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Energy and Development in Kenya Opportunities and Constraints

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Energy and Development in Kenya Opportunities and Constraints Energy and Development in Kenya Opportunities and Constraints Published by The Beijer fnstitute The Scandina\.i:tn lr~srirrrrc The Royal Swedish of African Studics Academy of Scicnccs IJpf.~sala.Swedcr~ Stockholm. Swedcn ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA 1 ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS Edited by PHIL O'KEEFE, PAUL RASKIN AND STEVE BERNOW Published by THE BEIJER INSTITUTE THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish OF AFRICAN STUDIES Academy of Sciences Uppsal a, Sweden Stockholm, Sweden The series "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa" is pub- lished jointly by the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Insti- tute of African Studies with financial support from the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) . This book together with a series of companion volumes reports on a Beijer Institute study, the "Kenyan Fuelwood Project", undertaken jointly with the Government of Kenya. ISSN 0281 -8515 ISBN 91-7106-225-4 @the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of hfrican Studies 1984 Printed in Sweden by Bohuslaningens AB, Uddeval la 1984 The material presented in this Volume i S a summary of the findings of the Kenyan Fuelwood Project. The detailed analytical data on which these findings rest are contained in a series of technical volumes to be published later. It is worth recording how the Project came into being because its long period of incubation prior to start-up marks the gradual shifting of pub1i c perceptions about energy and energy p1 anning. As late as 1978 the belief was still widely held that of all the primary energy consumed in Kenya, about 80 per cent came from imported oil. But by 1980, the role of wood, charcoal and crop-wastes as fuels became generally recognized. By this time, it was being suggested that maybe as much as three-quarters of Kenya's annual primary energy was consumed as wood, charcoal and crop-residues with only about 20 per cent coming from oil. In other words, the predominant use of biomass-fuels by ordinary households for cooking, space-heating and even lighting also began to be accepted as "energy". This put the 25 per cent or so used in the commercial and industrial sectors into a more balanced perspective. In November 1977, the recently founded Beijer Institute began work on Energy and Development issues as part of the research remit mapped out for it by its International Advisory Board. Since the energy problems in East Africa seemed at that time to be critical, it was decided to embark on a long-term study of energyldevelopment issues in East Africa using Kenya as a case-study. Discussions began with Kenyan scientists in Stockholm and Nairobi in February 1978. Future energy provision was already under active consideration within Kenya and discussions led to an agreement with the Kenyan Energy Sub-committee to develop a two-phase seminar. Under Phase I, the National Council for Science and Technology (NCST) of Kenya planned a Kenyan National Energy Symposium to identify the main energy "actors" within Kenya and to initiate a forum for energy debate. This was held very successfully in November 1978. Under Phase 11, the Bei jer Institute would plan an International Workshop of a technical nature to provide a fact-base for elucidating the energy-policy issues of Kenya. This was held in Nairobi in May 1979 with wide local and international attendance. The Workshop was organized by the Beijer Institute and CO-sponsored by the Kenyan Academy of Sciences and the United Nations Environment Programme who subsequently published the Proceedings. As a result of this, the Government suggested that the Beijer Institute explore further the major theme of its Workshop - the role of fuelwood as a focal point in the energy economy of Kenya - and the preliminary discussions with the Ministry of Power and Communications were eventually transferred to the Ministry of Energy, newly formed after the October 1979 election. The Ministry required a detailed work-p1 an to be prepared and submitted to it for discussion prior to our embarking upon the work itself which should be a pre-investment study for a large rolling programme of future energy provision, concentrating on the place of biomass in the total energy-matrix of Kenya. Accordingly, with the help of some "seed-money" from the Swedish Agency for Research Co-operation with Developing Countries (SAREC), an International Reference Group of energy special ists selected by the Beijer Institute met in Stockholm in January 1980 to discuss the possibilities of mounting such a wide-ranging systems study of Kenya's future energy requirements. A further Group Meeting in March evaluated and adopted a document to be forwarded to the Kenyan Government who approved it. By August 1980 initial funding had been secured by the generosity of the Royal Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the German Appropriate Technology Exchange of the German Agency for Technical Co-operation (GTZ). The project was launched in December, 1980. Both the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequently contributed resources to complete the funding needed for the Project. It took almost 3 years of careful preparatory work to develop sensible analytical goal S, to write detailed research programmes and to build constituencies providing official moral and financial support for action both in Kenya and among donor countries. At the time it seemed a painfully slow and frustrating process. But reflecting now upon those years, I think we all expected that the changes in public perception, which were needed to legitimize our approach and allow the Project to be born, would happen much too quickly. The work was comprehensive. Data on commercial supply was careful l y calculated with offici a1 s from the Ministry of Energy and the Central Bureau of Statistics. Commercial demand data was more difficult to obtain but East African Power and Light (EAPL) and the oil companies gave valuable help and allowed access to sales figures. Important demand information was a1 so provided by parastatal corporations and the larger private consumers. It was, however, the problem of obtaining good data on supply and demand in the non-commercial energy sector that concerned the research team. From the beginning of the analysis, the research team were preoccupied with issues of non-commercial energy. Although there were preliminary and conflicting estimates of fuelwood's contribution to the total energy balance of Kenya, it was clear that it was the significant resource. The national demand surveys for rural and urban, households and informal industry, largely conducted with the Central Bureau of Statistics, were a major effort. They allowed an accurate picture to be drawn of end-use consumption patterns across different social classes. This process of data collection and analysis was supported by twelve detailed vill age-level case studies which provided an understanding of fuel procurement and consumption within the household economy for every ecological zone. Much detailed work was undertaken to analyse all aspects of non-commerci a1 supply. The Kenya Range1 and Ecological Monitoring Unit (KREMU) and the Department of Forestry of the University of Nairobi provided strong support in remote sensing, photo interpretation and mensuration exercises. Within the Project, the analysis of non-commercial supply, like the analysis of non-commercial demand, was a departure from the usual perfunctory treatment of traditional fuel S: it a1 lowed a comprehensive analysis of the dominant energy sector in Kenya. It a1 so a1 lowed analysis to be performed on associated problems such as soil erosion. All this work produced a snapshot of Kenya's energy balance for 1980. The problem, however, was to convert this static picture into one moving forward with time. The Central Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Economic Development and P1 anni ng provided invaluable help in discussions of demography and growth targets respective1y. The Ministry of Agricul ture gave assistance in outlining the implications of the Government of Kenya's food policy. It was, however, the Ministry of Energy that encouraged the team to build the end-use energy accounting system into a p01icy tool for analysis and planning of programmatic options. This volume contains a synthesis of that analysis, a synthesis that has permitted the development of an energy policy in Kenya. But the impact of the work goes far beyond questions of wood and energy not l east because it focuses development initiative back on the high potential land. Work did not end with the production of the policy analysis. Detailed consideration was given to the costs and benefits of the programmatic options. A series of interventions was proposed, adopted and is currently being implemented. In particular, the work on agroforestry is a significant departure which holds great hope for the future. The importance of agroforestry to integrated energy p1 anning in developing countries cannot be over-emphasised. In retrospect, many of the broad conclusions, which are applicable to other African countries, seem commonplace. These conclusions, however, mark a significant shift from the accepted wisdom of energy planning and suggest: (a) that if terms of trade between developed and developing countries continue to stagnate there will be little capital available to increase the proportion of commercial energy in the national energy budget. Consequently, biomass utilization will increase in absolute terms and, in some cases, re1ative terms; (b) since fuelwood is the most important biomass energy source, increasing pressure will be placed on it by a rising population. Consequently, there will be increased cutting of standing stocks of wood because annual yields are insufficient to support demand; (c) that given the accelerated urban demand for charcoal as a resui t of rapid urbanization, accelerating wood removal will occur as charcoal making often causes the complete destruction.
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