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Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Super-Charging Extreme Weather

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Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Super-Charging Extreme Weather ANGRY SUMMER 2016/17: CLIMATE CHANGE SUPER-CHARGING EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-19-0 (print) 978-1-925573-18-3 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2017 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material Professor Will Steffen contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd Climate Councillor except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Super-charging Extreme Weather by Professor Will Steffen, Andrew Stock, Dr David Alexander and Dr Martin Andrew Stock Rice. Climate Councillor — Image credit: Cover photo: “With the Going Down of the Sun” by Flickr user Alex Proimos licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. Dr David Alexander Researcher, Climate Council facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au Dr Martin Rice Head of Research, Climate Council CLIMATE COUNCIL I Contents Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................................................................ii Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................... iv 1. Temperature Records Tumble, Yet Again: Summer of 2016/17 ..................................................................................1 1.1 Capital Cities 3 1.2 Regional Australia 5 2. Impacts of Extreme Heat ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Health 6 2.2 Energy Systems 7 2.3 Ecosystems 8 2.4 Bushfires 9 3. This is the Critical Decade to Reduce Emissions ........................................................................................................ 10 References 13 Image Credits 16 II ANGRY SUMMER 2016/17: CLIMATE CHANGE SUPER-CHARGING EXTREME WEATHER Key Findings 1 2 The Australian summer of 2016/17 marked Climate change is driving hotter, longer lasting the return of the Angry Summer with record- and more frequent heatwaves. breaking heat especially in the east of the nation. The Angry Summer was characterised › The 2016/17 extreme summer heat in New South by intense heatwaves, hot days and bushfires Wales was at least 50 times more likely to occur in central and eastern Australia, while heavy due to climate change. rainfall and flooding affected the west of the country. Noteworthy records from this › Protecting Australians from the impacts of summer include: summers with relentless extreme heat requires the uptake of cheap, clean and efficient renewable › In just 90 days, more than 205 records were broken energy and the phasing out fossil fuels. around Australia. › Commissioning new fossil fuel (coal, oil and › The state-wide mean temperature in summer gas) projects is incompatible with limiting the was the hottest for New South Wales since records dangerous impacts of climate change, such as the began, with temperatures 2.57°C above average. failure of critical infrastructure. › Sydney had its hottest summer on record with a mean temperature 2.8°C above average. › Brisbane had its hottest summer on record in terms of mean temperature at 26.8°C, equivalent to 1.7°C above average. › Canberra had its hottest summer on record in terms of daytime temperatures and recorded temperatures of at least 35°C on 18 days, already far higher than what is projected for 2030 (12 days). › Adelaide experienced its hottest Christmas day in 70 years at 41.3°C. › Moree in regional New South Wales experienced 54 consecutive days of temperatures 35°C or above, a record for the state. › Perth had its highest summer total rainfall on record of 192.8 mm. KEY FINDINGS III 3 4 Escalating extreme weather is putting The costs of the extreme heat are clear with Australia’s ageing energy system under reduced work productivity, increasing risk of intense pressure. bushfires and escalating damage to the Great Barrier Reef. › Australia’s energy system is ageing, inefficient and polluting, and during the Angry Summer proved › The impacts of the last Angry Summer of 2013/14 unable to cope with escalating extreme weather, cost the Australian economy approximately $8 like heatwaves. billion through absenteeism and a reduction in work productivity. The economic impact from › Days of extreme heat and heatwaves will become the 2016/17 Angry Summer has not yet been even more frequent and severe in Australia, and quantified. will increase the risks to critical infrastructure (e.g. electricity), the economy, health and ecosystems. › Above-average sea surface temperatures this summer have triggered a new bleaching outbreak on the Great Barrier Reef. This follows the worst mass bleaching event in the reef’s history in 2016. › Extreme fire weather is increasing in Australia’s southeast. During the most severe heatwave of this recent Australian summer, nearly 100 bushfires were ignited and raged through parts of inland New South Wales. climatecouncil.org.au IV ANGRY SUMMER 2016/17: CLIMATE CHANGE SUPER-CHARGING EXTREME WEATHER Introduction The Australian summer of 2016/17 2016 was the hottest year on record, with marked the return of the Angry many heat records broken around the world. Summer with record-breaking heat, It was the third consecutive year in which especially in the east of the nation. the global average temperature record was The summer was characterised by broken. The Australian cities of Sydney and intense heatwaves, hot days and Darwin had their hottest years on record bushfires in central and eastern (maximum and minimum temperatures), Australia, while heavy rainfall and while Brisbane and Canberra had their record flooding affected the west of the hottest and equal third-hottest years (annual country, indicative of a warming mean temperature), respectively (BoM 2017d). climate holding more moisture in the Above-average sea surface temperatures this atmosphere. This summer follows summer offered no reprieve to our iconic hot on the heels of previous Angry reefs under threat from climate change, with Summer in 2012/13 and 2013/14, with a new bleaching outbreak underway in the Australians again enduring record- Great Barrier Reef and elsewhere in Australia. breaking extreme weather events driven by climate change. Climate change – driven largely by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the burning of coal, oil and gas – is increasing temperatures and cranking up the intensity of extreme weather events globally and in Australia. The global heat record of 2016, along with the record- breaking summer of 2016/17, is part of the long-term warming trend (Figure 1). Australia has warmed by about 1°C since 1910, with the majority of warming occurring since Climate change the 1950s (CSIRO and BoM 2016). Global temperatures have already reached 1.1°C – driven largely above pre-industrial levels (UK Met Office 2017), and the accumulating energy in the by the burning of atmosphere is affecting all extreme weather events (Trenberth 2012). Climate change is coal, oil and gas – driving global warming at a rate 170 times faster than the baseline rate over the past is cranking up the 7,000 years (Steffen et al. 2016). intensity of extreme weather events. INTRODUCTION V Climate change is worsening the impacts Despite the urgent need for greenhouse from heatwaves and hot weather and is emissions to be trending strongly putting a strain on critical infrastructure. downwards, Australia’s emissions have risen This summer alone has shown the 0.8% in the last year (Commonwealth of vulnerability of the electricity grid to Australia 2016a), with much of the emissions heatwaves, with power outages during peak coming from the electricity sector. This times in South Australia during a severe rise puts into serious doubt whether even February heatwave, while New South Wales Australia’s very weak emissions reduction narrowly avoided widespread outages several target of 26-28% by 2030 can be achieved. days later. The hot weather, combined with The only approach to slowing and eventually very dry conditions, led to tinderbox fire halting the increasing trend of heat-related conditions in New South Wales in early extreme weather is to rapidly increase the February prior to, and during, the most severe uptake of renewable energy and to phase-out heatwave of the Australian summer. During all forms of coal fired power plants, as well as the heatwave itself, nearly 100 bushfires were phasing out other fossil fuels. ignited and raged through parts of inland New South Wales. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Temperature Anomaly (°C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Figure 1: Column graph
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