Senate Outcome Will Decide Next President’s Ability to Implement Agenda: 5 Races That Will Determine Which Party Holds the Majority

By Doug Leigh, Director, Legislative Affairs, NACD

Control of the U.S. Senate is never inconsequential. However, control of the Senate following the 2020 election cycle will be considerably more consequential than previous cycles. If former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is elected president on November 3, 2020, his ability to deliver on the progressive Democratic agenda will depend on Democrats taking control of the Senate and the margin by which they do so. If President Trump is re-elected to a second term, his administration’s ability to operate as normal would improve if Republicans maintain control of the Senate and can approve his nominees. Another possible outcome is that we find our country with a divided government come 2021 — an outcome many may agree allows our federal government to work better (less badly) when at least one chamber of Congress is controlled by a party other than the party of the president.

As the 116th Congress currently stands, the Republican Party holds a 53-seat majority in the Senate. For the Democratic Party to reclaim control of the Senate, Democrats will need to net either three or four seats this November: three if the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, wins the White House, and four if President Trump returns for a second term. (The sitting vice president breaks a 50-50 tie.)

Will Democrats pull off a comeback that not long ago was viewed as improbable? Or, will the GOP keep power? Recently, the majority of polling has shown a trend in the Democrats’ direction that puts ordinarily red states in play, such as Georgia, South Carolina, and even Texas. However, with Republicans near-certain to gain back one Democratic seat in – Sen. Doug Jones’ seat that was flipped blue in a 2017 special election after he faced off against an especially unfavorable Republican opponent – the fight for the Senate is going to come down to a handful of key races that are still too close to call.

Here is a breakdown of the five seats that could change hands on Election Day and likely decide the fate of the Senate next Congress — ordered from most to least likely to flip, with Republican-held seats noted in red and Democratic-held seats in blue.

1. Incumbent Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) The race for Alabama’s junior Senate seat is one of the few races where a Republican looks likely to pick up a seat held by Democrats. In a cycle with few certainties, Jones has been considered a long shot ever since the GOP managed to keep former state Judge from securing his party’s nomination. It was Moore, after all, who lost the seat in 2017 in a contest to replace former Sen. , allowing Jones to become the first Democrat in 20 years elected to the Senate from Alabama. Jones is up against former Auburn University football coach , who emerged from the GOP primary this year ahead of Moore and then defeated Sessions himself in a runoff — with Trump’s backing. The most recent poll conducted by Auburn University at Montgomery has Tuberville with a comfortable 12-point lead over incumbent Doug Jones. However, in a state that President Trump carried with 60% of the vote in 2016, and where almost two-thirds of voters cast straight party-line ballots, both Democrats and Republicans say the race will be close with Sen. Jones running a strong campaign.

2. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) Cal Cunningham, a lawyer and retired military officer, has led Thom Tillis all summer, and the Republican incumbent — a savvy politician who previously served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives — looked like he was in deep trouble, trailing by an average of six points. But then, in early October, Cunningham admitted he had engaged in an extramarital affair over the summer. That revelation shook up the race and dented Cunningham’s image as a wholesome Iraq veteran and married father of two. One Democratic consultant, Patrick Dillon, called Cunningham’s conduct “astonishingly dumb,” and Tillis has run an ad that highlights the affair and ends with a shot of him and his wife walking hand in hand. Yet three polls released shortly after the scandal broke all show Cunningham retaining his lead for now: 48 percent to 44 percent in a new survey from Monmouth University; 49 percent to 39 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV; and 47 percent to 41 percent in a poll from Morning Consult. If Tillis rides the scandal to a win, Cunningham’s personal failings could end up having enormous political consequences. But the North Carolina contest may ultimately prove that partisanship outweighs morality this day in age.

3. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) Montana really should not be this competitive. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in Big Sky Country, and incumbent Sen. Steve Daines has solid approval ratings. But the race immediately became a toss-up when national Democrats finally persuaded a reluctant Steve Bullock, the state’s popular current Democratic governor, to enter the race earlier this year after months of insisting he would not challenge Daines. At the time, Bullock was fresh off a failed presidential bid that saw his middle-of-the-road, middle-of-the-country politics falling flat in a crowded Democratic primary. Yet Bullock’s brand is a good fit for populist, independent-minded Montana, and voters there have largely approved of his handling of the pandemic and his health care-centric message. In a sign of how crucial the contest is, spending so far has topped $75 million — a record in Montana. General goodwill may not be enough to put Bullock over the top in a crimson state during a presidential election year, and Daines’ strategy of following Trump’s playbook and painting his moderate opponent as a puppet of out-of-state donors and “liberal mobs” hell-bent on defunding the police could carry the day. But if Biden rides a national wave to the White House, Montana could tip the Senate in the Democrats’ favor. Of all this year’s red state races, this may be the ripest for an upset. Polling averages put this race within the margin of error with Sen. Daines holding onto a 48.3 percent to 45 percent advantage.

4. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) This is the hottest race out there with only a few weeks remaining before November 3. A seat that was initially seen as safe for Republicans officially became a toss-up last week, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Sen. Graham has represented the Palmetto State since 2003, and he cruised to re- election in 2014. However, for the first time in a while, he has drawn a formidable opponent. Jaime Harrison, a South Carolina native and African American, attended Yale and Georgetown Law before serving as chairman of the state’s Democratic Party. In the third quarter of 2020, Harrison has proved to be a tremendous fundraiser, bringing in a record-breaking $57 million during that time. Harrison is using that money to blanket the state with ads attacking Graham on a bill he wrote that would have repealed the (Obamacare) while also hitting him on the Supreme Court issue. Graham was one of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s most vocal supporters and, in the senator’s role as chairman of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, he is now leading the charge for Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s court confirmation after promising in 2018 he wouldn’t confirm any nominee, conservative or liberal, in an election year. Graham took to last month to plead for donations, and the Senate Leadership Fund announced it was spending $10 million on radio and TV ads in the state in an attempt to get Graham over the finish line. The most recent polling data has this race neck-and-neck with Sen. Graham narrowly holding onto a 46.2 percent to 45.3 percent lead.

5. Sen. (D-MI) John James is seen as the Republican challenger also with a chance to flip a Senate seat currently held by a Democrat. This is due almost entirely to James’ skills as a candidate, as Trump’s fortunes are fading in Michigan. In 2018, James – an African American, West Point grad, and former Army helicopter pilot who now helms his family’s warehousing and logistics business in Detroit – ran against Michigan’s other Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow, and lost by fewer (six points) than other Republicans on the ballot. Recent polls show him within five points of incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, and the latest, from the respected New York Times/Siena College partnership, puts James within one point — a virtual tie. For Michiganders, Sen. Peters is an unexciting incumbent and, so far, the race has been marked by negativity on both sides. To James’ advantage, he has outraised Peters by $3 million since the beginning of last year, and his ability to avoid getting pinned down on hot-button issues that could alienate moderates while also signaling loyalty to Trump — whose agenda James said in 2017 he supported “2,000 percent” — is keeping this buzzy Republican in the hunt.