019. FOCUS ON THE GLOBAL SOUTH 8 JULY 2019 Key Features of Electoral Systems Thailand, the Philippines, and India display significant variations in their electoral systems. Perhaps the biggest difference among the three is that the Philippines has a presidential system, where the head of state is elected directly by the electorate whereas Thailand and India have parliamentary systems where the executive leadership or government is formed by the major party or alliance of parties in parliament, by the lower house or Lok Sabha in India and jointly by the Senate and the House of Representatives in Thailand. All three have bicameral legislative bodies, though again here there are important differences. In India, the lower house is far more powerful than the upper house or Rajya Sabha; in Thailand, the Senate is meant mainly to check the House of Representatives; while in the Philippines, the Senate might be said to be truly co-equal with the House and certainly far more prestigious, a situation much like that in the US, which colonized and transmitted many of its political institutions to the Philippines. Thailand Thailand has a bicameral elected, under the 2017 candidates who were “first National Assembly, election Constitution, there are 250 past the post” or got more or appointment to which senators, all of whom are votes than anyone else in have been governed by appointed by the National each of 350 constituencies. the Constitution and the Council for Peace and One hundred-fifty (150) Organic Law on Elections. Order. were allocated to political Changes in the Constitution parties based on their and, consequently, the Election to the House of share of the popular vote, Organic Law on Elections Representatives is via a a process popularly termed have been responsible for hybrid “first-past-the-post”/ “The party-list.” Under significant changes in the proportional representation this system, one vote voting system over the system, or “mixed-member counted twice, once for years. Thus, whereas under proportional representation the candidate and once the 2007 Constitution, system.” In the 2019 for his or her party. In the Senate had 150 elections, 350 of 500 seats calculating the number of members, 76 of whom were in play were reserved for party-list seats allocated to a party, the total number of constituencies won was deducted from the total allocation of party-list seats. In contrast to the system of allocating party-list seats in 2011, the 2019 system was regarded by many as discriminating against large parties like the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party. UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA 9 the Philippines The Philippines has a presidential system, with the president elected for one six-year term, with no possibility of reelection. Legislation is done by a bicameral Congress. The upper house, or Senate, has 24 seats, half of which become vacant and subject to election every three years. Senators are elected to a six-year term, with reelection possible for one more term. The lower house, or House of Representatives, is made up of India district and party-list representatives who can serve for three consecutive Elections in India take place at the level of the three-year terms. Eighty (80) Rajya Sabha, the Council of State that serves as percent are district representatives the upper house of parliament; Lok Sabha, the elected on a first-past-the-post lower house of parliament; state legislatures; system. Twenty (20) percent are and local bodies. The Lok Sabha elections party-list representatives. The are the most consequential since their results allocation of seats to parties is determine which party or alliance of parties will done according to their share of the get the privilege of naming the prime minister votes of those voters who indicate and forming the country’s executive leadership a preference for a party-list in their or government. Though formally equal with ballot, not the votes of all who cast the Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha is much less their ballots. The number of seats powerful in reality since it is the Lok Sabha that allocated to a party depends on forms the government. its share of the party-list vote, two percent being a minimum threshold, Election to the Lok Sabha is held every five though this is flexible if the number years unless the body is formally dissolved by of seats available cannot all be filled the president on the advice of the Council of by the parties which achieve the Ministers. The Constitution of India specifies minimum. The maximum number of that the maximum number of seats in the Lok seats allocated to a party is three, Sabha is 552; 543 seats were in play in the May which is given only to parties which 2019 elections. gain six percent or more of the party-list vote. Owing to the vast expanse of India and the large number of voters, some 900 million, elections to In the 2019 elections, elected the Lok Sabha in 2019 were carried out in seven- positions from the Senate down to phases over a six week period and the results the municipal level were in play.
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