book reviews No need to worry about the future Environmentally, we are told, ‘things are getting better’.

The Skeptical Environmentalist: — for example, the claim that the evidence malnourished in the region — as well as Measuring the Real State for pollution at New York’s Love Canal was those whom fate will spare through their of the World “jaded”. At other times it seems fictional. death from the myriad consequences of by Bjørn Lomborg “Scientific luminaries such as Harvard poverty (including AIDS) — are surely Cambridge University Press: 2001, 515 pp. biologist E. O. Wilson and Stanford biolo- inconsistent with the first-listed “global £47.50, £17.95 gist Paul Ehrlich are the enthusiastic trend” in a chapter entitled “Things are Stuart Pimm and Jeff Harvey supporters of an ambitious plan … to move getting better”. the entire population of the US. … people Often, Lomborg misses the critical The subtitle gives the book away. It rehashes would live in small enclosed city islands.” literature in exactly the same ways as did books such as Ronald Bailey’s The True State The reference is directly attributable neither Simon. For example, consider the chapter on of the Planet (Free Press, 1995). As Bjørn to Wilson nor to Ehrlich. “Is it true?” we . It starts out with the by-now Lomborg tells us, the book’s origin was a asked them. Ehrlich: “I know of no such standard denigration of consensus estimates class he taught in 1997. The original Danish plan. If there were one, I wouldn’t support on rates and omits relevant papers version appeared a mere year later — it.” Wilson concurred. in even obvious places — including the remarkably fast, given the delays of academic Lomborg’s great optimism about paper demonstrating that Simon’s estimates publishing. It shows, too. This survey of humanity’s future shows up in the way he are three to four orders of magnitude below global environmental problems — food, presents statistics. In the hell-hole that is so everyone else’s. forests, energy, water, pollution, biodiver- much of sub-Saharan Africa, “starving The text employs the strategy of those sity, global warming — reads like a people” constituted “38 percent in 1970 … who, for example, argue that gay men aren’t compilation of term papers from one of [but only] “33 percent … in 1996. [The per- dying of AIDS, that Jews weren’t singled out those classes from hell where one has to centage is] expected to fall even further to 30 by the Nazis for extermination, and so on. fail all the students. It is a mass of poorly percent in 2010.” The absolute numbers of “Name those who have died!” demands a digested material, deeply flawed in its starving are curiously missing from these hypothetical critic, who then scorns the selection of examples and analysis. paragraphs. Roughly, the region’s popula- discrepancy between those few we know by Lomborg admires the late Julian Simon, tion doubled between 1970 and 1996. To name and the unnamed millions we infer. author of The Ultimate Resource (Princeton keep the numbers of starving constant, the Exactly repeating Simon, Lomborg juxta- University Press, 1996). Beside Simon, percentage would have had to have dropped poses the small number of named dead Voltaire’s optimistic Dr Pangloss is gloomy by more than half. The absolute numbers of species against the huge number of species and Albert Einstein a theoretical novice. Simon impressed the US political right by his assertion that we have “the technology to Those with no future feed an ever-growing population for the next 7 billion years”. Ecologists were challenged The long, curved beak of by this remarkable rejection of basic the huia (Heteralocha ecological laws. At present growth rates, the acutirostris) human mass would exceed that of the distinguishes the female biosphere within the millennium. Physicists of this species of lost should be in awe, too. Well before the allotted New Zealand bird from time, human mass would be expanding the shorter-beaked faster than the Universe. male. The bird was last Thus influenced, Lomborg begins with sighted in 1907, and its “the litany” — the list of things wrong with distinctive tail feathers, the planet, and why, when we see things his prized by the Maori and way, “things are getting better”. The litany by European trophy quotes news magazines and a book by two hunters, probably science-fiction writers, but not scientists hastened its demise. directly. No external references support Extinct Birds (new the ensuing paragraphs justifying that edition) by Errol Fuller ‘things are getting better’. Quoting the (Oxford University primary literature troubled Simon, too. Press/Cornell Like bad term papers, Lomborg’s text University Press, relies heavily on secondary sources. Out of £29.50/$49.95) tells the around 2,000 references, about 5% come huia’s story, together from news sources and 30% from web with those of other downloads — readily accessible, therefore, recently extinct bird but frequently not peer reviewed. A mere species. 1% are original papers in , half as many again come from contributors to Simon’s books. This bias towards non- peer-reviewed material over internationally reputable journals is sometimes incredible

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© 2001 Macmillan Magazines Ltd book reviews for which we have no knowledge at all. After pages of confused argument, his extinction estimate of “0.7 percent over the next 50 years” is strikingly discordant with the 10– 40% of well-known species that teeter on the brink of extinction just from human actions to date. About 2% of well-known species are already so desperately rare that we don’t know whether they do survive. Lomborg finds comfort when some are rediscovered. Like terminally ailing humans, their lingering survival does not allay fears about the unfolding epidemic. On future trends based on forest losses, his flawed examples are unoriginal. “In the US, the eastern forests were reduced … to fragments totalling just 1–2% of the original area … this resulted in the extinction of only one forest bird”. The correct percentage is close to 50%, and the number of Bleak prospect: Scott’s diligent study of the polar weather could not prepare him for what lay ahead. four, plus two seriously wounded. Those extinctions constitute 15% of the bird 1901 and 1904, and about his preparations species found only within the region for the second — his transport planning, and (the only ones at risk of global extinction). Tragic outcome of his questionable decisions. But the text DISCOVERY I VOL. They strikingly confirm the predictions focuses on the extremely cold temperatures made from the species-area models that extreme conditions experienced by Edward Wilson and his two Lomborg disparages. The Coldest March: Scott’s Fatal comrades on the Windless Bight south of An industry has arisen debunking Antarctic Expedition Ross Island, and, even more so, on the bad this book chapter by chapter. At present, By Susan Solomon weather Scott’s group encountered during OF THE THE VOYAGE it includes a website (www.anti-lomborg. their trek to the pole. We follow the group of Yale University Press: 2001. 416 pp. FROM com); a series of essays planned for $29.95, £19.95 five beyond the “H of Hell” to the “awful Scientific American; a guide for journalists Cornelia Lüdecke place”, shivering with them from blizzards documenting Lomborg’s more egregious and very low temperatures, and sharing their errors being assembled by the Union of Many books have been written about Robert hunger and thirst. The human story, which Concerned Scientists; and various published Falcon Scott’s final, ill-fated expedition to has been pieced together from the accounts pamphlets. We have provided only a Antarctica in 1910–12, where he died during of the men involved, is illuminating. sampler. the return trip from the South Pole, only a Modern weather data are used in a new But Nature instructs its reviewers to do few miles away from the nearest safe depot. It way to provide insight into the misfortune more than merely describe a book’s is well known that Scott relied on motor of the fatal journey. Scott was aware that contents; we must examine its wider impli- sledges, used weak ponies and allowed five meteorology would play a major part in cations. The only such implication we see men to go south instead of the planned four. this polar trek. He thoroughly investigated causes us to ask why Cambridge University These facts have contributed to the legend weather conditions during various trips in Press would decide to publish a hastily that Scott’s failure was a result of ineptitude. March, July and September 1911, and dis- prepared book on complex scientific issues Susan Solomon, an experienced polar covered that temperatures at the barrier (the which disagrees with the broad scientific researcher and leader of the American Ross Ice Shelf) were about 20 7F lower than consensus, using arguments too often National Ozone Expedition, shines new light at the Cape Evens base camp. A minimum supported by news sources rather than by on Scott’s tragic leadership error in not being thermometer at One Ton Camp (on the peer-reviewed publications. Certainly, able to predict the unexpected — unlike barrier) recorded a temperature of –72 7F in controversy is part of science, but extraordi- Roald Amundsen, who won the race. She 1911, whereas measurements at Cape Evens nary claims require the extraordinary analyses both published and unpublished revealed a long, ‘coreless’ winter with mean scrutiny that comes from competent peer material to show why Scott died — dis- temperatures of about –23 7F. George C. review — something that appears to be proving the criticisms of the legend. An Simpson, the expedition’s meteorologist, missing in this case. important aspect of her analysis is the predicted that Scott would have to face a Stuart Pimm is at the Center for Environmental emphasis she places on data provided by short and cold summer during his trek, with Research and Conservation, MC 5556, automatic weather stations installed close temperatures rising by 20–30 degrees during Columbia University, 1200 Amsterdam Avenue, to Scott’s route, which have been used since blizzards and falling afterwards. New York, New York 10027, USA. Jeff Harvey is 1985 to facilitate flights to the scientific Unfortunately, Scott decided to start late at the Centre for Terrestrial , Netherlands station at the South Pole. in 1911, because of the poor condition of Institute of Ecology, PO Box 40, 6666 ZG Heteren, Each chapter is introduced by modern his ponies, which should have pulled the The Netherlands. reflections of a ‘visitor’ strolling around the equipment. After the ponies collapsed, Pole Station, whose experiences are com- man-hauling the heavy sledges became an More on environmental risk analysis pared with those of Scott; the identified exhausting task. Despite this, they arrived at The Precautionary Principle: A Critical problems are addressed in the ensuing text. the pole on 17 January 1912. On their way Appraisal of Environmental Risk The first three-quarters of the book follow back, very cold temperatures caused the Assessment Scott’s expeditions chronologically. We are snow surface to become like sandpaper — by Indur M. Goklany told what his experiences taught him during the sledges could barely be moved, because Cato Institute, $17.95 his first expedition to Antarctica between there was no further melting of ice crystals

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