Undermining Democracy

THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India

Focus on the Global South July 2019

THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India

Focus on the Global South July 2019 Undermining Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India

Published by Focus on the Global South 4th Floor Wisit Prachuabmoh Building Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road Bangkok 10330, THAILAND Tel: +66 2 218 7363 Fax: +66 2 255 9976 Email: [email protected] www.focusweb.org Contents

7 Introduction 9 Key Features of Electoral Systems 11 THAILAND Elections and Social Polarization

24 The Philippines Not Electoral Politics as Usual

35 India In the Grip of Charismatic Politics

53 Conclusion Elections, Authoritarianism, and Charismatic Politics

57 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

INTRODUCTION

In the first half of 2019, have been larger were it This study seeks to shed a great deal of global not for legal and procedural some light on the electoral attention focused on national obstacles placed in their way. outcomes in the three elections in three countries countries in three stages: where authoritarian regimes In the Philippines, while or personalities were in President Rodrigo Duterte First, it examines the national command of the state: was not running in the mid- situation leading up to the Thailand, the Philippines, term election, everyone elections, the key issues that and India. The big question knew that the election was were before voters, and the was, would voters buck the a referendum on him and conduct of the elections. authoritarian trend or affirm his policies, particularly his it? In all three countries, controversial war on drugs, Second, it seeks to there were those who hoped and the electorate gave him understand the results of the for a “Malaysian surprise,” an overwhelming thumbs up, elections by situating them that is, a repudiation of the with the opposition failing to within the dynamics of the ruling regime such as that notch even just one in the 12 broader political process in delivered to the UMNO Senate seats in contention. each country. party dynasty by the voters in Malaysia in 2018. In India, the world’s largest Third, it engages in a democracy, where there comparative analysis of the When the dust settled, the had been a consensus electoral and broader political electorates in the three among pundits that the processes in the three countries had delivered state of the economy would countries, with an eye on striking, if somewhat drag down the ruling BJP’s drawing out both similarities divergent results, between (Bharatiya Janata Party) and differences. Thailand on the one hand numbers, the party led by and the Philippines and India Prime Minister Narendra The overall conclusion is that on the other. Modi was rewarded with the elections did not achieve an even bigger majority of their objective of mitigating In Thailand, the outcome parliamentary seats than in political polarization in showed the country to be 2014, giving credence to Thailand but were very divided as ever, with almost party leader Amit Shah’s pre- successful in expanding half of the electorate voting poll prediction that the BJP regime legitimacy in the for candidates of opposition would rule for the next 50 Philippines and India. The parties, a figure that could years.1 difference in the outcomes

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 7 is traced to the contrasting the excision or repressive but no less daunting. This is dynamics of politics in the containment of an “Other” or keeping democracy alive in three countries. The Thai “Others” unto which the ills, an era of charismatic politics, election was a continuation problems, and disharmony of where electoral mobilization of the counterrevolutionary society were projected. becomes an instrument reaction to the lower-class for the transition to less based populism initiated Democracy is confronted democratic forms of rule. by Thaksin Shinawatra. with great challenges in the The elections in the three countries. In Thailand, Philippines and India were, the overriding task is how to in contrast, moments in the change an electoral system 1 “BJP Will Win 2019; Will Rule transformation of politics that hems in and constrains for Next 50 Years:’ Amit Shah,” by charismatic figures who democratic choice with Hindustan Times, Sept. 9, 2018, served as lightning rods institutions and procedures https://www.hindustantimes. for people’s discontent that are implicitly backed by com/india-news/bjp-will- win-2019-will-rule-for-next- and personified hopes and the firepower of the army. 50-years-amit-shah/story- visions for the future while In India and the Philippines, uqbwTVtGU1osyJxqZ19XKP. at the same time promoting the challenge is different html, accessed May 25, 2019.

Focus on the Global South 8 JuLY 2019 Key Features of Electoral Systems Thailand, the Philippines, and India display significant variations in their electoral systems. Perhaps the biggest difference among the three is that the Philippines has a presidential system, where the head of state is elected directly by the electorate whereas Thailand and India have parliamentary systems where the executive leadership or government is formed by the major party or alliance of parties in parliament, by the lower house or Lok Sabha in India and jointly by the Senate and the House of Representatives in Thailand. All three have bicameral legislative bodies, though again here there are important differences. In India, the lower house is far more powerful than the upper house or Rajya Sabha; in Thailand, the Senate is meant mainly to check the House of Representatives; while in the Philippines, the Senate might be said to be truly co-equal with the House and certainly far more prestigious, a situation much like that in the US, which colonized and transmitted many of its political institutions to the Philippines.

Thailand

Thailand has a bicameral elected, under the 2017 candidates who were “first National Assembly, election Constitution, there are 250 past the post” or got more or appointment to which senators, all of whom are votes than anyone else in have been governed by appointed by the National each of 350 constituencies. the Constitution and the Council for Peace and One hundred-fifty (150) Organic Law on Elections. Order. were allocated to political Changes in the Constitution parties based on their and, consequently, the Election to the House of share of the popular vote, Organic Law on Elections Representatives is via a a process popularly termed have been responsible for hybrid “first-past-the-post”/ “The party-list.” Under significant changes in the proportional representation this system, one vote voting system over the system, or “mixed-member counted twice, once for years. Thus, whereas under proportional representation the candidate and once the 2007 Constitution, system.” In the 2019 for his or her party. In the Senate had 150 elections, 350 of 500 seats calculating the number of members, 76 of whom were in play were reserved for party-list seats allocated to a party, the total number of constituencies won was deducted from the total allocation of party-list seats. In contrast to the system of allocating party-list seats in 2011, the 2019 system was regarded by many as discriminating against large parties like the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai Party.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 9 the Philippines

The Philippines has a presidential system, with the president elected for one six-year term, with no possibility of reelection.

Legislation is done by a bicameral Congress. The upper house, or Senate, has 24 seats, half of which become vacant and subject to election every three years. Senators are elected to a six-year term, with reelection possible for one more term.

The lower house, or House of Representatives, is made up of India district and party-list representatives who can serve for three consecutive Elections in India take place at the level of the three-year terms. Eighty (80) Rajya Sabha, the Council of State that serves as percent are district representatives the upper house of parliament; Lok Sabha, the elected on a first-past-the-post lower house of parliament; state legislatures; system. Twenty (20) percent are and local bodies. The Lok Sabha elections party-list representatives. The are the most consequential since their results allocation of seats to parties is determine which party or alliance of parties will done according to their share of the get the privilege of naming the prime minister votes of those voters who indicate and forming the country’s executive leadership a preference for a party-list in their or government. Though formally equal with ballot, not the votes of all who cast the Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha is much less their ballots. The number of seats powerful in reality since it is the Lok Sabha that allocated to a party depends on forms the government. its share of the party-list vote, two percent being a minimum threshold, Election to the Lok Sabha is held every five though this is flexible if the number years unless the body is formally dissolved by of seats available cannot all be filled the president on the advice of the Council of by the parties which achieve the Ministers. The Constitution of India specifies minimum. The maximum number of that the maximum number of seats in the Lok seats allocated to a party is three, Sabha is 552; 543 seats were in play in the May which is given only to parties which 2019 elections. gain six percent or more of the party-list vote. Owing to the vast expanse of India and the large number of voters, some 900 million, elections to In the 2019 elections, elected the Lok Sabha in 2019 were carried out in seven- positions from the Senate down to phases over a six week period and the results the municipal level were in play. were announced on May 23.

Focus on the Global South 10 July 2019 1 THAILAND Elections and Social Polarization

When the Thai military Background to the Retired General Prayuth launched a coup that March 2019 Elections Chan-o-cha beams as he deposed the civilian meets the press after receiving government in May 2014, Twenty-seven years ago, his royal appointment as it announced that at the when the regime led Prime Minister on June 11, most its rule would last for by General Suchinda 2019. Source: Gen Prayuth 15 months. It has been in Kraprayoon was ousted Chan-o-cha Facebook available power now for over five years. following middle-class- on https://web.facebook.com/ And in these five years, it led street protests in May prayutofficial/photos/a.4677557 has created the framework 1992, the event was widely 83720042/601049910390628/?t that would institutionalize its expected to have placed ype=1&theater under a Creative role as the dominant actor in an end to the Thai military’s Commons Attribution 2.0 http:// the post-military regimes to propensity to intervene in creativecommons.org/licenses/ come. politics. From 2001 to 2014, by/2.0

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 11 Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the youthful leader of Future Forward Party, greets his supporters before hearing charges against him at Pathumwan police station on April 6, 2019. Source: Prachatai available on https://www.flickr.com/photos/prachatai/47557961411/ under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0

however, Thaksin Shinawatra was the middle class, which being dominated by different transformed the country’s reacted negatively to the electoral incarnations of the politics. Shinawatra was a political and economic Thaksin bloc. After the latter business mogul who made empowerment of the urban won a majority for the fourth the rural lower classes, and rural poor, and cast its lot straight time in 10 years in particularly in the North and with the conservative elite, 2011, the anti-Thaksin forces Northeast, a firm base of providing the mass base for realized that widespread support through popular the push to remove Thaksin support from the masses policies like the enactment of from power. would assure the Thaksin bloc universal health care, a one- a permanent majority under million-baht investment fund Elite-led mobilization of the normal one person-one given to each village, and the middle class invited vote system. agricultural subsidies. The military intervention to oust traditional aristocratic and Thaksin in 2006, followed Over the next few months bureaucratic elite grouped by the Constitutional Court’s after the 2011 elections, around the monarchy, dissolution of his party, the a non-electoral strategy what some scholars called Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love gradually evolved: use the the “network monarchy,”1 Thais). After a short period judicial system to paralyze naturally felt threatened by of rule that was widely the government with charges Thaksin’s accumulation of recognized as incompetent, of corruption and anti- power. What was decisive the military gave way to constitutional moves; get the in pushing the dynamics of elections and civilian rule, middle class to stage massive the next few years, however, which resulted in parliaments demonstrations in central

Focus on the Global South 12 JuLY 2019 Bangkok, which was largely the National Council for pro- and anti-Thaksin factions anti-Thaksin territory; and Peace and Order (NCPO) (some would say, pro- and get the military to launch a sweeping powers to do anti-democracy factions) in coup to resolve the political anything that would bring the previous 13 years, marked deadlock. about the “promotion of the succeeding period. love and harmony amongst The military under the Bangkok in 2013–14 the people in the nation, or leadership of General Prayuth became the site of almost the prevention, abatement Chan-o-cha quickly moved daily demonstrations by or suppression of any act to set up a set of institutions, the middle class led by the detrimental to national order namely the National Democrat Party firebrand or security, royal throne, Reform Council, National Suthep Thaugsuban, which national economy or public Legislative Assembly, were punctuated by instances administration, whether the and the Constitution of deadly violence. As a act occurs inside or outside Drafting Committee to last desperate effort, the the kingdom.” Section reconfigure the country’s government resolved the 44, along with the existing democratic institutions to crisis through new elections, lese majeste legislation, either prevent the return but demonstrators and thugs section 116 of the criminal of lower-class-based sabotaged it by preventing code dealing with sedition, populism or to severely people from voting in and “Head of NCPO order handicap it in the event it many areas of Bangkok and 3/2015, Section 12,” which prevailed through electoral some other strong anti- banned political assemblies means. In this endeavor, Thaksin areas.Their rationale of five persons or more, academic collaborators who expressed in the slogan gave the military regime sought to dilute popular “Reform before elections” a wide latitude to detain participation aided the was a sanitized code for its opponents and critics, military. Among them devising constitutional leading a number to seek were right-wing theorists arrangements that would asylum abroad. like Anek Laothamatas, prevent the Redshirts, the who had proposed several popular term for Thaksin The subtext of the military’s years earlier “a balanced supporters, from ever coming rapid fire moves was, “The compromise between three to power again. civilians have screwed things elements: the representatives up. Now we’ll fix things so of the lower classes who are When Suthep’s forces finally this chaos never happens the majority in the country, provoked the military into again.” It was one that the middle class, and the ousting Yingluck, Thaksin’s resonated with the country’s upper class” to have “better sister who served as a stand- middle class, but it was not democracy” and to avoid in for him, the military was without appeal to some the “tyranny of the majority” determined not to repeat sectors of the Thaksin base that had brought Thaksin to the mistakes of the coup- that were weary of daily strife. power through thumping makers of 2006. It quickly majorities.2 Laothamatas, and decisively set about Political stability, underpinned a former communist turned promoting an interim by the broad support of the counterrevolutionary thinker, constitution, the centerpiece anti-Thaksin middle class and was a member of the junta- of which was the infamous with little opposition from a appointed National Reform Section 44, which gave civil society that had split into Council.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 13 The product of this tinkering Assembly passed, many with the machinery of of which were related to democracy in order to national security. Supplementing emasculate it was the Constitution of 2017, the constitutional key provisions of which Handicapping the were the creation of a Opposition in the constraints Senate of 250 members Run-up to the on future that would be selected by Elections the National Peace and civilian Order Council; vesting the After at least 10 Senate with the power to postponements to allow it governments veto any bill relating to to consolidate its hold on amnesty passed by the political power, the NCPO were some House of Representatives; finally set the elections for 444 laws participation of the Senate Parliament for March 24, in the selection of the Prime 2019.3 During the campaign that the Minister during the first five period, the regime took years of the constitution; advantage of its position of handpicked eligibility for the post of power and systematically prime minister of a person harassed the opposition. National who had not been elected Legislative to the National Assembly; For instance, despite and allowing the head of the Prime Minister Prayuth Assembly NCPO to remain head of the being the head of state government indefinitely if the and paid 125,590 baht per passed, many National Assembly could not month for performing this of which form a government. function by royal decree,4 the Ombudsman ruled that were related The Constitution was ratified the prime minister was not in August 2016 through a a government official, thus to national controversial referendum allowing him to circumvent that posed harsh restrictions the law that required security. on free expression via a government officials to draconian Referendum Act resign their posts in order to that carried potential 10- run for office.5 This enabled year prison sentences for Prayuth to combine his “misrepresenting the draft, government-financed official criticizing its content, or duties with his campaign disrupting the vote.” sorties and use official means of communication, Supplementing constitutional such as a weekly compulsory constraints on future civilian television program carried governments were some 444 by all television channels, laws that the handpicked to deliver his campaign National Legislative propaganda.6

Focus on the Global South 14 JuLY 2019 Perhaps the most crippling down to 200,000. The Palang Pracharat Party (PPR), instance of harassment party’s program called for funneling of personal money visited on the opposition the cutting of 60 billion to Future Forward’s campaign was the Constitutional baht from the defense fund, and holding of shares Court’s dissolution of the budget that could be used in a media company while pro-Thaksin Thai Raksa to fund a universal welfare campaigning for office, a Chart Party for nominating system “with pensions for violation under Section 98 (3) Princess Ubolratana as the elderly, the extension of the 2017 Constitution. its candidate for prime of health care to all citizens, minister on the grounds free education, and a Thanathorn and the FFP that the act was “hostile commitment to lift every either contested or denied to the monarchy,” which family above the UN-defined the last three charges, but was supposed to remain poverty line.”9 after the elections, the “above politics.”7 The party Constitutional Court went had intended to contest Chief party leader Thanatorn on to suspend Thanatorn 174 of 375 constituencies, Juangroongruangkit was, based on the last charge, so that the ruling left the however, very clear that preventing him from carrying pro-Thaksin bloc unable to the aim of the proposed out his duties as an MP, even field candidates in a great budgetary move was to as regime officials sought to number of these areas since “make coups part of history… prosecute him on the other the deadline for registering to establish that civilian charges. new parties had passed. government is above the Thai Raksa Chart had been army.”10 The message Pointing out that seven formed to stand alongside apparently played well as out of nine judges of the its ally, the Pheu Thai Party, the campaign progressed, Constitutional Court had to get around electoral rules especially with the younger either been appointed or disadvantaging large parties. generation who flocked had their terms extended by around Thanatorn like he was the NCPO, a spokesman for Analyst Paul Chambers saw a rock star. It did not play the Asian Parliamentarians the court’s move as designed well with the military. for Human Rights, said, “In to prevent the Thaksin bloc the context of the many from gaining a majority in The NCPO’s agents went politicised charges against the National Assembly. “We after Thanatorn and Thanathorn, it is difficult not must remember that the Future Forward for alleged to see the Constitutional judges now sitting on the violations of the election law Court’s move as another Constitutional Court were and Constitution, among attempt to silence a voice endorsed by the junta,” said which were the posting critical of the junta. For Thai Chambers.8 of a misleading claim on people to have faith in their Facebook that Thanatorn country’s democratic process, The Future Forward Party had been president of authorities must show that also faced harassment. This the Federation of Thai they respect the outcome of was not surprising, though, Industries,11 “defaming” the recent vote. This means for among Future Forward’s of the NCPO by claiming, allowing those elected to take priorities was reducing also on Facebook, that it part in public life, no matter the size of the army, with was poaching former MPs how ‘inconvenient’ their 400,000 officers to be cut to defect to the pro-regime opinions are.”12

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 15 Protesters in Bangkok In addition to legal The clip was proved to be demand impeachment of harassment, Future Forward fake.13 members of the Election became a victim of a Commission of Thailand concerted black propaganda for alleged irregularities campaign on the internet, Election Day during the March 24 the most brazen example Irregularities elections, March 31, 2019. of this being the circulation Source: Prachatai available on of an audio clip purportedly Though it was constitutionally https://www.flickr.com/photos/ showing Thanatorn handicapped and the law prachatai/40540066923/ negotiating with the exiled book was thrown at it, the under a Creative Commons Thaksin over ministerial opposition went on to contest Attribution 2.0 http:// positions. This was aired on the March 24 elections. creativecommons.org/ Nation TV, a channel known While largely peaceful, there licenses/by/2.0 to be close to the NCPO. was apparently a disturbingly

Focus on the Global South 16 JuLY 2019 Voters eligible for early voting cast ballots at a polling station in Sukhothai province on March 17, 2019. Source: Sukhothai Public Relations Office, available on http://thainews.prd. go.th/th/news/detail/ TCATG190317182225005 under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/2.0

large number of irregularities, of a broader problem. For The Election Commission most of them associated with instance, the report includes has come up against heavy the conduct of the elections a screenshot of a military- criticism from many quarters by the Election Commission connected Facebook chat for many “malfunctions” on (EC). A number of these group with posts ordering election day, but especially are presented in a post- its members, presumably for its “discovery” of extra election report produced by military personnel, to vote ballots after the initial tally. the civil society organization for the government party These discovered ballots Forces of Renewal Southeast Palang Pracharat.14 Also added to the total votes Asia (FORSEA) that claims reproduced is a memo for a number of parties, the irregularities were from a unit in the Interior including those for Palang documented by ordinary Ministry encouraging its Pracharat. Also eliciting anger citizens and had been recipients to vote for parties has been “the long delay in checked for authenticity. with a pro-NCPO agenda.15 the announcement of the The irregularities included While not all irregularities [official] results, which seems vote-buying, fake and reported are attributed to to suggest an intentional inaccurate ballots, pro-NCPO actors, there are delaying strategy by the government efforts to enough examples to suggest military government.”17 It was influence voters, tampering a pattern of pro-NCPO already nearly six weeks after with ballot boxes, irregularities: 16 reported the elections when the official irregularities connected attempts by government tally was announced May 7. with the transportation of officers to influence voters ballot boxes, and Election were documented, which Commission “malfunctions.” amount to 22 percent of Results Show all reported frauds and Continuing While only a few examples irregularities.16 These Polarization of each type of irregularity documented instances are presented, these can have become the basis In the final results announced reasonably be expected to for FORSEA’s call for the by the EC, the opposition be samples or a microcosm invalidation of the elections. Pheu Thai Party, as expected,

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 17 came out on top with 136 of 500 seats in the House of to their constituency seats, parliamentary seats, followed Representatives—to form a would have pushed their total by Palang Pracharat with 116, governing coalition. seats to around 255 seats. Future Forward with 81 seats, and the Democrats with 53. However, there was enough However, when it came to the The Party-List legitimate confusion around popular vote, Pheu Thai came Controversy the allocation of party-list in second, with 7,881,006 seats owing to the fact that votes, while Palang Pracharat As the battle to create a both the 2017 constitution was first with 8,413,413.18 government unfolded after and the organic law on What this meant was that the elections, the EC again elections dealt with the while the pro-Thaksin vote came under fire, this time on allocation of party-list seats remained solid, there was the issue of the allocation with words rather than also significant support for of the party-list seats.There numbers, leaving room for the military regime, with are 500 seats in the House subjective interpretation the likelihood that many of Representatives, 350 of of numerical outcomes not supporters of the pro-coup which are given to those covered by the written rules. Democrats had transferred who get “first past the This subjective interpretation their loyalties to the military- post” or get more votes of the rule laid in the backed Palang Pracharat.19 than anyone else in each of Constitution and organic these constituencies; 150 are law on election concerned For a party that had been allocated to the parties based the allocation of the formed just a few months on their share of the popular remaining but undistributed before the elections, Future vote. party-list seats. Based on its Forward’s performance was interpretation, the EC brought impressive. It disputed While the EC begged for down the minimum threshold Bangkok with Palang understanding owing to to 30,000 from the traditional Pracharat, with these the alleged complexity of benchmark of 71,000, two parties reducing the the formula for allocating benefitting 10 small parties Democrats to marginal status party-list seats, many have that so happened to lean right in a district that was once suspected it of manipulating rather than left, thus helping their stronghold. the votes to favor the regime. tip the parliamentary numbers Some have claimed that prior in favor of the regime. Overall, the political to the 2019 elections the polarization of the country EC had specified that the The upshot of this mix remained in place, leading minimum threshold of votes of confusion, subjective to an intense numbers game for a party to qualify to have interpretation, and to build a winning coalition a party-list seat was 70,000.20 coincidence is that the even before the elections Using this benchmark, only opposition coalition only took place. Immediately after 15 parties were qualified to secured about 245 seats the initial results were out, receive seats.21 Of these against the 253 of a possible seven parties, led by Pheu parties, those that made up pro-regime coalition.22 In a Thai and Future Forward, the opposition front of seven strongly worded editorial, the announced the formation of a parties would have been Bangkok Post has called this a “Democratic Front” that said entitled to an allocation of case of EC “hijacking,” which it had the numbers—255 out party-list seats that, added is not entirely untrue.23

Focus on the Global South 18 JuLY 2019 Six parties—Pheu Thai Party, Future Forward Party, Saree Ruam Thai Party, Prachachart Party, Puea Chat Party and PalangPuang Chon Thai Party—form the Democratic Front on March 27, 2019. Source: Prachatai available on https://www.flickr.com/photos/prachatai/47424799502 under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0.

While much commentary on biggest barriers to however, has not been a the elections have registered democratic development Facebook or Twitter-driven disapproval, there are those in Thailand have just process. Most likely, as in who see a silver lining in seen it smashed. And Brazil, it was because of it, which has to do mainly not just among the urban applications like WhatsApp with the Future Forward millennial LGBTQ-friendly and Line becoming the “phenomenon.” While the social media addicts. mobilizing tools, their Palang Pracharat resorted to Look at the by-election “invisibility” giving them the old-fashioned electioneering result in Chiang Mai potential to “wrest elections mechanisms, such as relying province where FFP away from the kind of top- on local “godfathers” and creamed the PPR party down control that both PPR 25 cascades of “canvassers,” machine. And this is not and PT have been using.” the FFP did not reach out Chiang Mai City. There to godfathers and had no aren’t enough trendy canvassers, yet came in lefties there to pull this off The Struggle to Form third. According to one by themselves.24 a Government experienced observer, Those of us who have FFP’s reliance on social media In the weeks after the March seen the patron-client has been suspected to be elections, the contending system as one of the one of the key factors. This, blocs engaged in intense

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 19 Political map of Thailand according to constituency seats won by different parties. Source: NordNordWest and Garam on https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2019_Thai_general_ election_results_per_province.svg under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-sa/4.0/

Focus on the Global South 20 JuLY 2019 competition to form a viable missteps that would erode junta-created regime a governing coalition. For its credibility. As one analyst veneer of legitimacy. But the the Democratic Front, it wrote, “Let the junta- failure of the government was an uphill struggle made appointed Senate choose party to secure a majority even more difficult by the Gen Prayuth and let him rule and the consequent loss of several expected over a coalition government. difficulties to create a viable party-list seats owing to And let’s see where that coalition have led many the dissolution of the Thai goes and how long it lasts. to question whether in Raksa Chart and the EC’s This is a time to let the fact the results might not interpretation of party- generals further undermine have led to its opposite: to list rules. To a number of themselves.”26 discredit the new order even observers, however, the before it began. It is also difficulties the opposition In any event, General Prayuth questionable if Prayuth’s faced in forming a viable was elected Prime Minister serving as the new regime’s governing coalition, even if by the bicameral National leader is not a case of one could be formed, were Assembly on June 5, 2019, strategic misjudgment, since so great that expending with 500 of the 750 votes this is tantamount to giving much energy on it was not going to him, though not a military face to what the justified. There could be after a session that elicited generals have so assiduously so many conflicts of interest an unprecedented level of promoted as a post-military to blow up such a diverse criticism of his performance civilian regime. coalition at any time and in the preceding five years. simply keeping it together His rival, Future Forward What is certain is that would detract from the leader Thanatorn, got 244 instead of reducing business of governing, votes. But in a preview of Thailand’s social though some would say the difficulties facing the polarization, the 2019 that there are no conflicts alliance of three big parties elections have confirmed of interest that cannot be and an assortment of smaller and deepened this. Despite solved by a generous helping parties supporting Prayuth, the political establishment’s of cash. Moreover, getting he is not expected to be able determined effort to banish the 376 MP votes necessary to form a government till the it, Thaksin’s lower-class to outweigh the combined end of the month.27 Indeed, based transformative politics votes of the pro-military inner-party strife owing to has continued to cast its members of the House of differences over whether or long shadow over Thai Representatives and the 250 not to support Prayuth has society. Ironically, therefore, senators expected to side led former Prime Minister the establishment’s reliance with them in choosing the Abhisit Vejjajiva, a Democrat, on the military may prime minister was not within to announce his forthcoming have increased. In this the realm of possibility. resignation from the House connection, the appointment of Representatives over of a hardliner like General It would be better, in this the Democrats’ decision to Apirat Kongsompong as view, to be in the opposition support Prayuth. head of the army does not and make the military- bode well for a peaceful led governing coalition The elections have been resumption of the stalled accountable; to let it make necessary to provide the democratization of Thailand.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 21 Conclusion the regime was to prevent interpretation of the law, and a populist government of coincidence that marked The middle-class-based the Thaksin type from ever the process was that the street mobilizations led coming to power again and, opposition had little chance by anti-Thaksin forces if one did come to power, of forming a governing provoked the Thai military to hem it in with so many coalition. into launching a coup against constraints that it would the democratically elected become ineffective. The prospects of having a government of Yingluck Democratic Front coalition Shinawatra in May 2014. In the lead up to the 2019 government were quite These forces were convinced elections, the opposition dim following the elections, that elections would simply was subjected to systematic leading a number of analysts give the allies of the former harassment, the most blatant to suggest that instead of Prime Minister a permanent case being the dissolution of pursuing this fruitless effort, majority. The troubles in the Thai Raksa Chart Party for the pro-democracy coalition the streets reinforced the nominating a member of the should focus on being an military’s perception of itself royal family to run for office. opposition and making a pro- as the only institution that Political and legal harassment military regime accountable, could provide stability to the were also directed at the letting the latter be the one country. up-and- coming Future torn apart by a fractious Forward Party that explicitly coalition politics and lose After five years in power, campaigned on a platform of credibility in the process. the military regime allowed “making coups history.” parliamentary elections to In any event, the government be held last March 24. In A number of irregularities coalition led by Palang the intervening period from marked the electoral process Pracharat mustered 500 of since they launched a coup on election day, a number of 750 votes to make General in May 2014 to the recently- these committed by officials Prayuth the Prime Minister, held elections, the military of state agencies encouraging in effect succeeding himself. created a constitutional and their personnel to vote There have been questions legal framework that would for pro-regime parties. whether the alliance of institutionalize their role as Documented instances of three big parties and an the arbiter of and key actor in such acts compiled by the assortment of smaller parties Thai politics. Forces of Renewal Southeast will be able to form a stable Asia have become the basis ruling coalition. Even more The centerpiece of the of that organization’s call problematic is that Prayuth Constitution of 2017 was a for the invalidation of the is providing a military face Senate appointed by the elections. to a regime whose authors current military regime that have promoted as a post- had extensive powers, which The major controversy of military civilian government. included voting for a Prime the post-election period is What is certain is that the Minister and vetoing bills for the Election Commission’s elections have not reduced amnesty that the House of solution to the complex the social polarization that Representatives approved. process of allocating party- Thaksin’s lower-class based The aim of the constitutional list seats. A result of the transformative politics and legal innovations of mix of confusion, subjective wrought on Thai society.

Focus on the Global South 22 JuLY 2019 accessed May 25, 2019. The orders. According to this view, a princess and the Thai Raksa large number of voters were not 1 Pavin Chachavalpongpun, “Thai Chart party claimed she could so much expressing support to Politics in the Post-Succession no longer be considered royalty NCPO as voting to please their Period,” in Religion and Politics since she had officially given up political patrons. in Southeast Asia (Seoul: Korean her royal titles. 20 Pravit Rojanaphruk, “Doubts Studies Association, 2017), p. 8 Quoted in ibid. over Election Commission’s Party 429. 9 Dave Kendall, “The Future List Allocations Grow,” Khaosud 2 Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris according to Rising Star English, April 8, 2019, http:// Baker, Thaksin (Chiang Mai: Thanathorn,” Bangkok Post, www.khaosodenglish.com/ Silkworm Books, 2009), p. 240. March 3, 2019, p. 3. politics/2019/04/08/doubts-over- 3 “More shadows than lights: 10 Ibid. election-commissions-party-list- human rights commitments of 11 He was president of a provincial allocations-grow/, accessed May Thai political parties,” Prachathai branch of the FTI, but this was 27, 2019. (English), March 22, 2019, mistakenly reported on the 21 This was the estimate of Future https://prachatai.com/english/ Future Forward site, a clerical Forward secretary general node/7983, accessed June 14, error that was admitted and Piyabutr Saengknokkul. “Pheu 2019. corrected. Thai Govt Hope on Ropes,” 4 “2014 Interim Constitution of 12 Asian Parliamentarians for Bangkok Post, May 9, 2019. Thailand,” Wikipedia, https:// Human Rights, “Thailand: 22 “Game of Seats,” Bangkok Post, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_ Regional MPs Urge End May 9, 2019, p. 1. This figure interim_constitution_of_Thailand, to Judicial Harassment of included the seats of two likely accessed May 25, 2019. Prominent Politician,” Jakarta, coalition allies that obtained a 5 Jintamas Saksornchai, “Prime May 25, 2019. total of 103 seats, the Democrats Minister not a Gov’t Official, 13 Forces of Renewal Southeast and the Bhumjaithai Party, a State Agency Rules,” Khaosod Asia, Fraud, Irregularities, populist party that sought to English, March 14, 2019, http:// and Dirty Tricks: A Report on legalize marijuana as a cash crop. www.khaosodenglish.com/ Thailand’s 2019 Elections, p. 16. 23 “EC Seat Move is Hijacking,” featured/2019/03/14/prime- 14 Ibid., p. 22. Bangkok Post, May 10, 2019, p. minister-not-a-govt-official-state- 15 Ibid., p. 23. 8. agency-rules/, accessed May 25, 16 Ibid., p. 21 24 Anonymous source, Bangkok, 2019. 17 Ibid., p. 31. June 13, 2019. 6 The TV program was earlier 18 The biggest reason for this was 25 Ibid. known as Khuen Khwamsuk that the Pheu Thai contested 26 Thitinan Pongsudhirak, “Anti- Hai Khon Nai Chat, or literally only 250 out of 350 seats so as Regime? Join the Opposition ‘Returning Happiness to People not to compete against Thai Ranks,” Bangkok Post, May 17, in the Nation’. Friday Night TV Raksa Chart, Pheu Tham , and 2019. Loses PM Monologues, Bangkok Pheu Chart, which were set up to 27 There is speculation that the Post, March 27, 2019, https:// hoover up party list votes. When military may, in fact, have www.bangkokpost.com/news/ Thai Raksa Chart got dissolved, an interest in indefinitely politics/1651520/friday-night-tv- this strategy left the suite of prolonging the formation of loses-pm-monologues, accessed parties short on popular votes a new government since the May 25, 2019. and hence party-list seats. Constitution allows the NCPO 7 “Thai Party that Nominated 19 An alternative analysis is that to be the government as a Princess for PM has been PPR engaged in traditional long as no government can Dissolved,” CNN, March 7, election practices and got the be put together. This would 2019, https://edition.cnn. backing of political “godfathers” allow it to continue to escape com/2019/03/07/asia/thailand- whose patronage networks parliamentary scrutiny and party-dissolved-intl/index.html, would deliver votes on their prolong its dictatorial rule.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 23 2 The Philippines Not Electoral Politics as Usual

The three years since the excitement and controversy? President Rodrigo Roa Duterte presidential elections of May Rodrigo Duterte, the confers with his children, 2016 had been the most authoritarian septuagenarian reelectionist Davao City Mayor tumultuous years politically who has achieved a degree Sara Duterte-Carpio and vice mayoral candidate Sebastian of the last three decades. of control over Philippine Duterte, during a campaign The years following the politics not seen since the sortie at the Davao City mid-term elections of May era of the dictator Ferdinand Recreation Center on May 10, 2019 promise more of the Marcos in the 1970’s and 2019. Photo by Richard Madelo/ same. The cause of all the 1980’s. Presidential Photo

Focus on the Global South 24 JuLY 2019 Background at above 7,000 as of early eliminationist rationale that 4 of the Elections: May 2017. An opposition reminds one of the pseudo- The Bloody War senator, Sonny Trillanes, citing scientific basis of Nazi racial on Drugs a government report, claimed theory. A whole sector of that based on an internal society has been unilaterally Duterte was elected president government report, the real stripped of their rights through nearly 40 percent number of deaths related to to life, due process, and of the votes in 2016. He the drug war over a year and membership in society. This 5 ran for the most part on a half was at least 20,322. category—drug users and platform of eliminating crime drug dealers—according to and drugs through draconian What is beyond doubt is Duterte comprises some three methods, his most famous (or that Duterte has brazenly to four million of the country’s notorious) statement being encouraged the extrajudicial population of 104 million. that he would “fatten all the killings and discouraged due He had written these people fish in Manila Bay” with the process. The very night he out of the human race. With bodies of criminals.1 While took his oath of office on rhetorical flourish, he told essentially a single-issue June 30, 2016, he told an the security forces: “Crime candidate, Duterte promised audience in one of Manila’s against humanity? In the first to do away with corruption, working-class communities, place, I’d like to be frank with lambasted the elite, and “If you know of any addicts, you: are they humans? What called himself a “socialist.” go ahead and kill them is your definition of a human He stayed on the law and yourselves as getting their being?” order issue, invoking his parents to do it would be too 6 record of cleaning up the painful.” In October 2016, Drug users are consigned southern city of Davao, where Duterte told the country, outside the borders of he had been mayor for the with characteristically sinister humanity since their brains better part of nearly three humor, that 20,000 to 30,000 have allegedly shrunk to decades. Duterte had been more lives might have to be the point that they are no accused of having maintained taken to cleanse the country longer in command of their a death squad that killed of drugs. Having learned faculties to will and think. hundreds of people in Davao,2 to take Duterte seriously In his speeches justifying and he was not shy in alluding even when he seems to the police killings “in self- to his extra-legal methods. be joking, many observers defense,” Duterte said that expect this figure to be an a year of more of the use of Since Duterte assumed underestimation. On another shabu—the local term for office in late June 2016, occasion, to any police officer meth or metamphetamine thousands of drug users have who might be convicted of hydrochloride—“would shrink been slain by the police or killing drug users without the brain of a person, and by vigilante groups linked justification, he offered an therefore he is no longer 8 to them, with the police immediate pardon “so you viable for rehabilitation.” admitting that 2,600 deaths can go after the people who 7 were attributable to police brought you to court.” These people are the “living operations while another dead,” the “walking dead,” 1,400 were the work of Duterte’s massive killing who are “of no use to society 9 vigilantes.3 Other, more of drug users has been anymore.” Not only do reliable sources put the figure underpinned by an these people turn to violent

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 25 crime to slake their drug for a number of years, Opposition Runs a habit, he said, but they are inflation rose in 2017 and Defensive Campaign paranoid and could resist hit a nine-year peak of arrest, putting the lives of 6.7 percent in October Despite these controversies, 10 police officers in danger. and November 2018, a the Philippines entered the development partly triggered 2019 campaign period with by the so-called TRAIN (Tax the president enjoying an Other Controversies Reform for Acceleration and amazing 81 percent approval Inclusion) Law that included rating, though this had The human cost of the war a 2.50 peso tax on a liter of variations by geography 11 on drugs was not the only gasoline. and economic status.14 This controversial issue facing had a big impact on the voters as the country entered Duterte’s brazen misogynistic way the opposition was the electoral campaign period remarks worried many that to conduct its campaign. of 2019. Especially alarming the president’s macho and The president’s popularity was what people saw as his patriarchal attitudes would set placed the opposition in a brazen assault on political back the gains of the women’s defensive position from the 12 rights, exemplified by the movement. Duterte’s very beginning instead of it indefinite imprisonment of neglect of the pursuit of the adopting the principle that his most vocal critic, Senator aspirations for autonomy of an aggressive offense was Leila de Lima, on fabricated the Moro people had helped the best defense. charges of being involved trigger the takeover of the in the drug trade and a Muslim city of Marawi by The head of the Liberal concerted effort to shut fanatics linked to ISIS and Party (LP), the core of the down Rappler, an internet led to its destruction in a elite opposition, defined news network critical of the military counteroffensive that the electoral strategy of the administration. left thousands homeless and party as “Project Makinig” 13 displaced. His declaration or “Listen to the People” Equally worrisome was what of martial law throughout project, with the aim of many regarded as Duterte’s Mindanao in May 2017 in consulting the voters on the assault on the separation response to the Marawi shortcomings of the party of powers. The Senate and crisis, many feared, would be while it was in power during House of Representatives a prelude to its imposition the previous administration, were turned by Duterte allies nationwide. and during and after the into pliable instruments 2016 elections.15 In the of the executive while his Then there was Duterte’s view of some observers, allies in the Supreme Court close relationship with China this effectively made the willingly cooperated with his and worries that loans from elections a referendum subordinates to summarily the latter would lead to a on the party than on the eject in 2018 the Chief “debt trap”; that Chinese president. Justice, Maria Lourdes investors were gaining Sereno, whose criticism had special privileges; and that Moreover, the marked angered Duterte. the administration was reluctance of the lead abandoning the country’s candidate, Mar Roxas, to There were other concerns. territorial rights in the West campaign with the rest of After being low and stable Philippine Sea. the opposition, apparently

Focus on the Global South 26 JuLY 2019 seeking to soften his image but the candidates were as an opponent of Duterte mainly seen as proxies for a and sell himself instead as popular president. For those an economist willing to work running the administration’s with the administration, campaign, a candidate’s was viewed by some as reputation was a secondary “downright demoralizing.”16 issue since they framed the One analyst observed, campaign as a referendum Individual candidates on the president. The like Chel Diokno, Florin president’s daughter, Sara Hilbay, Samira Gutoc, Duterte, expressed in a Gary Alejano, and Erin particularly brazen way the Tañada did well in virtual irrelevance of the television debates, but personalities and records of the opposition never the candidates.The young graduated from being Duterte, the campaign Despite these perceived as a ragtag manager of Hugpong, said group that did not pose that “honesty should not be controversies, a serious challenge to the an issue” in the elections.18 administration machine… That she was serious was the Philippines If the polls are showing evidenced by Hugpong’s entered the that it might be difficult inclusion in its Senate slate of for even one of them Imee Marcos, who had been 2019 campaign to reach the “Magic widely exposed as having 12,” they have partly fabricated her educational period with themselves to blame. credentials, and of Bong the president However much people Revilla and Jinggoy Estrada, might support what you who had spent time in jail for enjoying stand for, they will find it plundering the public till. difficult to identify with an amazing people who behave like The election results they’ve already lost.17 appeared to have proved 81 percent that Sara Duterte was approval right: in the elections The Administration’s honesty would be much rating, Triumphalist less important than the Campaign “tatak Duterte,” or Duterte though this brand. Despite their tainted The administration, on past, Marcos and Revilla had variations the other hand, waged a were elected. Even more by geography triumphalist campaign, riding telling were the impressive on the president’s popularity. victories of Bong Go, a and economic Two overlapping slates, PDP political neophyte whose -Laban and Hugpong ng only credential was his status. Pagbabago, ran with the being in the president’s administration’s blessings, inner circle and always

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 27 being photographed by them the universal • One interesting his side in public events, unpopularity of the main development was the and Ronaldo (“Bato”) de la opposition candidate, formation of a common Rosa, the former head of the Mar Roxas, whose elite front of candidates from Philippine National Police background, record the normally fractious who had served as the main in public service, and labor movement. implementer of Duterte’s personality militated Despite the lack of bloody war on drugs and against him getting a resources, Labor Win thus was roundly condemned seat in the Senate. waged an impressive by human rights activists. • At the local level, campaign focusing on dynastic politics bread and butter issues. prevailed, though there Interpreting were some bright spots: the Results Vico Sotto, who ran a Violence, Intimidation, progressive, issues-based and Harassment The results were a campaign, unseated the catastrophe for the gangster-like Eusebio Instances of violence were opposition: it was completely dynasty in the city of still observed during the shut out in the Senate, Pasig; Congresswoman campaign period, but making this the first time Kaka Bag-ao won apparently not as significant since the advent of the the governor’s race as that in recent past post-Marcos EDSA Republic in Dinagat province elections. As of May 12, the that an opposition slate in Mindanao; and eve of the elections, the was totally excluded from all members of the Commission on Elections the winners’ circle. There politically-entrenched recorded 43 incidents of were, however, interesting Ejercito family (headed election-related violence developments in the local by no less than former nationwide. Among the 73 contests. In its post-election President Joseph victims of these incidents, analysis on May 23, Focus on Estrada) lost in the local 20 were killed while 24 the Global South Philippines and national seats they were hurt.20 There was one team agreed on the following vied for. high-profile assassination, points:19 • The broad left was that of Congressman Rodel • The president’s dealt a setback, with Batocabe, who was killed, popularity was the the militant Makabayan along with his bodyguard, major factor explaining (Patriotic) Bloc losing1.5 while waiting at a bus stop. the overwhelming pro- million party-list votes Arrested for his murder was administration results, from its 2016 total and the mayor of Daraga, Albay, and not the stands on the social democratic whose alleged motivation issues and criminal party Akbayan losing its was to eliminate Batocabe as records of many of only seat in the House rival for the mayoralty in the those running for office, of Representatives. coming elections. especially in the Senate There was no race. consensus, however, There were apparently • There were, however, if this constituted a many cases of intimidation, some other contributory “repudiation of the left” some of them reported by elements, among by the electorate. candidates and followers of

Focus on the Global South 28 JuLY 2019 Ilocos Norte Governor Imee Marcos files her Certificate of Candidacy (COC) for senator at the Commission on Elections in Manila with her brother, former Senator Bongbong Marcos; both have been in hot water owing to false claims about their educational credentials, October 15, 2018. Photo by Avito C. Dalan/Philippine News Agency. Retrieved from Wikimedia Commons (https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bongbong_Marcos_and_Imee_Marco_COC_2019_elections_filing.jpg), marked as public domain.

the opposition. According to But the most brazen elections, as seen in his Senator Francisco Pangilinan, instances of intimidation and government’s peace one report said that “people harassment were deployed negotiations with them and were facing real, even by the administration against the cabinet positions given violent, threats just for being parties associated with the to them. The negotiations associated with LP [Liberal left-wing Makabayan Bloc. fell apart soon enough, with Party].” Pangilinan said that Even before the elections, the military being perceived some ended up in Duterte’s the administration and as dead set against any narco list; meanwhile the the military had subjected deal with the Communist house of a mayor in Davao the bloc and its network Party and the New People’s was supposedly strafed. of mass organizations to Army.22 In March 2018, a red-tagging campaign, the military got the Justice “So there is a real threat to a complete turnaround in Department to declare some being a member of the party Duterte’s warm attitude 600 people said to be linked in the grassroots,” Pangilinan towards the militant left with the CPP and NPA as was quoted as saying.21 shortly after the 2016 “terrorists.”23

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 29 Map shows roughly how many pro-administration candidates for the Senate won per province. Photo by Brentiusatticus. Retrieved from Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Philippine_2019_Senate_Elections_Results_for_HNP.png), “Philippine 2019 Senate Elections Results for HNP”, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode

Focus on the Global South 30 JuLY 2019 During the campaign period cheating nor vote-buying, why the voters endorsed a itself, an e-poster on the though the consensus president who had brazenly Facebook page of the Armed seemed to be that these promoted impunity. One Forces of the Philippines traditional features of analyst, borrowing from Civil Relations Service Philippine electoral politics Max Weber, said that under branded the Makabayan were also not insignificant Duterte, the Philippines had Bloc as the “legal front” of factors. (Duterte did say, moved from the realm of the Communist Party of the vote-buying was an “integral “democratic politics as usual” Philippines and its armed part” of Philippine elections)26 to the “Brave New World” of wing, the New People’s Army The elections, though, was “charismatic politics.”28 He and urged the public “not clear about on one thing— wrote: to return” representatives of that the president had a In times of crisis, there the member-parties of the massive mandate. Some is a desperate need for Makabayan Bloc in Congress commentators could not people to believe in in the May 13 elections. restrain themselves from something and someone. In response, Makabayan blaming the voters, as did And after putting up with charged the Armed Forces one respected progressive what they viewed as the with violation of Section 261 journalist: corruption, incompetence, of the Omnibus Election We have most of the and hypocrisy of previous Code, which prohibits voters to blame for it. administrations, a great government officials from They’re the millions who part of the electorate has coercing or intimidating approve of mass killings, placed its faith in Duterte their subordinates to vote who’re indifferent to to lead them to the for or against candidates the violations of human promised land. for public office.24 The rights, who despise poster, Makabayan claimed, intelligence and who’ve A disgruntled middle threatened the safety of its never read a book. They class that had high candidates and campaigners disparage democracy hopes in the post-Marcos and sought “to cripple without knowing what it “Edsa Republic” and felt and thus sabotage the is and approve of tyranny betrayed by its failure to campaign and election of because they can’t tell the deliver on its promises is the Makabayan in the Lower difference. Miseducated the driving force of what is House and the Senate with and misled, it is they essentially an insurgency the dirty and dangerous tactic who, wallowing in their against liberal democracy, of red-baiting.”25 apathy, corruption and a force that is sweeping ignorance, elect every most of the rest of the three years the same country along with it.29 The Advent of oligarchs and dynasts that “Charismatic Politics”? made them what they are: A key feature of politics in the instruments of their the current period is said Many observers, however, own misery, and their own to be “the willingness of were not convinced that worst enemies.27 people to hold their critical violence and intimidation faculties in abeyance and played a decisive role in Such opinion, while allow themselves to be swept determining the electoral understandable, still away by the hope that an results; and that neither did begged the question of authoritarian leader will lead

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 31 Administration and allied the country into a future that manipulation to stay in “independents” 12; he himself has only vague power. In contrast, Duterte Opposition 0. ideas about.”30 It is this has derived legitimacy Photo by Jess M. Escaros element that distinguishes from his popularity, with Jr./Philippine News Agency. Duterte from his authoritarian repression serving mainly as Retrieved from Wikimedia predecessor Marcos. an adjunct. Commons (https:// Without the charisma that commons.wikimedia.org/ could have added to his It is anticipated that with the wiki/File:PROCLAMATION_ legitimacy, Marcos relied mandate coming from the OF_SENATORS_2019.jpg), mainly on repression elections, Duterte’s pet bills marked as public domain. and blatant electoral would be passed in short

Focus on the Global South 32 JuLY 2019 order, namely the bills on solely on the strength of federalism, death penalty, the president’s personal 1 “President Rodrigo Duterte in and the lowering of the age endorsement. Quotes,” BBC, Sept. 30, 2016, of criminal responsibility to https://www.bbc.com/news/ world-asia-36251094, accessed 12. The president’s critics are The popularity of the May 28, 2019. also worried about how he president, on the other 2 “You Can Die Anytime: Death will use this newly-renewed hand, cowed the opposition, Squad Killings in Mindanao,” Human Rights Watch, mandate at the polls to so that even if some of its undated, https://www.hrw.org/ shape his rule towards a candidates had performed report/2009/04/06/you-can-die- more authoritarian direction. well in television debates, any-time/death-squad-killings- As in 2016, the irony is how for the most part they ran a mindanao 3 Aurora Almendral, “The General a democratic exercise has defensive campaign, led by Running Duterte’s Anti-Drug been the means to reduce an unpopular candidate who War,” New York Times, June democratic checks on power. symbolized elitism, arrogance, 2, 2017, http://www.nytimes. and incompetence. The com/2017/06/02/world/asia/ the-general-running-dutertes- 12-0 outcome was the worst antidrug-war.html, accessed Aug Conclusion showing for an opposition 18, 2018. bloc in a mid-term election 4 “The Philippines’ Drug War As the Philippines neared since the late ‘80s. Death Denial Complex,” Human Rights Watch, May the mid-term elections of 9, 2017, https://hrw.org/ 2019, it became clear that it There were many instances news/2017/05/09/philippines- would serve as a referendum of violence, intimidation, drug-war- deaths-denial- on President Duterte and and harassment during the complex, accessed Aug 18, 2018. The Philippine Drug his policies. While the campaign period, but they Enforcement Agency’s own controversial bloody war could not negate the reality count had the death toll at 5,050 on drugs was the central of massive voter-approval for as of Nov 2018. http://pdea. issue on which Duterte was Duterte and his policies. gov.ph/2-uncategorised/279- realnumbersph supposed to be judged, also 5 Ted Regencia, “Senator: Rodrigo important were the state The election results are now Duterte’s Drug War Has Killed of the economy, his assault being seen as indication that 20,000,” Al Jazeera, Feb 22, on individual rights and the the fundamental character 2018, http://www.aljazeera. com/ news/2018/02/senator- separation of powers, his and dynamics of Philippine rodrigo-duterte-drug- war- misogynism, the country’s politics have shifted; one killed-20000-180221134139202. relations with China, and the interpretation being that html, accessed Sept 10, 2018. political crisis in Mindanao. the country has moved from Human Rights Watch places the number at 22,000 plus already. democratic politics-as-usual https://www.hrw.org/world- The administration’s to “charismatic politics,” report/2019/country-chapters/ campaign was so focused on meaning that citizens are philippines Duterte that the individual willing to hold their critical 6 Statement at solidarity dinner at Del Pan Sports Complex, records of those running for faculties in abeyance to July 1, 2016, in I-Defend, “End the Senate were seen to be support a strong leader, Impunity, Stand Up for Human of secondary importance. A though it may not be clear Rights, Uphold Due Process,” number of administration what future this leader has to Aug. 12, 2016. 7 Speech before a conference candidates were tainted with offer. Ironically, a democratic of local government officials, corruption and mischief, exercise resulted in the further carried over DZRH Radio, March and some were running undermining of democracy. 14, 2017.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 33 8 Quoted In Marichu Villanueva, leaders/229832-analysis-jolt-we- https://news.abs-cbn.com/ “Duterte Likens Addicts all-need-elections-2019?fbclid= news/05/13/19/duterte-says- to Zombies,” Philippine IwAR0t85KikRfZTsKeUKOUHtG vote-buying-integral-part-of- Star, Aug. 24, 2016, zPThGG6JDUANx0bMHJqKSx- elections, accessed May 30, https://www.philstar.com/ wFWxkYdGx5DpY, accessed May 2019. opinion/2016/08/24/1616655/ 29, 2019. 27 Luis Teodoro, “Information duterte-likens-drug-addicts- 17 Ibid. “Magic 12” is a reference Disorder,” http://www. zombies, accessed Sept 10, to the 12 Senate seats that were luisteodoro.com/information-di 2018. being competed for. sorder/?fbclid=IwAR0UHljNN 9 Ibid. 18 “Sara Duterte: Honesty Should nfNrHYqGoEVqfLKqMXXb9 10 Ibid. not be an Election Issue,” HTH53Q_-YLg4Xv69MXXVz_ 11 Joseph Purugganan, “The ABS/CBN, March 3, 2019, nnXYmqQ, accessed May 19, Price of Taming Inflation,” in https://news.abs-cbn.com/ 2019. Critical Junction: Derailing or news/03/06/19/sara-duterte- 28 Aika Rey, “Bello: Philippines in Accelerating the Dictatorship honesty-should-not-be-an- ‘brave new world’ of politics Express, Policy Review, Vol 7, No election-issue, accessed May 29, under Duterte,” Rappler, 1, pp. 20-21. 2019. May 25, 2019, https://www. 12 See Bianca Martinez, “Misogyny, 19 Discussion, Focus on the Global rappler.com/nation/politics/ Neoliberalism, and Despotism,” South Philippine Office, Quezon elections/2019/231515- in Critical Junction…, pp. 60-68. City, March 23, 2019. walden-bello-philippines- 13 See Galil de Guzman Castillo, 20 “At Least 20 Killed in Election- brave-new-world-politics- “Kalinaw sa Mindanao: Just and related Violence since December duterte?fbclid=IwAR0Pcco- Lasting Peace in the Land of 2018,” Rappler, May 13, 2019, 9VHf52quD8Kc6a5yXFeIY- Promise,” in Critical Junction…, https://www.rappler.com/nation/ FfLybqT2tfhc_ pp. 69-76. politics/elections/2019/230430- LWBBHSNde1fxJBCo, 14 “Duterte Approval, Trust Ratings killed-election-related-violence- accessed May 29, 2019. Climb End-2018: Pulse Asia comelec, accessed May 29, Weber distinguished between survey,” ABS/CBN, June 11, 2019. “traditional authority,” “rational- 2019, https://news.abs-cbn. 21 Cepeda. legal authority,” and “charismatic com/news/01/11/19/duterte- 22 See Carmela Fonbuena, authority.” In the case of approval-trust-ratings-climb-end- “Duterte Breaks with Reds,” charismatic domination or 2018-pulse-asia-survey, accessed Rappler, Dec. 23, 2018, https:// authority, according to Weber, May 28, 2019.His highest trust www.rappler.com/newsbreak/ the “power of command may and approval ratings came from in-depth/219494-generals- be exercised by a leader— Mindanao (96) and the relatively coup-duterte-breaks-up-with- whether he is a prophet, hero, more affluent Class ABC (87). communists-yearend-2018, or demagogue—who can prove Duterte’s lowest trust and accessed May 29, 2019. that he possesses charisma approval ratings came from NCR 23 Ibid. by virtue of magical powers, (69) and Class D (78), where most 24 Norman Bordadera, “Makabayan revelations, heroism, or other voters come from. Bloc Files Election Complaint extraordinary gifts. The persons 15 Mara Cepeda, “Liberal Party vs. Lorenzana, AFP generals,” who obey such a leader are now “Listens” to the People GMA News, April 17, 2019, disciples or followers who It Ignored,” Rappler, Feb 10, https://www.msn.com/en-ph/ believe in his extraordinary 2019, https://www.rappler.com/ news/election/makabayan- qualities rather than in the newsbreak/profiles/222759- bloc-files-election-complaint- stipulated rules or in the dignity liberal-party-project-makinig- vs-lorenzana-afp-generals/ of a position sanctified by listening-campaign, accessed ar-BBW12B3?li=BBUEAJW, tradition.” Reinhard Bendix, Max May 29, 2019. accessed May 29, 2019. Weber: An Intellectual Portrait 16 Walden Bello, “2019 Elections: 25 Ibid. (Berkeley: University of California The Jolt We All Need,” 26 “Duterte Says Vote Buying Press, 1977), p. 295. Rappler, May 7, 2019, https:// ‘Integral’ Part of Elections, ABS/ 29 Bello. www.rappler.com/thought- CBN News, May 13, 2019, 30 Ibid.

Focus on the Global South 34 JuLY 2019 3 India In the Grip of Charismatic Politics

Given the huge numbers of candidates ran for a total of voters, around 900 million, 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, national elections in India the lower house of the were carried out in seven national parliament. To form Narendra Modi at a rally phases in more than six a government, a party or a in Goa. Source: https:// weeks in April and May coalition needed to win 272 www.flickr.com/photos/ 2019. More than 8,000 seats. joegoauk72/31758133123/

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 35 Before the counting of the expected to emerge much ideology of “Hindutva” (best ballots on May 23, there was weaker. The desperate mood translated as “Hinduness”) much speculation that the that engulfed those critical of were marginal players in ruling Bharatiya Janata Party Modi was captured in these post-independence politics. (BJP) would win a substantial words of one academic, who Deriving its prestige from number of seats but that it claimed that his victory was: the role it had played in the would not be able to gain an a moment of dread for struggle for independence outright majority as in 2014. Indian democracy. Let against the British under the Indeed, the BJP might have us be clear. This is the moral inspiration of Mahatma to rely on its allied parties to greatest concentration of Gandhi and the political form a government. power in modern Indian leadership of Jawaharlal history. Never has a force Nehru, the Congress Party Conditions leading up to emerged, not even the dominated the politics of the elections appeared to Congress under Jawaharlal post-independence India for be inauspicious for Prime Nehru and Indira Gandhi, three decades. Minister Narendra Modi and where a leader had such his party: the annual growth unchallenged power in the While there were instances rate was down to 5.8 percent; party, a party organisation when it resorted to communal the economic crisis triggered this energised, complete politics for its own ends, by “demonetization,” control over capital, and for the most part, Congress which involved the sudden a vast set of civil society espoused the vision of withdrawal from circulation organisations that are an India that was secular, of 500 and 1000 rupee notes poised for dominance in democratic, and diverse. representing 86 percent of the every institution in every As Nehru had put it in his value of circulating currency, corner of the country. speech on India’s achieving was not over; farmers’ India’s fate is now truly in independence in 1948: “All marches reminded the country his hands.2 of us, to whatever religion of the crisis in agriculture; and we may belong, are equally violence spawned by Hindu the children of India with nationalism had become Before the Elections equal rights, privileges and commonplace. obligations. We cannot The BJP’s coming to power encourage communalism or After the votes were through an outright majority narrow-mindedness, for no counted, the whole country win in the elections of 2014 nation can be great whose was stupefied. The BJP represented a turnaround people are narrow in thought expanded its majority to 303 in the post-Independence or in action.”3 seats, up by 20 from its 2014 politics of India. tally. Congress, the main On the critical issue of the opposition party, was badly A few decades earlier, Hindu-Muslim religious beaten, emerging with only the hegemony of the divide, Gandhi and Nehru 52 seats and with its leader Hindu nationalist right had pushed for a one- Rahul Gandhi losing in his would not have only been state solution in the period own constituency, Amethi, in regarded as improbable leading up to the British Uttar Pradesh.1 Modi came but unthinkable. While departure, but the chaos out much stronger from an not exactly at the fringe, that accompanied the latter election where he had been groups associated with the saw communal hatred and

Focus on the Global South 36 JuLY 2019 violence drive the process, of the 2014 parliamentary leading to the establishment elections, which saw Congress of India, where the Hindus getting a much reduced were in the majority, and 44 seats in the national The BJP’s Pakistan, which emerged parliament, while the BJP not only as Muslim-majority gained an absolute majority coming state but would subsequently of 282 seats. This was a define itself as an Islamic veritable revolution, or more to power state.4 Notwithstanding accurately, counterrevolution. through an the Partition, the Indian The peaceful democratic constitution, which the competition, pluralism, and outright Constituent Assembly secularism that post-war India adopted on November 26, had been known for was seen majority 1949 and came into effect on by many as in grave danger January 26, 1950, cemented of becoming history. win in the “this inclusive and democratic elections objective of keeping In the next few years, Modi government equidistant did not disappoint in fulfilling of 2014 from all the religions of the aspirations of his followers India’s religiously diverse and confirming the fears of represented 5 population.” his critics. a turnaround Hindu nationalism, for its Hindutva—Modi’s beliefs from the post- part, was regarded by many and politics—was anathema Indians as backward looking, to a pluralistic, secular, and Independence its appeal largely confined democratic India. Before to the central regions of the moving to a discussion of politics of country, the Hindi heartland. the issues, conduct, results, India. Moreover, the Rashtriya and consequences of the Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) 2019 elections, it would be and other Hindu nationalist useful to say a few words groupings were plunged into on the fundamental tenets disrepute when a former RSS and organization of Hindu member, Nathuram Godse, nationalism. was sent to the gallows for the assassination on January 30, 1948 of Mahatma Gandhi, Hindutva an act in which their chief ideologue,Vinayak Damodar Hindutva, according to Savarkar, was implicated, Savarkar, the most influential though acquitted. Hindu fundamentalist ideologue, is the fundamental The shocking role reversal, essence of being Hindu. As from a hegemonic Congress pointed out by Sathianathan to a hegemonic Hindu right, Clarke, this “essence” was evident in the results consists first of an intimate

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 37 BJP rally in Gujarat. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Man_wearing_a_Narendra_Modi_ mask_at_an_election_rally_in_Gujarat.jpg

sense of belonging to a that courses through from Western Orientalism, the sacred geography, to a our veins and keeps our Judaic idea of religion and motherland—Hindustan. hearts throbbing and our the fascist ideals of cultural Second, Hindutva binds all affections warm, but also nationalism.”8 those of the motherland by the ties of common together by a common blood, homage we pay to our Like all fundamentalist seeing the diverse peoples great civilization—our ideologies, Hindutva makes of India as parts of a race Hindu culture…We are exorbitant claims, saying that shares the inheritance one because we are a that the Vedic teachings, of the Vedic ancestor. Third, nation, a race, and own formulated circa 1500 to 500 Hindutva asserts that as a common Sanskriti BCE, already contain the the biological community (civilization).7 advances of modern science, devoted to this sacred land, asserting that ancient Hindus all Hindus share a common As noted by scholars like K. developed plastic surgery and culture, one that is the cradle Satchidanandan, Hindutva is flew airplanes.9 of all civilizations.6 As an attempt to deny the many Savarkar put it: cultural streams that made If it were just a question of We Hindus are bound Indian civilization so dynamic exaggerated claims about together not only by the and create an artificial the achievements of the ties of love we bear to a monolithic unity of Hinduness, Hindu ancients, Hindu common fatherland and one that is actually “a colonial fundamentalism would not by the common blood construct borrowing elements be so controversial. But

Focus on the Global South 38 JuLY 2019 Hindutva was articulated by of 80 percent of India’s and local level, Hindutva Savarkar and his followers population that are Hindu. has had a highly ideological within a narrative of The liberal state’s doctrine organization on the ground victimhood, whereby “Muslim of separation of Church and that eventually has spawned invaders and rulers” of all State is said to be hypocritical a network of closely related stripes including Afghans, since it protects the rights of groups—the RSS, which is Turks, Persians, and Mughals, religious minorities; it must essentially a paramilitary then the Christian British, thus be abandoned and the organization. The complex subjugated, repressed, and state must serve the ends of of organizations that the RSS divided the Hindu nation.10 the religious majority. has developed has come Thus, Hindutva was a project to be known as the Sangh of reclaiming the Hindus’ Achieving justice has also Parivar, or Syndicate, while collective identity, creating been reformulated to mean the two key organizations a Hindu government, and rectifying the historical in this universe, which have restoring the glory of a culture injustice done to the Hindu complementary functions of from the depredations of majority by Muslim and “filling” the Indian national alien forces, mainly Muslims Christian alien invaders, space and civil space, are the but also including Christians, who continue to enjoy the BJP and the Vishva Hindu westernized liberals, and privilege of being protected Parishad (VHP). Marxists. by the state. “Hindutva ‘justice’ can only be figured In forging this relationship Savarkar and his followers through a reversal of time (the between a “vanguard” fashioned Hindutva into an destruction of the medieval organization and subordinate exclusionary ideology and monument), the assimilation mass organizations, the Hindu movement that justified or erasure of minority identity, right probably copied the violence against the or the (seemingly brahminical) organizational methods of the representatives of alien forces requirement that the state Marxist left. Whatever may residing in the homeland, and minorities be compelled be the case, Achin Vanaik is namely the Muslim and to recognize, distinguish, and right to emphasize that the Christian communities. As honor Hindus.”12 existence of RSS’s disciplined one analyst put it,“ “India’s cadres is what distinguishes fundamentalists were the Hindu nationalists from radicalized by anger over the The Hindu Nationalist other right-wing movements, past and fear for the future.”11 Organizational such as the pro-Duterte and Complex pro-Bolsonaro groups in The concept of democracy, the Philippines and Brazil, the relationship of the state Not only do the Hindu respectively.13 to religion, and justice, which nationalists have a militant are traditional mainstays ideology and a shared Founded in 1980, the BJP of liberal democracy, have psychology, they also is the principal mechanism been reformulated to fit the developed the organizational of the Hindu nationalists Hindutva paradigm. Thus, capacity to put it into action. in competing for political since democracy is the rule Unlike Congress which has a power in India’s democratic of the majority, this means it more secular ideology that parliamentary system. The must serve as an instrument rests unsteadily on patronage VHP, translated as the World for promoting the interests mechanisms at the regional Council of Hindus, was

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 39 created in 1964 to bring mind, and intellect” of who today belong to the all Hindu sects under the each Hindu adult and Muslim and Christian faiths common agenda of creating child. This dislocates are reduced to standing in an Indian nation-state. The traditional understandings for the Invader, the Plunderer, VHP is described as having of family, community, civil the Desecrator, and are “gone beyond the tight society and nation in order positioned as treasonable vanguardist structure of the to replace them with a subjects to be disciplined and originary RSS, and thereby vitalist, organismic (and suborned within the nation- made communalism (and arguably quasi-eugenicist) state.”19 Along with Muslims communal conflict centered conception of society and and Christians, liberal and around politically constructed nation.16 progressive intellectuals are identities) into a mass force.”14 denounced as “sikularlibtards” While the BJP focuses on While the BJP is given room on Facebook and Twitter; winning the competition to maneuver owing to the the chief of the RSS in 1999 within the current political necessities of alliance politics referred to these people as system, the VHP and RSS and political timing, the Sangh that “class of bastards which are working hand-in-hand to Parivar, or “Syndicate” of tries to implant an alien culture bring about a more strategic Hindu organizations, expects in our land.”20 Intellectuals, aim, which is to “transform the BJP to deliver on its artists, and journalists who not only the content of the immediate demands: legislate dare to criticize Hindutva entire Indian political culture, that Muslims and Christians and its practitioners are but also the legitimate form must be incorporated into the intimidated, if not murdered. of that culture.”15 As one common civil code instead academic puts it: of allowing them to live their With Muslims, Christians, This includes changing the family lives according to liberal intellectuals, and nature of the public sphere their own traditions;17 end Marxists seen as fifth and its forms of political the special status of Kashmir, column, violence against discourse, the quality India’s only state with a Muslim them is constrained only of the relation between majority; and complete the by public opinion, which nationalism, the state, and construction of a Hindu can eventually be changed democratic citizenship, the temple on the site of the old by legal criminal sanctions, boundaries between legal mosque of Babri Masjid in the imposition or severity and extralegal spheres, Ayodhya, which was destroyed of which depends on who the deepest layers of by its militants in 1992.18 is in power. For the Hindu personal and civil society, right, It is also important to and the nature of civic The last demand reveals devise arrangements to keep association, solidarity, and the uncompromising violence at an arms-length mass participation. A key ideological character of of the main organizations aim of the RSS and VHP Hindu nationalism, which of the Sangh Parivar. Thus, is to conflate political is essentially a politics of the VHP has spawned a and civic citizenship, vendetta whereby “the number of organizations while transforming the political and social trajectories that are tied to it yet enjoy understanding of both of the Sultanate and British a measure of autonomy, like through a long-term aim rule are not only constructed the Bajrang Dal and Hindu to patiently but wholly as a fall from an original state Jagran Manch, both of transform the “body, of purity, but the citizens which have been implicated

Focus on the Global South 40 JuLY 2019 in “spectacular forms of in 1992 based on the claim violence against religious that it had been built on a minorities.”21 Ideological temple of Lord Ram in the affinity coupled with this 16th century, for which there distanced organizational is limited historical evidence. relationship allows what has The Gujarat riots of 2002, been called the “genocidal” an orgy of killing, mainly of VHP which aims “to distance Muslims, triggered by the itself from these newly named deaths of 59 Hindu pilgrims organizations while providing returning to Gujarat from the gestatory womb for Ayodhya, would overshadow them.”22 the Babri Masjid incident. This systematic two-month- One of the most spectacular long deadly massacre of cases of Hindu nationalist Muslims in response to the RSS militants violence against religious killing of the pilgrims have march in Bhopal. minorities was the destruction struck many as methodical, Source: https://commons. of the Babri Masjid mosque well thought out, and carried wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Path_ by Hindu militants in Ayodhya out with the support of the Sanchalan_Bhopal-1.jpg

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 41 state whose chief minister into the low-paid informal paved. The next five years, then was Narendra Modi.23 sector. In 2011, Gujarat had however, proved to be Modi’s role has been much the third lowest level of wages rocky. The economy was debated, but it cannot be for casual labor, the reason one problem, especially in denied that “the Sangh why many industries flocked to the year preceding the 2019 parivar…was well prepared the state.25 polls. After hitting a high of and well-rehearsed to carry eight percent in the middle out the murderous, brutal, It was not only India’s of 2018,27 growth slid down and sadistic attacks on Muslim bourgeoisie that was captured in the latter part of the year, men, women, and children.”24 by the image of a dynamic hitting 5.8 percent in March Indian economy breaking of this year. This resulted in free from the shackles of the highest unemployment BJP Economics “Indian socialism” associated rate in four decades, 6.1 with Congress. The percentat the end of fiscal The BJP’s appeal resides not “privileging of urban India year 2018.28 only in its militant advocacy associated with the ‘rise’ of that Hindu identity must be information technology and A key factor that depressed seen as the central factor business services sector as growth was the so-called determining political belief the most dynamic of the demonetization of the and behavior. Its continuation economy,”26 also won over currency in November 2016. of the neoliberal policies the middle classes to the The aims of demonetization, that Congress initiated in BJP. These included the large which involved the sudden the 1990’s has also won it “aspirational” middle class withdrawal of currency notes the support of the dominant that may not have qualified as of 500 and 1000 rupee sectors of the Indian capitalist middle class in terms of actual denominations, were to class. Modi, in fact, has income level but saw middle render useless money in the captured the imagination class status as a goal made hands criminal syndicates and of both local and foreign possible by the policies of tax evaders, and encourage investors with his promotion of Modi and the BJP. Satisfying digital payments. The the so-called “Gujarat model” the material interests and move failed in attaining its of growth. Under Modi, the aspirations of these sectors goals, but the effects were state has had a high rate of have had an added but critical disruptive. According to growth and been friendly to effect: it has opened the the International Monetary investors, providing them with ethically sterile rich and the Fund, “The impact on growth tax breaks and eliminating middle classes to the ideology appears to have been more or loosening restrictions of Hindu nationalism. severe and longer-lasting governing labor, pollution, than anticipated with a and the acquisition of land. disproportionate impact on Yet investment has been Prelude to the the informal sector.”29 In capital-intensive, resulting 2019 Elections: agriculture, “demonetization in jobless growth, with The Issues aggravated the sector’s formal employment growing existing stress points by minimally (+0.3) in the boom At the beginning of its creating new choke points periods 1999-2000 and 2009- five-year term in 2014, the within the supply-chain. 2010. With few new jobs in BJP’s road to hegemony Cash is a critical input in the formal sector, people went appeared to have been the agricultural production

Focus on the Global South 42 JuLY 2019 process and its unexpected in the last four years on harassment, and attacked shortage had an impact at suspicion of slaughtering, by police. Civil society many levels, including a skinning, or transporting leaders associated with slowdown in employment of cattle, are Muslims.33 Hatred secular values have been labor and a dip in overall farm against Muslims has been assassinated. Statues of incomes.”30 Demonetization, deliberately cultivated by leaders associated with the opposition assumed, false claims like Muslims secularism have been torn had contributed to the rising engaging in “love jihad,” that down.36 indebtedness of farmers, is, seducing and Islamizing which was a major cause of Hindu girls, so that they can Three members of the secular the phenomenon of “farmers’ give birth to more Muslims intelligentsia have been suicides.” in order to eventually tip the assassinated in the last few demographic balance in their years: Marxist intellectual Another major issue that the favor.34 Govind Padharinath Pansare, opposition seized on was the the playwright Malleshappa fact that instead of a unifier, Despite efforts to tweak Kalburgi, and the crusading Modi had been a divisive or rhetorically “soften” journalist Gauri Lankesh.37 figure whose nationalist Hinduism’s doctrinal bias Many have been intimidated rhetoric encouraged violence. against lower caste groups into silence, while those who This claim was not, however, and enlist them in the continue to speak out are simple electioneering on the struggle against Muslims and subjected to cyber vitriol, like part of the BJP’s opponents. Christians, Hindu nationalist author Arundhati Roy, whom Under Modi, India had violence against Dalits and one BJP MP said should be descended into violence. Adivasis spread under the used as a human shield by BJP regime, one instance the Indian Army in Kashmir.38 While nothing of the being a much publicized scale of the 2002 pogrom killing in Modi’s home state “The Modi regime wields far in Gujarat has occurred of Gujarat of a Dalit for greater legal and extra-legal since Modi took office, riding a horse.35 Moreover, coercive power than enjoyed violence against Muslims sectarianism aside: by any ruling party in post- has become routinized and [t]he Modi era is independence India,” notes normalized.31 According witnessing concerted one critic. “It uses every to human rights crusader assaults on dissent not possible constitutional-legal Harsh Mander, Muslims seen since the 1975–77 power sans the constraints are “today’s castaways, Emergency. Laws against imposed by democratic political orphans with no sedition have been used conventions: dismissal of home…[against whom] open to arrest student union unfriendly state governments, expressions of hatred and leaders for protesting the use of CBI [Central Bureau bigotry have become the execution of a convicted of Investigation] and other new normal, from schools terrorist. The same laws investigative agencies to universities, work places facilitated the arrest and, of course, the use to living rooms, internet to of Muslims accused of of armed forces. This is political rallies.”32 Most of cheering for Pakistan supplemented by the use the more than 40 people in a cricket match. of state apparatus for extra- reported in newspapers to Journalists have been legal coercive measures: have been victims of lynching killed, subjected to legal harassment and persecution

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 43 BJP rally in Amethi, Uttar Pradesh, the Gandhi family stronghold that fell to the Hindu nationalists in the 2019 elections. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supporter_of_Bharatiya_Janata_ Party_at_an_election_rally_in_Amethi.jpg

of political and ideological the slaughter or transport of took 47 lives and displaced adversaries, protection cows, which are invested with 40,000 people.40 to vigilante groups, and a sacred identity by hardline the misuse of anti-terror Hindus. These cases of Lynching is not an aberration laws. The most pernicious lynching have been gruesome or deviation from their aspect of the BJP’s use of affairs, with the attackers political project, as senior coercive state apparatus is usually filming the incidents BJP and regime officials the silent, everyday form of and circulating them on the are wont to claim. In fact, surveillance, intimidation, and internet. In this connection, lynching, writes Ashok infiltration.”39 the use of information Swain, serves the function technology to spread and of enforcing “inter-group While the use of the state’s promote lynching and riots control and to keep the idea security forces has been an is a practice that the Hindu and practice of upper-caste important element in the right has become particularly Hindu domination.” In this Hindu right’s repertoire of adept at, with devastating context, it does not matter repression and violence, mob consequences, as when the whether the victim is guilty violence plays a special role. uploading of a fake video of wrongdoing or not—the Lynching has usually been by a BJP legislator in Uttar lynching serves a larger carried out by Hindu mobs Pradesh purportedly showing political objective.41 inflamed by rumors about a Muslim mob murdering a the identity or actions of the Hindu youth provoked riots in In addition to the state of the victims, usually in relation to the city of Muzaffarnagar that economy and the spread of

Focus on the Global South 44 JuLY 2019 violence, another issue that against the members of the the elections, contended that the opposition has banked scheduled castes (SCs) and “Overall…India’s farmers are on is Hindu nationalist tribes (STs) had previously doing far better than many discrimination against Dalits been denied bail. realize.”43 and Adivasis, the so-called One way to gauge “untouchables” and “tribals” Finally, the opposition the well-being of rural constituting some 20 percent pinned their hopes on the households is to look at of the population. continued inability of the BJP how much they’re buying: to extend its appeal beyond They now account for 45 Many in these sectors, who the so-called “cowbelt” or percent of the fast-moving have been systematically traditional Hindustan. As consumer goods sector in discriminated against in one critic put it, “Its electoral India. This is remarkable traditional Hindu culture, dominance peters out at given the vast disparity have increasingly discovered the geographical and the in disposable incomes that the BJP and the Hindu social peripheries. The BJP between urban and rural nationalists are deadly serious is not a serious contender in households, and it implies about reversing their gains Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra that improvements in rural in terms of improving their Pradesh, Telangana, West infrastructure, connectivity political, economic, and Bengal and smaller states like and digitization are cultural status in the secular, Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya, translating into higher pluralistic Indian order that is Nagaland and, of course, the demand. Over the last now threatened. Kashmir Valley.”42 three years, rural sales grew significantly faster Not only has the BJP been than urban sales in aggressively challenging Implications of the both volume and value; affirmative action policies Election Results consumption growth that rectify historical injustice, currently stands at a the Modi government’s With the election results robust 9.7 percent.44 strict implementation of cow in, there has been much protection laws has also discussion of how Modi and Contrary to expectations, the exposed Dalits and Adivasis the BJP were able to defuse 2019 results show that the engaged in the cattle industry the various issues that had BJP performed much better throughout India to violence threatened a negative vote than Congress in rural areas; from upper caste Hindu for the BJP. Congress, in fact, performed mobs. Moreover, even a key much worse in places with law meant to protect Dalits Rural Voters the highest share of rural from violence, the 1989 SC/ population.45 ST Prevention of Atrocities A closer look at the statistics Act, has now been gutted related to agriculture shows An important contributor to as a result of the Supreme a situation very different from the BJP’s ability to win rural Court of India’s recent ruling when “rural India” threw out voters was the unrolling barring immediate arrest of the first BJP-led government before the elections of what those accused of violence of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in critics called a “handout against SCs and STs. Under 2004 for its prioritization of program,” the PM-Kisan this law, anyone accused the needs of “urban India.” scheme that would give 6000 of committing an atrocity One analysis, done before rupees a year to hundreds

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 45 of thousands of small and the Supreme Court’s dilution where populations of these marginal farmers up to two of the 1989 SC/ST Prevention communities are higher. hectares of cultivable land.46 of Atrocities Act referred to Though this does not earlier and indeed pushed to automatically mean members Fighting for the Dalit strengthen it.49 of those communities voted and Adivasi Votes for Modi, it seems unlikely These election period- that the party could have won When it came to dealing with related initiatives tied in to in such numbers if it didn’t at the Dalits and Adivasis, to more strategic efforts to win least win some Dalit votes.”51 win over or at least neutralize the Dalits over to the BJP. them in the lead up to the The RSS, for one, was busy Breaking out of 2019 elections, the BJP courting Dalits with activities the “Cowbelt” employed a dual strategy. that ranged from cultural One was to convince the efforts that reconfigured In terms of breaking out of emerging Dalit middle class Hindu mythology to the “Hindi heartland,” the that Modi’s election would accommodate heroic figures BJP registered success. Its redound to their economic of Dalit background to biggest achievement was fortunes. The other was a extending educational aid in West Bengal, where it tactical underplaying of the to Dalit communities. In increased its share of the caste issue. As one account Western Uttar Pradesh, for votes from 4.8 to 40.2 percent put it, “Caste assertion has instance, there were said to and its share of seats from not been the strategy of be 850 sevakaryas, or centers, 4.8 to 42.8 percent. The the BJP, as it once was. As and 500 of them were in proportions were the same a matter of fact, on the one Dalit-dominated areas. “From in Odisha, another strategic hand, they have aggressively stitching to computer training, target of the BJP’s so-called negotiated with caste groups, these centres that the RSS “eastward push.” Equally and, on the other, presented runs with an affiliate called impressive was the BJP’s the image of a single, Sewa Bharti are imparting showing in Karnataka, where powerful leader. Dissociating skills that can help the young it won 25 of 28 seats. It also the image of the leader to earn a livelihood, claimed made inroads into Telangana. from the history of the RSS an RSS officer.”50 has allowed them strategic In the Northeast, previously maneuverability.”47 From initial election results, seen as impermeable to these containment strategies the BJP, the party soared to A related tactic was to appear to have worked. dominance, winning 14 of 25 ideologically downplay The estimated 25 percent seats and its regional allies caste differences and of the Dalit votes that went winning another four. rhetorically appeal to all to the BJP in 2014 does Hindus irrespective of not appear to have been Of all of India’s key states, caste to unite against the significantly altered. As it appears that only in the so-called common enemy: one analysis has pointed southern states of Tamil Nadu, Muslims.48 It must also be out, “The results show that Andra Pradesh, and Kerala, pointed out that in what the BJP was ahead in 67 where a Congress-led alliance many regarded as an act of percent of the Scheduled won 19 of 20 seats, was there supreme opportunism, the Caste and Scheduled Tribe a decisive beat-back of the Modi government challenged reserved constituencies, BJP challenge.

Focus on the Global South 46 JuLY 2019 If Congress was humiliated, Transformation is both a defeats or humiliation the Left was reduced negation and an affirmation. suffered at the hands of to smithereens. India’s As in the Philippines, the those of higher status Communist parties, which recent election results than themselves in a rigid won 59 seats in 2004, were represent a repudiation of hierarchy.52 reduced to just five seats, liberal democracy which their worst-performance to has created a huge gap Along with this negation date. Of those five seats, between its promises and is the affirmation of the one came from Kerala, where present inequalities. Much leadership of a person who the Communist Party (M) like the Liberal Party in the has combined in his persona had occasionally controlled Philippines, Rahul Gandhi and a dynamic personality and government, and four came the Congress Party have come ideology of wounded but from Tamil Nadu. As a force to represent the hypocrisy of assertive nationalism that in Indian politics, it may be on the old order. Best-selling has tapped into a country’s the brink of extinction. author Pankaj Mishra, no lover feelings of pride and shame, of both Modi and the Indian deep disappointment, and Anglophone elite’s liberal persistent hope. The Broader Canvas democracy, expresses this negation: Modi has been able to convert Factors specific to the Rived by caste as well this aggressive nationalism different states, such as as class divisions, and into a powerful electoral force. the presence of regional dominated in Bollywood Earlier this year, in February parties or how well the BJP as well as politics by 26, the so-called Balakot and Congress fielded their dynasties, India is a Incident reinforced this; Indian machines, are important in grotesquely unequal Air Force planes bombed explaining the BJP’s success. society. Its constitution, what New Delhi claimed were This is the case as well with and much political “terrorist training camps” the other explanations, such rhetoric, upholds the within Pakistan.53 as the dole-out to farmers, the notion that all individuals popularity of Modi’s scheme are equal and possess the A key feature of the new to subsidize the building of same right to education politics of India, it has been toilets for poor households, and job opportunities; but noted, is the willingness of the provision of free LPG the everyday experience many Indians of all sectors to connections to poor families, of most Indians testify “outsource their destiny” to and the successful organizing to appalling violations the leader.54 strategies among Dalits and of this principle. A great Adivasis. These factors do majority of Indians, Another key feature is that not, however, add up to a forced to inhabit the vast while it would be wrong to viable explanation. Politics gap between a glossy say that all of them agree with in India today is no longer democratic ideal and a the tenets of the ideology arithmetic. These factors must squalid undemocratic Modi represents, they are be placed in the context of a reality, have long stored willing to hold their critical political earthquake, a massive up deep feelings of injury, faculties in abeyance even on transformative change, a weakness, inferiority, such violations of basic values fundamental reconfiguration degradation, inadequacy like the lynching of people of politics in India. and envy; these stem from accused of killing cows or

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 47 Map from India Today, May 25, 2019. NDA stands for the pro-Modi National Democratic Alliance; UPA for the opposition United Progressive Alliance. Saffron is the color of the Hindu nationalist movement. Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/20190603- mandate-2019-the-republic-of-modi-1534275-2019-05-25

Focus on the Global South 48 JuLY 2019 murder of critics of the regime political communication; reality, in a concrete society, in order to give him the he was always seen to be the two types of legitimacy benefit of the doubt, making above the fray.55 coexist in a relationship him relatively invulnerable to fraught with tension. criticism. This holding-back is However, the conclusion caught by one writer: that this writer and other Charismatic legitimacy, on Modi’s message of writers come to—that this the other hand, derives unbridled nationalism and was the “success of political from a dynamic leader and Hindu identity drowned communication”—is rather subverts both traditional out the sort of issues simplistic, just as Pankraj and rational-legal authority that would have put any Mishra’s notion that Modi and structures. Charismatic other candidate on the “seduced” voters is. While politics takes advantage of defensive. In the end, the journalistic descriptions the contradiction between state of the economy or help illuminate the different traditional authority structures simmering social tensions dimensions of a complex that legitimize inequality and didn’t matter much… phenomenon, there must be injustice and a rational-legal Unemployment figures an effort to formulate a more order based on the principles were reported to be the comprehensive and profound of democracy, justice, and highest in four decades, sociological understanding of equality. Charismatic politics but exit polls show that the Modi phenomenon. is not politics as usual and is didn’t seem to make a fluid process that moves Modi any less of a favorite in uncharted waters until among India’s aspirational Charismatic Politics the charisma of the leader 84 million first-time in Command is “routinized” into a new voters, 15 million of them set of rules, procedures, and between the ages of 18 With Modi and the BJP, as in processes which become and 19…The anti-Muslim the case with Duterte in the the source of authority and rabble-rousing of some Philippines, it would be useful legitimacy. top BJP leaders and the to harness Max Weber’s lynchings of Muslim cattle concept of charismatic Viewed in this light, one can traders by violent Hindu politics. As noted earlier in see the emergence of Modi mobs did not earn Modi the section on the Philippines, and Hindu nationalism as a the opprobrium of voters. Weber distinguishes response to the unresolved Even fielding a candidate traditional, rational-legal, between the on-the-ground accused of terrorism—who and charismatic authority. traditional sources of power recently praised Mahatma Whereas tradition provides and authority in class, caste, Gandhi’s assassin—did the source of legitimacy in a and dynastic inequalities on not set either Modi or traditional polity, it is laws and one hand and the rational- his party back an inch. practices derived in a rational legal order based on equality, The candidate, Pragya process from basic principles justice, and democracy Thakur, won her seat with that are said to be the idealized in the Indian a handsome margin. Even foundation of a rational-legal constitution on the other. voters who disapprove of order. While most societies Thakur would not penalize are marked by the dominance Modi becomes the Modi for her candidacy. of either traditional or fountainhead of a This was the success of his rational-legal legitimacy, in reconfigured Hindu nation

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 49 where “harmony” will glorious past of Hindu and Adivasis. While useful in reign. This charismatic dominance. The regaining illuminating some aspects of reconfiguration is not a of an imagined harmony Modi and the BJP’s success, benign process but one is predicated on the each of these explanations which needs an “Other” or marginalization from the body do not add up to the whole. “Others” upon whom the politic of alien forces, notably Political success in this case is evils, troubles, inequalities Muslims but including as not arithmetic. of the old contradictory well Christians, westernized political order are projected. intellectuals, and Marxists. More useful is an explanation In the Modi paradigm, these Murder, lynching, and other derived from Max Weber are Muslims, Christians, forms of mob violence against that sees the Modi-BJP westernized intellectuals these sectors marked the BJP phenomenon as part of a or “sikularlibtards,” and reign from 2014 to 2019. sea change in Indian politics, the Gandhi dynasty. The whereby the touchstone of emergence of this new state Violence against minorities legitimacy is shifting from of harmony is achieved by the was one of the key issues traditional legitimacy and expulsion, transmogrification that the opposition brought rational-legal legitimacy into alien forces, or to the campaign against to charismatic legitimacy.56 repressive containment Modi and the BJP. It also A charismatic figure with of the representatives of hoped to exploit the poor a dynamic ideology has disharmony. state of the economy and emerged who presents the economic difficulties of himself as the key to the farmers. Dalits and Adivasis country’s future. People Conclusion were also seen as forces that have been persuaded to could be turned against the hold their critical faculties The overwhelming triumph BJP owing to Hindu upper in abeyance and give him of Narendra Modi’s BJP was caste discrimination against the benefit of the doubt, unexpected. While the BJP them. There was also the to “outsource” their future was expected to dominate expectation that the East, to him. Institutions, once the elections, it was projected Northeast, and South would seemingly solid, enter into to win a smaller number of remain immune to the appeal flux. India has, like the seats than in 2014, pushing of the BJP. On all of these Philippines, entered an era it to rely on its allies in the issues, sectors, and states, the of charismatic politics. How National Democratic Alliance BJP turned the tables on the long will it be before this to form a government. opposition. volatile period ends and, to Instead, the BJP won more use Weber’s term, charisma seats than it had in 2014, A number of complementary is “routinized” in new or achieving a hegemony in explanations have been modified institutions is Indian politics matching that forwarded to explain the anyone’s guess at this point. of the Congress at its apogee victory of the BJP, among in the first 30 years of post- them the personality of Modi, Will BJP, in fact, dominate Independence India. the organizational clout of India in the next 50 years, as The Hindu nationalism the BJP, the cash transfers to Amit Shah, Modi’s brother- associated with the BJP is struggling farmers, and the in-arms, predicted? Given an ideology that seeks the successful efforts to neutralize where things stand now, that recreation of an imagined alienation among the Dalits is not an impossibility.

Focus on the Global South 50 JuLY 2019 Institute strategy meeting, businessmen-4945328/, accessed Soesterberg, The Netherlands, August 4, 2018. 1 He did win though in another June 7, 2019. 26 Walker, p. 558. constituency, Wayanad in Kerala. 14 Parita Mukta, “The Public Face 27 This figure is hotly contested 2 P. Mehta, “Staggering of Hindu Nationalism,” Ethnic as the Modi Govt changed the dominance: The only authentic and Racial Studies, Vol. 23, No. 3 methodology for computing analysis of this election is two (2000), p. 443. GDP figures. So, in essence, words – Narendra Modi,” The 15 Bhatt, p. 142. many claim that even this was an Indian Express, May 24, 2019, 16 Ibid. inflated number. https://indianexpress.com/article/ 17 While the Hindu nationalists 28 “India’s economy stumbles opinion/columns/narendra- seek to incorporate Muslims in a badly as Narendra Modi begins modi-lok-sabha-elections-2019- Uniform or Common civil Code, his second term,” CNN, May results-bjp-congress-rahul- they do not talk of further reform 31, 2019, https://edition.cnn. gandhi-5745371/, accessed June of the Hindu personal law which com/2019/05/31/economy/india- 2, 2019. was only partially reformed since gdp-economy-q4/index.html, 3 Quoted in Sathianathan Clarke, Hindu women face continuing accessed June 3, 2019. Competing Fundamentalisms: discrimination in matters of 29 Quoted in Rajrishi Singal, “How Violent Extremism in Christianity, marriage, divorce, adoption, demonetisation impacted the Islam, and Hinduism (Louisville: inheritance, etc. The focus is on Indian economy,” Livemint, Westminster John Knox Press, Muslim and to a lesser extent Aug 30, 2018, https:// 2017), pp. 104-105. on Christians. It is not enough www.livemint.com/Politics/ 4 Gandhi and Nehru did not want for Hindutva forces to play the uCSwolE7ugfGfuv2O0wWbN/ Partition but were not prepared ‘politics of historical revenge’. How-demonetisation-impacted- to accept any power-sharing They also have to create a sense the-Indian-economy.html, federated arrangement with of anger and fear against a accessed June 3, 2019. Jinnah’s Muslim League to avoid Muslim minority that is among 30 Ibid. this. Much recent history puts the most deprived sections 31 The closest communal crime greater blame for Partition not so of Indian society and cannot approaching the Gujarat much on Jinnah as on Congress. remotely be said to be a political bloodbath took place in the city 5 Ibid. threat of ruling over the religious of Muzaffarnagar in the state of 6 Clarke, pp. 101-102. majority through representatives. Uttar Pradesh in September 2013, 7 Quoted in Clarke, p. 102. So they create contemporary which took 47 lives. 8 K. Satchidanandan, “The Idea of grievances by pointing out to 32 Harsh Mander, quoted in John India: The Case for Pluraiity,” in ‘unfair’ treatment by the state Dayal, “Lynchings and Other John Dayal, Leena Dabiru, and e.g., getting away with their own Consequences of Targeted Hate,” Shabnam Hashmi, Dismantling unreformed personal law or the in John Dayal, Leena Dabiru, and India: A Four Year Report (New only Muslim majority state in India Shabnam Hasshmi, Dismantling Delhi: Media House, 2018), p. 27. of Jammu and Kashmir getting India: A Four Year Report (New 9 Clarke, p. 112; Misrah, p. 269. special autonomy status. Delhi: Media House, 2018), pp. 10 Muslim rule is the main historical 18 John Harriss, “Hindu Nationalism 36-37. enemy and British rule seen as in Action: The Bharatiya Janata 33 Ibid., p. 31. The situation more of an overlay on this more Party and Indian Politics,” South became worse after January fundamental enemy which is Asia: Journal of South Asian 2017, According to a recent India why the RSS never fought as an Studies, Vol. 38, No. 4 (2015), p. Spend survey, between January organization against colonial 714. 2017 and July 5, 2018, [M]ob rule. Savarkar, an ideological 19 Mukta, p. 445. violence in India has killed 33 fountainhead of Hindutva, did 20 Mishra, p. 162. people and injured at least 99… fight against the British but as a 21 Mukta, p. 444. Muslims have been the target of price for his release after being 22 Ibid. 51 percent of violence centered imprisoned, made peace with 23 Clarke, p. 123. on cow-related incidents during the British. Hindutva’s main anger 24 Paul Brass, quoted in ibid. 2010 to 2017. The vast majority of has been directed to Christian 25 Chrstophe Jaffrelot, “Gujarat those killed in such incidents were missionaries and their institutions Model?,” The Indian Express, also Muslims. India Spend’s survey rather than British colonial rule. Nov. 20, 2017, https:// said 97 percent of these types of 11 Edna Fernandes, quoted in indianexpress.com/article/ attacks were reported after Modi’s Clarke, p. 99. opinion/columns/gujarat- government came to power in 12 Ibid., p. 151. assembly-elections-2017-bjp- May 2014. Most of those killed 13 Comments at Transnational demonetisation-gst-industrialists- by hard-line Hindus were accused

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 51 of trading cows for slaughter or that-incited-communal-violence- XmfL/What-the-Dalit-protests- transporting or storing beef… arrested-1891813. Accessed tells-us-about-BJPs-caste- Orthodox Hindus regard cows as August 15, 2013. conundrum.html, accessed June holy and their slaughter is banned 41 Ashok Swain, quoted in Dayal, p. 3, 2018. in most Indian states. Since Modi’s 36. 50 Pallavi Rebbapragada, “RSS party assumed power in 2014, 42 Yadav. footsoldiers march to seize BSP’s the ban has been used by Hindu 43 Shamika Ravi, “Debt Isn’t Killing Dalit base,” Firstpost, undated, nationalists to justify attacks on India’s Farmers,” Bloomberg, https://www.firstpost.com/ Muslims in public. In many cases Dec 24, 2018, https://www. politics/rss-footsoldiers-march-to- those people killed for beef bloomberg.com/opinion/ seize-bsps-dalit-base-6053411. were actually storing mutton or articles/2018-12-24/india-s- html, accessed June 4, 2019. water buffalo meat.” “Indian PM farmers-aren-t-committing- 51 Rohan Venkataramakrishnan. Condemns Lynchings but Critics suicide-because-of-high-debts, 52 Pankraj Mishrah, “How Narendra Say it’s too Late,” UCAN, August accessed June 3, 2019. Modi Seduced India with Envy 16, 2018, http://india.ucanews. 44 Ibid. and Hate,” New York Times, May com/news/indian-pm-condemns- 45 “Lok Sabha election results 2019: 23, 2019, https://www.nytimes. lynchings-but-critics-say-its-too- Decoding polls in 10 questions,” com/2019/05/23/opinion/modi- late/37963/daily. Accessed Hindustan Times, May 24, 2019, india-election.html, accessed August 16, 2018. https://www.hindustantimes.com/ June 3, 2019. 34 Kavita Krishnan, “Worst Ever lok-sabha-elections/lok-sabha- 53 The attack on Balakot was a stark Attack on Women’s Autonomy election-results-2019-decoding- manifestation of the nationalist and Rights,” in Dayal et al., pp. polls-in-10-questions/story- dimension of Hindu nationalism. 94-5. iUejE4lKqc6yxcV8oY92LJ.html, This anti-Pakistan posturing fits in 35 Godrej Emerald, “Shiv Sena accessed June 3, 2019. with anti-Muslimness, reinforces Attacks BJP Again, with RSS 46 Rohan Venkataramakrishnan, the spread of Islamophobia as Stick,” The Times of India, April “The Election Fix: What did we the supposed core of global 2, 2018, https://timesofindia. get wrong (and right) about the terrorism, and outflanks all indiatimes.com/india/shiv-sena- 2019 Lok Sabha polls?,” Scroll. internal opposition since none attacks-bjp-again-with-rss-stick/ in, June 3, 2019, https://scroll. of the opposition parties articleshow/63579125.cms. in/article/924765/the-election- including the mainstream left or Accessed August 9, 2018. fix-what-did-we-get-wrong-and- liberals are prepared to criticize 36 Ibid. right-about-the-2019-lok-sabha- in fundamental ways India’s 37 Souradeep Roy, “Unmaking polls, accessed May 26, 2019. “patriotic duty to defend the Indian Culture,” in Dayal et al., 47 Satyaki Roy and Pankaj Singh, unity and integrity of our country” pp. 10-16. “Modi’s Dalits or Dalits’ Modi: and to protect our “brave 38 Sam Jawed, “2017’s Top Fake How BJP Beat the Maze of Caste soldiers,” i.e., shifting attention News Stories Circulated by Politics in Uttar Pradesh, Firstpost, away from the repressive the Indian Media,” The Wire, March 23, 2017, https://www. presence of successive Indian January 3, 2018, https://thewire. firstpost.com/politics/modis- governments in the Kashmir in/media/2017s-top-fake-news- dalits-or-dalits-modi-how-bjp- Valley, a condition deepened and stories-circulated-by-the-indian- beat-the-maze-of-caste-politics- made more ruthless under Modi. media. Accessed Aug. 15, 2018. in-uttar-pradesh-3347354.html. It certainly contributed to the 39 Yogerndra Yadav, “What is to be Accessed August 9, 2017. BJP’s victory, though how much it Done?,” Paper presented in a 48 “Bahujan Politics May Haunt BJP did is a matter of dispute. “A New India: A Symposium on in West Bengal,” The New Indian 54 P. Mehta. the Current Political Dominance Express, December 9, 2017, 55 Barkha Dutt, “This is Modi’s of the BJP,” New Delhi, Nov. http://www.newindianexpress. India Now,” Washington 2017, http://india-seminar. com/thesundaystandard/2017/ Post, May 23, 2019, https:// com/2017/699/699_yogendra_ dec/09/bahujan-politics- www.washingtonpost.com/ yadav.htm. Accessed Aug. 6, may-haunt-bjp-in-west- opinions/2019/05/23/this-is- 2018. bengal-1723092.html. Accessed modis-india-now/?utm_term=. 40 “Muzaffarnagar: BJP MLA August 9, 2018. b121b2feedf9, accessed June 3, accused of uploading fake video 49 Pramit Bhattacharya, “What 2019. that ‘incited’ communal violence the Dalit protests tells us about 56 See, among others, Reinhard arrested,” DNA, Sept. 21, 2013, BJP’s caste conundrum,” Bendix, Max Weber: An http://www.dnaindia.com/india/ Livemint, April 2, 2018, Intellectual Portrait (Berkeley: report-muzaffarnagar-bjp-mla- https://www.livemint.com/ University of California Press, accused-of-uploading-fake-video- Politics/3ktImYDGfpc4MFxype 1977), p. 295.

Focus on the Global South 52 JuLY 2019 Conclusion Elections, Authoritarianism, and Charismatic Politics

This brief study of elections that would have been higher less need to manipulate the in Thailand, the Philippines, had the Constitutional Court electoral process owing to the and India reveals that not dissolved the Thai Raksa popularity of the incumbent elections have played a Chart party. leaders. Elections were central role in the repertoire seen as a mechanism to of the ruling regimes in the It is likely that pre-poll expand the popularity and three countries. Elections polarization has become legitimacy of the regime, have been used to legitimize more severe owing to the and widespread irregularities the existing configuration brazenly pro-regime moves would have undermined and correlation of power. made by agencies of the that process. Indeed, the Measured by this yardstick, state in the run-up to the elections were viewed as a how successful have the elections as well as the mechanism to elicit voters’ ruling elites been in the three insistence of the pro-regime spontaneous approval of countries? forces to have a military charismatic leaders. The freer figure, General Prayuth, lead the process, the greater the what had been promoted legitimacy would flow to the Elections and as a post-military civilian authoritarian personalities at Polarization in government. Indeed, the the helm. Thailand constitutional handicapping, the irregularities committed The results in Thailand, the In Thailand, deriving by the Election Commission Philippines, and India cannot legitimacy from the polls and the Constitutional be interpreted without has been problematic. Court, and the post-election reference to the underlying The results of the election maneuvering to ensure the political dynamics. The reproduced the existing social transition to a post-military elections in Thailand were and political polarization. regime headed by a military a continuation of a political Despite their having given figure were widely regarded counterrevolution based assent to a new constitution as designed to prevent a truly in the middle class and that severely handicapped democratic election out of against an insurgent populist the opposition, a large fear that this would yield pro- movement rooted in the number of voters continued Thaksin majority. lower classes. The military to vote for the latter. The regime of the last few years anti-regime forces won nearly In India and the Philippines, must be seen as an effort half the seats and nearly half on the other hand, the to freeze destabilizing class the popular vote, figures ruling regimes had much conflict while the military,

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 53 traditional elites, and for rupture in the medium and and India have entered middle-class intellectuals long term. an era where charismatic tried desperately to devise politics is in command. a political system that would The central feature of this provide constitutional Elections and politics is the willingness of mechanisms to institutionally Charismatic Politics citizens to hold their critical prevent the coming to in the Philippines faculties in abeyance and power of a lower-class and India “outsource” their destiny to based movement through an authoritarian figure. While free and fair elections. The Likewise, the elections in they may not agree with all latter, unable to mount a the Philippines and India aspects of his program, there critical mass of opposition must be seen as moments is a willingness to give him in response, opted to cease in a longer political trend. the benefit of the doubt. confrontational mobilizations This political movement is and wait for an electoral also counterrevolutionary To understand contemporary opening. No matter how in character but rather than processes in India and the biased the electoral rules being directed against Philippines, we have relied were against them, they an insurgent lower-class on Max Weber’s discussion saw the 2019 elections as revolution, it is aimed at of the features and dynamics an opening which could be a liberal democratic order of three kinds of authority: widened with the emergence that is widely seen as traditional, rational-legal, of a civilian regime. having failed to deliver on and charismatic authority. its promise to bring about Tradition provides the source It was unlikely that the popular empowerment and of legitimacy in a traditional establishment forces greater equality. It seeks an polity; in contrast, it is laws saw themselves winning authoritarian alternative, but and practices derived in a significant sectors of the central to legitimizing this rational process from basic pro-Thaksin electoral bloc. movement are elections. principles that serve as the Theirs had been purely a foundation of a rational- defensive strategy to preserve The alternative is one whose legal order. Although most the current correlation of coherence is less at the societies are marked by power, where they had the level of the rational than the the dominance of either edge. Yet, the entry of new emotional. This is the reason traditional legitimacy or forces into active politics charismatic figures such as rational-legal legitimacy, in threatened to upend the Duterte in the Philippines reality, in a concrete society, unstable correlation of forces, and Modi in India are central the two types of legitimacy and these were forces, like to the unfolding process, for coexist in a relationship younger voters from both the they act as lightning rods for fraught with tension and middle and the lower classes, popular discontent as well as conflict. likely to be alienated by the serve as the personification elites’ brazen efforts to rig of a vision of the future, no Charismatic legitimacy, in the electoral rules. Seeking matter how unclear that is at contrast, derives from a to preserve the current present. dynamic leader and subverts political equilibrium, the both traditional and rational- establishment was likely to While Thailand is stuck in legal authority and structures. have created the conditions class conflict, the Philippines Charismatic leaders perceive

Focus on the Global South 54 JuLY 2019 and take advantage of the of charismatic politics unique a mechanism that linked huge contradiction between to India and the Philippines. authoritarianism to its the persistence of traditional One does not encounter in democratic heritage while authority structures that the Philippines the intense hollowing out the latter. legitimize inequality and nationalism of the Hindu injustice and the ideal of a ideological forces. Nor does rational-legal order based on one have in the Philippines Confronting the principles of democracy, the equivalent of the Authoritarian Politics justice, and equality in their disciplined cadres of the RSS, quest to create a new order. whose work on the ground Democracy is confronted Charismatic leaders may has created fertile ground with great challenges in not themselves be clear as for electoral mobilization. the three countries. In to where they are leading Indeed, the absence of both Thailand, the overriding society, but their followers these features—fervent task is how to change an are willing to “outsource” nationalism and a disciplined, electoral system that hems their destiny to him or her. almost “Leninist,” party—may in and constrains democratic Charismatic politics is not in the end prove to be the choice, and institutions and politics as usual and is a Achilles Heel of the pro- procedures that are implicitly fluid process that moves in Duterte movement. backed by the firepower uncharted waters until the of the army. The pressures charisma of the leader is Elections are often regarded for change are great. It “routinized” into a new set as the quintessential appears that what many see of rules, procedures, and expression of citizenship as the brazen rigging of the processes which become in a democracy. But electoral process and the the source of authority and even if the trajectory of imposition of a military figure legitimacy. charismatic leadership is as prime minister in what was towards authoritarianism, trumpeted as a post-military Charismatic legitimacy is not elections, referenda, and era has created even greater always benign. It is often plebiscites are seen as popular alienation, and this tied up with the imaginative important mechanisms for may eventually bridge the recreation of an “Other” expressing the “rule of the divide between the middle or “Others” upon whom majority,” which is seen as and lower classes. Then there the ills, contradictions, and the foundational principle of is the emergence into politics disharmony of society are democracy. Other institutions of a younger generation projected. The achievement of liberal democracy may that sees both the military of social harmony is disappear or be rendered and traditional politicians as dependent on the excision hollow but elections are obstacles to the future of the or neutralization of the Other likely to remain an important country. These pressures may or Others—in the case of the mobilizing instrument for find extra-electoral outlets, Philippines, drug users, liberal a majoritarian regime, raising the prospects of politicians (“dilawan” or much like how referenda violent clashes. “yellows”), and communists; or plebiscites remained in the case of India, Muslims, a major instrument of In India and the Philippines, Christians, westernized legitimization of charismatic the challenge is different intellectuals, and communists. rule in Napoleonic and but no less daunting. This is To be sure, there are features post-Napoleonic France, keeping democracy alive in

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 55 an era of charismatic politics, charismatic authoritarianism is clear in the cases of India where electoral mobilization may be viewed as the and the Philippines, people becomes an instrument for displacement of one set of identify vicariously with the the transition to authoritarian values centered on freedom, strongman’s denunciation rule. democratic choice, and of the hypocrisy of liberal due process by another set democratic discourse, How should partisans of centered on security and the oftentimes going as far as democracy respond to the desire for recognition and applauding the brazenly challenge of charismatic for strong leadership. The politically incorrect language authoritarian politics? A hegemony of the latter is he employs. defense of democratic temporary, and once social processes, due process, conditions change, society The antidote to and individual rights must will once again put a premium authoritarianism cannot be a be mounted, and mounted on the former. compromise with its crushing aggressively. The perils of or curtailment of democratic a non-aggressive defense Aggressive defense of rights and freedoms. But are illustrated in the case democratic values is, it has to have something of the Philippines, where a however, not enough. People to offer people that will good case can be made that fall for authoritarian figures reawaken that side of them the opposition’s defensive not only out of the need that values freedom, justice, posture, which made them for personal security and cooperation, and self-rule. It look like losers even before collective recognition that cannot be a return to a flawed the elections were held, was the strongman fulfills by liberal democratic past but a not something that inspired an all-out “war” on crime move towards a future where confidence among voters. and drugs, scapegoating of popular empowerment and Democrats must realize that certain groups, and stoking equality are truly realized, they represent enduring of reactionary nationalism. whether one calls this values, values that may be They are also responding, state socialism, substantive temporarily eclipsed by in frustration, to the huge democracy, or social the concerns and fears that gap between the vision of democracy. In a very real charismatic figures stoke, but popular empowerment and sense, what Rosa Luxemburg they are values that people genuine equality offered said humanity faced at the eventually return to, even if by the liberal democratic beginning of the strife- that takes a generation. order and the reality of ridden 20th century is also continuing gross inequality true today, that we face the In this sense, the struggle and concentration of power in choice between “socialism or between democracy and the hands of social elites. As barbarism.”

Focus on the Global South 56 JuLY 2019 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Focus on the Global South would like to thank Achin Vanaik, Seema Mustafa, Alec Bamford, Chanida Bamford, Princess Nemenzo, and Ric Reyes for serving as external reviewers. However, they are not responsible for possible errors and inaccuracies in this report, for which Focus takes full and sole responsibility. We would also like to thank Amy Tejada for the layout and Clarissa Militante for copyediting and proofreading.

UnderminING Democracy THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India 57

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