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Double Counting Error APPENDIX F Response 4 25 October 2005 Edinburgh Tram (Line One) Bill Committee Consideration Stage – Phase 1 Responses to the undertakings in the Preliminary Stage Report Question Confirmation, before Final Stage, of whether the double counting error on route 22 affects other roads quoted in Table 4 in Response 19 (as there are large differences on other roads),or whether there are other reasons to explain the differences. In addition updated versions of Tables 4, 5 and 6 in Response 17 (taking into account this error) should be provided. Response 1 A further review of the bus survey information has been undertaken and we are content that there are no other instances of double counting as highlighted previously. Updated versions of Tables 4 and 5 from Response 17 to take account of the previous double-counting error detailed in Response 19 are included below. It should be noted that Table 6 contained no error but has been included for completeness. Table 4 AM Peak Bus Passenger Flows Bus veh Passengers LINE 1 survey R1C Diff % survey R1C Diff % 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 62 43 -19 -31% 2653 3198 545 21% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 58 40 -18 -31% 486 970 484 100% 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 218 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 216 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 51 49 -13 -21% 2653 3416 763 29% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 47 46 -12 -21% 486 1186 700 144% 1B Inbound - Queensferry Road 42 20 -22 -52% 1776 687 -1089 -61% 1B Outbound - Queensferry Road 30 21 -9 -30% 682 502 -180 -26% 1C Inbound - Orchard Brae 16 12 -4 -25% 720 349 -371 -52% 1C Outbound - Orchard Brae 16 12 -4 -25% 506 332 -174 -34% 1D Inbound - Comely Bank Road 7 12 5 71% 286 236 -50 -18% 1D Outbound - Comely Bank Road 8 12 4 50% 218 153 -65 -30% 1E Inbound - Inverleith Road 20 19 -1 -5% 696 810 114 16% 1E Outbound - Inverleith Road 19 19 0 0% 171 461 290 169% 1F Inbound - Broughton Road 3 2 -1 -33% 101 14 -87 -86% 1F Outbound - Broughton Road 3 2 -1 -33% 54 3 -51 -95% 1G Inbound - Leith Walk 51 47 -15 -24% 2589 2171 -418 -16% 1G Outbound - Leith Walk 47 47 -11 -19% 1300 1265 -35 -3% 1H Inbound - London Road 53 58 5 9% 3468 2585 -883 -25% 1H Outbound - London Road 48 57 9 19% 537 726 189 35% 1I Inbound - Regent Road 7 3 -4 -57% 326 74 -252 -77% 1I Outbound - Regent Road 2 2 0 0% 12 17 5 43% 1K Inbound Ferry Road 8 9 1 13% 203 167 -36 -18% 1K Outbound Ferry Road 9 8 -1 -11% 289 157 -132 -46% 1L Inbound Starbank Road 6 7 1 17% 80 226 146 183% 1L Outbound Starbank Road 5 7 2 40% 67 186 119 177% Inbound 275 238 -37 -13% 12898 10734 -2164 -17% Outbound 245 233 -12 -5% 4322 4987 665 15% TOTAL 520 471 -49 -9% 17220 15721 -1499 -9% APPENDIX F Table 5 IP Peak Bus Passenger Flows Bus veh Passengers LINE 1 survey R1C Diff % survey R1C Diff % 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 52 44 -8 -15% 1013.38 758 -256 -25% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 49 44 -5 -10% 609.5 597 -12 -2% 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 167 Airport bus 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 164 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 52 50 -2 -3% 1013.38 924 -89 -9% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 49 50 1 3% 609.5 762 152 25% 1B Inbound - Queensferry Road 26 21 -5 -20% 537.5 349 -189 -35% 1B Outbound - Queensferry Road 26 22 -4 -16% 582.125 341 -241 -41% 1C Inbound - Orchard Brae 14 12 -2 -17% 419.875 193 -227 -54% 1C Outbound - Orchard Brae 14 12 -2 -14% 228.875 175 -54 -24% 1D Inbound - Comely Bank Road 9 12 3 33% 180.875 108 -73 -41% 1D Outbound - Comely Bank Road 9 12 4 41% 125.5 95 -31 -24% 1E Inbound - Inverleith Road 21 19 -2 -7% 285.75 398 112 39% 1E Outbound - Inverleith Road 20 19 -1 -6% 204.125 331 126 62% 1F Inbound - Broughton Road 4 2 -2 -43% 30.5 12 -18 -60% 1F Outbound - Broughton Road 4 2 -2 -45% 36.875 7 -30 -80% 1G Inbound - Leith Walk 51 47 -15 -25% 955.625 953 -3 0% 1G Outbound - Leith Walk 47 47 -8 -14% 1040.13 903 -137 -13% 1H Inbound - London Road 53 57 4 7% 1503.88 864 -640 -43% 1H Outbound - London Road 52 58 6 11% 1249.25 812 -437 -35% 1I Inbound - Regent Road 10 2 -8 -79% 176 20 -156 -88% 1I Outbound - Regent Road 3 2 -1 -33% 25.625 18 -8 -30% 1K Inbound Ferry Road 8 9 1 7% 111.625 86 -26 -23% 1K Outbound Ferry Road 9 9 0 3% 186.125 86 -100 -54% 1L Inbound Starbank Road 7 7 0 2% 119.5 99 -20 -17% 1L Outbound Starbank Road 7 7 0 6% 84 135 51 61% Inbound 254 238 -16 -6% 5334.5 4006 -1329 -25% Outbound 239 240 1 0% 4372.13 3665 -707 -16% TOTAL 493 478 -15 -3% 9706.63 7670 -2036 -21% Table 6 PM Peak Bus Passenger Flows Bus veh Passengers LINE 1 survey R1C Diff % survey R1C Diff % 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 53 45 -8 -15% 993 963 -30 -3% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 57 50 -7 -12% 2475 2122 -353 -14% 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 229 Airport bus 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 6 241 1A Inbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 53 51 -2 -4% 993 1192 199 20% 1A Outbound - West Coates (A8 Inner) 57 56 -1 -2% 2475 2363 -112 -5% 1B Inbound - Queensferry Road 25 21 -4 -16% 360 490 130 36% 1B Outbound - Queensferry Road 28 22 -6 -21% 1250 596 -654 -52% 1C Inbound - Orchard Brae 12 13 1 8% 382 314 -68 -18% 1C Outbound - Orchard Brae 15 12 -3 -20% 504 330 -174 -35% 1D Inbound - Comely Bank Road 6 12 6 100% 137 125 -12 -9% 1D Outbound - Comely Bank Road 7 12 5 71% 226 289 63 28% 1E Inbound - Inverleith Road 20 19 -1 -5% 298 432 134 45% 1E Outbound - Inverleith Road 18 19 1 6% 512 774 262 51% 1F Inbound - Broughton Road 3 2 -1 -33% 21 21 0 -1% 1F Outbound - Broughton Road 2 2 0 0% 28 5 -23 -84% 1G Inbound - Leith Walk 48 47 -1 -2% 968 1283 315 33% 1G Outbound - Leith Walk 49 47 -2 -4% 2734 2007 -727 -27% 1H Inbound - London Road 42 57 15 36% 1604 751 -853 -53% 1H Outbound - London Road 63 62 -1 -2% 3777 2302 -1475 -39% 1I Inbound - Regent Road 11 2 -9 -82% 112 30 -82 -73% 1I Outbound - Regent Road 9 2 -7 -78% 135 29 -106 -78% 1K Inbound Ferry Road 9 9 0 0% 102 170 68 67% 1K Outbound Ferry Road 9 8 -1 -11% 255 112 -143 -56% 1L Inbound Starbank Road 8 7 -1 -13% 142 221 79 56% 1L Outbou nd Starbank Road 7 7 0 0% 128 141 13 10% Inboun d 237 240 3 1% 5119 5029 -90 -2% Outbou nd 264 249 -15 -6% 12024 8948 -3076 -26% TOTAL 501 489 -12 -2% 17143 13976 -3167 -18% 2 It should be noted that there are some differences between the observed and modelled bus flows. This is likely to be due to a number of reasons: • General variability associated with traffic surveys; • Daily fluctuation associated with the running of particular bus services; • Updated timetable information incorporated in the model in March 2003, principally reflecting Lothian Buses service at that time and therefore changes to other operator services were not included in the model. APPENDIX F 3 As outlined in Response 19 notwithstanding the validation error identified previously associated with the isolated survey on Leith Walk, it is considered that the forecasts produced to date represent a robust basis on which to appraise the scheme. 4 Further information relating to the model calibration and validation is provided within Response 5. .
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