Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2
Part 2 Seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning of the provinces of Gilan and Zanjan
LjupcoR. Jordanovski, International Consultant Professor, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, University "St. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
Hamid R. Ramazi, National Consultant Geological Survey, Tehran
Zoran V. Milutinovic, International Consultant Professor, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, University "St. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
Jakim T. Petrovski, Chief Technical Advisor Professor, Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, University "St. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
Tehran - Skopje, September 1998
*XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV
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
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
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
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
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
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
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Â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
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
7DEOH 0DMRUKLVWRULFDOHDUWKTXDNHVLQ1RUWKHUQ,UDQEHIRUH \HDUV
'DWH 7LPH (SLFHQWHU + 0 , 6RXUFH <0'+061(NP
DPEU
DPEU$PEUDVH\VDQG0HOOYLOH 7KHDVVLJQHG]HURYDOXHVWRVRPHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHHDUWKTXDNHVPHDQWKDWWKHUHZHUHQRGDWDIRUGHULYLQJWKHFRQFOXVLRQ
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 49 00 50 00
Ardebil
Talesh 38 38 00 00 Caspian Sea 030km
Bandar Anzali
Someh Sara Roudsar Astaneh Fuman Rasht Lahijan Langarud
37 37 00 00 Abbar Tonekabon Rudbar
Zanjan Manjil Loshan
Soltanieh Explanations: Earthquake magnitudes: Gazvin M < 3.0 M=3.0-<4.0 Abhar M=4.0-<5.0 36 36 00 M=5.0-<6.0 00
Karaj M=6.0-<7.0 Eshtehard
M > 7.0
Symbols: City Town Operational strong motion instruments 49 00 50 00
Fig. 2.1. Epicentral map of the earthquakes
UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 43 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
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
81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 49 00 50 00
Ardebil
Talesh 38 38 00 00 L15 Caspian Sea L16 030km
Bandar Anzali L12 Someh Sara Rasht Roudsar Fuman Astaneh R2 L11a Lahijan L14 Langarud L9 L11 37 37 00 Abbar 00
Tonekabon L13 Rudbar Manjil L7 Zanjan R1
Loshan L4 L5 L8
Soltanieh R3 L6 Gazvin
Abhar
36 36 00 Explanations: 00 Seismic sources: Eshtehard Karaj R2 Area source R4
Line source of ac- L2 tive and potentially active faults
Symbols: City Town Operational strong motion instruments 50 00 49 00
Fig. 2.2. Source model for seismic hazard analysis in Gilan and Zanjan provinces
UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 45 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW
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uidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 49 00 50 00 Ardebil Talesh 38 38 00 00 Zone 8 Caspian Sea 030km Bandar Anzali Zone 7 Someh Sara Roudsar Zone 2 Astaneh Fuman Rasht Lahijan Langarud Zone 6 37 37 00 00 Abbar Tonekabon Rudbar Zone 1 Zanjan Manjil Zone 5 Loshan Soltanieh Zone 4 Explanations: Zone 3 Gazvin Earthquake magnitudes: Abhar M < 3.0 M=3.0-<4.0 36 36 00 M=4.0-<5.0 00 M=5.0-<6.0 Zone 9 Eshtehard Karaj M=6.0-<7.0 M > 7.0 Symbols: Boundary of zones Zone 5 Notation of zones 49 00 50 00 Fig. 2.3. Division of the considered region in the seismic zones UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 47 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH VHLVPLF]RQH VHLVPLF]RQH )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH VHLVPLF]RQH VHLVPLF]RQH )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH VHLVPLF]RQH VHLVPLF]RQH 81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW 0DJQLWXGHUHFXUUHQFHFXUYHVIRUWKH VRXUFHV )LQDOGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKH.DQGIRUHDFKVRXUFH ZDV GRQH E\ FRQVLGHULQJ DFWLYLW\ RI WKH SDUWLFXODU VRXUFH ZLWK LQ WKH ]RQH %DVLFDOO\ WKH ZHLJKWLQJ IDFWRUVKDYHEHHQDVVLJQWRHDFKVRXUFHZLWKLQWKH JLYHQ]RQHEDVHGRQWKHWHFWRQLFVDQGVHLVPRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHIDXOWDVZHOODVHVWLPDWHGSR WHQWLDORI WKH IXWXUH DFWLYLW\ 0D[LPXP PDJQLWXGHV WKDWFRXOGEHJHQHUDWHGE\WKHVRXUFHVZHUHHVWL PDWHGEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJFRQVLGHUDWLRQV 5HODWLRQ EHWZHHQ OHQJWK RI WKH IDXOWLQJ UXSWXULQJ )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH DQGPDJQLWXGHRIWKHDVVRFLDWHGHDUWKTXDNHHTXD VHLVPLF]RQH WLRQ 5DPD]L 0 ORJ / NP 6SHFLDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVKDGEHHQGHYRWHG WRWKH=RQHZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKH SDUWLFLSDWLRQIDFWRUV=RQHFRQVLVWVRIOLQHVRXUFHV / /DQG/D6HYHUDOVHWVRIWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQ IDFWRUVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGDQGXVHG+RZHYHULWZDV VWURQJO\ UHFRPPHQGHG E\ WKH H[SHUWV WKDW HQWLUH DFWLYLW\RIWKH]RQHVKRXOGEHDVVLJQHGWRWKHVRXUFH /D7KHUHZHUHWZRVXSSRUWLQJDUJXPHQWV D WKH IDFWWKDWVRXUFH/DZDVQRWDFWLYHIRUORQJHUWLPH DQG E WKHIDFWWKDWWKHFLW\RI5DVKWLVYHU\FORVH 7DEOH /LVWRIWKHVHLVPLFVRXUFHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJUH JUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQWVSDUWLFLSDWLRQIDFWRUVDQG XSSHUFXWRIIPDJQLWXGHV )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQIRUWKH VHLVPLF]RQH =RQH 6RXUFH . 0PD[ 5 5 / / 5 / / / / / / / /D / / / )LJ 0DJQLWXGHUHFFXUHQFHUHODWLRQDVVRFLDWHG 5 ZLWKEDFNJURXQGVHLVPLFLW\ 0 81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW WRWKHVRXUFH7KHFLW\RI5DVKWZDVFRQVLGHUHGDV ,QDPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPWKHDWWHQXDWLRQODZRIWKH DZRUNLQJH[DPSOHIRUGHPRQVWUDWLRQRIWKHVHLVPLF 3*$LVH[SUHVVHGDVIROORZV ]RQDWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\7KHUHIRUHWKHZRUVWSRVVLEOH E 0 E VFHQDULRRIWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIWKHODUJHHDUWKTXDNHV DPD[ E H 5 E H ZDVDQDO\]HGDVDOLPLWHGFDVH ZKHUH DPD[ LVWKHSHDNJURXQGDFFHOHUDWLRQ 3*$ 7DEOHVKRZVDOOUHOHYDQWSDUDPHWHUVIRUHDFK 0 LVWKHPDJQLWXGH VRXUFHWRJHWKHUZLWKFRUUHVSRQGLQJVHLVPLF]RQH EE EE DUHUHJUHVVLRQFRQVWDQWV $WWHQXDWLRQUHODWLRQVKLSV 0 LV D UDQGRP YDULDEOH ZKLFK WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQWWKHGLVSHUVLRQEHWZHHQWKHH[ $VLWLVNQRZQVHLVPLFKD]DUGLVGHILQHGDVWKHSURE SHULPHQWDO GDWD DQG FRPSXWHG YDOXHV DELOLW\RI QRQ H[FHHGLQJFHUWDLQOHYHORIWKHKD]DUG XVLQJWKHDERYHIRUPXOD SDUDPHWHUV GXULQJ D JLYHQ WLPH SHULRG 8VXDOO\ ,WPXVWEHSRLQWHGRXWWKDWDFFXUDF\RIWKHHTXDWLRQ KD]DUG SDUDPHWHUV DUH RQH RI WKH JURXQG PRWLRQ LVQRWDOZD\VVDWLVIDFWRU\EXWLQWKHILUVWDSSUR[L FKDUDFWHULVWLFVVXFKDV SHDNJURXQGDFFHOHUDWLRQ PDWLRQLWVKRZVJOREDOOHYHORIWKH3*$GHFUHDVLQJ GXUDWLRQRIWKHJURXQGVKDNLQJUHVSRQVHVSHFWUXP )RUWKHVWDWLVWLFDOO\DFFXUDWHGHULYDWLRQRIWKHHTXD HWFZKLFKUHSUHVHQWLQGLUHFWRULQGLUHFWZD\LQGXFHG WLRQLWLVUHTXLUHGODUJHDPRXQWRIVWURQJPRWLRQGDWD VHLVPLFHQHUJ\LQWRWKHVWUXFWXUH3UHVHQWO\LQPRVW ZKLFKDUHSUHVHQWO\DYDLODEOHRQO\LQIHZFRXQWULHV GHVLJQ FRGHV LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV SHDN JURXQG DQGUHJLRQVLQWKHZRUOG DFFHOHUDWLRQ 3*$ LVXVHGDVDKD]DUGSDUDPHWHU IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI DVHLVPLF GHVLJQ ZKLFK LV DOVR VHOHFWHGIRUWKHKD]DUGDQDO\VLVLQWKLVSURMHFW 7DEOH 3DUDPHWHUVEEEDQGEDFFRUGLQJWR(T RIWKHVHOHFWHG3*$DWWHQXDWLRQUHODWLRQV ,QRUGHUWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHHIIHFWVIURPDOOHDUWKTXDNH VRXUFHVVXUURXQGLQJWKHJLYHQVLWHWKHDWWHQXDWLRQ E E E E ODZRI3*$ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHHDUWKTXDNHUHOHDVHG HQHUJ\ PDJQLWXGH DQGGLVWDQFHIURPWKHK\SRFHQ 'DPHVDQG0RRUH WHUKDVWREHNQRZQ 3*$LVJLYHQLQXQLWVFPVV $OWKRXJKWKHVWURQJPRWLRQQHWZRUNLQ,UDQKDYHUH FRUGHGRYHUHDUWKTXDNHVLQWKHSDVW\HDUV ZHKDYHQRWEHHQDEOHWRKDYHDFFHVVWRWKRVHGDWD DQGSHUIRUPDWWHQXDWLRQDQDO\VLVRIWKH3*$ZKLFK ZLOOFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHUHJLRQDOJHRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQV +RZHYHUEDVHGRQWKHDYDLODEOH3*$GDWDIURPWKH 0DQMLOHDUWKTXDNHWZRZRUOGSXEOLVKHGDWWHQXDWLRQ UHODWLRQVKDYHEHHQVHOHFWHGDVWKHSRVVLEOHFKRLFH 2QHLV(VWHYD9LOODYHUGHDWWHQXDWLRQORZDQGVHF RQGLVSXEOLVKHGE\WKH'DPHVDQG0RRUH 'RQRYDQ $IWHU DQDO\]LQJ WKH GDPDJH DQG UHFRUGHG GDWD DIWHU WKH 0DQMLO HDUWKTXDNH WKH 'DPHV DQG 0RRUH DWWHQXDWLRQ ORZ KDV EHHQ VHOHFWHG DV WKH ILQDORQH%DVLFDOO\PDLQIDFWVWKDWVXSSRUWVWKHVH OHFWLRQZHUHWKHREVHUYHGGDPDJHV DQG UHFRUGHG 3*$ GXULQJ 0DQMLO HDUWKTXDNH ZKLFK VKRZV UDSLG )LJ &RPSDULVRQRIWKH'DPHVDQG0RRUH3*$DW DWWHQXDWLRQ ZLWK WKH GLVWDQFH IURP WKH FDXVDWLYH WHQXDWLRQODZ VROLGOLQHV ZLWK(VWHYD9LOODYHUGH IDXOWDQGODUJH3*$ VFORVHWRWKHIDXOW 3*$DWWHQXDWLRQODZ GDVKHGOLQH 81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW 6HLVPLFKD]DUGPDSV 7KHH[SHFWHGQXPEHURIWULDOV( Q LV 7KH XOWLPDWH JRDO RI WKH VHLVPLF KD]DUG DQG ULVN ( D Q S D DVVHVVPHQWLVWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHSRWHQWLDOGDQJHU H[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRI QRQ H[FHHGDQFHSUREDELOLW\ 6LQFHQFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVWKHQXPEHURIXQLWV RIWKHJLYHQVLWHSDUDPHWHU+HUHDQGDIWHUZHVKDOO WLPH \HDUV WKHQ( DQ LVDOVRDQH[SHFWHGQXPEHU UHIHUWRSHDNJURXQGDFFHOHUDWLRQ 3*$ DVWKHVLWH RI\HDUVIRUWKHILUVWH[FHHGDQFHRIDLHUHWXUQSHULRG KD]DUGSDUDPHWHU7KHUHIRUHZHVHHNWRGHWHUPLQH WKHSUREDELOLW\RI QRQ H[FHHGDQFHRIWKHJLYHQYDOXH 53 S D ) D RI3*$LQDVSHFLILFWLPHSHULRGLQIXWXUH 7KHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLV 7RFDOFXODWHWKHSUREDELOLWLHVRI QRQ H[FHHGDQFHRI WKHVSHFLILHG3*$OHYHOVLQWKHJLYHQVLWHRQHPXVW V 7 7 FRQVLGHU WKH HIIHFW RI DOO WKH VXUURXQGLQJ VHLVPLF 7KHVPDOOHUSLVWKHODUJHULVWKHVSUHDGRIWKHGLV VRXUFHV$VVXPLQJDVSDWLDOLQGHSHQGHQFHIRUHDFK WULEXWLRQ VRXUFHWKHH[FHHGDQFHSUREDELOLW\LVFRPSXWHGE\ ,WFDQEHVKRZQWKDWIRUWKHJHQHUDOSUREDELOLW\GLV ) D W ) D W WRW L WULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQI DW RIWKHLQWHURFFXUUHQFHWLPH7 DVDUDQGRPYDULDEOHWKHUHWXUQSHULRGPD\EHGH ZKHUH )L DW WKHSUREDELOLW\RIH[FHHGDQFHRIWKH3*$ OHYHOZKHQDQHDUWKTXDNHRFFXUVLQWKH ILQHGE\WKHH[SHFWHGYDOXHRIWKHUDQGRPYDULDEOH7 LWKVRXUFHGXULQJWLPHW 53 ( D7 ³ W I DW GW 6LQFHWKHUHLVRQHWRRQHPDSSLQJEHWZHHQ3*$ DQGWKHHDUWKTXDNHPDJQLWXGHWKURXJKWKHDWWHQXD 7KH53LVDYHU\FRPPRQLQSXWLQIRUPDWLRQLQWKH WLRQODZ) DW FDQEHREWDLQHGXVLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\ GHVLJQSUDFWLFH'HSHQGLQJRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHIDF PRGHOIRUWKHHDUWKTXDNHRFFXUUHQFH) DW GRHVQRW WRUVWUXFWXUHVDUHGHVLJQHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH3*$ DOZD\VKDYHFORVHIRUPH[SUHVVLRQ)RUH[DPSOHLQ WKDWKDVDJLYHQUHWXUQSHULRG7KHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKH WKHFDVHRIWKH3RLVVRQPRGHOZKHUHZHKDYHVSD 3*$ZLWKWKHJLYHQ53FDQEHSHUIRUPHGE\VROYLQJ WLDO LQGHSHQGHQFH RI WKH HDUWKTXDNH VRXUFHV WKH HTXDWLRQVRUZLWKUHVSHFWWRD H[FHHGDQFHRIWKHJLYHQ3*$YDOXHDVDUDQGRP 9HU\RIWHQWKHGHVLJQ3*$KDVWREHFDOFXODWHGIRU SURFHVVREH\V3RLVVRQODZWRRZLWKDUDWHRIH[ WKHJLYHQHFRQRPLFOLIHWLPHRIWKHVWUXFWXUHDQGWKH FHHGDQFHHTXDOWRWKHVXPRIWKHUDWHVRIH[FHHG JLYHQULVN,QWKLVFDVHWKHYDOXHRI3*$LVFDOFX DQFH RI WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ PDJQLWXGHV IRU HDFK ODWHGE\HTXDWLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\RIH[FHHGDQFHWR VRXUFH)RURWKHUPRGHOVZHKDYHWRSHUIRUPDQX WKH JLYHQ ULVN GXULQJ WKH HFRQRPLF OLIHWLPH RI WKH PHULFDOFDOFXODWLRQLQRUGHUWRDVVHVV) DW VWUXFWXUH7KLVFDQEHGRQHXVLQJWKHHTXDWLRQ ,QWKHHQJLQHHULQJSUDFWLFHWKHDYHUDJHQXPEHURI ZKHUHWLVVHWWROLIHWLPHDQG ) DW LVHTXDOWRWKH RFFXUUHQFHRIDQHYHQWLQDJLYHQWLPH UHWXUQSH JLYHQOHYHORIULVN2QFHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ3*$LV ULRG LVRIVSHFLDOLPSRUWDQFH7RGHULYHWKHH[SUHV FDOFXODWHGWKURXJKWKHHTXDWLRQWKHDVVRFLDWHG VLRQIRUWKHUHWXUQSHULRGZHFRQVWUXFWDGLFKRWRP\ 53FDQEHFDOFXODWHG IRUDFRQWLQXRXVYDULDWH)LUVWZHFRQVLGHUWKHRE %DVHG RQ WKH SUHYLRXV GLVFXVVLRQ WKH ZKROH SUR VHUYDWLRQV HTXDO WR RU ODUJHU WKDQ D FHUWDLQ ODUJH FHGXUHRIWKHVLWHVHLVPLFKD]DUGFDOFXODWLRQXVLQJ YDOXHRI3*$6HFRQGZHFRQVLGHUWKHREVHUYDWLRQ 3RLVVRQ PRGHO FDQ EH GHILQHG E\ WKH IROORZLQJ VPDOOHUWKDQWKLVYDOXH/HW VWHSV T D S D ) D )RUHDFKVRXUFH6 L 1 WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJPDJQLWXGH 0LVFDOFXODWHGZKLFKSURGXFHHTXDORUODUJHUSUHYLRXVO\ EHWKHSUREDELOLW\RID3*$ VYDOXHVPDOOHUWKDQD DVVLJQ 3*$ IRU D VLWH 7KH PDJQLWXGHV DUH REWDLQHG E\ 2EVHUYDWLRQVDUHPDGHDWUHJXODULQWHUYDOVRIWLPH DSSO\LQJDWWHQXDWLRQORZ DQGWKHH[SHULPHQWVWRSVRQFHWKHYDOXHKDVEHHQ %\ DGGLQJ DOO DQQXDO UDWHV RI WKH FDOFXODWHG PDJQLWXGHV H[FHHGHG7KHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHH[FHHGDQFHKDS WKHDQQXDOUDWH IRU WKH 3*$ FDQ EH REWDLQHG 6LQFH WKH 3RLVVRQ PRGHO LV XVHG WKHQ ) DW LV VLPSO\ H[SRQHQWLDO SHQVIRUWKHILUVWWLPHDWWULDOQREH\VWKHJHRPHWULFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ +DYLQJ ) DW DV D IXQFWLRQ RI D DQG W WKH 3*$ FDQ EH FDOFXODWHGIRUWKHJLYHQ53RUIRUWKHJLYHQSUREDELOLW\RI Q Z D Q S T H[FHHGDQFHDQGHFRQRPLFOLIH 81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ *XLGHOLQHVIRU(DUWKTXDNH'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH,3DUW 6HLVPLFKD]DUGPDSVIRUGLIIHUHQWUHWXUQ &RUUHODWLRQZLWKSHDNJURXQGDFFHOHUDWLRQ SHULRGV UHFRUGHGGXULQJWKH 0DQMLOHDUWKTXDNH DQGHVWLPDWHGKD]DUGOHYHO 7KHILQDOUHVXOWVRIWKHVHLVPLFKD]DUGDVVHVVPHQW DUHSUHVHQWHGLQWHUPVRI3*$LVROLQHVIRU 'XULQJWKH 0DQMLOHDUWKTXDNHPDQ\VWURQJPR DQG\HDUVUHWXUQSHULRGV7KHFDOFX WLRQLQVWUXPHQWVKDYHEHHQWULJJHUHGRXWRIZKLFK ODWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGXVLQJ'DPHVDQG0RRUH UHFRUGVDUHSODFHGLQWKHDIIHFWHGDUHD7KHGLV 3*$ DWWHQXDWLRQ ODZ 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ WKDW KDYH WULEXWLRQ RI WKH 3*$V IROORZV WKH H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH EHHQXWLOL]HGLVEDVHGRQ3RLVVRQPRGHO7KHVSDWLDO FDXVDWLYHIDXOW+RZHYHULQWKHHSLFHQWUDODUHDWKHUH DFWLYLW\ KDV EHHQ GLVWULEXWHG XQLIRUPO\ RYHU WKH LVQRUHFRUGH[FHSWWKHUHFRUGREWDLQHGLQWKHFLW\RI VRXUFHDUHDRUOHQJWK7KHUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ $EEDU7KLVLQVWUXPHQWVLWHLVDERXWNPIDUIURP WKH ILJXUHV WR ,Q WKH ILJXUH WKH 3*$ V WKH HSLFHQWHU EDW YHU\ QHDU WR WKH FDXVDWLYH IDXOW LVROLQHVPDSIRUWKHUHWXUQSHULRGRIWKH\HDUVLV 7KHUHFRUGHG3*$YDOXHLVDURXQGJDIWHUWKH SUHVHQWHG GHWHUPLQHG E\ 0UV 5DPD]L ZKR KDV GDWDFRUUHFWLRQ6XFKVLJQLILFDQWODUJHYDOXHOHDGV XVHGSRLQWVRXUFHPHWKRGDQG*XPEHO,,,VWDWLVWLFV WRWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDWPD\EHLQWKHHSLFHQWUDODUHD 7KHSRLQWVRXUFHPHWKRGLVFRQVLVWVRIFDOFXODWLQJ WKHLQWHQVLW\RIWKHJURXQGVKDNLQJDQGWKH3*$LV WKH3*$VSURGXFHGE\WKHRFFXUUHGHDUWKTXDNHV ODUJHWRR+RZHYHURQHVXFKUHFRUGLVQRWVXIILFLHQW 7KLVPHWKRGDVVXPHVWKDWLQWKHIXWXUHWKHHDUWK IRUPDNLQJGHILQLWHFRQFOXVLRQDQGLWLVQHHGHGPRUH TXDNHV ZLOO RFFXU LQ WKH VDPH SODFH DQG ZLWK WKH GDWDDQGGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVRIWKH$EEDUUHFRUGVLQ VDPHPDJQLWXGHDVEHIRUH2EYLRXVO\IURPWKHVWD RUGHUWRDVVHVVDQGHVWLPDWHWKH3*$YDOXHLQWKH WLVWLFDOSRLQWRIYLHZWKLVDSSURDFKLVHTXDOO\FRUUHFW YHU\HSLFHQWUDO]RQH)RUWKHWLPHEHLQJLWLVPRUH EXWLQVRPHFDVHV3*$ VYDOXHVIRUWKHJLYHQVLWH OLNHO\WRFRQVLGHUWKLVUHFRUGDVDQH[FHSWLRQ$VIDU HVSHFLDOO\LIWKHVLWHLVSODFHGQHDUWKHHSLFHQWHURI DVWKH3*$VRIWKHRWKHUUHFRUGDUHFRQFHUQHGWKH\ WKHSDVWODUJHHDUWKTXDNHDUHRYHUHVWLPDWHG7KHUH VKRZUDSLGDWWHQXDWLRQZLWKGLVWDQFHDQGV\PPHWUL IRUH IRU WKH VPDOOHU UHWXUQ SHULRGV WKH QRWLFHDEOH FDOGLVWULEXWLRQZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHFDXVDWLYHIDXOW,I GLIIHUHQFH H[LVW EHFDXVH LQ WKH FDVH RI 3RLVVRQ ZHFRQVLGHUWKDWWKH 0DQMLO HDUWKTXDNH KDYH UHWXUQ PRGHOODUJHPDJQLWXGHVKDYHODUJHUUHWXUQSHULRGV SHULRGRIWR\HDUVWKHQ WKH KD]DUG UHVXOW WKHQ\HDUV$VLWFRXOGEHVHHQIURPWKHKD]DUG VKRZV JRRG DJUHHPHQW ZLWK UHFRUGHG 3*$ )RU PDSVWKHOHYHORIWKH3*$IRUSUHVHQWHGUHWXUQSH H[DPSOH LQ WKH VLWH RI 4D]YLQ WKH UHFRUGHG 3*$ ULRGLVFRQVLGHUDEO\KLJKLIZHWDNHLQWRWKHDFFRXQW ZDV J DQG FDOFXODWHG KD]DUG LV J IRU WKH WKDWWKH3*$LVFDOFXODWHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHEDVH \HDUVDQGJIRUWKH\HDUV53V,QWKH URFN7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHORFDOJHRORJ\ FDVH RI /DKLMDQ WKH UHFRUGHG 3*$ LV J ZKLOH DUH QRW DFFRXQWHG $OVR LW PXVW EH VWUHVVHG WKDW HVWLPDWHGKD]DUGYDOXHLV JIRU\HDUVDQG YDOXHVRIWKHKD]DUGOHYHOLQWKHERUGHUSDUWRIWKH JIRUWKH\HDUV53V,QWKHIROORZLQJWDEOH FRQVLGHUHGUHJLRQUHSUHVHQWRQO\WKHHIIHFWVRIWKH WKH UHFRUGHG 3*$ IRU VRPH VLWHV DUH SUHVHQWHG DFFRXQWHGVRXUFHVDQGQRWRIWKHVRXUFHVWKDWDUH WRJHWKHUZLWKHVWLPDWHG3*$ VIRUWKHDQG SRVVLEO\FORVHWRWKHERUGHUVLWHVEXWIDUIURP WKH \HDUV5HWXUQ3HULRGV FHQWUDODUHDRIWKHLQYHVWLJDWHGUHJLRQ $VLWZDVPHQWLRQHGWKHFRUUHODWLRQH[LVWLQWKHOLPLWV )LQDOO\LQWKH)LJXUHVWRWKH3*$5HWXUQ RIWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVWKDWH[LVWLQWKHHQWLUHPHWKRGRO 3HULRG FXUYHV KDYH EHHQ SUHVHQWHG IRU WKH ODUJHU RJ\ RI WKH KD]DUG DVVHVVPHQW DQG WKHUHIRUH FDQ FLWLHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ )URP WKH JUDSKV LW FDQ EHHQ UHSUHVHQWDFFHSWDEOHPRGHOIRUIXUWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQV VHHQWKDWWKHKLJKHVWKD]DUGOHYHOH[LVWLQWKHFLWLHV RI5RRGEDUDQG0DQMLO)RUWKHVHWZRFLWLHVDFFHO 7DEOH 5HFRUGHG3*$DQG(VWLPDWHG3*$VIRUWKH DQG\HDUV5HWXUQ3HULRGV HUDWLRQ RI J KDV UHWXUQ SHULRG RI \HDUV ZKLFKLVTXLWHKLJKFRQVLGHULQJWKDWWKHORFDOVRLOLV (VWLPDWHG3*$LQJ 6LWH 5HFRUGHG3*$LQJ FRQVLVWVRIYHU\ORVHDOOXYLXP)RUWKHRWKHUFLWLHV 53 53 WKHVLWXDWLRQLVVLPLODUDOWKRXJKWKHYDOXHRI3*$LV KDOIOHVVEXWVLQFHWKHVHYDOXHVDUHZLWKUHVSHFWWR 4D]YLQ EHGURFNHYHQWXDOORFDOVRLODPSOLILFDWLRQPD\LQFUHDVH $EEDU WKHYDOXHRI3*$V /DKLMDQ 81'381&+6 +DELWDW 3URMHFW,5$ $VVLVWDQFHLQWKH,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3RVWHDUWKTXDNH5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3URJUDPPH +RXVLQJ)RXQGDWLRQRI,VODPLF5HYROXWLRQ,5,UDQ Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 Talesh 38 38 00 00 15 Caspian Sea 01020km BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara Rasht Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Lahijan Shaft Sangar Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 20 00 20 15 15 Abbar Rostam Abad 15 15 Rudbar Manjil Zanjan Loshan Soltanieh Explanations: Saeen Ghaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong motion instruments Abyek 36 36 00 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin Province limit Shal 20 20 15 15 Township limit 20 District limit BoinZahra Estehard Rural district limit 15 City Town Avaj 10 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.1. PGA isolines map for 50 years return period (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 53 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 Talesh 38 38 00 00 Caspian Sea 20 01020km BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara Rasht Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Lahijan Shaft Sangar Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 20 00 Abbar Rostam Abad Rudbar 25 Manjil Zanjan Loshan Soltanieh 20 Explanations: Saeen Ghaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong motion instruments Abyek 36 36 00 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin Province limit 15 Shal Township limit District limit BoinZahra Estehard Rural district limit City Town Avaj 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.2. PGA isolines map for 50 years return period, obtained by point source model and Gumbel III statistics (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 54 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 Talesh 38 38 00 00 20 Caspian Sea 01020km BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara 25 Rasht Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Lahijan Shaft Sangar Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 30 00 Abbar Rostam Abad Rudbar 15 25 25 15 20 20 Manjil Zanjan Loshan 30 Soltanieh 25 Explanations: Saeen Ghaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 25 20 20 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong motion instruments Abyek 36 30 36 00 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin Province limit Shal 35 10 Township limit 35 District limit 30 BoinZahra 25 20 Estehard Rural district limit 15 City Town Avaj 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.3. PGA isolines map for 100 years return period (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 55 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 25 Talesh 38 38 00 00 Caspian Sea 01020km 25 BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara Astaneh Rasht Langrood Masooleh Fuman Shaft Sangar Lahijan Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 00 Abbar RostamAbad Rudbar 45 40 35 30 25 25 20 20 30 Manjil 45 40 35 30 25 20 45 Zanjan Loshan 40 Soltanieh 35 30 Explanations: Saeen Ghaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong motion instruments Abyek 36 36 00 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin Province limit Shal 45 Township limit 40 35 30 District limit 25 BoinZahra Estehard 20 Rural district limit City Town Avaj 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.4. PGA isolines map for 200 years return period (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 56 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 35 Talesh 38 38 00 00 Caspian Sea 01020km BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara Rasht Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Shaft Sangar Lahijan Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 00 Abbar Rostam Abad Rudbar 25 25 35 35 30 30 55 40 55 45 50 Manjil 55 50 45 40 Zanjan Loshan 35 30 25 Soltanieh Explanations: SaeenGhaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong motion instruments 35 Abyek 36 36 00 40 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin 45 Shal Province limit 50 Township limit 50 45 Estehard District limit 40 BoinZahra 35 30 Rural district limit 25 City 20 Town Avaj 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.5. PGA isolines map for 500 years return period (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 57 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 00 Talesh 40 38 40 38 00 00 Caspian Sea 01020km BandarAnzali Lashtnesha Masal Someh Sara Rasht Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Lahijan Shaft Sangar Amlash Rudsar 37 Chaboksar 37 00 00 Abbar Rostam Abad Rudbar 55 50 45 Manjil 40 55 35 Loshan Zanjan 50 45 40 30 35 30 Soltanieh Explanations: SaeenGhaleh Gazvin Expected PGA's: Hidej Alvand 20 PGA isolines 10% g 15 PGA isolinesGheydar 5% g Abhar Operational strong 40 motion instruments Abyek 36 45 36 00 00 Symbols: Esfarvarin 50 Province limit Shal Township limit District limit BoinZahra Estehard Rural district limit City Town Avaj 50 00 49 00 Fig 3.6. PGA isolines map for 1,000 years return period (in%ofg) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 58 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran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uidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 49 49 50 30 45 37 00 30 Explanations: Caspian Sea Faults: 0 5 10 km Trust faults Bandar Kiashahr Reverse faults Inferred faults 37 Pleistocene beach 30 deposits of Rasht - Lahijan Sefidrud river Saranbar Khomam Symbols: Astaneh 37 Rivers 15 Lakes Luleman City Sefidrud Delta Khazar fault Lahijan Town Rasht 50 Siahkal 00 Someh Sara Khazar fault (inferred) Sangar 37 15 Fuman Shaft 37 00 49 15 Astara fault Saravan Sefidrud river Tarikrud Dorfak fault 37 00 RostamAbad Deylaman fault Jokin Marlik Kelishom fault 36 45 Poshtkuh Uyeh - + Kabateh fault Rudbar Zard Goli fault + Manjil fault Jirandeh Manjil Ghezel Uzan river Manjil fault Manjil fault Shahrud river 36 Loshan 45 49 49 49 15 30 45 Fig. 4.1. Map of faults in the wider epicentral area (Extracted from morphotectonic map of the Sefidrud river, Berberian and Qorashi, 1991) UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 62 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran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uidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 Rezvanshahr Caspian Sea 01020km 37 37 30 30 Bandar Anzali 35 Khomam Bandar Kiashahr Masal Khoshkbijar Lashtnesha Someh Sara Rasht Koochesfahan 40 Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Sangar Lahijan Shaft Komeleh Siahkal Rudsar 45 Amlash Kalachay Vajargah 37 37 00 00 50 Abbar Rostam Abad 55 30 Rudbar 35 40 45 50 55 Manjil 55 50 45 40 55 35 30 Zanjan Loshan Jirandeh 50 45 36 36 30 30 40 Soltanieh Explanations: 35 Average PGA's: Saeen Ghaleh Gazvin Acceleration Hidej 20 izolines Khorram Darreh Alvand Operational strong motion instruments Abhar Symbols: Takestan Township limit 35 36 District limit 36 00 40 00 Rural district limit Esfarvarin Lake 45 Shal 23 District 50 145 Rural district 20 20 25 25 40 40 35 35 30 30 50 50 45 City 45 Town Boin Zahra Estehard Central and northern part area of the region: 35 - 40 % g: 10,401 sq. km 40-50%g: 6,834 sq. km >50%g: 3,317 sq. km Avaj 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 Fig. 4.2. Preliminary seismic zoning map of Planning Scale Earthquake (PSE) for seismic risk analysis of the region (PGA's in % of g) Based on seismic hazard analysis with 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 66 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 40 40 Rezvanshahr Caspian Sea 01020km 37 37 30 30 Bandar Anzali Khomam Bandar Kiashahr Khoshkbijar 45 Masal Lashtnesha Someh Sara Koochesfahan Rasht 50 Astaneh Fuman Langrood Masooleh Shaft Sangar Lahijan Komeleh 55 Siahkal Rudsar Amlash Kalachay Vajargah 37 37 00 00 Abbar 35 Rostam Abad 40 45 50 55 Rudbar Manjil 55 50 45 40 35 Loshan Jirandeh 55 Zanjan 50 36 36 30 45 30 Soltanieh 40 Explanations: Saeen Ghaleh Average PGA's: Gazvin Acceleration Hidej 20 izolines Khorram Darreh Alvand Operational strong motion instruments Abhar Symbols: Township limit Takestan 40 36 District limit 36 00 45 00 Rural district limit Esfarvarin Lake 50 Shal 23 District 25 25 30 30 40 40 35 35 50 50 45 145 Rural district 45 20 City 20 Town Boin Zahra Estehard Central and northern part area of the region: 37.5 - 40 % g: 4,325 sq. km 40-50%g:12,252 sq. km >50%g: 7,105 sq. km Avaj 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 Fig. 4.3. Preliminary seismic zoning map of Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) for seismic risk analysis of the region (PGA's in % of g) Based on seismic hazard analysis with 5% probability of exceedence in 50 years UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme 67 Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran Guidelines for Earthquake Disaster Management, Volume I, Part 2 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 20 20 Rezvanshahr Caspian Sea 01020km 37 37 30 30 Bandar Anzali Khomam Bandar Kiashahr Masal Khoshkbijar Lashtnesha Someh Sara 25 Rasht Koochesfahan Astaneh Langrood Masooleh Fuman Shaft Lahijan Sangar Komeleh Siahkal Rudsar Amlash Kalachay Vajargah 37 37 00 30 00 Abbar RostamAbad 20 25 Rudbar 30 Manjil 35 30 35 25 20 Jirandeh Zanjan Loshan 30 36 36 30 30 Soltanieh 25 Explanations: 20 Saeen Ghaleh Average PGA's: Gazvin Acceleration Hidej 20 izolines Khorram Darreh Alvand Operational strong motion instruments Abhar 25 Symbols: Takestan Township limit 36 District limit 36 00 30 00 Rural district limit Esfarvarin Lake Shal 23 District 15 15 20 20 30 35 35 145 Rural district 25 City Town Boin Zahra Estehard Central and northern part area of the region: 25 - 30 % g: 7,794 sq. km 30-35%g: 4,458 sq. km >35%g: 652sq.km Avaj 50 00 49 30 49 00 48 30 Fig. 4.4. Preliminary seismic zoning map of Frequent Scale Earthquake (FSE) for disaster preparedness planning of the region (PGA's in % of g) Based on seismic hazard analysis with 50% probability of exceedence in 50 years UNDP - UNCHS (Habitat) Project IRA/90/004 68 Assistance in the Implementation of Postearthquake Rehabilitation Programme Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, I. R. Iran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