Minnesota WeatherTalk January-December 2016 Cold Air Coming Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 08, 2016 By Mark Seeley, University of Minnesota Extension Climatologist

The National Weather Service offered an advisory to Minnesota citizens earlier this week about the expected spell of colder than normal weather which will start this weekend and linger through much of next week. This is likely to bring daily maximum temperatures in the subzero range for northern Minnesota, and just the single digits for the south, with common wind chill conditions that range from the teens below zero to -30sF. This Quick Fact Sheet was issued by the NWS earlier this week.

Click to enlarge.

Since the forecast calls for temperatures from just 0°F to 4°F during the day on Sunday (Jan 10), it is very likely that the weather conditions for the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks football game at TCF Bank Stadium this weekend will be among the coldest in NFL playoff history. According to NFL.com the coldest game time temperatures in the NFL playoffs were:

2°F for Dec 22, 1990, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Packers vs Lions) 0°F for Jan 15, 1994, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY (Bills vs Raiders) Dec 26, 1993, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Packers vs Raiders) Dec 10, 1972, Metropolitan Stadium, Bloomington, MN (Vikings vs Packers) -2°F for Dec 3, 1972, Metropolitan Stadium, Bloomington, MN (Vikings vs Bears) -4°F for Jan 20, 2008, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Packers vs Giants) -5°F for Jan 4, 1981, Cleveland Municipal Stadium, Cleveland, OH (Browns vs Raiders) -6°F for Jan 7, 1996, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO (Chiefs vs Colts)

-9°F for Jan 10, 1982, Riverfront Stadium, Cincinnati, OH (Bengals vs Chargers) -13°F for Dec 31, 1967, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI (Packers vs Cowboys) In many cases the temperatures during the game did not indicate how severe the wind chill conditions were, ranging from the -20°F to -50s°F. In these 10 cold games the home team managed to win only 5 times (50%), but the west coast teams (Raiders and Chargers) managed only 1 win in 4 tries. We'll see what happens.

Low December Sunshine The University of Minnesota St Paul Campus Climate Observatory has measured daily solar radiation since 1962. This is a record of the total energy from the sun that reaches the Earth's surface here in St Paul. The daily amount is correlated highly to the elevation angle of the sun, day length, cloudiness, and turbidity of the atmosphere (smoke, haze, etc.). It is worth noting that last month brought the least amount of solar radiation for any December measured since 1962, breaking the record low value from last year. This is not instrument error or degradation. The instruments have been checked by Dave Ruschy, who managed the Climate Observatory for decades. So, if your perception was that of a very cloudy December just past, these measurements sure substantiate it!

Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, Jan 28th Registration is now open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis. This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources. At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayors panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation.

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) released their annual review of the 2015 climate for the USA. Countrywide it was the 2nd warmest year on record, trailing only 2012. The month of December was the warmest of record.

According to the United Kingdom Meteorological Office December 2015 was the warmest of record across the UK dating back to 1910. Further December 2015 was the wettest of record, and also the single wettest month in history.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology it is likely that the current El Nino episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has peaked and will be on the decline in coming months. Their models project that El Nino will evolve into a "neutral state" by the second quarter of the year (April-June).

A recent study from Stockholm University posted in Nature Geoscience suggests that high northern latitude lakes will likely emit from 20-50 percent more methane into the atmosphere under scenarios of 21st Century climate change. Such emissions will further accelerate the pace of climate change.

As part of NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit there is a new web-based tool to increase awareness about climate change impacts around Lake Superior. It is certainly suitable for K-12 school use, and some community’s leaders might wish to use it as well.

MPR Listener Question Snowfall has been relatively scarce so far this winter in the Twin Cities. What is the average number of days that bring measurable snowfall each winter for the Twin Cities, and do you think the rest of the winter will bring more snow?

Answer The climate history for the Twin Cities shows an average of 40 days each winter that bring measurable snowfall (defined as 0.1 inches or greater). The largest value is 55 days in the winter of 1884-1885 and again in 1887-1888, and the smallest, only 19 days in 1890-1891 and again in the winter of 1930-1931. So far in the winter of 2015-2016 there have been 12 days with measurable snowfall in the Twin Cities. BTW the most for any one month is 18 days which occurred in the Decembers of 1969 and 2000, and again in January of 2011.

As for the rest of our winter, I am sure we will have more snow, but overall the outlook models suggest less than the normal amount for the balance of winter.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 8th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 8th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 2003; lowest daily maximum temperature of -7 degrees F in 1887: lowest daily minimum

temperature is -30 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 36° F in 1880; record precipitation of 0.33 inches 1875; and record snowfall of 2.5 inches in 1909.

Average dew point for January 8th is 5 degrees F, with a maximum of 36 degrees F in 2002 and a minimum of -33 degrees F in 1977.

All-time state records for January 8th The state record high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) and Winnebago (Faribault County) in 2003. The state record low temperature for this date is -48 degrees F at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1887. State record precipitation for this date is 1.14 inches at Tamarac Refuge (Becker County) in 1989; and record snowfall is 17.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1969.

Past Weather Features Arctic cold prevailed on January 8, 1887. Following a fresh snowfall during the first week of the year, temperatures fell on the 8th to -48°F at Moorhead, -37°F at Morris, -28°F in the Twin Cities, -25°F at Albert Lea and Rochester, and -24°F at Duluth. During the second week of the month temperatures rebounded into the 20s and 30s F.

A slow moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the state over January 5-8, 1969. Many northern communities reported over 10 inches of snow. The central part of the state reported 6- 9 inches. It turned out to be a very snowy month of January, as 10 northern communities reported more than 40 inches. Isabella reported a record 63.1 inches of snow that January.

Arctic cold air dominated Minnesota on January 8, 1973 with 14 northern climate stations reporting morning lows of -40°F or colder. The temperature never rose higher than -13°F at Crookston that day.

The warmest January 8th in state history occurred in 2003 when over 60 southern and western communities saw afternoon temperatures soar into the 50s F. Bright sunshine, absence of snow, and modest southerly winds enhance the warmth. Some people took lunch outside in short sleeve shirts.

Outlook Saturday will be a change-over day with strong winds ushering in much colder air. Colder than normal temperatures will dominate through the weekend and well into next week. Highs will range from single digits above zero in the south to single digits below zero in the north. Some moderation in temperatures closer to normal will occur by the end of next week.

Colder than normal temperatures, then moderation Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 15, 2016 By Mark Seeley

For perspective, the colder than normal temperatures which prevailed this week over January 9-13 were the most significant since the first week of March last year. The average departure from normal temperature in the Twin Cities for January 9-13 was 13°F less than average, the largest magnitude since March 2-6, 2015 when temperatures averaged 14°F less than average. The recent string of colder than normal days across Minnesota is exceptionally unusual in the context of the prevailing climate pattern since September 1st. From September 1, 2015 to January 8, of this year (130 days) over 82 percent of all days produced above normal temperatures in the state, a level of persistent warmth that is rare.

A short mid-week respite from the cold pattern prevailed on Thursday (Jan 14), pushing daytime high temperatures well above normal for mid-January, even mid 30s F at some locations. But even colder air waits for the forthcoming days, as temperatures for the MLK long weekend and early next week may fall 15-20 degrees F colder than normal. Most models are pointing to warmer than normal conditions once again prevailing for the last 10 days of January, so the cold spell may be relatively short-lived.

Announcement: 3rd Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, January 28, 2016 Registration is still open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis. This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources. At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayors’ panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation.

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota. Weekly Weather Potpourri The Minnesota State Climatology Office has resumed and published an update on the "Winter Misery Index (WMI)" for the Twin Cities. The WMI factors in colder than normal temperatures, accumulating snowfall, and snow depth as the season progresses. So far this winter the WMI has accumulated only 14 points on this scale, a very modest number. Last winter's WMI was a total of 55 points and the winter before (2013-2014)

totaled 207 points, one of the highest values historically.

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center recently released a climate summary for the past year, 2015. Their report also highlights 10 weather/climate disasters that resulted in at least $1 billion losses. Much of this was due to the wildfires and drought in the western states and tornadoes and flooding in the southern plains states.

Multiple federal, state, and regional agencies are sponsoring the "Midwest Climate Outlook and Drought Early Warning System Kickoff Meeting" over February 9-11, 2016 in St. Louis, MO. This meeting is intended for water and land resource managers to share data analysis, plan, and development approaches for dealing with expected drought or other climate anomalies that may be expected in 2016.

Registration is now open for the Minnesota Governors Water Summit, which will take place on Saturday, February 27, 2016. The summit will focus public attention on the serious challenges facing Minnesota’s water supplies in both rural and urban areas of the state and continue statewide dialogue around steps that must be taken to address those challenges. The summit will bring together water quality experts, farmers, legislators, regulators, the business community, members of the public, local leaders, and a wide variety of other stakeholders.

The Washington Post featured a story this week about Richard Hendrickson, regarded as one of the nation's longest serving Cooperative Weather Observers. He passed away at the age of 103 years old on January 9, 2016. Mr. Hendrickson became an observer for the National Weather Service in 1930, making continuous daily observations from his poultry and dairy farm on Long Island, NY until his death. He compiled over 150,000 measurements and observations in his lifetime as a weather observer, over 85 years of record-keeping. His farm and weather station endured the famous 1938 hurricane which struck Long Island and did considerable damage, as well

as drowning over 4000 of his farm chicks.

This week Hurricane Alex formed in the North Atlantic Ocean, the first hurricane to form in that region of the world during the month of January since 1938. Its peak 85mph winds make it the strongest Atlantic hurricane to form in the month of January as well. The storm is expected to bring rain, strong winds, and high seas to the Azores before dissipating late in the weekend. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific Ocean Basin tropical cyclone Victor was spinning and gaining strength about 300 miles east of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Winds were expected to exceed over 100 mph over the weekend, but this storm was not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

In its weekly update NOAA's climate.gov web site posted an interesting article about “climate change impacts on the beer industry.” Certainly, climate and climate change have great impact on the ingredients used in the brewing industry, but also on the storage, transportation, and marketing aspects as well.

MPR listener question Which areas of the state have received the most snowfall so far this winter? It seems like we have been in a snow drought.

Answer Indeed, snow depths around most of the state are 8 inches or less, with just a few areas in northeastern Minnesota showing depths of 15 inches or greater. Accumulated snowfall for the season of 2015-2016 so far is below normal at virtually all locations, but there are some communities that have reported over 30 inches, including:

Duluth 33.6" Wolf Ridge 32.7" Brimson 32.2" Lakefield 31.2" Isabella 47.5"

Incidentally climate outlook models for the balance of winter continue to indicate expected less than normal snowfall for Minnesota.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 15th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 15th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of -20 degrees F in 1888: lowest daily minimum temperature is -37 degrees F in 1888; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 F in 1973 and 1980; record precipitation of 0.45 inches 1969; and record snowfall of 3.2 inches in 1953.

Average dew point for January 15th is 4 degrees F, with a maximum of 36 degrees F in 1949 and a minimum of -39 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for January 15th The state record high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1914. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at Moose Lake (Carlton County) in 1972. State record precipitation for this date is 1.28 inches at Campbell (Wilkin County) in 1952; and record snowfall is 20.0 inches at Winsted (McLeod County) in 1969.

Past Weather Features Following the famous Children's Blizzard of January 12, 1888 (killing over 200 people) an Arctic air mass gripped Minnesota for several days. Low temperatures on January 15th included -34°F at Duluth -36°F at Moorhead and Rochester -37°F in the Twin Cities -38°F at Morris

By far the warmest January 15th in state history occurred in 1914 when many observers around the state reported afternoon temperatures in the 40s F. Ten Minnesota communities recorded a high temperature of 50°F or greater that day, only to fall to below zero F values the next week.

In both 1952 and 1953 mid-January brought winter storms to Minnesota, delivering a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Trees and power lines were damaged by thick coatings of ice. Schools were postponed or dismissed early. Some roads were close as numerous accidents occurred, some provoked by high winds that blew cars off the roads.

Mid-January of 1972 brought Arctic cold to Minnesota. Over 50 communities reported a morning low temperature of -40°F or colder. For many areas, the daytime high temperature never rose above -20°F. Outlook Much colder over the weekend with dangerous wind chill values ranging from -20 to -40 degrees F. In many areas’ temperatures will remain below zero degrees F. Continued cold next week, with some moderation in temperature by Wednesday.

2015 Climate Summaries Issued Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 22, 2016 By Mark Seeley

This week NOAA, NASA, the Hadley Centre, and the MN-State Climatology Office all issued climate summaries for the year 2015. The NOAA, Hadley Centre, and NASA summaries highlighted that 2015 was the warmest year globally over the record period 1880 to present, surpassing last year (2014) significantly. This was anticipated by these agencies as 10 of 12 months in 2015 showed significantly warm signatures in temperature, aided by unusually warm ocean temperatures, not just in the equatorial El Nino region, but other regions as well. An animated graphic showing the historical context for the global temperature record was available from Bloomberg.

For the USA specifically the states of Oregon, Washington, Montana, and Florida reported their warmest year in history. Many more western states and southeastern states reported that 2015 was among the 5 warmest years in their respective histories. Texas and Oklahoma reported their wettest year in history for 2015. Many Midwestern states also reported a very wet year as well.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office noted that 2015 was the 7th warmest year in state history dating back to 1895. Only 1987, 2012, 1931, 1998, 2006, and 1999 were warmer. It is interesting to note that 8 of the 10 warmest years in state history have occurred since 1998. Minnesota also recorded its 22nd wettest year in history dating back to 1895 with a statewide average of about 29.40 inches.

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks The NOAA-Climate Prediction Center issued new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday of this week. They favor warmer than normal conditions across Minnesota over February through the balance of the spring season. The outlooks also favor drier than normal conditions across most of the state during the same period.

Last Call for the 3rd Annual CAP Conference, January 28th Registration is still open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis. This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources. At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayors panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation.

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri It was revealed this week that Dr. Piers Sellers is fighting stage 4 cancer. At age 60 years Dr. Sellers is one of NASA's best-known astronauts and climate scientists. He logged over 220 miles in space walks during the Space Shuttle Era and he is a renowned research scientist. In 2013 Dr. Sellers gave the Kuehnast Endowment Lecture at the University of Minnesota and showed pictures from his many missions. He wrote an inspirational op-ed piece in the NY Times this week about dealing with climate change and the future of planet Earth. I encourage you to read it. NOAA National Weather Service issued a Blizzard Warning for portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. for Friday afternoon through Saturday as a major winter storm will affect many states along the Interstate 95 corridor. With snowfall forecasts ranging from 10 to 30 inches, many cities were preparing for possible record snowfall amounts.

NOAA and NASA announced this week the launching of a new satellite. This is a joint USA- European satellite mission called Jason-3 which will orbit the earth in a relatively low position (830 miles distant) and concentrate its measurements on 95 percent of the ice-free oceans. Its' instrument package is designed to help scientists monitor and understand global sea level rise, as well as forecast tropical cyclones.

Speaking of oceans a new study from the University of Maryland released this week finds that with climate change Atlantic Ocean storms stronger than Hurricane Sandy (2012) may strike the USA in a warmer climate future. This paper was published in Geophysical Research Letters and a report on it can be found at Science Daily web site.

Tropical Cyclone Corentin was spinning in the Southern Indian Ocean this week east of the island nation of La Reunion. It was expected to strengthen over the weekend, producing winds over 100 mph and sea wave heights of 30 feet or more. Thankfully, it will remain far out to sea away from any islands.

MPR listener question Over the years you have often spoken about how the winter climate pattern in Alaska tends to track opposite from the pattern in Minnesota? Is this happening again this winter?

Answer The winter temperature patterns so far for MSP (Twin Cities), Anchorage, and Fairbanks, Alaska are not opposites, but in fact similar for December of 2015 with a warmer than average signature. The patterns for January of 2016 temperature are tracking opposite so far, but with milder than normal conditions expected here in Minnesota for the remainder of the month, they may end up being somewhat similar. This would vary from the historical pattern which shows that winter temperature departures are opposite much of the time.

Twin Cities (MSP): Ave Dec (2015) Temp: 30.2°F; departure from normal +10.5°F; 3rd warmest

Fairbanks, AK: Ave Dec (2015) Temp: -2.2°F; departure from normal +1.9°F; 26th warmest

Anchorage, AK: Ave Dec (2015) Temp: 21.5°F; departure from normal +2.5°F; 17th warmest

Twin Cities (MSP): Ave Temp Jan 1-20, 2016 12.5°F; departure from normal -2.9°F; 49th coldest

Fairbanks, AK: Ave Temp Jan 1-20, 2016 2.9°F; departure from normal +11.0°F; 10th warmest

Anchorage, AK: Ave Temp Jan 1-20, 2016 26.5°F; departure from normal +9.3°F, 6th warmest

Twin Cities Almanac for January 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 22nd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1900 and 1942; lowest daily maximum temperature of -17 degrees F in 1936: lowest daily minimum temperature is -34 degrees F in 1936; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 F in 1900; record precipitation of 0.89 inches 1982; and record snowfall of 17.2 inches in 1982.

Average dew point for January 22nd is 5 degrees F, with a maximum of 38 degrees F in 1967 and a minimum of -38 degrees F in 1963.

All-time state records for January 22nd The state record high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1900. The state record low temperature for this date is -51 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1922. State record precipitation for this date is 2.53 inches at Austin (Mower County) in 1973; and record snowfall is 22.0 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1917.

Past Weather Features A major winter storm crossed the state over January 21-22, 1917 depositing over a foot of snow across central and southern counties. Several observers in southwestern Minnesota reported over 20 inches and railroads were closed down from the large drifts.

Bitter Arctic cold gripped the state over January 22-24, 1922. Many observers reported that temperature readings remained sub-zero over all three days. Over 20 communities reported low temperatures of -40F or colder.

January 22, 1936 brought the coldest historical wind chill conditions in Twin Cities history. With a temperature of -34F and a wind speed of 20 mph, the wind chill was -67F. Traffic and street cars were greatly hampered by these conditions and a number of fatalities were attributed to the cold.

January 22, 1942 was the warmest in state history with over 50 communities reporting daytime highs in the 50s F. Nighttime lows remained in the 20s and 30s F with the absence of snow cover. The warmth lasted all the way to the end of the month with several days over 40 degrees

F.

A major winter storm over January 22-23, 1982 brought record-setting snowfalls to many parts of the state and closed many roads and schools. Many areas reported 15-20 inches of snowfall, including the Twin Cities Metro Area. It was one of several storms that contributed to a snowy January. Nine communities reported over 40 inches of snowfall for the month.

Outlook Mostly cloudy skies and warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend. Chance for snow on Monday and Tuesday next week, with temperatures remaining generally warmer than normal much of the week.

Preliminary January Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, January 29, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Despite some temporary visits by Arctic air masses which brought sub-zero temperature readings on at least 7 days, January mean temperatures around the state generally will end up ranging from 1 to 5 degrees F warmer than normal at most locations, a typical signature for an El Nino winter. Extremes for the month ranged from daytime highs in the mid-40s F on January 27th, to a low of just -36°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on the 12th.

January was generally drier than normal, falling 0.1 to 0.25 inches less than normal. Most observers reported less than a half inch of precipitation. Though snowfalls were relatively numerous, amounts were pretty modest. Most climate stations reported less than 6 inches for the month. Only a few locations in northeastern counties received over 10 inches for the month.

It was mostly a cloudy month with fewer than normal sunny days. Mean wind speeds were less than normal as well.

Annual Climate Adaptation Partnership Conference Thursday, January 28th brought the annual statewide Climate Adaptation Conference, hosted at the DoubleTree in North Minneapolis. Over 260 people attended, sharing, and learning about climate adaptation going on in Minnesota. Awards were presented for exemplary work in climate adaptation to: the Macalester College Ready and Resilient Climate Adaptation Research Team (RRCART); the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Fisheries Section; Sunny Ruthchild of Merryweather Farms in southwestern Minnesota; and Jason Edens, Director of Rural Renewable Energy Alliance (RREAL). Congratulations to these winners.

20th Anniversary of the Coldest Groundhog's Day in History On Tuesday of next week, February 2nd, we mark the 20th Anniversary of the Coldest Groundhog's Day in history. It was February 2, 1996 when 13 Minnesota communities reported morning lows of -50°F or colder, including the state record low of -60°F at Tower (St Louis County). It was -42°F as far south as Rushford. By February 8th Tower had warmed from -60°F to a daytime high of 48°F, a temperature rise of 108°F. The Minnesota State Climatology Office web site hosts more details about this episode in Minnesota's weather history.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A large blizzard brought plenty of snow and wind to the mid-Atlantic states last weekend, closing down many services and highways in several states. Some storm total snowfall amounts included: over 30 inches in Baltimore, MD; 40 inches in Oakland,

MD; over 3 feet of snow in Round Hill and Winchester, VA, and Somerset, PA; and over 30 inches at JFK Airport in New York. Many businesses and offices were closed early on Friday (Jan 22) as well as Monday, January 25th. NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information provided a detailed analysis of this storm, ranking it as a Category 4 on the Regional Snowfall Index.

Speaking of snow, heavy snow blanketed parts of Israel, Syria and the Middle East this week, bringing traffic to a stop in many places. Heavy snows were reported in Jerusalem and Hebron, and Palestinian Schools were closed for up to 3 days this week. Syrian refugees in Lebanon had to make do in makeshift shelters enduring the cold and the snow using fire pits and other forms of heat.

Climate Interactive creates tools for people to learn about the science and principles used in climate negotiations as world leaders continue to cope with climate change. Their methods and tool kit are appropriate for use with student and adult learners. You can learn more by going to their web site.

NOAA scientists along with the University of Colorado released a new study this week suggesting that the USA could slash greenhouse gas emissions by 78 percent below 1990 levels over the next 15 years and meet growing energy demands by more widely deploying commercially available technologies to transition to solar and wind power systems.

Tropical Cyclone Stan developed off the coast of Western Australia late this week. It is expected to be a Category 3 storm by the time it comes ashore near Port Hedland this weekend, with winds from 90-100 mph and heavy rainfall. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/09S_291200sair.jpg

MPR Listener Question After hearing you talk about some of the warmest years in Minnesota history last week on the radio with Cathy, my husband and I wondered what are the coldest years in Minnesota history and were they all many decades ago?

Answer On a statewide basis, the coldest 10 years (including ties) in history back to 1895 are 1. 1917 statewide average temperature 35.7F 2. 1950 statewide average temperature 36.5F 3. 1916 and 1951 statewide average temperature 37.2F 4. 1904 statewide average temperature 37.3F 5. 1907 and 1929 statewide average temperature 37.5F 6. 1996 statewide average temperature 37.6F

7. 1924 and 1972 statewide average temperature 37.7F 8. 1979 statewide average temperature 37.8F 9. 1936 statewide average temperature 37.9F 10. 1903 and 1912 statewide average temperature 38.0F

So none of these are recent. The most recent is 20 years ago in 1996.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 29th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 29th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of -15 degrees F in 1951: lowest daily minimum temperature is -29 degrees F in 1951; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 °F in 1906; record precipitation of 0.52 inches 2001; and record snowfall of 5.3 inches in 1967.

Average dew point for January 29th is 3 degrees F, with a maximum of 36 degrees F in 1983 and a minimum of -38 degrees F in 1966.

All-time state records for January 29th The state record high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is -54 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1899. State record precipitation for this date is 1.84 inches at Windom (Cottonwood County) in 1909; and record snowfall is 19.0 inches at Lutsen (Cook County) in 1996.

Past Weather Features An Arctic air mass gripped Minnesota over January 27-30, 1899 producing sub-zero temperature readings in every corner of the state. Eight communities reported morning lows of -40°F or colder, and the temperatures remained colder the -15°F all four days at Tower and Roseau.

Another Arctic air mass made a brief visit to Minnesota on January 29, 1908 pushing temperatures down to -40°F or colder in seven Minnesota communities.

A strong winter storm brought rain, sleet, and snow to Minnesota over January 28-29, 1909. There was even thunder snow reported in the Pipestone area. The mixture of precipitation produced some record daily amounts over 1 inch in places like New Ulm, Caledonia, and Redwood Falls. Some western Minnesota communities reported over 10 inches of snow.

Another strong winter storm brought a mixture of precipitation to the state over January 26-29, 1916. Many observers reported 12 to 25 inches of snow, with 3-foot drifts. Schools and railroads were closed. A severe ice storm struck the southeastern Minnesota counties bringing down trees, poles, and power lines. Some schools were closed for days.

The warmest January 29th in state history occurred in 1931. South winds and sunny skies brought warmer temperatures in the 40s and 50s F to almost all areas of the state except the north shore along Lake Superior. It was 52°F as far north as Moorhead. Over 20 communities reported afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s F.

Outlook Mild temperatures over the weekend and into Monday with chances for occasional and mixed precipitation, perhaps even freezing rain late Saturday. Transition on Tuesday with passage of a strong low-pressure system to the south, may bring significant snow across portions of southern Minnesota. Colder temperatures for Wednesday through Friday of next week.

Record Snowfalls on Groundhog's Day Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 05, 2016 By Mark Seeley

A strong low-pressure system brought widespread heavy snow to parts of eastern Nebraska, northern Iowa, southern and central Minnesota, and western Wisconsin on Groundhog's Day (Feb 2nd). Blizzard conditions, road closures, and early school and business closings were common across much of the region. Overall it was the snowiest Groundhog's Day since 1983 when many climate observers reported record-setting amounts of snowfall, ranging from 6 to 12 inches.

Snowfall reports for Tuesday, February 2, 2016 ranged from 4 to 12 inches in many areas, including the Twin Cities Metro Area. One report from Golden Valley was 13.2 inches. For some communities, the storm delivered a new record amount of snow for the date. Some of these amounts included;

10.2" at Jordan 10.3" at Chanhassen and University of Minnesota St Paul Campus 9.9" at Gaylord 9.7" at Chaska 8.8" at MSP Airport 8.5" at Grand Meadow 7.0" at Winnebago and Austin 6.8" at Preston 6.3" at Redwood Falls 6.0" at Red Wing Dam 5.0" at Owatonna 4.9" at Blue Earth 4.2" at Sioux Falls, SD

More information on the Groundhog's Day snow storm can be found at the DNR -State Climatology Office web site. With the more abundant snow cover, many citizens returned to cross country skiing, and other outdoor activities this week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri To commemorate Groundhog's Day this week NOAA media relations posted an interesting analysis of how accurate the groundhog has been in forecasting the balance of winter. Actually the track record is not too good, about 40 percent.

From Brad Rippey at the USDA in his weekly USA drought briefing: Since mid-October 2015, stormy weather in many parts of the country in part driven by a strong El Niño has significantly reduced U.S. drought coverage from 34.78 to 15.48%a drop of 19.30 percentage points. Where drought remains, mostly in the Far West, there has been incremental improvement. Although long-term concerns still include below-average reservoir storage, groundwater shortages, and tree mortality, winter precipitation has boosted spring and summer runoff prospects; improved rangeland and pasture conditions; cut irrigation demands; and reduced the need for supplemental feeding of livestock. California’s intrastate reservoirs held just 54% of their normal water volume on December 31, and that number may not appreciably improve until high-elevation snow begins to melt in the spring.

The United Kingdom Met Office issued a global temperature forecast for the next five years. Based on model projections the upward trend in global temperatures is expected to continue and likely surpass the warmest year of 2015. They note that areas of the North Atlantic Ocean and portions of the Southern Ocean may continue to show a cool signature.

A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters suggests that a slowing down of the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean Basin will lead to a positive trend in ice cover over the North Atlantic during the winter season. This trend runs counter to the overall loss of ice across the Arctic Ocean.

The BBC Weather Centre featured a review of the very high nacreous clouds that have occurred recently over the United Kingdom. They are more often confined to the high latitudes, but this week they have dipped further south. These cloud forms occur in the stratosphere at 70,000 feet or higher and are composed of tiny ice crystals or super- cooler microscopic water droplets.

Speaking of clouds the Weisman Art Museum at the University of Minnesota has begun a new exhibit on clouds titled "Clouds, Temporarily Visible." It runs through the third week of May. The exhibit will explore the scientific and romantic aspects of clouds and feature a presentation by author Gavin Pretor-Pinney, founder of the Cloud Appreciation Society. His presentation will be feature on February 17 at 7pm and is called "Cloud Lovers, Unite!"

Question mark in the sky over Dorset, UK (from the Cloud Appreciation Society)

MPR listener question I got over 10 inches of snowfall on Tuesday here in Jordan, MN, the most I have ever measured in February. How does this snowstorm compare to other historical snowstorms during the month of February? I would bet it ranks pretty high.

Answer Yes, in the Twin Cities Metro Area the snowstorm from Tuesday of this week ranks pretty high. At Jordan your official observer records go back to 1943 and they show only one larger February 1-day snowstorm, that of February 21, 2011 when 11.6 inches fell. Comparing to the climate history of other Twin Cities area observers also shows a high ranking for Tuesday's snow storm: Chaska ranked 1-day February snow storms: 12.5" on February 21, 2011; 10.6" on February 25, 2007; 9.7" on February 2, 2016 MSP Airport ranked 1-day February snow storms: 11.8" on February 20, 2011; 8.8" on February 22, 1913; 8.8" on February 2, 2016

Elsewhere around the state the 8.5" of snow at Grand Meadow (climate data back to 1887) on Tuesday ranked as the 6th largest February 1-day snowfall in their climate history, while at Caledonia (climate data back to 1892) the 8.9" of snow on Tuesday ranked 9th among heaviest February 1-day snowfalls.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 5th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 5th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 2005; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degrees F in 1895 and 1936: lowest daily minimum temperature is -27 degrees F in 1979; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 F in 2005; record precipitation of 0.52 inches 1908; and record snowfall of 7.5 inches also in 1908.

Average dew point for February 5th is 3 degrees F, with a maximum of 42 degrees F in 1946 and a minimum of -36 degrees F in 1979.

All-time state records for February 5th The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Lamberton (Redwood County) in 2005. The state record low temperature for this date is -54 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1895. State record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Bird Island (Renville County) in 1975; and record snowfall is 24.0 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1915.

Past Weather Features February 5, 1895 was arguably the coldest in state history with temperatures of -20F or colder encompassing nearly all areas of the state. Both Leech Lake and Pokegama reported lows of -54F. Even the daytime temperatures remained quite cold with a high of -15F at St Cloud and -16F at Park Rapids.

A major winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the state over February 5-7, 1908, especially to northern sections. Walker, Pine River, Leech Lake and Two Harbors received over a foot of snow. It was the most significant snowfall event of the month, as the rest of the month was relatively dry.

The warmest February 5th in state history occurred in 2005 when over 80 Minnesota communities reported afternoon high temperatures of 50F or greater. Seven southwestern Minnesota observers reported highs in the 60s F. Nighttime temperatures were warm too never dropping below the mid-30s F at many places.

February 4-5, 1984 brought a poorly forecasted "surprise blizzard" to parts of southern and western Minnesota. Although snowfall amounts were light, winds ranging from 50 to 80 mph produced white-out conditions in many areas of the Red River Valley and Minnesota River Valley. Over 350 motorists were stranded and confined to their vehicles as wind chill conditions fell to -50F. Sixteen people died in this storm.

Outlook Mostly cloudy weekend with warmer than normal temperatures. Increased chances for snow later in the day on Sunday over the weekend with a chance for snow later on Sunday. Increasing winds with blowing and drifting snow Sunday night into Monday, then cooler than normal temperatures for much of next week, with moderation in temperature towards next weekend.

February similar to January temperature pattern Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 12, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Just like January, the month of February started with warmer than normal temperatures which prevailed over most of the first week of the month. Now the mid-month period is bringing single digit and below zero F readings, colder than normal temperatures. But like January, this will be followed by warmer than normal temperatures during the second half of the month. Mid-week low temperatures around the state were sub-zero in many areas, including -25 to -35°F at a few northern locations (including -35°F at Cotton and -32°F at Embarrass).

For January and February of 2016 so far the frequency of sub-zero F temperatures is less than average. Here are the average number of sub-zero nights per month for selected Minnesota climate stations with the number of nights measured so far in 2016 (through February 12) shown in parentheses......

January: Duluth 11 (1); International Falls 16 (14); Embarrass 18 (12); Saint Cloud 14 (9); MSP Airport 11 (9); Rochester 10 (9) February 1-12: Duluth 11 (6); International Falls 12 (5); Embarrass 15 (5); Saint Cloud 10 (2); MSP Airport 7 (0); Rochester 6 (2)

Recall just two winters ago these cities had the following number of sub-zero F nights during January and February of 2014: Duluth 42; International Falls 45; Embarrass 51; Saint Cloud 41; MSP Airport 36; Rochester 37.

February 7-8 brought blizzard conditions to many parts of southwestern and south- central Minnesota, but without the heavy snowfall that the February 2-3 blizzard brought. Nevertheless, despite the lighter snowfall amounts some schools and roads were closed in southwestern counties. Over the first 12 days of the month many observers have reported from 4 to 12 inches of snowfall, on course to post a snowier than normal month. Over the past 10 years February has brought above normal snowfall seven times to most observers around the state, so this year may be following that trend.

Modest soil frost depths This winter season started late and has mostly brought above normal temperatures, despite the cool trend of this week. In addition, much of central and western Minnesota has recorded snow cover of at least a few inches. As a result, soil frost depths are not as deep as normal for this time of year. Sampling frost depths from around the state this week shows 12 inches at Waseca and Morris; 8 inches at Lamberton and St Paul, and just 6 inches at Pipestone. Normally this time of year would bring frost depths ranging from 25 to 35 inches. Given the current situation frost may leave the soil earlier than normal in the spring this year.

Weekly Weather Potpourri With a nod to this weekend's Valentine's Day, NOAA issued an interesting article on climate and chocolate on their climate.gov web site this week. The premise for this article is that growing regions around the world are likely to shift around due to climate change, and this could have an impact on the quantity and quality of the cocoa bean used to make chocolate.

Also this week the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center announced new online tools to examine their climate outlook maps and products. These new tools offer better quality maps and allow for easier access to different time periods ranging from 3-7 days out to as far 12 months ahead.

Earlier this week came a new study about how climate change might affect trans- Atlantic flight travel. This study by Paul D. Williams was released in Environmental Research Letters. Based on climate model projections there will be an increase in the mean wind speeds in the polar jet stream, that blows west to east aloft over the North Atlantic Ocean. Using an expected increase in mean wind speed of about 15 percent, this will shorten the typical air travel time between New York and London to 5 hours and 20 minutes. Conversely it will increase the travel time between London and New York to about 7 hours. More details appear at the Science Daily web site.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), there were three tropical cyclones in the southern oceans this week, but only one was expected to gain significant strength. Tropical Cyclone Winston is expected to produce wind speeds up to 140 mph this weekend and wave heights over 40 feet. It is tracking west of the Polynesian kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean and may bring heavy rains and high seas there early next week.

MPR listener question Last week I read your remarks about the coldest ever temperature in Minnesota, -60°F at Tower on Groundhog's Day (Feb 2) of 1996. My wife and I were wondering what was the high temperature that day, and was that a record as well?

Answer The high temperature at Tower on February 2, 1996 was -16F which is also the record coldest maximum temperature for February 2nd at that location. The statewide record coldest maximum temperature was also set that date at Hallock (Kittson County), Minnesota with an afternoon high of -31F (after a morning low of -46F). This was one of the coldest maximum temperatures ever measured in state history, the coldest being - 39F at Roseau on February 8, 1899 (after a morning low of -45F). February 9, 1899 was actually the coldest day in Minnesota history with an average temperature at Detroit

Lakes of -43.5F (low of -53 and high of -32F).

Twin Cities Almanac for February 12th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 12th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1905 and 1936: lowest daily minimum temperature is -30 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 34°F in 1908, 1928, and 1984; record precipitation of 0.42 inches 1984; and record snowfall of 3.2 inches in 1940 and 1965.

Average dew point for February 12th is 11 degrees F, with a maximum of 37 degrees F in 1984 and a minimum of -28 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for February 12th The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Windom (Cottonwood County) in 2005. The state record low temperature for this date is -50 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1914. State record precipitation for this date is 1.86 inches at Brainerd (Crow Wing County) in 1922; and record snowfall is 17.0 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1965 and at Orwell Dam (Otter Tail County) in 2013.

Past Weather Features Arctic high pressure produced the coldest ever February 12th in 1914. At least 17 Minnesota climate stations reported a morning low of -40°F or colder. Snow cover ranged from 8 to 20 inches for mid-February of that year, and it was one of the coldest months of February in state history.

February 9-12, 1965 brought heavy snows to Minnesota with many observers reporting from 10 to 20 inches of snow. Some schools in central and southern Minnesota counties were closed as a result of the heavy snows.

A mid-February rainstorm came to the state over the 11th and 12th in 1984, bringing amounts ranging from a half inch to one inch of rain. A few southern Minnesota observers reported hearing a little thunder as well.

The warmest February 12th in state history occurred in 1990, enhanced by the relative absence of snow cover across southern portions of the state. Most observers in central and southern Minnesota saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 50s F, while 10 cities reported a high temperature of 60°F or higher.

February 10-12, 2013 brought blizzard conditions and heavy snows to parts of western Minnesota. Rothsay (Wilkin County) reported 21 inches of snow, and for a time portions of I94, Hwy 10, and Hwy 210 were closed because of poor visibility from blowing and drifting snow.

Outlook Very cold to start the weekend, then increasing cloudiness late on Saturday with an increasing chance for snow. Snow and blowing snow on Sunday, but with warming temperatures. Lingering snow in the northeast counties on Monday morning with a warming trend starting on a statewide basis. Chance for snow again Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a stronger warming trend over Thursday through Saturday next week, as temperatures rise to above normal levels.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 19, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal outlooks on Thursday of this week (Feb 18). The ensemble forecast of monthly anomalies favors a warmer than normal spring for Minnesota, March through May. The confidence or probability for this forecast is close to 70 percent. An early spring seems relatively assured. The outlook for precipitation anomalies over March through May is less certain for Minnesota with equal chances of above or below normal values for much of the state, and slightly favoring drier than normal conditions this spring in northern counties.

Cold Valentine's Day Many northern Minnesota observers reported sub-zero temperatures last Sunday on Valentine's Day (Feb 14). Embarrass, Minnesota reported a second consecutive morning low of -36°F tying Cotton, MN (January 12, 2016) for the coldest reading in the state this winter. Tower and Orr both reported -31°F on Valentine's Day, while Gunflint lake reported -27°F.

Minnesota has reported the coldest temperatures in the nation on four dates so far this month. These include -33°F at Cotton on February 10th, -35°F at Cotton on February 11th, a-36°F at Embarrass on February 13th, and -28°F at Embarrass on February 17th. The reading of -36°F at Embarrass on Valentine's Day was not the coldest in the nation, that distinction belonged to Mt Washington, New Hampshire with a reading of -40°F.

A salute to the MPR weather staff Recently Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) announced its full complement of meteorologists to help in covering the weather on their region-wide broadcast network. I was not the only one impressed by this. Paul Huttner is now teamed with Bill Endersen, Rob Koch, and Ron Trenda to cover weather for MPR and this represents well over 115 years of meteorological experience, mostly in Minnesota's environment. No other news organizations can boast this much experience. For this MPR should be proud! We are well served when it comes to covering the weather, especially when significant or threatening conditions present themselves.

Weekly Weather potpourri The United Kingdom Met Office has signed a contract to provide weather forecasts for the safe construction of two German built wind farms in the North Sea. One proposed wind farm will consist of 54 turbines and produce 332MW of power, while the other will consist of 67 turbines and produce 402MW of power. These wind farms are supposed to be completed in the spring of 2017 and will be some of the biggest in the world.

The Southern Hemisphere oceans are hosting two strong tropical cyclones (TC) this week. Long lived and very large (over 40 mile radius of hurricane force winds) TC Winston is spinning in the Southern Pacific Ocean south of Pago Pago and east of Fiji. It was generating waves over 40 feet high and winds over 140 mph. TC Winston was expected to bring heavy rains and high seas to portions of Fiji this weekend. TC Uriah was spinning in the Southern Indian Ocean far from any islands. It was producing sea waves of 20-30 feet and winds up to 90 mph. Uriah was expected to dissipate by Sunday without any consequence to inhabited islands.

NOAA issued an update on global January 2016 temperature anomalies this week, "The planet has been on a hot streak recently. NOAAs National Centers for Environmental Information reported earlier today that January 2016 became the ninth month in a row to set a new record-warmest monthly temperature." They also note that the global mean January temperature has not been cooler than normal since 1976.

The National Stormwater Calculator is now available for use online. It is a tool to assess the annual amount of rainwater and frequency of runoff from specific locations anywhere in the USA. It also includes a feature to explore the impacts of climate change. This tool is designed to be used by anyone interested in reducing runoff from a property, including site developers, landscape architects, urban planners, and homeowners.

Researchers with the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NOAA-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued results of study earlier this month that reveals why the desert southwest of the USA is drifting toward a drier and drier climate. Some areas of Arizona have seen 21 consecutive years of drought. There are subtle shifts in climate features that are leading to less annual rainfall there. With continued climate change this shift is likely to be permanent. You can read more about this at the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question We've had only one -20°F temperature reading in the Twin Cities since 2010. It seems like back in the day, we'd get a -20°F reading at least once during a winter more often than not. How long has it been historically since we've had a stretch like this in which the temperature so consistently refuses to get to -20°F?

Answer The last occurrence of such temperature values at MSP Airport was just before midnight on January 5, 2014 when the thermometer touched -20°F and then at 530 am the next day on January 6, 2014 when the thermometer touched -23°F. The previous last -20°F readings were January 16, 2009 (-22°F), 1814 days earlier. This was not the longest stretch between temperatures of -20°F or colder in the MSP climate record. There are two longer stretches: January 10, 1999 to January 29, 2004, 1846 days: and December 12, 1955 to January 23, 1961, 1862 days.

For contrast the winters of 1960-1961 through 1974-1975, sixteen consecutive winters, delivered low temperatures of -20°F or colder to the Twin Cities. Conversely Since the winter of 1999-2000 only 3 winters have brought such temperatures to the Twin Cities (2003-2004, 2008-2009, and 2013-2014). This is strong evidence for the disappearance of tradition winter in our Twin Cities climate.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 19th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 14 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 19th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 57 degrees F in 1981; lowest daily maximum temperature of -3 degrees F in 1929: lowest daily minimum temperature is -20 degrees F in 1929 and 1941; highest daily minimum temperature of 40°F in 1930; record precipitation of 0.72 inches 1952; and record snowfall of 8.3 inches also in 1952.

Average dew point for February 19th is 12 degrees F, with a maximum of 46 degrees F in 1930 and a minimum of -31 degrees F in 1941.

All-time state records for February 19th The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1981. The state record low temperature for this date is -52 degrees F at

Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1966. State record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1984; and record snowfall is 23.0 inches at Luverne (Rock County) in 1962.

Past Weather Features A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall to many parts of the state over February 17-20, 1952. Many observers in western and central Minnesota reported over 20 inches of snowfall. Marshall reported over 30 inches. Many schools were closed, and some central Minnesota highways were closed for a time. Seven deaths were blamed on the storm.

Arctic Cold gripped the state over February 16-23, 1966, bringing sub-zero temperature readings to almost every corner of Minnesota. The "warmest" spot in the state was Fairmont with a reading of -10F. Record-setting cold temperatures were common on February 19th with over 40 communities reporting morning lows of -30F or colder. The daytime high at Argyle in the Red River Valley was -18F. Snow depths ranged from 3 inches along the Iowa border to over 3 feet at Bigfork (Itasca County).

February 19, 1979 was one of the few dates in history that Lake Superior was completely ice covered. The winter of 1978-1979 was one of the harshest in history for the Great Lakes Region.

A 5-day spell of record-setting warm weather prevailed across Minnesota over February 16-20, 1981. Temperatures reached the 50s F as far north as Baudette and Gunflint Lake, while the 60s F were common in western and southern Minnesota communities. February 19th that year was by far the warmest in state history with over 90 weather observers reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 50s F under brought sunny skies. In southwestern Minnesota farmers were seen planting small grains.

A strong winter storm brought a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to south- central and southwestern Minnesota counties over February 18-19, 1984. Many observers reported from 5 to 12 inches of snowfall. Luverne (Rock County) reported 13 inches of snow. Winds from 30-40 mph blew the snow into 10-to-15-foot drifts closing many roads for a time. The thick coating of ice on power lines caused widespread power outages.

Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures will prevail this weekend, with increasing chances for some rain or snow showers late Saturday and into Sunday. Moderating temperatures next week, but mostly warmer than normal, and generally a dry week ahead.

Preliminary climate summary for February 2016 Minnesota WeatherTalk, February 26, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Following the strong trend of the past several months and enhanced by a string of unusually warm days to end the month, February of 2016 will likely finish as a warmer than normal month for most places in the state. Mean monthly temperatures will range from 3 to 6 degrees F above normal around the state. Extreme values include high temperatures in the 50s F on February 19th and February 27th (this Sat) at such locations as Redwood Falls, Marshall, Browns Valley, Wheaton, MSP, and other communities; and minimum temperatures of -36°F at Embarrass and -35°F at Cotton on February 14th (Valentine's Day). Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation on only six dates during the month, fewer than the 9 dates in January with the nation's lowest reading.

Most observers around the state are reporting a wetter than normal February, with over 35 communities receiving an inch or more of precipitation. The precipitation for the month came as a mixture of rain and snow. Two early month blizzards brought above normal snowfall to southwestern Minnesota communities like Lake Wilson (16.7"), Lakefield (15.9"), Fairmont (14.7"), and St James (14.5"); while some northern Minnesota climate stations also reported relatively large monthly snowfall amounts such as 24" at Isabella and 20.7" at Ely. St James reported a new daily snowfall record from a blizzard on February 3rd with a measurement of 12 inches.

The other unusual climate feature of February was the high frequency of cloudy days. Well over a third of the days were cloudy and many locations reported only 4 or 5 sunny days. The rest were mixtures of mostly or partly cloudy days.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Winston, one of the strongest storms ever measured in the Southern Hemisphere with sustained winds up to 185 mph, brought devastation to Fiji in the South Pacific Ocean over February 19-20. Damage estimates and final death toll are yet to be determined from this storm. Australia and New Zealand governments were leading a recovery effort there, but most of the 900,000 residents of the islands were without power for an extended period of time.

The Science Education Resource Center (SERC) at Carleton College released a new Teaching Resource Curriculum this week on Arctic Climate. It is written in three parts and the first release is called "Exploring the Arctic" and available online for earth science teachers to review from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) in Boulder, CO.

Over 55 tornadoes were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday this week (Feb 23-24) across the southeastern states and mid-Atlantic states. Some of the most disruptive and destructive occurred in Virginia and North Carolina, where clean up and recovery are ongoing. At least 8 deaths were attributed to the storms and hundreds of homes were damaged.

The Lightbox Gallery in Surrey, England is currently featuring the paintings of John Constable a famous early 19th Century English artist known for his landscapes and his depictions of clouds. His manner of expressing cloud forms is illustrative of a deeper understanding of the physics of clouds and this is explained in the exhibit. You can see an example of his painting online at the Lightbox web site.

Speaking of England, the United Kingdom Met Office through a press release this week documented what an unusual warm and wet winter it has been across that country. It ranks very high in the climate records dating all the way back to 1659!

MPR listener question Please settle a debate I am having with my neighbor in Cottage Grove. He insists that we have seen a 70°F temperature in the month of February here in the Twin Cities, but I am relatively certain that it has never been that warm. Who is correct?

Answer The warmest official maximum temperature ever measured in the Twin Cities record is 64°F which occurred on February 26, 1896. There have only been 4 dates in February that have brought a temperature reading as high as 60°F to the Twin Cities: Feb 15, 1921 (63°F); Feb 16, 1981 (60°F); Feb 26, 1896 (64°F); and Feb 29, 2000 (61°F). On a statewide basis two February dates have brought 70°F or higher: Feb 23, 2000 when it was 70F at Lake Wilson (Murray County); and Feb 26, 1896 when it reached 73°F at Pleasant Mound (Blue Earth County) and 70°F at Le Sueur (Le Sueur County). All of these temperatures occurred without any snow cover.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 26th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 17 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 26th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 1896; lowest daily maximum temperature of -2 degrees F in 1919: lowest daily minimum temperature is -21 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 41°F in 1998; record precipitation of 0.83 inches 1873; and record snowfall of 7.0 inches also in 1936.

Average dew point for February 26th is 15 degrees F, with a maximum of 46 degrees F in 2000 and a minimum of -22 degrees F in 1950.

All-time state records for February 26th The state record high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F at Pleasant Mound (Blue Earth County) in 1896. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1897. State record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Wannaska (Roseau County) in 1964; and record snowfall is 15.0 inches at Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County) in 2001.

Past Weather Features February 26, 1896 was by far the warmest in state history. Under bright, sunny skies most areas of the state reached 50 degrees F or higher, with over 20 climate stations reporting 60 degrees F or higher. It was short-lived and followed by a colder than normal month of March.

The very next year, 1897 brought the coldest February 26th in state history. Abundant snow cover (20" to 30") coupled with an Arctic high pressure system plummeted Minnesota temperatures well below zero F. At least 16 climate stations reported morning lows of -30°F or colder. The daytime high temperature at Crookston and Roseau only reached -8F.

A slow moving winter storm brought heavy rainfall to many parts of the state over February 24-26, 1930. Several observers reported over 1.50 inches of rain, while Minneapolis, Cass Lake, and Redby reported over 2.00 inches.

On February 26, 1939 Cook County was reporting record snow depths. At Pigeon River Bridge snow was measured at 64 inches, while at Sawbill Camp snow was measured at 53 inches. Obviously, snowshoes were a requirement to get around in such snow depths.

One of the snowiest weeks in modern times was over February 22-26, 2001 when many climate stations across the state reported snowfall totals of 10-15 inches. In northeastern Minnesota Grand Marais, Lutsen, Two Harbors, and Wolf Ridge reported over 20 inches of new snowfall that week with snow depths over 40 inches, great for skiing.

Outlook Record-setting or near record-setting high temperatures under sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s F, possibly even near 60°F in some southern locations. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night and Sunday with chances increasing for rain and snow. Falling temperatures on Monday and Tuesday to near normal or cooler than normal values. Then moderating temperatures for much of next week with a generally dry pattern.

Comments on meteorological winter Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 04, 2016 By Mark Seeley

We just concluded meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in Minnesota and a few comments on the prevalent weather patterns are in order. Enhanced by the warmest December in history the meteorological winter finished as the 6th warmest of all-time in Minnesota dating back to 1895. The average temperature for the three months was about 13°F warmer than normal. Only 1930-1931, 1986-1987, 1997-1998, 2001-2002, and 2011- 2012 were warmer. Extremes for the winter season ranged from 65°F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) on February 27th to -36°F at Cotton and Embarrass (both in St Louis County) during the month of February. The warmth this winter was due mostly to unusually warm nights rather than unusually warm days.

Total precipitation for meteorological winter ranked as the 13th wettest in state history. Many places reported over 4 inches of precipitation, much of it coming as rain rather than snow. Except for the north shore areas and some portions of southwestern Minnesota, most observers reported less than average snowfall. A few places along the north shore of Lake Superior reported over 50 inches.

Another unusual feature of meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) was the lack of sunshine. According to Dave Ruschy who keeps the solar radiation records from the St Paul Campus Climatological Observatory, this winter had the 2nd lowest amount of sunshine of all winters since the winter of 1962-1963. Only the winter of 1997-1998 had less sunshine or solar energy. Many citizens have remarked that although the winter was mild, it was mostly gloomy! Here is the chart for solar average daily solar radiation for the winter months (Dec-Feb) on the St Paul Campus from 1962 to 2016.

Snowy and cold start to March for some A fast-moving snowstorm brought a few inches of snow to many southern Minnesota counties on Monday night and into Tuesday morning (Feb 29th-Mar 1st). Several climate stations reported from 1 to 3 inches of new snow, and for some a daily record amount occurred including: 4.5" at Sioux Falls, SD; 3.2" at Lakefield; 5.0" at Luverne; and 4.0" at Pipestone. A cold air mass ushered in subzero temperatures in many northern Minnesota communities for March 1st. Though not record-setting some of the coldest readings on March 1st included -17°F at International Falls, -18°F at Kabetogama, -19°F at Tower and Cotton, and -20°F at Crane Lake. The Crane Lake reading was the coldest temperature in the nation for March 1st, a distinction Minnesota has not been recognized for in recent years during March. In addition some northern communities reported daytime high temperatures that only made it to the single digits above zero F on March 1st.

The cold start to March will give way to a period of warmer than normal temperatures starting this weekend and lasting well past mid-March. So much of the state's snow cover and soil frost will be lost by the third week of the month.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A recent paper from NASA scientists published in Journal of Geophysical Research offers an analysis of the long-lived Eastern Mediterranean drought which has worsened in recent years. Their analysis shows that it may be the worst drought in that geographic region in over 900 years. This drought continues to affect portions of Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey.

The United Kingdom Met Office announced this week that the winter of 2015-2015 (Dec-Feb) was the warmest of record dating back to 1910 for England and Wales. Some of the text from their press release includes: "The latest end of month statistics show it was provisionally the warmest winter for England and Wales since the record series began in 1910, while it was the third-warmest for the UK as a whole. The warmth has been most notable in the south of the UK with mean temperatures across much of the area more than 2°C above average...... In the Central England Temperature record series, the longest temperature record in the world dating back to 1659, this winter has been the second-warmest at 6.7C, just behind the previous record of 6.8C set 1869."

Climate.gov this week featured a reference to a new tool used for climate adaptation planning. It is called AdaptWest and provides a spatial database to help plan for resilience strategies relative to a changing climate and also promotes conservation practices relative the natural resources.

MPR listener question I have read your book which includes accounts of some remarkable March blizzards. Are the maximum snow depths of winter historically associated with the month of March as well?

Answer Yes, to a degree you are correct. Examining the maximum snow depth values for all winters in Minnesota, 43 percent of them have occurred in the month of March; 32 percent have occurred in February; and 19 percent have occurred in January. The other 6 percent of historical maximum snow depth values have occurred in December or April. This pattern is not likely to prevail this year, as most of our climate stations in Minnesota have reported maximum snow depths in February so far and already lost a good deal of snow cover to periodic warm days.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 4th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 35 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 20 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 4th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1983 and 2000; lowest daily maximum temperature of 8 degrees F in 1917: lowest daily minimum temperature is -22 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 50°F in 1894; record precipitation of 0.80 inches 1984; and record snowfall of 9.6 inches also in 1984.

Average dew point for March 4th is 16 degrees F, with a maximum of 53 degrees F in 1983 and a minimum of -17 degrees F in 1978.

All-time state records for March 4th The state record high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F at Currie (Murray County) in 1905 and at Luverne (Rock County) in 2000. The state record low temperature for this date is -43 degrees F at Bagley (Clearwater County) in 1917. State record precipitation for this date is 3.54 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1966; and record snowfall is 26.0 inches also at Isabella in 1966.

Past Weather Features By far the coldest March 4th in state history was in 1917. With abundant snow on the ground an Arctic air mass brought record-setting low temperatures to all parts of the state. At least 24 climate stations reported morning lows of -30°F or colder. The temperature never rose above 0F that day at Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County).

Fifty years ago this week, over March 2-5, 1966 one of the worst blizzards of the 20th

Century struck the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota, dropping record-setting amounts of snow and shutting down schools and businesses for days. Itasca State Park, Park Rapids, and Isabella reported over 30 inches of snowfall, and at least 22 other communities reported over 20 inches. Snow drifts up to 30 feet high were observed in some areas of the Red River Valley, where snowmobiles were used to rescue drivers from abandoned vehicles on the highways. Snow depths in northeastern Minnesota exceeded 50 inches. The Duluth Office of the National Weather Service has posted a good retrospective of this storm.

Yet another strong blizzard which brought winds ranging from 40 to over 70 mph struck Minnesota over March 3-4, 1985. Many areas of the state received over a foot of snow, while some observers reported over 20 inches including Morris, Two Harbors, Olivia, Wadena, Brainerd, Hastings, Cloquet, and Moose Lake. Schools and businesses were closed, as were several highways and interstates. Because of huge snow drifts residents of Park Point in Duluth could not cross the Lift Bridge until March 7th.

March 4, 2000 was the warmest in state history as over 60 communities reported afternoon high temperatures of 60F or greater. The temperature hit 70F at Luverne (Rock County) tying an all-time state record. The abnormal warm spell last until the 8th, then the other shoe dropped with a snowstorm over March 8-9 that left a few inches of snow and dropped temperatures by 30-40 degrees F.

Outlook Partly cloudy with warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend. Even warmer early next week, then a chance for showers later on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Continued warmer than normal temperatures through the balance of next week.

Record Warmth on March 8th Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 11, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Sunshine and strong south winds (gusting to over 30 mph) brought record warmth to many parts of the state on March 8th, just ahead of the passage of a cold front. The warmth was short-lived, lasting just 2-3 hours in many areas before the cold front swept through and dropped temperatures by 30 or more degrees F. Nevertheless record- setting new daily high temperatures were recorded at a number of locations including:

72°F at Forest Lake 71°F at St Paul Airport (Holman Field) 70°F at MSP Airport, Zumbrota, Rosemount, and Minnesota City 69°F at La Crescent, Jordan, Hastings, Chaska, and Austin 68°F at Mora, Moose Lake, Rochester, Milaca, Elk River, Preston, and Sandstone 67°F at Cambridge 66°F at St Cloud and Redwood Falls 65°F at Tracy, Brainerd, and Isle

After a cold start, warmth has taken over as the theme for this month of March in Minnesota. Many climate stations are now reporting mean temperatures for the month so far that are from 8 to 11 degrees F above normal. More complete details can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA'sclimate.gov web site this week featured the meteorology behind the "big wave surfing event known as The Eddie" which took place in Hawaii earlier. It is interesting to note that certain wind conditions must prevail in the North Pacific Ocean for the waves at Waimea Bay to become large enough to host the competition among the world's best surfers.

The National Academies Press came out with a new report this week titled “The Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change.” This report provides an analysis of extreme weather events and the degree to which they are related to climate change.

A recent study published in the journal Climate Change examined the attitudes of minority populations relative to climate change and its importance. One of their conclusions: "Non-whites care as much, or more, about the environment as do whites, and oftentimes are more directly affected by the negative effects of climate change but are underrepresented among those addressing the issue." In addition, they concluded that "Non-whites were also less likely to consider themselves "environmentalists," even though their climate opinions largely matched those of whites." More details on the Science Daily web site. Daylight Savings Time is coming up this weekend. Don't forget to set your clocks ahead one hour before going to bed on Saturday night. Then start enjoying the longer natural light of evenings after work which will begin next week, adding several minutes of sunlight each day.

For St Patrick's Day next week (March 17th) remember that it is historically the windiest celebration day on the Minnesota annual calendar. Wind speeds average about 12 mph, but gusts have occurred with some frequency over 30 mph. This year it appears that temperatures will be in the 30s and low 40s F (a few degrees cooler than normal) with a chance for a mixture of precipitation, rain and snow early in the day and breezy conditions as northwest winds will blow 15-20 mph.

MPR listener question Last week under cloudy skies we had a couple of days where the range in temperature was only 6 or 7 degrees F. Has there ever been a calendar day in the Twin Cities when the temperature didn't vary, and if not, what is the least variation that has been recorded?

Answer Examining the daily climate records for the Twin Cities back to 1872 I can find no date when the temperature did not vary over the course of the day. There are only 5 dates in the Twin Cities climate records which show a variation of just 1°F. Those dates are: December 14, 1974: High 33°F and Low 32°F December 15, 1974: High 34°F and Low 33°F December 7, 1987: High 34°F and Low 33°F January 16, 1998: High 23°F and Low 22°F December 22, 2006: High 34°F and Low 33°F

In all of these cases light snow and low overcast persisted all day, except for December 7, 1987 when it was foggy all day long.

MPR listener question I am hoping to bike the Mississippi River Trail this summer...... and wondering about prevailing winds during the summer season. Would it make sense to start my ride in the South or the North?

Answer I assume that you want to avoid head winds while you bike. In that regard the prevailing wind direction for most places along the Mississippi River in summer is from the south. So, most of the time you will have the wind at your back if you are biking north. On occasion strong northwest winds can prevail, but not as frequently as the southerly winds. Good luck on your adventure.

MPR Listener Question from Perham, MN Is climate change affecting March as the third 'snowiest' month of the year?

Answer Using a 115-year climate record from Detroit Lakes (Becker County), just up the road from Perham is revealing with respect to seasonal snowfall distribution. In the first 75 years of climate records at Detroit Lakes March was the snowiest month of the snow season over a third of all years. But since the winter of 1965-1966 it has been the snowiest month of the season only three years (1985, 1996, and 2002). Further much more of March precipitation has fallen as rain rather than snow in recent decades. Since the new millennium, March has on average been the 3rd snowiest month of the snow season trailing December and January, at least in the Detroit Lakes area.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 11th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 22 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 11th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 66 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 6 degrees F in 1906: lowest daily minimum temperature is -27 degrees F in 1948; highest daily minimum temperature of 46 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 1.30 inches 1990; and record snowfall of 8.2 inches in 1962.

Average dew point for March 11th is 20 degrees F, with a maximum of 50 degrees F in 1990 and a minimum of -34 degrees F in 1948.

All-time state records for March 11th The state record high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F at St James (Watonwan County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -41 degrees F at Moose Lake (Carlton County) in 1948. State record precipitation for this date is 3.00 inches at Waseca (Waseca County) in 1918; and record snowfall is 16.0 inches at New London (Kandiyohi County) in 1897.

Past Weather Features March 10, 1878 marked the earliest ice-out date in history for Lake Minnetonka. The DNR-State Climatology Office suggests that many area lakes may lose their ice over the next week, perhaps earliest ever for some.

March 11-15, 1897 brought back to back winter storms to the state, with a mixture of rain and snow. Many central and northern Minnesota communities reported 8 to 16 inches of snowfall, while Grand Portage along the North Shore of Lake Superior reported 25 inches.

March 11, 1948 was the coldest in state history. With abundant snow cover still on the ground, morning temperatures plummeted to -30°F or colder in over 40 communities and as far south as Zumbrota. Temperatures rebounded into the 30s and 40s F by March 14th.

March 10-11, 1956 brought widespread snow to many parts of central and southern Minnesota. Winona and Worthington reported over 15 inches.

By far the warmest March 11th in state history occurred in 2012. Temperatures soared into the 60s F as far north as Roseau, and over 100 daily record high temperatures were set or tied across Minnesota observation network. The warmth continued as March of 2012 was the warmest in state history.

Outlook Very warm on Saturday under mostly sunny skies. Increasing cloudiness on Saturday night with a chance for rain. Continuing chance for rain on Sunday and into early Monday. Chance for rain and snow mix late on Wednesday and into early Thursday with much cooler temperatures.

First warm, then wet Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 18, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Last weekend produced some record-setting March high temperatures. Some of those reported over March 12 and 13 included: 74°F at Madison 73°F at Milan, Marshall, and Pipestone 72°F at Wheaton and Browns Valley 71°F at Montevideo 70°F at MSP, Willmar, Mora, Redwood Falls, and Lake Wilson 69°F at Winnebago and New Ulm 68°F at Windom, Lakefield, St Cloud, and Morris 67°F at Ada, Kimball, and Moose Lake 66°F at Moorhead and Isle 65°F at Austin and Preston 60°F at Duluth and International Falls

So far this month over 60 new daily warm maximum temperature records have been reported across Minnesota, and over 60 new warm daily minimum temperature records have been reported as well. Communities around the state are reporting average March temperatures so far that run from 11 to 15 degrees F above normal. This has provoked very early ice-out dates for many of Minnesota’s lakes, including Lake Minnetonka (Hennepin and Carver Counties), which saw loss of ice on March 17th, the earliest date since March 11, 1878. Other lakes that recorded earliest ice-out dates in history included: White Bear (Washington County) on March 16th; Cedar Lake (Scott County) on March 13th; and French Lake (Rice County) on March 15th.

The warmth slowed down by mid-week, but some heavy precipitation occurred over March 15-16, falling mostly as rain, but some significant snowfall was reported in northeastern Minnesota. Several observers reported from 0.75 inches to 1.50 inches of precipitation. Some amounts were daily records:

On March 15: MSP 0.85" tied record value from 1945 Ear Claire, WI 1.55" new record Hibbing 1.09"

On March 16:

Pokegama Dam 0.93" Cotton 1.70" Kabetogama 1.23" Eveleth 1.67" Floodwood 2.32" Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center 2.15" Wright 1.73" Isle 1.42" Mora 1.25" La Crescent 1.50" Minnesota City 1.90" Theilman 1.12" Zumbrota 1.10" Wabasha 1.36" Winona Dam 2.16"

In addition, on Wednesday, March 17, heavy snow across northeastern portions of the state caused school closures and difficult travel conditions. Many observers reported from 2 to 5 inches of snow. Some of the heaviest amounts, most of which were new daily records, included: 12.0" at Isabella; 11.0" at Grand Portage; 10.5" near Two Harbors; 9.5" at Gunflint Lake; 8.9" at Tofte; 8.6" at Ely; 7.4" at Winton; 7.2' at International Falls; 6.7" at Silver Bay; 6.0" at Cook, Cotton, Embarrass, and Chisholm; 5.8" Tower; 5.5" at Orr, and 4.2" at Grand Rapids.

The abundant moisture this week provoked the National Weather Service to issue flood watches and advisories for portions of Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, and St Louis Counties this week.

New seasonal climate outlooks The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal climate outlooks on March 17th this week. The outlook for April through June calls for above normal temperatures to prevail across the Great Lakes Region, including Minnesota. The outlook for precipitation calls for drier than normal conditions to prevail across northeastern sections of the state. The outlook through June also shows no signs of returning drought to Minnesota.

Weekly Weather potpourri Torrential rainfalls last week brought from 17 to 26 inches of rain to portions of Louisiana, causing widespread flooding there. But Mother Nature has brought little respite this week as many areas of received another 7 to 12 inches of rain. For some observers in that state March total rainfall will approach or exceed 30 inches.

NOAA reported this week that the Annual Cherry Blossom Festival in Washington, D.C. scheduled to begin on March 20th may occur after the peak blossom date (estimated to be March 18th) because of the very mild winter and early spring. This would be the earliest blooming of the cherry trees there since the spring of 1990. About a million visitors come to the Washington, D.C. area each year for this festival.

NOAA scientists reported this week that 2015 brought the largest measured annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, a rise of 3.05 parts per million. The global average now rests at slightly under 403 ppm. Prior to 1880 the global atmospheric carbon dioxide content was 280 ppm.

NOAA also reported this week on some work done at Rutgers University and reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. This study shows that sea level rise during the 20th Century was faster than the past 27 centuries. The report also states that over 50 percent of the 8,000 episodes of coastal flooding since 1950 would not have occurred in the absence of global climate change.

Tropical Cyclone Emeraude was spinning in the Southern Indian Ocean this week producing winds over 100mph and sea wave heights approaching 30 feet. It was not a threat to any island nations and was expected to weaken by the middle of next week.

MPR listener question In your book and a few years ago on MPR I heard you tell Cathy Wurzer that March of 2012 was the most anomalous warm month in history from a temperature standpoint, being over 15 degrees F above normal here in the Twin Cities. How many daily temperature records were set that month?

Answer During March of 2012, the Twin Cities set or tied 8 daily high temperature records, topped by 80°F on St. Patrick's Day (17th). In addition, 10 new record high minimum temperature records were set along with 8 new record daily high dew point temperature readings. On a statewide basis 843 new daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken, and 658 record high minimum daily temperature records were tied or broken.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 18th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 18th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 79 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 3 degrees F in 1923: lowest daily minimum temperature is -8 degrees F in 1923; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 2012; record precipitation of 1.07 inches 1968; and record snowfall of 9.6 inches in 1951.

Average dew point for March 18th is 23 degrees F, with a maximum of 59 degrees F in 2012 and a minimum of -14 degrees F in 1923.

All-time state records for March 18th The state record high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1921. The state record low temperature for this date is -48 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1939. State record precipitation for this date is 3.12 inches at Hokah (Houston County) in 2005; and record snowfall is 20.0 inches at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1933.

Past Weather Features A late winter storm brought a mixture of rain and snow to the state over March 18-19, 1903. Thunderstorms occurred in western Minnesota. Many observers reported over 2 inches of precipitation and Collegeville reported 3.12 inches.

March 18, 1921 was the warmest in state history. For many eastern Minnesota cities afternoon temperatures rose into the 50s and 60s F, while in the west and the south observers reported highs in the 70s and 80s F. There was no snow cover on the Minnesota landscape except for far northeastern counties.

On this date (March 18) in 1925, some residents of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana probably thought the world was coming to an end. The famous Tri-State tornado was crossing those states, along a 219-mile path over a period of 3.5 hours, from 1:00 to

4:30 pm. This F-5 storm (winds near 300 mph) damaged or destroyed 19 communities and killed 695 people. The vortex varied from 1/2 mile to 1 mile in diameter. It caused the greatest loss of life of any historically documented tornado in the USA.

March 18, 1939 was the coldest in state history with 12 communities reporting a morning low temperature of -30°F or colder. Snow depths in northern Minnesota were over 2 feet.

A winter storm brought heavy snowfall to the state over March 18-19, 1951. Over 30 communities reported at least 10 inches of snow and many roads and schools were closed on Monday the 19th. This was one of several snowstorms during the month producing one of the snowiest months in state history. Over 30 climate stations reported monthly snowfall totals of 40 inches or greater.

A strong winter storm brought heavy snow to southern Minnesota counties during the Boys State Basketball Tournament of 2005. Over March 17-18 wind driven snow piled up in huge drifts and closed Interstate 90 between Blue Earth and Luverne. Portions of Faribault County reported over 20 inches of snow.

Outlook Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures under partly cloudy skies through the weekend. Warming trend next Tuesday and then moderating temperatures (below and above normal) much of next week with chances for mixed rain and snow and mostly cloudy skies.

Snowstorm for southern Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, March 25, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Portions of northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin received a significant snowfall from a late season winter storm on March 23rd this week. Across the path of the storm snowfall amounts ranged mostly from 2 to 9 inches, with some climate stations reporting over 10 inches. Some of the Minnesota reports included the following amounts, with record setting daily amounts noted by an asterisk:

4.7" at Rochester Airport 5.0" at La Crescent* and Winona 5.1" at Caledonia 6.0" at Springfield 6.1" at Eau Claire, WI* 6.8" at Gaylord 7.0" at Hastings 7.3" at Jordan and Rosemount 8.5" at Zumbro Falls 9.0" at Grand Meadow 10.0" at Owatonna* (tied record from 1966) 10.7" at New Prague 11.0" at Ellendale* 11.2" at Wabasha*

Water content of the snow ranged typically from 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches. But both Caledonia (1.29") and Hastings (1`.80") reported new daily record precipitation amounts for the date. Much of this will infiltrate the soil as it melts over the next day or two, with little or no snow cover remaining by Easter Sunday.

Sundial Rhymes Now that the sun is climbing so high in the sky and people are spending more time outside, I thought it might be a good time to reflect on the ancient practice of telling time by the sun. Sundials are perhaps one of the oldest instruments known. Many are quite ornate and used in gardens or public parks. There are several which have appropriately inscribed rhymes. Some of these include:

Serene I stand among the flowers; And only count life's sunny hours.

When the hour is bright and clear, You'll find the time recorded here.

Set me right and use me well; And I the time to you will tell.

Of shade and sunshine for each hour, See here a measure made. Then wonder not if life consists, Of sunshine and of shade.

Anyone know of others?

Easter Climatology The date of Easter Sunday has varied from March 23rd to April 25th, and we can certainly have huge differences in weather across such a range of dates. For the Twin Cities on average a March date for Easter Sunday brings highs in the 40s F and lows in the 20s F. Since the establishment of the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities in 1891, Easter Sunday has occurred in March twenty-eight times. Of those dates, nine have been wet, and seven have brought snowfall, the most 2.5 inches on March 31, 1929.

Since 1891, Easter Sunday has occurred in April 96 times. Of the April Easter Sundays, 28 have been wet, and 4 have brought snowfall. Two Easter Sundays have seen thunderstorms in the Twin Cities area, both 1941 and 1998. Average daytime highs for Easter Sunday in April are in the 50s and 60s F, with lows in the 40s.

Climate extremes for Easter Sunday include a high of 88 degrees F on April 10, 1977, a low of -2 degrees F on March 25, 1894, and a maximum total precipitation of 0.49 inches on April 13, 1941. The last dense fog on Easter was in 1993, and the worst wind chill conditions were in 1921 when readings of -20 degrees F were noted. Looking for Easter eggs was difficult in 1975 as there was still 10 inches of snow on the ground Easter Sunday, March 30th.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The same winter storm system that brought abundant snow to southern Minnesota this week also had an impact in Colorado where many observers reported between 10 and 20 inches of snowfall. The Denver area received 13 to 17 inches of snowfall, causing many delays and cancellation at the Denver International Airport.

World Meteorological Day occurred on March 23rd this week. The World Meteorological Society commemorated the occasion by releasing some recent studies of global climate trends and the United Kingdom Met Office released a study showing that the central England growing season has increased by 29 days, and 6 of the 10 longest growing seasons in the their multi-century records have occurred in the past 30 years.

NOAA this week provided a detailed analysis of the record-setting rains and flooding that have occurred this month in Louisiana. Strong and persist advection of low level moisture flowed from the Gulf of Mexico over the course of several days and fueled the persistent heavy rainfalls.

NOAA's primary Guide on Climate Literacy is now available on line in both English and Spanish. School science teachers and environmental educators should be interested in this useful resource which is presented in seven parts.

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) of Australia published an interesting article recently on mitigating greenhouse gas production from the livestock sector. There is great potential to do so if the right management systems are put into place. This paper was published in Nature Climate Change.

MPR Listener Question Earlier this winter I heard you remark about the persistence of warmer than normal temperatures over the past year in Minnesota. March too is tracking warmer than normal. How will this March rank historically and how do the past 12 months rank historically with respect to temperature? Answer Statewide temperatures so far this month would rank March as the 6th warmest in state history back to 1895. Even more remarkable is the departure in temperature for the past 12 months, going back to April of 2015. The past 12 months have been the warmest in state history, and by a considerable margin. Here are the statewide average monthly temperature departures from normal over the past 12 months: April 2015 +1.8°F May 2015 -0.8°F June 2015 +0.3°F July 2015 +0.5°F August 2015 -1.0°F September 2015 +6.1°F October 2015 +3.1°F November 2015 +7.3°F December 2015 +10.4°F January 2016 +2.7°F February 2016 +4.6°F March 2016 (through the 24th) +8.8°F

Twin Cities Almanac for March 25th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 25th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 78 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1955: lowest daily minimum temperature is -5 degrees F in 1940; highest daily minimum temperature of 56 degrees F in 2007; record precipitation of 0.51 inches 1995; and record snowfall of 3.6 inches in 1996.

Average dew point for March 25th is 24 degrees F, with a maximum of 59 degrees F in 2004 and a minimum of -12 degrees F in 1955.

All-time state records for March 25th The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -31 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1965. State record precipitation for this date is 3.31 inches at Halstad (Norman County) in 1996; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Bemidji (Beltrami County) in 1914.

Past Weather Features A winter storm brought heavy snow to northern Minnesota over March 24-25, 1914. Many observers reported 8 to 12 inches, and Bemidji received a record 14 inches, ending up with 20 inches for the month.

March 23-25, 1939 brought a taste of summer weather to many parts of Minnesota. Under sunny skies temperatures soared into the 70s and 80s F around many parts of the state. It was in the 70s F as far north as Itasca State Park and reached the 80s F in at least a dozen western and southern counties. Some farmers were seen planting small grains.

March of 1965 was snowy, wet, and cold. March 25th of that year was the coldest in state history with over 80 climate stations reporting sub-zero low temperatures and the rest reporting single digit lows. With deep snow cover Brainerd and Grand Meadow recorded daytime highs of only 15°F.

Thunderstorms prevailed across southern Minnesota over March 25-26, 1995. Many areas of the state received over an inch of rain, while communities in southwestern Minnesota like Tracy, Worthington, Luverne, Windom, and Springfield reported over 2 inches.

A blizzard struck portions of western and northern Minnesota over March 24-25, 1996.

Many observers reported 8 to 14 inches of snowfall and winds over 40 mph. Drifting snow closed portions of I94 between Moorhead and Sauk Centre, as well as portions of Highway 10 and Highway 2 in northern counties. Wind chill conditions dropped into the range of -30 to -50F.

Outlook Cloudy with cooler than normal temperatures on Saturday and chances for mixed precipitation around the state, both rain and snow. More sun on Easter Sunday with warming temperatures. Continued warming with above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness with chances for rain by Wednesday and Thursday next week, followed by cooler temperatures heading into the first weekend of April.

Preliminary climate summary for March Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 01, 2016 By Mark Seeley

March was another warm month with observers reporting mean monthly temperature values that ranged from 5 to 10 degrees F above normal. Extremes daily values for the month ranged from 74°F at Winona on the 9th and at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 12th, to a frigid -22°F at Seagull Lake (Cook County) on March 1st. Minnesota reported the nation's lowest temperature only twice during the month. On a statewide basis March of 2016 will rank 4th warmest in Minnesota history back to 1895. Further four of the top five warmest months of March in Minnesota have occurred since 2000. The warm temperature pattern removed the frost from most of the state's soils, and accelerated the ice-out dates on area lakes.

Thanks to a wet last week of the month, most observers reported a wetter than normal month of March, except for areas of the northern Red River Valley in northwestern Minnesota which were generally drier than normal. Extreme values for the month ranged from 5.78 inches at Winona Dam to less than half an inch at Browns Valley, Wheaton, Detroit Lakes, and High Landing. A number of locations received over 3 inches of precipitation for the month, and a few climate stations reported over 4 inches. Some observers reported a record wet month of March including: 5.78 inches at Winona Dam (Winona County); 4.52 inches at Minnesota City (Winona County) and Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center (Lake County); 4.20 inches at Moose Lake (Carlton County); and 4.10 inches at Cotton (St Louis County). On a statewide basis it was the 11th wettest March in history.

Monthly snowfall was highly variable around the state, ranging from 1 to 2 inches in west-central counties to 15 inches or more in southeastern and northeastern counties. Isabella in the highlands of Lake County reported the most with 21.5 inches.

Lake ice-out dates continue to be early Many lake observers continue to report earlier than normal ice-out dates around the state. In many cases lakes are losing their ice 2 to 3 weeks earlier than average. For example, Pearl Lake in Stearns County lost ice on March 15th (reported by Sue Dudding) and this is the earliest of record, while Lake George in Anoka County also lost ice cover on March 15th, a record early date. Average ice-out date on Pearl Lake occurs on April 4th and on Lake George it is April 6th. The Minnesota DNR has more details on this year's ice-out.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Forty years ago this month marked the downward slide of the Drought Index in Minnesota. March of 1976 was relatively wet in most places around the state with over 2

inches of precipitation a pretty common value. The next 9 months of 1976 were bone dry pushing the Drought Index into the Exceptional Category by the end of the growing season and producing a prolific wildfire season in northern Minnesota. For many places, and especially western Minnesota communities 1976 still represents the worst historical drought in history. Many western Minnesota communities reported less than 10 inches of precipitation for the entire year, including Morris, Glenwood, Milan, Canby, Campbell, Browns Valley, Wheaton, and Rothsay. Ortonville (Big Stone County) reported the lowest annual amount of precipitation in state history with a total of only 6.37 inches.

Researchers from the University of Oklahoma are using powerful computers to resolve forecast models at higher spatial resolutions and in doing so are finding that they can forecast hail storms more accurately. Though their research is still experimental and not operational yet if offers hope that one day the National Weather Service may be able to forecast hail more accurately.

The Alaska Climate Center reported that state had its 2nd warmest winter in history. Over the period from December of 2015 through February of 2016 statewide temperatures averaged 10.6°F warmer than normal. March has continued to be near record warmth as well.

The National Academy of Sciences released a report this week advocating for further research investment in mid and long range environmental forecasting. Improvements in such forecasts are essential to improve our management of natural resources and societal infrastructure such as public health systems and transportation systems.

MPR listener question I live in Winona, MN and we have had a very wet month of March. Half the days of the month brought precipitation, either snow or rain, and we ended up with over 5 inches. What is the state record for wettest March? Can't believe it is much greater than what we got!

Answer Though rare a number of climate stations around the state have reported over 5 inches of March precipitation at some time historically. Your record value at Winona for this March is nowhere near the statewide record value for the month which is 7.89 inches at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1942. In that year March brought a tremendous quantity of snow to Pigeon River, nearly 34 inches, but much of their monthly precipitation came as all-day rains as well.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 1st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 1st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 2015; lowest daily maximum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1896: lowest daily minimum temperature is 9 degrees F in 1975; highest daily minimum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1999; record precipitation of 0.54 inches 1967; and record snowfall of 4.2 inches in 2002.

Average dew point for April 1st is 27 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1903 and a minimum of -2 degrees F in 1975.

All-time state records for April 1st The state record high temperature for this date is 85 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1986 and at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) and Lamberton (Redwood County) in 2015. The state record low temperature for this date is -21 degrees F at Thorhult (Beltrami County) in 1975. State record precipitation for this date is 2.52 inches at Beaver Bay (Lake County) in 2009; and record snowfall is 18.0 inches at Frazee (Becker County) in 2009.

Past Weather Features March 31 to April 1, 1896 brought a strong winter storm to Minnesota. A mixture of precipitation, both rain and snow fell across the state, but a band of heavy snow was reported from Montevideo to Duluth, where many observers reported 1 to 2 feet. Saint Cloud reported a record 32 inches, pretty much shutting down all outdoor activity for several days.

The coldest April 1st in state history occurred in 1975. Snow cover was deep from a long, snowy winter. Many observers reported snow depths of 2-3 feet to start the month, and the observer at Virginia (St Louis County) reported 50 inches of snow on the ground. A cold, Canadian air mass settled over the state and brought sub-zero temperature readings to the northern half of the state. The temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) never rose above 15°F during the day.

A moisture-laden spring storm brought record-setting amounts of precipitation over March 31-April 1 of 1998. This storm system brought rain, sleet, snow, and even thunder to some parts of the state. Red Wing, Jordan, Hastings, and Madison reported over 2 inches of precipitation, while Canby and New London reported over 10 inches of snow.

The long, spring snow melt flood in the Red River Valley in the spring of 2009 was compounded by a strong storm system over March 31-April 1. This storm brought a mixture of rain and snow across the state. Rothsay, Breckenridge, and Ottertail reported over 20 inches of snowfall, while many other observers reported over an inch of liquid precipitation.

Last year (2015) brought the warmest April 1st in state history with over 40 climate observers reporting afternoon highs of 80°F or greater. Granite Falls started the morning at just 40°F but rose to a high of 84°F by midafternoon.

Outlook Cooler than normal and breezy heading into Saturday, with a chance for mixed precipitation early in the day. Much warmer on Sunday with above normal temperatures, then a decline on Monday. Moderating temperatures, either side of normal next week with chances for rain later in the week.

WeatherTalk will return April 22

Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 08, 2016 By Mark Seeley

WeatherTalk will not be published Friday, April 8, or April 15. Mark Seeley will send the next WeatherTalk on Friday, April 22.

Helpful rains arrive Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 22, 2016 By Mark Seeley

With the agricultural planting season now fully underway, some helpful rains began to occur this week following a dry start to the month of April. Up until the rains came, rapid planting progress was made, with earliest ever planting of sugar beets across the state. Also, corn was being planted at a robust rate and may be near 50 percent completed by next week. Many northwestern Minnesota observers reported 0.75 inches to over an inch of rain, while southwestern areas received from half an inch to nearly 1.5 inches of rain (Luverne reported 1.64 inches). Elsewhere amounts generally ranged from a quarter inch to a half inch of rainfall. Though most observers still reported below normal rainfall for the month so far, rainfall is expected to average above normal for the balance of the month and will add to soil moisture recharge.

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday this week (April 21). The outlook for May, June, and July calls for temperatures across the Great Lakes Region, including Minnesota to be above normal, a trend that has been prevalent for well over a year now. The outlook for precipitation calls for drier than normal conditions to prevail in northeastern Minnesota, and equal chances for above or below normal values across the rest of the state.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA announced last week that a next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-R will be launched in October of this year. It will provide enhance satellite data and observations for National Weather Service meteorologists, with better spatial and temporal resolution of measurements and broader coverage of the Western Hemisphere.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported last week on the rapid loss of ice caps on Ellesmere Island in the Arctic Region of Canada. The loss of ice has been remarkably fast in recent years and is very evident in satellite imagery.

The Washington Post reported on a study by Knox College in Illinois which was a survey of attitudes towards creepiness. Over 100 respondents were asked to rank several professional occupations in regard to creepiness. The creepiest occupations were clown, taxidermist, and sex shop owner. Those ranked as least creepy were farmer, teacher, and professor. The least creepy occupation? Meteorologist!

A recent paper published in the journal Nature documents suggests that worsening weather across the United States as a result of climate change may in the end provide the strongest motivation to do something about climate change. Areas of the country which currently experience a high percentage of pleasant weather, may see more unsuitable weather conditions prevail in the future, which will drive some changes in demographics.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala in the Southern Indian Ocean will bring high seas, strong winds, and heavy rains to the northern parts of Madagascar this weekend. It was producing sea waves near 30 feet and winds up to 105 mph on Thursday of this week. Elsewhere Tropical Cyclone Amos in the South Pacific Ocean will bring high seas, strong winds, and rain to portions of Pago Pago in American Samoa this weekend. It was already producing sea waves of 25 feet and winds up to 90 mph.

A recent paper published in EOS asked the question “Are U.S. states prepared to manage water in a changing climate?” This study of five states concludes the answer is emphatically No! Though MNRE effort has been directed in recent years to managing water resources, yet greater effort is needed according to this study.

MPR listener question Now that we have apparently put the snow season in the rear-view mirror, can you tell me which places in the state had the most snowfall for the season of 2015-2016?

Answer Most climate observers around the state reported below normal values for the past snow season. The Twin Cities for examples reported just 36.7 inches, over 17 inches below normal. The exceptions were in northeastern and southwestern Minnesota counties where many observers reported above normal snow seasons. Some of these from the northeast included: Gunflint Lake (Cook County) with 83.9 inches; Ely (St Louis County) with 84 inches, Tower (St Louis County) with 75 inches; and Isabella (Lake County) with 120.6 inches. Some from the southwest included: Lake Wilson (Murray County) with 59.7 inches; Pipestone (Pipestone County) with 59.8 inches; Worthington (Nobles County) with 54.9 inches; and Lakefield (Jackson County) with 56.5 inches. Snow cover is gone across the state except for portions of Lake and Cook Counties in the northeast.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 22nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 22nd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees F in 1980; lowest daily maximum temperature of 34 degrees F in 1967: lowest daily minimum temperature is 23 degrees F in 1874; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1913; record precipitation of 2.21 inches 2001; and record snowfall of

5.4 inches in 1963.

Average dew point for April 22nd is 35 degrees F, with a maximum of 67 degrees F in 1925 and a minimum of 10 degrees F in 1953.

All-time state records for April 22nd The state record high temperature for this date is 101 degrees F at Hawley (Clay County) in 1980. The state record low temperature for this date is 1 at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1936. State record precipitation for this date is 3.52 inches at St Cloud (Stearns County) in 2001; and record snowfall is 10.0 inches at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1902.

Past Weather Features A spring storm brought several inches of snow to northern parts of the state over April 21-22, 1902. Many observers reported 6-10 inches of snow, especially in the northern sections of the Red River Valley.

Perhaps the coldest April 22nd on a statewide basis was in 1918. Climate observers in central and northern communities reported morning lows in the teens F, while southern Minnesota reported many minimum temperatures in the 20s F. Many areas of the state still had snow on the ground that spring.

April 22-23, 1972 brought snow to many parts of Minnesota. In southern counties the snowfall ranged from 1 to 3 inches, while in northern Minnesota observers reported 5 to 10 inches. The snow brought an abrupt halt to the spring planting season that year.

By far the hottest April 22nd in state history occurred during the Heat Wave of April 20- 22, 1980. All-time high temperature records for so early in the spring were set for scores of locations around the state. More than 70 climate stations reached a high temperature of 90F or higher, while strong southerly winds blew dry soil around into dust clouds.

The wettest April 22nd in state history occurred in 2001. A strong, slow-moving spring storm covered the state over April 21-23 dropping a mixture of precipitation, rain, and snow. Many portions of western Minnesota received 5 to 10 inches of snow, while other areas recorded heavy rainfall. Most areas of the state received 2-3 inches, but there were some areas that experienced street flooding as a result of over 4 inches of rain, including Marshall with 4.68 inches and Worthington with 4.33 inches.

Outlook

The weekend should start mild and sunny with increasing cloudiness by Saturday night and a chance for rain. Continued chance for rain on Sunday and Monday, with some scattered thunderstorms possible. Generally drier and cooler on Tuesday. Continuing chances for showers by the middle of next week with cooler than normal temperatures prevailing.

Preliminary April Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, April 29, 2016 By Mark Seeley

April was a roller coaster month climate-wise, starting out cool and wet, then warm and dry in the middle, and finally finishing cool and wet again.

Most observers report average monthly temperatures that are from 1 to23 degrees F above or below normal. The cooler than normal reports came primarily from northern communities while the warmer than normal reports came from the southern counties. Extreme temperatures for the month ranged from 86 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) on the 15th to -13 degrees F at Seagull Lake (Cook County) on the 4th. A number of Minnesota climate stations reported new record high daily temperatures in the 70s F on the 4th and record high daily temperatures in the 80s F on the 14th and 15th. Conversely a number of climate stations reported new record daily low temperatures on the 3rd, 4th, and 9th of April. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation on four dates during the month.

Precipitation for April was above normal for most areas of the state. Generally, the eastern sections of the state received more precipitation than the western sections. The far northwestern counties and the far southeastern counties received the least amount of precipitation for the month. A number of observers reported over 3 inches of precipitation for the month, and a few reported over 4 inches. Nearly all of the measured snowfall occurred in the first two weeks of the month, ranging from 1 to 4 inches for most observers. Many communities in northeastern Minnesota measured over 10 inches and Gunflint Lake topped the list with 16.8 inches. Gunflint Lake also reported a new daily record snowfall of 6.5 inches on April 4th. In the northeast Isabella, Wolf Ridge, and Two Harbors reported maximum snow depths over 10 inches early in the month, while some southern counties reported no snow on the ground for any date during the month.

April lived up to its reputation for the windiest month on the Minnesota calendar with average wind speeds ranging from 12 to 15 mph and nearly half the days of the month producing peak wind gusts over 30 mph. Several observers reported days with wind gusts over 40 and 50 mph.

A brief tornado touchdown occurred in Faribault County on April 24th near Bricelyn with no reported damage.

As a result of no snow cover, absence of soil frost, and warm temperatures during mid- month Minnesota farmers accomplished earliest-ever planting of sugar beets, and a very early planting of corn, with over half of the 7 million acre crop planted by the last week of April.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week Deke Arndt from NOAA-NCEI writes about the Prairie Fire Season in the Southern Plains states. He provides a good review of climate conditions that produce relatively high fire danger there and the detection of fire scars in the landscape from satellite imagery.

Starting in mid-May NOAA researcher Cynthia Way will begin a three-month leave to join her boyfriend James Caple and row across the North Atlantic Ocean, between Cape Cod and Ireland, a journey of 3300 miles on a 24-foot boat. They will cross the ocean unsupported by a team, but with a satellite phone for communications. They hope to make the crossing in less than 60 days and will post briefings on a web blog named 1000leagues.

NOAA National Snow and Ice Data Center also reported this week that the earliest date ever for the melt season on the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet was detected over April 11-13 when temperatures soared into the 60s F in many places. The Summit Research Station on Greenland, at 10,496 feet on top of the ice sheet measured the highest ever April temperature of 20F on April 11th.

For teachers and science students Science Magazine offers several animations to show case Data Stories, and of course one of these is on the global temperature record, a feature that is nominated for the "People’s Choice Awards."

A paper published this week in Nature Climate Change correlates satellite measured amplified "greenness" (Earth's vegetation) with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization. Examining the satellite records from 1982-2015 NASA scientists are able to show the correlation in these features of Earth. They also acknowledge that other factors may be involved in this measured increase in greening.

MPR Listener Question It has been very windy this spring, and in fact it seems wind speeds have been higher across southern Minnesota in recent years. Is this a result of climate change?

Answer This question has not been comprehensively addressed by the atmospheric and climate science community yet. The few studies so far have yielded mixed results, suggesting a decline in mean wind speeds for some Midwest locations, and an increase in others. Analysis of the data over decades is difficult because the instruments used to measure wind speed by the NOAA-National Weather Service have changed over time. Fewer mechanical anemometers (spinning cups) are used and more sonic anemometers (the type that use sound wave attenuation to measure wind speed) are used today. Many projections made by climate models suggest that mean winds speeds may increase over time across the Great Lakes States, including Minnesota, but we have not yet validated this projection with real measured data. A good overview of wind measurements and trends in our region can be found from an Iowa State University publication.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 29th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 43 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 29th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees F in 1952; lowest daily maximum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1909: lowest daily minimum temperature is 22 degrees F in 1958; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1952; record precipitation of 1.30 inches in 1991; and record snowfall of 6.6 inches in 1984.

Average dew point for April 29th is 37 degrees F, with a maximum of 66 degrees F in 1970 and a minimum of 7 degrees F in 1958 .

All-time state records for April 29th The state record high temperature for this date is 93 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1910. The state record low temperature for this date is 3 degrees F at Babbitt (St Louis County County) in 1958. State record precipitation for this date is 3.25 inches at Orr (St Louis County) in 1940; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Windom (Cottonwood County) in 1956.

Past Weather Features Heavy thunderstorms brought record-setting rainfall amounts to western Minnesota over April 26-30, 1886. Farmers had to postpone planting small grains until the flood waters receded as many areas received 3 to 6 inches of rain.

Again in 1940 heavy thunderstorms brought abundant rainfall to many places over April 28-30. Several observers reported 2 to 3 inches and some small grain fields were washed out and had to be replanted.

On a statewide basis the warmest April 29th was in 1952 when dozens of communities saw record daily high temperature records set. Nearly every climate station in the state reported afternoon highs in the 80s F, while ten cities reported temperatures of 90 degrees F or higher. The temperature at Windom (Cottonwood County) never fell lower than 65 degrees F that day.

By far the coldest ever April 29th was in 1958. Nearly every climate station in the state reported record-setting cold temperatures. Many northern climate stations fell to single digit readings between 3°F and 9°F. As far south as Austin the temperature fell to just 18 degrees F. In some areas of the Red River Valley crop damage was extensive and some sugar beet fields, potato fields, and small grain fields had to be replanted.

A late season snow storm brought heavy snows to many parts of the state over April 29- 30, 1994. Many climate states reported 6 to 12 inches of snowfall. Fortunately, it was short-lived as temperatures climbed into the 50s F over the next several days.

Outlook Spring-like weather for Saturday with a chance for showers in southern Minnesota. Brighter and warmer on Sunday, then even warmer most of next week with temperatures rising above normal. Generally, a drier week ahead.

Last Spring Frost Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 06, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The agricultural planting season has progressed well with a majority (close to 75 percent) of the corn crop planted and more than a third of the soybean acreage planted. In addition, gardeners are removing mulches, planting potted plants outdoors and putting in garden vegetable seeds. Some have even mowed their lawns already. Many have been asking if the last spring frost is behind us.

For the Twin Cities Metro Area the last sub-freezing temperature reported at the MSP Airport was on April 12th with 27°F, but surrounding communities like Stillwater (26°F), New Hope (32°F), and Chanhassen (32°F) reported frost on April 29th.

For most other places in the state I think the last spring frost has already occurred as well. For southern Minnesota communities the last sub-freezing temperatures were on April 13th including: 30°F at Marshall 28°F at Albert Lea 27°F at Zumbrota In western and central Minnesota counties the last sub-freezing temperatures were during the last week of April, including: 32°F at Canby and Milan on the 29th 31°F at Collegeville and St Cloud on the 29th 30°F at Moose Lake on the 29th In northwestern Minnesota counties of the Red River Valley, sub-freezing temperatures occurred a recently as May 1st, including: 24°F at Thief River Falls 31°F at Detroit Lakes and Roseau 32°F at Moorhead

Given the forecasts for the balance of May, there will be some nights with cooler than normal temperatures, but it is likely that the communities listed above have already seen their last frost of the spring occur.

Of course areas of north-central (Bemidji, International Falls) and northeastern Minnesota (Tower and Embarrass) may very well continue to have frosts in late May and early June, because the gardening season always starts later in those area.

Warm Temperatures This spring so far, March 1st to May 6th has brought warmer than normal temperatures (roughly 4°F above average) and wetter than normal conditions to most areas of the state. The March-April two-month period in 2016 ranks among the ten warmest such periods in state history back to 1895.

Prior to Thursday, May 5th the only period that brought 80 degrees F temperatures to the state was over April 14-17 last month, when over 60 Minnesota communities reported afternoon highs of 80°F or higher, topped by 86°F at Wheaton (Traverse County). These values were topped in western and northwestern Minnesota on Thursday, May 5th this week, with many areas reporting 90°F or warmer. Roseau and Hallock topped the list with 93°F. That was a new daily high temperature record for Roseau. Warroad also set a new record daily high with 91°F on the 5th, as did Thorhult with a reading of 90°F, while Fosston tied the daily record with a reading of 90°F.

Weekly Weather Potpourri My wife Cindy and daughter Emma are taking me this week to hear Paul McCartney at Target Center (a birthday present). Like most people I have my favorite Beatles songs, many of which relate to the weather. In fact last year a science writer posted a piece in the UK's Daily Telegraph where she hypothesized that the Beatles popularity in was at least in part enhanced by their singing about the weather which most Brits relate to. 48 of their songs relate to the weather and George Harrison wrote "Here Comes the Sun" after the cold, cloudy winter of 1969.

A large wildfire around Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada was burning out of control this week. It has burned over 200,000 acres and destroyed over 1600 structures, as well as causing the evacuation of over 90,000 people. Persistent warm (temperatures in the 70s and 80s F) and dry climate conditions across Alberta had set up the suitable conditions for this fire to occur. Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail until Sunday (May 8th) when some welcome showers are forecast to reach this area of Alberta. Through their Earth Observatory web site NASA posted several images of the fire.

Environment Canada was releasing air quality alerts for portions of eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan because of the intense smoke from the fire.

Other news this week out of Canada is that climate change, notably warmer temperatures have provoked more algal growth in the Athabasca oil sands of northern Alberta. Scientists from Queen's University studied climate and lake sediments from 23 remote lakes far removed from industrial pollution. They believe the increased algal production in these lakes is driven by aerial nutrient fertilization (atmospheric deposition) enhanced by a warmer temperature pattern. You can read more at the Science Daily web site.

EOS, published by the American Geophysical Union features an article about the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) used as a tool to improve and validate climate models against measured climate data sets. A great deal of work is being done to improve the current generation of climate models, now number twenty in total.

Millions of people in India were relieved to see some significant Pre-Monsoon rains occur across their country this week bringing relief from a Heat Wave that had started in late April and the first two days of May. Temperatures had soared well above 100F during the Heat Wave and caused widespread suffering and even loss of life. In Orissa, the thermometer had measured a temperature of 119F the highest reading ever in the month of April. The rains this week were also welcome from the standpoint of drought relief in some parts of the country. You can read more at the CNN News web site.

The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA announced this week a new Climate Change Atlas that shows current and projected geographic distribution of 134 tree species and 147 bird species across the Eastern USA. The atlas can be used to assess future suitable habit for a range of species.

MPR listener question I noticed in the afternoon weather round-up on Thursday, May 5th at 3pm that many northwestern Minnesota communities were reporting 90 degrees F or greater, including Hallock, Moorhead, Roseau, Fosston, Warroad, Thief River Falls, Thorhult, and Crookston. Yet across to the east about 300 miles at Grand Marais, the temperature was 41°F. How often does this range in temperature occur in Minnesota?

Answer More often than you think, especially this time of year. When the Minnesota landscape is warming up in the spring, but not yet covered by farm crops the soils can warm dramatically, especially in western counties. Conversely the temperatures of the areas around Lake Superior are still modified significantly by Lake Superior, which is slow to warm after the cold winter conditions. As a result, temperature differences of 50 degrees F or greater can be observed across Minnesota at the same moment in time during the months of April and May. On May 19, 2009 at 4:00 pm the temperature was 100°F at Milan (Chippewa County), but just 35°F at Grand Marais Harbor (Cook County). I might further add that this often happens under conditions of very low relative humidity and bright sunshine. Relative humidity values on Thursday, May 5th ranged from just 8 to 19 percent in northwestern Minnesota but were closer to 80 percent at

Grand Marais.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 6th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 6th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees F in 1896 and again in 1934; lowest daily maximum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1931: lowest daily minimum temperature is 25 degrees F in 1989; highest daily minimum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1896; record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1939; and record snowfall of 6.6 inches in 1984.

Average dew point for May 6th is 37 degrees F, with a maximum of 66 degrees F in 1965 and a minimum of 14 degrees F in 1989.

All-Time State Records for May 6th The state record high temperature for this date is 98 degrees F at Grand Meadow (Mower County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 12 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1944. State record precipitation for this date is 3.78 inches at Lake Wilson (Murray County) in 2012; and record snowfall is 10.0 inches at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1938.

Past Weather Features May 6, 1934 was the hottest in state history, with 20 climate stations reporting daytime temperatures of 90F or higher. It was a precursor to one of the hottest months of May in state history. Hundreds of daily maximum temperature records were set that May.

In both 1925 and 1944 low temperatures fell into the teens and twenties F on May 6th. A hard freeze affected even the southern counties and damaged emerged crops. Potatoes and corn crops had to be replanted in some areas.

A rare winter snowstorm crossed the state over May 5-6, 1938 dropping several inches of snowfall. Northern counties measured 3 to 10 inches. The snow was short-lived as temperatures warmed from the 30s F into the 60s F by May 8th.

Persistent heavy rains delayed farm field work during the first week of May in 1964. Many areas of the state received 2-3 inches of rainfall. Planting was delayed over a week to allow fields to dry out.

May 6, 1965 brought a deadly tornado outbreak to the Twin Cities Metro Area. Six tornadoes occurred during the evening hours injuring nearly 700 people and killing 14. It was the second consecutive day of tornadoes in the state. The Minnesota State Climatology Office provides a good retrospective on this significant weather event.

Outlook Generally, a sunny weekend with near seasonal temperatures. Increasing cloudiness on Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A more active weather pattern will dominate next week with cooler temperatures, persistent cloudiness, and a chance for showers each day.

Welcome rains arrive Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 13, 2016 By Mark Seeley

After starting the month with 8 consecutive dry days, interspersed with some record- setting high daily temperatures (90s F in many areas), and low relative humidity (7-15 percent range) some widespread welcome rains blanketed the state this week. Total amounts were generally less than an inch in many northern and central counties, but many southern Minnesota observers reported over 2 inches, including Pipestone, Worthington, Albert Lea, Fairmont, New Ulm, St James, and Caledonia. A handful of observers reported over three inches for the week including Windom, Lakefield, and Sherburn (3.93”).

Prior to these rains there were 58 new daily high temperature records broken or tied around the state over May 6th and 7th. Some of these included: May 6th: 90°F at Moose Lake; 91°F at Grand Rapids and Red Lake Falls; 92°F at Duluth, MSP, and Redwood Falls; 93°F at Milan. May 7th: 90°F at Brainerd and St Peter; 91°F at Waseca, Gaylord, Morris, and Sandy Lake Dam; 92°F at Forest Lake, Browns Valley, and Lake Wilson; 93°F at Madison; and 94F at Marshall.

In addition many areas of the state reported relative humidity readings ranging from just 7 to 19 percent, a condition that provoked a "Red Flag" Warning by the National Weather Service and a warning of high fire danger.

A couple of other weather features that were unusual over the May 6 to 7 period: smoke from northern Minnesota fires was carried on northwesterly winds into the Twin Cities Metro Area Friday night and into Saturday morning causing an air quality advisory to be issued. Many residents closed their windows to keep out the smell of burning wood. The cold front that brought the smoke also brought much cooler air across the state. Temperatures fell from the 90s F to the upper 30s F and low 40s F at places like Duluth, Wolf Ridge, Ely, and Floodwood. At Lake Kabetogama the temperature fell from 85°F to 30°F producing widespread frost in the area; while at Duluth the temperature fell from 92°F to the low 40s F with snow flurries!

First balloon meteorological observations This past Monday (May 9th) marked the 154th anniversary of the famous balloon ascents of British scientists James Glaisher and Henry Coxwell. They made 18 ascents in a gas filled balloon, the first of which was on May 9, 1862. They were the first to carry meteorological instruments aloft to make measurements of the character of the atmosphere. They established that nocturnal inversions were common and that lapse rate (change in temperature with altitude) can vary dramatically. They read their instruments on night ascents by wearing miner's lamps (the balloon was filled with highly combustible hydrogen!). In one famous ascent to an altitude of 30,000 ft, Glaisher lost consciousness and Coxwell, who was groggy and had numb, frozen hands, still found a way to pull the valve-cord hard enough with his teeth so that enough gas was released to allow them to descend back to Earth.

Weekly weather potpourri If you are interested in the network of State Climatologists across the USA, NOAA has provided a web site to find them and their contact information. The American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) will have their annual meeting in Sante Fe, NM starting on June 28th next month. This organization provides data and pragmatic climate services to every state in the USA.

A study this week from the Geophysical Research Letters explains why the 2015-2016 El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was so strong and long-lived. It was connected to sea surface temperature behavior in the Central Pacific Ocean as well.

According to NOAA-NCEP Alaska has started the year 2016 with the warmest ever January through April period, averaging over 11°F above normal. So far this year over 550 new daily high temperature records have been tied or broken within the Alaska climate network. In the month of April alone 17 days brought new record high temperatures to Anchorage.

MPR Listener Question Last year at least 24 dates brought significant hail to some parts of Minnesota. When is the peak of the hail season in our state and how many dates per year bring hail?

Answer The date with the highest frequency of hail varies around the state, but in general historical data show the peak period for hail to occur is the last week of May and first full week of June for most locations in the state. Overall, on a statewide basis there are typically 10-20 dates with reports of hail each year, with 3-7 dates showing reports of large hail (three quarters inch diameter or larger). Observers around Mora, MN reported 1 inch diameter hail earlier this month on May 6th.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 13th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 13th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 2001; lowest daily maximum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1907: lowest daily minimum temperature is 31 degrees F in 1907 and 1980; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2001; record precipitation of 1.95 inches in 1911; and record snowfall is a trace in 1902 and 1935.

Average dew point for May 13th is 44 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 1998 and a minimum of 20 degrees F in 2011.

All-time state records for May 13th The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1894, at Rothsay (Wilkin County) in 1977, and at Granite Falls in 2007. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1997. State record precipitation for this date is 4.63 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1999; and record snowfall is 3.0 inches at Argyle (Marshall County) in 1924.

Past Weather Features Snow falls across portions of the Red River Valley and north-central Minnesota over May 12-14, 1907 bringing a halt to planting of small grains and potatoes. The snow was short lived as temperatures soon warmed into the 50s and 60s F.

Widespread hard frost on May 13, 1918 caused many farmers to have to replant crops. Temperatures fell into the teens and twenties F from the Iowa border north to Canada. At some locations, the daytime temperature never rose out of the 40s F.

On a statewide basis perhaps 1977 brought the hottest May 13th in history with over 25 communities reporting afternoon temperatures in the 90s F. It reached 90°F as far north as Walker, Thorhult, and Hibbing. May of 1977 was the warmest in state history, so there were many more days of 90°F temperatures.

Over May 11-13, 1997 a cold front brought snowfall to many parts of the state. Observers in northeastern Minnesota reported up to 3.5 inches of snow. This was followed by February-like temperatures with lows in the teens and twenties F. On May 13th Tower reported a high of 35°F and a low of just 10°F.

Outlook The Fishing Opener in Minnesota on Saturday (May 14) looks to be a cold one with temperatures in the 30s and 40s F to start the day. Only some modest winds will prevent frost across many southern parts of the state. Northeastern areas of the state are likely to see some lows in the 20s F and perhaps even a few snow flurries. Daytime highs there may just be in the 40s F on Saturday, warming into the 50s F on Sunday. Warmer yet on Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for rain. Temperatures will climb to normal values by the end of next week.

Widespread frosts May 14-18 Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 20, 2016 By Mark Seeley

A persistent dry high-pressure system brought repeated frosts to many parts of Minnesota over the period May 14-18 this week. Many farmers have assessed the damage to crops, but in most cases, corn was not significantly damaged because it was early enough in the growth cycle that the growing point was below the soil service. There was some damage to early planted soybean fields, but that represents a relatively small percentage of the acreage. Elsewhere some spotty damage to apple trees, grape vines, and fruit were reported.

In fact those 5 days also produced over 30 new daily record low temperature values across the observational climate networks in the state. A sampling of some of these new record low temperatures by date includes: May 14: 22°F at Thief River Falls; 23°F at Ada and Red Lake Falls; 27°F at Long Prairie; 28°F at Walker; and 29°F at Collegeville and St Cloud. May 15: 20°F at Hibbing (also coldest in the nation); 24°F at Orr; 26°F at Zumbrota; 27°F at Eveleth; 28°F at Caledonia; and 29°F at Austin. May 16: 25°F at Kabetogama; 29°F at Litchfield; and 31°F at Forest Lake and Winona May 17: 25°F at Isabella; and 28°F at Ely. May 18: 31°F at Preston and Theilman

The dry air mass and absence of clouds produced some remarkable daily ranges in temperature this week: On May 16 Breckenridge (Wilkin County) reported a low of 32°F and a high of 72°F; on May 17th Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) reported a low of 27°F and a high of 66°F; and on May 18th Brimson (St Louis County) reported a morning low of 25°F and an afternoon high of 70°F.

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday of this week (May 19). They called for warmer than normal temperatures to prevail across most of Minnesota over the June-August time period. Precipitation for the three months has equal chances of being above or below normal values over most of the state. Trends of recent years favor warmer and wetter than normal growing seasons across the state.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Tropical Cyclone Roanu brought from 12 to 20 inches of rain earlier this week to portions of Sri Lanka where massive mudslides occurred. The storm moved up along the east coast of India and was churning off the coast of Bangladesh later this week producing waves up to 20 feet and wind gusts over 90 mph. This storm is expected to bring significant rains to coastal areas of Bangladesh and Myanmar over the coming weekend.

In addition that part of the world was experiencing a deadly Heat Wave this week with daily high temperatures in parts of India reaching 115°F and higher. In fact, in the western state of Rajasthan, the town of Phalodi reported a high of 124°F on May 19th setting an all-time high temperature record for the country of India. The India Meteorological Department expects the Heat Wave to continue into next week.

This week NOAA features an article about the Fort McMurray Fire in Alberta, Canada and recent climate patterns there. Prior to the fire April snow cover in northern Alberta was well below average, and the vegetative fuels on the landscape dried out rapidly with warmer temperatures earlier this spring.

Recent studies by the University of East Anglia suggest that poor countries in the Horn of Africa and East Africa may experience a high frequency of heat stress sooner than other wealthier counties. These countries are also populated by cultures and societal infrastructure that are less capable of coping with the stresses of climate change.

Minnesota Public Radio aired a program on "Climate Change and Your Health" this week as part of MPR News Presents. This program was recorded live at the Rochester Civic Theater back on April 26th and is hosted by Cathy Wurzer. I was one of many guests interviewed there.

MPR listener question I have been a reader of your weekly blog "Minnesota WeatherTalk' for years and I also have a copy of your book Minnesota Weather Almanac (2n ed.). I wondered if there are any dates on the calendar where the same community holds the record for the all-time statewide high temperature and low temperature? It seems a very remote possibility.

Answer Indeed. There are two dates on the calendar when the same Minnesota community holds the statewide high and low temperature records. One is May 12th where Hallock (Kittson County) reported an all-time state high of 98°F in 1900 and an all-time state low of just 11°F in 1946. The other is September 27th when Beardsley (Big Stone County) reported an all-time state low of just 13°F in 1893 and one year later, 1894 an all-time state high of 97°F. Obviously citizens in Hallock and Beardsley need to be careful with their gardening plans!

Twin Cities Almanac for May 20th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 71 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 20th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 2009; lowest daily maximum temperature of 45 degrees F in 1931: lowest daily minimum temperature is 31 degrees F in 1892; highest daily minimum temperature of 69 degrees F in 2009; record precipitation of 1.14 inches in 1937; and record snowfall is 3.0 inches in 1892.

Average dew point for May 20th is 46 degrees F, with a maximum of 69 degrees F in 1974 and a minimum of 19 degrees F in 1954.

All-time state records for May 20th The state record high temperature for this date is 100 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 16 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2002. State record precipitation for this date is 4.83 inches at Winton (St Louis County) in 1970; and record snowfall is 4.8 inches at Virginia (St Louis County) in 1931.

Words of the Week: acclimate and acclimatize These words are often used synonymously to refer to the process by which a living organism adapts to a change of environment. Sometimes acclimatize refers to the use of human ingenuity in adaptation, such as the utilization of air conditioning in the desert southwest or employing special diets to survive on polar expeditions. And on the other hand acclimate is sometimes used to refer to natural adaptation, such as the adjustment in the eyes which takes place in moving from inside a somewhat darkened building out into the bright sun, or a change in our respiration (breathing) when we are exposed to a hotter, more humid environment.

Past Weather Features Widespread snow and snow flurries were observed around the state on May 20, 1892. With morning temperatures in the 20s and 30s F many observers reported 1 to 4 inches of snow before the noon hour.

On a statewide basis the coldest May 20th occurred in 1907. Morning low temperatures fell into the 20s F causing a widespread hard freeze and damage to many crops. Hallock in the Red River Valley reported just 18°F, while in the south both Grand Meadow and Zumbrota reported 25°F.

Winter returned briefly to northern Minnesota over May 20-21, 1931. With temperatures in the 30s F many observers reported from 1 to 6 inches of snow. Temperatures rebounded into the 50s F the next day, quickly melting the snow.

May 20, 1934 was the hottest in state history. Most communities reported record-setting high temperatures for the day and at least 30 climate stations reported afternoon temperatures of 90°F or higher. Six more record-setting hot days occurred before the end of the month.

Heavy rains prevailed across the state over May 20-22, 1953. Many areas received 1-2 inches of rainfall, with some thunder and hail in places. Litchfield, Moose Lake, Cloquet, and Elk River reported over 3 inches of rain with some localized flooding.

Outlook Mostly sunny weekend with above normal temperatures. Increasing cloudiness on Sunday night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Continued chance for showers through the middle of next week with temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

Spotty rains to finish off May Minnesota WeatherTalk, May 27, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Earlier this week May 24-25 brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to many parts of the state, with many areas receiving over an inch of rainfall. Portions of Morrison, Pope, and Sibley Counties reported some hail, while strong winds caused some damages in Blue Earth and Steele Counties. A tornado was reported near Amelia Lake in Pope County. You can read more about these storms at the State Climatology Office web site.

For some areas record daily rainfall amounts were recorded. Some of these included: 1.54 inches at Detroit Lakes and 0.95 inches at Walker on May 24th; and 1.53 inches at Chatfield and 1.77 inches at Spring Valley on May 25th. With the added rainfall this week, over 30 climate stations now report at least 3 inches of rainfall for the month, after a very dry first half of May. A few spots have recorded over 4 inches, including Spring Valley, Lakefield, and Windom.

Looks like for most areas of the state May will end up with near normal mean monthly temperature, despite some ups and downs. Extremes ranged from 94°F at Marshall on May 6th to just 20°F at Hibbing on May 15th. Most climate stations are reporting a drier than normal month, but with four more days left and chances for showers many areas may yet see normal rainfall totals.

Greg Spoden, State Climatologist Retires After 31 years with the Minnesota DNR State Climatology office and the last 5 years as the State Climatologist Greg Spoden is retiring. He is widely respected and admired for his many decades of service to the state. His work has supported the efforts of academic faculty at the University of Minnesota, as well as many state and federal agencies. He has exhibited a mastery of many skills, but most especially at developing statistically based computer tools to assess and analyze the Minnesota state climate database. Along with many others I will greatly miss him. Further comments about Greg can be heard on the MPR "Morning Edition" web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The National Integrated Heat Health Information System allows users to examine current heat advisories and warning around the country and keep up on heat related health issues. NIHHIS builds understanding of extreme heat, defines demand for climate services, develops science-based products and services from a sustained climate science research program, and improves capacity, communication, and societal understanding to reduce morbidity and mortality due to extreme heat.

An interesting article about the variation and changing climate of the North Atlantic

Ocean region was published this week by the UK Met Office. The researchers show evidence that much of this change may be due to natural variability, but questions remain open about climate change effects.

MPR listener question Is Memorial Day (Monday) always the nicest day of the three-day holiday weekend? Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

Answer Greg Spoden of the Minnesota State Climatology Office analyzed Memorial Weekends since 1971, the year the holiday was designated as the last Monday in May. He used the Twin Cities climate records and found that the frequency of measurable rainfall over the Friday through Monday period shows some very interesting differences. Saturday and Sunday show a 45 percent occurrence of rainfall, Friday a 38 percent occurrence, but Monday shows only a 28 percent occurrence. So, I guess for planning purposes, outdoor events are least impacted on Monday of the holiday weekend.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 27th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 27th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 1969; lowest daily maximum temperature of 44 degrees F in 1965: lowest daily minimum temperature is 34 degrees F in 1907; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 1969; record precipitation of 2.17 inches in 1978; and record snowfall is a trace in 1965.

Average dew point for May 27th is 48 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 2012 and a minimum of 25 degrees F in 2011.

State records for May 27th The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County) in 1895. State record precipitation for this date is 4.22 inches at New York Mills (Otter Tail County) in 2012; and record snowfall is 5.0 inches at Virginia (St Louis County) in 1932.

Past Weather Features Probably the all-time coldest May 27th occurred statewide in 1907. Widespread frost and freezing temperatures occurred from north to south, with many areas reporting morning lows in the 20s F. It was just 28°F as far south as Grand Meadow. Many crop fields and gardens had to be replanted that spring.

With temperatures in the 30s F many northern communities reported 1 to 5 inches of snowfall on May 27, 1932. It was short-lived as temperatures rebounded into the 50s and 60s F the next day.

May 27, 1969 was the hottest in state history with over 60 communities reporting afternoon highs of 90 degrees F or greater. Many climate stations remained above 70 degrees F for all 24 hours with high dewpoints.

Outlook Mostly cloudy on Saturday with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Less so on Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures and periods of sunny skies. Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures.

May closes wet for some Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 03, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The last week of May brought frequent, and sometimes heavy rains to many parts of the state. for some northern Minnesota climate stations, it rained each day over the last week of the month. Spotty thunderstorms brought some new record daily rainfall amounts over the last day of May, including 0.99 inches at Lakefield; 1.67 inches at Hokah; 1.29 inches at La Crescent; 1.27 inches at Austin; 1.19 inches at Hallock; and an incredible 4.45 inches at Crookston. That amount at Crookston ranked as the 4th highest daily rainfall in history there.

Thought most areas of the state recorded a drier than normal May, thanks to the high frequency of rainfall during the last week, a few climate stations reported one of their wettest Mays. Some of these included: Crookston 6.68 inches (3rd wettest) Lakefield 5.44 inches (5th wettest) Lamberton 5.56 inches (9yh wettest) Worthington 6.90 inches (7th wettest) Hutchinson 7.29 inches (2nd wettest)

Stored soil moisture remains near average or greater for most areas of the state as we head into June.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A recent paper from researchers at Concordia University in Montreal documents the climate and energy saving benefits from using more reflective roofing materials. Such measures on a broad scale can actually diminish the effects of "urban heat islands."

NOAA news blog (climate.gov) features an interesting article this week about using climate models to plan for more effective use of Colorado River water and to mitigate the risks of diminished water supply due to a higher frequency of drought.

Michigan State University has developed a classroom activity to help students understand the link between climate and phenology (such as bird migrations). You can find guidance and an outline of activity for this curriculum at their web site.

Southern Germany and central France were plagued by persistent heavy thunderstorms earlier this week dropping 3-5 inches of rain over widespread areas. The resulting floods displace thousands of residents along river flood plains and even caused some removal of art works from the Louvre in Paris which is located along the river Seine.

Similarly in parts of east Texas strong thunderstorms during the last week of May brought heavy rains that produced widespread flooding. Some observers reported 10- 17 inches of rain over a 5-day period. This was the 2nd consecutive year that May has brought flooding rains to Texas. Some climate stations recorded over 20 inches of rain for the month.

MPR listener question I am training for Grandma's Marathon in Duluth this month and May brought at least two smoky days to Minnesota, with poor air quality. I did not run on those days. Since atmospheric inversions (increase of temperature with height) are often associated with poor air quality, what is the season with the most frequent occurrence of inversions in Minnesota?

Answer A study done at St Cloud State University a number of years ago showed that inversions are far more common during the winter season. This was based on taking historical atmospheric soundings of the National Weather Service (instrumented balloons launched twice each day). Inversions occurred about 90 percent of all days in the winter (Dec-Feb), and about 50 to 55 percent of all days in the summer (Jun-Aug). Inversions were also shown to be far more common in the early morning hours than in the evening hours. I suspect you will have few or even zero occurrences of poor air quality before Grandma's Marathon on the 18th of this month.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 3rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 55 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 3rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees F in 1923; lowest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1897 and again in 1990; lowest daily minimum temperature is 34 degrees F in 1945; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 1898; record precipitation of 1.71 inches in 1914; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 3rd is 49 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 1963 and a minimum of 24 degrees F in 1929.

All-time state records for June 3rd The state record high temperature for this date is 98 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1940, and at several locations in 1968. The state record low temperature for this date is 19 degrees F at Ely (St Louis County) in 1947. State record precipitation for this date is 7.10 inches at Pine River Dam (Crow Wing County) in 1898; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features On June 3, 1860, an F5 tornado cut a path across Iowa from Dewitt to Comanche, along the Mississippi River near the Illinois border. As described by eyewitnesses, this strong tornado actually formed as a merger of two lesser tornadoes that collided. It remains one of the worst to ever strike the midwest, resulting in 92 deaths and 200 injuries. The town of Comanche, IA was completely destroyed, including 39 businesses and 150 homes. The tornado was 1000 yards wide and cut a path of over 80 miles. When it crossed the Mississippi River and struck Albany, IL it tore up the cemetery and scattered gravestones for miles.

June 3, 1928 brought widespread frosts, with morning lows in the 20s F in many areas. In western counties some crops had to be replanted.

On June 3, 1955 strong thunderstorm winds overturned a boat on Lake Traverse (Traverse County) drowning seven people.

June 3, 1968 was the hottest in history on a statewide basis. Over 80 Minnesota communities reported afternoon highs of 90°F or greater.

June started out very wet in 2002, bringing 3-4 inches of rain to many parts of southern Minnesota. It was a precursor to one of the wettest Junes in state history.

Outlook Lingering chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but a brighter day on Sunday with below normal temperatures. Continuing mild and sunny weather through Wednesday, then increasing clouds, humidity, and temperature by Thursday with a chance for thunderstorms.

June frosts in the north country Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 10, 2016 By Mark Seeley

June 7 and 8 brought cold morning temperatures to many parts of the state, especially northeastern counties. Many climate observers reported morning lows in the 30s F, and several reported frost. A number of climate stations also reported new record daily low temperatures. These included: June 7th 37F at Kabetogama and Littlefork June 8th: 28F at Crane Lake; 29F at Hibbing and Orr; 30F at International Falls and Babbitt; and 37F at Sandstone.

Actually frosts this time of year are not all that unusual in northern Minnesota counties, with a 10 to 20 percent historical frequency during the 2nd week of June.

Heavy rains on June 9th The heaviest rains of the month so far occurred on June 9th. Dew points climbed from 40F the previous day into the low 60sF just before the rains occurred. Many observers reported over 1 inch of rainfall, and a few southern Metro observers reported over 2 inches, including a record daily value of 2.52 inches at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Chanhassen. A couple of spots in Chaska reported over 3 inches.

The Urban Heat Island Explored by Bicycle A number of years ago an article in Weather magazine described the urban heat island of Reading, England as measured by a bicyclist who used a simple digital thermometer with a 10 second response time. He repeatedly cycled 5 mile long transects through the city center near sunset and recorded temperatures along the way about every 1 km. His measurements showed a mean urban heat island effect of about 3 to 4 degrees F, that is the city center tended to be that much warmer than the perimeter areas around the city. Under some conditions, he measured a maximum temperature difference of over 12 degrees F.

These temperature data are similar in magnitude to some of those being measured by the "Islands in the Sun" project of Dr. Snyder and Dr. Twine here in the Twin Cities Metro Area, where the frost-free season can vary in length by as much as 8 to 12 days.

I would be interested to hear from any listeners or readers who routinely bicycle around the Twin Cities area and have found highly perceptible differences in temperature along the routes they take. I would suspect that some city parks and/or city lakes may have some noticeable cooling effects on air temperature, especially in the summer months.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA scientists this week offer a more detailed discussion of the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. They particularly spend time describing why the outlook is so uncertain this year.

A recent paper in Nature Communications discusses Arctic warming and how it is affecting the melting rate of Greenland's ice sheet as well as the polar jet stream. The authors suggest we will witness mote surprising changes in the behavior of the Arctic climate system in coming years.

AGU published an interesting retrospective on the Mt Pinatubo eruption 25 years ago, and the scientific knowledge accrued since that time. It is very interesting reading.

MPR listener question What are the records for most single day rainfall and most monthly rainfall in June?

Answer The single day record is 10.40 inches at Two Harbors on June 20, 2012 (Duluth Flood), while the monthly record is 15.63 inches at Delano in June of 2002.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 10th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 77 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 3rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 99 degrees F in 1956; lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1945; lowest daily minimum temperature is 40 degrees F in 1877; highest daily minimum temperature of 73 degrees F in 1973; record precipitation of 1.77 inches in 1874; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 3rd is 53 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 2002 and a minimum of 20 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for June 10th The state record high temperature for this date is 106 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1933. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Remer (Cass County) in 1985. State record precipitation for this date is 6.05 inches at Agassiz Refuge (Marshall County) in 2002; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Word of the Week: "Sheep's Cold" This expression comes courtesy of Jo Farrow of the BBC Weather Centre. In Austria, a late spring or early summer cold spell that comes close to June 11 is referred to as "sheep's cold" weather (or schafskalte). It brings a bit of a shock to the sheep as they have typically just been sheared for the impending summer season and are therefore more susceptible to the cold. So, I guess you could call the cold mornings in northern Minnesota this week, when temperatures dipped into the 20s F, "sheep's cold."

Past Weather Features The hottest June 10th in state history occurred in 1933. Nearly every part of the state reached 90F or greater that day with 10 climate stations reporting 100F or greater. It was a trend that lasted all month, as June of 1933 was the hottest in state history.

Many areas of the state reported frost on June 10, 1972. Several climate stations in northeastern Minnesota reported low temperatures in the 20s F, and frost was reported as far south as Zumbrota (Goodhue County), where some soybean fields had to be replanted.

Strong thunderstorms brought record-setting rains and flash floods to many parts of the state over June 9-10, 2002. Portions of Lake of the Woods and Roseau Counties saw 12 to 14 inches of rain, sending a record flood crest down the Roseau River. More details can be found from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

Outlook Warm weekend coming up with chances for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. Continued chance for showers into Monday and Tuesday, but with cooler temperatures that are closer to normal.

Heavy rains dominate the week Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 17, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The warm and humid conditions of last weekend help set the stage for numerous thunderstorms this week across much of the state. Recall that the weather of last weekend produced widespread readings in the 90s F around the state, including a record high of 98°F at Winnebago on the 11th, and a record high of 96°F at Lake Wilson on the same date. Many observers also reported near record dew points in the 70s F, leading to Heat Index readings over 100°F in many places. This represents a large quantity of water vapor which does not allow the air to cool off much at night. As a result, Tracy set a new record warm minimum temperature on the 10th, with a reading of 73°F.

All of the water vapor in the atmosphere served as fuel for thunderstorms, which became widespread across the state over June 11-14. Over those 4 days many areas received from 2-4 inches of rain. A few highly localized amounts were even greater causing some short-lived flooding concerns. You can read more about the distribution of these storms at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Some climate stations reported new daily rainfall records as a result of these thunderstorms. These included: on the 11th Lake City 2.03 inches; on the 12th Thorhult 1.70 inches; on the 13th Eveleth 2.51", Dassel 3.19", Embarrass 1.96", and Stillwater 1.54"; on the 14th Amboy 2.00"; and on June 15th record values were reported for La Crescent 1.78", Melrose 1.80", Caledonia 1.51", Harmony 2.07", Houston 2.83", Waseca 3.19", and Forest Lake 2.00".

The strong thunderstorms on June 14th produced tornadoes in Pipestone, Traverse, Big Stone, Le Sueur, and Blue Earth Counties. All were relatively short-lived and produced relatively little damage. Very strong winds up to 60mph were also reported from portions of Nobles, Jackson, Cottonwood, Brown, and Watonwan Counties.

As a result of the rainy week, many climate stations are already reporting total monthly rainfall that exceeds the June normal. This continues a recent climate trend for June, as 15 of the most recent Junes have been normal or wetter than normal on a statewide basis.

New seasonal climate outlooks NOAA Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal climate outlooks this week. The new outlooks covering the period from July-September favor warmer than normal temperatures over a vast area of the USA, including Minnesota. The outlooks also favor wetter than normal conditions for most of the southern half of Minnesota.

Weekly weather potpourri Weather for Grandma's Marathon along the north shore of Lake Superior this Saturday from Two Harbors to Duluth looks good. Starting in the morning with increasing cloudiness, light south winds and temperatures in the upper 50s F to low 60s F. There will be a 40-50 percent chance of showers by mid-morning as temperatures warm into the low 70s F.

Recently NOAA scientists revisited the sources of carbon dioxide emitted into Earth's atmosphere each year. Human activity as a source of carbon dioxide far outweighs any other sources.

The UK Met Office has another interesting article this week about the trend in atmospheric carbon dioxide, showing that 2016 will be the first year with concentrations above 400ppm on a year round basis since measurements began at the Mauna Loa Observatory in 1958.

A recent study from the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University reveals that the public is more likely to believe climate scientist's warnings about climate change if they see that these scientists are practicing conservation and reducing their own environmental footprints.

MPR listener question The other night at the Pub 500 in Mankato we got into an argument about which month brings the most 2-inch thunderstorm rains. I am sure it is June because I have had so many hay cuttings ruined by heavy rains in June. My neighbor insists it is more common in August. Who is right?

Answer For the Mankato area you are correct. Over 30 percent of all historical thunderstorms that brought 2 inches of rain or more have occurred in the month of June. August has brought about 20 percent of such storms. There is some geographic disparity in this climate attribute across the state. For most of southern Minnesota, June indeed has the highest frequency of heavy thunderstorm rainfalls, with the second highest frequency in August. In northern counties the highest frequency is in August, and along the north shore area near Lake Superior there is a-second-high frequency of such storms in September, while the lake surface remains warm from accumulated summer heat.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 17th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 17th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 97 degrees F in 1933; lowest daily maximum temperature of 54 degrees F in 1876; lowest daily minimum temperature is 42 degrees F in 1960; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1921; record precipitation of 1.72 inches in 1883; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 17th is 56 degrees F, with a maximum of 74 degrees F in 1994 and a minimum of 39 degrees F in 1958.

All-time state records for June 17th The state record high temperature for this date is 102 degrees F at Campbell (Wilkin County) in 1933. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 2000. State record precipitation for this date is 8.67 inches at Minnesota (Lyon County) in 1957; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features The warmest ever June 17th occurred in 1933 when nearly every part of the state (except communities along Lake Superior) reported record high temperatures in the 90s F. Eight climate stations reached the century mark.

Over June 16-18, 1957 thunderstorms produced hail and heavy rains across many parts of the state. Many farm fields were flooded by 2-4 inches of rain. Especially hard hit were southwestern counties where rainfall totals ranged from 7-9 inches. Some fields had to be replanted.

A very cold on the morning on June 17, 2000. Many northern counties reported morning lows in the 30s F, while Embarrass and Tower reported readings in the 20s F. As far south as Wabasha County some ground frost was reported.

Outlook Chance for showers in the north on Saturday, partly cloudy elsewhere. Much warmer on Sunday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Heat index values may exceed 100°F in some places, and some of the storms on Sunday may be severe. Continued chance for showers on Monday, but with cooler temperatures. Dry and mild Tuesday-Wednesday, then chance of showers again by Thursday.

June Storms Minnesota WeatherTalk, June 24, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Storms late last week and earlier this week brought some damage reports due to hail, wind, and flooding. Over last Friday and Saturday (June 17-18), widespread large hail (1-1.5-inch diameter) was reported from 14 Minnesota western counties. Then on Sunday June 19th, large hail was reported from 10 northern Minnesota counties, including grapefruit size stones observed near Nisswa in Crow Wing County. Tornadoes were also reported that day from Wadena, Cass, and Itasca Counties, although all were brief touchdowns with relatively little damage associated. Strong thunderstorm winds (up to 70mph) knocked down trees and damaged cabins in Crow Wing and Itasca Counties, and a great deal of wind damage was reported from the Duncan Lake region of the BWCA, where some campers were injured and a man was killed by a falling tree. More details on these storms can be found at the State Climatology Office web site.

Continuing this weather trend, strong thunderstorms brought rain, hail, and high winds to portions of Rice, Steele, Goodhue, Dodge, and Scott Counties on Wednesday, June 22nd. A few places like Byron and grand Meadow received over an inch of rain from these storms. Over the past week thunderstorms brought new daily rainfall records to Redwood Falls, Montevideo, and Dawson in the west, and Cotton in the north, with amounts ranging from 1.50 to nearly 3 inches. So far 32 new daily rainfall records have been set this month in the Minnesota climate observing networks, and more may come from unsettled weather over the coming weekend.

Thanks to heavy rains from thunderstorms, many climate observers are reporting over 5 inches of rain for the month of June, and a handful like Hutchinson, Mankato, New Ulm, Redwood Falls, Preston, and La Crescent have received over 6 inches. Though many observers are reporting above normal rainfall for this month, some areas of west-central Minnesota, especially from Wilkin to Lac Qui Parle Counties, remain drier than normal with rainfall deficiencies ranging from 3-5 inches since May 1st.

Some farmers in Brown, Redwood, Renville, and Stearns Counties were assessing hail damage to corn and soybean fields. The University of Minnesota Extension has published some guidelines on assessing such damage for determining whether to replant fields. If you know someone in this situation, please encourage them to check out these guidelines.

Weekly Weather Potpourri

A hot June has prevailed in many western states, especially California, Nevada, and Arizona. Here are the average daily temperature departures and extreme values of temperature so far for selected western climate stations: Las Vegas, NV, +6.0°F, with a high of 115°F Phoenix, AZ, +4.0°F, with a high of 118°F Needles, CA, +7.0°F, with a high of 125°F Death Valley, CA, +6.0°F, with a high of 126°F

This June will rank historically very high if not record-setting with respect to temperature at many of these locations. More about this Heat Wave in the west can be found at the NOAA web site.

This week on NOAA Event Tracker there is an interesting feature on the flooding rains in France and Germany that occurred earlier this season. Some scientists link the unusual weather pattern that brought persistent heavy rains over these countries to climate change signals.

A recent paper in the International Journal of Climatology documents the climate characteristics of ice storms across the USA. It shows that central and western Minnesota counties have a higher annual frequency of ice storms (quarter inch of deposition or greater) than most other states in the Midwest, but not quite as high as some northeastern states. Peak occurrence of such storms is in the months of January and March, with a secondary peak in December.

A recent paper from Columbia University published in the journal Environmental Health examines the expected change in frequency of Heat Waves for New York City due to global climate change by the year 2080. There is considerable interest in this topic by health professionals who serve urban populations which already suffer from city "heat islands" in the summer.

MPR listener question My question relates to sleeping weather. We live in South Minneapolis in a home without air conditioning. Our habit is to leave the bedrooms windows open at night and capture the cool outside air. But that is not happening very frequently this month. How many nights has the nighttime temperature dropped below 60°F this month compared to average?

Answer I'm with you, cool nights below 60F are great for sleeping. So far in the Twin Cities we have seen only 8 such nights this month, compared to a historical average of 15 or 16. Hopefully, we'll get a couple of more before the end of June. Such nighttime temperatures become pretty rare in July. In four of the past 7 Julys there have been no nights when the temperature dropped below 60°F.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 24th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 24th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 101 degrees F in 1988; lowest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1928; lowest daily minimum temperature is 44 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 degrees F in 1954; record precipitation of 2.36 inches in 1911; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 24th is 57 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 2003 and a minimum of 29 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for June 24th The state record high temperature for this date is 106 degrees F at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) in 1988. The state record low temperature for this date is 20 degrees F at Remer (Cass County) in 1985. State record precipitation for this date is 7.60 inches at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 2003; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features A high-pressure system from Canada brought cool weather to Minnesota on June 24, 1985. Many climate stations reported record low temperatures in the 30s F, and a few stations in the north reported frosts with temperatures in the 20s F.

By far the hottest June 24th in state history was in 1988. Over 30 communities in the state reported afternoon temperatures of 100F or higher. The coolest spot in the state was Grand Marais with a temperature of 53F.

June 22-25, 2003 brought bouts of heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and even tornadoes to many parts of the state. Heavy rains totaling over 6 inches brought flooding to parts of Morrison, Aitkin, Renville, Sherburne, and Wright Counties. A tornado caused extensive property damage in Buffalo Lake (Wright County).

Outlook Warm and humid on Saturday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible in some areas. Breezy on Sunday, with a chance for a few stray showers early. Cooler Monday through Wednesday next week and generally dry. Below normal temperatures and another chance for showers by Thursday.

Preliminary June Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 01, 2016 By Mark Seeley

For most of Minnesota June was warm, with an average monthly temperature that ranged from 1 to 3°F greater than normal. A few areas of northern Minnesota reported slightly cooler than normal mean June temperature values. Extreme temperatures ranged from 100 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 12th to just 28 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 8th. A few days with dew points in the 70s F pushed the Heat Index above 100 degrees F at several locations and caused the National Weather Service to issue several Heat Advisories.

Rainfall for the month was near normal in most areas, except for west-central counties, and some isolated areas of northwestern Minnesota in the Red River Valley, which reported less than normal rainfall for the month. Above normal rainfall was reported by some observers, especially in southeastern and northeastern areas. Eveleth, Tower, Brimson, and Two Harbors reported over 7 inches for the month, and Houston in southeastern Minnesota reported over 8 inches. The largest one-day rainstorm was 5.25 inches just southwest of Mankato over June 14-15. Several areas of the state reported some short-lived flooding from severe thunderstorms, and a number of tornadoes were reported, along with large hail. At least 36 new daily rainfall records were reported during June from Minnesota’s weather observer networks. Some Minnesota farmers had to replant fields due to washouts or hail damage.

Cool start to July July 1st brought below normal temperatures to the state. Many northern areas reported morning lows in the 30s F, including 35°F at Hibbing and Embarrass, and 34°F at Brimson. Elk River in central Minnesota reported a new record low of 47°F and Kabetogama in Voyageurs National Park reported a new record low of 38°F. These temperature values are about 10-15°F below normal for July 1st. It was for many the coldest start to the month of July since 1969. 80th Anniversary of Minnesota's worst Heat Wave Next week marks the 80th Anniversary of the start of Minnesota's worst Heat Wave. It started in southern counties on July 4, 1936 with many observers reporting daytime temperatures over 100F. The Heat Wave spread north over the next 12-15 days. Even northern communities reported temperatures close to 100F, and nighttime temperatures remained in the 80s F in many areas, falling into the 70s F near lakes and in low lying areas. There was no respite from the heat, as many citizens chose to sleep outside. It is estimated that this Heat Wave caused over 900 deaths in Minnesota and at least 5000 deaths across the nation. It was also combined with serious drought.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earth and Space Science News featured an interesting article this week about the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU and expected negative impacts on the European science community. Many scientists think this will make it more difficult to work collaboratively among various national institutions in Europe.

Another article this week published by EOS features a story about citizen scientists who in recent years have been helping to collect sea ice data in the Arctic Ocean. These data have been used by a number of organizations who are studying the decline in Arctic Sea Ice as it relates to global climate change.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office offered its first rendition of the “Summer Glory Index: this week. June of 2016 ranked as the 24th nicest in 114 years of records according to the SCO.

A recent paper in the journal Nature Communications suggests that obtaining better soils data will be beneficial in predicting future crop productivity under various scenarios of climate change. In some regions of the world soils and soil management is the primary driver of crop yield, more so than climate variability or the deployment of farm technology.

MPR listener question When was the hottest 4th of July in Minnesota? Also, when was the wettest? Answer In the Twin Cities Metro Area, the hottest July 4th was in 2012 when it hit 101 degrees F and the Heat Index reached 108 degrees F. In 1949, the 4th of July temperature in the Twin Cities reached 100°F with a Heat Index of 111°F. The wettest was in 1900 when 2.27 inches of rain fell in the Twin Cities. Statewide the hottest July 4th was in 1936 when both Pipestone and Worthington reported 107 degrees F. The all-time wettest July 4th was in 1995 when Milan received 9.78 inches of rainfall that produced flash flooding. The Chippewa River rose 9 feet and reached its 2nd highest ever flood crest. Thirty-two sheep were drowned in the flood.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 1st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 1st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1883; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1945; lowest daily minimum temperature is 46 degrees F in 1969 and 1995; highest daily minimum temperature of 80 degrees F in 2002; record precipitation of 2.85 inches in 1997; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for July 1st is 58 degrees F, with a maximum of 78 degrees F in 1916 and a minimum of 34 degrees F in 2001.

All-time state records for July 1st The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1911. The state record low temperature for this date is 30 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) in 1988. State record precipitation for this date is 8.00 inches at Theilman (Wabasha County) in 1978; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Perhaps the warmest ever start to the month of July occurred in 1911, when many observers reported temperatures of 100°F or higher. Even Itasca State Park reported an afternoon temperature of 100°F. The nighttime temperatures remained in the 70s as well.

July 1, 1969 was sweater weather form many Minnesota citizens. In northern and central counties morning temperatures dropped into the 30s F, while as far south as Preston it fell to just 40 degrees F. Many areas saw daytime highs only make it into the 60s F as well.

June 30 to July 1, 1978 brought damaging flash flooding to many eastern sections of the state. Over a 14-hour period 6-9 inches of rain fell over broad areas of southeastern Minnesota. Red Wing and Theilman reported a storm total of 10 inches. This storm began a very wet month of July in 1978.

Outlook Mostly sunny with near normal temperatures through the weekend and on July 4th. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms by next Tuesday. Temperatures will also climb to above normal values by the middle of next week.

Storminess Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 08, 2016 By Mark Seeley

July 5th (Tuesday) brought severe thunderstorms to many parts of the state, with strong winds and large hail. There were reports of short-lived tornadoes in Swift and Wabasha Counties. At least 8 counties reported large hail (1 diameter or greater), and near Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) hail stones up to 3 in diameter were observed. In addition 17 counties reported strong winds (60-80 mph), and some associated damage.

Rainfall amounts from these storms were highly variable, with the largest amounts reported across a swath from west-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities Metro Area, and southeastern counties. Many observers recorded over 2 inches, and some reported new record daily amounts for July 5th, including: 4.51 at Morris, 2.14 at Artichoke Lake, and 1.77 at Moose Lake. Then on the July 6th Waseca reported a record 3.03 inches of rain, and on July 7th Park Rapids reported a new record daily rainfall of 2.11 inches. In many cases these record or near-record rainfalls were confined to narrow geographic areas by the size of the thunderstorm cells and their speed of movement.

Just before the onset of the storms dew points spiked into the 70s F pushing Heat Index values into the mid-90s F to low 100s F. More periodic high dew point spells are likely for the rest of the month.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Super Typhoon Nepartak in the Western Pacific Ocean brought high winds, high seas, and heavy rains to Taiwan on Thursday and Friday of this week. It packed winds up to 155 mph and delivered rainfalls of 6 inches or greater. Eastern China was bracing for heavy rainfall this weekend.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office will provide rail forecasts for the Eurotunnel train service that connects the UK with France. These forecasts will include storm and flood risk to operations of the trains which average 57,000 passengers daily.

NOAA reports that Alaska just concluded its 9th warmest June in history. This follows a consistent pattern of warmer than normal months during 2016. The first 6 months of 2016 are warmer than any other year in Alaska history, averaging about 9F warmer than normal.

NOAA will host a webinar next week on Thursday, July 14, 2016 at 1:00pm ET to present a discussion of how they are using unmanned aircraft and watercraft to make critical measurements of the atmosphere and oceans. You can find more information and register here.

MPR listener question I heard you talk about the famous July 1936 Heat Wave earlier this week on Tom Webers program. When was the peak of that Heat Wave? My grandpa said they had a number of cows die that month.

Answer The peak of the Heat Wave was over July 6-15. There was no respite from the heat. In the Twin Cities alone there were over 175 deaths attributed to heat, and statewide it is estimated between 760-900 people lost their lives. The casualty rate among farm livestock was not formally estimated but must have been in the hundreds at least.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 8th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

Past Weather Features July 8, 1936 was the hottest in state history, with over 35 communities reporting record- setting high temperatures above 100F. Little relief from the heat came until July 18th when daytime temperatures cooled into the 80s F.

July 8, 1997 brought cool, dry Canadian air to the state, a respite from the heat of earlier in the month. Many observers reported morning lows in the 30s and 40s F. It was 41F in Wabasha County (Theilman). Afternoon highs remained in the 60s and 70s F.

Repeated thunderstorms brought flash flooding to many parts of the state over July 7- 10, 2002. Many areas of western and central Minnesota received 4-5 inches of rain. Rothsay (Wilkin County) reported 7.56 inches and there were many flooded county roads.

Outlook Nice day Saturday with near cooler than normal temperatures. Increasing clouds on Sunday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the north Continued chance for showers Monday and near normal temperatures. Warming trend later in the week with chances for widely scattered showers.

Storminess Continues Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 15, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Strong thunderstorms moved over portions of northern and central Minnesota during the past week, especially on July 11-12 (Mon-Tue). Rainfall totals from 5-7 inches occurred over portions of 10 central Minnesota counties, causing widespread flash flooding. Tornadoes caused some damage to homes, businesses, and farms in Meeker and Stearns Counties. Large hail was reported in 4 Minnesota Counties, the largest, 2.5 inch diameter near Mora.

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office the storm on July 11-12 was the largest mega-rain event since the Duluth flood of June 19-20, 2012. A mega-rain event is classified as a six-inch rainfall that covers at least 1,000 square miles, with a central core value of at least 8 inches. There have been only 13 such storms documented in Minnesota history, but 6 of these have occurred since 2002. You can read more about this week’s storms at the MN State Climatology Office.

The largest rainfall reported from the storm this week was 9.34 inches at Cloverton in Pine County. Several climate observers reported a new daily rainfall amount for July 11th, including:

7.51 Inches at Rice (Benton County) 6.38 inches at Brainerd airport (Crow Wing County) 6.36 inches at Bruno (Pine County) 5.50 inches at Moose Lake (Carlton County) 2.93 inches at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) 2.63 inches at Saint Cloud (Stearns County) 2.27 inches at Duluth (St Louis County) tied record from 1914 2.00 inches at Wheaton (Traverse County)

With the large amount of rainfall, flood warnings were still being issued at the end of the week for parts of Pine, Aitkin, Kanabec, and Crow Wing Counties. Many areas of the state have already seen 5-7 inches of rainfall in July and the month is barely half over.

Weekly Weather Potpourri According to a press release from NOAA this week, June of 2016 was the warmest of record for the contiguous 48 states since records began in 1895. It surpassed the record warmest June of 1933. Minnesota was warm in June, but only modestly, ranking 31st warmest in 122 years.

NOAA also recently released an assessment of billion-dollar weather-related disasters so far this year across the USA. There have been eight. Dominated by flooding, wind, and hail events, most of the insured losses have been in the Southern Plains or Southeastern states so far. You can find an assessment at the NOAA web site.

An interesting paper this week from the University of Oxford examines the famous Heat Wave of August 2003 in Europe and how much of it might be attributed to anthropogenic causes. They even differentiate the death tolls in France and the United Kingdom based on anthropogenic factors.

MPR listener question What is the average number of days with thunderstorms in Minnesota and how does this number compare with other states?

Answer The average number of days with thunderstorms each year varies across Minnesota, from about 30 days in northern counties to over 40 days for those counties along the Iowa border. This is considerably more than west coast states and the northeastern states, but less than most southern states. The state with the largest number of annual thunderstorm days is Florida, where some central counties record 100 days with thunderstorms each year. This feature is the result of convergence of the sea breezes coming off both the east and west coasts, which induces lift in the warm, humid air and development of cumulonimbus clouds. The second highest frequency of thunderstorm days is found in the Rocky Mountain Front Range through portions of Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico. In this region, topography plays an important role and helps produce 60-70 days with thunderstorms each year.

Twin Cities Almanac for July 15th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 65 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 15th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 102 degrees F in 1988 and again in 1974; lowest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature is 49 degrees F in 1912; highest daily minimum temperature of 79 degrees F in 1988; record precipitation of 1.87 inches in 1907; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for July 15th is 59 degrees F, with a maximum of 77 degrees F in 1988 and a minimum of 43 degrees F in 1920.

All-time state records for July 15th The state record high temperature for this date is 112 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is 30 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1930. State record precipitation for this date is 7.17 inches at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1916; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Words of the Week: Sulfurous readings This terminology is intended to evoke an image of heat and humidity like that found in natural geothermal sulfur springs used at some health spas. Meteorologists may include such terminology in their forecast discussions, particularly when heat and humidity are expected to prevail for long periods of time, producing Heat Index values of 100 degrees F or greater. Though many people relish an exposure of several minutes to such conditions in a health spa, exposure to this type of outdoor climate for hours and days is not healthy for anybody.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms brought 2-5 inches of rain to many parts of southern Minnesota over July 14-15, 1916. In addition, large hail ruined many crop fields in southern Minnesota.

On a statewide basis the hottest July 15th in history occurred in 1931. At least 35 Minnesota cities reported afternoon temperatures of 100F or higher. The temperature at Winona that day never dipped below 80F.

July 15, 1995 brought an end to a 3-day Heat Wave that caused widespread turkey losses in the state, as hundreds of thousands of birds died of heat stress. This was also the end of the lethal Chicago Heat Wave that killed over 600 people there.

Outlook Near normal temperatures over the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later on Saturday and into Sunday. Some storms could be severe. Drier on Monday and Tuesday, then a warming trend with a several consecutive days bringing high Heat Index values.

WeatherTalk to return soon Minnesota WeatherTalk, July 22, 2016 By Mark Seeley

WeatherTalk is currently on hiatus. Mark Seeley will send the next WeatherTalk later this summer. Thank you!

July Climate Summary and First Rains of August Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 05, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Average temperatures for July from observers around the state were very close to normal, commonly about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above normal. The hottest period during the month was over July 20-22 when daily Heat Index values soared above 100°F in several locations. The Twin Cities reported the highest temperature for the state on the 22nd with a reading of 97°F. The lowest temperature for the month was just 35°F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 1st. For the first 7 months of 2016 temperatures have consistently been warmer than normal in Minnesota, placing this period as the 5th warmest in state history.

The monthly total rainfall was above normal for most places in the state, except for a few northern communities which were drier than normal. Many climate observers reported total monthly rainfall that was 2-3 times normal, and on a statewide basis it was the 4th wettest July in history and wettest since 1993. For many communities it was the wettest July in history, including: 11.65 inches at Brainerd 10.02 inches at Mora 13.44 inches at Garrison 11.14 inches at Longville 9.92 inches at Bruno 9.88 inches at Morris 9.12 inches at St James

Severe weather plagued the state during the month on several occasions: On the 5th severe thunderstorms move across the central part of the state, bringing 2-4 inch rains along with 60-70 mph winds; east-central Minnesota counties were hit with 5-9 inches of rain over the 11th and 12th, producing widespread flash flooding, especially in Pine County. Three tornadoes were reported across Meeker and Stearns Counties. Over July 19-20 winds up to 70 mph along with large hail passed over sections of the northern Red River Valley and then caused some tree damage and power outages in Beltrami County. And finally, overnight thunderstorms crossed northern counties on July 20-21 knocking down trees and powerlines, as a wide swath "derecho' caused damage from the Brainerd Lakes area into the BWCA. Many areas reported winds over 75 mph.

August 4th brought the first significant widespread rains of the month, unfortunately along with some damaging winds through central Minnesota counties. Many observers in northern Minnesota and around the Twin Cities Metro Area reported 1-2 inches of rain from these thunderstorms. Some climate stations reported new record daily values of rainfall for the date, including:

2.50 inches at Winsted 2.48 inches at Leech Lake 2.30 inches at Thief River Falls 2.07 inches at Winona

Quiet weather should prevail until next Tuesday and Wednesday when there will be another chance for thunderstorms.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The American Meteorological Society has released the "State of the Climate in 2015" report. It makes for some interesting reading, and links many of the observed climate anomalies and events to climate change. And of course, El Nino left its fingerprint on climate behavior during the year as well.

Minnesota FarmFest has been underway this week in Redwood County, where thousands have gathered to showcase what's new and exemplary in agriculture. The weather was uncomfortable the first few days with Heat Index values hovering in the mid to upper 90s °F during the day. This was brought to an end on Thursday (Aug 4) by strong thunderstorms which brought up to an inch of rain to the area, along with wind gusts up to 50 mph.

With the Summer Olympic Games opening this week in Rio, the BBC Weather Centre offers a guide to how the various sports venues may be affected by the weather in Brazil. This may be of interest to readers as they watch competitions in their favorite sports.

Tropical Storm Earl was bringing heavy rains to portions of Mexico west of the Yucatan Peninsula this week. It packed winds over 50 mph, but the real threat came from persist heavy rains.

I will be broadcasting the Minnesota Weather Quiz on MPR with Tom Weber again this year from Carousel Park at the State Fair. We are scheduled for the morning of September 2, 2016. Please stop by if you are in the area. We will be giving out prizes again.

MPR listener question With all the heat, humidity, and storms so far this summer, I was wondering what the record high daily temperature and rainfall for the month of August is?

Answer For the Twin Cities the August records are 103°F on August 15, 1936, and 7.28 inches of rainfall on August 30, 1977 (State Fair Record). On a statewide basis the records are 110°F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) on August 10, 1947 and at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on August 1, 1988, and 15.10 inches of rainfall on August 19, 2007 at Hokah (Houston County).

Twin Cities Almanac for August 5th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 63 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 5th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 100 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature is 48 degrees F in 1994; highest daily minimum temperature of 78 degrees F in 1947; record precipitation of 1.88 inches in 1898; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 5th is 60 degrees F, with a maximum of 79 degrees F in 2001 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1910.

All-time state records for August 5th The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1947. The state record low temperature for this date is 31 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) in 1994. State record precipitation for this date is 4.75 inches at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1945; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Widespread thunderstorms brought heavy rain to the state over August 5-7, 1898. Hardest hit areas were in western and central counties where many farm fields were flooded, and small grain harvests were ruined in some areas. Many observers reported 3–4-inch amounts of rainfall.

August 5, 1947 was the hottest in history with 15 Minnesota communities reporting afternoon highs of 100°F or higher. Dew points were also high that day producing Heat Index values that ranged from 103°F to 113°F.

August 5, 1994 brought very cold weather to the state, especially to those camping in northern Minnesota, where lows dropped into the 30s F. It was 31 degrees F at Tower and Brimson, and just 35 degrees F at Cotton. As far south as Byron (Olmsted County0 the morning low dropped to just 39 degrees F.

Outlook Mostly sunny and pleasant with near normal temperatures for Saturday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness with a warming trend for next Tuesday through Thursday, and a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

WeatherTalk to return on September 2 Minnesota WeatherTalk, August 12, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Thanks for being a WeatherTalk reader!

Climate Summary for August 2016 Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 02, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Average temperatures for August from observers around the state were generally warmer than normal by 1 to 2 degrees F. The hottest periods during the month were over the first ten days, when daily Heat Index values soared above 100°F in several locations. Marshall (Lyon County) reported the highest temperature for the state on the 10th with a reading of 96°F. The lowest temperature for the month was just 37°F at International Falls on the 21st. For the first 8 months of 2016 temperatures have consistently been warmer than normal in Minnesota, placing this period as the 6th warmest in state history.

The monthly total rainfall was above normal for most places in the state, except for a few isolated pockets of dryness. Many climate observers reported total monthly rainfall that was 2-3 times normal, and on a statewide basis it was the 3rd wettest August in history and wettest since 1980. For many communities it was a near-record or record wet August. Some examples include:

11.85 inches at Red Wing 11.82 inches at Theilman (2nd wettest) 11.70 inches at Waseca (2nd wettest) 11.37 inches at Redwood Falls 9.70 inches at Chanhassen 8.96 inches at Twin Valley 8.74 inches at downtown St Paul 9.90 inches at University of Minnesota St Paul Campus 7.86 inches at Kabetogama 9.66 inches at Faribault (4th wettest) 10.21 inches at Milan (2nd wettest) 10.23 inches at Wabasha (2nd wettest) 8.36 inches at St Cloud (2nd wettest) 7.82 inches at MSP (6th wettest)

Severe weather plagued the state during the month on several occasions: Over August 10-11 severe thunderstorms moved across the west-central part of the state, bringing 4- 7 inch rains to the Willmar-Olivia area, and later in the day to Wabasha County. Then over August 23-24 heavy rains fell across portions of southeastern Minnesota delivering 2–3-inch amounts, and nearly 8.5 inches south of the border in Decorah, Iowa. Then over August 27-28 heavy rains, strong winds, and some tornadoes were reported in Polk and Norman Counties of northwestern Minnesota. Some farm buildings were damaged in Norman County.

With the added rainfall from August, following a wet July, this summer season (June- August) now ranks as the 4th wettest in state history, as the average 3-month rainfall for the state was just shy of 16 inches. For the Twin Cities this has been the 8th wettest summer in history with a total rainfall of 17.40 inches.

Weekly Weather Potpourri I will be broadcasting the MPR State Fair Weather Quiz with Tom Weber from the Minnesota State Fair on Friday morning at 11am (Sept 2). This year I had help from Greg Spoden, Pete Boulay, and Kenny Blumenfeld of the DNR-State Climatology Office in crafting the questions for the quiz. If you cannot listen to the broadcast you can find the quiz and take it for yourself at the MPR web site.

Hurricane Hermine was expected to bring high winds and heavy rains to Florida and then up the Atlantic coast states over Friday through Saturday. In the western Pacific Ocean Typhoon Namtheun was expected to bring heavy rains to southern Japan this weekend, while in the Central Pacific Ocean Hurricane Lester was expected to bring heavy rains and strong winds to parts of Hawaii.

There is a fascinating article on the NPR web site by Christopher Joyce about how the frigatebird uses clouds and air currents to stay aloft above the world's oceans for weeks at a time. They also fly at unusually high altitudes, above 12,000 feet. You can read more at the NPR web site.

MPR listener question Normally by state fair time my ragweed allergies are quite bad. Usually they start up right around August 15 when the ragweed blooms. However, this year my allergies are quite mild, and it is already September. Has the wet summer affected the ragweed in some way? or is the more frequent rain simply taking more pollen out of the air?

Answer I would guess that both the frequency of rain over the past month, as well as the higher dew points (more moisture in the air) have somewhat suppressed the ragweed pollen count which according to the Twin Cities monitoring samples has been in the low to moderate category most days. Atmospheric moisture in both liquid form and vapor form (relative humidity) has been shown to keep less ragweed pollen from becoming airborne.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 2nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 77 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 58 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 2nd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 97 degrees F in 1937; lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1952; lowest daily minimum temperature is 42 degrees F in 1974; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 degrees F in 1953; record precipitation of 1.97 inches in 2000; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 2nd is 56 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1997 and a minimum of 29 degrees F in 1974.

All-time state records for September 2nd The state record high temperature for this date is 103 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1929. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1935. State record precipitation for this date is 5.91 inches at Halstad (Norman County) in 1957; and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features The hottest September 2nd in state history was in 1929. Over 50 Minnesota communities reported daytime highs in the 90s F, and in the west Wheaton, Montevideo, and Beardsley surpassed 100 degrees F.

September 1-2, 1937 brought heavy thunderstorms across northern Minnesota communities which reported from 3 to 5 inches of rain. There was widespread flooding in both the Duluth and Grand Rapids areas.

Outlook Generally pleasant with near normal temperatures to start the weekend. Warmer than normal with Increasing clouds later on Sunday and into Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, heavy in places. Continued chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping back to near normal for this time of year.

Wet Start to September Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 09, 2016 By Mark Seeley

After a wetter than normal July and August, September is following trend and beginning wetter than normal for many areas of the state thanks in large part to some strong thunderstorms that crossed the state over September 4-7. Several areas of the state have reported over 2 inches of rainfall so far this month. Many climate stations are already reporting rainfall totals which are near the monthly average for September, and some locations have already surpassed the monthly normal rainfall values. A partial list of these locations:

Mabel (Fillmore County) 5.54" Caledonia (Houston County) 4.69" Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 4.14" Spring Grove (Houston County) 4.03" Lanesboro (Fillmore County) 3.40" Worthington (Nobles County) 2.86" Wright (Carlton County) 3.93" Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 2.90" Ottertail (Otter Tail County) 2.52" Eveleth (St Lous County) 3.20" Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) 3.52" Ada (Norman County) 2.97" Roseau (Roseau County) 2.65"

Some of these thunderstorms produced new daily rainfall records for many observers. Some of these new record values included: For September 5th: 1.03" at Amboy, 1.92" at Redwood Falls, 2.65" at Roseau, 1.41" at Floodwood, 2.02" at Argyle, 1.42" at Isabella, and 1.37" at Thief River Falls. For September 6th: 2.78" at Pokegama Dam, 1.96" at Eveleth, and 0.89" at Grand Portage For September 7th: 4.41" at Caledonia, 2.95" at Harmony, 3.35" at Spring Valley, 2.00" at Theilman, 1.47" at Grand Rapids, 1.27" at Zumbrota, 1.20" at Owatonna, 3.89" at Spring Grove, and 2.32" at Houston.

In addition, the thunderstorms on the evening of September 7th produced a tornado caused that caused some damage at Camp Ripley (Morrison County) The State Climatology Office wrote a report about this.

Thankfully the weather looks to be cooler and drier for much of next week.

Weather Associated with the Record State Fair Attendance The12-day run of the Minnesota State Fair (August 25-September 5) set a new attendance record this year with 1,943,719. Three dates brought record daily attendance: Friday, August 26; Friday, September 2nd; and Saturday, September 3rd (all-time daily attendance record set with 260,374). So, what was the weather like, and did it help promote this record attendance? Yes, likely. Here is the daily attendance and associated weather description for each day of the State Fair (* denotes record attendance for the day): Thursday, August 25, 111,902, cooler than normal and breezy Friday, August 26, 141,023*, cooler than normal, with low relative humidity Saturday, August 27, 180,567, cloudy and humid day Sunday, August 28, 177,906, warm and humid day, afternoon temperatures in the mid- 80s F Monday, August 29, 119,522, warm and humid with Heat Index near 90F, and rain at night Tuesday, August 30, 126,354, early morning rain, cloudy Wednesday, August 31, 118,042, near normal weather, partly cloudy Thursday, September 1, 133,773, near normal weather Friday, September 2, 182,926*, very sunny, with low relative humidity, pleasant temperatures Saturday, September 3, 260,374*, sunny, breezy, and low relative humidity Sunday, September 4, 233,303, cloudy and breezy Monday, September 5, 158,027, early morning rain, very humid, warm and cloudy

Weekly Weather Potpourri As a follow up to the dialogue we had last week during the broadcast of the MPR State Fair Weather Quiz, I found reference to the two modern era Grandstand Shows that were washed out by wet weather. The first one was the concert by Mac Davis on August 30, 1977 when over 4 inches of rain fell at the Fairgrounds, the 2nd one was the evening of August 26, 1982 when a half inch of wind-whipped rain fell, getting all of the sound equipment wet and canceling the Willie Nelson concert. My wife Cindy vividly remembered that one as we had tickets to attend.

In a NOAA press release earlier this week scientists offered an assessment of the devastating floods in Louisiana during August. Over August 11-17 many areas around Baton Rouge reported over 20 inches of rainfall, setting records for the most rain ever. Widespread flooding resulted in over 60,000 homes being damaged, 30,000 people being evacuated, and the loss of 13 lives. The scientific assessment of this event concluded that climate change likely helped magnify the atmospheric conditions that produced such rainfalls.

NOAA also recently announced a new climate data search tool that simply uses your zip code. You can retrieve daily climate data for any historically measured time period by going to the Climate Data Online Search Page. Specific instructions for doing this can be found at the NOAA Climate web site.

The BBC reported this week on a new study of weather-related pain that is making use of a cell phone app. Over 9000 people have signed up for this study in the United Kingdom which will examine the correlations between pain and various weather conditions and patterns. They hope to learn more about what types of weather trigger different kinds of pain.

MPR listener question I am writing to you from rural Fillmore County where I have farmed since 1957. So far this month we have recorded about 5 inches of rain. Over coffee this morning we wondered what has been the wettest September in history for our area of the state, over 10 inches perhaps?

Answer The wettest September for Fillmore County was in 1965. Numerous heavy thunderstorms delivered over 10 inches of rain to many communities, including 13.43" at Harmony, 12.74" at Preston, and 10.87" at Lanesboro. The most recent wet September was in 2010 when Rushford received 10.42 inches. That same year the all- time state record wettest September was reported from Zumbrota (Goodhue County), where 14.57" of rain fell.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 9th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 9th

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1929; lowest daily minimum temperature is 38 degrees F in 1883; highest daily minimum temperature of 76 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 1.79 inches in 1900; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 9th is 55 degrees F, with a maximum of 75 degrees F in 1964 and a minimum of 33 degrees F in 1976.

All-time state records for September 9th

The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1931. The state record low temperature for this date is 19 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2006. State record precipitation for this date is 4.75 inches at Gunflint Lake (Cook County) in 1977 and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rains and widespread flash flooding to many parts of the state over September 8-11, 1900. Many climate stations reported from 4 to 7 inches of rain, along with strong winds. Bird Island reported nearly 8 inches. Farmers could not resume harvesting crops for nearly two weeks.

A hard freeze ended the growing season for many parts of northwester Minnesota on September 9, 1917. Low temperatures ranged from 22F to 30F across many parts of the Red River Valley, setting record early dates for frost.

By far the warmest September 9th in state history was in 1931. Only Grand Marais Harbor and Two Harbors along the Lake Superior shoreline failed to reach the 90F temperature mark. Over 35 communities reported a daytime high of 100F or greater. Temperatures did not fall to near seasonal normals until September 15th that year.

Outlook Slightly cooler than normal temperatures throughout the weekend under mostly sunny skies. There will be a chance for showers late on Monday into early Tuesday. Cooler and drier the rest of next week.

A Taste of Autumn Weather the Second Full Week of September Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 16, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The first taste of autumn weather appeared this week with low relative humidity and overnight temperatures in the 30s and 40s F, especially over September 13-15. Many communities in western and northern Minnesota reported overnight lows in the 30s F and a number of places reported frosts, including:

31°F at Cass Lake (Cass County) 29°F at Brimson (St Louis County) 31°F at Cotton (St Louis County) 29°F at Embarrass (St Louis County) 32°F at Orr (St Louis County) 30°F at Hibbing (St Louis County)

It was 39°F as far south as Lake Wilson (Murray County).

Humidity exhibited a roller coaster pattern this week with readings from 70 to 90 percent earlier in the week, falling off to 20 to 30 percent during the middle of the week. The cooler and drier air was having its effects on native vegetation as the autumn color changes were beginning to appear more abundantly in northern and western counties. Remember you can track fall color changes to help schedule any leaf peeping trips you may plan by going to the MN-DNR Fall Color Finder Web Site.

More heavy doses of rain Thursday, September 15 brought some widespread rains to many parts of the state. Lighter amounts less than half an inch fell in many northern areas, but a number of observers in central and southern Minnesota reported from half an inch to over 1 inch of rainfall. A few southern Minnesota communities reported over 2 inches, and some reported record rainfall amounts for the date, including, New Prague with 1.20 inches, Fairmont with 2.26 inches, and Luverne with 2.32 inches. Sioux Falls, SD reported a new record 3.61 inches for September 15th.

Climate Adaptation: Transforming Awareness into Action I will be offering a one-night program on this topic through the University of Minnesota College of Continuing Education's LearningLife Program on October 5th at 630 pm on the St Paul Campus. If you are interested about enrollment you can find out more at the LearningLife web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri

The National Snow and Ice Center reported this week that the Arctic Sea Ice reached its minimum extent for the season on September 10th, covering an area of only 1.6 million square miles, statistically tied with 2007 as the 2nd lowest of the satellite record. September 17, 2012 remains the lowest measured Arctic sea ice extent at 1.31 million square miles. You can read more about this at the Science Daily web site.

Earlier this week Super Typhoon Meranti caused widespread damage to Taiwan and brought heavy rains to portions of China. It was one of the largest and strongest typhoons ever measured with wind speeds up to 190 mph, rainfall measurements over 15 inches, and wave heights close to 50 feet. Central pressure dropped to 890 mb, or 26.28 inches. Following Meranti is Typhoon Malakas which is forecasted to pass over northern Taiwan this weekend, with wind speeds near 130 mph and wave heights of 35 to 40 feet.

NASA scientists say that a La Nina episode is now unlikely to develop in late 2016 and that Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures may hover around normal for the remainder of the year. This will have implications for the winter season outlook, slated to be released next month, covering the November through January period.

MPR listener question Someone mentioned the possible snow season in Minnesota starts on September 14th. How is that figured and which places have had snow that early?

Answer The start date of the possible snow season in Minnesota is based on the measurement of 0.3 inches at International Falls on September 14, 1964, the earliest date for measurable snow in the state climate data base. Also, on that date communities in Kittson, Roseau, Lake of the Woods, St Louis, Cook, and Lake Counties reported traces of snowfall. A similar storm occurred on September 15, 1916 delivering 0.2 inches at

Warroad and a trace amount in several other places, including the Twin Cities. In the Pioneer Era climate records, the Twin Cities reported snowfall on September 18, 1863 (amount unknown) and September 23, 1868 (0.2"). So, it is possible, but not of the current models show possibilities for snowfall anywhere in the state the rest of this month.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 16th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 16th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 1955; lowest daily maximum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1916; lowest daily minimum temperature is 38 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1955; record precipitation of 1.97 inches in 1900; and no snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 16th is 49 degrees F, with a maximum of 71 degrees F in 1997 and a minimum of 29 degrees F in 1959.

All-time state records for September 16th The state record high temperature for this date is 101 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1891. The state record low temperature for this date is 17 degrees F at Karlstad (Kittson County) in 1973. State record precipitation for this date is 7.07 inches at Red Wing (Goodhue County) in 1992 and no measurable snowfall has occurred on this date.

Past Weather Features The hottest September 16th in western Minnesota occurred in 1891 when observers there reported daytime temperatures in the 90s F. It reached 101 degrees F at Montevideo (the state record). The mid-September heat wave lasted from the 16th to the 23rd, one of the longest ever for the month.

Another mid-September heat wave prevailed in 1955, lasting from the 16th to the 19th. Over 30 climate stations set daytime maximum temperature records with readings in the 90s F. For some nighttime lows remained in the 70s F.

September 16-20, 1973 brought widespread frosts to many parts of the state. Low temperatures in the 20s F ended the gardening and growing season as far south as Wabasha County. Much of the corn was not yet mature and suffered damage.

September 16-18, 1992 brought heavy rains to many areas of the state, delaying the harvest season for corn. Portions of southeastern Minnesota reported over 6 inches of rain. Ten years ago, September 16, 2006 a rapidly formed and relatively short-live tornado struck near Rogers, MN causing damage to many homes and killing a 10-year old girl.

Outlook Mostly sunny weekend, with an uptick in temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Increasing chance for showers late Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures near seasonal normals.

More heavy rain and flooding Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 23, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Thunderstorms, some severe, brought heavy rainfall again to portions of central and southern Minnesota over September 21-22 (Wed-Thu) this week. Many observers reported from 1 to 2 inches, and several places reported new record daily amounts up to 5 to 8 inches. Dew points spiked in the low 70s F at a number of locations just ahead of the storm indicating that there was a very high-water vapor content. Preliminary data suggest that a new statewide record daily rainfall occurred on September 22nd (old record 4.84 inches at Cambridge in 1968), but the final say on the new record will come from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Many communities reported flash flooding, including washed out roads and culverts, and some flooded basements.

Some of the new record daily amounts of rainfall included: 7.64" at Waseca 5.15" at Wells 4.11" at Rochester 4.06" at Bricelyn 3.81" at Preston 3.74" at Spring Grove 3.70" at Zumbrota, Grand Meadow, and Spring Valley 3.09" at Winnebago 3.08" at Theilman 2.75" at La Crescent 2.15" at Stillwater 2.10" at Winona Dam 2.06" at Kimball

Many other communities with shorter climate records reported even greater amounts of rainfall, including: 5.34" at Lanesboro 5.11" at Eau Claire, WI 4.65" at Champlin 4.15" at Owatonna 8.11" at Maple Grove 5.12" at Byron.

The added rainfall this week pushed the total for the month of September to near record or new record values for a number of climate stations in southern Minnesota, including: 13.69" at Mabel (Fillmore County) 13.89" at Spring Grove (Houston County) 10.37" at Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 10.56” at Rushford (Fillmore County)

11.40" at Hokah (Houston County) 13.03" at Caledonia (Houston County) 14.56" at Waseca (Waseca County)

This wet September continues a trend toward above normal precipitation. Some climate stations in Minnesota have already received over 40 inches of precipitation for the year. Further at least ten climate stations are on a pace to set a new record wet year, including St James with 40.59 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and Waseca with 48.68 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and over three months to go in 2016! It is also likely that the all-time state record wettest single year, 53.52 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1991 will be broken before the end of this year.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earlier this week NOAA scientists reported that the Northwest Passage was ice-free again at the end of the summer, allowing for ship traffic to pass from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic passing through Arctic Canada. For the first time a luxury cruise ship, Crystal Serenity, was making the journey this autumn from Alaska to New York City via the Northwest Passage.

The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, available online, now has a procedure to help communities assess their vulnerabilities to climate change, and select from optional strategies to make themselves more resilient. Even local schools and businesses might want to consider looking at this toolkit.

The United Kingdom Met Office announced this week that for the second consecutive year they will consult the public to name storms during the coming winter season. This will apply only to storms which bring a serious threat of precipitation or strong winds. They have found that weather warnings are better received by the public if the storms are given names.

The World Meteorological Organization published for the first time this week a study of lightning around the world. Two of the extreme events which they noted were the longest stroke of lightning every detected, nearly 200 miles across the sky of Oklahoma in 2007; and the longest continuous flash of lightning, 7.74 seconds which occurred over southern France in 2012.

MPR listener question It has certainly been a turbulent month of September. The tornado reported at Camp Ripley in central Minnesota on September 7th, made some of us wonder how often do tornadoes visit Minnesota during the month of September? It seems pretty rare.

Answer Indeed, historically less than 5 percent of our annual tornadoes in Minnesota occur during the month of September. In 1894 8 tornadoes were reported during September, and more recently in 2005 6 tornadoes were reported during September. In 2012 there were 4 tornadoes reported as late as November 10th, exceptionally rare for our climate. In Minnesota history there have been no tornadoes reported in the months of December, January, and February.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 23rd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 23rd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees F in 1891 and 1937; lowest daily maximum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1965; lowest daily minimum temperature is 30 degrees F in 1983; highest daily minimum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1930; record precipitation of 1.98 inches in 2010; and a trace of snow fell on this date in 1928.

Average dew point for September 23rd is 43 degrees F, with a maximum of 73 degrees F in 1945 and a minimum of 20 degrees F in 1928.

All-time state records for September 23rd The state record high temperature for this date is 99 degrees F at Granite Falls (Chippewa County) in 1892. The state record low temperature for this date is 14 degrees F at Goodridge (Pennington County) in 2012. State record precipitation for this date is 9.48 inches at Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2010; and record snowfall is 2.0 inches at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1942.

Past Weather Features A short-lived Heat Wave brought temperatures of 90 degrees F or higher to many communities around the state on September 23, 1892. Two days later some areas reported frost.

Traces of snow were reported in northern Minnesota on this date in 1985.

Widespread freezing temperatures prevailed around Minnesota on September 23, 1995. Many observers reported morning lows in the 20s F. Tower fell as low as 16 degrees F. As far south as Preston it was 29 degrees F.

Thunderstorms brought widespread flash flooding to portions of southern Minnesota over September 22-23, 2010. Many observers reported all-time rainfall records in the range of 8 to 11 inches. There were widespread reports of flooded highways and basements. The Mississippi River rose above flood stage at St Paul a week later, and exceptionally rare occurrence for the month of September.

Outlook Warmer than normal with chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Continued chance for showers Sunday, but with cooler temperatures. Generally cooler than normal early next week with chances for scattered showers. Warmer by next Thursday and Friday.

Preliminary climate summary for September Minnesota WeatherTalk, September 29, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Like most months of 2016 September was warmer than normal. Most observers report a mean monthly temperature that is 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than normal. On a statewide basis September of 2016 will be among the 15 percent warmest in history back to 1895. This follows a trend towards warm Septembers, as last year produced the warmest September in state history, while 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2013 were among the warmest ten Septembers in history as well. Extreme values of temperature for the month were 94 degrees F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) on the 21st and just 29 degrees F at several locations in northern Minnesota on the 14th.

The month of September was moderately wetter than normal in the north and very much wetter than normal in southern Minnesota, where some observers reported rainfall that was 4X or 5X times normal. Most observers reported rainfall on at least half of the days of the month. Some of the rains came in heavy thunderstorms which produced well over 100 daily rainfall records in the Minnesota observation network during the month, including 7.64 inches at Waseca on the 22nd which was a new statewide record for the date.

Some observers reported their wettest September in history. Among these locations were: Albert Lea 10.31 inches Lanesboro 12.75 inches Caledonia 13.13 inches Spring Valley 10.44 inches Hokah 11.54 inches La Crescent 10.33 inches Waseca 14.80 inches Spring Grove 13.89 inches Chatfield 12.55 inches

Overall on a statewide basis it was the 10th wettest September in history back to 1895. The heaviest rains over September 21-22 caused flash flooding in many areas, and an EF-1 tornado struck Camp Ripley on September 7th causing some damages to structures and cars (a somewhat rare event). Climate Adaptation: Transforming Awareness into Action:

Climate Adaptation Discussion I will be offering a one-night program on this topic through the University of Minnesota College of Continuing Education's LearningLife Program on October 5th at 6:30 pm on the St Paul Campus. If you are interested about enrollment you can find out more at the LearningLife web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA scientists offer an interesting look at the climatology of first seasonal snowfalls. Naturally the higher elevations in the western states are likely to have seen some this month, but many areas of the Northern Plains and Northern Great Lakes can see first snowfalls during the month of October.

The United Kingdom Met Office reported this week that September of 2016 will likely be the 2nd or 3rd warmest since countrywide record keeping began in 1910. The warmest day of the year occurred there (at Gravesend in Kent) when 94 degrees F was reported on September 13th.

Tropical Storm Chaba was churning in the Western Pacific Ocean and was expected to develop into a typhoon over the weekend. It will strengthen and heat for southern Japan next week, perhaps bringing high winds, large waves, and intense rainfall by the middle of next week.

MPR listener question You mentioned last week that Waseca is on a pace to set a new annual precipitation record for Minnesota. What other locations might set a new annual precipitation record during this extraordinary wet year of 2016?

Answer Using the year-to-date precipitation totals for 2016 so far, there are several communities that are within 6 inches of setting a new record for wettest year in history. Some of these are listed below with their year-to-date total precipitation in parenthesis:

Aitkin (35.79") Brainerd (33.65") Redwood Falls (38.06") Faribault (39.57") New Ulm (37.75") St James (44.28") St Peter (38.64") Waseca (49.11") Austin (37.79") Harmony (43.22") Preston (41.31") Rochester (37.37") Winona (38.51") Zumbrota (38.92")

With three months left in 2016, climate statistics show that average precipitation for those months totals in the range of 4-6 inches for most locations in the state. With normal precipitation, most of these communities will set new annual precipitation records this year, and Waseca could be the first stations ever to report over 54 inches for a year.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 30th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 65 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 30th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1897; lowest daily maximum temperature of 44 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily minimum temperature is 26 degrees F in 1939; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1878; record precipitation of 1.06 inches in 2007; and a record 0.1 inches of snow fell on this date in 1961.

Average dew point for September 30th is 43 degrees F, with a maximum of 66 degrees F in 1971 and a minimum of 18 degrees F in 1974.

All-time state records for September 30th The state record high temperature for this date is 93 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1897. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1930. State record precipitation for this date is 5.00 inches at Cook (St Louis County) in 1995; and record snowfall is 3.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1985.

Past Weather Features The end of September and beginning of October brought a mini heat wave to Minnesota in 1897. Most communities saw daytime temperatures climb into the 80s F, while 20 climate stations set new temperature records with highs in the 90s F.

Thunderstorms brought heavy rains and flash flooding over September 29-30, 1925. Many areas reported 2 to 4 inches of rain. Harvest delays lasted over a week.

Widespread frost was reported on September 30, 1930. Many observers reported morning lows in the 20s F, while sections of northern Minnesota fell into the teens F.

North-central and northeastern Minnesota communities recorded their first snowfall of the season over September 30 to October 1 of 1985. Observers there reported 2-8 inches of slushy snow. Thankfully, it did not last for more than a day or two.

Outlook Mostly sunny with above normal temperatures over the weekend and into next week. A chance for showers by Wednesday, then a drop in temperatures and showery the rest of the week.

Beautiful start to October Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 07, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Four of the first five days of the month brought either perfectly clear days or mostly sunny skies to the state with comfortable temperatures, light winds, and low relative humidity. Beautiful autumn weather prevailed and raised everyone’s spirits.

This pattern conforms to a study of Dr. Donald Baker at the University of Minnesota several decades ago that showed late September and early October had the highest frequency of clear skies of any period in the year. Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld of the DNR State Climatology Office has updated the autumn climate pattern associated with clear sky frequencies in Minnesota.

With the clear skies dominating early October, some of the overnight low temperatures have fallen into the 30s F. Such low temperatures were common this week in northern communities. Temperatures in the 30s F were also reported from Redwood Falls and Lake Wilson in southwestern Minnesota, and it was just 32°F one morning this week at Luverne (Rock County).

The first snowfalls of the season in Minnesota were also reported this week (Thursday night) from areas of St Louis County, including Embarrass with 0.5 inches, Orr with 0.7 inches, and Celina with 1.0 inches. Still other locations reported a trace of snow.

The 24th Annual Kuehnast Lecture, October 12th The24th Annual Kuehnast Endowment Lecture will take place on Wednesday, October 12th at 2pm in the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus Student Center Theater. Our topic this year is “Climate Change and the American Free Enterprise System.” Our speakers are Paul Douglas, former Twin Cities broadcast meteorologist and President of Aeris Weather; and Bob Inglis, former South Carolina Republican Congressman, and founder of RepublicEn.org, which is centered on conservative principles and a free- enterprise solution to climate change. This program is free and open to the public.

Hurricane Matthew hits Florida Strong Hurricane Matthew ran up along the Atlantic coast of Florida on Thursday and Friday this week as a Category 3 systems (winds 111-129 mph) and a storm surge of 7 to 11 feet, rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, and wave heights of 10 to 20 feet. It is likely to be the most destructive hurricane to hit Florida in decades, perhaps since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Undoubtedly there will be more headlines about Matthew this weekend.

Weekly Weather Potpourri The EPA announced recently a new web portal to help communities prepare for climate change through adaptation strategies and practices. It is tailored to the geography and climates of different regions of the country.

There is an interesting article this week by NOAA about climate change impacts on the New England lobster. Changes in water temperatures are having an effect on their population and range.

New research from Rutgers University scientists suggests that as climate continues to change, the combined warming of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere will produce the potential for more power tropical storms than Hurricane Sandy.

Earth& Space Science News featured an article this week about the big hurricane season in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during 2015. Record breaking levels of sea surface temperatures had a lot to do with it.

MPR listener question You remarked earlier on Morning Edition that some areas of northern Minnesota may have their first snow in October. Where specifically do you think this might happen?

Answer Well, the National Weather Service issued its first winter weather advisory of the season on Thursday night this week. Counties that might see their first autumn snowfall include Beltrami, Koochiching, St Louis, Lake of the Woods, Cook, Lake, and Clearwater. So, we’ll see if measurable amounts are recorded there.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 7th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 43 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 7th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 1997, 2003, and 2011; lowest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1915 and 2000; lowest daily minimum temperature is 25 degrees F in 1976; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1879; record precipitation of 0.98 inches in 1904; and a trace of snowfall was recorded in this date in several years, most recently in 2002.

Average dew point for October 7th is 41 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 2007 and a minimum of 14 degrees F in 2012.

All-time state records for October 7th The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1993. The state record low temperature for this date is 11 degrees F at Fort Ripley (Crow Wing County) in 1876. State record precipitation for this date is 3.50 inches at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1931; and record snowfall is 4.0 inches at Morris (Stevens County) in 1894.

Past Weather Features On October 7, 1894 from 1 to 3 inches of snow fell across portions of central Minnesota. The observer at Moorhead reported 3.3 inches. t was an early start to the snow season.

Very hard freeze occurred on October 7, 1896 with temperatures in the teens and twenties F from the Iowa border all the way north to Canada. It was 14°F at Pokegama Dam and 24°F at Grand Meadow. This was an abrupt end to what had been a relatively mild autumn.

October 7, 1992 brought heavy rains to southern Minnesota as several climate stations reported over 2 inches of rain, abruptly halting the harvest season for corn and soybeans. Owatonna received over 3 inches. October 7, 1993 was the warmest in history, with afternoon temperatures ranging into the 80s F in almost all parts of the state. Scores of communities set daily high temperature records.

Outlook Cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend with chances for patchy frosts. Warming trend begins on Monday and runs through much of next week, with a chance for precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sharply warmer by the end of next week.

First widespread frosts of the autumn Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 14, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Since last Friday, most of the state landscape has recorded the first frost of the season. In many areas low temperatures have dropped into the 20s F, ending the gardening season. Nearly all crops reached maturity without any frost damage this year, and both corn and soybeans have been drying now nicely in the field this week. Early morning lows as cold as 28F were reported from as far south as Preston, Zumbrota, and Austin on October 13th. Up north in Clay County the Georgetown observer reported 25F on October 9th. Only a few places along the Mississippi River in southeastern Minnesota and within the core of the Twin Cities Metro Area have not yet reported a frost this month.

Wet trend continues Following a wet first week of the month (some reported record daily rainfall on the 5th) rainfall has been less during the second week generally, but some observers reported a half inch to over an inch of rainfall over the second week of the month. Many have already reported a monthly total that exceeds the October average (over 2 inches). Waseca has already reported 50.59 inches of precipitation in 2016, a new annual record for that location, and there are still two and a half months left in the year. St James (Watonwan County) reports a total precipitation for the year so far of 47.47 inches which is already an all-time record there as well.

Hurricane Matthew Rainfalls Speaking of rainfalls, Hurricane Matthew brought record rainfalls to some of the Atlantic Coastal states last weekend. Many coastal regions of South Carolina and North Carolina reported 10-15 inches of rainfall. In North Carolina 39 climate stations reported new daily record rainfalls, some of which were over 9 inches. In South Carolina 19 climate stations reported new daily rainfall records, with 12 inches at Manning on the 8th. And in Florida 11 climate stations reported new daily record rainfall amounts, including 6.38 inches at Titusville on the 7th. Most of the damage from Hurricane Matthew was in coastal erosion (tidal surge0 and flooding. The National Weather Service in Charleston, SC provided a summary of winds and rainfall from the hurricane, as did the NWS Office at Wilmington, NC.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Hurricane Nicole, a Category 3 storm brought heavy rains (up to 8 inches), strong winds (up to 115 mph), and storm surge of 6 to 8 feet to parts of Bermuda on Thursday of this week. It was expected to move off into the northeast and become extra-tropical by the weekend, lingering southeast of Newfoundland.

NOAA's latest ENSO Outlook suggests that there is a 70 percent chance that a weak La Nina episode may form late this autumn season. If it does there may be implications for the climate patterns during the winter season (Dec-Feb), but we won't see that factored into the CPC outlooks until next week.

There is an interesting assessment of the vulnerability of older building structures to climate change posted on the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit web site this week. "The increased frequency of some extreme weather events and expected changes in "everyday" climate conditions may present a challenge to older buildings and infrastructure. Bolstering outdated structures and implementing updated building codes may help reduce vulnerabilities."

A team of researchers from Virginia Tech recently published an article in the journal Climate Change where they suggest that future changes in precipitation may result in enhanced agricultural and hydrologic resources for Ethiopia, with positive implications for the economy of that country.

MPR listener question You and Cathy have remarked about the long string of warmer than normal months this year. When was the last time Minnesota experienced 3 consecutive colder than normal months?

Answer Indeed, 6 of the 9 months so far this year have been significantly warmer than normal in Minnesota, two months were slightly warmer than normal, and only April of this year was cooler than normal on a statewide basis. The last significantly cooler than normal run of temperatures in Minnesota of 3 months duration or longer was from November of 2013 to April of 2014, a run of 6 consecutive months. Since 1996 only three years in Minnesota have been cooler than normal when averaging all 12 months. Those were 2008, 2013 and 2014.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 14th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 14th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 86 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1909 and 1943; lowest daily minimum temperature is 24 degrees F in 1937; highest daily minimum temperature of 66 degrees F in 1968; record precipitation of 1.89 inches in 1966; and a trace of snowfall was recorded in this date in 1909, 1943, and 1959.

Average dew point for October 14th is 41 degrees F, with a maximum of 70 degrees F in 1962 and a minimum of 17 degrees F in 2006.

All-time state records for October 14th The state record high temperature for this date is 91 degrees F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 1947. The state record low temperature for this date is 8 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1937. State record precipitation for this date is 4.45 inches at Mahnomen (Mahnomen County) in 1984; and record snowfall is 4.1 inches at Argyle (Marshall County) in 1992.

Past Weather Features The coldest October 14th in state history occurred in 1937. In western and northern counties morning low temperatures ranged from 8F to 15F, and as far south as St Peter it was just 17F. Two days later Mother Nature brought a warm rainfall to the state with temperatures that were 30-40 degrees higher.

The warmest October 14th in state history occurred in 1947. With strong sunshine and a south wind many areas of Minnesota warmed up to afternoon high temperatures that were 25-30 degrees F above normal. Over 50 communities reported highs in the 80s F, while both Redwood Falls and St Peter reached 90 degrees F or higher. 1947 brought the 2nd warmest October in state history, with several days reaching the 90s F.

A slow moving storm system brought heavy rain and even some thunderstorms to the state over October 14-16, 1984. Many observers reported from 3 to 5 inches of rain, while portions of Douglas, Clearwater, and Mahnomen Counties received over 5 inches causing some local flooding.

October 14-16, 1992 brought an early snowstorm to the state. Unfortunately, many crops were still unharvested, and this storm further delayed those operations. Areas of western Minnesota reported 2-4 inches of snowfall, while the south received trace amounts up to 2 inches.

Outlook Cloudy and warm on Saturday with a chance for showers, especially in eastern sections. Brighter on Sunday and still warmer than normal, with increasing clouds by evening and a chance for showers. Chance for showers will be continuing on Monday and Tuesday. Cooler by mid-week with temperatures closer to normal. More sun on Wednesday and Thursday.

New Seasonal Climate Outlook Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 21, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the winter seasonal climate outlook on Thursday of this week. NOAA scientists acknowledged that they factored in the presence of a weak La Nina (cooler than normal equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures) in the outlook. Although November is expected to start out warmer than normal the outlook for the coming November through March period mostly favors cooler than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for Minnesota. Given the trend for such a warm year in 2016, this outlook is baffling in the context of expecting to see a reversal of this trend that persists through the winter. After all, over 72 percent of all days in the past 12 months have brought warmer than normal temperatures to Minnesota.

New record high dew points this week Strong south winds ushered in some warm, moist air over Sunday and Monday (Oct 16- 17) raising dew points across the state to near record levels for this time of year. The high afternoon temperatures reached into the 70s F across southern Minnesota on both days, with a high of 77°F at La Crescent on Monday setting a new high temperature record for the date. The Twin Cities saw a dew point of 64°F on Monday, just two degrees shy of the record highest for the date. Rochester reported a new record high dew point of 68°F on Monday, while the dew point at La Crosse, WI rose to 70°F on Monday which tied the all-time highest ever measured during the month of October. Two days later dew points dropped into the upper 20s to low 30s F.

Composting leaves and yard waste Are you already raking and bagging leaves this autumn? Seems like in many areas yards are starting to fill with them. Many homeowners around the state compost leaves in the fall. My University Department of Soil, Water, and Climate has developed recommendations for composting and mulching of organic yard wastes, including leaves (by authors Halbach and Rosen). In fact there is an online guide to composting and mulching which is available from the University of Minnesota Extension. I encourage you to take a look at it.

24th Annual Kuehnast Lecture Video Online The recent Kuehnast Endowment Lecture Program related to climate change, energy, and the free enterprise system presented by Paul Douglas (President of Aeris Weather) and former SC Congressman Bob Inglis (founder of RepublicEN) is now available for viewing. You can watch it on the YouTube site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri This week NOAA scientist Deke Arndt features an interesting article on the wettest and driest places in the USA based on long term climate stations. It is interesting to see the extremes in precipitation coming from a wide range of geography. For example, did you know that it rains less than 18 days per year at Yuma, Arizona, but over 272 days per year at Hilo, Hawaii?

Typhoon Haima brought heavy rains, strong winds and high seas to northern parts of the Philippines this week. It was estimated that 60,000 people in the Philippines were displaced by the rain and winds. The storm is then headed towards Hong Kong and SE China on Friday and caused a cancellation of nearly 700 flights at the Hong Kong Airport, as well as an early closure of the business district. Heavy rains were expected over SE China into the weekend.

Earlier this month the NY Times featured an article about the critical need for the National Weather Service to upgrade their forecast models. In recent years it appears that other weather services (notably in the United Kingdom) have made progress in deploying next generation computer technology to upgrade their forecast models, and which now do a more accurate job of forecasting weather elements both spatially and temporally. Hopefully, the NOAA National Weather Service will be able to follow suit in coming years. (Thanks to former MPR colleague Bob Potter for mentioning this article)

Scientists at North Carolina State University have found that measurements of wind patterns in the lowest 500 meter layer of the atmosphere around supercell thunderstorms can provide clues to whether or not a tornado will develop. This information provides the potential for meteorologists to improve their forecasting of tornadoes. You can read more about this at the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question A low temperature of 36°F this week, but still no sign of frost this fall at my house in Richfield, not far from the MSP Airport. How often has the first autumn frost in the Twin Cities not arrived until November?

Answer Looking back in the Twin Cities climate records to 1873, only 7 years have brought the first autumn frost in the month of November, the latest coming on November 7, 1900. So, if this should happen again this year it would indeed be a rare occurrence. BTW the first autumn frost in the Twin Cities last year was on October 17th, and the earliest ever was September 3, 1974.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 21st The average MSP high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 21st MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 1947; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1913; lowest daily minimum temperature is 16 degrees F in 1913; highest daily minimum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 1.76 inches in 1894; and a record snowfall of 0.4 inches in 2002.

Average dew point for October 21st is 37 degrees F, with a maximum of 64 degrees F in 1920 and a minimum of 8 degrees F in 1952.

All-time state records for October 21st The state record high temperature for this date is 91 degrees F at Little Falls (Morrison County) in 1947. The state record low temperature for this date is -2 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1913. State record precipitation for this date is 2.35 inches at Harmony (Fillmore County) in 1982; and record snowfall is 8.0 inches at Milaca (Mille Lacs County) in 2002.

Past Weather Features An early snowstorm brought 6-10 inches of snowfall over October 20-21, 1906. Fortunately the snow was short-lived, as temperatures warmed into the 40s and 50s F over the next several days.

October 21, 1913 was the coldest in state history as morning temperatures fell into the teens F all over the state. Many observers reported morning lows in the single digits as well, with a reading of only 6 degrees F as far south as Windom (Cottonwood County).

October 21, 1947 was the warmest in state history. Nearly all communities in the state reported afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s F. Little Falls started the day with a morning low of 39°F, but under bright sun and with a strong southern breeze they warmed to 92°F by late afternoon.

October 19-21, 1982 brought heavy rains to many parts of the state, interrupting the corn harvest. Most observers reported from 1 to 2 inches, but Lanesboro and Preston reported over 3 inches.

October 20-21, 2002 brought an early season snowfall to the state, especially across central Minnesota counties. An area from Todd County east to Pine County reported from 3 to 9 inches of snowfall. Some snow-related accidents were reported along Highway 10 in central Minnesota.

Outlook Generally warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend, with a sunny Saturday, and a cloudy Sunday. Chance for rain showers in the far north. Continued warm temperatures into next week with a chance for rain showers again by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Preliminary Climate Summary for October 2016 Minnesota WeatherTalk, October 28, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Continuing the year-long trend October was warmer than normal, with approximately two-thirds of all the days recording warmer than average temperatures. Most observers reported mean monthly temperatures that were 2-4°F above normal. On a statewide basis this October will be among the warmest 20 in history. Extremes for the month ranged from 80°F at Milan (Chippewa County) and Marshall (Lyon County) on the 2nd to just 18°F at Embarrass (St Louis County) on the 25th. For the first 10 months of 2016 the statewide temperature ranks as the 4th warmest in history. Most areas of the state reported at least one frost during October. Just a few areas escaped frost during the month. Some of those included the Twin Cities Metro Core, and some communities along the Mississippi River bluff country in southeastern counties (Winona, La Crescent, Minnesota City).

October precipitation looks to be less than normal in the northern counties and much above normal in the south. Overall, on a statewide basis it will be a slightly wetter than normal month. By far the largest amounts of precipitation fell in southern counties where many communities reported 3 to 4 inches. Wells and Winnebago, both in Faribault County reported over 5 inches of precipitation. Madison (1.98"), Minneota (1.97"), Winnebago (1.42"), and Worthington (1.60") all reported new record daily precipitation amounts on October 5th. In northern St Louis County, Orr, Embarrass, Cook, and Chisholm all reported measurable snowfall, from 0.1 to 1.0" on October 7th. For the first ten months of 2016 statewide average precipitation has been over 30 inches, ranking as the 3rd wettest historically. In south-central counties the first ten months of 2016 have been the wettest in history, surpassing 1993.

Topic: 25th Anniversary of the Halloween Blizzard For many Minnesota citizens the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 (Oct 31 to Nov 3) remains one of the most dramatic weather events of their lifetime. One of the largest, most intense, and longest lasting blizzards to ever hit the state, this storm paralyzed many sections of eastern Minnesota where roads and highways were closed, and also left over 100,000 customers without power due to power lines brought down by ice, which was up to 2 inches thick in some parts of southeastern Minnesota. -Over 200 new daily snowfall records were set across the state during this storm, including four communities that reported over 20 inches in a 24-hr period. -The 4-day blizzard left many areas of the state with record levels of snow depth for November, ranging from 25 to 35 inches. -At the height of the blizzard snow accumulation was occurring at the rate of 3 inches/hour, with maximum wind gusts to 50 mph. -At least 16 communities reported a storm total snowfall of 25 inches or greater, topped by 36.9 inches at Duluth.

-In the aftermath of the storm over 100 communities reported subzero F low temperatures over the first few days of November. -With such a snowy start to November, many places reported record snowfall for the month, including 46.9" at MSP, 50.1" at Duluth, 51.5" at Two Harbors, and 58.6" at Bruno

More information can be found at the State Climatology Office web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri In a recent study NOAA researchers have found a link between warmer than normal water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and larger tornado numbers in the central USA. They argue that monitoring water temperatures in the Gulf will give forecasters better guidance to anticipate tornado outbreaks in the Southern Plains and Midwest.

You will find an interesting paper published this week in Geology which highlights the ocean role in moderating the 100,000 year ice age cycles. Ice cover, ocean circulation, and ocean temperatures all play a role in this, moderating the flux of carbon dioxide in the oceans and the atmosphere.

To commemorate the 100th Anniversary of doing weather forecasts for the military the United Kingdom Met Office this week released a brief report about significant military campaigns that were assisted by meteorological guidance, starting with WWI. Today, Mobile Meteorological Units are deployed to provide weather forecasts for the military on the spot where they are conducting field operations.

The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia released a report this week that links the higher frequency of extreme maximum temperatures as well as more frequent incidents of wild fires to climate change. Their State of the Climate 2016 report can be found online.

MPR listener question Our family is remembering the Halloween Blizzard of 25 years ago, when we were snowed in for 3 days after getting over two feet of snow with drifts over 6 feet high here in Forest Lake. Have there ever been other storms equivalent to that one in this area? Answer Based on storm intensity, duration, and amount of snowfall, there are only two historical analogies for the Twin Cities area. January 12-16, 1887 a slow-moving low-pressure system brought 5 consecutive days of snow, totaling over 19 inches to the Twin Cities area, closing businesses in both St Paul and Minneapolis, as well as making sledding difficult to get around the streets. The other episode was over January 20-25, 1982 when dual low-pressure systems brought snowfall over 6 consecutive days totaling over 20 inches in many parts of the Twin Cities Metro Area (39.7 inches at MSP Airport).

This caused road closures and collapsed roofs in many areas.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 28th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 35 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 28th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1948; lowest daily maximum temperature of 24 degrees F in 1925; lowest daily minimum temperature is 17 degrees F in 1905 and 1925; highest daily minimum temperature of 56 degrees F in 1974; record precipitation of 1.97 inches in 1874; and a record snowfall of 0.4 inches in 1895.

Average dew point for October 28th is 34 degrees F, with a maximum of 59 degrees F in 1946 and a minimum of 9 degrees F in 2008.

All-time state records for October 28th The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1983. The state record low temperature for this date is -9 degrees F at Angus (Polk County) in 1919. State record precipitation for this date is 3.10 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1900; and record snowfall is 9.5 inches at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1932.

Past Weather Features Thunderstorms brought heavy rains to parts of the state over October 27-28, 1900. Many areas received 1-2 inches and in southeastern counties some observers reported over 3 inches of rain.

The coldest October 28th in state history occurred in 1919 when most parts of the state saw morning low temperatures dip into the single digits or teens. Some climate stations in northern and western counties reported subzero low temperatures and it fell to just 6 degrees F at Redwood Falls.

A slow-moving low-pressure system brought a major winter storm to the state over October 28-30, 1932. Many communities reported 3-6 inches of snowfall, and 10-14 inches of snowfall was reported in far northern Minnesota.

The warmest October 28th in state history came in 1983 when nearly all areas saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 70s F. Twelve climate stations reported a high temperature of 80 degrees F or greater, including a reading of 80°F at Brainerd.

Word of the Week: Ceraunograph This instrument (pronounced sir-rono-graph) is devised to measure or count lightning strikes. It was first used by Rev. F.L. Odenbach of St Ignatius College in Cleveland, OH during the early 20th Century. The electro-magnetic waves emitted from a lightning strike are received by a copper coil and translated to a paper chart. Now there are even portable lightning detection meters that can be used on backpacking or hiking trips. (Note thanks to Lucas Graunke of the MN State Climatology Office for finding the articles about this old instrument).

Outlook Cloudy with a chance for rain on Saturday, while temperatures remain slightly warmer than normal. Drier on Sunday. Warmer on Monday with a chance for showers later in the day. Then mostly quiet weather wise for next week with daytime highs a few degrees warmer than normal.

Warm start to November Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 04, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Most climate stations in the state are reporting daily temperatures that range from 8 to 15 degrees F above normal for the first few days of November. This pattern is expected to persist well into the month, and may approach the record warmest first half of November which dates back to 2001 That year was the only time the Twin Cities saw daily temperatures average above 50°F for the whole first half of November. Everybody is asking when the other shoe will drop. Perhaps not until the 16th or 17th.

This warm pattern conforms to the year-long trend in Minnesota temperatures which is persistently warmer than normal. In fact, the state has recorded the 4th warmest first ten months of the year (Jan-Oct) in 2016, and the 3rd wettest such period as well.

Summary of record-setting daily climate values for 2016 The current year has been a warm and wet one for Minnesota in no uncertain terms. Among the state's 131 Cooperative Observer Climate Stations, here is a listing of the number of record-setting high daily maximum temperature, warm daily minimum temperature, and total daily precipitation measurements that have been reported so far this year:

Month Daily Max Temp Daily Highest Min Daily Total Records Temp Records Precipitation Records January 9 48 31 February 70 71 46 March 149 187 66 April 21 38 31 May 70 13 25 June 26 26 38 July 13 50 93 August 4 18 108 September 5 55 95 October 12 22 53 Total 379 528 586

These numbers are well above average for number of new record daily climate values set each year. Overall, March was probably the most unusual month of the year, ranking as the 6th warmest in state history and the 11th wettest.

Weekly Weather Potpourri A recent research study presented in the International Journal of Climatology documents changes in soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation patterns in eastern Siberia and the overall effects on the climate there. Certainly, the loss of permafrost, as well as an increase in the heat and moisture transfer within the soil have been observed there. These climate changes are significant and will likely have long term consequences.

NOAA's weekly update features an interesting article this week about how the changing climate of the dry mountainous areas of South America is causing more rapid deterioration of mummies there. The higher humidity is boosting the growth and metabolism of bacteria which live on the mummies skin. This climate change is of concern to anthropologists who continue to study these ancient cultural relics which are up to 7000 years old.

Tropical Storm Meari in the Western Pacific Ocean was expected to intensify and become a typhoon on Friday this week, producing wind speeds over 95 mph and sea wave heights over 25 feet. It was expected to remain mostly over the open ocean and not a threat to any major islands.

With the continued loss of Arctic Sea Ice, the Northwest Passage through Arctic Canada is becoming more navigable for commercial shipping. A German-Canadian research team has undertaking the task of mapping the best routes through this passage linking the North Pacific Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean. It is estimated that it may take up to 10 years to develop and deploy all the technology to ensure safe navigation for shipping but there is widespread interest in doing so.

MPR listener question I have been waiting to apply fall nitrogen to my fields this fall as a result of the warm temperatures we have been having. Most crop advisors are telling me to wait for the soil to cool off more. When do you think it will drop below 50°F and stay there? BTW I am from Martin County near Fairmont.

Answer The declining day length and sun angle this month will help in this regard. Because even though the air temperature may warm to 50- or 60-degrees F during the afternoon it won't effectively warm the soil that much. After the warm spell ends the middle of next week, I think we will see a more permanent decline in daily soil temperatures, which will moderate much more in the 40s F. So, if you want to get done before Thanksgiving, I encourage you to begin your work by November 10th or so. If you want more current information or data updates please use the Extension Crop News and the Minnesota Department of Agriculture updates.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 4th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1975; lowest daily maximum temperature of 17 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature is -3 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 52 degrees F in 2015; record precipitation of 0.61 inches in 1988; and a record snowfall of 1.0 inches in 1910.

Average dew point for November 4th is 29 degrees F, with a maximum of 55 degrees F in 1956 and a minimum of -5 degrees F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 4th The state record high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 1975. The state record low temperature for this date is -13 degrees F at Warren (Marshall County) in 1919. State record precipitation for this date is 1.84 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1922; and record snowfall is 15.8 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1982.

Past Weather Features Very cold first week of November in 1853 at Fort Snelling. Morning temperature readings were in the single digits on three days, and only one date (the 1st) did the daytime temperature rise above freezing. First snowfall came on November 4th.

November 4, 1919 brought frigid temperatures to the state. Many northern observers reported morning temperatures that were subzero, including -12°F at Angus (Polk County). Afternoon high temperatures remained below the freezing mark as far south as Albert Lea and Grand Meadow.

November 4, 1975 was the warmest in state history as early all areas saw afternoon temperatures climb into the 70s F. Over 80 climate stations reported a new record high temperature for the date, and many reported lows that only dropped into the 40s F.

A deep low-pressure system brought heavy snow to northern Minnesota on November 3-4, 1982. Many observers reported 3 to 7 inches, and in northeastern Minnesota cities 10 to 20 inches of snow was reported, with difficult driving conditions, especially along the north shore of Lake Superior.

With abundant snow on the ground as a result of the Halloween Blizzard, 1991 brought the coldest November 4th of all time. Many observers reported morning low temperatures that were below zero, while afternoon highs remained in the teens and twenties. The temperature never rose higher than 14 degrees F at Zumbrota and only made 17 degrees F in the Twin Cities.

Outlook Very warm with near record high temperatures on Saturday, followed by increasing cloudiness and a bit cooler temperatures on Sunday. Slight chance of showers later on Sunday and into Monday, but temperatures will remain warmer than normal for this time of year. Generally dry and warmer than normal for the remainder of next week.

Warmest first ten days of November Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 11, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The remarkable warmth so far this month is record-setting. For example, in the Twin Cities, the average temperature for the first ten days of November is 53.7. This is nearly 14F above normal and surpasses the other warm first ten days of November which occurred in 1975, 2001, and 2015. This pattern is holding true at a number of locations around the state, including International Falls where the first ten days of November are average close to 46F also about 14F above normal. This too surpasses the other warmest Novembers of 1964, 1975, and 2015.

So far this month 32 daily high temperature records have been set within the Minnesota Cooperative Weather Observer Network across the state, including a remarkable reading of 78F at Mora (Kanabec County) on the 5th which tied the all-time state high temperature record for that date (set at Madison in Lac Qui Parle County back in 1975). In addition a handful of warmest overnight minimum temperature records have been set this month, including a low of 48F at Winona on the 2nd.

Kenny Blumenfeld of the State Climatology Office also notes that most observers around the state have reported record-setting warm minimum temperatures for the autumn season so far, even though nearly all have reported frosts as well. For the Twin Cities "...36F on the 9th is the warmest fall-to-date (Sep 1 Nov 9) minimum temperature ever recorded in the Twin Cities...... the next warmest is 31F." Furthermore, he notes "...This record is quite stable geographically. Milan and Waseca both broke their warmest fall-to-date minimum records this year, at 27F and 28F, respectively. Rochester, St. Cloud, Pipestone, Duluth, Morris, and Grand Rapids did it too. In other words, the coldest nights of fall have never been this warm...."

Weekly Weather Potpourri Earlier this week NOAA scientists offered a "Briefing on La Nina Conditions" in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A La Nina episode is officially underway and expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter. One anomaly in play this year is a very warm Eastern Pacific Ocean which may modify the expected impacts of a La Nina episode during a North America winter.

There is an interesting article this week about the Smithsonian Institution's exhibit "What Does It Mean to Be Human." Rick Potts, Director of the Human Origins Program shares his thoughts about how climate variability governed human adaptation and evolution.

Earlier this week the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a detailed analysis of global climate over the period 2011-2015. This is the warmest five-year period ever measured globally, and associated with a measured rise in sea level and a sharp decline in Arctic Sea Ice. It was also a period of many extreme climate events and episodes.

A recent article from Brown University explores some of the financial options being considered to help pay for losses and damages that are expected to be inflicted by climate change. Two types of debt securities are discussed: climate-themed bonds and catastrophe bonds.

MPR listener question We love winter and just recently retired to the Brainerd Lakes area in central Minnesota where we hope to have more snow each winter. But so far this month no snow in the area. How often does November not produce any snowfall here?

Answer The Brainerd climate data show that since 1948 there have only been 7 years when November brought no snowfall to the Brainerd Lakes area. So that is close to a 1 in 10- year frequency. The good news is that once snow occurs in the Brainerd Lakes Area it tends to persist longer on the landscape than in does in the Twin Cities Metro Area.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 11th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 11th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 2005; lowest daily maximum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily minimum temperature is -1 degrees F in 1986; highest daily minimum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1930; record precipitation of 2.52 inches in 1940; and a record snowfall of 8.2 inches in 1940.

Average dew point for November 11th is 27 degrees F, with a maximum of 54 degrees F in 1964 and a minimum of -6 degrees F in 1986.

All-time state records for November 11th The state record high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -22 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1919. State record precipitation for this date is 2.52 inches in the Twin Cities in 1940; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Orr (St Louis County) in 1940.

Past Weather Features November 11, 1940 brought the famous Armistice Day Blizzard to Minnesota. Weather conditions deteriorated from a mild autumn pattern to blinding snow and dangerous windchill conditions in a matter of hours. Poorly forecasted this storm dumped from 16 to 24 inches of snow across many portions of Minnesota and paralyzed the state. At one point snow was falling at a rate of 3 inches per hour. At least 49 citizens lost their lives in the storm.

A warm front brought some September-like temperatures to many portions of southern Minnesota on November 11, 1949. at Austin, Grand Meadow, Winnebago, Worthington, and Pipestone afternoon temperatures rose into the 70s F.

Winter-like conditions prevailed on November 11, 1986. Following a snowfall over the 8th and 9th temperatures plummeted to subzero readings nearly everywhere in the state. It was -6F at Rochester and -7F at Albert Lea, while the daytime high temperature never rose above 4F at Warroad.

November 11, 2012 provided a sharp contrast in weather across the state. South- central and southeastern Minnesota cities were enjoying afternoon temperatures in the 70s F while in the Red River Valley the daytime temperatures remained in the 20s F and low 30s F all day, with windchill conditions in the single digits.

Outlook Continuing to be sunny and mild over the weekend with daytime high temperatures well above average, though Saturday morning may start with a frost in many areas. Somewhat cooler on Monday and Tuesday, but still warmer than normal. Generally, a dry period through next week.

Record warmth abruptly ends Minnesota WeatherTalk, November 18, 2016 By Mark Seeley

The record-setting warmth of the first 17 days of November (temperatures 13-15°F above normal) abruptly ended this week with a strong winter storm which ushered in widespread precipitation, some heavy snow, very strong winds, and cold air. For the first time since mid-October many communities will see their first below normal temperatures over this coming weekend, and central and northern Minnesota will receive the first significant snowfall, with many western counties under a blizzard warning. Although this weather event will bring an end to the historically warm pattern it is likely that with moderating temperatures for the balance of November, we will end up with one of the warmest Novembers in state history. In addition much of the model guidance suggests that the first ten days of December will be warmer than normal as well.

One additional note to add on the first half of November comes from Dave Ruschy, who for many years managed the St Paul Campus Climate Observatory. He recently noted that the first two weeks of November brought near record solar radiation. With absence of cloud cover solar radiation measured in the Twin Cities area during the first half of November was over 40 percent above average and very near the record sunniest of November 1981. Solar energy measurements at the St Paul Climate Observatory date back to 1963. This climate feature certainly affected the warm statewide pattern and helped keep soil temperatures around the state well above normal.

Winter storm brings first significant precipitation of the month A winter storm (Thursday through early Saturday) this week brought the first significant precipitation of the month for many climate stations in the state, and for some the first significant amount since October 29th. Precipitation fell in the form of rain, sleet, and snow. Observers reported liquid amounts ranging from a quarter of an inch to three- quarters. With unfrozen soil conditions, much of the precipitation will infiltrate the soil and be stored there for the winter. In addition, soil temperatures will begin to decline in earnest following the winter storm, so those who have been waiting to apply mulch to the garden may want to do so next week. Stored soil moisture is abundant and quite adequate over most parts of the state. This moisture will still be there come next spring when the agricultural and gardening season begins.

This winter storm delivered significant precipitation to the state, and it appears that another storm may deliver more precipitation next Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

New seasonal climate outlook The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released a new set of seasonal climate outlooks this week. Although the first ten days of December are expected to be warmer than normal, the temperature outlook for December through February leans toward cooler than normal temperatures across the state. In fact, cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the region through April of 2017. I remain skeptical about this outlook and have little confidence in it.

For the period from December through April the outlook for precipitation favors above normal values across the Great Lakes Region, including Minnesota. Given the recent historical trend for wetter than normal conditions, this outlook is compatible with the evidence in Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri Timely this week with the onset of snow cover over the Minnesota landscape, NOAA featured a review of its monitoring program for snow and ice cover maps of the USA. These are updated daily and might be useful for the winter season in planning travel and outdoor recreational activities.

EOS this week featured an interesting article about how climate and humans have responded to past significant volcanic eruptions. It is an interesting read is still relevant to climate behavior today.

The NOAA Climate Resilience Toolkit this week features an article about using historical rainfall analysis to properly size culvert design for roads and trails. The climate data to use for such purposes is now more available than ever.

A recent paper published in the International Journal of Climatology documents changes in monsoon rainfalls in India. The records show that heavy rainfalls during the monsoon season are becoming greater in intensity (amounts) as well covering a larger geographic area of central India. The frequency, areal coverage, and intensity of hot days during the monsoon season also show increases.

BBC Weather Centre reported this week on rare November tornadoes which brought damage to parts of Wales and the English Midlands. Relatively small in scale and short- live these storms knocked down trees and caused some structural damage to buildings.

MPR listener question Is it unusual for the first major snowfall of the season to come as a blizzard to many parts of the state? Don't we usually start winter a little more gradually?

Answer Yes, more often than not winter settles in first with a few small doses of snowfall spread out over several weeks. But an abrupt start with an early season blizzard has occurred a number of times in our history. Some examples in our history include: October 16-18, 1880 paralyzing blizzard in SW Minnesota October 19, 1916 blizzard delivered 7-12 inches with 5 ft drifts in northwestern and north-central MN November 11, 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard, first snow of the season for most of the state October 31-November 2, 1991 Halloween Blizzard was first snowfall of the season for eastern MN November 15-17, 1996 blizzard delivered first snow of the season to west-central MN November 11, 1998 blizzard delivered over a foot of first snow cover to Yellow Medicine County, MN October 24-25, 2001 a blizzard delivered over a foot of first snow cover to many areas of the Red River Valley, MN

Twin Cities Almanac for November 18th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 18th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1904 and 1941; lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1874; lowest daily minimum temperature is -4 degrees F in 1891; highest daily minimum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1953; record precipitation of 0.82 inches in 1981; and a record snowfall of 7.6 inches in 1957.

Average dew point for November 18th is 26 degrees F, with a maximum of 56 degrees F in 1941 and a minimum of -2 degrees F in 1989.

All-time records for November 18th The state record high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F at Faribault (Rice County) in 1923. The state record low temperature for this date is -19 degrees F at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1940. State record precipitation for this date is 3.10 inches at Hinckley (Pine County) in 1996; and record snowfall is 15.0 inches at Crookston (Polk County) in 1998.

Past Weather Features November 18, 1874 was clear and cold. The few climate stations in the state at that time reported morning lows near zero degrees F and afternoon highs only in the teens.

The coldest statewide November 18 occurred in 1914 following a winter storm which dumped several inches of snow across many parts of the state. Many climate stations in central and northern Minnesota reported subzero low temperatures, and single digit temperatures were common in southern counties. The daytime temperature never rose above 11°F at Fergus Falls.

All-time warmest November 18th in history was in 1953 when most climate stations reported daytime highs in the 60s F. Ten communities saw the mercury climb into the 70s F including Detroit Lakes (Becker County). No sign of winter was yet in the air.

November 16-18, 1958 brought a major winter storm to the state. A mixture of rain, sleet, snow, and ice fell across the state making travel very difficult. Some communities in southern Minnesota reported over 2 inches of rain, while in the far north over 10 inches of snow was reported.

Heavy snow fell across the northern counties of Minnesota over November 16-19, 1998. Many areas reported over 10 inches and a number of roads and highways were closed for periods of time. High winds blew snow into large drifts as well.

Outlook A cold and dry weekend following the winter storm. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than normal for the first time in weeks. Moderation in temperature will begin on Monday pulling temperatures back to near normal values, then a chance for precipitation again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s F for Thanksgiving.

November Climate Summary Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 02, 2016 By Mark Seeley

Following a year-long trend in Minnesota November brought warmer than normal temperatures. Mean monthly values ranged from 10-12 degrees F above normal most places. Extremes for the month were 78°F at Mora (Kanabec County) on the 5th (which tied the state record high for the date set back in 1975 at Madison), to as cold as -1°F at Seagull Lake (Cook County) on the 21st. For many climate stations 27 of the 30 days of the month were warmer than normal. International Falls, Park Rapids, Gunflint Lake, Tower, Ada, Cloquet, Redwood Falls, and La Crescent were among the stations reporting the warmest November in their climate history. On a statewide basis it was the 2nd warmest November in history, only surpassed by that of 2001. Across the observation network in Minnesota 156 daily high maximum temperature records were set or tied, while 58 record warm minimum temperature records were set or tied. For the autumn season (September through November) it was the warmest in state history dating back to 1895. On a statewide basis the mean temperature for the 3-month period was about 6 degrees F above normal. For the first 11 months of 2016, it has been the 2nd warmest in state history, surpassed only by 2012.

Most observers reported above normal precipitation for the month, with the vast majority coming in storms during the second half. Only a scattering of climate stations in northwestern and southeastern counties reported below normal precipitation. A few places were very wet, including 4.76" at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center (Lake County) which was their 4th wettest November in history; 4.20" at Grand Marais (Cook County) their 3rd wettest November in history; and 3.79" at Grand Rapids (Itasca County) their 3rd wettest November in history. Across the observer network in Minnesota 37 daily precipitation records were set or tied. Overall on a statewide basis November precipitation ranked as 29th wettest, but for the autumn season (September- November) precipitation ranked as the 16th wettest autumn, and for the year to date (first 11 months) it is the 3rd wettest in history.

Waseca now reports 54.13 inches of precipitation for 2016 and this is a new statewide annual precipitation record, surpassing the old one of 53.52" at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1991.

November snowfall all came during the second half of the month and ranged from 1 to 4 inches across southern counties. In the far north it was much more. Grand Rapids, Cook, Orr, and Tower all reported over 20 inches. Across the observer network in Minnesota 30 daily snowfall records were set or tied during the month, including a new statewide snowfall record for November 18th of 17 inches at Grand Rapids (breaking the old record of 15 inches at Crookston in 1998).

Weekly Weather Potpourri The Smithsonian published an interesting and engaging cartoon version of a climate change graphic which everyone should take a look at. It illustrates well the temporal context for past climate change versus the human-induced accelerated pace of change in recent decades.

An interesting article appeared in the NY Times this week about "Thunderstorm Asthma" in Australia. Apparently perennial ryegrass seeds were swept up by converging thunderstorm winds, broken up into fine pieces and then scattered across the Australia landscape. These fine particles when inhaled can produce serious respiratory problems for some people. Many citizens were sent to the hospital with breathing problems from these storms.

There is an interesting article by NOAA's Tom DiLiberto this week about Hurricane Otto hitting Nicaragua and Costa Rica last month. There were many unique attributes to this deadly hurricane, one of the latest recorded for the Atlantic basin.

NOAA also announced a webinar coming up next week (Dec 5) which will describe the impacts of climate change on our food system. Specifically this presentation will deal with "a review of how seasonal effects, temperature effects, and extreme weather due to a changing climate impact multiple factors in food production and safety including the growing, harvesting, packing, and holding of commodities for human consumption.

A new article from Umea University in Sweden documents a shrinkage in the snow cover season of up to two months. This has happened with consistency over the past 30 years and produced some effects in the herding patterns of reindeer. In addition, the author notes that there has been a rise in the cases of rabbit fever among the human population

Commentary on Winter TIME No question will be answered this week, but I want to take TIME to make a comment about Winter TIME. Managing the TIME in the Winter Season in Minnesota is a different ball game than other seasons of the year, because everything takes longer. No question winter will be felt more frequently soon in the daily weather, and snowfalls will become more frequent this month. The rash of bicycle, pedestrian, and vehicular accidents reported during the snowstorms towards the end of November reminded me about adjusting for Winter TIME. Our concept of time needs to be adjusted. Lengthen the time intervals that you have intuitively built-into your everyday habits and tasks. It takes longer to walk places, longer to drive places, longer to dress and undress, longer to warm up the car, longer to degomble (shed snow) when you come into the house. You need to make time to shovel snow, scrape the windshield, clean the furnace filters, When you walk take shorter steps and not too fast...put the boots, gloves and hat on when you go outside....check on the neighbor if their place hasn't been shoveled...everything should slow down..except for the long Minnesota goodbye..that is better shortened...just say goodbye, open the door, leave and close the door behind you....no need to stand in an open doorway for minutes conversing about last minute stuff. Winter TIME is an adjustment that may save you anxiety, regret, or even injury.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 2nd The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 17 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 2nd MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1982; lowest daily maximum temperature of -3 degrees F in 1886; lowest daily minimum temperature is -17 degrees F in 1886; highest daily minimum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1962; record precipitation of 0.30 inches in 1933; and a record snowfall of 2.7 inches in 1978.

Average dew point for December 2nd is 19 degrees F, with a maximum of 53 degrees F in 1982 and a minimum of -27 degrees F in 1976.

All-time state records for December 2nd The state record high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1998. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1896. State record precipitation for this date is 2.51 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1984; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Elbow Lake (Grant County) in 1985.

Past Weather Features Following a snowy last week of November, December of 1886 started out with an Arctic air mass that kept temperatures below 0°F the first few days of the month. On December 2nd morning low temperatures ranged from -12°F to -30°F around the state. The daytime high at Moorhead never rose higher than -19°F.

Ten years later following the paralyzing Thanksgiving winter storm of 1896, the state was in the grip of another Arctic air mass which brought even more severe sub-zero temperature readings to the state. Leech Lake and Pokegama Dam reported lows of - 41°F and -47°F, respectively. Over 15 climate stations reported temperatures of -20°F or colder.

A winter storm brought a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow to Minnesota over December 1-2, 1945. Some southern counties received between 1 inch and 1.5 inches of rain, while in central and northern cities heavy amounts of snow were reported, ranging from 7 to 11 inches.

The first few days of December 1976 started out cold and snowy around the state. At least 25 Minnesota communities reported morning lows of -30°F or colder on December 2nd. As far south as Zumbrota it was -15 degrees F.

A massive and slow-moving winter storm buried the state in snow over November 30 to December 2, 1985. Many areas of the state received 10-20 inches of snow and in some areas snow drifts were 6 feet high. Morris, Maple Plain, and St Peter observers reported over 20 inches, while the Willmar climate station reported over 30 inches. Many roads and schools were closed on Monday, December 2nd, as snow plows worked overtime to open things up.

The warmest December 2nd in state history occurred in 1998 when nearly all areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures in the 50s F or greater. Detroit Lakes and Grand Rapids reached 53°F while across southern Minnesota over 50 climate stations reported temperatures of 60 degrees F or greater.

Outlook Near normal temperatures into the weekend with a chance for mixed precipitation on Sunday. Warmer with a chance for rain or snow on Monday and Tuesday, may be heavy in the southeastern counties. A significant decline in temperatures to below normal values for next Wednesday through Saturday.

Blizzard in Northwestern Minnesota Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 09, 2016 By Mark Seeley

December 6-7 brought heavy snow, serious wind chills, and blizzard conditions to portions of northwestern Minnesota. Wind chills plummeted into the -20 to -30 degrees F range, and visibilities were less than 1/4 miles in places. Climate observers across northern Minnesota reported from 6 to 13 inches of new snow in total. On a daily basis some climate observers reported new daily record snowfalls as well, including:

For December 6th: Argyle (Marshall County) 9.1" Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County) 4.5"

For December 7th: International Falls (Koochiching County) 4.8" Argyle (Marshall County) 3.3" Isabella (Lake County) 4.0" Ada (Norman County) 8.5"

Following the storm, a polar air mass spread across the state bringing drier air and causing overnight low temperatures to plummet into the teens and even single digits F. Worthington (Nobles County) in southwestern Minnesota saw the temperature fall from 43°F to just 7°F in a span of about 18 hours. Similarly, earlier in the week Marshall (Lyon County) in southwestern Minnesota reported 43°F, about 16°F above normal, then by Friday morning the low was -1°F, about 10°F cooler than normal. These low temperatures have accelerated soil freezing, and lake ice formation.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA offered an article this week to describe the attributes, images, and measurements that will be important enhancements with the recent launch of the GOES-R satellite to monitor the Western Hemisphere. More comprehensive lightning detection and a higher frequency of imager turn-around times will be very helpful.

University of Alaska-Fairbanks operates a coastal ice observatory at Barrow, Alaska. From their web site you can monitor ice conditions, examine radar data, look at local forecast data, and observe changes in sea level elevation.

A recent paper from scientists at the Hadley Center in the United Kingdom shows that regional precipitation changes associated with 1-2°C warming of the planet would be distinctly different than those associated with a 2-4°F warming. This suggests that direction and amplitude of precipitation change on a regional basis cannot simply be extrapolated from increasing global temperature values. You can read more in Nature Communications.

Recent research from the University of Texas shows that incorporating the snow data derived from NASA satellites into the seasonal climate outlook models enhances the accuracy of the model temperature outlooks by 5 to 25 percent. This couple of data sources may lead to improvements in the NOAA seasonal outlook models.

MPR listener question I heard you mention that Waseca has reported the wettest year in state history in 2016 with over 54 inches already. But the year has been wet for nearly all of the state too. What other climate stations are reporting their wettest year?

Answer Good question. Even with the month of December incomplete, the following stations have reported their wettest year in history (through Dec 8th): Hawley (Clay County) 32.29" Eveleth (St Louis County) 35.94" Bird Island (Renville County) 39.96" Aitkin (Aitkin County) 40.21" Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 38.44" Univ of Minnesota St Paul Campus (Ramsey County) 39.87" Redwood Falls (Redwood County) 42.88" Amboy (Blue Earth County) 45.42" Faribault (Rice County) 45.43" Owatonna (Steele County) 48.10" St James (Watonwan County) 51.18" Waseca (Waseca County) 54.42" (new state record) Austin (Mower County) 46.87" Harmony (Fillmore County) 49.36"

Several other climate stations are very near to setting a record for wettest year as well and may achieve this before the end of December.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 9th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 14 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 9th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 58 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1977; lowest daily minimum temperature is -27 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1899; record precipitation of 1.19 inches in 1899; and a record snowfall of 10.5 inches in 2012.

Average dew point for December 9th is 11 degrees F, with a maximum of 36 degrees F in 2004 and a minimum of -25 degrees F in 1977.

All-time state records for December 9th The state record high temperature for this date is 74 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -39 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1909. State record precipitation for this date is 1.31 inches in downtown Minneapolis in 1899; and record snowfall is 17.0 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 2012.

Past Weather Features A winter storm brought fresh snow and very cold temperatures to the state in 1876. With a fresh cover of snow, the temperature fell to -30°F at Duluth and -27°F in the Twin Cities on December 9th. Temperatures warmed into the upper 30s F by the 11th.

Another significant storm brought lots of snow and cold the first week of December in 1909. This produced the coldest December 9th in state history as subzero temperatures were reported statewide. In the north several climate stations reported -30°F or colder, while in southern Minnesota Winnebago never saw the temperature rise above -7°F during the day, and at Hallock in the north the daytime high only reached -15°F/

A strong warm front brought a rare heavy December rainfall to the state over December 9-10, 1899. Many climate observers reported over an inch of rain, and some even reported hearing claps of thunder. Rainfall was reported as far north as Tower.

High pressure and plenty of sunshine dominated the first ten days of December 1939. This produced the warmest December 9th in history, as with absence of any snow cover temperatures soared into the 60s F at 25 Minnesota climate stations. Even in the northernmost areas of the state temperatures climbed into the 50s F.

A large winter storm blanketed the state with heavy snow over December 9-1, 1961. Most observers reported 4-10 inches, but in central Minnesota counties over a foot of snow fell and some roads were closed for a time.

Another major winter storm brought heavy snow and even blizzard conditions to the state over December 8-9, 2012. Portions of central Minnesota reported 15-17 inches of snow. The Twin Cities reported 10.5 inches of snow. Because of the high-water content of the snow and alternating freezing and thawing cycles secondary roads developed washboard ice conditions which made driving very bumpy.

Outlook Cold and snowy weekend coming up, especially for central and southern counties, where snow accumulations could be several inches over late Saturday and early Sunday. A chance for more snow on Monday night. Temperatures will remain colder than normal next week with even some subzero readings probable in southern Minnesota counties.

More Significant December Snowfalls Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 16, 2016 By Mark Seeley

A slow-moving low-pressure system brought another significant snowfall to the state this week over December 10-12. Many climate observers reported a storm total of 5 to 12 inches, and some daily snowfall records were set within the statewide observation network.

Some daily snowfall records reported for December 10, 2016: Amboy 2.5” Milan 1.5” MSP 2.0”

Some daily snowfall records reported for December 11, 2016: Bricelyn 5.5” Austin 6.6” Pipestone 4.5” Albert Lea 6.0” Hokah 6.0” Theilman 6.7” Red Wing 6.2” Canby 10.0” Dawson 9.0” Montevideo 8.0” Madison 7.4” Owatonna 7.0” Preston 5.3” Duluth 8.2”

Some daily snowfall records reported for December 12, 2016: New Hope 6.2” Litchfield 5.3”

In addition to the added snow cover, the trend for below normal temperatures has continued this week, now 9 consecutive days across most of the state. This is the longest spell of cooler than normal temperatures since mid-February of 2015. Some northern Minnesota climate stations fell to -20°F or colder this week, including Georgetown (Clay County), Orr (St Louis County), and Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County).

Snow cover around the state ranges from as little as 2 inches to over 12 inches in many northern counties. Despite the snow cover, frost depths in the soil have progressed over the past week and now range from 6 to 12 inches in most areas. Ice cover on area lakes is increasing as well with reports ranging mostly from 2 to 4 inches, but caution is still advised not to venture out on the ice yet.

Still, another significant snowfall is expected this weekend, this time with dangerous wind chill conditions and the coldest temperatures of the season. At least the outlook favors moderating temperatures for Christmas week and then the rest of the month.

New Seasonal Climate Outlooks The NOAA-Climate Prediction Center released new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday (Dec 15) of this week. The outlooks favor cooler than normal temperatures for most of Minnesota over the January through March period. The outlooks also favor wetter than normal as well, although primarily in the northern portions of the state, where a snowier winter looks probable.

Weekly Weather Potpourri At the AGU Annual Meeting in San Francisco this week NOAA scientists presented a climate report card for trends in the Arctic Region. The report states that the Arctic region is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet. Spring snow cover is diminished and rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet continues.

NOAA's Climate.Gov web site features an interesting article this week on studies of extreme weather event attribution and whether or not there are links to climate change. The article by Rebecca Lindsey dissects the process that scientists use to study the causes of weather and climate extremes. The article addresses some important questions for city managers and local units of government to consider.

David Schmidt from the University of Minnesota Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering pointed out two new information resources that may be useful to those working in agriculture and natural resource management. The first is a publication by the USDA entitled "Adaptation Resources for Agriculture", a 72 page document that covers climate adaptation in both cropping systems and animal agriculture systems. The second publication is also from the USDA and is titled "Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Planning Guide" and it is tailored to specific strategies in adapting animal systems to the changing climate. This guide is 20 pages long.

Another article this week from Nexus Media presents the case for using historical data and past responses to weather and climate extremes as a context for convincing conservative on climate that consideration of adaptation and mitigation strategies relative to climate change is time well spent. This article is written by Marlene Cimons.

An interesting study on satellite detection of soil moisture conditions was presented at the AGU (American Geophysical Union) Annual Meeting in San Francisco this week. Apparently satellite detection of soil moisture extremes (areas of drought and areas of super saturation) provides a good indicator of where power outages are likely to occur following severe storms. According to one of the authors, Steven Quiring of Ohio State University, the reasoning goes like this...."We see increased numbers of outages at both ends of the spectrum -- wherever soils are too wet or too dry,"...... Drought makes tree branches more likely to snap off, and over-saturation makes trees more likely to be uprooted." Thus, satellite assessment of soil moisture may be routinely used in anticipating the location potential of power outages when storms occur. You can read at the Science Daily web site.

MPR listener question I wait for the school bus in the morning with my son who is in 4th grade. He is complaining about the sub-zero temperatures in the morning and I told him that in my day we had to wait for the bus in many more sub-zero mornings than he has to put up with today. At least that is my perception. Am I correct?

Answer So far, we have recorded 4 subzero F morning readings this month in the Twin Cities Metro area. Given the forecast, we will have at least two more by early next week, for a total of six. Historically we have had Decembers that deliver up to 19 subzero F minimum temperatures (1876 and 1886), and conversely 14 Decembers, mostly recently last year have brought no subzero temperature readings in the month of December (recall last December was the warmest in state history).

Overall the number of subzero F temperature readings in the Twin Cities over the heating season (Nov-Mar) has ranged from 50 in 2013-2014 to just 2 in 2001-2002. The 145-year average is 28 days, but the trend is downward. The average for the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s was 31 days, and the average since 1991 was only been 20 days. So, you are correct to tell your son that you put up with more of them.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 16th The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 16th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 58 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1876; lowest daily minimum temperature is -22 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1889; record precipitation of 0.93 inches in 1894; and a record snowfall of 7.0 inches in 2000.

Average dew point for December 16th is 9 degrees F, with a maximum of 43 degrees F in 2001 and a minimum of -25 degrees F in 1963.

All-time state records for December 16th The state record high temperature for this date is 65 degrees F at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -39 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1903. State record precipitation for this date is 2.57 inches at Gunflint Lake (Cook County) in 1984; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) in 1940.

Past Weather Features By far the warmest December 16th in state history occurred in 1939. In the absence of snow and with bright sunshine and a southerly wind, daytime temperatures soared into the 50s F across most of the state. It was 55°F at Moorhead and 51°F at Grand Rapids. Further south 18 climate stations reported a high temperature in the 60s F. December of 1939 was the warmest in state history until last year, which set a new record.

A major winter storm dropped 4 to 14 inches of snowfall across the southern two-thirds of Minnesota over December 15-16, 1940. Schools were closed on Monday, the 16th in many southern Minnesota communities where snow drifted up to 4-5 feet.

December 16, 1963 was the coldest in state history with subzero temperature readings blanketing the entire landscape. Over 70 climate stations reported morning lows of - 20°F or colder, and 20 stations reported -30°F or colder. The high temperature never rose above -10°F at Campbell (Wilkin County).

A large, slow moving winter storm brought heavy mixed precipitation to the state over December 14-16, 1984. Many communities reported 1-2 inches of precipitation in the form of rain, sleet, and snow. Isle right near Lake Mille Lacs reported 3.39 inches, a huge amount for December.

Outlook Windy and cold over the weekend with blowing snow and dangerous wind chill values. Heaviest snow will be in southern parts of the state and could approach 10 or more inches. Very cold on Sunday, with temperatures remaining subzero all day in many areas. Moderation in temperatures will start on Monday with slight changes for snow. Temperatures will climb to normal levels or slightly above next week, ending the prolonged Cold Wave.

Weather and Climate Memories of 2016 Minnesota WeatherTalk, December 30, 2016 By Mark Seeley

A Synopsis and Some Headlines -Another warm winter prevailed early in the year, with a somewhat rare climate feature of having February as the snowiest month. -Warmth brought loss of soil frost the second week of March, along with early ice-out dates to area lakes. Swan Lake (Nicolett County) on March 13th, Starr Lake (Meeker County) on March 14th, and Lake Minnewaska (Pope County) on March 21st were among the ones reporting earliest ever loss of ice. -Minnesota reported 37 tornadoes in 2016, the first on May 25th in Pope County, and the last on September 9th in Beltrami County. The majority were short-lived and EF-0 rated ( winds 65-85 mph), and there were four storms rated EF-2 (winds 111-135 mph). -Early planting for Minnesota farmers, followed by a generally favorable growing season with mostly excellent crop yields around the state. -2016 was the first year ever to bring two mega-rain events (1000 square miles covered by 6 inches or greater) to the state: one in east-central counties over July 11-12; and one in west-central counties August 10-11. Widespread flash flooding resulted. -Latest ever autumn killing frost in the Twin Cities on November 18th -Tied for warmest ever autumn season (September-November) on a statewide basis with 1963. -Overall on a statewide basis 2016 delivered the 3rd warmest year in history to Minnesota (only 1987 and 2012 were warmer) and the 2nd wettest year (only 1977 was wetter).

Some Details of Climate Behavior in 2016 Within the Minnesota Cooperative Observer Climate Network (currently includes about 200 observers with historical climate measurements) the following table shows the number of times daily record values were tied or broken during each month of 2016: January: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 9 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 15 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 48 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 1 Highest Daily Precip: 31 February: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 70 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 14 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 71 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 3 Highest Daily Precip: 46 March: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 149 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 1 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 187 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Daily Precip: 66 April: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 21 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 20 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 38 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 27 Highest Daily Precip: 31 May: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 70 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 27 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 13 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 37 Highest Daily Precip: 25 June: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 26 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 7 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 26 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 4 Highest Daily Precip: 38 July: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 13 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 14 Highest

Minimum Daily Temp: 50 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 12 Highest Daily Precip: 93 August: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 4 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 4 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 18 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 2 Highest Daily Precip: 108 September: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 5 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 60 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Daily Precip: 96 October: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 19 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 27 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Daily Precip: 59 November: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 182 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 106 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 0 Highest Daily Precip: 53 December: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 8 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 14 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 15 Lowest Minimum Daily Temp: 34 Highest Daily Precip: 79

Total daily record climate values tied or set within the observer network in Minnesota during 2016: Highest Maximum Daily Temp: 576 Lowest Maximum Daily Temp: 116 Highest Minimum Daily Temp: 639 Lowest Daily Minimum Temp: 120 Highest Daily Precip: 725.

For combination of warmth and wetness, 2016 was unrivaled in the Minnesota climate records. Several climate stations reported their warmest year in history including: Ada (Norman County), Argyle (Marshall County), Detroit Lakes (Becker County), Itasca State Park (Clearwater County), Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County), Baudette (Lake of the Woods County), Brimson (St Louis County), Browns Valley (Traverse County), Rothsay (Wilkin County), Cloquet (Carlton County), Milaca (Mille Lacs County), St James (Watonwan County), St Peter (Nicollet County), Theilman (Wabasha County), and Zumbrota (Goodhue County). Among larger cities it ranked as a warm year as well: 3rd warmest at Rochester, International Falls, and the Twin Cities; 4th warmest at St Cloud; and 5th warmest at Duluth.

Several climate stations also reported their wettest year of record in 2016, including: Hawley (Clay County) with 32.92", Eveleth (St Louis County) with 36.56", Wolf Ridge (Lake County) with 39.47", Aitkin (Aitkin County) with 40.21", Brainerd (Crow Wind County) with 39.77", MSP with 40.32", University of Minnesota St Paul Campus (Ramsey County) with 41.67", Redwood Falls (Redwood Falls) with 44.12", Amboy (Blue Earth County) with 46.86", Faribault (Rice County) with 46.39", Owatonna (Steele County) with 48.40", St James (Watonwan County) with 52.55", Waseca (Waseca County) with 56.24" (a new state record), Austin (Mower County) with 48.35", Harmony (Fillmore County) with 49.36", and Theilman (Wabasha County) with 48.33".

More details about the major weather events during the year 2016 can be found at the DNR-State Climatology Office web site.

Retirement Salutations in 2016 For myself and all of those involved in Minnesota weather and climate matters we saw two very important colleagues walk into retirement during 2016. Greg Spoden, DNR State Climatologist was a trusted and professional colleague in the DNR for well over 30 years. He contributed many of the display and analysis tools that we still use today. Jean Spohr of the University of Minnesota West-Central Research and Outreach Center in Morris kept us informed of the daily weather data there for well over 30 years. She was always helpful and meticulous looking after one of the oldest continuous climate records in Minnesota (dating back to 1885. We will miss them both and wish them well.

Weekly Weather Potpourri NOAA's Tom Di Liberto features a nice article about lake effect snowfall at the climate.gov web site this week. There have been a number of lake effect snowfalls this month around the Great Lakes Region, dropping from 2 to 3 feet of snow in many places. Most of the Great Lakes Region has little or no ice cover yet this season.

The AGU published an interesting article this week about using 40-years of Landsat images to examine changes in the Greenland ice sheet. Much of the analysis shows accelerated loss due to increasing temperatures.

The UK Met Office projects that 2017 will be another warmer than normal year globally, but not record-setting like 2015 and 2016 were. On balance 2017 is expected to follow trend line projections of warmth in the Earth climate system.

University of California-San Diego scientists have developed new controls for instrumented balloons that can fly in Hurricanes and survive long enough to transmit their data back so that meteorologists can use the in situ measurements to update their forecasts. This special technology may be most cost-effectively applied during the next hurricane season.

MPR listener question The thunder and rain on Christmas Day this year was highly unusual. How many locations in Minnesota reported record rainfall or precipitation for the date?

Answer According to NOAA-National Weather Service reports 10 communities received record- setting rainfall on Christmas Day. They were: Glenwood (0.40"), Milan (0.50"), Redwood Falls (0.50"), Hibbing (0.52"), Alexandria (0.62"), Artichoke Lake (0.65"), St Cloud (0.74"), Grand Rapids (0.77"), and Moose Lake (0.92"). The Twin Cities (MSP Airport) reported 0.97 inches, the 2nd highest amount ever received on Christmas Day behind 1.35 inches in 1982.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 30th

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 30th MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 2004; lowest daily maximum temperature of -6 degrees F in 1976; lowest daily minimum temperature is -20 degrees F in 1973; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 0.39 inches in 1884; and a record snowfall of 4.0 inches in 1906.

Average dew point for December 30th is 10 degrees F, with a maximum of 46 degrees F in 2004 and a minimum of -32 degrees F in 1976.

All-time state records for December 30th The state record high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1999. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1910. State record precipitation for this date is 2.00 inches at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1936; and record snowfall is 14.2 inches at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1887.

Past Weather Features A winter storm dominated the New Years in 1887. It started on December 30th and went through January 1, 1888 bringing several inches of snow to southern Minnesota. Some observers reported over a foot, with temperatures that plummeted to subzero readings afterward.

An Arctic air mass settled over northern Minnesota on December 30, 1910. Many northern communities saw temperatures fall into the minus 30s F. It was colder than - 40°F at Warroad, Roseau, and Little Fork.

A series of winter storms brought a mixture of precipitation over 8 consecutive days to end the year 1936. Over the December 24-31 period many climate observers reported from 6 to 17 inches of snowfall and winds caused 4–5-foot drifts.

Another slow-moving winter storm brought a very wet ending to the year 1972. Over December 29-31 many climate observers reported from 8 to 20 inches of snowfall, and some New Year’s events were cancelled because travel was so difficult across northern Minnesota.

Arctic air again dominated Minnesota on December 30, 1990 with subzero readings all over the state. In the north it was as cold as -40°F (at Fosston, Cass Lake, and Thorhult), while in the south it was as cold as -22°F at Lake Wilson (Murray County).

By far the warmest December 30th in state history occurred in 1999. Many communities saw record-setting afternoon temperatures in the 50s F.

Outlook Warmer than normal temperatures over the weekend under partly cloudy skies. Some snow flurries in northern counties Saturday. Increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow on Monday, especially in southern counties. Continued chance for snow Tuesday, then cooler than normal temperatures for the balance of next week, but generally dry weather.