Eastern Focus ISSUE 01 | Spring 2019 A project by GlobalFocus Center, Bucharest Elections and Malign INTERFERENCE Populism - Illiberalism - Cultural wars – Identity politics Reframing geopolitical competition: a battle for infuence and narrative EU in the Western Balkans: What’s left of the sticks if the carrots are stale? The return of traditional great power strategy COVER STORIES Sir Julian King, Ann Mettler, Doru Franțescu, Dani Sandu, Claudia Ciobanu, Codru Vrabie, Bogdan Dima, Andrej Matišák, Martin Ehl, Iulia Joja DOSSIER Jasmin Mujanović, Ana-Maria Luca, Kristof Bender INTERVIEW Dimitar Bechev, Nikola Dimitrov, Elbridge Colby. Table of Contents About Eastern Focus A focus on Central-Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and the Balkans, in a transatlantic key Bucharest-based English-language quarterly bringing regional voices, ideas and topics to the great debates of today. Shedding light on regional developments. Anchored in democratic values. Delivered straight to the movers’ and shakers’ inboxes across Europe, America and globally. Connecting people across geographies and thought bubbles. Oana Popescu: Iulia Joja (Berlin): Editorial Manifesto/ Raison d’être ___________ p.004 Exploring Putin’s strategic narrative _______ p.086 Interview Dimitar Bechev (North Carolina): Elections and malign Orbán as an export product – and the high interference / 008 demand in South-East Europe! _______________ p.094 Sir Julian King, Ann Mettler (Brussels): Election interference in the digital age – EU in the Western Balkans: building resilience to cyber-enabled What’s left of the sticks if the threats in the EU ___________________________________ p.010 carrots are stale? / 100 Doru Franțescu (Brussels): Jasmin Mujanović (North Carolina): European elections: How results in CEE can be “A time of monsters once more”: The danger decisive for the direction of Europe _________ p.018 of losing the Western Balkans _________________ p.102 Ana-Maria Luca (Bucharest): Populism - Illiberalism - Cultural wars - Europe’s blind spot: the streets rising up Identity politics / 026 against local autocrats____________________________ p.108 Dani Sandu (Florence): There isn’t just one cause for populism, Kristof Bender (Vienna): there’s a whole Google of them _______________ p.028 Time to learn from what has worked ________ p.114 Claudia Ciobanu (Warsaw): ‘ Interview Nikola Dimitrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, New World Order’: The “natural family” Republic of North Macedonia (Skopje): franchise goes global _____________________________ p.038 “The EU accession process is a coaching exercise to transform North Macedonia into Codru Vrabie (Bucharest): Romania’s permeability to a proper European democracy” _______________ p.118 authoritarian tendencies ________________________ p.050 The return of traditional great Bogdan Dima (Bucharest): The resilience of systems of government power strategy / 122 Interview Elbridge Colby (Washington): against populists’ autocratic legalism_______ p.062 “The US has an enduring interest in preventing Andrej Matišák (Bratislava): Europe from falling under a potentially Slovakia: Voters’ burning desire hostile hegemon” ___________________________________ p.124 for change? ___________________________________________ p.072 Reframing geopolitical competition: a battle for infuence and narrative / 078 Martin Ehl (Prague): To play with China might be dangerous for Central Europe_________________________________ p.080 Eastern Focus Issue 01, Spring 2019 Editorial Manifesto/ Raison d’être EasternFocus is an international affairs magazine focusing on Central and Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and the Western Balkans, which aims to bring all the contradictions of the region into meaningful conversation. This quarterly is a new project by the GlobalFocus Center, an independent foreign policy and strategic analysis think-tank based in Bucharest. Its aim is to bring Romanian and regional perspectives onto matters that define the world of today, and facilitate the integration of themes and voices from the region into the international circuit of ideas and debates that matter. The themes covered include foreign affairs, regional dynamics, politics, economy, business and trade, society, art and culture, technology and innovation, media, communication and creative spaces. © Photo by Steluța Popescu Oana Popescu @OanaPope Editor-in-chief, Director GlobalFocus Center 004 Oana Popescu: Editorial Manifesto/ Raison d’être The editorial concept adopts a liberal, Euro-Atlantic angle – but encourages the balanced, open, substantive debate of opposites. It embraces constructive controversy, aiming to reflect a diversity of viewpoints and reach across the ‘thought bubbles’ to draw them into a genuine conversation. This first issue makes its debut with a dossier on Elections and Malign Interference. The primary reason for this lies in the immediacy of the problem, whose first impact may become apparent in the upcoming European elections. The problem though is both older and wider: a study of the Black Sea region’s permeability to propaganda and malign influence, published by the GlobalFocus Center, revealed The editorial concept adopts a structural vulnerabilities, divisions liberal, Euro-Atlantic angle – and resilience gaps in our social, political, economic and foreign but encourages the balanced, policy/security systems, a ‘treasure trove’ of similar challenges shared open, substantive debate of across the region and well beyond opposites. It embraces con- it, which can be used by internal and external disruptors against structive controversy, aiming the state and society, aggravating existing problems to undermine to refect a diversity of view- good governance, prosperity, points and reach across the citizens’ trust in democracy or confidence in allies – something ‘thought bubbles’ to draw them for which modern technology, as well as the current state of into a genuine conversation. society and the global order, offers ample cost-effective, high-impact opportunities. We found that the same weaknesses which find us unprepared and unaware in the face of hostile actors, underscore the current trends toward illiberalism, populism, social conservatism and radicalism, which are not limited to our region, but are already wreaking havoc across it. This first issue explores the problem, attempts to explain 005 Eastern Focus Issue 01, Spring 2019 some of its causes, reveal some of the nuances personal coffers – stay open to the inflow of and, at a minimum, offer some food for thought global money. with regard to future prospects. But populists and illiberals don’t operate only EU Commissioner Sir Julian King and EPSC within the confines of politics. Warsaw-based Director Ann Mettler outline the view of the reporter Claudia Ciobanu describes the intricate European Commission: people, protection, web of influence, money and interests that sees pockets, platforms. In brief, increase citizens’ American evangelists, the Vatican and Central resilience; protect the ‘critical infrastructure’ and East European politicians cooperate in of our democracy; invest in quality journalism instrumentalising the anxiety and apprehension and fact-checking; and negotiate with the of those who feel that their traditional values tech platforms to share responsibility for the may be under attack from modern, traceability and accountability of information post-material values. and the detection of fakes. Two things in particular are spelled out: democracy will work Against the background of this demand-side only if citizens have access to information; and model that helps explain the success of the the greater transparency of sources does not illiberal movements, public administration mean that a government or other authority gets expert Codru Vrabie quotes comedian John to decide what is true and what is false. Oliver to show that the toolkit of autocrats is so basic that even the simple wisdom of pop VoteWatch Europe’s co-founder Doru Franțescu culture has made sense of it; he uses this system explains with names and numbers how the of reference to demonstrate why Romania may dynamics of influence will change in the have been more resilient in front of the anti- European Parliament after EU elections and – at democratic backlash for a while, but could catch some point (?) – Brexit: the fringes are coming up fast in the near future. Constitutional expert to the fore but are unlikely to coalesce; mostly Bogdan Dima puts a name on it, and pins down influential in the big mainstream groups EPP and the strategy to ‘autocratic legalism’: the process S&D (now heading for a fall), MEPs from Central- of seizing and centralising power by working Eastern Europe (CEE) may still tilt the balance within the rules and gradually changing them in the crucial negotiation battlefields which lie to fit the purpose. Using democracy against ahead, such as IT&C and trade. democracy, CEE autocrats invoke the legitimacy of the popular mandate entrusted to them at Sociologist Dani Sandu, revealing some of the the polls to control the courts and the judiciary, causes behind the rise of populism, says it loud to change electoral laws and secure stronger, and clear: no, those who vote for populists don’t ultimately unrestrained authority over civil really believe they will deliver more prosperity. society and freedoms. A nationalistic, sovereign, However, voters do hope that they may level EU-bashing discourse is the natural cherry on the playing field by dismantling the economic top. Read the article to find