Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203

Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 9, 2013

CUCCINELLI, McAULIFFE TIED AS GOV RACE BEGINS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; STATE LEADERS, LEGISLATORS GET POSITIVE GRADES

Republican State Attorney General and Democrat Terry McAuliffe are in a dead heat in their race to be Virginia’s next governor, even if Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling runs as an independent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, gets 40 percent to 39 percent for Cuccinelli, with one in five voters saying they are undecided. That compares to McAuliffe’s 41 – 37 percent margin in a November 14 matchup by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. If Republican Bolling were to run as an independent, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli would get 34 percent each and Bolling would garner 13 percent. The three-way choice was not offered in November. None of the three candidates is well-known to Virginia registered voters. Cuccinelli is the best known of the lot with 33 percent holding a favorable opinion, to 25 percent unfavorable and 41 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. For Bolling, who has held statewide office for seven years, 72 percent don’t know enough to form an opinion. For McAuliffe, who ran for governor four years ago, 61 percent haven’t formed an opinion. “While all three candidates for governor have run statewide previously, voter memories are short and they are little-known to Virginia voters,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It goes without saying that with this relatively low level of voter recognition it will be some time before the shape of the race becomes clear. What is clear is that as an independent Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling faces a pretty stiff uphill climb should he decide to run as an independent.” -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/January 9, 2013 – page 2 “Logic tells us that if Bolling should run for governor as an independent, he would likely take more votes from fellow Republican Cuccinelli than from Democrat McAuliffe, but at this point the data indicates he would take equally from both major party candidates,” Brown added. In a head to head match between Cuccinelli and McAuliffe voters so far break predictably. The Republican has a 47 – 35 percent lead among men, while the Democrat holds a 45 – 32 percent margin among women. Cuccinelli carries Republicans 85 – 3 percent and independent voters 38 – 29 percent, while McAuliffe wins Democrats 85 – 3 percent. Cuccinelli carries white voters 49 – 31 percent, while McAuliffe wins blacks 72 – 6 percent. “With these relatively low levels of familiarity, the candidate who is best able to define himself and his opponent or opponents negatively is likely to become the Old Dominion’s next governor. That would make it likely that Virginia television viewers in the coming months will see a heavy dose of negative television ads from the campaigns,” said Brown. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell gets good grades. He has a healthy 45 – 23 percent favorable/unfavorable rating and a 54 – 27 percent job approval rating, an impressive 2-1 ratio. Cuccinelli gets a 48 – 27 percent approval rating for his job performance as attorney general, compared to Bolling’s 40 – 16 percent rating for his work as lieutenant governor. The state’s U.S. senators, Mark Warner and , also score well. Warner, who has for some time gotten the highest performance scores of any Virginia politician, remains high with a 59 – 27 percent job approval rating. Kaine, just sworn in this month, has a 48 – 30 percent rating. Even the State Legislature gets a positive job rating from Virginia voters, 43 – 39 percent. From January 4 – 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,134 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

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1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

McAuliffe 40% 3% 85% 29% 35% 45% 31% 72% Cuccinelli 39 85 3 38 47 32 49 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 - DK/NA 18 11 11 28 14 21 16 22

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No

McAuliffe 43% 25% 23% 22% 27% 35% 11% 33% Cuccinelli 42 53 57 55 56 42 67 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 4 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 18 17 18 11 20 18 16

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS...... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

McAuliffe 46% 37% 45% 38% 36% 44% 37% 41% 40% Cuccinelli 35 42 31 44 45 28 42 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 19 19 16 16 23 17 15 18

TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat and Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2012

McAuliffe 40 41 Cuccinelli 39 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 18 21

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2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, and Bill Bolling running as an independent, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

McAuliffe 34% 2% 77% 22% 30% 38% 26% 66% Cuccinelli 34 76 4 31 41 27 41 7 Bolling 13 10 9 19 14 12 14 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 18 13 9 26 13 22 18 16

WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No

McAuliffe 35% 21% 20% 18% 23% 29% 10% 26% Cuccinelli 35 44 49 47 47 35 56 40 Bolling 15 13 11 15 16 12 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 4 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 14 20 19 15 12 23 21 17

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS...... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

McAuliffe 39% 32% 39% 32% 32% 39% 29% 35% 36% Cuccinelli 31 36 26 40 40 26 36 36 32 Bolling 12 13 13 14 11 14 16 10 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 ------WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - - 2 1 - 1 DK/NA 17 18 19 14 17 18 18 17 18

3. Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 23% 5% 42% 20% 23% 22% 19% 38% Unfavorable 16 28 5 16 22 11 19 1 Hvn't hrd enough 61 67 53 63 54 66 61 61 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 -

TREND: Is your opinion of Terry McAuliffe favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2012

Favorable 23 17 Unfavorable 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 61 68 REFUSED 1 1

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4. Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 33% 64% 8% 33% 40% 26% 38% 12% Unfavorable 25 5 40 27 26 24 24 26 Hvn't hrd enough 41 31 49 39 32 48 36 56 REFUSED 2 - 3 1 2 2 2 5

TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Cuccinelli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2012

Favorable 33 29 Unfavorable 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 41 45 REFUSED 2 2

5. Is your opinion of Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 18% 21% 10% 23% 22% 14% 21% 8% Unfavorable 9 6 10 9 10 8 7 12 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 77 67 66 78 71 78 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 2 1 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Bolling favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jan 09 Nov 14 2013 2012

Favorable 18 20 Unfavorable 9 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 70 REFUSED 1 1

6. Is your opinion of Bob McDonnell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Favorable 45% 70% 25% 45% 51% 39% 50% 21% Unfavorable 23 7 38 23 22 25 22 30 Hvn't hrd enough 30 23 34 29 25 34 26 46 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 3 2 2 4

TREND: Is your opinion of Bob McDonnell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jan 09 Nov 15 Jun 07 2013 2012 2012

Favorable 45 42 39 Unfavorable 23 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 30 34 35 REFUSED 2 2 2

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7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 54% 76% 36% 58% 58% 50% 59% 33% Disapprove 27 11 40 26 28 26 24 37 DK/NA 19 14 24 15 14 24 17 30

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 54% 51% 53% 57% 54% 54% 53% Disapprove 28 29 28 21 26 29 26 DK/NA 18 20 19 22 20 18 21

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 53% Mar 2012, Jun 2012)

APPROVE...... High Low Jan 09 Nov 15 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Oct 12 Nov 15 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012*

Approve 54 53 55 53 53 62 53 Disapprove 27 26 29 30 32 22 26 DK/NA 19 20 17 17 14 16 20

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 43% 58% 31% 43% 47% 39% 43% 39% Disapprove 39 25 48 42 38 39 39 39 DK/NA 19 17 21 15 15 22 17 22

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 46% 44% 40% 41% 44% 42% 43% Disapprove 36 39 42 38 42 35 42 DK/NA 18 17 18 22 14 24 15

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*High also 48% Jun 2011)

APPROVE...... High Low Jan 09 Nov 15 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Sep 14 Mar 21 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011* 2012

Approve 43 44 41 41 38 48 38 Disapprove 39 35 41 44 47 34 47 DK/NA 19 21 18 16 15 18 15

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9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 59% 44% 77% 58% 59% 59% 56% 72% Disapprove 27 40 9 31 31 24 31 13 DK/NA 13 16 14 11 10 17 13 15

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 65% 61% 57% 51% 61% 63% 53% Disapprove 21 25 30 35 26 23 34 DK/NA 14 14 13 14 14 14 12

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 64% Sep 2011, **Low also 57% Jun 2011)

APPROVE...... High Low Jan 09 Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Feb 09 Jul 18 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012* 2012**

Approve 59 60 57 60 62 64 57 Disapprove 27 25 24 21 23 22 24 DK/NA 13 16 19 19 16 14 19

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 48% 24% 79% 40% 44% 52% 39% 77% Disapprove 30 51 6 36 36 25 36 9 DK/NA 22 25 15 23 20 24 25 14

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 52% 57% 45% 37% 56% 49% 42% Disapprove 24 22 35 37 26 27 37 DK/NA 24 20 20 26 18 24 21

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 40% 49% 36% 40% 44% 36% 40% 40% Disapprove 16 13 19 16 18 15 16 21 DK/NA 44 38 45 44 37 50 44 39

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 34% 46% 43% 35% 45% 39% 36% Disapprove 17 10 18 19 16 14 21 DK/NA 49 44 39 46 39 47 43

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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Bolling is handling his job as Lieutenant Governor? (*Low also 35% Oct 2011)

APPROVE...... High Low Jan 09 Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Jan 09 Dec 22 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2011*

Approve 40 38 36 36 36 40 35 Disapprove 16 15 19 21 21 16 18 DK/NA 44 47 45 44 43 44 46

13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk

Approve 48% 77% 26% 45% 55% 41% 51% 36% Disapprove 27 7 43 33 28 26 26 34 DK/NA 25 16 32 22 17 32 23 30

East/ West/ AREA...... North SthEst Rchmnd Shndh Urban Suburb Rural

Approve 41% 48% 51% 52% 52% 44% 50% Disapprove 32 25 28 20 26 29 26 DK/NA 27 26 21 28 23 26 24

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ken Cuccinelli is handling his job as Virginia Attorney General?

APPROVE...... High Low Jan 09 Nov 14 Jul 18 Jun 06 Mar 21 Jun 29 Nov 14 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2012

Approve 48 43 44 46 45 49 43 Disapprove 27 29 31 29 32 31 29 DK/NA 25 28 25 25 23 20 28

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