Status Assessment for the Cape Sable Orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum)

Version 1.2

Photo by Keith Bradley

Prepared by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service South Florida Ecological Services Office 1339 20th Street, Vero Beach, FL 32960

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Cape Sable orchid Species Status Assessment Team.

We would also like to recognize and thank the following individuals who provided substantive information and/or insights for our SSA. Valuable input into the analysis and reviews of a draft of this document were provided by Jimi Sadle, and Hong Liu. We appreciate their input and comments, which resulted in a more robust status assessment and final report.

Suggested reference:

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2020. Species status assessment report for Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum). Version 1.2. August 2020. Atlanta, GA.

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VERSION UPDATES

Changes from Version 1.0 to Version 1.2 are the following:

• We added more detailed maps of worldwide occurrence records for Cape Sable orchid.

• In the Summary and Conclusions, we added text to emphasize the synergistic relationship between SLR, saltwater intrusion, and storm surge events.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Species Status Assessment presents a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial data for Cape Sable orchid.

Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) is widely distributed in Mexico, Central and South America, and the West Indies (Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Lesser Antilles). In Florida, Cape Sable orchid is rare, occurring at one site, Everglades National Park (ENP), in Monroe County (Gann 2014, p.1). The current population size at ENP is estimated at 500 to 1,000 (Gann 2015, p.10). The Florida population is considered one representative unit. Florida is the most northerly occurrence of the species worldwide.

Cape Sable orchid is listed as endangered by the State of Florida. The species is listed as ‘critically imperiled’ in Florida by the Florida Natural Areas Inventory ([FNAI] 2018, p.9). The ‘global rank’ of the species is classified as ‘apparently secure’, defined as ‘uncommon but not rare’, with some causes for concern due to declines or other factors by NatureServe (NatureServe 2017, p.1). A recent publication included it as a ‘Species of Management Concern’ in ENP (Gann 2105, p.10).

The stressors on the species and its habitats are habitat loss and modification due to sea level rise (SLR), saltwater intrusion, and increasing storm surge impacts. Loss of habitat to development, poaching, and predation by insects are factors for the species but do not rise to the level of stressor for the purposes of this SSA. We analyzed 3 scenarios incorporating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ‘Intermediate’ (scenario A-decreasing greenhouse gases (GHG) in 2060), ‘Intermediate-High’ (scenario B-(decreasing GHG in 2080), and ‘High’ (scenario C (Business as Usual) projected rates of SLR National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration ([NOAA] 2017, pp. 21-28), and projected increase in hurricane intensity to forecast the future viability of the species for 10 generations or approximately 80 years (to 2100). We also consider increased storm surge and saltwater intrusion to project the timing of vegetation changes that precede inundation. In all of the scenarios, the main driver of species viability is habitat loss and modification due to sea level rise, storm surge, and saltwater intrusion.

Scenario A projects SLR of 3.3 feet (ft) (1 meter (m)) and forecasts inundation of the coastal habitat occupied by the sole population at ENP by 2100. We anticipate significant effects to the species as early as 2050, and extirpation of the species in Florida as early as 2070, under Scenario C (the most likely scenario).

However, the species is likely to persist through SLR outside of Florida because it occurs at higher elevations of 30 to 3,100 ft (10 to 950 m) (Tropicos 2017, p.1) and more inland locations outside the United States, although we did not have information to analyze and determine the effect of other possible stressors.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... v SUMMARY OF CHANGES FROM VERSION 1.0 TO VERSION 1.1 ...... vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ...... 1 CHAPTER 2: SPECIES RESOURCE NEEDS AND POPULATIONS ...... 2 SPECIES DESCRIPTION ...... 2 ...... 2 Life History ...... 2 HABITAT ...... 4 Historical Range and Distribution ...... 5 INDIVIDUAL NEEDS ...... 5 Microsites for Growth and Reproduction ...... 5 POPULATION NEEDS ...... 5 Delineating Populations ...... 5 Undisturbed Natural Areas ...... 5 Hydrology ...... 5 Pollinators ...... 5 SPECIES’ NEEDS ...... 6 Habitat and Species Migration Corridors and Translocation ...... 6 CHAPTER 3: CURRENT CONDITIONS ...... 6 Current Distribution ...... 6 How This SSA Defines a Resilient Population ...... 6 Population Trends ...... 6 CHAPTER 4: FACTORS AFFECTING THE VIABILITY OF THE SPECIES ...... 13 STRESSORS ...... 13 Habitat Destruction and Modification ...... 13 Habitat Fragmentation ...... 13 Hydrologic Modification ...... 13 Small Population Size and Isolation ...... 13 Nonnative Competition ...... 13 Poaching ...... 14 CLIMATE CHANGE-ASSOCIATED FACTORS ...... 14 Scenarios, Models, and Uncertainty ...... 14 Increased Temperature ...... 14 Sea Level Rise ...... 14 Storm Surge...... 14 Saltwater Intrusion ...... 15

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Sea Level Rise Scenarios ...... 15 Ecological Implications for Sea Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion ...... 16 STOCHASTIC EVENTS ...... 16 Hurricanes and Storm Surge ...... 17 Drought ...... 17 Freeze Events ...... 17 Ecological Implications for Stochastic Events ...... 17 ONGOING CONSERVATION ACTIONS ...... 18 CHAPTER 5: SPECIES’ FUTURE CONDITION ...... 18 SCENARIO RESULTS ...... 23 All Scenarios ...... 23 Scenario A ...... 23 Scenario B ...... 23 Scenario C ...... 23 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 24

LITERATURE CITED ...... 25

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Figure 1-1. Species Status Assessment Framework...... 2

Figure 2-1. The orchid life cycle (adapted from Telapova et al. 2018, entire) ...... 3

Figure 3-1. The current and historical range of the Cape Sable orchid in Florida ...... 9

Figure 3-2. The worldwide range of the Cape Sable orchid...... 10

Table 3-1. Number of Cape Sable orchid populations by region worldwide ...... 11

Table 3-2. Summary of the known populations of Cape Sable orchid worldwide ...... 11

Table 4-1: Historical and projected sea level rise (SLR) through 2100 ...... 16

Table 5-1. Scenarios used to analyze the future viability of the Cape Sable orchid in Florida .....20

Table 5-2. Summary of projected SLR in feet (ft) and meters (m) by decade to 2100 ...... 20

Figure 5-1. Sea level rise curve for Everglades National Park Scenarios used to analyze the future viability of the Cape Sable orchid ...... 21

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Table 5-3. Summary of acreage and percentages of habitat loss at sites that support Cape Sable orchid from SLR by depth (irrespective of time), and by percentage of site using Scenarios A, B, and C at 2100 ...... 21

Figure 5-1. Sites currently supporting Cape Sable orchid, showing SLR projections for Scenarios A (GHG reductions by 2060), B (GHG reductions by 2080), and C (no GHG reductions / business as usual) ...... 24

Figure 5-2. Range of the Cape Sable orchid with 3 feet of sea level rise (Scenario A) ...... 24

Table 5-4. Summary of extant populations at 2100 under Scenario A, B, and C (A = GHG reductions by 2060, B = GHG reductions by 2080, C = No GHG reductions by 2100 (‘business as usual’) ...... 26

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Cape Sable Orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) Species Status Assessment Report

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

In the United States, Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) occurs only in Monroe County, Florida. Outside the United States, the distributional range of the orchid extends into Mexico, Central America, northern South America, and the West Indies. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) was petitioned to list the Cape Sable orchid as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act) on April 20, 2010, by the Center for Biological Diversity. In September of 2011, the Service found that the petition presented substantial scientific or commercial information indicating that the listing of the species may be warranted. The Species Status Assessment (SSA) framework is intended to be an in-depth review of the species’ biology and threats, an evaluation of its biological status, and an assessment of the resources and conditions needed to maintain long-term viability. The intent is for the SSA Report to be easily updated as new information becomes available and to support all functions of the Endangered Species Program from Candidate Assessment to Listing to Consultations to Recovery. As such, the SSA Report will be a living document upon which other documents, such as listing rules, recovery plans, and 5-year reviews, would be based if the species warrants listing under the ESA.

This SSA Report for Cape Sable orchid is intended to provide the biological support for the decision on whether to propose to list the species as threatened or endangered and, if so, whether to and where to propose designating critical habitat. Importantly, the SSA Report does not result in a decision by the Service on whether this taxon should be proposed for listing as a threatened or endangered species under the Act. Instead, this SSA Report provides a review of the best available scientific and commercial information strictly related to the biological status of Cape Sable orchid. The listing decision will be made by the Service after reviewing this document and all relevant laws, regulations, and policies, and if warranted for listing, the results of a proposed decision will be announced in the Federal Register, with appropriate opportunities for public input.

For the purpose of this assessment, we generally define viability as the ability of the species to sustain populations in its range of native habitats beyond a biologically meaningful timeframe, in this case, 80 years. We chose 80 years because of the generation time of Cape Sable orchid (~8 years) encompasses approximately 10 generations, allowing enough time to detect the species response to stressors. Additionally, it is within the range of the available climate change models (see NOAA 2017, entire). Using the SSA framework (Figure 1.1),, we consider what the species needs to maintain viability by characterizing the status of the species in terms of its resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Wolf et al. 2015, entire).

• Resiliency is having sufficiently large populations for the species to withstand stochastic events (arising from random factors). We can measure resiliency based on metrics of population health; for example, birth versus death rates and population size. Resilient populations are better able to withstand disturbances such as random fluctuations in birth rates (demographic

viii stochasticity), variations in rainfall (environmental stochasticity), or the effects of anthropogenic activities.

• Redundancy is having a sufficient number of populations for the species to withstand catastrophic events (such as a rare destructive natural event or episode involving many populations). Redundancy is about spreading the risk and can be measured through the duplication and distribution of populations across the range of the species. The greater the number of populations a species has distributed over a larger landscape, the better it can withstand catastrophic events.

• Representation is having the breadth of genetic makeup of the species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Representation can be measured through the genetic diversity within and among populations and the ecological diversity (also called environmental variation or diversity) of Figure 1.1 Species Status Assessment populations across the species’ range. The more Framework. representation, or diversity, a species has, the more it is capable of adapting to changes (natural or human caused) in its environment. In the absence of species-specific genetic and ecological diversity information, we evaluate representation based on the extent and variability of habitat characteristics within the geographical range.

To evaluate the biological status of Cape Sable orchid both currently and into the future, we assessed a range of conditions to allow us to consider the species’ resiliency, redundancy, and representation (together, the 3Rs). This SSA Report provides a thorough assessment of biology and natural history and assesses demographic risks, threats, and limiting factors in the context of determining the viability and risks of extinction for the species. For the purposes of this SSA, we consider Cape Sable orchid a single representative unit in Florida. Available information is insufficient to determine representative units outside the US.

The format for this SSA Report includes: (1) resource needs of individuals and populations (Chapter 2); (2) Cape Sable orchid historical distribution and a framework for what the species needs in terms of the distribution of resilient populations across its range for species viability (Chapter 3); (3) a review of the likely causes of the current and future status of the species \ which of these risk factors affect the species’ viability and to what degree (Chapter 4); and (4) a concluding description of the viability in terms of resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Chapter 5). This document is a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial information and a description of past, present, and likely future risk factors to Cape Sable orchid.

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CHAPTER 2. SPECIES RESOURCE NEEDS AND POPULATIONS

Species Description Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) ( – Orchid Family) is an epiphytic, lithophytic (growing on rock substrate), or sometimes terrestrial herbaceous plant. Individuals consist of a shoot with one to several tough, leathery, folded . Reproductive individuals produce a large, showy, many-flowered inflorescence with glossy brown to yellow-green that are marked with brown. The plants can reach a height of 1-5 meters (m) (3.3 feet [ft]) when in (North American Orchid Conservation Center [NAOCC] 2017, pp. 1-5; Luer 1972, p. 262; Brown 2002, p. 284).

Taxonomy The name Trichocentrum undulatum is the accepted name for the taxon (Integrated Taxonomic Information System [ITIS] 2017, entire; Wunderlin et al. 2017, entire; Ackerman and Chase 2003, p. 649).

Life History Cape Sable orchid is a long-lived perennial with a typical orchid life cycle (See Figure 2-1). Mature Cape Sable orchid plants usually produce flowers from April through October (Ackerman and Chase 2001, p. 225. All orchids produce capsules containing thousands of miniscule seeds that are dispersed by wind.

For successful recruitment, the seed requires a suitable host fungi to be present where they land. After successful germination on a suitable host substrate (see Habitat, below), seedlings grow for several years before reaching maturity (monopodial growth). The exact number of years is not known, but likely depends on resource availability (principally light and water). After approximately 10 years, adult plants may consist of many stems arising from axils and the plant’s base. Individual plant lifespan is unknown, but is likely many years to decades (perhaps many decades), due to continuous vegetative generation of pseudo-bulbs (sympodial growth) (Figure 2-1).

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Figure 2-1. The life cycle of an orchid (adapted from Telapova et al. 2018, entire).

Habitat

United States of America (USA) - Florida In Florida, Cape Sable orchid occurs as an epiphyte on the branches or trunk of canopy trees and occasionally standing dead wood (snags) primarily in buttonwood hammock and to a small

xi extent in mangrove swamp habitat. The species historically occurred in coastal berm and rockland hammock habitat. Cape Sable orchid has not been observed growing on rock substrate in Florida (FNAI 2000, entire; Sadle pers. comm. 2012; Gann et.al. 2017, entire).

Buttonwood Hammock Forests dominated by buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus) often exist in upper tidal areas, especially where mangrove swamp transitions to rockland or coastal hardwood hammock. These buttonwood forests have canopy dominated by buttonwood and often have an understory dominated by sea oxeye daisy (Borrichia frutescens), Christmasberry ( carolinianum), and sea lavender ( carolinianum) (FNAI 2010, p. 4). Temperature, salinity, tidal fluctuation, substrate, and wave energy influence the size and extent of buttonwood forests (FNAI 2010, p. 3). The system is brackish, and may be flooded daily to monthly during high tides. Salinity limits the seaward expansion of buttonwood forests. Buttonwood forests often grade into salt marsh, coastal berm, rockland hammock, coastal hardwood hammock, and coastal rock barren (FNAI 2010, p. 203).

Mangrove Swamp Mangrove swamp occurs in flat coastal areas along saline or brackish portions of rivers, the edges of low-energy estuaries (Wunderlin and Hansen 2000), and the seaward fringes of salt marshes and rockland hammocks. Soils are generally anaerobic and are saturated with brackish water at all times, becoming inundated during high tides. Mangrove swamps are dense forests dominated by red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle), black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (), and buttonwood. These four species can occur either in mixed stands or often in differentiated, monospecific zones that reflect varying degrees of tidal influence, levels of salinity, and types of substrate. Mangroves typically occur in dense stands but may be sparse, particularly in upper tidal reaches where salt marsh species predominate. Mangroves most commonly reach heights of 10 to 20 feet tall (3 to 7 m) (FNAI 2010, p.201-204).

Mangrove swamps in Florida occur along both coasts where they are buffered by barrier island formations. Nearly two-thirds of the mangrove swamp in Florida occurs within ENP. Though mangrove swamps help protect other inland communities by absorbing the brunt of tropical storms and hurricanes and by preventing coastal erosion, these storm events and periodic freezing temperatures have an influence on the stature of mangrove species and generally drive succession within mangrove swamps. Often when canopy damage is incurred following a storm event, new mangrove propagules regenerate in their place. However, there are examples in ENP where, after catastrophic storm events, mangrove swamp areas do not always regenerate to their historical state. Following the catastrophic damage caused by Hurricane Donna in 1960, areas of former mangrove swamp remained for decades as mud flats. Storms can also move sand into mangroves in overwash areas and kill trees. Mangrove swamps are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts such as SLR and the increasing intensity of hurricanes and storm surge (FNAI 2010, pp.201-204).

Coastal Berm Coastal berms are deposited by storm waves along low-energy coasts. Coastal berm is a short forest or shrub thicket found on long, narrow, storm-deposited ridges of loose sediment formed

xii by a mixture of coarse shell fragments, pieces of coralline algae, and other coastal debris. These ridges parallel the shore and may be found on the seaward edge or landward edge of the mangroves or farther inland depending on the height of the storm surge that formed them. They range in height from 30 to 305 cm (1 to 10 ft). Tall berms may be the product of repeated storm deposition. Structure and composition of the vegetation is variable depending on height and time since the last storm event. The most stable berms may share some tree species with rockland hammocks. Tree species may include Bursera simaruba (gumbo limbo), Coccoloba uvifera (seagrape), Coccothrinax argentata (silver palm), Guapira discolor (blolly), Drypetes diversifolia (milkbark), Genipa clusiifolia (seven year apple), and (poisonwood) (FNAI 2010, pp. 81-82).

Rockland Hammock Rockland hammock is a species-rich tropical hardwood forest on upland sites in areas where limestone is very near the surface and often exposed. Rockland hammocks typically have larger, more mature trees in the interior. Rockland hammock occurs on a thin layer of highly organic soil covering limestone on high ground that does not regularly flood, but it is often dependent upon a high water table to keep humidity levels high. Rockland hammocks are frequently located near wetlands; in the Everglades they can occur on organic matter that accumulates on top of the underlying limestone. Rockland hammocks rarely flood (except in cases of storm surge) and typically do not retain standing water except in sinkholes (FNAI 2010, pp. 29-32).

Rockland hammock is susceptible to fire, frost, canopy disruption, and ground water reduction. Rockland hammock can be the advanced successional stage of pine rockland, especially in cases where rockland hammock is adjacent to pine rockland. In such cases, when fire is excluded from pine rockland for 15 to 25 years, it can succeed to rockland hammock vegetation. Historically, rockland hammocks in south Florida evolved with fire in the landscape. Fire most often extinguished near the edges when it encountered the hammock’s moist microclimate and litter layer. However, rockland hammocks are susceptible to damage from fire during extreme drought or when the water table is lowered. In these cases, fire can cause orchid and host tree mortality and consume the organic soil layer. Rockland hammocks are also sensitive to the strong winds and storm surge associated with hurricanes. Canopy damage often occurs, which causes a change in the microclimate of the hammock causing more exposed, hotter, and drier conditions. Decreased relative humidity and drier soils make rockland hammocks more susceptible to fire (FNAI 2010, pp. 29-32).

Outside of the USA Elsewhere in its range Cape Sable orchid occurs in the understory of mesic hilly broadleaf forests, montane rain forest, and cloud forests, on tree trunks, rocks, or in leaf mold on limestone rocks at elevation from 30 to 3,100 ft (10 to 950 m) (Tropicos 2017, entire; Gann 2015, p. 116; Ackerman and Chase 2003, p. 649).

Historical Range and Distribution

USA - Florida In the USA, Cape Sable orchid is known from south Florida (Figure 3-1). The documented historical range of Cape Sable orchid included coastal areas of the Cape Sable and Flamingo

xiii region of ENP (Monroe County) and Royal Palm Hammock in ENP (Collier County), with the latter last observed in 1916. All other records are from areas that are now part of ENP. A single plant known growing at Fuchs Hammock Preserve (Miami-Dade County) was moved there by a member of the Fuchs family (Gann 2014, p. 1). A record for the species on Lignumvitae Key was reported in error (Duquesnel pers. comm. 2017; Gann et.al. 2017, entire). Cape Sable orchid is cultivated in South Florida in botanical gardens and by enthusiasts, but has not been recorded naturalizing outside of its natural range (Gann 2015, p. 117).

Outside of the USA Cape Sable orchid has been collected in Mexico, Central America, northern South America, and the West Indies (Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Lesser Antilles) (Figure 3-2). Records exist for Cape Sable orchid in at least 17 countries including Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Guatamala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela, French Guiana, Surinam, Guyana and Brazil (Appendix I) (Global Biodiversity Information Facility ([GBIF] 2018, entire; Tropicos 2017, entire; Ackerman and Chase 2003, p. 649).

SPECIES’ ECOLOGICAL NEEDS

INDIVIDUAL NEEDS

Microsites for Growth and Reproduction All life stages of Cape Sable orchid require suitable substrate (usually a host tree or rock), partial sun exposure, nearly continual high humidity, and the absence of freezing temperatures. These conditions are found in epiphytic microhabitats in coastal berm, buttonwood hammock, and rockland hammock vegetation (Florida), rain forests (West Indies, Mexico), and cloud forests (Central and South America). The plants grow on tree trunks or branches. Seeds must germinate on a suitable host tree species. Known host trees in Florida include buttonwood and live oak. Outside the USA, Cape Sable orchid is observed to associate with a wide range of host tree species throughout its range in Cuba and occasionally grows on rocks (Liu pers. comm. 2017). As with all orchids, germinating seeds require the presence of symbiotic fungal species in order to grow to maturity.

POPULATION NEEDS

Delineating Populations For the purposes of this analysis, there is one population in Florida, located in ENP, which we consider in our analysis of resiliency, redundancy, and representation.

Outside Florida, occurrence data are plentiful but dated, with few observations since 2000. Our analysis of international populations is based on collection localities and observations reported in the GBIF (2018, entire) and Tropicos (2017, entire) databases; the limited data provided about Cuba we received from experts in Florida (Liu pers. comm. 2017); and in a single letter from a scientific authority in Jamaica (Jamaica CITES Authority pers. comm. 2018). We consider each unique locality where the plant was collected to be a population.

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Undisturbed Natural Areas The single site in Florida where Cape Sable orchid is extant is ENP, the largest natural area in conservation in Florida at 1,507,850 acres (ac). However, only a small percentage (perhaps 5 percent) of the total acreage is suitable habitat for Cape Sable orchid. Outside the USA, most populations are in natural areas, and some are in National Parks or other conservation areas. We have no information about the condition or management of those areas.

Pollinators The species is capable of self-fertilization, but needs pollinators to transport pollen and set fruit. Although the plants can self-pollinate, insect pollinators provide for beneficial genetic mixing and generally increase seed production and progeny vigor in self-compatible plant species. Low rates of pollination have been reported for Cape Sable orchid (Higgins and Gann 2007, pp.141- 146), suggesting that pollinators may be few or missing. Gann (2015, p. 117) also reported observations of low pollination rates in the coastal population at ENP.

Cape Sable orchid is likely to be an obligate insect pollinated plant, as most Trichocentrum are pollinated by bees. Large bees have been observed visiting flowers in coastal populations (Sadle pers. comm. 2012). The flowers mimic the shape and color of flowers of the family Malpighiaceae, which are attractive to bees in the Centris. However, no member of the Malpighiaceae is known to grow with Cape Sable orchid within the majority of its historical range in South Florida, except Long Key locustberry (Byrsonima lucida), which occurs in the Long Pine Key area of ENP. This suggests that other pollinators are presumably involved in pollinating Florida populations (Gann 2015, p. 116). The carpenter bee (Xylocopa micans) has been observed visiting flowers of the Cape Sable orchid. It is likely that this and other big body bees such as Centris errans (native and rare) and Centris nitida (recently introduced) function as pollinators for the orchid (Liu pers. comm. 2017). SPECIES’ NEEDS

Habitat and Species Migration Corridors and Translocation To persist throughout its historical range, the species requires suitable habitats as described above, at sites that are large enough to withstand small scale disturbances (stochastic events) and support larger (more resilient) populations. In the USA, habitat loss to development is a minor factor because the known population is on public conservation land. However, the species faces an uncertain future with regard to SLR. Accelerated rates of SLR and corresponding changes in vegetation (due to sea water encroachment) may outpace the species and its host trees’ ability to migrate and therefore reduce the number of suitable host trees. The primary habitat of the species is coastal buttonwood hammock in ENP, where elevations are currently about 3.3 ft (1 m) or less above sea level and is already receding and transitioning to tidal saltmarsh, a transition that is projected to continue and accelerate over the next 50 years (NOAA 2017, pp. 1-5; Sadle pers. comm. 2012; Saha 2011, p.103-105).

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CHAPTER 3: CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current Distribution

Florida The Service has identified one extant population in Florida, which is located in ENP (Figure 3-1; Table 3-1; Table 3-2). It is located in the coastal, southernmost section of the park at Cape Sable, where it occurs in buttonwood hammock and mangrove forest. An attempt at reintroduction near the historical location at Paradise Key (Royal Palm Hammock) was not successful in establishing a population (Sadle pers. comm. 2018).

Outside the USA Cable Sable orchid is widely documented throughout tropical America and the West Indies, however, most records are from decades ago (Figure 3-2; Table 3-1; Table 3-2). We reached out to scientific authorities in each of these countries for updated information, but only received one response (Jamaica).

Jamaica Cape Sable orchid is reportedly widespread across the island and common in the parishes of St. Ann and Manchester. Habitat for the species is protected in National parks and conservations areas (Jamaica CITES Authority pers. comm. 2018).

Cuba In Cuba, the species can be found across all provinces and is considered relatively common (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

How This SSA Defines a Resilient Population of Cape Sable Orchid For the purposes of the SSA, we define a resilient population of the Cape Sable orchid as a site the species is known to occupy and where the habitat characteristics described above are present (i.e., adequate hydrology and moisture regime, presence of host trees). Thus, the Cape Sable orchid currently has one resilient population in Florida, located in ENP.

The only other current information suggests that Jamaica and Cuba likely support at least one resilient population each (Table 3-2).

Population Trends

Florida This species was extirpated circa. 1920 from Paradise Key (Royal Palm Hammock) due to a variety of factors, including habitat destruction, collecting and wildfire (Sadle pers. comm. 2012). Craighead (1963, p. 127) reported that Cape Sable orchid was formerly very abundant in south Florida but indicated that collecting led to the species becoming very uncommon. The National Park Service (NPS) estimated fewer than 500 plants in ENP in 2001. A total of 597

xvi individuals were mapped in 2006 and 2007 (Sadle pers. comm. 2012). In 2015, the population was estimated at 500 to 1,000 plants (Gann 2015, p. 10).

As a result of the fly larvae herbivore damage, reproduction in the ENP population has dropped off sharply for several years and seedlings are rare. The future of this population may be at risk due to its significantly reduced capacity to produce either flowers or seeds (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

Outside the USA

Cuba In Cuba, the species can be found across all provinces and is considered relatively common, especially when compared to the densities found in southern Florida. However, some plants in Cuba show similar signs of inflorescence stalk herbivory by the same or a similar species of fly that affects Cape Sable orchid in Florida (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

Other The Service does not have information on the population trends outside of Florida and Cuba.

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Figure 3-1. The current and historical range of the Cape Sable orchid in Florida.

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Table 3-1. Number of Cape Sable orchid populations by region. Region Populations

USA 1

Mexico 4

West Indies 8 Central 5 America South 8 America Global Total 27

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CHAPTER 4: FACTORS AFFECTING THE VIABILITY OF THE SPECIES

STRESSORS

Known stressors include habitat modification and destruction due to sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, increasing hurricane storm surge, and insect damage. Other factors include, nonnative plant species, poaching, and climate change-associated factors, including prolonged droughts, increased wildfire risk, and increased freeze risk.

Habitat Destruction and Modification The only population of the orchid occurs on public conservation land (ENP), and is generally protected from habitat loss or modification from development. Infrastructure improvements within ENP may cause sporadic, usually small-scale habitat loss and modification.

Hydrologic Modification Hydrology is a key ecosystem component that affects rare plant distributions and their viability. As artificial drainage became more widespread in south Florida over the past century, regional groundwater supplies declined, likely causing drier conditions in habitats that support Cape Sable orchid (Gann 2015, p. 169).

Projects designed to restore the historical hydrology of the Everglades and other natural systems in southern Florida, such as Big Cypress National Preserve (BCNP) (collectively known as the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP)) are beneficial to the Everglades ecosystem, and may produce collateral effects to habitats within the region through increased hydroperiods. Increased and longer-duration hydroperiods may help reduce the effects of saltwater intrusion and produce higher ambient moisture levels. However, it is unclear to what extent this may occur, if at all (Gann 2015, p. 169).

Small Population Size and Isolation Endemic species whose populations exhibit a high degree of isolation are extremely susceptible to extinction from both random and nonrandom catastrophic natural or human-caused events. Species that are restricted to geographically limited areas are inherently more vulnerable to extinction than widespread species because of the increased risk of genetic bottlenecks, random demographic fluctuations, climate change, stochastic events, and localized catastrophes such as hurricanes and disease outbreaks (Mangel and Tier 1994, p. 607; Pimm et al. 1998, p. 757). These problems are further magnified when populations are few and restricted to a very small geographic area, and when the number of individuals is very small. Populations with these characteristics face an increased likelihood of stochastic extinction due to changes in demography, the environment, genetics, or other factors (Gilpin and Soule 1986, pp. 24–34).

Small, isolated populations often exhibit reduced levels of genetic variability, which diminishes the species’ capacity to adapt and respond to environmental changes, thereby decreasing the probability of long-term persistence (e.g., Barrett and Kohn 1991, p. 4; Newman and Pilson 1997, p. 361). Very small plant populations may experience reduced reproductive vigor due to ineffective pollination or inbreeding depression. Isolated individuals have difficulty achieving natural pollen exchange, which limits the production of viable seed. The problems associated

xx with small population size and vulnerability to random demographic fluctuations or natural catastrophes are further magnified by synergistic interactions with other threats, such as those discussed above.

Nonnative Plant Competition Nonnative invasive plants compete with native plants for space, light, water, and nutrients, and modify native plant communities where Cape Sable orchid grows. Old World climbing fern (Lygodium microphyllum), latherleaf (Colubrina asiatica), and Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) are common invasives in habitats that support Cape Sable orchid (Gann et.al. 2002, pp. 288, 687). In ENP, the NPS’ nonnative plant control programs aggressively treat areas to reduce nonnative plant populations.

Insect Damage The reproduction of Cape Sable orchid in ENP is disrupted by a native fly, Melanagromyza miamiensis, which oviposits its eggs on the inflorescence stalk. If ovipositing occurs below the 5th node, it usually results in total loss of the inflorescence, but if the fly larva enters above the 5th node, the inflorescence generally develops side branches, some of which may flower and some of which may also be depredated by fly larvae (Gann 2015, p. 115). The population has incurred an alarmingly high rate of attacks in recent years (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

Studies on the impacts of the fly on population dynamics of Cape Sable Orchid at ENP found that flowering was halted by the fly larvae in 94 percent of the emerging inflorescences with only 3 percent producing any fruit in the 2013, and no fruit being produced in either 2014 or 2015. As a result of this herbivory, the population has experienced reduced reproduction for several years and seedlings are rare (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

So far, this pest is reported only from Florida and Cuba. The Service lacks data to determine the full extent of the threat posed by insect damage to the species range-wide.

Poaching At ENP, poaching was extremely common and contributed to the extirpation of at least three orchid species that formerly occurred there (Gann et al. 2002, p. 288). Historical damage to Cape Sable orchid populations in ENP was primarily linked to poaching and/or over collecting. From 1900 to at least the 1960s, epiphytic orchids were impacted by heavy collecting pressure, including from commercial collectors prior the establishment of the park and later from poachers and from the collection of herbarium specimens. Some poaching pressure surely still exists despite the best efforts of the NPS, but ENP does not believe it occurs at significant levels (Sadle pers.comm. 2012).

The population is well known to orchid enthusiasts, who likely are both pollinating flowers and poaching seed capsules (Gann 2015, p. 12, 101,116). Collecting pressure is potentially present based on observations of social trails that develop during the flowering season and relatively frequent encounters with orchid enthusiasts reported by ENP staff. Social media and rapid information exchange are believed to have resulted in increased visitation at ENP (Gann 2015, p. 118). At least three known instances of poaching have occurred in ENP between 2007 and 2012. Overall, ENP does not consider poaching or collecting to pose a significant threat to the

xxi population of Cape Sable orchid in the park (Sadle pers.comm. 2012). At present, poaching appears to be a minor factor in the viability of the Cape Sable orchid.

Populations in Jamaica are believed decimated by unregulated collecting over the past decades (Liu pers. comm. 2017).

The Service has no information about poaching of this species except where described above.

CLIMATE CHANGE-ASSOCIATED FACTORS

Scenarios, Models, and Uncertainty This climate change information is critical when conducting required USFWS analyses, conservation planning, and decision-making. Released by the White House on May 6, 2014, the National Climate Assessment (NCA 2014, entire) was prepared by a Federal Advisory Committee based on requirements of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. Our analyses under the Act include consideration of observed or likely environmental effects related to ongoing and projected changes in climate. Information for the United States at national and regional levels is summarized in the NCA. Because observed and projected changes in climate at regional and local levels vary from global average conditions, rather than using global scale projections, we use “downscaled” projections. When they are available and have been developed through appropriate scientific procedures because such projections provide higher resolution information that is more relevant to spatial scales used for analyses of a given species and the conditions influencing it. In our analysis, we use expert judgment to weigh the best scientific and commercial data available in our consideration of relevant aspects of climate change and related effects.

Increased Temperature Projected increases in average annual temperature by 2100 vary from +3 to +7° F. State-wide temperature increases will change levels of humidity and rates of evapotranspiration leading to changes in vegetation growth seasons and location. Increased temperatures may also lead to increased wildfires. However, except for SLR, the effect of these changes on the Cape Sable orchid are difficult to quantify and will be likely a minor factor in the viability of the species.

Sea Level Rise The rate of global SLR has been measured at approximately 0.3 cm (0.12 in)/year since 1993 (NOAA 2017, p. 1), and southeast Florida has shown a similar rate. However, the projected rate of global and regional SLR is not expected to continue on this same rate or trend but will accelerate (NOAA 2017, p. 11-13) have projected possible trajectories of SLR in the south Florida landscape under different scenarios and timeframes.

SLR varies locally depending primarily on land subsidence or uplift in response to historic glacial activity across the continent. Storm surges and tides combine with SLR to increase flooding and erosion salt deposition in many areas. SLR impacts coastal erosion, changes in sediment transport and tidal flows, more frequent flooding from higher storm surges, landward migration of barrier shorelines, fragmentation of islands, and saltwater intrusion into aquifers and estuaries.

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SLR is expected to continue for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than those of this century due to past, current, and future emissions of GHGs (from human activities). GHGs result in warmer air which contributes to additional expansion of warmer ocean water and additional melt of ice sheets and glaciers. Vertical land movement is also incorporated in the recent NOAA update for relative sea level (RSL) changes (NOAA 2017, pp. 11-13).

Storm Surge It is important to consider storm/tidal surge (pulse events) in combination with SLR, as storm/tidal surge impacts can be more substantial than SLR alone. The latest tidal information from NOAA Florida gauges indicates that the 5-year recurrence interval (20 percent chance of occurring in any given year) for the medium-high high-tide is 20 inches (1.6 ft.) higher than historically. This equates to the National Weather Service’s definition of moderate flooding at NOAA tidal gauges and currently leads to an issuance of a coastal flood warning of a serious risk to life and property. This 5-year frequency increases 25-fold and becomes the annual frequency by the year 2035 (NOAA 2017, p.37-40). Salts from ocean water deposited during storm surge remain in place for long periods (months), causing damage and mortality of salt-intolerant species, including host trees for Florida clamshell orchid.

Saltwater Intrusion Past studies have focused primarily on ground surface inundation of ocean water to determine effects to vegetation. However, saline groundwater will cause root zone inundation of flora significantly before ground surface inundation (2040-2080 vs. 2060-2100) and will exacerbate and accelerate sea level rise effects. Saltwater intrusion is influenced by rainfall and regional hydrology that affect the size of the freshwater lens. If the freshwater lens shrinks, as it does in droughts, saline groundwater can come into contact with roots of upland, salt-intolerant plants. These events along with storm surges will accelerate change in plant communities that support the Cape Sable orchid in ENP (Saha 2011, p. 100-105).

Sea Level Rise Scenarios The SLR projected by NOAA in 2017 ranges by scenario, from 1.0 to 8.4 ft global SLR by 2100. The basis of the scenarios are future trends in global GHG emissions, where lack of reductions results in the highest SLR. The revised scenarios by NOAA utilized improved climate information regarding shifts in oceanic circulation, changes in the flexing of the Earth’s mantle and crust, vertical land movement due to glacial melting, and groundwater and fossil fuel withdrawals. Latest findings indicate that Florida is subsiding at a rate of -0.04 in/year. Historical and projected SLR is compiled in Table 4-1 below (NOAA 2017, pp. 8-13).

Table 4-1: Historical and projected sea level rise (SLR) through 2100 (NOAA 2017, p. 8-13). SLR since 1880 Global +8 to 9 inches SLR by 2100 Global +12 to +98 inches (+1 to 8.2 feet) SLR by 2100 Florida +12 to 101 inches (+1 to 8.4 feet)

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According to statistical analyses from the NOAA (2017, p. 22) report, the probability of exceeding the Low (1 ft. SLR by 2100) is 100 percent. The probability of exceeding the Intermediate-Low (1.6 ft. SLR by 2100) is 96 percent. Thus, these two scenarios should be eliminated from the current range of SLR scenarios. Although significant discussion is aimed at global emissions reduction, emissions continue to escalate and presently there is no clear socioeconomic driver to depart from a carbon-based energy infrastructure. As long as this fact remains, the ‘High’ or ‘Business as Usual’ projection of 6.6 feet is currently the most probable future scenario. New evidence from NOAA 2017 expects the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, if sustained, will significantly increase the probability of the ‘Intermediate-High’, ‘High’, and ‘Extreme’ scenarios. The ice sheets hold huge amounts of ice (21 ft. of sea level equivalent for Greenland and 90 ft. for Antarctica. Even losing a small fraction (<2 percent) would raise sea level by 3 ft (NOAA, pp.10-16).

Ecological Implications for Sea Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion Sea level rise will increasingly lead to inundation of coastal wetlands in the region exacerbated by saltwater intrusion through inland waterways and aquifers. Elevations at ENP are mostly less than 3.3 ft (1 m) above sea level, making the species’ entire range highly susceptible to habitat modification from increased storm surges and SLR (Saha et al. 2011, p. 82).

SLR impacts to plant communities are expected to occur decades before actual surface flooding from ocean water. The change in the extent of habitats occupied by the Cape Sable orchid will be brought about by a decline in freshwater recharge of the freshwater lens in conjunction with an increase in salinity, which will push species to the edge of their drought (freshwater shortage and physiological) tolerance.

Plant communities along South Florida’s low-lying coasts are organized along a mild gradient in elevation, transitioning from mangroves at sea level to salinity-intolerant interior habitats, within an elevation change of 6.6 ft (2 m) above sea level. As a result, a rise of 3.3 ft (1 m) in sea level is expected to render coastal systems that support Cape Sable orchid susceptible to increased erosion and cause these areas to transition from upland forest habitats to saline wetland habitats. Prior to the onset of sustained inundation, there will be irreversible changes in vegetation composition within these habitats. Shifts in habitat toward hydric and saline ecosystems will occur decades in advance of full inundation, rendering the habitat unsuitable for salt intolerant species including Cape Sable orchid and its host trees (Saha et al. 2011, p. 82). As interior habitats become more saline there will be a reduction in freshwater inflows, and accelerating losses in salinity-intolerant coastal plant communities (Saha et al. 2011, p. 105). SLR impacts are expected to occur before actual surface flooding from ocean water. In the decades prior to the fully anticipated SLR, reduction of the water table, along with increased soil salinity from partial inundation and storm surge will result in vegetation shifts within ENP. Saltwater intrusion and inundation will result in the loss of upland tree species in favor of salt-tolerant herbaceous species. As a result, Cape Sable orchid and its host trees will gradually decline as these habitats eventually disappear.

In our projections of future conditions for the Cape Sable orchid, we analyze outcomes of SLR for each population using modelling scenarios projecting 3.3 ft (Scenario A - GHG reductions by 2080), 4.9 ft (Scenario B - GHG reductions by 2060), and 6.6 ft (Scenario C - no GHG

xxiv reductions, ‘business as usual’) of SLR in south Florida. We incorporate the effects of SLR into all scenarios in Chapter 5.

STOCHASTIC EVENTS

Extreme events are expected to increase in strength and frequency with accelerated climate change. Hurricanes winds and freezes can cause direct mortality of orchids and their host trees. Wildfires can severely damage hammocks causing direct mortality of orchids and host trees, and degrading habitat (Gann 2015, p. 101). Storm surges can cause extreme erosion and soil salinization, accelerating plant community transitions toward salt marsh or mangroves. Little can be done to reduce the frequency or severity of these events. Increasing the size and number of populations may reduce the species vulnerability to extirpation by these natural events.

Hurricanes and Storm Surge Florida is considered the most vulnerable state in the United States to hurricanes and tropical storms (Florida Climate Center, http://coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center). Based on data gathered from 1856 to 2008, Klotzbach and Gray (2009, p. 28) calculated the climatological probabilities for each State being impacted by a hurricane or major hurricane in all years over the 152-year timespan. Of the coastal States analyzed, Florida had the highest climatological probabilities, with a 51 percent probability of a hurricane (Category 1 or 2) and a 21 percent probability of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in any given year. From 1856 to 2015, Florida experienced 109 hurricanes and 36 major hurricanes. Given the single population and restricted range of Cape Sable orchid in locations prone to storm influences (i.e., south Florida), the Florida population is at substantial risk from hurricanes and storm surges.

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high-quality satellite data are available. These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms. The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through. Numerous factors have been shown to influence these local sea surface temperatures, including natural variability of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), human- induced emissions of heat-trapping gases, and particulate pollution.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are projected to be fewer in number but stronger in force, with more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. These increases are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region where Atlantic hurricanes form and move through. Heavier rainfall rates and higher wind speeds are expected with a 20 percent increase in both near the center of the storms, which will increase storm surge heights, and the extent and duration of inundation during these events.

Hurricanes cause mortality by defoliation, mechanical injury, or uprooting of host trees and individuals, leading to irreversible desiccation of individuals. All individuals in affected areas would be subject to impacts, with smaller plants and seedlings being most vulnerable. Storm surge physically washes away plants and substrate and leads to salinization of soils. These

xxv pulses of salinization will exacerbate salt water intrusion to accelerate habitat modification and loss.

Drought Dry consecutive days are expected to increase 10 to 20 percent for most of Florida with up to 30 percent for South Florida over the next century. Drought events lower water levels in sloughs and swamps and can create moisture stress in orchids, causing injury or mortality. Drought can also increase saltwater intrusion. We lack the data to model drought effects on the species and its habitat, but know that it is a factor in the overall viability of the Cape Sable orchid and its habitat.

Wildfires Wildfire can devastate rockland hammocks under dry hot conditions, consuming all plant life in their path. In some areas, prolonged periods of record high temperatures associated with droughts contribute to dry conditions that are driving wildfires. Wildfires can cause drastic changes in species composition, changes in tree density, increased flooding and erosion risks. The effects of climate change weaken the natural protections ecosystems have against these extreme events, making them more vulnerable. While the species historically occurred in rockland hammocks, it is currently restricted to coastal buttonwood forests. Thus, we consider wildfires to be a minor factor in the overall viability of the Cape Sable orchid.

Freeze Events Occasional freezing temperatures that occur in south Florida pose a risk to individual plants either through damage or mortality. Under normal circumstances, occasional freezing temperatures would not result in a significant impact to populations of these plants; however, the small size of the population means the loss from freezing events can reduce the viability of the population by causing a significant demographic shift. However, freezes are becoming less frequent in south Florida and this trend is expected to continue. Thus, we consider freezes to be a minor factor in the overall viability of the Cape Sable orchid.

Ecological Implications for Stochastic Events Hurricanes, storm surge, drought, wildfire, and freezing are natural events that can have adverse impacts on Cape Sable orchid and may change in frequency or duration with a changing climate (McLaughlin et al. 2002, p. 6074; Golladay et al. 2004, p. 504; Cook et al. 2004, p. 1015). Our analysis focuses on SLR, saltwater intrusion, and storm surge the most critical threats to the Cape Sable orchid. Hurricanes can modify habitat and cause direct mortality (e.g., mechanical damage from wind) and have the potential to destroy entire populations. Storm surges also have the potential to destroy entire populations, physically washing them away or leaving soil too saline for their host trees to persist.

ONGOING CONSERVATION ACTIONS

Convention on Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) The entire orchid family, including all orchids native to the United States and its territories, is listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Most of the family is listed in Appendix II, including the Cape Sable orchid, so

xxvi that exports require a CITES permit. Orchids can be grown in nurseries using methods that are not harmful to wild populations, helping to satisfy the international demand for these beautiful plants and reducing collection pressure on wild populations.

Jamaica All orchid species in Jamaica fall under the Orchid Conservation Policy Jamaica, which aims to conserve the species and their habitats, encourage sustainable use and promote training, research, and public education.

State of Florida Listing The Cape Sable is listed on the Regulated Plant Index (Index) as endangered under chapter 5B- 40, Florida Administrative Code. Florida Statutes 581.185 sections (3)(a) and (3)(b) prohibit any person from willfully destroying or harvesting any species listed as endangered or threatened on the Index, or growing such a plant on the private land of another, or on any public land, without first obtaining the written permission of the landowner and a permit from the Florida Department of Plant Industry. The statute further provides that any person willfully destroying or harvesting; transporting, carrying, or conveying on any public road or highway; or selling or offering for sale any plant listed in the Index as endangered must have a permit from the State at all times when engaged in any such activities. The statute provides little or no habitat protection beyond the State’s development of a regional impact process, which discloses impacts from projects, but provides no regulatory protection for State-listed plants on private lands. Florida Statutes 581.185 section (8) waives State regulation for certain classes of activities for all species on the Index, including the clearing or removal of regulated plants for agricultural, forestry, mining, construction (residential, commercial, or infrastructure), and fire-control activities by a private landowner or his or her agent. As such, this statute provides no substantive protection of habitat or protection of potentially suitable habitat at this time.

Everglades National Park Populations of Cape Sable orchid within ENP are protected by NPS regulations at 36 CFR 2.1, which prohibit visitors from harming or removing plants, listed or otherwise, from ENP. However, the regulations do not address actions taken by NPS that cause habitat loss or modification. The NPS General Management Plan (GMP) for ENP (NPS 2015, entire) aims to protect, restore, and maintain natural and cultural resources at the ecosystem level. Although GMPs are not regulatory, and their implementation is not mandatory, the Plan includes conservation measures for Cape Sable orchid.

Nonnative Plant Control ENP implements periodic control efforts through their exotic plant management program to minimize the impacts of nonnative plants throughout the park (Sadle pers. comm. 2012).

Propagation and Reintroduction Marie Selby Botanical Gardens, The Institute for Regional Conservation (IRC), and ENP collaborated on the production of and planting of nearly 200 Cape Sable orchids at Royal Palm Hammock in 2011 and 2012 In 2013 and 2014, IRC and ENP established a long-term monitoring baseline with a subset of the few remaining plants (Gann 2015, p. 117-118). The

xxvii population has steadily declined since installation and can no longer be considered a resilient population.

Commercial Availability Many of the orchid species native to Florida are now common in cultivation, including Cape Sable orchid, and there are many commercial sources to supply hobby growers. This helps reduce the need to obtain specimens from the wild.

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CHAPTER 5: SPECIES’ FUTURE CONDITION

We have insufficient data on which to develop scenarios for the species outside Florida. The following analysis pertains only to the Florida population.

In the following analysis, we analyzed stressor variables including SLR, increased hurricanes and storm surge, and saltwater intrusion as described above into three scenarios (Table 5-1). To project stressors we used the following approaches: 1) we used projections from the NOAA Special Report on Sea Level Rise (NOAA 2017, p. 20-23), adopting three scenarios (Table 5-2) projecting SLR increase in 10 year increments out to 2100, and 2) we used projected trends for Atlantic hurricanes through 2100 for the Florida peninsula to include projected storm surge increases in each scenario. Available data do not include a range of projections for storm surge and saltwater intrusion. As such, these are not variables in the analysis. However, the mean sea level at the time of these events will exacerbate storm surge and saltwater intrusion effects.

Table 5-1. Scenarios used to analyze the future viability of the Cape Sable orchid in Florida. Increased Rate of Sea Level Rise Increased Hurricanes / Storm Saltwater Scenario (NOAA 2017) Surge Intrusion Increased +3.3 ft (+1 m) at 2100 Increased intensity and duration frequency and A ‘Intermediate’ projection (precipitation and wind speeds duration of GHG reductions by 2060 +20 percent) saltwater intrusion events Increased +4.9 ft (+1.5 m) at 2100 Increased intensity and duration frequency and B ‘Intermediate-High’ projection (precipitation and wind speeds duration of GHG reductions by 2080 +20 percent) saltwater intrusion events Increased +6.6 ft (+2.0 m) at 2100 Increased intensity and duration frequency and ‘High’ projection C (precipitation and wind speeds duration of Business as Usual - No GHG +20 percent) saltwater reductions intrusion events

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Table 5-2. Summary of projected SLR for the 3 scenarios in feet (ft) and meters (m) by decade to 2100. Scenario at 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2100 (A) GHG reductions at 2060 + 3.3 ft 0.33 0.52 0.82 1.12 1.48 1.87 2.33 2.79 3.28 (+ 1.0 m) (0.10) (0.16) (0.25) (0.34) (0.45) (0.57) (0.71) (0.85) (1.00) (B) GHG reductions at 2080

+ 4.9 ft 0.33 0.62 0.98 1.44 1.97 2.59 3.28 3.94 4.92 (+ 1.5 m) (0.10) (0.19) (0.30) (0.44) (0.60) (0.79) (1.00) (1.20) (1.50) (C) Business as usual – no GHG reductions

+ 6.6 ft 0.36 0.69 1.18 1.77 2.53 3.28 4.26 5.58 6.56 (+ 2.0 m) (0.11) (0.21) (0.36) (0.54) (0.77) (1.00) (1.30) (1.70) (2.00)

Because loss and modification of habitat to SLR is the primary stressor, we use the area (in acres) of ENP as a surrogate for population resiliency in our analysis. We also know that the population occurs in the lower elevation areas (~3.3 ft (1m) along the coast at Cape Sable which are highly vulnerable to SLR. The NOAA (2017, p. 23) SLR projections we use in the analysis are summarized for 2020 through 2100 in Table 5-2. Figure 5-1 provides SLR curves for the population under all three scenarios. The summary of change in the population resiliency until 2100 is expressed as percent of habitat lost to SLR (Table 5-3).

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Business as usual GHG reductions by 2060 GHG reductions by 2080

Figure 5-1. Loss of habitat to SLR under Scenarios A, B, and C at ENP, which supports a population of Cape Sable orchid.

Table 5-3. Summary of percentages of habitat loss at sites that support Cape Sable orchid from SLR by depth (irrespective of time) and by percentage of site using Scenarios A, B, and C at 2100. SLR depth (ft)(m) by percent habitat Habitat loss by SLR depth loss (percent) (Scenario) Population 3.3 ft 4.9 ft 6.6 ft 25% 50% 75% 90% (1 m) (1.5 m) (2 m) (A) (B) (C)

0.49 0.95 1.51 2.07 Everglades National Park 95% 96% 99% (0.15) (0.29) (0.46) (0.63)

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Figure 5-2. Range of the Cape Sable orchid with 3 feet of sea level rise (Scenario A).

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SCENARIO RESULTS

All Scenarios

Resiliency Hurricanes and storm surges will be a greater source of mortality and habitat modification, reducing population resiliency. SLR will increase the inland penetration and residence time of sea water during storm surge events, accelerating habitat modification. The buttonwood hammock habitat is amongst the most vulnerable habitats to SLR and saltwater intrusion. ENP will face increased saltwater intrusion and inundation over the coming decades, causing loss of habitat, host trees, and individuals as it and other freshwater swamps and sloughs retreat inland due to increasing salinity, resulting in reductions of the Cape Sable orchid population in Florida, these effects are certain to occur, the only uncertainty is the rate at which they will occur.

Scenario A (GHG reductions by 2060)

Redundancy Scenario A results in a loss of 95 percent of the habitat that currently supports Cape Sable orchid within the US, likely causing extirpation of the Florida population (Table 5-3).

Scenario B (GHG reductions by 2080)

Redundancy Scenario B results in a loss of 96 percent of the habitat that currently supports Cape Sable orchid within the US, very likely causing extirpation of the Florida population (Table 5-3).

Scenario C (No GHG reductions by 2100 / business as usual)

Redundancy Scenario C results in a loss of 99 percent of the habitat that currently supports Cape Sable orchid within the US, almost certainly causing extirpation of the Florida population (Table 5-3).

Table 5-4. Summary of extant populations at 2100 under Scenario A, B, and C (A = GHG reductions by 2060, B = GHG reductions by 2080, C = No GHG reductions by 2100 (‘business as usual’). Total Number of Populations - Florida Species Non-U.S A B C Historical Current (3.3 ft) (4.9 ft) (6.6 ft) Cape Sable orchid 2 1 0 0 0 25

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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

In Florida, the effects of SLR outstrip all other stressors in all scenarios and has the greatest influence on population resiliency. Cape Sable orchid will lose its only population in Florida as early as 2070 (Figure 5-1) to inundation. Sea level rise will increase the inland penetration and residence time of sea water during storm surge events, accelerating habitat modification. Coastal sites will face increased saltwater intrusion, causing loss of habitat and orchid host trees, as freshwater swamps, buttonwood hammocks, and other habitats retreat inland or are lost due to increasing salinity. Hurricanes and storm surges will be a greater source of mortality and habitat modification, reducing population resiliency. Acting together, these three factors will very likely cause irreversible habitat decline that precedes inundation by 10 to 20 years. Given this, the Service concludes that the single population of Cape Sable orchid in Florida may begin experiencing significant losses as early as 2050.

Data are insufficient to make conclusions about the status of Cape Sable orchid outside Florida. We do not have any estimates or counts of population sizes, and many of the observation are decades old. Cuba and Jamaica are the exception, where the species is known to be rather widespread and abundant. However, since most populations occur well above sea level, they are not vulnerable to SLR impacts like the Florida population. They may be vulnerable to other stressors known from Florida, such as the insect that damages the plants flowering stalks and has also been observed in Cuba but the extent is which these stressors may affect the species countries outside the U.S. is unknown.

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Appendix A- Summary of known populations of Cape Sable orchid worldwide.

Region Country Location Date Source Everglades North America USA Florida National Park - 2017 1 Coastal North America Mexico Chiapas Palenque 1983 2 North America Mexico Chiapas Tila 1981 2 North America Mexico Tabasco Teapa 1983 2 North America Mexico Veracruz - 1984 2 West Indies Jamaica - - 2018 3 St. Elizabeth West Indies Jamaica YS Falls 2013 4 Parish West Indies Jamaica St. Ann Parish - 1999 4 West Indies Jamaica Manchester Parish Mandeville 1983 4 West Indies Jamaica Manchester Parish Auchtembeddie 1952 4 Saint Vincent West Indies and the - - no date 4 Grenadines Trinidad and West Indies - - no date 4 Tobago West Indies Cuba - - 2017 6 Central America Belize Stann Creek - 1990 2 Central America Guatemala - - no date 2 Central America Honduras Olancho Juticalpa 1952 2 Central America Honduras Yoro Victoria 1934 2 Central America Nicaragua - - no date 2 South America Colombia - - no date 5 South America Ecuador - - no date 5 South America Peru northern Peru - no date 5 South America Venezuela - - no date 5 French South America - - no date 5 Guiana South America Surinam - - no date 5 South America Guyana - - no date 5 South America Brazil northern Brazil - no date 5 1 Wunderlin et.al. 2017, entire 2 Tropicos 2017, entire 3 Jamaica CITES Authority pers. comm. 2018 4 GBIF 2018, entire 5 Ackerman and Chase 2003, p. 649 6 Liu pers. comm. 2017

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Appendix B- Cape Sable orchid occurrence map across the range of the species.

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