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ISAB Climate Change Report ISAB 2007-2 Independent Scientific Advisory Board Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife May 11, 2007 ISAB Climate Change Report ISAB 2007-2 Independent Scientific Advisory Board for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Columbia River Basin Indian Tribes, and National Marine Fisheries Service 851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100 Portland, Oregon 97204 [email protected] ISAB Members Robert Bilby, Ph.D., Ecologist at Weyerhaeuser Company. Susan Hanna, Ph.D., Professor of Agriculture and Resource Economics at Oregon State University. Michael Healey, Ph.D., Lead Scientist, CALFED Bay-Delta Program. Nancy Huntly, Ph.D., Professor of Wildlife Biology at Idaho State University. Stuart Hurlbert, Ph.D., Professor of Biology and Director, Center for Inland Waters at San Diego State University. Roland Lamberson, Ph.D., Professor of Mathematics and Director of Environmental Systems Graduate Program at Humboldt State University. Colin Levings, Ph.D., Scientist Emeritus and Sessional Researcher, Centre for Aquaculture and Environmental Research, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada. David Montgomery, Ph.D., Professor of Geomorphology at the University of Washington. William Pearcy, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Oceanography at Oregon State University. Thomas P. Poe, M.S., Consulting Fisheries Scientist, formerly with the U.S. Geological Survey. Peter Smouse, Ph.D., Professor of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources at Rutgers University. Ad Hoc Member Nathan Mantua, Ph.D., Associate Director of the Center for Science in the Earth System, Climate Impacts Group Principal, and Research Associate Professor, University of Washington Staff Erik Merrill, ISAB and ISRP Coordinator, Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Cover graphic adapted from the University of Washington Climate Impact Group’s graphic included as Figure 10 in this report. ISAB 2007-2 CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................III IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISH AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN ............................. III INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE IN COLUMBIA BASIN PLANNING.............................................................................. VI MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ................................................................................................................ VI INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................1 THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING..............................................2 THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT ........................................................................................................................................2 HUMAN CAUSED CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION -- GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLS......................3 INDICATORS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE...............................................................6 EXPECTED IMPACTS OF HUMAN-CAUSED INCREASES IN THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT .......................................................................................................................................................................8 EXPECTED REGIONAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST............12 IMPACTS ON SNOW PACK, STREAM FLOW AND WATER TEMPERATURE ..................................................................15 CHANGES IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ................................................................................................................17 What determines the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change?.....................................................17 The Predicted Patterns of Change in Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Columbia River Basin .............................22 EFFECTS ON TRIBUTARY HABITAT ..........................................................................................................................29 Egg Incubation and Fry Emergence ..................................................................................................................33 Spring/Summer Rearing.....................................................................................................................................34 Overwinter Survival ...........................................................................................................................................35 EFFECTS IN THE MAINSTEM.....................................................................................................................................36 Physical Effects..................................................................................................................................................36 Biological Effects – Juvenile Salmonids ............................................................................................................38 Biological Effects – Adult Salmonids.................................................................................................................43 Biological Effects – Other Species.....................................................................................................................45 EFFECTS IN THE ESTUARY .......................................................................................................................................47 Possible Changes in Oceanographic and Hydrological Conditions in the Estuary...........................................47 Biological Responses .........................................................................................................................................52 Effects on Estuarine Restoration Projects .........................................................................................................57 EFFECTS IN THE OCEAN ...........................................................................................................................................57 Climate Variability.............................................................................................................................................57 Biological Impacts .............................................................................................................................................63 Stratification ......................................................................................................................................................64 Wind-driven Upwelling ......................................................................................................................................66 Columbia River Salmon .....................................................................................................................................68 Pelagic Community............................................................................................................................................69 Ocean Acidification............................................................................................................................................71 Summary of Ocean Impacts ...............................................................................................................................72 INTEGRATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON SALMONIDS ......................................................................73 INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO RESTORATION PLANNING ............................................76 MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ..................................................................................................82 GENERAL STRATEGIES.............................................................................................................................................83 COMMUNITY RESPONSES TO CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; A MITIGATION CAUTION........................84 POSSIBLE ACTIONS TO REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ..................................................................................85 MITIGATION OPTIONS FOR THE MAINSTEM, ESTUARY, AND PLUME........................................................................86 i ISAB 2007-2 CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT MITIGATING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE OCEAN....................................................................................90 THE ROLE OF THE NPCC IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...........90 KEY FINDINGS........................................................................................................................................................91 RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................................................................................95 REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................................................................98 APPENDIX A. GLOSSARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TERMS.......................................................................123 ii ISAB 2007-2 CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Executive Summary Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. Evidence includes increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the
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