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The Decline in Support for Australian Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government ISSN 1328-7478 Department of the 1.1-kJ....* \' Parliamentary Library -Um.. INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES ~Jt~>~~~~&~,~...... Research Paper No.10 1998-99 The Decline in Support for Australian Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government ISSN 1328-7478 © Copyright Commonwealth ofAustralia 2001 Except to the extent of the uses pennitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any fonn or by any means including infonnation storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent of the Department of the Parliamentary Library, other than by Senators and Members ofthe Australian Parliament in the course oftheir official duties. This paper has been prepared for general distribution to Senators and Members ofthe Australian Parliament. While great care is taken to ensure that the paper is accurate and balanced, the paper is written using infonnation publicly available at the time of production. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Infonnation and Research Services (IRS). Advice on legislation or legal policy issnes contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Readers are reminded that the paper is not an official parliamentary or Australian govermnent document. IRS staff are available to discuss the paper's contents with Senators and Members and their staff but not with members ofthe public. Published by the Department ofthe Parliamentary Library, 200I INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES Research Paper No. 10 1998-99 The Decline in Support for Australian Major Parties and the Prospect of Minority Government Scott Bennett Politics and Public Administration Group 16 February 1999 Acknowledgments I thank Cathy Madden, Rob Lundie, John Warhurst and David Adams for their assistance in the writing of this paper. Inquiries Further copies ofthis publication may be purchased from the: Publications Distribution Officer Telephone: (02) 6277 2720 Information and Research Services publications are available on the Pariinfo database. On the Internet the Department ofthe Parliamentary Library can be found at: http://www.aph.gov.aullibrary/ A list ofIRS publications may be obtained from the: IRS Publications Office Telephone: (02) 6277 2760 Contents Major Issues i Introduction 1 The Decline in Support for the Major Parties 1 House ofRepresentatives Elections 1 Senate Elections 3 Explaining the Loss ofVoter Support .4 Long-term Factors 6 Scepticism about Government 6 Postmaterialism 7 Short-term Factors 7 Government Performance 7 Policy 8 Probity 9 Denunciation ofGovernment 10 The Consequences ofa Decline in Major Party Votes 11 Reliance on Preferences 11 Election ofNon-Major Party MPs 11 Senate Results 15 The Future 15 Endnotes 17 Bibliography 21 Appendix: Party votes House ofRepresentatives elections 1949-98 23 List ofTables Table 1: Major party first preference votes (House ofRepresentatives) 2 Table 2: 'Incoming' governments 1949-96 3 Table 3: Major party first preference votes in State lower house elections 3 Table 4: Major party first preference votes (Senate) 4 Table 5: International examples ofvoter rejection ofmajor parties 6 Table 6: Non-major party House ofRepresentatives victories 1946-98 13 The Decline in Support/or the Major Parties and the Prospect a/Minority Government Major Issues There has been a significant fall in voter support for the Labor, Liberal and National parties in both Commonwealth and State elections-in 1949 the three major parties managed to secure 96.1 per cent ofthe House ofRepresentatives vote; in 1998 that figure had fallen to 79.6 per cent. The four decades from the 1950s produced average major party House votes in excess of 90 per cent, whereas the elections of the 19908 have seen an average vote ofless than 85 per cent, with the 1998 total being the lowest major party vote since 1943. In 1990 the Hawke Government's winning first preference tally of 39.4 per cent was the lowest since the introduction of preferential voting in 1919 and the 39.5 per cent vote for the Howard Government in 1998 was the second-lowest. The Howard Government had the lowest 'incoming' vote since 1931. The picture is even clearer in Senate elections. Apart from the fact that Australians invariably cast fewer major party votes in Senate than in House of Representatives elections, every decade since the introduction of proportional representation in 1949 has seen a lower Senate vote than in the decade before. In the elections of 1990 and 1996 nearly one Senate voter in five took the minor party or independent path, while one­ quarter ofvoters did so in 1998. This decline in support for major parties bears a marked similarity to the decline in voter support for major parties in other Western nations. Overseas and Australian research suggests that there are a number of factors that explain it. Among long-term factors, an increasing scepticism about government is combined with a rejection of the gladiatorial nature of party politics. Research has also pointed to the growth of what have been labelled 'postmaterialist' attitudes among younger voters, who are said to be more concerned with social issues than the economic issues that dominated their parents' thinking. Government concerns with managing the economy do not weigh as heavily with such voters as protection ofthe environment. Short-term factors that weaken voter support include rising doubts about the ability of government to deliver what it promises, as well as a frustration over occasions when governments and opposition are saying the same thing-as, for example, over gnn control in Australia-and ignoring or rejecting all contrary views. Finally, the revelations of the rash ofmedia stories suggesting a lack ofprobity in government and among politicians has caused much voter disillusionment. The Decline in Supportfor the Major Parties and the Prospect ofMinority Government What might be the consequences ofdeclining voter support for major parties? In the short­ term the decline has produced a greater major party reliance on preferences from independents and minor parties. The past two decades has seen a marked increase in the number ofHouse ofRepresentatives seats decided on preferences. Over the longer haul, if the major party vote continues to decline there must come a time when the number of major party MHRs will begin to decline. Analysis of the thirteen occasions since 1945 when non-major party candidates were elected to the House of Representatives, suggests that this will begin to occur when such candidates are able to get about one-third of first preferences votes. The election or near-election of a significant number of non-major party MHRs in the 1990s suggests that the changing nature of Australian voting behaviour may well produce a minority government in the near future, reflecting the appearance of minority governments in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory during the past decade. The Queensland results in the 1998 Commonwealth election are a possible sign of the future, for perhaps as little as an extra five per cent of the State-wide vote might well have seen Pauline Hanson's One Nation win House ofRepresentatives seats in that State. If Australia is heading towards the position where minority national governments become common, this trend will not be welcomed by the major parties. The problem, however, is that overseas examples suggest that the decline in voter support for major parties, once begun, is very difficult to halt. In fact, some suggest a continued decline is inevitable. The test for Australia's parties, then, is to find strategies to restore their formerly sound electoral health while they still have the chance. 11 The Decline in Supportfor the Major Parties and the Prospect ofMinority Government Introduction The election of a minority govermnent in the Queensland election of June 1998, in a contest where the recently-created Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON) party won more seats than the Liberal Party, suddenly focused attention upon an electoral outcome that has long seemed inconceivable in Australia-the possible election of a House of Representatives in which neither major grouping holds the balance of power. It is this looming threat (from the major parties' standpoint), that forms the backdrop for this Research Paper. It is the thesis ofthe paper that shifts in voting behaviour, bringing about significant minor party and independent electoral successes of the past decade, may well be causing significant change in Australian parliaments, to the extent that ifthey continue, Australia may be faced with the prospect ofhaving its first minority national govermnent since the Menzies, Fadden and Curtin Govermnents of 1940--43. The Decline in Support for the Major Parties House of Representatives Elections House of Representatives elections have long shown a very high voter support for the major parties-only three of the seventeen House of Representatives elections between 1949 and 1987 produced a combined major party vote (ALP+Liberal+National) below 90 per cent. In the nineties, however, the combined major party vote has fallen to unprecedentedly low levels: in 1949 it was 96.1 per cent, whereas in 1998 it was 79.6 per cent. The decline can be illustrated if we look at the elections held over the past five decades (Table 1 and Appendix). 1 The Decline in Supportfor the Major Parties and the
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