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Species Status Assessment for the Cape Sable Orchid (Trichocentrum Undulatum)

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Species Status Assessment for the Cape Sable Orchid (Trichocentrum Undulatum) Species Status Assessment for the Cape Sable Orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) Version 1.2 Photo by Keith Bradley Prepared by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service South Florida Ecological Services Office 1339 20th Street, Vero Beach, FL 32960 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This document was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Cape Sable orchid Species Status Assessment Team. We would also like to recognize and thank the following individuals who provided substantive information and/or insights for our SSA. Valuable input into the analysis and reviews of a draft of this document were provided by Jimi Sadle, and Hong Liu. We appreciate their input and comments, which resulted in a more robust status assessment and final report. Suggested reference: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2020. Species status assessment report for Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum). Version 1.2. August 2020. Atlanta, GA. ii VERSION UPDATES Changes from Version 1.0 to Version 1.2 are the following: • We added more detailed maps of worldwide occurrence records for Cape Sable orchid. • In the Summary and Conclusions, we added text to emphasize the synergistic relationship between SLR, saltwater intrusion, and storm surge events. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Species Status Assessment presents a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial data for Cape Sable orchid. Cape Sable orchid (Trichocentrum undulatum) is widely distributed in Mexico, Central and South America, and the West Indies (Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Lesser Antilles). In Florida, Cape Sable orchid is rare, occurring at one site, Everglades National Park (ENP), in Monroe County (Gann 2014, p.1). The current population size at ENP is estimated at 500 to 1,000 plants (Gann 2015, p.10). The Florida population is considered one representative unit. Florida is the most northerly occurrence of the species worldwide. Cape Sable orchid is listed as endangered by the State of Florida. The species is listed as ‘critically imperiled’ in Florida by the Florida Natural Areas Inventory ([FNAI] 2018, p.9). The ‘global rank’ of the species is classified as ‘apparently secure’, defined as ‘uncommon but not rare’, with some causes for concern due to declines or other factors by NatureServe (NatureServe 2017, p.1). A recent publication included it as a ‘Species of Management Concern’ in ENP (Gann 2105, p.10). The stressors on the species and its habitats are habitat loss and modification due to sea level rise (SLR), saltwater intrusion, and increasing storm surge impacts. Loss of habitat to development, poaching, and predation by insects are factors for the species but do not rise to the level of stressor for the purposes of this SSA. We analyzed 3 scenarios incorporating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ‘Intermediate’ (scenario A-decreasing greenhouse gases (GHG) in 2060), ‘Intermediate-High’ (scenario B-(decreasing GHG in 2080), and ‘High’ (scenario C (Business as Usual) projected rates of SLR National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration ([NOAA] 2017, pp. 21-28), and projected increase in hurricane intensity to forecast the future viability of the species for 10 generations or approximately 80 years (to 2100). We also consider increased storm surge and saltwater intrusion to project the timing of vegetation changes that precede inundation. In all of the scenarios, the main driver of species viability is habitat loss and modification due to sea level rise, storm surge, and saltwater intrusion. Scenario A projects SLR of 3.3 feet (ft) (1 meter (m)) and forecasts inundation of the coastal habitat occupied by the sole population at ENP by 2100. We anticipate significant effects to the species as early as 2050, and extirpation of the species in Florida as early as 2070, under Scenario C (the most likely scenario). However, the species is likely to persist through SLR outside of Florida because it occurs at higher elevations of 30 to 3,100 ft (10 to 950 m) (Tropicos 2017, p.1) and more inland locations outside the United States, although we did not have information to analyze and determine the effect of other possible stressors. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................................v SUMMARY OF CHANGES FROM VERSION 1.0 TO VERSION 1.1 ......................................... vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 2: SPECIES RESOURCE NEEDS AND POPULATIONS .........................................2 SPECIES DESCRIPTION ..........................................................................................................2 TAXONOMY ..........................................................................................................................2 Life History .................................................................................................................................... 2 HABITAT ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 Historical Range and Distribution ............................................................................................... 5 INDIVIDUAL NEEDS .............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Microsites for Growth and Reproduction .................................................................................. 5 POPULATION NEEDS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Delineating Populations .............................................................................................................. 5 Undisturbed Natural Areas ........................................................................................................... 5 Hydrology ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Pollinators ....................................................................................................................................... 5 SPECIES’ NEEDS .................................................................................................................................. 6 Habitat and Species Migration Corridors and Translocation .................................................. 6 CHAPTER 3: CURRENT CONDITIONS ............................................................................................. 6 Current Distribution ...................................................................................................................... 6 How This SSA Defines a Resilient Population ......................................................................... 6 Population Trends ......................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 4: FACTORS AFFECTING THE VIABILITY OF THE SPECIES ............................ 13 STRESSORS ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Habitat Destruction and Modification ...................................................................................... 13 Habitat Fragmentation ................................................................................................................ 13 Hydrologic Modification ............................................................................................................ 13 Small Population Size and Isolation ......................................................................................... 13 Nonnative Plant Competition .................................................................................................... 13 Poaching ....................................................................................................................................... 14 CLIMATE CHANGE-ASSOCIATED FACTORS ....................................................................14 Scenarios, Models, and Uncertainty .......................................................................................... 14 Increased Temperature ............................................................................................................... 14 Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................................. 14 Storm Surge.................................................................................................................................. 14 Saltwater Intrusion ......................................................................................................................... 15 v Sea Level Rise Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 15 Ecological Implications for Sea Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion .................................. 16 STOCHASTIC EVENTS ..................................................................................................................... 16 Hurricanes and Storm Surge .....................................................................................................
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