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Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel: Supporting Documentation

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Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel: Supporting Documentation Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel: Supporting Documentation Publication No.: FHWA-RD-98-166 July 1999 Federal Highway Administration Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center 6300 Georgetown Pike, McLean, VA 22101 The original format of this document was an active HTML page(s). The Federal Highway Administration converted the HTML page(s) into an Adobe® Acrobat® PDF file to preserve and support reuse of the information it contained. The intellectual content of this PDF is an authentic capture of the original HTML file. Hyperlinks and other functions of the HTML webpage may have been lost, and this version of the content may not fully work with screen reading software. 2 Foreword This two-volume guidebook describes and compares the various methods and tools that can be used to forecast non-motorized travel demand or that otherwise support the prioritization and analyses of bicycle and pedestrian facilities. The guidebook is intended to be used by bicycle and pedestrian planners, technical staff, researchers, advocates, and others who may wish to estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel demand or to prioritize bicycle and pedestrian projects. This second volume, Supporting Documentation, gives details on each method, including purpose, structure, input / data needs, assumptions, and real-world applications. This volume contains an extensive annotated bibliography of references on demand forecasting methods, supporting tools and techniques, and factors influencing the choice to walk or bicycle, as well as potential contacts in this field. The other volume, Overview of Methods, provides an overview of each of nineteen methods appropriate for forecasting and/or understanding pedestrian and bicycle travel demand. Notice This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the use of the information contained in this document. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trademarks or manufacturers' names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document. Quality Assurance Statement The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides high-quality information to serve Government, industry, and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of its information. FHWA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement. 3 Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. FHWA-RD-98-166 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date GUIDEBOOK ON METHODS TO ESTIMATE NON-MOTORIZED TRAVEL: SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION July 1999 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization WL Schwartz, CD Porter, GC Payne, JH Suhrbier, PC Moe, WL Wilkinson III Report No. 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Bicycle Federation of America No. (TRAIS) 150 Cambridge Park Dr., Ste 4000 1506 21st St., NW, Ste. 200 Cambridge, MA 02140 Washington, DC 20036 3A4B 11. Contract or Grant No. DTFH61-92-C- 00138 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Federal Highway Administration Period Turner-Fairbanks Highway Research Center Covered 6300 Georgetown Pike McLean, VA 22101-2296 Final Report July 1, 1997 - February 28, 1999 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Contracting Officer's Technical Representatives (COTR's): Carol Tan Esse and Ann Do 16. Abstract This guidebook provides a means for practitioners to better understand and estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel and to address transportation planning needs. The guidebook describes and compares the various methods that can be used to forecast non-motorized travel demand or that otherwise support the prioritization and analyses of non-motorized projects. These methods are categorized according to four major purposes: (1) demand estimation; (2) relative demand potential; (3) supply quality analysis; and (4) supporting tools and techniques. Discrete choice models, regional travel models, sketch plan methods, facility demand potential, bicycle compatibility measures, and geographic information systems are among the methods and tools described. 4 Overview of Methods provides a concise overview for each available method, including some typical applications, pros and cons, and a quick reference guide on ease of use, data requirements, sensitivity to design factors, and whether widely used. In addition, it discusses general issues for consideration in forecasting non-motorized travel demand, such as the dimensions of travel behavior and factors influencing bicycling and walking, and identifies future needs in this area. Supporting Documentation provides substantially more detail on the methods including purpose, structure, input/data needs, assumptions, and real-world applications. It also contains an extensive annotated bibliography of references on demand forecasting methods, supporting tools and techniques, and factors influencing the choice to walk or bicycle, as well as potential contacts in this field. 17. Key Words: 18. Distribution Statement Bicycle, pedestrian, travel demand, forecasting methods, estimate. No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Information Services, Springfield, VA 22161 9. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. 22. of Price Unclassified Unclassified Pages Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of form and completed page is authorized 5 Table of Contents Foreword ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Notice .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Quality Assurance Statement ...................................................................................................... 3 Technical Report Documentation Page ...................................................................................... 4 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Purpose of the Guidebook ..................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Research Methodology ....................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Overview of Methods ......................................................................................................... 11 Documentation Of Methods .......................................................................................................... 14 Demand Estimation ................................................................................................................... 14 2.1 Comparison Studies ............................................................................................................ 14 2.2 Aggregate Behavior Studies ............................................................................................... 20 2.3 Bicycle Sketch Plan Methods ............................................................................................. 25 2.4 Pedestrian Sketch Plan Methods ......................................................................................... 30 2.5 Discrete Choice Models ...................................................................................................... 39 2.6 Discrete Choice Models: Route Choice .............................................................................. 47 2.7 Discrete Choice Models: Transit Access ............................................................................ 52 2.8 Regional Travel Models ...................................................................................................... 57 2.9 Bicycle Travel Models: QUOVADIS-BICYCLE .............................................................. 68 2.10 Bicycle Travel Models: START And TRIPS ................................................................... 73 2.11 Pedestrian Demand Models .............................................................................................. 78 2.12 Market Analysis ................................................................................................................ 82 2.13 Latent Demand Score ........................................................................................................ 87 2.14 Pedestrian Potential And Deficiency Indices .................................................................... 91 2.15 Bicycle Compatibility Measures ....................................................................................... 95 2.16 Pedestrian Compatibility Measures ...............................................................................
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