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49Nurulhuda Zakaria.Pdf Kent Academic Repository Full text document (pdf) Citation for published version Zakaria, Nurulhuda Binti (2017) Long-term population ecology of the great crested newt in Kent. Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) thesis, University of Kent,. DOI Link to record in KAR https://kar.kent.ac.uk/77422/ Document Version UNSPECIFIED Copyright & reuse Content in the Kent Academic Repository is made available for research purposes. Unless otherwise stated all content is protected by copyright and in the absence of an open licence (eg Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher, author or other copyright holder. Versions of research The version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version. Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite the published version of record. Enquiries For any further enquiries regarding the licence status of this document, please contact: [email protected] If you believe this document infringes copyright then please contact the KAR admin team with the take-down information provided at http://kar.kent.ac.uk/contact.html Title: Long-term population ecology of the great crested newt in Kent Abstract: Climate change has been recognized as one of the causes of global amphibian population declines. Amphibians may be particularly susceptible to climatic changes, as a result of their ectothermic life style and dependence on moisture. Climatic factors may affect amphibian population dynamics deterministically or stochastically, and can act at both local and regional levels. Using capture-mark- recapture (CMR) methods, population dynamics of great crested newts over two decades were compared between two separate populations in Canterbury, Kent in order to explore local and regional drivers of population change. Accurate individual identification is a basic assumption of capture-mark-recapture methods. A comparison of manual and computer-assisted photo identification programs verified that the spot patterns of individual newts did not change significantly through time, and were sufficiently varied to reliably identify individual newts. At a metapopulation located within an agricultural landscape, capture-mark- recapture modelling revealed variations in survival, detectability, and population size between years. Low annual survival of adult newts was related to mild, wet winters which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Therefore, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Regardless of this regional effect, the four subpopulations were generally asynchronous in their dynamics, but the persistence of the metapopulation depended on a single source pond that was the smallest water body within the system. At a further population two miles away, survival since 2001 was constant and high every year despite mild, wet winters. Management practised through draining and refilling the ponds did have an apparent effect on the number of newts captured over the subsequent years. Population increase could be due to the decrease in predatory invertebrates following pond desiccation and a subsequent increase in recruitment levels. Body condition may be linked to the survival of amphibians. However, there was no influence of climatic conditions on the body condition at either of the populations studied. Nevertheless, body condition was related to survival at one of the populations, and body condition was lower in ponds with high densities of newts. Consequently, the persistence of the two populations relies on a combination of (1) local, population-specific factors - such as population density and pond desiccation, and (2) regional factors, such as climate that affect recruitment and survival from each pond. However, conservation actions at the local scale may offset reduced larval recruitment and adult survival at the regional scale. Word count / number of pages: 55,273/ 208 Year of submission: 2019 Academic school /centre: School of Anthropology and Conservation Long-Term Population Ecology of the Great Crested Newt in Kent Nurulhuda Binti Zakaria Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy July 2017 The Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, England ABSTRACT Climate change has been recognized as one of the causes of global amphibian population declines. Amphibians may be particularly susceptible to climatic changes, as a result of their ectothermic life style and dependence on moisture. Climatic factors may affect amphibian population dynamics deterministically or stochastically, and can act at both local and regional levels. Using capture-mark- recapture (CMR) methods, population dynamics of great crested newts over two decades were compared between two separate populations in Canterbury, Kent in order to explore local and regional drivers of population change. Accurate individual identification is a basic assumption of capture-mark-recapture methods. A comparison of manual and computer-assisted photo identification programs verified that the spot patterns of individual newts did not change significantly through time, and were sufficiently varied to reliably identify individual newts. At a metapopulation located within an agricultural landscape, capture-mark-recapture modelling revealed variations in survival, detectability, and population size between years. Low annual survival of adult newts was related to mild, wet winters which impacted the metapopulation at the regional level. Therefore, survival varied between years but not between subpopulations. Regardless of this regional effect, the four subpopulations were generally asynchronous in their dynamics, but the persistence of the metapopulation depended on a single source pond that was the smallest water body within the system. At a further population two miles away, survival since 2001 was constant and high every year despite mild, wet winters. Management practised through draining and refilling the ponds did have an apparent effect on the number of newts captured over the subsequent years. Population increase could be due to the decrease in predatory invertebrates following pond desiccation and a subsequent increase in recruitment levels. Body condition may be linked to the survival of amphibians. However, there was no influence of climatic conditions on the body condition at either of the populations studied. Nevertheless, body condition was related to survival at one of the populations, and body condition was lower in ponds with high densities of newts. Consequently, the persistence of the two populations relies on a combination of (1) local, population-specific factors - such as population density and pond desiccation, and (2) regional factors, such as climate that affect recruitment and survival from each pond. However, conservation actions at the local scale may offset reduced larval recruitment and adult survival at the regional scale. i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would firstly, like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Richard Griffiths for his invaluable time and ongoing support throughout this project. He has been kind and always come with great suggestions and guidance along the way. I would like to thank Dr. Joseph Tzanopolous, for his kind support and encouragement, and in particular for taking the time to guide me through the final thesis writing. Many thanks to Dr. Rachel McCrea for her useful advice in relation to program MARK. I would like to extend my gratitude to the Malaysia Ministry of Higher Education and Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, that without whom this project and much of my academic career over the past few years would not have been possible. I would like to thank to the numerous field students and volunteers of which there are too many to name, who have collected and collated the data from both the sites surveyed over the last 20 years. Exceptional gratitude to all my fellow DICE friends - Andy, Aydan, Aziz, Ben, Debbie, Dimitrious, Gail, Helena, Izabela, Jim, Jinks, Lydia, Leonel, Moacir, Samia, Tristan, and Rob. Thank you for your encouragement throughout my time at DICE. Many thanks to Faeiqah, Hafizah, Ismatul, Munirah and Salahuddin for the moral and emotional support that you have provided me during my time here. Special thanks to my family at home whose continuous encouragement have made me come this far. I would like to thank my very patient life partner, Azwan for being my voice of reason, for his love and companionship and all round support throughout my endeavours. Lastly and by no means least, to my life-coach, my late father Zakaria Bin Ngah: because I owe it all to you. Many Thanks! ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ........................................................................................................................ i Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... iii List of Tables .............................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ............................................................................................................. xi CHAPTER: 1.0 General Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 1.1 Threatened Amphibians
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