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www.africa-confidential.com 28 June 2019 - Vol 60 - N° 13

EAST AFRICA BLUE LINES The best construction that Singing from the same can be put on the return of the Zimbabwe dollar and the ban on foreign currencies is that spreadsheet its authors wanted to rein in inflation and crack down on the Despite growing fears about rising debt levels, the region’s finance ministers have currency trading rackets that gave unveiled a series of expansionary budgets politically connected businesses access to cheap US dollars. But it he four major players in the East 20%*. Rwanda also unveiled a hefty won’t fix either problem. African Community completed budget increase to $3.16bn in 2019/20 The ban on the use of the Tthe annual ritual of unveiling from $2.87bn. US dollar, South African rand their national spending plans on 13 None of these are pre-election and other foreign currencies June. ‘Transforming lives through giveaway budgets motivated by short- announced on 24 June will drive industrialisation and job creation for term political gain. With the exception the foreign exchange trade further shared prosperity’ was the theme for the of Tanzania’s President John Magufuli, underground. Already, small-time budgets of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania who faces elections next year, none of the traders in the centre of Harare are and Uganda. governments are going to the polls any being harassed by police while The headline growth forecasts paint time soon. But they follow the traditional favoured business people who an equally optimistic picture: East Africa pattern of government spending in the can organise their trades at arm’s is the fastest growing sub-region in Africa, ‘good times’ – few tax hikes other than length suffer no sanction. with an estimated growth rate of 5.9% higher ‘sin levies’ on alcohol, gambling The premise for the reintroduction in 2018 up from 5.3% in 2017, largely and tobacco (with the exception of a of the national currency– that on the back of strong performances by capital gains tax increase in Kenya, and there is enough local confidence the agricultural sector in Kenya, Uganda the Tanzanian government’s planned 25% in it to sustain its official rate of and Rwanda. The African Development tax on imported wigs and hair extensions), US$1=Zim$5.2 – is palpably false. Bank reckons growth in the region will and a focus on more efficient tax collection Before the ban on the US dollar hit 6.1% in 2019 – compared to 4% across to raise revenues. was introduced, the Zimbabwe the continent – driven by manufacturing dollar was trading at half that sector growth (AC Vol 60 No 3). LEGACY HUNT level and it has fallen further this All four governments continued to But while spending is slightly down in week. follow a recent pattern of presenting Kenya, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Neither is there any sign that the expansionary budgets with ambitious Rotich’s grandly titled ‘Creating Jobs, return of the Zim dollar will cut revenue targets that, say most local Transforming Lives – Harnessing the Big inflation, now nudging 100%. As economists, are almost certain be missed. Four Plan’ is about legacy rather than shops repriced their goods in Zim The result is likely to be more borrowing concerns about austerity. Out of the $4.5bn dollars, crossing out the US dollar and ever-rising concerns about debt allocated to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s pricing, customers complained distress. That has been the case for the ‘Big Four’ agenda, $3.3bn has been ear- the goods were even more previous five years, with Kenya, Uganda, marked for ‘critical infrastructure’. expensive. Rwanda and Tanzania all going for a Locally made and grown products will Both the main opposition mix of infrastructure investment with be given priority in public procurement, Movement for Democratic Change protectionism to promote domestic while government authorities agencies and the trade unions reject the industrialisation (AC Vol 55 No 14 & Vol will be required to provide exclusive move and look set to organise 57 No 13). preference in procurement of motor protests. The IMF, with which Nairobi’s budget is actually slightly vehicles and motorcycles to domestic the government has just signed a smaller – down to $27.5bn from $30bn in assembly plants. monitoring agreement, maintains the 2018/19 financial year, while Uganda In Uganda, Finance minister Matia a diplomatic silence. has increased its spending by around Kasaija’s Ush40.487trn ($10.8bn) budget

CONGO-KINSHASA 3 SOUTH AFRICA 4 NIGERIA 5 ETHIOPIA 7 MAURITANIA 8

TUNISIA 9

Mbororo Ace helps his The rise of Politics behind Property of Asempa Limited conundrum allies Godwin Emefiele the putsch KENYA 10 Fulani herders are Zuma supporters The Central Bank A serious attack signals POINTERS 12 being targeted are grabbing key Governor has stamped how difficult Abiy by unscrupulous appointments in his authority on Ahmed’s reforms will be politicians parliament economic policy to achieve

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– he has promised to cut the budget Bank which followed an oversubscribed AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL deficit to 3% by 2022/23, though most $2.1bn Eurobond issue in May, both to 37 John’s Mews, London WC1N 2NS, UK analysts are sceptical that this target contribute to Big Four spending. Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 will be met. The government is also set to make Editor: Patrick Smith ‘We shall continue to remain on peace with the International Monetary Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir the planned path of reducing the fiscal Fund after signing a deal with selected Website Editor: Juliet Amissah Published fortnightly since 1960 deficit in the medium term in order to banks to release close to $10bn in loans 25 issues per year create more fiscal space and reduce the to the private sector that appears to www.africa-confidential.com public debt,’ he said. have persuaded the Fund to renew its Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. ISSN 0044-6483 But that claim doesn’t sit comfortably $1.5bn standby credit facility. All material is copyright Africa Confidential. with the fact that it has increased from In Rwanda, where Finance Minister 39.9% of GDP in 2011 to the present Uzziel Ndagijimana unveiled a record high of 59.2%, and although $3.16bn budget, the government has focuses on funding increased spending Kenya’s budget deficit is on a downward had to borrow aggressively in recent on military, public administration and trend, expected to drop to 5.6% of GDP years to fund growth. Rwanda recorded infrastructure spending. from 6.8% in 2018/19 and 7.4% in the highest GDP growth rate in the East Africa’s third-largest economy 2017/18, 60% of revenue is currently region at 8.6%, and its budget assumes plans to borrow more from local and being spent on servicing debt. real GDP growth of 7.8% for 2019/20, foreign sources with the Uganda Revenue The Parliamentary Budget Office in line with the recent forecasts from Authority expected to increase its tax has warned that Kenya is slipping into the African Development Bank and take from around $4.3bn to $4.85bn. debt distress unless the country adopts the IMF.Ndagijimana’s new budget Kenya, the region’s biggest spender, careful management strategies. ‘Debt- represents an 11% hike from the $2.7bn unveiled a $27.5bn budget, that involves sustainability concerns in the medium for the 2018/19 fiscal year. plans to borrow $5.9bn to cover a 5.7% term arising from a risk of debt distress Although the IMF’s analysis deficit. A hefty hike on capital gains have been raised from low to moderate,’ suggests that Rwanda remains a low tax from 5% to 12.5% is the only major said the PBO. debt-risk economy – its debt burden tax rise in the budget, although the Yet while the government’s appetite of 32.9% of GDP is one of the lowest government expects the Kenya Revenue for new debt is causing plenty of in sub-Saharan Africa – concessional Authority to continue improve its consternation among domestic analysts, loans stood at 63% of the debt stock at efficiency in collecting taxes – the tax there is little sign yet that financial the end of 2018. Even so, Ndagijimana take has doubled under the Kenyatta markets are overly perturbed by Kenya’s points to a Debt Sustainability Analysis government. Rotich argues that public economic credibility. conducted in April which confirmed the debt is within sustainable levels, and Kenyatta’s government recently sustainability of his country’s debt in that the burden is projected to decline agreed a $750m loan from the World the medium and long term. Property of Asempa Limited

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Tanzania is the only EAC state that is almost certain to weigh heavily East African Community partner states plans to keep its budget deficit below on Rwanda’s and indeed the region’s recorded impressive growth. 3% in 2019/20, with President Magufuli growth in 2019, even though both In Uganda, inflows reached a historic pushing a non-donor-dependency countries have sought to offset the high, increasing by 67% to $1.3bn, programme, perhaps mindful of the damage by improving trade relations while Kenya posted 27% growth to threats of aid suspension from a with other regional partners (AC Vol 60 $1.6bn and Tanzania an 18% increase handful of European countries and the No 6). to inflows to $1.1bn. European Union (AC Vol 60 No 3). Burundi has also joined in the Aside from the yet-to-be imposed Finance Minister Philip Mpango’s spending, proposing a 7.2% increase discipline of the financial markets, it $14.3bn budget plans to grow the from the 2018/19 budget of $676m to is hard to see what other tools can rein economy at 7.1% this year, largely on $725m, although, in his case, Finance in growing debts and deficits. The East the back of infrastructure investment Minister Domitien Ndihokubwayo African fiscal convergence framework in the Standard Gauge Railway and plans to fund at least 88% of the budget requires EAC members to keep public Stiegler’s Gorge hydropower project, from domestic revenues. debt below 50% of their GDP in Net but that also means projected national While the World Bank has been Present Value Terms and maintain debt will rise in the coming fiscal year. relatively sanguine about Kenya and reserves of at least four and a half Intra-EAC trade is the highest Tanzania ramping up infrastructure months of imports as precondition for among all regional economic investment on the grounds that it was entry into a planned monetary union communities in Africa – above 20% of long overdue, the continued, and, in by 2024, modelled on the European exports and significantly higher than many cases, growing appetite of foreign Union’s Stability and Growth Pact. The the continental average. That, in turn, investors to push their money into the EU’s fiscal rules were happily flouted makes the region likely to be one of the region is another reason for leaders’ by many of its member states for over main beneficiaries from the recently optimism. a decade until the double dip recession ratified African Continental Free Trade The latest World Investment Report caused by the 2007-08 financial crash Area, if and when it becomes reality. 2019 by the United Nations Conference prompted a sovereign debt crisis. East But there are headwinds on regional on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Africa’s leaders will hope that is not a trade (AC Vol 60 No 7). The escalating shows that despite flat growth in FDI portent for the future but it serves as diplomatic row between Uganda’s in the wider East African region, which a reminder of the economic pain that President Yoweri Museveni and remained largely unchanged at $9bn comes when the good times suddenly Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame due to contractions in Ethiopia, the come to an end. l

CONGO KINSHASA On 5 June, civil society organisations in Faradje, Haut Uele, threatened to launch a campaign of ‘fiscal Mbororo conundrum disobedience’ if no action was taken to remove the herders, and on 16 June, groups in the provincial capital Isiro Fulani herders – already involved in clashes in the Sahel – are being targeted launched ‘Operation Zero Mbororo’, by unscrupulous politicians and the dangers levels are rising saying the herders were doing massive environmental damage and demanded that all of them ‘leave immediately’. The n Congo-Kinshasa’s Haut Uele wildlife reserves. The conservationists Isiro organisations accused the national province, which borders South are trying to persuade the Mbororo to government of being ‘lax’ and the ISudan and Central African Republic change course but if they keep going international community for ‘criminal (CAR), inflammatory rhetoric from the in their current direction they will complicity’, adding ominously that if authorities and civil society against approach the Kibali gold mine operated this did not change within 30 days, they the nomadic, cattle-herding Fulani (or by Barrick Gold, currently one of the would revert to ‘self-defence’. Peuhl), known locally as the Mbororo, is most productive and profitable gold The newly-elected Haut Uele reaching becoming dangerous heights, mines on the continent. governor is Christophe Baseane just as the United Nations prepares to Nangaa, the brother of Corneille take its forces out of the province. MONUSCO MOVES Nangaa, the head of the country’s The Mbororo crossed into Congo-K The United Nations Organisation electoral commission, who has been from CAR over a decade ago, having Stabilisation Mission in the Congo sanctioned by the United States quit Chad for CAR during the 1970s. (MONUSCO), is closing its base in government for his role in the December They appear to have prospered during Dungu, which will mark the end of its 2018 election (AC Vol 60 No 6). recent years from good grazing in Haut presence in Haut Uele province. As part Christophe Nangaa has been supportive and Bas Uele provinces (AC Vol 52 No of the same process of reducing the of Operation Zero Mbororo and took 19). The Mbororo community numbers mission, MONUSCO is also closing its to national radio to urge the Mbororo less than 20,000, while their cattle total base in Kisangani. to ‘go back home now’. Nangaa met around 900,000. They are present in Congolese opposition to the Mbororo leader Mohamed Tchad in five of Haut Uele’s six territories and in Mbororo’s presence is growing Isiro on 18 June, where Tchad promised the neighbouring provinces of Ituri and increasingly vociferous. In March, all to take his people out of the province Bas Uele too. the Catholic bishops of the Kisangani as soon as river levels subsided, which Property of Asempa Limited In Haut Uele, conservationists are region – which takes in the whole would allow their cattle to cross them. increasingly anxious that the Mbororo, of the former province of Orientale Nangaa said publicly that he was not many of whom are feared to be armed, – denounced the ‘expansion’ of the convinced by that and wanted the are heading for Garamba National Mbororo, accusing the herders of being Mbororo to leave immediately. Park, one of the continent’s oldest Muslim and a terrorist threat. Another powerful and prominent

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supporter of the campaign to drive the governments of CAR and South Sudan of thousands of people. Haut Uele is Mbororo from Congo-K is the outgoing would be capable of playing their part. currently far more peaceful than Ituri, defence minister, Crispin Atama Tabe Atama and the other deputies said in but this could change if Isiro’s civil Mogodi (AC Vol 58 No 11). Atama is a the statement that they vigorously reject society delivers on its threat of ‘self- signatory, along with the entire caucus the conclusions of the UN Committee as defence’, supported – openly or covertly of National Assembly deputies from ‘foreign interference’. Additionally, it is – by the provincial administration and the two Uele provinces, to an angry the committee’s appeal for cohabitation the national minister of defence. If that statement dated 28 May rejecting the and dialogue that appears to have happens, armed conflict seems inevitable idea of cohabitation with the Mbororo. inspired Isiro civil society to raise with Mbororo herders, who will not The statement was issued one day the issue of international criminal concede easily. Observers also point out into a week-long meeting in Kinshasa of complicity. that military solutions to the presence of the United Nations Standing Advisory Despite all the rhetoric, there have Muslim herder communities have been Committee on Security Questions in been only a few isolated skirmishes repeatedly tried and have failed across Central Africa, which meets twice a year between local Congolese and Mbororo, the region, with radicalisation often the at ministerial level. The committee’s and few lives have been lost. More result. official position is that pastoralists attention, rightly, is currently focused on With Nangaa, Atama and the other contribute to the economy of the sub- the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Ueles’ national deputies adopting region and that the ‘challenge’ of Djugu, Mahagi and Irumu territories of such a gung-ho stance, and with the Mbororo should be resolved Ituri province where there are ongoing MONUSCO pulling out of the region, multilaterally between Congo-K, clashes between Hema and Lendu armed decisive intervention from the national South Sudan and CAR. Yet even if the groups and the national army, Forces government will be needed to calm Congo-K government were genuinely Armées de la République Démocratique things down. The problem, however, to seek interlocutors on the Mbororo du Congo (FARDC). All three are said to to everyone’s increasing unease, is that issue, it is by no means clear that the be raiding villages, displacing hundreds there is still no new government. l

SOUTH AFRICA and the new appointees are therefore fit for public office. Leading the list of appointees is Ace helps his allies corruption-tainted former deputy finance minister Sfiso Buthelezi, now chair of the key appropriations committee which oversees allocations As President Ramaphosa purges corrupt politicians from the cabinet, Zuma for the country’s US$128 billion (1.83 supporters are grabbing key appointments in parliament trillion rand) budget. Bongani Bongo, a former Security Minister who was sacked by Ramaphosa pponents of South African legislative work in Parliament, have and faces corruption allegations, is now President Cyril Ramaphosa in the the power to change legislation in the chair of the home affairs committee Oruling African National Congress drafting process and even to discipline which oversees laws on immigration. have opened a new front in the ruthless ministers if they are seen to be working Faith Muthambi, another Zuma- campaign to remove him from office by against ANC policy directives. appointed minister who leaked 2021 or at least ensure that he does not But reformist presidents – such as confidential information to the Gupta serve a second five-year term. Tactics Mbeki and Ramaphosa – often find that brothers, was sacked by Ramaphosa and similar to those used to remove former their agendas are at odds with populist continues to be at Zuma’s side during President Thabo Mbeki before the party resolutions and try to maintain a his court appearances on multiple end of his second term and are now gap between party policy and that of the fraud charges, is now the chair of the being deployed behind the scenes by a government (AC Vol 49 No 19). co-operative governance committee committed group of senior ANC officials which oversees the increasingly loyal to discredited former President MAGASHULE’S CHAIRS important realm of provincial and local Jacob Zuma (AC Vol 60 No 12). Magashule used his power to push government. There is a limit of two five-year terms through a batch of committee chairs Mosebenzi Zwane, former mineral for the national President but no formal that read more like a who’s who of state resources minister appointed at the limit on the terms an ANC President can capture and graft than a team to assist request of the Guptas to facilitate serve, although the two positions usually Ramaphosa with his programme to massive gains for the Indian brothers coincide. end corruption, create jobs and restore in the coal industry, now chairs the No sooner had Ramaphosa won the economic growth. The announcement transport committee in Parliament. fight with pro-Zuma ANC Secretary- of the new committee chairs followed a Tina Joemat-Pettersson, former General Ace Magashule over the week of horse-trading which Magashule energy minister who lobbied for Zuma’s independence of South Africa’s central described as ‘collective action’ but potentially crippling $75bn (R1trn) bank, the SA Reserve Bank, than Ramaphosa supporters branded as nuclear deal with Russia and presided Magashule and his allies selected some attempted sabotage. However, they over the clandestine sale of the country’s of the most corruption-tainted pro- failed to capture the chair of the Justice precious oil reserves, is now chair of Zuma loyalists, many of whom had been parliamentary committee, which the police committee on parliament. Property of Asempa Limited dropped from the Ramaphosa cabinet, could have given important support to Ironically, she lost her job for failing to as chairs of the powerful parliamentary corrupt ANC members fighting to avoid help push through the nuclear deal. portfolio and cabinet committees. prosecution. And Joe Maswanganyi, heads the The committee chairs, as part of Magashule insists that no-one is all-important standing committee on their function overseeing and driving guilty until convicted in a court of law finance which oversees accountability

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for public expenditure and acts as a Bank issue, Ramaphosa has also damped of the funding was criticised for not watchdog on excessive government ‘Radical Economic Transformation’ detailing plans to split up and reform the spending, such as occurred during the expectations in favour of the more utility and put it on a steadier footing. Zuma decade that crippled state-owned incremental National Development Plan, Investors are not convinced that the 10- enterprises. which was previously discredited by the year scenario is feasible and fear the Delivering his third state of the same forces that supported Ramaphosa impact on political stability of repeated nation speech in 18 months last week in the leadership campaign. electricity price hikes and further power- President Ramaphosa sought to straddle He referred to ‘tough choices’ cuts. The R69bn of bailout funds over the widening chasm in the ANC and which would have to be made to three years promised in February were soothe a troubled nation looking for achieve efficiency and the levels of welcomed, but despite the R23bn portion hope. Less a victory speech and more economic growth needed to reverse to be disbursed this year, it is feared that a personal manifesto, it was high on unemployment. ‘Now is the time to focus Eskom will run out of funds by October. vision and low on specifics as to how on implementation,’ he said, without It currently has debt of over R400bn. he was going to achieve his dream of a providing a detailed road-map. ‘Overall we don’t see economic developmental state embracing cutting- It is these ‘tough choices’ that will test sentiment shifting higher after the edge digital innovation and bullet trains his relationship with the South African speech until actual implementation is and smart cities ‘like they have in China’. Communist Party and the Confederation begun,’ said Peter Attard Montalto, head Ramaphosa’s central dilemma is that of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), of capital markets research at Intellidex. as he makes gradual but steady headway as he seeks to strengthen bonds outside Political analyst William Gumede said in the fight against corruption, the the ANC’s comfort zone, in business, that the Ramaphosa era is going to be economy is buckling under the weight civil society and even the parliamentary characterised more by provincial and of youth unemployment exceeding 50% opposition which now collectively metropolitan power blocs and special in some provinces, as the last ratings accounts for 42% of the vote. interest groups than by ideological and agency just holds off from downgrading Ramaphosa said a broad-based social organisational constituencies. ‘The the country to junk investment status. compact between government, labour, success of the Ramaphosa Presidency If Moody’s downgrades South Africa business and civil society was needed will depend on the extent to which he to ‘subinvestment’ or junk status in to overcome the formidable challenges is able to balance these regional and November, as seems likely, it would facing the country. special interest groups,’ Gumede said. trigger a major outflow of global But he warned that Ramaphosa institutional investment. COOL RECEPTION had only six to nine months to assert Some analysts argued that although The speech received a cool reception his authority in the party if he wanted Ramaphosa experienced some earlier from investors who did not see much to achieve his objectives of containing setbacks in the rhetorical battle with the light at the end of what they perceive as public sector corruption, improving militant Economic Freedom Fighters over a long and hard tunnel to achieve higher efficiency and cutting costs. land redistribution and the unattainable economic growth. ‘The longer Ramaphosa postpones goal of free education for all, he has Ramaphosa’s announcement that he the inevitable battle with the Zuma-ite succeeded in kicking these controversial would speed up the R230bn, 10-year populists, the more his powers will wane issues into touch following the election. plan to bail out the ailing electricity because of constant attacks on him,’ said As well as killing the crucial Reserve utility Eskom by bringing forward some Gumede. l

NIGERIA at the cheaper official rate are making hundreds of millions of dollars every year from round-tripping deals. The rise of Godwin Emefiele Bankers say that a good part of the $14 billion reported capital inflows into the country in the first five months As the country awaits a new government, four months after elections, the of 2019 are the proceeds of round- Central Bank Governor has stamped his authority on economic policy tripping deals. Given the opacity of these transactions, it’s an assertion that’s almost impossible to prove. he importance of Godwin Emefiele, operations, distracting it from the Governor Emefiele’s argument is that governor of the Central Bank of demanding task of regulating the the managed float regime has reduced TNigeria, to President Muhammadu country’s fast-growing financial sector. the effect of market volatility on the Buhari’s plans was clear as he set out his Nigeria, with some 160 million mobile country’s economy. It has brought down agenda for the next five years in Abuja phone subscribers, is on the brink of a inflation to 11% from 18% in 2016, on 24 June. His key message was that revolution in digital banking which the he added, and laid the foundation for the bank would continue to manage the traditional banks are trying to keep up double digit growth within the next five value of the naira and has no plans to with. years. For now, Nigeria’s performance, abandon its system of multiple exchange The multiple exchange rate system averaging 1.9% in 2018, makes it one rates, as the International Monetary also allows arbitrage deals between the of Africa’s slowest growing economies, Fund has advised (AC Vol 60 No 9). This official rate of US$1=N306 (for official along with South Africa (AC Vol 60 month, the IMF said it was considering government purchases and fuel imports) No 3). a tougher stance towards countries, and the ‘Investors and Exporters’ rate’ Referring to the bank’s $45bn of Property of Asempa Limited such as Nigeria and Venezuela, which of about US$1=N360. There is also reserves, Emefiele reiterates that the operate multiple exchange rates. a parallel rate, offering about a 20% government will be defending the naira The IMF says the system deters discount on the official rate. Local critics at the official rate of $1=N306. However, foreign investment and ties up the say that officials and their business economists say the $45bn figure central bank in complex administrative allies with access to foreign exchange overstates the reserves once foreign

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exchange liabilities and commitments for the first five months of this year, questions that over 50% of government are deducted. compared with last year’s out turn. revenues were being used to service Emefiele’s stance has the full backing With the spot price for Nigeria’s debt. Its tax-raising campaign would of President Buhari and his advisors, Brent crude oil down to an average of intensify, she said, including a hike of although it is less popular with the $65 a barrel, barely over the minimum value added tax to 7% from its current ministers he appointed to lead on price on which the 2019 budget is based, level of 5%. economic policy in his first term (AC Vol the short-term finances look difficult. Also important in the economic 60 No 9). Meanwhile, Emefiele, backed team is Okechukwu Enelamah, former Occasionally, a chink of light shows by Buhari, is doubling down on the Industry, Trade and Investment Minister, through. Earlier this month, the central bank’s interventionist role: those firms from Abia state. However, he wasn’t bank stopped publishing the official importing any of the 43 items ineligible backed up after he announced that naira exchange rate on its website, saying for foreign exchange at the official Nigeria would soon join the African Free the exchange rate would be market exchange rate are now to face some form Continental Trade Area, whose founding determined. And Yewande Sadiku, of regulatory sanction. He also wants to agreement Nigeria is yet to sign. Buhari head of the Investment Promotion step up cheaper loans for agricultural said in mid-June that he was studying Commission, said the central bank was and processing operations from the the conclusions of a report commissioned in talks with other departments to move commercial banking sector. For now, last December on the effects of a no- towards a single rate. Nigeria’s banks find it far more profitable tariff regime on Nigerian manufacturers Whatever the government’s plan in to lend to government via Treasury bills (AC Vol 59 No 18). the medium-term, Emefiele wants to halt and other instruments. speculation about any moves towards a Emefiele also announced plans GROWING GAP single exchange rate. Many bankers are to recapitalise the banking sector by Budget and National Planning Minister convinced that the central bank will stepping up capital requirements, Udo Udoma’s public presentation of unify the rates in the next year but is yet probably leading to more consolidation this year’s budget on 28 May, in the to choose the timing, probably linked to of the sector. wake of Buhari’s belated signing of an improvement in foreign receipts. Buhari is yet to announce whether the budget, pointed to a growing gap Zainab Ahmed, from Kaduna State, will between planned federal expenditures INVESTMENTS be reappointed as finance minister in and revenues. The latest central bank report his second term. On 25 June she told an Udoma forecast that some 10% of Property of Asempa Limited records a massive jump to $7.1bn of emerging markets conference in London revenues this year could come from a portfolio investments and that foreign organised by Bloomberg News that she restructuring of joint ventures between remittances, mainly from Nigeria’s hadn’t discussed the issue with Buhari. the Nigerian National Petroleum growing diaspora, have hit $7.6bn. Non- The government had a revenue not a Corporation and the international oil oil exports are reported to be up by 65% debt problem, said Ahmed in response to companies. The state’s NNPC is to cut its

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stake to 40% in many of those companies (AC Vol 59 No 6). NNPC CHANCE FOR REFORM Although the N8.9 trillion ($29bn at the official exchange rate) budget, passed President Muhammadu Buhari’s appointment of Mele Kyari, petroleum engineer by Buhari last month after protracted and former head of marketing, as group managing director of the Nigerian National negotiations over pet spending projects Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is his second major economic appointment a month with the House of Representatives and into his second term. Senate, remains modest – it is under It comes as the NNPC plans to sell off equity in its joint venture companies and 7% of the country’s GDP– its viability is the ruling All Progressives Congress, with its clear majority in both houses of the vulnerable to recent weaker oil prices. National Assembly, should find it easier to push through its preferred version of the Udoma projects that combined Petroleum Industry Bill, the long-delayed reforms of the oil and gas sector. With recurrent expenditures and debt service President Buhari having secured his preferred candidates to head the Senate and payments could account for close to 70% House of Representatives it’s probable that the positions of the legislature and the of budget spending, which is almost 90% executive on the reforms will be better aligned (AC Vol 60 No 13),. of projected federal revenues this year. International oil companies claim that delays in passing the bill – which remains The forecast budget deficit of N1.9trn divided into its governance, fiscal, administrative and host communities parts – for 2019, less than 1.5% of GDP, looks have held up some US$40 billion in new investments, although Abuja officials are an under-estimate, especially if the more sceptical (AC Vol 59 No 17). They point to the willingness of companies such government is to meet its ambitious as France’s Total to go ahead with the massive Egina project on current fiscal terms. plans for capital spending. Whenever the revised bill goes through the legislature, there will be calls for far better fiscal terms for Nigeria, given revenue shortfalls and industry trends. MORE BORROWING The government wants to review offshore oil production-sharing terms, as well The budget deficit will require more as a settlement of its claims that international oil companies have failed to remit funding, and probably more borrowing billions of dollars of local taxes. on present projections. Wary of Kyari, who is well known to Buhari but not related to his chief of staff Abba escalating debt servicing costs, the Debt Kyari, will lead that tougher stance on investment terms. Including Kyari, five of Management Office in Abuja wants to eight new senior NNPC appointments – including its chief financial officer and chief boost the share of concessional financing operating officers for three NNPC divisions – hail from the North East, North West, and cheaper external debt. That would or the North Central region. Only one senior appointee comes from the South South mean recourse to the World Bank and oil-producing region. the International Monetary Fund, which Kyari’s predecessor, Maikanti Baru, supported Buhari’s personal preference would include policy conditions in the to explore for oil in the Chad Basin, in the North East, where he also hails from. loans. Industry experts, however, doubt this is worth while. l Government departments differ on whether Nigeria will float another Eurobond this year although most country will struggle to meet the IMF and even contraction in the oil sector. bankers think it likely, even if it is less and World Bank’s growth projections of Beyond the arguments over than the $2.8bn issuance last November. just over 2%, which would be negative exchange rates and targeted lending, It would also bolster Emefiele’s reserve in per-capita terms. Although, according it must be those growth figures, and firepower in the central bank. to the NBS, Nigeria’s agricultural output the consequences for unemployment Recent releases from Nigeria’s is growing, there are concerns about the now running at 23%, that will give the National Bureau of Statistics suggest the slowdown in the manufacturing sector, government most concern this year. l

ETHIOPIA The issues in Amhara region have their parallels across the country. The The politics behind the putsch government’s ethnic federalism is sprouting challenges. A crop of newly legalised ethno-nationalist parties has arisen to argue in their groups’ interests. The most serious attack so far on Abiy Ahmed’s premiership signals how They want greater regional autonomy. difficult his reforms will be to achieve Others go in the opposite direction, and want a strengthened centre. This agenda is more popular in mixed urban t was a deadly coup de thêatre. The different from the confident leader who areas, but away from the cities ethno- simultaneous slaying of the premier had faced down a pay demand from nationalism still holds sway. In the I of the Amhara regional state, the armed soldiers in his own office six multi-ethnic south, groups are pursuing second most populous in the federation, months ago. constitutional demands to carve out and the Defence Force Chief of Staff on Abiy was right to take the attempted their own ethno-regional states. 22 June was a broadside against Prime putsch seriously. The first target was Abiy wavers between the two Minister Abiy Ahmed and the federal the Amhara region premier Ambachew camps. He has opened up politics, government. Mekonnen, and two of his advisers, at allowed dissidents to return and freed Late that evening in camouflage their offices in Bahir Dar, the regional much of the media, although some of Property of Asempa Limited fatigues, Abiy cut an uneasy figure in a capital. Ambachew, deputy leader of the the returnees are lambasting Abiy for television broadcast assuring Ethiopians ruling Amhara Democratic Party, was his policy ambiguities. Although he is that it was under control. The plotters, a key ally of Abiy’s as he tries to enact himself a product of the federal system, he insisted, were power-hungry and not political reforms ahead of national Abiy doesn’t seem to favour it. By driven by ethnic motives. It was very elections due next year. creating political space for all he has by

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default encouraged ethno-nationalists one of the new regional parties if they in an Oromo district of Amhara the to pursue their agendas. calculate that the centre can no longer month before. Abiy will have to woo some of hold. Abiy’s aides say that Asaminew was the dissidents if he wants to steer the The failed putsch casts some light on directly involved in the killing of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary the government’s dilemmas on reform. regional premier in Bahir Dar but had Democratic Front to another victory in Behind the attack, say officials, also orchestrated the murder of Defence the coming elections. Abiy and allies was Brigadier Asaminew Tsige, who Chief General Seare Mekonnen and his reportedly want to turn the EPDRF into had been jailed with other officers in adviser Major General Gizae Aberra. a national party instead of an alliance 2009 and charged with coup-plotting The official account is the two were of four political parties: the ADP, the as a member of the Ginbot 7 opposition killed by one of Seare’s bodyguards, Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front group. Released last year in amnesty who was part of a bigger plot. (TPLF), the Oromo Democratic Party just before Abiy took over as prime Officials said Asaminew was killed and the Southern Ethiopian People’s minister, Asaminew was appointed two days later. If the government Democratic Movement. security adviser to the Amhara regional version is correct, it seems likely that he Such a new national party would government in November. used some of his old military contacts likely be dominated by activists from Asaminew’s appointment may have for the operation, which raises concerns the Oromo and Amhara regions to been a bid to win over ethno-nationalists about security and political sentiments the detriment of Tigray, which has in Amhara to the regional government. in the army. Last year, Abiy, who had already lost power in the party, federal If so, it backfired spectacularly. been a lieutenant colonel specialising government, and security, although Asaminew may have been secretly in communications and cyber security, Tigrayan officers still populate the working with the National Movement restructured the armed forces and military top brass and the south. Despite of Amhara (NaMA) which has been intelligence services. He brought in his history – his father, who recently demanding a redrawing of borders some close allies but made new enemies. died, was Oromo and his mother is with Tigray and involved in tensions Just hours before the putsch on Amhara – Abiy’s political skills would with Oromo (AC Vol 60 Nos 3 & 12). 22 June, Debretsion Gebremichael, be put to the severest test to organise Last month, At least 200 people died in acting Premier of Tigray region, warned such a party, let alone lead it. clashes in the borderlands of Amhara that any delays to elections next year Many members of the EPRDF and Benishangul-Gumuz region, and would create political ructions. Now sympathetic to the ethno-nationalist there was violence involving fatalities, delay to the electoral timetable looks cause might resist, or jump ship for for which Asaminew was partly blamed, certain, as do more ructions. l

MAURITANIA result at face value, Ghazouani’s 52.01% falls far short of a crushing mandate, especially when allowance is made Ghazouani’s modest mandate for the overwhelming advantages he enjoyed. The new president has not been granted a honeymoon of popular Ex-President Abdel Aziz has smoothly slipped his placeman into his old job goodwill and will be under pressure while a reinvigorated opposition failed and the world turned away to deliver tangible improvements in public services and citizens’ material wellbeing. pposition leaders were left with local notables. much to ponder after the 22 June Opposition parties did manage MOOD FOR CHANGE Opresidential election handed to collect copies of most local vote There are clearly many Mauritanians Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani declarations but neither they nor who want to see significant change outright victory on the first ballot with civil society organisations, nor the and are dismayed or disappointed with 52% of the vote. Anything other than independent local media had developed Abdel Aziz’s record. That is reflected victory for the chosen successor of a parallel voter tabulation (PVT) to in the strong 18.58% second place President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz check the official results. score for the outspoken campaigner for would have been astonishing – and it was There was little external pressure the Haratine (descendants of slaves) certainly no surprise when the electoral from either regional neighbours or Biram Ould Dah Abeid, and the commission announced that Ghazouani Mauritania’s key European partners and 8.71% notched up by Hamidou Baba had cleared the 50% hurdle. the United States – who were simply Kane, also appealing primarily to black Ghazouani did not wait for the full relieved, above all, that Abdel Aziz had Mauritanians. figures to be collated, proclaiming resisted pressure from his supporters to Meanwhile, the Islamist party his triumph to supporters at dawn on tinker with the constitutional limit of Tawassoul signalled that it remains a Sunday, alongside Abdel Aziz, just a two consecutive terms. This matters, at force to be reckoned with despite Abdel few hours after the polls had closed. a time when Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé Aziz’s overt hostility and its failure to Inevitably, opponents cried foul, is fiercely resisting suggestions that he progress in last September’s legislative disputing the results and complaining should quit in 2020 or even 2025, and polls. With a healthy 17.87% third about Ghazouani’s early claim of victory. Guinea’s Alpha Condé appears to be place score for the candidate it backed, There was no international election- preparing to amend the constitution so former prime minister Sidi Mohamed monitoring operation, making it hard that he can run for a third successive Boubacar Bousalaf, the party reaped Property of Asempa Limited to test the claims of fraud against the five-year stint in office. the fruit of its community engagement advantages of incumbency, such as the But beyond the headline result, the and youth appeal. political machine of the ruling Union detailed figures carry important lessons Most disappointed by the results was Pour la République (UPR), a compliant for both Mauritania’s new ruler and Mohamed Ould Maoulould (2.4%), public administration and supportive his opponents. Even taking the official standard bearer of the progressive

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secular camp. Despite commanding serve as a morale booster for opposition, extremism. wide respect as an individual, he who are getting better at working Ghazouani will also have to manage was completely marginalised by the together (AC Vol 59 No 17). When the the evolution in expectations from stronger identity politics appeal of the security forces ransacked the offices of family, tribal and business vested other opposition candidates. Abeid and Kane this week, they united interests. And he will face pressure to Ould Maouloud accused the regime to issue a joint condemnatory response. deliver money and jobs to the allies of of ‘an electoral coup d’état’ aimed But in the absence of any significant his ruling UPR, such as the Alliance at destroying his l’Union des forces nationwide electoral contest for more populaire progressiste (APP) of former de progrès (UFP) party, which has than four years they now have to work parliamentary speaker Mohamed Ould been allied to Ahmed Ould Daddah, out other ways to make their substantial Boulkheir, Karama, led by El Ghacem traditional leader of the hard-line electoral support count for something. Bellal, mayor of the fishing and iron ore opposition and brother of Mauritania’s They govern few local councils and export port Nouadhibou, and the Union first president,Mokhtar Ould Daddah. have only a small minority of seats in pour la Démocratie et le Progrès of social But Ould Maouloud’s poor showing the national assembly. Any popular affairs minister Naha Mint Hamdi this time also shows how hard it will be dissatisfaction with the government will Ould Mouknass. for the opposition to mobilise the public probably be expressed on the streets Future gas revenues will provide over policy issues rather than falling – as it already has been, briefly, with some extra margin for spending, but not back on sectional bases of support. protests and barricades in opposition- until 2021 at the earliest, and initially not Ghazouani enters office with some supporting districts of Nouakchott since in large volume. Abdel Aziz did much to room for manoeuvre, and following last the election result. cultivate regional relations, particularly September’s legislative, municipal and This discontent is a reminder to through the G5 Sahel grouping and regional polls, the electoral calendar Ghazouani that there are serious rejuvenated economic links with the now provides him with time to show development challenges to be tackled, Economic Community of West African what he can do. particularly if the government wants to States (ECOWAS). Ghazouani now has a keep youth discontent in check. As Abdel personal diplomatic profile to establish, OPPOSITION BOOST Aziz recognised, alongside security, a priority if he is to be regarded both Meanwhile, after the disappointment social and economic programmes have by Arab governments and his West of last September, the strong results in to be part of the strategy for countering African neighbours as more than his defeat in the presidential contest should any resurgence in the appeal of jihadist predecessor’s protégé. l

TUNISIA when preference for his ambitious son Hafedh Caïd Essebsi alienated Nobbling Nabil swathes of NT members. His relations with the authorities have since soured, and Nessma TV was ordered off-air for alleged infractions of the broadcasting The establishment has taken fright at popular new politicians, and is trying to code; it has since returned. kill off genuine challenges to the president and ruling party Karoui emerged as a star in his own right via a popular show on Nessma TV, Khalil Tounès, personally distributing political class absorbed by (NT) and the Islamist Hizb Ennahda largesse on air to poor Tunisians. While the painfully long run-up to are rattled. Lawmakers passed an local polls are not the most accurate, A parliamentary elections on 6 amendment to the 2011 post-Ben Ali they give Karoui 25% and potentially October and the presidential poll on electoral law in early June banning more of the vote among a generally 17 November has suddenly found itself heads of charitable associations from apathetic electorate. Karoui has been with a surprise outsider to contend standing in elections. The overtly planning to create a party to run in with. Tunisians have been wondering political move only serves to deepen October’s parliamentary polls before he whether local media magnate and Tunisians’ alienation from politics. stands for president in November. television ‘champion of the poor’ Nabil From a Bizerte family, Karoui and Karoui could emerge as a Donald his brother Ghazi have developed DISRUPTERS Trump figure, leveraging his celebrity a rare cutting-edge North African Former London-based derivatives trader to take over the presidency, for which media business. For more than 20 Terras and her co-leader in the 3ich he is one of the few candidates to have years, the Karouis have cultivated Tounsi movement, Selim Ben Hassen, declared (AC Vol 60 No 3). Or whether top international media partners to have travelled from being comfortably Olfa Terras – married to French hedge build their business. As well as the off Franco-Tunisian activists to fund millionaire and philanthropist candidate’s Karoui & Karoui World disruptive players in domestic politics. Guillaume Rambourg – could be the (KKW) group, their Nessma TV boasts The movement got a lot of publicity candidate to channel a movement partly among its shareholders Mediaset, when it paid for giant screens for inspired by La République En Marche, owned by Italian ex-premier Silvio football fans to watch the 2018 World which brought Emmanuel Macron Berlusconi – the very model of a media Cup in down-at-heel towns like Rejim to the French presidency. Both have magnate turned populist politician – Maatoug, Mellassine and Kef, which are found the limelight leading civil society and veteran film producer Tarak Ben habitually ignored by administrations Property of Asempa Limited associations, rather than conventional Ammar (nephew of Tunisia’s founding in Tunis. parties. Now, the parties have struck President Habib Bourguiba). A founder At the core of 3ich’s appeal has been back. member of NT – whose successful its polling of ordinary citizens to hear Established parties led by President election campaigns KKW promoted in their concerns, and then to turn these Beji Caïd Essebsi’s Nidaa Tounès 2014 – Karoui split from the President grievances into a political programme.

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Even if Terras doesn’t currently seem elections are held? Ennahda’s veteran After another discouraging Sigma poll to have Karoui’s heft among ordinary leader Rachid Ghannouchi has said he in early May, Ghannouchi observed that Tunisians (and she has yet to say if will not compete in the presidential poll ‘Ennahda has gone from 33% voting she will stand), 3ich and its ‘collective (AC Vol 57 No 11). Ennahda is biding its intentions to 18% in a single month. project’ has already shown up the time; its Shura Council met in mid-June We are wondering what disaster struck established parties. but failed to name a candidate. Other the political landscape to cause such a Their reaction was speedy: the contenders are expected to include reversal?’ amendment to the electoral law Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who Part of the answer lay with Karoui; forbidding individuals who have received has built support for his new Tahya in a more recent poll, conducted by or provided charitable donations to Tounès (TT) party. Chahed has yet to Emrhod Consulting before the ban, he Tunisians within the past year from confirm he will stand, but TT secretary- scored 26.5% compared with Chahed standing in elections was passed by 128 general Selim Azzabi says the party – on just 5.8% and others doing even to 30 votes, with 14 deputies abstaining. which he says has over 80,000 members worse. No wonder voters haven’t been Karoui stood down from his charity, – will field a candidate. rushing to register. In what is often also called Khalil Tounès, after the legal None of the established parties is called the only democracy to survive change. Also affected is Parti Destourien doing well. Ennahda’s vote is tumbling. the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings, politics has Libre leader Abir Moussi, who called the A Sigma Conseil poll gave the Islamist not provided the answer for millions move ‘a joke’. party only 24.7% of the vote – ahead who might instead prefer to put their Will it be business as usual when of NT with 20% and TT with 11.9%. trust in reality TV. l KENYA the Commission’s existing systems. Citing time pressures, the secretariat ‘Rot’ in the Commission opted instead to directly procure EVID as well as Biometric Voter Registration equipment from Safran Identity & Security (SIS), even though several A parliamentary probe into the management of the 2017 elections found serial other elections technology bidders had irregularities and recommends possible criminal charges lodged successful appeals against the tender award at the Public Procurement Appeals Regulatory Board (PPARB). hen, in April, the Kenyan mess of inflated bills, technology failure Eighteen months later, the parliament’s Public Accounts and malfeasance at senior levels. In Commission is saddled with a $39m WCommittee (PAC) delivered its that report too, IDEMIA (then known as debt, several lawsuits from unpaid report on the Independent Electoral and Morpho SAS) had supplied technology suppliers, and discredited sitting Boundaries Commission’s performance systems that failed. commissioners, all of whom parliament during the 2017 elections, it found The Auditor-General noted that the has recommended for dismissal and the Commission guilty of a host of Commission had costed the election at possible criminal and civil charges. sins, including mismanagement of the 2,540 shillings per voter (US$25.40), Just as crucially, in adopting the PAC’s elections budget. five times the global average of $5 report, parliament banned IDEMIA ‘During our inquiries, it was clear and several times more expensive from doing any business with the right from the outset that prudent than other African elections during government for 10 years (AC Vol 60 management of public resources by the the same period and, after Papua New No 8). The House chose to cite IDEMIA IEBC had been sacrificed at the altar Guinea, the world’s most expensive for operating in Kenya without having of self-aggrandisement. Speculators (AC Vol 58 No 21). The AG also noted been registered locally, a legal loophole and wheeler-dealers had a field day as that Chiloba had signed Ksh12.2 billion that judiciously deflects any political internal controls, where they existed, ($122 million) worth of contracts shrapnel that would implicate the ruling failed or were made to fail spectacularly,’ that were unsupported by mandatory Jubilee party in the chaotic August 2017 wrote the PAC chair, Opiyo Wandayi, performance security bonds. election. IDEMIA executives told the an MP for Raila Odinga’s Orange PAC they had fulfilled their obligations, Democratic Movement (ODM). TECHNOLOGY did not need a local office, and still Among those censured – including Specifically linked to IDEMIA is one had a number of contracts with the former IEBC chief executive, Ezra of the two ‘keystone contracts’: the government. Chiloba, the six other commissioners, acquisition of technology. (The other The immediate fate of the including the chair, Wafula Chebukati, was the controversial contract to supply Commission, while uncertain, is not as and senior staffers, notably IT team ballot papers, which went to the Emirati dire as it could be because the politics of leader James Muhati and head of the printers, Al Ghurair – AC Vol 58 No 15). the Kenyatta succession is being played legal division Praxedes Tororey – was Chiloba, who was sacked in October out elsewhere, leaving establishment the French security printing company, after refusing to appear before the IEBC’s interest in the Commission low. Going IDEMIA, which supplied the technology disciplinary board, is accused of at by the post-2013 activism against the for the elections. least twice wilfully ignoring the IEBC’s Commission, which ultimately resulted The PAC report, whose inquiries plenary resolutions that, for cost-saving in that Commission’s demise less than were triggered by the Auditor-General’s purposes, it would lease Electronic a year before the 2017 elections, the audit of the IEBC, provides a glimpse Voter Identification systems from an seeds of a future crisis have already Property of Asempa Limited of what it describes as ‘the rot that has African country – Nigeria, Ghana and been sown. With the national census come to be associated with the IEBC’. Ivory Coast, all of which had recently slated for later this year, alongside The similarities with parliament’s conducted ‘electronic elections’ were an electoral boundaries reviews, the report on the IEBC’s performance mooted – rather than going for the IEBC will have to be reconstituted during the 2013 elections are many: a more expensive option of upgrading before either exercise can be carried

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out, meaning it will probably be done its second term. was passed to the reform law allowing hurriedly and chaotically. Last year, one of the bidders for the for manual counting of ballots. IDEMIA still has a relationship with 2017 election technology contracts, Correspondence seen by Africa the Commission and the executive. Kanuri Ltd, took the IEBC and IDEMIA Confidential, part of the annexes of a Last year the Jubilee government to court. A Kenyan technology company, tender complaint launched by Dittel quietly commissioned IDEMIA to supply Kanuri had partnered with the French Technologies, a local company that 35,000 BVR kits at a cost of $59m for its security printing firm Gemalto to bid was bidding for the IEBC technology intended digitised national ID project, for the Kenya Integrated Electoral tender, alleges that the Commission’s Huduma Namba (AC Vol 60 No 8). Management System tender. After the secretariat had approached SIS as early Parliament’s April resolution barring IEBC announced that it had awarded the as September 2016 (before the passage IDEMIA from doing business with the tender to SIS, as IDEMIA was previously of the electoral reform bill) to design government seemed to put the validity known, Gemalto appealed to the its own terms of reference for the 2017 of the entire exercise in question. PPARB, arguing that the award of the elections technology tender. In the MS However, the cabinet’s Information tender was irregular since the Tender Word document AC has seen, two SIS Communications, and Technology Committee had earlier disqualified SIS officials changed the original terms of secretary, Joe Mucheru, has since on technical grounds. The Board upheld reference 45 times in an apparent effort argued that the ban against IDEMIA Gemalto’s petition. So, the Commission to tailor the tender to SIS’s purposes. was only imposed after the government changed tack and, in contravention of However, the Kenyan company that had had made the order, and so it could not its internal provisions, directly procured originally lodged this complaint against be applied retrospectively. SIS’s services. the Commission, Dittel Technologies, Addressing the PAC during the IEBC later withdrew the complaint. hearings, IDEMIA’s executives explained MANUAL DRIVE In the end, it was the Commission’s that the firm had met all its obligations as In early October 2016, Chiloba made a failure to secure a back-up that cost it, far as the 2017 elections were concerned. presentation at the National Security and Uhuru Kenyatta, the August 2017 They also pointed out that they had not Council, the country’s top security elections during the Supreme Court been fully paid on their 2017 contract. supervisory organ, during which he of Kenya case. Demands from the Insiders speculate that these pending expressed fears about the passage in Supreme Court to ‘open the servers’ for bills may have been smuggled into the parliament of a bipartisan electoral scrutiny could not be met in a timely Huduma Namba BVR contract. reform law that exclusively adopted fashion and, as such, the true results of The government has been an electronic election management the August 2017 elections have never determinedly opaque, both about the system, excluding the possibility of a been made public. ‘It is safe to conclude Huduma Namba contract and the status manual count. It was only after he was that…the true cost of the August 2017 of monies owed to IDEMIA. Despite the invited to re-present his concerns at the General Elections and the repeat lack of establishment interest in the PAC NSC six weeks later that, apparently, October 2017 presidential election may reports, the investigations into financial the full implications of what he was never be known,’ says the PAC in its improprieties at the Commission have saying were understood. Weeks later, report on the IEBC, ‘But one thing is shone a light on how the Kenyatta in mid-December 2016, Parliament was clear: it is a cost that was highly inflated administration, its enemies say, recalled from its Christmas break and, and the taxpayers did not get value for ‘captured’ the Commission and secured amid chaotic scenes, an amendment their investment.’ l Subscribing to Africa Confidential

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Africa Confidential • 28 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 13 11 Prepared for Fao (Un Food & Agriculture Organization)2433 Fao (Un Food & Agriculture Organization)2433 on 24/07/2019 at 14:22. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. U128913 Administration

the distribution of images and video it was 80%. Thus, the 1,166,000 people POINTERS of a terrorist incident in the absence of that CNE says have registered in Gaza prior official authorisation. Fines of up to is 161% of adults identified in the 2017 10 million CFA francs ($17,000) and jail census. This could give President Filipe terms of between one and five years could Nyusi an extra 307,000 votes, CIP says. Mali be imposed. Zambezia province’s population, where MILITIA STARTS SCARE The protestors are in no doubt that support for Frelimo is generally lower, n At first sight, it looked like ethnic the restrictions are meant to prevent was declared to be only 41% adult. cleansing by communiqué. The any independent reporting of incidents The poorly organised main predominantly Dogon militia Dana similar to the government’s claimed opposition party, the Resistência Ambassagou, led by Youssouf Toloba, ‘neutralisation’ of 146 ‘terrorists’ in a Nacional de Moçambique (Renamo), issued a statement on 17 June to the northern village in February. Human would be unlikely to win, even on a level effect that all Fulani (or Peuhl) and those rights organisations believe it was in fact playing field, pundits say (AC 57 No 10). speaking the language should leave a massacre of Fulani (or Peuhl) herders But Frelimo is afraid of a protest vote the town of Bandiagara, in Central Mali, (AC Vol 60 No 4). boosting Renamo and diverting votes within three days (AC Vol 60 No 8). Local journalists told Africa to smaller opposition parties. A two- A police statement said doctors, Confidential that the new measures round presidential election could result imams, community leaders and effectively make it illegal for them in President Nyusi losing. bankers were leaving the town. Dana to cover their country’s anti-terrorist Meanwhile, Frelimo has been making Ambassagou was formally disbanded efforts and aims to protect the FDS a show of being tough on corruption by the government after it was held from scrutiny. The new code, they say, while not acting over the $2bn hidden responsible for a killing spree in March in will also have a chilling effect on the loans scandal. Several high-profile party Ogossagou that left at least 160 dead. It kind of investigative journalism that members have been arrested, but little ignores the ban and has taken to issuing made the late Norbert Zongo, killed by real action taken. statements from the capital, Bamako, the clan surrounding former President including one denying that it had ever Blaise Compaoré, a national hero and Algeria ordered the Fulani out of Bandiagara. forged Burkina Faso’s high reputation ROUNDING UP UNUSUAL SUSPECTS Confusion has engulfed Central Mali, for reporting in Francophone Africa (AC n Once, four-time premier Ahmed with neither the army nor the United Vol 40 No 20). Ouyahia was seen as a possible Nations Multidimensional Integrated The country awaits the return of ex- successor to President Abdelaziz Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) president Compaoré’s younger brother, Bouteflika. Likewise, Boutef’s campaign able to contain the violence between François, who is widely blamed for manager and ex-premier Abdelmalek Dogon and Fulani. MINUSMA’S mandate Zongo’s murder, now that France’s Sellal. With the trust of the ex-president comes up for renewal at the UN on highest court has given clearance for his and the security services behind them, 29 June. extradition. This could embarrass the they looked unbeatable. Now, they are On 19 June, the UN Secretary current government, including president in prison. The remnants of the old guard General’s Special Representative President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, running Algerian politics, led by Lieut- for Mali, Mahamat Saleh Annadif, who was a pillar of the Compaoré Gen Ahmed Gaïd Salah, have imprisoned announced an increase in patrols in the government for 25 years. them to convince the sceptical Hirak troubled zone. A day later, President protest movement that it can carry Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta announced the Mozambique out a clean sweep. Neighbouring cells appointment of former interim President FRELIMO ON A ROLL in El Harrach civil and Blida military Dioncounda Traoré as Presidential High n Voter-registration has been hijacked prisons are inhabited by more and Representative for Central Mali, although by the ruling Frente de Libertação more ‘oligarchs’ who got rich from their it is unclear what his mandate is. Most de Moçambique, which is blatantly connections to the Bouteflika clan. Malians remember the charisma-free inflating the electoral roll with ghost Ouyahia was arrested on 12 June, Traoré for being chased out of the voters in order to win a clear majority in Sellal the next day. A Supreme Court presidential palace by a mob in 2012 (AC parliament and minimise the chance of judge is investigating Sellal’s alleged Vol 53 Nos 11 and 25). the presidential contest going to a second links to the imprisoned oligarchs Ali These initiatives seem desperate to round, observers claim. The elections are Haddad and the Kouninef brothers. knowledgeable observers. They depend due in October. Opposition strongholds Investigators are swarming over the on the good will of armed groups that have lost parliamentary seats in the previously untouchable Ouyahia’s have never signed the central plank of registration exercise while Gaza province, affairs. Also under the judicial government and MINUSMA actions: the where Frelimo expects a firm win, has microscope is fast-rising businessman 2015 Algiers Peace Accord. been allocated nine additional seats by Ayoub Aissiou, whom Hirak members the electoral commission, the Comissão are linking to his fellow Kabyle Ouyahia. Burkina Faso Nacional de Eleições (CNE). Behind them all was presidential GAG ON SECURITY REPORTING The authorities report that 90% of brother Saïd Bouteflika, also in prison. n Burkina Faso’s National Assembly voting age citizens have registered, but Hirak claims that Saïd pushed Ouyahia to voted in a new law on 21 June heavily local transparency watchdog the Centro back Aissiou’s Atlantis Motor Company, restricting freedom of speech. Human de Integridade Pública (CIP) spotted a vehicle assembly project with Ford rights organisations and press freedom massive anomalies. which opponents of the ancien régime advocates are up in arms. Under Article In an article for local think-tank, regard with great suspicion.

312 of the new penal code, sanctions will the Instituto de Estudos Socias e Many more arrests are likely. Among Property of Asempa Limited apply for acts aimed at ‘demoralising the Economicas, this month, academic others nabbed in latest sweep were Forces de défense et de sécurité’ (FDS, the António Francisco observed out that bankers Achour Aboud and Omar national army). It also promises to punish while the 2017 national census found Boudiab and Groupe Sovac head Mourad any action that could ‘compromise’ FDS that 47% of the population was over Eulmi. Gaïd Salah’s former friends in the anti-terrorist operations, and criminalises 18, in Gaza, according to CNE figures, business elite have been warned.

12 28 June 2019 • Vol 60 - N° 13 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Fao (Un Food & Agriculture Organization)2433 Fao (Un Food & Agriculture Organization)2433 on 24/07/2019 at 14:22. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected].