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Another Record-Breaking Year for Heat and Extreme Weather 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-46-6 (print) 978-1-925573-47-3 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2018 Professor Will Steffen This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material Climate Councillor contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Dr. Martin Rice 2017: Another record-breaking year for heat and extreme weather Authors: Professor Will Steffen, Dr. Martin Rice and Dr. David Alexander. Head of Research, Climate Council — Image credit: Cover photo “Big Sun on sunset. Nature composition.” (ID: 131341742) copyright by djgis. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. Dr. David Alexander Researcher facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au CLIMATE COUNCIL I Contents Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................................................................ii 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................................................1 2. Global Heat Records in 2017 ................................................................................................................................................ 4 3. Australian Heat Records Broken in 2017 ...............................................................................................................................7 4. Consequences of 2017 Record Heat: Impacts of Extreme Weather Globally ...................................................... 10 5. Impacts of Extreme Weather in Australia in 2017 ...................................................................................................... 12 5.1 Heat-related Extreme Weather 13 5.1.1 Heatwaves 13 5.1.2 Bushfires 15 5.2 Impacts on Ecosystems 16 5.3 Tropical Cyclones 17 6. The Window of Opportunity to Tackle Climate Change is Closing ...................................................................... 18 References ......................................................................................................................................................................................20 Image Credits ................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 II 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER Key Findings 1 2 The four hottest years on record are 2016, 2015, Temperature records toppled across Australia 2017 and 2014, continuing the strong, long- through 2017. term upswing in global temperatures. › 2017 was Australia’s third warmest year on record. › The 2013-2017 period has been the hottest five- year period ever recorded. › Seven of the ten hottest years on record in Australia have happened since 2005. Five of the › 2017 was the third hottest year ever recorded, and seven have occurred the past five years. was the hottest year where the temperature was not boosted by an El Niño event. › 2017 broke records for hot, dry conditions with more than 260 heat and low rainfall records broken › The world’s 10 hottest years on record have all throughout winter. occurred since 1998 and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century. › Many remarkable records were set across Australia in 2017. In the summer, Moree had 54 consecutive days of 35°C or above. In autumn, Launceston experienced its warmest night on record on 16 March. Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory had their highest winter average maximum temperatures on record. Cape Jaffa in South Australia experienced its highest spring mean daily temperature on record. › Oceans around Australia also experienced record breaking heatwaves, with high sea surface temperatures contributing to mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in early 2017. KEY FINDINGS III 3 The increasing global heat, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, exacerbated extreme weather events around the globe and in Australia in 2017. › Floods: Massive flooding in South Asia took over a thousand lives. › Fires: Forests across southern Europe and in California were devastated by wildfires. NSW experienced an early start to the bushfire season. › Cyclones: A series of destructive tropical cyclones swept across the Caribbean and southern US with some of the most intense rainfall and winds ever recorded. Tropical Cyclone Debbie struck Queensland and NSW causing power losses to homes and the evacuation of thousands as storms brought heavy rainfall and mass flooding. At least five Australians died, and the damage bill is an estimated $2 billion. › Heat: During a February 2017 heatwave nearly 100 bushfires in New South Wales destroyed at least 30 homes. This same severe heatwave caused problems for the South Australian and New South Wales energy systems. climatecouncil.org.au 1 2017: ANOTHER RECORD-BREAKING YEAR FOR HEAT AND EXTREME WEATHER 1. Introduction More record-breaking heat was In fact, 2013-2017 was the hottest five-year experienced around the world in period on record (NOAA 2018a; Figure 1). 2017, with the year joining 2014, 2015 This recent record heat is part of a long-term and 2016 as the four hottest years global warming trend that began most clearly ever recorded in the 138-year global in the mid-20th century and has continued temperature archive. unabated since then. The world’s 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998 and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred this century. Figure 1: Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, from 1880 to present, using 1951-1980 as a baseline period. The average temperature of both hot and cold years has risen rapidly since the 1970s. GLOBAL LAND−OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX 1.0 ‘Hot’ years warming .8 Annual Mean 5−year Running Mean .6 .4 .2 0. Temperature Anomaly (°C) −.2 ‘Cold’ years warming −.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: Adapted from NASA 2018. CHAPTER 01 2 INTRODUCTION The last five-year period has been the hottest such period ever recorded. Australia experienced its third hottest year Globally, intense monsoonal rains and on record in 2017. The ‘Angry Summer’ of consequent flooding in South Asia led to 2016-17 broke more than 205 climate records more than 1,200 deaths and left 40 million across the nation, and included several people displaced or affected. Within one intense heatwaves in January and February. month, a series of powerful, damaging In winter, over 260 records were broken once hurricanes—Harvey, Irma and Maria – tore again across the country, with the winter through the Caribbean and southern United of 2017 the hottest on record for maximum States, leading to some of the most intense temperatures. Low rainfall records were also rainfall and winds ever recorded. Heavy broken throughout the season, resulting, rains in Peru led to landslides leaving 75 along with the high temperatures, in an early people dead and making tens of thousands start to the bushfire season across much of homeless. Meanwhile, wildfires brought New South Wales. Oceans around Australia on by extreme heat and drought caused recorded temperatures well above average devastation across the Mediterranean, with through the year. Portugal worst hit. California was also hit by wildfires in October and December, leaving a The ongoing, long-term trend of record- trail of devastation across the state (Figure 2). breaking heat is increasing the frequency and destructiveness of many extreme The record-breaking heat and its associated weather events, with devastating impacts in impacts are amongst the most prominent Australia and elsewhere around the world. fingerprints of climate change and are Early in 2017, the Great Barrier Reef suffered primarily caused by the human emission its second consecutive mass bleaching of carbon dioxide from the burning of event as a result of prolonged high sea coal, oil and gas. Carbon dioxide and other surface temperatures, while later in the year, greenhouse gases trap additional heat at the Queensland and northern New South Wales Earth’s surface and in the lower atmosphere, experienced record high May-September driving the trends of increasing heat and forest fire danger index values. worsening extreme weather. Human- driven greenhouse gas pollution has been rising strongly since the mid-20th century. Rapid and deep reductions in the level of greenhouse gas pollution is the only way to slow and eventually halt the strong upward trend in global temperature and the trend towards more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Figure 2: Santa Rosa, California, devastated by wildfires in October 2017. CHAPTER 02 4 GLOBAL
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