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BGL Banking Report

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BGL Banking Report BGL Banking Report Getting banks to lend again Contents 1 Executive Summary 4 Research Analysts 2 Global Banking Impulses and How They Will Affect Nigeria 6 3 Outlook for the Industry 9 Funso Oke 4 Regulatory Intervention in the Financial Crisis 12 [email protected] 5 Nigerian Banking Sector 15 6 Regulatory Interventions to Address the Financial Crisis in Nigeria 21 Femi Ademola 6.1 Phase 1: Prevent Market Collapse 21 [email protected] 6.2 Phase 2: Renew Confidence in the Financial Sector 22 7 Post-crisis Characteristics of the Banking Sector: Vincent Nwani Strengths and Challenges 25 [email protected] 8 Getting Banks to Lend Again 29 9 Key Success Factors in Nigeria Banking Sector 31 Dare Daramola 10 Key Risks for Nigerian Banks 39 [email protected] 11 Investment Opportunities: Their Drivers and Competitive Positioning 41 Oritsejimi Ogbobine 12 Company Profiles: Group A 44 [email protected] 12.1 Access Bank Plc 45 12.2 Citibank Limited 53 12.3 Diamond Bank 61 Antoinette Uwumarogie 12.4 Ecobank Nigeria Plc 69 [email protected] 12.5 Fidelity Bank Plc 77 12.6 First Bank of Nigeria Plc 86 Uwa Osadiaye 12.7 First City Monument Bank Plc 97 [email protected] 12.8 Guaranty Trust Bank Plc 106 12.9 Skye Bank Plc 114 Patience Ololo 12.10 Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc 123 [email protected] 12.11 Standard Chartered Bank Plc 132 12.12 Sterling Bank Plc 141 12.13 United Bank for Africa Plc 149 12.14 Zenith Bank Plc 158 13 Company Profiles: Group B 166 Production Team 13.1 Afribank Plc 167 Flora Fabyan 13.2 Bank PHB Plc 176 13.3 Equitorial Trust Bank Plc 184 Yvonne Edozien 13.4 Finbank Plc 191 13.5 Intercontinental Bank Plc 199 Usman Imanah 13.6 Oceanic Bank Plc 207 Titilayomi Fakorede 13.7 Spring Bank Plc 216 13.8 Union Bank of Nigeria Plc 220 13.9 Unity Bank Plc 229 13.10 Wema Bank Plc 238 14 Appendix 246 14.1 Regulatory Interventions in Some Other Jurisdictions 247 14.1.1 United States of America 247 14.1.2 United Kingdom 250 14.1.3 European Union 253 14.1.4 Asian - China 258 14.1.5 Africa 259 14.1.6 South Africa 261 Executive Summary Background Despite the identified The Nigerian banking industry has been strained by the detoriorating quality of challenges, Nigerian its credit assets as a result of the significant dip in equity market indices, global oil banks portend attractive prices and the sudden depreciation of the naira against global currencies. The CBN’s opportunities for investors. Governor, in his 14th August 2009 intervention speech, identified the industry’s sig- nificant exposure to the oil and gas and capital market sectors as the major causes of the liquidity constraints that several banks were experiencing. Indications of the ‘crisis’ became evident in the interbank market where activities diminished as banks responded to the perceived risk of lending to each other. Profits and returns suffered as a result of huge provisioning, while shareholder’s equity was haemorhaged. The development has created liquidity and credit shortages and a crisis of confidence in the nation’s financial system. The removal of the management of eight banks by the CBN was meant to bring sanity and return confidence to the banks and the banking sector in general. The injection of capital is expected to ease the liquid- ity squeeze and enable banks resume lending. Despite the identified challenges, Nigerian banks portend attractive opportunities for investors. Global developments Table 1: Summary of Rating and The effect of the current financial crisis is not limited to Nigeria and other devel- Estimates oping countries. Globally, banks are facing increase in non-performing loans and ReportDate 04 February 2010 historical growth in loan loss provisioning. As experienced in Nigeria, banks globally Current DDM are experiencing a decline in returns and profitability. Return on equity of hitherto Bank Price Valuation Remark high performing banks has declined from an average of 26% between 2000 and Access Bank 9.60 10.88 N 2007 to 4% in 2009. However, the economic bailout by different countries provide Diamond Bank 9.75 10.75 N the banks with cash and capital; hence the need to strengthen themselves for Ecobank 7.07 9.86 O future success. FidelityBank 2.80 4.00 U First Bank 15.96 17.46 N In terms of outlook for banks, analysts globally seem to agree on the factors to FCMB 9.45 11.85 U consider. From a survey conducted in 2009, Deloitte identified the top consider- GTBank 18.50 19.72 N ations for banks as: globalise and consolidate; reconnect with customer; promote Skye Bank 8.09 6.73 O Stanbic IBTC 9.43 9.73 N compliance; better manage risk and adapt to demographic shifts. Accenture, in Sterling Bank 1.63 3.66 U its state year 2009 report on global banking outlook noted that the post-crisis UBA 14.40 15.35 N operating and business model changes will be pricing optimisation, effective Zenith Bank 16.25 19.57 N risk management, effective customer management, strategic cost reduction and O: Overvalued, N: Neutral, inorganic growth. BGL opined that the industry’s key success factors will include U: Undervalued customer service, risk management, geographical spread, effective cost control Source: BGL Research Estimates measures and balance sheet size. Nigerian banking industry faces several challenges By far the biggest challenge for bank regulators in Nigeria is how to get the banks to lend again. However other regulatory challenges include entrenching effective and efficient risk management framework, good corporate governance, transpar- 4 BGL Banking Report | January 2010 ency in reporting and managing the fallout of the banking sector reform so as to There are attractive ensure a safe and sound financial system. For the operators, challenges include opportunities for investing in infrastructural deficiency, unreliable social data, human capital deficiency, corporate the energy sector, agriculture, governance issues and regulatory interventions. solid minerals, construction and real estate and even the There are attractive opportunities for banks’ investment capital market. Interestingly, part of the solution to the identified challenges lies with the banks themselves. Infrastructure challenges would be resolved if only the banks would in- vest in infrastructure development and the human capital deficiencies will succumb to sufficient investment in the education sector. There are attractive opportunities for investing in the energy sector, agriculture, solid minerals, construction and real estate and even the capital market. Getting banks to lend again While it is agreed that banks in Nigeria need to start lending again, the approach To get banks to resume to doing this is still a contentious issue. Some analysts suggest that government lending again, the common should take up equity first and then buy toxic assets from the banks, while others opinion is that the financial propose only the buying of toxic assets through the proposed Asset Management bailout is not enough and Company (AMC). Each of the approaches has issues that need to be addressed like therefore may not achieve the for example, the valuation method for the toxic assets and the number of banks in intended result. which government would take up equity; however the common opinion is that the financial bailout by itself is not enough and therefore may not give the intended result. BGL Banking Report | January 2010 5 Global Banking Impulses and How They Will Affect Nigeria Table 2: Global Banks’ Assets In 2008, a number of large U.S. based financial institutions either failed or came Country Bank Assets close to failure. This was a direct result of losses incurred related to risky home US$(bn) mortgages and other loans held by these firms, as well as other high-risk transac- EU 61,999.8 tions. These firms include investment bankers Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, United States 13,301.5 along with mortgage lenders Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Countrywide Financial, United Kingdom 12,283.8 Germany 11,840.6 Indymac Bank and insurance giant American International Group (AIG). Merrill France 11,549.7 Lynch agreed to be purchased by Bank of America in order to avoid a fate similar China 9,139.3 to Lehman Brothers. There has also been speculation about the future viability of Italy 5,532.1 Spain 4,836.2 other financial institutions. Netherlands 3,352.9 Switzerland 3,100.7 Despite these challenges, there are attractive growth opportunities for industry Australia 2,353.2 players and investing opportunities for potential investors. The economic bailout Ireland 2,137.0 Belgium 2,025.3 programmes initiated by different countries have left the banks flush with cash Brazil 1,690.0 and capital; the banks therefore need to position themselves for future success. South Korea 1,622.4 For banks to compete favourably they need to cope with tighter regulation, new Austria 1,604.2 markets, demanding customers, efficiency, and need to control reputational and Luxembourg 1,397.5 Denmark 1,265.9 operational risks. Russia 1,014.4 India 929.2 Increased capital and huge provisioning are putting pressure on banks’ returns with Sweden 867.0 Portugal 675.5 Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) declining significantly in 2008 Greece 622.1 from the impressive ratios recorded since the early 2000s. In the US for example, Norway 587.3 ROE which averaged 12.2% between 2003 and 2007 declined to 3.3% in 2008; ROA Finland 544.9 declined from 1.3% in 2006 to 0.3% in 2008. This decline is further corroborated by Turkey 496.5 Singapore 495.5 analysts at Accenture in the 2009 report on banking outlook that “ROE has plum- Poland 373.5 meted from about 26% for banks Accenture classified as high performers in 2007 South Africa 368.3 to about 4% in 2009”.
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