Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2016 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Clinical Commissioning Localities and Groups Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2016 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2017 on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the six Clinical Commissioning Localities (CCLs) and the two Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) they reside in to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website along with set of maps for each area showing population change by age group. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by CCL and CCG area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the CCL/CCG areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2016 and he short term period of 2011 to 2016. Map 1: Clinical Commissioning areas covering County Durham County Council Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+29,102 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-648 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+8,756 people) along with positive natural change (+393 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2015 and 2016 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,800 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 352 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.5%/2,448 people. 9. Nearly three quarters (73.4%) of the population growth in the county has been in the North Durham CCG which increased by 9.2%, growth was particularly high within the Derwentside CCL and Durham CCL which grew by 10.1% and 13.2% respectively. 10. All six CCL areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2016 with the largest growth in the Durham CCL (13.2%) area. Growth in has been relatively low in the Chester-le- Street CCL (1.4%), East Durham CCL (1.2%) and the Sedgefield CCL (1.3%) due to low positive net migration (+715, +660 and +836 more people entering the area than moving out of the area). The Durham Dales CCL grew by 6.1% due high positive net migration despite having high negative natural change (2,059 more deaths than births). 11. The 0 to 15 age group has fallen in both CCG areas since 2001 with the largest fall in the Durham Dales, Easington and Sedgefield (DDES) CCG of 8.8%. The North Durham CCG fell by 1.2% over the same period. 12. However, since 2011 the North Durham CCG has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by nearly 1,100 children, an increase of 2.7%, while the DDES CCG fell slightly by 0.2%. 13. Both CCGs have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011. The North Durham CCG increased by 5.9%/8,777 people while across DDES CCG growth was lower at 0.7%/1,233 more people. Within the North Durham CCG the largest growth was in the Durham CCL with an increase of 10.0% (6,079 more people) while this group fell by 3.7% (1,312 fewer people) in the Chester-le-Street CCL. 14. Since 2011 growth in the working age group in the North Durham CCG has slowed showing only a 0.2% increase in the last five years with this group decreasing by 2.6% in the DDES CGG over the same period. Within the localities only the Durham CCL saw any growth in this group with an extra 2.9%/1,851 people. 15. All six localities have seen large increases, of between 13.0% (East Durham CCL 13.2%) and 41% (Chester-le-Street CCL 40.9%, Durham CCL 40.7%) in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest proportional increase has been in the North Durham CCG and its localities with an increase of 35.2% overall compared to 23.9% in the DDES CCG. 16. Growth in the 65+ age group since 2011 across both CCGs has been fairly even with growth of 14.4%/6,095 people in the North Durham CCG and 12.5%/6,309 people in the DDES CCG. A similar pattern is seen in the CCLs except for the East Durham CCL which only had growth of 7.8% in this period. 17. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with increases of 41.7% in the North Durham CCG and 41.6% in the DDES CCG. Across the localities growth ranges from 30.7% increase in the Durham Dales CCL up to 61.9% increase in the Sedgefield CCL. Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area Age group: Overall 18. Both CCG areas and their under lying CCL areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. Unlike other sub-county geographies mentioned above, the county’s population is more evenly distributed across the CCLs with five areas having a population within the range 88,000 to 99,000, except for the Chester-le- Street CCL which has a population of just over 54,400. Figure 1a: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities. 115% Durham CCL Derwentside CCL 110% North Durham CCG 105% County Durham Chester-le-Street CCL 100% 2001 Base % chnage% 2001 from base 95% 2015 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2001 Figure 1b: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities. 115% Durham Dales CCL 110% County Durham DDES CCG 105% Sedgefield CCL East Durham CCL 100% % chnage% 2001 from base 2001 Base 95% 2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 19. The majority of growth has been in the North Durham CCG area with an increase of 9.2%/20,902 people while the population in the DDES CCG grew by 2.8%/7,552 people. 20. Since 2011 there has been continued growth, however, while the North Durham CCG’s population grew by 3.1%/7,433 people there was only growth of 0.6%/1.716 people in the DDES CCG. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2016 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 North Durham CCG 226,647 240,116 247,549 20,902 7,433 9.2% 3.1% Derwentside CCL 85,170 91,720 93,791 8,621 2,071 10.1% 2.3% Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,116 54,411 732 295 1.4% 0.5% Durham CCL 87,798 94,280 99,347 11,549 5,067 13.2% 5.4% DDES CCG 267,042 272,878 274,594 7,552 1,716 2.8% 0.6% Durham Dales CCL 85,821 90,017 91,078 5,257 1,061 6.1% 1.2% East Durham CCL 93,990 95,111 95,129 1,139 18 1.2% 0.0% Sedgefield CCL 87,231 87,750 88,387 1,156 637 1.3% 0.7% County Durham 493,689 512,994 522,143 28,454 9,149 5.8% 1.8% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,636,800 96,700 40,400 3.8% 1.6% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,381,200 6,021,200 2,210,300 11.5% 3.9% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates 21. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in population of 13.2%/11,549 people with the Derwentside CCL a close second with population growth of 10.1%/8,621 people. The Chester-le-Street CCL has shown relatively little growth with only 1.4%/732 people since 2001. 22. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 5.4%/5,067 people in the Durham CCL, growth of 2.3%/2,071 people in the Derwentside CCL and growth in the Chester-le- Street CCL only 0.5%/295 people. 23. Within the DDES CCG the Durham Dales CCL had the largest increase in population of 6.1% (5,257 people) with the East Durham CCL and the Sedgefield CCL having shown relatively little growth with only 1.2%/1,139 people and 1.3%/1,156 people respectively since 2001. 24. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 1.2%/1,061 people in the Durham Dales CCL, almost no growth in the East Durham CCL and growth of 0.7%/637 people in the Sedgefield CCL.