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The Bosnian Crisis of 1992

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The Bosnian Crisis of 1992 THE NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN RESEARC H TITLE : The Bosnian Crisis of 1992 AUTHOR: Paul Shoup CONTRACTOR : University of Virgini a PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Paul Shoup COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER : 806-14 DATE : June 23, 1992 The work leading to this report was supported by contract funds provided by the National Council for Soviet an d East European Research. The analysis and interpretations contained in the report are those of the author . COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Individual researchers retain the copyright on work products derived from research funded by Council Contract . The Council and the U.S. Government have the right to duplicate written reports and other materials submitte d under Council Contract and to distribute such copies within the Council and U.S. Government for their own use , and to draw upon such reports and materials for their own studies ; but the Council and U.S. Government do no t have the right to distribute, or make such reports and materials available, outside the Council or U.S. Government without the written consent of the authors, except as may be required under the provisions of th e Freedom of Information Act 5 U.S.C. 552, or other applicable law. NCSEER NOTE The main body of this paper is an interpretive description of the chain of event s leading to, and encompassing the Bosnian crisis of 1992, and an analysis of their causes an d consequences, beginning with a brief history of the area and becoming increasingly detaile d to June 1992 . In the penultinate section (pages 40-43) the author gives his "bottom line " perception of the crisis and possible resolutions of it . He ends with five brief principal conclusions (pages 43-45) . Professor Paul Shoup Dept of Government and Foreign Affairs University of Virginia THE BOSNIAN CRISIS OF 1992* * (Paper delivered to conference "Beyond Yugoslavia," Budapest, June 9-12, 1992 ) (This paper reflects work in progress . The author welcomes comments . Please address them to Paul Shoup, Radio Free Europe, Oettinger Strasse 67, 8000 Munich 22 . FAX : 089-2102 - 3215) "Zar u ovoj ludnici nije dovoljno ludila? Zar niko sem Bosanaca i Hercegovaca n e moze shvatiti da bi podjela BiH po nacionalnom principu ovaj rat ucinila jos gorim i bestijalnim? " (Zlatan Cabaravdic, Vreme, May 11 1992 p. 14) For the past two months, we have been witness to the agony of a civil war in Bosnia - Hercegovina . Of all the republics of the former Yugoslavia, Bosnia Hercegovina --or Bosni a as we shall refer to the republic, mindful of how, when the violence finally clamped its gri p on Mostar, the people of that city gathered in a rally for peace, and for the first time in thei r history said, "We are Bosnians"1 -- least deserved this fate . The destruction of Bosnia , furthermore, marks a point of no return for Yugoslavia, her final demise, either as a "Thir d Yugoslavia," a "Greater Serbia", or a loose association of successor republics . No one can say what now lies ahead, except, perhaps, a period of turmoil, ending in boundary changes , exchanges of population, and possibly the end of the new-born state of Bosnia itself . The **The author would like to acknowledge the support of the National Council for Soviet an d East European Research in carrying out the research on this paper, and to express his thank s to Radio Free Europe, who put their facilities at his disposal . Vreme, 2 blame for this situation lies above all with the national parties who have sought to carve u p Bosnia into national mini-states. Yet all the players in this tragedy, including the international actors, bear responsibility for the present situation . While the subject of this paper was to be the "fault lines and politics of Bosnia," th e events of recent months have overwhelmed the distinction between domestic and internationa l events suggested by this theme . Fault lines there are in Bosnia, as never before in her history, but they are the product of divisions within Bosnian society which have bee n activated by the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the collapse of communism, forces whic h have their origins outside Bosnia proper . Before the present crisis, Bosnia was a society where the three major nationalities - Moslems, Serbs and Croats - lived in apparent harmony . The region's boundaries, with som e interruptions, were among the most enduring in the Balkans . Yet, at the same time, Bosni a was a region which lived under the shadow of her neighbors . The presence in Bosnia of Serbs, Croats, and Moslems of undetermined nationality excited the cupidity of Croatia an d Serbia in the 19th century, just as it has today. Bosnia's autonomy, stable borders and he r tradition of tolerance could survive only under the benevolent patronage of others - at on e time Austria, at another Yugoslavia. Absent such patrons, Bosnia was a nationalists' deligh t and a statesman's nightmare - a witch's brew of ethnic Slav nationalities, who left alone , might live in peace, but could always be aroused - through fear, cupidity or ignorance - t o communal violence and ethnic warfare . These facts conditioned the history of Bosnia : for the most part, united, and at peace, under Austrian and Yugoslav rule ; yet also subject t o violent periods of civil war and partition, notably during World War II . 3 Now let us turn, first to the problems of Bosnia's borders and her ethnic makeup , which occupy such a prominent role in the present crisis . The civil war is not being fought over Bosnia's boundaries with the remainin g Yugoslav republics . These, for the moment, remain intact, a mocking tribute to th e principles of "no border changes without consent" enshrined in the Helsinki Agreement o f 1975 . As for Bosnia's internal boundaries prior to World War II, it is best to leave a discussion of the problem for another occasion . Suffice it to say that these borders (fo r example, of the Banovina of Croatia) are of little help in deciding where the boundaries o f national units should be drawn today . Prewar data on the ethnic make-up of Bosnia are, on the other hand, still relevant for understanding the present situation - especially if, as one (Moslem) commentator callousl y noted, one counts both heads and gravestones .' This is because the national composition o f the population of Bosnia has undergone dramatic changes as a result of demographic trends , changes in census categories, and casualties and outmigrations resulting from World War II . (The single greatest difference in census data for the prewar period and today, is tha t Moslems are now recognized as a nationality in their own right .)3 According to Kocovic, ou t of a total population in 1931 of 2 .323 million in Bosnia in its present boundaries, 1 .02 2 [Counting heads and gravestones - footnote to be added] 3 In the 1948 census, Moslem Slavs were identified as Moslem - Serb, Croat, o r Unspecified ; in 1953, as "Moslems unspecified," in 1961 "Moslems in the ethnic sense," an d in 1971, 1981, and 1991, "Moslems" . For the of the Moslems in Bosnia, see Zachary Irwin , "The Islamic Revival and the Muslims of Bosnia-Hercegovina," The East European Quarterly , Vol. 17, No. 4, (January, 1984), pp . [???] and Irena Reuter-Hendrichs, "Jugoslawien s Muslime," Sudosteuropa Mitteilungen, Vol 29, No. 2 (1989), pp . 105-115 . 4 million were Serbs, 715 thousand Moslems, and 516 thousand Croatians .4 In 1991, of a total population of 4 .124 million, 1 .9 million were Moslem, 1 .4 million Serb, and 755 thousand Croatian (43 .7% Moslem, 31 .4% Serb and 17 .3% Croatian, to cite a now very familiar statistic) . 5 In brief, while Serbs were approximately half the population of Bosnia in 1931 , and more than double the number of Moslems (assuming that the data on religious persuasio n reported in 1931 can be equated with nationality), the situation has now almost reverse d itself, with the Moslems the dominant nationality, and the Serbs reduced to less than a thir d of the total population . Differential rates of population growth, and outmigration from certain regions , continued to alter the population structure after World War II . Croatians, whose number has fallen absolutely, now base their claims to territory on the census of 1961 . Serbs, in order to justify their territorial ambitions, insist that national boundaries within Bosnia be establishe d by settlements, not by districts. Finally, the census of 1991 shows a considerable decline i n the number of Yugoslavs in comparison to the census of 1981, a reflection of the polarizatio n going on in Bosnian society after 1990 . This has rendered the 1991 census suspect by all three national groups, because, somewhat perversely, when the number of Yugoslavs wa s greater, they could be claimed as one's "own," just as the Moslems, at an earlier time, were claimed to be Serbian, or Croatian . 4 Ljubomir Kocevic, Zrtve drugog svetskog rata ( )p. 143 . The Enciklopedij a Jugoslavije, Vol. 2, p. 35, gives the number of Moslems in Bosnia-Hercegovina as follows : 1910 - 606,306 (31 .9%) ; 1921 - 587,316 (31 .1%) ; 1948 - 788,403 (30 .7% ) 5 "Nacionalni sastav stanovnistva, 1991," Jugoslovenski pregled, No 1, 1992, p . 4. 5 The history of Bosnia mirrors that of other parts of Yugoslavia . She has never been an independent state since the middle ages (a point used by the Serbs to throw doubts o n Bosnia's status as a state, although Slovenia did not even enjoy the distinction o f independence in medieval times) . Yet there may be a lesson for Bosnia's present leaders i n the region's medieval past: King Tomislav, the encyclopedia tells us, was recognized by th e Pope, who crowned Tomislav king of Bosnia in 1461 .
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