Why Conspiracy Theories Appeal and Persist

SI Jan Feb 2011_SI JF 10 V1 11/17/10 3:01 PM Page 1

Auras | The Book Nobody Can Read | ‘Pop’ Culture | Magnetic Scams | Flawed Thinking

Vol. 35 No. 1 | January/February 2011 THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE & REASON

WHY CONSPIRACY THEORIES APPEAL AND PERSIST

Published by The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/12/10 11:56 AM Page 2

AT THE CEN TERFOR IN QUIRY /TRANSNATIONAL

www.csicop.org Paul Kurtz, Founder Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Schroeder, Chairman Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Ronald A. Lindsay, President and CEO Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor Mar burg, Ger ma ny New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician, author, Harriet Hall, MD, family physician, investigator, Sci en ces Univ. Newton, MA Puyallup, WA Robert L. Park,professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist, au thor, con sum er C.E.M. Han sel, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Wales Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of ad vo cate, Al len town, PA David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Willem Betz,MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Columbia Univ. Observatory, Williams College Ir ving Bie der man, psychol o gist, Univ. of Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. South ern Cal i for nia un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Sus an Black more, Vis it ing Lec tur er, Univ. of the West Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and City Univ. of New York–Lehman College of Eng land, Bris tol pro fes sor of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Philip Plait, astronomer, lecturer, and writer Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist, pro fes sor emer i tus Le on Jar off, sci en ces ed i tor emer i tus, Time Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer, au thor, ex ec u tive of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of James “The Amazing” Randi, magician, CSICOP Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, Public Policy, Washington, D.C. founding member; founder, James Randi Sacramento City College, writer Ser gei Ka pit za, former ed i tor, Rus sian edi tion, Educational Foundation Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice president Sci en tif ic Amer i can Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go for science education, Howard Hughes Medical In- Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Wal la ce Sam pson, MD, clin i cal pro fes sor of med i cine, stitute, Madison, Wisconson of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept., Stan ford Univ., ed i tor, Sci en tif ic Re view of John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist, ed i tor, Na tion al director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Al ter na tive Med i cine Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate Ev ry Schatz man, former pres i dent, Univ. of Southern California’s Annenberg Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer, di rect or, French Phys ics As so ci a tion School of Journalism Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist, ex ec u tive Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic, pro fes sor Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus of philosophy, di rect or, Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion emer i tus of Eng lish, Univ. of Cal i for nia, Berke ley SUNY at Buffalo Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer El ie A. Shne our, bi o chem ist, au thor, president and Geof frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; research director, Bi os ys tems Re search In sti tute, Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, No bel lau re ate in phys ics La Jol la, CA Univ. of Utrecht, The Neth er lands Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Dan i el C. Den nett, Univ. pro fes sor and Aus tin B. Atlanta, GA Mountain View, CA Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy, di rect or of Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Dick Smith,film pro duc er, pub lish er, Ter rey Hills, Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies at Tufts Uni v. Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) N.S.W., Aus tral ia Ann Druyan, writer and producer, and CEO, Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Rob ert Stein er, ma gi cian, au thor, El Cer ri to, CA Cosmos Studios, Ithaca, NY Berke ley Vic tor J. Sten ger, emer i tus pro fes sor of phys ics Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Eliz a beth Loft us, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, and as tron o my, Univ. of Ha waii; ad junct pro fes sor Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Univ. of CA, Ir vine of phi los o phy, Univ. of CO Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, Da vid Marks,psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Jill Cor nell Tar ter,as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, SE Louisiana Univ. Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Moun tain View, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Mex i co City, Mex i co Car ol Tav ris,psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Los Al tos Hills, CA Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Kend rick Fra zier*, sci ence writer, ed i tor, Brown Univ. Per al ta, NM SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER Marv in Min sky, pro fes sor of me dia arts and sci en ces, Steph en Toul min, pro fes sor of phi los o phy, Christopher C. French, professor, department M.I.T. Univ. of South ern CA of psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Psychology Research Unit, Goldsmiths Cen ter Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City College, Univ. of London Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine Yves Gal i fret, executive secretary, Berke ley con trib ut ing ed i tor l’Union Rationaliste Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Univ. of Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, The Netherlands E.O. Wil son, uni ver si ty pro fes sor emer i tus, the Italian skeptics group Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege Har vard Univ. Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Steven Novella, MD, assistant professor Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Uni ver si ty Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine of Hert ford shire, England Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Benjamin Wolozin*, professor, department of In sti tute; No bel lau re ate Nye Labs pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Marv in Zel en, stat is ti cian, Har vard Univ.

* Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion only.) SI Jan Feb 11 FINAL_SI new design masters 11/17/10 2:56 PM Page 3

Skep ti cal In quir er January / February 2011 | Vol. 35, No. 1

FEATURES COLUMNS

FROM THE EDITOR 28 Conspiracy Theories and Evidence- The Conspiracy Meme Based Knowledge ...... 4 TED GOERTZEL NEWS AND COMMENT CSI(COP) Renews and Expands Execu- 38 tive Council, Plans for Future Activities/ The Aura CSI Cracks Manhattan UFO Mystery/ A Brief Review Maryland’s Highest Court Strikes Down BRIDGETTE M. PEREZ County Law Forbidding Fortune-Telling AND TERENCE HINES Businesses ...... 5

INVES TI GA TIVE FILES 41 ‘Pop’ Culture: Patent Medicines Defending Isagenix Become Soda Drinks A Case Study in Flawed Thinking JOE NICK ELL...... 14 HARRIET HALL NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD 46 The Ruler Incident The Voynich Manucript MAS SI MO POLIDORO...... 18 The Book Nobody Can Read THINK ING ABOUT SCI ENCE KLAUS SCHMEH Historical vs. Nomological Sciences MAS SI MO PI GLI UC CI...... 20

SKEPTICAL INQUIREE INTERVIEW Left Brained or Right Brained? BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 22

PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS 9 A Human Head on a Cow UFOdom’s Most ROBERT SHEAFFER...... 23 Prolific Author? THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE Kevin Randle Magnetic Healing: An Old Scam ROBERT SHEAFFER That Never Dies STEVEN NOVELLA ...... 26

NEW BOOKS...... 59

FORUMS LETTERS TO THE ED I TOR...... 62 51 THE LAST LAUGH...... 66 Hope: Faith, Atheism, and Agnosticism JONATHAN C. SMITH 54 Paranormal Beliefs REVIEWS and Insight Fooling People for Challenging the GARY M. BAKKER Money and Profit Presumed Dominance 56 GREG MARTINEZ...... 58 of the Brain PETER LAMAL...... 60 The Right Stuff Abel Raises Cain Will America’s (Foolish) Directed by Jenny Abel and Jeﬀ Hockett Brainstorm: The Flaws in the Optimism Stare Shades of Gray Science of Sex Diﬀerences Down the Recession? Directed by Bob Wilkinson By Rebecca M. Jordan-Young STEVEN DOLOFF SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/12/10 11:56 AM Page 4

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep ti cal In quir er™ THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON

ED I TOR Kend rick Fra zi er Conspiracy Theories ED I TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Thom as Cas ten, Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, and Evidence-Based Knowledge Joe Nick ell, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Benjamin Wolozin CON SULT ING ED I TORS Sus an J. Black more, onspiratorial thinking, like magical thinking, leads people astray from Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E. C. Krupp, clearly reasoned, evidence-based approaches to assessing extraordinary Da vid F. Marks, Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man claims. I doubt there is one among us who doesn’t have a friend or rel- CON TRIB UT ING ED I TORS Austin Dacey, D.J. Grothe, C Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, Chris Moon ey, ative prone to seeing conspiracies just about everywhere. But while there is James E. Oberg, Rob ert Sheaf fer, Karen Stollznow good reason to say that paranormal-style magical happenings are unlikely to MAN A GING ED I TOR Ben ja min Rad ford exist in any real way, conspiracies definitely do exist. So the challenge is some- ART DI RECT OR Chri sto pher Fix how to identify the real conspiracies and avoid over-obsessing—without good PRO DUC TION Paul Loynes evidence—about imaginary ones. Some people do exactly that. ASSISTANT EDITORS Julia Lavarnway, In our extended cover article in this issue, Rutgers University social sci- Gretchen McCormack Jon Childress entist Ted Goertzel, who has written extensively on belief in conspiracy the- WEB DEVELOPER PUB LISH ER’S REP RE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr ories, brings his informed perspective to this very timely topic. He directly COR PO RATE COUN SEL Bren ton N. Ver Ploeg addresses popular conspiracy theories about scientific and technological mat- BUSI NESS MAN A GER Pa tri cia Beau champ ters: the AIDS virus, the 1969 Moon landing, the 9/11 attacks, vaccines as FIS CAL OF FI CER Paul Pau lin a cause of autism, genetically modified foods, climate science, and fear of VICE PRESIDENT OF PLANNING AND DEVEL OP MENT science in general (among other topics). Like lies and pseudoscientific claims, Sherry Rook conspiracy theories are easy to propagate and difficult to refute. In fact, this DATA OF FI CER Jacalyn Mohr kind of thinking is self-reinforcing: absence of any evidence of a conspiracy STAFF Pa tri cia Beau champ, Melissa Braun, Cheryl Catania, Roe Giambrone, Leah Gordon, is seen as evidence of an effective cover-up. One mark of many conspiracy An tho ny San ta Lu cia, John Sul li van, Vance Vi grass theories is cascade logic—when defenders of a conspiracy theory have to IN QUIRY ME DIA PRO DUC TIONS Thom as Flynn implicate more and more people as complicit with the conspiracy. Goertzel DI RECT OR OF LI BRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga provides many useful guidelines for identifying and understanding this kind The SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER is the of fi cial of thinking. He ends by discussing the consequences of allowing conspiracy jour nal of the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, theorists to dominate public debate. an in ter na tion al or gan i zation. * * *

Veteran readers may have noticed something different in SI. Starting with The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER(ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished bi month - our previous issue, we’ve done a little bit of a redesign on the contents page, ly by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry, 3965 Rensch Road, Am herst, NY 14228. Print ed in U.S.A. Pe ri od i cals post age paid this page, and the opening pages of articles and columns. Letters, reviews, at Buf fa lo, NY, and at ad di tion al mail ing of fi ces. Sub scrip tion and interviews have also been reworked to allow for quicker reading. The pri ces: one year (six is sues), $35; two years, $60; three years, $84; sin gle is sue, $4.95. Ca na di an and for eign or ders: changes aren’t drastic. It’s not a total makeover. It is an attempt to subtly im- Pay ment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac com pa - prove appearance and readability and make more efficient use of space. Our ny or ders; please add US$10 per year for ship ping. Ca na di an thanks go to SI Art Director Christopher Fix. and for eign cus tom ers are en cour aged to use Vi sa or Mas ter - Card. Canada Publications Mail Agreement No. 41153509. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: IMEX, P.O. Box * * * 4332, Station Rd., Toronto , ON M5W 3J4. We are pleased to welcome 2,200 new subscribers to the SKEPTICAL IN- In quir ies from the me dia and the pub lic about the work of the Com mit tee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, QUIRER —a result of our first subscription campaign in several years. We trust CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636- that you new readers will find SI to be a fresh source of scientific thinking 1425. Fax: 716-636-1733. and authoritative information about all manner of extraordinary or contro- Man u scripts, let ters, books for re view, and ed i to ri al in quir ies versial claims. Evidence-based investigation and analysis is what we’re all should be sent to Kend rick Fra zi er, Ed i tor, SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, 944 Deer Drive NE, Al bu querque, NM 87122. Fax: 505-828- about. Scientific thinking is not infallible, but it is self-correcting. And it is 2080. E-mail: [email protected]. Be fore sub mit - the best route we have to accurate, reliable knowledge about the natural ting any man u script, please consult our Guide for Au thors for styles, ref er en ce requirements, and submittal re quire ments. world. Scholars and educators fed up with unreliable speculation, members It is on our website at www.csicop.org/pub lications/guide. of the news media seeking help, and readers in general who are curious about Or you may send a re quest to the ed i tor. claims they’ve heard—all look to us to sift fact from fiction, reliable infor- Ar ti cles, re ports, re views, and let ters pub lished in the SKEP TI- CALIN QUIR ERrep re sent the views and work of in di vid u al au thors. mation from misinformation, and sense from nonsense. We’ve been doing Their pub li ca tion does not nec es sa ri ly con sti tute an en dorse - that for a very long time now, but new claims (and old claims in new guises) ment by CSI or its mem bers un less so stated. pop up continually. We’re your friendly consumer guide to what is (and isn’t) Cop y right ©2010 by the Com mit tee for Skeptical Inquiry. All behind them. We welcome your feedback. rights re served. The SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ERis avail a ble on 16mm mi - cro film, 35mm mi cro film, and 105mm mi cro fiche from Uni - ver si ty Mi cro films In ter na tional and is in dexed in the Read er’s Guide to Pe ri od i cal Lit er a ture. Sub scrip tions and chan ges of ad dress should be ad dressed to: SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (out side the U.S. call 716- 636-1425). Old ad dress as well as new are nec es sa ry for change of sub scrib er’s ad dress, with six weeks ad vance no - tice. SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER sub scrib ers may not speak on be half of Committee for Skeptical Inquiry CSI or the SKEP TI CAL IN QUIR ER. Post mas ter: Send chan ges of ad dress to SKEP TI CALIN QUIR ER, P.O. “...promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

CSI(COP) Renews and Expands Executive Council, Plans for Future Activities Kendrick Frazier and Barry Karr

The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ence Education), David E. Thomas sources is its group of fellows—outstand- (CSI), publisher of the SKEPTICAL IN- (physicist/mathematician; president, ing scientists, scholars, and investigators QUIRER, promotes “scientific inquiry, New Mexicans for Sci ence and Rea- elected for their “distinguished achieve- critical investigation, and the use of reason), Leonard Tramiel (astrophysicist; ment in science and skepticism.” At the son in examining controversial and ex- board member, Center for Inquiry), and October meeting, the executive council traordinary claims” (see box for a fuller Benjamin Wolozin (cell biologist and elected a number of new CSI fellows. version of our mission statement). researcher into degenerative nerve dis- These fellows-elect will be announced CSI’s official policy-making body is eases, Boston University School of after invitation letters are sent out and its executive council. A variety of cir- Medi cine). All but Lilienfeld attended acceptances re ceived. We will report on cumstances had militated against any the meeting. Several additional candi- them in a future issue. meeting of the executive council for dates for the executive council are By the way, the possibility of going several years, but a small CSI planning under consideration. back to CSI’s original name, the Com - meeting was held on October 9, 2010, Much of the discussion at the all- mittee for the Scientific Investi gation at the Millennium Biltmore Hotel in day meeting was centered on ideas and of Claims of the Paranormal (abbrevi- downtown Los Angeles. The executive plans for strengthening the reach and ated CSICOP and pronounced “psi- council was reconstituted and ex - increasing the visibility of CSI and the cop”)—which had been in place since panded, and then it met for the rest of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Possible future its founding in 1976—was raised and the day. The meeting was initiated, or- CSI activities and events were also con- briefly discussed, with no action taken. ganized, and hosted by CSI Execu tive sidered. Among the topics discussed The name was shortened by the execu- Director Barry Karr. were better facilitating international co- tive council in a meeting on Sep tem ber Members of the new executive coun- operation and participation, building 23, 2006 (see SI, January/February cil, who will also serve on this magazine’s bonds with skeptical communities 2007). One suggestion was to keep the editorial board, are James E. Alcock (psy- everywhere, supporting local and re- new, shorter name but resume use of chologist, York University, Toronto), gional groups, drawing more upon CSI the CSICOP acronym, which has a Kendrick Frazier (science writer; editor, fellows and scientific consultants, social long and rich tradition and history. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER), Ray Hyman networking interactively with readers Readers’ and supporters’ ideas or com- (psychologist, University of Oregon), and supporters, and helping train small ments about any of the topics ad dressed Scott O. Lilienfeld (psychologist, active groups for investigations. here may be directed to Executive Direc- Emory University; editor, the Scien tific It was decided to resume regular CSI tor Barry Karr at CSI’s Amherst head- Review of Mental Health Practice ), conferences, ideally in late Octo ber each quarters at [email protected] (or Amardeo Sarma (chairman of GWUP, year. The next one is tentatively sched- through the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER’s the German skeptics group), Eugenie uled for October 27–30, 2011. Various Facebook page), Editor Kendrick Frazier C. Scott (physical anthropologist; exec- sites are under consideration. at [email protected], or any utive director, National Center for Sci- One of CSI’s main intellectual re - of the executive council members. n

Your Mission, Should You Choose to Accept . . .

Here is CSI’s current, full mission statement as written and approved by its executive council on September 23, 2005: The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining important issues. It encourages the critical investigation of controversial or extraordinary claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and disseminates factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community, the media, and the public. This shorter version was created in 2009 (either may be used): The mission of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry is to promote scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.

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CSI Cracks Manhattan UFO Mystery Benjamin Radford

New Yorkers are used to odd sights, but what hundreds of people in the Chelsea district of Manhattan’s West Side saw in the sky on October 14, 2010, surprised even them. A cluster of silvery, shiny lights appeared. Initial descriptions of the supposed UFO varied widely. One person said that it was “an oddly shaped object full of lights, flying slowly through the evening sky,” while others saw (and recorded) three distinct objects. Still others saw upwards of six. However many clusters there were—and whatever their nature—the city’s 311 emergency line received dozens of calls Via Twitter from @jasondiamond from Via Twitter about the mysterious, “extraordinary” Mysterious light clusters appeared over the Chelsea district of Manhattan on October 14, 2010. lights. Aliens in spacecraft were of course a popular theory, though most New Yorkers seemed to take the lights escaped (shortly before the sightings) in stride. Officials said that the objects from an engagement party held for a were not detected as a security threat. teacher at the school. “It was just a freak I was asked by a reporter from ABC thing. Frankly, I’m shocked by it,” said News to analyze video footage of the Aliens in spacecraft Angela Freeman, head of the school. mysterious lights in the sky, and a closer were of course a “The kids had an engagement party for look offered clues about their identity. a teacher, and a mother brought four The lights moved independently like popular theory, dozen balloons, and she’s coming floating objects, unlike fixed lights on through the door. It is very windy in an aircraft or spacecraft; they moved to- though most Mount Vernon. Suddenly, twelve of the gether in the same direction as the wind New Yorkers seemed balloons let loose.” The wind patterns and did not show up on radar. Further- at the time would have taken the bal- more, the objects were not emitting to take the loons to within sight of people in Man- light but instead reflecting sunlight. lights in stride. hattan’s Chelsea area. I told the ABC reporter that the The sightings were also very similar lights looked identical to those seen in to a famous UFO report from New Jer- a reputed UFO video from Buffalo, sey’s Morris County on the evening of New York, that Joe Nickell and I ana- January 5, 2009. An eleven-year-old lyzed several years ago. We determined girl noticed some bright lights in the that those lights were caused by silver cials also suspected that the objects night sky: three lights grouped together Mylar balloons. Of course I could not were balloons, “but so far [there is] no and another pair some distance away. conclusively prove that the Manhattan confirmation. As they said on the X- The lights, which glowed red, moved “UFOs” were balloons, based upon the Files, the truth is out there.” silently and slowly, then disappeared one limited information available and video - In the late afternoon of the day after by one. That case, which I also investi- tape evidence, but I offered it as my best the sightings, officials from the Mile- gated and solved, was some months later professional opinion. On the Early Show, stone School in nearby Mount Vernon, revealed to be a hoax created “as a social anchor Erica Hill reported the story, New York, identified the “UFOs” as experiment” (see “CSI Solves New Jersey concluding that law enforcement offi- some of the helium balloons that had UFO Mystery,” SI, July/August 2009). n

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[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Maryland’s Highest Court Strikes Down County Law Forbidding Fortune-Telling Businesses Scott Snell

Montgomery County’s 1951 ordinance exchanges is sufficient, and it is not re- against fortune-telling for profit has strictive of protected speech. Nefedro’s been struck down by the Maryland legal team also stated, “Rather than Court of Appeals. The June 10 opinion being narrowly tailored, the For- overturned a lower court’s judgment up- tunetelling Ban is substantially over- holding the ordinance’s constitutionality. broad, in that it criminalizes payment Fortune-teller Nick Nefedro, represented for all fortune telling—whether or not in part by the American Civil Liberties actually fraudulent.” Union (ACLU) Founda tion of Mary- This viewpoint was reflected in the land, argued that the fortune-telling or- court’s majority opinion: dinance violates his right to freedom of ... the County repeatedly asserts . .. speech under the First Amendment to that fortunetelling is “inherently the United States Con sti tution and Ar- fraudulent” and, as a result, should not ticle 40 of the Maryland Declaration of receive any First Amendment protec- Rights. The ordinance (Montgomery tion. Indeed, the First Amend ment does not protect fraudulent state- County Code § 32-7, “Fortunetelling”) ments.... We are not, however, persuaded reads, in part: that all fortunetelling is fraud ulent [em- Every person who shall demand or phasis added]. While we recognize accept any remuneration or gratuity that some fortune tellers may make for forecasting or foretelling or for fraudulent statements, just as some pretending to forecast or foretell the lawyers or journalists may, we see future by cards, palm reading or any nothing in the record to suggest that other scheme, practice or device shall fortunetelling always involves fraudu- be subject to punishment for a class lent statements. Indeed, for tune tellers, B violation . . . in any warrant for a like magicians or horoscope writers, violation of the above provisions, it are able to provide entertainment to shall be sufficient to allege that the their customers or some other benefit defendant forecast or foretold or pre- that does not deceive those who re- tended to forecast or foretell the fu- ceive their speech. ture by a certain scheme, practice or device without setting forth the par- Many or perhaps all The court also referenced an earlier case ticular scheme, practice or device em- in which a court “defer[red] to the leg- ployed; provided, that this section psychics privately or islative finding . . . that fortune telling is shall not apply to any benefit per- publicly hold that inherently deceptive and, therefore, is un- formance. ... protected speech” but refused to follow In the ACLU’s view, the ordinance their readings are its lead, warning that “such deference unduly burdens protected speech by genuine insights, would allow legislatures to ban any man- forbidding remuneration for speech. ner of protected speech by simply declar- Citing earlier rulings that restrictions but they present ing it ‘inherently deceptive.’” on payment for protected speech are them as solely The court’s dissenting opinion noted equivalent to absolute bans on that the majority’s speech, Nefedro’s attorneys recognized entertainment due inapt analogy to lawyers and journal- the county’s interest in preventing fraud to government ists . . . which fails to recognize that, but argued that the county had not although some lawyers or journalists chosen the least restrictive means to may make fraudulent statements, the regulation. practice of such professions without further this interest. By this argument, fraud is attainable. I would affirm the the county’s existing ordinance against judgment of the Circuit Court for deceptive trade practices in consumer Montgomery County and hold that

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Montgomery County’s election to tions for psychics intact. protect its citizens (and their money Meanwhile, many or perhaps all and other assets) from for-profit for- psychics privately or publicly hold that tunetellers, palmists, card readers, and the like, does not violate Appel - their readings are genuine insights, but lant’s constitutional right to free This admittedly they present them as solely entertain- speech. ment due to government regulation. oppressive situation This admittedly oppressive situation According to a June 11 Washington could be changed by demonstrably suc- Post report, Montgomery County Coun - could be changed cessful fortune-telling, even if at first cil spokesman Patrick Lacefield was by demonstrably presented only in an entertainment uncertain whether the county would ap- context. Successful forecasts would peal this Maryland Court of Appeals successful fortune- eventually pose a problem for any law- decision. telling, even if at first makers intent on restricting the indus- Elsewhere, many jurisdictions have try to the entertainment field. successfully regulated fortune-telling for presented only in More information is available at profit by allowing it solely for the pur- an entertainment http://ncas.org/pdf/2010-Sep-Shadow. pose of entertainment or amusement. pdf. n The disclaimer “for entertainment pur- context. poses only” is widely used in the psychic Scott Snell is a flight software engineer at industry, informing consumers of evi- NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and serves dence-based views about the industry on the board of directors of the National Capital while leaving First Amendment protec- Area Skeptics.

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8 Volume 35 Issue 1 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/12/10 11:56 AM Page 9

INTERVIEW]

UFOdom’s Most Prolific Author? A Conversation with Kevin Randle

Kevin Randle is the most prolific UFO author today, but he has ruffled a lot of feathers in UFOlogy by rejecting many “classic” cases. Nonetheless, he thinks that some UFO cases have validity, and he still accepts that aliens crashed at Roswell. SI Contributing Editor Robert Sheaffer interviewed Randle to explore their points of agreement and disagreement, finding that Randle gives more weight to “eyewitness testimony” than skeptics typically do.

Kevin, it’s good to talk to you serving a total of thirty- books, counting a couple describing sleep paralysis. again. You and I first met over three years in the military, of foreign editions and The book discusses a thirty years ago, in 1977. Peo- counting both active and special editions. multiplicity of explana- ple will probably be surprised inactive service. tions, all of them terres- to hear that you used to hang I’ve always been amazed at trial-based. out with Phil Klass and me. Very impressive. And you’ve how quickly you write. written how many books I used to have my own You have some very strong Yes. When I went to D.C. about UFOs? “book of the month club.” criticisms in it of well-known I went sailing with Phil I’ve written twenty-two At one point I was writing abductionists. Klass in his sailboat on the books on UFOs, not more than one book a Yes, many of these sup- Potomac. I remember we counting UFO-themed month. In one twelve- posed abductees are very got stuck on a sandbar or fiction books. I might be month period, I wrote impressionable and are something. the most prolific UFO nineteen books. easily led by [a] hypnotist. author of all time. I think The late Dr. John Mack I remember that sailboat. You I have Brad Steiger beat. Wow! Let’s talk about the said there was a curious and I have kept in touch only I should check up some- 1999 book The Abduction matching of abductees to occasionally since then. So, time to find out. Enigma, which you co-wrote the researcher. He had Kevin, you served with the with Russ Estes and the psy- commented on this in a army in Vietnam, you served You’ve also written fiction chologist William P. Cone. number of places, in cluding in the Air Force, and you also books. How many? That book is pretty skeptical. [C.D.B.] Bryan’s book fought in Iraq. I have written twenty-five Yes, that’s made me really about the MIT conference I was a helicopter pilot or thirty books of science popular. I get all kinds of [Close Encounters of the with the Army in Vietnam. fiction, as well as some- criticisms of it at MUFON Fourth Kind: A Reporter’s I was a ground-pounder in thing like forty or fifty [Mutual UFO Network] Notebook on Alien Abduc tion, the Air Force—I was hon- books of action-adventure, conferences. If you want to UFOs, and the Con ference at orably discharged in 1993. a western, a murder mys- commit UFOlogical sui- M.I.T. (1995)]. We flipped After 9/11, I signed up tery, and a book about cide, just say that all UFO it around, suggesting that again with the Iowa Na- lost gold mines and abductions have a terres- the abduction researcher tional Guard and went to hidden treasures. In total, trial explanation. But many was drawing out those facts Iraq. I retired in 2009, it’s something over 100 of these “abductees” are that most closely matched

Skeptical Inquirer | January/ February 2011 9 SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/12/10 11:56 AM Page 10

“It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” – Thomas Paine You are invited to join the Center for Inquiry to Act, Combat, and Promote…

Since 1976, three remarkable organizations have been in the forefront of efforts to promote and defend critical thinking and freedom of inquiry. The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (founded in 1976), the Council for Secular Humanism (1980), CSI Fellow and SkEPTICAl INquIrEr Editorial Board Member and the Center for Inquiry James Alcock leads a class at a Skeptics’ Toolbox event. The Toolbox (1991) have advocated, has been held every year, except once, since 1992. championed, and, when necessary, defended the freedom to inquire … while Your Help Is a Necessity! ACT, COMBAT, and PROMOTE demonstrating how the fruits Each year, magazine of objective inquiry can be We are currently focused on three subscriptions fund a smaller used to understand reality, goals central to our core objectives: percentage of this work, even refute false beliefs, and achieve as the need for activism in- Act to end the stigma results that benefit humanity. attached to being creases and the population nonreligious. we serve grows. In many ways, our organizations have been ahead of their Combat religion’s More than ever, CFI and its time. Now, they are privileges and its influence affiliates depend on the on public policy. truly 3 For Tomorrow. generosity of our supporters Through education, advocacy, both to fund daily operations Promote science-based publishing, legal activism, skepticism and critical thinking. and to build capital and its network of regional for the future. branches, CFI and its affiliate Make your most generous gift

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INTERVIEW ]

their perceptions of the Walton type of abductions abduction phenomenon. [that take place outdoors, Mack said that he thought usually in a remote place]. [that this was the case] Not the kind of abduction sometimes but never said where aliens come into it out loud. We gave him your bedroom. the page number in Bryan’s book (it’s page 270 in The Budd Hopkins type the hardback, near the of abductions? bottom of the page if you’re Actually, I wrote the first interested enough in published account of this looking it up). kind of abduction in Saga In The Abduction magazine in the 1970s. Enig ma, we said this field It was about Pat Roach, had not progressed in over although she was then twenty years. It’s now using the alias “Patty been another ten or twelve Price.” Roach claimed a years, and it still has single abduction, [which not progressed. is] important only because this was the first time that So you don’t consider any it was reported that the UFO abduction accounts aliens came right into the credible? house. Other, later ab- If any such accounts might ductees suggested multiple be credible, they would be abductions, which make no the Betty Hill or Travis scientific sense.

“If you want to commit UFOlogical suicide, just say that all UFO abductions have a terrestrial explanation.”

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Are there any other of your Your latest book is titled Shag Harbour [Nova Scotia, that was quite common at books you want to mention Crash: When UFOs Fall Canada, 1967]? I didn’t think military bases and in before we get to your latest from the Sky [New Page there was much evidence for weather stations. Nothing one? Books, 2010]. Do they fall that one. there to fool anyone. In UFO Crash at Roswell from the sky? A lot of people say they saw The Mogul balloon wasn’t that special. It consisted of [1991] we went with the Yes. At least in the strict an object fall into Shag an ordinary weather bal- best information we had at sense—[as] unidentified Harbour. And there was in- loon with a bunch of radar the time. We were spend- falling objects. Some of volvement of the civil au- reflectors attached to it. ing big money on phone them are meteors. thorities, plus the military. calls, travel to Roswell, and Nothing was recovered. Major Marcel should have so on. We got burned by How many claims of UFO Possibly it was an emer- known what it was. people early on—[sup- crashes are described in gency landing of some- [Intelli gence Officer] posed crash witnesses] your book? thing. There is a body of Sheridan Cavitt, who went Frank Kaufmann [and] documents; it needs further out to examine the object, [There are] 118 accounts, Glenn Dennis [who have investigation. said later that he knew right not counting those men- since been shown to have away it was a balloon when tioned in the introduction What’s your take been fabricating]. I might [he was] standing in the on Roswell today? point out that while skep- and the epilogue. There field with Marcel, who was tics believed these two are lists on the Internet I have a problem with the amazed. But he never said, guys were not being can- claiming over 300 UFO Project Mogul explanation. “Hey, Jess . . . it’s a weather did, it was we on the other crashes. It doesn’t cover the facts. balloon.” He just stood The Mogul staff, including there as mute as the moun- side who proved it. And Yes, I’ve seen those lists. yes, there are those who Charles Moore, had gone tains. Never said a word to And you make it quite clear in believe their stories are to Roswell to ask for help anyone about the identity of your book that you consider partially true and that they in tracking the balloons, this debris . . . that is, if he most of the claims to be dubi- were agents of disinforma- which means, of course, could actually tell what it ous. How many do you think tion. But no, I don’t think that they were aware of the was. Did he tell Col. Blan- so. At least we avoided are credible? project. The array con- chard when they got back? Gerald Anderson [who has Maybe two: Roswell and tained several balloons and No. Even if they were not in his chain of command, they also been discredited]. Shag Harbour. radar reflectors, equipment were working on the same investigation. He should have told them. According to the only published interview with Mac “I might point out that while skeptics Brazel [who originally reported the debris], he had first believed these two guys were not noticed it several weeks earlier, on June 14. But this being candid, it was we on the other was before the Kenneth Arnold sighting, and “flying saucers” side who proved it.” hadn’t been discovered yet, so he didn’t think anything of it. But by early July, in the wake of the Arnold sighting and of local sightings, Brazel thought that the unexplained

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INTERVIEW ]

debris might be significant, so he reported it. I interviewed his son Bill Brazel, who said that the debris was found near “I set a very high bar for the level of where the sheep were wa- tered. They had to go there evidence required. There are very every day or two to look after the sheep, and he said few authentic UFO cases. ” the debris was found in July. There was a lot of debris—he was complaining how long it took to pick it all up. This was too much sightings occurred hundreds to be a Mogul balloon. better arguments on this accept stories of UFO of miles north and east of the case. I now think that crashes. I set a very high Those Mogul balloons were city? From the description in bolides count for far more bar for the level of evi- pretty big, with hundreds of your book it sounds very UFO cases than I’d care dence required. There are feet of radar reflectors. much like a bolide meteor. to mention. very few authentic UFO There are some accounts of cases. How ever, some Yes, the Mogul arrays were Let’s talk about any other UFO hundreds of feet long, but anomalous observations, but skeptical explanations don’t cases, other than crashes, that fit the facts. Still, I’m get- there wasn’t all that much based on the majority of the you consider credible. ting more skeptical in my material in them: eight, ten accounts I think it probably old age. balloons and maybe half a was a bright meteor. [U.S. Air Force base in the United Kingdom] Rendle- dozen radar targets. It Let’s mention that your blog And what about Kecksburg, sham, [which was] not a wouldn’t have taken much is at www.kevinrandle.blog Pennsylvania? That claimed crash but a landing [in more than fifteen or twenty spot.com/. Kevin, if you ever UFO crash matches exactly 1980]. However, Larry minutes to collect all the get to San Diego, we need to with the Great Lakes Fireball Warren [who claims to stuff. And they had seen get together. We have a whole of December 9, 1965. have been involved, but weather balloons at other lot more to talk about. A number of people say this is disputed] is a credi- times. I don’t see a terrestrial I try to avoid California they saw the authorities re- bility problem. I don’t ac- explanation that covers all as much as possible. You moving an object from the cept the theory that the the facts. Every member of people are nuts out there! Blanchard’s staff [who] we forest, but others say they flash of light the witnesses interviewed—some had were at the reported crash saw was the Orford Ness Well, if your avoidance fails, died already—said the site and saw no military ac- lighthouse [Ian Ridpath’s we’ll get together. Thank you, recovered material was tivity or anything unusual. solution]. This case de- Kevin Randle. n extraterrestrial, with just one NASA said it might have serves more investigation. exception. Lt. Colonel been a Soviet spacecraft Robert Sheaffer, a CSI fellow, reentering the atmosphere. Is there anything else you is SKEPTICAL INQUIRER’s longtime Robert Barrow clough said want to say to the readers of that it was all a bunch of “Psychic Vibrations” colum- Jim Oberg has pretty well the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER? nist. He is author of UFO nonsense, according to a ruled out the “Soviet Satel- I read your magazine; it Sightings: The Evidence note he sent to Kent Jeffrey. lite” possibility. has some interesting stuff. (Prometheus Books) What about the one you’re There is no proof that I also watch Penn and and has a new blog at calling the Las Vegas crash in anything was recovered. Teller’s Bullshit; it’s great. www.BadUFOs.com. He lives 1962, although most of the Maybe the skeptics have I’m predisposed not to near San Diego, California.

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[ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow and curator of the Skeptiseum (online at www.skeptiseum.com).

‘Pop’ Culture: Patent Medicines Become Soda Drinks

he soda fountains of yesteryear— vored soda waters caught on. macist created a formula that he billed a particularly American phenom- Some early soda bottles, such as those as a cure-all and offered to the public. Tenon—were in drug stores for a for English ginger ale, had rounded bot- However, it was not actually marketed reason. Introduced in pharmacies at the toms, so they could not be stood upright. until Philadelphia pharmacist Charles end of the eighteenth century and in- This prevented their corks from drying Hires produced a liquid concentrate in creasing in the 1830s, they were an effec- out and shrinking, which kept the gas small bottles (see figure 3), introducing tive means of dispensing medications: pressure from causing them to “pop.”1 it at the Phila delphia Cen tennial Exhi- adding a small amount of flavoring Later “pop” bottles had patented stop- bition in 1876. By 1893 the Hires fam- along with some seltzer (effervescent pers (again, see figure 2), including the ily was selling bottled versions of their water) made medicine more palatable familiar one from 1891 still used today, carbonated drink, thus securing a place (New Orleans, n.d.; Mariani 1994, called the crown cork (a crimped metal in soft drink history (“History” 2010; 291). As part of my studies of snake oil cap with a cork liner) (Munsey 1970, “Root beer” 2010). One slogan was and other cure-alls (Nickell 1998, 2005, 101–10). “Join Health and Cheer/Drink Hires 2006)—which ranged over several years Rootbeer [sic]” (Munsey 1970, 274). and included collecting antique bottles Root Beer and Sarsaparilla Ironically, in time, root beer’s health- and ephemera and visiting such sites as Two plant roots particularly, sarsaparilla fulness was seriously questioned after the Coca-Cola museum—I was struck and sassafras (figure 1), were early recog- safrol (a substance in sassafras oil) was by the fact that several famous soft nized for their potent flavor and pre- found to cause cancer or permanent drinks had originated as patent medi- sumed medicinal properties. In 1830, in liver damage in laboratory animals. The cines, which in turn had their origin in his treatise on medical botany, Constan- U.S. Food and Drug Administration herbal and other folk remedies (see fig- tine Rafinesque described the American (FDA) banned sassafras oil in 1960, but ure 1). Pharmacists claimed the added sassafras tree (an aromatic member of the inventors soon discovered a process to ingredients “made medicines taste so laurel family) and its qualities, noting remove the harmful substance while good, people wanted them, whether they that “Indians use a strong decoction to preserving the flavor (“History” 2010). needed them or not, and that’s how soft purge and clear the body in the spring.” Another common ingredient of root drinks evolved” (New Orleans, n.d.). Sassafras has long been used as a tea and beer was sarsaparilla, which was origi- “home-remedy spring tonic and blood nally sold for medicinal purposes. As Advent of Soda ‘Pop’ purifier” (Rafinesque 1830). (I dug the early as 1835, the famous religious soci- Mineral water, including naturally car- root as a boy in Kentucky, seemingly ety, the Shakers, offered in their herb cat- bonated water (figure 2), has long been coming by my interest naturally: my alogs a syrup of sarsaparilla touted for a promoted as a curative for various ail- great, great grandparents, Harry and variety of ailments, including digestive ments. As early as the beginning of the Martha Mur phy, were Appalachian her - troubles, rheumatism, jaundice, “sec- sixteenth century, scientists tried to du- balists and folk doctors.) ondary syphilis,” and more. It contained plicate nature’s carbonation process. It Sassafras was an original, major in- not only sarsaparilla root but dandelion, fell to Dr. Joseph Priestley (discoverer gredient in many recipes for root beer, mandrake, Indian hemp, and other of oxygen) to advance the first practical which was brewed in the eighteenth roots, as well as juniper berries and addi- process in 1772, thus helping to launch century as a mildly alcoholic beverage. tional ingredients (Miller 1998, 84–85). the soda-water industry. In time, fla- Reportedly, in 1870 an unknown phar- Among many famous brands of suppos-

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edly curative sarsaparilla were Corbett’s (made by Shaker doctor Thomas Cor- bett), Hood’s, and Ayer’s (Fike 2006, 214–21).2 Like root beer, sarsaparilla evolved into a soft drink (figure 4), a flavored, carbonated concoction that was in time sold only for its taste (Sioux City Sarsa- parilla is a current major brand [“Sarsa - parilla” 2010]). Both drinks were original concoctions, predating colas and other popular soda drinks (“History” 2010). Other plant-extract-based drinks, such as birch beer (emerging in the 1880s to compete with root beer), ginger beer, and ginger ale, have histories paralleling root beer and sarsaparilla. Because ginger has been used for centuries for medicinal purposes, ginger ale predates most of the other medicinal soft drinks. Indeed, Vernors brand, said to have originated in 1866, has been called “the first U.S. soft drink” (“Gin- ger ale” 2010). Then there was Dr. Brown’s Cel-Ray, a celery tonic served in New York delicatessens from 1869 and sold as a bottled soda since 1886 (“Dr. Brown’s” 2010).

Moxie Among the earliest patent-medicine- turned-soft-drinks was a New England- based variety, now of limited sales but still remembered for the slang expression, “You’ve got a lot of Moxie”—meaning a Figure 1. Assortment of bottles representing antecedents or contemporaries of famous early soft drinks—like Coca-Cola and 7 UP—that began as patent medicines. Rearmost bottle: “Oil of Sassafras”; next row, left to right: lot of pluck or nerve. The drink was cre- “Elixir Kola-Nuces,” “Atwood’s Jaundice Bitters,” and “Cloverdale Lith-A-Limes/The Original Limes & Lithia”; next, ated by Dr. Augustin Thompson, who al- “Ayer’s Sarsaparilla”; and, in front, “The Shaker Extract of Roots or the Seigel Curative Syrup” (containing, among leged that it contained extracts from a many ingredients, gentian and sassafras). (Author’s photo of his collection) rare South American plant. Thompson claimed that the unnamed botanical was blend of bitter and sweet, a drink to sat- lanta and Fulton County had passed discovered by his “friend,” a Lieutenant isfy everyone’s taste.” Its unique flavor prohibition legislation, doctor and Moxie (“Moxie” 2010). Moxie was sup- has been attributed to a key ingredient, pharmacist John S. Pemberton created posedly a cure for “brain and nervous ex- “Gentian Root Extrac tives” (“Moxie” a non-alcoholic version of a coca wine, haustion, loss of manhood, imbecility 2010)—gentian root is an ingredient of then—accidentally it is said—one day and helplessness, softening of the brain, some types of bitters: a medicinal liquor added carbonation. The new drink was locomotor ataxia and insanity” (Klein made by steeping certain botanicals in soon marketed to other drug-store soda 1999). alcohol (Munsey 1970, 111–13; Balch fountains where carbonated water was Moxie was first formulated circa 2002, 70). (Again, see figure 1.) sold in the belief that it was healthful 1876, but, as its present advertising (seltzers were touted, for example, as a notes, it has been marketed “Since Coca-Cola cure for obesity [Munsey 1970, 103]). 1884,” by which time Thompson was This classic soft drink originated as a Pemberton claimed that his Coca-Cola selling the bottled drink as well as a patent medicine selling for five cents a cured such diseases as dyspepsia and bulk syrup intended for soda fountains. glass at Jacob’s pharmacy in Atlanta, impotence (Munsey 1970, 105; “Coca- Moxie was described as “a delicious Georgia, on May 8, 1886. Because At- Cola” 2010). It was billed early as “The

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Ideal Nerve and Brain Tonic. It res sion, Pepsi went bankrupt (largely Cures Headache, Invigorates the due to speculation on sugar prices System” (CNBC 2010). Pember- that fluctuated wildly in the wake of ton also claimed the drink cured World War I) and its assets and morphine addiction. trademark were sold. A second In fact, the coca leaf and kola bankruptcy just eight years later put nut (figure 1) used in the drink the company in the hands of a candy yielded the addictive substances co- manufacturer, Loft Inc., whose retail caine and caffeine—hence the stores had soda fountains. Loft’s name Coca-Cola. However, in president, Charles Guth, was miffed time, the small amount of cocaine at Coke’s refusal to lower the price was reduced and finally eliminated on its syrup and intended to replace at the turn of the twentieth century Coke with Pepsi. He had his (Mariani 1994, 291). (The current chemists reformulate the syrup for- product contains only coca flavor- mula. In 1936, Pepsi introduced a ing.) Caffeine remained, but in double-sized, twelve-ounce bottle 1912 an amended U.S. Pure Food for ten cents, then responded to slow and Drug Act required that such sales by cutting the price to five “habit-forming” and “deleterious” cents. During the 1940s, a new pres- substances in a product be listed on ident, Walter Mack, targeted the its label (“Coca-Cola” 2010). African American market with eth- Figure 2. Carbonated water required bottles with strong closures, Until 1894, the drink was sold nically positive ads. In time, Pepsi like this one from historic Saratoga Springs, New York. (Author’s ex clusively at soda fountains. How- be came a serious rival of Coke photo of his collection) ever, on March 12 of that year, the (“Pepsi” 2010). first Coca-Cola was sold in bottles provided by the Biedenharn Candy Dr Pepper Company in Vicksburg, Mississippi. Another popular American soda By 1895 the product was distributed was first served in about 1885 in throughout the United States and Waco, Texas. A concoction created its territories. Cans of the drink by Charles Alderton, the pharmacist were first marketed in 1955 (New in Morrison’s Old Corner Drug Orleans, n.d.; “Coca-Cola” 2010). Store, the drink was first dubbed a “Waco.” Alderton gave the recipe to Pepsi-Cola the owner, Wade Mor rison, who Coca-Cola’s main rival began as a christened it Dr. Pepper (seemingly carbonated soft drink first called after Dr. Charles T. Pepper of Chris- “Brad’s Drink” after its creator, tiansburg, Virginia, where Morrison Caleb Bradham of New Bern, once worked as a young pharmacy North Carolina. At his pharmacy clerk). there in 1898, he began to concoct a Dr. Pepper was initially sold as an fountain drink that was intended to energy drink and “brain tonic.” The both aid digestion and boost energy. drink was not nationally marketed Its main ingredients—pepsin (a di- until 1904. In the 1950s, the period gestive enzyme) and kola nuts—ap- punctuating “Dr” was dropped. This pear to have prompted its later was for stylistic reasons as well as to name, Pepsi-Cola. Its trademark ap- eliminate any suggestion of a med- Figure 3. Hires, one of the original root beers, was sold as early plication was approved in 1903, and ical link to the product, which was as 1876 in a concentrated “Household Extract” form (front), as Bradham moved his operation to a called “The Friendly Pepper Upper.” was Hires ginger ale, and was also later marketed as a carbonated beverage (left, right). Both “pop” bottles shown had crown caps; rented warehouse where, the follow- Courts have held that Dr Pepper is the one on the left dates from about the end of the nineteenth ing year, the drink began to be not a “cola” but a distinctively fla- century, and the other from after May 26, 1936, when that bottle shipped out in six-ounce bottles. vored drink. During the early 1980s, was patented. The latter contained “plant extractives” of birch, sassafras, licorice, sarsaparilla, ginger, and so on, as well as car- The first logo was created in 1905, after the Dr Pepper company bonated water, sugar, dextrose, caramel, “and flavor.” (Author’s then redesigned in 1926 and 1929. became insolvent, the Federal Trade photo of his collection) In 1931, during the Great Dep - Commission blocked its acquisition

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by Coca-Cola; it then merged with dangerous, but over the years the harm- Seven Up (to create Dr Pep per/Seven ful effects have been rather consistently Up, Inc.) (“Dr Pepper” 2010). addressed. We can now turn our attention elsewhere: to the dubious health 7 UP and medical claims that continue to St. Louis businessman Charles L. Grigg proliferate under the term “alternative launched a new soft drink just two weeks medicine”—often old-style quackery, prior to the stock market crash of 1929. even if newly bottled. n Originally called “Bib-label Lithiated Lemon-Lime Soda,” it contained lith - Acknowledgments ium citrate. Lithium is an element found Kudos to my wife, Diana Gawen Harris, for in many mineral springs (mineral water suggesting the title “‘Pop’ Culture” and to was often bottled and sold for its al- my daughter, Cherie Roycroft, for the gift of the rare Kola-Nuces bottle shown in fig- legedly healthful properties), and it was ure 1. I am again grateful to CFI Libraries once prescribed for many ailments, in- Director Timothy Binga and librarian Lisa cluding gout, rheumatism, and kidney Nolan for their valuable research assistance. stones. It did little good for these problems, but it is known as a mood-stabiliz- Notes ing drug. In marketing his drink, Grigg 1. English poet Robert Southey in 1812 described ginger ale as “a nectar, between soda water and used the slogan, “Takes the ‘ouch’ out of ginger beer, and called pop because ‘pop goes the cork’ grouch.” The drink’s name was later when it is drawn” (qtd. in Munsey 1970, 104–5). changed to “7 UP”—supposedly the “7” 2. Although sarsaparilla continues to be pro- Figure 4. Sarsaparilla famously transitioned from a moted by naturopaths and other herbalists as a indicated its seven-ounce bottle and the medicine to a soda drink. With the nineteenth-century curative for “a wide range of systemic problems” Hood’s bottle (left)—from C.I. Hood & Co., Apothe- “UP” the rising bubbles from its strong and is allegedly “especially useful for rheumatoid caries, Lowell, Massa chusetts—is a flyer advertising carbonation (Klein 1999; “7 UP” 2010; arthritis” (Naturopathic 1995, 119), peer-re- that brand as a “cure” for “Rheumatism,” as well as viewed research generally fails to support the “Dyspepsia, Biliousness, Sick Headache, Indigestion, Nickell 2005). claims (“Sarsaparilla” 2010). Like other such “health” drinks, 7 UP General Debility, Catarrh & Kidney and Liver Com- plaints.” The soda version (right), from Rochester, New had problems. For example, toxic levels References York, dates from after 1903. (Author’s photo of his col- of lithium, which is still used to treat Balch, Phyllis A. 2002. Prescription for Herbal lection) manic depression, are rather near its ther- Healing. New York: Avery. CNBC Original Productions. The Real Story Be- lecting Bottles. New York: Hawthorn Books. apeutic levels (Nickell 2005). By the hind the Real Thing. Aired March 13, 2010. Naturopathic Handbook of Herbal Formulas, 4th ed. mid-1940s, lithium was fortunately no www.cnbc.com. 1995. Ayer, MA: Herbal Research Pub - longer listed on the 7 UP label. Over the “Coca-Cola.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. lications. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ New Orleans Pharmacy Museum. n.d. 19th Cen- years the beverage has been reformulated wiki/Coca-cola. tury Patent Medicines. Reprinted in Klein many times: A diet version (called “Dr. Brown’s.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. 1999. “Like”) was discontinued in 1969 after Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ Nickell, Joe. 1998. Peddling snake oil. Skeptical Briefs 8(4) (December): 1–2, 13. cyclamate sweetener was banned; the wiki/Dr._Brown’s. “Dr Pepper.” Wikipedia. Accessed March 15, ———. 2005. Healing waters: Spas. Skeptical drink’s high sodium content was re duced 2010. Available online at http://en.wikipedia. Briefs 15(3) (September): 5–7. by substituting potassium citrate for org/wiki/Dr_Pepper. ———. 2006. Snake oil: A guide for connois- seurs. Skeptical Briefs 16(3) (September): 7–8. sodium citrate; and 7 UP’s claim to be Fike, Richard E. 2006. The Bottle Book: A Com- prehensive Guide to Historic, Embossed Medi- “Pepsi.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. Avail - “100% Natural” was dropped after the cine Bottles. Chadwell, NJ: Blackburn Press. able online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ Center for Science in the Public Interest “Ginger ale.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 7, 2010. wiki/Pepsi. Rafinesque, Constantine. 1830. Medical Flora, a threatened to sue on the grounds that its Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Ginger_ale. Manual of the Medical Botany of the United high-fructose corn syrup resulted from a “History of Rootbeer.” Accessed March 12, 2010. States. . . . In The Magic of Herbs in Daily Liv- manufacturing process (“7 UP” 2010; Available online at www.essortment.com/all ing, by Richard Lucas, 71. West Nyack, NY: Parker Publishing, 1978. Klein 1999). /historyrootbeer_rhnc.htm. Klein, Victor C. 1999. New Orleans Ghosts II. “Root beer.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. Metairie, LA: Lycanthrope Press. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ * * * Mariani, John F. 1994. The Dictionary of Amer ican wiki/Root_beer. “Sarsaparilla.” Wikipedia. Accessed March 12, As these major examples show, popular Food and Drink. New York: Hearst Books. Miller, Amy Bess. 1998. Shaker Medicinal Herbs: 2010. Available online at http://en.wikipedia. modern soft drinks evolved from late A Compendium of History, Lore, and Uses. org/wiki/Sarsaparilla. nineteenth- and early twentieth-cen- Pownal, VT: Storey Books. “Sassafras.” Wikipedia. Accessed March 12, 2010. Available online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ tury patent medicines. Ironically, the “Moxie.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. Avail able online at http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Sassafras. touted medicinal effects were actually wiki/Moxie. “7 UP.” Wikipedia. Accessed April 6, 2010. Avail able online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_up. somewhere between nonexistent and Munsey, Cecil. 1970. The Illustrated Guide to Col-

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[NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and co-founder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

The Ruler Incident

ome time ago, the James Randi ‘A Very Self-Sacrificing Lady’ tigators want to be watched just as the Educational Foundation came In the summer of 1924, the biggest mediums are, so as to have even- into possession of a bundle of let- handed justice. I have known an inves- S thing in psychical research was a new tigator, whose name is quoted by the ters written by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. medium, who was powerful as well as at- public, [who stated] in a burst out of The letters are of particular interest to tractive, named “Margery” (Mina Cran- confidence that he would not hesitate researchers of the occult, with topics don). She had entered the Scien tific to put muslin in a medium’s pockets if ranging from the Cotting ley Fairies to American competition and was consid- there by he could expose her. the Margery investigation. ered to be the likeliest winner of the I should think that after your experience over here, and the subse- The Margery investigation began prize—until Houdini sat with her. In quent experiences you had in America, when Scientific American offered, in its fact, he was immediately able to discern you cannot yourself have the slightest December 1922 issue, a prize of five her true methods, and he promptly re- doubt of the preternatural origin thousand dollars to any medium who vealed them to the world. Conan Doyle, of these phenomena. Nothing is could produce psychic phenomena that who had met Margery and had endorsed super natural. could be declared as such by the unan- her powers, considered Houdini’s reve- all send best regards imous vote of a committee of five ap- lations trash. Bird was of the same opin- A Conan Doyle. (Conan Doyle, n.d.) pointed investigators. The committee ion; he also ap peared to be convinced of consisted of psychologist Dr. William Margery’s honesty. McDougall, of Harvard Uni versity; The official report of the committee A second, undated note was pinned to physicist Dr. Daniel Com stock, of the on the Margery case took six months to the September 9 letter: complete. Committee members had Massachusetts Institute of Technology; I have only just read the minutes of Dr. Walter F. Prince, Research Officer been sworn to reveal nothing about the the Houdini meetings. It is as clear of the Amer ican Soci ety for Psychical sittings until the publication of the re- as daylight that the ruler was put in Research; well-known psychical report; but Bird, who was not restricted by the box, and the rubber in the appa- searcher Hereward Carrington; and such a burden, repeatedly told journal- ratus by someone who wished to show that the medium was fraudu- Harry Houdini, the great magician. Mr. ists what Houdini called “black lies.” For example, Bird claimed that Houdini lent. And who could this be save J. Malcolm Bird, then associate editor Houdini himself since it only oc - of Scientific Amer ican, was appointed as had not allowed anyone to examine the curred when he was present. Surely secretary of the committee. apparatus used during the tests and the Committee will not stand for Bird had approached the psychic stated that Houdini had manipulated this, and will protect a very self-sacrificing lady against such attempts world with a more than open mind, and the apparatus in such a way as to render real phenomena impossible. These at- upon her honour. I trust the matter he appeared to be very willing to en- will be most fully ventilated in the dorse its reality—even lacking convinc- tacks on Houdini elated Conan Doyle, Press. It is a complete exposure—but ing proof. Scientific American’s editor who wrote Bird the following letter, not of the medium. dated September 9: put Bird in touch with Sir Arthur ACD Dear Bird Conan Doyle, one of Spiritualism’s As Walter [F. Prince] said “You have greatest propagandists, and they began Congratulations on your stand against all got to die,” and will then be faced to correspond. Houdini. I have always said that inves- by these actions. (Conan Doyle, n.d.)

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‘The Boss Told Me to Do It’ The ruler incident Conan Doyle mentions refers to an episode that happened when Bird was absent from the séance rooms. That particular séance began with Margery confined in a cabinet with armholes, with Houdini and Prince at her A search of the cabinet revealed sides, holding her hands. Houdini particularly insisted that Prince never let go the presence of a collapsible of the medium’s hand until the séance was over. This provoked Margery to ask carpenter’s ruler. But the question Houdini what he had on his mind. remained: who put it there? “Do you really want to know?” asked Houdini. “Yes,” said the medium. “Well, I will tell you. In case you have smuggled anything in to the cabinet-box you can not now conceal it, as both your hands are secured and that the armholes in the sides of the Keating had seen an unpublished as far as they are concerned you are manuscript in this author’s collection helpless.” cabinet be boarded up, which would allow her to move her hands freely in- in which Houdini, while praising “Do you want to search me?” she Keating as a magician, had com- asked. side the cabinet. mented in unflattering terms on “No, never mind, let it go,” said Margery rejected these accusations Keating’s abilities as an investigator of Houdini. “I am not a physician.” and accused Houdini, suggesting that psychic phenomena. In this writer’s Soon after, Walter appeared in his assistant, Jim Collins, had hidden opinion, the story of Collins’s admis- the circle saying, “Houdini, you are sion is sheer fiction. very clever indeed but it won’t work. the ruler to discredit her. However, I suppose it was an accident those Collins was interrogated that same The incident remains doubtful to this things were left in the cabinet?” night without Houdini present, and he day. It could have been revealing if, at the “What was left in the cabinet?” took an oath that he did not place any asked the magician. time, a laboratory had examined the ruler “Pure accident, was it? You were ruler inside the cabinet, had never seen found inside the box for fingerprints or not here but your assistant was.” Wal- that ruler, and that his own ruler was in other useful traces. But as it turned out, ter went on and then stated that a ruler his pocket. According to writer William the Scientific American committee was not would be found in the cabinet under a Lindsay Gresham, Collins actually ad- that scientific after all. n pillow at the medium’s feet. He then mitted to hiding the ruler: “I chucked it accused Houdini of having had his as- in the box myself. The Boss told me to References sistant put it there to throw suspicion on his sister. Then he finished with a do it. He wanted to fix her good” (Gre- Christopher, Milbourne. (1969) 1970. Houdini: violent outburst in which he ex - sham 1959). The Untold Story. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell Company. Reprint, New York: claimed, “Houdini, you Goddamned However, Milbourne Christopher, Pocket Books. son of a bitch, get the hell out of here magician and magic historian, ex presses Conan Doyle, Arthur. n.d. Letters. James Randi and never come back. If you don’t, I doubts about this incident in Houdini: Educational Foundation, Fort Lauderdale, FL. will!” (Houdini 1924; Polidoro 2001) Gresham, William Lindsay. (1959) 1968. Hou- The Untold Story (1969): dini: The Man Who Walked Through Walls. A search of the cabinet revealed the New York: Henry Holt. Reprint, New York: presence of a collapsible carpenter’s The source of this story, though not MacFadden Books. Houdini, Harry. 1924. Houdini Exposes the Tricks ruler. But the question remained: who given by Gresham, was Fred Keat ing, a magician who had been a guest of Used by the Boston Medium “Margery.” New put it there? Houdini claimed it was York: Adams Press. the Crandons in their house on Lime Margery. By sticking the ruler through Polidoro, Massimo. 2001. Final Sèance: The Strange Street at the time Carrington was in- Friendship Between Houdini and Conan Doyle. the neck opening, the magician ex- vestigating the medium. Keating, Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books. plained, she could have easily rung the however, was not unbiased. Several Silverman, Kenneth. 1996. Houdini!!!: The Career bell. Also, the medium had suggested days before Gresham spoke to him, of Ehrich Weiss. New York: HarperCollins.

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[ THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI Massimo Pigliucci is professor of philosophy at the City University of New York–Lehman College, a fellow of the American Association for the Advance ment of Science, and author of Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. His essays can be found at www.rationallyspeaking.org.

Historical vs. Nomological Sciences

recently read an interesting paper by cause they are not determined exactly a historical contingency, not the re- Walter Bock (“Multiple Explana - by natural laws (though, of course, their quired outcome of Newtonian or any Itions in Darwinian Evolutionary happening does not violate natural other mechanics. Theory,” Acta Biotheoretica, March 2010, laws). Typically, evolutionary biology Evolutionary biology is often consid- 58[1]: 65–79) that brought to my mind and the closely related field of paleon- ered a historical—not nomological—sci- a fundamental distinction between types tology are considered the standard ex- ence, but Bock in the aforementioned of scientific theories: what philosophers amples of fields where historical, but paper makes an interesting case that call “nomological” vs. historical theories. not nomological, theories hold sway. standard evolutionary theory is in fact a Nomology comes from the Greek nomos, For example, one of the most momen- compound of five distinct sub-theories, meaning “law,” and logos, of course stand- tous discoveries in paleontology over four of which are nomological in nature, ing for “the study of.” So, nomological the past few decades has been the thor- with the remaining one being historical. theories are those based on law-like phe- ough documentation of a series of mass The five theories are: 1) an account of nomena, like Newton’s mechanics, Ein- extinction events, at least some of heredity to explain how information is stein’s theory of relativity, or quantum which have been caused by the impact passed from one generation to another; mechanics (hint: it isn’t a coincidence of an extraterrestrial body. These his- 2) the idea that evolution occurs gradu- that most examples of nomological the- torical episodes clearly do not violate ally rather than in large jumps; 3) expla- ories are found in physics or chemistry). any known law of nature, but neither nations of how speciation (i.e., the origin Historical theories, on the other are they necessarily entailed by any of new species) occurs, leading to diver- hand, deal with events that could have such law. They might or might not have gence among groups of organisms; 4) the followed different paths, precisely be- happened, and the fact that they did is theories of mutation and natural selection as explanations for the existence of differences among individual beings; and 5) common descent, the idea that all living things share common ancestors. Ac- cording to Bock, only the last theory is truly a historical hypothesis; all the oth- What do we mean by a ers have the characteristics of natural laws and are therefore nomological. “law of nature”? It is a I’m not sure I am convinced by the specifics of Bock’s proposal. To begin deceptively simple question with, it depends on what we mean by a “law of nature,” a deceptively simple once you start thinking about it. question once you start thinking about it. Typically, scientists think of laws of nature as describing the behavior of matter without exceptions, so much so that a suspension of the laws of nature is thought of as a miracle—i.e., the result

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of the intervention of a supernatural natural selection becomes not just a All of the above makes for an addi- being. Yet, as Lee Smolin documents in natural law but a logical law! That is, it tion to the skeptic’s toolbox when one is his engaging The Trouble with Physics looks like given certain conditions, nat- challenged on evolution, particularly be- (2006), some physicists these days are ural selection logically has to follow. cause such challenges are often framed contemplating the possibility that law- This is a more powerful concept of nat- as criticisms of evolutionary biology as a like theories, such as Einstein’s general ural law than the laws of physics them- “merely” historical science, which every- relativity, may hold only for certain spa- selves—after all, physicists have (so far) one “knows” is below par compared to tial or temporal ranges; that is, not uni- not been able to derive quantum me- the queen of sciences, physics. Try out versally. We don’t know whether that is chanics or relativity from logic. These the nomological-logical necessity take the case or not, but its possibility high- concepts just happen to describe the on natural selection the next time you lights the fact that even physicists don’t way the universe works, but the uni- argue with a creationist, and let me necessarily think of natural laws as, well, verse could have been otherwise. know what happens. n laws. The first four sub-theories of evolution listed by Bock do seem law-like in the sense that they apply to pretty much anywhere within the biosphere of planet Earth (though some biologists Where can you hear the leading voices of skepticism and science on a weekly would be quick to point out that the basis? On Point of Inquiry, the Center for Inquiry’s podcast and radio show, occasional exception can be found for which is now one of the most popular science programs online. almost all of them). But we have no Listen for free at www.pointofinquiry.orgtoday! reason to think that a different kind of biology isn’t possible on another planet, Each week, Point of Inquiry brings you incisive interviews, or indeed could not have evolved on features, and commentary, focusing on the three research areas of the Earth itself given different contingencies Center for Inquiry: pseudoscience and the paranormal; alternative medicine; early on in the history of life. Indeed, the and religion, ethics, and society. only component of evolutionary theory that many philosophers do agree looks In addition to new shows every Friday, the entire archive of past episodes very much like a law is the principle of can be accessed online at www.pointofinquiry.org. natural selection. It can be rephrased as a piece of deductive reasoning where if Previous popular guests include: certain conditions hold (heritable vari- RICHARD DAWKINS | SAM HARRIS ation for fitness-related traits; limited NEIL DEGRASSE TYSON | ANN DRUYAN resources), then it logically follows that natural selection would evolve a given and many more! system, no matter what the specific Hosted by (historically contingent) characteristics of that system are (e.g., whether the hereditary material is RNA, DNA, or artificially generated computer code). Things get even more complicated, though, if one thinks about the implications of framing natural selection as Chris Mooney Robert M. Price Karen Stollznow an if-then statement. Assuming this is www.PointofInquiry.org the correct way of thinking about it,

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[ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or co-author of five books, including Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries.

Left Brained or Right Brained?

I remember you debunking many of the claims about the Brain Gym program (“Exercising the Brain Gym,” SI, September/October 2009), but what about the “left brained versus right brained” theories and : claims? Are those valid? Q —M. Martin

The human brain is di vided hemispheres differ in their activity continually on both “left-brain” and into two hemispheres, and when people engage in various men- “right-brain” tasks. Unless the brain is people can be categorized tal tasks. (Lilienfeld et al. 2010, damaged, there isn’t even a good way to 26–27) by which half of the brain force it to use one side or the other— they most often use.“Right- But before we read too much into the brain will use whatever parts it brained” people tend to be artistic, intu- this information, we should understand needs to perform a task. As noted in itive, and in touch with their feminine that Enhancing Human Performance: Issues, side; “left-brained” people are more log- the two halves of the brain differ in Theories, and Techniques, a book pub- ical, analytical, and in touch with their how they process tasks rather than lished by the National Academy of Sci- masculine side. what they process. Let’s take lan- ences press, there “is no direct evidence That’s the story anyway, according to guage, for example. The left hemi- that differential hemispheric utilization pop culture pundits, New Age wisdom, sphere is better at the specifics of speech, such as grammar and word can be trained” (Druckman and Swets and authors who promote books and generation, whereas the right hemi- 1988, 110). seminars promising to help harness un- sphere is better at intonation and So it’s true that there are two hemi- tapped mind power. It’s a widely held emphases of speech. ... The right spheres of the brain, but if someone idea that holds a certain simplistic, dual- brain is better at dealing with a gen- tries to sell you a book or program istic charm, but is it true? Are some peo- eral sense of space, whereas the cor- responding areas in the left brain claiming to “exercise” or “boost” one ple left brained and others right brained? become more active when the person targeted part, watch out! n The authors of the book 50 Great locates objects in specific places. In Myths of Popular Psychology list the left- many cases, it’s not that one hemi- References brain/right-brain theory as their second sphere or the other can’t perform a Druckman, Daniel, and John A. Swets. 1988. En- myth about the brain: given task; it’s just that one of them hancing Human Performance: Issues, Theories, can perform it faster and better than and Tech niques. Washington, DC: National There’s good evidence that the two the other. (Lilienfeld et al. 2010, Acad emy Press. sides of the brain, called hemispheres, 26–27) Lilienfeld, Scott O., Steven Jay Lynn, John Rus- differ in their functions. For example, cio, and Barry L. Beyerstein. 2010. Some peo- different abilities are more affected Thus there are few, if any, exclusively ple are left-brained, others are right-brained. by injuries to one side of the brain or specifically “right-brain” or “left- In 50 Great Myths of Popular Psychology: Shat- tering Wide spread Misconcep tions about Human than the other, and brain imaging brain” abilities. Indeed, the two hemi- techniques demonstrate that the Behavior, 25–28. Chichester, UK: Wiley- spheres communicate extensively and Blackwell.

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[ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER “Psychic Vibrations” has appeared in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER for the past thirty years. Sheaffer is also author of UFO Sightings: The Evi dence (Prometheus 1998). His website is at www.debunker.com.

A Human Head on a Cow

he Evolver Social Movement (ESM) is a New Age cult-like Tgroup dedicated to “the evolutionary transformation of humanity” that promises a “new planetary culture based on ecological values, creative collabora- tion, and conscious evolution.” Though this description may make it sound like a run-of-the-mill New Age organization, the ESM is casting its net far wider than your usual “consciousness transformation” group (which is typically little more than a chatty social club, albeit one that usually makes money for its leaders). The ESM has claimed for itself quite a large footprint of dubious terri- tory. Subjects covered recently on its website (www.realitysandwich.com) include crop circles, UFO sightings, psychedelic drugs (which supposedly have the power to “open doors that have been closed”), and “the healing power of anger.” But to get an idea of how utterly far- out this group really is, read the article “The Tin-Foil Hat Crowd: Daniel Pinchbeck, U.F.O.’s and the Evolver Movement” by Nicholas Powers in the August 8, 2010, Indypendent (http:// tinyurl.com/24nfe9n). Pinchbeck, the former editor of Open City, is a well- known author and member of the New York literati. Of him, Powers writes: He felt empty but ignored it until his friend overdosed on heroin. Pinch -

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posed UFO abductees, and Richard “[Richard Dolan] was saying Dolan, historian and UFO author, who has hosted the TV series SciFi Investi - that some people on this planet gates (see “Sci Fi Investi gates, Finds Only Pseudoscience,” SI, March/April are less human than others. 2007). Powers describes how Dolan talked of aliens creating a hybrid-race I reflexively snarled. to take over the world and his words struck something in me. He was say- So what should we do? ing that some people on this planet are less human than others. I reflex- Force people to get DNA testing? ively snarled. So what should we do? Force people to get DNA testing? Wear arm-bands with a blue star? Wear arm-bands with Force them to live in alien ghettos a blue star?”—Nicholas Powers and maybe gas them? Powers is very sensitive to the political implications of this bizarre belief— and with good reason. If it is widely believed that some persons are not fully human, a new kind of witch hunt becomes a frightening possibility.

beck fled to the Amazon to drink One woman screamed, “People who * * * potions from shamans to cure him- have been abducted have increased self of nihilism before he died like his paranormal abilities.” There hasn’t been a UFO book on the friend. Those dizzy vomit soaked Another said, “I’ve seen the labs, best-seller lists for quite a while, prob- trips became his book Breaking Open ably not since Philip Corso’s 1997 The the Head which made him a counter- they are making human alien hybrids culture guru. Now he hosts Evolver and people must be told!” Day After Roswell (co-authored by the events, circled by mostly white, well- Pinchbeck then introduced Bill same William “Human-Head-on-a- off audiences who look to him for Birnes, the host of History Channel’s Cow” Birnes I de scribed earlier). And meaning. [Pinchbeck is the editorial UFO Hunters and the publisher of UFO before that, you’d probably have to go director of ESM’s web magazine.] back to Whitley Strieber’s And he gives it to them; shaman Magazine, the largest-circulation maga- Transforma - drug rituals, Mayan prophecies and a zine of its kind. Powers describes Birnes’s tion in 1988. But this past August, a suspicion of reality that adds up to comments to the meeting’s audience: new UFO book, UFOs: Generals, Pilots, escapism. Our world is a wreck but and Government Officials Go on the Pinchbeck has them look outside of The wrinkled raspy man began his Record, by journalist Leslie Kean, it for a truth that can heal it, and the gothic tale, “There’s a veil of fear. If crazier that truth the better. you dare mention UFOs you are reached number 30 on the New York marginalized. No one will deal with Times best-seller list for nonfiction Powers describes an Evolvers meeting you.” But Birnes is brave and tells us hardcovers. Like the great majority of hosted by Pinchbeck titled “Aliens that UFO wreckage has been turned mass-market UFO books, it is entirely among Us,” which Powers attended in into modern technology like F-16 one-sided, breathlessly repeating the jets using “cloaking devices” to disap- New York City. He describes how the pear. He just flows with crazy Penta - bizarre but exciting claims made by panelists talked about U.F.O. wreck- gon conspiracies, men screaming in UFO proponents that are backed up age and aliens fusing a human head the mountain lab as aliens attacked not by evidence but by claims alone. on a cow. I looked at the audience, or aliens fusing a human head on a Few if any of the UFO cases in assuming they weren’t buying it until cow’s body. [So that’s what the aliens Kean’s book are new. Cases already well a woman asked, “Who here has had have been doing with all those cows contact with U.F.O.’s?” Like an army they’ve abducted!] “After we aired known in the UFO literature are lifting their spears, everyone raised the photos there was major payback,” warmed up and served with a little gar- their arms. Faces shined with bright his voice was red-hot. “You’ll be pro- nish. If you’ve been following the UFO defiance. Near the back wall a man in tected they said but I hope you en- literature of the past few decades, there joyed your show because it’s a bright psychedelic shirt waved both is very little in this book that you hands and danced. cancelled.” haven’t already seen. Despite her back- Powers’s thought was: “I’m in a room of Also on the UFO panel was Will iam ground as an investigative journalist crazy people.” Gibbs, a therapist who works with sup- (and she admits to being an advocacy

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journalist of the “progressive” kind), when it comes to UFOs, Kean some- When it comes to UFOs, Kean how can’t distinguish between a fact and a claim. So not surprisingly, she finds no somehow can’t distinguish reason to investigate these claims, completely ignoring the rich skeptical liter- between a fact and a claim. ature on the very cases she trumpets before the media. Look in the book’s So not surprisingly, index, and the names you will not find are Philip J. Klass, Donald Menzel, or she finds no reason to any other well-known UFO skeptic. Only the pro-UFO side was invited to investigate these claims. this tea party. Kean has been hitting the interview circuit big time, appearing on Fox News, the Colbert Report, NPR, MSNBC, and so forth. She has been interviewed by U.S. government and the intelligent civilization living under the surface Whitley Strieber, Michio Kaku, and of Mars.” many other talk-radio hosts. Kean’s background is that of a Webre writes that in her Exopolitic- “muckraking” journalist, not a UFOlo- sTV interview, “Ms. Kean states she is gist, and thus she apparently does not not aware of reliable whistle blower or perceive the quicksand before stepping documentary evidence of anti-gravity into it. She has stepped into “exopoli- UFOs of U.S. military intelligence. tics,” the “political implications of the How ever, she states, she is open to re- extraterrestrial presence”—which is one viewing substantial and reliable evi- of the wildest branches of contemporary dence of U.S. black budget anti-gravity UFOlogy, as I’ve illustrated in several UFOs if that is made available to her.” recent columns. Recently Kean sat Webre would like to include among down for a sixty-minute interview with those appearing before Congress “whistle - exopolitics proponent Alfred Lambre- blowers such as Michael Relfe, a former mont Webre, in which Kean revealed U.S. Armed Serviceman who states he that she plans to approach Congress spent twenty years on a U.S. secret base and the Obama administration to press on Mars, and Aaron McCollum, who for UFO disclosure (http://tinyurl.com states he routinely de ployed in U.S. mil- Kean comes to no conclusion about /WebreKean). She also proposed the itary anti-gravity UFOs.” However, what UFOs really are, and she says she creation of a small UFO agency within Kean suggested that it’s not good strat- is “agnostic” about that point. Webre the U.S. government. Kean expressed egy to offer up tales like that without doesn’t think that’s a good idea: disappointment with the UFO docu- proof because of the danger of increasing ments released thus far under the Free- One immediate outcome of Ms. the ridicule factor, so one must be “very dom of Information Act and in other Kean’s ‘militant agnosticism about discriminating” about what information whether any UFOs have any extra- one presents. And apparently that “dis- circumstances. “We’re not going to get terrestrial origin, neither believing the ones we want,” she said, referring to nor rejecting this’ is to de-link UFOs crimination” also requires ignoring all the “National Secur ity” documents. She and extraterrestrial life, and thereby messy skeptical analyses of her favorite has no doubt whatever that secret doc- facilitate the continued truth em- UFO cases that might cloud up the uments exist, hidden away in the Penta- bargo around the U.S. government’s pretty picture she’s trying to present to secret human-extraterrestrial liaison the government and to the media. n gon or wherever, that reveal govern ment programs of long-standing. knowledge of the existence of UFOs The existence of long-standing human-extraterrestrial liaison pro- Check out Robert Sheaﬀer's new blog, and their true origin. The release of such Bad UFOs (www.BadUFOs.com). supposed documents has been the Holy grams has been documented to a cer- tainty by the standards of the law of It is the ﬁrst blog covering new Grail of UFOlogists for at least fifty evidence, through whistleblower and and recent UFO-related reports years, and it’s always been just around documentary evidence, such as the and activities that is written by the corner. strategic relationship between the an experienced UFO skeptic.

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[ THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE STEVEN NOVELLA Steven Novella, MD, is assistant professor of neurology at Yale School of Medicine, the host of the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, author of the NeuroLogica blog, executive editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog, and president of the New England Skeptical Society.

Magnetic Healing: An Old Scam That Never Dies

agnetic charms, bracelets, in - of these rocks given the scientific knowl- It then seemed natural that because soles, and braces remain popu- edge of the time, so they came up with living things have an energy and Mlar and are sold with claims fanciful explanations like “minerals have essence, and certain rocks contain an that they improve athletic performance, souls too.” This was compatible with the energy and essence, that such rocks relieve arthritis pain, in crease energy, general belief that everything has an could be used to heal illness—to trans- and pretty much treat whatever symp- “essence.” fer their energy to a living being. Even toms you might have. These products It was also observed that this mag- today, this idea has an emotional and may seem modern and high-tech, but netic property can be transferred. even rational appeal. Who wouldn’t similar devices and claims have been Socrates wrote: “That stone not only at- want to be healed by the equivalent of around for centuries. tracts iron rings, but imparts to them a McCoy’s medical scanner, which non- The notion that magnets can be used similar power of attracting other rings; invasively uses invisible and painless for healing has existed since humans and sometimes you may see many pieces energy fields to return our tissues to discovered them. Several ancient cul- of iron and rings suspended from one health at the cellular level. When we tures, such as those of Egypt, Greece, another to form quite a long chain; and fantasize about future medicine, that is all of them derive their power of suspen- and China, discovered natural magnetic what we imagine. It is no surprise, then, sion from the original stone” (quoted in rocks, or lodestones. People had a hard that through the centuries magnetic Keithley 1999). time explaining the unusual properties healing has been very popular—and its popularity has only increased with advancing scientific understanding of Through the centuries magnetic magnetism and the eventual discovery of electromagnetism. healing has been very popular— The relationship between medical academia and popular marketing hasn’t and its popularity has only changed in hundreds of years either. In 1600, William Gilbert wrote De Mag - increased with advancing nete, in which he described de tailed experiments with magnets and electricity scientific understanding of and systematically dis proved hundreds of popular health claims for such treat- magnetism and the eventual ments. This established debunking of magnetic therapy continued into the discovery of electromagnetism. seventeenth century with Thomas Browne (Macklis 1993). Con sidering how primitive scientific methods and

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medical knowledge were at this time, nostic and therapeutic purposes. But the claims of magnetic healers must this potential also opens up a market have been especially fantastical and for countless quack magnetic devices their treatments remarkably worthless. that exploit this appeal. You can buy But “The Man” was not able to keep what are essentially refrigerator mag- magnetic healing down. In the eigh- nets to strap to your elbow or knee or teenth and nineteenth centuries, Franz put in your shoe or under your pillow. Mesmer dramatically increased the These static magnetic fields have no popularity of magnetic healing with his demonstrable effect on blood flow or “animal magnetism” theory. Mesmer living tissue, and their fields are so shal- thought that animal magnetism was a low that they barely extend beyond the unique force of nature that flowed like cloth in which they are encased, let a fluid through living things. He also alone to any significant tissue depth. thought he could manipulate it through The scientific evidence for their efficacy a combination of hypnotism and lay- is negative (Pittler et al. 2007). Even ing-on of hands. After a high-profile more absurd are magnetic bracelets that debunking by a commission led by are supposed to have a remote healing Benjamin Frank lin, however, Mesmer’s effect on the body. Their plausibility fame faded, and he died poor and for- plummets even further. gotten. But his legacy survived—mag- It is eternally frustrating that scien- netic healing remains very popular to tific evidence and academic acceptance this day. of medical claims seem to have no Today the relationship among mag- bearing on the marketing and popular nets, popular health claims, and the appeal of those claims. This disconnect medical/scientific community remains appears to be especially true of claims the same. The public is fascinated by for magnetic devices and treatments— and it has survived for centuries. n the notion of healing with electricity, electromagnetic fields, and magnetic References energy. The fact that many medical in- Keithley, Joseph F. 1999. Measurements from terventions are legitimately based upon the beginning through the Middle Ages. In electromagnetism increases this inter- The Story of Electrical and Magnetic Measure- ments: From 500 B.C. to the 1940s. New York: est. People understand that we use IEEE Press. Available online at http://media. magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to wiley.com/product_data/excerpt/30/0780311 peer into the body. Recent studies in- 9/0780311930-2.pdf. Lipton, Richard B., and Starr H. Pearlman. dicate the potential for transcranial 2010. Transcranial magnetic simulation in magnetic stimulation as an effective the treatment of migraine. Neurotherapeutics treatment for migraines (Lipton and 7(2) (April): 204–12. Macklis, Roger M. 1993. Magnetic healing, Pearlman 2010). We routinely measure quackery, and the debate about the health ef - electrical (and now even magnetic) fects of electromagnetic fields. Annals of In - ternal Medicine 118(5) (March): 376–83. brain waves to assess brain function. Pittler, Max H., Elizabeth M. Brown, and Electromagnetism is the real energy Edzard Ernst. 2007. Static magnets for re- of life, and therefore it is very plausible ducing pain: Systematic review and meta- analysis of randomized trials. Canadian that all sorts of magnetic and electrical Medical Association Journal 177(7) (Septem - interventions will be useful for diag- ber): 736–42. SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/15/10 9:27 AM Page 28

WHYWWHYHY CONSPIRACYCONSPIRACY THEORIESTHEORIES APPEALAAPPEALPPEAL ANDAND PERSISTPERSIST

Conspiracy theorizing is a rhetorical meme that transforms scientific controversies into human dramas with villains who can be exposed. It uses controversial facts and speculations to undermine scientific evidence.

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Scientific and technological conspir- onspiracy theories are easy to propagate and difficult acies often allege the misuse of science to refute. Having long flourished in politics and reli- by government, the military, or large gion, they have also spread into science and medicine. corporations, and they include bizarre C claims that the military suppressed It is useful to think of conspiracy theorizing as a meme, a technology that could make warships cultural invention that passes from one mind to another invisible, automobile or oil companies and thrives, or declines, through a process analogous to ge- possess hidden technology that can turn water into gasoline, and the mili- netic selection (Dawkins 1976). The conspiracy meme tary is secretly in cahoots with space competes with other rhetorical memes, such as the fair de- aliens. Conspiracy theorists have argued bate meme, the scientific expertise meme, and the resist- that the AIDS virus was deliberately created as part of a plot to kill black or ance to orthodoxy meme. gay people, the 1969 Moon landing was staged in a movie studio, and dentists The central logic of the conspiracy documentary, and we’ve actually left seek to poison Americans by fluoridat- meme is to question, often on speculative them in there so that people [will] dis- ing public water supplies. Other theo- grounds, everything the “establishment” credit us and do the research for them- rists claim that corporate officers and says or does and to demand immediate, selves” (Slensky 2006). public health officials suppress evidence comprehensive, and convincing answers When the conspiracy meme is rein- that preservatives in vaccines cause to all questions. Unconvincing answers forced by a regular diet of “alternative” autism and silicone breast implants are taken as proof of conspiratorial de- videos and one-sided literature, it can cause connective-tissue disease (Specter ception. A good example is the film become a habitual way of thinking. Peo- 2009; Wallace 2009). Loose Change 9/11: An American Coup ple who believe in one conspiracy are Conspiracy theories include claims (Avery 2009), which started out as a more likely to believe in others (Goertzel that a major drug company hid reports short fictional 2005 video about the 1994; Kramer 1998). A young self-de- stating that its leading anti-inflam - World Trade Center attacks that was clared conspiracy theorist challenged me matory drug caused heart attacks and marketed as if it were a truth-seeking to debate one conspiracy theory per strokes (Specter 2009) and that envi- documentary. The 2005 video went viral week with him, including theories about ronmental scientists have conspired to on the Internet and has been viewed by genetically modified (GM) foods, vac- keep refereed journals from publishing over ten million people. Loose Change cine neurotoxins, AIDS, and September papers by researchers skeptical that raises a long series of questions illustrated 11, 2001. He expressed his “true belief ” global warming is a crisis (Hayward by tendentious information, such as the that there is a “kernel of truth” in almost 2009; Revkin 2009). There are many fact that the fires in the World Trade every conspiracy theory and claimed that theories about physicians or drug com- Center were not hot enough to melt once you understand the kernel, all you panies conspiring to suppress non-main- steel. But no one had claimed that the have to do is “connect the dots to make stream medical treatments, vita mins, and steel had melted, only that it had gotten a picture.” health foods. One author alleges that hot enough to weaken and collapse, Conspiracy theorists have connected big business and the medical establish- which it did. The video presents the fact a lot of dots. The ninety-two conspiracy ment conspired to obstruct the search that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service theories described in a recent handbook for a cure for AIDS so that they could (IRS) is keeping certain people’s tax re- (McConnachie and Tudge 2008) range sell their ineffective drugs and treat- turns secret, set to an ominous musical in topic from Tutankhamen and the ments (Nussbaum 1990). background suggestive of evildoing—de- curse of the pharaoh, the Protocols of the Many of these theories are clearly spite the well-known fact that the IRS Elders of Zion, and satanic ritual abuse to absurd, but some are plausible and oth- keeps everyone’s tax returns secret. the alleged scheming of the Council on ers actually contain elements of truth. When an alleged fact is debunked, Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Com - How can we distinguish among the the conspiracy meme often just replaces mission, and the British royal family. amusing eccentrics, the honestly mis- it with another fact. One of the produc- Other theories involve religious cults, guided, the avaricious litigants, and the ers of Loose Change, Korey Rowe, stated, alien abductions, or terrorist plots. Some serious skeptics questioning a prema- “We don’t ever come out and say that are merely amusing, but others have future consensus? With scientific claims, everything we say is 100 percent [cor- eled wars, inquisitions, and genocides in the only definitive answer is to reexam- rect]. We know there are errors in the which millions of people died. ine the original research data and repeat

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the experiments and analysis. But no to public policy is plausible and worth conspiracy as “a secret plan on the part one has the time or the expertise to ex- investigating, despite the small likeli- of a group to influence events in part by amine the original research literature on hood that such a conspiracy would re- covert action.” Conspiracies so defined every topic, let alone repeat the remain undetected for long. certainly do take place, and it may be search. As such, it is important to have that the most successful ones are never some guidelines for deciding which Definition of ‘Conspiracy’ discovered. They include the (failed) theories are plausible enough to merit The conspiracy meme works because conspiracy to assassinate Adolph Hit - serious examination. conspiracies do exist in the real world. ler; the September 11, 2001, terrorist One valuable guideline is to look for Claims of conspiracy cannot be reflex- attacks; and the Watergate conspiracy. cascade logic in conspiracy arguments ively dismissed, but they are difficult to But the term “conspiracy theory” usu- (Susstein and Vermeule 2008). This oc- test because lack of evidence can be in- ally refers to claims that important curs when defenders of a conspiracy the- terpreted as proof of how cleverly the events have been caused by conspiracies ory find it necessary to implicate more conspirators have hidden it. The first step that have heretofore remained undis- and more people whose failure to dis- in testing claims of conspiracy is to es- covered (Coady 2006). The claim that cover or reveal the conspiracy can be ex- tablish precisely what is being claimed. the World Trade Center was bombed plained only by their alleged complicity. There is no single accepted definition of by al-Qaeda would not be a conspiracy Another guideline is to look for exagger- “conspiracy,” and people apply the term theory in this sense, but the claim that ated claims about the power of the con- differently depending on their point of it was bombed by Israeli agents or that spirators, claims that are needed to view. The Oxford English Dictionary de- American authorities knew about it in explain how they were able to intimidate fines a conspiracy quite loosely as “an advance would be. There is no chance so many people and cover their tracks so agreement between two or more per- of getting agreement on an “official” well. The more vast and powerful the al- sons to do something criminal, illegal, definition, but people alleging conspir- leged conspiracy, the less likely that it or reprehensible.” There are legal defi- acy should be challenged to be clear could have remained undiscovered. nitions of criminal conspiracy, but about their meaning. For example, the claim that the whether something is “reprehensible” is The conspiracy meme flourishes best Moon landing in 1969 was a hoax im- in the eye of the be holder. When in politics, religion, and journalism, plies the complicity of thousands of Hillary Clinton pro tested that her hus- where practitioners can succeed by at- American scientists and technicians, as band was the victim of a “vast right- tracting followers from the general pub- well as that of Soviet astronomers and wing conspiracy” and Lyndon Johnson lic. It isn’t essential that practitioners others around the world who tracked accused the media and liberal activists actually believe the theory; they may the event. It is incredibly implausible of a “conspiracy” to oppose his Vietnam just find it plausible and useful to raise that such a conspiracy could have held War policies, these claimants were in- doubts and discredit their competitors. together. On the other hand, the theory tentionally vague as to whether they re - But this strategy should not be enough that a few individuals in Richard Nix - ferred to illegal or merely reprehensible for scientists. Scientific findings are just on’s campaign conspired to break into behavior (Kramer and Gavrieli 2005). that—findings, not speculations about their opponents’ offices in the Water - Any group of people organizing for a undiscovered goings-on. These findings gate building was plausible and proved cause the speaker does not like may be must be replicable by other scientists. worth investigating. Similarly, the the- de nounced as “conspirators.” In their routine work, scientists have ory that a group of climate scientists But the word conspiracy also usually little use for the conspiracy meme be- conspired to suppress research that they implies something that is secret and cause success in scientific careers comes believed to be misleading and harmful hidden. Pigden (2006, 20) defines a from winning grant applications and

It isn’t essential that practitioners actually believe the theory; they may just find it plausible and useful to raise doubts and discredit their competitors.

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publishing significant findings in peer- will testify on their side, implying that ents who believed their children were reviewed journals. Attacking other sci- expertise is for sale to the highest bid- injured by the vaccines, some of whom entists as conspirators would not be der and that opinion is divided on the desperately needed help to care for helpful for most scientists’ careers, how- issue in question. The rewards can be autistic children. ever frustrated they may be with refer- very great if a class-action lawsuit re- The result was a decline in the pro- ees, editors, colleagues, or administrators sults in a settlement against a wealthy portion of parents having their children who turn down their manuscripts or corporation. vaccinated and a subsequent increase in grant proposals or deny them tenured disease, especially in the United King - jobs. But the conspiracy meme may be Vaccine Conspiracies dom. The authorities responded by cit- useful for scientists who are so far out of Conspiracy theories about vaccines ing findings from large epidemiologic the mainstream in their field that they were given a tremendous boost when studies, but much of the press coverage seek to appeal to alternative funding the esteemed medical journal the highlighted anecdotal accounts and sources or publication outlets. The con- Lancet published a study reporting a human-interest stories. Recovery of spiracy meme also occasionally surfaces hypothesized link between the measles- public confidence in vaccination may be when a scientist’s mental health deteri- mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and due more to revelations of conflicts of orates to the point that he or she loses autism (Burgess et al. 2006). The media interest on the part of the physician touch with reality. highlighted the story despite the study’s who published the original article— Trial lawyers, on the other hand, very small sample size and speculative which was eventually withdrawn by the have a great deal of use for the conspir- causal inferences, and the public reac- journal—than to the overwhelming ev- acy meme because they succeed by con- tion was much larger than medical and idence for the lack of a relationship be- vincing juries. It is part of the standard public health authorities anticipated. tween vaccination and autism rates. repertoire of memes they use to dis- Reasons for the public reaction in- Conspiracy theorists typically over- credit evidence offered by “experts” of cluded resentment of pressure on par- look lapses in logic and evidence by all kinds, including scientists. Lawyers ents, distrust of medical authorities, and their supporters, but they are quick to focus on the motivations of the experts, the potentially catastrophic nature of pounce on any flaw on the part of their on who hired them, on what they are possible risk to a vulnerable population. opponents. When a leading Danish being paid for their testimony, and so There was also the potential for large vaccine researcher was accused of steal- on. They also seek out an “expert” who class-action settlements in favor of par- ing funds from his university, the vac-

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Dissenters from mainstream science often invoke the meme that there are two sides to every question and each side is entitled to equal time to present its case.

cine conspiracy theorists pounced. conspiracy and circulated a petition gested that students be taught both evo- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., son of a former among scientists supporting Pusztai’s lution and creationism so that they can U.S. Attorney General, used the occa- rights. Finally, the Lancet published his judge which has the most convincing sion to denounce the “vaccine cover-up” study, which had not yet appeared in a argument. Similarly, holocaust deniers on the influential blog Huffington Post refereed journal. They sent it to six re- demand equal time for their side of the (Kennedy 2010). He explained away viewers, only one of whom opposed argument, and they might travel to the research findings on vaccines and publication. But one of the reviewers Tehran or wherever they can find a re- autism on the grounds that there had who favored publication said he ceptive audience. If these dissenters, or been a change in the Danish law and “deemed the study flawed but favored “revisionists,” succeed in getting an op- the opening of a new autism clinic. He publication to avoid suspicions of a con- portunity to present their case, they will criticized vaccine researchers for receiv- spiracy against Pusztai and to give col- hammer away at any gaps or contradic- ing money from the Centers for Dis- leagues a chance to see the data for tions in the evidence presented by ease Control and Prevention (CDC) themselves” (Enserink 1999). mainstream researchers, using rhetoric for their studies and for “being in ca- By releasing his findings on televi- that questions their opponents’ motiva- hoots with CDC officials intent on sion, Pusztai received extraordinary at - tions while avoiding any hint of weak- fraudulently cherry-picking facts to tention for a study that otherwise might ness or bias in their own case. prove vaccine safety.” But if the CDC never have been accepted by a leading This advocacy meme is widely used had not funded this research, largely in scientific journal. At least, that was the in law courts and political debates, and response to popular concerns, vaccine opinion of the editor of a competing it can work well when the question at opponents would have denounced it for journal who asked “when was the last hand is one of taste or morality. It does- not doing so. time [the Lancet] published a rat study n’t work well for scientists because there that was uninterpretable? This is really are objectively right and wrong answers Genetically Modified Food Conspiracies lowering the bar” (Enserink 1999). Re- to most scientific questions—they can’t Public alarm about GM foods was leasing controversial findings on the In- be resolved by votes of schoolchildren. aroused when a scientist, Árpád Pusz - ternet or through press releases is Schoolchildren in 1945 might have tai, claimed in a television interview that justified as a way of making important agreed with U.S. Admiral William rats had suffered intestinal damage due discoveries available quickly, but it also Leahy’s famous statement that “the to eating GM potatoes (“Genet ically serves to circumvent the normal scien- [atomic] bomb will never go off, and I modified” 2010; Enserink 1999). The tific review process. Some times these speak as an expert on explosives.” But finding was clearly preliminary; there “findings,” such as the claim that the de- once the bomb went off, there were no were only six rats in each of two groups, cline in crime in the United States in the longer two sides to the question. and one group was fed GM potatoes for 1990s was due to the legalization of only ten days. The re ported effects on abortion in the 1970s, become part of The Scientific Expertise Meme the rats were minor, but the study re- the conventional wisdom before other In deciding to pursue the atomic bomb ceived tremendous publicity because scientists have a chance to debunk them project, President Harry Truman relied it fed into fears that had long been culti- (Zimring 2006). on another meme that is very powerful vated by environmentalist and anti- in western societies, that of reliance on capitalist social movements. As the The Fair Debate Meme scientific expertise. Decision makers con tro versy progressed, questions were Dissenters from mainstream science and the general public are most likely raised about the integrity of the study, often invoke the meme that there are to be persuaded by this meme when leading Pusztai to leave his research in- two sides to every question and each scientists are in agreement and when stitute. But anti-GM activists de- side is entitled to equal time to present their advice and policy prescriptions nounced criticisms of the research as a its case. George W. Bush famously sug- have a good track record. There is an

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inherent tension between the policy hunger would result. In some cases they nique. Questions left unanswered for makers’ desire for consensus and the defended their predictions with elabo- more than about ten minutes he takes as scientists’ need to remain open to alter- rate statistical models, despite the fact further proof that HIV is not the cause native theories and evidence. Scientists that these models had no demonstrated of AIDS. Evidence that contradicts his who wish to influence policy may be track record for predicting trends in alternative drug hypothesis on the other tempted to claim a scientific consensus poverty (Goertzel 1998). President hand is brushed aside.” Maddox argued when the facts do not yet warrant one. Clinton deferred to politicians and con- that Duesberg was not asking legitimate We social scientists have forfeited servative activists who predicted that scientific questions but rather making much of our potential influence be cause poverty and dependency would decline demands and implying, “Unless you can we are too often perceived as advocates as, in fact, they did. answer this, and right now, your belief for a cause rather than as objective re- that HIV causes AIDS is wrong” (Mad- searchers. Our ability to predict policy Memes Collide: HIV/AIDS Deniers dox 1993). outcomes is very limited, yet we some- The conflict between the fair debate Maddox observed that “Duesberg times fall into the trap of claiming to meme and the scientific expertise meme will not be alone in protesting that this know more than we do. Econometri - was pronounced in the dispute between is merely a recipe for suppressing chal- cians have been publishing conflicting the late Nature editor John Maddox and lenges to received wisdom. So it can be. analyses of the relationship between biologist Peter Duesberg, who opposes But Nature will not so use it. Instead, capital punishment and homicide rates the theory that HIV causes AIDS. Re- what Duesberg continues to say about for decades without making any real lying on the norms of fairness in debate, the causation of AIDS will be reported progress, yet they continue to use their Duesberg (1995) sought the right to in the general interest. When he offers a findings to advocate for or against cap- reply to scientific papers that defend text for publication that can be authen- ital punishment (Goertzel and Goertzel mainstream views about the HIV-AIDS ticated, it will if possible be published.” 2008). When President Bill Clinton connection. At a certain point in the de- As an editor of a scientific journal, Mad- proposed welfare reform in the United bate, Maddox refused to continue to give dox was justified in saying that he would States, social scientists specializing in Duesberg “the right of reply,” arguing publish papers that offered new findings, the topic almost universally predicted that Duesberg had “forfeited the right to not ones that just picked at unanswered that a disastrous increase in poverty and expect answers by his rhetorical tech- questions in other people’s work. But

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Being a dissenter from orthodoxy isn’t so difficult; the hard part is actually having a better theory than the conventional one.

Maddox was realistic in realizing that his ment, associated with Karl Popper, that damental contributions to chemistry. refusal to publish additional comments science progresses through falsification Pauling did not claim that he was the by Duesberg would be portrayed as cen- of hypotheses. Maddox says, “True, victim of a conspiracy; he saw himself sorship by believers in the AIDS con- good theories (pace Popper) are falsifi- as challenging the herd mentality of spiracy theory. able theories, and a single falsification science. But his scientific prestige lent will bring a good theory crashing credibility to those who sought to dis- The Resistance to Orthodoxy Meme down.” But he goes on in the next sen- credit scientific medicine as a conspir- Duesberg and other dissenters also rely tence to implicitly rely on a different acy of doctors and drug companies on another well-established rhetorical philosophy of science, often associated (Goertzel and Goertzel 1995). Scien - meme, that of the courageous independ- with the work of Imre Lakatos, which tific expertise is usually quite special- ent scientist resisting orthodoxy. This is that science normally progresses by ized, and scientists who advocate for meme is frequently introduced with the correcting and adding to ongoing re- political causes only tangentially re lated example of Galileo’s defense of the he- search programs, not by abandoning to their area of specialization have no liocentric model of the solar system them every time a hypothesis fails. special claim on the truth. against the orthodoxy of the Catholic Maddox says, “Unanswered questions Conspiracy theorists often seem to be- Church. And there are other cases of are not falsifications; rather, they should lieve that they can prove a scientific theory dissenting scientists who have later been be the stimulants of further research.” wrong by finding even a minor flaw or gap proven right. Thomas Gold (1989) re - Scientists do change their ideas in in the evidence for it. Then they claim ports confronting the “herd mentality” response to new evidence, perhaps conspiracy when scientists endeavor to fix of science when advancing his theories more often than people in most walks the flaw or fill the gap. If the scientists per- on the mechanisms of the inner ear and of life. Linus Pauling abandoned his sist in their work, on the assumption that the nature of pulsars as rotating neutron triple-helix model of DNA as soon as a solution will be found, they are again stars, both of which later came to be ac- he saw the evidence for the double- charged with conspiracy. In fact, the occa- cepted. This “herd mentality” is not the helix model. But he never abandoned product of a deliberate conspiracy, al- his advocacy of vitamin C as a treat- sions when an entire scientific theory is though it may be perceived as one. It is ment for the common cold and cancer, overthrown by a negative finding are few a collective behavior phenomenon: a be- no matter how many studies failed to and far between. This is especially true in lief is reinforced and becomes part of the show a significant difference between fields depending on statistical modeling of conventional wisdom because it is re- experimental and control groups. Paul- complex phenomena for which there are peated so often. This is why those who ing found flaws in each study’s research often multiple models that are roughly offer differing views are important. design and insisted that the results equally good (or bad), and the choice of a Being a dissenter from orthodoxy isn’t so would be different if only the study data set and decisions about data-set difficult; the hard part is actually having were done differently. He never did any filtering are often critical. The more im- a better theory than the conventional empirical research on vitamin C him- portant test of a research program is one. Dissenting theories should be pub- self, research that would have risked whether progress is being made over a pe- lished if they are backed by plausible ev- failing to confirm his hypotheses. He riod of time and whether better progress idence, but this does not mean giving instead limited himself to debunking could be made with an alternative ap- critics “equal time” to dissent from every published scientific studies. Unfortu- proach. Progress can be measured by the finding by a mainstream scientist. nately, Pauling is probably better accumulation of a solid, verifiable body of In his response to Duesberg, Mad - known by the general public for this knowledge with a very high probability of dox refers to the philosophical argu- work than for his undisputed and fun- being correct (Franklin 2009).

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Climate Change Conspiracy scientists felt attacked and apparently consensus on the issue of global warming The conspiracy meme has been espe- began to think of themselves more as itself. One of the responsible critics, for cially prominent in the debate about activists under siege than as neutral sci- example, frankly states that “climate global warming. When the Inter govern - entists. In 2009, computer hackers re- change is a genuine phenomenon, and mental Panel on Climate Change pub- leased private e-mails apparently there is a nontrivial risk of major conse- lished its report in 1996, an eminent showing that some climate scientists quences in the future” (Hayward 2009). retired physicist, Frederick Seitz (1996), had pressured editors not to publish pa- But there is no consensus on how high accused it of a “major deception on pers by skeptics and that the climate the risk is, how quickly it is likely to ma- global warming” on the op-ed pages of scientists had looked for ways to pres- terialize, or the costs and benefits of the Wall Street Journal. Seitz did not offer ent their data to reinforce their advo- strategies needed to counter it. a scientific argument that the report’s cacy views (Revkin 2009; Hay ward The less responsible critics simply conclusions were wrong. Instead, he at- 2009; Broder 2010). dismiss the issue as a hoax and focus tacked the committee’s procedure in ed- Climate science is heavily dependent exclusively on the peccadilloes of the iting its document, accusing the editors on complex statistical models based on other side. The climate scientists gave of violating their own rules by rewording limited data, so it is not surprising that the conspiracy theorists an opening by and rearranging parts of the text to ob- models based on different assumptions letting their advocacy color their sci- scure the views of skeptical scientists. give differing results (Schmidt and ence, which compromised the legiti- This seemingly obscure point about the Amman 2005). In presenting their data, macy of their enterprise and, ironically, editing of a UN technical document some scientists were too quick to weakened the political movement itself. proved remarkably effective in providing smooth trends into a “hockey stick” This is especially unfortunate because a rallying point for opponents of the re- model that fit with their advocacy con- the underlying science is fundamentally port’s conclusions. cerns. Several different groups of well- correct. A careful review of the incident qualified specialists have now been over (Lahsen 1999) concluded that the edi- the data carefully, and the result is a less Conspiracy Consequences tors did not violate any of their own linear “hockey stick,” with a rise in tem- Faced with assaults on their professional rules and that the editorial changes perature during a medieval warm pe- credibility, scientists may be tempted to were reasonable. Editors, after all, do riod and a drop during a little ice age. retreat from the world of public policy. edit texts, all the more so when the texts But the sharp increase in warming in But allowing the conspiracy theorists to are written by a committee. The skep- the twentieth century, which is the dominate the public debate can have tical arguments were not deleted from main point of the analysis, is still there tragic consequences. Fear of science and the report, but they were repositioned (“Hockey stick controversy” 2010; belief in conspiracies has led British and rephrased, perhaps giving them less Brumfiel 2006). parents to expose their children to life- emphasis than Seitz thought they de- This is not the place to review the threatening diseases, the South African served. But the conspiracy meme was substance of the issue, which has already health department to reject retroviral successful in shifting much of the pub- been debated extensively in this journal. treatment for AIDS, and the Zambian lic debate from the substance of the An encouraging thing, however, is that government to refuse GM food from issue to criticism of personalities, pro- despite the bitterness is the debate about the United States in the midst of a cedures, and motivations. The climate scientists’ behavior, there is considerable famine. Fear of science is not new. Ben-

Fear of science is not new. Benjamin Franklin was afraid to vaccinate his family against smallpox and regretted it deeply when a son died of the disease in 1736. Parents are making the same mistake today.

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jamin Franklin was afraid to vaccinate term for Hampden. Hampden and his make the review process more transpar- his family against smallpox and regret- followers were never convinced the ent may help, including making review- ted it deeply when a son died of the dis- Earth is not flat, and belief in the “round ers’ comments and the original data sets ease in 1736. Parents are making the Earth conspiracy” apparently persists to available on the Internet. same mistake today. this day (Garwood 2008; O’Neill 2008). The credibility of peer review has Advocacy groups sometimes find it Scientists will never reach a consen- been undermined in the recent dispute easier to arouse fears of science than to sus with Flat Earthers or with those over global warming because the review- advocate for other goals that may actu- who believe the Earth was created in ers are drawn from a fairly small pool of ally be more fundamental to their con- 4004 BCE. Nor do they need to. The specialists who are known to have a pol- cerns. The movement against GM best that science can provide is a clearly icy agenda. The appointment of panels foodstuffs in Europe was mobilized specified degree of consensus among of distinguished scientists to review the largely by anti-capitalist, anti-corporate, scientists who base their conclusions on body of research in the field is an excel- and anti-American activists who found empirical data. Efforts to reach consen- lent step to rebuilding credibility (Broder it more effective than attacking corpo- sus on important questions have been 2010). The review panels must have full rate capitalism directly (Purdue 2000; discouraged due to the influence of access to all the data sets, as well as the Schurman 2004). These ideologies have philosophers of science who emphasize time and expertise to conduct their own much less support in North America, conflicting research programs, para- analyses if necessary—which cannot and efforts to organize against GM digm shifts, and scientific revolutions normally be expected of volunteer re- food here were much weaker. North (Franklin 2009; Stove 1982). Although viewers for a journal. It is important that Americans have suffered no significant these events do occur in the history of these reviewers give qualified specialists ill effects from the integration of these science, they are exceptional. Most sci- an opportunity to present alternative foods into their diet, a fact that Green- ences, most of the time, progress with views, as long as these views are based on peace and other advocacy groups stu- an orderly, gradual accumulation of scientific analysis of appropriate data and diously ignore. One suspects that if GM knowledge that is recognized and ac- not just polemical criticism. No matter seeds had been invented by a socialist cepted by specialists in the field. Oppo- how well they do their work, however, government, these advocacy groups sition rooted in religious or ideological these panels are likely to be attacked by would have heralded them as a great concerns is acceptable as part of the conspiracy theorists. victory in the war against hunger. democratic political process, but it need If the blue-ribbon scientific commis- Public policy requires reaching con- not prevent scientists from reaching a sions confirm the original research find- sensus to make decisions, even though consensus when one is justified. ings, perhaps with only modest caveats, some uncertainty usually remains. If sci- many people will be convinced. But in- entists cannot do this, surely it is too Peer Review dividuals with strong feelings about the much to expect politicians or journalists The peer review process in scientific issue may resort to cascade logic, sus- to do it. Efforts to define a consensus journals plays a central role in determin- pecting that the review panel is also part are vulnerable to attacks by conspiracy ing which research findings deserve to be of the conspiracy. Cascade logic can eas- theorists who portray a consensus as a incorporated in the scientific consensus ily develop into a generalized distrust of mechanism for suppressing dissent and on an issue. As such, this process is a tar- anything that comes from a mainstream debate. But there will always be dis- get for conspiracy theorists. Peer review- or elite source. In the past, social psy- senters, and at a certain point arguing ers are usually anonymous, which chological studies found that this kind with them becomes unproductive. In suggests they may have something to of generalized belief in conspiracies was 1870, Alfred Russell Wallace allowed hide. Although authors’ names are usu- most common among people who were himself to be drawn into an extended ally removed from studies to be reviewed, discontented with the established insti- conflict with Flat Earth theorist John reviewers are specialists in the same field tutions and elite groups in their society, Hampden, editor of the Truth-Seeker’s and can often guess who the authors are. believed that conditions were worsening Oracle and Scriptural Science Review. Reviewers are not in a good position to for people like themselves, and believed Their dispute over whether the Earth is detect actual fraud; they can’t redo the ex- that authorities did not care about them round involved measuring the curvature periments or the data analysis. And they (Goertzel 1994; Kramer 1998). of the water on the Old Bedford Canal may reject papers that go against the The conspiracy meme can convert in England. There was a public wager, conventional wisdom or political consen- a dry scientific issue into a human which Wallace won, followed by a law- sus in their field (Franklin 2009, 205–11). drama in which malefactors can be ex- suit when Hampden refused to pay, a No adequate alternative to peer review posed and denounced. Scientists are not threat against Wallace’s life, and a prison has been proposed, but initiatives to trained in dealing with this kind of de-

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bate, and there is no reason to expect Enserink, Martin. 1999. The Lancet scolded over Maddox, John. 1993. Has Duesberg a right of reply? them to be especially good at it. If they Pusztai paper. Science 286 (October 22): 656. Nature 363: 109. Available online at www.virus- Franklin, James. 2009. What Science Knows and myth.com/aids/hiv/jmrightreply.htm. also have strong feelings about the is- How it Knows It. New York: Encounter. McConnachie, James, and Robin Tudge. 2008. The sues, they may fall into the conspiracy Garwood, Christine. 2008. Flat Earth: History of Rough Guide to Conspiracy Theories. London: meme themselves. But when scientists an Infamous Idea. New York: Thomas Dunne. Penguin. “Genetically modified food conspiracies.” Wiki - Nussbaum, Bruce. 1990. Good Intentions: How Big succumb to the temptation to “fight fire pedia. Accessed March 15, 2010. Avail able Business and the Medical Establishment are Cor- with fire,” they risk losing their credi- online at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gen rupting the Fight Against AIDS. New York: At- bility as experts. It may be tempting to etically_modified_food_controversies#cite_ lantic Monthly Press. note-Enserink1999B-64. O’Neill, Brendan. 2008. Do they really think the exaggerate findings in mass media out- Goertzel, Ted. 1994. Belief in conspiracy theories. Earth is flat? BBC News Magazine (August 4). lets by using graphics that highlight the Political Psychology 15: 731–42. Available on- Available online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7540427.stm. most extreme possibilities. This may be line at http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/ conspire.doc. Pigden, Charles. 2006. Popper revisited, or what is effective in the short run, but the public ———. 1998. Why welfare research fails. Available wrong with conspiracy theories? In Con spiracy feels deceived when today’s newest online at http://crab.rutgers.edu/%7Egoertzel/ Theories: The Philosophical Debate, edited by fail2.html. David Coady. Hampshire, UK: Ashgate. scare is refuted by tomorrow’s press re- Goertzel, Ted, and Benjamin Goertzel. 1995. Purdue, Derrick. 2000. Anti-GenetiX: The Emergence lease; their belief in science is dimin- Linus Pauling: A Life in Science and Medicine. of the Anti-GM Movement. Surrey, UK: Ashgate. ished. In today’s political climate, New York: Basic Books. Revkin, Andrew. 2009. Hacked e-mail data prompts ———. 2008. Capital punishment and homicide calls for changes in climate research. New York scientists need to be careful about re- rates: Sociological realities and econometric Times (November 27). leasing their findings on controversial distortions. Critical Sociology 34(2): 239–54. Schmidt, Gavin, and Caspar Amman. 2005. Dum- issues; they must make sure the find- Gold, Thomas. 1989. The inertia of scientific mies guide to the latest “hockey stick” contro- thought. Speculations in Science and Technology versy. Available online at www.real ings have been thoroughly reviewed 12(4): 245–53. Available online at www.sup- climate.org/index.php/archives/2005/02/ and that the data sets are available for pressedscience.net/inertiaofscientificthought. dummies-guide-to-the-latest-hockey-stick- others to analyze. html. controversy. Schurman, Rachel. 2004. Fighting “Franken foods”: Political decisions will inevitably re- Hayward, Steven. 2009. Scientists behaving badly. The Weekly Standard 15(13) (December 14). Industry opportunity structures and the efficacy flect economic interests and emotional Available online at www.weeklystandard. of the anti-biotech movement in western Eu- com/Content/Public/Art cles/000/000/017 rope. Social Problems 51(2): 243–68. concerns that conflict with what scien- Seitz, Frederick. 1996. Major deception on global tists believe is best. But scientists can be /300ubchn.asp. “Hockey stick controversy.” Wikipedia. Accessed warming. Wall Street Journal (June 12). Available more effective if they avoid using the February 27, 2010. Available online at http:// online at www.sepp.org/Archive/contro conspiracy meme and other rhetorical en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_ v/ipcccont/Item05.htm. controversy. Slensky, Michael. 2006. The loose cannon of 9/11. devices and instead clearly separate Kaufman, Leslie. 2010. Darwin foes add warming AlterNet.org (August 21). Available online at their scientific work from their political to targets. New York Times (March 3). Avail- www.alternet.org/story/40476. advocacy as citizens. n able online at www.nytimes.com/2010/ Specter, Michael. 2009. Denialism: How Irrational 03/04/science/earth/04climate.html?ref= Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives. New York: References science. Keeley, Brian. 2006. Nobody expects the Spanish Penguin. Avery, Dylan. 2009. Loose Change 9/11: An Amer - inquisition! More thoughts on conspiracy the- Stove, David. 1982. Popper and After: Four Modern Irrationalists. Oxford: Oxford Uni versity Press. ican Coup. Distributed by Microcinema Inter - ory. In Conspiracy Theories: The Philo sophical De- Susstein, Carl, and Adrian Vermeule. 2008. Con- national. Released September 22. bate, edited by David Coady. Hampshire, UK: spiracy theories. Available online at http:// Broder, John. 2010. Scientists taking steps to de- Ashgate. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id= fend work on climate. New York Times Kennedy, Robert F. 2010. Central figure in CDC 1084585. (March 2). Available online at www.ny vaccine cover-up absconds with $2m. Huf - Wallace, Amy. 2009. An epidemic of fear. Wired times.com/2010/03/03/science/earth/03 fington Post (March 11). Available online at 17(10): 128–36. climate.html?hp. www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy- Zimring, Franklin. 2006. The Great American Brumfiel, Geoff. 2006. Academy affirms hockey- jr/central-figure-in-cdc-vac_b_494303.html. Crime Decline. New York: Oxford University stick graph. Nature 441(7097) (June): 1032–33. Kramer, Roderick. 1998. Paranoid cognition in so- Press. Burgess, David, Margaret Burgess, and Julie cial systems. Personality and Social Psy chology Re- Leasak. 2006. The MMR vaccination and view 2(4): 251–75. autism controversy in United Kingdom Kramer, Roderick, and Dana Gavrieli. 2005. The Ted Goertzel is professor 1998–2005: Inevitable community outrage or perception of conspiracy: Leader paranoia as of sociology at Rutgers a failure of risk communication? Vaccine adaptive cognition. In The Psychology of Leader - University in Camden, 24(18): 3921–28. ship, edited by D. Messick and R. Kramer, Coady, David. 2006. Conspiracy theories and of- 251–61. Mahway, NJ: Lawrence Erl baum As- New Jersey. He is the ficial stories. In Conspiracy Theories: The Philo- sociates. author of Turncoats and sophical Debate, edited by David Coady. Lahsen, Myanna. 1999. The detection and attribu- True Believers: The Dy- Hampshire, UK: Ashgate. tion of conspiracies: The controversy over namics of Political Belief and Disillusion- Dawkins, Richard. 1976. The Selfish Gene. Ox- Chapter 8. In Paranoias within Reason: A Case - ford: Oxford University Press. book on Conspiracy as Explanation, edited by G. ment, Linus Pauling: A Life in Science Duesberg, Peter. 1995. Infectious AIDS: Have We Marcus. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, and Medicine, and other works listed at Been Misled? Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic. 111–36. http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/.

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The Aura A Brief Review

Empirical studies show no evidence for the existence of an aura around humans that supposedly only psychics can see. Why, then, does belief in auras persist?

BRIDGETTE M. PEREZ and TERENCE HINES

“I used equipment he invented as well as adaptations made of Dr. Walter J. Kilner’s screens for some years before I discovered that my eyes could see auras without visual aids.” —J.C. Pierrakos (2005)

ne might feel compelled to reread the above quote because, after all, there is presently no objective evi- Odence for the existence of auras. The word aura itself comes from a Greek word meaning breeze. The aura is claimed to be a glowing field surrounding a human being that is undetectable, except by gifted psychics. By interpret- ing the aura of an individual, one is said to be able to deduce personality, health, and present emotions (Randi 1995). Believers in the aura describe it as a “vital force [that] spills beyond the perimeters of the skin into the atmosphere to create an energy field, or aura, which provides a

great deal of information about the na- Empirical Studies of Auras ture and functioning of human beings” An obvious method for testing the ex- (Pierrakos 2005, 18). Many methods istence of auras is to test psychics who have been used to test whether the aura claim to be able to detect them. In one exists. One method has been to test such experiment, a windowless televi- gifted individuals who claim to see sion studio with a barrier in the center auras. Attempts have also been made to and entrances at each end was used look for auras with the aid of various (Loftin 1990). A psychic and an exper- instruments and apparatus. The great imenter stood on one side of the barrier while one or two subjects entered the majority of these tests, which we review studio on the other side. The psychic here, have shown limited or no evi- had less than three minutes to discern dence for the reality of auras. In spite of how many auras she detected. Two the lack of empirical evidence, propo- white-noise generators were used to nents continue to advocate their exis- cover any subtle sound cues, such as the tence. In the second part of this article sound of breathing, that might give we will discuss several explanations for away how many subjects were present in proponents’ continued belief in spite of the room. Not surprisingly, the psychic the lack of evidence. did not score above chance.

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Another experiment had a more ele- Existing instruments have also been discharge—resulting from variance in gant methodology (Gissurarsson and used to attempt to quantitatively measure pressure, humidity, grounding, and con- Gunnarsson 1997). It took place in a the radiation that an aura supposedly ductivity surrounding the leaf—persisted room that contained four screens made emits. A photomultiplier tube, a highly temporarily after the torn part was re- from unpainted fiberboards, which were sensitive device, has been used to try to moved and was responsible for the Kir- placed in a row on one wall of the room. detect this radiation (Dobrin et al. 1977). lian image of a complete leaf (Pehek et al. In this experiment, unlike in the one The photomultiplier responds to small 1976). previously described, a control group was quantities of light by producing measur- used. Ten aura seers and nine non-seers able amounts of electric charge. The Continued Belief in Auras (the control group) were selected to par- amount of charge produced is propor- Seeing auras is actually one of the less ticipate in the experiment. All of the par- tional to the amount of light detected by common psychic experiences. Zin - ticipants had to guess behind which one the tube. This tube responds to light in grone, Alvarado, and Agee concluded, of the four screens the experimenter was the visible and ultraviolet range but not based on a review of studies of the gen- hidden. This task was based on the as- in the infrared range, which rules out eral population, that the “prevalence [of sumption that the aura radiates a few heat effects. This experiment demon- seeing auras] ranged from 0% to 6%” inches from the body and should have strated that humans do reflect energy in (2009, 161). been visible above the screen. Blinds covered the large windows on the wall behind the screens, and the whole The aura imagery model suggests wall was covered with brown paper. Sug gestive shadows were eliminated that individuals who claim to see through the use of Luxo lamps positioned across from the screens. A total of auras might actually be perceiving thirty-six sessions consisting of 1,449 trials was run. The results were non-signif- a person through their senses while icant for both groups, although “the control group did slightly better than the their mind and memory reinterpret experimental group” (Gissurarsson and Gunnarsson 1997, 41). this information as the experience Attempts have been made to measure the aura objectively and experimen- of luminous beings. tally. Various instruments have been used or even invented for the purpose of observing the aura. In the early the visible and ultraviolet spectrum, but One explanation for the persistence of 1900s, W.J. Kilner thought that the this is not surprising. If the human body belief in auras, given that there is essen- aura could be made visible through the did not reflect energy in the visible range, tially no objective evidence for their re- use of dicyanin screens containing a it would be invisible. ality, could be rare cases of synesthesia. coal-tar dye. The dye appeared to alter Kirlian photography has also been Synesthesia is a nonpathological neuro- the sensitivity of the eye by “making the used in the attempted examination of logical condition in which sensory expe- observer temporarily short-sighted and auras. A Kirlian photographic image of riences that are usually separate are therefore more readily able to perceive an object is obtained when a large electric experienced together. The most common radiation in the ultra-violet band” (Kil- potential is applied between the object type is color–number/letter synesthesia, ner 1965, viii). Kilner studied the and a dielectrically isolated electrode in which the synesthete perceives num- human aura for diagnostic purposes (Pehek et al. 1976). A famous instance in bers and letters in color (Spector and and made an explicit disclaimer of any which Kirlian photography seemed to Maurer 2009). In a rarer type, colors are clairvoyant or occult preoccupation. prove the reality of the aura happened associated with faces. Ward (2004) re- Ironically, the spiritualist movement when a section of a plant leaf was pho- ported a case study of G.W., a synesthete quickly endorsed Kilner’s findings as tographed and then torn away. The leaf who experienced a color for names of proof of existence of the aura. Shortly was then rephotographed, which resulted people whom she knew personally. She thereafter, aura spectacles and aura gog- in a faint image of the torn-out section re ported that she perceived colors occu- gles were invented, based on the idea of still appearing in the second photo pying her whole field of vision when her the dicyanin screens (Gissurars son and (Randi 1995). The luminous low-current synesthesia was elicited by words. G.W. Gunnarsson 1997). gaseous discharge, known as a corona distinctly visually perceived the names

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and faces of people she knew with col- energy that somehow is visible to only References ored halos or “auras” projected around some individuals. This seems highly un- Alvarado, C.S. 1987. Observations of luminous the person or name. “G.W. does not be- likely. The suggests phenomena around the human body: A re- aura imagery model view. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research lieve that she has mystical powers and that individuals who claim to see auras 54: 38–60. has no interest in the occult. However, might actually be perceiving a person Alvarado, C.S., and N.L. Zingrone. 1994. Indi- vidual differences in aura vision: Relationship it is not hard to imagine how, in a dif- through their senses while their mind to visual imagery and imaginative-fantasy ex- ferent age, such an interpretation could and memory reinterpret this information periences. European Journal of Parapsychology arise” (Ward 2004, 770). There are other as the experience of luminous beings. 10: 1–30. Dobrin, R., C. Kirsch, S. Kirsch, et al. 1977. Ex- case studies in which synesthetes report Psychological factors positively re - perimental measurements of the human en- projecting colors onto people (Riggs lated to claims of psychic experiences ergy field. Psycho energetic Systems 2: 213–16. and Karwoski 1934; Collin 1929; Cy- might also contribute to the belief in the Gissurarsson, L., and A. Gunnarsson. 1997. An experiment with the alleged human aura. towic 1989; Weiss et al. 2001; Ra- phenomenon of the aura (Zin grone et al. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Re- machandran and Hubbard 2001 as cited 2009). One study (Alvarado and Zin- search 91: 33–49. in Ward 2004). It is especially interest- grone 1994) reported that aura vision Kilner, W. J. 1965. The Human Aura. New Hyde Park, NY: University Books. ing that in two separate samples, Zin- was related to higher levels of reports of Loftin, R.W. 1990. Auras: Searching for the light. grone, Alvarado, and Agee (2009) found vividness of visual imagery and of imag- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 14(4): 403–9. that individuals who reported seeing inative-fantasy experiences. In another Pehek, J.O., H.J. Kyler, and D.L. Faust. 1976. Image modulation in corona discharge pho- auras were significantly more likely to study, a positive relationship between tography. Science 194: 236–70. report synesthetic events. auras and the claims of other psychic ex- Pierrakos, J.C. 2005. Core Energetics: Developing the Capacity to Love and Heal. Mendocino, There are other explanations why periences was found (Zin grone et al. CA: Core Evolution Publishing. belief in the existence of auras might 2009). Seeing auras has been associated Randi, J. 1995. An Encyclopedia of Claims, Frauds, persist. Perceptual distortions, illusions, more with aspects of absorption and less and Hoaxes of the Occult and Supernatural. New York: St. Martin’s Press. and hallucinations might promote belief with aspects of dissociative processes. Raz, A. 2007. Suggestibility and hypnotizability: in auras. Physiological processes, such as Absorption was described as “a predispo- Mind the gap. American Journal of Clinical rare cases of human luminescence sition towards the processing of unusual Hypnosis 49: 205–10. Raz, A., T. Hines, J. Fossella, et al. 2008. Paranor- caused by bacterial infections, might perceptual input or of imagery” (Zin - mal experience and the COMT dopaminer- also be responsible for some re ports of grone et al. 2009, 163). These authors gic gene: A preliminary attempt to associate auras (Alvarado 1987). Psycho logical also found that people reporting seeing phenotype with genotype using an underlying brain theory. Cortex 44: 1336–41. factors, including absorption, fantasy auras were also more likely to report pre- Sacks, O.W. 1985. Migraine: Understanding a proneness, vividness of visual imagery, cognitive dreams, lucid and more vivid Common Disorder. Berkeley: University of and after-images, might also be respon- dreams, and out-of-body experiences. California Press. Spector, F., and D. Maurer. 2009. Synesthesia: A sible for the phenomena of the aura. Psychological factors, such as fantasy new approach to understanding the develop- Gissurarsson and Gunnars son (1997) proneness, suggestibility, and the like, are ment of perception. Developmental Psychology discuss four classes, or models, of possi- related to levels of dopamine activity in 45: 175–89. Ward, J. 2004. Emotionally mediated synaesthe- ble explanations: scientific, clinical, psy- the brain (see Raz et al. 2008 for a brief sia. Cognitive Neuropsychology 21: 761–72. chical, and aura imagery. In the scientific review). Catechol-O-methyltransferase Zingrone, N.L., C.S. Alvarado, and N. Agee. 2009. Psychological correlates of aura vision: model, for example, an individual might (COMT) is an enzyme that breaks Psychic experiences, dissociation, absorption, experience visions of a series of colored down dopamine in the brain. It has been and synaesthesia-like experiences. Australian halos surrounding another person’s found that which allele of the COMT Journal of Clinical and Experimental Hyp nosis 37: 131–68 head. This phenomenon is known as gene an individual has is related to the “the glory” and usually occurs outdoors degree of his or her suggestibility and under certain meteorological conditions hypnotizability (Raz 2007). Thus, when a shadow is projected on a cloud propensity to see auras may have, at least of uniform water droplets. In the clinical in part, both a neurochemical and a ge- Bridgette M. Perez and Terence Hines are in the model, seeing an aura might be related netic basis. Psychology Department to epilepsy. Although epileptic auras are In summary, although there is ample at Pace University in Pleas- usually olfactory or emotional, visual evidence that human beings are sur- antville, New York. Hines auras also have been reported. Migraine rounded by thermal, electromagnetic, is a Committee for Skeptical head aches commonly result in visual and electrostatic fields (Presman 1970 as Inquiry scientific consultant phenomena that could easily be inter- cited in Dobrin et al. 1977), there is a lack and author of Pseudoscience preted as auras (Sacks 1985). Eye disor- of evidence for the existence of the aura and the Paranormal (Prom - ders might also account for aura-like that psychics claim to see. Continued etheus Books 2003). Email: experiences. According to the psychical belief in the reality of auras can be attrib- [email protected]. model, auras might be attributed to un- uted to several psychological, neuro - known electromagnetic field radiation logical, and optical effects. n

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Defending Isagenix A Case Study in Flawed Thinking

Do those who comment on blogs even read the articles they are responding to? Here is a case study in emotional thinking, ad hominem arguments, logical fallacies, irrationality, and misinformation.

HARRIET HALL

he Internet is a wonderful medium for communicat- To illustrate, let’s look at some responses to a piece I wrote about a ing ideas and information in a rapid, interactive way. weight-loss product called Isagenix, TMany online articles are followed by a section for which is sold through a multilevel mar- comments. Like so many things in this imperfect world, keting (MLM) scheme. To quote its website verbatim, “The Isagenix cleanse comments are a mixed blessing. They can enhance the ar- is unique because it not only removes ticle by correcting errors, adding further information, or impurities at the cellular level, it builds contributing useful thoughts to a productive discussion. the body up with incredible nutrition. Besides detoxing the body, Isagenix But all too often the comments section consists of emo- teaches people a wonderful lesson that tional outbursts, unwarranted personal attacks on the au- they don’t need to eat as much as they thor, logical fallacies, and misinformation. It provides are accustom [sic] to and eating healthy choices are really important and also a irrational and ignorant people with a soapbox from which lot of the food we are eating is nutri- to promote prejudices and false information. tionally bankrupt.”

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I didn’t set out to write this article. health is not a matter of choosing be- Isagenix and it seems to be slowly It started when I received an e-mail tween open-heart surgery and diet sup- killing them: they have de creased en- inquiry about Isagenix. I posted my plements. No one commented on that. ergy, declining health, mood swings, answer on a discussion list, and it was Instead of rational responses, we got: and poorer control of diabetes. picked up and published at http://health fraudoz.blogspot.com/2006/11/critique- Testimonials Rebuttals to Negative Testimonials of-isagenix.html. Sandy Szwarc, author The greatest number of comments were Supposedly the people Isagenix hasn’t of a blog titled Junkfood Science, approved testimonials: “I took it and I lost helped haven’t been following the of it and kindly reposted it (see weight.” People claimed not just weight program correctly. Apparent bad re - http://junkfoodscience.blogspot.com/20 loss but a variety of improvements. Is- actions are just signs that it is working: 06/11/can-you-really-cleanse-your-way- agenix allegedly cured fibromyalgia, os- “When one is cleansing out years of ac- to.html). teoarthritis, and hemorrhoids. It cumulation of toxins, chemicals, jet fuel, As I write, the comments on the facilitated getting off sleeping pills and gasoline, arsenic, heavy metals, radiation healthfraudoz website have reached caffeine, balanced brain chemistry poisoning—one will have reactions.” a total of 176. A few commenters (what does that mean?), improved focus approved of what I wrote, but the and mental clarity, allowed running ‘Evidence’ That It Works majority tried to defend Isagenix. Their longer marathons with less fatigue, One commenter heard a doctor speak defense was irrational, incompetent, saved a failing marriage, stopped irri- who cited all kinds of studies to support and sometimes amusing. tability and crankiness, and kept an arm the theory behind Isagenix—that Is- It was as if no one had actually read from getting sore after pitching. agenix cleansing can supposedly solve what I wrote. No one bothered to “Made my son interact appropriately the problems of environmental toxicity, address any of my specific criticisms. with peers, take care of himself, and want depletion of nutrients in the food sup- No one even tried to defend Isagenix’s to be hugged and kissed,” claimed one. ply, gastrointestinal malabsorption, and false claims that toxicity accounts for “I made money selling it,” our incessant food cravings. most disease, that the body protects said another. Here are some of the other com- itself from toxins by coating them with One person wrote, “My out-of- menters’ opinions, a few of which I’ve fat, and that internal organs become control Irritable Bowel Syndrome dis- replied to in brackets. clogged and deteriorate if you don’t appeared and I had the healthiest BM A former Hare Krishna was im- cleanse. No one offered any evidence in about 6 years! ... You can’t brain- pressed by the array of nutrients in the that “detoxification” improves human wash POO!!” products and believed that the doctor health. No one tried to identify any of Two people commented that the Is- on the website had integrity and cared the alleged toxins or show that they are agenix program provides motivation; about her patients. actually removed. No one tried to pro- one said he needs “structer” (structure?) Several people claimed that we need vide any rationale for the particular to stay on a diet. nutritional supplements because the combination of ingredients (all 242 of The plural of anecdote is not data. ground has been depleted of nutrients. them!) in Isagenix products. No one Two commenters appropriately ob- “There have been many valid scien- questioned my assertion that “no caf- jected to all this testimonial evidence. tific research [sic] to back the claims of feine added” is inaccurate labeling be- They pointed out that testimonials are Isagenix.” [I couldn’t find any, and they cause green tea, which is added, unreliable and subject to post hoc ergo provided no clues as to where to look.] contains caffeine. No one commented propter hoc error, that all the “it works for Others claimed that because lots of when I observed that the amount of vi- me” comments can be attributed to a MDs are recommending Isagenix it tamin A in these products is dangerous low-calorie diet and exercise, and that the must work; these MDs can’t all be and goes against the recommendations testimonials are almost exclusively from quacks. [Appar ently they can. Lots of of the Medical Letter. No one offered people who are selling the product. MDs recommend homeopathy, and any evidence that more weight is lost by some of them believe in astrology.] adding Isagenix to a low-calorie diet Anti-Testimonials Some commenters pointed out that and exercise. I offered some alternative Quite a few commenters reported that Isagenix has paid for independent stud- explanations that might account for they had tried Isagenix and it either ies. [Where are they? What did they people believing that Isagenix is effec- didn’t work or caused side effects, such show? If Isagenix was paying, were they tive when it isn’t; no one commented on as five days of violent diarrhea. One re- truly independent?] that. ported gaining a lot of weight while Mainstream physicians are starting to The medical advisor on the Isagenix taking it; many reported losing weight realize cleansing is important, other com- website argued that at five dollars per just as well without it. Several reported menters claimed. [Not any of the ones day, Isagenix is less expensive than credit-card disputes with the company who practice science-based medicine.] open-heart surgery. I pointed out that and failure to get their money re funded. One commenter proposed that this is a laughable false dichotomy: good One reported that his parents are using cleansing makes sense because one of

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the main ingredients of pesticides and insecticides is estrogen. It makes women fat and casues erectile dysfunction in men. Toxicity is a bigger cause of obesity than most people realize. Another commenter insisted that be - These people apparently expect cause these products are “designed and formulated by professionals and advo- us to believe unsubstantiated cated by professionals,” they must work. One MD commenter claimed, assertions. They have no concept “I have the before and after pictures and the lab tests to prove it.” of what constitutes scientific Pseudoscientific claims peppered many comments, such as this one: “Most evidence or why controlled people only absorb 8% to 12% of what we eat—the rest is waste which we flush studies are needed. down the toilet. With Isagenix we can absorb up to 94% of what is in gested with less waste going down the toilet. Is- agenix is full of good probiotics which help rebuild our digestive systems, fights candida. Isagenix also helps the body because products approved by the Food and One claimed I write only to feed my come alkaline, which is a healthy body. Drug Administration (FDA) don’t work, ego. John Hopkins 2008 Cancer Report and that MLM is “the most legitimate Another said I shouldn’t make com- stated that cancer cannot live in an alka- business out in the world today.” All cor- ments without doing any research. line body only acidic bodies. Processed porations are a pyramid anyway, they One thought I should try it for my- food makes our bodies acidic—thus the said. self. epedemic [sic] of cancer and diabites [sic] But one commenter called MLM an Another questioned why I didn’t learn in the USA along with heart disease.” “exploitative business model” and pointed more by attending a meeting for the [This is all nonsense.] out that the average yearly in come for Is- product, interviewing company represen- Isagenix is food, many commenters agenix distributors is only $116.87. An- tatives, or talking to the press. insisted. Regular food is from depleted other pointed out that 97 percent of Some thought instead of writing for soils. Organic food made children be have MLM schemes fail. the public I should have contacted the better at lunch in a school study. Genet- doctors at the company and discussed my ically modified food is lacking in nutri- Personal Attacks on Me concerns with them. tion. “The majority of people fill their “A Dr Harriet Hall wrote a very funny “Don’t try to convince us, Dr. Hall, stomachs with foods void of natural nu- one sided arguement [sic] against that you necessarily have ‘the answer.’” trition and the evidence supports that [Isagenix] but omitted to inform the [Did I say I did?] they behave poorly, learn less, misbehave world how much money she has made One alleged that I came to a conclu- more and commit more crimes than conning patients into taking drugs sion without any re search whatsoever; those who fill their stomachs with highly she should know are harmful to you.” this is from a doctor who said, “Cleansing nutritious organic produce and meats.” Some commenters thought I was is now my first choice for my patients.” [Wow! Instead of the Twinkie defense, arrogant: “If it were up to know-it-all One wondered what research he did to criminals can claim their non-organic MDs like Harriet Hall, I’d still be in make that choice. lunch made them do it!] chronic pain.” “Going out of her way to trash “Isagenix is a divine blessing in this “To [sic] bad when you look up Dr. Isagenix this way is pathetic.” toxic sick world.” Hall in Washington no such person is li- “PS ‘Dr.Hall’ your little family prac- These people apparently expect us to censed to practice medicine. Sad day tice designation really doesnt buy alot believe unsubstantiated assertions.They when you have to lie to get people [sic] of cred.” have no concept of what constitutes sci- to pay attention to anything you say. ...” “Real doctors don’t waste their time entific evidence or why controlled stud- [It took me about one minute to locate sitting on the internet making bogus ies are needed. verification of my license at https://fortre posts about different health products. . . ss.wa.gov/doh/providercredentialsearch/ I could sign as doctor and no one would Defense of Multilevel Marketing SearchResult.aspx.] know.” “MLM is not a scam, but one of the last One commenter questioned whether “This article is and the author is full bastions of free enterprise.” Some com- I am really a doctor and says I have a of crap. I know it and he knows it.” [I menters claimed that MLM is good be- small brain and a big mouth. know I’m not a “he.”]

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acupuncture work. If you ask for everything to be backed by studies, they just tailor the studies to benefit industry. Research things for yourself and don’t be a sheep taking pills from an MD.” A few commenters...pointed out Two commenters attacked the scientifically impeccable website Quack - that no one had actually addressed watch, asserting that Stephen Barrett is literally funded by Big Pharma, the any of the points I made or offered American Medical Asso ciation (AMA), and the FDA to produce disinformation any evidence that what I wrote aimed at discrediting alternative medicine. [He has no ties to any of those or- was wrong. ganizations.] “See how herbs can treat people, not drugs,” one commenter advised. “Did any of you see Sicko? If you did how could you possibly take one physi- Some commenters thought I didn’t the death dealing treatments they inflict cians [sic] ‘opinion’ about something know anything and I should just shut up. upon the rest of the population.” she didn’t even try over the many tes- “This is just another doctor that Some commenters claimed that timonials.” stands to loose [sic] their income by the even if evidence showed Isagenix Some commenters felt they knew masses becoming healthy.” worked, conventional medicine still better than any doctor: “I choose to ob- “What ever [sic] Dr. Harriet Hall is wouldn’t adopt it because of competi- serve how my own body feels and reacts selling, I’m not interested.” [For the tion from drug companies. Many doc- to what I ingest.” record, I’m retired and the only thing tors are typically overweight and/or out “If you think its [sic] going to help it I’m “selling” is critical thinking.] of shape. The majority of emergency will,” one commenter suggested. Some suggested that just because department doctors are lacking skills in Some put forth that the real answer I went to medical school doesn’t mean emergency procedures. is to integrate Eastern with Western I’m a smart person. One person commented, “MD’s [sic] medicine. keep American’s [sic] addicted to drugs! “Oh, and I have found prayer helps Kudos MD’s also fancy themselves as God me,” one Isagenix proponent added. A few commenters offered agreement like. They think that being an MD al- One commenter tried to turn the ta- and praise; they pointed out that no one lows them to keep American’s from bles on me: “I feel it is unfair to say Is- had actually addressed any of the points seeking nutrition.” agenix is making unsubstantiated claims, I made or offered any evidence that “Our medical doctors have failed and that it doesn’t actually help you at what I wrote was wrong. They repri- us,” one person lamented. all...... isn’t that an unsubstantiated claim manded other commenters for resort- Another observed: “So sad that peo- too?” [I didn’t claim that it didn’t work; I ing to ad hominem attacks. ple in our medical profession have no said there was no evidence that it did, idea what they are talking about!!!” and no reason to think it would.] Attacks on the Medical Profession Many of the commenters seemed to Attacks on Science Attacks on the FDA and Big Pharma think that doctors know nothing about Commenters insisted that instead of Many commenters suggested that the nutrition. Doctors just put bandages listening to science, one should listen to FDA disclaimer about Isagenix is on problems: they sell pills that mask one’s own body. meaningless and believe we shouldn’t symptoms and wreak havoc on your body Some asked: even if it’s only a placebo, take FDA warnings seriously: “It is a instead of treating underlying causes. why not use it? terrorist organization that lies, cheats They only want to make money. They Western medicine is trying to steals, and intimidates anyone who want to keep people sick so they won’t “squash Eastern medicine,” one com- stands between them and the targets of lose their kickbacks. [What kickbacks?] menter believed. their wrath.” There are lots of malpractice suits. Another warned: “Things work for “Dr Hall if you think the FDA is “Most MD’s [sic] will not even take different people. Chiro practic and doing a good job you must love some

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of the poison they approve, such as It’s a Scam both Isagenix and his chiropractor. “I have Aspartame.” Quite a few people agreed with what been feeling better ever since I stopped Some commenters erroneously I wrote. Several were outspoken in call- having my head wrenched and being put thought doctors got commissions for ing Isagenix a scam. on a rack and practically decapitated week prescribing drugs. “People would rather rave about this after week, except for the apparently per- One even asserted that a conspiracy crap than admit that they were fooled manent click in my neck that wasn’t there of J.D. Rockefeller is behind the phar- into wasting their money.” before.” maceutical industry and that many pre- “Without even considering the “We fertilize our soil with fake nu- scriptions are made from manipulation science, common sense helped me spot trients and usually do not replace with of petroleum. this as bullshit.” all 60 nutrients the plants need to be People die from drugs, commenters “Isagenix is a freakish cult perpe- healthy so they are prone to diesease insisted. trated on the uncritical, by the un - [sic—a disease that they die from?] and “My doctor wanted me to start beta scrupulous, using the desperate search incests [sic].” [Gotta watch out for those blockers, after much investigation I de- for the ever-elusive ‘easy solution.’” incestuous plants!] cided that I was to [sic] young to have my One reported that a cousin and her “I never hear anything from the liver contaminated by these pills . ...” boyfriend are “making a TON of medical field about elevating the PH Many commenters assured us that money selling this stuff to all of you level in the human body to keep in natural remedies work just as well and morons stupid enough to buy it and from being to acidic. That study was are safer than prescriptions. make them rich. ISAGENIX only done by Dr Lioness Paulings medical Several commenters fervently be - ‘works’ for the people selling it. Diet reseacher and nobel prize winner.” [Er- rors in original. Lioness?!] lieved that pharmaceuticals are the ulti- and exercise WORKS for everyone!” mate money-making scam. “Whoever started this blog is an Concerns idiot.” “I am amazed at the amount of ing- Off-the-Wall False Claims A few commenters expressed concerns norance [sic] on this Blog. Whom [sic] “The FDA (yes, those great friends of about the product. One commenter ever allows this should be ashamed.” ours) just recently put a new advisement said the Isagenix company representa- My favorite comment of all was “Dr out there that we will soon be required to tive couldn’t answer questions about Harriet Hall is a refrigerator with a irradiate ALL raw vegetables and fruits origin of ingredients and quality con- head.” I don’t know what that means, [it certainly did not!]. Do you all know trol. There have been no controlled but its whimsical imagery appeals to my what irradiation does to food? It not only studies. Where is the evidence? How sense of humor. kills ‘bad’ things like e. coli, but it kills nu- do we know it is safe? Long-term re- In looking back at this whole kerfuf- trients from your foods as well.” sults remain to be seen. How many can fle, it became clear to me that there had maintain this restrictive lifestyle for Try It for Yourself been a colossal barrier to communica- years? Why isn’t Isagenix being regu- tion. The person who had originally Numerous commenters seemed to lated by the FDA? “I am a little con- asked me about Isagenix, the blog think the best way to determine if a cerned about the way some people owner, and I were all operating in the treatment works is to try it yourself. But discuss this product in almost cult-like arena of science and evidence. Most of one commenter rightfully pointed out fashion. It makes me wonder if there the commenters were operating in a that the try-it-yourself argument is fal- are mind-control drugs in this stuff.” whole different universe of discourse lacious and condescending: “One does Two Jokes based on belief, hope, hearsay, and per- not have to experience snake venom to sonal experience. Science is like a for- know to stay away from snakes.” “I got a refund check from [the] IRS eign language to them, and they were after starting Isagenix.” Haven’t Tried It But Plan To incapable of understanding my points. “I have some magic beans for sale. Try Pearls before swine . . . n Several commenters were planning to try eating right and exercising in stead.” it after reading the article and comments. Harriet Hall, MD, is a retired One of these said he knows firefighters Funny, Unhelpful, and Bizarre Comments family physician who writes regularly about untested who use it and he “would rather have one “Who cares whether it works or not. medical remedies and of the firefighters doing brain surgery on This stuff tastes like 9-day old garbage medical pseudoscience. me, than let the average physician tell me mixed with water from a sewer.” She is a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER what is going on in my body.” [Wow! One man took it on the recommenda- contributing editor and a Does this guy even have a brain?] tion of his chiropractor; he now distrusts Com mittee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow.

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The Voynich Manucript The Book Nobody Can Read

For almost 100 years, experts and amateur researchers have tried to solve the riddle of a handwritten book, referred to as the “Voynich manuscript,” composed in an unknown script. The numerous theories about this remarkable document are contradictory and range from plausible to adventurous.

KLAUS SCHMEH

he facts regarding the Voynich manuscript can be told parent that the author was quite accurate: there are no visible corrections in quickly. It is a handwritten book of 246 pages contain- the text. Unfortunately, the Voynich ing numerous illustrations and approximately 170,000 text itself is not divided into chapters; T there are no subheadings. characters. What is special about it? The script em ployed is utterly unknown and therefore illegible. According to a ra- Uncommon Illustrations diocarbon analysis conducted in 2009 by the University of Approximately 220 of the 246 Voynich Arizona, the manuscript was created in the first half of the pages are illustrated. Some of the pages can be unfolded, revealing illustrations fifteenth century (probably between 1404 and 1438). So far, that extend to several page lengths. Be- there is no written publication on this analysis, but one of cause, unlike the text, the illustrations can the scientists involved in the examination confirmed by e- be divided into different sections, six chapters of the Voynich manuscript can mail that a paper is scheduled for 2011. be distinguished: the botanical chapter (with large plant illustrations), the astro- The modern history of the Voynich what it contains, and what its purpose nomical chapter (with charts containing manuscript began in 1912. At that was. In light of the meager evidence, celestial bodies and the zodiac signs), the time, a bookseller and book collector I—as a skeptic and member of GWUP balneological chapter (with nude female named Wilfried Voynich found it in an (the German counterpart of CSI)—am figures in tubs), the cosmological chapter Italian Jesuit college. Further informa- not surprised at the great number of (with circles and rosettes), the pharma- tion is provided in a letter dated 1666, speculative theories about the mysteri- ceutical chapter (with plants, parts of which—according to Voynich—was ous script. I will present the most implants, and pots), as well as a chapter with en closed with the manuscript. This portant ideas here. food recipes (without illustrations). document names some other previous A good point of entry into a Voy - The different illustrations can hardly owners who had all lived in the first nich analysis is certainly the script of be related to a common topic. Thus the half of the seventeenth century, thus in- the document itself. The author of the Voynich manuscript—if it has mean- dicating that the manuscript had been manuscript wrote from left to right— ingful content at all—must be a treatise written before then. On the basis of this this can be discerned from the left- on many different subjects. One may letter, Voynich favored the English aligned formatting. The typeface and possibly say that it is a textbook for ma- monk and Renaissance man Roger size of the characters are inconspicuous, gicians, physicians, pharmacists, and as- Bacon (1214–1294) as the book’s au- which is not altered by the fact that the trologers (when it comes to these thor. However, this theory is now context contains no punctuation marks, be- professions, their borders were still sidered very improbable. cause this is unexceptional for old texts. blurred 500 years ago). Provided that it Not many more historic facts are Thus it is evident to a layman, even be- is hardly possible to recognize signifi- known about the Voynich manuscript fore inspection of the illustrations, that cant symbols and religious motives (Kennedy and Churchill 2005). In par- the Voynich manuscript has its origins within it, the Voynich manuscript can ticular, it is unclear who wrote the book, in European culture. More over, it is ap- neither be assigned to a certain school

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of thought nor to a particular religion. Unfortunately, none of the 126 plant illustrations can be definitively identified. However, the plant pictures at least enabled certain conclusions re garding the date of origin, before the radiocarbon dating was performed. Com - parisons of artistic styles showed that the manuscript presumably did not originate before the fourteenth century, which was, of course, later confirmed. Not confirmed, however, was a theory stated by the botanist Hugh O’Neill (O’Neill 1944). He considered two plant illustrations as representing sun- flowers and identified another one as capsicum. Because both plants spread in Europe only after the “discovery” of America, their identification appeared to narrow down the period of origin. However, the two identifications O’Neill made are not precisely com- Botanist Hugh O’Neill (1944) identified this illustration as a sunflower. However, this interpretation does not pelling, and thus O’Neill’s conclusion— appear to be completely conclusive. like so many others in connection with the manuscript—is just speculation. Taking all facts into account, it is as- the manuscript, but in many cases it is It is hardly more illuminating to take tonishing how little the numerous illus- not clear whether identical or different a look at the astronomical and the cos- trations reveal about the Voynich symbols have been used. For this same mological sections, which contain pic- man u script. Does this make an argument reason, letter frequency cannot be de- tures that can be identified as the Zodiac for the whole document being meaning- termined clearly. Nevertheless, the lan- signs still familiar today (Aries, Taurus, less? Or did the author intentionally guage of the manuscript can be brought Libra, and so forth). Scarcely another il- choose ambiguous illustrations to pre- in line with European languages, be- lustration in the Voynich manuscript is vent inferences about the en crypted (and cause the average word length is four or as unambiguous. Unfortunately, this ob- therefore secret) text? I consider both ex- five letters. Following this line of con- servation does not result in further in- planations to be possible. sideration, arguments can be put for- sight into the book’s origin. The celestial ward that Greek, Latin, or one of bodies illustrated in the astronomical Cryptological Analyses several other European languages was section cannot be identified and proba- A glance at the pictures in the manu- used to compose the Voynich manu- bly are only figments of imagination. script is indeed interesting, but as a cryp- script. It is a pity that this approach Some Voynich researchers believe they tologist I am naturally more interested in does not implicate a specific language. recognize in these pictures the Androm- the Voynich text. It is unclear whether it However, the language of the man- eda fog or the Pleiades, but this again is is an encrypted message or simply a text uscript does not correspond to any Eu- just speculation. composed of unknown letters. This is ir- ropean language because the Voy nich The hairstyles and clothing of the relevant for cryptological analysis, be- has no two-letter words or words with people pictured in the book, as well as the cause the use of un known letters is also a more than ten characters. More over, it style of the illustrations, were usually form of encryption. For the analysis of an is curious that some words are repeated dated to the period 1450–1520, which encrypted text, cryptology provides quite successively up to five times. The disproved reasonably compatible with the a number of statistical methods—for ex- tribution of the letters within each radiocarbon dating (between 1404 and ample the determination of letter fre- word also does not answer known lan- 1438). In most cases, the pictured per- quencies. Some of these analyses indicate guage patterns. Looking at the text as a sons are naked women in big tubs filled that the Voynich manuscript is com- whole, far fewer recurring words turn with water, which makes conclusive in- posed in a usual language but written in up than would be expected. Such argu- terpretation of these illustrations in the unknown letters. There are between fif- ments reveal with a high probability context of fashion im possible. teen and twenty-five different letters in that—against all appearance to the

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Detail of the Voynich manuscript text.

contrary—we are not dealing with a simple substitution of letters. There also is no clear evidence that other simple encryption methods were used. A study by the philosopher William Newbold took another direction. New - bold declared he had solved the Voy nich mystery in 1921 (Newbold 1928). He considered as relevant not the letters themselves but the small, barely visible marks applied to them. These marks supposedly formed Greek characters, making up a text that could be decoded into a meaningful message. The result seemed to be sensational: the produced message not only confirmed Roger Bacon as the manuscript’s author, but it reputedly also revealed that Bacon already had a telescope at his disposal and knew the spiral structure of the An- dromeda galaxy—either of which would revolutionize the history of science. But as expected, Newbold’s de cryption came across as largely arbitrary and moreover only worked for a short section of the text. Therefore Newbold’s theory could not prevail. In 1943, the lawyer Joseph Feely published a cryptological paper regarding the Voynich manuscript. Feely, too, presented as a direct result of his research the supposed solution of the Voynich encryption (Feely 1943). By In the astronomical chapter of the Voynich manuscript are illustrations of celestial bodies and signs. means of statistical analyses, he had

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None of the plants illustrated in the Voynich manuscript could conclusively be identified.

come to the conviction that the manu- each assigned several letters of the Latin Voynich manuscript. Rugg’s experi- script was composed in Latin and con- alphabet (Brumbaugh 1978). However, ment supports the hypothesis that the tained numerous abbreviations and the decryption provided by Brumbaugh manuscript is nothing but a compila- abbreviated sentences. With this basis, did not make any sense. Another dis- tion of meaningless lines of letters (the Feely translated a forty-one-line section pensable Voynich analysis was published hoax hypothesis) (Rugg 2004). The of the manuscript. Unfortunately, by the physician Leo Levitov in 1987 hoax hypothesis is backed by a text Feely’s approach made no sense at all (Levitov 1987). He, too, believed that he analysis by the Austrian physicist An- and therefore quickly turned out to be had decrypted the text. According to dreas Schinner. Schinner discovered a further dead end in Voynich research. Levitov, the book is composed in an old unnatural regularities in the word order The U.S. cryptologist William form of Flemish that assimilated Ger- of the manuscript that do not occur in Fried man (1891–1969) was consider- man and French words. Levitov sup- any known language. He therefore also ably more competent. He is regarded as posed that in this manner a literary came to the conclusion that the Voyn- the most successful code-cracker of all language emerged that served as an al- ich manuscript is a fraud’s artful fabri- ages; his name guarantees cryptological ternative to the Latin language common cation, containing merely meaningless quality. In the course of his forty-year at that time. According to Levitov, the nonsense (Schinner 2007). career, Friedman examined thousands manuscript turned out to be written by A relatively new theory was published of encryption methods during his serv- the Cathari in the Middle Ages. How- by Briton Nick Pelling (2006). He con- ice for the U.S. military and solved al- ever, Levitov’s paper is so full of specu- siders the Italian architect Antonio Aver- most all of them. Unfortunately, despite lative assumptions that it can barely be lino (1400–1469) to be the Voynich all the texts he successfully analyzed, he taken seriously. author. Pelling supposes that Averlino es- had to surrender in the case of the The British linguist Gordon Rugg is caped to Constantino ple (Istanbul) Voynich manuscript. He therefore among the most reputable Voynich re- around the year 1465, having beforehand could not bequeath more to posterity searchers. He conducted a most inter- recorded his knowledge as encrypted in than an educated guess. Friedman con- esting cryptological experiment. For his the Voynich manuscript. Pelling provides sidered the text to be a treatise com- experiment, Rugg generated a table numerous cryptological analyses that posed in an artificial language. with random combinations of charac- supposedly allow us to infer an applied ters that he used as prefixes, roots, or method, but he does not present a solu- More Current Studies suffixes of new words. He positioned a tion. If we accept an inaccuracy of a few The next Voynich studies worth men- quadratic stencil, like the ones used for decades, Pelling’s theory is consistent tioning originate with Robert Brum- encryption in the sixteenth century, with the radiocarbon analysis. However, baugh, a professor of the philosophy of over the table. In this manner he ob- I consider the Averlino hypothesis very the Middle Ages. He holds that the un- tained a sequence of letters that bore speculative. In addition, it seems im - known characters are numerals that are great resemblance to the text of the probable that the Voynich manuscript—

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which without any doubt would have at- maybe he even acted by order of such a question is heavily debated among Voy - tracted attention in the course of a lug- person. Another theory, which I consider nich scholars, and some think it impos- gage inspection—merely served as a plausible, posits that the Voy nich author sible. However, there have been but few means of secure transport. was a mentally ill person (for example, attempts to create a text that resembles someone suffering from autism); it is the original. Rugg’s method is one exam- What Is Behind It? quite common for mentally ill people to ple, but there should be many more—in- Looking at the diverse cryptological create art. As far as I know, this hypo- volving en cryption procedures as well as analyses of the Voynich text, we come thetical origin of the Voynich manuscript methods for producing meaningless let- to a similar result as we did regarding has never been researched by an expert. ter sequences. If one of the results has the illustrations: a seemingly good ini- If the Voynich manuscript is really a statistical properties similar to those of tial theory becomes downright poor hoax—as I suspect it is—it is very likely the Voynich text, this might tell us which once investigated. This is one of several that the text is mere nonsense. However method the Voynich author applied. reasons that at least one thing became there are two other theories worth men- The Voynich manuscript is and most clear to me after looking at the most tioning. The first one is based on a fact likely will remain a riddle. We can hope important theories: the Voynich manu- known by every cryptologist: that the that the manuscript will not merely be- script does not offer an obvious expla- design of a secure encryption procedure come a playing field for mystics and nation. Nevertheless, it is possible to will become distinctly simpler if the en- pseudoscientists. After all, the subject is narrow down the solution. First of all, I crypted text is longer than the original fascinating enough without adventurous am not aware of any convincing theory text. Under this condition, it is in fact speculation. n regarding the author of the manuscript. possible to hide the original information That the manuscript is a forgery made in meaningless filler text. It is absolutely Note in the early twentieth century, which possible that the author of the Voynich The original German version of this article was published in the journal Skeptiker. This Eng- was a plausible and much-discussed hy- manuscript used this trick. Perhaps he lish version was translated by Susanne Kisser and pothesis for decades, can meanwhile be transferred an original, shorter text (e.g., edited by SKEPTICAL INQUIRER staff. In October ruled out. This assumption is not only 50,000 letters) into an unknown script 2010, the author updated this article with considerable new information. disproved by the radiocarbon analysis and extended the result to the 170,000 but also by a recently discovered seven- letters he finally put down. Unfor - References teenth-century document that mentions tunately nobody has yet discovered a Brumbaugh, Robert S. 1978. The Most Mysterious the Voynich manuscript. There fore, we pattern that allows the separation of the Manuscript: The Voynich “Roger Bacon” Cipher must search for the author half a mil- original from the filler letters. If such a Manuscript. Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press. lennium in the past. However, Roger pattern exists and is sufficiently complex, Feely, Joseph M. 1943. Roger Bacon’s Cipher: The Bacon and several other proposed authen there is only a minimal chance that Right Key Found. Rochester, NY: n.p. thors (for instance Leonardo da Vinci) it will ever be decrypted. Kennedy, Gerry, and Rob Churchill. 2005. The Voynich Manuscript. London: Orion Books lived in the wrong time to be the author, If the Voynich text is not simply non- Limited. and Antonio Averlino is a very specula- sense, I consider the artificial-language Levitov, Leo. 1987. Solution of the Voynich Manu - tive guess. This means that the author hypothesis developed by William Fried- script: A Liturgical Manual for the Endura Rite of the Cathari Heresy, the Cult of Isis. Laguna of the Voynich manuscript was probably man as a second plausible theory. It is Hills, CA: Aegean Park Press. an anonymous artist living in the first certain that alchemists and scientists Newbold, William Romaine. 1928. The Cipher of half of the fifteenth century. Maybe it made efforts to develop secret languages Roger Bacon. Philadelphia: University of Penn syl vania Press. was even someone who is completely during the Renais sance. Maybe such a O’Neill, Hugh. 1944. Botanical remarks on the forgotten today. secret language expressed in unknown Voynich MS. Speculum 19: 126 I am also not aware of a convincing letters forms the basis of the Voynich Pelling, Nick. 2006. The Curse of the Voynich: The Secret History of the World’s Most Mysterious theory explaining the meaning of the manuscript. How ever, there is no precise Manuscript. Surrey, UK: Compelling Press. many figures in the Voynich manuscript. assumption as to what the underlying ar- Rugg, Gordon. 2004. An elegant hoax? A possi- Neither the plants, which have no equiv- tificial language might have looked like. ble solution to the Voynich manuscript. Cryp- tologia 28(1) ( January): 31. alent in nature, nor the other illustrations However, the most probable theory is Schinner, Andreas. 2007. The Voynich manu - make any sense. The most likely expla- that the Voynich manuscript does not script: Evidence of the hoax hypothesis. Cryp- nation therefore is that the figures don’t contain meaningful text. The papers of tologia 31(2) (April): 95. have a meaning at all. Prob ably they were Gordon Rugg and Andreas Schinner Klaus Schmeh, a computer just included to make the manuscript suggest not only this theory of a hoax, scientist, works as an en- look more mysterious. If the figures have but the assumption that the manuscript cryption expert for a German no meaning, it is very likely that the has no real purpose. In my view, there are software producer. He is au- Voynich manuscript didn’t serve a real still some interesting open research ques- thor of several cryptological purpose. My favorite explanation for the tions in this area. Was it possible to pro- and scientific books (mostly published only in German). manuscript is that it was simply created duce hundreds of pages of nonsensical His book Codeknacker gegen Codemacher to produce a mystery. Maybe the author text that has many things in common (W3L-Verlag, 2007) deals with the history of intended to sell it for a large amount of with natural language by using a method encryption technology. He is a member of the money to a wealthy contemporary, or available in the fifteenth century? This German skeptic organization GWUP.

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FORUM]

Hope: Faith, Atheism, and Agnosticism

JONATHAN C. SMITH

he great season of hope is upon us just in time. We kind, or third kind? Does it matter? Most faith debates begin, dangerously, have just survived the season of the skeptic’s discon- with dictionary definitions. Here faith is tent. This season of hope began gently enough with usually seen as (1) belief in a supernatural T entity (god); (2) belief in anything for James Randi’s in spiring acknowledgement (at age eighty- which there is no proof or contrary evi- one) that he is gay, saying it’s no big thing. I smiled at his dence; (3) uncritical belief in anything great, big move and welcomed him to the club. Then, sadly, for any reason; or (4) confidence in a Christopher Hitchens shared his fight with cancer, still claim. viewing all religion as manmade and divine revelation as Types of Faith false. (He says any later confession of faith should be dis- Real-world faith claims can be confusing. I like to sort them into two groups: counted as a symptom of progressing dementia. A holiday claims concerning objective facts and supernatural claims. For each, people em - message for us all?) And, remarkably, in brace or reject claims on the basis of just two short months both the New evidence, unfalsifiability, and emotion. York Times and the Washington Post These bases reflect faith of the first kind, graced us with nearly a dozen never- faith of the second kind, and faith of the ending blogs on faith and atheism. And third kind (apologies to J. Allen Hynek). of course there’s Anne Rice, known for 1. Believers of the First Kind. her blockbuster gothic vampire novels. Rice created controversy among the Em pirical faith claims are open spooky community of recreational para- to critical evaluation. These are normalists with her proclamation that provisional claims. she will never truly belong to the “quar- “I have faith in my doctor relsome, hostile, disputatious, and de- until he starts prescribing the wrong medications.” Jonathan C. Smith is professor of psy- servedly infamous group” known as “I have faith that healing chology at Chicago's Roosevelt Univer- Christians unless she becomes “anti-gay sity and head of its Pseudoscience ... anti-feminist … anti-artificial birth prayer works until my prayers go and Paranormal Lab. He is author of control . . . anti-secular humanism . .. completely un answered.” the popular textbook, Pseudocience anti-science . . . anti-life.” Skeptics of the first kind look and Extraordinary Claims of the Para- This might be a good time to try to for empirical evidence; presence normal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit, and sort things out. When it comes to god, or absence of objective evidence is working on his twentieth book. He is ghosts, and all things paranormal, what contributes to or reduces the a licensed clinical psychologist. His reason for belief. website may be found at www.lulu. kind of believer (or disbeliever) are you? com/stress; e-mail stressinstitute Are you a person of faith? Are you a be- 2. Believers of the Second Kind. @aol.com. liever/disbeliever of the first kind, second Un falsifiable faith claims are

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More on Faith Claims of the Second Kind (Unfalsifable) Faith claims of the second kind are essentially immune to full application of the tools of critical thinking. However, A believer of the second kind such claims are often presented as if they have survived careful evaluation. might assert that unfalsifiability We see the religious profess that doubt builds faith or that religion and science of a claim gives one license to need not be in conflict. On close examination, one often discovers that the accept the claim on faith alone. task of critical thinking has been applied superficially and terminated prematurely (aborted). More seriously, one might discover that openness to critical thinking in fact applies to peripheral claims (miracles of walking on water) and not central claims (resurrections). Again, when such religious claims assertions logically impossible to be an unexamined time or place, are of the second kind, they enjoy evaluate with evidence; support some hole deep under the Great something of a protected status, ulti- is not conceivable. Pyramid of Egypt, where a mately immune from the onslaughts of “I believe that the ability of UFO may have landed. critical thinking. Critical thinking may psychics to read minds is a ‘jeal- Skeptics of the second kind be applied partially, but it is applied ous phenomenon’ that automati- do not embrace apparently em- only in service of the claim (doubt cally becomes unmeasurable in pirical claims that are unfalsifi- builds faith). Claims of the first kind the presence of scientists, skep- able: meaningless,un measurable, are by definition provisional and open tics, or magicians.” or universal negatives. In con- to challenge. Claims of the third kind “I believe that God provides trast, believers of the second are blind. Although they may or may concrete answers to our concrete kind may be comfortable assert- not be open to challenge, they reflect an prayers but does so in a way that ing that their faith is based on easy or narcissistic decision to embrace cannot be proven; he does not something unfalsifiable. Such a belief simply because one wants to (or want to take away our free will.” a believer might assert that because it feels right, is very beautiful, “I believe that in the entire unfalsifiability of a claim gives or is highly desired) and an equally nar- span of human history there has one license to accept the claim cissistic choice to reject courageous and been at least one flying saucer on faith alone. possibly uncomfortable attempts at landing that cannot be ex- 3. Believers of the Third Kind. critical evaluation. This is blind faith. plained away logically.” Emo tional faith claims are The claim that a psychic can believed for no reason other Issues of Faith, Science, read your thoughts would seem than personal preference. These and Atheism to be easy enough to test. are claims of blind faith. Simply conduct a blind reading. Much has been written about the pre- But it can’t be tested because “I have faith that George sumed conflict between science and re- such a power is jealous. Simi- Washington never lied. No criti- ligion. The role of faith is one larly, one might think that the cal evaluation will change my important issue. Our schema may help ability of the divine to heal an mind.” sort things out. illness should be open to evalua- “I have faith that healing tion. Alas, this is not so if the prayer works for people I do not The Faith of Science all-powerful deity always wants know and am not in contact Both the scientist and the religious be - us to keep guessing. Similarly, with. I will not consider any liever have faith. However, it is a pro- our flying-saucer claim seems critical evaluation of my claim.” found oversimplification to equate the open to assessment on the “I cannot conceive of a uni- kinds of faith they embrace. A scientist surface. One indisputable obser- verse without a god. Therefore trusts the tools of critical thinking and vation could make a convincing there is a god.” the body of scientific findings produced case, but negative evidence is Skeptics of the third kind by such tools. Such trust represents ob- not possible. There will always wisely leave such people alone. jective faith of the first kind. It is pro-

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visional and could conceivably be altered in the face of new evidence. In contrast, objective faith of the first kind is anathema to the religious believer. Religious faith is typically of the second (unfalsifiable) or third (blind) kind, both of which are anathema to science. It would be a bit silly to assert, Atheism and Agnosticism Going further, those who choose not to “Are there moon-men? embrace supernatural faith and do not believe in a theistic god are atheists. The jury is out. Is green tea the Here again we can identify several kinds of atheistic lack of faith. One who is an fountain of life? The jury is out. atheist of the first kind believes that supernatural entities do not exist but is Are spoon-bending psychics willing to change one’s mind in face of new evidence. But is this not agnosti- real? The jury is out.” cism? Agnosticism is a doctrine that a god is possible, but there is not sufficient reason for accepting or rejecting this belief. Atheists believe that there is, for now, sufficient evidence to make an intelligent choice. Thus, both agnostics and atheists of the first kind may it is unfalsifiable. The question of support. If you believe in witches be- change their minds when confronted whether or not such an entity exists is cause you have a hunch, or you believe with credible evidence; until this hap- equally devoid of meaning. One might the expert testimony of a single profes- pens, the atheist chooses not to believe just as well posit the existence of an in- sor, then you must respect the testi- whereas the agnostic chooses not to visible pink unicorn or, my favorite, a mony-based hunches of everyone, make a decision. Flying Spaghetti Monster (see my including those who believe in vampires, This is worth elaborating. The agnos- book God Speaks: The Flying Spaghetti ghosts, pixies, and the inferiority of tic stance is essentially that “the jury is Monster in His Own Words). Such an women, gays, Muslims, and so on. It’s a out” concerning a claim. Sensible and atheist may claim that purely supernat- true Pandora’s box of a holiday gift. One thinking people, including true believers, ural hypotheses are unnecessary for ex- way out is to proclaim a personal, special make up their minds all the time. It is plaining natural phenomena. exemption from the rules of honesty and perfectly reasonable to decide not to be- An atheist of the third kind refuses accept one’s preferred faith claims while lieve in intelligent life on the moon, the to accept evidence for a theistic god, questioning those of others. But such nar- power of herbal tea to extend life by fifty even if such were to emerge. It is always cissistic intellectual fascism is currently years, or even the claims of famous psy- possible that a naturalistic explanation out of favor in Western civilization. chics like Uri Geller that they can some- may exist for any claimed supernatural Finally, is there hope at the bottom of times bend spoons with their thoughts. event. If faced with an apparent para- the box? Can one be an atheist, of any Indeed, it would be a bit silly to assert, normal event, an atheist of the third “Are there moon-men? The jury is out. kind may tolerate not having a natura- kind, and live a spiritual life? Of course. Is green tea the fountain of life? The jury listic explanation over prematurely em - As I wrote in Pseudoscience and Extra - is out. Are spoon-bending psychics real? bracing one that is supernatural. For ordinary Claims of the Paranormal, “The The jury is out.” An absence of faith in them, “I don’t know” is always better spiritual journey is a search for transcen- such claims does not reflect a rigid athe- than “God did it.” dent realities and possibilities hidden in ism because it does not preclude the pos- the fog of selfishness, superstition, and sibility that at some time supportive Does Faith Survive? ignorance” (p. xii). This does not have to evidence for the claim might emerge. Pandora’s Box or Source of Hope? be a sky god, an imaginary friend in These are atheists following the simple Through faith one may accept as fact a Jesus, or a dizzying touch of quantum rules of common sense. claim that has yet to earn credible sup- consciousness. But one must always be Of course, an atheist of the second port. Doing this poses an enormous risk. on the lookout for vampires or false gods. kind asserts that the notion of a theistic To be intellectually honest, one must ac- They can capture your soul for decades. god is a meaningless construct because cept as fact all claims with comparable That’s my message of the season. n

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Paranormal Beliefs and Insight

If paranormal believers and people with mental illnesses share commonalities, it is not in symptomatology but in a limited capacity for insight.

GARY M. BAKKER

t would not be surprising if a skeptic were to ask a Smith’s speculation about why schizophrenics may do this is a psychological clinical psychologist, “Are true believers in the paranor- one: They may be trying to reduce their Imal crazy?” There does seem to be some sort of “crazy terror by attributing the voices they hear thinking” going on. But is this crazy thinking psychotic— to an outside source such as space aliens. such as occurs in schizophrenia—or is it a more subtle and There are many problems with attempts at such a psychologically rooted expla- widespread type of craziness? nation. First, it is unclear how “Space aliens are controlling my thoughts” is less This is the question addressed by frightening than “I have a mental illness Jonathan C. Smith in his previous causing delusional thinking.” Second, in- Forum column, “Paranormal Beliefs and sight-oriented psychotherapies such as Schizo phrenia” (SI, September/October psychoanalysis have had a dismal record 2010). Smith pointed out that it is not the in treating psychosis. Even cognitive- occurrence of psychotic symptoms (such behavioral therapy, which relies on some as auditory hallucinations) that true be- degree of insight to motivate its cognitive lievers and schizophrenics have in com- control strategies, has so far had only a mon, but rather the way they each see limited and temporary effect on psychotic and explain their bizarre experiences. symptomatology. Third, usual levels of in- So, true paranormal believers are not sight across the different psychopatholo- crazy in a psychotic sense. Similar to gies do not correlate with the degree of Gary M. Bakker is a clinical psycholo- people with schizophrenia, they lack in- anxiety involved in the disorder. I will gist in private practice in Tasmania, sight. I don’t mean insight in a shallow, now provide three examples of this lack Australia. He is the author of an evi- specific, temporary sense, such that a of an insight/anxiety correlation. dence-based cognitive-behavioral proper read of a good skeptical article I had once been asked to assess an therapy text and is a contributor to The might set them straight. I mean they older man who pointed a gun at a neigh- Skeptic in Australia (see www.skeptics.com.au). His e-mail address is lack insight in a radical, deep, even neu- bor because he believed the neighbor [email protected]. rological sense: as can occur in many had been jumping his fence and inter- psychological/psychiatric disorders. fering with items in his backyard. When Schizophrenics are renowned for I visited this man, he showed me the lacking this kind of insight. With few rough edges of an old concrete path that exceptions, even when they are well— the neighbor had allegedly been chip- that is, not floridly psychotic—schizo- ping away at during the night. This man phrenics generally just don’t get it. They had a delusional disorder. There was no downplay, ignore, or even try to justify fear involved, but there was much mis- their bizarre beliefs and behavior. guided anger. That man had absolutely

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no insight into the distortions in his thinking or logic, nor had he any rea- Thinking scientifically can clearly be sonable evidence for his belief that his neighbor had been in his yard. achieved through training and On the other hand, I have worked with hundreds of people suffering from so is worth a try. But some will panic disorder. With this condition, life stress, too much coffee, or some other never get it. They are hardwired cause brings on a spontaneous “panic attack,” which, because it is an unpre- to believe in the paranormal. dictable and horrendous experience, causes fear that another attack may oc- curr at any time. This fear perpetuates the anxiety, which can in turn make the sufferer feel like a panic attack is about to instill. It is the capacity for insight, motivate them to begin ignoring their to come on. If unchecked, this cycle can seemingly at a neurological level, that is compulsions. Others simply cannot. lead to agoraphobia as the person missing. Some people who have had a Similarly, some true believers in the avoids more and more “unsafe” situa- stroke will neglect or ignore one side of paranormal may be amenable to logic, tions due to the fear that an attack will the body. Pointing this out to them may especially if they are exposed to it at a occur. The treatment of panic disorder or may not help. Some even disown young age. Thinking scientifically can can be as brief as three sessions; the at- their arm, asserting that it belongs to clearly be achieved through training tacks stop after the above “problem- someone else! Brain scans of girls with and so is worth a try. But some will maintaining circles” are explained to the anorexia nervosa show that when they never get it. They are hardwired to be- sufferer and better coping techniques look in the mirror, they actually halluci- lieve in the paranormal. are practiced—that is, once insight is nate and see a fat person. I have had hypnagogic and hypno - achieved. This disorder is not charac- It is hard to engender insight in pompic experiences, hallucinations that terized by a lack of capacity for insight. someone who is malfunctioning neuro- can occur at the edges of sleep as the A third example spans the spectrum logically, but I always try. For example, dream state blurs with the waking state. of insight capacity. Some people with I offer OCD sufferers this analogy: If But I have never taken them seriously, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) you woke up one morning and smelled let alone claimed the existence of little are able to see that their thoughts, fears, something burning, first you’d go green men due to them. On the Aus- or behaviors—such as washing their around and check for fire. But if you tralian rules football field, I have had hands a hundred times a day—are ex- found none, you might ask your the experience of being punched and cessive, abnormal, or unjustified. It is spouse/family about it. If they said they then realizing I had dreamt every detail still hard for them to perform the “ex- smelled nothing, and you found that of the incident the night before. Of posure and response prevention” neces- the smell came and went randomly or course the punch actually affected me sary to control the disorder, but they are never varied at all, then you would be neurologically, so that the memory felt willing to try because they see the need. suspicious and maybe go see your doc- as though it was coming from a prior Others, though, especially those with tor. The doctor might run some tests dream. I did not actually have a dream body dysmorphic disorder (who may and finally tell you it’s a brain thing— that I would be punched during the think, for example, “my nose is huge your “burn smell” center is firing all the match. My point is, this experience did and red and ugly” when it is not), find time by itself. You’d have to learn to ig- not cause me to become a believer in it impossible to agree, even in theory, nore this “false alarm” and stop reacting dream precognition. that their thoughts are delusional or to it. The only difference between this I have insight into these bizarre ex- that plastic surgery is unnecessary. It is problem and your OCD is that it’s not periences. But some people don’t have these people with OCD who generally your “burn smell” center that’s out of insight into their bizarre experiences, form the core of untreatable cases. They control, it’s your “danger, watch out, I and perhaps they are even incapable of just don’t get it and avoid, refuse, misun- have to do this or something bad will obtaining it. What counts for them as derstand, or lapse in their “exposure and happen” center that’s out of control. evidence for a belief is completely dif- response prevention” treatment. Some OCD sufferers can identify with ferent from what counts as evidence for In these cases, insight is a hard thing this analogy, and their insight helps you and me. n

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The Right Stuff Will America’s (Foolish) Optimism Stare Down the Recession?

STEVEN DOLOFF

n a college English class I was teaching, filled mostly with necessarily a bad thing. African American and Hispanic students, a reading as- Roberto’s perspective reminded me of “the right stuff ” that Tom Wolfe ex- I signment prompted a discussion of ethnic minorities’ eco- plored in his 1979 book of the same nomic disadvantages in the United States. Assuming we were name. Wolfe was describing the essential all on the same page, as a “liberal” I couldn’t resist weighing fighter-pilot mentality of the early NASA Mercury Program astronauts of in and expressing my own professorial indignation on the the 1960s. They ignored the grim statis- subject as well. But one slightly older student (let’s call him tics on combat and experimental aviation Roberto), who until now had said little during the semester, and instead viewed mission failure (death) under any circumstances as the politely demurred. result of individual human error—avoid- “I don’t believe that,” he said. “I can’t able by those endowed with a sufficient believe that.” amount of a particular but somewhat in - “Why?” I asked. effable combination of steely confidence “I was in the Marines,” he answered. and initiative: “the right stuff.” “They told me about ‘the door.’ Do you This willful trumping of circum- know what I’m talking about?” stantial disadvantage by sheer faith in No one did, so he explained: “In the innate resourcefulness harkens back to Marines they taught me that no matter a more primal American ethos, that of what horrible situation I might find my- the early New England Puritans. self in, there will be a door that will let Amer ica’s first European settlers be - me out, and if I look for that door I will lieved that those among them predes- find it. If you tell me because I’m His- tined to be saved also had “the right panic I’m screwed, I can’t accept that. I [spiritual] stuff ” and were therefore di- Steven Doloff is professor in the De- vinely allowed to prosper in their new partment of Humanities and Media don’t care what statistics you give me. I Studies at the Pratt Institute in Brook- have a wife and a kid and a job, and this land. Those who didn’t have it failed. lyn, New York. His articles have ap- school is my door, and I believe we’re Simply put, personal courage bespoke peared in the New York Times, the going to be okay. No offense, but you’re salvation in this world and the next. Washington Post, the Boston Globe, not helping me by telling me I’m disad- It has often been noted how this same the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Los vantaged being Hispanic in America.” faith in self-demonstrating salvation has, Angeles Times, the Miami Herald, A lively class discussion ensued, and in a more secularized form, permeated the Chicago Sun-Times, Newsday, my own head spun. the cultural DNA of American society and the Chronicle of Higher Education. The facts of minority disadvantage ever since. Social commentators during notwithstanding, for the first time I re- the nation’s nineteenth-century industrial alized how an American mindset—per- boom idealized the innately proactive haps the American mindset—can place “self-made man” and stigmatized the itself in flat-out opposition to a logi- will-deficient “born loser.” If economic cally constraining reality, and that’s not socialism remains an anathema in Amer-

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ican public discourse today—at least as message has never been louder: if you be- an abstract proposition—it is because our lieve—really believe—you can (diet, heal, citizens just can’t grasp how personal self- profit, succeed, what ever), then you can! affirmation can be achieved through fed- But as Ehren reich has pointed out, the eral dispensation. (And also, why should essential cheat in this message is not in slackers be saved?) Similarly, if labor- the dreams themselves but in the seduc- union membership is at a record low, it’s tive ease, the implied “wishing makes it probably because American workers, so” means, by which these dreams may be deep down, still believe that individual realized. gumption and resourcefulness will get If we Americans seem so susceptible them what they need—or else they don’t to these profiteering pied pipers of con- deserve it. (And collective bargaining fidence, it may be because, ironically, seems like just more socialism for non- they really had us at “hello.” Despite all competitive losers.) the stark statistics, sober analysis, and

If we Americans seem so susceptible to these profiteering pied pipers of confidence, it may be because, ironically, they really had us at “hello.”

But who knows? Maybe this trait of smell-the-coffee reality dispensed before optimistic individualism is truly genetic. and after the recent financial crises, odds The great majority of Amer icans are are that we (or more likely our children) the descendents of—or are themselves— will again recklessly invest in pie-in-the- immigrants who believed enough in sky IPOs that pop like bubbles. We will themselves and their personal chances again, if permitted, take out mortgages of success to jump headlong into a we should rationally anticipate not being rough-and-tumble new world. So we are able to pay off. And count on it: we will literally a self-selected gene pool of again crash and burn, simply because we risk takers, hardwired to believe in don’t believe we will. Perhaps it is in the Roberto’s door. nature of how true liberty works. If we To be sure, it is no coincidence that, are really free in America, then we must as social critic Barbara Ehrenreich has be free to be fools, too. We will pay for observed, Americans have also been ex- our mistakes (and yes, the burden will fall ploited since the mid-nineteenth century much more on some than others—we by a massive and massively profitable need to do something about that) and “positive thinking” industry. Today, de- then we will make more. spite the hard-nosed economic realists For better or for worse, there is piping in the media and genuine suffer- clearly some fundamental expression of ing caused by the recession, Americans American character in this disposition remain awash in the monetized opti- of perennial, reckless optimism. Not mism business. Whether fronted by sure? Answer me this: do you or don’t megastar self-help boosters like Oprah you, in your gut, expect America to Winfrey, alternative-medicine gurus like come out of this recession sooner rather Deepak Chopra, or corporate motiva- than later and (eventually) get to Mars? tional speakers like Tony Robbins, the I rest my case. n

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[REVIEWS

Fooling People for Money and Profit

GREG MARTINEZ

n recent years, the documentary film Igenre has blossomed, finding in creased Abel Raises Cain audiences and a wider distribution Directed by Jenny Abel and Jeff Hockett. through the DVD format. Recently two Abel Raises Cain, LLC, 2009. DVD. small, independent productions linked by subject matter have been re leased: portraits of prominent twentieth-century hoaxers Alan Abel and Gray Barker. Abel Raises Cain is a jolly, affectionate Shades of Gray portrait by Jenny Abel of her father, Alan Directed by Bob Wilkinson. Abel, a puckish gadfly who has tor- Seminal Films, 2010. DVD. mented the mass media since the 1950s with a series of well-planned hoaxes. The film depicts him as currently down on his luck and living in the basement apart- ment of a friend’s home in Connecticut, with his belongings and archives in stor- age. The documentary traces his peri- The Society for Indecency to Naked tors of the Saturday Evening Post angrily patetic rise from Ohio State University Animals (SINA), which broadly paro- rejected it, unable to discern its satire. As graduate and percussionist with the died the prudishness of contemporary a lark, Abel transformed the piece into a Glenn Miller band during World War II sexual morality. It was written as a plan series of press releases that garnered na- to an accidental beginning as a profes- to clothe naked animals, protecting chil- tional media attention. As interest rose, sional hoaxer. dren from such an indecent sight (one he persuaded his friend Buck Henry, In 1959 Abel wrote a satirical story slogan was “A nude horse is a rude then an unknown actor, to pose as the about an imaginary organization called horse”), with such subtlety that the edi- group’s president, G. Clifford Prout, turning their public appearances into a cross between Swiftian satire and performance art. With the support of his Abel began a career of fooling wife Jeanne and Henry’s considerable improvisational skills, the farce was reporters, talk-show hosts, and maintained until a Time magazine article in 1963 exposed the hoax. But Abel’s other members of the media with a future path was fixed. Abel began a career of fooling re- series of sturdily constructed and porters, talk-show hosts, and other members of the media with a series of sturdily just-plausible-enough stunts. constructed and just-plausible-enough stunts that exposed the truth behind television and radio’s need for lively narra- tives and sensation (or as he puts it in the

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[NEW BOOKS

film, “perversions and calamities”) at the eth century. Stories of the Flatwoods ENCYCLOPEDIA OF DUBIOUS ARCHAEOLOGY: From Atlantis to the Walam Olum. Kenneth L. expense of actual reporting and research. Monster, the Mothman, and the Silver Feder. Greenwood, Santa Barbara, California. Booking agents for evening newscasts Bridge Col lapse all originated practically 2010. 293 pp. Hardcover, and afternoon chat shows were all too in his backyard, and he peddled those $85. Encyclopedia of Dubi- ous Archaeology is a ready to suspend their skepticism and tales to an eager and credulous mob of handy, welcome, and au- good judgment to book guests who believers. But his most significant con- thoritative yet highly read- were sure to inflame their audiences tribution to the field was his develop- able short encyclopedia with safe, pointless outrage over such giving the scientific view- ment of the “Men in Black” myth in his point on scores of contro- non-controversies as a phony group 1956 book They Knew Too Much about versial topics and claims that appeal to that was against breastfeeding (because popular audiences about the human past. Flying Saucers. it was borderline incestuous). In an- Feder is professor of anthropology at Central The film plays out in a series of acts; other hoax, Abel, calling himself Omar, Connecticut State College, author of Frauds, the first reviews Barker’s career as a Myths, and Mysteries (also newly out in a promoted the fake “Omar’s School for 2010 edition), and a CSI fellow and SI con- saucerian (a turn of phrase that eventu- Beggars”—which taught effective ways sulting editor. He has a knack for writing suc- to beg for money—on Tom Snyder’s ally provided the name for his self-pub- cinctly and with a light—even personal— lished magazine), then takes away the touch about these supposed mysteries. NBC show Tomorrow and Mike Dou- He always provides short but nuanced as- glas’s syndicated talk show. mask of entertainer to scrutinize him as sessments and appropriate published scien- Abel was able to sustain these and a person. Barker was a member of an ex- tific information that places these topics into tended family and a citizen in a rural proper context. Most entries run no more many other hoaxes for decades, but the than a page or two, so it is easy to skip advent of the Internet, cable television, town (he earned his living as a film dis- around to topics of personal interest: African and the twenty-four-hour news cycle tributor to drive-ins and small-town Inspiration of the Olmec, Atlantis, Ancient has diminished his ability to pull these theaters). He was also a deeply closeted American magazine, Edgar Cayce, Chinese Discovery of America, Crystal Skulls, Barry off as successfully as he once did. Abel’s homosexual, and his friends and col- Fell, Graham Hancock, Lost Civilizations, clever and witty voice has been drowned leagues eventually began to speculate Mars Face, Nazca, Nazi Archaeology, Noah’s out by a cacophony of angrier and less about how his time in the closet affected Ark, Piri Ries Map, Shroud of Turin, Sandia Cave, Vinland Map, and Erich Von Daniken, to coherent voices, though other media him and influenced his career as a hoaxer name just a few. —K.F. hoaxers have emerged (see, for example, and a fabulist. Barker died at age fifty- the 2003 documentary The Yes Men). nine from multiple-organ failure (his IMPLAUSIBLE BELIEFS IN THE BIBLE, ASTROLOGY, AND UFOS. Allan Mazur. Transac- * * * friend James Moseley speculates that it tion Press, New Jersey, 2009. 246 pp. Hard- was probably due to AIDS, but they did- cover, $34.95. Allan Gray Barker, a ﬁgure familiar to many n’t know what AIDS was at the time). It Mazur, professor of readers of this magazine, is the subject of public affairs at the seems now, more than twenty-five years Shades of Gray, a feature-length proﬁle of Maxwell School of Syra- after his death, that much of his life was cuse Uni versity, offers Barker’s extensive career in the UFO a hoax. an explanation of why field as a promoter and hoaxer. As he otherwise intelligent, emerges in the sensitive hands of director educated people be- * * * lieve a variety of un- Bob Wilkinson, Barker’s a complex and Different in their approaches, these two likely claims. The book mostly focuses sad figure who cheerfully (and perhaps a on—as the title suggests—beliefs about the bit cynically) ex ploited the gullibility of films are similar in their carefulness and Bible, astrology, and UFOs, but Mazur covers the UFO crowd from the 1950s through craft. They both thoughtfully present many subjects, including deceased Harvard UFO-abductee believer Dr. John Mack and the 1970s. rounded and absorbing portraits of peo- suicide cults such as Heaven’s Gate and the Born in 1925 in Riffle, West Vir ginia, ple whose chief claim to fame is their Peoples Temple. Mazur’s discussion of the Barker moved from obscurity into skill at lying to us. These films give us mass media’s handling of alien-abduction stories is particularly insightful. Part 4 of this slightly less obscure notoriety as the some insight into the restlessness at the book is perhaps the most valuable for its most industrious of the UFO-craze pro- heart of such hoaxers, but the sobering general discussion of the ways in which peo- moters of the 1950s. Attaching himself aspect of these movies is how eager people develop and sustain irrational beliefs in to a succession of “contactees,” Barker the face of disconfirming evidence. Overall, ple are to consume lies—and still want this is an interesting contribution to the dis- eventually worked himself into promi- more. n cussion about the psychological and social nence with his energetic (and mostly reasons why people adopt, and maintain, im- false) promotion of some of the most Greg Martinez lives and writes in Gaines ville, plausible beliefs. —B.R. notable saucer myths of the late twenti- Florida. E-mail: [email protected].

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NOSTRADAMUS, BIBLIOMANCER: The Man, the Myth, the Truth. Peter Lemesurier. New Page Books, Pompton Plains, New Jersey, 2010. Challenging the Presumed 288 pp. Softcover, $18.99. At first glance, this new book about Nostradamus appears Dominance of the Brain to be just more New Age PETER LAMAL filler, another book churned out amid a sea of similar titles on alternative medicine, quantum consciousness, “new” information about the Roswell crash, ebecca Jordan-Young sets out to ex- Brainstorm: The Flaws in the and so on. For a man who hasn’t written any- Ramine the widely accepted answers to Science of Sex Differences thing in well over 400 years, Nostradamus’s questions about the nature and causes of works and biographies show no signs of By Rebecca M. Jordan-Young. differences between men and women. In slowing down. However, this title merits at- Harvard University Press, tention for several reasons. First, Lemesurier Brainstorm: The Flaws in the Science of Sex Cambridge, Mass., 2010. (a former Cambridge linguist and author of she questions “what we ‘know’ Differences, ISBN: 978-0674057302. nearly a dozen books on the French seer) about male and female brains, or gay and takes a refreshingly skeptical view of Nos- 408 pp. Hardcover, $35. tradamus: After reexamining the original straight brains” (p. ix). She asks whether sources and looking at the latest research, putative brain differences are the cause of Lemesurier concludes that Nostra damus male-female dissimilarities in behavior, was neither a doctor nor an astrologer, nor ability, spatial relations, math aptitude, even (by his own admission) a prophet. He personality, and desires—or the effect of merely believed that history repeats itself, such dissimilarities. tendency to display nurturing be haviors, thus he projected known past events into the Jordan-Young is particularly interested and sexual orientation. The core of the future. Second, Lemesurier debunks many of in research concerning the effects of pre- program, however, is the development of the modern myths about Nostra damus, such sexuality. as his prediction of the World Trade Center at- natal hormones, about which there is a tacks. The book also includes translations of widely shared presumption that they cause The hypothesis underlying brain or- all the major prophecies and comes with a CD sex-typed predispositions. She uses the ganization studies has two main tenets: containing images of Nostradamus’s original term “brain organization research” to refer 1) male-typical sexual orientation and prophecies published between 1555 and 1668. Overall, it is a recommended addition to this field. According to brain organiza- gender identity correlates with other to the skeptic’s library. —B.R. tion theory, males and females have differ- male-typical physical or psychological ent brains because of early exposure to sex traits (likewise for female-typical sexual SLEIGHTS OF MIND: What the Neuroscience hormones. The process is also said to be orientation and gender identity); 2) of Magic Reveals About Our Everyday Deceptions. Stephen L. Macknik and Susana responsible for within-sex differences in physical and psychological traits are cor- Martinez-Conde, with sexual orientation: thus “gay brains” are related because both are in fluenced by Sandra Blakeslee. Henry different from “straight brains.” hormones during the critical—primarily Holt, New York, 2010. But what has been lacking in this field prenatal—period of development. 304 pp. Hard cover, $26. The authors, both neuro- is a comprehensive synthesis of the stud- In a chapter devoted to analyzing scientists, say this is the ies that underpin brain organization the- brain organization studies, Jordan- first book ever written on ory. Each study of how prenatal hormones Young writes that as sexuality research the neuroscience of becomes more sophisticated, human sex- magic—or, if you will, supposedly organize the human brain is a neuromagic. In this book, quasi-experiment rather than a proper, uality seems to look more complicated. written with veteran New York Times science controlled experiment. Be cause of this, a Research on sexuality involves the meas- correspondent Sandra Blakeslee, Macknik and meta-analysis of the studies, which in- urement of very complex phenomena, Martinez-Conde use neuroscience to explain at the fundamental level why we are so thor- volves pooling their data, is not possible. yet key researchers assured Jordan-Young oughly vulnerable to sleights of mind and how So Jordan-Young instead conducts a syn- that the constructs that are the focus of deception is part and parcel of being human. thesis of the different studies: each is their work are “common sense.” There- The authors are both directors of labs at the placed within the overall body of studies fore, measures for most traits associated Barrow Neurological Institute in Phoenix, Ari- zona, and regular contributors to the Scientific by mapping its structure to see how well with sexuality have not been seriously American family of publications (a summer it fits. debated by brain organization re- 2010 special-edition issue of Scientific Ameri- Brain organization theory is not just searchers. A close look at such measures can Mind was devoted entirely to their articles about the behavior involved in reproduc- is needed. If, for example, the definition on illusions). For this book, they worked closely with famous magicians and skeptics— tion or courting. It is said to explain a of “homosexuality” in one study is quite including James Randi, who endorsed their very wide range of differences related to different from the definition of “homo- gender and sexuality, including verbal sexuality”in another study, two conclu-

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sions are possible: that “homosexuality” The chapter on sex-typed interests project; Penn and Teller; Mac King; Johnny is not an obvious concept or that studies describes a view that is compatible with Thompson; and others. Chapters are devoted using different definitions of homosexu- behaviorism. Initial propensities are re- to such topics as visual illusions and magic, ality cannot be seen as though they are inforced through social learning, and the secret of the bending spoon, cognitive illusions, multisensory illusions, memory illu- dealing with the same phenomenon. The “gender-bifurcated reinforcement in sions, and expectations and meanings in the two studies are asymmet- turn amplifies the original [sex-typed] assumptions—and how magicians employ rical. Jordan-Young lists three questions differences” (201). these things to deceive us. All the chapters are that require affirmative answers for sym- relevant to science and skepticism, but a par- The chapter titled “Taking Context ticularly pertinent one for skeptics deals with il- metry to be present. At the same time, Seriously” considers some key aspects lusory correlations, superstition, hypnosis, definitions do not necessarily need to be that are excluded from brain organiza- and flim-flam. Magic tricks work, Macknik and exactly the same across studies, be cause a Martinez-Conde note, because humans have a tion research. Neglected is well-estab- strong relationship between influences hardwired process of awareness and under- lished evidence that the brain and the standing that is hackable; magicians do the and outcomes can withstand minor defi- neuro endocrine system are not the foun- hacking. The value of such understanding goes nitional differences. beyond scientific curiosity. It helps us see how How have brain organization re - dations that give rise to behavior and the same cognitive tricks are at work in adver- searchers come up with their definitions cognition. tising strategy, business negotiations, and in- terpersonal relations. —K.F. and measures of masculine and feminine In the concluding chapter, “Trading sexuality? Jordan-Young de scribes the Essence for Potential,” Jordan-Young TALES OF KENTUCKY GHOSTS. William Lyn- shifts in definitions from the late 1960s says that hormones do affect develop- wood Montell. University Press of Kentucky, ment. There are differences, on average, Lexington, 2010. 224 pp. Hardcover, $24.95. by focusing on feminine sexuality be- Montell, a professor cause of the significant broadening of its between males and females in a variety emeritus of folk stud- definition. In recent brain organization of characteristics. The problem is that ies at Western Ken- studies, females who have high libidos, brain organization theory attributes a tucky University, collected more than multiple partners, and frequent sexual false specificity and permanence to early 270 stories from all encounters are viewed as exhibiting nor- hormone effects, positing a demonstra- around Kentucky. His mal female sexuality. In the past, each bly false inevitability and uniformity to informants run the one of these characteristics was inter- gamut from college sex differences. students to attorneys, preted as solely part of masculine sexu- This book is thick with information. and homemakers to professors. The tales are ality. Surpris ingly, this change has gone Area after area is cited in which there are arranged by theme, and chapters include unnoticed, which is an example of how “Cemetery Ghosts,” “Civil War Ghosts,” “Head- studies of particular hypotheses (e.g., cor- brain organization scientists’ “cavalier less Ghosts,” and “Animal Ghosts and Animal relation of handedness with sexual orien- Tales.” Though Montell takes a less-than- approach to definitions of their key vari- tation) that report conflicting re sults. skeptical view of ghosts (“Many re puted ables has led them to be conceptually mysteries and occurrences cannot be sloppy, and the result is devastating for Furthermore, many studies de scribed in explained away by scientific means, even the existing network of evidence about the book have not been replicated. Jordan- in today’s advanced world of technology,” Young’s work is a welcome antidote to the he avers in the introduction), this is under- brain organization” (143). Also, sexual standable—a folklorist’s job is to collect orientation is notoriously difficult to de- current popularity of the assumption that stories and oral traditions, not pass judgment fine, and brain organization research (à la Steven Pinker) brain structure and on whether they are true or not. An interest- function are the determinants of human ing collection of ghost stories, this book is about it is marked by contradictions. especially useful for folklorists and those Scientists’ very different ways of meas- behavior. seeking to understand social beliefs about uring homosexuality have produced a There is significantly more informa- ghosts. —B.R. network of studies that seem to be con - tion in Brainstorm than I have covered in THE UNIVERSE: Order without Design. Carlos I. vincing and mutually supportive, but they this review. Some readers may want to Calle. Prometheus Books, Amherst, New York, are actually fundamentally at odds. skip some of the many chapter notes, 2009. 304 pp. Hardcover, With respect to sexual orientation, quite a few of which are lengthy. But this $27.98. Calle, author of Jordan-Young addresses three measure- Coffee with Einstein and a is an important book. Read it. n laboratory director and ment issues: sexual orientation, framing, senior research physicist and quantifying orientation. The conclu- Peter Lamal is emeritus professor in the Psy - at the NASA Kennedy sion she draws from her assessments is chology Department of the University of North Space Flight Center, takes that the pattern of research findings in- us on an excursion Carolina–Charlotte. He is a fellow of the Division through the frontiers of dicates that brain organization theory is of Behavior Analysis of the American Psycho - modern cosmology— where scientific and not a good explanation for human sexual logical Association and a member of the Asso - philosophical questions about origins are being orientation. ciation for Behavior Analysis International. explored, including the very human-centered

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[INBOX

question of whether the universe is de- James Randi makes the com- signed for life. New models and scientific ment that being atheist him- theories are taking us beyond the mo- self, he was surprised that ment of the Big Bang. We might be a Gardner was a deist. I am not pocket universe among a large number of at all surprised that a leading other pocket universes that have been skeptic might not be an athe- coming into existence and evolving for an ist. My Oxford English Dic- eternity, a cycle in an infinite series of cy- tionary (short version) defines cles, or an observer-selected universe without an origin in real time. All three an atheist as one who disbe- possibilities give us a universe without an lieves or denies the existence origin: one in which nothing needs to be of God or gods. The terms set in motion. All three models make disbelieve and deny are not the testable predictions, so at some point same. I can see the logic of a new and better experiments and obser- person saying he sees no evi- vations may allow us to better choose dence for the existence of a among them. —K.F. higher power and therefore UNSCIENTIFIC AMERICA: How Scientific disbelieves its existence, but to Illiteracy Threatens Our Future. Re- deny its existence—to seek to vised and with a new intro duction. Chris explain that there is no higher Mooney and Sheril power—is as foolhardy as to Kirschenbaum. believe on shaky evidence that Basic Books, New there is one. Both are leaps of York, 2010. 209 pp. faith. Softcover, $15. This A higher power may have book is a lively and important explo- created everything and ar - ration of the dis- ranged for evolution to occur, turbing breakdown perhaps giving a little push of relations be- over the missing link. A tween the world of American science higher power may or may not and the U.S. public. Chris Mooney, a jour- In Praise of deputy editor of the American have an interest in our day- nalist specializing in issues at the inter- Mathematics Society, wrote to-day affairs; it may or may section of science and society (and a Martin Gardner that Gardner “opened the eyes not interact with us or the SKEPTICAL NQUIRER I contributing editor), and of the general public to the Sheril Kirschenbaum, a marine biologist I would like to add my voice natural events of the earth and former White House science fellow, to the chorus of others prais- beauty and fascination of (storms, earthquakes, etc.). report on the breaks in the relationship ing the late, great Martin mathematics and inspired Perhaps Martin Gardner between science and the public and call Gardner (“Martin Gardner, many to go on to make the was again ahead of us all in on the scientific community to much 1914–2010: A Tribute and subject their life’s work.” In- realizing that his personal more actively engage the public in help- Celebration,” SI, deed, several famous concepts comfort was about the best ing to repair the damaged bonds. This September/October 2010). He in math were first brought to he could do in answering new and revised paperback edition finds world attention through the question of whether their original concerns “confirmed by was always extremely kind to me as we chatted by mail over Gardner’s works before they God exists. new data as well as more recent appeared in other publications. events.” Now, it seems, scientists must the years, and he provided Each year, as I begin to Ken McCaffrey take steps to protect themselves from jacket blurbs for a majority of Brattleboro, Vermont political attacks (such as the so-called my forty-five books. I dedi- write my next popular mathematics book, I gaze at my and now repudiated “Climategate”) that cated my latest book, The bookshelves—filled with seek to smear the reputation of science. Math Book, to him, and not Stem-cell research and vaccinations are long before he died he told me books by Martin Gardner— Gardner other areas in which the attacks have he was honored that I had in- and ask myself, “What has on Swedenborg worsened. The authors call on scientists Martin not already done? cluded his Scientific American to deepen their sensitivity to how the What hasn’t he done?” Yes, “Mathematical Games” col- Regarding Martin Gardner’s public thinks and responds on impor- Gardner is my hero and my tant issues (such as religion). They also umn as one of the 250 great last “Notes of a Fringe inspiration, and his articles, point out some hopeful signs that at milestones in mathematics. Watcher” column on Dr. Oz’s books, and kind and humble least in some quarters (e.g., Hollywood) The authors of Winning in fatu ation with Swedish spir- approach to life will leave a the problem of an unscientific America Ways for Your Mathematical itualist Emanuel Swedenborg mark upon the world forever. may be somewhat on the mend. —K.F. Plays wrote that Martin Gard- (“Swedenborg and Dr. Oz,” ner “brought more mathemat- Clifford A. Pickover —Kendrick Frazier and Benjamin Radford SI, September/October 2010), ics to more millions than Yorktown Heights, it may please the readers of SI anyone else.” Allyn Jackson, New York to know that Swedenborg’s

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

influence in Sweden came to an A description of Gastaut- nosed. In the intervening thor continues with, “We need end as early as 1790. Geschwind syndrome (which twenty-two years, he has had to better understand the athero- After the death of Sweden- includes hyperreligiosity and one mild heart attack (about sclerotic process and then inter- borg in London in 1772, his hypergraphia) can be found in six years ago), which he recov- vene to fix it.” teachings attracted quite a de- M.R. Trimble’s The Soul in the ered from. He also takes med- Diabetes and smoking are voted and influential Swedish Brain ( Johns Hopkins Univer- ication for his diabetes. estimated by the American following, embodied in the so- sity Press, 2007). Nevertheless, he lives inde- Heart Association to increase called Exegetial and Philan- I wonder if Dr. Oz has ever pendently in a studio apart- the risk of heart attack and thropical Society. Mesmerism, commented on this possibility. ment in New York City. He is stroke by two to four times. the fashionable nonsense of a lifelong atheist, so he does Just as we cannot medically John T. Whitney the day, was soon employed by not attribute his continued ex- conquer cancer without elimi- Holden, Maine the society for its spiritualistic istence to prayer or miracles. nating our bad habits, environ- means. It was suggested that He certainly does not distrust mental pollution, and genetic the somnambulic trance was a doctors or medical science; he predisposition, it seems un- window to the worlds and Treating and Preventing regularly sees his doctors and likely that a better understand- spirit realms described by Swe- Heart Disease follows their advice—except ing of plaque buildup will help denborg. for their advice to have open- fight heart disease if people However, in defense of the I read with great interest Dr. heart surgery. don’t stop overeating, smoking, ideals of the Enlightenment, Reynold Spector’s article assert- I am very grateful for Dr. or being lazy and complacent. poet and man of letters Johan ing that coronary artery bypass Spector’s article, which comes The bottom line: If there Henrik Kellgren—along with grafts are often overused to treat as a type of epiphany answer- weren’t so many smokers (esti- his friend Nils von Rosen- coronary artery disease, when ing how my father can still be mated at over 50 million peo- stein—formed the Pro Sensu medication and risk-factor alive twenty-two years after he ple), overeaters (one in four, Communi society in 1787 and modification (diet, exercise, was told that he needed a which translates to about 80 launched what was the most control of weight and blood triple bypass to save his life. million people), and people who successful Swedish skeptic pressure) are, in many cases, just While SKEPTICAL INQUIRER sit in front of a TV, computer, or campaign ever. The society as efficacious (“A Skeptic’s View has typically focused on de- cell phone device for hours and never had more than those of Prevention and Treatment of bunking claims of so-called hours a day, there would be little two members, but especially Heart Disease and Stroke,” SI, “alternative” medicine, Dr. need to expend enormous Kellgren used his wit and September/October 2010). At Spector demonstrates that amounts of energy, money, and clever rhetoric to fend off the age sixty, my father started to conventional medical practice resources on trying to keep Sweden borgians, Mesmerism, suffer from angina and was told also needs a skeptical eye at these people alive. Exercising on and mysticism in general in a that a triple-bypass operation times, especially when there a regular basis, playing with fierce debate in the newspaper was necessary to save his life. are financial incentives for per- your kids, and doing mindful Stockholms-Posten. Finally, the He had no previous major med- forming a major operation things seem to escape a signifi- Exegetial and Philanthropical ical problems, despite being that, in many cases, is unneces- cant portion of our population. Society was dissolved. overweight, and he had never sary. I look forward to future Dr. Spector aptly ends his paper Its members fled abroad or had a heart attack. He was pre- articles exploring how the by telling us that current drugs dissociated themselves from scribed several medications, profit motive can distort the and surgical intervention are Swedenborg’s teachings. which he was told would not objective analysis of the best not the final solution. But nei- Although Mesmerism re - keep him alive for more than six practices in medical care and ther is a better medicine. emerged in Sweden some dec - months if he did not have the treatment in the healthcare In my mind, educating our ades later, Sweden borgianism triple-bypass operation. But he field and in general. kids in the classroom, separate never did. Martin Gardner from their parental influence, just could not bring himself to Howard Druan would certainly have enjoyed a would be helpful—both for the have open-heart surgery. He Tucson, Arizona translation of the Pro Sensu continued taking the prescribed child and for the parents they Communi battle. heart medications, but he still come home to. Peter Illi refused to have the bypass Dr. Reynold Spector’s very good John Earl Eskilstuna, Sweden operation. overview of cardiovascular dis- Tunbridge, Vermont That was in 1988. He is ease left me wondering why now eighty-two years old and only in the last paragraph was I enjoyed the article by Martin still carefully follows his heart- there a marginal mention that I now have very healthy blood Gardner about Dr. Oz and medicine regimen daily. Peri- lifestyles need to be addressed. pressure after having hyperten- Swedenborg. SI readers may odically, his cardiologists have Dr. Spector noted that overeat- sion (184/84 blood pressure), a be interested to know that attempted in vain to convince ing and diabetes must be con- stroke, heart attacks, and con- Sweden borg likely had tempo- him to have the bypass surgery, sidered. The most intriguing gestive heart failure. From my ral lobe epilepsy, specifically so it is doubtful that his arte- thing is that there is no mention experience as a skeptic, I sug- Gastaut-Geschwind syndrome. rial blockages were misdiag- of cigarette smoking. The au- gest the following reordering of

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Dr. Spector’s table 3, “Risk- Chiropractors Examining Nostradamus The solemn temples, the Factor Modifica tion”: (1) Stop and Children great globe itself, smoking, stupid. (2) Work up In his excellent debunking of Yea all which it inherit shall dissolve, to walking thirty minutes a the validity of the prophecies Samuel Homola writes, “I have And, like this insubstantial day, sixty minutes if over- of Nostradamus (“Nostra - always suspected that chiro- pageant faded, leave weight. (3) Balance your diet. damus: A New Look at an not a rack behind: (4) If walking doesn’t curb dia- practors who use their finger- Old Seer,” SI, September/Oc- We are such stuff as betes, exercise reasonable tips to feel subluxations in a tober 2010), Joe Nickell inad- dreams are made on, blood sugar control. (5) Statins baby’s spine are either deceiv- vertently gives the old fraud And our little life is as a last or temporary method ing themselves or misinter- too much credit. Discussing rounded with a sleep. of control. (The Tempest, Act IV, preting what they feel” the quatrain that supposedly scene 1) This places the responsibil- (“Should Chiro practors Treat predicts the Great Fire of ity of getting healthy on the Children?” SI, Sep tember/Oct - London, Nickell writes that I submit that this passage person who is unhealthy and is closer to describing the Sep- ober 2010). one verse could be seen as ac- obeys the injunction, “First, do tember 11, 2001, terrorist at- May I humbly submit a curately predicting the fate of no harm.” Mary Tudor, whose “atrocities tacks than anything else that’s third interpretation? They’re resulted in her downfall.” But circulated as a so-called “pre- Max Dalrymple faking. Albuquerque, New Mexico Bloody Mary did not fall diction”—which, of course, At a “holistic health” fair, I down. There were plots against this isn’t either. I still think once submitted to a free chiro- her and bursts of opposition, that citing Shake speare is an practic examination. The chi- Many thanks and congratula- but she surmounted them all excellent way to show the ab- tions for Dr. Spector’s article ropractor, a woman in this and died as queen: still in surdity in saying that Nos- on heart disease and stroke in case, pressed on several places, power, still feared. So if that tradamus predicted the the September/October issue. working her way down my verse really was a prediction terrorist attacks. about Mary’s reign, it was far It is interesting that in the spine. John Derr off the mark. same issue Martin Gard ner “Does this hurt?” Tijeras, New Mexico mentions that Dr. Oz per- “No.” David Dvorkin forms more than 300 cardiac “Does this hurt?” www.dvorkin.com operations annually. Now the “No.” Joe Nickell’s column on Nos- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER should Finally, she dug her thumb tradamus re minded me of find a medical skeptic as very hard into my back. I said, The next time one of these Bertrand Russell’s dry com- equally informed and knowl- “Ow!” Nostradamus quotes, pseudo- ment about books concerning edgeable as Dr. Spector to quotes, or outright hoaxes ap- proph ecy. Russell said that present similar articles regard- She said, “Ah, that’s where pears, consider this selection predictions of events oc curring ing the colon and the prostate. your subluxation is.” from Shakespeare: prior to the book’s publication Jack D. Taylor Robert L. Wolke The cloud-capp’d towers, date showed remarkable accu- Flagstaff, Arizona Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania the gorgeous palaces, racy, but predictions of events

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

subsequent to the publication causes cancer is based on too date were less reliable. simplistic an assumption (News There’s much more and Comment, SI, Marvin Schissel September/October 2010). Mu- Roslyn Heights, New York Skep ti cal In quir er tations happen all the time. If all that was required to cause cancer content available on our website! was a mutation, we would all be Thinking about dead. Cancer requires not only Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: What We Read the mutation but an environment The Exhumation of Simón Bolívar that allows the mutated cell to Venezuelan skeptic Sami Rozenbaum examines Massimo Pigliucci rightly identi- become cancerous. Many biologi- the strange story of president Hugo Chávez’s fies some of the paradoxes in the cal processes depend upon trans- theory that the Internet is bad for port properties of membranes exhumation of—and alleged conversations the brain (“The Internet Is Really and conformal changes in mole- with—the bones of Simón Bolívar. Bad—Or Is It?” SI, Septem ber/ cules. These processes can be in- Oct ober 2010), but when he fluenced by lower energies then Will Africa Still Be Immersed in Deep proudly states that he now is those required for the breaking of Superstition by the Year 2030? reading three times as many chemical bonds. Although it is Barrett Brown examines a discussion in the books on his Kindle, I suspect hard to imagine that nature could journal Foreign Policy about the significance that he misses the more serious be so perverse as to have pro- and influence of the Internet. point behind the controversy. duced biological structures that Is the voracious consumption interact with cell phone radiation of information not so much bad in a manner that promotes the for one’s brain as it is bad for the growth of cancers, it is still an attainment of useful knowledge issue that cannot be dismissed and insight? More may simply be without a more careful analysis more, or it may turn out to be than that given by Park. less. When encountering Even more disturbing is thought-provoking material, con- Park’s dismissal of the Danish siderable amounts of time must epidemiological study as being be allowed for deep processing. worthless. The epidemiological This necessitates entering into a study does not require a full un- dialogue with the author, asking derstanding of the biological and For more online columns, features, and special content, relevant questions, conjuring physical mechanisms that cause visit www.csicop.org thought experiments from alter- cancer. This makes it insensitive native perspectives, assimilating to errors in the assumptions the material into one’s existing about the mechanisms, but it also system of ideas, and creatively ap- means that it is difficult to make [FEEDBACK plying it in one’s everyday life. the study a strict test of a particu- The letters column is a forum on In my critical-thinking lar mechanism. mat ters raised in previous classes, I caution my students not Frankly, if the epidemiological issues. Letters should be no to be mere sponges, acquiring results had indicated a link be- longer than 225 words. Due to tons of inert information at the tween cell phone use and cancer, the volume of letters we receive, expense of dynamic and transfer- I would be far more suspicious of not all can be published. Send able knowledge. To bring this to plasticizers or some other chemi- letters as e-mail text (not attach- ments) to letters@csicop. org. fruition, one must spend more cal component of the cell In the subject line, provide your time thinking about what one phone—or a lifestyle correla- reads than actually reading. surname and informative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones tion—than radiation. Regardless evolution art icle.” In clude your name and ad dress at the end of the letter. Gerald Christoff of the mechanism, a positive re- You may also mail your letter to the editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Flushing, New York sult would be important. The Albuquerque, NM 87122, or fax it to 505-828-2080. negative result that was obtained is far more welcome, and it indi- Cell Phones cates that if there are any rela- tionships, they are unlikely to and Radiation have major practical implications. Bob Park’s skepticism of the Robert Clear Cause Page: Committee for Skeptical Inquiry/SKEPTICAL INQUIRER magazine Fan Page: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER theory that cell phone radiation Berkeley, California

Skeptical Inquirer | January/ February 2011 65 SI Jan Feb 11 from home_SI new design masters 11/12/10 11:57 AM Page 66

[ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD

HIDDEN MESSAGES by Dave Thomas ASK THE OUTLAW SKEPTIC Where no question or answer is too stupid The following letters are a simple substitution cipher. If R stands for L, it will do so everywhere. Solution is by trial by Pablo DesOrmeaux and error. Hint: Look for patterns in words; for example, the scrambled phrase “JRXJ JRQ” might represent “THAT THE.” Dr. Outlaw, PUZZLE After suffering a sharp pain behind my eyeballs, I visited my doctor, who immediately diagnosed the problem. “XGFD GA E ICDEX XDEBNDC, LKX His treatment was to get plenty of rest and apply Head-On to my KHYWCXKHEXDOR GX MGOOA EOO GXA forehead twice a day. What is a “skeptoid” anyway? SKSGOA.” Forgot to Ask My Doctor —OWKGA NDBXWC LDCOGWT Dear Forgot, CLUE: R = Y A skeptoid is a mild, but sometimes painful, protuberance ANSWER KEY on the brain. Although a specific cause has remained elusive, As you decipher letters, keep track of them with the handy answer key below. If you've decided that R stands for L, simply write down an “L” above some scientists theorize that it’s triggered by a “skeptical or below the “R” in the alphabetized row below, just as you would for the cipher itself. This builds a handy, easy-to-use reference guide for you and strain in the brain.” In other words, overindulging in skepticism. will also reveal the "Super Secret Word,” a puzzle within a puzzle! Currently, there’s no real cure except time, although some A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z researchers are tirelessly testing a promising new product, PREVIOUS PUZZLE SOLUTION: “I DISTRUST THOSE PEOPLE WHO KNOW SO tentatively referred to as Preparation S. I suggest you follow WELL WHAT GOD WANTS THEM TO DO BECAUSE I NOTICE IT ALWAYS COINCIDES WITH THEIR OWN DESIRES.” your doctor’s advice (think of the Head-On as a “placebo”), — SUSAN B. ANTHONY SUPER-SECRET WORD: HYPOCRITE lay off any heavy, irritating doses of skepticism for a while, (Instructions: www.nmsr.org/secretword.htm) and avoid tight headgear.

Hidden Messages xkcd “Conspiracy Theories” Puzzle Contest Submit your solution by e-mail to [email protected] or via postal mail to: Benjamin Radford, The Last Laugh, P.O. Box 3016, Corrales, NM 87048. Winner will be chosen at random from the first three correct submis- sions received by both e-mail and postal mail.

This issue’s prize is a copy of the ﬁlm Dr. Dawn's American Spirit Summit, an indie mockumentary from Exspiro Productions (http://www.americanspiritsummit.com/). Randall Munroe, www.xkcd.com Randall Munroe,

66 Volume 35 Issue 1 | Skeptical Inquirer SI Jan Feb 11 FINAL_SI new design masters 11/17/10 3:05 PM Page 67

Scientific and Technical Consultants Gary Bauslaugh, Bryan Farha, I.W. Kelly, Daisie Radner, editor, Humanist Perspectives, prof. of behavioral studies in prof. of psychology, Univ. of Saskatch ewan, CENTERS FOR INQUIRY prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo www.centerforinquiry.net/about/centers Victoria, B.C., Canada education, Oklahoma City Univ. Canada Robert H. Romer, prof. of physics, Amherst Richard E. Berendzen, John F. Fischer, Richard H. Lange, College TRANSNATIONAL astronomer, Washington, D.C. forensic analyst, Orlando, FL M.D., Mohawk Valley Physician 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Health Plan, Schenectady, NY Karl Sabbagh, Martin Bridgstock, Eileen Gambrill, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England Tel.: (716) 636-4869 senior lecturer, School of Science, prof. of social welfare, Gerald A. Larue, AUSTIN Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia Univ. of California at Berkeley prof. of biblical history and Robert J. Samp, PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 archaeology, Univ. of So. California Richard Busch, Luis Alfonso Gámez, assistant prof. of education and Tel.: (512) 919-4115 magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA science journalist, Bilbao, Spain William M. London, medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison CHICAGO California State Univ., Los Angeles Shawn Carlson, Sylvio Garattini, Steven D. Schafersman, PO Box 7951, Chicago, IL 60680-7951 Society for Amateur Scientists, director, Mario Negri Pharma cology Rebecca Long, asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH Tel.: (312) 226-0420 East Greenwich, RI Institute, Milan, Italy nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia INDIANAPOLIS Chris Scott, Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 Roger B. Culver, Laurie Godfrey, statistician, London, England prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Thomas R. McDonough, Tel.: (317) 423-0710 lecturer in engineering, Caltech, and SETI Stuart D. Scott, Jr., MICHIGAN Felix Ares de Blas, Gerald Goldin, Coordinator of the Planetary Society associate prof. of anthropology, 3777 49th Street SE, Grand Rapids, MI 49512 prof. of computer science, mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ SUNY Buffalo Tel.: (616) 698-2342 Univ. of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain James E. McGaha, Donald Goldsmith, astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) Erwin M. Segal, NEW YORK CITY Sid Deutsch, astronomer; president, Interstellar Media PO Box 26241, Brooklyn, NY 11202 engineering consultant, Sarasota, FL Chris Mooney, prof. of psychology, SUNY Buffalo Alan Hale, Tel.: (347) 987-3739 journalist, author, Washington J. Dommanget, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Carla Selby, SAN FRANCISCO correspondent, SEED Magazine astronomer, Royale Observatory, Research, Alamogordo, NM anthropologist/archaeologist E-mail: [email protected] Brussels, Belgium Joel A. Moskowitz, Clyde F. Herreid, Steven N. Shore, TAMPA director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas Nahum J. Duker, prof. of biology, SUNY Buffalo prof. and chair, Dept. of Physics 5201 West Kennedy Blvd., Suite 124, Tampa, FL 33609 assistant prof. of pathology, Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Tel.: (813) 849-7571 Terence M. Hines, and Astronomy, Indiana Univ. South Bend Temple Univ. Matthew C. Nisbet, WASHINGTON, DC prof. of psychology, Waclaw Szybalski, assistant professor, School of 621 Pennsylvania Ave. SE, Washington, DC 20003 Taner Edis, Pace Univ., Pleasantville, NY professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ. Division of Science/Physics Communication, American Univ. Tel.: (202) 546-2330 Michael Hutchinson, of Wisconsin–Madison Truman State Univ. John W. Patterson, WEST author; SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Sarah G. Thomason, Barbara Eisenstadt, representative, Europe prof. of materials science and 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Hollywood, CA 90027 en gineering, Iowa State Univ. prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA Tel.: (323) 666-9797 psychologist, educator, clinician, Philip A. Ianna, East Greenbush, NY James R. Pomerantz, Tim Trachet, ARGENTINA assoc. prof. of astronomy, Av. Santa Fe 1145 - 2do piso, (C1059ABF) William Evans, Univ. of Virginia prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. journalist and science writer, honorary Buenos Aires, Argentina prof. of communication, Gary P. Posner, chairman of SKEPP, Belgium William Jarvis, Tel.: +54-11-4811-1858 Center for Creative Media MD, Tampa, FL David Willey, prof. of health promotion and public health, CHINA Loma Linda Univ., School of Public Health physics instructor, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA China Research Institute for Science Population, NO. 86, Xueyuan Nanlu Haidian Dist., Beijing, 100081 China Affiliated Organizations | United States Tel.: +86-10-62170515 ALABAMA D.C./MARYLAND MINNESOTA Association for Rational Thought (ART) EGYPT Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS, St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Psychic Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach, president. Tel: 44 Gol Gamal St., Agouza, Giza, Egypt Kimbrough. Tel.: 205-759-2624. 3550 Maryland, D.C., Virginia. D.W. “Chip” Teaching Investigating Community (513)-731-2774, e-mail: FRANCE Water melon Road, Apt. 28A, Northport, Denman. Tel.: 301-587-3827. e-mail: (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud, Minne sota. Jerry [email protected]. PO Box 12896, Dr. Henri Broch, Universite of Nice, Faculte des AL 35476 [email protected]. PO Box 8428, Silver Spring, Mertens. Tel.: 320-255-2138; e-mail: Cin cinnati, OH 45212. www.cincinnati Sciences, Parc Valrose, 06108, Nice cedex 2, MD 20907-8428 [email protected]. Jerry skeptics.org ARIZONA France Tel.: +33-492-07-63-12 http://www.ncas.org Mertens, Psychology Department, 720 Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James OREGON GERMANY 4th Ave. S, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Mc Gaha. E-mail:[email protected]. FLORIDA Oregonians for Science and Reason Cloud, MN 56301 Kirchgasse 4, 64380 Rossdorf, Germany 5100 N. Sabino Foot hills Dr., Tucson, AZ Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, (O4SR) Oregon. Jeanine DeNoma, presi- Tel.: +49-6154-695023 85715 Florida. Gary Posner, Executive Director. MISSOURI dent. Tel.: (541) 745-5026; e-mail: INDIA Tel.: 813-849-7571; e-mail: tbs@cfi- Skeptical Society of St. Louis (SSSL) [email protected]; 39105 Military Rd., Phoenix Skeptics, Phoenix, AZ. Michael A 60 Journalist colony, JubileeHills, florida.org; 5201 W. Kennedy Blvd., Suite St. Louis, Missouri. Michael Blanford, Monmouth, OR 97361. www.04SR.org Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, AZ Hyderabad-500033, India 124, Tampa, FL 33609. www.tam- President. E-mail: [email protected]. 85082 PENNSYLVANIA Tel.: +91-40-23540676 pabayskeptics.org 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 Philadelphia Association for Critical CALIFORNIA www.skepticalstl.org LONDON The James Randi Educational Think ing (PhACT), much of Pennsylvania. Sacramento Organization for Rational Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square, Foun dation. James Randi, Director. Tel: NEVADA Eric Krieg, Presi dent. Tel.: 215-885- Think ing (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Span- London WC1R 4RL, England (954)467-1112; e-mail [email protected]. Skeptics of Las Vegas, (SOLV) PO Box 2089; e-mail: [email protected]. genburg, co-foun der. Tel.: 916-978-0321; 201 S.E. 12th St. (E. Davie Blvd.), Fort 531323, Henderson, NV 89053-1323. By mail c/o Ray Haupt, 639 W. Ellet St., E-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 2215, Lauderdale, FL 33316-1815. E-mail: [email protected] Philadelphia PA 19119 NEPAL Carmichael, CA 95609-2215 Humanist Association of Nepal, www.randi.org www.skepticslv.org TENNESSEE http://home.comcast.net/~kitray2/site/ PO Box 5284, Kathmandu Nepal ILLINOIS NEW MEXICO Rationalists of East Tennessee, East Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San Francisco— Rational Examination Association New Mexicans for Science and Reason Ten nessee. Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: (865)- Tel.: +977-1-4413-345 Bay Area. Eugenie C. Scott, President. 1218 of Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. Bob (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, 982-8687; e-mail: [email protected]. NEW ZEALAND Miluia St., Berkeley, CA 94709. E-mail: Ladendorf, Chairman. Tel.: 217-546- President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; e-mail: 2123 Stony brook Rd., Louis ville, E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]. www.BASkeptics.org 3475; e-mail: [email protected]. PO nmsrdave @swcp.com. PO Box 1017, Per- TN 37777 NIGERIA Independent Investi gations Group (IIG), Box 20302, Springfield, IL 62708 alta, NM 87042. www.nmsr.org TEXAS PO Box 25269, Mapo, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria Center for In quiry–West, 4773 Holly wood www.reall.org NEW YORK North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Tel.: +234-2-2313699 Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90027. Tel.: 323- Chicago Skeptics Jennifer Newport, New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) metropol- Worth area, John Blanton, Secretary. ONTARIO 666-9797. www.iigwest.com contact person. E-mail: chicagoskep- itan NY area. Jeff Corey, President. 18 Tel.: (972)-306-3187; e-mail: 216 Beverley Street, Toronto, Ontario M5T 1Z3, Sacramento Skeptics Society, Sacramento. [email protected]. Woodland Street, Hunting ton, NY 11743, [email protected]. PO Box 111794, Canada. Tel.: (416) 971-5676 Terry Sandbek, Presi dent. 4300 Au burn www.chicagoskeptics.com Tel: (631) 427-7262; e-mail: Carrollton, TX 75011-1794. PERU Blvd. Suite 206, Sacramento CA 95841. [email protected]. www.nyask.com. www.ntskeptics.org KENTUCKY D. Casanova 430, Lima 14, Peru Tel.: 916 489-1774. E-mail: terry@sand- Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York VIRGINIA E-mail: [email protected] bek.com and Skep tics (KASES) Kentucky. 880 (ISUNY) Upper New York. Michael Sofka, 8 Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., POLAND San Diego Asso ciation for Rational Inquiry Albany Road, Lexing ton, KY 40502. Providence St., Albany, NY 12203 Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old Lokal Biurowy No. 8, 8 Sapiezynska Sr., (SDARI) President: Paul Wenger. Tel.: 858- Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., Norfolk, Contact Fred Bach at e-mail: fredw- Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) 00-215, Warsaw, Poland 292-5635. Program/general information VA 23529 [email protected]; www.kases.org; Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. Tel: ROMANIA 619-421-5844. www.sdari.org. or (859) 276-3343 (315) 446-3068; e-mail: info@cnyskep- WASHINGTON Fundatia Centrul pentru Constiinta Critica Postal ad dress: PO Box 623, La Jolla, CA LOUISIANA tics.org, cnyskeptics.org 201 Milnor Ave., Society for Sensible Explan ations, Tel.: (40)-(O)744-67-67-94 92038-0623 Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Syracuse, NY 13224 Western Washington. Tad Cook, Secre tary. E-mail: [email protected] COLORADO E-mail: [email protected]. PO Box 45792, Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR- OHIO RUSSIA The Denver Skeptics Meetup Group. Seattle, WA 98145-0792 US. PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. Tel.: Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin, 119899 Russia, Moscow, Elaine Gilman, President. Skype address: http://seattleskeptics.org 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, Baton (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, Vorobevy Gory, Moscow State Univ., elaine.gilman. 965 S. Miller Street, 302, Rouge, LA 70808 President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; e-mail: PUERTO RICO Lakewood, CO 80226. Philosophy Department MICHIGAN [email protected]. PO Box 282069, Sociedad De Escépticos de Puerto http://skeptics.meetup.com/131/ SENEGAL Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michi- Columbus, OH 43228 Rico, Luis R. Ramos, President. 2505 PO Box 15376, Dakar – Fann, Senegal CONNECTICUT Parque Terra Linda, Trujillo Alto, Puerto gan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland Tel.: +221-501-13-00 New England Skeptical Society (NESS) Rico 00976. Tel: 787-396-2395; e-mail: Tel.: 734-525-5731; e-mail: Skep- and counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942- New England. Steven Novella M.D., Presi- [email protected]; [email protected]. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. 5543; e-mail: [email protected]. PO dent. Tel.: 203-281-6277; e-mail: www.escepticor.com 103, West land, MI 48185-2366 Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 [email protected]. 64 Cobblestone Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Gary www.southshoreskeptics.org Dr., Hamden, CT 06518 Barker. Tel.: 517-799-4502; e-mail: bark- www.theness.com [email protected]. 3596 Butternut St., Sagi- naw, MI 48604

The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org