2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

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Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-46-6 (print) 978-1-925573-47-3 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2018 Professor Will Steffen This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material Climate Councillor contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Dr. Martin Rice 2017: Another record-breaking year for heat and extreme weather Authors: Professor Will Steffen, Dr. Martin Rice and Dr. David Alexander. Head of Research, Climate Council

— Image credit: Cover photo “Big Sun on sunset. Nature composition.” (ID: 131341742) copyright by djgis. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.

Dr. David Alexander Researcher facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected]

twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au CLIMATE COUNCIL i

Contents

Key Findings...... ii

1. Introduction...... 1

2. Global Heat Records in 2017...... 4

3. Australian Heat Records Broken in 2017...... 7

4. Consequences of 2017 Record Heat: Impacts of Extreme Weather Globally...... 10

5. Impacts of Extreme Weather in Australia in 2017 ...... 12

5.1 Heat-related Extreme Weather 13 5.1.1 Heatwaves 13 5.1.2 Bushfires 15 5.2 Impacts on Ecosystems 16 5.3 Tropical Cyclones 17

6. The Window of Opportunity to Tackle Climate Change is Closing...... 18

References...... 20

Image Credits...... 22 ii 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

Key Findings 1 2 The four hottest years on record are 2016, 2015, Temperature records toppled across Australia 2017 and 2014, continuing the strong, long- through 2017. term upswing in global temperatures. ›› 2017 was Australia’s third warmest year on record. ›› The 2013-2017 period has been the hottest five- year period ever recorded. ›› Seven of the ten hottest years on record in Australia have happened since 2005. Five of the ›› 2017 was the third hottest year ever recorded, and seven have occurred the past five years. was the hottest year where the temperature was not boosted by an El Niño event. ›› 2017 broke records for hot, dry conditions with more than 260 heat and low rainfall records broken ›› The world’s 10 hottest years on record have all throughout winter. occurred since 1998 and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century. ›› Many remarkable records were set across Australia in 2017. In the summer, Moree had 54 consecutive days of 35°C or above. In autumn, Launceston experienced its warmest night on record on 16 March. Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory had their highest winter average maximum temperatures on record. Cape Jaffa in South Australia experienced its highest spring mean daily temperature on record.

›› Oceans around Australia also experienced record breaking heatwaves, with high sea surface temperatures contributing to mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in early 2017. KEY FINDINGS iii

3 The increasing global heat, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, exacerbated extreme weather events around the globe and in Australia in 2017.

›› Floods: Massive flooding in South Asia took over a thousand lives.

›› Fires: Forests across southern Europe and in California were devastated by wildfires. NSW experienced an early start to the bushfire season.

›› Cyclones: A series of destructive tropical cyclones swept across the Caribbean and southern US with some of the most intense rainfall and winds ever recorded. Tropical Cyclone Debbie struck Queensland and NSW causing power losses to homes and the evacuation of thousands as storms brought heavy rainfall and mass flooding. At least five Australians died, and the damage bill is an estimated $2 billion.

›› Heat: During a February 2017 heatwave nearly 100 bushfires in New South Wales destroyed at least 30 homes. This same severe heatwave caused problems for the South Australian and New South Wales energy systems.

climatecouncil.org.au 1 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

1. Introduction

More record-breaking heat was In fact, 2013-2017 was the hottest five-year experienced around the world in period on record (NOAA 2018a; Figure 1). 2017, with the year joining 2014, 2015 This recent record heat is part of a long-term and 2016 as the four hottest years global warming trend that began most clearly ever recorded in the 138-year global in the mid-20th century and has continued temperature archive. unabated since then. The world’s 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998 and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century.

Figure 1: Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, from 1880 to present, using 1951-1980 as a baseline period. The average temperature of both hot and cold years has risen rapidly since the 1970s.

GLOBAL LAND−OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX

1.0

‘Hot’ years warming .8 Annual Mean 5−year Running Mean .6

.4

.2

0. Temperature Anomaly (°C)

−.2 ‘Cold’ years warming

−.4

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Source: Adapted from NASA 2018. CHAPTER 01 2 INTRODUCTION

The last five-year period has been the hottest such period ever recorded.

Australia experienced its third hottest year Globally, intense monsoonal rains and on record in 2017. The ‘Angry Summer’ of consequent flooding in South Asia led to 2016-17 broke more than 205 climate records more than 1,200 deaths and left 40 million across the nation, and included several people displaced or affected. Within one intense heatwaves in January and February. month, a series of powerful, damaging In winter, over 260 records were broken once hurricanes—Harvey, Irma and Maria – tore again across the country, with the winter through the Caribbean and southern United of 2017 the hottest on record for maximum States, leading to some of the most intense temperatures. Low rainfall records were also rainfall and winds ever recorded. Heavy broken throughout the season, resulting, rains in Peru led to landslides leaving 75 along with the high temperatures, in an early people dead and making tens of thousands start to the bushfire season across much of homeless. Meanwhile, wildfires brought New South Wales. Oceans around Australia on by extreme heat and drought caused recorded temperatures well above average devastation across the Mediterranean, with through the year. Portugal worst hit. California was also hit by wildfires in October and December, leaving a The ongoing, long-term trend of record- trail of devastation across the state (Figure 2). breaking heat is increasing the frequency and destructiveness of many extreme The record-breaking heat and its associated weather events, with devastating impacts in impacts are amongst the most prominent Australia and elsewhere around the world. fingerprints of climate change and are Early in 2017, the Great Barrier Reef suffered primarily caused by the human emission its second consecutive mass bleaching of carbon dioxide from the burning of event as a result of prolonged high sea coal, oil and gas. Carbon dioxide and other surface temperatures, while later in the year, greenhouse gases trap additional heat at the Queensland and northern New South Wales Earth’s surface and in the lower atmosphere, experienced record high May-September driving the trends of increasing heat and forest fire danger index values. worsening extreme weather. Human- driven greenhouse gas pollution has been rising strongly since the mid-20th century. Rapid and deep reductions in the level of greenhouse gas pollution is the only way to slow and eventually halt the strong upward trend in global temperature and the trend towards more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Figure 2: Santa Rosa, California, devastated by wildfires in October 2017. CHAPTER 02 4 GLOBAL HEAT RECORDS IN 2017

2. Global Heat Records in 2017

Global average temperature for 2017 was Although 2017 was the third hottest year 0.84°C* warmer than the 20th century globally, it was the hottest year on record in average (NOAA 2018a), equivalent to which the temperature was not boosted by an approximately 1°C temperature rise an El Niño event (Box 1). Both 2015 and 2016, since the pre-industrial period. It was the only years with higher global average the third hottest year globally. Together temperature than 2017, were influenced by with 2014, 2015 and 2016, 2017 was one an exceptionally strong El Niño event that of the four hottest years ever recorded straddled the two years. 2017 was much in the 138-year global temperature warmer than the previous non-El Niño year archive. The average global temperature of 2014, and was also much warmer than for the 2013-2017 period was the highest recent El Niño-boosted years, such as 2010, recorded for any five-year period (NOAA 2003 and 1998 (Figure 3), reflecting the 2018a). The world’s 10 hottest years on dominance of the long-term warming trend record have all occurred since 1998 and associated with climate change. 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century (NOAA 2018a).

17 of the 18 hottest years have occurred this century.

* Temperature data in this report are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, from the US. For more information regarding the data, please refer to the official NOAA website: www.noaa.gov 5 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

BOX 1: THE EL NIÑO CONNECTION

The long-term trend since the mid-20th (BoM definition, taken from BoM website). In century of increasing global temperatures addition to drier conditions in the east, El Niño is undeniably driven primarily by events usually bring (i) warmer temperatures, (ii) greenhouse gas pollution from human increased fire danger in the southeast and (iii) activities, but from year-to-year, modes of reduced tropical cyclone numbers to Australia. natural variability can add tweaks to the long-term trend. One of the most important Globally, an El Niño event provides an extra boost modes of variability is the El Niño- to the global average temperature, typically around Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. 0.1 – 0.2°C (Trenberth et al. 2002; Foster and Rahmstorf 2011). El Niño years stand out as being The El Niño phase of ENSO refers to the extensive somewhat warmer than the years around them, warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and, conversely, La Niña years (the opposite phase that leads to a major shift in weather patterns of ENSO to El Niño) are somewhat cooler (Figure 3), across the Pacific. In Australia, particularly but they do not alter the long-term, multi-decadal eastern Australia, El Niño events are associated global warming trend. with an increased probability of drier conditions

Figure 3: Global temperature anomalies relative to the 1981–2010 average, showing El Niño, Neutral and La Niña years.

2017 - THE WARMEST NON-EL NIÑO YEAR ON RECORD

El Niño 0.6 Neutral La Niña 0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4

Anomaly relative to 1981–2010 (°C) Weak then strong El Niño conditions held through 2015 -0.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Note: 2017 data point shows global mean temperature for the period January to September 2017 (0.47°±0.08°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average). Source: Adapted from WMO 2017. CHAPTER 02 6 GLOBAL HEAT RECORDS IN 2017

Global temperature records tumbled yet again in 2017. Here are some examples:

›› Hong Kong experienced its warmest January on record (NOAA 2017a).

›› Germany, France and Austria had their warmest March on record (NOAA 2017b).

›› May, June and July temperatures were the hottest on record in Africa (NOAA 2017c, 2017d, 2017e).

›› Austria recorded a new May national maximum temperature on 30 May 2017, when temperatures reached 35°C (NOAA 2017c).

›› The July 2017 global land temperature was the highest on record, 1.2°C above the 20th century average of 14.3°C (NOAA 2017e).

›› The Kingdom of Bahrain had its warmest July since records began in 1902, with a national temperature of 36.9°C (3°C above average) (NOAA 2017e).

›› Portugal had its highest October temperature on record (NOAA 2017f).

›› Alaska had its warmest December on record (NOAA 2018b). 7 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

3. Australian Heat Records Broken in 2017

2017 continued a long trend of Rainfall was a somewhat different story increasing heat, ‘angry summers’ through 2017, with very dry conditions through and smashed weather records across the middle of the year, but wetter conditions Australia. The country experienced during the last quarter of the year. June 2017 its third warmest year on record; the was the second driest June on record, while annual average temperature across September was the driest on record for the the continent was 0.95°C warmer than Murray-Darling Basin. the 1961-1990 average (BoM 2018). The maximum temperatures across the The records listed below are referenced against country were the second highest on the 1961–1990 average, and are sourced from record. Oceans around Australia also BoM’s climate archives (http://www.bom.gov. recorded temperatures through 2017 au/climate/current/statement_archives.shtml). that were well above average. CHAPTER 03 8 AUSTRALIAN HEAT RECORDS BROKEN IN 2017

Summer Autumn

›› Sydney and Brisbane had their hottest ›› Mean maximum temperatures were very summers on record. much above average (+1.21°C) for Australia, the seventh warmest autumn on record. ›› Canberra experienced its warmest summer on record for daytime ›› March was an exceptionally warm temperatures. month. The national mean temperature was the third highest on record, 1.66°C ›› January and February heatwaves caused above average, while the national mean record hot days and nights for southern maximum temperature was 1.87°C above Queensland and northern to eastern New average, the second warmest on record for South Wales. March.

›› Moree had 54 consecutive days of 35°C or ›› Mean maximum temperatures were the above, a new record for New South Wales. warmest on record for autumn for parts of western Queensland and the Northern ›› On 11 February the state-wide New South Territory. Wales average maximum temperature reached 44°C, the hottest February day on ›› Launceston (37 years of record) had its record. warmest night (highest daily minimum temperature) on record on 16 March. ›› Both Moorabbin and Laverton (outer suburbs of Melbourne) experienced their ›› On 26 March, five locations in South hottest January night on record on the 8th. Australia experienced their highest autumn temperature on record - Tarcoola Aero (44°C), Nullarbor (43.4°C), Woomera Aerodrome (43°C), Minnipa Pirsa (42.4°C) and Coulta (Coles Point) (40.6°C). 9 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

Winter Spring

›› Australia had its warmest winter on record ›› Spring was the sixth-warmest on record for average maximum temperatures, for national average temperatures. reaching nearly 2°C above average. ›› 22 September was the hottest September ›› Australia had its fifth warmest winter on day experienced in Australia since records record for average temperatures. began, with a temperature of 33.47°C, more than six degrees warmer than the ›› Queensland, Western Australia and the September average. Northern Territory had their highest winter average maximum temperatures ›› High temperature records for September on record. were set in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. ›› Winter days were the second-warmest on record for South Australia and the third ›› Melbourne had a record 15 days of 30°C or warmest for New South Wales. more during spring.

›› Cape Jaffa in South Australia experienced its highest spring mean daily temperature on record (37.4 °C).

›› Derby Aerodrome in Western Australia had a record high spring temperature of 44.8°C on 30 October. CHAPTER 04 10 CONSEQUENCES OF 2017 RECORD HEAT: IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER GLOBALLY

4. Consequences of 2017 Record Heat: Impacts of Extreme Weather Globally

Extreme weather has had devastating The increasing global heat associated with impacts across all areas of the world in climate change is now influencing all 2017—from intense monsoonal rains extreme weather events, because all extreme and consequent flooding in South Asia, weather events are now occurring in a more to powerful hurricanes striking the energetic climate system with a hotter, Caribbean and the southern United moister atmosphere (Trenberth 2012). Many States, while wildfires caused numerous extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, fatalities and destruction across bushfires and coastal flooding are occurring southern Europe and California. Figure more frequently and becoming more 4 provides an overview of some of the damaging. 2017 provided more evidence of major extreme weather events of 2017. the increasing impacts and risks that climate change is driving for our health and well- being, our livelihoods and economies, and for the natural world.

Climate change is now influencing all extreme weather events. Figure 4: Global overview of some of the major extreme weather events of 2017.

MAJOR EXTREME IN WEATHER EVENTS 2017

ITALY TEXAS, U.S. Hurricane Harvey Drought Prolonged extreme rainfall and flooding, Record-breaking heat including the single largest rainfall event and well below average recorded on the mainland. rainfall resulted in less agricultural productivity. $125 billion in damages (NOAA 2018c).

PORTUGAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, U.S. CARRIBEAN & U.S.

Wildfires Wildfires Hurricane Irma 64 deaths during a High-intensity fires Winds of 300 km/h and major fire, exacerbated with the most number three consecutive days as by extreme heat and of deaths (41) in the a Category 5 hurricane. drought. U.S. since 1918. 72 deaths (Phys.Org 2017) and $50 billion in damages (NOAA 2018c).

SOMALIA PERU Drought Flooding More than 50% of cropland a ected, 75 people died and number of people on 70,000 were left brink of famine is homeless after severe 800,000. flooding.

SOUTH ASIA AUSTRALIA CHILE

Extreme monsoonal Extreme heat Heatwaves rains and flooding Scorching temperatures Many areas had their highest 1,200+ deaths, occurred in NSW in January temperatures on record, 40 million+ people February, reaching including Santiago (37.4°C). displaced or a ected. 47°C in some parts. The hot, dry conditions caused massive wildfires, burning homes and forests (Reuters 2017).

Source: Based on information presented in WMO 2017, unless otherwise stated. CHAPTER 05 12 IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA IN 2017

5. Impacts of Extreme Weather in Australia in 2017

In Australia, extreme weather events in 2017 drove serious impacts. This For more details about the section explores these impacts. influence of climate change on extreme weather events and the escalating impacts and risks, please refer to the Climate Council report: Cranking Up The Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events.

Figure 5: Bushfires in southeast Australia have become more frequent and dangerous due to climate change. 13 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

5.1 Heat-related Extreme Weather

5.1.1 Heatwaves

Extreme heat is a serious health threat for Extreme heat increases the risk of heat- many Australians, often called the silent related illness and can also exacerbate pre- killer. Major heatwaves have caused more existing conditions – children, the elderly deaths since 1890 than bushfires, cyclones, and outdoor workers are most at risk (ABS earthquakes, floods and severe storms 2015; Watts et al. 2015). Australia’s mortality combined (DIT 2013; Coates et al. 2014). data indicate that over the past four decades Longer, hotter and more intense heatwaves there has been a steady increase in the in Australia are being driven by climate number of deaths in summer compared change. For example, since 1960, the number to those in winter, suggesting that climate of record hot days has doubled (Perkins and change may already be affecting mortality Alexander 2013; Cowan et al. 2014). rates (Bennett et al. 2013). Extreme heatwaves led to a 10% increase in both deaths and ambulance callouts in New South Wales from 2005 to 2015 (Jegasothy et al. 2017).

Figure 6: Power pylons in southeast Australia – climate change is worsening extreme weather including heatwaves and is increasing the vulnerability of energy systems to blackouts. CHAPTER 05 14 IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA IN 2017

The most severe heatwave of last summer Several days later on 10 February, New South was in southeast Australia, which Wales experienced the same heatwave with experienced daytime temperatures over temperatures at Sydney Airport reaching 40°C. The highest temperatures recorded 42.9°C, its hottest February temperature on were 48.2°C on 9 February at Tarcoola, South record (BoM 2017d). With near record all-time Australia, followed by 47.9 °C on 12 February peak electricity demand, the state narrowly at Walgett, New South Wales (BoM 2017a). avoided widespread blackouts. Imports of This heatwave was made twice as likely to electricity via three interconnections with occur because of climate change (Perkins- Victoria and Queensland ran above design Kirkpatrick et al. 2017), while the extreme heat limits, contributing 12% to meeting peak in New South Wales over the entire summer demand (AEMO 2017). Around 3000MW season was at least 50 times as likely to occur of fossil fuel plant was not available due because of climate change (King et al. 2017). to: tripping off (400MW), unable to start (760MW), out for maintenance (1000MW) The same severe heatwave in early February or output limited due to cooling water 2017 caused issues for the South Australian limits (600MW). At one stage, the Tomago and New South Wales energy systems. In aluminium smelter shed 580 MW of load. South Australia, 40,000 people were left It was this, and careful use by consumers, without power for about half an hour in the saving 200MW, that allowed New South early evening 8 February while temperatures Wales to avoid widespread blackouts. were over 40°C. The highest temperature in South Australia recorded on 8 February was This heatwave in February 2017 highlights at Moomba where the daytime maximum the vulnerability of our energy systems to reached 46.6°C at Moomba Airport, while extreme weather. Climate change is making Adelaide reached a high of 42.4°C (BoM heatwaves longer, hotter and more frequent, 2017b, c). This extreme summer heat placed increasing stresses on Australia’s ageing the energy system under great pressure energy infrastructure. (despite energy supply being available). 15 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

5.1.2 Bushfires

Climate change is increasing the likelihood Hot weather, combined with very dry of dangerous bushfire weather, particularly conditions in New South Wales and the in the southwest and southeast of Australia. Australian Capital Territory, led to tinderbox As temperatures continue to rise, climate fire conditions in January and February change is lengthening the fire season, which 2017. During the February heatwave, nearly now extends well beyond summer, into 100 bushfires were raging simultaneously in October and March, in many regions (Clarke New South Wales (BBC 2017), and destroyed et al. 2013). Analysis of global climate data at least 30 homes (ABC 2017a). Meanwhile has shown that the frequency of long fire in Victoria, 40 fires were burning in mid- weather seasons has increased in eastern January with temperatures across much of Australia (VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD) - where Victoria exceeding 40°C (News Limited 2017). around 77% of the population live (ABS 2015; Jolly et al. 2015). Dangerous bushfire weather is becoming more common in the south and east of Australia (CSIRO and BoM 2016), and climate change is projected to lead to harsher fire weather in the southeast of Australia over the coming decades (CSIRO and BoM 2015).

Southwest and southeast Australia is facing increasingly dangerous bushfire seasons because of intensifying climate change. CHAPTER 05 16 IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA IN 2017

5.2 Impacts on Ecosystems

Ecosystems suffer severe impacts from heat- The severe summer heat in 2017 has also related extreme weather. affected terrestrial wildlife such as flying foxes, which are particularly susceptible The Great Barrier Reef experienced its worst to extreme heat events. Exposure to air ever bleaching event in 2016 (Figure 7) temperatures over 40°C can lead to heat resulting in the mortality of two-thirds of the stress and death from dehydration, especially coral in the pristine, northern sector. Warmer when very hot conditions are accompanied than average sea surface temperatures off by dry weather (Climate Council 2017a). The the Queensland east coast again triggered February 2017 heatwave caused thousands of another bleaching event in 2017, with further flying fox deaths across southeast Australia. consequences for the reef’s health. The The worst affected areas were in northern Great Barrier Reef employs around 70,000 New South Wales, where more than 2,000 people (Deloitte Access Economics 2013) and flying foxes died (ABC 2017b). contributes around $7 billion to the national economy annually (Jacobs 2016), so the loss in tourism as a result of coral bleaching could be dire for the region.

Figure 7: After the Great Barrier Reef’s worst mass bleaching event in its history in 2016, above-average sea surface temperatures in summer 2017 triggered a second year of bleaching (photo of bleaching near Port Douglas). 17 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

5.3 Tropical Cyclones

Category-four Tropical Cyclone Debbie The most direct influence of climate change struck Northern Queensland in late March on the impacts of tropical cyclones is via 2017 before tracking slowly down into coastal flooding. Typically, the damage from southern Queensland and northern NSW tropical cyclones comes from: (i) excessively as an ex-tropical cyclone. This event caused high winds that directly damage built the loss of power to tens of thousands of infrastructure and the natural environment; homes and the evacuation of thousands as and (ii) coastal flooding caused by a storm powerful storms brought heavy rainfall and surge and by the heavy rainfall that often mass flooding. At least five Australians died accompanies the storm (Climate Council and damages are estimated at $2 billion (The 2017b). Guardian 2017). Cyclone Debbie is a tragic reminder of how Trends in tropical cyclone frequency extreme weather events place lives, property and intensity are difficult to discern for and critical infrastructure at risk. Climate the Australian region due to the short change is intensifying many extreme observational records, as well as high year-to- weather events in an atmosphere that is year variability. However, where a long record warmer and wetter because of increasing of reliable data exists, some trends have greenhouse gas emissions from human been identified in tropical cyclone activity in activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels the past few decades, such as a statistically – coal, oil and gas. significant increase in intense cyclone activity in the North Atlantic region since the 1970s (Kossin et al. 2007; IPCC 2013).

Climate change is worsening many extreme weather events, risking the lives and livelihoods of Australians. CHAPTER 06 18 THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE IS CLOSING

6. The Window of Opportunity to Tackle Climate Change is Closing

The 2017 global heat and its associated target, global greenhouse gas pollution impacts are yet another reminder of must have peaked by 2020 and we need to the urgency of the challenge to reduce reach net-zero emissions in about 25 years emissions. Furthermore, 2018 started (Figure 8). Delaying peak emissions to 2025 with more climate disruption. would leave too little time to transform the economy; the world would be locked into a On 7 January 2018, Sydney was the hottest very dangerous future (Figueres et al. 2017; city on Earth over a 24-hour period with the Rockström et al. 2017). temperature at the western suburb of Penrith reaching 47.3°C (ABC 2018). In the northern While the greenhouse gas pollution from hemisphere, the ongoing exceptional heating most of our closest allies’—the United States, around the north pole – twice the global European Union and the United Kingdom— average – is breaking down circumpolar air are trending downwards, Australia’s flows that normally keep the cold air around emissions have been rising steadily since the north pole and more temperate air to the March 2015 (Australia Government 2017a). south (Mann 2017; Mann 2018). As Sydney We have rapidly become the global laggard was sweltering, icy polar air was penetrating on climate change. Indeed, Australia holds as far south as Florida while unusually the embarrassing title of being the fourth warm conditions were experienced north of worst country out of 57 ranked nations on Finland (SMH 2018). tackling climate change, only ahead of Iran, the Republic of Korea and Saudi Arabia Tackling climate change is urgent. There (Germanwatch 2017). Furthermore, without is no time to lose if we are to meet the a policy to reduce emissions and a pathway Paris Agreement goal of limiting global to do so, it is unlikely that Australia will meet temperature rise to no more than 2°C above its 2030 emission reduction target (UNEP pre-industrial levels, and prevent worsening 2017; Australian Government 2017b), which is extreme weather and other escalating already well below what is necessary to tackle risks of climate change. To meet the 2°C climate change (CCA 2015). 19 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER

Figure 8: Emission reduction trajectories for meeting the Paris target(s). The year of peak emissions has an enormous effect on the steepness of the subsequent trajectory. Delaying peak emissions to 2025 is too late for any achievable emission reduction trajectory.

50 Peaking emissions now Delaying the peak by a will give us 25 years to 2020 2025 decade gives too little time reduce emissions to zero. 2016 to transform the economy.

40

30

Historical emissions* 20 600-Gt carbon budget 2016 peak (best) emissions (Gt per year)

2 2020

CO 10 2025 800-Gt carbon budget 2020 peak

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Figueres et al. 2017.

But there is hope. States, territories, local and aims to reach net-zero emissions in its councils and individuals are taking the lead. entire economy by 2050 at the latest (Climate Australia is a world leader in the uptake Council 2017b). Such action at the state level of household solar with nearly 1.7 million shows that meeting the climate change systems installed, and industrial-scale solar challenge is possible. systems are being rolled out at an increasing rate. Wind energy is becoming a major The many heat-related records of 2017 are source of electricity in Australia’s populous yet another reminder that the task of dealing southeast. South Australia already generates effectively with climate change is urgent. nearly 50% of its electricity from renewables The solutions to the challenge are appearing (Climate Council 2017b), and is moving rapidly and the pathway to a prosperous, forward on solar thermal and energy storage carbon-neutral society is becoming clearer. technologies, including the commissioning What we now need at the national level is of the world’s largest lithium-ion battery leadership, a clear vision for tackling climate in December 2017. The Australian Capital change, and coherent policies for getting the Territory will be 100% renewable by 2020, job done. REFERENCES 20

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