Newcastle University – Written evidence (BAT0035)

Executive summary

Newcastle University is a world-leading research-intensive university. Every day our teams are advancing knowledge, providing creative solutions, and solving global problems to provide benefits to individuals, to organisations and to society as a whole.

This submission provides an overview of Newcastle University’s internationally- recognised work on zero emissions vehicles alongside responses to some of the Committee’s specific questions on this topic. We have therefore focused our response on the transport related role of batteries, and answered those questions most relevant to our expertise.

In our submission, we have focused on the role of electric vehicles (EV), as there is no current evidence that any vehicle makers will supply a market for fuel cell vehicles (FCEV). The FCEV technology exists, and it has been shown in several trials to work, however the efficiency of the system and questions over the source of the hydrogen still remain. As such, the small numbers (235) of passenger cars are geographically constrained with no signs of growth in the market.

We are aware that in the UK there is a debate regarding buses and HGV as to what the dominant ‘fuel’ system will be.

We would welcome the opportunity to brief the Committee on this work in further detail and provide any additional information which would be helpful.

Overview of Newcastle University’s work

As a founding institution of the Faraday Institution, Newcastle University has been a key player in world-leading research to overcome challenges in current battery technology, focusing on extending battery life, recycling and re-using batteries, next generation batteries and battery system modelling. This work has unlocked significant investment and will play a key role in supporting the government’s ambition for the UK to be a world leader in battery technology and manufacturing.

Combining the University’s world-leading research on energy and transport, our extensive data infrastructure, and our close partnership with key city stakeholders, means Newcastle can also lead the way on zero emissions vehicles. The University is ideally suited to monitor and analyse policy and interventions on zero emissions vehicles, as we have done for the past decade, and we can design robust experiments and analyse impacts across sectors and scales.

Newcastle University owns Zero Carbon Futures (ZCF), a North East based company that provides insight into low carbon vehicles and associated technologies enabling the development of strategies to reduce carbon emissions from transport. The recent acquisition will allow Newcastle University to provide a larger platform for ZCF, through our research specialisms in transport, electric vehicles and sustainability, whilst ZCF will bring a wealth of experience project managing multi-million pound projects, skills delivery, and electric vehicles strategies for cities such as London, Manchester.

Newcastle University has been working with the UK’s only battery Giga plant owned by AESC in Sunderland since its opening in 2013 and is in close contact with Britishvolt on this too. The collaboration with Britishvolt is wide ranging and currently being developed via a soon to be released MoU.

Our response to the inquiry’s questions

1. To what extent are battery and fuel cell technologies currently contributing to decarbonisation efforts in the UK?

The current decarbonisation effect is minimal due to the nascent EV market. Transport makes up around 27% of UK emissions of which 91% (24%) is road transport, 55% is car and taxi (13%). EV currently makes up 1.13% of vehicles which is 2.7%. Fuel cells in transport has had no measurable effect due to the fact that only 235 passenger cars have been registered to date.

The arrival of the EV passenger car is contributing in a socio-economic manner by creating new industries and raising consumer awareness to the decarbonisation effort.

 What are the primary applications of battery and fuel cell technologies for decarbonisation, and at what scale have they been deployed?

The primary application of these technologies is transport and energy storage. From the transport aspect, batteries in passenger cars is growing sales with an increase of 100,000 in 2020 over the 2019 figure. The UK automotive industry has been led by Nissan in Sunderland where the full EV Leaf is made.

The latest release of the UK Battery Storage Project database report reveals that nearly 300MW of utility scale battery storage was deployed in 2019, bringing cumulative installations to over 900MW at the end of last year. The total pipeline of battery storage projects in the UK has now reached over 13.5GW.1

2. What advances have been made in battery and fuel cell technologies in recent years and what changes can we expect in the next ten years (for example, in terms of energy density, capacity, charging times, lifetimes and cost reduction)?

The advances made in battery and fuel cell technologies have been incremental over the last few years, rather than significant step changes. For example:  Energy density: has doubled in the last 10 years. It is believed that density of Li-ion may increase by 20% until the next technology change is introduced.  Cost reduction: This has seen a dramatic reduction from $1,200 in 2010 to $156 in 2020 (Bloomberg figures). Reductions are now in the region of 13% but in monetary terms $20 from 2019 to 2020.

1 The Solar Power Portal  Capacity increase: This currently is created mainly by larger batteries. Using the Nissan Leaf as an example, the first vehicle was 24kWh then 30kWh, 40kWh and now 62kWh. Some improvement has been achieved by chemistry change but the last increase was by clever packaging of the cells.  Charging times: These have not changed dramatically even though the chargers have become more powerful. Ten years ago, chargers were 3kW and now 350kW are available, however unlike conventional fuel systems, which push fuel into a tank, the battery draws power from the charger. Some vehicles with advanced battery systems can draw higher power but not sustained high power. Again using the Nissan Leaf as an example, it will take the same charge time on a 50kW charger as a 350kW charger. This is not expected to dramatically change over the next five years. Behavioural studies are starting to show that charging is price sensitive meaning that a slow cheap home charge may be preferred to a rapid expensive charge.

 What advances are expected beyond this timeframe, but in time to have an impact upon the 2050 net-zero target? Are there any fundamental limits to these technologies that would affect their contribution to the target?

As all vehicles sold by 2050 will be Zero Emissions, new technology will have no impact on tail pipe emissions as the current technology is Zero Emissions. What may be different is the lifetime carbon footprint.

 Are there any implications of next generation battery technologies that could make the charging infrastructure we will be installing between now and 2030 obsolete?

No but it could impact on numbers and viability of chargers. This is an area where Newcastle University has been exploring but cannot get the government to fund serious research. The number of high-power (DC) charge posts required is a function of time. The key variables are time of day and how long on a rapid charger.

In practice, this means that if we take a normal 8am to 8pm charging window we have 12 hours. If people arrive by luck in a sequential way and charge for exactly one hour we can charge 12 cars. If we have 24 cars, then we need two chargers etc. If technology allows a 30min charge then we can charge 24 cars on one charger, and technology allows a five min charge then we can charge 72 cars on one charger. If 80% of people charge in a five hour window then the numbers of chargers will change but the principle is the same. We might not have the wrong technology for chargers, but far too many. 3. What are the opportunities and challenges associated with scaling up the manufacture of batteries and fuel cells, and for manufacturing batteries and fuel cells for a greater number and variety of applications? Is the UK well placed to become a leader in battery and fuel cell manufacture?

There are significant opportunities for batteries to achieve the UK and EU decarbonisation targets. The governing factor in the production of battery cells is simply capital; there are no technical problems. The challenge is to have a clear market for the batteries, as the market will determine the volumes and the chemistry. The Britishvolt example is that from announcement to first production is three years.

The challenge for the battery industry and the vehicle makers is that a supply chain and capacity must be built within the new trading agreement with the EU, in a very short time frame. Vehicle platforms have to be designed, manufacturing plants modified or decommissioned, as well as many thousands of staff retrained.

It is a fact that, if there is not enough investment in battery plants worldwide there will not be enough vehicles. If there is not enough supply for all the countries, which are setting 2030 as a target, then some will lose out. If the UK quota of electric vehicles does not count towards the EU fleet average requirements, then the UK will need to introduce fines like the EU, to ensure a supply of circa 2 million vehicles per annum. Even with the known future battery capacity in Europe, it is problematical that the UK will secure enough vehicles of enough types to satisfy the market. With a vehicle market of, in a normal year, circa 2.5m vehicles it will need a step change from the current 0.25m registrations.

 What supply chain considerations need to be taken into account when scaling up battery and fuel cell manufacture in the UK?

All aspects of the supply chain need to be considered, as the supply of materials will probably be determined by politics and production capability. China dominates the raw material supply chain here and there is a risk that it may exercise some controls.

4. Is the right strategy, funding and support in place to enable the research, innovation and commercialisation of battery and fuel cell technologies in the UK?

With regard to batteries, the Faraday Institution is doing a good job. However, the scale of battery investment in Asia is very large.

 Is the UK doing enough to accelerate new developments from low technology readiness levels right through to commercial application in the UK?

New developments only work if there is a demand from customers. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, for battery chemistry developed in the UK to be adopted by a transplant battery manufacturer. The emergence of Britishvolt should change this situation, however it will be several years away.

 Does the UK have the workforce and skillsets required for battery and fuel cell research and manufacture? If not, what are the challenges associated with developing this expertise?

Work is underway, with Newcastle University partnering with Warwick University and many other contributors to produce a new comprehensive battery training curriculum. Our focus is on technicians and engineers.

5. Which countries are currently the leaders in battery and/or fuel cell science and technology and where, if anywhere, does the UK have a lead or other advantages?

With respect to batteries, China, South Korea and Japan are leading the world.

In the UK, there is a relatively clean grid to manufacture batteries, and within the country the North East is well-positioned to take the lead in battery science and technology.

For example, the site chosen by Britishvolt in Blyth Northumberland is quite unique in that it has a deep water port, access to green electricity via the new Norwegian interconnector, and access to the grid due to the site being a former power station and a freight rail line.

Within 20 miles of this site lies the UK’s only other battery Giga factory and an EV manufacturer, Nissan, making the North East the perfect ecosystem for the growth of this technology and developing a supply chain.

6. In what sectors could battery and fuel cell technologies play a significant role?  What are the engineering and commercial challenges associated with using these technologies, or deploying them to a greater extent, in these sectors?

The challenge the UK has is that, apart from bus manufacture, we are receivers of other countries’ vehicle makers decisions. Put simply, if the big HGV manufacturers in Europe decide on a technology then that is the one that we will get. The big challenge is then to be infrastructure ready for the chosen technology.

Buses are more complicated. EV buses are entering service in numbers while FCEV are still going through trials. This is an area where decisions need to be made, more than any other sector, because buses are a commodity which move around the country. If we have a city with FCEV buses and then its neighbour choses EV buses, then either we have parallel infrastructure or islands of technology.

 What will be the likely balance between battery and hydrogen fuel cell technologies (and other options) in a fully decarbonised land transport sector (e.g. heavy and light vehicle transport)? We expect that for vehicles under 3.5 T it will be all battery, and that short haul HGV will probably be electric with long haul hydrogen or biofuel or electric. As we outlined previously, this decision is realistically not the UK’s.

8. What are the life cycle environmental impacts associated with batteries and fuel cells (e.g. in resource extraction, product manufacture, operation, reuse and recycling), and how can these be managed as production and usage increase?  Please give examples of successful battery reuse or recycling, including the intentional design of second life applications.

Connected Energy are an award winning second life battery storage company and a partner of Newcastle University. Their website gives examples of their work.2

 Given a potential global vehicle fleet approaching 2 billion vehicles by 2050, will all of the materials needed for battery and fuel cell production be available for manufacturing based in the UK?

As we approach 2050 or even 2030 the battery chemistry is not set, nor is the overall design of the battery. For current Li-ion chemistry, technically the UK could supply a lot of the material by type. The challenge would be the scale required, which is determined by the vehicle manufacturing capacity or simply the market.

30 March 2021

2 Connected Energy