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Home , Cornsay, Sedgefield, Sedgefield (borough), Shotton Colliery, Urpeth

Sub-county Population in Ref: C1 2016 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Clinical Commissioning Localities and Groups

Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2016 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2017 on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the six Clinical Commissioning Localities (CCLs) and the two Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) they reside in to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website along with set of maps for each area showing population change by age group. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by CCL and CCG area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the CCL/CCG areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2016 and he short term period of 2011 to 2016. Map 1: Clinical Commissioning areas covering County

Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+29,102 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-648 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+8,756 people) along with positive natural change (+393 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2015 and 2016 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,800 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 352 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.5%/2,448 people. 9. Nearly three quarters (73.4%) of the population growth in the county has been in the North Durham CCG which increased by 9.2%, growth was particularly high within the CCL and Durham CCL which grew by 10.1% and 13.2% respectively. 10. All six CCL areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2016 with the largest growth in the Durham CCL (13.2%) area. Growth in has been relatively low in the -le- Street CCL (1.4%), East Durham CCL (1.2%) and the CCL (1.3%) due to low positive net migration (+715, +660 and +836 more people entering the area than moving out of the area). The CCL grew by 6.1% due high positive net migration despite having high negative natural change (2,059 more deaths than births). 11. The 0 to 15 age group has fallen in both CCG areas since 2001 with the largest fall in the Durham Dales, Easington and Sedgefield (DDES) CCG of 8.8%. The North Durham CCG fell by 1.2% over the same period. 12. However, since 2011 the North Durham CCG has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by nearly 1,100 children, an increase of 2.7%, while the DDES CCG fell slightly by 0.2%. 13. Both CCGs have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011. The North Durham CCG increased by 5.9%/8,777 people while across DDES CCG growth was lower at 0.7%/1,233 more people. Within the North Durham CCG the largest growth was in the Durham CCL with an increase of 10.0% (6,079 more people) while this group fell by 3.7% (1,312 fewer people) in the Chester-le-Street CCL. 14. Since 2011 growth in the working age group in the North Durham CCG has slowed showing only a 0.2% increase in the last five years with this group decreasing by 2.6% in the DDES CGG over the same period. Within the localities only the Durham CCL saw any growth in this group with an extra 2.9%/1,851 people. 15. All six localities have seen large increases, of between 13.0% (East Durham CCL 13.2%) and 41% (Chester-le-Street CCL 40.9%, Durham CCL 40.7%) in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest proportional increase has been in the North Durham CCG and its localities with an increase of 35.2% overall compared to 23.9% in the DDES CCG. 16. Growth in the 65+ age group since 2011 across both CCGs has been fairly even with growth of 14.4%/6,095 people in the North Durham CCG and 12.5%/6,309 people in the DDES CCG. A similar pattern is seen in the CCLs except for the East Durham CCL which only had growth of 7.8% in this period. 17. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with increases of 41.7% in the North Durham CCG and 41.6% in the DDES CCG. Across the localities growth ranges from 30.7% increase in the Durham Dales CCL up to 61.9% increase in the Sedgefield CCL.

Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area Age group: Overall 18. Both CCG areas and their under lying CCL areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. Unlike other sub-county geographies mentioned above, the county’s population is more evenly distributed across the CCLs with five areas having a population within the range 88,000 to 99,000, except for the Chester-le- Street CCL which has a population of just over 54,400. Figure 1a: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities. 115% Durham CCL

Derwentside CCL 110% North Durham CCG

105% County Durham

Chester-le-Street CCL

100% 2001 Base % chnage % 2001 from base

95%

2015 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2001 Figure 1b: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities. 115%

Durham Dales CCL 110% County Durham

DDES CCG 105% Sedgefield CCL

East Durham CCL 100% % chnage % 2001 from base 2001 Base

95%

2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 19. The majority of growth has been in the North Durham CCG area with an increase of 9.2%/20,902 people while the population in the DDES CCG grew by 2.8%/7,552 people. 20. Since 2011 there has been continued growth, however, while the North Durham CCG’s population grew by 3.1%/7,433 people there was only growth of 0.6%/1.716 people in the DDES CCG. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 North Durham CCG 226,647 240,116 247,549 20,902 7,433 9.2% 3.1% Derwentside CCL 85,170 91,720 93,791 8,621 2,071 10.1% 2.3% Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,116 54,411 732 295 1.4% 0.5% Durham CCL 87,798 94,280 99,347 11,549 5,067 13.2% 5.4% DDES CCG 267,042 272,878 274,594 7,552 1,716 2.8% 0.6% Durham Dales CCL 85,821 90,017 91,078 5,257 1,061 6.1% 1.2% East Durham CCL 93,990 95,111 95,129 1,139 18 1.2% 0.0% Sedgefield CCL 87,231 87,750 88,387 1,156 637 1.3% 0.7% County Durham 493,689 512,994 522,143 28,454 9,149 5.8% 1.8% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,636,800 96,700 40,400 3.8% 1.6% & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,381,200 6,021,200 2,210,300 11.5% 3.9% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

21. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in population of 13.2%/11,549 people with the Derwentside CCL a close second with population growth of 10.1%/8,621 people. The Chester-le-Street CCL has shown relatively little growth with only 1.4%/732 people since 2001. 22. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 5.4%/5,067 people in the Durham CCL, growth of 2.3%/2,071 people in the Derwentside CCL and growth in the Chester-le- Street CCL only 0.5%/295 people. 23. Within the DDES CCG the Durham Dales CCL had the largest increase in population of 6.1% (5,257 people) with the East Durham CCL and the Sedgefield CCL having shown relatively little growth with only 1.2%/1,139 people and 1.3%/1,156 people respectively since 2001. 24. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 1.2%/1,061 people in the Durham Dales CCL, almost no growth in the East Durham CCL and growth of 0.7%/637 people in the Sedgefield CCL. Age group: 0 to 15 25. There has been a fall in the 0 to 15 population in both CCG areas since 2001 with the largest fall of 8.8%/4,679 children in the DDES CCG. The North Durham CCG saw a fall of 1.2%/482 children over the same period. 26. This lower level of decline in the North Durham CCG is due to growth in the Derwentside and the Durham CCL’s of 1.8% and 3.8% respectively, compensating for the large fall in the Chester-le- Street CCL of 13.1%/1,354 children.

Figure 2a: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

105% Derwentside CCL

100% 2001 Base

Durham CCL 95% North Durham CCG

90% County Durham % chnage % 2001 from base

Chester-le-Street CCL

85%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 Figure 2b: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

105% 2001 Base

County Durham 100% Durham Dales CCL

DDES CCG 95% Sedgefield CCL

90% East Durham CCL % chnage % 2001 from base

85%

2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 27. All CCL areas except Derwentside CCL and the Durham CCL have seen a decline in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, with the largest falls in the Chester-le-Street CCL (fall of 13.1%/1,354 children) and the East Durham CCL (fall of 11.0%/2,133 children) 28. However this decline has seen a slight reversal between 2011 and 2016 in the North Durham CCG, which increased by 2.7%/1,072 children, again due to growth in the Derwentside CCL and the Durham CCL. The data suggests that over this period that there has been relativity little decline in this age group in the three DDES CCG localities. 29. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.1% of the county total population. All six CCL areas have seen falls of between 1.1 and 2.7 percentage points in this age group since 2001. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 North Durham CCG 41,007 39,453 40,525 -482 1,072 -1.2% 2.7% 18.1% 16.4% Derwentside CCL 16,383 16,373 17,001 618 628 3.8% 3.8% 19.2% 18.1% Chester-le-Street CCL 10,332 9,288 8,978 -1,354 -310 -13.1% -3.3% 19.2% 16.5% Durham CCL 14,292 13,792 14,546 254 754 1.8% 5.5% 16.3% 14.6% DDES CCG 53,304 48,707 48,625 -4,679 -82 -8.8% -0.2% 20.0% 17.7% Durham Dales CCL 16,353 15,462 15,426 -927 -36 -5.7% -0.2% 19.1% 16.9% East Durham CCL 19,455 17,332 17,322 -2,133 -10 -11.0% -0.1% 20.7% 18.2% Sedgefield CCL 17,496 15,913 15,877 -1,619 -36 -9.3% -0.2% 20.1% 18.0% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,150 -5,161 990 -5.5% 1.1% 19.1% 17.1% North East 500,900 462,200 467,795 -33,105 5,595 -6.6% 1.2% 19.7% 17.7% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,086,179 590,979 500,179 5.6% 4.7% 20.0% 19.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 16 to 64 30. Since 2001 both CCG areas have seen their working age populations (aged 16 to 64) grow. The North Durham CCG grew by 5.9%/8,777 people over this period while growth in the DDES CCG was low at 0.7%/1,233 people. Figure 3a: % change in the 16 to 64 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities. 110% Durham CCL

Derwentside CCL

105% North Durham CCG

County Durham

100% 2001 Base % chnage % 2001 from base Chester-le-Street CCL

95%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001

Figure 3b: % change in the 16 to 64 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities. 110% County Durham

Durham Dales CCL 105% East Durham CCL

DDES CCG

100% 2001 Base

% chnage % 2001 from base Sedgefield CCL

95%

2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 31. However, since 2011 there has been little growth in the North Durham CCG (growth of 0.2%/266 people) while this population has fallen in the DDES CCG (a fall of 2.6%/4,511 people). 32. Within the CCG areas the Chester-le-Street CCL and the Sedgefield CCL both saw their working age population fall between 2001 and 2016, falls of 3.7%/1,312 people and 2.3%/1,255 people respectively while this age group grew by 10.0%/6,079 people in the Durham CCL and is in part due to the expansion of Durham University before the 2011 Census. 33. Between 2011 and 2016 the only population growth in this age group was in the Durham CCL which increased by 2.9%/1,851 people. The other five areas had falls of between 1.3% and 3.0% during this period. 34. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.7% with a similar pattern seen across the clinical commissioning areas. 35. However, even though the portion of this age group has fallen in the East Durham area since 2008, it is the only area, overall to see an increase in this age group since 2001, an increase of 0.5%, which in part maybe due to the general lack of population change in this area over the last five years. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 working age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 North Durham CCG 149,790 158,301 158,567 8,777 266 5.9% 0.2% 66.1% 64.1% Derwentside CCL 54,039 58,824 58,049 4,010 -775 7.4% -1.3% 63.4% 61.9% Chester-le-Street CCL 35,046 34,544 33,734 -1,312 -810 -3.7% -2.3% 65.3% 62.0% Durham CCL 60,705 64,933 66,784 6,079 1,851 10.0% 2.9% 69.1% 67.2% DDES CCG 167,775 173,519 169,008 1,233 -4,511 0.7% -2.6% 62.8% 61.5% Durham Dales CCL 53,916 56,957 55,250 1,334 -1,707 2.5% -3.0% 62.8% 60.7% East Durham CCL 58,500 60,943 59,654 1,154 -1,289 2.0% -2.1% 62.2% 62.7% Sedgefield CCL 55,359 55,619 54,104 -1,255 -1,515 -2.3% -2.7% 63.5% 61.2% County Durham 317,565 331,820 327,575 10,010 -4,245 3.2% -1.3% 64.3% 62.7% North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,661,447 41,447 -20,253 2.6% -1.2% 63.8% 63.0% England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,777,560 3,254,360 488,660 9.7% 1.3% 64.0% 63.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 65+ 36. As with the county and other areas across the country both CCG areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with growth of 35.2%/12,607 people in the North Durham CCG and 23.9%/10,998 people in the DDES CCG. Figure 4a: % change in the 65+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

145% 140% Chester-le-Street CCL 135% Durham CCL 130% 125% North Durham CCG 120% County Durham 115% 110% Derwentside CCL % chnage % 2001 from base 105% 100% 2001 Base

95%

2015 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2001

Figure 4b: % change in the 65+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

145% 140%

135% Durham Dales CCL 130% County Durham 125% 120% Sedgefield CCL 115% DDES CCG 110%

% chnage % 2001 from base East Durham CCL 105% 100% 2001 Base

95%

2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 37. Since 2001 within the North Durham CCG the Chester-le-Street CCL and the Durham CCL experienced the largest increases in this age group of 40.9%/3,398 people and 40.7%/5,216 people respectively. However, within the East Durham CCL this age group has shown a relatively small change (increase of 13.2%) and follows the pattern of slower population growth in this area since 2001. 38. This pattern of increase has continued across all areas since 2011 with an increase of 14.4% in the North Durham CCG and 12.5% in the DDES CCG. Within the CCLs growth since 2011 has been in the range of 13.5% and 15.8% except for the East Durham CCL which grew more slowly with an increase of 7.8%. 39. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.2% of the county total population. Both the North Durham CCG and the DDES CCG had percentage point increases in this age group of 3.8 and 3.5 respectively increasing to 19.6% and 20.7% of each areas’ total population. 40. The proportion of this age group in the Chester-le-Street CCL increased by 6 percentage points between 2001 and 2016 rising to 21.5% of the areas’ total population and was the largest proportional increase across all six CCL areas. As mentioned above the slower growth in the East Durham CCL has resulted in a proportional increase of only 2 percentage points since 2001 increasing to 19.1% of the areas total population in 2016. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 North Durham CCG 35,850 42,362 48,457 12,607 6,095 35.2% 14.4% 15.8% 19.6% Derwentside CCL 14,748 16,523 18,741 3,993 2,218 27.1% 13.4% 17.3% 20.0% Chester-le-Street CCL 8,301 10,284 11,699 3,398 1,415 40.9% 13.8% 15.5% 21.5% Durham CCL 12,801 15,555 18,017 5,216 2,462 40.7% 15.8% 14.6% 18.1% DDES CCG 45,963 50,652 56,961 10,998 6,309 23.9% 12.5% 17.2% 20.7% Durham Dales CCL 15,552 17,598 20,402 4,850 2,804 31.2% 15.9% 18.1% 22.4% East Durham CCL 16,035 16,836 18,153 2,118 1,317 13.2% 7.8% 17.1% 19.1% Sedgefield CCL 14,376 16,218 18,406 4,030 2,188 28.0% 13.5% 16.5% 20.8% County Durham 81,813 91,108 105,418 23,605 14,310 28.9% 15.7% 16.6% 20.2% North East 419,200 452,600 507,606 88,406 55,006 21.1% 12.2% 16.5% 19.3% England & Wales 8,341,600 9,296,100 10,517,478 2,175,878 1,221,378 26.1% 13.1% 15.9% 18.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 85+ 41. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic but are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. Both CCG areas have had increases of over 40% since 2001 in this age group (North Durham CCG 41.7%/1,649 people; DDES CCG 41.6%/1,921 people). 42. This growth is also evident from 2011, although in the DDES CCG the growth has slowed a little. Growth since 2011 was 12.4%/617 people in the North Durham CCG and in the DDES CCG growth was 9.2%/553 people. Figure 5a: % change in the 85+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

165% Durham CCL 155% North Durham CCG 145% County Durham 135%

125% Chester-le-Street CCL

115% Derwentside CCL

105% % chnage % 2001 from base 2001 Base 95%

85%

2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001

Figure 5b: % change in the 85+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

165% Sedgefield CCL 155% DDES CCG 145%

135% County Durham

125% East Durham CCL

115%

Durham Dales CCL % chnage % 2001 from base 105% 2001 Base

95%

2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 43. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in this age group of 53.2%/732 people since 2001 and in the DDES CCG the Sedgefield CCL increased by 61.9%/801 people. The remaining CCLs had increases of between 30.7% and 40.0% over this period. 44. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population. All clinical commissioning areas have seen increases of between 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 0.7% seen in DDES CCG and of 0.9% in the Sedgefield CCL in this CCG area, increasing the proportion of this age group in this CCG to 2.4% in 2016. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 North Durham CCG 3,957 4,989 5,606 1,649 617 41.7% 12.4% 1.7% 2.3% Derwentside CCL 1,683 2,152 2,241 558 89 33.2% 4.1% 2.0% 2.4% Chester-le-Street CCL 897 1,058 1,256 359 198 40.0% 18.7% 1.7% 2.3% Durham CCL 1,377 1,779 2,109 732 330 53.2% 18.5% 1.6% 2.1% DDES CCG 4,617 5,985 6,538 1,921 553 41.6% 9.2% 1.7% 2.4% Durham Dales CCL 1,830 2,254 2,391 561 137 30.7% 6.1% 2.1% 2.6% East Durham CCL 1,494 1,831 2,053 559 222 37.4% 12.1% 1.6% 2.2% Sedgefield CCL 1,293 1,900 2,094 801 194 61.9% 10.2% 1.5% 2.4% County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,144 3,570 1,170 41.6% 10.7% 1.7% 2.3% North East 43,000 56,300 62,594 19,594 6,294 45.6% 11.2% 1.7% 2.4% England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,408,727 391,227 140,127 38.4% 11.0% 1.9% 2.4% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area 45. All clinical commissioning areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county. 46. North Durham CCG: . Since 2001 there has been high population growth in this area of 9.2%/20,902 additional people and has mainly been driven by high positive net migration of 20,290 extra people and low natural change (births minus deaths) of 612 people, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Growth of 1.4%/732 people with positive net migration of 715 people and a small positive natural change of 17, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 10.1%/8,621 people with positive net migration of 8,377 people and a small positive natural change of 244, o Durham CCL: Growth of 13.2%/11,549 people with positive net migration of 11,549 people and a small positive natural change of 351, . Since 2011 this trend has continued with slightly higher positive natural change of 659 people. Positive net migration was high at 6,774 more people contributing to the 3.1%/7,433 growth in population since 2011, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Growth of 0.5%/295 people with positive net migration of 347 people and a small negative natural change of 52, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 2.3%/2,071 people with positive net migration of 1,595 people and positive natural change of 476, o Durham CCL: Growth of 5.4%/5,067 people with positive net migration of 4,832 people and a small positive natural change of 235, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 1,805 people, all of which came through positive net migration as there was a small negative natural change in this year of 16 more deaths than births, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Reduction in population of -0.1%/-40 people with positive net migration of only 7 people and negative natural change of 47 more deaths than births, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 0.5%/491 people with positive net migration of 489 people and positive natural change of 2, o Durham CCL: Growth of 1.4%/1,354 people with positive net migration of 1,325 people and a small positive natural change of 29. 47. DDES CCG: . Since 2001 there has been lower population growth in this area of 2.8%/7,552 additional people and has been driven by high positive net migration of 8,812 extra people as there was negative natural change with 1,260 more deaths than births, o Durham Dales CCL: Growth of 6.1%/5,257 people with positive net migration of 7,316 people and there was negative natural change with 2,059 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: Growth of 1.2%/1,139 people with positive net migration of 660 people and positive natural change of 479, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 1.3%/1,156 people with positive net migration of 836 people and positive natural change of 320,

. Since 2011 this trend has continued with negative natural change with 266 more deaths than births. Positive net migration was high at 1,982 more people contributing to the 0.6%/1,716 growth in population since 2011, o Durham Dales CCL: Growth of 1.2%/1,061 people with positive net migration of 1,754 people and negative natural change with 693 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: Growth of only 18 people with negative net migration of -458 people and positive natural change of 476 more births than deaths, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 0.7%/637 people with positive net migration of 686 people and negative natural change with 49 more deaths than births, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 0.2%/643 people, all of which came through positive net migration of 979 people as there was a negative natural change in this year of 336 more deaths than births, o Durham Dales CCL: Growth of 0.3%/256 people with positive net migration of 513 people and negative natural change with 257 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: Growth of only 39 people with positive net migration of 29 people and positive natural change of 10 more births than deaths, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 0.4%/348 people with positive net migration of 437 people and negative natural change with 89 more deaths than births. 48. The following charts and tables provide more detail. Figure 6a: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2016 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Durham Dales CCL Sedgefield CCL Migration East Durham CCL

Chester-le-Street CCL

0

5,000

10,000 20,000 30,000

-5,000

25,000 35,000 15,000 Figure 6b: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2016 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Durham Dales CCL Sedgefield CCL Migration Chester-le-Street CCL

East Durham CCL

0

0

4,000 2,000 6,000 8,000

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

-2,000 10,000 10,000

Figure 6c: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2015 to 2016 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Sedgefield CCL Migration Durham Dales CCL East Durham CCL

Chester-le-Street CCL

0

500

500

-500

-500

1,500 2,500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 -1,000 Table 6a: Components of population change 2001 to 2016 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs) Population change 2001 to 2016 Net % Population 2001 2016 Births Deaths Natural Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 226,647 247,549 9.2% 38,390 37,778 612 20,290 20,902 Derwentside CCL 85,170 93,791 10.1% 16,218 15,974 244 8,377 8,621 Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,411 1.4% 8,707 8,690 17 715 732 Durham CCL 87,798 99,347 13.2% 13,465 13,114 351 11,198 11,549 DDES CCG 267,042 274,594 2.8% 47,728 48,988 -1,260 8,812 7,552 Durham Dales CCL 85,821 91,078 6.1% 14,426 16,485 -2,059 7,316 5,257 East Durham CCL 93,990 95,129 1.2% 17,541 17,062 479 660 1,139 Sedgefield CCL 87,231 88,387 1.3% 15,761 15,441 320 836 1,156 County Durham 493,689 522,143 5.8% 86,118 86,766 -648 29,102 28,454 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2016.

Table 6b: Components of population change 2011 to 2016 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs) Population change 2011 to 2016 Net % Population 2011 2016 Births Deaths Natural Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 240,116 247,549 3.1% 14,999 14,340 659 6,774 7,433 Derwentside CCL 91,720 93,791 2.3% 6,496 6,020 476 1,595 2,071 Chester-le-Street CCL 54,116 54,411 0.5% 3,158 3,210 -52 347 295 Durham CCL 94,280 99,347 5.4% 5,345 5,110 235 4,832 5,067 DDES CCG 272,878 274,594 0.6% 17,971 18,237 -266 1,982 1,716 Durham Dales CCL 90,017 91,078 1.2% 5,340 6,033 -693 1,754 1,061 East Durham CCL 95,111 95,129 0.0% 6,839 6,363 476 -458 18 Sedgefield CCL 87,750 88,387 0.7% 5,792 5,841 -49 686 637 County Durham 512,994 522,143 1.8% 32,970 32,577 393 8,756 9,149 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2016.

Table 6c: Components of population change 2015 to 2016 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs)

Population change 2015 to 2016 Net % Population 2015 2016 Births Deaths Natural Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 245,744 247,549 0.7% 2,452 2,468 -16 1,821 1,805 Derwentside CCL 93,300 93,791 0.5% 1,026 1,024 2 489 491 Chester-le-Street CCL 54,451 54,411 -0.1% 507 554 -47 7 -40 Durham CCL 97,993 99,347 1.4% 919 890 29 1,325 1,354 DDES CCG 273,951 274,594 0.2% 2,868 3,204 -336 979 643 Durham Dales CCL 90,822 91,078 0.3% 821 1,078 -257 513 256 East Durham CCL 95,090 95,129 0.0% 1,118 1,108 10 29 39 Sedgefield CCL 88,039 88,387 0.4% 929 1,018 -89 437 348 County Durham 519,695 522,143 0.5% 5,320 5,672 -352 2,800 2,448 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2016.

How does this topic link to our strategies and plans? The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County Durham Partnership website. Other links: Population and Deprivation Sub-county profiles Author: Research and Equalities Team Approver: Research and Equalities Team Published: November 2017 Review: November 2018 Data sources: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates

Appendix 1

Table 1: Population change by clinical commissioning area - 2001 to 2016

Number (% change from 2001) North Derwentside Chester-le-Street Durham Dales East Durham Sedgefield County Durham CCL DDES CCG Durham CCG CCL CCL CCL CCL CCL Durham

2001 226,647 85,170 53,679 87,798 267,042 85,821 93,990 87,231 493,689 2002 226,878 (0.1) 85,571 (0.5) 53,875 (0.4) 87,432 (-0.4) 266,660 (-0.1) 85,939 (0.1) 93,466 (-0.6) 87,255 (0.0) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 226,796 (0.1) 86,201 (1.2) 53,694 (0.0) 86,901 (-1.0) 267,135 (0.0) 86,289 (0.5) 93,184 (-0.9) 87,662 (0.5) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 226,903 (0.1) 86,750 (1.9) 53,677 (0.0) 86,476 (-1.5) 268,244 (0.5) 86,806 (1.1) 93,145 (-0.9) 88,293 (1.2) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 227,736 (0.5) 87,316 (2.5) 53,623 (-0.1) 86,797 (-1.1) 269,482 (0.9) 87,420 (1.9) 93,567 (-0.5) 88,495 (1.4) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 229,611 (1.3) 87,702 (3.0) 53,833 (0.3) 88,076 (0.3) 269,737 (1.0) 87,694 (2.2) 93,785 (-0.2) 88,258 (1.2) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 232,107 (2.4) 88,700 (4.1) 53,811 (0.2) 89,596 (2.0) 270,853 (1.4) 88,383 (3.0) 94,235 (0.3) 88,235 (1.2) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 233,895 (3.2) 89,620 (5.2) 53,715 (0.1) 90,560 (3.1) 271,722 (1.8) 88,977 (3.7) 94,755 (0.8) 87,990 (0.9) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 235,001 (3.7) 90,101 (5.8) 53,993 (0.6) 90,907 (3.5) 272,310 (2.0) 89,374 (4.1) 95,117 (1.2) 87,819 (0.7) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 238,030 (5.0) 90,920 (6.8) 54,015 (0.6) 93,095 (6.0) 272,598 (2.1) 89,852 (4.7) 95,054 (1.1) 87,692 (0.5) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 240,116 (5.9) 91,720 (7.7) 54,116 (0.8) 94,280 (7.4) 272,878 (2.2) 90,017 (4.9) 95,111 (1.2) 87,750 (0.6) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 241,305 (6.5) 92,043 (8.1) 54,308 (1.2) 94,954 (8.2) 273,043 (2.2) 90,068 (4.9) 95,123 (1.2) 87,852 (0.7) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 243,054 (7.2) 92,146 (8.2) 54,228 (1.0) 96,680 (10.1) 272,903 (2.2) 90,213 (5.1) 95,153 (1.2) 87,537 (0.4) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 244,361 (7.8) 92,690 (8.8) 54,434 (1.4) 97,237 (10.8) 273,412 (2.4) 90,623 (5.6) 95,075 (1.2) 87,714 (0.6) 517,773 (4.9) 2015 245,744 (8.4) 93,300 (9.5) 54,451 (1.4) 97,993 (11.6) 273,951 (2.6) 90,822 (5.8) 95,090 (1.2) 88,039 (0.9) 519,695 (5.3) 2016 247,549 (9.2) 93,791 (10.1) 54,411 (1.4) 99,347 (13.2) 274,594 (2.8) 91,078 (6.1) 95,129 (1.2) 88,387 (1.3) 522,143 (5.8) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Appendix 2 Long Term (2001 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2016. 2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 47 had positive net migration. 3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,411 additional people between 2001 and 2016, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 215 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,196. 4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 33.2%, (an increase of 3,361 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,255 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 894 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 858 people and the Acre Rigg & Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 748 people during this period, falls of 12.7% and 9.3% respectively. 6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (200 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (658 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,196 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 448 to its population. 7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2016 with 894 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,255 out of all 66 MSOAs. 8. The area of Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 786 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2016 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City St Helens Auckland and Murton South and Delves and Leadgate South Leadgate North and East Consett West and Castleside North and Seaton Byers Green and Craghead and South Stanley Gilesgate Moor and Pity Me Cassop and Crook South and Willington North Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Shotton Colliery and South Church and Wingate Stanley North and Kip Hill Bowburn and and Sedgefield and and Waldridge Medomsley and Shotley Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Brasside and Newton Hall Sherburn and and Net Natural Brandon Change Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Stanhope and Migration Newton Aycliffe Central Chester-le-Street North Dipton North and Tantobie Annfield Plain South and South Moor Thornley Deaf Hill and Lanchester Midridge and Woodham Village and Seaham Harbour Coundon and Willington South Chilton and Station Hamsterley and Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Pelton and Grange Villa and Middleton-in- and Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Chester-le-Street South Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South and Trimdons Langley Park and Newton Aycliffe East Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Spennymoor North and Tudhoe South and Eden Hill Belmont and Carville Beamish Ouston and and Ferryhill Cockton Hill and Dene Easington Colliery North Passfield and Shotton Blackhalls Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

Horden

0

500

-500

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

1,500 2,500 3,500

-2,000 -1,000 -1,500

Medium Term (2011 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 9. At a more local level, two thirds (44) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2016. 10. Half of MSOAs (33) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration. 11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,538 additional people between 2011 and 2016, an increase of 15.1% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 54 and high positive migration into the area of 1,484 more people moving into the area than leaving. 12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 10.7%, (an increase of 1,304 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 1,607 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 303 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 487 people and Newton Aycliffe Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 179 people during this period, falls of 7.6% and 3.0% respectively. 14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (97 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (219 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Newton Aycliffe Central it was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (443 more people moving out of the area than in) as natural change added an additional 264 to its population during this period. 15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population from 2001, showed relatively little change between 2011 and 2016 with a fall in population of 72, due to positive natural change of 154 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 226 more people moving out of the area than in. 16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2016 with 349 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 330. 17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 1,607 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 443 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2016 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City Consett West and Castleside Bowburn and Shincliffe Byers Green and Spennymoor Gilesgate Moor Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Bank Shotton Colliery Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Craghead and South Stanley Coundon and Willington South Cassop and Coxhoe Brasside and Newton Hall Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Chilton and Ferryhill Station Delves and Leadgate South Murton South and South Hetton Sacriston and Waldridge Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Pelton and Grange Villa Lanchester Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Annfield Plain South and South Moor Crook South and Willington North Medomsley and Shotley Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Stanley North and Kip Hill Bishop Auckland and South Church Sherburn and West Rainton Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Net Hamsterley and Staindrop Natural Seaham North and Seaton Midridge and Woodham Village Change Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Migration Newton Aycliffe East Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Brandon Stanhope and Wolsingham Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Leadgate North and Consett East Hutton Henry and Wingate Barnard Castle and Startforth Blackhalls Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Chester-le-Street South Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Chester-le-Street North Belmont and Carville Cornforth and Ferryhill Shildon Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Bournmoor and Great Lumley Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Passfield and Shotton Fishburn and Trimdons Easington Colliery North Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Newton Aycliffe Central

Horden

0

0

500

500

-500

-500

1,000 1,500 2,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 -1,000