The Venezuela Crisis JCC: USA Hawaiʻi Pacific Model United Nations 2019
Aloha and welcome to PacMUN 2019!
Our names are Jackie Osaki and Matt Linker and we are excited to return as Secretary General for PacMUN 2019. Throughout our involvement with PacMUN over the past three years, we have seen this conference grow and flourish. We are happy to say that trend continues this year as we host the largest and most dynamic PacMUN so far, with a variety of General Assembly, Specialized, Crisis, and Joint Crisis committees that tackle some of the most complex and urgent issues that have faced our world.
My name is Jackie and I’m a recent graduate of Stanford University with a BS with Honors in Biology and a BA in Comparative Literature. I currently work for a management and technology consulting firm that specializes in media and entertainment. Throughout my Stanford career, I participated in Model UN as a delegate, vice-captain, and eventually team captain in my last two years. I love being able to bring realism and current issues to Model UN for students to begin thinking about how we can solve the most pressing issues facing society today.
My name is Matt and I’m a 2019 Stanford graduate in Computer Science, and now work in equity derivatives trading and structuring at a major financial services firm. I first participated in MUN early in my own high school career, before rediscovering it my sophomore year at Stanford, eventually serving as vice-captain, captain, and on the board of our MUN team’s parent organization, the Society for International Affairs at Stanford. To me, MUN represents a window into the true complexity of world affairs, and an excellent learning opportunity to understand why some challenges are more difficult to resolve than others.
While we are excited to bring what we believe to be the best PacMUN yet into fruition, we are most excited to see relationships continue to build this year. We strive to embody all of our core values, but it is truly special to see laulima, or collaboration, in action. We urge all delegates to keep laulima in mind to work together to innovate solutions and make new friends in the process. We hope this guide helps you jump start your research for this year’s PacMUN and we look forward to seeing you in November!
Sincerely,
Jackie Osaki and Matt Linker
2 Table of Contents
I. Letter From the Chair 2 II. Letter From the Crisis Director 3 III. Introduction to Committee 4 IV. History & Background Information 5-13 V. US Involvement & Key Issues 14-22 VI. Other Involved Nations 23-26 VII. Questions to Consider 27 VIII. Helpful Resources 28 IX. Character List 29 X. Technology & Award Policy 30 XI. Bibliography 31-36
3 Dear Delegates,
As the chair of the JCC: US committee, I would like to welcome you all to PacMUN 2019! My name is Yoo Ra Sung, and I am a freshman at Brandeis University, studying International & Global Studies, Politics, and Legal Studies. For the past 5 years, I have been heavily involved in Model UN in Hawaiʻi, participating in PacMUN as a delegate from 2015, helping to staff PacMUN since 2017, and most recently, serving as the Secretary General of the Hawai‘i Model UN League from 2018-2019. Because of my roots in Hawai‘i as well as PacMUN, I am excited to be returning home as a chair this year!
Between the complexities of Venezuela’s current political atmosphere and the tense international relationships it has with countries such as the US, this committee will face the challenging task of not only negotiating terms internally, but also representing the United States’ beliefs on the global stage. As advanced delegates, you will be required to think cooperatively and act diplomatically to address the ongoing Venezuelan crisis. In this process, I encourage all of you to remember that despite individual differences, you must work together, as the United States of America. In debate, I hope that all delegates will conduct themselves in an honest, open-minded, and productive manner, with the goal of furthering not just a personal agenda, but the entire committee’s progress as well.
I believe that Model UN is a unique activity which offers countless opportunities for both intellectual learning and personal growth. So, I hope that this conference will be a meaningful experience through which you can gain deeper insight into one of the world’s most pressing current issues as well as understand the difficulties of debating and discussing a controversial topic within an environment filled with varying perspectives.
Please feel free to reach out to me at any time via email [email protected] if you need help preparing for PacMUN, or if you have any questions at all. I look forward to meeting you all in November!
Regards, Yoo Ra
4 Dear Delegates,
My name is Isha Gonugunta and I am thrilled to be the JCC: USA crisis director for PacMUN 2019. I grew up in San Jose, California and I am currently a freshman at UCLA studying computer engineering. This will be my 5th year doing MUN and my 1st year directing. Through MUN, I was able to serve as a USG and later Secretary-General of SCVMUN, attend conferences in California, Hawai‘i, New York, and Rome, speak in the UN GA Hall, and meet people from all over the world. This will be my 4th PacMUN, as I have participated in the Senate, SC of Russia JCC, and Saudi Arabia JCC as a delegate in the past.
Model UN has provided me with the opportunity to approach international issues from various angles. While I have not always agreed with the policies of the countries and characters that I have represented, these experiences pushed me to broaden my outlook and develop a deeper understanding of conflicting viewpoints. Developing solutions in MUN is no simple task, as conflicting interests must often be appeased in order for a plan to be enacted successfully. This is one of the greatest challenges that you will all face as delegates, especially with this year’s topic.
The Venezuelan crisis is one that has vested interest from many countries, especially the United States. Thus, I urge delegates to collaborate within this committee to represent these interests and carefully consider the global impact when taking action on behalf of the US. The ability to interact with the delegates of the other JCC countries introduces another dimension to crisis, so delegates should keep in mind that every action they take will also impact the committees around them. I hope delegates will take advantage of these JCC features to create a global crisis experience.
Overall, I encourage you all to come into committee with an open mind and willingness to learn. Even the most experienced delegate has room to grow, so I hope you will take this conference as an opportunity to challenge yourselves to truly go beyond the surface of the issues at hand. I hope that you enjoy PacMUN 2019 and I look forward to working with all of you.
Sincerely, Isha
5 Introduction to Committee
At PacMUN 2019, the Joint Crisis Committees (JCC’s) will be focusing on the topic of “The Venezuela Crisis,” arguably the most severe economic crisis of the modern age, with far- reaching political and humanitarian impacts. The JCC universe this year is comprised of 4 committees representing the various governments of the United States, the Russian Federation, Colombia, and Cuba. Similar to a normal crisis committee, delegates in JCC’s will have the power to utilize crisis notes which can potentially impact the JCC: US committee, as well as any of the other adjoined committees. Delegates will also be challenged to deal with crises prepared by the Crisis Director and her staff, as well as any crises involving the US that arise from other JCC’s.
This committee will simulate the discussion and negotiation which occurs in the National Security Council of the United States of America. All delegates will be representing high-ranking government officials who have the power and influence to direct the US government in its endeavors to address the ongoing crisis in Venezuela. As your chair, I will take on the role of the current US President, Donald J. Trump, and it is the committee's job to advise me, as best as possible, on how to proceed. However, I, as Donald Trump, stress that I have reserved the right to exercise my executive power. Although I value all perspectives and opinions, in the case that I sense any disloyalty to the nation, I may retract your privilege of partaking in the discussion.
Because the crisis in Venezuela is an ongoing, present-day issue, I encourage all delegates to take advantage of news articles for the most current, up-to-date information on the situation in Venezuela and the US’s position. Besides thoroughly reading this background guide, delegates should conduct their own research on their roles and specific policies and goals they plan to pursue. To aid you in this process, I have created a “Helpful Resources” section with articles and videos I suggest you utilize.
Although PacMUN is held in Hawaiʻi, I understand that all of you come from varying academic and cultural backgrounds, and that Model UN can be different in every school, state, and country. If any part of the aforementioned introduction is confusing, or the way this committee is run is unfamiliar to you, please reach out to me before or during the conference, and I will do whatever I can to help you. I’d also like to remind all delegates to understand each other’s personal differences, and maintain a sense of respect for all of your fellow delegates throughout the weekend. If I hear of any disrespectful behavior or dialogue during the conference, I will deal with the situation as necessary, in order to maintain a safe learning environment for all delegates.
6 History & Background Information
Historical Basis Between 1998 and 2013, President Hugo Chavez and the United Socialist Party presided over Venezuelan politics.1 A series of economic policies, including price controls, social programs, and expanded public services, centralized Chavez’ political power and increased the role of the government in the economy.2 Although poverty rates decreased, while public health, literacy rates, and quality of life all improved, these achievements changed course in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.3 Through the early 2010s, poverty rates increased once again and past public spending would prove unsustainable.4
The Economic Crisis In late 2014, a year after the death of President Chavez, oil prices collapsed and set Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy on a downward spiral. Over the course of twelve months, GDP shrunk by nearly 6% and inflation rose dramatically.5 Without oil revenue, and with little saved from an oil boom in the early 2000s, President Maduro closed off import markets and used national reserves to cover foreign debt payments.6 Without imports, food and medicine shortages began to set in.7 Local producers struggled to meet demand due to decades of underdevelopment and new government policies that slashed farmers’ profit margins, prevented imports of farming materials and equipment, and mismanaged property distribution.8 Government currency controls, intended to prevent an outward flow of capital, resulted in an inflationary conflict with the currency black market. Even though Venezuela possesses the largest known oil reserves in the world, oil production continued to decrease in response to weak revenues, decreased investment and weakened trade ties.9 Inflation soon turned to hyperinflation; by the end of 2018, prices of common goods were doubling every 19 days.10 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates
1 “Venezuela Crisis in 300 Words,” BBC News, May 1, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america- 48121148 2 Charlie Devereux and Raymond Colitt, "Venezuelans' Quality of Life Improved in UN Index Under Chavez," Bloomberg L.P. March 9, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20141107050220/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/venezuelans-quality- of-life-improved-in-un-index-under-chavez.html 3 Juan Cristóbal Nagel, "Poverty Shoots Up in Venezuela,” Foreign Policy. June 4, 2014. 4 “Venezuela Crisis in 300 Words,” BBC News, May 1, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america- 48121148 5 Dominic Bailey et al., “Venezuela: All you need to know about the crisis in nine charts,” BBC News, February 4, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668 6 Mercy Benzaquen, “How food in Venezuela went from subsidized to scarce,” The New York Times, July 16, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/16/world/americas/venezuela-shortages.html 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Kathryn Reid, “Venezuela Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help,” World Vision, April 30, 2019. https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/venezuela-crisis-facts 10 Dominic Bailey et al., “Venezuela: All you need to know about the crisis in nine charts,” BBC News, February 4, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668
7 that by the end of 2019, at current rates, Venezuela’s inflation rate will hit an incomparable 10 million percent.11
The Political Crisis As economic conditions worsened, the opposition party to President Maduro garnered popular support around the country and won a two-thirds supermajority in the 2015 national assembly elections.12 In what critics called a protective response, Maduro appointed a number of his associates to the Supreme Court. These justices blocked a handful of opposition lawmakers from assuming assembly positions and banned an opposition leader from running in 2017.13 Mass demonstrations broke out against the court’s decision that lasted for months and left 66 protestors dead.14 A new, rival branch of government endorsed by Maduro, the “Constituent Assembly,” was elected that Spring and granted powers superseding those of the National Assembly.15 The U.S., Canada, and a number of neighboring Latin American countries did not recognize the legislative body as legitimate due to suspicions of a rigged election.16 The U.S. labeled the Venezuelan presidential elections the following year as similarly illegitimate and undemocratic before they had even taken place; despite these accusations of foul play, Maduro was reelected on May 20, 2018.17 Protests broke out once again just days after Maduro’s January 2019 inauguration. Protestors called attention to his shocking 68% victory margin as fraudulent and decried the
11 Reid, “Venezuela Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help.” 12 Rahima Nasa, “Timeline: How the Crisis in Venezuela Unfolded,” PBS News, February 22, 2019. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/timeline-how-the-crisis-in-venezuela-unfolded/ 13 Ibid. 14 Ibid. 15 “Venezuela Crisis in 300 Words,” BBC News. 16 Nasa, “Timeline: How the Crisis in Venezuela Unfolded.” 17 Ibid.
8 deteriorating economic situation.18 Juan Guiado, President of the National Assembly and popular opposition leader, declared himself president according to emergency constitutional powers.19 Following the United State’s decision to acknowledge Guiado as the legitimate Venezuelan leader, Maduro declared an end to diplomatic relations and blocked American humanitarian aid from crossing into Venezuela on February 8.20 These developments incited Maduro to close the Venezuelan-Brazilian border, which in turn led to violent skirmishes and civilian deaths. On February 21, American President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to the Venezuelan military; reject Maduro and accept Guiado as president, or “lose everything.”21 On April 30, 2019, Mr. Guiado asked security forces to aid him in the “final phase” required to remove Maduro from power, which Maduro’s government labeled “an attempted coup.”22 As of July 2019, however, the Venezuelan military has not slackened its support for Maduro and the political stand-off persists.
Key Players
The Maduro Administration Led by Nicolas Maduro, the current Maduro administration is responsible for the continuance of the economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela due to its ability to remain united. Despite pressure from the Venezuelan people and international community, Maduro remains in power due to his staunch political and military supporters who have been put into position through Maduro’s effective bribery and blackmail system: his supporters have access to an exclusive bolivar/dollar exchange rate, and those who do not support his regime are immediately flushed out of the political system23. However, international sanctions have been imposed on high ranking Venezuelan officials in order to break unity and weaken internal alliances.24 In addition, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has accused Maduro of preparing to flee to Cuba, only convinced not to do so by Russia. Maduro has vehemently denied this accusation.
The Opposition Coalition Led by Juan Guaido, the head of the National Assembly, the opposition to Maduro’s regime has been working to gain the legitimacy to take over as Venezuela’s ruling entity. After Maduro’s questionable 2018 re-election, Guaido declared himself interim president on the constitutional basis that allows for the head of the National Assembly to become Venezuela’s interim leader in
18 Ana Vanessa Herrero and Megan Specia, “Venezuela is in Crisis. So How did Maduro Secure a Second Term?” The New York Times, January 10, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro- inauguration.html 19 Ibid. 20 Ibid. 21 Ibid. 22 “Venezuela Crisis in 300 Words,” BBC News. 23 Rodriguez, Felix Seijas. "The Six Players in Venezuela's Crisis." Americas Quarterly. July 28, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/six-players-venezuelas-crisis. 24 Rogers, Katie. "Trump, Seeking to Put Pressure on Maduro, Threatens a Full Embargo on Cuba." The New York Times. May 01, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/us/politics/trump-maduro- cuba.html?module=inline.
9 the absence of a President.25 Subsequently, the Democratic Unity Roundtable or Mesa de la Unidad Democratica (MUD) formed a parallel government to Maduro’s, supported by the Venezuelan people.26 Guaido has gained a significant amount of support from the international community, with the US, EU, and most Latin American governments in support of the overthrow of Maduro. However, Guiado must rally enough dissidents, including members of the Maduro regime, in order to legitimize his position through a popular mandate.
The Venezuelan National Armed Force (FAN) Comprised of over 500,000 troops and veteran military officers loyal to Maduro, the Venezulan military is one of the key factors in determining the fate of the nation.27 FAN is currently responsible for controlling riots and protests, as well as prohibiting foreign humanitarian aid from entering the country. In the case of a foreign invasion, the Venezuelan military would be directly involved in the fighting. Within the 38% of Maduro’s cabinet who are retired or active military officers, corruption is widespread as Maduro’s followers exploit the natural resources, food, and economy of Venezuela.28 Depending on Maduro’s ability to sustain the military’s loyalty and Guaido’s ability to win over enough defectors to the opposition, the military has the power to tip the scales in either leader’s favor.
The Venezuelan People Although the Venezuelan people have been largely ignored by the Maduro government, widespread riots and protests have emphasized the impact that the Venezuelan people can have on the stability of the nation and legitimacy of the government. Angered by food shortages, a lack of public services, and worsening health conditions, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets to protest their discontentment with the government. This has not only put pressure on Maduro, but also gained the attention of the international community.29 The opinions of the Venezuelan people have the power to legitimize Guiado’s claim to the presidency, and potentially drive Maduro out of a position of authority.
The National Assembly & Constituent Assembly First elected in 2000, the National Assembly is a unicameral body made up of elected members based on a proportional representation system.30 After facing opposition from the
25 Fisher, Max. "Who Is Venezuela's Legitimate President? A Messy Dispute, Explained." The New York Times. February 05, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/world/americas/venezuela- maduro-guaido-legitimate.html. 26 Ibid. 27 Rodriguez, Felix Seijas. "The Six Players in Venezuela's Crisis." Americas Quarterly. July 28, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/six-players-venezuelas-crisis. 28 McDonnell, Patrick J., David S. Cloud, Chris Kaul, and Mery Mogollon. "In Venezuela Right Now, One Constituency Matters Most: The Military." Los Angeles Times. May 01, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-venezuela-military-20190501-story.html. 29 Rodriguez, Felix Seijas. "The Six Players in Venezuela's Crisis." Americas Quarterly. July 28, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/six-players-venezuelas-crisis.
30 McCoy, Jennifer L. "Venezuela's Controversial New Constituent Assembly, Explained." The Washington Post. August 01, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey- cage/wp/2017/08/01/venezuelas-dubious-new-constituent-assembly-explained/.
10 assembly, Maduro formed the Constituent Assembly in 2017, comprised of his primary supporters, with the intent to re-write the Venezuelan constitution to his benefit.31 Many Venezuelans and foreign states have denied the legitimacy of the Constituent Assembly, refusing to recognize the votes or decisions originating from the newly created body. Feeling threatened by the rise of an opposition government, Maduro has been planning to dissolve the Guiado-run National Assembly and hold new legislative elections, despite the fact that the next parliamentary elections are not scheduled until December 2020.32 The rivalry between the National Assembly and the Constituent Assembly has the potential to deepen the conflict between Maduro and the opposition, with tensions rising on both sides.
Regional Impacts
As a result of the ongoing crisis, the Venezuelan people have been struggling to maintain economic stability and a secure way of life in the conflict-riddled South American country. Although Venezuela contains the world’s largest oil reserves, due to Chavez’s unrestricted spending up until his death in 2013, the country is now stricken with hyperinflation.33 Despite initially supporting Chavez’s populist messages and social welfare programs, following a short period of improvement, Venezuelans are now facing a bigger challenge.
Economic Effects Due to Chavez’s precarious oil- reliant economy and unsustainable social welfare system, the national economy has been facing a plethora of negative consequences after oil prices plummeted in 2014. Subsequent to Maduro’s succession of Chavez, Venezuela’s GDP has fallen 35%, which is a sharper drop than the one seen in the USA’s Great Depression.34 Economists say that Venezuela’s fall is the “single largest economic collapse outside of war in at least 45 years.” 35 With the fall of the country’s economy, armed gangs have been
31 Ibid. 32 Armas, Mayela, and Brian Ellsworth. "Venezuela's Guaido Says Government Plans to Dissolve Opposition-run..." Reuters. August 12, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela- politics/venezuelas-guaido-says-government-plans-to-dissolve-opposition-run-legislature-idUSKCN1V204G. 33 Vox. "The Collapse of Venezuela, Explained." YouTube. August 25, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1gUR8wM5vA&list=PLa9nXFptFwgD6BqH4nKS95gXRTeJRzF4F&index= 2&t=347s. 34Vox. "The Collapse of Venezuela, Explained." YouTube. August 25, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1gUR8wM5vA&list=PLa9nXFptFwgD6BqH4nKS95gXRTeJRzF4F&index= 2&t=347s. 35 Ibid.
11 dominating entire towns, public services have been rendered useless, and the purchasing power of most Venezuelans is practically worthless. By the end of 2019, Venezuela’s GDP is predicted to have shrunk 62% since 2013.36 In addition, Maduro has rigged the Venezuelan economy to keep himself in power by exploiting the currency system: the official exchange rate is 10 bolivars per US dollar, but only a select few have access to this rate. The Venezuelan currency has become virtually worthless, as most individuals as forced to get their dollars on the black market, where the exchange rate is 21,051.03 bolivars per US dollar.37
Social Effects Currently, food and medicine is unaffordable for about 82% of the population and Venezuela has the 3rd highest rate of murder in the world.38 Many businesses have plummeted in sales and merchants and marketplace vendors are forced to accept worthless bills which decrease in value everyday.39 Venezuela’s livestock industry, which once flourished, is now on the brink of extinction with most people unable to afford meat, and the few surviving ranchers being forced to hand over their cattle to armed gangs.40 Maracaibo, the capital city of one of Venezuela’s most populous states, Zulia, has been facing sporadic power outages, with electricity blackouts worsening water and gasoline shortages and resulting in towns and villages losing cell-phone coverage.41 Basic public services such as hospitals and banks are no longer functioning due to a lack of funds. As a result of these issues, there has been a significant increase in mass demonstrations and protests in Venezuela. In 2017, an unprecedented number of 9,787 protests occurred throughout the country, with a large majority of these protests demanding social and economic improvements such as labor rights, access to food, medication, and healthcare, and more.42 However, these protests received little attention from the media and government, with state authorities infringing upon the people’s right to peaceful assembly through the use of excessive force and arbitrary detentions.
Humanitarian Effects According to estimates from the United Nations, approximately 25% of Venezuelans are in need of humanitarian assistance, with millions of people lacking access to food and basic services.43 Reports from various U.N. agencies and the Red Cross estimate 94% of the 28.8 million
36 Ibid. 37“Noticias De Venezuela y Dolar Paralelo.” DolarToday, https://dolartoday.com/. 38Vox. "The Collapse of Venezuela, Explained." YouTube. August 25, 2017. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1gUR8wM5vA&list=PLa9nXFptFwgD6BqH4nKS95gXRTeJRzF4F&index= 2&t=347s. 39 Kurmanaev, Anatoly. "Venezuela's Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say." The New York Times. May 17, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/world/americas/venezuela-economy.html. 40 Ibid. 41 Ibid. 42 "Venezuela Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help." World Vision. July 13, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/venezuela-crisis-facts. 43 Nichols, Michelle. "Venezuelans Facing Unprecedented Challenges, Many Need Aid -..." Reuters. March 29, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/venezuelans-facing- unprecedented-challenges-many-need-aid-internal-u-n-report-idUSKCN1R92AG.
12 people residing in Venezuela live in poverty.44 This does not include the 3.4 million people who have fled the country, due to Venezuela’s insecure economy and political unrest.45 Around 300,000 people’s lives are at risk due to a lack of access to medicines or treatment for diseases such as cancer, diabetes, and HIV, while an estimated 2.8 million people are in need of healthcare.46 Diseases such as tuberculosis, diphtheria, measles, malaria, and hepatitis A are on the rise in Venezuela, due to the lack of access to clean drinking water, and 4.3 million people are in need of improved sanitation and hygiene conditions.47 1.9 million people are in need of nutrition due to a shortage of food, while 1.2 million children are unable to attend school as many families cannot afford school supplies, clothing, and transportation.48 However, Maduro has insisted that there is no need for humanitarian aid, rather blaming the United States’ sanctions as the cause of the country’s problems. In April 2019, Venezuelan government troops prohibited aid convoys backed by the US from entering Colombia and Brazil, while conversely accepting aid from its ally, Russia.49 On this matter, the United Nations has stated, “The politicization of humanitarian assistance in the context of the crisis makes delivery of assistance in accordance with the principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence more difficult.”50 In addition to the internal humanitarian crisis, Venezuela is facing Latin America’s biggest refugee crisis to date. In the past two years, Venezuela has lost over 10% of its population with millions fleeing the country for nearby nations such as Colombia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Brazil,
44 Ibid. 45 Ibid. 46 Ibid. 47 Ibid. 48 Ibid. 49 Ibid. 50 Nichols, Michelle. "Venezuelans Facing Unprecedented Challenges, Many Need Aid -..." Reuters. March 29, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-un/venezuelans-facing- unprecedented-challenges-many-need-aid-internal-u-n-report-idUSKCN1R92AG.
13 Spain, and more. The number of displaced Venezuelan people is only increasing, and estimated to reach 5.4 million individuals by the end of 2019.51
51 "Venezuela Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help." World Vision. July 13, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/venezuela-crisis-facts.
14 US Involvement & Key Issues
This situation is no doubt the worst economic crisis in Venezuela’s history, marked by escalating starvation, disease, and mortality rates, which have fueled violent political dissent and massive emigration. Recently, Venezuelean opposition leader Juan Guaido has been attempting to overthrow Maduro, claiming that Maduro’s re-election in 2018 was illegitimate. The US has been one of Guaido’s most vocal supporters, with the Trump administration imposing sanctions in an attempt to dislodge Maduro from power. The Trump administration’s relentless attempts to dislodge Maduro from power and Maduro’s negative response towards the US’s current policies are reflective of the tense relationship between the two countries.
US & Venezuela Relations Historically, the United States and Venezuela have had an important trade and investment relationship, due to Venezuela’s coveted oil supply.52 In the past, the two countries have also worked together to combat the production and transit of illicit drug substances.53 Beginning with the George W. Bush administration in 2001, the US and Venezuela maintained a record of tense relations. Chavez regularly denounced US foreign policies in countries such as Cuba, Iraq, and Haiti, and Chavez’s stance in OPEC raised the price of oil for the US.54 The United States also took similar policies, opposing Venezuela’s leader. The US lobbied against multiple arms purchases that Venezuela attempted to make, and pressured countries such as Spain and Israel not to arm Venezuela’s military with weapons or forces.55 Despite the strained relationship, in 2006, the United States remained Venezuela’s most important trading partner for both oil and general exports, and bilateral trade expanded 36% during that year.56 This economic relationship remained strong regardless of political differences, with Venezuela being the fifth largest oil supplier to the US at one point.57 However, on January 23, 2019, the US and Venezuela cut official diplomatic ties when the Trump administration recognized Juan Guaido as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, announcing its support for Guaido’s goals to overthrow Maduro.58 Almost immediately after Trump’s announcement, Maduro announced his decision to break ties with the US and ordered all Venezuelan diplomats to leave the US within 72 hours.59 Since then the US has been imposing sanctions against Venezuelan officials to hold them accountable for corruption and human rights violations.
52 Kahn, Carrie, and Alex Leff. "Trump's Venezuela Moves Follow Long History Of Intervention In Latin America." NPR. February 22, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.npr.org/2019/02/22/696057482/trumps-venezuela-moves-follow-long-history-of-intervention-in-latin- america. 53 Ibid. 54 Nugent, Ciara. "Venezuela and the History of U.S. Intervention in Latin America." Time. January 25, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/. 55 Ibid. 56 S. Rep. No. Venezuela: Background & U.S. Relations-R44841 at 2-24 (2019). 57 Ibid. 58 S. Rep. No. Venezuela: Background & U.S. Relations-R44841 at 2-24 (2019). 59 Ibid.
15 Hyperinflation, International Sanctions, & Economic War In 2018, bilateral trade between the United States and Venezuela reached $19 billion, with exports from the US to Venezuela totaling $6 billion and US imports from Venezuela, $13 billion.60 However, hyperinflation and government intervention in the economy in the form of expropriations, macroeconomic distortions, violations of labor rights, and overall corruption has led to a decline in trade for Venezuela.61 An imbalanced foreign exchange system rigged by Maduro’s desire to utilize the economy to keep regional power in his hands has resulted in a lack of dollars within the country and has prevented multinational companies from repatriating their earnings from Venezuela and importing completed goods into the country.62 This situation has pushed many US firms to reduce or shut down operations in Venezuela. Due to the unstable economic and political environment in Venezuela, the US has made over 150 designations, based on various Executive Orders (EO), related to Venezuela.63 On August 24, 2017, the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela through EO 13808, prohibiting individuals originating from the US in dealings involving the Government of Venezuela and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the government oil company.64 Through this order, Maduro was effectively denied an important source of funds to maintain his regime as he could no longer use the US system to restructure existing debts and blame the US for complicity in Venezuela's political corruption and humanitarian crisis. On March 19, 2018, EO 13827 was issue, expanding economic sanctions against Venezuela to include prohibition of dealings in digital currency, coin, or token.65 EO 13850 issued on November 1, 2018, placed sanctions on operations in Venezuela’s gold sector, and other sectors of the Venezuelan economy, determined by the Secretary of the Treasury.66 These sanctions and other actions have placed pressure on Maduro, financially and politically, and the US’s position on the Maduro government became clear. The worst blow to the Venezuelan economy came on January 28, 2019, when the US declared a full-blown economic war against Maduro by declaring an embargo against PDVSA, driven by the Trump administration’s doctrine of protectionism.67 Since then, the official bolivar/US dollar exchange rate has plummeted, shooting past the black-market rates in Venezuela. Up until January of 2019, the Black Market Premium (BMP), had always been positive, indicating that Venezuelans were willing to pay a premium for US dollars on the black market.68 However, after Trump’s embargo, the BMP turned negative, implying that the bolivar will appreciate relative to the dollar, prohibiting Maduro’s cronies and insiders from benefiting from the BMP.69
60 "U.S. Relations With Venezuela - United States Department of State." U.S. Department of State. July 8, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-venezuela/. 61 Ibid. 62 Ibid. 63 Ibid. 64 Ibid. 65 Ibid. 66 Ibid. 67 Hanke, Steve. "The U.S. Declares Economic War Against Venezuela." Forbes. February 03, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/01/29/the-u-s-declares-economic-war-against- venezuela/#32843e7b4711. 68 Ibid. 69 Ibid.
16 US Interference & Intervention In response to the actions the Trump administration has taken, Maduro has stated that the downfall of the Venezuelan economy and the ensuing humanitarian crisis is largely due to the actions of the US. Maduro has accused the US of attempting to cause a coup in order to install a puppet government and protect its interests in Venezuela.70 Referring to the United States’ history of interfering in Latin American governments in order to support left-wing movements and populist parties, Maduro has condemned all actions of US interference and refused any humanitarian aid from the United States.71 In response, members of the Trump administration have voiced their opinions forcefully. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Maduro of being a “sick tyrant” for stopping aid from reaching Venezuelan civilians, and National Security Adviser John Bolton declared Maduro to be a “dictator [who is] holding an illegitimate claim to power.”72 Despite Maduro’s accusations, Trump has continued to attack Venezuela with sanctions, calling on members of the Venezuelan military to defect and abandon Maduro. In his argument, Trump has threatened, “If you choose this path, you will find no safe harbor, no easy exit, and no way out. You will lose everything.”73
Political Struggle: Dictatorship vs Democracy In order to maintain his political power, Nicolas Maduro continued his presidency after his first term, without the presence of free and fair elections, on January 10, 2019.74 Desperate to maintain his position, Maduro has arbitrarily jailed or banned his political opponents, with government security forces killing protest demonstrators.75 Maduro has also rigged elections in his favor, creating a biased government which has redefined the Venezuelan constitution to expand Maduro’s executive powers.76 This has resulted in many international observers, including the United States, to accuse Maduro of running a dictatorship, leading Venezuela down a path of authoritarianism, and destroying the democracy once present in the country. In opposition to Maduro, Juan Guaido declared himself to be the interim president of Venezuela on January 23, 2019, citing the Venezuelan constitution as grounds for his actions due to Maduro’s allegedly fraudulent election.77 After gaining support from the United States and other countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru, Guaido has continued to oppose Maduro, defying his travel ban to meet with the presidents of Colombia, Chile, and Paraguay.78
70 Nugent, Ciara. "Venezuela and the History of U.S. Intervention in Latin America." Time. January 25, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/. 71 Ibid. 72 Vasquez. "Bolton Ramps up Attack on 'illegitimate' Maduro Reign in Venezuela." POLITICO. January 12, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/bolton-claims-manduro-illegitimate-claim- 1098634. 73 Mellen, Ruby. "What's Going on in Venezuela?" The Washington Post. February 25, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/02/25/venezuelas-political-crisis-is-getting-worse-heres-what- you-need-know/?noredirect=on. 74 Wallenfeldt, Jeff. "Juan Guaidó." Encyclopædia Britannica. July 24, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Juan-Guaido. 75 Ibid. 76 Ibid. 77 "Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro: Dictator or Defender of Socialism?" BBC News. January 28, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-20664349. 78 Ibid.
17 Guaido has stated his aims to restore democracy to Venezuela by overthrowing Maduro’s regime and holding free and fair elections to select a new leader. Unfazed by the enormous opposition he faces in Maduro’s military backing, Guaido has appointed members of a parallel government and held meetings with members of the opposing military who are discontent with Maduro’s rule.
US Relations with Colombia, Cuba, and Russia As the United States has taken a firm stance in supporting Guiado and condemning Maduro, it is important to consider the relationships America has had with Latin America in the past and present, as well as the other countries involved in the international discussion of the Venezuela Crisis. Latin America is not only the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US, it is also the United States’ fastest developing trade partner, as well as the largest source of immigrants.79 Historically, the United States dominated Latin America for over a century, with many US policies in the region shaped and influenced by the Monroe Doctrine.80 Due to a past history of the US regarding regions of Latin America as unofficially within its sphere of influence, relations between the US and Latin American countries remain cordial, if not tense. For example, Colombia’s relationship with the United States were strained during the early 20th century following US involvement in the Panama revolt, and remained strained until the 1980s due to the influx of marijuana and cocaine from Colombia into the US .81 However, relations improved as the US declared a “war on drugs” in Latin America, aiding Colombia in its hunt for Pablo Escobar as well as providing the country with $1.3 billion in aid in 2000.82 The US and Colombia have had generally similar stances toward the Venezuela crisis in supporting Guiado and the insurgency, and Colombia has taken in a large majority of Venezuelan refugees fleeing the country. Similarly, relations between Cuba and the US were tumultuous in the past, subsequent to the Cold War and Fidel Castro’s overthrow of the US regime in Cuba in 1959.83 Following the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the US passed multiple laws such as the Cuba Democracy Act of 1992 and the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996, which reaffirmed US sanctions and its intent to hold an embargo in place until democracy was restored in Cuba.84 However, in 2008, President Obama pursued a policy of detente in his approach to relations with Cuba, leading to the restoration of official diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba on July 20, 2015.85 Despite this reconciliation, the Trump administration has reignited controversy with Cuba, by prohibiting commerce involving the Cuban military and forbidding any individual travel from the US to Cuba.
79 Sweig, Julia E, James T Hill, Charlene Barshefsky, and Shannon K O'Neil. “U.S.-Latin America Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, May 2008. https://www.cfr.org/report/us-latin- america-relations. 80 Ibid. 81 Hanratty, Dennis M, and Sandra W Meditz. “Colombia Relations with the United States.” Colombia - Relations with the United States, 1998. http://countrystudies.us/colombia/98.htm. 82 Sweig, Julia E, James T Hill, Charlene Barshefsky, and Shannon K O'Neil. “U.S.-Latin America Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, May 2008. https://www.cfr.org/report/us-latin- america-relations. 83 Lee, Brianna, and James McBride. “U.S.-Cuba Relations.” Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations. Accessed September 11, 2019. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-cuba-relations. 84 Ibid. 85 Ibid.
18 86 The US has criticized Cuba for its poor human rights record and the two countries unsurprisingly clash in regards to the situation in Venezuela, as Cuba is strongly in support of Maduro staying in power. Since the establishment of official relations in 1809, the United States and Russia have constantly had a rivalry, as two dominant world powers, looking to secure an advantageous position on the international scene. Russia and the United States are also historically known to have clashed over ideas of government, with Russia’s communist tendencies and the United States’ endeavors to preserve democracy. Following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US has supported Russia in its process of integrating into Europe and various global institutions, generally maintaining a positive relationship.87 However, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the emergence of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, and the annexation of Crimea by Russia, also in 2014, has led to the deterioration of relations between Russia and the US.88 The two countries have also faced disagreements over Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War, and Russia’s alleged intervention in the 2016 US presidential elections is a topic of widespread controversy.89 With Russia’s support of Maduro, relations between the US and Russia continue to grow more strained.
Involvement at the Organization of American States (OAS) On January 10, 2019, the OAS announced a Press Release stating that the Permanent Council of the OAS had agreed “to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro’s new term as of the 10th of January of 2019.”90 The passed resolution recognized the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, condemning Maduro for various human rights violations, the reappearance of infectious diseases, and more, and called for the member states of the OAS to take the necessary steps to aid the restoration of democracy in Venezuela. On January 24, 2019, various member states of the OAS, including Argentina, Bahamas, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and the United States, issued a Joint Statement regarding the crisis in Venezuela.91 Together, the member states announced their full support for Juan Guaido, the President of the National Assembly, and called for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela through a process led by Guaido, including transparent elections with international electoral observation.
86 Ibid. 87 “U.S. Relations With Russia - United States Department of State.” U.S. Department of State. U.S. Department of State, June 25, 2019. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/. 88 Ibid. 89 Ibid. 90"OAS Permanent Council Agrees ‘to Not Recognize the Legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro's New Term’." OAS. August 01, 2009. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E- 001/19. 91 "OAS Member States Issue Joint Statement on Venezuela." U.S. Mission to the Organization of American States. January 24, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://usoas.usmission.gov/oas-member-states-issue-joint-statement- on-venezuela/.
19 Senate & House Actions During the 2019 Fiscal Year, Congress granted $17.5 million to go towards promoting democracy and rule of law programs in Venezuela.92 The 116th Congress is predicted to provide more aid for Venezuela, and the congressional budget for 2020 asks for $9 million to go towards Venezuela.93 On May 20, 2019, the House Appropriations Committee announced its FY2020 Department of State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Act (H.R. 2389), which will allow for an additional $17.5 million to go towards democracy and human rights aid in Venezuela.94 Subsequently, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee ordered for three amendments to be added to the act on May 22, 2019: H.R. 854 to authorize expanded humanitarian aid, H.R. 920 to prohibit arms transfers to Maduro, and S. 1025 to increase humanitarian aid to Venezuela and those countries providing shelter to displaced Venezuelans and aiding in Venezuela’s democratic transition.95 The House Judiciary Committee also ordered H.R. 549 to be reported in order to ensure the rights of Venezuelans in the United States under Temporary Protected Status.96 In addition to taking action to combat the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and provide support to the Venezuelan people in need of basic necessities, medicine, shelter, and safety, the House Committee of Foreing Affairs ordered H.R. 1004 to be reported, which would prohibit the use of US military forces in combat operations in Venezuela.97 The Senate Foreign Relations Committee also ordered S. 1025, a comprehensive bill addressing the crisis in Venezuela, including H.R. 1102, which would require an examination of security cooperation between Russia and Venezuela.98
Current & Potential US Military Actions After recognizing Guaido as Venezuela's interim President, Trump announced on January 28, 2019 that “all options are on the table” in response to a question regarding the potential of sending US military troops into Venezuela.99 Although officials from the Trump administration met with rebels in Venezuela in late 2017 and early 2018 to discuss plans regarding the coup against Maduro, the US eventually decided not to provide material support.100 While Trump’s open-ended response indicates that there is potential for military involvement in Venezuela, many officials, including the Pentagon’s former top US Air Force General, Douglas Fraser, has advised against taking military action due to the Venezuelan armed forces’ support of Maduro.101
92 S. Rep. No. Venezuela: Background & U.S. Relations-R44841 at 2-24 (2019). 93 Ibid. 94 Ibid. 95 Ibid. 96 Ibid. 97 Ibid. 98 S. Rep. No. Venezuela: Background & U.S. Relations-R44841 at 2-24 (2019). 99 Mason, Jeff. "Trump Says All Options Are on the Table for Venezuela." Reuters. January 23, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-trump-options/trump-says-all-options-are- on-the-table-for-venezuela-idUSKCN1PH2KC. 100 Nugent, Ciara. "Venezuela and the History of U.S. Intervention in Latin America." Time. January 25, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/. 101 Ward, Alex. "Don't Invade Venezuela, Says Former US General." Vox. January 24, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.vox.com/2019/1/24/18196171/trump-venezuela-military-coup-fraser-table.
20 If the US did decide to take military action in Venezuela, it would most likely be in the form of either precision air strikes or a full-blown ground invasion. The former option is a cheap method of eliminating the enemy; however, the US’s past airstrike attempts in Libya in 2011 and Yugoslavia in 1999 prove the unpredictability of the various factors involved in an airstrike.102 The latter option is also questionable as any military action against Venezuela would require US troops to face a resistance of 515,000 Venezuelan military.103 Even if the US was successful in its military endeavors, in a full-blown attack was launched, after the war, Venezuela would be in a worse state than what it is currently, riddled by a post-war humanitarian catastrophe.
Refugee Migration Crisis According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants is projected to reach over 5.3 million by the end of 2019.104 Out of the Venezuelans who have fled their home country, a majority go to Colombia, where 1.3 million refugees currently reside, along with Peru, which hosts 768,000 individuals.105 The remaining numbers have fled to other nearby countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, and the US.106 In the US, Venezuela has surpassed China to become the number one country of origin for individuals seeking asylum in the US.107 Almost 30,000 Venezuelans have applied for asylum in 2018, and ⅓ of the claims filed with the US Citizenship and Immigration services in 2018 are reported to have come from Venezuela.108 In addition to those legally seeking refuge in the US, the total number of refugees, both legally and illegally residing in the US, adds up to approximately 290,000 individuals. Out of those who apply for asylum, 50% of claims are denied, with Trump vehemently opposing any influx of immigrants from Venezuela, endorsing an immigration policy which contradicts his comments stating his desire to help the Venezuelans in need.109 The Trump administration has refrained from utilizing the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) system which would allow Venezuelans to remain in the US due to extraordinary circumstances in their home country, and it has not made any effort to prioritize Venezuelans in the asylum seeking system.110 However, the US government has provided humanitarian aid to support regional response efforts. Approximately $96.5 million was put towards funding the effort during the 2017 and 2018 fiscal years, and the US has also provided $37 million to Colombia as bilateral assistance.111 In
102 Ibid. 103 Ibid. 104 S. Rep. No. Venezuela: Background & U.S. Relations-R44841 at 2-24 (2019). 105 "Venezuela Crisis: Four Million Have Fled the Country, UN Says." BBC News. June 07, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48559739. 106 Ibid. 107 S. Rep. No. The Venezuela Regional Migration Crisis-IF11029 at 1-2 (2019). 108 Ibid. 109 Holpuch, Amanda. "Trump Administration Denies Special Help to Venezuelans Seeking Asylum." The Guardian. May 05, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/05/venezuela- asylum-seekers-refugees-trump-administration-us. 110 Ibid. 111 S. Rep. No. The Venezuela Regional Migration Crisis-IF11029 at 1-2 (2019).
21 response to Guiado’s request to the US for aid, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also pledged an additional $20 million in aid on January 24, 2019112 In December of 2018, UNHCR and IOM launched the regional Refugee and Migrant Response plan (RMRP), which includes 95 organizations from 16 countries, all of which are dedicated to assisting Venezuelans in need.113 The program is also a form of an appeal for $738 million needed to support the refugees.114
112 Ibid. 113 Ibid. 114 Ibid.
22 Other Involved Nations
After Maduro’s inauguration in January, the US, Canada, and Brazil declared him an ‘illegitimate dictator’. International demonstrations occurred on both sides, with hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans around the world in support of both Guaido and Maduro.115 Some of the more significant responses and declarations may be categorized as below:
Brazil Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro declared he would devote his full attention to ‘re- establish order, democracy, and freedom’ in Venezuela. The Bolsonaro administration recognized Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela in January 2019.116 Despite closing its sea and air borders with Curacao, Brazil has promised to send humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan border to support Guaido’s efforts to provide food and supplies to Venezuelans in need.117
China In January 2019, China was originally supportive of Maduro releasing statements that China “supports efforts made by the Venezuelan government to protect the country’s sovereignty, independence, and stability”.118 Moving into February 2019, China’s stance began to soften in fear of alienating other South American stakeholders and out of frustration for Venezuela’s inability to repay its $67B USD of debt owed to China.119 At this point, China’s priority has shifted to a more neutral stance, adopting a constructive role to restore Venezuela to a normal development path while remaining opposed to foreign interference, force, threats, or unilateral sanctions with regards to the current crisis. Further, President Xi issued a statement supporting the resolution of conflict between the Maduro and Guaido sides of the conflict through inclusive political dialogue.120
Cuba The international community has criticized the Cuban government for its involvement in military and intelligence activities in Venezuela, assisting the Maduro government in training forces and commanding operations.121 In response, the Trump administration has imposed
115 Sesin, C. “Venezuelans Take to the Streets Worldwide Calling for an End to Maduros Presidency.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 3 Feb. 2019, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/venezuelans-take- streets-worldwide-calling-end-maduro-s-presidency-n966076 116 Gestion, R. “Brasil reconoce a Juan Guaido como presidente interino de Venezuela”. Gestion, 12 Jan. 2019, https://gestion.pe/mundo/brasil-reconoce-juan-guaido-legitimo-presidente-venezuela-nndc-255542-noticia/ 117 "Venezuela Crisis: Four Million Have Fled the Country, UN Says." BBC News. June 07, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48559739. 118 Rawlins, C, G. “China opposes outside interference in Venezuela’s affairs”. Reuters.com, 24 Jan. 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china/china-opposes-outside-interference-in-venezuelas- affairs-idUSKCN1PI18O 119 Ibid. 120 Ibid. 121 Carrasco, Jorge C. "Venezuelan Democracy Was Strangled by Cuba." Foreign Policy. May 14, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/14/venezuelan-democracy-was-strangled-by-cuba/.
23 sanctions on Cuba, forcing the country to ration its food.122 The history of Venezuela and Cuba goes back more than 25 years, when Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez formed a trade relationship, with Castro fixated on a lucrative trade opportunity and Chavez looking to maintain his political power through the presence of Cuban intelligentsia.123 Despite the decline of oil production in Venezuela, over 40,000 barrels of oil are sent to Cuba from Venezuela on a daily basis, and Maduro is reported to have sent nearly $440 million of foreign oil to Cuba in 2018 in order to fulfill his commitments to Havana.124
Colombia Due to its geographical proximity to Venezuela, Colombia has taken in over 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees in the past two years.125 Along with many other countries, Colombia has stated its firm support for Guaido, condemning Maduro’s actions as human rights violations. Colombia’s President, Ivan Duque, has spoken against a military intervention in Venezuela, proposing a plan similar to the US’s Marshall Plan, which would provide $40 billion of international aid to rebuild Venezuela’s economic and social structures.126 Maduro officially cut diplomatic ties with Colombia in February of 2019, following an outbreak of violence along the two countries’ borders.127
Iran Iran supports Maduro’s government, and looks unfavorably upon any kind of foreign intervention in its internal affairs. Condemning US threats and sanctions against Venezuela, Iran has spoken up against any military action by the US, calling American intervention “a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.”128 Despite the geographical distance Iran and Venezuela, the two nations have recently strengthened their ties over a common hostility toward the US.
Russia Russia has been another major international player in the Venezuelan crisis in support of Nicolas Maduro, having supported Venezuela from military and economic aspects since President Chavez.129 As one of the Maduro government’s most vocal supporters, Russia has flown Tu-160
122 Abrams, Abigail. "Cuba Braces for Economic Impact From Venezuela Crisis." Time. May 16, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://time.com/5590217/rations-in-cuba-venezuela-crisis/. 123 Borges, Julio. "Cuba Has Hijacked Venezuela." The New York Times. April 10, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/opinion/venezuela-julio-borges.html. 124 Ibid. 125 "Military Intervention Not an Answer for Venezuela: Colombia..." Reuters. March 15, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-colombia/military-intervention-not-an-answer-for- venezuela-colombia-president-tells-paper-idUSKCN1QW19T. 126 Ibid. 127 Smith-Spark, Laura. "Venezuela's Maduro Breaks Relations with Colombia in Standoff over Aid." CNN. February 24, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/americas/venezuela-brazil- violence-intl/index.html. 128 O'Connor, Tom. "Iran Defends Venezuela as the U.S. Warns of "all Options" against Two More Oil-rich Nations." Newsweek. May 03, 2019. Accessed August 14, 2019. https://www.newsweek.com/iran-defends- venezuela-all-options-oil-1414237. 129 Rainsford, S. “Venezuela Crisis: Why Russia has so much to lose.” BBCNews.com, 1 Feb. 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47087875
24 nuclear capable bombers to Venezuela, supported Maduro in the UN, and facilitated a large portion of arms trade with Venezuela.130 Domestic relations have widely varied: from praising Russia’s willingness to voice its support for Maduro and confront the US, to criticisms of Russia for continuing to invest in economic aid to the black hole of Venezuela.131
United States The United States was among one of the first nations to recognize Guaido’s presidency as legitimate after he swore in in January 2019, and has remained a staunch supporter of Guaido’s government while refusing to recognize Maduro’s legitimacy.132 In the same month, the US imposed economic sanctions on the Venezuelan state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA, and withdrew its diplomats from Caracas in March.133
European Union Over half of EU member states including the UK, France, Germany, and Spain have declared their support for the Guaido government. The EU has issued statements supporting “the National Assembly as the democratically elected institution whose powers need to be restored and respected” and condemned the Constituent Assembly for stripping Guaido’s parliamentary immunity. 134
The Lima Group Established in August 2017, the Lima Group was established as a multilateral body to establish a peaceful exit to the Crisis in Venezuela.135 At this point, the group broadly advocates for the release of political prisoners, calls for free elections, offers humanitarian aid, and criticizes the breakdown of democracy in Venezuela.136 The group--except for Mexico and a few others, which has called for non-intervention in Venezuelan internal affairs--continued to back the Guaido government and supports “the restoration of democracy and constitutional order in Venezuela.”137
United Nations The UN Security Council first met in January 2019 to discuss Venezuela, but no consensus was reached.138 In February, a group of UN delegates including Russia, China, and Venezuela
130 Ibid. 131 Ibid. 132 Ma, A. “Almost every country in Latin America sided with Trump against Venezuela’s embattled President Maduro” Business Insider, 24 Jan. 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-almost-all-latin-america-like- trump-supports-maduro-rival-2019-1?r=US&IR=T 133 Ibid. 134 OAS. “OAS Permanent Council Agrees “to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro’s new term”. OAS Press Release, 10 Jan. 2019, http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-001/19 135 Taj, M. “Mexico urges regional bloc not to meddle in Venezuela”. Reuters, 4 Jan. 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/mexico-urges-regional-bloc-not-to-meddle-in-venezuela- idUSKCN1OY1R4 136 Ibid. 137 Ibid. 138 Schneider, E. “Venezuela: Competing US, Russia resolutions fail to pass in Security Council” US News, 28 Feb. 2019, https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/02/1033832
25 declared the American-led effort to change Venezuelan government “illicit.”139 The Security Council itself is heavily divided: the US drafted a resolution for new elections in Venezuela, humanitarian aid, and recognition of Guaido--a resolution which was vetoed by Russia and China; Russia also proposed a resolution calling for dialogue between Maduro and Guaido governments in line with the Montevideo Initiative from Mexico and Uruguay (at the International Conference on the Situation in Venezuela), but failed to pass.140
Organization of American States (OAS) The OAS approved a resolution on January 10, 2019 “to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro’s new term.”141 Days later, the Secretary General of the OAS Luis Almagro recognized Guaido as legitimate; the committee itself is divided between those supportive of Guaido’s government and others who remained neutral on the presidential crisis.142
Questions to Consider
During the process of researching and preparing for PacMUN, it will be helpful for you to consider the following questions in relation to your role in the committee. Consider how your character would respond to the questions below and brainstorm what answers he/she would give. This exercise will not only help you prepare for critical discussion and debate during the conference, it will also give you a better understanding of the perspective of the leaders grappling with the issues of the Venezuela crisis in real life today.
1. What is the most pressing aspect of the Venezuelan crisis? Is it more important to address the humanitarian or political aspect of the issue first? 2. What would potential US military intervention in Venezuela look like, and how involved should the US be in rebuilding the Venezuelan economy and society? 3. How do the historical ties that Venezuela has with the US affect the US’s current political and economic policies towards Venezuela? 4. How does the Trump administration’s policy of protectionism and Maduro’s accusations of US imperialism play a role in the way the US is seen by the international community in regards to the Venezuela crisis? 5. Does the Venezuela crisis parallel to the international power struggle from the Cold War? If so, how will that parallel affect the ultimate outcome of the Venezuela crisis on a domestic and international scale?
139 Ibid. 140 Ibid. 141 OAS. “OAS Permanent Council Agrees “to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro’s new term”. OAS Press Release, 10 Jan. 2019, http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-001/19 142 Ibid.
26 6. If Maduro is overthrown, to what extent should international players be a part of the re- election process?
27 Helpful Resources
To assist you in your research beyond this background guide, I have compiled a list of helpful resources that provide a basic foundation from which you can build your personal, detailed research. Please let me know if you have any issues accessing the article links or the Youtube playlist.
Articles
1. The Complicated US Relationship with Venezuela 2. Venezuela Background & US Relations (Congressional Research Service) 3. What Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like 4. OHCHR Venezuela Report 2018 5. How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a dictatorship on the brink of collapse 6. The Venezuelan Exodus 7. Venezuela Fast Facts 8. Juan Guiado Interview
Videos
1. PacMUN 2019 Venezuelan Crisis Youtube Playlist
28 Character List
Position Individual Vice President Mike Pence Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Secretary of Defense Richard Spencer Secretary of Energy Rick Perry Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats National Security Advisor John Bolton White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney Attorney General William Barr White House Counsel Pat Cipollone Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Gina Haspel Ambassador to the United Nations Jonathan Cohen United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer Chargé d'Affaires to Venezuela James Story Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman Ambassador to Colombia Kevin Whitaker Ambassador to Cuba Mara Tekach Ambassador to NATO Kay Hutchinson US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch US House Foreign Relations Committee Chair Eliot Engel
29 Technology & Award Policy
Technology
As PacMUN’s official technology policy is at each chair’s discretion, I would like to state that all delegates in the JCC: US committee are permitted to use electronic devices to access notes, articles, and other materials related to the conference. However, because there is no official Wi-Fi use available during PacMUN, delegates will not be allowed to access the internet during committee sessions. This includes internet use via smartphones as well as hotspots. Additionally, delegates are not permitted to use electronic devices for anything other than committee purposes (playing games, watching videos, texting, etc). Any delegates found breaking technology policy may be subject to having their device confiscated for the duration of the committee session.
Position Papers
All delegates interested in being eligible for awards must submit a position paper no more than 1 page, single spaced, 12 pt font, with 1 inch margins. Please make sure to cite your sources on a separate bibliography page in Chicago Manual of Style. For continuity I ask that delegates adhere to the following header formatting.
EXAMPLE Name: Yoo Ra Sung Position: President, Donald Trump Committee: JCC: United States Topic: The Venezuelan Crisis
Awards
Delegates are required to submit their position papers via email to the chair by November 11, 2019 at 11:59pm HST. Lateness will be taken into consideration when deciding awards, and delegates who do not submit a position paper at all will be ineligible for any award.
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