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Part III – Reservoir Operations Assessment: Columbia Basin Flood Control and Hydropower

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Part III – Reservoir Operations Assessment: Columbia Basin Flood Control and Hydropower Climate and Hydrology Datasets for use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies Part III – Reservoir Operations Assessment: Columbia Basin Flood Control and Hydropower Bonneville Power Administration U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Department of Energy Northwest Division, Portland District Portland, Oregon Portland, Oregon May 31, 2011 BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINSTRATION Vision Statement BPA will be an engine of the Northwest’s economic prosperity and environmental sustainability. BPA’s actions advance a Northwest power system that is a national leader in providing high reliability, low rates consistent with sound business principles, responsible environmental stewardship, and accountability to the region. We deliver on these public responsibilities through a commercially successful business. These four characteristics define our public responsibilities. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Northwestern Division Mission Statement The Northwestern Division provides engineering services and stewardship of existing water resource infrastructure, conducts water resources development, military construction, environmental protection and restoration, and emergency response operations within our assigned areas of operations to serve the Army and the Nation. On order, the Northwestern Division provides Field Force Engineering services to deployed forces or other USACE elements." Photograph on front cover: Bonneville Dam (BPA Library photo archive). Climate and Hydrology Datasets for use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies Part III – Reservoir Operations Assessment: Columbia Basin Flood Control and Hydropower Report Prepared by: Patricia Low Maler Annamalai U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division Brian Kuepper Eric Nielsen Dan Hua Bonneville Power Administration Contributions: Bruce Glabau - BPA Tony White – BPA Birgit Koehler – BPA Jennie Tran – BPA Toni Turner – Bureau of Reclamation Lori Postlethwait – Bureau of Reclamation James Barton – U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division Acknowledgements: Nancy Stephan, Bonneville Power Administration Levi Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation RMJOC Sposors Patrick McGrane, Bureau of Reclamation Rick Pendergrass, Bonneville Power Administration James Barton, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................23 2.0 Description of Reservoir Systems ............................................................................4 2.1 Mainstem Columbia River Basin .............................................................................4 2.2 Columbia River Tributaries: Kootenay, Pend Oreille and Spokane River Basins .............................................................................................................9 2.2.1 Pend Oreille Basin .....................................................................................11 2.2.2 Spokane Basin ............................................................................................12 2.3 Snake River Basin ..................................................................................................12 2.4 Non-Federal Projects ..............................................................................................14 3.0 Development of Datasets .......................................................................................14 3.1 Hydrologic Input Data ............................................................................................14 3.2 The Hybrid-Delta Scenarios ...................................................................................16 3.2.1 Annual Volumes ........................................................................................18 3.2.2 Monthly Runoff .........................................................................................20 3.2.3 Seasonal Runoff .........................................................................................23 3.2.4 Forecast and Observed Volumes ...............................................................26 3.3 The Transient Climate Projections .........................................................................28 3.4 Seasonal Runoff Shift: Summer to Winter .............................................................29 3.3 Description of AER and TSR Flood Control Datasets ...........................................33 4.0 Climate Scenarios Naming Convention .................................................................35 5.0 Description of System Flood Control ....................................................................38 5.1 Flood Control Modeling Tools. ..............................................................................39 5.2 Flood Control Assumptions ...................................................................................39 5.2.1 Evacuation Period ......................................................................................39 5.2.2 Refill ..........................................................................................................40 6.0 Flood Control Analysis ..........................................................................................43 6.1 Graphs ....................................................................................................................44 6.1.1 Mean Monthly Volume – Hybrid-Delta ....................................................44 6.1.2 Seasonal Runoff Volume Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..............................44 6.1.3 Seasonal Runoff Volume, Ten-Year Rolling Average – Transient ....................................................................................................46 May 2011 – Part III: Flood Control and Reservoir Operations Assessment i 6.1.4 Flood Control Storage Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..................................46 6.1.5 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparison – Hybrid- Delta ...........................................................................................................47 6.1.6 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparison – Transient ..................48 6.2 Columbia River at The Dalles Dam .......................................................................48 6.2.1 Mean Monthly Volume – Hybrid-Delta ....................................................48 6.2.2 Seasonal Runoff Volume Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..............................49 6.2.3 Seasonal Runoff Volume, Ten-Year Rolling Average – Transient ....................................................................................................51 6.2.4 Seasonal Runoff Volume Averages: Apr-Aug vs. Mar-Jul .......................51 6.2.5 The Dalles Summary .................................................................................55 6.3 Mica ........................................................................................................................55 6.3.1 Flood Control Storage Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..................................56 6.3.2 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Hybrid- Delta ...........................................................................................................57 6.3.3 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Transient ................59 6.3.4 Mica Summary ...........................................................................................60 6.4 Arrow .....................................................................................................................61 6.4.1 Flood Control Storage Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..................................61 6.4.2 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Hybrid- Delta ...........................................................................................................62 6.4.3 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Transient ................64 6.4.4 Arrow Summary ........................................................................................65 6.5 Grand Coulee .........................................................................................................66 6.5.1 Flood Control Storage Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..................................66 6.5.2 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Hybrid- Delta ...........................................................................................................67 6.5.3 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Transient ................69 6.5.4 Grand Coulee Summary .............................................................................70 6.6 Brownlee ................................................................................................................71 6.6.1 Mean Monthly Volume – Hybrid-Delta ....................................................71 6.6.2 Seasonal Runoff Volume Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..............................72 6.6.3 Seasonal Runoff Volume, Ten-Year Rolling Average – Transient ....................................................................................................73 6.6.4 Flood Control Storage Exceedance – Hybrid-Delta ..................................74 May 2011 – Part III: Flood Control and Reservoir Operations Assessment ii 6.6.5 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Hybrid- Delta ...........................................................................................................75 6.6.6 Flood Control April 30th Elevations Comparisons – Transient ................77 6.6.7 Brownlee Summary ...................................................................................78
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