The Other Report on Chernobyl (TORCH)
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Embargoed to 11 am Central Europe time (10 am UK time) April 6, 2006 The Other Report on Chernobyl (TORCH) An independent scientific evaluation of the health-related effects of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster with critical analyses of recent IAEA/WHO reports Ian Fairlie PhD, UK David Sumner DPhil, UK With an Afterword by Professor Angelina Nyagu, Ukraine April 6, 2006 1 Acknowledgements This report was financed by Rebecca Harms, MEP, of the Greens/EFA Party in the European Parliament, the Altner-Crombacher Foundation and the Hatzfeld Foundation. The publishers are grateful in particular to Herr Günter Altner, Frau Altner and Herr Graf Hatzfeld for their support. ------ The authors thank Dr M DeCort of DG-TREN of the European Commission for permission to reproduce plates from the Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident (1998) EUR Report 16733. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. The authors also thank Dr Y Demidchik for permission to reproduce figure 4.2. The authors thank Dr K Baverstock, Professor Y Dubrova, U Fink and Dr W Neumann for their helpful comments on drafts of the report. The authors also thank Dr E Cardis, Dr GN Kelly, Dr E Lyman, Professor A Nyagu, Dr T Ruff, M Schneider, J Simmonds and others for their helpful information. They also thank Margit Göbel, Silke Malorny and Anna Turmann for their expert administrative help. Any errors, of course, remain the sole responsibility of the authors. 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements...................................................................................................................2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................5 Chapter 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................8 AIMS OF THE REPORT ..............................................................................................................8 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS ..........................................................................................................8 RADIATION AND RADIOACTIVITY ................................................................................................9 Uncertainty ........................................................................................................................9 Difficulties with Epidemiology Studies..............................................................................10 Polarised Views on Radiation Risks ................................................................................10 RECOMMENDED READING LIST ...............................................................................................12 Chapter 2. The Chernobyl Accident and Source Term ...........................................................13 THE ACCIDENT ......................................................................................................................13 SOURCE TERM ......................................................................................................................14 Reactor Inventory ............................................................................................................16 RELEASE ESTIMATES FOR MAIN NUCLIDES ..............................................................................17 Estimates for Cs-137 and I-131 .......................................................................................18 The Question of Plate-Out...............................................................................................19 ANNEX 2A: EXCERPT FROM OECD/NEA (1995).....................................................................20 ANNEX 2B. ORIGINAL TABLE REPRODUCED FROM SICH (1996)..................................................21 ANNEX 2C. DERIVATION OF CS-137 AND I-131 SOURCE TERMS ................................................22 Chapter 3. Dispersion and Deposition of Chernobyl Fallout ...................................................24 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................24 DEPOSITION DENSITY MEASUREMENTS ...................................................................................25 Official Reactions.............................................................................................................31 CS-137 FROM TEST BOMB FALLOUT .......................................................................................31 CONTAMINATION LEVELS - WHAT DO THEY MEAN?....................................................................33 CS-137 CONTAMINATION .......................................................................................................35 EFFECTS THROUGHOUT EUROPE ............................................................................................36 CONTINUING HIGH LEVELS OF CONTAMINATION........................................................................37 RESTRICTED REPORTING BY UNSCEAR (2000) AND IAEA/WHO (2005A, 2005B) ...................38 ANNEX 3A. CHERNOBYL CONTAMINATION BY AREA IN EACH COUNTRY ........................................40 ANNEX 3B. FUTURE EFFECTS FROM CHERNOBYL.....................................................................41 Chapter 4. Health Effects Resulting from the Chernobyl Accident..........................................42 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................42 (1) THYROID CANCER ............................................................................................................43 How many more thyroid cancers can we expect?............................................................45 Thyroid cancer in adults...................................................................................................46 3 Thyroid cancers outside Belarus, Ukraine and Russia ....................................................47 (2) LEUKAEMIA ......................................................................................................................48 Leukaemia in cleanup workers ........................................................................................48 Leukaemia in residents of contaminated areas ...............................................................49 Leukaemia in other European countries ..........................................................................49 (3) OTHER SOLID CANCERS ....................................................................................................51 Cancers in cleanup workers ............................................................................................51 Breast cancer in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia ................................................................51 Bladder and Kidney Cancer.............................................................................................52 Cancer in other European countries ................................................................................52 (4) NON-CANCER EFFECTS .....................................................................................................52 (a) Cataract Induction ......................................................................................................53 (b) Cardiovascular diseases ............................................................................................53 (5) HERITABLE EFFECTS.........................................................................................................54 (6) MENTAL HEALTH AND PSYCHOSOCIAL EFFECTS ..................................................................54 ANNEX 4. RADIATION DOSE UNITS ..........................................................................................56 Chapter 5. Collective Doses ...................................................................................................57 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................57 A. Collective Dose Estimates for Belarus, Ukraine and Russia .......................................58 B. Collective Doses in the Rest of Europe.......................................................................59 C. Collective Doses in the Rest of the World (excluding the whole of Europe)................59 D. Global Collective Doses..............................................................................................60 COLLECTIVE DOSES FROM LONG-LIVED NUCLIDES...................................................................61 COMPARISON WITH OTHER RELEASES .....................................................................................61 ANNEX 5A. BENNETT’S STUDY................................................................................................62 ANNEX 5B. COLLECTIVE DOSE ESTIMATES IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES........................................63 Chapter 6. Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths..........................................................................64 PREDICTIONS FOR BELARUS, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA .................................................................64 GLOBAL PREDICTIONS OF EXCESS CANCER DEATHS ................................................................64 Radiation Risk Estimates and DDREFs...........................................................................65 Inappropriate Comparisons with Background Radiation..................................................66