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Paper-Wallet bitcoin-schweiz.ch . Bitcoin-Grundlagenseminar, Dienstag 24.10.2017 Funktionsweise von Blockchain und Bitcoin Bitcoin-Anwenderseminar, Dienstag, 31. Oktober 2017 Repetition und Ergänzung Grundlagen Bitcoin annehmen, weiterleiten und aufbewahren. Die konkrete Anwendung verschiedener Apps, Sicherheitsaspekte Hinweis auf häufige Fehler Spekulation mit Bitcoin und weiteren Kryptowährungen Dienstag, 7. November 2017 Grundsätze der Spekulation mit Bitcoin, Handel mit Limiten Spekulationstechniken und Anwendung von Internet-Plattformen, Aufbewahrung und eingeschränkte Verfügung von Bitcoin . bitcoin-schweiz.ch . Jürg Kradolfer Walter Dey Ökonom und Wirtschaftsprüfer Dr. sc. nat. ETH Zürich Studium der Mathematik Keltenstrasse 5 und Physik. Spezialgebiete: CH-2563 Ipsach Netzwerk-, Rechner- und Sicherheits-Technologien Probability of Duplicated Bitcoin Address • Example of 1 billion (Deutsch=Milliarde) users have 10 addresses each: • 1FJe4vovr5p53nutPL4YLo4FZfzFpojtaY • There are 2^160 or about 1,460,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible addresses • In your scenario, 1,000,000,000 people are using 10 addresses each for a total of 10,000,000,000 possible addresses • 10,000,000,000 / 2^160 should yield the probability of a collision occurring 10,000,000,000 / 2^160 = 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000684 • So the chances of a collision occurring in our scenario are approximately 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000684% © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Wallets • Software -> Desktop (Electrum, Exodus), Mobile (Bread), Online • Hardware (Ledger Nano S, Trezor, KeepKey) • Paper Wallet Storage (Private / Public Key’s) • Hot (connected via Internet to Blockchain) • Cold (isolated) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Which Wallet • Mobile or static (Desktop, Hardware, Paper) • Multicurrency or single use (Bitcoin) • Private key under local control (Desktop, Hardware, Paper, Mobile) or external (Online) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Seed Creation / Recovery with Seed • During the installation of each HD or Hardware Wallet a 12 or 24 word Seed gets created. (words from a 2048 dictionary) • Seed also used for recovery © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Master Private Key derived from Seed © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Agenda Kursentwicklung Bitcoin Aufbewahren, Datensicherheit und Datenschutz Spekulation Verhaltenspsychologie Buy-and-hold Pause Produkte/Plattformen Investitionen, Steuern, Aktuelles © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursentwicklung linear (Hype !) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursentwicklung logarithmisch (welcher Hype ?) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursentwicklung beide (welcher Hype) ? © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursschwankungen (Tone Vays) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursschwankungen 1 Preisentwicklung im 2010, Australien Julian Assange, WikiLeaks Satoshi meldete sich, es sei zu früh Sommer 2011 1 USD starker Aufstieg, Hauptgrund Senator Chuck Schumer 2-3 Minuten klagte am TV wie Drogen kaufen auf Silkroad. Bitcoin steigt auf 30 USD Anschliessen crash auf 2 USD (-90%) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursschwankungen 2 Bis Sommer 2012 Kurssteigerung von 2 USD auf 30 USD Sommer 2012 China CCTV 10 Minuten über Bitcoin, Crash auf 7 USD 2011-2013 Japan. Börse Mt. Gox (hatten Bots) diverse Pannen (Bitcoins wurden entwednet) März, Zypern Bankschliessungen, 6.75% Steuern resp .% >€ Guthaben resp. 47.5% Guthaben über 100'000.-€ © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursschwankungen 3 Oktoer o USD auf USD Silk-road-Schliessung -35% Mt. Gox hatte Probleme, China Wechselstuben übernahmen das Geschäft Angebot / Nachfrage (Menge ist stark begrenzt) November 2013 Hearing US-Senat und OK von Chinesischer Bank März 2014 Mt. Gox gerät in Konkurs Kurs pendelt bis Herbst 2015 auf rund 200 USD https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/ © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Kursschwankungen 4 Ab Herbst 2015 Bitkon-Akzeptanz steigt, Kurs steigt Ausreisser: 2. August 2016 Bitfinex gehackt, 58 mio. EUR gestohlen Kurs -18% Frühlig Kurs Fork 1.8.2017 Kurs stieg einige Tage später stark an 2.9. 4'780 am 16.9. 3'366 -30% diverse Gründe ? Segwit implementiert und aktiviert anfangs November 7'000 + 100% © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Aufbewahrung / Datensicherheit • Cold Storage (USB Device, Paper Wallet) • 2-Faktor-Identifizierung z.B. Google • Bitaddress.org, BIP38-verschlüsseltes Passwort: nur einige Wallets unterstützen das, allenfalls PK vorgängig extrahieren. Multi sig (bis 15 Schlüssel möglich) Aufteilen des PrivKey (Halbierung = exponentiell unsicherer) • Schlüssel verändern, unauffällig aufbewahren, sicher aufbewahren © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Paper-wallet - Seite https://www.bitaddress.org aufrufen, ev. lokal speichern. In sicherer Umgebung erstellen, d.h. Rechner und Drucker ohne Netzwerk- und ohne Internetanschluss! Bevorzugt Linux/Ubuntu. Zusätzliches Passwort ist möglich. Private key in Banksafe legen und Bitcoins auf die public-address transferieren. Kryptowährungen Original = Bitcoin Diverse Klone (BCC, LTC, DASH, Gold, 2X) Komplexe ETH und dessen Klone (z.B. Neo) IOTA (andersartig) Ripple (nicht öffentlich) © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation Verhaltenspsychologie • Angst vor Verlust = es ist zu teuer, ich kaufe nicht • Angst vor Verlust = es ist gestiegen, ich verkaufe jetzt © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation • Langfristiger Entscheid aus Überzeugung wieviel will ich anlegen: % meines Vermögens in CHF • Gestaffelt kaufen, wenn Betrag erreicht ist stoppen wenn Kurs fällt kaufen https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Kaufen 1 • Legen Sie ein Maximum fest das sie zu investieren bereit sind, beispielsweise 1% ihres Vermögens. Seien sie massvoll. Diese Summe, nennen wir sie 100, teilen sie in zwei Teile, beispielsweise 60 und 40. Mit den 60 kaufen sie über einen längeren Zeitraum (z.B. ein Jahr) in fixen Etappen z.B. bei bity.com Bitcoin. Tun Sie das unabhängig von der Entwicklung des Kurses. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Kaufen 2 • Falls der Bitcoin-Kurs so weit steigt, dass ihre Bitcoins einen Wert von 100 (ihr festgelegte Investionssumme) erreichen, drosseln oder stoppen Sie die Käufe. Das Ziel ist ja bereits erreicht. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Kaufen 3 Sollte der Bitcoinkurs eines Tages stark fallen, was schon oft vorgekommen ist, können sie vom zweiten Teil, in unserem Beispiel von den 40, mit einen Teil davon weitere Bitcoin zukaufen. Wenn die Bitcoins nochmals stark an Wert verlieren, kaufen sie wiederum Bitcoin hinzu. Verliert der Bitcoin nochmals stark an Wert, kaufen sie wiederum hinzu, und so weiter. Lassen Sie sich von ihrer Angst nicht unterkriegen, halten Sie an Ihrer Strategie fest und bereuen Sie ihr ursprüngliches Vertrauen nicht. Haben sie Geduld. Der Kurs kann weiter fallen, sie halten an ihrer Strategie fest, oder drosseln die Käufe, aber kehren sie die Strategie keinesfalls grundsätzlich um! © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Kaufen 4 - Traden • Wenn die Spannung suchen: Halten sie einen Bruchteil der zweiten Summe, in unserem Beispiel sind das ungefähr 10, bei einer Börse an der 7 Tage/24 Stunden gehandelt wird und wo man mit Limiten, kaufen und verkaufen kann, z.B. ei krake.o. Mehr dazu siehe i ähste Ashitt Traden. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Traden 1 • Am Vernünftigsten scheint mir die folgende Straegie zu sein: Kryptowährungen sicher aufbewahren und geduldig warten. Falls sie ihr Investitionsziel beinahe erreicht haben und nicht weiterhin systematisch hinzukaufen sondern handeln wollen, sei es aus Spass oder mit reiner Gewinnabsicht, finden sie im Folgenden eine Möglichkeit wie sie das tun können. Bleiben sie aber immer überlegt und massvoll! • Erteilen sie mehrere limitierte Kaufaufträge, mit z.B. um 15% abnehmenden Limiten. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Traden 2 • Beim ersten ausgeführten Kauf erteilen Sie einen Verkaufsauftrag mit einer Limite von beispielsweise 15% über ihrem Kaufpreis. Wird der Verkauf ausgeführt, können sie wiederum einen Verkaufsauftrag mit wiederum 15% erhöhter Limite erteilen, oder einen neuen Kaufauftrag mit einer 15% tieferen Limite als der getätigte Verkauf erteilen falls dies nicht bereits erfolgt ist. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Traden 3 • Einige Plattformen handeln wie erwähnt an 7 Tagen zu 24 Stunden. Einmal angenommene Aufträge werden automatisch ausgeführt, ausser sie löschen diese vorher. Eine Voraussetzung ist meist, dass alle Aufträge bereits im Moment der Erteilung gedeckt sind. D.h., man muss EUR oder USD deponieren um alle möglichen Käufe bezahlen zu können. Ebenso muss ein Bitcoinguthaben vorhanden sein um alle erteilten Verkäufe abwickeln zu können. • → Diese Strategie ka dazu führe, dass sie ihre iestierte Sue, bei lange anhaltendem Preiszerfall laufend erhöht wird. Sie kaufen somit in einem fallenden Markt. Sind sie wirklich bereit dazu? → Diese Strategie ka auh, ei lage steigede Preise dazu führe, dass sie ihren Bestand vollständig liquidieren. Wollen Sie das wirklich? © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Verkaufen 1 • Verkaufen sie nicht zu früh und verkaufen sie nicht aus Not. Wenn sie ihr Engagement massvoll halten, sinkt die Gefahr, dass sie dies tun werden. Wenn sie beginnen systematisch zu verkaufen und der Preis steigt, sollten sie nicht wieder zukaufen sondern zufrieden sein mit dem realisierten Erfolg. © bitcoin-schweiz.ch Spekulation https://bitcoin-schweiz.ch/spekulation/ Verkaufen 2 • Fassen sie vor jedem Kauf
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