CHAPTER 6 SOCIETY AND ECONOMICS
Environmental Statement – Society and Economics
6.0 SOCIETY AND ECONOMICS
Introduction
6.1 This chapter considers the socio-economic issues associated with the proposed development and the potential effects that it may have on social infrastructure and the local economy.
6.2 The society and economic assessment considers the current (baseline) situation. The assessment reviews potential impact effects (both positive and negative) arising from the proposed development and then identifies where appropriate any necessary mitigation measures.
6.3 This section commences with an outline of the regulatory and policy context for the assessment followed by the scope of the assessment and a summary of the methodology. This is then followed by a baseline summary and an analysis of the effects of the scheme having regard for social and economic considerations. Two distinct but inter linked periods are considered, comprising the construction period and the operational period. Finally, consideration is given to the need for mitigation, followed by a summary of residual effects.
Regulatory and Policy Context
National Policy
6.4 The key policies and documents relevant to this chapter are set out in brief below:
‘People, Places, Futures’ – the Wales Spatial Plan 2008 Update’1
6.5 The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP), originally adopted by the WG in 2004, was updated in 2008 to bring the plan into line with the Assembly’s ‘One Wales’ agenda (2008 Update adopted 8th July 2008). The broad 20-year agenda and overall principles of the plan remain unchanged. The plan aims to sustain and enhance Welsh communities by tackling the challenges presented by population and economic change, and aims to stimulate growth which will increase the country’s competitiveness whilst spreading prosperity to less affluent areas.
6.6 The WSP has the following vision:
‘We will sustain our communities by tackling the challenges presented by population and economic change. We will grow in ways which will increase Wales’ competitiveness while assisting less well- off areas to catch up on general prosperity levels and reducing negative environmental impacts. We will enhance the natural and built environment and we will sustain our distinctive identity.’ (2008 Update, page 20).
1 Welsh Assembly Government, “People, Places, Futures,” The Wales Spatial Plan, 2008 Update [online] Available: https://gweddill.gov.wales/docs/desh/publications/130701wales-spatial-plan-2008-update-en.pdf [Accessed February 2019]
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6.7 The application site is located within the ‘South East Wales – Capital Region.’ The WSP identifies the Region as:
‘An innovative skilled Area offering a high quality of life – international yet distinctively Welsh. It will compete internationally by increasing its global visibility through stronger links between the Valleys and the coast and with the UK and the rest of Europe, helping to spread prosperity within the Area and benefiting other parts of Wales’ (2008 Update, page 98)’
6.8 The site is located within the ‘City Coastal Zone’ of the region. This sub area includes the two main cities of Cardiff and Newport as well as smaller distinct communities offering a high quality of life located in rural, coastal locations (including Barry and Chepstow).
6.9 The WSP confirms in paragraph 19.15 that projected growth for the Capital Region is significant, as is demand for affordable housing. It states that:
‘The City Coastal Zone provides a superb environment in which to live. The pressure to provide more housing and employment should be managed so as to fit in compatibly with conservation of the landscape, environment and community strength of this area.’ (2008 Update, Page 101).
Well-being of Future Generations Act (2015)2
6.10 The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. The act acknowledges that Wales faces a number of challenges now and in the future, such as climate change, poverty, health inequalities and jobs and growth.
6.11 The Well-being of Future Generations Act acknowledges in terms of investment in housing, it is important to think in the long-term, and think holistically about how a house becomes an economic driver, a social transformer, an environmental mitigator and a cultural asset to invest in our future generations.3
Planning Policy Wales (Edition 10, December 2018)4
6.12 Planning Policy Wales (PPW) sets out the land use planning policies of the Welsh Government. It is supplemented by a series of Technical Advice Notes (TANs), Welsh Government Circulars, and policy clarification letters, which together with PPW provide the national planning policy
2 Welsh Government, “Well-being Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015,” [online] Available: https://gweddill.gov.wales/topics/people-and-communities/people/future-generations-act/?lang=en [Accessed February 2019] 3 Future Generations Commissioner for Wales “Home is where well-being beings (2017)” [online] Available: https://futuregenerations.wales/news/home-well-begins/ [Accessed February 2019] 4 Welsh Government, “Planning Policy Wales Edition 10 2018” [online] Available: https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2019-02/planning-policy-wales-edition-10.pdf [Accessed February 2019]
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framework for Wales. PPW, the TANs, MTANs and policy clarification letters comprise national planning policy.
6.13 The concept of ‘Active and Social Places’ is introduced within PPW Edition 10. Active and Social Places are those which promote economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being by providing well-connected communities for all sectors of society, allowing everyone to have a good quality of life by living in strong and safe communities, improving access to services, cultural opportunities and recreation facilities to support people to adopt healthy lifestyles, securing socially inclusive development and more cohesive development. It states that:
‘This theme supports and enables the provision of a range of well-designed and located homes which are well connected to existing retail and commercial centres situated at the heart of our communities and job opportunities. It emphasises that when planning and managing future development planning authorities need to ensure that residents of existing and new communities have access to jobs and an appropriate range of community facilities including recreation, leisure, health and education.’ (PPW Ed.10, Page 46).
6.14 In relation to housing, PPW supports that the planning system must:
• ‘identify a supply of land to support the delivery of the housing requirement to meet the differing needs of communities across all tenures; • Enable provision of a range of well-designed, energy efficient, good quality market and affordable housing that will contribute to the creation of sustainable places; and • Focus on the delivery of the identified housing requirement and the related land supply.’ (PPW Edition 10, Page 55).’
Technical Advice Note 23 Economic Development (February 2014)5
6.15 The purpose of TAN 23 is to provide guidance on planning for economic development. PPW defines economic development broadly so that it can include any form of development that generates wealth, jobs and income. The TAN recognises that economic land uses include construction, including house building, albeit housing is not a final economic land use as it ‘does not directly generate wealth, jobs and income.’ (Paragraph 1.1.5).
6.16 The TAN provides guidance on how to weigh up economic benefits. It reiterates that planning should positively and imaginatively seek ‘win-win’ outcomes, where development contributes to all dimensions of sustainability (including social and environmental objectives) (Paragraph 2.1.1). It is accepted that quantifying economic impacts is not an easy task, and therefore encourages local planning authorities to use a qualitative, criteria-based approach – which requires the consideration of alternatives, the number of jobs accommodated and any special merit.
5 Welsh Government, “Technical Advice Note 23: Economic Development” [online] Available: https://gov.wales/technical-advice-note-tan-23-economic-development [Accessed February 2019]
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Economic Renewal: A New Direction (July 2010)6
6.17 ‘Economic Renewal: A New Direction’ is the WG’s programme for developing a new means for economic activity and development. The WG’s vision for economic renewal ‘is of a Welsh economy built on the strengths and skills of its people and natural environment; recognised at home and abroad as confident, creative and ambitious; a great place to live and work.’
6.18 ‘Economic Renewal: A New Direction’ recognises that expenditure on housing and construction presents a huge opportunity to deliver efficiencies and at the same time develop local manufacturers and service providers, and a local skilled workforce.
Improving Lives and Communities: Homes in Wales (April 2010)7
6.19 The above document, the National Housing Strategy, aims to provide more housing of the right type and offer more choice. It recognises that the demand for housing continues to outstrip supply, which needs to be met by new houses and by bringing back into use empty properties. It goes on to recognise that investment in housing does not only meet people’s needs for a home – it brings with it benefits for the economy, for jobs and training opportunities, for people’s health and well- being, and for the environment. It also helps tackle poverty and inequalities and opens up new opportunities for people.
6.20 Paragraph 1.2 of the strategy states that:
‘Housing is the bedrock of communities. It drives the demand for local services, shops and facilities. People’s homes are the focus for the delivery of many services, such as health and care services.’
Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006 – 20268
6.21 As discussed in further detail elsewhere within the supporting documents, the site is allocated as a Strategic Site within the adopted Local Development Plan, in order to meet the housing need identified by Cardiff Council. The site, known as Strategic Site E ‘South of Creigiau,’ is allocated and includes provision for a housing-based scheme of approximately 650 homes representing a southern extension of the existing village.
6 Welsh Assembly Government, “Economic Renewal: a new direction (July 2010)” [online] Available: https://www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/Documents/Living/Planning/Policy/LDP/Examination-Documents- 2015/Further-Submission-Documents/SD96%20-%20Economic%20Renewal%20- %20A%20New%20Direction%20(2010).pdf [Accessed February 2019] 7 Welsh Assembly Government, “Improving Lives and Communities” [online] Available: https://gweddill.gov.wales/docs/desh/publications/100421housingstrategyen.pdf [Accessed February 2019] 8 City of Cardiff Council, “Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006-2026,” [online] Available: https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Planning/Local-Development- Plan/Documents/Final%20Adopted%20Local%20Development%20Plan%20English.pdf [Accessed February 2019]
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Assessment Methodology
6.22 The assessment first establishes the baseline position in terms of local economic conditions and the current provision of education, health, leisure and community facilities, before examining the potential impacts of the proposed residential development and their significance. Opportunities for mitigation of any adverse effects and the enhancement of positive effects are then examined, including any built-in mitigation elements of the scheme, such as open space and social infrastructure facilities. This assessment draws upon published Government and local authority statistics.
6.23 Initial consideration has been given to a wide range of socio-economic topics. The primary effect of the proposal has been determined to be as follows:
• Any impacts on the characteristics of the local population as a result of the proposed development that will be created; • Any impacts arising from the provision of new housing within the study area, including affordable housing; • Any impacts arising from the commercial development within the application site and its consequences; • Any impacts arising from the employment provision within the application site and the number of jobs likely to be created as a result of the proposed development – both during construction and operation; • Any impacts on the local and regional economy; and • Any impacts on the provision of community facilities as a result of the proposed development (including community buildings, healthcare infrastructure, education facilities and Public Open Space [POS]).
Areas of Assessment
6.24 The project site is located entirely within Cardiff Council, but is located in close proximity to the boundary of Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council to the North West and to the boundary of Vale of Glamorgan Council to the south (beyond the M4). As such, for the purpose of this assessment the ‘Regional Study Area’ comprises the combined area covered by these three local authorities that is used as the study area for the purposes of assessing the sub-regional impact of the project, as indicated in the Figure 6.1 below.
Figure 6.1 Regional Study Area:
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Source: National Archives © Crown Copyright 2013 (2013)
6.25 In addition, however, it is important to consider the more local effects of the project on community facilities and surgeries. For this, a collection of lower level wards within the local authorities are used. As shown in Figure 6.2, the ‘Local Study Area’ will comprises the following wards:
• Creigiau/ St Fagans (Cardiff) within which the site falls entirely); • Pentyrch (Cardiff); • Radyr (Cardiff); • Pont-y-Clun (Rhondda Cynon Taf); and • Peterston-super-Ely (Vale of Glamorgan).
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Figure 6.2: Local Study Area
Source: National Archives © Crown Copyright 2013 (2013)
6.26 Both the Regional Study Area and the Local Study Area will be compared against national figures and a national average (for Wales).
Baseline Conditions
6.27 Baseline information on the conditions of the area has been collated from a variety of sources referenced in the text. Sources of information include:
• National Census (2011) and other ONS-produced sources; • NOMIS labour market statistics; • Indices of Multiple Deprivation (including the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] 2014); • My Local School; • NHS Wales; and • Local Authority information.
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6.28 The project site is located entirely within Cardiff Council, but is located in close proximity to the boundary of Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council to the west and to the boundary of Vale of Glamorgan Council to the south (beyond the M4). As such, it is considered that the Regional Study Area comprises the combined area covered by these local authorities and that this is used as the study area for the purposes of assessing the sub regional impact of the project.
6.29 Data used has provided a broad quantitative baseline of socio-economic and community conditions. It should be stressed that many social and community effects are by definition complex, interrelated, and difficult to characterise or measure in any precise quantitative manner. As a result, some judgements are necessarily subjective.
6.30 It is should also be noted that, wherever possible, consistent data sets have been used to provide the ability for direct comparisons. In some instances, however, this may not have been possible and therefore caution should be exercised in undertaking direct comparisons.
Population Demographics
6.31 For most societal effects, the magnitude is measured in the change of population by the project. Population demographics have been largely derived from the 2011 and 2001 and Census data. Future Projections are assessed using population projections issued by the Welsh Government’s (WG) 2008 and 2011-based population projections.
Housing
6.32 Data from the 2011 Census and the three local authority’s statistics forming the regional study area have been used to quantify existing housing provision and estimated need for the study area. Household growth will be based on a population of 2.30 persons per household. It is anticipated that the residential aspect of the proposed development will consist of a range of household types with an emphasis on family dwellings. The various Local Housing Market Assessment reports have also been taken into consideration and informed the housing strategy in terms of tenure and mix for the proposal. This is particularly the case in regards to annual affordable housing need and affordable housing delivery within the study area.
Employment and Economy
6.33 Economic effects are considered primarily in terms of effects on construction employment since this is a good indicator for the wellbeing of the local economy as well as significantly contributing to social wellbeing. In addition, economic effects can be considered in terms of local business competition and linkages. Up to date data concerning the key economic statistics has also been obtained. Up to date official labour market statistics at a Local Authority Level are provided by NOMIs.
Community Facilities
6.34 Community facilities, for the purposes of this chapter, are subdivided into the categories: community buildings, healthcare infrastructure, education facilities and Public Open Space (POS).
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6.35 A review of the community building provision was undertaken in respect of Cardiff, based on recent studies. The effect of the project was assessed using the population estimates to calculate the need for any additional facilities either as part of the development itself or the upgrading of existing facilities.
6.36 A review of the existing healthcare infrastructure (GP surgeries, hospitals etc) and the level of demand placed on it has been carried out. In order to assess the effect of the incoming population has on the existing healthcare infrastructure capacity and demand for local GP surgeries has been established via a search of local GP surgeries within a distance of under 6.5km of the application site using the NHS Direct Wales Local Services Search9. The assessment then considers the level of additional demand the project’s population will place on it and the need for additional resources.
6.37 Estimation of existing capacity within primary and secondary schools has been established via a search of local primary and secondary schools within a distance of under 7.5km of the application.
6.38 Brief consideration of Public Open Space (POS) has been undertaken, with the understanding of minimal existing POS provision within the locality and the need arising from the development.
Significance Criteria
6.39 Assessment of significance is determined by the scale of receptor and magnitude. Table 6.1 defines the scale of receptors.
Table 6.1: Scale of Receptor
Level Example
National Social and economic effects that have an influence at a national scale (Wales).
Regional Social and economic effects that have an influence at the regional scale (combined Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Vale of Glamorgan local authority areas) [Figure 6.1]
Location Social and economic effects that principally have an effect at the site/ local scale or concern sub-sections of the local community (the Wards of Creigiau/ St Fagans (Cardiff) (in which the site lies entirely within, Pentyrch (Cardiff), Radyr (Cardiff), Pont-y-Clun (Rhondda Cynon Taf) and Peterston- super-Ely (Vale of Glamorgan). [Figure 6.2].
9 NHS Direct Wales, “Local Services Search” [online] Accessed: [March 2019] Available: https://www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk/localservices/
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6.40 The magnitude of impacts are assessed as ‘major’, ‘moderate’, ‘minor’ and ‘negligible’, and based upon this qualitative judgement, the significance of the effect has been assessed as a combination of the scale of the receptor and the magnitude of the impact. This is summarised in Table 6.2. Table 6.3 sets out the broad definitions of significance. Qualitative and quantitative techniques will be used to assess the impacts as appropriate.
Table 6.2: Significance of Effect
Magnitude of Impact
Major Moderate Minor Negligible
National Major Moderate/ Moderate Moderate/ Major Minor
Sub-regional Moderate/ Moderate Moderate/ Minor Receptor Major Minor Scale
Local Moderate Moderate/ Minor Negligible Minor
Table 6.3: Definitions of Significance
Criteria Significance
Major The proposal would cause a substantial deterioration or improvement to the baseline.
Moderate/ Major These effects are likely to be important considerations at a sub-regional scale but, if adverse, are potential concerns to the project, depending on the relative importance attached to the issue during the decision making process.
Moderate The proposal would cause a noticeable and clear deterioration or improvement to the baseline
Minor The proposal would cause a perceptible deterioration or improvement to the baseline.
Negligible The proposal would cause a barely perceptible deterioration or improvement to the baseline.
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Assumptions and Limitations
6.41 The assessment utilises secondary data sources and professional judgement has been utilised to extract and interpret relevant data sources. However, the spatial and temporal scales utilised within the assessment are dependent on the availability of relevant published data.
6.42 The assessment has been based on information received from the applicant and supporting professional consultants and it is assumed that the data provided is accurate and duly reflects the proposed scheme.
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Baseline Conditions
Population Demographics and Projections
6.43 The total population of Wales is estimated at 3.06 million (ONS, 2011 Census)10. The population grew by 160,731 in the 10 years since the last census, rising from 2.90 million in 2001, an increase of 5.52%. This was the largest growth in the population between censuses, since 1921. These figures are represented in Table 6.4 below.
6.44 The total population within the Regional Study Area according to the 2011 Census was 706,836. This represents a 7.65% increase from 656,591 according to the 200111 Census. Of the three local authorities making up the Regional Study area, Cardiff experienced the greatest population growth over the same period with over 13% growth. Rhondda Cynon Taf experienced nearly a 6% growth in population and the Vale of Glamorgan for just over 1%. Cardiff’s growth has therefore been significantly higher than the national average, Rhondda Cynon Taf marginally greater than average but the Vale of Glamorgan significantly lower than the national average.
6.45 At a Local Study Area, the population rose from 20,837 (2001 Census) to 25,428 (2011 Census) representing an increase of 22.03% over this period. All wards experienced growth with the exception of Pentyrch which saw a slight decline in its population of 1.47%. Nearly 40% growth was observed within the Radyr and Pontyclun Wards, significantly greater than the Local Study Area average.
6.46 While there have been developments over the ten-year period, it is not thought the significant increase in the population can be explained through development. Rather, it is understood boundary changes in collecting the statistical data occurred between the 2001 and 2011 censuses.
Table 6.4: Population (Usual Residents) (Wales and Regional Study Area)12
Regional Rhondda Vale of Topic Wales Cardiff Study Cynon Taf Glamorgan Area
All Usual Count 3,063,456 346,090 126,336 234,410 706,836 Residents
10 ONS, “2011 Census: Key Statistics for Wales, March 2011” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/2 011censuskeystatisticsforwales/2012-12-11 11 ONS, “2001 Census and earlier” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/2001censusandearlier 12 ONS, “2011 Census; Usual resident population, local authorities in England and Wales” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/2 011censuskeystatisticsforlocalauthoritiesinenglandandwales
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Regional Rhondda Vale of Topic Wales Cardiff Study Cynon Taf Glamorgan Area
(March 2011)
All Usual Count 2,903,085 305,353 119,292 231,946 656,591 Residents (April 2001)
Population Count 160,371 40,737 7,044 2,464 50,245 Change 2001-2011
Population % 5.52 13.34 5.90 1.06 7.65 Change 2001-2011
Table 6.5: Population (Usual Residents) (Local Study Area)
Local Creigiau/ Peterston- Topic Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study St Fagans super-Ely Area
All Usual Count 5,153 3,483 6,417 8,086 2,289 25,428 Residents (March 2011)13
All Usual Count 4,601 3,535 4,658 5,794 2,249 20,837 Residents (April 2001)14
Count 552 -52 1,759 2,292 40 4,591
13 ONS, “2011 Census: Key Statistics for Wales, March 2011” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/2 011censuskeystatisticsforwales/2012-12-11 14 ONS, “2001 Census and earlier” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/2001censusandearlier
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Local Creigiau/ Peterston- Topic Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study St Fagans super-Ely Area
Population % 12.00 -1.47 37.76 39.56 1.78 22.03 Change 2001- 2011
6.47 As shown in Table 6.6, the age structure of the population broadly reflects wider trends evident in Wales and the UK. The Regional Study Area has an ageing population, and increased life expectancy and overseas immigration has resulted in moderate population growth which is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
6.48 Cardiff’s median age and its (connected) age structure in the form of those over 65 years is somewhat lower than that of the other local authorities and of the national average, considered to be as a consequence of the larger student population present within Cardiff. Connected to the lower percentage of over 65s, is the higher percentage of 17-64 year olds within Cardiff, at 68.7% of the population compared to a Wales national average of 63.5% and a Regional Study Area average of 65.23%.
Table 6.6: Population Age Structure (Wales and Regional Study Area)15
Rhondda Vale of Regional Age Range Wales Cardiff Cynon Taf Glamorgan Study Area
0-16 Count 556,296 62,975 44,294 23,832 131,101
% 18.1 18.2 18.9 18.8 18.63
17-64 Count 1,944,616 237,563 150,043 79,449 467,055
% 63.5 68.7 64.1 62.9 65.23
65+ Count 562,544 45,552 40,073 23,055 108,680
% 18.3 13.2 17.1 18.3 16.2
15 ONS, “Age structure, local authorities in England and Wales” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/2 011censuskeystatisticsforlocalauthoritiesinenglandandwales
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Rhondda Vale of Regional Age Range Wales Cardiff Cynon Taf Glamorgan Study Area
Mean Years 40.6 36.5 39.8 40.9 39.07 Age
Median Years 41 33 40 42 38.33 Age
6.49 In late February 2014, the Welsh Government released the latest household projections with a 2011 base-date, indicating the number of households up to 2036 across all Welsh local authorities. In respect of Cardiff, the projections expect an increase of households from 142,802 in 2011 to 201,792 in 2036. At the end of the Deposit LDP plan period in 2026, there is projected to be 177,592 households within Cardiff. The Vale of Glamorgan and Rhondda Cynon Taf also experience increases over the period to 2036. However, for all three local authority’s, the 2011-based projections indicate reduced household numbers from the earlier 2008-based projections.
6.50 The Welsh Government’s 2008-based household projections indicated that the average household size across Wales will decrease between 2008 and 2033 from 2.26 persons per household to 2.02. The Welsh Government’s latest 2014-based household projections suggest that the average household size across Wales will fall from 2.29 persons per household in 2014 to 2.19 persons per household by 2034. For the purpose of this assessment, the household size of 2.30 is assumed to reflect the existing need and demand for family housing. The figure of 2.30 persons is used as an average household size across the study areas.
Table 6.7: Average Household Size (Wales) (Selected Years)16
Year 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034
2008 – 2.19 2.14 2.10 2.07 2.04 - based
2011 – 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.23 2.21 2.19 based
2014 - 2.29 2.67 2.24 2.22 2.21 2.19 based
16 Stats Wales, “2014 Based Household Projections for Wales, Welsh Government” [online] (Accessed March 2019) Available: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Housing/Households/Projections/Local-Authority/2014- Based/householdprojections-by-localauthority-year
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The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD)
6.51 The WIMD is the official measure of small area deprivation in Wales. The full index is updated every 4 to 5 years. The most recent index was published in 2014 and the next one is planned for 2019 (not currently available at the time of drafting this ES).
6.52 It is constructed from a weighted sum of the deprivation score for various domains including income, employment, health, education, geographical access to services, community safety, physical environment and housing. Each LSOA is then ranked in order with the most deprived LSOA (Rank 1) having the highest proportion of its population deprived and the least deprived LSOA (rank 1896) has the lowest proportion.
6.53 As the WIMD is based on LSOA areas, reference is first made to the three local authorities within the Regional Study Area (Table 6.8) and then to the thirteen LSOA’s which make up the five wards across the three local authorities (Table 6.9). The site itself lies within the Creigiau/ St Fagans electoral ward.
Table 6.8: WIMD (Regional Study Area)17
Local Authority WIMD Measurement Cardiff Rhondda Cynon Taf Vale of Glamorgan
Number of LSOAs 214 154 79
Percentage of LSOAs in…..
Most deprived 10% 18 17 5
Most deprived 20% 28 30 15
Most deprived 30% 36 47 19
Most deprived 50% 46 72 37
6.54 As clearly shown in Table 6.8, the majority of the LSOA’s considered are amongst the least deprived LSOA’s across the Regional Studies Area and Wales. Of the 1909 LSOA’s in Wales, 447 make up the Regional Study Area. Cardiff has 214 LSOA’s with only 18% of these LSOA’s falling within the nationally most-deprived 10% and 28% within the most-deprived 20%. Rhondda Cynon Taf has 154
17 Stats Wales, “WIMD 2014 Local Authority Analysis” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Community-Safety-and-Social-Inclusion/Welsh-Index-of-Multiple- Deprivation/WIMD-2014
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LSOAs, with only 17% of these LSOA’s falling within the nationally most-deprived 10% and 30% within the most-deprived 20%. The Vale of Glamorgan has 79 LSOAs, with only 5% of these LSOA’s falling within the nationally most-deprived 10% and 15% within the most-deprived 20%.
6.55 Across the various levels of deprivation, the Vale of Glamorgan has the lowest percentage of its LSOAs, Cardiff second and Rhondda Cynon Taf the most. It is therefore evident from the above data, that the Vale of Glamorgan can be considered and Rhondda Cynon Taf the most deprived of the three local authorities. However, this may not be entirely reflective upon the more localised context to the area given the northern reach of Rhondda Cynon Taf and its inclusion of the more deprived valley LSOAs.
Figure 6.3: Legend for LSOA Maps.
Figure 6.4 WIMD Map: Cardiff18
18 Welsh Government, “Local Authority: Cardiff Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2014” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: http://wimd.wales.gov.uk/geography/la/W06000015?lang=en#&min=0&max=10&domain=overall
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Figure 6.5 WIMD Map: Rhondda Cynon Taf19
Figure 6.6 WIMD MAP: Vale of Glamorgan20
19 Welsh Government, “Local Authority: Rhondda Cynon Taf Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2014” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: http://wimd.wales.gov.uk/geography/la/W06000016?lang=en#&min=0&max=10&domain=overall 20 Welsh Government “Local Authority: Vale of Glamorgan Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2014” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: http://wimd.wales.gov.uk/geography/la/W06000014?lang=en#&min=0&max=10&domain=overall
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Table 6.9: WIMD across the 14 LSOAs within the Local Study Area21
LSOA Name (and number) WIMD
Creigiau 1 1748
2 1887
3 1715
Pentyrch 1 1812
2 1626
Radyr and Morganstown 1 1747
2 1890
3 1900
4 1893
Pont-y-clun 1 1750
2 1844
3 1785
4 1024
Peterstone Super Ely 1 1672
6.56 There is some variation between each domain used to calculate the index. It is clear from the domains, the LSOAs are some of the least deprived in terms of employment, health, education and housing. The Community Safety domain is also relatively high across all LSOAs, although there is still a variation amongst the LSOAs.
6.57 The LSOA’s are, however, considered more deprived in terms of physical environment domains and access to services, and in part, health. The access to services domain is based on a number of
21 Stats Wales, “Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2014 by rank and lower super output area” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available:
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indicators relating to the bus and walking journey times to key services including health facilities, schools and shops. This can be partly attributed to the fact many of the LSOA’s are located in urban fringe areas and as such do not benefit from regular public transport services.
6.58 The physical environment domain has a weight of 5% in the Index and is calculated using indicators of air emissions, air quality, flood risk and proximity to waste disposal and industrial sites. The methodology used to calculate the WIMD 2014 physical environment domain is the same as WIMD 2011, however, there have been some technical improvements to the air quality and flooding indicators.
6.59 In short, whilst there are localised pockets of deprivation in certain domains used to calculate the WIMD the area surrounding the site comprises off the least deprived LSOAs across Wales. Only one LSOA, Pont-y-clun 4, has a WIMD score of less than 1,100, with all other 13 LSOA’s scoring over 1,600.
Housing
Tenure
6.60 As shown in Table 6.10, Rhondda Cynon Taf and the Vale of Glamorgan broadly reflect the national Wales average in respect of the various housing tenures. These areas comprise a combination of urban and rural areas, whereas Cardiff is principally urban in nature. Housing tenure for Cardiff has greater fluctuations, likely to be as a result of it representing the largest urban area within Wales, being capital city and other factors such as approximately 10% of its population being students who are typically more transient in nature.
6.61 Of the households across the Regional Study Area an average of 32.8% of properties are owned outright with the Wales average being 35.4% (Census, 2011). Rhondda Cynon Taf and the Vale of Glamorgan therefore broadly reflect the national average, whilst this type of tenure in Cardiff is approximately 10% below the national average of Wales. Those owning their property with a mortgage or loan are broadly comparable to the national average (32%) with a 34.6% average across the Regional Study Area.
6.62 The proportion of households socially renting (from the Council or other) varies across the Regional Study Area, being highest in Cardiff (17.1%) and lowest in the Vale of Glamorgan (11.9%). The proportion of households socially renting in Rhondda Cynon Taf is 13.8%. These figures compare to the Regional Study Area average of 14.3% and a national average of 16.4%.
6.63 The average percentage of privately rented households (landlords, letting agency or other) across the Regional Study Area is 16.7% with 14.2% the national average. In Rhondda Cynon Taf and the Vale of Glamorgan the percentage of privately rented households is broadly aligned with the national average, with 13.7% and 14.6% of properties defined as these tenures respectively. Again, Cardiff is an anomaly with 21.9% of households privately renting. Again, this higher figure is likely to reflect the high level of privately rented accommodation associated with the large student population in Cardiff.
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Table 6.10: Housing Tenure (Wales and Regional Study Area)22
Regional Rhondda Vale of Housing Tenure Wales Cardiff Study Area Cynon Taf Glamorgan (avg %)
All Count 1,302,676 142,557 99,663 53,505 295,725 households Count 1,302,676 142,557 99,663 53,505 295,725
% 100 10.9 7.7 4.1 7.6
Owned Count 461,370 37,788 36,338 18,954 93,080 (outright) % 35.4 26.5 36.5 35.4 32.8
Owned Count 417,284 46,474 34,422 19,693 100,589 (Mortgage/ Loan) % 32 32.6 34.5 36.8 34.6
Shared Count 4,476 639 150 125 914 Ownership (Part % 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 Owned/ Part Rented)
Social Count 128,302 13,547 6,836 4,025 24,408 Rented (From Local % 9.8 9.5 6.9 7.5 8 Authority)
Social Count 86,609 10,827 6,837 2,329 19,993 Rented (Other) % 6.6 7.6 6.9 4.4 6.3
Private Count 164,792 28,972 12,334 6,780 48,086 Rented (Landlord or % 12.7 20.3 12.4 12.7 15.1 Letting Agency)
22 UK Census Data 2011, “Household Type (Quick Stats)” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: http://www.ukcensusdata.com/wales-w92000004#sthash.v3QdErGo.dpbs
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Regional Rhondda Vale of Housing Tenure Wales Cardiff Study Area Cynon Taf Glamorgan (avg %)
Private Count 19,462 2,248 1,270 1,0333 4,551 Rented (other) % 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.6
Living Rent Count 20,381 2,062 1,476 566 4,104 Free % 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2
6.64 At a local level, Table 6.11 details the figures relevant to the Local Study Area.
6.65 The Local Study Area has a higher average home ownership owned outright at 40.6%, compared to 32.8% of the Regional Study Area. Those owned with a mortgage or loan is also higher across the Local Study Area at 44.8%, compared to the Regional Study Area of 34.6% and national average of 32.0%.
6.66 The proportion of households socially renting (from the Council or other) varies across the Local Study Area, being highest in Pentyrch (10.5%) and lowest in the Creigiau/ St Fagans Ward at (1.5%). These figures compare to the Regional Study Area average of 14.3% and a national average of 16.4%.
6.67 The average percentage of privately rented households (landlord, letting agency or other) across the Local Study Area has a significantly lower average at 8.3% of households, compared to the Regional Study Area average of 16.7% and national average of 14.2%. The percentages of privately rented households across the five Wards are largely comparable, although Pentyrch has the lowest with 6.3% of households and Radyr the most at 9.5% of households.
Table 6.11: Housing Tenure (Local Study Area)23
Local Creigiau/ Peterstone Housing Tenure Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study St Fagans Super Ely Area
Owned Count 741 566 1,030 1,197 446 3,980 (outright) % 37.3 39.9 40.4 36.6 48.8 40.6
23 UK Census Data 2011, “Household Type (Quick Stats) – detailed stats” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: http://www.ukcensusdata.com/cardiff-w06000015#sthash.Z1mKbp7f.Nw6AGsUX.dpbs
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Local Creigiau/ Peterstone Housing Tenure Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study St Fagans Super Ely Area
Owned Count 1,027 599 1,172 1,566 334 4,698 (Mortgage/ Loan) % 51.6 42.2 45.9 47.9 36.6 44.8
Shared Count 3 0 4 4 1 12.0 Ownership (Part % 0.2 0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Owned/ Part Rented)
Social Count 14 103 26 74 36 253 Rented (From Local % 0.7 7.3 1.0 2.3 3.9 3.0 Authority)
Social Count 16 46 58 104 6 230 Rented (Other) % 0.8 3.2 2.3 3.2 0.7 2.0
Private Count 155 72 222 272 67 788 Rented (Landlord % 7.8 5.1 8.7 8.3 7.3 7.4 or Letting Agency)
Private Count 13 17 20 32 6 88 Rented (other) % 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9
Living Rent Count 20 17 20 22 17 96 Free % 1 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.1
House Prices
6.68 According to the latest available Land Registry figures, in December 2018, the average property price across Wales was just over £161,845. In Cardiff the figure at the same point in time was just below £205,000. For Rhondda Cynon Taf and the Vale of Glamorgan the figures were just over
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£110,000 and £232,000 respectively. The average price breakdown by property type is provided in Table 6.12 below. Typically, the average house prices are highest across the Vale of Glamorgan and lowest in Rhondda Cynon Taf, with Cardiff in between. The two exceptions to this, according to the Land Registry figures, is the average detached and terrace properties which are higher in Cardiff than across the Vale of Glamorgan.
6.69 It should be noted that the Land Registry is just one of multiple sources of house price data. Other data sources are available; however, it is considered Land Registry represent accurate provisions given transaction costs.
Table 6.12: Land Registry Average House Prices (December 2018) (Wales and Regional Study Area)24
Regional Property Rhondda Vale of Wales Cardiff Study Area Type Cynon Taf Glamorgan (avg value)
Average £161,845 £205,443 £110,353 £232,883 £182,893
Detached £245,785 £384,319 £189,610 £381,219 £318,383
Semi- £156,068 £234,960 £117,047 £287,174 £213,060 detached
Terrace £124,968 £193,056 £91,466 £182,189 £155,570
Flat £113,926 £143,304 £73,808 £149,273 £122,128
Housing Need
Cardiff Council
6.70 Despite being slightly outdated, the LHMA 201325 notes that ‘Cardiff faces a number of challenges and opportunities posed by an increasingly diverse population, full-time higher education students…. and the arrival of some 4,000 people seeking employment as recent economic migrants.’ The LHMA recognises six housing character areas, with the site falling in the ‘rural’ housing market area to the north west of the city.
24 Land Registry, “UK Price Index, December 2018” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi 25 City of Cardiff Council, “LHMA Update 2013” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Planning/Local-Development- Plan/EvidenceBaseDocs/Local%20Housing%20Market%20Assessment%20Update%202013%20Final.pdf
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6.71 The assessment notes that, the (net) need for affordable housing in 2013 was 168 additional affordable housing units per annum. The largest proportional shortfall of affordable housing is found within the ‘student’ and ‘inner city’ sub-areas, followed by the ‘suburbs’ sub-area. The ‘rural’ sub-area, where the site is located, has the lowest identified level of affordable housing need.
6.72 In order to meet its identified residential requirement, the Cardiff LDP makes provision for 45,415 new dwellings (including a 4,000 dwelling flexibility allowance) to deliver a housing requirement of 41,415 new dwellings and 40,000 new jobs in Cardiff between 2006 and 2026. The proposed site contributes towards this need and is considered strategically important in the delivery of the LDP growth.
Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council
6.73 Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council (RCTBC) has prepared a Local Housing Market Assessment (2017/18 – 2022/23)26. Overall, the Assessment revealed stark differences in housing market buoyancy across the County Borough; with demand in Taf being relatively higher than across the rest of the locality. However, house price to income ratios are far greater across Taf, rendering affordability more of a significant issue in many parts of area. Elsewhere, the strength of existing local connections were plainly evident; generating housing market ‘hotspots’ in parts of the Rhondda and Cynon Valleys.
6.74 Household sizes were also found to be increasingly smaller across all markets and tenures, which is a reflection of societal changes in household formation. This presents an affordability issue for a notable proportion of the local population given the dominance of larger terraced properties across much of the dwelling stock. This phenomenon combined with a contrast between needs and aspirations has resulted in longstanding low demand for larger properties in certain area. Indeed, empty properties are a significant local issue and there were nearly 3,000 private sector homes vacant for six months or more across the County Borough in April 2016. This issue is habitually most acute within several parts of the Rhondda, although empty properties are present in nearly all markets, which represents not only a problem but a resource to help increase housing supply alongside new build.
6.75 Whilst assessing the local housing market as a whole, this study also specifically calculated the deficit of affordable housing within the County Borough. Overall, there is a need for 737.51 affordable housing units per annum, comprising 270.04 low cost home ownership units and 467.47 social rented units.
6.76 In order to meet its identified residential requirement, the Rhondda Cynon Taf LDP (March 2011) identifies a requirement for 14,385 new residential units over its plan period up to 2021. The plans
26 Rhondda Cynon Taff, “Local Housing Market Assessment 2017/18 – 2022/23,” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: https://www.rctcbc.gov.uk/EN/Resident/Housing/RelatedDocuments/LocalHousingMarketAssessmentSummaryRep ort.pdf
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for the construction of 959 dwellings per annum, this is an increase of 50% over previous build rates.
Vale of Glamorgan Council
6.77 The most recent LHMA for the Vale of Glamorgan was conducted in 201727 (2017 – 2022). The LHMA assess the housing market in the Vale of Glamorgan County; considering all geographical area, at ward level and or by major settlements.
6.78 In assessing the housing market as a whole, the LHMA for the Vale of Glamorgan calculates the net need for affordable housing, including social rented housing and intermediate housing products, over the next five years. The key figures for the annual net need for affordable housing in the Vale of Glamorgan is: 576 units per annum, comprising of 479 units of social rented accommodation and 97 units of intermediate housing.
6.79 The LHMA 2017 utilises the most recent population projections compiled by the Welsh Government in which they have revised their original projections and are now estimating the number of households in the Vale of Glamorgan in 2015 to be 54,920, increased to 55,452 in 2017, and that this will grow by a further 1305 in 56,757 in 2022.28
6.80 In order to meet its identified residential requirement, the Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan (2011 – 2026) identifies a requirement for 9,460 new residential units over its plan period up to 2026.
Summary of LHMA for Regional Study Area
6.81 Across the Regional Study Area, the various LHMAs indicate a significant requirement for additional housing growth, both in terms of market housing and the provision of affordable housing. There is a general recognition of the need for family housing – of varying sizes.
6.82 All three local authorities comprising the Regional Study Area have an identified requirement for affordable housing. There is an acceptance that this cannot be delivered immediately, with requirements over long time periods. The needs, however, vary between and within local authorities. For example, there is a greater need across some of the northern valleys areas.
Economy and Employment – Overall Trends
6.83 From September 2007 to September 2011, jobs in the UK construction industry had declined from 2.34 million to 2.07 million. The latest data for construction-related employment in Great Britain shows that there has been an increase by 3.8% in 2017, exceeding its pre-downturn peak of 2007
27 The Vale of Glamorgan, “Local Housing Market Assessment 2017” [online] (Accessed February 2019) Available: https://www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/Documents/Living/Housing/Local-Housing-Market-Assessment-LHMA.pdf 28 Vale of Glamorgan, “LHMA 2017 (2017- 2022)” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/Documents/Living/Housing/Local-Housing-Market-Assessment-LHMA.pdf
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to reach the highest level on record. However, this increase in jobs has mainly centred around London, the South East and the North West of England.
Figure 6.7: Regional concentration of construction firms as a percentage, in Great Britain 2017 (English Regions, Scotland and Wales)29
6.84 The above Figure 6.6 shows the concentration of construction firms as a percentage by region in Great Britain. It is important to note that Figure 6.6 relates to where individual firms are registered, and therefore despite representing a good indicator of construction firms’ activity, construction firms are known to carry out work across wide geographical areas, not just the region in which they are registered. The number of construction firms registered in Wales increased marginally in 2017, but as shown in Figure 6.6, the number of firms operating in Wales remains relatively small in comparison with the rest of Great Britain.
6.85 The most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS, December 2018) show that construction output fell by £388 million in December 2018 relative to November 2018. This was the largest month-on-month fall since June 2012. The biggest decline was seen in private housing new work, which fell by £219 million. This can be attributed to the shortage of available skills in the construction sector. As such, opportunities exist, particularly in Wales to enhance the skill set in the construction sector.
6.86 In terms of economic activity more generally, There are 524,131 persons ‘economically active’ persons (defined as residents between the ages of 16 and 74) living within the Regional Study Area, according to the 2011 census. Table 6.13 below identifies that the percentage of people working
29 ONS, “Construction Statistics: Number 19, 2018 edition” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/articles/constructionstatistics/number192 018edition
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in part and full time work in Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Vale of Glamorgan are 67%, 63% and 69% respectively. This compares favourably with the national average of 65%.
6.87 In terms of unemployment, again all three areas align closely with the national average of 4.31% - Cardiff being 4.44%, RCT 4.71%, and VoG 4.31%.
6.88 The percentage of retired residents (of the defined working population, so this excludes those residents over the age of 74) within the Vale of Glamorgan and Rhondda Cynon Taf closely aligns to the national average of 16%. The percentage of those retired in Cardiff is much lower at 10.40%.
Table 6.13: Economic Activity (Wales and Regional Study Area)30
Regional Rhondda Vale of Study Economic Activity Wales Cardiff Cynon Taf Glamorgan Area (Average)
Total Count 2,245,166 260,268 172,047 91,816 524,131 Economically Active Population (2017)
Economically Count 1,476,735 174,753 108,730 63,384 346,867 Active (Total) % 65.77 67.14 63.20 69.03 66.46
Employee Count 1,112,370 129,638 84,293 48,612 262,543
% 49.55 49.81 48.99 52.95 50.58
Self Count 194,029 18,317 11,033 8,531 37,881 Employed % 8.64 7.04 6.41 9.29 7.58
Unemployed Count 96,689 11566 8,104 3,956 23,626
% 4.31 4.44 4.71 4.31 4.49
30 UK Census Data 2011, “Economic Activity” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: http://www.ukcensusdata.com/wales-w92000004#sthash.41h4Dv4A.dpbs
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Regional Rhondda Vale of Study Economic Activity Wales Cardiff Cynon Taf Glamorgan Area (Average)
Full Time Count 73,647 15,232 5,300 2,285 22,817 Student % 3.28 5.85 3.08 2.49 3.81
Economically Count 768,431 85,515 63,317 28,432 177,264 inactive (total) % 34.23 32.86 36.80 30.97 33.54
Retired Count 361,501 27,061 27,595 14,912 69,568
% 16.10 10.40 16.04 16.24 14.23
Long-Term Count 140,760 13,477 14,854 4,414 32,745 Sick or Disabled % 6.27 5.18 8.63 4.81 6.21
Other Count 266,170 44,977 20,868 9,106 74,951
% 11.86 17.28 12.13 9.92 13.11
Percentages given are a percentage of the total economically active population. Values may not sum due to rounding
Table 6.14: Economic Activity (Local Study Area)31
Creigiau/ Local Peterstone Economic Activity St Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study Super Ely Fagans Area
All Usual Count 3,836 2,596 4,614 5,872 1,677 18,595 Residents Aged 16-74
Economically Count 2,836 1,803 3,392 4,307 1,113 13,451 Active (total)
31 UK Census Data 2011, “Economic Data, Detailed Stats” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: http://www.ukcensusdata.com/cardiff-w06000015#sthash.GEAwhT5j.dpbs
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Creigiau/ Local Peterstone Economic Activity St Pentyrch Radyr Pontyclun Study Super Ely Fagans Area
% 73.93 69.45 73.52 73.35 66.37 71.32
Employee Count 2,199 1,384 2,675 3,453 755 10,466
% 57.33 53.31 57.98 58.80 45.02 54.49
Self Count 442 297 497 560 296 2,092 Employed % 11.52 11.44 10.77 9.54 17.65 12.18
Unemployed Count 68 58 94 146 32 398
% 1.77 2.23 2.04 2.49 1.91 2.09
Full-time Count 127 64 126 148 30 495 Student % 3.31 2.47 2.73 2.52 1.79 2.56
Economically Count 1,000 793 1,222 1,565 564 5,144 Inactive (total) % 26.07 30.55 26.48 26.65 33.63 28.68
Retired Count 639 495 691 950 345 3,120
% 16.66 19.07 14.98 16.18 20.57 17.49
Long Term Count 84 72 102 187 38 483 Sick or Disabled % 2.19 2.77 2.21 3.18 2.27 2.52
Other Count 277 226 429 428 181 1,541
% 7.22 8.71 9.3 7.29 10.79 8.66
Percentages given are a percentage of the total economically active population. Values may not sum due to rounding
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6.89 As outlined in Table 6.14 above, unemployment within the five LSOA’s is below the national regional averages, with between 1.77% and 2.49% persons of an economically active age unemployed. This compares to a national average of 4.31% and a Regional Study Area average of 4.47%. The percentage of persons economically inactive due to long term sickness or disability is also lower across the five LSOA’s varying between 2.19% and 3.18%. The national figure is 6.27%. Notably, however, across the three local authorities making up the Regional Study Area, Rhondda Cynon Taf is the worst performing with 8.63% of the economically active population inactive as a result of long-term sickness or disability.
Community Buildings
6.90 Background Technical Paper No.6 – Infrastructure Plan (September 2013)32 contains a detailed assessment of community facilities across Cardiff and was used as a reliable source of data to inform the Cardiff LDP. The Background Technical Paper identifies libraries, sport centres and indoor recreation facilities and community hubs and facilities as community buildings. The nearest and most relevant of these facilities are identified in turn below.
Libraries
6.91 The Background Technical Paper identifies two nearby branch libraries. Radyr library, the nearest facility, is located approximately 4.6 miles (7.4km) to the east of the site. Tongwynlais library is located approximately 5.6 miles (7.4km) to the east. Cardiff Central library is found approximately 15.7miles (25.3km) to the south east.
6.92 Policy KP2 identifies the potential for a multifunctional community leisure facility including library facility as part of Sites D (Land north of J33) and Site E (South of Creigiau).
6.93 Radyr, Tongwynlais and Cardiff libraries are still open and operating as per the background documents produced to support the LDP allocations.
Table 6.15: Libraries (Cardiff only)33
Distance from Site Library Postcode Type Miles Km
Radyr Library CF15 8DF 4.6 7.4 Branch
32 City of Cardiff Council, “Background Technical Paper No.6 – Infrastructure Plan (2013) [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Planning/Local-Development-Plan/LDP-Process-to- adoption/Pages/default.aspx 33 City of Cardiff Council, “Background Technical Paper No.6 – Infrastructure Plan (2013) [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Planning/Local-Development-Plan/LDP-Process-to- adoption/Pages/default.aspx
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Distance from Site Library Postcode Type Miles Km
Tongwynlais CF15 7NP 4.6 7.4 Branch Library
Cardiff Central CF10 1FL 15.7 25.3 Central Library
Sports Centres and Indoor Recreation Facilities
6.94 Built sports facilities includes swimming pools, sports halls and associated facilities. The closest facility is Fairwater Leisure Centre, located approximately 4.3 miles (6.9 km) to the south east of the site. Table 6.16 below provides a more complete review of the closest sport and recreation facilities to the site. Some of these facilities, such as the White Water Rafting Centre, Cardiff Riding School, Cardiff International Pool, Cardiff Ice Rink and the Cardiff International Sports Stadium are used by neighbouring authorities, including the Vale of Glamorgan, given their specialism and catchments.
Table 6.16: Indoor Recreation Facility or Sports Centre (Cardiff only)34
Postcode Distance from Site Facility Miles Km
Fairwater Leisure CF5 3LL 4.3 6.9 Centre
Western Leisure CF5 5HJ 6.2 10 Centre
Cardiff International CF11 8AZ 11.2 18 Sports Centre
Cardiff Riding School CF5 2AX 7.7 12.4
Maindy Centre CF14 3AJ 7.4 11.9
34 City of Cardiff Council, “Background Technical Paper No.6 – Infrastructure Plan (2013) [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Planning/Local-Development-Plan/LDP-Process-to- adoption/Pages/default.aspx
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Postcode Distance from Site Facility Miles Km
Cardiff International CF11 0JS 13.1 21 Pool
Channel View Leisure CF11 7HB 13.8 22.2 Centre
Llanishen Leisure CF14 5EB 7.6 12.2 Centre
Healthcare Information
6.95 Residential development may place greater demand on healthcare infrastructure such as hospitals, GP surgeries, and dental surgeries given the increased population it will bring, albeit through phased development.
Hospitals
6.96 The site falls within the area of the Cardiff & Vale University Health Board. The Royal Glamorgan Hospital and University Hospital of Wales provide local medical services for major acute purposes and are located under 15 miles (24km) from the site. A summary of all nearby hospitals is provided in Table 6.17 below.
Table 6.17: Nearby Hospitals35
Hospital Postcode Distance from Site Type 24 Hour A&E
Miles Km
Whitchurch CF14 7XB 8.8 14.2 Psychiatric No Hospital
Rookwood CF5 2YN 5.3 8.5 Specialist No Hospital Acute
35 NHS Direct Wales, “Local Services Search” [online] Accessed: [March 2019] Available: https://www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk/localservices/
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Hospital Postcode Distance from Site Type 24 Hour A&E
Royal CF72 8XR 3.9 6.3 Major Acute Yes Glamorgan Hospital
Children’s CF14 4XW 7.6 12.2 Community No Hospital for Wales
University CF14 4XW 7.6 12.2 Major Acute Yes Hospital for Wales
University CF14 4XW 8.0 12.9 Specialist No Dental Acute Hospital
University CF64 2XX 13.3 21.4 Major Acute No Hospital Llandough
Barry CF62 8YH 12.5 20.1 Community No Hospital
Ysbyty Cwm CF45 4BZ 14.2 Community No Cynon
GP Surgeries
6.97 A search of GP surgeries within 4.00 miles (6.4km) from the site has been undertaken to provide the baseline information with which to assess the effect of the demand generated by the proposals. The results are provided within Table 6.18.
6.98 The nearest existing GP surgery, is the Parc Canol Group Practice located in Creigiau, is found within 1.3 miles (2.09km) from the site and would likely be the local surgery for residents generated by this site. Based on research undertaken to inform this assessment, it is understood that the surgery is accepting NHS patients.
6.99 Alternative GP surgeries are found within Pentyrch, Radyr, Taffs Well and Pontyclun.
6.100 While there is no official statutory limits regards patient per GP, but a maximum of 1,800 patients is a common recommendation by Primary Healthcare Trusts. This can change depending, on a number of variables for example deprivation of the area, age profile of the practice population and
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the services the practice offers. A number of the surgeries, such as Parc Canol Group Practice and Talbot Green Practice are branch surgeries with a number of surgery sites. As such, the number of GPs and patients are not representative of the individual surgeries and represent the branch as a whole. For Pentyrch Surgery, the patient numbers represent the Pentyrch surgery, however the number of GPs is given across both Pentyrch and Llandaff Surgeries given that the 7 registered GPs work across both sites.
6.101 Four of the six tabled GP surgeries currently meet the recommended ratio of 1:1800 patients, with the remaining two surgeries, Parc Canol Group Practice and Talbot Green Group Practice marginally exceeding the ratio.
Table 6.18: GP Surgeries36
Accepting No. Surgery Postcode Distance from Site No. GPs Ratio NHS Patients Patients
Miles Km
Parc Canol CF15 9SE 1.3 2.09 9 17,500 1:1944 Yes Group Practice 37
Pentyrch CF15 9PY 2.0 3.22 7 950 1:136 Yes Surgery38
Talbot Green CF72 8AJ 3.2 5.15 6 11,500 1:1917 Yes Group Practice39
Old School CF72 9AA 3.2 5.15 12 12,000 1:1000 Unknown Surgery
Taffs Well CF15 7YG 4.0 6.44 4 6,000 1:1500 Yes Medical Centre
36 Practice Websites [online] and NHS Direct Wales, “Local Services Search” [online] Accessed: [March 2019] Available: https://www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk/localservices/ 37 Branch surgery covering both Creigiau and Garth View Surgery. Number of GPs given across both sites 38 Branch surgery covering both Pentyrch and Llandaff Surgery. Number of GPs given across both sites. Patient numbers for Pentyrch Surgery only. 39 Branch surgery covering both Pontyclun and Gwaunmiskin Surgery. Number of GPs given across both sites.
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Accepting No. Surgery Postcode Distance from Site No. GPs Ratio NHS Patients Patients
Radyr CF15 8EW 3.8 6.12 6 8500 1:1417 Yes Medical Centre
Dental Surgeries
6.102 In terms of Dental surgeries, no such facility is available within Creigiau itself, however, it is noted that there are three dental surgeries within a 3.00 mile (4.82km) search area, two of which are accepting new NHS patients.
Table 6.19: Dental Surgeries
Distance from Accepting Practice Postcode Site (miles) NHS Patients
Matthew Newland CF72 9DP 2.9m No
Huw Wilding Dental Surgery CF72 8EX 2.9m No
Crown Hill, The Dental Surgery CF38 2NR 2.9 No (although may be accepting in September 2019)
IDH 441-444 Ltd, MyDentist CF72 8AE 3m No
Brilliant Dental Care, 44 Talbot Road, Talbot CF72 8AF 3m No Green, CF72 8AF
Nearest Dentist Accepting NHS Patients Beddau Dental Surgery, 1 The Crossroads, CF38 2AD 3.4 miles Yes Beddau, Pontypridd.
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Pharmacies
6.103 The nearest pharmacy is in located within Creigiau, to the north of the site, with another located within Pentyrch. Both of these pharmacies are located approximately 1.65 miles (2.65km) away from the site.
Table 6.20: Nearby Pharmacies40
Distance from site Pharmacy Postcode Miles Km
Creigiau Pharmacy CF15 9SE 1.2 2
Pentyrch Pharmacy CF15 9TN 2.1 3.4
Education Facilities
6.104 Schools in the study area are managed by the three local authorities. A two tier (primary and secondary) framework is operated. In terms of provision of education facilities to the application site, Table 6.21 shows the primary and secondary education facilities in relation to the application site. The table also provides an approximate distance from the site in identifying the nearest schools to the site. All the schools within Table 6.21 fall within the remit of Cardiff as the local education authority.
Table 6.21: Schools Catchment and Details (Cardiff only)
Distance 41 No. on Surplus/ Post from site Capacity School Gender42 Type43 Roll Deficit code (2018)44 (2018)45 Capacity Miles Km
Primary
40 NHS Direct Wales, “Local Services Search” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk/localservices/ 41 Using CF15 9DS 42 M = Male, F = Female 43 EP = English Primary, ES = English Secondary, WP = Welsh Primary, WS = Welsh Secondary 44 School Guide, “Primary Secondary School Search” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.schoolguide.co.uk/primary-schools/CF15%209DS%20Cardiff%2C%20Cardiff) 45 School Guide, “Primary and Secondary School Search” [online] (Accessed: March 2019) Available: https://www.schoolguide.co.uk/primary-schools/CF15%209DS%20Cardiff%2C%20Cardiff)
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Distance 41 No. on Surplus/ Post from site Capacity School Gender42 Type43 Roll Deficit code (2018)44 (2018)45 Capacity Miles Km
Ysgol Gynradd CF15 1.1 1.77 M / F EP/ 421 422 -1 Creigiau 9NN WP Primary School
Pentyrch CF15 1.8 2.90 M / F EP 134 141 -7 Primary School 9QL
Bryn Deri CF15 5.3 8.53 M / F EP 255 289 -34 Primary School 8RD
Radyr Primary CF15 4.6 7.40 M / F EP 450 317 133 School 8DF
Secondary
Radyr CF15 4.0 6.44 M / F ES 1281 1338 - 57 Comprehensive 8XG School
Ysgol Gyfun CF5 3PZ 4.5 7.24 M / F WS 1083 1085 -2 Gymraeg Plasmawr
Public Open Space
6.105 There are some facilities within Creigiau itself which are located within 800m walking distance from the site. Creigiau Recreation Ground provides football pitch, cricket pitch, tennis courts, skate park, and an equipped play area. Whilst not a formal open space, to the north of the recreation ground is a large allotment.
6.106 In addition, a further equipped play area is located in the centre of the village opposite Creigiau Inn.
6.107 As part of the approved Site D scheme at Junction 33, a range of public open spaces will be provided – including formal sports provision, equipped play areas and informal and formal open spaces.
Summary of Baseline Conditions
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6.108 As stated within the LDP, significant population growth is projected for Cardiff and the Regional Study Area and with it the need to deliver appropriate housing to accommodate the increase.
6.109 Data for the various study levels suggests the existing levels of housing tenure, health and WIMD at a local level are broadly in line with corresponding data for Wales, demonstrating that the area does not suffer particularly from high levels of deprivation overall. Across the fourteen LSOAs that surround the site to the defined parameters represent some of the least deprived in Wales. In contrast, neighbouring urban areas can demonstrate relatively high levels of deprivation.
6.110 There are existing provisions of community buildings, healthcare infrastructure and education facilities within the surrounding study areas. However, some of these aspects currently exceed capacity with new or improved facilities being provided through the adjoining Site D development. However, development should only be responsible for mitigating against the additional demands it leads to, not correcting existing and acknowledged deficits.
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Assessment without Mitigation
6.111 This section identifies the potential socio-economic impacts of the proposal in socio-economic terms both during Construction Phase and during the Operational Phase of the development without any mitigation in place. Throughout this section, the following main elements will be considered:
• Economy and Employment: The impact on employment (local and non-local) is quantified and assessed in terms of job creation and indirect effects resulting from the construction phase and occupation of the dwellings; • Housing and Population – provision of housing including affordable and changes in population size and structure; • Community Impact: both in terms of impact on services and facilities, but also amenity (particularly during the construction phase); • Impact on Crime; and • Wider Regeneration Impacts.
Construction Phase
Economy and Employment
6.112 The project will undoubtedly entail significant construction over an ongoing development timescale. The development will include approximately 650 dwellings. The scale of this development will help support construction firms operating in the region and provide jobs in the construction industry.
6.113 The proposed development will lead to the creation of new direct and indirect jobs – a significant proportion of temporary jobs are created as a result of site preparation and construction which, owing to the phasing and scale of the development will span over a number of years.
6.114 Occupational and skill demand in the housing construction sector revolves around specialist skills i.e. electricians, plumbers, bricklayers, carpenters and plant operating trade. These skills would tend to be contract labour offered by construction/building firms locally. In addition, low skill manual labour would be expected to be in demand. These would be general operatives. In this case, employment tends to be contracted via Job Centres and Employment Agencies on a needs basis.
6.115 By virtue of the economic downturn, the lack of activity in the local economy housing market suggests that there is not expected to be major construction/service skill shortage problems in the short to medium term across the Regional Study Area. The local economy has the capacity to support the low skills demand, through unemployment/self-employed, whilst the higher-level skills would be supplied by approved suppliers identified through construction skills registers and recruited by the builder. Prior to the tendering process for construction contracts, it is not possible to accurately identify the origin of the construction personnel and hence predict whether they
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would represent an increase (short-term or permanent) in the local population. However, clearly there is a significant opportunity to use local suppliers during the construction period.
Direct Employment
6.116 It is difficult to quantify the employment and number of FTE jobs generated during the construction of the proposed development for two principle reasons. First, the development is currently only at an outline stage, with only the broad parameters and scope of development known. Second, there is no industry standard or guidance available to estimate the number of jobs created by different forms of development. However, for housing, the Home Builders Federation (Wales) has predicted that 1.5 jobs are created directly in the construction industry for every home built. This statistic is supported by the Construction Industry Training Board. Figures for the wider infrastructure works are less clear. Using these figures applied to the figure of approximately 650 dwellings would indicate support for some 975 ‘job years’ overall. Job years are used given the varying employment levels over time during the projected development.
6.117 It is important to note that, due to the nature of the construction industry and different stages involved within such a comprehensive and strategic development, not all trades would be required on the site permanently and some will be on site for less time than others. The construction process would include a range of occupational levels including unskilled or labouring jobs to more senior positions, as well as across a range of professional disciplines. The project could facilitate the growth of the local construction industry, thus enabling firms to expand and potentially take on employees. It is therefore feasible that the project could have a significant positive effect on the economic well-being of the area, not just over the build programme.
Indirect / Multiplier Effects
6.118 In addition to direct employment, the presence of the construction and professional workforce during construction would also have an indirect impact on the local economy associated with their expenditure in local businesses. English Partnerships (2002) found that major construction projects can often indirectly generate significant additional temporary employment in businesses that benefit from the local spending of construction workers, as well as sub-contracts, services and supplies needed by the contractors. This is known as the ‘multiplier effect’ – an initial change in aggregate demand can have a significant final impact as it stimulates further injections of demand.
6.119 The development proposal will set off a chain reaction in increases of expenditure, such as through the sale of building materials, architectural services, legal services and insurance. This in turn can result in jobs close to the site where workers will spend their wages, generating an increase in demand for goods and services and generating a growth in the (local) economy.
6.120 The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) suggest that the construction sector has a high economic multiplier effect as a consequence of its large value chain, generating an increase in demand for goods and services and generating a growth in the (local) economy.
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6.121 The House Builder’s Federation (HBF) estimates that employment in the supply is at least twice that of the construction itself – so in the order of 1,950 ‘job years’ could be indirectly supported by this project. Indirect jobs created are expected to be low skill service type occupations ranging across retail to catering. Local DIY and retail goods suppliers may employ staff as a result of increased contracts/orders. Again, there is no evidence of shortages in clerical sales staff occupations.
6.122 It is reasonable to conclude that the secondary impacts upon the economy during each of the various construction phases would have a notable beneficial effect at the local level.
6.123 Accordingly, the effect of the proposed development on the economy without mitigation would be of major beneficial significance (given the scale of employment generated and the potential spend on businesses). This effect is temporary, but may be maintained for up to 5 years. This has the potential to be maximised even further depending on the scale of local labour sourcing that takes place.
Housing and Population
6.124 None identified given that no changes to the population or housing will occur during construction.
Community Impacts
6.125 It is expected that the construction of the proposed development will impact in a number of ways on the amenity of the residents in the neighbouring residential areas. These community impacts are associated with subjects which are assessed elsewhere in the ES, therefore do not contribute directly to the assessment of the net socio-economic impact. A summary of these expected impacts is set out in relation in to the following environment effects and their relevant chapters:
• Transport, Movement and Access – Chapter 7; • Noise – Chapter 12; • Air Quality – Chapter 13.
6.126 The potential for businesses and residents to be adversely affected by construction traffic has been considered in the above chapters. Without mitigation, it is expected that the development would have a moderate adverse impact during construction considering the sensitive receptors within the immediate locality to the site.
6.127 In terms of community services and facilities during the construction phase, no impacts have been identified.
Impact on Crime
6.128 The site, as existing, currently comprises mainly farmland (mainly Grade 3b semi improved grassland) set amongst blocks and belts of woodland, hedgerows and trees. The site therefore currently generates little in way of crime.
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6.129 The construction phase of the development is unlikely to result in any particular increase in criminal activity, however, there may be some as a result of expensive plant and tools being on-site. The impact, however, is considered to be negligible.
Wider Regeneration Impact
6.130 None identified.
Operational Phase
Economy and Employment
Direct Economic/ Employment Events
6.131 Given the proposal is limited to residential use, there are very limited opportunities for direct economic/employment opportunities resulting from the scheme. There may be opportunities for employment as part of a Management Company for the site, however, it is difficult to determine the likely scale and employment opportunities resulting from such an operation at this stage.
6.132 While no guarantees can be made, employees are likely to be recruited locally, from residents of the proposed development and from existing residents of Cardiff and the surrounding area, therefore supporting the local and regional economy.
Indirect Economic / Employment Effects
6.133 The development is likely to have significant in-direct / off site economic benefits. Best practice suggests that a project of this strategic scale will have significant knock on effects on a local area’s economy. These are considered as indirect multiplier effects which include:
• Supply linkage multiplier: such effects occur due to purposes made as a result of the project and further purchases associated with linked firms along the supply chain; and • Income/ induced multiplier effect: such effects are associated with local expenditure as a result of those who derive incomes from the direct and supply linkage impacts of the project.
6.134 Indirect jobs could also be created in local services employment as a result of the additional demand generated from net addition population. Local services employment may arise through existing services but also any additional services introduced to support the development.
6.135 There are some direct, but mainly indirect benefits of providing housing to serve the existing local economy and the provision of new jobs, and as such the proposal will therefore have a moderate beneficial impact.
Housing and Population
6.136 When comparing the latest census data (2011) with the 2001 census, the population of Cardiff grew by 13% over the period between 2001 and 2011. This growth significantly exceeded the
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national average growth of 5.52%. The LHMAs identify a continued housing need across the Regional Study Area. The provision of housing will help address this need and address the increase in population and households in Cardiff.
6.137 The proposed development is to provide for approximately 650 residential units, comprising of a mixture of one, two, three, four and five bed properties. Based on the number of predicted dwellings, at a rate of 2.3 people per dwelling (based on WG 2014 Household Projection for 2019), it is calculated that the proposed development will increase the population of the area by approximately 1495 people. This is an approximate figure for when the development is fully built out and occupied and is subject to change.
6.138 Assuming such a figure will see an increase in the Creigiau / St Fagans Ward population from 5,153 (2011 Census) to a total of 6,648. This represents a 29.0% increase in population to the Creigiau / St Fagans Ward once the scheme is fully built out and occupied and a 0.43% increase in Cardiff’s population (from 346,090 (2011 Census) to 347,585). These figures represent an approximate number as the range of house types will
6.139 The development, assuming full occupation at 1,495 people will result in a 5.88 % increase on the Local Study Area population (from 25,428 to 26,923) and a 0.21% increase to the Regional Study Area (from 706, 836 to 708,331).
6.140 The scheme will seek to deliver both market and affordable housing. Affordable housing will be delivered at the required rate of 30%. This will significantly enhance the opportunities for people to afford housing that meets their requirements, such as in terms of size and proximity to place of work and local services and transport links.
6.141 The development of this strategic scale will inevitably take place in development phases, at rates and a completion date yet to be determined. The pace and phasing of construction and sales is highly dependent upon a wide range of economic factors which are unknown, and to some extent unpredictable, at this stage.
6.142 The overall increase in the number of households (and the provision of a mix of type and tenure of housing) and population will have a minor positive impact at the local and regional level. In terms of significance of the increase in households and population this will result in a major beneficial impact at the local level with discernible benefits including the provision of additional housing to assist towards Cardiff Council’s housing targets and to provide an important source of additional dwellings to meet housing requirements. These impacts will be long term and are expected to be of local importance. The site’s allocation within the adopted LDP is in order to address the need for new homes, with the proposed development helping to meet this need. The proposals will also deliver a significant number of affordable housing units, resulting in a significant positive impact.
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Community Impacts
6.143 The proposed development is both expected to impact on existing community facilities, but also benefit new residents and the existing community by providing a significant quantum of new additional open space and facilities within the proposed development.
6.144 The main impacts from the operation phase are considered to be:
• Community buildings; • Healthcare infrastructure; • Education facilities; and • Public Open Space.
6.145 The increase population is likely to affect the demand for these key community services within the local area, north Cardiff and further afield. Without mitigation, this expansion is likely to place increased pressure on the existing community, and in particular its facilities.
Community Buildings
6.146 Creigiau itself does not benefit from a formal community hall. There are facilities such the Creigiau Church Hall and the Scout Hall which can be used for community events. Creigiau forms part of the Creigiau and Pentyrch Community Council area. Pentyrch benefits from a dedicated Village Hall, as well as other facilities which are open for the public to use for events e.g. the rugby club.
6.147 The increased population will increase the use of these facilities which could result in greater wear and tear, and demand. On one hand the greater use would result in higher income from bookings, the running costs are also likely to increase. Accordingly, it is considered that the impact on community benefits without mitigation would be minor adverse.
Healthcare Infrastructure
6.148 The baseline condition is that there is a good provision of healthcare infrastructure serving the development site, including hospitals, GP surgeries and other healthcare provisions within accessible distances.
6.149 There is no on-site provision of healthcare infrastructure proposed at this stage. While overall, the population arising from the proposed development will place additional pressure upon the existing healthcare infrastructure. Table 5.18 shows that GP surgeries within close proximity to the site are accepting new patients, suggesting there is existing capacity within the GP surgeries. The degree of capacity, however, is unclear. The impact of the proposed development without mitigation is considered to be of negligible / minor adverse significance by reducing the existing capacity.
Education Facilities
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6.150 The development is likely to result in a not insignificant number of additional pupils. The baseline condition indicates very limited capacity in existing schools, and therefore the additional pupils created by the development will result in major adverse impact.
Public Open Space
6.151 The proposed development will generate a demand for Public Open Space (POS) in order to create sustainable and enjoyable places to live, work and play. The required POS can be calculated in accordance with the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (2017). To be consistent with the remainder of the ES, an average household size of 2.30 persons is used in the calculation Public Open Space (POS) requirements. However, to also be consistent with the SPG formulae, a second figure of 2.33 persons per households is also used in calculating the POS requirements. These two results are given in Table 6.22 below:
Table 6.22 – Open Space Provision
Development Household Public Open Space Requirement (based on 2.33Ha per 1000 Population size projected population) (650 units)
2.30 1,495 1495 X 2.43 / 1000 = 3.63 Ha
2.33 1,514.5 1514.5*2.43 / 1000 = 3.68 Ha
6.152 The Green Infrastructure Plan (Figure XX) indicates the provision of approximately 21ha of open space. This provision consists of:
• 7.8ha Central woodland • 0.33ha equipped play (LEAPS and NEAP) • 12.68ha POS (this includes the boundary planting, watercourse and railway corridor)
6.153 The effects of the proposals are therefore assessed as having minor beneficial significance on POS across the local community.
Impact on Crime
6.154 The site, as existing, currently comprises mainly farmland (mainly Grade 3b semi improved grassland) set amongst blocks and belts of woodland, hedgerows and trees. The site therefore currently generates little in way of crime.
6.155 The development of the site and intensification of activity that will result will increase activity in this area. By virtue, this may increase the opportunity for crime however at the same time introduces passive surveillance across the development.
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6.156 As detailed in the Design and Access Statement and the Masterplan, the development has been designed, in so far as it can at this outline stage, with the objective of designing out crime and providing well integrated development parcels with open space. The impact on crime by the appropriate design, layout and appearance of buildings will be required within the future reserved matter(s) application.
6.157 The effects of the proposals are therefore assessed as having negligible significance on crime within the local community as although the development would likely bring about greater opportunities for crime, this will be managed through both the sensitive development of the physical environment and the natural surveillance afforded by the workers during the construction of the development and by residents during the occupation.
Wider Regeneration Impact
6.158 Residential development has been acknowledged as having a significant role to play in the success of any regeneration scheme, indeed it is seen as the cornerstone of the LDP’s growth strategy. The development of amenities and community facilities often provided with, or resulting from housing development, and the development of mixed communities, in close proximity to employment and other facilities, provide essential regeneration to localities.
6.159 Whilst major economic development projects have the potential to have significant impacts on the economic vitality of a region, this potential can only be unlocked if there is a ‘connection’ to the local economy. In order for the wealth created by any scheme (i.e. salaries) to have local effects they must live and spend their earnings locally. If employees of such a strategic scheme live outside the local area, the economic benefit is unlikely to be kept local as available expenditure will be lost and, as such, is unlikely to benefit the local community. Housing represents a good opportunity of capturing these benefits, particularly if this allows people to live closer to their place of work.
6.160 The housing scheme will have significant regenerative effects in its own right. For example, in addition to the tangible improvements, such as amenities and infrastructure provision, a housing scheme of the extent proposed offers the potential for significant job creation, both pre and post the construction phase. The cumulative effects of the development are potentially substantial and can provide significant socio-economic benefits to the existing communities within the locality. As such, it is of paramount importance that the potential positive impact of the proposed development of the site can be quantified. Early delivery of the residential units on the site will make a significant contribution to the current shortage in housing land supply in Cardiff and the wider Regional Study Area.
6.161 In light of the above, the impact of the proposed development will have on realising the successful regeneration is considered to be of moderate beneficial significance.
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Cumulative Impact
6.162 Throughout this ES the two main sites being included in the assessment of cumulative impacts are the two allocations known as Site D and Site C. In terms of socio-economic impacts, given the close proximity of the two sites to existing social infrastructure in the area, it is considered that the main cumulative impacts will be as a result of this application site and Site D, known as Junction 33.
6.163 Accordingly, the community impacts resulting from this site and only Site D are being assessed for cumulative impacts purposes.
Site D
6.164 Site D proposes to deliver around 1200 new homes which would result in over 3000 new residents. To in part mitigate for this, the development proposes to deliver, inter alia, the following measures:
• Community facilities including a new 2 form entry primary school (2 hectares) and a community centre (Use Class D1) of up to 750m2 • A local centre including 2,500m2 of shops (Use Class A1), financial and professional (Use Class A2), food and drink (Use Class A3) uses and a clinic or surgery (Use Class D1) • 16300m2 of new offices, workshops and research and development facilities (Use Classes B1 with ancillary B2 and B8) over two separate locations – a business zone around J33 and a second area along the M4 corridor for local workspace • A network of open spaces, including parkland, footpaths, 2 sports pitches, allotments/local growing space and orchards, play facilities for young and teenage/older children (including 3 no Local Equipped Area of Play and 1 no Neighbourhood Equipped Area of Play and Multi Use Games Area) and areas for informal recreation.
Community Impacts
Community Buildings
6.165 Site D As identified above, a 750m2 community centre is proposed as part of Site D. This is designed to serve the new community on Site D, however, it is likely that the population created by Site E would also be capable of using this facility.
6.166 Accordingly, the cumulative effect of the two developments does not result in an increase in the minor adverse impact already identified.
Healthcare Infrastructure
6.167 The community building proposed as part of Site D has the flexibility to be used as a healthcare facility. No further contribution was agreed as part of that application.
6.168 Accordingly, the cumulative impact from both Sites D and E is likely to be moderate adverse.
Education Facilities
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6.169 Given the scale of Site D, it is capable of providing the necessary infrastructure to accommodate its pupil yield. Accordingly the cumulative effect of the two developments does not result in an increase in the major adverse impact already identified.
Public Open Space
6.170 Those living on this application site would benefit from the use of some of the facilities provided on Site D, thus, to some extent, reducing the potential impact on the existing infrastructure within Creigiau.
6.171 Notwithstanding this, the application proposal delivers the necessary Public Open Space provision that exceeds the policy requirements. Accordingly, the impact remains minor beneficial.
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Proposed Mitigation and Residual Impacts
6.172 This section sets out the proposed mitigation to address the potential adverse socio-economic impacts of the development identified above during both the construction and operational phases.
6.173 The following characteristics have been considered:
• Economy and Employment: The impact on employment (local and non-local) is quantified and assessed in terms of job creation and indirect effects resulting from the construction phase and occupation of the dwellings; • Housing and Population – provision of housing including affordable and changes in population size and structure; • Community Impact: both in terms of impact on services and facilities, but also amenity (particularly during the construction phase); • Impact on Crime; and • Wider Regeneration Impacts.
Construction Phase
Economy and Employment
6.174 None considered necessary.
Housing and Population
6.175 None considered necessary.
Community Impacts
6.176 As highlighted above, during the construction phase, the likely impacts on the community from environmental issues such as noise and air quality is considered to be moderate adverse.
6.177 In general, however, it is considered that disruption during construction would be controlled and managed through the implementation of the Construction and Environmental Management Plan (CEMP) and Health & Safety Plans. To a certain extent, these are covered by separate legislation and best practice. The impacts upon general amenity during the construction phase will be mitigated through the agreement of planning conditions on working practices, including the agreement of a CEMP. It is considered that the application of standard good practice methods and a CEMP would minimise the likelihood and magnitude of potential impacts to a negligible impact.
Impact on Crime
6.178 None considered necessary, however, appropriate security measures ought to be put in place by the builder to minimise the potential of crime to take place during the construction phase.
Wider Regeneration
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6.179 None considered relevant
Operational Phase
Economy and Employment
6.180 None considered necessary.
Housing and Population
6.181 None considered necessary.
Community Impacts
6.182 The main impacts from an operational perspective are from the operational phase of the development. Accordingly, mitigation, of some kind is required.
6.183 The main impacts from the operation phase are considered to be:
• Community Buildings; • Healthcare infrastructure; • Education facilities; and • Public Open Space.
Community Buildings
6.184 The scale and nature of the development could not viably sustain a new community building within the site. Accordingly, a financial contribution is likely to be the most appropriate method of mitigating the assessed impact of the development.
6.185 The exact level of this contribution will be determined during the application process, however, the Council’s Planning Obligations SPG indicates that subject to an appropriate contribution the impacts can be mitigated.
6.186 Furthermore, the provision within the adjoining Site D could also be used by future residents of this site. Accordingly, and with the appropriate contribution made, the likely impact is considered to be negligible.
Healthcare infrastructure
6.187 As above, the development is not of sufficient scale to viably provide on-site healthcare provision. Accordingly, a financial contribution made in line with the Council’s SPG is considered to be the most appropriate measure to ensure mitigate the potential minor impact.
6.188 With the appropriate contribution in place, the level of which will be discussed in detail as part of the application process, the likely impact on healthcare infrastructure is considered to be negligible.
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Education facilities
6.189 Whilst it is recognised that the development would have a major adverse impact on education facilities, again the site is incapable of including such provision without significantly reducing the number of units being delivered to address the housing need.
6.190 Accordingly, a financial contribution towards improvements to education facilities in the area is proposed.
6.191 Such provision would ensure that the pupils generated by the development could be appropriately accommodated within existing education facilities. The result of which would therefore be an overall negligible impact.
Public Open Space
6.192 None considered necessary given the provision being made on site exceeds that required.
Impact on Crime
6.193 None considered necessary
Wider Regeneration
6.194 None considered necessary.
Summary and Conclusion
6.195 The development of up to 650 units along with the provision of public open space, both local and neighbourhood equipped area for play will generate a need for the additional social infrastructure within the local area. The main impacts is likely to be to on education and community buildings. There is in-sufficient land incorporated within the development site for the on-site provision of these facilities, and therefore off-site mitigation through financial contributions is proposed, in line with the SPG standards, for community buildings, education facilities and healthcare facilities to mitigate against any pressure arising from the increase in population following the development.
6.196 In conclusion, the majority of the residual impacts are either beneficial in nature or negligible.
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