Bangladeshs-Democrac

Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People A SURVEY OF THE BANGLADESHI PEOPLE

The Asia Foundation Improving Lives, Expanding Opportunities Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People

A Survey of the Bangladeshi People

Report Author: Tim Meisburger Program Director: Peter Yates Editors: Hasan Mazumdar Sara L. Taylor Peter Yates Nurul Islam Questionnaire design: Tim Meisburger & Peter Yates Sample design: Survey and Research System, Bangladesh Fieldwork: Survey and Research System, Bangladesh

About The Asia Foundation The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit international development organization committed to improving lives across a dynamic and developing Asia. Informed by six decades of experience and deep local expertise, our programs address critical issues affecting Asia in the 21st century – governance and law, economic development, women’s empowerment, environment, and regional cooperation. In addition, our Books for Asia and professional exchange programs are among the ways we encourage Asia’s continued development as a peaceful, just, and thriving region of the world.

Headquartered in San Francisco, The Asia Foundation works through a network of offices in 18 Asian countries and in Washington, DC. Working with public and private partners, the Foundation receives funding from a diverse group of bilateral and multilateral development agencies, foundations, corporations, and individuals.

For more information, visit www.asiafoundation.org TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ...... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 6 1 CONTEXT OF THE SURVEY ...... 20 2 THE NATIONAL MOOD ...... 21

2.1 DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY - NATIONAL ...... 21 2.2 BIGGEST PROBLEM - NATIONAL ...... 22 2.3 DIRECTION - LOCAL ...... 23 2.4 BIGGEST PROBLEM - LOCAL ...... 24 2.5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 25 3 DEMOCRATIC VALUES ...... 27

3.1 SUPPORT FOR MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY ...... 27 3.2 POLITICAL TOLERANCE...... 28 3.3 FREEDOM OF SPEECH...... 30 3.4 TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS ...... 31 3.5 CIVIC PARTICIPATION...... 32 3.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 34 4 POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT ...... 36

4.1 INTEREST IN POLITICS ...... 36 4.2 POLITICAL ALIENATION ...... 37 4.3 IMPACT OF ELECTIONS ...... 38 4.4 POLITICAL EFFICACY ...... 38 4.5 POLITICAL PARTICIPATION ...... 40 4.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 43 5 POLITICAL PARTIES AND POLITICAL CHOICE ...... 44

5.1 PARTY OR CANDIDATE ...... 44 5.2 MOST IMPORTANT CANDIDATE ATTRIBUTES ...... 44 5.3 MOST IMPORTANT PARTY ATTRIBUTES ...... 45 5.4 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POLITICAL PARTIES ...... 46 5.5 PARTY ALIENATION ...... 47 5.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 48 6 POLITICAL REPRESENTATION ...... 49

6.1 ROLE OF A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT ...... 49 6.2 KNOWLEDGE OF REPRESENTATIVE IN PARLIAMENT ...... 50 6.3 ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CONSTITUENCY ...... 50 6.4 SATISFACTION WITH MP ...... 52 6.5 LOCAL REPRESENTATION ...... 53 6.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 55 7 ELECTION ADMINISTRATION ...... 56

7.1 VOTER REGISTRATION STATUS ...... 56 7.2 KNOWLEDGE OF REGISTRATION AND CORRECTION PROCESSES .. 56 7.3 PERCEPTION OF ECB VOTER EDUCATION ...... 57 7.4 PERCEPTION OF NEUTRALITY OF ECB ...... 58 7.5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 59 8 ATTITUDES TOWARDS ELECTIONS ...... 60

8.1 VOTING PARTICIPATION IN 2014 ...... 60 8.2 INFLUENCE OF OBSERVERS ON PERCEPTION OF ELECTORAL INTEGRITY ...... 62 8.3 PERCEPTIONS OF FAIRNESS OF 2014 ELECTION PROCESS ...... 64 8.4 PROBLEMS IN ELECTIONS ...... 65 8.5 ELECTION SECURITY ...... 66 8.6 PERCEPTION OF BOYCOTT ...... 68 8.7 GIFT GIVING AND VOTE BUYING ...... 68 8.8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 70 9 WOMEN IN ELECTIONS AND POLITICS ...... 71

9.1 GENDER CHOICE FOR PARLIAMENT ...... 71 9.2 REASONS FOR GENDER CHOICE ...... 74 9.3 INDEPENDENCE OF WOMEN’S CHOICE IN VOTING ...... 76 9.4 SUPPORT FOR RESERVED SEATS FOR WOMEN ...... 79 9.5 GENDER PREFERENCE FOR REPRESENTATIVE ...... 80 9.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 81 10 COMMUNICATION AND SOCIAL MEDIA ...... 82

10.1 SOURCES OF INFORMATION ...... 82 10.2 PHONE OWNERSHIP AND ACCESS TO INTERNET ...... 84 10.3 ACCESS TO SOCIAL MEDIA ...... 86 10.4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 88 11 ANNEX A – METHODOLOGY ...... 89

11.1 SURVEY SAMPLE ...... 89 11.2 STEP 1. DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLING POINTS BY DIVISIONAL AND URBAN/RURAL STRATA ...... 90 11.3 STEP 2: SAMPLE HOUSEHOLD SELECTION ...... 90 11.4 STEP 3: SELECTION OF SAMPLE RESPONDENTS BY USING GRID SYSTEM METHOD ...... 91 11.5 QUALITY CONTROL BY SUPERVISORS IN THE FIELD ...... 94 11.6 QUALITY CONTROL WITH RANDOM SPOT CHECKS ...... 94 ANNEX B - QUESTIONNAIRE ...... 95 PREFACE The Asia Foundation is pleased to present Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People. For many years, our surveys have gathered the opinions of Bangladeshi women and men on issues of paramount importance to their country’s social, economic, and political development. This survey, carried out in October and November 2015, captures the diverse range of attitudes towards democracy and its necessary institutions, and compares them with a similar survey carried out in 2006 in Bangladesh, as well as more recent surveys carried out in other Asian countries. The findings reflected in this report highlight the dynamic nature of Bangladesh’s democracy. The significant differences in responses recorded across the country’s eight divisions highlight the diversity of democratic experiences in a country where homogeneity is often assumed. While attitudes towards some institutions have improved, the findings point to a country in democratic flux, where the challenges associated with political polarization are increasing. The acceptance of women’s participation in political processes continues to pose a challenge to an inclusive democracy, while the use of newer technologies to facilitate the availability of open information is only just beginning to expand to all citizens. We are grateful to the donors for the financial assistance that enabled the survey to take place. We would also like to acknowledge the services provided by the Survey and Research System and other local and international experts during the data collection, analysis and reporting phases. We express our gratitude to all the field staff who worked hard to successfully implement the survey, along with the survey respondents who provided us with the information on which this report is based. It is hoped that by providing insight into the current perceptions and attitudes of Bangladeshis today, this survey can support the Government, civil society and international community in strengthening the country’s democratic institutions, culture and practice.

Hasan M. Mazumdar Country Representative Bangladesh EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Findings The National Mood • Bangladeshis are divided on the direction of their country. At the national level 45% believe Bangladesh is headed in the right direction, while 56% believe their local community is headed in the right direction. • Inflation was cited by 43% as the biggest concern at the national level, and combined with other issues, economic concerns were the biggest problem for 55%, while another 18% thought corruption the biggest problem. • At the local level the biggest problems for two-thirds of Bangladeshis were related to infrastructure, especially the poor quality of roads (54%). Democratic Values • Compared to other countries in the region, political tolerance is low in Bangladesh, with a third of respondents unwilling to allow other parties to hold meetings in their area, and almost a fifth saying that if a friend joined another party that would end their friendship. • A third of respondents did not feel free to express their political opinions or were unsure. • Political tolerance and freedom of speech have declined significantly since 2006, suggesting increasing political polarization. • Despite Bangladesh’s well-developed NGO sector, membership in voluntary associations is very low in Bangladesh, creating an unusual strong NGO/weak civil society environment. Polarization decreases societal trust and inhibits the formation of associations. Political Engagement • Interest in politics is low, and decreasing. • Although elections are seen as consequential, just a fifth of the voters believe they personally can have some influence over decision making at the national level. • Women are significantly less engaged in politics than men. Political Parties and Political Choice • Political ideology is not important in Bangladesh. Individual characteristics remain the most important factor in vote choice for 70% of respondents.

Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 7

• More than three-quarters of voters (77%) see no difference, or cannot name any differences, between the political parties in parliament. • For a third of voters, the history of the party is important in making the choice; a reference to historical cleavages going back to the independence war. Political Representation • Most voters understand the role of MPs in Parliament, and 83% of respondents could correctly name their MP, and a significant number (9%) report they have personally contacted an MP for help with a problem. • At the local level, 48% report having contacted the Union Parishad in the last two years • These findings illustrate the importance of personal relationships in Bangladesh is patron/client political system. • Women have significantly less access to the national and local government officials, although access has increased significantly since the 2006 survey. Election Administration • The election commission of Bangladesh has been effective in registering voters and providing voter education. • Half (50%) of respondents think the election commission is sometimes or often biased or not neutral in administering elections, a significant decrease from the 19% who felt this way in 2006. Attitudes Towards Elections • Turnout was very low in the 2014 elections, with just 49% of those eligible casting votes in constituencies where the election was held, compared to 75% turnout in 2001 and 80% in the 2007 elections. • The presence of neutral observers at a polling station increased confidence in the fairness of the process for 68% of respondents. • Less than a third (32%) were confident that the election process in 2014 was free and fair, with 47% saying it was not free and fair. • Concerns about potential problems and elections, including violence, and cheating in the vote counting, increased significantly compared to the 2006 survey. • A fifth (19%) said they were concerned for their own safety during elections. 8 The Asia Foundation

Women in Elections and Politics • Women are less involved in civil society and political parties, and have less contact with political representatives. • A strong majority of Bangladeshis (62%) think Parliament should have only or mostly male representatives, an opinion shared by both men (69%) and women (55%). • Bangladesh is significantly less accepting of women in parliament than in Afghanistan, also surveyed in 2015. • Support for gender equality is highest among the young, and falls consistently with age, suggesting Bangladesh is becoming a more equitable society. Communications and Social Media • Television is by far the most important media through which Bangladeshis learn about what is happening in the country (84%). • A large majority (79%) of Bangladeshis now own mobile phones. Men are more likely (85%) to own phones than women (73%). • Text messaging is rarely used in Bangladesh. • Just 12% have access to the internet from a phone, and only 5% have a computer at home able to access the Internet. • Most people who have access to the Internet use it to access social media, and the most common platform accessed is Facebook. The National Mood Direction of the Country – National: Fewer than half (45%) of respondents believe that Bangladesh is heading in the right direction. Bangladeshis are slightly less optimistic than they were in 2006. Biggest Problem – National: By far the most common problem cited by respondents was the higher cost of essentials (43%), although this is significantly lower than the 70% who cited the same as their greatest national concern in our 2006 survey. Combined with unemployment (12%), economic issues are a priority for a majority (55%) of respondents. Almost a fifth (18%) of respondents cited corruption as the number one problem facing Bangladesh, compared to just 4% in 2006. Direction – Local: Overall, respondents were significantly more positive about the direction of their local area than they were about the national direction, with a majority (56%) saying that their area was headed in right direction, and less than a third (29%) in the wrong direction. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 9

Biggest Problem – Local: By far the most commonly cited problem at the sub- national level is the poor condition of roads, cited by half of respondents (54%). This was also the greatest concern in 2006, when it was cited by a third (31%) as their top concern. Combined with electricity (8%), water and sewerage (5%), and healthcare facilities (1%), infrastructure issues account for two-thirds of the biggest problems identified in their area. Conclusions and Recommendations: At the national level, parties and candidates should ensure their campaigns and platforms include detailed plans and policies for addressing cost of essentials and improving roads. Democratic Values Support for Multi-Party Democracy: Bangladeshis overwhelmingly (90%) understand that to have democracy there must be more than one party competing, but evidently many view the act of boycotting as a form of competition, as 29% say it is sometimes appropriate for parties to boycott an election. Political Tolerance: On the surface political tolerance is extremely low in Bangladesh, with a third (35%) of respondents unwilling to allow other parties to hold meetings in their area. Women are significantly less likely to support other parties holding meetings in their area (39%) than men (46%). Looked at in regional context, Bangladeshis are about as tolerant as respondents in Myanmar, but much less tolerant than Cambodians. Compared to the 2006 survey there was a significant increase (from 10% to 17%) in those saying that if a friend supported a different party it would end their friendship, and a striking change in uncertainty on the issue (from 9% to 41%). The significant increase in explicit intolerance suggests that the very large increase in uncertainty may be related to social desirability bias, with those respondents unwilling to admit to interviewers that a change in a friend’s political preference would end their friendship opting for the not sure response. Taken together, these findings on tolerance indicate increasing political polarization in Bangladesh. Freedom of speech: Although most people (65%) feel free to express their political opinion, a third (35%) do not feel free or are unsure, and there has been a significant decline in perceptions of freedom to express political opinion since 2006. Trust in Institutions: The army (81%) and the RAB (73%) are seen as the institutions with the highest integrity, while the police were perceived by almost 10 The Asia Foundation minorities also rated the political parties (34%) and the election commission (28%) as having low or very low integrity. Civic Participation: Civil society remains extremely weak in Bangladesh, with three-quarters (74%) reporting they belong to no organization or association. Women (76%) are slightly less likely to belong to an association than men (72%). By far the most common organizational affiliation is with a microcredit NGO (17%). Men (45%) were much more likely to have participated in a meeting of their association than women (31%); as were urban respondents (49%) compared to rural respondents (35%). Participation increases steadily with education (29% to 69%) and wealth (23% to 57%). Of those who have participated in association meetings two-thirds (66%) have helped make a decision. Women are less likely to be at a meeting, and when they attend are less likely to make a decision, with 73% of men making decisions compared to 55% of women attendees. Conclusions and Recommendations: Political tolerance is a foundational value of democracy, and both the government (through schools and PSAs) and civil society organizations (though civic education) are encouraged to strengthen their efforts to promote a culture of political tolerance. The low level of membership in associations in Bangladesh is probably primarily related to cultural factors, including the strong cultural constraints on the participation of women in society. Another relevant factor inhibiting the formation and operation of the community-level voluntary associations may be the steadily increasing political polarization of the country, and the subsequent diminishment of societal trust that polarization engenders. Political Engagement Interest in Politics: Women are much less likely to show interest in politics than men, with 28% of men saying they always or often discuss politics, compared to just 14% of women. Almost a third of respondents (31%) say their interest in politics has decreased over the last three years. Political Alienation: Nationally a small majority (56%) believe their representatives care about them. Impact of Elections: Two-thirds (67%) believe voting can make a difference, but a third do not or are unsure (32%). Political Efficacy: Although two-thirds of respondents believe their representatives care about them, just a fifth (21%) think they have much Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 11

over decision-making at the national level. Feelings of political efficacy are relatively low compared to other countries in the region, including Cambodia (31% - 2014) and Afghanistan (53% - 2012). Although feelings of political efficacy are significantly stronger at the local level then national level, just a third believing they have some influence. Political Participation: Men (10%) are still significantly more likely than women (6%) to be a member of a group that has taken a position on a political or community issue, but women’s participation has increased from just one percent in our 2006 survey. In constituencies where there was voting, just 3% report working as a party agent or helping on campaigns, compared to 11% in our 2006 poll. Overall a tenth (11%) of Bangladeshis have taken part in a demonstration on some issue, but there is a significant gender difference with 17% of male respondents reporting participation compared to 6% of women. The most common reasons to participate in demonstrations are political (68%), but education (17%) and the environment (14%) are also often cited. There are some gender differences, with men (73%) more likely than women (53%) to participate in political demonstrations; but with women (21%) almost twice as likely to participate in demonstrations related to the environment as men (12%), and almost three times as likely (11%) to participate in demonstrations on health issues than men (4%). Peoples’ participation in demonstrations was often organized through voice telephony, although personal contact, either with party leaders or friends and family, was equally important. Data-based organizing through SMS, smartphone, social media or internet, while increasingly common in other countries, is yet to have significant influence in Bangladesh. Conclusions and Recommendations: Interest in politics is low, and decreasing, with twice as many people saying their interest has decreased in the last three years than saying it has increased. Elections are viewed as consequential for direction of the country, but voters see little possibility to influence governance beyond elections. Political Parties and Political Choice Party or Candidate: The individual remains the most important factor in vote choice for 70% of respondents, suggesting a lack of ideological differentiation in political parties. This finding is unchanged from 2006. Most Important Candidate Attributes: Personal achievement (44%) is by far the most important factor in candidate choice. Education (14%), family background (10%), and personal achievements (9%) are also important factors. 12 The Asia Foundation

Most Important Party Attributes: A third of voters (32%) still look primarily to the history of the party in making voting choice, a significant increase on the quarter (24%) who mentioned this in 2006, demonstrating the continuing and possibly increasing influence and relevance of the independence war in the political process. Just a quarter (26%) base their choice on the program of the party, and just 12% on the previous accomplishments of the party (compared to 52% in 2006). Differences Between Political Parties: More than three-quarters of voters (77%) see no differences or cannot name any differences between the political parties in Parliament. For those who could name a difference just 8% mention ideology. Findings show no change since the 2006 survey. Party Alienation: Overall a majority of voters (57%) agree their preferred party cares for people like them, but 28% disagree with the statement, and 15% are not sure. Suggesting all parties have work to do to improve their image, a third (33%) of those that expressed an opinion felt the party they support did not care about people like them. Conclusions and Recommendations: Voters still overwhelmingly base their choice on the personal characteristics of political candidates rather than party attributes which is not surprising when more than three-quarters of voters cannot identify any differences between parties. To increase political party relevance reformers and assistance providers should encourage party officials to develop a clear party identity or “brand”. Parties can reduce alienation by building stronger connections with constituents. Political Representation Role of a Member of Parliament: Understanding the role of a representative—and what they can and cannot do—is necessary knowledge if voters are going to effectively evaluate representative performance and promote political accountability. Encouragingly, the survey reveals that most Bangladeshis have some idea of the role that MPs play in Parliament, but a sixth (17%) could not provide any response. This is a significant decrease from the don’t know response from the 2006 survey (36%), suggesting civic education efforts have been effective. Knowledge of Representative in Parliament: Reflecting the important role that MPs play as patrons in their constituencies, 83% of respondents could correctly name their MP. This percentage is very high compared to responses from other countries in the region. Engagement with the Constituency: Although almost all respondents know their representatives name, only half (51%) report their MP visited their area in the Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 13

last year. Again highlighting gender-based differences and cultural constraints on equal access to information, men were 12 percentage points more likely to recall a visit (57%) than women (45%). Reflecting the importance of personal relationships in the patron/client system, contact with an MP is relatively common, with 9% reporting they have contacted an MP for help in solving a problem. Men (11%) were almost twice as likely to contact an MP for help with a problem as women (6%). Again showing the importance of relationships, a fifth (19%) of respondents say the most effective way to reach an MP would be through a personal approach; and all other major responses involve personal connections. Satisfaction with MP: A majority of respondents (56%) are satisfied with the work their MP is doing, but 34% are dissatisfied and 10% are unsure. Satisfaction with representatives is 32 points higher among those who reported that their representative had visited the community in the last year than it is among those who were not aware of a visit. Local Representation: Almost everyone knows the name of their UP Chairman. Those least likely to know were in Dhaka Division, but even there 83% gave a correct response. Highlighting the important personal role the UP plays in local governance, almost half (48%) of respondents had contacted the UP in the last two years. There remains a significant gender gap, with 42% of women saying they have contacted the UP for help, compared to 54% of men. Nevertheless, it is clear that it is much easier for women to approach local rather than national level politicians, with women contacting representatives four-fifths as often as men at the local level, but just half as often for national representatives. Respondents were significantly more likely to have contacted an official in the Union Parishad in 2015 (48%) than they were in 2006 (30%). In a very positive sign, the percentage of women who had contacted the UP more than doubled, from 19% to 42%, closing the (still significant) gender gap between male and female contact to 12 points, compared to 21 points in 2006. Almost three-quarters (74%) are satisfied with their UP representatives. Satisfaction was relatively consistent across the country. Conclusions and Recommendations: Basic understanding of role of national representatives has increased significantly over the last decade, but there remains substantial need for education on this issue in some of the more marginalized sectors of the population. Priority targets for civic education are women (who still have less access to information than men) and the less educated, and priority divisions are Sylhet, Rajshahi, and Chittagong. 14 The Asia Foundation

Women remain significantly less likely to have direct contact with representatives than men. Assuming that less contact correlates with a lower quality of political representation, women remain under represented in the political process. Election Administration Voter Registration Status: Almost everyone believes they are registered to vote. This is by far the highest total we have ever seen in an Asia Foundation survey, although other research suggests there has been an increasing gender gap appearing through the under representation of newly added women during the annual voter list update process (www.womencountbd.org). Knowledge of Registration and Correction Processes: Almost three-quarters (72%) of voters are aware that the election commission has an ongoing voter registration process, but 19% believe they are not, and 9% are unsure. Only half of voters (52%) know what action to take if their voter registration details are incorrect, suggesting that voter education campaigns conducted by the ECB and civil society organizations should include this information. Perception of ECB voter education: Seventy percent of voters are positive about the role ECB plays in providing voter information, and excluding those with no opinion (18%), that percentage rises to 85%; while just 12% said the ECB does not provide useful information. Perception of neutrality of ECB: The ECB faces a significant challenge in strengthening confidence in the neutrality of its administration process, with just a third (36%) of voters believing it is generally neutral and unbiased, and 50% saying it is sometimes or often biased. Confidence in the ECB has deteriorated significantly since 2006, when 19% thought it sometimes or often biased. Conclusions and Recommendations: The Election Commission of Bangladesh (ECB) has clearly done an excellent job with voter registration, and a strong majority of respondents believe the ECB is effective in educating the public about the election process, but regardless of their view of the technical capacity of the ECB, voters are rapidly losing confidence in the neutrality of electoral administration. To rebuild trust and confidence, the ECB, assistance providers, and other stakeholders, should encourage the adoption of regulations and procedures that facilitate openness and transparency in electoral processes, particularly with process for appointing new Election Commissioners due in 2017. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 15

Attitudes Towards Elections Voting Participation in 2014: As a result of the ruling Awami League (AL) government decision to scrap the neutral caretaker government provision during election time (as has been the practice in previous elections), an 18-party alliance led by the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), decided to boycott the elections. Consequently, turnout for the elections was low, and no elections were held at all in the 154 uncontested constituencies (meaning more than half of the 300 constituencies were uncontested), which explains the unusually low (28%) national turnout. If we remove respondents who could not vote because there were no elections in their constituency we get a different picture, but turnout was still at a historic low, with just half (49%) of those eligible and able to vote indicating that they cast a ballot. This is well below the 75% turnout in 2001 and the 80% in 2007. A plurality (41%) of the voters who chose to participate in the 2014 elections report doing so because voting is their democratic right (41%). Other important reasons to vote given by respondents were because it provides a chance to choose their parliamentary representative (35%), and it is a civic duty (7%). Influence of Observers on Perception of Electoral Integrity: When asked if they had seen observers at the polling stations there was significant regional variation, with over 50% of respondents in Barisal, Dhaka and Khulna reporting they saw observers, while voters saw the fewest observers in Rajshahi (18%) and Rangpur (23%). The presence of election observers strengthens the public’s perception of the legitimacy and credibility of an election process, with 68% feeling significantly more confident, and only 10% unsure or feeling no increase in confidence. While the overall percentage of those gaining at least some confidence from the presence of observers (90%) is similar to that recorded for 2007 elections (94%), the impact of the boycott and other political upheavals is indicated in intensity, with 53% saying ‘much more confident’ in 2006, compared to just 25% in 2015. Perceptions of Fairness of 2014 Election Process: The perceptions of bias highlighted in the previous question are echoed in voter’s perception of the relative fairness of the 2014 election, with just a third (32%) confident it was free and fair. Perceptions of fairness have declined precipitously since we asked respondents about the 2001 elections (in our 2006 survey). At that time just 18% said the elections were not free and fair, compared to 47% in the current survey; while those saying the elections were free and fair declined from 66% to 32%. 16 The Asia Foundation

Problems in Elections: Voters in general are most likely to expect violence against party activists or voters (33%), cheating in the vote counting (26%), and pressure from government officials to vote for a particular party (21%). Compared to expectations for the 2007 elections, concerns increased or remained the same in every category except vote-buying, cited by 27% in 2007 compared to 15% in 2015. The largest change in any category was in ‘none of these are possible’, which decreased from 33% in 2007 to 16% in 2015. Urban voters (40%) were significantly more likely to expect violence against activists or voters than rural voters (30%). By division, expectations ranged from a high of 40% in Dhaka, to a low of 15% in Sylhet. Expectations for violence rise steadily with education level (26% to 48%), and wealth (21% to 45%). Concern about pressure from government officials is relatively consistent across the country (from 19% to 27%) except in Khulna, where just 4% expressed concern. Although nationally just 15% are concerned about vote-buying, this number varied widely by division, Khulna (31%) and Rajshahi (44%) being most concerned, and Barisal (1%), Chittagong (3%), Mymensingh (3%) and Sylhet (3%) being least concerned. Interestingly, expectations for vote-buying increased significantly with education level from 13% to 27%. Again, reflecting the general lack of confidence in election administration, a quarter (26%) of voters expressed concern about cheating in the vote counting. Election Security: A fifth of voters (20%) heard of threats or violence in their upazila. The least likely to report hearing about threats of violence were in Khulna (17%), Mymensingh (12%), Rajshahi (8%), Rangpur, and Sylhet (10%), with the other divisions averaging about 25% of voters having heard of threats or violence. Reflecting the high incidence of political violence typical of elections in Bangladesh, a fifth of voters (19%) report being concerned for their own security during elections. While most divisions clustered around the average, there were two clear outliers. In Barisal, more than half (55%) worry about their security during elections, while in Khulna just 8% were worried. Overall findings are similar to those we recorded in our 2006 survey. Perception of Boycott: One-third of voters believe that it is sometimes appropriate for MPs to boycott parliament, but about half (48%) think it is not appropriate, or are not sure (20%). The greatest support for boycott was in Barisa l (45%), Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 17 and the lowest in Khulna (23%). Uncertainty was greatest in Sylhet, where 53% answered “don’t know”. Gift Giving and Vote Buying: The practice of gift giving as a form of political campaigning is common in Bangladesh, with 44% of respondents saying they have heard of the practice in their community. Although gift-giving is perceived as common, just 15% cited it as problem expected in the next election, suggesting that most Bangladeshis don’t view gift-giving as abnormal or a factor affecting the overall integrity of elections. Although almost half the population have heard about gift-giving in their area, only 25% believe that gift-giving has a significant effect on how people vote. Nevertheless, 14% believe that they have a moral obligation to vote for a party or candidate that provides a gift. The most fertile ground for vote-buyers is Khulna, where a third (33%) felt a moral responsibility to vote for the gift-giving party or candidate. Conclusions and Recommendations: Bangladeshis perceive the quality of elections as declining. The government’s decision to end the neutral administration of elections by a caretaker government, and the subsequent decision by some parties to boycott the election, has significantly decreased respondents’ perception of the integrity and credibility of the election process. Violence in elections, which decreased significantly in the 2008 elections, has reemerged as the public’s greatest concern with election processes. Women in Elections and Politics Gender Choice for Parliament: Although the leaders of both major parties in Bangladesh are women, a strong majority of Bangladeshis (62%) think Parliament should have only or mostly male representatives. This attitude is expressed most strongly by men (69%), but is held by a majority of women (55%) as well, including 8% who agree with the extreme view that parliament should be all men. On a slightly more hopeful note, support for gender equality is highest among the young (43% for those less than 25 and falling steadily with age to 27% for those over 50), although still very low by regional standards. Level of education has relatively little effect on support for gender equality.

Bangladesh is significantly less accepting of women in parliament than Afghanistan, also surveyed in 2015. This difference may be related to the massive civic education efforts conducted by the international community in Afghanistan over the last decade, rather than a significantly more tolerant culture. Reasons for Gender Choice: The most commonly given reasons relate to men’s intellectual superiority to women (men know more, more intelligent, understand 18 The Asia Foundation

politics, better educated). Reasons women are unsuited for parliament center on perceived intellectual and character deficiencies, and family obligations. While the “preference for men” responses focused on male superiority, the common theme for respondents with no preference was gender equality rather than female superiority, with a plurality mentioning equal rights. Independence of Women’s Choice in Voting: Although many think women unsuited for political leadership, most (83%) believe women should make their own choice in voting. There is no difference between the responses of men and women on this issue, and a significant increase in tolerance for women’s choice compared to our 2006 findings. The belief that men should advise women increases steadily with age from 11% for those under 25 to 21% for those over 50. Support for women’s choice in voting increases steadily with education from 73% for the least educated, to 95% for graduates and above. Cultural differences are apparent in regional comparisons, with about a fifth of respondents in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar believing men should advise women on voting choice, compared to about a fifteenth (7%) for the Southeast Asian countries recently surveyed on this issue. Support for reserved seats for women: Although a majority believe national government should be mostly for men, a strong majority (71%) support reserved seats for women, double the percentage that supported this position in 2006 (35%). The primary reasons given for supporting reservation of seats for women relates to addressing the perceived deficiencies or weaknesses in the situation of women. Gender Preference for Representative: Reflecting a strong belief that men are more suited for national politics, 40% would prefer a man as their representative in parliament. There is a significant gender difference on this issue with 47% of men preferring a male representative, while for women just 33% prefer a male representative

Conclusions and Recommendations: Women in Bangladesh face severe cultural constraints on equal participation in the political life of the country. While such attitudes would have been common in many countries only 50 years ago, they are increasingly rare in the 21st century, where even countries like Afghanistan are more accepting of women in politics than Bangladesh. While still at a low level, findings do show that there has been a significant increase in acceptance since 2006. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 19

In other developing countries with significant cultural constraints on equal participation of women in the political process (for example Afghanistan and Indonesia), donor-funded civic education campaigns have been successful in facilitating national reflection that resulted in significant changes in attitude and opinion in a relatively short period. Similar programs should be considered in Bangladesh. Communication and Social Media Sources of Information: Television is by far the most important media through which Bangladeshis learn about what is happening in the country (84%). Friends, family, and neighbors are cited as an important information source by 9% (rising to 36% as a second choice), while newspapers are cited by a quarter (25%) as a second choice source of information. Radio is insignificant, except in Khulna, where 24% cited it as their second choice for information. Phone Ownership and Usage: A large majority (79%) of Bangladeshis now own mobile phones, but a fifth (21%) do not. Men (85%) are more likely to own a phone than women (73%), and the youngest (less than 25 years old) are significantly more likely (88%) to own phones than those over 50 (69%). Just 12% have access to the Internet from their phone, while only 5% have a computer at home able to access the internet. Access to Social Media: Most people that have access to the internet use it to access social media (72%), and the most common platform accessed is Facebook. Reasons for using social media are; communicating with friends and family, entertainment, and news.

1 CONTEXT OF THE SURVEY

Bangladesh’s dynamic economic transformation and volatile politics ensures that the country is constantly in flux and rarely static. This survey was conducted in a year where economic growth reached 6.5 per cent, yet for almost three months between January and March 2015 the country was in the grips of political violence, with indiscriminate attacks on individuals and transport, and the accompanying strikes and transport blockades affecting large parts of the country. While the period between April and August 2015 was relatively quiet, data collection for this survey occurred (October to November 2015) during a period which saw a number of high profile attacks on foreigners, the Shia Muslim community and other minority religious groups, most of which were claimed online by the Islamic State. The January 5, 2014, 10th Parliamentary Elections stand as a significant event in understanding the current mood within Bangladesh. Following the controversial elections, which saw the Awami League become the first government to be re-elected consecutively since 1991 (when regular elections and transfers of power were reinstated), a fundamental shift has occurred. With the marginalization of the BNP, the Awami League has managed to consolidate its power across most institutions. With the regular transfer of power not occurring, the Awami League now stands at its most powerful as it enters its eighth year in Government, while the BNP struggles to maintain its organizational strength and political potency. The questionable legitimacy of the 10th Parliamentary Elections were followed by local level elections in 2014 and 2015 (upazila, city corporation and municipal) where high levels of violence and fraud were recorded, further undermining the integral democratic electoral process. The abovementioned political events, coupled with the dynamic growth of the economy are the dominant macro trends affecting the lives of Bangladeshis today, reflected in the survey’s findings found in this publication.

2 THE NATIONAL MOOD

2.1 Direction of the Country - National Generally speaking, do you think things in Bangladesh today are going in the right direction, or going in the wrong direction? (Q21)

50 45 45 40 34 35 30 25 20 17 15 10 4 5 0 Right direction Wrong direction Refused DK

Fewer than half (45%) of respondents believe that Bangladesh is heading in the right direction. Respondents from Sylhet (75%) and Khulna (72%) were most likely to say the country is heading in the right direction, while those in Chittagong (45%) were most likely to say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Responses for this question were similar by gender and age, and across rural and urban areas, with the only other significant difference being that wealthier and more educated respondents were slightly more likely to be pessimistic about the direction of the country. 22 The Asia Foundation

Right Direction Responses in the Region

70 62 60 49 50 45 37 40 32 30 20 10 0 Bangladesh Bangladesh Afghanistan Cambodia Myanmar 2015 2006 2015 2014 2014 Bangladeshis are more optimistic about their country’s direction than their counterparts in most other countries in the region recently surveyed by the Foundation, but slightly less optimistic than they were in 2006.

2.2 Biggest Problem - National In your view, what is the biggest problem facing Bangladesh at the national level? (Q22)

Price hike of essentials 43 14

Corruption 18 19

Law and order 10 17

Unemployment 12 23

Electricity 6 10

Political instability & intolerance 8 12

Others 2 2

Refused 11

0 20 40 60

First Choice Second Choice Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 23

By far, the most common problem cited by respondents was the higher cost of essentials (43%), although this is significantly lower than the 70% who cited the same as their greatest national concern in our 2006 survey. Women were slightly more likely to identify this as the greatest problem (46%) than men (41%). Concern about the cost of essentials was highest in Khulna (69%), and lowest in Sylhet (21%), where electricity (30%), was the priority concern. Combined with unemployment (12%), economic issues are a priority for a majority (55%) of respondents. Unemployment was a major concern everywhere, but highest in Chittagong (21%) and lowest in Barisal (7%). Almost a fifth (18%) of respondents cited corruption as the number one problem facing Bangladesh, compared to just 4% in 2006. Concern with corruption was highest in Barisal (31%) and Rangpur (32%) and lowest in Khulna (10%). Other major concerns are law and order (10%) and political instability and intolerance (8%).

2.3 Direction - Local Generally speaking, do you think things in your area today are going in the right direction, or in the wrong direction? (Q23)

60 56

40 29 30

20 14

10 2 0 Right direction Wrong direction Refused Don't know

Across Bangladesh respondents were more positive about the direction of their local area than they were about the national direction, with a m ajority (56%) saying that their area was headed in right direction, and less than a third (29%) in the wrong direction. 24 The Asia Foundation

Right Direction - Local

Barisal 46

Chittagong 38

Dhaka 62

Khulna 88

Mymensingh 47

Rajshahi 43

Rangpur 50

Sylhet 79

0 20 40 60 80 100 While nationally a majority were optimistic, findings varied significantly by area, with less than half of respondents thinking their community headed in the right direction in five of the eight divisions surveyed. Respondents in Khulna were most positive about the direction of their area (88%), whi le those in Chittagong (38%) were least. 2.4 Biggest Problem - Local In your view, what is the biggest problem facing the people of your area? (Q24)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Poor condition of roads 65

Unemployment 33

Law and order 26

Electricity 25

Drug addiction 13

Water and sewerage 12

River erosion 8

Lack of heath care facilities 6

Lack of schools and colleges 3

Dowry and acid violence 2

Others 4 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 25

By far the most commonly cited problem at the sub-national level is the poor condition of roads, cited by half of respondents (54%). This was also the greatest concern in 2006, when it was cited by a third (31%) as their top concern. Combined with electricity (8%), water and sewerage (5%), and healthcare facilities (1%), infrastructure issues account for two-thirds (67%) of the biggest problem s identified by respondents in their area. Other major concerns were law and order (13%) and unemployment (10%).

2.5 Conclusions and Recommendations For Political Parties and Candidates – Bangladeshis share many of the same perceptions and concerns which creates an opportunity for political parties and candidates to increase their vote by focusing their campaigns on a few key issues. At the national level, parties and candidates should ensure their campaigns and platforms include detailed plans and policies for addressing inflation of the cost of essentials and improving roads. Secondary, but still important issues are corruption, electricity supply, unemployment and law and order.

Major Concerns by Division National Local

Barisal Price of essentials, corruption Roads, law and order

Chittagong Price of essentials, unemployment Roads, unemployment

Dhaka Price of essentials, corruption Roads, law and order

Price of essentials, corruption, Khulna Roads unemployment

Price of essentials, electricity, law and Mymensingh Roads, electricity order

Rajshahi Price of essentials, corruption Roads, law and order

Rangpur Price of essentials, corruption Roads, law and order

Sylhet Electricity, price of essentials Roads, law and order 26 The Asia Foundation

At the division level, the order of priorities varies somewhat, and an effective candidate in that division will tailor her/his campaigns and policies to highlight plans to address local concerns. For example, in Chittagong, candidates will be more successful if they include approaches to reducing unemployment in their priorities, while in Mymensingh, it will be important to include an approach to improving electricity supply. For Journalists and Civil Society – Journalists and civil society organizations have an important role to play in encouraging and enhancing political accountability and the quality of democratic representation. Journalists can question politicians and political figures about their activities, plans and approaches on priority issues, and provide this information to voters. Civil society organizations that sponsor debates or voter guides can ensure that candidates and parties address these priority issues, so that voters have the information they need to make an informed choice on Election Day. 3 DEMOCRATIC VALUES

3.1 Support for Multi-Party Democracy Some people say, “To have democracy, there must be elections with more than one party competing.” (Q48)

70 63

30 27

10 4 5 1 0 Agree Agree Disagree Disagree DK strongly somewhat somewhat strongly

Bangladeshis overwhelmingly (90%) understand that to have democracy there must be more than one party competing, but evidently many view the act of boycotting as a form of competition, as 29% said in response to an earlier question that it is sometimes appropriate for parties to boycott an election. Disagreement with the statement was highest in Rangpur (11%). 28 The Asia Foundation

3.2 Political Tolerance Do you think that all political parties, even the ones most people do not like, should be allowed to hold meetings in your area? (Q49)

60 55

50 42 40 38 35

30 23

10 7

0 Yes No Don't know

2015 2006

On the surface, political tolerance is extremely low in Bangladesh, with a third (35%) of respondents unwilling to allow other parties to hold meetings in their area. Given the history of political confrontation and violence in the country there is suspicion that at least some of this may indicate a desire to avoid conflict, rather than intolerance. We did see a significant rise in uncertainty on this issue from 2006 (7%) to 2015 (23%). Women are significantly less likely to support other parties holding meetings in their area (39%) than men (46%). Those most likely to allow meetings are in Barisal (76%) and Rangpur (64%), while those least likely are in Chittagong (20%) and Sylhet (4%). Chittagong and Sylhet also had the highest levels of uncertainty at 47% and 59%, respectively. Those most likely to say other parties should not be allowed to hold meetings in their area were in Khulna (60%). Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 29 Regional Comparison - Should all political parties be allowed to hold meetings?

100 96 90 80 70 60 52 50 42 40 35 35 30 23 20 13 10 4 0 0 Yes No Don't know

Bangladesh 2015 Myanmar 2014 Cambodia 2014

Looked at in regional context, Bangladeshis are about as tolerant as respondents in Myanmar, but much less so than Cambodians. Suppose a friend of yours supported a political party that most people did not like. Would you accept that, or would it end your friendship? (Q50)

90 80 80 70 60 50 42 41 40 30 20 17 10 9 10 0 Would accept it Would end friendship Not sure

2015 2006

The most striking change in the belief since 2006 is the rise in uncertainty of more than 30 points, from 9% to 41%, but there is also a significant increase (from 10% to 17%) in those saying support for a different party would end 30 The Asia Foundation

their friendship. Uncertainty was extremely high for this question, reaching 74% in Sylhet, 68% in Chittagong, and 61% in Barisal. The most tolerant were in Dhaka (62%) and Rangpur (54%), while those most willing to say it would end their friendship were in Mymensingh (37%) and Khulna (34%). Urban voters were significantly more likely to express tolerance (49%) than rural voters (39%). The significant increase in explicit intolerance suggests that the very large increase in uncertainty may be related to social desirability bias, with those respondents unwilling to admit to interviewers that a change in a friend’s political preference would end their friendship opting for the not sure response. Taken together, these findings on tolerance indicate increasing political polarization in Bangladesh.

3.3 Freedom of speech To what extent do the people of your locality feel free in expressing their political opinions – very free, fairly free, somewhat not free, or not free? (Q51)

90 80 77 70 65 60 50 40 30 30

20 14 9 10 5 0 Free Not free Don't know

2015 2006

Although most people (65%) feel free to express their political opinion, a third (35%) do not feel free or are unsure, and there has been a significant decline in perceptions of freedom to express political opinion since 2006. Men and women feel equally free, but rural voters (67%) are significantly more likely to feel free than urban voters (58%). Those expressing the most fear were in Barisal (61%), and those with the least fear were in Mymensingh (5%). Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 31

3.4 Trust in Institutions I will read you a list of institutions. For each institution please rate its integrity according to this scale (Q52-61)

0 20 40 60 80 100

81 10 Army 3 6

73 16 RAB 7 4

53 26 Courts/Judges/Lawyers/etc. 18 3

50 30 Media/journalists 12 8

46 21 International Community 11 22

43 34 National Parliament 16 8

34 29 Election Comm. 28 9

31 38 NGOs 23 9

21 39 Political parties 34 7

20 32 Police 47 2

High or very high integrity Neither high nor low integrity Low and very low integrity No response 32 The Asia Foundation

The army (81%) and the RAB (73%) are seen as the institutions with the highest integrity, while the police were perceived by almost half the population (47%) as having low or very low integrity. Significant minorities also rated the political parties (34%) and the election commission (28%) as having low or very low integrity. Trust in parties was lowest in Sylhet, where 64% had a negative view. Support for the integrity of the police was highest in Khulna and Rajshahi, where 41% and 39% held a positive view; while the negative view of the police was most intense in Barisal (72%) and Sylhet (83%). The integrity of the army reached its peak in Khulna (99%); and nadir in Sylhet, where just 45% rated its integrity high or very high.

3.5 Civic Participation Here is a list of different types of organizations or associations. As I mention each, please tell me if you belong to it. (Q62)

Civil society remains extremely weak in Bangladesh, with three-quarters (74%) reporting they belong to no organization or association; with women (76%) Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 33

slightly less likely to belong to an association than men (72%). Those least likely to belong to any association are in Barisal (88%), while the highest density of membership in associations is in Rangpur, but even there more than half (55%) of respondents have no associational affiliation. By far, the most common organizational affiliation is with a microcredit NGOs (17%), which function more as service providers than voluntary associations. Affiliation is lowest in Barisal (3%) and Mymensingh (6%), and highest in Rangpur (39%) and Rajshahi (24%). Looking at the divisions, membership in any other type of association rises above 5% in only four cases, three of which are in Rajshahi. They are: 10% for youth associations in Rajshahi; 7% for management committee of mosque, temple or church in Sylhet; 11% belong to a women’s association in Rajshahi; and 7% belong to a religious association (non-political) in Rajshahi.

Have you ever participated in a meeting of the association or group you belong to? (Q63)

70 62 60

38 40

0 Yes No

Men (45%) were much more likely to have participated in a meeting of their association than women (31%); as were urban respondents (49%) compared to rural respondents (35%). Participation increases steadily with education (29% to 69%) and wealth (23% to 57%). 34 The Asia Foundation

Have you ever helped in making a decision at a meeting of an association or group you belong to? (Q64)

70 66

40 32 30

10 2 0 Yes No DK

Of those who have participated in association meetings, two-thirds (66%) have helped make a decision. Women are less likely to be at a meeting, and when they attend are less likely to make a decision, with 73% of men making decisions compared to 55% of women attendees.

3.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Political Tolerance – Political tolerance is a foundational value of democracy, and both the government (through schools and public service announcements) and civil society organizations (though civic education) are encouraged to strengthen their efforts to promote a culture of political tolerance. National programs can use the data from this and the 2006 survey as baselines from which to measure change over time. Because data is available by division, CSOs may want to develop pilot programs or field experiments at the division level to test hypothesis and measure the actual impact of various program approaches. The longitudinal comparisons clearly show declines in personal and community tolerance of political activity and speech, all signs of the sort of nesting behavior (retreat from social engagement and pull back to the safety of the group) typically seen with increasing polarizations, and can be a precursor to communal violence. It would be very interesting to conduct a follow-up to Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 35

this survey that looked specifically at individual and group attitudes and levels of trust that contribute to local conflict and communal violence. Civic Participation – The low level of membership in associations in Bangladesh is probably primarily related to cultural factors, including the strong cultural constraints on the participation of women in society. Another relevant factor inhibiting the formation and operation of the community-level voluntary associations may be the steadily increasing political polarization of the country, and the subsequent diminishment of societal trust that polarization engenders. Polarization is also facilitated by low levels of association, as it is more difficult to dehumanize and define someone of another political persuasion, faith or ethnicity as the “other” when that person is a member (for example) of your cricket club. Although assistance providers have devoted significant resources to strengthening “civil society” in Bangladesh, these resources have primarily been directed towards the development and maintenance of large NGO service providers (who have clients and beneficiaries rather than members), instead of the community-level voluntary associations that form the dense web of social interconnectedness classically defined as civil society. To strengthen civil society, and thus social cohesion, reformers and democracy promoters might consider programs designed to facilitate the formation of voluntary associations at the local level. In general, efforts to strengthen civil society should have a strong focus on promoting women’s participation in associations, as the foundational associations in many countries with denser civil society are women-led and education associations. The division-level data in this survey can provide a baseline from which to measure the impact and effectiveness of programs designed to strengthen civil society by increasing the number and membership of voluntary associations. 4 POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT

4.1 Interest in Politics How often do you discuss political affairs with friends? Q25

60 52

50 44 39 40 40 34 29 30 22 20 17 13 10 5 3 1 0 Almost all the Often Not very often Almost never / time Never

Total Male Female

Women are much less likely to show interest in politics than men, with 28% of men saying they always or often discuss politics, compared to just 14% of women. By division, interest was lowest in Rajshahi at 11%, and highest in Barisal at 32%. Over the past three years, would you say that your interest in political affairs has increased, decreased, or remained the same? (Q26)

60 54

40 31 30

20 16

0 Increased Decreased Remained the same Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 37

Almost a third of respondents (31%) say their interest in politics has decreased over the last three years. Lack of interest was greatest in Sylhet, where 82% said their interest in politics had decreased. Interest has increased most in Mymensingh (36%).

4.2 Political Alienation If you think about the people elected to the National Parliament, suppose someone said:“They care about people like you.” Would you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly?(Q29)

80 77 68 69 70 61 60 56 53 48 49 50 46 39 40 36 34 33 30 27 27 30 24 26 18 18 20 15 14 15

10 5 4 5 5 0

Agree strongly or somewhat Disagree strongly or somewhat DK

Nationally a small majority (56%) believe their representatives care about them. Respondents are most positive about their MPs in Khulna (77%), and least positive and Rajshahi, where just a third (33%) agreed with the statement. 38 The Asia Foundation

4.3 Impact of Elections Do you think that voting in National Parliamentary Elections will make a big difference, some difference, little difference, or no difference at all to the country’s wellbeing?( 60 52 Q30) 50

20 15 16 10 10 6

0 Big difference Some Little difference No difference DK difference at all

Two-third (67%) believe voting can make a difference, but a third do not or are unsure (32%). Belief in the power of voting is greatest in Rangpur (86%) and Khulna (85%) and the lowest in Rajshahi (30%), with other divisions about the national average. Optimism varies significantly by education from a low of 61% (less educated) to a high of 78% (graduate and above). 4.4 Political Efficacy How much influence do you think someone like you can have over national government decisions? (Q31)

50 50

20 16 16 13

10 5

0 A lot Some Very little None at all Refused/DK Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 39

Although two-third of respondents believe their representatives care about them, just a fifth (21%) think they have much influence over decision-making at the national level. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 12 87 Barisal 2 28 47 Chittagong 26 26 62 Dhaka 13 42 48 Khulna 9 30 62 Mymensingh 8 1 88 Rajshahi 11 14 83 Rangpur 3 1 33 Sylhet 66

A lot/some Very little/none Refused/don't know

Feelings of political efficacy vary widely by division and are highest in Khulna (42%) and lowest in Rajshahi (1%) and Sylhet (1%). Feelings of political efficacy are relatively low compared to other countries in the region, including Cambodia (31% - 2014) and Afghanistan (53% - 2012) How much influence do you think someone like you can have over local government decisions? (Q32) 40 35 35

30 24 25 19 20

15 14

10 7

5 1 0 A lot Some Very little None at all Refused DK 40 The Asia Foundation

Although feelings of political efficacy are significantly stronger at the local level then national level, just a third believing they have some influence. Responses again vary widely by division, but mirror to some extent the national level findings with Sylhet again lowest (6%) and Khulna highest (55%). Feelings of efficacy at every level increase with education, but increase the most at the local level: illiterate 25%; up to class 10 31%; SSC or HSC 38%; graduate and above 42%. 4.5 Political Participation In the past two years, have you been a member of an organization or group that took a position on political or community issues? (Q27)

100 92 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 8 10 0 Yes No

Men (10%) are still significantly more likely than women (6%) to be a member of a group that has taken a position on a political or community issue, but women’s participation has increased from just one percent in our 2006 survey. Participation is highest in Dhaka (16%) and lowest in Khulna (2%). Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 41

During the January 5 parliamentary elections, did you work as a volunteer for any political party or candidate, helping their campaign or as a party agent at the polls on Election Day? (Q28) (Responses from constituencies where there was no voting are excluded)

100 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 3 2 0 Yes No DK/refused

In constituencies where there was voting just 3% report working as a party agent or helping on campaigns, compared to 11% in our 2006 poll. Have you ever taken part in a demonstration on any issue? (Q65)

100 89 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 11 10 0 Yes No

Overall, a tenth (11%) of Bangladeshis have taken part in a demonstration on some issue, but there is a significant gender difference with 17% of male respondents reporting participation compared to 6% of women. Participation was highest in Dhaka (21%) and Barisal (17%) and lowest in Khulna (4%). Increasing education (8% to 24%) a nd wealth (9% to 15%) correlate with increased participation. 42 The Asia Foundation

If yes, can you tell me what the issue was? (Q66)

80 68 70

17 20 14

10 5 5 4

0 Political Environment Education Health Democracy Others

The most common reasons to participate in demonstrations are political (68%), but education (17%) and the environment (14%) are also often cited.

Took part in demonstration: male/female

80 73 70 60 53 50 40 30 21 16 18 20 12 11 10 4 6 4 4 6 0

Male Female Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 43 There are some gender differences, with men (73%) more likely than women (53%) to participate in political demonstrations; but with women (21%) almost twice as likely to participate in demonstrations related to the environment as men (12%), and almost three times as likely (11%) to participate in demonstrations on health issues than men (4%). I’m interested in how you learned about the demonstration and kept up with events. Can you tell me from the following list which media you use most often? (Q67)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Mobile phone (voice) 43

Party leaders/activists 26

Neighbors/friends/family 22

TV 3

Mobile phone (text or SMS) 2

Social Media (facebook, whatsapp etc.) 1

Others 4

Peoples’ participation in demonstrations was often organized through voice telephony, although personal contact, either with party leaders or friends and family, was equally important. Data-based organizing through SMS, smartphone, social media or internet, while increasingly common in other countries, has little impact or influence in Bangladesh.

4.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Interest in Politics – Interest in politics is low, and decreasing, with twice as many people saying their interest has decreased in the last three years than saying it has increased. Elections are viewed as consequential for direction of the country, but voters see little possibility to influence governance beyond elections. Ironically, apathy and a lack of interest may create opportunities for progressive political parties to stand out from the crowd by developing progressive policies and platforms that are responsive to voter priorities, and thereby generating both interest and a feeling of voter efficacy. To generate interest in politics among women, media outlets or an assistance provider might develop and broadcast a political talk show specifically for women. Drawing on best practice for such shows from around the world, and focusing on the concerns of women and constraints they face in everyday life (though call-in and audience interaction) such a show could popularize and help normalize women’s participation and interest in politics. 5 POLITICALPARTIES AND POLITICAL CHOICE 5.1 Party or Candidate Which is more important when choosing who to vote for–the political party or individual candidate? (Q33)

80 70 70

40 30 30

0 Political Party Individual Candidate Suggesting a lack of ideological differentiation in political parties, the individual remains the most important factor in vote choice for seven in ten respondents (70%). Rural respondents (31%) are more likely to choose party over indivi dual than urban respondents (24%). This finding is unchanged from 2006.

5.2 Most Important Candidate Attributes What attribute do you consider most important for individuals to get elected? (Q34)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Personal characteristics 44 Education 14 Family background 10 Personal achievements 9 Availability and accessibility 6 Religious piety and values 5 Introduction by the party 5 They have done good things/ delivered 4 Ability to win 2 Your personal connection 1 They are committed to development 1 Tradition / custom / community /Local… 1 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 45

Personal achievement (44%) is by far the most important factor in candidate choice. Education (14%), family background (10%), and personal achievements (9%) are also important factors. Personal characteristics are most important in Mymensingh (67%) and family background in Sylhet (46%). Party connection is most important in Barisal (43%), but doesn’t reach more than 5% in any other division.

5.3 Most Important Party Attributes What attribute do you consider most important for a party to be elected to government? (Q35)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

History of the party 32

Programs and proposals 26

Leaders of the party 8

Connection to religion 7

My family always votes for a particular… 6

Accomplishments of the party… 11

Ability to win 10

Others 1

A third of voters (32%) still look primarily to the history of the party in making voting choice, a significant increase on the quarter (24%) who mentioned this in 2006, demonstrating the continuing and possibly increasing influence and relevance of the independence war in t he political process. Just a quarter (26%) base their choice on the program of the party, and just 12% on the previous accomplishments of the party (compared to 52% in 2006). Although history of the party was the most common attribute nationally, responses split by division, with four divisions citing this relatively infrequently: Barisal (17%), Dhaka (19%), Mymensingh (17%) and Rangpur (15%); two citing it significantly more than average: Chittagong (48%) and Khulna (41%); while in Sylhet a massive majority (81%) cited this as most important attribute. Only Rajshahi (34%) was within the margin of error of the national average. In Barisal proposals and programs was the most cited attribute (43%). Religion was most important in Rajshahi (19%) and Mymensingh (15%), while family influence was strongest in Rangpur (15%). 46 The Asia Foundation

5.4 Differences Between Political Parties What difference do you see, if any, between the different parties in the National Parliament today? (Q36)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

No diﬀerences 31

There are diﬀerences but cannot specify 27

Ideology 8

Corruption 7

Commitment to development 4

Responsiveness to citizens 3

Number of members in Parliament 2

DK 18

More than three-quarters of voters (77%) see no differences or cannot name any differences between the political parties in Parliament. For those who could name a difference just 8% mention ideology. Those most likely to mention ideology were in Barisal (27%) or “graduate or above” (23%). Findings show no change since the 2006 survey. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 47

5.5 Party Alienation I don’t want to know which party you support, but thinking about that party, suppose someone said: “they care about people like you.” Would you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly? (Q37)

90 78 80

70 63 63 59 60 57 56 55 50 50 44 40 35 37 36 36 33 31 28 29 30 23 17 20 15 13 14 9 7 5 10 2 3 0

Agree strongly or somewhat Disagree somewhat or strongly DK/refused

Overall a majority of voters (57%) agree their preferred party cares for people like them, but 28% disagree with the statement, and 15% are not sure. Those most positive about their party are in Khulna (79%), and those most uncertain are in Sylhet, where 49% answered “don’t know”. Suggesting all parties have work to do to improve their image, a third (33%) of those that expressed an opinion felt the party they support didn’t care about people like them. 48 The Asia Foundation

5.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Voters still overwhelmingly base their choice on the personal characteristics of political candidates rather than party attributes which is not surprising when more than three-quarters of voters cannot identify any differences between parties.

To increase political party relevance reformers and assistance providers should encourage party officials to develop a clear party identity or “brand”. To do this, they need to define their constituency and priorities, and then articulate these issues in a few simple and memorable messages. While these messages should accurately reflect core beliefs of the party, the process of party “branding’’ is essentially the same as a commercial branding effort, and experts from this field can and should be used. Parties can reduce alienation by building stronger connections with constituents. Although polls can accurately identify voter concerns and priorities, they are impersonal. Parties aiming to build trust and strengthen commitment should also engage in public events like town halls and listening tours explicitly intended to allow constituents to engage the party and voice their priorities and concerns. Efforts aimed at “hearing from” rather than “talking to” strengthen warmth and party cohesion. 6 POLITICAL REPRESENTATION

6.1 Role of a Member of Parliament Different people have different ideas about what Members of Parliament do. What do you think they do? (Q40)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Raise local problems in 45 parliament

Participate in the National 37 Parliament to make laws

Take part in discussions on 30 national problems

Take part in discussions on the 6 quality of work of the different…

Others 2

DK 17

Understanding the role of a representative—and what they can and cannot do—is necessary knowledge if voters are going to effectively evaluate representative performance and promote political accountability. Encouragingly, the survey reveals that most Bangladeshis have some idea about the role MPs play in Parliament, but a sixth (17%) couldn’t provide any response. This is a significant decrease from the don’t know response from the 2006 survey (36%), suggesting civic education efforts have been effective. Those with the highest percentage of “don’t know” responses (and thus those in most in need of civic education on this i ssue) are in Chittagong (23%), Rajshahi (27%) and Sylhet, where more than half (53%) could provide no role for MPs. Women (23%) were twice as likely as men (11%) to have no response; and the less educated (30%) were almost twice as likely to have no response as the national average (17%). 50 The Asia Foundation 6.2 Knowledge of Representative in Parliament Many people are not sure of the name of the Member of Parliament who represents their constituency in the National Parliament. Can you name your MP? (Q38)

90 83 80 70 60 50 40 30

20 12 10 5 0 Correctly said Incorrectly said DK

Reflecting the important role that MPs play as patrons in their constituencies, 83% of respondents could correctly name their MP. This percentage is very high compared to responses from other countries in the region. For example, in Cambodia (which has multi-member rather than single-member constituencies) in 2014 just 10% could name one of their representatives.

6.3 Engagement with the Constituency As far as you know, has your Member of Parliament visited your community in the last year? (Q39)

60 51 50

40 36

20 13

0 Yes No DK Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 51 Although almost all respondents know their representatives name, only half (51%) report their MP visited their area in the last year. Again, highlighting gender-based differences and cultural constraints on equal access to information, men were 12% more likely to recall a visit (57%) as women (45%). Have you ever contacted your MP for help in solving any personal or local problem? (Q42)

100 91

20 9

0 Yes No

Reflect ing the importance of personal relationships in the patron/client system, contact with an MP is relatively common, with 9% reporting they have contacted an MP for help in solving a problem. Those most likely to report contact were in Rajshahi (14%), and those least likely in Rangpur (3%) with most other divisions near the national average. Men (11%) were almost twice as likely to contact an MP for help with a problem as women (6%). Now I’d like to ask you to tell us the ways you communicate with your MP. Which way do you think would be the most effective to reach your MP? (Q43)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Accompanied with local leader 20

Self 19

Personal assistants to MP 17

Party activists 11

MP’s relatives 9

Middlemen 7

Regular weekly meetings 2

Others 1

DK 14 52 The Asia Foundation Reflecting the personal and reciprocal nature of the patron/client relationship, a fifth (19%) of respondents say the most effective way to reach an MP would be through a personal approach; and all other major responses involve personal connections. Formal consultation processes or approaching the intermediary organizations like CSOs and NGOs barely register. 6.4 Satisfaction with MP Would you say you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the job your MP is doing? (Q41)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Very satisﬁed 5

Fairly satisﬁed 51

Somewhat dissatisﬁed 25

Very dissatisﬁed 9

Refused 3

DK 7

A majority of respondents (56%) are satisfied with the work their MP is doing, but 34% are dissatisfied and 10% are unsure. Those most satisfied are in Khulna (84%) and Sylhet (78%), while those least satisfied are in Rangpur (38%). Visitation and Satisfaction

80 72 70

60 52 50 40 40 30 23 20 8 10 6 4 6 0 Very satisfied or Somewhat Refused/DK DK satisfied dissatisfied or Very dissatisfied

MP visited last year MP didn't visit last year Although history of the party was the most common attribute nationally, responses split by division, with four divisions citing this relatively infrequently: Barisal (17%), Dhaka (19%), Mymensingh (17%) and Rangpur (15%); two citing it significantly more than average: Chittagong (48%) and Khulna (41%); while in Sylhet a massive majority (81%) cited this as most important attribute. Only Rajshahi (3 4%) was within the margin of error of the national average. In Barisal proposals and programs was the most cited attribute (43%). Religion was most important in Rajshahi (19%) and Mymensingh (15%), while family influence was strongest in Rangpur (15%).

Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 53

Satisfaction with representatives is 32 points higher among those who reported that their representative had visited the community in the last year than it is among those who were not aware of a visit. 6.5 Local Representation Do you know the name of your Union Parishad Chairman? (Q44) 100 91 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

10 3 6 0 Correctly said Incorrectly said DK

Almost everyone knows the name of their UP Chairman. Those least likely to know were in Dhaka, but even there 83% could name their UP Chairman. Have you contacted your Union Parishad chairman or members during the last two years for help in solving any of your personal or local problems? (Q45)

53 52 52

49 48 48

46 Yes No 54 The Asia Foundation

contacted the UP for help, compared to 54% of men. Nevertheless, it is clear it is much easier for women to approach local rather than national level politicians, with women contacting representatives four-fifths as often as men at the local level, but just half as often for national representatives. Have contacted a UP Official-male/female

60 54 48 50 40 42 40 30 30 19 20

0 Male Female Overall

2015 2006

Respondents were significantly more likely to have con tacted an official in the Union Parishad in 2015 (48%) than they were in 2006 (30%). In a very positive sign, the percentage of women who had contacted the UP more than doubled, from 19% to 42%, closing the (still significant) gender gap between male and female contact to 12 points, compared to 21 points in 2006. Would you say you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the job of your Union Parishad elected representatives? (Q46)

80 68 70

30 19 20

6 10 4 3 0 Very satisfied Fairly satisfied Somewhat Very dissatisfied DK dissatisfied Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 55

Almost three-quarters (74%) are satisfied with their UP representatives. Satis- faction was relatively consistent across the country with the highest (94%) in Barisal and the lowest (66%) in Dhaka. Dissatisfaction was highest in Chitta- gong (31%), Rajshahi (29%) and Dhaka (27%).

6.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Basic understanding of the role of national representatives has increased significantly over the last decade, but there remains substantial need for education on this issue in some of the more marginalized sectors of the population. Priority targets for civic education are women (who still have less access to information than men) and the less educated, and pri ority divisions are Sylhet, Rajshahi, and Chittagong. Women remain significantly less likely to have direct contact with representatives than men. Assuming that less contact correlates with a lower quality of political representation, women remain under represented in the political process. To redress this imbalance political parties, representatives, and other stakeholders should encourage the development of programs by parties and representatives specifically focused on outreach to women. 7 ELECTION ADMINISTRATION

7.1 Voter Registration Status Are you registered to vote? (Q2)

120

98 100

20 2 0 Registered as a voter Not registered as a voter

Almost everyone believes they are registered to vote. This is by far the highest total we have ever seen in an Asia Foundation survey, and suggests that voter registration need not be a top priority for resource allocation for the ECB and civil society organizations at the moment.

7.2 Knowledge of Registration and Correction Processes Do you know if the Election Commission is curre ntly registering voters? (Q1)

80 72 70

30 19 20 9 10

0 Yes No DK Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 57

Almost three-quarters (72%) of voters are aware that the election commission is still registering voters, but 19% believe they are not, and 9% are unsure. Results are similar across the country except in Rangpur (43%) and Sylhet (38%), where only four in ten are aware registration is ongoing. ECB officials in these areas should make special efforts to increase education on this issue. Can you tell me what a voter should do if their voter registration details are incorrect? (Q4)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Contact local election oﬃcial 52

Complain to local member/councilor 19

Send letter to National Election 4 Commission

Complain to police/military 2

Complain to the voter information data 2 collector

Others 1

DK 19

Only half of voters (52%) know what action to take if their voter registration details are incorrect, suggesting that voter education campaigns conducted by the ECB and civil society organizations should include this information.

7.3 Perception of ECB voter education Does the Election Commission provide useful information regarding the timing of elections and how to vote? (Q10)

80 70 70

30 18 20 12 10

0 Yes No DK 58 The Asia Foundation

Seventy percent of voters are positive about the role ECB plays in providing voter information, and excluding those with no opinion (18%), that percentage rises to 85%; while just 12% said the ECB does not provide useful information. Those most negative about the role of the ECB are in Mymensingh, where 27% said no, Rajshahi (21%) and Sylhet (18%), suggesting the ECB should concentrate on strengthen ing voter education in those areas. The number expressing a negative view is essentially unchanged from the 2006 survey (13%), with the major difference being a reduction in ‘don’t know’ respondents from 38% in 2007 to 18% in 2015.

7.4 Perception of neutrality of ECB Do you think that the Election Commission of Bangladesh is neutral? (Q11)

50 45 43 38 40 36 37 35 30 25 20 16 13 13 15 10 5 3 0 Generally neutral Sometimes biased Often biased DK and unbiased

2015 2006

The ECB faces a significant challenge in strengthening c onfidence in the neutrality of its administration process, with just the third (36%) of voters believing it is generally neutral and unbiased, and 50% saying it is sometimes or often biased. Perceptions of bias were highest in Barisal (62%) and lowest in Khulna (31%). Confidence in the ECB has deteriorated significantly since 2006, when just 19% thought it sometimes or often biased. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 59

7.5 Conclusions and Recommendations The Election Commission of Bangladesh (ECB) has clearly done an excellent job with voter registration, and a strong majority of respondents believe the ECB is effective in educating the public about the election process, but regardless of their view of the technical capacity of the ECB, voter are rapidly losing confidence in the neutrality of electoral administration.

To rebuild trust and confidence, the ECB, assi stance providers, and other stakeholders, should encourage the adoption of regulations and procedures that facilitate openness and transparency in electoral processes. 8 ATTITUDES TOWARDS ELECTIONS

8.1 Voting Participation in 2014 Following the ruling Awami League (AL) Government’s decision to remove the neutral caretaker government provisions for elections from the constitution in 2011, an 18-party alliance led by the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), decided to boycott the elections. Consequently, turnout for the elections was low, and no elections were held at all in 153 uncontested constituencies (meaning more than half of the 300 constituencies were uncontested), which explains the unusually low national turnout in the graph below.

Did you vote in the 5th January 2014 National Parliamentary Election (Q5)

80 72 70

30 28

0 Yes No

This figure includes respondents in constituencies where voting did not take place, and therefore is significantly lower than the reported voter turnout figures stated by the election commission of 40.4%. The lowest percentage participation was in Dhaka, where just 16% report voting, while the highest, at 56%, was in Khulna. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 61 Turnout in constituencies where it was possible to vote

90 80 76 80 70 55 60 49 45 44 50 40 41 40 32 30 20 10 0

If we remove respondents who could not vote because there were no elections in their constituency we get a different picture. Turnout was still at a historic low, with just half (49%) of those eligible and able to vote actually casting a ballot; well below the 75% turnout in 2001 and the 80% in 2007. The highest turnout rates were in Khulna (80%) and Sylhet (76%), while the lowest were in Dhaka. ( If yes) What are the reasons why you wanted to vote? (multiple responses allowed) (Q6)

0 10 20 30 40 50

It is my democratic right 48 Chance to choose Parliament member… 35 Civic duty / duty as citizen / democratic… 16 Better roads / schools / housing /… 14 Select honest leader 13 Vote may make a diﬀerence / this… 8 I have the freedom to vote 5 End corruption 5 Others 4 DK 1

A plurality (41%) of the voters who chose to participate in the 2014 elections report doing so because voting is their democratic right (41%). Almost as important wasbecause it provides a chance to choose their parliamentary representative (35%). The only other significant reason cited was civic duty(7%). 62 The Asia Foundation

(If no) What are the reasons why you did not vote? (Q7, multiple responses allowed)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Voting did not take place in my… 73 Fear of violence / intimidation 6 I followed other people- they didn’t … 5 No time / too busy working 4 Boycott / protest 4 Polling Station was closed 3 Cheating on polling or counting process 2 Don’t understand politics 2 Not interested in politics / elections 2 Personal reasons: too old, sick, against… 2 My vote won’t make a diﬀerence. / The … 2 Others 15

Aside from the overwhelming majority of respondents not voting because voting did not take place in their constituency, fear of violence or intimidation (6%) and social pressures (I followed other people – 5%) were the most common reasons provided.

8.2 Influence of Observers on Perception of Electoral Integrity The last time you voted did you see any independent election observers or monitors, like those from NGOs, checking that the voting process was fair? Q8

50 45 43 40 38 35 30 25 20 15 13

10 6 5 0 Yes No I’ve never voted DK Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 63

There was significant regional variations in response to this question, with Barisal, Dhaka and Khulna all reporting over 50% saw observers, while voters saw the fewest observers in Rajshahi (18%) and Rangpur (23%). Did the presence of election observers make you much more confident, somewhat more confident, a little more confident, or not more confident that the election would be free and fair? (Q9)

50 45 43 40 35 30 25 25 22 20 15

10 6 4 5 0 Much more Somewhat A little more No more DK confident more confident confident confident

It is clear that the presence of election observers strengthens the public’s perception of the legitimacy and credibility of an election process, with 68% feeling more confident, and only 10% unsure or feeling no increase in confidence. Findings vary significantly by division, with just half of voters in Barisal (50%), Chittagong (50%), Mymensingh (49%), Rajshahi (47%) feeling much or somewhat more confident; while more than nine in ten had significantly increased confidence in Khulna (94%) and Sylhet (92%). While the overall percentage of those gaining at least some confidence from the presence of observers (90%) is similar to that recorded for 2007 elections (94%), the impact of the boycott and other political upheavals is indicated in intensity, with 53% saying ‘much more confident’ in 2006, compared to just 25% in 2015. 64 The Asia Foundation

8.3 Perceptions of Fairness of 2014 Election Process Some people say the 5 January 2014 National Parliamentary Elections last year were free and fair, some say they were not free and fair, and some are not sure. How about you? (Q12)

50 47 45 40 35 32 30 25 20 15 13 10 7 5 0 Free and fair Not free and fair Not sure DK

The perceptions of bias highlighted in the previous question are echoed in voter’s perception of the relative fairness of the 2014 election, with just a third (32%) confiden t it was free and fair. The highest levels of confidence in the electoral process were expressed in Khulna (62%) and Sylhet (62%), and the lowest were in Barisal (24%), Chittagong (20%) and Rajshahi (20%). Perceptions of fairness have declined precipitously since we asked respondents about the 2001 elections (in our 2007 survey). At that time just 18% said the elections were not free and fair, compared to 47% in the current survey; while those saying the elections were free and fair declined from 66% to 32%. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 65

8.4 Problems in Elections I’m going to mention some problems that can occur in elections. Do you think it is possible that these problems could happen in the next Bangladesh National Parliamentary Election? (Q13, yes responses for each problem mentioned) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Violence against party activists or voters 33 Cheating in vote counting 26 Threats from government oﬃcials to… 21 None of these problems are possible 16 Gifts or payments for votes 15 People being forced to pledge to vote… 13 News media bias favoring a particular… 7 People being forced to join a party and… 6 Finding out how people voted without… 4 Residents not being allowed to register 3 Others 1 Refused 3 DK 21 Voters in general are most likely to expect violence against party activists or voters (33%), che ating in the vote counting (26%), and pressure from government officials to vote for a particular party (21%). Responses varied widely according to a number of factors, including education, wealth and location. Compared to expectations for the 2007 elections, concerns increased or remained the same in every category except vote-buying, cited by 27% in 2007 compared to 15% in 2015. The largest change in any category was in ‘none of these are possible’, which decreased from 33% in 2007 to 16% in 2015. Urban voters (40%) were significantly more likely to expect violence against activists or voters than rural voters (30%). By division, expectations ranged from a high of 40% in Dhaka, to a low of 15% in Sylhet. Expectations for violence rise steadily with education level (26% to 48%), and wealth (21% to 45%). Concern about pressure from government officials is relatively consistent across the country (from 19% to 27%) except in Khulna, where just 4% expressed concern. Although nationally just 15% are concerned about vote-buying, this number varied widely by division, Khulna (31%) and Rajshahi (44%) being most concerned, and Barisal (1%), Chittagong (3%), Mymensingh (3%) and Sylhet (3%) being least concerned. Interestingly, expectations for vote-buying increased significantly with education level from 13% to 27%. 66 The Asia Foundation

Again, reflecting the general lack of confidence in election administration, a quarter (26%) of voters expressed concern about cheating in the vote counting. This figure varied significantly by location, education, and wealth. Twenty-three percent of rural voters expressed concern, but the expectations of urban voters were significantly worse (35%). By division, concern was highest in Dhaka (36%) and Khulna (33%), and lowest in Rangpur (12%) and Sylhet (9%).

Those most likely to say none of these problems can occur in elections were in Sylhet (41%) and Khulna (30%), but even in those areas a strong majority have doubts about some aspects of the election process. 8.5 Election Security In some places, people say there were threats of violence against the supporters or activists during the 2014 National Parliamentary Elections. Did you hear of threats or violence in your own upazila? (Q14_1)

80 74

30 20 20

10 5

0 Yes No DK

A fifth of voters (20%) heard of threats or violence in their upazila. The least likely to report hearing about threats of violence were in Khulna (17%), Mymensingh (12%), Rajshahi (8%), Rangpur, and Sylhet (10%), with the other divisions averaging about 25% of voters having heard of threats or violen ce. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 67

In some places, people say there were threats of violence against the supporters or activists during the 2014 National Pa rliamentary Elections. Did you hear of threats or violence in other upazilas? (Q14_2)

50 47 45 42 40 35 30 25 20

15 11 10 5 0 Yes No DK When there are elections are you concerned about your personal security? (Q15)

90 78 80 70 60 50 40 30 19 20

10 3 0 I don’t feel worried about I feel worried about my DK my personal security personal security

Reflecting the high incidence of political violence typical of elections in Bangladesh, a fifth of voters (19%) report being concerned for their own security during elections. While most divisions clustered around the average, there were two clear outliers. In Barisal, more than half (55%) worry about their security during elections, while in Khulna, just 8% were worried. Overall findings are similar to those we recorded in our 2006 survey. 68 The Asia Foundation 8.6 Perception of Boycott Is it ever appropriate for political parties to boycott an election? (Q17) 60 50 50

29 30 21 20

0 Sometimes it is It is not appropriate to DK appropriate to boycott an boycott an election election Half of respondents don’t believe it is appropriate for political parties to boycott an election, while 29% of respondents believe there are occasions where such actions are appropriate. It is likely that respondents’ attitudes towards the 2014 parliamentary elections - where the BNP led an 18-party coa lition boycott – informed attitudes on this issue. Mymensingh reported the highest level of support for boycotting elections (38%), while Barisal recorded the lowest level of support (12%). 8.7 Gift Giving and Vote Buying In some places, people say that political parties give gifts like rice, t-shirts, hats or money to voters before an election. Have you heard of that happening in your community? (Q18) 50 44 45 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 9 10 5 2 0 Yes, I’ve heard of No, I haven’t heard Refused DK parties giving of parties giving gifts/money gifts/money Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 69

The practice of gift giving as a form of political campaigning is common in Bangladesh, with 44% of respondents saying they have heard of the practice in their community. The percentages of respondents who reported hearing about gift giving in their community varied widely by division, with the lowest being in Barisal (6%), and the highest in Khulna (63%). Other figures are Chittagong (33%), Dhaka (52%), Mymensingh (40%), Rajshahi (47%), Rangpur (53%, and Sylhet (17%). Although gift-giving is perceived as common, just 15% cited it as problem expected in the next election (Q.13), suggesting that most Bangladeshis don’t view gift-giving as abnormal or a factor affecting the overall integrity of elections. Recent international research suggests that much of what is commonly referred to as vote-buying with cash or gifts is directed primarily at a party for candidate’s supporters as a means of getting out the vote rather than the supporters of other candidates. Authors of this report believes that in many Asian countries electoral gift-giving is linked to the persistence of traditional patron/client social structures, and is intended primarily as a symbolic representation of the reciprocal ties between the patron and client. It would be interesting to do further research on this issue in Bangladesh. If a political party offered money, food, or gifts to voters in your communit would likely change their vote to that party 45 40 38 35 30 25 19 20 20

15 11 10 8 4 5 0 Very many Some A few Almost no Refused DK one Although almost half the population have heard about gift-giving in their area, only 25% believe that gift-giving has a significant effect on how people vote. Once again responses varied widely by division, with 42% in Dhaka believing very many or some would be influenced by a gift, while far fewer felt that way in Mymensingh (5%) and in Sylhet (10%). Among other factors only wealth was significant, with wealthier people slightly more likely to believe that votes could be bought. 70 The Asia Foundation Here are three views about parties giving gifts in cash or kind during elections. Which is closer to your view? (Q20) 70 66

17 20 14

10 4 0 OK to take money If one takes money, Cash or kind DK and vote for party correct action is to nothing should be you like vote for party given or taken

Regardless of the symbolic nature of gift-giving in most elections, it still has the potential to change the outcome of elections in Bangladesh. Nationally, 14% believe that they have a moral obligation to vote for a party or candidate that provides a gift. A clear majority (66%) think nothing should be taken, while 17% think it is okay to take the money and vote for any party or candidate. This attitude is actually encouraged in many countries where refusal of the gift can create that perception of support for the opposing candidate or party (in effect negating the secrecy of the ballot), and lead to negative consequences for the voter (social ostracism, denial of service, threats or violence). The most fertile ground for vote-buyers is Khulna, where a third (33%) felt a moral responsibility to vote for the gift-giving party or candidate. The least pro- ductive division would be Barisal (0%), where none of the 183 respondents surveyed thought a gift should change a vote. Belief that gift-giving should influence vote choice varied between Mymensingh (9%) and Sylhet (21%).

Bangladeshis perceive the quality of elections as declining. The government’s decision to end the neutral administration of elections by a caretaker government, and the subsequent decision by some parties to boycott the 10th parliamentary election, has significantly decreased respondents’ perception of the integrity and credibility of the election process. Violence in elections, which decreased significantly in the 2008 elections, has reemerged as the public’s greatest concern with election processes. With the polarization of the electorate, and the common perception that the ECB has been politicized, there seems no easy solution for rebuilding trust in elections. Increasing the number of election observer to deter fraud and enhance transparency appears to be one area that should be further supported. 9 WOMEN IN ELECTIONS AND POLITICS

9.1 Gender Choice for Parliament

Do you think that members of the National Parliament should be all men, mostly men, equal number of men and women, mostly women, or all women? (Q68)

70 59 60 53 50 46 39 40 34 30 30 20 9 10 8 10 3 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 All men Mostly men Equal Mostly All women DK number of women men and women

Total Male Female

Although the leaders of both major parties in Bangladesh are women, a strong majority of Bangladeshis (62%) think Parliament should have only or mostly male representatives. This attitude is expressed most strongly by men (69%), but is held by a majority of women (55%) as well, including 8% who agree with the extreme view that parliament should be all men. 72 The Asia Foundation

Gender choice for parliament by age group 70 57 60 53 49 50 45 43 38 40 35 30 27

20 11 8 9 8 10 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 0 All men Mostly men Equal Mostly All women DK number of women men and women

Up to 24 25 - 29 30 - 49 50+

On a slightly more hopeful note, support for gender equality is highest among the young (43% for those less than 25 and falling steadily with age to 27% for those over 50), although still very low by regional standards. Gender choice for parliament by education

60 55 5452 50 50 4039 40 3133 30

20 11 9 8 10 6 6 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All men Mostly men Equal Mostly All women DK number of women men and women

Illiterate Upto class 10 SSC Or HSC Graduate & above

While age is significant, level of education has relatively little effect on support for gender equality. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 73

Gender choice for parliament by division

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

13 71 14 Barisal 0 0 1

4 55 37 Chittagong 2 0 2

12 60 27 Dhaka 0 0 0

9 57 33 Khulna 2 0 0

5 65 29 Mymensingh 0 0 0

18 42 31 Rajshahi 1 0 9

3 72 14 Rangpur 0 0 11

5 65 27 Sylhet 1 0 2

All men Mostly men Equal number of men and women Mostly women All women DK

Most supportive of equal numbers for men and women in parliament is Chittagong (37%), while least supportive is Barisal (14%), but both extremes are outliers with support for equal numbers averaging about 30% in the other divisions surveyed. 74 The Asia Foundation

Gender choice comparison with Afghanistan

62 All or mostly men 42

35 Equal 44

1 All or mostly women 13

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Bangladesh 2015 Afghanistan 2015

Surprisingly, and somewhat countering intuitively, Bangladesh is significantly less accepting of women in parliament than Afghanistan, also surveyed in 2015. This difference may be related to the massive civic education efforts conducted by the international community in Afghanistan over the last decade, rather than a significantly more tolerant culture. 9.2 Reasons for Gender Choice Why do you think so? (asked of those with a preference for ‘all men’ or ‘mostly men’) (Q69)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Men know more than women 40

Men are more intelligent 21

Men are better educated 7

Men better understand politics 11

Men are better at managing 3

Men have capacity in multidimensional… 5

Women do not understand politics as… 3

Men are more experienced, so they are… 4

Politics generally suits men 3

Others 4

76 The Asia Foundation 9.3 Independence of Women’s Choice in Voting Do you think a woman should make her own choice in voting, or do you think she should be advised by men in her choice? (Q71)

90 83 80

70 62 60 50 37 40 30 17 20 10 0 Make her own choice Men should advise her

2015 2006

Although many think women unsuited for political leadership, most (83%ce) believe women should make their own choice in voting. There is no differen between the responses of men and women on this issue, and a signi ficant increase in tolerance for women’s choice compared to our 2006 findings. Women’s voting choice – rural/urban

100 90 90 81 80 70 60 50 40 30 19 20 10 10 0 Make her own choice Men should advise her

Rural Urban elieve Urban voters are slightly more likely (90%) than rural voters (81%) to b women should make their own choice. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 77

Women’s voting choice –by division

120 98 100 91 87 84 83 79 80 73 55 60 45

40 27 21 16 17 20 9 13 2 0

Make her own choice Men should advise her

Rangpur is a clear outlier on this issue, as just 55% support women’s freedom to choose during voting. Those most supportive are in Khulna (98%). Women’s voting choice – by age 100 89 90 84 84 80 80 70 60 50 40

30 20 16 16 20 11 10 0 Up to 24 25 - 29 30 - 49 50+

Make her own choice Men should advise her The belief that men should advise women increases steadily with age from 11% for those under 25 to 21% for those over 50. 78 The Asia Foundation

Women’s voting choice – by education

120

95 100 90 84 80 73

40 27 16 20 10 5 0 Illiterate Upto class 10 SSC Or HSC Graduate & above

Make her own choice Men should advise her

Support for women’s choice in voting increases steadily with education from 73% for the least educated, to 95% for graduates and above.

Women’s voting choice – regional comparison

Thailand 2009 8

Cambodia 2014 6

Bangladesh 2015 17

Afghanistan 2015 22

Myanmar 2014 18

0 5 10 15 20 25

About a fifth of respondents in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar believe men should advise women on voting choice, compared to about a fifteenth (7%) for the Southeast Asian countries recently surveyed on this issue. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 79

9.4 Support for Reserved Seats for Women Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the law of reserving seats for women, or does it not matter to you? (Q72)

50 45 45 40 35 30 26 25 20 21 21 20 15 14 15 11 9 10 10 5 5 3 0 Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strong Nothing to me Don’t know support support opposition opposition against policy against policy

2015 2006

Although a majority believe national government should be mostly for men, a strong majority (71%) support reserved seats for women, double the percentage that supported this position in 2006 (35%). Support is weakest in Rajshahi (32%) and strongest in Khulna (90%).

(If answer in Q:72 is Strongly support or Somewhat support), why do you support the law of reserving seats for women? (Q73)

0 20 40 60 80

To help women progress 72

To promote equality with men 22

Give women confidence / power 5

Others 2

The primary reasons given for supporting reservation of seats for women relates to addressing the perceived deficiencies or weaknesses in the situation of women. 80 The Asia Foundation 9.5 Gender Preference for Representative Who do you prefer as a representative of your constituency in the National Parliament – a man, a woman, or it makes no difference? (Q74)

60 56 53 47 49 50 40 40 33

8 10 5 2 2 3 2 0 A man A woman Makes no don't know difference

male female national

Reflecting a strong belief that men are more suited for national politics, 40% would prefer a man as their representative in parliament. There is a significant gender difference on this issue with 47% of men preferring a male representative, while for women just 33% prefer a male representative. Preference for a male representative is highest in Barisal (69%) and Sylhet (65%), and lowest in Chittagong (27%) and Rangpur (16%). Gender preference for representative – compared to 2006

80 70 70

60 53 50 40 40

30 23 20 10 5 6 2 1 0 A man A woman Makes no don't know difference

2015 2006

Preference for a male representative has decreased significantly since 2006.

Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 81

9.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Women in Bangladesh face severe cultural constraints on equal participation in the political life of the country. While such attitudes would have been common in many countries only 50 years ago, they are increasingly rare in the 21st century, where even countries like Afghanistan are more accepting of women in politics. While Bangladesh is still at a low level in the acceptance of women in politics, our findings do show that there has been a significant increase in tolerance since 2006. In other countries with significant cultural constraints on equal participation of women in the political process (for example Afghanistan and Indonesia), donor-funded civic education campaigns have been successful in facilitating national reflection that resulted in significant changes in attitude and opinion in a relatively short period. In Bangladesh, government, assistance providers, and other stakeholders interested in promoting equality for women should consider a comprehensive “it’s only fair” program aimed at modifying attitudes towards appropriate roles for women in politics. Such a program could be conducted nationally, or piloted as a field experiment in one or two divisions, using the divisional data from this survey as a baseline from which to measure the impact of the approach in targeted divisions, and to compare with control divisions that do not receive the treatment. 10 COMMUNICATION AND SOCIAL MEDIA

10.1 Sources of Information How do you normally get information about what is happening in the country? Is there any other way you get information about what is happening in the country? (Q75)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

84 Television 5 1 Radio 4 1 Newspapers 25 2 Mobile phone 11 1 Village leaders 3 0 Imam or religious leader 1 9 Friends, family and neighbors 36 1 Bazaar 8 0 NGO 0 0 Workplace 1 0 Internet 2 1 None 2 0 DK 1

Television is by far the most important media though which Bangladeshis learn about what is happening in the country (84%). Friends, family, and neighbors are cited as an import ant information source by 9% (rising to 36% as a second choice), while newspapers are cited by a quarter (25%) as a second choice source of information. Radio is insignificant, except in Khulna, where 24% cited it as their second choice for information. Mobiles phones were an important second source in Mymensingh (24%) and Sylhet (38%). Friends, family and neighbors were most important for the illit erate, with 14% citing it as a first choice and 52% citing it as a second choice. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 83

Longitudinal and regional comparison of most effective media

90 84

60 54

50 44

40 33 29 30 27 23 21 20 10 9 8 9 10 6 7 2 2 1 1 0 0 0

Bangladesh 2015 Bangladesh 2006 Myanmar 2014* Cambodia 2014 84 The Asia Foundation

10.2 Phone Ownership and Access to Internet Do you own a mobile phone? (Q76)

90 79 80 70 60 50 40 30 21 20 10 0 Yes No

A large majority (79%) of Bangladeshis now own mobile phones, but a fifth (21%) do not. Men (85%) are more likely to own a phone than women (73%), and the youngest (less than 25 years old) are significantly more likely (88%) to own phones than those over 50 (69%). Ownership is highest in Khulna (90%) and lowest in Sylhet, where just 55% have a phone. As expected, ownership increases steadily with education and wealth. How often do you use SMS, frequently, sometimes, rarely, or never? (Q77)

50 46 45 40 35 30

25 21 20 17 15 10 10 5 3 2 0 Frequently Sometimes Rarely Never Can’t SMS Refused

Text messaging or SMS is rarely used in Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 85

Can you access the internet from that phone? (Q78) 100 88 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

20 12 10 0 Yes No

Just 12% have access to internet from a phone; 16% of men and 9% of women. Access is greatest in Dhaka (16%). Do you have a computer at home that you use to access the internet? (Q79)

100 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 0 Yes No

Just 5% have a computer at home able to access the internet. 86 The Asia Foundation

10.3 Access to Social Media (If yes to either or both of the previous two questions) do you ever use your phone or computer to access social media? (Q81) 80 72 70

40 28 30

0 Yes No

Most people that have access to the internet use it to access social media (72%).

(If yes) how often? (Q82) 60 51 50

30 22 23 20

10 4

0 Multiple times per Once per day A few times per Rarely day week Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 87 Whi ch platforms do you normally use to communicate online? (Q83)

70 62 60

28 30 21 19 20 15 12 10 7

0 Facebook Whatsapp Viber Twitter Skype Others None

Facebook (62%) is by far the most used social media platform in Bangladesh. Twitter is used by just 12% of respondents. WhatsApp (21%), Viber (15%) and Skype (19%) are used by a similar proportion of respondents.

If yes to Facebook or twitter, what do you use these platforms for? (Q84)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Communicating with family and friends 86

To get news or educational material 45

To shop or communicate with a business 6

For entertainment 49

For political activity 11

Other 1

As you would expect, a very high proportion of respondents use these platforms for everyday communication with family and friends (86%). Half of all users consume entertainment on the platforms, while news and educational material is accessed by 45% of respondents. A relatively high 11% of respondents use the platforms for po litical activity. 88 The Asia Foundation

10.4 Conclusions and Recommendations Television remains the primary source for information for most Bangladeshis, and therefore should be prioritized above radio or newspapers for public service announcements or civic outreach messaging. Access to a mobile phone is close to universal which provides opportunities for donors to develop programs incorporating these technologies. Access to the Internet is still limited to a small percentage of the population, however with the increasing number of cheap smart phones on the market, it is expected that access rates will rise quickly over the coming years. Facebook is the only social media platform used widely within Bangladesh, and is already used widely for both commercial and public service advertising. 11 ANNEX A –METHODOLOGY

11.1 Survey Sample

The target population for this survey was Bangladesh citizens aged 18 and over. The sample was prepared so as to ensure it was representative for both urban and rural areas of Bangladesh, with oversampling used where necessary to ensure data could be disaggregated down to the divisional level. As a result, a sample size of 3200 was determined to be n ecessary, with 2011 census data used for the allocation of primary sample units (PSUs). For the nationwide dataset, weighing of divisional data was carried out where necessary to ensure the appropriate proportion of the divisional population was properly reflected. The survey has a margin of area of +/- 3%, with a confidence level of 95%.

MULTISTAGE RANDOM SAMPLING METHOD 90 The Asia Foundation

11.2 Step 1. Distribution of sampling points by divisional and urban/rural strata The 2011 population census was used to identify the correct urban/rural proportional breakdown of PSUs. The census states that 23% of the Bangladeshi population live in urban areas, while 77% live in rural areas. A total of 419 PSUs were required and were allocated to divisions on a probability proportionate to populati on (PPP) basis. The administrative areas known as ‘villages’ were used for the selection of rural PSUs, while ‘mahallas’ were used for the selection of urban PSUs. The table below outlines the divisional breakdown, with 94 urban and 315 rural PSUs selected. Cities and towns allocated as city corporations and municipalities are identified as urban areas in Bangladesh, while the rest of the country is designated as rural. Number of Primary Sampling Units by Division Division Primary Sampling Unit Total Rural Urban

(Village) (Mahalla) BARISAL 23 19 4 CHITTAGONG 83 63 20 DHAKA 102 63 39 MYMENSINGH 30 26 4 KHULNA 47 39 8 RAJSHAHI 54 45 9 RANGPUR 45 39 6 SYLHET 25 21 4 Grand Total 409 315 94

With the number of rural and urban PSUs identified for each division, computer generated random numbers are used to select PSUs from a separate lists of urban and rural PSUs in each division.

11.3 Step 2: Sample Household Selection For each selected village or mahalla, a common land mark is identified by the field supervisor. The house identified as closest to this landmark is chosen as the firs t sampled household to be interviewed. Subsequent households to be interviewed are identified as every 15th household, counting away from the first identified household using geographic contiguity, until all 8 households have been interviewed. Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 91

11.4 Step 3: Selection of Sample Respondents by using Grid System Method The principle for selection of the sampled respondent in a household is implemented using the general grid system. There are two tasks involved in the selection process: first, the identification of eligible persons aged 18 years and older and, second, the selection of one qualifying person using one of the below grids. Data c ollectors rotated each of the five grids for each new household. The identification of qualifying people consists of drawing up a list of all adults (age 18+) in the household with demographics-gender and age and other information including education, occupation and relationship with the head of the household.

Grid 1: Selection of Individual for Interview Household Size: No. of Adults (18 yrs+) : Male : Female :

Total no of Adults (18 yrs+) 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 Adult Youngest Male Youngest Oldest Male Male Male over 18 F over 18 E 1 Adult Adult Oldest Adult Female M Female Male Female A 2 Oldest Female Adult Male Oldest Male L E 3 Youngest Any Adult Male S Female over 18 4+ Oldest Female 92 The Asia Foundation

Grid 2: Selection of Individual for Interview Household Size: No. of Adults (18 yrs+) : Male : Female :

Total no of Adults (18 yrs+) 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 Adult Male Youngest Male Oldest Male Oldest Male F Over 18 E 1 Adult Adult Male Adult Female Youngest Male Female M Over 18 A 2 Youngest Oldest Oldest L Female over 18 Female Female E 3 Oldest Youngest Female Female Over 18 S 4+ Youngest Female Over 18

Grid 3: Selection of Individual for Interview Household Size: No. of Adults (18 yrs+) : Male : Female :

Total no of Adults (18 yrs+)

0 1 2 3 4+ 0 Adult Male Oldest male Youngest Male Youngest Male F Over 18 Over 18 E 1 Adult Adult Adult Oldest M Female Female Female Male A 2 Oldest Female Youngest Youngest L Female Over 18 Female Over 18 E 3 Youngest Oldest Female S Female Over 18 4+ Oldest Female Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 93

Grid 4: Selection of Individual for Interview Household Size: No. of Adults (18 yrs+) : Male : Female :

Total no of Adults (18 yrs+) 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 Adult Male Oldest Male Oldest Male Youngest Male F Over 18 E 1 Adult Adult Male Youngest Male Adult Female Female M Over 18 A 2 Youngest Youngest Female Youngest Male L Female Over 18 Over 18 Over 18 E 3 Oldest Female Any Adult Male

S 4+ Youngest Female Over 18

Grid 5: Selection of Individual for Interview Household Size: No. of Adults (18 yrs+) : Male : Female :

Total no of Adults (18 yrs+) 0 1 2 3 4+ F 0 Adult Male Oldest Male Middle Male Second Oldest E Male

M 1 Adult Adult Female Youngest Male Middle Male Female A Over 18 2 Youngest Oldest Female Oldest or L Female Over 18 Youngest Male E 3 Middle Female Middle Female S 4+ Second Youngest Female 94 The Asia Foundation

11. 5 Quality Control by Supervisors in the Field During fieldwork, supervisors were allocated to oversee the selection of households and respondents. All questionnaires were checked, first by the interviewer and then by the supervisor, before leaving the sample area at the end of the day. Both supervisor and interviewer had to sign completed and checked questionnaires. Complete questionnaires were those with all questions properly completed and without missing fields.

11.6 Quality Control with Random Spot Checks Random spots checks were carried out by both staff of the data collection firm (SRS), and the Asia Foundation. Representatives of SRS were allocated on a systematic basis to a random sample of the selected PSUs on data collection days to ensure presence of data collectors, procedures for household selection and individual selection were followed correctly. Representatives of the Asia Foundation visited 25 PSUs where SRS quality control staff had been allocated to ensure their attendance and monitor the data collection process. ANNEX B - QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Now I would like to talk with you about the election process in Bangladesh. Do you know if the Election Commission is currently registering voters? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes, they are registering voters now. 1 No, they are not registering voters right now. 2 Don’t know. 90

2. Are you registered to vote? If so, what year were you registered?

An s: Yes, Year ------( GO TO Q.4) Yes, but I don’t remember the year of registration 2 ( GO TO Q.4) I am not registered as a voter 3

3. Can you tell me why you are not registered to vote? (Do not read responses; circle the applicable response.)

The Data Collector did not visit house 1 Did not visit registration centre to provide fingerprints and photograph 2 Live elsewhere & will be registered. there 3 Chose not to be registered 4 Out of the country 5 Other 51

4. Can you tell me what a voter should do if their voter registration details are incorrect? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response.)

Contact local election official 1 Send letter to National Election Commission 2 Complain to local member/councilor 3 Complain to police/military 4 Complain to NGO 5 Complain to the voter information data collector 6 Not sure 7 Other (specify) 51 Don’t know 90 96 The Asia Foundation

5. I do not want to know whom you voted for. But tell me: did you vote in the 5th January 2014 National Parliamentary Election (MP election)? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2 – GO TO Q. 7 Non response 66 – GO TO Q. 8

6. (if yes) What are the reasons why you wanted to vote ? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted.)

Chance to choose Parliament member of my liking / 1 It is my democrati c right 2 End corruption 3 Select honest leader 4 Vote may make a difference 5 Have the freedom to vote 6 Better roads / schools / housing / health care / Mosques/temples/ other material benefits 7 Civic duty / duty as citizen / democratic obligation 8 Social pressure 9 Because the authorities told me to / I was ordered to 10 Expected to receive money or gifts for voting 11 For peace, not to have conflict / peace for next generation 12 Other (specify______) 51 Don’t know 90

7. (if no) What are the reasons why you did not vote? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted.)

Voting did not take place in my constituency 1 Don’t understand politics 2 Don’t know enough about the parties / candidates 3 Don’t know how to cast a vote 4 Don’t support any party / candidate 5 My vote won’t make a difference. / The election won’t make A difference. 6 Fear of violence / intimidation 7 Personal reasons: too old, sick, against my religion, etc. 8 Not interested in politics / elections 9 No time / too busy working 10 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 97

Boycott / protest 11 It doesn’t matter who is in power, the situation will be the same. 12 I followed other people- they didn’t vote, So I didn’t go to vote. 13 Cheating on polling or counting process 14 Polling Station was closed 15 Other (specify______) 51 Don’t know 90

8. The last time you voted did you see any independent election observers or monito rs, like those from NGOs, checking that the voting process was fair? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2 -- (Skip Q 10) I’ve never voted 3---(Skip Q 10) Don’t know 90--- (Skip Q 10) Refused to answer 66--- (Skip Q 10)

9. Did the presence of election observers make you much more confident, somewhat more confident, a little more confident, or not more confident that the elec tion would be free and fair? (Circle the applicable response.)

Much more confident 1 Somewhat more confident 2 A little more confident 3 No more confident 4 Don’t know 90

10. Does the Election Commission provide useful information regarding the timing of elections and how to vote? (Circle the applicable response) Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know 90

11. Do you think that the Election Commission of Bangladesh is neutral?( Please read responses; circle the applicable response.) Generally neutral and unbiased 1 Sometimes biased 2 Often biased 3 Don’t know 90 98 The Asia Foundation

Now I would like to ask you some questions about the National Parliamentary Elections.

12. Some people say the 5 January 2014 National Parliamentary Elections last year were free and fair, some say they were not free and fair, and some are not sure. How about you? (Circle the applicable response.) Free and fair 1 Not free and fair 2 Not sure 3 Don’t know 90

13. I am going to mention some problems that can occur in elections. Do you think it is possible that these problems could happen in the next Bangladesh National Parliamentary Election? (Please read responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted.) Residents not being allowed to register 1 Violence against party activists or voters 2 Threats from government officials to make residents vote for a particular party 3 People being forced to pledge to vote for a party 4 News media bias favoring a particular party 5 Finding out how people voted without their permission 6 (i.e. violating the confidentiality of voting) Gifts or payments for votes 7 People being forced to join a party and vote for it 8 Cheating in vote counting 9 None of these problems are possible 10 Other (specify______) 51 No answer 66 Don’t know 90 14. In some places, people say there were threats of violence against the supporters or activists during the 2014 National Parliamentary Elections. Did you hear of threats or violence in your own upazila or other upazilas? (Circle the applicable response.)

Ans: Heard of in own upazila Yes: 1 No: 2 Don’t know 90 Heard of in other upazilas Yes: 1 No: 2 Don’t know 90 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 99

15. When there are elections are you concerned about your personal security? (Circle the applicable response.)

I don’t feel worried about my personal security. 1 I feel worried about my personal security. 2 I don’t know 90

16. All of the political parties have at one time or another boycotted Parliament by having their MPs not attend Parliament. Which of the following two statements ref lects your opinion? (Circle the applicable response.)

Sometimes appropriate for MPs to boycott Parliament 1 It is not appropriate for MPs to boycott Parliament 2 Don’t know 90

17. Is it ever appropriate for political parties to boycott an election? (Circle the applicable response.)

Sometimes it is appropriate to boycott an election 1 It is not appropriate to boycott an election 2 Don’t know 90

18. In some places, people say that political parties give gifts like rice, t-shirts, hats or money to voters before an election. Have you heard of that happening in your community? Yes, I’ve heard of parties giving gifts/money 1 No, I haven’t heard of parties giving gifts/money 2 No response 66 Don’t know 90

19. If a political party offered money, food, or gifts to voters in your community, how many people would likely change their vote to that party – very many, some, a few, or almost no one?: (Circle the applicable response) Very many 1 Some 2 A few 3 Almost no one 4 Don’t know/ 90 No response 66 100 The Asia Foundation

20. Here are three views about parties giving gifts in cash or kind during elections. (Show card – let the respondent point the applicable response;for the illiterate - please read responses)

• Some people say, “It’s OK to take money from a political party. Poor people need money, and it may be dangerous to refuse to accept money or a gift. Because the vote is secret, you can still vote for the part y you like.”

• Some people say, “If someone gives you money or gifts to vote for a particular party, the correct action is to vote for that party.”

• Some people say, “You should not accept gifts in return for your vote, as it undermines democracy”

Which of these three statements is the closest to your view?

OK to take money and vote for party you like 1 If one takes money, correct actio n is to vote for party 2 Cash or kind nothing should be given or taken 3 Don’t know 90

21. Generally speaking, do you think things in Bangladesh today are going in the right direction, or going in the wrong direction? (Circle the applicable response.)

Right direction 1 Wrong direction 2 Don’t know 90 No answer 66

22. [Do not read the responses.]In your view, what is the bigge st problem facing Bangladesh at the national level? (Circle first response.) And which is the second most important? (Circle second response.) 1st 2nd Price hike of essentials 1 1 Corruption 2 2 Law and order 3 3 Unemployment 4 4 Electricity 5 5 Political instability and intolerance 6 6 Other (specify______) 51 51 No answer 66 66 Don’t know 90 90 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 101

23. Now let’s talk about your area. Generally speaking, do you think things in your area today are going in the right direction, or in the wrong direction? (Circle the applicable response.)

Right direction 1 Wrong direction 2 Don’t know 90 No answer 66

24. [Do not read the responses.] In your view, what is the biggest problem facing the people of your area? (Circle first response. ) And which is the second most important? (Circle second response.)

1st 2nd Poor condition of roads 1 1 Law and order 2 2 River erosion 3 3 Electricity 4 4 Drug addiction 5 5 Unemployment 6 6 Water and sewerage 7 7 Lack of schools and colleges 8 8 Lack of heath care facilities 9 9 Dowry and acid violence 10 10 Other (specify______) 51 51

25. How often do you discuss political affairs with friends? Almost all the time, often, not very often, or almost never?

Almost all the time 1 Often 2 Not very often 3 Almost never / Never 4 Don’t know 90 26. Over the past three years, would you say that your interest in political affairs has increased, decreased, or remained the same?

Increased 1 Decreased 2 Remained the same 3 102 The Asia Foundation

27. In the past two years, have you been a member of an organization or group that took a position on political or community issues? (Circle the applicable response.) Yes 1 No 2

28. During the January 5 parliamentary elections, did you work as a volunteer for any political party or candidate, helping their campaign or as a party agent at the polls on Election Day? (Circle the applicable resp)onse.

Yes 1 No 2 There was no voting in my constituency 3 No Answer 66

29. If you think about the people elected to the National Parliament, suppose someone said: “They care about people like you.” Would you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly? (Circle the applicable response.) Agree strongly 1 Agree somewhat 2 Disagree somewhat 3 Disa gree strongly 4 Don’t know 90

30. Do you think that voting in National Parliamentary Elections will make a big difference, some difference, little difference, or no difference at all to the country’s wellbeing? (Circle the applicable response.)

Big difference 1 Some difference 2 Little difference 3 No difference at all 4 Don’t know 90

31. How much influence do you think someone like you can have over national government decisions? (Circle the applicable response.)

A lot 1 Some 2 Very little 3 None at all 4 Don’t know 90 Non-response 66 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 103

32. How much influence do you think someone like you can have over local government decisions? A lot 1 Some 2 Very little 3 None at all 4 Don’t know 90 No Answer 66 33. Which is more important when choosing who to vote for– the political party or individual candidate? (Circle the applicable response.) Political Party 1 Individual Candidate 2 34. [Do not read the responses.] What attribute do you consider most important for individuals to get elected? (Circle first response.) And which is the second most important? (Circle second response.) 1st 2nd Family background 1 1 Personal characteristics 2 2 Personal achievements 3 3 Education 4 4 Occupation 5 5 Religious piety and values 6 6 Availability and accessibility 7 7 Your personal connection 8 8 Ability to win 9 9 Introduction by the party 10 10 They have done good things/ delivered 11 11 They are committed to development 12 12 Tradition / custom / community Local leaders urged support 13 13 Other (specify______) 51 51

35. [Do not read the responses.] What attribute do you consider most important for a party to be elected to government? (Circle first response.) And which is the second most important? (Circle second response.) History of the party 1 1 Programs and proposals 2 2 Leaders of the party 3 3 Connection to religion 4 4 My family always votes for a particular party 5 5 Accomplishments of the party (education, health, etc.) 6 6 Ability to win 7 7 Other (specify______) 51 51 104 The Asia Foundation

36. What difference do you see, if any, between the different parties in the National Parliament today? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response.)

No differences 1 There are differences but cannot specify 2 Number of members in Parliament 3 Responsiveness to citizens 4 Corruption 5 Commitment to development 6 Ideology 7 Other (specify: ______) 51 Don’t know 90

37. I don’t want to know which party you support, but thinking about that party, suppose someone said: “they care about people like you.” Would you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly? (Circle the applicable response.) Agree strongly 1 Agree somewhat 2 Disagree somewhat 3 Disagree strongly 4 Don’t know 90 No Answer 66

38. Many people are not sure of the name of the Member of Parliament who represents their constituency in the National Parliament. Can you name your MP?

Name: ------Correctly said 1 Incorrectly said 2 Don’t know 90

39. As far as you know, has your Member of Parliament visited your community in the last year? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes, he/she has. 1 No, he/she hasn’t 2 Don’t know 90 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 105

40. Different people have different ideas about what Members of Parliament do. What do you think they do? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Participate in the National Parliament to make laws 1 Take part in discussions on national problems 2 Raise local problems in parliament 3 Take part in discussions on the quality of work of the diffe rent ministries 4 Others (specify...... ) 51 Don’t Know 90

41. Would you say you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the job your MP is doing? (Circle the applicable response.) Very satisfied 1 Fairly satisfied 2 Somewhat dissatisfied 3 Very dissatisfied 4 Don’t know 90 No Answer 66

42. Have you ever actedcont your MP for help in solving any personal or local problem? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2

43. [Do not read the responses.]Now I’d like to ask you to tell us the ways you communicate with your MP. Which way do you think would be the most effective to reach your MP? (Circle first response.) What would be the second most effective way? (Circle second response.) 1st 2nd Party activists 1 1 Personal assistants to MP 2 2 Middlemen 3 3 MP’s relatives 4 4 Regular weekly meetings 5 5 NGOs 6 6 Samity/associations 7 7 Self 8 8 Accompanied with local leader 9 9 Other (specify______) 51 51 Don’t know 90 90 106 The Asia Foundation

44. Do you know the name of your Union Parishad Chairman?

Name: ------Correctly said 1 Incorrectly said 2 Don’t know 90

45. Have you contacted your Union Parishad chairman or members during the last two years for help in solving any of your personal or local problems? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2

46. Would you say you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the job of your Union Parishad elected representatives? (Circle the applicable response.)

Very satisfied 1 Fairly satisfied 2 Somewhat dissatisfied 3 Very dissatisfied 4 Don’t know 90

Now I’d like to ask about something else. A lot of people in Bangladesh today are talking about democracy.

47. If a country is called a democracy, what does that mean to you? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s,.Multiple responses accepted)

1 Equality/equal rights/equal in law 1 2 Freedom to vote/choose MP or Leader 2 3 Rule of Law/ Law enforcement 3 4 Freedom of speech 4 5 Others (Please Specify ...... ) 51 6 Don’t know 90 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 107

48. Some people say, “To have democracy, there must be elections with more than one party competing.” Would you agree or disagree? Strongly or somewhat? (Circle the applicable response)

Agree strongly 1 Agree somewhat 2 Disagree somewhat 3 Disagree strongly 4 Don’t know 90

49. Do you think that all political parties, even the ones most people do not like, should be allowed to hold meet ings in your area? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know 90

50. Suppose a friend of yours supported a political party that most people did not like. Would you accept that, or would it end your friendship? (Circle the applicable response.)

Would accept it 1 Would end friendship 2 Not sure 3

51. To what extent do the people of your locality feel free in expressing their political opinions – very free, fairly free, somewhat not free, or not free? (Circle the applicable response.)

Very free 1 Fairly free 2 Somewhat not free 3 Not Free 4 Don’t know 90 No response 66 108 The Asia Foundation

I will read you a list of institutions. For each institution please rate its integrity according to this scale (. ----- Show card – Let respondent point institutions and scale; for the illiterate - read institutions and scales. (Circle the applicable response for each question)

62. (Please read responses.) Here is a list of different types of organizations or associations. As I mention each, please tell me if you belong to it. (If the respondent belongs to any association/group, circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Youth association 1 Student association 2 Microcredit NGO 3 NGO (advocacy, awareness & others) 4 Women’s association 5 Sports and recreational club 6 Social club 7 Trade association (samity , chamber) 8 Religious association (non-political) 9 Trade union 10 Farmer samity 11 Non-religious charity group 12 Teachers’ association 13 Writers’ / journalists’ association/ 14 professional association Mosque, temple or church 15 Other (specify: ______) 51 None 55 --- GO TO Q.65 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 109

63. (If the respondent is a member of any organization in Q.62) Have you ever participated in a meeting of the association or group you belong to? (Circle the applicable response.) Yes 1 No 2 -- GO TO Q.65 Don’t know 90 -- GO TO Q.65

64. Have you ever helped in making a decision at a meeting of an association or group you belong to? (Circle the applicable response.)

Yes 1 No 2 Don’t know 90 65. Have you ever taken part in a demonstration on any issue? Yes 1 No 2 -- GO TO Q.68

66. If yes, can you tell me what the issue was?

Political 1 Environment 2 Education 3 Health 4 Democracy 5 Other (specify______) 51

67. I’m interested in how you learned about the demonstration and kept up with events. Can you tell me from the follow list which media you use most often? (Please read responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Mobile phone (voice) 1 Mobile phone (text or SMS) 2 Social Media (facebook, whatsapp etc.) 3 Computer/internet 4 TV 5 Radio 6 Newspapers 7 Neighbors/friends/family 8 Party leaders/activists 9 Other (specify ______) 51 110 The Asia Foundation

Now I’d like to ask about something else.

68. Do you think that members of the National Parliament should be all men, mostly men, equal number of men and women, mostly women, or all women? (Circle the applicable response)

All men 1 Mostly men 2 Equal number of men and women 3 Mostly women 4 All women 5 Don’t know 90

69. (IF Previous answer is ‘all men’ or ‘mostly men’): Why do you think so? (Do not read the responses; ci rcle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Men know more than 1 Women are weak for 12 women military/police/security services Men are more 2 Women are 13 intelligent emotional/illogical/sentimental Men are better 3 Men are peace loving while 14 educated women are not Men better understand 4 Men are more experienced, 15 politics so they are more suitable Men are better at 5 Men are more courageous/ 16 managing stronger/ /work harder Men have capacity in 6 Men are religiously better 17 multidimensional educated than women activities Women do not 7 Men can work at night while 18 understand politics as women can’t well as men Women are poor in 8 Politics generally suits men 19 understanding Women hesitate to take 9 Others Specify ...... 51 action Women have to 10 perform familial responsibilities Women should stay at 11 home Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 111

70. (IF Previous answer is ‘Equal number of men and women’/‘Mostly women’/‘All women’): Why do you think so? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Women have as much to 1 offer as men Women are sufficiently 2 Women and man have 10 intelligent equal rights in politics Women are well educated 3 Women work openly 11 like their male colleagues without deceit Women understand 4 Others Specify ...... 51 politics well Don’t know 90 Women have diverse 5 capabilities Women have unique 6 capabilities Women get on with the 7 job Women are peace loving 8 Man have been in charge 9 for a long time, Women have to be given opportunities

71. Do you think a woman should make her own choice in voting, or do you think she should be advised by men in her choice? (Circle the applicable response.) Make her own choice 1 Men should advise her 2 Don’t know 90 No Answer 66

72. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the law of reserving seats for women, or does it not matter to you? (Circle t he applicable response.)

Strongly support 1 Somewhat support 2 Somewhat oppose 3 Strongly oppose 4 Doesn’t matter to me 5 Don’t know 90 112 The Asia Foundation

73. (If answer in Q:72 is Strongly support or Somewhat support), why do you support the law of reserving seats for women? (Do not read the responses; circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted.)

To help women progress 1 To promote equality with men 2 Give women confidence / power 3 Women are less aggressive / angry 4 Women’s voices in politics is important 5 Women are not equal competitors with men in politics 6 Other (specify______) 51 Don’t know 90

74. Who do you prefer as a representative of your constituency in the National Parliament – a man, a woman, or it makes no difference? (Circle the applicable response.) A man 1 A woman 2 Makes no difference 3 Don’t know 90 No response 66

75. [Do not read the responses.] How do you normally get information about what is happening in the country? (Circle first response.) Is there any other way you get information about what is happening in the country? (Circle second response.) 1st 2nd Television 1 1 Radio 2 2 Newspapers 3 3 Mobile phone 4 4 Village leaders 5 5 Imam or religious leader 6 6 Friends, family and neighbors 7 7 Bazaar 8 8 NGO 9 9 Workplace 10 10 Internet 11 11 Other (specify______) 51 51 Don’t know 90 90 No other / 55 55 Bangladesh’s Democracy: According to its People 113

76. Do you own a mobile phone? (Circle the applicable response)

Yes 1 No 2

77. How often do you use SMS, frequently, sometimes, rarely, or never? (Circle the applicable response)

Frequently 1 Sometimes 2 Rarely 3 Never 4 Can’t SMS 5 Refused 66

78. Can you access the internet from that phone? (Circle the applicable response)

Yes 1 No 2

79. Do you have a computer at home that you use to access the internet? (Circle the applicable response)

Yes 1 No 2

80. Which device do you usually use to access the internet? Circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted

Phone 1 Computer 2

81. (If yes to either or both of the previous two questions) do you ever use your phone or computer to access social media? (Circle the applicable response)

Yes 1 No 2 GO TO Q.83 114 The Asia Foundation

82. (If yes) how often? (Circle the applicable response)

Multiple times per day 1 Once per day 2 A few times per week 3 Rarely 4 Not applicable 55

83. Which platforms do you normally use to communicate online (Circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)?

Facebook 1 Whatsapp 2 Viber/ 3 Twitter 4 Skype 5 Others (Specify...... ) 51 None 55

84 If yes to Facebook or twitter, what do you use these platforms for (Circle the applicable response/s, multiple responses accepted)

Communicating with family and friends 1 To get news or educational material 2 To shop or communicate with a business 3 For entertainment 4 For political activity 5 Other (Specify...... ) 51 None 55