MANAGEMENT AND HISTORY OF FIRE iN WABAKIMI PROVINCIAL PARK, NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
Jennifer L. Beverly
A thesis submitted in confonnity with the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Forestry Graduate Department of Forestry University of Toronto
O Copyright by Jennifer L. Beverly 1998 National Library Bibliothéque nationale du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services seMces bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A ON4 OttawaON K1A ON4 Cansda cawa
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The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantid extracts kom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Management and History of Fie in Wabakimi Provincial Park, Northwestern Ontario
Jennifer L. Beverly
Master of Science in Forestry 1998
Graduate Department of Forestry, University of Toronto
Abstract
Ontario's Wabakimi Provincial Park was recentiy expanded to protect a portion of naturally finctioning boreal forest. A fire management strategy reflecting the natural role of fire dl soon be developed. Mitigation of negative impacts resulting from fire-reintroduction requires knowledge of ecosystern charactenstics, £ire processes, and associated historical human influences. Historical fire records provide insight into these issues in this century, and stand age-class distributions facilitate assessments over several centuries. Historical reports show area bumed declined between 1930 and 1970, followed by dramatic increases in recent decades. A stand age-class distribution analysis based on the negative exponentiai mode1 of fire history revealed statistically significantly different fire cycles before (37.0) and after
(359.7) 1928. However, hazard rate estimates show an almost linear dectine between 1858 and i948, suggesting considerable naturai temporal variation. This analysis shows that management for specific historical fire cycles in Wabakimi may not be justzed ecologically, econornically, or socially. Acknowledgments
1 gratefiilly acknowledge the assistance provideci to me by my supe~sorycornmittee members, Dr. J. Malcolm and Dr. K. KNght, with special thanks for the support and guidance provided by my supe~sorDr. D.L. Martell, whose consistent demonstration of professionaiism, enlightened insight, and faimess, was an ongoing source of motivation.
1 thank the many skilled professionals at the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources who graciously provided their time and expertise. most notably: Nancy Scott, Dr. Geny Racey,
Dave Archibaid, Bob Johnson, Bill Laidlaw, Rob Davis, Paul Ward, and Al Tithecott.
1 aiso thank Sun Hua for her help in extracting data, and my colleagues/fnends Kazi Islam,
Greg Williams, and Warren Mabee for their example, encouragement, and interest.
Finally, 1 thank my supeMsors and colleagues at the Ranger Lake Initial Attack Base, Sault
Ste. Marie Fire Management Area, who supporteci my exposure to the fascinating complexities of fire. ...phare too mail in areu CO relegate to the forces of nature thshoped a continent. Mimagement decisiom of this kind Mvolve judgmmt followed by action. They me not resolved simply by allowing nafural ecosystem procesres to oprate.
A Starker Leopold', 1983
Letter hmA. Starker Leopold to Boyd Evison, Supuiatendemt, Sequoia aod Kings Canyon Nationai Parks. California, June 9, 1983.
iv Table of Contents
Abstract Acknowledgments List of Figures List of Tables
Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Description of Wabakimi Provincial Park 2.1 Ecological Features 2.1.1 Eco-regional Description 2.1.2 Ecological Role of Fire 2.2 Human Influences 2.2.1 Pre-Suppression Era (i) First Nations' Activitics (ü) Exploration and the Fur Trade (iii) Setdement
2.2.2 Suppression Era
(i) Evolution of Fire Suppression Poiicy (ii) Evolution of Suppression Force (iii) Transition to the Park Era (iv) Ecological Impacts of Fire Suppression 2.23 Park Era 2.2.4 Quantifjing Human Influences (i) Arca Bumed (ii) Suppression Force (iii) Ignition Source 2.3 Weather 2.3.1 Relationship Between Fire and Weather in Wabakimi 2.3.2 Data 2.3 -3 Methods 2.3.4 Results and Discussion 2.4 Surnmary and Implications for Fire Management in Wabakirni Chapter 3. Stand Age-Class Distribution Analysis 3.1 The Negative Exponential Model of Fire History 3.1.1 Model Developments 3.1 -2 Model Application 3.1 -3 Methodologid Issues (i) Flammability and Age (ii) Homogeneity Criteria (iü) Censorhg 3.1-4 Methodologid Innovations 3.2 Data 3.3 Methods 3 -3.1 Traditionai Methodology 3.3.2 New Methodology (i) Parameter Estimation (ii) Test of Signif~cance (iii) Confidence Intervals (iv) Identification of the Change Point 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Traditional Methodology 3.4.2 New Methodology 3 -4.3 Methodological Issues 3.5 Summary and Implications for Fire Management in Wabakimi
Chapter 4. Fire Management in Protected Areas 4.1 Theoretical Issues 4.1.1 Determinhg the Primary Objective (i) Natural Fin Cycles (ii) Nahiral Landscape Mosaic (iii) Alternative Objectives 4.2.1 Incorporating Secondary Objectives 4.2 Practical Issues 4.3 Sornmary and Implication for Fire Management in Wabakimi Chapter 5. Discussion and Recommendations 5.1 Discussion 5 -2 Recornmendations
Literature Cited List of Figures
Figure 1. Wabakuni Provincial Park, Northwestem Ontario
Figure 2. Wabakimi Provincial Park Location in Rowe's (1972) Forest Regions and Sections
Figure 3. Wabakimi Provincial Park Location in HiUs' (1959) Site Regions and Districts
Figure 4. Wabakimi Provincial Park Land Type Classification 15
Figure 5. Wabakimi Provincial Park Species Composition 15
Figure 6. Boundaries of Ontario Forest Resource Inventory (FM) Management Units (MU) in Wabakirni Provincial Park 17
Figure 7a-e. Wabakimi Provincial Park Land Type Composition by Management Unit 18
Figure 8a-e. Wabakimi Provincial Park Species Composition by Management Unit 19
Figure 9. Ontario Fire Management Zones 30
Figure 10. Wabakirni Provincial Park Boundaries 1983 and 1998 42
Figure 1 1. Wabakirni Provincial Park Average ~nnualArea Bumed by Decade 47
Figure 12. Ontario Average Annual Area Bumed by Decade 48
Figure 13. Wabakirni Percent of Ontario Area Bumed by Decade 49
Figure 14. Minimum Rectangle Study Area 52
Figure 15. Annual Average Response Times: Wabakimi vs. Surrounding Areas 54
Figure 16. Ratio of Annual Average Response Times 54
Figure 17. Spearman Correlation Between Area Burned and DMC 62
Figure 1 8. Time-Since-Fire Distribution 76
Figure 19. WabakiM Provincial Park Age-Class Distribution 102
Figure 20. Wabakimi Provincial Park The-Since-Fire Distribution vüi Figure 2 1. Hypothetical A(t)
Figure 22. Hypothetical Xj
Figure 23. Hypothetical Sj
Figure 24. Masters ( 1 990) Ij
Figure 25. Masters (1990) Sj
Figure 26. Wabakimi Xj
Figure 27. Wabakimi Sj List of Tables
Table 1. Percentage of Wabakimi Provincial Park Contained in Each MU
Table 2. Response Times: Wabakimi Provincial Park vs. Surrounding Areas
Table 3. Ontario Fire Weather Index Classes
Table 4. Spearman Correlations Between Area Bumed and Weather
Table 5. Results from Larsen and MacDonald (1995) and Balling et al. (1992)
Table 6. Area with Negative Ages Due to Compilation Date Adjustment
Table 7. Surnmary of Wabakimi Provincial Park Pire Cycle Estimates
Table 8. Surnmary of Fire Cycles fiom Previous Studies Chapter 1 Introduction
Wabakimi Provincial Park is located approximately 300 km north of Thunder Bay, just
northwest of Lake Nipigon, in the boreal forest region of northwestern Ontario (Figure 1).
The original designation of the area as a Park occurred on Iune 2, 1983 as a result of
Ontario's Strategic Land Use Planning (SLUP) process. In 1992, the Ontario Ministry of
Natural Resources (OMNR) initiated a fornial review of the original Wabakimi Provincial
Park boundary. Officia1 adoption of the new boundary occurred on luly 25, 1997, increasing
the Park's size fiom 155,000 to 892,061 hectares, and making it the second largest provincial
park in the province and one of the largest boreal forest parks in the world.
The park expansion was premised on the objective of protecting a naturally functioning
remnant of the boreal fonst ecosystem. It has been explicitly stated that fire will have a
strong ecological role in Wabakimi Provincial Park (referred to hereafter as Wabakimi or the
Park). A Fire Management Strategy will be developed and implemented which reflects the natural role of fire in the boreal forest (OMNR 1996). According to the OMMX (1996:4):
"While fire suppression will occur in sorne situations, especially where there is risk of loss of hurnan life or serious property damage, wildfues in many situations will be allowed to bu."
Fire has a natural and critically important role to play in Wabakimi with regard to ecosystem fùnctioning (Heinselman 1971, Bonan and Shugart 1989, Kronberg and Fyfe 1992, Scotter Figure 1. Wabakimi Provincial Park, Northwestern Ontario.
Area
1972, Minshall et al. 1989, Knight et al. l985), as well as species composition, successional patterns, and the landscape mosaic (Johnson 1992, Robinson 1974, Frelich and Reich 1995,
Bergeron 199 1). This role has existed in the presence of humans for approxirnately 8,000 years. Human influences on the role of fire in Wabakimi cm be divided into three eras, narnely: Pre-Suppression @re-1928), Suppression ( 1 928- 1982), and the Park Era ( 1 983- present). Europeans may have altered the human-fire relationship in the Pre-Suppression Era by affiing First Nations' activities, and by introducing new sources of ignition, however,
massive manipulation of fire by humans most aeiy ocairred with the advent of effective fire
suppression.
The potential impacts of fire suppression on the ecological role of fire in Wabakimi are
numerous. Fuel accumulation resulting in u~aturallycatastrophic fires is the most cornmonly
cited potential impact (Euler 1985, Goodman 1985, Arno and Brown 1989, Wein and Moore
1977, Heinselrnan 197 1, Clark 1988, Baker 1994, Neuenschwander 1996). Risks to species
persistence (Bergeron 199 1) and landscape diversity (Suffling 1990) have also been identified.
Given the capacity of fire suppression to alter ecosystem conditions, the reintroduction of fire
into suppression-modified landscapes may represent an additional, cumulative human influence
on the ecosystem with uncertain and complex implications, rather than a simple remediation
process.
In recent yeats, management for the natural role of fire in parks has emerged as a fundamental component of wildemess conservation. Theoretically, pennitting fire to burn fieely in certain designated areas may be questionable due to the nature of fire processes; the nature of parks as scarce resources; and the influence of humans. Potential negative impacts of reintroducing fire include succession to unnaturd species (Bergeron 199 1, Frelich and Reich L 999, or the creation of rock barrens (Gordon 1979, Parks Canada 1978). The mitigation of potential negative impacts associated with a depmre fiom fire exclusion strategies requires knowledge of fk processes and associated historical human influences, such that their
removal can be rendered benign.
Unfomuiately, an understanding of fire processes, and the human impacts on them, is
complicated by the nature of fire. In the boreal forest of northwestem Ontario, intense stand-
replacing crown fies eliminate the evidence needed to establish fire histories fkom fire scars
(SuMing 1990, Yarie 1981, McCune 1983, Turner and Romme 1994, Johnson 1992), and the
obligotrophicl lakes inhibit fie history analysis fiom charcoal in lake sedirnents (Suffling
1990). Consequently, fie histories must be derived fiom the analysis of stand-ages
combined with anecdotal information evident in historical reports. Fire history methods are currently incapable of revealing the nature of fire over extremely long time-penods (Le., thousands of years), over which large-scale ecosystem processes, such as weather. are known to operate. However, historical fie records provide insight into the nature of fire and the impacts of humans in this century, and stand age-class distributions can be used to make assessments for the past two or three centuries.
The role of fie in a given ecosystem is generally described in terms of its fie regime, which is composed of the historical averages of three attributes: intensity, depth of bum, and fiequency or cycle (Van Wagner 1983). The fie fiequency or cycle of an area is particularly important with regard to fie management in parks because it cm be examined for changes over tirne. Changes in the fire cycle, which coincide with the introduction of specific
l Tenn applied to a body of waia low in nuûients and produaivity (Smith 1986). Lake varves necessary for establishing fie history from charcoai in lake sedunents are not fonned in obligotrophic lakes (Sunling 1990). historical human influences, may provide an indication of human impacts on fie. Fire
frequency cm be interpreted as the proportion of a designated forest management unit or
study mathat can be expected to burn each year (Johnson and Gutsell 1994). Its inverse, the
fire cycle, is the average period of time between fires in the same stand, or the average length
of therequired to burn an area equal to the study area (Ward and Tithecott 1993).
The exponential age-class distribution model of fie history uses the stand age-class
distribution of an area to infer temporal changes in the fw cycle (Heinsehan 1973, Van
Wagner 1978, Johnson 1979, Johnson and Van Wagner 1985 and Johnson and Gutsell 1994).
The model has been applied extensively in recent years to assess the impacts of humans and ciimate on fire cycles in areas that have not been disturbed by logging (Masten 1990,
Johnson et al. 1990, McCune 1983, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 199 1, Power 1996).
Pro blems with the mode 1 inc lude: the assumption of age- independent flammabi lity ( Van
Wagner 1978, Fryer and Johnson 1988, Johnson et al. 1990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1,
Bergeron 1997, Yarie 1981, Romme and Despain 1989); the assumption of spatially and temporally stable fire cycles (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994, Chnstensen 1988,
Bunting 1996, Suffling 1990, Clark 1989, Boychuck et al. 1997); and censoring due to the mortaiity of trees (Finney 1995, Fox 1989).
Reed et al. (1998) have developed a new methodology based on an overdispersed survival model with associated quasi-likelihood function, as weil as an unbiased method of selecting change points. This new methodology improves traditional methods, which do not consider cumulative hazard or fire contagion; involve selection bias; and faii to provide for confidence intervals and tests for significant differences. While fin! cycles can be quafltified, the relevance of these historicai £ire cycles to the fuhire of Wabakimi must be viewed in light of the daunting theoretical and practical issues that characterke fie management in protected areas. Theoretically, defuiing the desired objective is problematic, while the practical attainment of this objective is complicated by ecological, operational, and policy realities.
The reintroduction of fire into a park should be premised on the results of long-terni studies of the ecology and fire processes in the area, and the human influences on them, in order to delineate objectives and means of attaining them. However, knowledge of historical fire cycles provides a starting point nom which fire management planning can begin. If fire processes are assurned to follow long-term cycles driven by weather, then changes in the fire cycle before and after a specific date may simply indicate the recent range of natural variation. From a management perspective, it may also indicate the nature of large-scale trends and the present position of the Park ecosystem in relation to these trends. Conversely, if fie cycles are assumed to be constant over the, then their quantification for penods subject to different human activities may indicate the degree to which people have altered the role of fie in the Park. in this case, significant differences in the fire cycle before and after the introduction of specific human influences cm be viewed as counsel for prudence in the reintroduction of fie, since natural conditions no longer exist, and thus fie processes should not be expected to function naturaIly. The objective of this thesis is to provide an overail assessrnent of historicai fire cycles in
Wabakimi Provincial Park as a badine for park fire management planning. Chapter 2 contains a description of the Wabakimi Provincial Park study area in terms of ecologicai features, human influences, and weather. Chapter 2 also contains a description of the potentiai impacts of human influences on the role of fire in the Park, and a preliminary anaiysis of these influences based on descriptive statistics fiom historicai records. in Chapter 3. a statistical analysis of stand age-classes in Wabakimi is used to assess temporal changes in the fire cycle. The nuU hypothesis is that fire cycles before and after the introduction of fire suppression are the sarne. The aiternative hypothesis is that £ire cycles after the introduction of fire suppression are statistidy signincantiy dBerent (Le., longer) than those before suppression influences. In Chapter 4, the relevance of these historicai fire cycles to the future of Wabakirni is reviewed in light of the theoretical and practical issues that characterize fire management in protected areas. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of the management and history of fire in the Park and presents recornrnendations for the development of a Wabakirni fire management plan. Chapter 2 Description of Wabakimi Provincial Park
As an integrated component of the boreal forest ecosystem, forest hscan not be studied, understood, or managed in isolation f?om other ecosystem components. An understanding of the nature of fie within the specific eco-regional context in question, combined with historical accounts of human and weather influences in the area, is crucial to the design and interpretation of fie history studies, and resdtant £ire management planning.
Fh history anaiysis. by its very nature, demands this broad 'ecosystem' approach to scientific inqujr and typically involves the use of multiple methodologies and the piecing together of scattered and anecdotal evidence in an effort to produce a lucid historical account of b. Quantitative fire history methods have only existed for the past 25 years, and while they continue to be developed and improved, the state of fire history science to date remains inexact due to the nature of fin which operates within and ultimately controls the distribution of mortal and fleeting entities, namely; trees.
The limitations imposed by the mortality of trees are exacerbated in the boreal forest of northwestem Ontario where intense, stand-replacing crown fires elirninate the evidence needed to establish fire histories fiom fire scars (Sufning 1990, Yarie 1981, McCune 1983,
Turner and Romme 1994, Johnson 1992) and obligotrophic lakes inhibit fire history analysis fiom charcoal in lake sediments (SufTling 1990). These ecological realities preclude the aforementioned typical approach of employing multiple methodologies, and by Limiting
quantitative analysis to the study of stand age-class distributions, they elevate the importance
of compiiiig any supplementary information that may contribute to an understanding of fire in
the area.
The foUowing sections, covering Wabakimi' s ecological features (Section 2.1). human influences (Section 2.2). and weather (Section 2.3), provide this cntically important information which is crucial to the design and interpretation of the stand age-class distribution analysis presented in Chapter 3. Section 2.4 summarks the implications of these study-area characteristics for fire management in Wabakimi Provincial Park.
2.1 Ecological Features
Wabakimi Provincial Park is located in the bord forest of northwestern Ontario. Situated approximately 300 km nonh of Thunder Bay, it encompasses 892,061 hectares. A comprehensive description of Wabakimi's ecological features is compiicated by the Park's location in a relatively isolated and undisturbed area of Ontario, and by its new status as a park. Because the expandeci Park only came into existence in 1997, there are no detailed ecological studies specific to the new boundary. Further, since the area has been relatively undisturbed with regard to resource exploitation, most of the Park has received little attention in the form of timber management inventories or surveying. However, there have ken numerous specific studies on the ecological features of the original
155,000 hectare Park and there are some specific studies of small forest areas contained in the new Park. There are also broad eco-region descriptions based on the work of Hills (1959) and Rowe (1972) and specific stand level descriptions from Ontario's Forest Resource hventory (FR0 data. Although background information was prepared for the recent
Wabakimi Park Boundary Review, this was heavily focused on geoiogicai features and contained vimially no information on the Park's vegetation structure or charactenstics
(OMNR 1994). Despite these limitations. a general review of the Park's ecological features is presented below through a description of the Park's eco-region (Section 2.1.1) and a discussion of the ecologid role of fire in the boreal forest (Section 2.1.2).
2.1.1 Eco-regional Description
The eco-regional divisions of both Rowe (1972) and Hills (1959) provide a general description of the Wabakimi landscape. Wabakirni is located entirely within Rowe 's ( 1972)
Central Plateau Section B.8 (Figure 2) where:
Extensive sand and grave1 deposits, and low rocky outcrops, provide a favourable environment for the prevalent jack pine [Pinus banhiana Lamb.]. Black spruce [Picea mariuna (Mill.) BSP] types are well developed, fiom those occupying the shallow swamps to those of maximum productivity on the better-drained level or undulating land. Mixhire of the two conifers is common and white birch [Betula papyrifera Marsh.] and trembling aspen [Popuius tremuloides Michx.] occur within the sarne association. On the more restricted and favounible sites, such as river banks, lakeshores, and drumlliized tiil uplaods where conditions of soi1 texture and drainage are optimum, cornmunities of trembling aspen, white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss], balsam fir [A bies baisamea (L.) Mill .], black spruce, balsarn pop lar [Populus balsamifera L.] and white birch are found. Such mixed wood-types tend to develop a strong shb understory, making it difficult to solve the problem of naturai softwood regeneration. Areas of bog, muskeg and upland rock barren occur throughout, the later condition aggravated by fiequent fire (Rowe 1 972:23).
Figure 2. Wabakimi Provincial Park Location in Rowe's (1972) Forest Regions and Sections
Northem Coniferousl ...- Section (Boreal Forest Region)
dario, Central Plateau Section [Boreal Forest Rcgion)
.. -.- .- -..+. 8. - -- \I1
Source: Modified fiom Rowe (1972) However, it has been noted that the vegetation in Wabakirni more closely resembles the
Northem Coniferous Section, B.22a (Noble 1990) (Figure 2). in this section, the predominant tree is black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] on thin upland soils and poorly drained lowlands, where nequent fies have favoured the spread of jack pine [Pinus banksiuna Lamb.] and the scattered presence of white birch [Betula papyrifra Marsh.]
(Rowe 1972). Observations of the onginal Park revealed a predominance of black spruce on bare and shailow soils. Overall, the Park consists of: "prevalently open and closed black spruce-dominated coniferous upland forest broken by patches of bare rock barrens" (Noble
1990: 25). Wabakimi is also located in Site Region 3W, according to Hills' (1959) Ontario
Site Region Classification (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Wabakimi Provincial Park Location in Hills' (1959) Site Regions and Districts
Source: Modifieci fiom Hik' (1959) The region is in the dry humid zone of the medium micro-thermal clhatic belt, charactetistic of Ontario north of Lake Superior. Within this zone, winters are generally cold and àry and summers are hot and dry. There are five site districts in this àry-humid mid boreal forest clirnate type and Wabakimi occupies the eastem half of site district 1, which consists of a complex pattern of weakly broken lacustrine2 sand, silt and clay plains broken by the ridges of the Nakina and Nipigon Moraines, with sand dune formation in some of the lacustrine sand areas (Hills 1959).
The original Park is described as king located on a portion of a large, relatively level plateau-like expanse. The topography and vegetation are homogenous, with a lack of diverse landscapes (Scott 199 1). According to Noble (1990). the interaction of physiography and regional climate fails to produce an intense diversity of eco-climate mosaics and associated vegetation patterns (supported by the fact that it is within both Rowe's (1972) and Hills'
( 1959) eco-regions).
Specific information on the Park's approximately 40.000 stands was compiled fiorn Ontario's
Forest Resource Inventory (FRI). The FRi data provides a general description of each stand, including species composition, stand age, stand size, and stand type, among other variables.
The majonty of the Park area (76%) is composed of Production, Protection and Barren &
Scattered (B&S) stands (Figure 4). The Production Forest, which covers 69% of Wabakimi
Provincial Park, refea to productive forest land at various stages of growth. The Protection
' Refas to materid wnsported fom one amto another by lake water (Smith 1986). Forest designation, covering 4% of the Park, is productive forest land where timber
production activities are prohibited due to the sensitivity of the area caused by such factors as
steep slopes or shallow soi1 on bedrock. The B&S designation, covering 3% of the park,
refea to productive forest land that contains only scattered trees due to natural or artificial
disturbance, with no significant amount of regeneration (OMNR 1996). These three land
type classifications are grouped together because their sum represents the total forested area
of the Park. The second largest land type is Water, which covers 14.10% of the park,
followed by Treed Muskeg (6.4 1%) and Open Muskeg (2.80%), Rock (0.09%), and fmally,
the negligible area that remains unclassified (Figure 4).
The approximate species composition of the Park's forested area (i.e. Production, Protection
and B&S land types) can also be calculated fiom FM data (Figure 5). The majority of the
Park's forested land (85.94%) is covered with coniferous forests (i.e., stands with > 75%
softwoods). Almost half of the Park's forested area is covered with pure black spmce stands
(Le., stands with > 75% black spmce). Coniferous stands containing a mix of softwoods
cover 33.3% of the forested land in the Park and are primarily composed of jack pine and
black spruce, with small quantities of balsma fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.], larch [Lark
spp.], white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss], and cedar [Cedrus spp.]. Less than 5% of
the Park's forested area is covered in deciduous forests (i.e. stands with > 75% hardwoods).
Hardwood species found in the Park include aspen [Populus spp.], white birch [Betula papyrifera Marsh.], and traces of hard maple [Acer succharum Marsh.], and lowland
hardwoods. Treed Muskeg Brush 6.41% 0.69% Rock 0.09% Water Unclass 14.10% 0.04%
4.26% Protection Forest 2.78% Barrtn and Scattered
*Pacu~tagcsshow the tom1 proportton of !hc Park ana classificd un& esch mdiv~dualland type.
47.45% Pure Biack Spmcc ~tands' 5.19% Pure Jack Pine stands6 33.3% Mixtd stands7(Predomfnantly Blick spmcd Jack Pinc mixes with tract amoants of Balsam Fir, White Spmcc, hrcb, Cedar)
Paçcntage of the Park's forestcd arcs codin sian& composcd of: > 75% hardwoods ' 5 1 -75% hardwoods ' > 75% s~îhmods' 5 1 -75% joftwoods > 75% bkkqmcc ' > 75% jack pine '~oftwwdstands thaî art not dominatcd (>75%) by a single species. While the land type and species compositions outlined above describe the park as a whole, an
Unportant issue is the extent to which these compositions are homogenous throughout al1 areas of the park. For example, if specific areas of the park contained higher proportions of water, muskeg, or rock, then fire processes might Vary spatially. Similarly, areas with higher proportions of hardwoods will be less flammable than those covered entirely with black spruce and/or jack pine. One way of investigating spatial homogeneity of land and species types is to break dom these classifications by FR1 Management Unit (MU). The boundary of Wabakimi Provincial Park encompasses portions of five different MUS. Table 1 shows the area and percentages of the Park contained in each MU.
Table 1. Percentage of Wabakimi Provincial Park Contained in Each Management Unit (MU) - --
---.- I - j Management Hectares Oh of Park f 1 Unit --p. 1 I 172 469.36 1 53.09%
Source: Ontario Forest Resource hventory (FM)
The MUS represent administrative boundaries and cover different sized portions of the Park
(Figure 6), however, they provide a simple means of partitionhg the FR1 data to make general cornparisons about the distribution of land type and species compositions. In general,
MU 172 represents the central and western part of the park, MU 447 covers the east, MU 664 covers the northwest, MU 24 1 covers the aortheast, and MU 173 covers the southem-most tip of the park. The land-type composition is relatively homogenous across the five MUS(Figure 7a-e). The species composition for the forested amof the Parlc by MU, is shown in Figure 8a-e. As in the case of land types, the species composition is generdy homogenous across the five MUS.
Figurr 6. Boundaries of Ontario Forest Resource Iaventory Management Units @fu)in Wabakimi PmvinciaJ Park Figure 7.a-c Wabakid Provincial Park Land Type Composition, by FRI Management Unit
Rock Undusificd Figure 8.a-e Wabaklmi Provincial Park Forest Composition, by FRï Management Unit Overall, the vast majority of the Park is covered with black spmce. Both land type and
species compositions are relatively homogenous throughout the Park; thus, it seems
reasonable to treat the Park as a unit. Many of these simple, descriptive Park characteristics
are influenced by, if not the direct result of, dynamic ecosystem processes, the most prominent of which is fire.
2.1.2 Ecological Role of Fire
Fire is a natural part of the boreal forest ecosystem. It influences the characteristics of the forest and contributes to ecosystem functioning by interacting with vegetation, soils and hydrology. Heinselman (1971) identified apparent species adaptations to the prevalence of fie and showed that fire contributes to tree reproduction and the distribution of forest ages.
Fire also controls the vegetation mosaic and stand diversity (Bonan and Shugart 1989). Fire is important with regard to nuirient cycling, energy flow, and productivity. This is particularly relevant in northem areas aff'ected by permafrost, since fire affects soi1 moisture, temperature, organic matter accumulation, and regeneration by consuming the forest Boor to varying degrees (Kronberg and Fyfe 1992, Bonan and Shugart 1989).
Fire also has a role with respect to hydrology and watershed dynamics (Scotter 1972,
Minshall et al. 1989, Knight et al. 1985). Fire affects hydrology by altering the perm~fiost table, which modifies surface and subsurface drainage and the capacity of soils to hold water.
Fire can also control the thermal structure of lakes, and the prevalence of organisms in hem, by increasing wind ve f oc it ies, water-surface tram par encies, and ex posure to wind. Lake
chemisûy is also affected by declines in water renewal and increased inputs fiom burned
forested watersheds (Kronberg and Fyfe 1992).
In the bored forest, fires that have large-scale impacts on the ecosystem are generally large,
hi& intensity crown fires or severe surface fies that destroy and regenerate entire stands
(Bonan and Shugart 1989, Johnson 1992). This is particuiarly tnie for black spruce, due to
bark thickness; lower crown base heights; and exposed, small, branches (Johnson 1992).
Some of the largest fires in the world have ken reported in the boreal forest. Fires routinely
exceed 100,000 hectares and some have exceeded 1 million hectares (Johnson 1992). in
1871, a fie that started on the north shore of Ontario's French River and burned northwest to
the Mississagi River reportedly exceeded 5 18,000 hectares (Richardson 1928), or the
equivalent of 82.94% of Wabakirni's forested land. in 1916, a single fire burned an
estimated 310,800 hectares in Ontario's Clay Belt between Haileybury and Cochrane
(Richardson 1928). or the equivalent of 49.76% of Wabakirni's forested area. Between 1980 and 1994 the largest fire reported in Ontario occurred in the province's Red Lake District
(1983 Fire Number 1SO), and was 132,976 hectares in size. This translates hto 2 1.3% of
Wa bakirni 's forested area.
The dominance of black spruce and jack pine in Wabakimi is uadoubtedly a result of fiequent fie. Fire is believed to be responsible for most natunil stands of black spruce (Robinson
1974). This can be explained by the paralle1 succession mode1 of ecosystems, where communities of states A and B each undergo a disturbance, but retum to the same respective states shortly afterwards (Frelich and Reich 1995). Parallel succession occurs when species like jack pine or black spnice dominate large areas, such that regeneration after stand-killing fies is based solely on the seed source fiom the pre-fire stand, and population dynamics fluctuate in response to the stochasticity, or randomness, of fie (Johnson 1992). While there may be ground-level successional changes, the overstory composition is maintained after fire
(Frelich and Reich 1995, Johnson 1992).
Although fire seems to ensure the continued dominance of black spnice in Wabakimi. the interaction of fie and black spruce in a particular ecosystem may be tempered by nurnerous factors. For example, the sparse vegetation and bedrock coverage chanictenstic of spruce forests cm limit fuel and decrease fne susceptibility, while inhibited fiiel drymg and decreased flanimability also occurs as a result of heavy moss formation (Bergeron 199 1).
There is dso evidence that black spruce has the capacity for continuous self-replacement in the absence of £ire, while others studies report its presence in early successional stands, followed by decline (Frelich and Reich 1995). Either scenario is possible, given the semi- serotiny' of black spnice seeds, which fosten pst-fire recruitment and, in the absence of fire, continued seed dispersal that is accentuated by reproduction fiom layering (Frelich and Reich
1995).
Serotinous cones do not open sponteneously after maturation, but ratha, rrmain sealed by resin on the cone scales that can be melted at the high temperatutes that accompany forest fires (Krebs 1985). in addition to interacting with soils and hydrology, fire in Wabakimi has most Iikely had a profound influence on the species composition, successional patterns, and landscape mosaic of the Park's vegetation. However, an understanding of the specific relationship between fire and ecosystem characteristics, and the importance or necessity of maintainhg this relationship to ensure ecological integrity, is complicated by site-specific ecological factors.
An even greater confounding factor is the influence of humans.
2.2 Human Influences
The above description of the Park's ecoiogy must be viewed within the context of hurnan activities that may have altered or shaped both landscape features and processes in
Wabakimi. For ease of discussion, human uifluences on Wabakirni Provincial Park have been subdivided into three eras, namely: the Pre-Suppression Era (Section 2.2. l), defined by the period prior to the advent of organized fire suppression in the early 1900s; the
Suppression Era (Section 2.2.2) fiom the early 1900s to 1983, during which the the entire area now known as Wabakimi was under a strict policy of fire exclusion; and the Park Era
(Section 2.2.3) from 19834998. during which tirne portions of the Park were subject to various fie policies. Section 2.2.4 discusses the difficuities of quantimg the magnitude and significance of these influences with regard to the role of fire in the Park. The Pre-Suppression Era refen to the period prior to organized fire suppression, which began in the eariy 1900s. Human influences during this Era include those associated with: i) First
Nations Activities; ii) Exploration and the Fur trade; and iii) Settlement.
(i) Fit Nations Activitics
Human activity in the Wabakimi area cm be traced back to the retreat of the last ice age, approximately 6,000 B.C. Archeological evidence of human activity during this period has been documented near Lake Nipigon, just southeast of the Park, and evidence suggests that the pursuit of big garne led inhabitants inland. By 6,000 years ago, humans in the Wabakimi area were intricately connected to the movemed of food resources. The area was occupied by the Laurel people between 2,500 and 1,500 years ago, who were eventually replaced by
Blackduck and Seikirk Peoples (Adams 1988).
The degree to which these people used and influenced fie in Wabakùni is not clear and a detailed review of archeological evidence related to their cultures is beyond the scope of this study. However, it is possible that they modified the role of fie to some degree. ui fact, there appears to be some concrete evidence of First Nations' use and manipulation of fire in more recent times. According to Alexander (1980: l OO), First Nations peoples in Ontario:
...were apparently well aware that young vigorous forests were usually the most suitable habitat for a large variety of plant and animal species. in order to maintain sufficient mas suitable to theû needs, indian bands set fire to selected areas at appropriate times and this manipulated the forests.
While there are no studies of First Nations' use of fire specific to the Wabakimi area, results of research on the Cree in Alberta suggest prudent use of fie by early boreal forest inhabitants (Lewis 1977). Understanding of risk apparently lùnited buming to lake margins, bogs, meadows and swamps, rather than upland boreal forest, characterized by unmanageable and extreme &e behaviour (Lewis 1977). Further, buming was undertaken on smail scales and during pehds of relatively low hazard (i.e., spring or late fall). Johnson (1992) suggests that the activities of the Cree may be typical to the boreal forest, in which case it may be argued that Fint Nations' peoples had a relativeiy minor impact on the large scale natural process of fire in Wabakimi.
(ü) Exploration and the Fur Trade
Initial European contact may have influenced the role of fire in Wabakimi both indirectly, by altering First Nations' activities, and directly by providing new sources of ignition. Contact between Wabakimi's First Nations' groups and Europeans occurred in the seventeenth century as a result of fur trade developments in the Upper Great Mes, where dominance by the Iroquois over the Huron, and other groups, pushed fur trade activities ïnto the Lake
Nipigon region (Adams 1988). The Wabakirni area was occupied by a diversity of native groups by the late seventeenth century, including the Cree, Ojibwa and Nipissings, who sought to bypass iroquois control of trade routes south of Wabakirni by using northem waterways co~ectingLake Nipigon to the St. Lawrence River via James Bay (Adams 1988). By changing the distribution of First Nations groups, which may have been characterized by divergent uses of fk,it is possible that the Fur Trade attend the relationship between fie and people in the Park.
The Fur Trade may have mer altered the relationship between fire and hurnans by increasing the number of people in the area. By the late eighteenth century, a route that linked the intenor of the province to James Bay passed through the Park, connecting the
Hudsons Bay Company Post on the Albany River to an independent trading post on Sturgeon
Lake, located just south-west of the Park. At this time, fur trade posts in the Park area were considered loci of native trade (Adams 1988). However, others argue that the seasonal cycle of First Nation's activities remained constant between the 1600s and the mid- 1940s Johnson
( 1992).
It is likely that setîlement, which occumd in the early 1900s with the construction of the
Canadian National Railway (CNR) between 1910 and 19 15. had an impact on both First
Nations' activities and on the process of fire in Wabakimi. The CNR line passes through the southern tip of the Park and its construction and early use may have resulted in increased ignitions. Further, the CMZ construction led to officia1 settlement of the Wabakimi area with the establishment of an independent trading pst at Collins, located on the southeast boundary of the Park. Accordkg to Scott (1991). establishment of the trading post represented the start of an exodus of First Nations' peoples fiom the bush into settied communities, which was virtually complete by 1967. The exodus of First Nations' peoples, combined with settlement, may have changed fire regimes by removing the influence of native buming and introducing the use of fire by settlers to clear land. However, it may be argued that Europeans had a small eEect on pre-suppression fire fiequency. According to Johnson et al. (1990). regarding historical £ire fiequency in Glacier National Park. B.C., Europeans did not affect pre- suppression fire frequency becaw they did not consistently bum a large enough ma.
2.2.2 Suppression Era
The Suppression Eni represents the second phase of possible human influence on fire in
Wabakimi. It coven the penod between the early 1900s and 1983, during which time fire management was evolving in Ontario in terms of both suppression policy and force. The period between 1983 and 1998 is briefly reviewed as a transition period between the
Suppression Era and the Park Era, since the upper bound of the Suppression Era is unclear.
The potential impacts of fü.e suppression on the ecological role of fie are also discussed. (i) Evotation of Flre Suppression Poücy
Concem with forest fie management in Ontario emerged in 1849 with the establishment of a
Royal Commission to study forest protection fiom "unnecessary" tüe. Enacted in 1878, the
nrst fire prevention legislation defined fire districts and restncted burning during certain
periods. Disastrous fies in 19 16 resuited in extensive casdties and introduced fire as a threat to economic development, thus prompting enaction of the Foresr Fkes Prevention Act
in 1917. This Act marked the transition kmthe "let-it-bm" phase of fire management to the i5-e exclusion phase and established both a detection system, and stations for rangers and
supplies (OMMI1990).
The fire exclusion phase, characterized by active detection and suppression of al1 fues, continued fiom 19 17 until 1982. However, in practice, physical and economic realities ofken precluded complete fue exclusion. For this reason, the province was divided into 2 zones.
Within the Inside Intensive Protection (IIP) Zone, fie exclusion was actively applied, whereas in the Outside Intensive Protection (OP)Zone, fie protection was selective based on values at risk, potential impacts, and the likelihood of suppression success. In practice, most OP fies were not "actioned" unless they threatened communities or identified values
(Ward 1995, OMNR 1990).
The new recognition of forest fwes and theu role within the ecological cycle, which emerged in the 1970s, prompted the introduction of a Fire Management hprovement Program in 1980. The purpose of that program was to develop and implement an improved fire management system for Ontario. The resultant policy stated three objectives for fire management: 1) to prevent Ioss of human life, to prevent personal injury and to minirnize social disruption; 2) to ensure that fies have a minimal effect on public works, private property and natural resources; and 3) to use the natural benefits of fire to achieve ministry objectives for land and resource management (OMNR 1990a).
Enacted in 1982, the new policy initiated a deparhue fiom mandated fire exclusion. Under the new policy the OP and IIP zones were replaced with the Intensive, Extensive and
Measured zones (Figure 9). Within the Intensive Protection Zone, the practice of fm exclusion continues to be relied on. tn the Extensive Protection Zone the majority of fires are only monitored, unless they threaten identified values. In the Measured Protection Zone, fires generally receive an initial attack, followed by an assessrnent of potential impacts and costs, to determine if the effort should be continued or abandoned (Ward 1995, Martel1
1994). Several small areas within the Intensive Protection Zone are considered part of the
Measured Protection Zone. When the original Wabakimi Provincial Park was created in
1983, it became one of these areas.
Although WabaW was subject to a policy of fie exclusion fiom the early 1900s to 1982, in practice the application of this policy to various areas of the Intensive Protection Zone may have been driven by values at risk. During penods of elevated fire activity, fïre managers, who are faced with limited resources, must prioritize initial attack of fires based on values at Figure 9. Ontario Fire Management Zones
Measured Protection Zone
'al rot Park risk. In isolated areas like Wabakimi, timber values would have detennined priority.
However, as late as 1946 cutting rights had not yet been leased or reserved in the Park. with
the exception of a very small area south of the CNR (Ontario Royal Commission on Forestry
1947). It was not until 1957 that the OMNR allocated cutting rights for the area to Great
Lakes Forest Products Ltd. (Killan 1993). It may be reasonable to assume that Wabakimi
was considered a low priority for fire protection prior to the 1950s. The nature of fire
suppression may have also reflected the evolution of the fire organization.
(ü) Evolution of the Suppression Force
While a policy of fire exclusion was in place between the early 1900s and 1982, the acnial
ability of the provincial fire organization to exclude al1 fire in Wabakimi was limited by the
suppression force of the evolving organization. The ability to effectively detect and suppress
fies was in many ways determined by technology, which continued to change despite the
static fire exclusion policy. Technological innovation resulted in radical changes to
Ontario's £ire suppression organization in its early years.
In 1903, it was noted that fie ranging was not expected to result in the large-scale
suppression of forest fies "because once a fire gets headway in a pine forest it would be
impossible for an arrny of men to stop it" (Commissioner of Crown Lands 1903). However,
between 1903 and 1909 the number of fie rangers increased fiom 270 to 822 and technological innovations began to shape the organization. A key technological innovation was that of the portable fire-fighting pump. Pumps had Grst appeared in the organization in
19 17 and by 19 19 five were in use. In 192 1, pumps "proved of inestimable value in fie- fighting." (Ministry of Lands and Forests l 922). in 1922, 16 rnorr pumps were secured and it was noted that:
Until a few years ago £ire fighting in the woods was done by rangen with shovels and mattocks4 bringing water to the fies with ordinary buckets. To-day our organktion has a large number of portable gasoline engines and pumps which cany fiom 500-1.000 feet of hose. These small portable pumps have proven of great value, in many cases savhg the entire cost of dl pumps purchased to date.. .Portable forest tire fighting units have proved to be the most valuable part of our equiprnent. The unit consists of a small pump driven by a 5-6 horse power gasoline motor, al1 mounted on a metal base and capable of throwing a good Stream of water at the end of fifteen hundred or two thousand feet of hose. The unit itself weighs about one hundred and twenty pounds and can be transported without difficulty by either canoe or back-pack. An unlined one and one-half inch Linen hose is used, in one hundred foot lengths, weighing about twenty pounds per hundred feet. These pumps have been operated continuously for as much as fowteen hours and have been estimated to be equal to forty men (Minister of Lands and Forests 1923).
The success of the pump lead to the prioritization of timely detection and improved mechanical equipment as strategic organizational goals with respect to expenditures. in
1922, aircraft for fire detection were wdfor the fmt the and, through an mgement with the Dominion Air Board, seaplanes patrolled ten million acres. The planes were also used for tra~sportingequipment to fies in remote areas. By 1923, there were 1 17 lookout towers and 88 purnps in use. Again, the value of the pump was declared: "these pumping units are found to be indispensable in comection with handiing the forest fire situation. in many districts this past season they saved the situation," (Minister of Lands and Forests 1924). The
pumps were said to enable the control of fires in places where otherwise it would have been
impossible.
By 1924, the systemic use of aircrafl was an intepl part of the organization and one machine
was stationed at Orient Bay, on Lake Nipigon, just southeast of Wabakimi. In that same year
56 new pumps were pwchased and "proved to be the most important single factor in
combating forest fms" (Muiister of Lands and Forests 1925). in 1925, another 50 pumps
were purchased bringing the total number in stock to 189, and aircrafi were becoming
indispensable. The following excerpt demonstrates that fires in the Wabakimi area were
king effectively detected and suppressed in a timely fashion by the mid- 1920s:
An excellent example of the effectiveness of aircraft in dealing with a certain type of fire was afforded on August la, at Randolph Lake, near Armstrong Ljust east of Wabakimi's boundary] on the Canadian National Railway, .. . On detecting the fire, the machine landed immediately. Investigation showed that the crew could not cope with the fire, that the proportions were such that it would need the proper fire fighting equipment. ïhe machine at once took off and flew to Macdiarmid, where two tire rangers, pumps and hose were picked up and flown back to the fie. As a resdt of the combined efforts of the crew ...and two fire rangers, the fire was attacked and pronounced out at 19 o'clock, 5 hours and 50 minutes fiom the tirne it was htdetected (Minister of Lands and Forests 1926).
It is important to note that by the 1926 fire season, the use of aircd for fire suppression purposes was rapidly increasing and aircraft were king used to detect fires in the outlying regions of the province. Planes patrolled that portion of Ontario west of the 87" mendian of longitude and as far north as the 52nd meridian of latitude (Minister of Lands and Forests
1927). This means that by 1926, the entire area now defined by the boundary of Wabakimi
Provincial Park was within the Western Patrol. A Merorganizational development at this point involved using aircraft not only for expedient tnuisportation of fie fighters and equipment, but also for the strategic positioning of crews and equipment.
By 1928, there were 290 pumps in use and the Dominion Meteorological Service was providing daily special weather forecasts throughout the fite season. Further, studies were king undertaken to determine the relationship between different weather factors and forest fie hazards. As the 1920s came to a close, the fire management organization asserted with confidence that the 1929 fire season had "[proven] beyond a doubt that &es can be controlled under most adverse conditions" (Mînister of Lands and Forests 1930).
In 1938, the air fleet was expanded fiom 6 to 15, thus enabling the "fire fighting force to place men and equipment on newly reported fies with such rapidity that they have ken able to extinguish them in their earliest stages," (Minister of Lands and Forests 1939). The introduction of the Beaver aircraft in 1948 may have ken significant, given its ability to operate out of extremely small bodies of water. Both the Beaver and the larger Otter were desiped to meet Ministry requirements. In 1948, fk control planning was rapidly developing with the nrst editions of manuals on rating fire danger and mapping fuel types.
Provincial fire control &ta was also king compiled, including, zones of constant fie danger, accessibility maps, fire occurrence rnaps, climatic data, and soi1 moisture conditions. in 1950, experiments in water bombing were conducted and district tire control plans were king developed. At this time loaded patrols were standard practice and the use of helicopters was king evaluated. In 1956, special trained crews were introduced, consisting of highly trained and mobile rangers. in 1957, five helicopters were in use and by 1958 al1
Beaver and Otter aircraft were equipped with water dropping tanks. Water dropping "can very effectively check the rate of spread and help control fires in their initial stages. It is also effective on lirnited portions of fire line on large £ires. Dense smoke conditions and intensely hot, fast buming fires also deout water dropping as a fire suppression aid" (Minister of
Lands and Forests 1959).
Organizationai flexibility was evident in 1960, when personnel and equiprnent were moved around the province based on fire weather and danger assessments. in 1962, a comprehensive fire control training program was launched and two bush-fire schools were established. During this year, prescribed buming was carried out to elirninate certain hazards and for various management purposes.
in 1965, an aircraft modernization program was initiated with the introduction of the turbine- powered Turbo Beaver. In 1966, mdar technology was king used to plot lightning and pnoritize detection. By 1969, a course in advanced fire behaviour, organization, and management was organized and presented to senior fîre control personnel and the Canadian
Fire Weather Index was developed to measure fire danger. An equipment assessrnent and development program was also established in 1969. In 1971, the 'Fire Centre' concept was introduced, with daily planning sessions for analyzing dl idormation relating to fire weather,
risk, hazard, and the cumnt fire situation. At this point studies were king undertaken on the
relationship between fire behaviour and fire index values; and on the use of a computerized
index forecasting system.
The training program continued to be developed in the 1970s with courses in basic fire
suppression, advanced £ire management, and fire weather. By 1975, there was a Provincial
Education Coordinator and training officers in each of the five fue regions. The early 1970s
were also marked by an increased use of fire bombing aircrafi, such as the CL-215. A Forest
Fire Suppression Equipment Standards Manual was made available to staff in 1977 and infra-
red scanning units were evaiuated. In the late 1970s the use of computer programs for
decision making was rapidly advancing in the areas of fire occurrence, prediction, fire growth
and behaviour models. Further, a lighhiing locator system was evaluated in the northwest region.
While the dates of specific advances in suppression force can be identified, the application of this force was not necessarily consistent for al1 areas of the province or time periods. For example, in 1932, a large portion of area burned was blamed on reductions in staff (Minister of Lands and Forests 1933). In 1933, continued staff reductions meant that fire exclusion north of the northem line of the Canadian National Railway (Le., Wabakhi) was confined to settlements, and areas of resource value/activity (Minister of Lands and Forests 1934). World War II also influenced suppression force by limiting the availability of fire rangers, fuel, and
equipment (Minister of Lands and Forests 1944).
(iü) Tilimltion to the Park Era
As noted in the previous section on the evolution of suppression policy, in 1983 Wabakirni became part of the Measured Protection Zone. This marked a depamire fiom fie exclusion and the beginning of the Park Era. However, the extent to which fie management in the Park actually changed at this point is unclear. in practice, the Suppression Era may have continued until at least 1994, given the Park's location in the North Central region, where the fie management strategy for the Measured Protection Zone was considered similar to strategies applied to intensive Protection Zones for the Northwestem and Northem Regions
(Martel1 1994). Consequently, the impacts of developments in the fire organization between
1983 and 1994 may have differed little fiom those of the previous decades. Further, since only the original Park became part of the Measured Zone, most of the present park boundary was still subject to fire exclusion after 1983.
Water bornbing capabilities increased dramatically in the 1980s with the purchase of two CL-
215s in 1983. Capable of scooping 5,455 litres of water and travelling 260 kilometen an hour, the CL-215 was also the only aircraft primarily designed for fire fighting. In 1983. the lightning locator system, which made it possible to detect and locate 80 to 90 percent of al1 cloud-to-ground strikes, was expanded to cover al1 of northem Ontario between North Bay and the Manitoba border. During the same year, computerized decision-support systems
were used to predict fie location and behaviour. in 1984, a new highly coordinated and
flexible management system was introduced, wheteby regional centres became responsible
for fie control in their own area. This included the completion of daily-plans outlining the
regional situation, predicting £ire occurrence and behaviour, defining detection requirernents,
positioning fie fighting resources, and describing dispatch des.
In 1986 an action plan was developed in response to a review of a particularly large fire, Red
Lake number 7. This included changes in fue detection and reporting methods, fire
investigations, weather forecasting, provision and use of equipment, communications, and
training. in 1987, a new computer system became operational at the five regional centres. By
1988, Ontario had nine CL-2 15 water bombers and an on-board foarn injection system was
king tested.
The 1990s were marked by a depamire fiom technological and organizational improvements to more policy-level changes reflecting attitudes conceming fire. For example, the number of
CL-215 water bombers in Ontario remained constant between 1988 and 1998, however, in
1991, new Statements of Strategic Direction were formalized for the organization. The objectives of fie management were (OMNR 1991b): (1) to prevent persona1 injury, value
loss and social disruption; and (2) to promote understanding of the ecological role of fire and utilize its beneficial effects in resource management. (iv) Ecotogical Impacts of Fire Suppression
Fire suppression may have begun to affect the role fire in Wabakimi in the early 1900s, and
suppression force may have had significant impacts on fire by the late 1920s. Although the
potential impacts of fie suppression on the characteristics of the landscape are numerous, the
one most recurrent in the literature is that of fuel build-up. It has ken suggested that
prolonged fire exclusion creates a build-up of unnaturai fuel levels in the forest, which result
in catastrophic fires that ultirnately exceed the mitigative capacities of the suppression
agencies, and inflict an ecologicaily detrimental effect on the landscape (Euler 1985,
Goodman 1985, Arno and Brown 1989, Wein and Moore 1977, Fieinselman 1971. Clark
1988, Baker 1994, Neuenschwander 1996). This situation could be exacerbated by climate
change, which could potentially increase fire occurrence (Clark 1988, Fiannigan and Van
Wagner 1990, Suffling 1990, Price and Rind 1994). Othen argue that, in the case of forests
characterized by long intervals between fires (Le., 400 years), effective fire suppression has
not existed long enough to create abnormal fuel conditions, although it may have affected the
extent and comectivity of old-growth (Rornme and Despain 1989).
Heinseiman (1 97 1) cautions that, in producing climax communities over an entire landscape,
fie exclusion has created a situation that is foreign to nature, with attendant unforeseen consequences. Suffling (1 990) argues that landscapes such as northwestem Ontario, which
have a history of intermediate disturbance, will experience reductions in landscape divenity
as a result of fire suppression. According to Averill et al. (1 994: 1): Efforts to suppress disturbance, such as 1ightnhg-caused £ires, floods, erosion, drought, disease, and insects, which have been perceived to be in conflict with econornic interests, have resulted in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem health. The more we attempt to maintain an ecosystem in a static condition, the less likely we are to achieve what we intended we must be willing to bear both the economic and biologic consequences of such management.
Forest aging caused by fire suppression can inhibit the ability of some species to persist, since their abundance requires a longevity at least equivalent to the fire cycle in order to ensure post-tire re-invasion of the site (Bergeron 199 1). Johnson (1 992) argues that, given the successional pattern in the boreai forest. it is naïve to suggest that fie exclusion will yield a shade tolerant and self-reproducing tree composition. Johnson (1 992) claims that this would require major changes in both climate and vegetation architecture.
2.2.3 Park Era
The Park Era is the third phase of potential human influence on the role of fire in Wabakimi.
Although tire suppression force had peaked by the late 1970s, and an even level of suppression force charactet-ized the organization after that time, previously mentioned changes to Ontario's fire management policy combined with the Park's creation in 1983, may have aitered the influence of humans on fie in the Wabakimi area. in this Era, policy is the key influence rather than technology.
Wabakimi Provincial Park btcame into existence in 1983 as a result of Ontario's Strategic
Land Use Planning (SLUP) process. The Parks System Planning pro- within (SLUP) aimed to designate one wilderness park in each site region of the province. These parks were intended to protect provincially significant and undisturbed wildemess anas where the forces of nature would be pennitted to function fieely (OMM 1980). One of the proposed candidate wilderness parks was the Ogoki-Albany Wilderness Park. later termed Whitewater
Wildemess Park, which covered 463,000 hectares. This area was described as mature forest, with an intermediate age class dominated by 50-60 year old trees. The Ogoki-Albany, within which the candidate park was located, is considered one of Canada's 1st large undisturbed boreal forests and prime woodland caribou habitat (Killan 1993).
The Whitewater candidate wildemess park was reduced by two thirds to 155,000 hectares when it became Wabakimi Provincial Park on June 2, 1983 (Figure 10). The area provided habitat for woodland caribou, black bear, wolf and moose. It consisted of pure stands of jack pine and black spruce, and birch trees. Lichens. bogs, and muskegs were cornmon in low- lying terrain. With respect to fire, the park was managed as part of the Measured Fire Zone despite its location within the intensive Protection Zone (Figure 9). However, as previously mentioned, the Park's location in the North Central region suggests that fire management in the area approximated strategies typical of the Intensive Protection Zone (Martel1 1994).
Consequently, designation of the Park as a Measured Zone may not have altered fire management in the area. Figure 10. Wa bakimi Provincial Park Boundanes 1983 and 1998.
Original Park (1983)
L Expanded Park Boundary (1997)
In the early 1990s, the oppominity to expand the Park emerged due to Ontario's endorsement of the Endangered Spaces Program, which hedthe Park within an under-represented area. h 1992, a forma1 review was initiated by the OMNR, and the Wabakimi Park Boundary
Cornmittee conducted a multi-stakeholder review of the park's size, shape and representative features (OMNR 1996). OMNR staff expanded the cornmittee's report and the proposed park expansion was announced in April 1995. Regulated on July 25, 1997, the expanded
Park encompassed 892,061 hectares, representing the second largest park in Ontario and the largest park within the province's forested region (Figure 10). A significant reason for expanding the Park was to protect a representative area of naturally-
functioaing boreal forest (OMNR 1996, Taylor 1995, 1995b, Lompart 1994). It has been
explicitly stated that fire will have a strong ecological role in the Park. A fire Management
Strategy will be developed and implernented which reflects the natural role of fire in the
bord forest ecosystem. According to the OMNR (1996:4) "While fire suppression will
occur in some situations, especidly where then is risk of loss of human life or senous
property damage, wildfires in many situations will be ailowed to bum."
Progressive fire management in the Park appeared to emerge during the 1995 and 1996 fire
seasons when some fies in Wabakimi were not actioned immediately (Racey 1997, Johnson
1997). However, the 1995 and 1996 fies may not be indicative of altered policy, since there
simply were not resources to fight these fires. Such situations have been cornmon throughout
the history of fire suppression in the Intensive Protection Zone and can potentially occur in
any remote area of the province.
Overall, the potentiai for human influences on the role of fire in Wabakirni will change
drarnatically during the Park Era. Designation of park statu most likely increased public
awareness of the area as a recreational destination, thus increasing the potential for human-
caused fire ignitions. Further, the regdation of the original Park in 1983, foilowed by the
Park expansion in 1997, has been characterized by a progressive depamire hm fire exclusion policies. Because a fire exclusion policy is presently still in practice. the influence of the Park Era will
rmerge in the coming years as fire is re-introduced into Wabakimi. While the lack of fire
may result in negative consequences for boreal forest ecosystems, tw much fire can be
equally perilous (Bergeron 199 1, Frelich and Reich 1995, Gordon 1979, Parks Cana& 1978).
Although the park design and configuration was intended to support a fire-driven ecosystem
and maxWe available natural £ire barriers (OMNR 1994), other ecological factors must
also be considered.
According to Bergeron (199 l), once the forest mean age exceeds the time that species such as jack pine persist in the stand, even an increased fire frequency will not ensure the reestablishment of pre-suppression forest mosaics. This appears to be supported by an analysis of the relationship between spatial patchiness, spatial scale, and canopy succession in the southem-boreal forest of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wildemess (BWCAW), where Frelich and Reich (1995) reported the succession of jack pine stands to a mixture of black spruce, balsam fir, birch and white cedar. Results showed that reinstating fire in a locality that has lost its jack pine seed source invariably results in aspen forests, while continued fire exclusion results in old-growth mixtures of balsarn fir, black spnice, white cedar, and birch (Frelich and Reich 1995).
Gordon (1979) conducted a study of the forests in the southern portion of what is now
Wabakimi Provincial Park. For Wabakimi, Gordon ( 197959) concluded that "severe and repeated disturbances on a shorter cycle than naturai wildfire would result in rock barrens, which would revegetate naturally only through the slow process of organic matter accumulation in cracks and crevices." The shallow organic soi1 on sioping bedrock that is characteristic of Wabakimi can be severely damaged by fire, due to consumption of humus and subsequent erosion that may take centuries to recover (Parks Canada 1978). While fire will be reintroduced in Wabakimi, the appropriate amount of fb has not ken detennined.
if the pattern of fie disturbance ken altered by human influences, then fire may not operate naturally when these influences are removed. Rather, the removal of human influences must
'be viewed as simply another human influence that mut be carefully controlled.
Unfortunately, quantimg the aforementioned human influences on the role of fire in
Wabakimi is cornpiex.
2.3.4 Quantifying human influences
One means of assessing the influence of humans on the role of fire, and associated ecology of the Park, is to examine changes in fire occurrence over time. Examination of historical forest fie records can provide insight into the impacts of human activities in this century by demonstrating trends in area burned, and other fire characteristics, such as suppression force or ignition source. Fire reporting in Ontario began in 1917. Although the fire reports for every fire that originated in Wabakimi between 1976 and 1996 are readily accessible, fire reports prior to 1976 are difficult to extract for mas like Wabakimi, which straddle several administrative districts characterized by tempordly unstable boundaries. Stored on microfilm in the Archives of Ontario and organized by these volatile administrative boundaries, the pre- 1976 fie reports relevant to Wabakimi were impossible to identi fy within the time limitations of this study. However, a general, but imprecise account of fie cm be compiled by combinuig data fiom the pst- 1976 fire reports with calculations of area burned fkom Domelly and Harrington's Forest Fire History Map of Ontario ( 1978) which includes maps of ail fires in Ontario greater than 200 hectares for the pend 192 1 to 1976. From these two sources, temporal changes in Wabakimi maburned (for fires >200 ha), ignition source, and suppression force cm be exarnined.
(i) Area Burned
Area bumed data fiom fire reports are limited by the fact that nurnerous fires in remote northern areas like Wabakimi were not detected in the early decades of this century. Also, rather than reflecting true changes in area bumed the statistics may simply demonstrate changes in jurisdictional reporting or decreased detection ability due to social factors, such as decreased budgets or a lack of resources. For example, fires in organized townships were no longer included in the forest fire statistics after 1932 (Minister of Lands and Forests 1934) and resources were limited during World War II (Mimster of Lands and Forests 1944).
The time series of area bumed is Mersuspect due to the two different sources for pre- and post-1976 &S. The pst- 1976 data contains ail fires that originated in the park. In other words, although some fires originating in the Park burned outside of the boundary, their area is included in the area bumed statistic, while other fires that originated outside of the park, but burned into the Park, are excluded altogether. Conversely, the pre-1976 data represents only those fires and portions of tires that occurred within the Park boundary. The pre-1976 data is dso dinerent because the areas were calculated from a map with a dot planimeter, which may be viewed as relatively imprezise wmpared to the post-1976 bumed areas recorded in the fire reports. Nevertheles, a quasi tirne-series of area bumed for fïres pater than 200 hectares covering the period 192 1- 1996, is presented below (Figure I 1).
The data is shown as the Average Annual Area Bumed by Decade. Annual averages are caiculated to account for the incornpiete 1990s data (Le. 1990-96). Decade statistics are more expressive than annual data, since ara burned varies enormously on an annual basis.
Figure 11. Wabakimi Average Annual Area Bumed by Decade (Fires > 200 Hectares)
Sources: Domeiiy and Harrington, 1978 (1930-1976 sîatistics); Ontario Fire Repris (1977019% statistics) The fire report and map data appear to indicate decreasing area bumed in Wabakimi between
1930 and 1970. followed by drastic increases in recent decades. This trend closely resembles area burned data for the province as a whole (Figure 12).
Figure 12. Ontario Annual Area Burned by Decade
Sources: OMNR 199 1 (1920- l989 statistics), Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 1997 (1990- 1995 statistics). Ianser 1998 (19% statistic)
In Ontario, area bumed decreased steadily hm 1920 to 1960, and as in the case of
Wabakimi, increased sharply in recent decades. The data for both Wabakimi and Ontario appear to support the previously discussed speculations about fire suppression and resultant fÙel accumulations. It could be argueci that nfty years of £ire suppression activity between
1920 and 1970 caused a build-up of fiels in Ontario forests which resulted in the increases in area bumed that have been obsewed in recent decades, despite the increased fire detedion and suppression force that should have been expected throughout this period as a result of technological innovation. Al t emately, trends may reflex% natural changes in large-scde processes, such as weather.
While Wabakimi and Ontario data appear to follow similar trends, when Wabakirni area burned is shown as a percentage of Ontario Area bumed, by decade, an interesting trend ernerges (Figure 13).
Figure 13. Wabakimi Percecnt of Ontano Area Burned by Decade
Between the 1930s and the 1960s area bumed in Wabakimi decreased steadily in cornparison to provincial area bumed. This means that although area bumed was decreasing in Ontario over the 1930-1960 penod, it was decreasing at an even faster rate in Wabakimi. A potential explanation could be natural fiel dynamics, in which cenain types of forests respond to changes in fuel dynamics or weather at different rates. Aitemately, it could simply reflect an increase in detection and reporiing of fires in remote areas of the province, which caused the provincial statistic to increase slightly over tirne. However, changes in provincial area bumed statistics due to more comprehensive reporting wouid not explain the increases in Wabakimi area bumed relative to provincial area bumed since the 19709, fiom which point reporting has most likely been both comprehensive and consistent.
The 2.4% of provincial area bumed that occurred in Wabakimi in the 1990s represents the single greatest percentage recorded over the seven decades. This may indicate Park Era changes in tire suppression policy. insight into the issue of changing suppression force can be gained fiom an examination of response times recorded in the fire reports.
(ii) Supprusion Force
The response time refers to the tirne elapsed between the report of the fire and commencement of initial attack. Response times are a proxy measure of suppression force and can be compared for different geographical areas as an indication of divergent suppression force over tirne. Response times were investigated for Wabakimi and for areas immediately adjacent to the Park.
Response times for a given area can be expected to fluctuate wildly from year to year, depending on the regional fire situation. Consequently, temporal changes in response times will reflect fire-season seventy rather than changes in suppression force. However, if suppression force has been consistent over tirne, then response tirnes for an area should be fhirly constant relative to other areas in the region. For example, consider a hypothetical region with two areas, 'A' and 'B'. Area 'A' contains several comrnunities and valued
timber, while area 'B' is an uninhabited wildemess. One would expect response times in
area 'A' to be shorter than those in area 'B,' indicating that area 'A' is given a higher priorïty
for fire suppression based on values at nsk. if' the identified values at risk have not changed
over the, and if suppression force has not been altered, then response times in area B
relative to area A should be constant. Conversely, if for example area 'B' was subject to
development or became a pnority for tirnber, then you wouîd expect response times in the
two areas to approach each other. Similarly, if area 'B' was identified as a protected area
where f~eshould burn fkely, then response times in area 'B' would become longer relative
to those in area 'A'. Examining relative response tirnes as an indication of changes in
suppression force helps to eliminate the confounding influence of severe fire years.
To examine relative changes in Wabakimi response times, fire report data had to be collected
for an area in the same region as the Park. Instead of compiling a new data set, a subset of an existing data set was used. Fire report data was readily available for several areas
immediately adjacent to the Park. This is because a data set had been compiled for al1 fires that originated within the minimum rectangle that could be fitted around the Park (Figure 14), which was used as a study area for a preliminary exploratory analysis of fire report data in the early stages of this research. Because the 'minimum rectangle' data had already been compiled, a subset of this dateset was easily defined by simply eliminating the fins that originated in Wabakimi (i.e., take the fire reports relevant to the entire area within the rectangle show in Figure 14, and subtract the fire reports relevant to Wabakimi). What remained was a data set containhg the fire reports for areas adjacent to the Park (Le., the anas in Figine 14 that are within the rectangle, but not coloured black). Response times were calculated separately for both the Park, and these additionai, smunding areas. Table 2 summarizes the response times for Wabakimi and surrounding areas.
Figure 14. Minimum Rectangle Shtdy Area
- t Sîudy Area It is ctear that response times in Wabakimi are higher compared to surrounding areas,
suggesting that the Park has received a lower level of suppression force (Figure 15). It is
also noteworthy that response times in Wabakirni have ken comistently higher han those
recorded in smunding areas throughout the entire time period such that the ratio of
Wabakimi average annual response tirnes to those of smunding areas bas demonstrated an
essentially flat trend over time (Figure 16). Further, the onset of this decreased suppression
force does not appear to coincide with either Park creation (Le. 1983) or recent attempts to
reintroduce £ire (Le. 1995,l996). Between 1976 and 1996, muai average response tirnes in
Wabakimi were, on average, 1.5 times longer than those in surrounding areas. The most
drastic discrepancy over the 2 1 years was in 1980 (i.e., pnor to the Park Era) when Wabakimi
annual average response times were almost 7 tirnes longer than those of surrounding areas.
Table 2. Remonse Times: Wabakimi Provincial Park vs. Smmdinn Areas ------I ! W abaicimi Rupouse Times (Days) lRuponse Times (Days) in Surroindiiig Areas ,I Average Median Max. StDev. # Fires iAveragt Median Mar. StDev. #Fires ------Figure 15. Annual Average Response Times: Wabakimi vs. Surroundhg Areas
ESZl Wabakirni -a- Surrounding Areas
Source: Ontario Forest Fire Reports 1976-1996
Figure 16. Ratio of Annual Average Response Times: Wabakimi vs. Surrounding Areas
Beginning of Park Era /-,- Tmd
Som:Ontario Forest Fin Reports (197649%) Wabakimi response times suggests that the area encompassed by Wabakimi has histoncally ken exposed to a lower level of suppression force relative to other anas in the province, most likely due to the Iack identified values, people, and property in the area. In this sense, fire suppression may have had less of an impact on the ecology of the Park, relative to other areas in Ontario. The constant response times over the 19764996 penod are evidence that
Park policy has yet to change the way &es are managed in the Park. This suggests that increases in area burned recorded in recent decades may be due to large-scale weather processes &or fuel dynamics. Given that Wabakimi area bumed as a percentage of Ontario area burned has increased in recent decades, and given that both Ontario and Wabakimi are subject to the same large-scale weather processes, weather may provide only a partial explanation of recent increases in area burned.
(iii) Ignition Source
Human activities may have also influenced the role of fire in Wabakimi by introducing a new ignition source. This can be examined in the 1976-96 petiod, during which time the Park area was increasingly wdfor recreation purposes. However, over this penod, lightning caused 93.10% of fires that originated in the Park and these hswere responsible for 99.98% of area bumed. This suggests that Wabakimi may represent a relatively undisturbed area in terms of ignition source, despite its use for recreation. This fact is even more evident in a cornparison of Wabakimi data with that of the immediately surroundhg area. in the additional area defined by the minimum rectangle that could be fit around the Park, lightning caused only 55.29% of &es, and these £ires were accountable for only 82.42% of area bmed.
In the areas immediately adjacent to Wabakimi there appears to have ken a greater hurnan influence on fue ignitions, with numerous €ires caused by residents, railway, industrial, hcendiary, and miscellaneous sources. The majonty of the area burned in this ma, not caused by lightning, resulted fiorn recreation (12.07%) and miscellaneous (5.35%) causes.
These results appear to indicate that, while areas adjacent to Wabakimi have been exposed to a greater intensity and diversity of human activities, the Park itself has not experienced the same human influences, as evidenced by the dominance of lightning as an ignition source over the 1976-1996 period during which time hurnan activity in the Park was most likely at its peak relative to earlier decades.
The fire report and map data, although relatively crude and imprecise for the pre- 1976 period, suggest that human activities may have been influencing the role of fire in the Park, possibly in combination with large-scale processes such as weather. Moreover, it appears that fire suppression is the stronger candidate as a potential human influence compared to increased ignitions. Chapter 3 provides a statistical analysis of changes in Wabakimi fire cycles before and after the introduction of fire suppression. However, the competing influence of weather must fint be considered. 2.3 Weather
While human influences, predorninantly fie suppression, may have altered the role of fire in
Wabakuni, it has also ken suggested that decreasing fïre occurrence in Ontario and Canada between the 1920s and 1970s is the result of trends in clirnate. Similarly, the increase since the 1970s may be a group of normal £ire years within a fire frequency that is homogenous over long temporal scales (Johnson 1992). According to Clark (1988), changes in climate observed in this century would have resulted in a 25% increase in fire fiequency had suppression never occurred.
Evidently, any attempt to reconstmct the fire hiçtory of an area and establish the impact of human influences requires a careful examination of the relationship between fire and weather.
Unfortunstely, reliable time-series of weather variables in remote areas Iike Wabakimi are rarely available over periods that would reveal long-term trends. For example, weather data for Wabakimi could only be obtained for the 19634996 period. MacDonald and Larsen
(1995) used tree-~grecords as a proxy measure for exarnining the relationship between climate and area burned in the boreal forest over decades or centuries. However, such an analysis was not within the scope of this study. Consequently, a quantitative analysis of the competing influence of long-term weather trends as a potential explanation for temporal changes in Wabakimi fie cycles was not conducted in this study. However, it is acknowledged that temporal changes in fie cycles could be the result of large-scale weather processes, perhaps in combination with human influences. While a quantitative analysis of weather over a long the-period is beyond the scope of this analysis, the specific relationship between fie and weather in this area can be explored fkom the 20 years of reiiable data that exists for Wabakimi. Although intuitive, it is worthwhile to investigate the linkage between climate variations and fie activity because: (1) it provides a fodrecord of the best available data on the fire/weather relationship in Wabakimi, thus providing the basis for future studies on the interaction between fire and weather in the Park;
(2) and it provides a means exarnining the fie/weather relationship in Wabakimi relative to other areas.
23.1 Relationship Between Fire and Weather in Wsbakimi
Fire report data has been used in recent years to establish relationships between fire and area bmed for parks in both Canada and the United States. Larsen and MacDonald (1995) studied the relationship between tree-ring widths, climate, and annual area bumed in Wood
Buffalo National Park (WBNP). Spearman rank correlations were calculated between annual area bumed and the mean fire season value of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the
Drought Code OC),and the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) in the fire year and the previous year for the period 1957-1989. Significant correlations between mual area bumed and the
PDSI (-0.52 p<0.01), DC (0.41 p<0.01), and SSR (0.62 p<0.001) showed that annual area bumed in WBNP was strongly related to seasonal-scale summer weather conditions. Balling et al. (1992) established a quantitative linkage between climatic variation and area burned in Yellowstone National Park, and examined trends over the past century in climate variables most strongly related to fire activity in the Park. Spearman rank correlations were conducted between climate variables (Le., rnean temperature, total precipitation, and Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI))and area burned. The strongest relationship was between area bumed and the PDSI (-0.55 pKO.0 1).
Because ara burned is not nomally distributed, Spearman Rank correlations were used to establish the relationship between weather variables and area burned. Although this represents a relatively primitive statistical procedure. it provides a valid means of quantifjhg the firelweather relationship. Given the scope of this study and the limited length of the time- series, more sophisticated methods of deding with the lack of nomlity in area burned data were not pursued.
2.3.2 Data
A.~uaiarea burned data for the Park were obtained fiom fke reports cove~gthe period
1976-1996. Weather data for the Park were obtained hmthe Ontario Ministry of Naturai
Resources (OMNR). The data represents the 1 o'clock (solar noon) weather as recorded at the Axmstrong Fire Base for each day of the fire season between 1963 and 1996. The data includes: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code @MC), the Drought Code @C), the htensity of Spread Index (ISI), the Buildup index (BUI), the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Daily Severity Rating index (DSR).
The Canadian fïre weather indices are defined and described by Van Wagner (1987): the
FFMC represents the moisture content of litter and other cured fine fuels in a forested stand,
in a layer of dry weight about 0.25 kg/m2; the DMC represents the moisture content of
loosely compacted decomposing organic matter weighg about 5 kg/rn2 when dry; the DC
represents a deep layer of compact organic matter weighing approxirnately 25 kg/m2 when dry; the ISI is a combination of wind and the FFMC that represents rate of spread alone,
without the influence of variable quantities of fuel; the BUI is a combination of the DMC and the DC that represents the total fuel available to the spreading fire; the FWI is a combination of the ISI and the BU1 that represents the htensity of the spreading fïre as energy output rate per unit length of fire fiont; and the DSR is a measure of control difficulty in temis of the
FWI. The DSR averaged for a whole fire season is tenned the Seasonal Severity Rating
(SSR), which represents an objective measure of hre weather fiom season to season.
2.3.3 Methods
Spearman rank correlations were calculated between annual ana bumed and various fie
season weather variables, including: average precipitation, total precipitation, totals of the
Canadian fie weather indices (FFMC,DMC, DC, ISI, BUI, FWI and DSR), and averages of the Canadian fire weather indices. Weather variables were also dehed to measure the percentage of days in the fie season where the recorded indices were in the low, moderate, high or extreme ranges. Table 3 defines the ranges of the indices.
pUIClru FWI Component l 1 FWI BUI ISI MC DMC DC 1 /LOW 1 0-3 0-20 0-2.2 0-80 0-15 0-140 1 ,,te 1 4-10 21-36 2.3-5.0 81-86 16-30 141-240 / 1 1-22 37-60 5-1-10 87-90 31-50 242-340 1 I iErtreme 1 23+ 61+ 10.1+ 91+ Sl+ 341+ j Source: OMNR 1990b
2.3.4 Results and Discussion
Results of the analysis showed that only those variables based on indices were significantly correlated with annual area burned in Wabakimi (Table 4). None of the basic weather variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed) were significantly correlated with area bumed in the Park. The strongest and most significant correlation was between annual area bumed and the percent of fire season days in the high range of the DufT
Moisture Code (DMC)(0.67 p Table 4. Spearman comlations between the annual area bumed h Wabakimi Provincial Park ( 1976-1996) and various fire season weather variables. Weather Variable Total DC Totai BUI Totai FWI Average M: Average FWI Percent of Days in the Low Range of the DMC Percent of Days in the Wh Range of the DMC Percent of Days JI the High Range of the DC Percent of Days in the Low Range of the BU1 Percent of Daya in the High Range of the BU1 [percent of Diy8 in the Bigb Range of the FWI 'pc0.05 *'p<0.01 "o~O.OO1 Figure 17. Spearman Correlation Between Area Burned 25 and ./o of Days in the Eiigh Range of the DMC Percent of Fire Season Days in Eiigh Range of DMC Note: The numbers bide the data points indicate the year of each observation The signifiant correlations between area burned and several weather variables indicate that annual area bumed in Wabakimi is related to seasonal-scale summer weather conditions. The similarity of these results to those of both Larsen and MacDonald (1995) and Balling et al. (1992) (Table 5), suggests that just as elsewhere, ma bumed is strongly influenced by weather . Table 5. Rdtshm Larsen and MacDonald (1995) and Bding et al. (1992): Speannan correlations between weattier variables and annual area bumed in Wood BufFalo National Park (1957-1989) and Yellowstone National Park ( 1895-1 989). j Shidy Variable Year t (n=33) Yar t-1 (a=33) ! j Wood BuIfslo National Park, PSDI -0.52** -0.29 i Larsen and MacDonald (1995) DC l I SSR 1 4 Varia blt Year t (n=9S) I I YeUowstone National Park, YB. Division: i Balling et al. (1992) PDSI -0.55** l Mean Temperature 0.3 1** l I Total Precipitation -0.54** I I SB. DMsion: 1 -û.608* 1 1 PSDI I I Mtan Ternperatilre 0.35+* 1 Total Precipitation -0.52** 1 t8kc Y: Max, Temperature O.%** 1 l I Total Precipitation -0.40** l 1 1 YJrrll: I Ma Temperature 0.54** I f Total Prccipitation -0.24* *p 2.4 Summary and Implications for Fire Management in Wabakimi It is clear that fire has a natural and critically important role to play in Wabakirni. The large, high intensity fires of the boreal forest contribute to ecosystem fimctioning by interacting with vegetation, soils and hydrology (Heinselman 197 1, Bonan and Shugart 1989, Kronberg and Fyfe 1992, Scotter 1972, Minshall et al. 1989, Knight et al. 1985). Fire may have profoundly influenced the species composition, successional patterns, and landscape mosaic in the Park (Johnson 1992, Robinson 1974, Frelich and Reich 1995, Bergeron 199 1). The dominance of black spruce throughout the Park may well be a result of fiequent fie. Humans have potentially been influencing the role of fie in Wabakimi to varying degrees for as long as 8,000 years (Adams 1980). The manipulation of fke by First Nations' groups in the boteai forest has been documented through studies of the Cree in Alberta (Lewis 1977). The Fur Trade rnay have influenced the role of fue indirectly, by altering First Nations' activities, and directly, by introducing new sources of ignition. Senlement may have also idluenced the role of fire by removing the influence of First Nations' burning and introducing the use of fire by settlers to clear land. However, it has been argued that Europeans did not have a significant impact on either First Nations' activities or as an ignition source prior to the Suppression Era (Johnson 1992, 1990). The introduction of organized fire suppression in the early 1900s marked a dramatic increase in the ability of humans to manipulate tire. The strict fue exclusion policy in Ontario between 19 17 and 1982 was in many ways limited by technological innovation. Given the unique characteristics of northwestem Ontario, characterized by an abundance of water, the rapid introduction of the power purnp in the 1920s, in combination with the systemic use of aircraft, was likely a key technological innovation. By the mid-1920s' the entire area of Wabakimi was king patrolled by aircraft and timely initial attack was occurring in the irnmediate vicinity of the Park (Minister of Lands and Forests 1926, 1927). The end of the 1920s was marked by the confident assertion by Ontario's fire management organization that fie could be controlled under most adverse conditions (Minister of Lands and Forests 1930). The effectiveness of Ontario's fire suppression organization continued to increase throughout the Suppression Era through the introduction of water bornbing; developments in organizational structure; the introduction of formal training and strategic planning; the evolution of computerized decision making tools; and the development of computerized prediction and detection technology. While the individual introduction of these innovations may have improved fire management effectiveness, there were simply improvernents, conversely, the combined introduction of the power pump and aircraft in the 1920s represented a radical change in the way fires were suppressed. This radical change formed the foundation of initial attack protocol upon which al1 other innovations have built. At present, initial attack of forest &es in the Intensive Protection Zone of Ontario generally involve the use of aircrafi to detect fies and transport crews; and the use of a power pump to suppress the fire. Water bombing and other technological innovations support and improve this process, but fiom a basic operational perspective, the hindamental approach has not changed since the late 1920s. While organized fire suppression began long before this tirne, the late 1920s represent a key pend in Ontario, at which point suppression likely began to be 'effective,' through the adoption of what are essentially modem approaches to £ire-fighting. A secondary key technological date rnay have ken 1948 or eariy 1950, when the Beaver aircraft and water bombing were introduced, respectively. However, during its early use, water bombing was ineffective at suppressing large, intense fies due to the dense smoke conditions created by these fires (Minister of Lands and Forests 1959). Consequently, water bombing most likely did not become a key factor in tire suppression until the 1980s when the CL-215 was introduced. However, at this point the move away fiom mandated tire exclusion begm in the Wabakimi area. While a certain level of suppression force rnay have ken obtained by the organization at identifiable points in history, the practical application of that force to al1 areas of the province was by no means guaranteed or consistent over the. For exarnple, during the 1930s. staff reductions meant that fires were not fought in Wabakimi (Minister of Lands and Forests 1934). It is possible that fire managers faced with limited resources prioritized the application of fire exclusion policy in the htensive Protection Zone based on values at nsk. The isolated and uninhabited Wabakimi wildemess may not have been considered a high priority for fie suppression pnor to the 1950s when cutting rights for the area were granted. However, assurning that Wabakimi was subjected to some level of suppression force during at least some portion of the past 90 years, the potential impacts of fie suppression on the ecological role of fire in the Park are numerous. The greatest single impact of fire suppression is commonly identified as fuel accumulation. It has been suggested that fuel accumulation results in uncontrollable, catastrophic fms with ecologically devastating consequences (Euler 1985, Goodman 1985, Arno and Brown 1989, Wein and Moore 1977, Heinselman 1971, Clark 1988, Baker 1994, Neuenschwander 1996). ûthen argue that fire suppression has not existed long enough to create abnod fuel accumulations (Romme and Despain 1989). Fue suppression may also inhibit the ability of species to penist (Bergeron 199 1) and could also decrease landscape diversity (Suffling 1990). The relatively ment designation of the area as a Park may have resuited in furthet changes in the nature of human influence on fire. Although the original Park area has been part of the Measured Fire Management Zone for fifieen years, evidence suggests that practical departure fiom fire exclusion has not yet occumd (Martel1 1994, Racey 1997, Johnson 1997). Consequently, the influence of humans in the Park Era will be manifest in the coming years as fire is re-introduced in Wabakimi. While £ire suppression may have diminished ecosystem integrity, the impacts of reintroducing fire could be equally penlous for Wabakimi. Once an ecosystem has ken altered from a natural state, fire can not be expected to operate naturally within it. The result could be succession to unnatual species (Bergeron 1991, Frelich and Reich 1993, or the creation of rock barrens that take centuries to recover (Gordon 1979, Parks Canada 1978). The removal of human influences (i.e. fire suppression), must be viewed, in and of itself, as another human influence that mut be carefully controlled. This depends to a large degree on quantimg the impacts of fie suppression and other historical human influences on the role of fire. One means of assessing the influences of humans on the role of fie is to examine changes in fie occurrence over periods subject to these influences. Historical £ire records can give insight into the impacts of humans in this century. Area burned statistics for Wabakimi are limited by the fact that numerous hsrnay not have ken detected in the eariy part of the century. Historical records rnay also be suspect due to their different sources (Le. maps and reports). Further, area burned data may reflect jurisdictional changes in reporthg or simply variations in detection ability due to social realities. Despite the data limitations, area burned statistics for Wabakirni (Domelly and Harrington 1978, Ontario Fue Reports 1976-1 996) and Ontario (OMNR 1991, Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 1997, Janser 1998) indicate reductions in area burned between 1920 and 1970 followed by increases in recent decades. This appears to support the theory that Are suppression resulted in fwl accumulations that have, in tu.,resulted in recent increases in fire occurrence. Area bumed statistics for Wabakirni also appear to demonstrate the influence of the Park Era on fire, as evidenced in the severity of area burned recorded in the 1990s as compared to provincial area burned. Historical fire reports can also provide insight into other Park characteristics. such as suppression force or ignition sources. Response times are a proxy measure of suppression force that can be compared for different geographical areas as an indication of divergent suppression force over tirne. Response times indicate that Wabakimi has ken subjected to a lower ievel of suppression force than immediately sunounding areas and that this lower level of suppression was constant throughout the 1976 to 1996 period. Over this period, response times in Wabakimi were, on average, 1.5 times longer than those recorded in surroundhg areas. in contrast to area bumed data, response times appear to support the argument that Park Era changes in fire management policy have not yet occurred. With regard to ignition sources, it appears that Wabakimi has been relatively undisturbed compared to surroundhg areas. Lightning caused over 90% of the fïres in Wabakimi between 1976 and 1996. Conversely, in areas immediately adjacent to the Park, only 55% percent of &es were caused by lightning, indicating an increased human influence in these adjacent areas. Although the role of fie in Wabakimi may have been altered by fire suppression, and area bumed data appear to support the hypothesis of suppression-induced fuel accumulation, it has been argued that recent increases in fie occurrence are the result of landscape level processes, namely, weather (Johnson 1992, Clark 1988). A detailed quantitative analysis of fire and weather in Wabakimi based on long-tenn data is beyond the scope of this study. However, a simple statisticd anaiysis of fire and weather variables over the 1976-96 pend indicates that annual area bmed in Wabakimi is related to seasonal-sale weather variables and that this relationship is not atypical. Temporal changes in fire cycles could be the result of large-scale weather processes, most likely in combination with human influences. [f humans have changed the role of fire in Wabakimi, then the decision to rernove human influences becomes complicated. Similarly, if fire cycles are dnven by large-scale processes like weather, then the impacts of reintroducing fire will depend on fihue changes in weather, and should not be expected to approxïmate conditions observed at some point in the past. The appropriate objective for fire management in Wabakimi, and the means of obtaining ît, will depend on the characteristics of the present ecosystem, the nature of fire processes, and the degree to which humans have altered these characteristics and processes. Chapter 3 provides the fint step in fire management planning for Wabakimi through a statistical analysis of temporal changes in historical fire cycles. Chapter 3 Stand Age-Class Distribution Analysis Pire has a natural and critically important role to play in Wabakimi Provincial Park. The description of the available information on the Park's ecology, presented in Chapter 2, indicated that two potential influences, narnely, humans and weather, may have changed the role of fire in Wabakirni. The following analysis pursues these preliminary indications with a statistical analysis of changes in historical fne cycles based on the negative exponential model of fire history and the recent innovations to this model that have been proposed by Reed et al. (1998). Stand age-classes provide a means of examining changes in tire cycles over time. The basis for the negative exponential model was introduced by Heinselman (1973); expanded by Van Wagner (1978) and Johnson (1979); and further developed and reviewed by Johnson and Van Wagner (1985) and Johnson and Gutsell (1994). The model has been used extensively to assess the impacts of humans and climate on fire cycles (Masters 1990, Johnson et al. 1990, McCune 1983, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 199 1, Power 1996). There are several problerns with the application of the model, including the assumption of age-independent flammability (Van Wagner 1978, Fryer and Johnson 1988, Johnson et al. 1 990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 1997, Yarie 198 1, Rornrne and Despain 1989); the assumption of spatially and temporally homogenous fire cycles (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994. Christensen 1988, Bunting 1996, Sufning 1990, Clark 1989, Boychuck et al. 1997); and censoring due to the mortaiity of trees (Fiiey 1995, Fox 1989). Reed et al. (1998) identified fbrther rnethodological problems, namely: buming hazard is not considered cumulatively over al1 tirne penods, resulting in under-estimation of the fire cycle in the moa recent epoch; the graphical identification of change points imposes selection bias; there is disregard for the contagion of £ire in adjacent stands; and there are no methods for determining confidence intervals and testing for significant differences in the fire cycles deterrnined for diEerent time periods. To overcome these problems, Reed et al. (1998) introduced a new variation on the methodology based on an overdispersed suMval modei with associated quasi-likelihood fùnction, and highlighted the need for an unbiased method of selecting change points. The following sections introduce the negative exponential model of fire history in terms of model development, application, methodological issues, and innovations. The traditional methods associated with the model. and the new methodology recently developed by Reed et ai. (1998). are applied to Wabakimi with attendant descriptions of the data, methods. and results. Finally, the hplications of these results for fire management in the Park are discussed. 3.1 The Negative Exponential Mode1 of Fire History The role of fire in a given ecosystem is generaliy descnbed in terms of its fire regime. According to Van Wagner (1983). a fire regime is composed of the histoncal averages of three fire attributes, namely: intensity, depth of bum, and Frequency. The fire fiequency of an area is particularly important with regard to fire management in parks, because it reflects spatial and temporal dserences in fire occurrence (Masters 1990). Fire fkequency (FF) is defined as the probability of an element in the study area buming per unit time (Johnson and Gutseii 1994). Fire fkquency can also be interpreted as the annual percent bumed (APB). or the proportion of the total forest that can be expected to burn each year. The £ire retum intend or fire cycle (b) is the average period of time between stand replacing fkes in the same stand, assurning al1 fires in the forest burn only once during the interval. Altematively. it is the average length of tirne required to bum an ara equal to the study area (Ward and Tithecott 1993). Both annual percent bumed and fire tiequency are the inverse of the fire cycle and average fire interval (Le., APB = FF = llb) (Johnson and Gutsell 1994). The exponentid age-class distribution mode1 of fie history can be used to infer whether or not the fire cycle of a particular landscape has been constant over time. The temporal stability of a fire cycle is important as an indication of the potentiai effécts of humans on the fire regime (Le., fire suppression) and as an indication of clhate-induced changes in the regime. Such information is important for effective fire management planning in protected areas. Heinselman (1973) provided the seminal work on fie history by assembling a stand-ongui map for the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in Minnesota. Representative of the time-since-the-lastare, these stands are essentiaily overlapping fie maps. Hehselman (1973) examined the stand age-classes def'ined by these maps as an indication of varying fire occurrence over tirne. Van Wager (1978) advanced this work by proposing the negative exponential as the expected age-class structure of a fire-dependent ecosystem. The model is based on a hypothetical forest with equal shed stands, site uniformity, and age-independent flarnmability. K the sarne number of stands bum at random every year, where the fire climate is constant from year to year, then fire arrivai in the stands over the approximates a Poisson process and the time between fires is approximated by the exponential distribution. Van Wagner (1978) stated that depamires fkom two of the assumptions of the model are fùndamentally acceptable: (1) variations in stand and fire sizes; and (2) buniing of multiple stands by individual fires. This is because the basic parameter of the model is area burned rather than fire fkequency. Similarly, annual variations in area bumed are said to be acceptable if both the long-tenn averages, and the fluctuations relative to the fire cycle, are srnail. However, the importance of site uniformity and age-independent flarnmability is stressed. Johnson (1979) reviewed the case where flammability is age-dependent and identifïed the Weibull as an appropriate distribution for this case. The Weibuii distribution differs from the negative exponential by including a shape parameter. It is a special case of the exponential model and can account for increasing burning hazard over time. Johnson and Van Wagner ( 1985) reviewed and clarified these two fire history models. They aiso presented graphicd techniques for determining changes in fire cycles; introduced methods for partitionhg mixed distributions; suggested testing for goodness of fit; and proposed the use of a maximum likelihood parameter estimate based on analyticai techniques. Johnson and Van Wagner (1985) clarified the ecological justification of the negative exponential, and stressed that the greater number of younger compared with older elements in the distribution is due to the annual depletion of each cohort, and is not due to age-dependent flammability (Johnson and Van Wagner 1985). The following summary of the model is based on the most recent comprehensive review of the above methods provided by Johnson and Gutsell(1994). The negative exponential mode1 of fire history involves two basic distributions: time-since-fire distribution (AO) and the fire interval distribution (fi@).Consider a randomly selected point in the forest, A(t) is the probability that the point wiil survive without buming longer than time t. Assuming that ail points bum independently of each other, A(î) is dso the proportion of the landscape that su~veslonger than time f (Figure 18). Figure 18. Time-Since-Fire Distribution The fire interval (i.e., the time between fires at a point) distribution, f(0, is the probability that a fire will burn the point during the interval t to t + dl. The data used in this study (i-e.. the age of Wabakimi's forests in 1978) is an ernpirical tirne-since-fire distribution, A(& The A(r) distribution is defined in Equation 1 : Where f is the time since the last fire and b is the fire cycle. The burning hazard, A(r), is the dope of the A() curve at time t, divided by A(). This 'instantaneous rate of buming' is the probability of a fire occuning in an interval, assuming suMval up to the beglluillig of the interval, and is given as (Equation 2): The Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the negative exponential parameter b is the rnean (Equation 3): where x, is the time-since-fire age, a,is the area of age-class i, r is the nurnber of age classes in the study, and N is the size of the study area. The fire cycle, parameter b, can be estimated tiom a graph of the A(i) distribution by locating 36.8% on the ordinate and reading fiom the curve to the abscissa, since 63.2% of al1 fire- initiated units will be younger than the sample mean. Johnson and Gutsell (1994) also suggest the use of linear regression methods to estimate parameters. The tirne-since-fire distribution can be linearized such that the dope of the regression line is equivalent to the fire cycle b. They indicate that differences in fire frequencies can be detennined through a cornparison of the two distributions with the Cox's F-test. If the cumulative form of the forest age-class distribution forms a straight line when piotted on semi-logarithmic axes, then the exponential mode1 is said to fit. A change in the dope implies that there has not been a constant fire cycle across the. Johnson and Gutseii (1994) addressed rnixed distributions. When plotted, breaks in the slope of the cumulative distribution indicate a mixeci distribution due to either spatial or temporal mixtures of fire frequencies. Johnson and Gutseil (1994) outline methods for partitioning the mixed distributions. Spatial partitioning is done first and if it does not result in individually homogenous distributions with a good statistical fit to the negative exponential accompanied by significantly different parameters amongst the sub-areas, t hen temporal partitioning can be attempted. This can be done by choosing the boundary dates of the time penod and eliminating the data outside of these dates then recalculating the frequencies of the new data set (Johnson and Van Wagner 1985). The parameten for the individual distnbutions can then be calculated. Altemately, Johnson and Gutsell(l994) suggest: The temporal partitioning of a mixed distribution can be done using the graphic method of Kao (1959). The time-since-fire distribution is plotted on semilog graph paper. Starting at each end of the plot, a tangent line is drawn. These two lines represent the two new distributions. By tracing from the intersection of these two iines to the right, the percentage of sarnples in each distribution can be read. By multiplying this by the total nurnber of samples, the nurnber in each distribution is determineci. Each of these new distributions is then plotted as a cumulative percentage of their total to give the new distribution. Finally, graphically homogenous distnbutions are produced. The negative exponential rnodel of fire history is a fairly new method that combines grsphical and analytical techniques. The following sections review the application of the negative exponential model; problems associated with it; and proposed innovations. 3.1.2 Mode1 Application Masters (1990) used the rnethods of Van Wagner (1978) and Van Wagner and Johnson (1985) to conduct a time-since-fire distribution analysis for Kootenay National Park, British Columbia Mer estimating the distnbution of the whole park, the distnbution was partitioned where sharp breaks ocnirred in its dope and individual fire cycles were determined for each epoch based on a Ieast squares regression. The data used in the regressions were taken fYom the time-since-fire distnbution plotted for the entire period, rather than form two partitioned distributions. Differences between regression dope coefficients were tested with a Student's t-test. Attempts to partition the distnbution spatially were unsuccessfùl. Masten (1990) concluded that changes in climate appeared to be responsible for the longer fire cycles in the park after 1788 and 1928, rather than human influences such as fire suppression. Johnson et ai. (1990) studied the efXects of humans and climate on fire frequency in Glacier National Park, British Columbia, using the methods of Johnson and Van Wagner (1985). Spatial partitioning of the data gave mixed the-since-fire distributions and none of the divisions or their combinations fit the negative exponential. The mixed time-since-fire distribution was partitioned based on temporal divisions using the graphitai method and maximum Iikelihood estimates were determined. Goodness of fit was tested using a Shapiro- Wilk (WE) test and the likeiihood ratio test was used to compare the two distributions. Both periods before and after the change point (1760) fit the negative exponential and the two fire cycles were significantly different (1 10 year after 1760 and 80 years before). As in the case of Masters (1990)- Johnson et al. (1990) concluded that mid-1700 change in fie cycle was related to a major change in climate associatd with the Little Ice Age rather than human influences, because humans did not increase fire frequency through ignitions and tire suppression was not effective dunng high risk periods of severe fire weather. McCune (1983) examined the fire cycle in the forests of the Bitterroot Canyons, Montana. The stand age distribution was divided into two parts, representing stands originating pre- and post fire suppression. The pre- 19 1 1 fire fkquency was calculated by setting aside points bumed after 1910. Average stand age was then calculated as the surn of the age-class midpoints weighted by their fiequencies. The post-1910 fire cycle was calculated as the proportion of stands bumed in that period, divided by the total number of years, to get the probability of a stand buming in a single year. The fire cycle before 19 1 1 was shown to be 58 years, while afterwards the fire cycle increased to approximately 7500 years. McCune (1983) concluded that the reintroduction of fire is the only means of reestablishing the naturai balance of vegetation, ftels and insects in protected areas. Johnson and Larsen (1991) analyzed fire fkquencies in the Kananaskis River Watershed, Alberta. Spatially hornogenous distributions were partitioned graphically by plotting the time- sinceofire distribution on semi-log paper and drawing a tangent line ffom each end of the plot. Using this method, the two lines represent the two new distributions, and their intersection can be used to detennine the percent of samples in each distribution. Each new distribution is then plotted as a cumulative percentage of their total. The parameter of the negative exponential was estimated by maximum Iikelihood for each separate distribution, and goodness of fit was tested using a Shapiro-Wiik (WE) test. The likelihood ratio was used to compare the two distributions. The fire cycles for 1600- 1729 and 1730- 1980 were 50 years and 90 years, respectively. The fire cycle estimates for each temporai division were found to be significantly different. Bergeron (1991) analyzed fie regimes at the southem Iimit of the bord forest, northwestern Quebec, to compare island and lakeshore fire cycles. Fie history was reconstnicted using fire reports and fire-sw methods. Neither lakeshore nor island distributions showed constant fire frequency when the cumulative distribution of area bumed per year was plotted on semilog paper, consequently, the data were partitioned into periods with constant fire Cequency. The parameters were estimated for the new tirne-since-fie-distributions by nonlinear regression. On the lakeshore, fire cycles were 99 years between 1871 and 1988 and 63 years between 1760-1 870. On islands, the fire cycles were 1 12 and 74 years before and afler 187 1, respective1y. Power (1996) conducted a fire history of the 400 km2Terra Nova National Park, in the bord forest of Newfoundland. When plotted on semi-log graph paper, a distinct change in fire fiequency was evident in 1 925. 3.1.3 Methodological Issues Problems associated with the application of the negative exponential model include: the assumption of age-independent Bamrnability; the assumption of spatially and temporally homogenous fire cycles; and censoring due to the mortality of trees. (i) Flammability and Age The assumption of age-independent flammabiiity is the most difficult issue with the negative exponential model (Van Wagner 1 978). Age-independent flamrnability has generally been accepted in the literature as a characteristic of fire in the boreai forest. Large and intense stand-replacing crown fires are generally associated with extreme weather conditions, which may make vegetation stnicture or age irrelevant mer and Johnson 1988, Johnson et al. 1990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 1997). However, age-dependent flammability has been suggested by others (Yarie 198 1, Rome and Despain 1989). Johnson and Larsen (1991) tested for the correlation of ages in adjacent patches of different time-since-fire as an indication of whether or not fires were indifferent to patch age. It was show that fires buming fiom younger or older stands did not stop, except as would be expected by chance, in younger or older stands. These results are consistent with the assumption of a constant hazard in the negative exponential model. (in Homogeneity Criteria There are two important stability cnteria necessary for the application of the negative exponential (Van Wagner 1978, Johnson and Gutselî 1994, Johnson and Van Wagner 1985): (1) the fie regirne must be constant across the entire study ara; and (2) on average, each element in the study area must have a constant fire regime throughout the period of study. The issue of steady-state conditions in ecosystems, characterized by constant fire cycles over time, is a contentious one, and evidence to the contrary has abounded (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994. Christensen 1988. Bunting 1996. Suffling 1990). Some studies have specifically examined the issue of homogeneity with regard to the negative exponential model (Clark 1989 and Boychuck et al. 1997). Clark (1 989) tested the stability assumption by cornparhg disturbance distributions fiom different penods characterized by different climate conditions. Clark (1989) showed that renewal theory can be used to calculate the expected number of fires on a given piece of land and over some tirne interval. given a disturbance probability that is not constant. Results indicated that the assumption of stationary fire regimes is untenable and that climatic shifts ranging from decades to centuries produce substantially direrent fire regimes. Boychuck et al. (1997) developed and us4 a simulation model to investigate the extent to which the age class distribution of a flammable forest will be exponential. Results indicated that a stable forest age distribution should not be expected even at large des. In other words, the age class distribution of a very large forest at some point in time is not likely to fit an exponential distribution due to spatial (fires grow to bum adjacent areas) and temporal (the proportion of forest burned varies from year to year) correlation in burned area. (ïii) Censoring Censoring poses a third problem with the negative exponential model. Fox (1989) argues that the mortality of trees results in an upward bias in estirnates of the disturbance rate. This is because the indicators of older disturbances gradually disappear. Fimey (1995) specincally questions the validity of the negative exponential model, given that the mortality of trees results in censoring of older observations fiom the distribution. This results in a false trend that could increase the potential of erroneously rejection the fit of the negative exponential model for a given forest age-class distribution (Fiiey 1995). Fimey (1995) identified three situations where censoring can occur: (1) censoring results when stand-age becomes smaller than the minimum mapping unit (MMU) and if the total area of an age-class is fi-agmented into patches each smailer than the MMU; (2) censoring occun because the potential age-range of the distribution is limited by the practical and theoretical longevity of trees; and (3) Fdilure censoring results because older trees die at increasing rates from various agents that are often independent of the dynarnic of interest. The censored distribution of forest age-classes will have a dinerent cumulative form than the theoreticai cumulative distribution A(& If the original age distribution is a negative exponential f(t) truncated at time t*. its cumulative C(Z) is derived as (Equation 4) (Finney 1995) : According to Finney (1995) the fire history methods described by Johnson and Gutseii (1994) compare estimates of the cumulative of an inherently tmncated distribution Co with the theoretical cumulative of a non-truncated distribution A(r). This results in the misinterpretation of the natural downward curve of C(r), as a "trend". Fmey (1995) cautions that this misinterpretation will be severe in the case of long £ire cycles and truncation at a young age. Fhey (1995) applied the truncated methods to the age-class distribution of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (Heinselman 1973) and concluded that the fit to the negative exponential did not substantiate rejection of the "constant fire cycle before settlement" hypothesis. This conclusion suggest that trends evident in other work (Johnson et al. 1990, Masters 1990, Bergeron 199 1, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Johnson et al. 1995) may be questionable. 3.1.4 MethodologicaI Innovations Reed et al. (1998) identifid fiirther problems with the methods reviewed by Johnson and Gutsell (1994): (i) fidure to consider hazard cumulatively; (ü) lack of methods for testing statistical significance; (iü) disregard for the contagion of fire in adjacent stands; and (iv) bias in the selection of change points. Fustly, traditional rnethods do not consider hazard cumulatively, over numerous time periods. Further, they do not provide measures of confidence intervals or statistical significance. By assuming that each time period, once partitioned, represents the entire population, there is an inherent assumption about stands originating in earlierlolder time periods, narnely: ihat these stands are not subject to the risk of fire in laterlnewer time periods, which they live through (Reed et al. 1998). This results in an underestimation of the tire cycle in the most recent period. This is because, in al1 epochs except the eariiest/oldest one, there are forest areas which survived thrmgh, but did not origrnate in, the epoch in question. By normalizing each epoch in the partition, as suggested by Johnson and Van Wagner (1985) and Johnson and Gutseii (1 994), the surviving forest fiom the earliedolder epoch is ignored. Consequently, while the area of the forest which burned in the given epoch is correctly observeci, the area which survived is not. Shce the observations on area suMved are too small, the estimate of fire probability will be artificially eievated, and the fie cycle wiU be underestimated (Reed et ai. 1998). Any method of parameter estimation (Le. graphical, MLE, or regression) based on normalized cumulative frequencies will be wrong. According to Reed et al. (1995), the graphical rnethod is easily corrected by simply estimating the fire hazard rate in the epochs as the slope of the line segments corresponding to these epochs in the identified partition on the overd cumulative frequency plot. The same is true for the regression methods, which remove some of the imprecision in fitting a line. However, regression methods serve only as an accurate means of fitting a line and should not be misconstrued as a means of obtaining confidence lirnits or statisticai ngor (Reed et al. 1995). The graphitai method, cornbined with regression to estimate slopes, provides a valid estimate of fire cycles but fails to provide any measure of precision or rneans of testing whether or not a change in fire frequency is statisticaily signifiant. In response to these issues, Reed et al. (1 998) propose an overdispersed model with resulting quasi-likelihood fùnction. The quasi likelihood function allows for the possibility of contagion effects between forest areas (overdispersion). The model assumes constant £ire hazard over time periods separated by change points and de& with the marginal probability of a fire at any given point. The model also provides a statistically valid means of testing the nul1 hypothesis that there are no change points in hi~toti~alforest fire frequency versus the alternative hypothesis of one change point with two distinct fire fkquencies. A test of the methodology demonstrated considerably diferent results nom those obtained by traditional methods (Johnson and Larsen 1991). An application of the new methods to Wabakimi data is conducted in the following sections. 3.2 Data Ontario Forest Resource Inventory (FRI) data was obtained for the approximately 40,000 stands located in Wabakimi Provincial Park. Compiled on an ongoing basis by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR),the FR1 database contains descriptive information on Ontario's forests and is used primarily for timber management. Forest stands and other areas are classified through the interpretation of aerial photographs coupled with field sarnpling (OMNR 1996. 1978). Foresters assisted by experienced forest technicians undertake field sarnpling. Foresters or forest technicians with a familiarity of the ground conditions in the area, complete photo interpretation. The stands are described based on field sarnples, field expenence, stereograms, and stocking-density curves (OMNR 1996, 1978). The FRI contains data on stand composition, size, and age, among other variables. As previously rnentioned, information on the ages and sizes of the stands pemits the construction of a tirne-since-fie distribution for the Park. The suitability of forest inventory data to the analysis of stand age-class distributions has been questioned (Johnson et al. 1990, Alexander 1980). The data become suspect when stand ages have been delineated primarily from photo interpretation. However, the inventory data used in this study are the product of both field sampling and photo interpretation. Although there are no specific studies on the accuracy of FR.I data in the entire Wabakimi area, one study addressed this issue for a smd portion of the park. Morrow (1980) conducted an assessrnent of the forest stands of the Caribou East Working Circle, an area now encompassed by the southem portion of Wabakirni Provincial Park. Morrow (1980) noted that the FR1 inventory data for the southern section of the study area, which borders on the railway, had been overestimated by an average of 10 to 15 years. However. stand ages in the northem section were much more accurate, with the only major discrepancy in the 12W age- class, which was underestimated by about 8 years. It can be hypothesized that the discrepancies in the south are a product of the railway, which created a vegetation structure more conducive to misinterpretation due to its relative uniqueness. If this is true, then it is reasonable to assume that the FR1 data for the rest of the Park is comparable in accuracy to that of the northem sections of this particular study area. Despite potential inaccuracies, the FR1 represents the only data that is both readily available and suited to fire history anaiysis. While the construction of a detailed and accurate stand ongin map of Wabakimi based on extensive field work was beyond the sape and budget of this study, this data provides a first step in that direction. Extensive field work and research on the ecology of the Park will be required in the near future in order to implement a fire management plan, thus creating the opportunity to condua field-checks of the FRI data and improve stand-age estimates. The FRI data is also problematic due do its staggered compilation dates. As discussed in Section 2.1.2, portions of the Park extend into 5 dEerent management units. Since FR1 surveying is conduaed on an ongoing basis, the date of RU compilation varies by management unit. The FRI data for Wabakirni was compiled in 1978, 1 982, 1987. and 1994. Over 50% of the data (MU 172) was compiled in 1978. and the ages for the rest of the Park were 'rolled' back to this year. This resulted in small areas having a negative age, due to disturbances that occurred between 1978 and their compilation dates. These data were discarded (Table 6). In the process of adjusting the ages, a large disturbed area was identified as having occurred in MU 684 after 1978. This contradicted reliable area-bumed statistics, and thus implied the presence of harvesting in the area. For this reason, data from MU 684. which represents the northwest corner of the Park, were excluded fiom fùrther analysis. Table 6. Area with Negative Ages Due to Age Adjustment to 1978 IMU Area mertaml Comaiiation Date 1 Note: The compilation dates were determincd fmm the document Forest Rtsourœ of Ontario (OMNR 1996) A final issue with the FR1 data emerged due to its compilation on paper maps up to the late 1980s. Since this FRI data is not spatially geo-referenced, the stands within the Park could not be easily defined. Consequently, for mapsheets that straddle the Park boundary, the proportion contained within the Park was estimateci and this was then multiplieci by the ara of each polygon in the forest inventory for that mapsheet. 3.3 Methods As a prelirninary analysis, the traditional methods of the negative exponentiai mode1 of fire history, described in Section 3.1 (Van Wagner 1978, Johnson and Van Wagner 1985, Johnson and Gutseli 1994), were applied to an extent, as per the limitations identified by Reed et al. (1998). The new innovations outlined by Reed et al. (1998) were then applied to the data. 3.3.1 Traditional Methodology The Forest Resource Inventory (RU) data on Wabakirni's approximately 40.000 stands were used to calculate the area of the park characterized by twenty different age-classes, each ten years in length. As per Johnson and Larsen (1991), ten year age-classes were used to srnooth the effects of approxirnate stand dates, and irregularities in the frequency data caused by large fires. The time-since-fire distribution was plotted on semi-log graph paper to check for temporal differences in fire fkequencies. A break in the distribution indicated two time penods. As per Reed et al. (1995). the dopes of the fine segments correspondhg to the identified partition on the overd cumulative fiequency plot were used to provide estimates of the fire hazard rate in the two separate time periods and their reciprocals provided estimates of the fire cycle. This aspect of the graphical analysis dinen fkom Johnson and Gutseiî's (1994) methodology which involved separating the two distributions; plotting them as a cumulative percentage of their individuai totals; and estirnahg the parameten of the negative exponential by maximum likelihood, for each individuai partition. The dopes of the line segments were calculated by a lest squares Iinear regression. Reed et al. (1995) caution that the use of regression methods should be recognized as an arbitrary procedure, no more supenor than fiaing the line segments by eye. Consequently, they should not be rnisconstrued as providing objectivity or confidence intenmls for the hazard rates. While regression was used to estirnate the lines, it is stressed that the procedure was not based on the principles of statistical inference. It should be noted that the Park area was assumed to be spatially homogenous and spatial partitioning was not attempted. Spatial partitioning was not attempted for two reason: firstly, it was deemed unnecessary (as descnbed beiow); and secondly, it was complicated by data limitations. Spatial partitioning was deemed unnecessary due to the characteristics of the study area. In Chapter 2, Wabakimi is descnbed as existing within a single homogenous ecoregion, as defined by both Hills (1959) and Rowe (1972). The distribution of land types and species composition also implies spatial homogeneity, as evidenced in the FR1 data. Further, the authors of most studies specific to the Park comment on the homogeneity of the landscape (Scott 199 1, Noble IWO). Ecoregional-level homogeneity is considered an acceptable spatial scale since the negative exponential model of fire history is intended as a landscape level andysis, the vaiidity of which is undennined by detailed, site-specific divisions of the data (Archibald 1997). This appears to be supported by numerous studies in which spatial partitioning has proven unsuccesstùl (Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Masters 1990, Johnson et al. 1990). There is also other evidence that spatial partitioning may not be necessary. Dansereau and Bergeron (1993) found that in general, the behaviour of large fires appears to be independent of topography. Fryer and Johnson (1988) found that in general, topography influences the age of the vegetation by determining the area bumed, however both topography and &el types can become irrelevant in some ecosystems, particularly given wreme conditions. Accordhg to Bergeron (199 1). a regime of large, very intense fires tends to homogenize the effects of fire among al1 topographical units and fuel types throughout the landscape. This evidence suggests that the assumption of spatial homogeneity in Wabakirni is a valid one. Unfortunately, data limitations precluded the use of exploratory spatial partitions to support this assumption. Spatial partitioning can be used to reflect altitude, aspect, valley systems and mountain ranges. Stream order, or climatic boundaries (Johnson et al. 1990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1). However, the RU data did not provide a simple means of partitioning the data by any of these suggested divisions. Given that there is a strong indication that the area is homogenous, other options for partitioning were not pursued. 3.3.2 New Methodology While the traditional methodology applied as above provides a valid means of estimating fire cycles in different epochs, it does not provide a statidicauy rigorous means of testing for significant differences between these fire cycles. Further, it does not permit the calculation of confidence intervals. Conceptuaily, the traditional method is also flawed because it assumes that older forests are subject to the buming hazard only in the epoch that they originated in. In redit-, they have experienced the hazard in subsequent epochs as well. Traditional methods also fail to recognize fire as a contagious process and involve a biased selection of change points. In light of these shortcornings, the new methodology proposed by Reed et al. (1998) was applied to the Wabakimi data. (i) Parameter Estimation The new methodology assumes that the buming hazard may have changed over the Lifetimes of older forests. It also accounts for the spread of fie, or the contagion effect. If there has been a spatiaily and tempodly constant buming hazard, the age-class distribution will be related to the negative exponential suMval distributio~with a su~vorfiinction A(I) described by Equation 1 in Section 3.1.1. If the buming hazard is subject to a change, then the two epochs created by this change point (P) will each have their own distinct buming hazards (Le. A, and hz) and the probability of surviving from t years ago until the present (suMvor bnction) becornes (Equation 5a,b): Note that Epoch 1 is the most recent epoch (between the most recent change point and the present); Epoch 2 represent the earlier epoch; and the change point occurred PT years ago, where T is the width of the age-class in years. The maximum Wreiiiood estimates (MLE's) of the two survival probabilities, for Epochs 1 and 2, are respectively (Equations 6 & 7): Where A, (14 ...m) denotes the area in age class i, with m being the index of the oldest age class (Le., al1 trees older than mT years, where T is the width of the age classes in years). Accordhg to Reed et al. (1998). this explains what would happen to a unit area of forest over any T year penod. It could either survive and become T years older (with probability SI or SJ),or it could bum and be replaced with a new forest with probability 1- Sr or 1- S2. Reed et al. (1998) cal1 the suMval or burning over a T-yw period a 'fire trial', with Si and S2 the proportions of area units facing fire trials which suMve in each of the two epochs. The denominator in the equation for S2 represents the number of known area units that faced £ire trials in Epoch 2. The MLE S, is simply the proportion of area units known to have faced fire trials in Epoch 1, which in fact survived. The MLE of the burning hazard, hi, from the invariance property of MLE's, is (Equation 8): (ii) Test of Significance The nul1 hypothesis, Ho,is that the buming hazard was constant at al1 times in the past. The alternative hypothesis, Hl, is that the hazard changed at some pre-specified point, PT years ago . VS. The quasi-likelihood ratio test statistic is based on the magnitude of the reduction in deviance, relative to the estimate of the overdispenion parameter (Equation 1O): Where a' is an estirnate of the overdispersion parameter (Equation 1 1qb.c) and DrDI the difference between the scaled deviances corresponding to Ho and Hl (Equation 12% b). Where A, and O, are the estimated expected area and proportion in age-class i using the parameter estimates under HI.Specifically, Where Sa is the MLE for the whole period, under (Equation 12b): (iii) Confidence Intervals The asyrnptotic theory of maximum likelihood estimation allows the computation of approximate confidence intervais for Si and S2. For SIthe 100 (1- a)% confidence interval A involves finding the two roots (on either side of the maximum S,) of Equation 13. For S2 the 100 (1- a)% confidence interval involves finding the two roots (on either side of the A maximum S,) of Equation 14. Where and i,are the MLEs. F is the percentage point f5om an F-distribution and is the estimate of the Pearson overdispersion parameter 0'. (iv) Identification of the Change Point For the above analysis, Reed et al. (1 998) require that change points be selected independently from the data. Although this was not specified in the traditional rnethods (Van Wagner 1978, Johnson and Van Wagner 1985, Johnson and Gutsell 1994) it is necessary in order to avoid selection bias. The selection of a change point can reflect any of the potential infiuences on the role of fire that were reviewed in Chapter 2 (i.e.. human or weather). Since historical weather data for the Wabakimi ara were only available for the 1963-1996 period, a change point was chosen to reflect potential hurnan infiuences. While the onsa of specific human influences can be documented from historical reports and records, the relevance of these dates to small areas of the province is difticult to substantiate. As discussed in Chapter 2, in the case of fire management, suppression force and poiicy may not have been applied equally to ail areas of the province in any given tirne period. Despite these limitations, 1928 (i.e., change point P=5) was identified as a signifiant date for Wabakimi. The selection of 1928 as a change point was based on evidence in historical govemment reports reviewed in Chapter 2 which suggest that radical advances in provincial fire suppression techniques at this time rnay have resulted in an appreciable impact on fire tiequency derthis date. By 1928, initial attack by aircraft was being carried out in a timely fashion in the immediate vicinity of the Park; the entire Park area was within the Western Patrol (i.e., detection); and given the abundance of lakes characteristics of northwestem Ontario, the power pump had emerged as an integral piece of equipment. Further, in 1930 the fire management organization asserted with confidence that it was capable of controlling fires in most adverse conditions (Minister of Lands and Forests 1930). Other technological advances occurred throughout the history of Ontario's fire management organization. However, as argued in Chapter 2, these advances represented improvements in the basic initial attack approach, rather than radical changes. For this reason, it may be unlikely that the marginal impact of their individuai introduction rivals the radical change in fire suppression capabilities that occurred in the 1920s with the simultaneous introduction of aircraft and purnps. Unfortunateiy, while the 1928 change point can be identified for the Intensive Protection Zone, its exact relevance to Wabakimi remains somewhat ambiguous. Given that Wabakimi represented an uninhabited wildemess where timber rights were not allocated until 1957 (KilIan 1993), it may have been considered a low priority for suppression pnor to the 1950s. The analysis of response times in Chapter 2 revealed that even &et the allocation of timber rights, response times in Wabakimi were lower than those in surrounding areas. While the degree of fire suppression in Wabakimi der 1928 may not have been as severe as it was in other areas of the province, the 1928 change point was selected nonetheless because it represented the first documented radical change in fire suppression capabilities. Conversely, there is no documented evidence on the potentiality of selective application of suppression force in Wabakimi prior to 1976 (note: response times are only available for the post- 1976 penod). Because it was based on documented, rather than speculative evidence, the 1928 change point was considered preferable to one which reflected the allocation of tirnber nghts. 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Traditional Methods The stand age-class distribution for Wabakimi Provincial Park covenng the period 1778- 1978 is shown in Figure 19. This is essentidly a record of fire over time. Prior to 1898, the stands in the Park appear to follow a nahiral exponential age-class structure. The data suggests that area burned began to decline around the tum of the century, with a drarnatic reduction between 1918 and 1958. The time-since-fire distribution for Wabakirni Provincial Park was plotted on semi-log graph paper. Visual inspection of the plot indicated a temporal division in the data between 1908 and 1928. Regression was used to estimate the slopes of the two line segments for the two periods, namely 1928- 1978 and 1858- 1927. Although there are both graphical techniques (Johnson and Gutseil 1994) and statistical software packages (eg., SAS) capable of determining the exact location of the partition. the 1928 change point was used here to afFord cornparisons with the methods of Reed et ai. (1998) which are applied in Section 3.4.2. Figure 19. Wabakimi Age-Class Distribution (Excluding MU 684 & Adjusting Ages to 1978) Source: Ontario Forest Resom Inventory The time-since-fire distribution for Wabakimi Provincial Park is shown in Figure 20. Between 1928 and 1978 the fire cycle was 304.79 years, while between 1858 and 1927, it was 30.93 years. The fire cycle prior to 1858 could not be estirnated due to a lack of data. Figure 20. Time-Since-Fire Distribution for Wabakimi Provincial Park 18381978 Age (Years) Note: Data points below O. 1% cumulative frequency are not shown Source: Ontano Forest Resource Inventory 3.4.2 New Methodology The methods of Reed et al. (1998) were used to provide a statistical estimation of the fire cycle before and after the change point 1928. Before 1928, the fire cycle was 36.99 years, while between 1928 and 1978, it was 359.66 years. The fire cycles before and after the 1928 change point were found to be significantly dinerent at the 99% confidence level. Therefore, the nul1 hypothesis. Ho: that the fire Frequencies in Epochs one and two are equai, was rejected, since the quasi-likelihood ratio test statistic (A = 36.14) exceeded the cntical value of F for 1, m-2- 1 degrees of fieedom at the 99% level. The 95% confidence intervais for the fire cycles (FC) were estimated as per Reed et al. FCi:years 161.21 to 1074.46 FC2: years 26.16 to 54.66 While the confidence intervals are wide for the most recent epoch where there is less data, historical fire report and map data provide insight into the relevance of the confidence intervals. The fire history map data discussed in Chapter 2, combined with fire report data for the 1977-78 period, were used to calculate the average annual percent bumed over the 1928- 1978 period. The average annuai percent bumed, 0. IW%, indicates that it would take 789.96 years to burn the entire area of the Park. This means that fire cycles did not exceed 789.96 years dunng the 1928-78 period, given that historical reports can not overestimate area bumed, and thus represent the minimum average annual percent bumed that occurred during the period. While the considerably longer fire cycle in the most recent epoch suggests that fire suppression after 1928 significantly changed the fire cycle in Wabakimi Provincial Park, this information does not provide an objective for fbture fire management in the Park. It also does not reveal the ecological impacts of a lengthened fire cycle. However, it provides a starting point, fiom which fùrther study and anaiysis of the specific ecologicai characteristics of the Park can be designecl and interpreted. One limitation of the FRI data is that the most recent epoch only refers to the 1928-1978 period. Fominately, reliable area bumed statistics for the Park are available for 1976- 1996. This provides a means of interpreting how the role of fire in the Park may have changed since the most recent epoch (i.e., since 1978). Fire cycles were calculated for the 1979-94 period and for the 1979-96 period. The fire cycle was first calculated without the years 1995 and 1996 because they represented extremely severe £ire years, that were originally thought to reflect altered fire management policy in the Park Era, although analysis of response times suggested othenvise. Nevertheless, by leaving them out, the impacts of only one or two severe fire years on the fire cycle can be assessed. The average annual percent bumed over the 1979-94 period was 0.13 5%. At this rate, it would take 742.17 years to bum the entire area of the Park. If data from 1995 and 1996 are included, the average annual percent burned is 0.496%. At this rate it would take only 201 -81 years to bum the entire area of the Park. These results are not directly comparable with the fire cycles estimated with the stand age- class distribution analysis. However, they do suggest that the fire cycle for the 1979-96 period was shorter than that estimated for the 1928-1978 period. The occurrence of shorter fire cycles in the most recent histoncal period, despite the increases in suppression force that should have been expected between 1928 and 1996 as a result of technologicai innovation and the allocation of timber values, suggests that ment increases in area bumed may indicate the influence of large scaie processes such as weather. Altemately, it may hdicate natural or sup pression-induced fuel dynamics. Analyis of area bumed data for the rnost recent period (i.e. 1979-96) also indicates that fire cycles in the Park can change significantly based on only one or two severe tire years. Consequently impending management decisions have the potential for drastic, irrevenible, and long-terni alteration of the ecology and process of fire in the Park. Table 7 surnmarizes the fie cycles computed for Wabakimi over vanous time periods and 60m various methods and Table 8 surnmarizes the results of other studies. Table 7. Wabakimi Fire Cycles (Years) / Method Pre-1928 192û-1978 1979-1994 197901996 1 Reed et al. (1998) 36.99 359.66 Regrusion 30.93 304.79 789.96 742.17 201.81 Table 8. Fire history mdies that have estimated thc natural !ire retum interval for Ontario Study Fire Return Approximate Distance Direction Interval (Frorn Wabakimi) (From Wabakimi) Woods and Day, 1977 78 years Quetic0 Park 250 km SouthWest Burgess and Methven, 1972 37 yean Petawawa 900 km Southeast Alexander et al., 1977 30 years Algoma 640km Southeast Lynham and Stocks, 199 1 20 years Sachigo 350 km Northwest Swain, 1973 65 years NE Minnesota 400 km South Cwynar, 1977 70 years Algonquin 880 km Southeast Maclean and &deIl. 1955 1 30-125 years Clay E3elt 480 km East Source: Ward and Tithecott ( 1993) Influence of the Railway On issue of concem was the infiuence of the transcontinental railway, constnicted between 19 1O and 19 15, which runs through the southern portion of the park. It is possible that the fire cycle in the pre-1928 period could be imificially shortened due to fires caused by the railway between 19 10 and 1927. To investigate this issue, the data fiom the FR1 basemaps adjacent to the railway were removed fiom the data set and the anaiysis was repeated. The area removed corresponds to a distance of approxirnately 15 km above and below the railway. Results indicate that the railway did not have a significant impact on the fire cycle in the pre- 1928 penod. Both regression methods and the analysis as per Reed et al. (1998) yielded virtually identical fire cycle estimates for this period: 30.93 (including railway data) and 3 1.27 (excluding railway data) using regression methods; and, 36.99 years (including railway data) and 37.83 years (excluding railway data) using the new methodology. Overdispersion Parameter The overdispersion parameter is used to incorporate overdispersion or (variance) which becomes inflated when the contagion of fire is taken into account (Reed et al. 1998). The overdisperson parameter used in the above anaiysis and calculated from equations 1 1 a-c was 13,693S2. In the case of a perfect exponential age-class structure and a fire cycle equivalent to that of Epoch 1 (Le.. 359.66). the overdispersion parameter would have been 637,050.52. Altemately. in the case of a perfect exponential age-class structure and a fire cycle equivalent to Epoch 2 (Le.. 36.99) the overdispersion parameter would have been 445.9 1. The analysis as per Reed et ai. (1998) resulted in rejection of the nuii hypothesis that fie cycles were the same before and after the 1928 change point. This analysis reveaied some methodological issues concerning the assumption of constant hatard rates. A hypothetical Iandscape 1,000 km2 in sue with a constant disturbance cycle of 120 years was taken fiom Johnson et al. (1995) in order to determine what would result if the methodology was applied to a perfect exponential age-class stmcture. Figure 21 shows the A(t) distribution for their hypothetical landscape. Figure 2 1. Hypothetical A(t) III 1 1 O III 1 1 Tirne Since Last Disturbance Source: Johnson et al. (1995) #en this hypothetical Iandscape is subjected to the analysis as per Reed et al. (1998). the individual estimates of Aj (J2quation 15) and Sj (Equation 16) for each age class are constant. as one would expezt (Figures 22 and 23). Where k6' is the hazard rate estimated for each age class (i), and where s~'represent the conditional probability that an area wkch having suMved unbumed to the time jT years ago, suMves the next T years Le. to the time (j-1)Tyears ago (Reed et al. 1998). Figure 22. Hypothetical Aj iT Yean Ano (i=1.2. ....m-11 Source: Johnson et al. (1995) Figure 23. Hypothetical Sj jT Years Ago (j=1,2, ...,rn-1) Source: Johnson et al. (1995) Figures 22 and 23 show that landscapes with an exponentiai age-class structures will produce constant hazard rate estimates for individual jT periods, where j is the age class and T is the width of the age-class. Under the assumption of a change point with two distinct hazard rates, one would expect the sü) values to dEer on either side of the change point, but to be roughly homogenous in each epoch (Reed 1998). This appears to be the case for data pubiished by Masters (1990). as shown in figures 24 and 25. Figure 24. Masters (1990) Âj jT Years Ago (j=1,2, ...ml) Source: Masters ( 1990) As discussed in Section 3.1.2, Masten (1990) conducted a stand age-class distribution analysis for Kootenay National Park, British Columbia. Three epochs were identified using the methods reviewed by Johnson and GutseIi (1 994), namely: 1988- 1928, 1928-1 788, and before 1788. Although they Vary widely, the l? and su) values are relatively homogenous within these epochs. The data was compileci in 1988, and there were 24 age-classes, each T=20 years in length, therefore, the epochs are equivalent to the x-axis values 20-60 (Epoch l), 80-200 (Epoch 2). and 20W (Epoch 3) on the graphs. This data appears to support assumptions regarding constant hazard rates within identined epochs. Figure 25. Masters (1990) Sj jT Years Ago (i=1,2, ... ml) Sourcc: Masters (1990) When the Wabakimi data is examined for these expected A? and sü) results, a different trend emerges (Figures 26, 27). Rather than showuig two epochs with different, but constant, hazard rates before and der 1928, the A? and sü'indicate three epochs: 1948- 1978. 1858- 1948, and before 1858. Between 1948 and 1978, the individual hazard rates are extremely low and demonstrate the expected constant trend. However, between 1858 and 1948 the hazard rate demonstrates a decreasing trend that follows an almost Iinear rate. Prior to 1858, the data is very erratic, most likely due to the extremely small areas in the older age-classes, so it is diffiailt to interpret. Figure 26. Wabakimi Aj 000000 O O O O C MW- O\ rn bQ\ -c. C œ œ - jT Years Ago From 1978 (j=1,2,... m-1) Figure 27. Wabakimi Sj jT Years Ago From 1978 (j=1,2, ... m-1) The individual, ten-year penod hazard rates appear to indicate that the appropnate change point, with regard to human influences should have been 1948. This is not surprising given the possibility that fire suppression in Wabakimi was not considered a priority until cutting nghts were granted in the 1950s. However, the decreasing hazard rate over the ninety-year penod 1858- 1948, which most likely preceded fire suppression efforts, appears to contradict assumptions about constant hazard rates. A possible expianation for the almost linear rate of decrease in hazard over the 1858- 1948 penod could be the intluence of large-scale trends in weather. It may be possible that fire suppression has not decreased hazard rates in Wabakimi, but rather suppression may have simply maintained hazard rates at naturally low levels. If this is the case, then increases in area burned that have been observed in recent decades in both Wabakimi and Ontario may be an indication of a natural fluctuation in the hazard rate that has begun to exceed the abiiity of the fire management organization to maintain it at what were the naturdy low rates of the 1930s and 40s. The trend between 1858 and 1948 may indicate natural variation in the fire cycle (i.e., 24.8 to 23 1 -5 yean) and provide some indication of the natural rate at which it can be expected to change. 3.5 Summary and Implications for Fire Management in Wabakimi The negative exponential model is a stochastic model of fire history. It uses the stand-age- class data on forested landscapes, and their associated distribution, to assess the extent to which the fire cycle has been constant over time. The temporal stability of a fire cycle is important as an indication of the impacts of human activities and weather on the fire regime. This information is particularly vaiuable for fire management decision making in wilderness areas or parks. The basis for the negative exponential model was introdud by Heinselman (1973); expanded by Van Wagner (1978) and Johnson (1979); and further developed and reviewed by Johnson and Van Wagner (1985) and Johnson and Gutsell (1994). The model has been used extensively to asses the impacts of humans and climate on fie cycles (Masters 1990, Johnson et ai. 1990. McCune 1983, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 199 1, Power 1996). There are three main problems with the application of the model: the assumption of age- independent flarnmability; the assumption of spatially and temporally stable fire cycles; and censoring due to the mortality of trees. The model assurnption of age-independent flammability remains contentious (Van Wagner 1978, Fryer and Johnson 1988, Johnson et al. 1990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 1997, Yarie 198 1, Romme and Despain 1989) and the inherent censoring associated with forest age-ciass distributions rnay contribute to erroneous conclusions regarding fire cycles by creating false trends (Finney 1995, Fox 1989). Further, the assumption of a temporaiiy stable fire cycle may not be tenable given ecological realities (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994, Christensen 1988, Bunting 19%. Sufning 1990, Clark 1989, Boychuck et al. 1997). Reed et ai. (1998) identified fûrther rnethodological problems, namely: hazard is not considered curnulatively over al1 time periods, resulting in over-estimation of the fire cycle in earlier penods; the graphical identification of change points represents selection bias; and there are no methods for determining confidence intends and testing for significant differences in the fire cycles determined for difTerent time periods. To overcome these problems, Reed et al. (1998) introduced a new variation on the methodology based on an overdispersed sunival model with associated quasi-iikelihood fiinction, as well as an unbiased method of selecting change points. The analysis as per Reed et al. (1998) suggested that fire cycles in Wabakimi are significantly different before (36.99 years) and after (359.66 years) 1928, which marked the potentiai introduction of significant fire suppression force. While the pre-1928 fire cycle most likely reflects conditions prior to the sigruticant manipulation of fire by humans, it does not necessarily represent the desired, or 'natural' fire cycle, for which the present Park should be managed. in introducing the negative exponential mode1 of fire history, Van Wagner (1978) cautioned against attempts to identie the "best" answer through an analysis of historical fire cycles, since "the red optimum fire cycle, is, presumably, that cycle that maintains the forest in question in the best possible ecological state." (Van Wagner 1978 :226). Examination of trends in the hazard rate suggest the need for fùrther caution in detennining the relevance of historical fire cycles to the fbture of fire management in Wabakimi. The hazard rate in Wabakimi decreased at an almost tinear rate between 1858 and 1948. Between 1948 and 1978, the hazard rate was both low and constant, and may indicate the ability of fire suppression to maintain what were already low hazard rates of the 1930s and 1940s. If this is true, increases in area bumed that have been observed in recent decades in both Ontario and Wabakimi are potential indicators that fire suppression efforts may not be capable of maintainhg what may have been the naturaily (and perhaps temporarily) low hazard rates of a specific historical period, into the new rnille~ium. However, knowledge of histond fire cycles does provide a starting point from which fire management planning can begin. At the most basic level, this analysis suggests the need for a cautious approach to fire management in Wabakimi, given that the present state of the Park may partially be an artifact of 50 or more years of fire suppression, and consequently, "fiee- to-burn" fires should not be expected to behave 'naturaüy'. This anaiysis also suggests that there is considerable natural temporal variation in hazard rates that appear to follow distinct trends, possibly driven by large-scale weather processes. Consequently, it may be futile to attempt to manage for particular fire cycles. Chapter 4 Fire Management in Protected Areas Through an examination of information on the Park's ecology, human influences. and weather, the matenal discussed in Chapter 2 revealed that human and weather influences have most likely been changing the role of fire in Wabakimi. Analysis of historia1 fire reports and maps relevant to the Park fùrther confirmed the likelihood of this assumption. A statistical analysis of stand age-classes in Chapter 3 showed that fire cycles were significantly different before and after 1928. The relevance of these historical fire cycles to the fùture of Wabakimi must be viewed in light of the daunting theoreticai and practical issues that characterize £ire management in protected areas. Fire management in protected areas is both controvenial and cornplex. It illuminates an extremely contentious segment of environmental thought, namely: the fundamental meanings of both wilderness and conservation. Theoretically, permitting fire to funaion freely in certain designated areas may be questionable due to the nature of tire as a landscape process; the nature of parks as scarce resources; and the infiuence of humans. The clear articulation of a management objective for reintroducing the naturai role of fire is also problematic due to the ambiguity of the term 'natural' and the dynamic nature of ecosystems (Bonnickson 1985. Salwasser 1984, Christensen 1988, Bunting 1996, Baker 1989, Johnson 1995. Clark 1988. Suffling 1990). Objectives based on the principles of ecosystem health (e.g.. species diversity or species persistence) (Bunting 1996, Suffling 1988, Turner and Romme 1994). as opposed to defining arnbiguous 'natural' conditions, are promising, but require a detaiied understanding of the specitic ecosystem in question. The objective must also be compatible with other park objectives, such as the provision of caribou habitat. Practical concems are equaily abundant. The implementation of a fie management policy is hampered by the degree to which the ecosystem has been innuenceci by humans, given that this previous ecosystem aiteration may affect friture fire behaviour and intensity (Williams 1995, Turner and Rornrne 1995). Fire suppression may have created a landscape temporarily incapable of supporting 'natural' fire. However, attempts to recreate the natural condition through prescribed fire may only represent additional disruption of an aiready damaged ecosystem (Baker 1994). Further, the operational and economic implications of the fire management plan must be considered (Tithecott and DUM 1994). These theoretical (Section 4.1) and practical (Section 4.2) issues associated with fire management in protected areas, and their implications for Wabakirni (Section 4.3) are reviewed below. 4.1 Theoretical Issues The reintroduction of £ire in protected areas is based on the following logic: if fire is a natural process; and the goal of parks is to protect natural features and processes; then fire should be part of the disturbance regime in these areas. The tenability of this simple view is complicated by severai factors. Firstly, fire is a natural process thal functions on a IQndScc~pe seale. Its ability to operate in an equivalent capacity within srnall isolated remnants of the bord forest isquestionable. Secondly, parksprotectnahiralfeatures that areoften scarce (e.g., old growth habitat). This scarcity did not exist on the original landscape scale where fire once operated ffeely. Thirdly, humans have practiced extensive manipulation of fire. especially in the past century. Sirnply removhg their influence may not result in a 'natural' condition where £ire can be expected to behave 'naturally'. Despite these difficulties, the concept of dowing fire to bum fieely in protected areas has become extremely popular in recent decades. In general, policy development in Canada has lagged behind the United States, where the ecological influences of fire were first illurninated in the 1963 Leopold Report (Leopold et al. 1963). In the management of Canada's National Parks. changing attitudes toward fire began in the 1970s. however fire was not officially recognized as an important element of the ecosystem until the 1986 release of a comprehensive fire policy review entitled, Keepers of the Fhe (Woodley 1995). In Ontario, similar developments were evidenced in the 1978 Ontario Provincial Pd: PImning and Mmgement Policies (OMNR 1978b). which documented guidelines specific to the six different classes of parks defined in the Provincial Parks Policy, approved by cabinet in 1978. For Wildemess Parks, it States: The occurrence of natural fire in certain wilderness environments is recognized as a process integral to an evolving natural succession. A tire management plan wiii be prepared for each Wiidemess Park. Subject to such plans, the followïng are general guidelines for fire management in Wildemess Parks. Naturai fires in Wildemess, Nature Resewe, or Histohl Zones wiil nonnaily be ailowed to burn undisturbed uniess they threaten human Me, Access Zones, or lands outside the Park. Natural fies threatening the values for which Nature Reserve or Historiai Zones have been estabiished will be suppressed. Prescribed buming may be carried out in in Wildemess, Nature Reserve, or Historical Zones to sirnulate natural 6re when desirable. Fues in Access Zones, and fies resulting from human causes in other zones, wiil be suppressed. Fire suppression techniques will have as minimal effect as possible on the wildemess environment. Such means of suppression as buildozing, and water bombing with chernical additives, will not be permitted except in critical situations (OMNR lW8b). A direct application of this 20 year-old policy has recently been announced for Wabakimi. The 1997 expansion of the Park was premised on the ideai of protecting a naturaily fitnctioning remnant of the bord forest ecosystem. It has been explicitly stated that fire will have a strong ecological role in Wabakirni Provincial Park. A Fire Management Strategy dl be developed and implernented which reflects the naturai role of £ire in the bord forest and wili include simply allowing some fires to bum (OMNR 1996). There are two notable issues with the above policy. Firstly, despite twenty years of experirnentation with fire management in the protected areas of North Amencan, the basic Ontario policy has not evolved or changed in any signifiant way since its inception in 1978, although it was restateci in 1992 (Ringham 1998). This is in wntrast to the United States where it has been acknowledged that a pre-specified policy to ignore a fie, or allow it to burn, is non-management and an unacceptable response (Fischer 1984). Secondly, this policy refers solely to Wildemess Park, Nature Reserve, or Historical Zone designations. Despite this, it is being applied to the entire area of Wabakimi, the majority of which has been classed as a Natural Environment Park. Only the original Park (155,000 hectares) is classed as a Wildemess Park. Widemess Parks are considered substantial areas where the forces of nature are permitted to tiinction 6eely. Conversely, Natural Environment Parks are intended to provide high quality raxeational and educationai experiences (OMNR 198 1). In addition to these broad policy concems and discrepancies, there are specific problems with implementing fie management in protected areas. The most prominent of these involves specifjhg the pnmary objective of the policy. This fire management objective must also be compatible with secondary park objectives, which may require management for specific values, such as caribou habitat. 4.1.1 Determining the Primary Objective A Fire Management Strategy reflecting the naturai role of fire in the boreal forest wiii be developed and implemented for Wabakimi. This statement requires some intrinsic understanding of what is natural. In reality, there are numerous conditions that may be natural. Consequently, the specific objective of the Park's fie management policy will involve an anthropocentric and subjective definition of this desired 'naturai' condition. This baseiine could be the pre-settlement condition or the hypothetical condition expected to have occurred in the absence of settlement (Bonnicksen 1985). The objective may also be based on alternative ecological values or indicators of health. (i) Natu ral Pire Cyclej Managing for the completely 'natural' role of fire, may be interpreted as managing for the 'natural' fire cycle. The pre-suppression tire cycle for Wabakimi was esthated to be 36.99 years, however the debate over the stability of disturbance in ecosystems makes its relevance to the present state of the ecosystem unclear. Salwasser (1994) and Christensen (1988) caution against attempting to regulate ecosystems to produce constant desired conditions. According to Christensen (1988) the tendency to view fire cycles as precisely regulated in pariicular ecosystems is misguideci. Efforts to maintain fie retum intervals that have historically characterized the ecosystem wuld be destineci to fail. According to Bunting (1996), system variability is dependent on the variability in a number of factors such as f5e severity, annual area affécted, and pattern of fire. This varïabiiity is stressed by Christensen (1988) as an essential component in the maintenance of fire-prone ecosystems which must be explicitly recognized by management programs: 1 would argue that while a detailed picture of some particular cornmunity stxucture at some partiailar time in the past may be of interest in relations to a number of questions, restoration of communities to a specific primeval structure is neither practical nor desirable. Chance variations in patterns of disturbance might result in more or less random fluctuations in the shape of the distribution over short periods (10-100 years), whereas clirnatic shifts and historicai events such as the advmt of Native Americans might result in directional and long-term shifts. In the case of many national park wildemess areas, it would appear that fire exclusion policies have resulted in a shift in such fiequency distributions. Should the goal be to restore a particular fiequency distribution? Such distributions were undoubtedly shift'ig over short and long thne des; the choice of a particular distribution would be arbitrary (Christensen 1988:79). In the case of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Baker (1989) concluded that extensive pre- settlement fluctuation in the landscape meant that there is no single pre-settlement structure to restore. In his explanation of the exponential mode1 of fire history Van Wagner (1978) cautioned that there is no guarantee that a study of recent fire regimes will yield an optimal solution. "The real optimum fie cycle, is, presumably, that cycle that maintains the forest in question in the best possible ecological state" (Van Wagner 1978: 226). According to Johnson (1995). most forests experience one or more changes in disturbance fkequency within the lifetime of the oldest trees. Given that these changes are associated with large-scale meteorological processes, it may be fùtile to identify a natural regime and impossible, regardless of fire suppression policies, to manipulate the fire cycle (Johnson et al. 1995). Clark (1988) also concluded that resurrection of historid fire regimes could be difficult or impossible within the constraints of anomalous twentieth century climate. Ln the past, sirnilar changes in climate have resulted in different fire regimes. Similarly, Suffling (1990) argues that assumptions about climate change mean that a 'let-burn' policy will not promote a naturai fire regime and attempts to replicate historical conditions or define a 'pristine' state are futile given variations in recent centuries. Suffling (1990) suggests that perhaps there are major cyclic fire outbreaks, fluctuating between extreme States, such that the adoption of an average fire retum interval would be both arbitrary and unnaturai. Others argue that attempts to recreate an ecosystem state prior to European influence or to preserve select natural processes fail to approach historic wildemess conditions, since the human element has been dismissed (Pyne 1995). Management for the natural landscape mosaic offers an alternative objective that focuses on the ecosystern as a whole, rather than on the process of fire. Bergeron et al. (1997) and Bergeron and Dansereau (1993) exarnined historical forest composition in an effort to determine appropriate management objectives. An evaluation of forest composition over time was cornpleted through a reconstmction of both fie regimes and natural forest succession. Bergeron et al. (1997) claim that by associating observed compositions with different age classes of the negative exponential model, it is possible to reconstnia what the natural forest mosaic would be under constant fire cycles. The long-term maintenance of this composition is presented as a management objective which would assure habitat diversity comparable to the natural mosaic. However, Johnson et al. (1994) caution about the hazards of using static age structure to infer stand dynamics. The static approach assumes that the lack of trees in any age class at the present, is evidence that there never were any individuais in that age class. Further, the 'natural mosaic' objective may contradia the natural fke management policy that it is intended to guide, since immediate reintroduction of fire in the Park would destroy the physicai evidence necessary to determine the natural structure and fùnction of the ecosystem (Bonnicksen and Stone 1985). If the objective is to develop quantitative standards of naturainess based on the landscape mosaic in order to properly manage fire, then fire must be excluded until this ecological information has been gathered. While the use of a naturai mosaic as a badine, rather than a desired 'naturd fire cycle" implies an ecosystem approach, it is still premised on the subjective concept of 'natural'. Some managers, such as the Canadian Park Service, have recognized that ecosystems are dynarnic, self-organizing entities, and do not attempt to recreate a particular state or era deemed natural or appropriate (Woodley 1995). Rather than recreating a natural condition, fire management in protected areas could be premised on the maintenance of ecological heaith, with objectives determined from ecological principles or identified scarce ecologicai values. Suffling (1 990) argues for identigng acceptable limits of variation in the disturbance mosaic over time based on: historical representation of ecosystem types in the landscape; on aesthetic or other cultural values; or on the need to preserve certain valued ecosystem types. Alternative objectives could include management for dynamic stability, species diversity, or thresholds of landscape connectivity. (iii) Aiternative Objectives Bunting (1 996) suggests the 'dynamic stability of comrnunities' as a measure of whether or not a natural ecosystem process* such as fire, is fiiffilling it's role in the ecosystem. Dynamic stability is said to occur when, on average, the annual area burned is offset by successional recovery. The main shortcornhg of the 'dynamic stability' measure involves issues of scale. For example, while dynamic stability may not occur over decades or centuries. it may exist on extremely vast spatial or temporal scales which can not be reproduced in relatively small confined areas such as parks over the relatively short planning periods employed by humans. Suffling (1988) applied the Shannon index of landscape diversity to data from northwestem Ontario. Results identified intermediate-level disturbance, as the only level capable of ensuring a rich mixture of pioneer and mature communities. Landscape diversity is reduced if the kequency of disturbance irnpedes the development of mature communities. Conversely, fire exclusion results in the disappearance of pioneer communities. Thus, while fire suppression will increase landscape divenity in extremely fie dependent ecosystems, it will reduce diversity in areas with intermediate to low disturbance. Given that Parks represent =ce resources, the desire to maximize landscape diversity in these areas could supplant 'the natural fire regime' as a management objective, since these two objectives may contlict. Turner and Romme (1994) introduce the idea of a critical threshold of landscape co~ectivity, based on the following three assertions: (1) because stand replacing crown fires can not occur above some hypothetical bel moisture threshold, once that threshold has been exceeded the spatial distribution of fbeis becomes irrelevant; (2) sirnilarly, below some hypothetical fiel moisture, large crown fires becorne inevitable, given an ignition source, and landscape pattern is also helevant; (3) however, when &el moisture is beiween these thresholds, landscape pattern constrains crown fire behaviour (Turner and Romrne 1994). It has been argueci that fire suppression has essentially increased landscape connectivity, thus providing for extreme fire behaviour dunng weather conditions that would have normally precluded this behaviour. An alternative fire management objective could be to ensure Iandscape comectivity that maxirnizes constraints on crown fire behaviour, thus limiting extreme fire behaviour to periods of extreme weather, as per the condition prior to fire suppression. The objective of a park tire management policy may be based on the natural fire cycle, the natural landscape mosaic. or alternative ecologicai principles, such as dynamic stability, landscape diversity, or landscape comectivity. Regardless of the chosen objective, the selection process is plagued with ambiguity. This ambiguity is fùrther complicated by secondary objectives, such as the protection of caribou. 4.1.2 Incorporating Secondary Objectives Although Wabakimi Provincial Park will provide protection for a range of natural and cultural values, the greatest single justification for the Park's expansion was its suitability as prime habitat for a herd of roughly 250 woodland caribou which use the area as a winter feeding ground and as a corridor for seasonal migrations (MNR 1996, Beihn 1995, Taylor 1995, 1995b, Lompart 1994 ). Woodland caribou are a designated 'vulnerable species' with less than 20,000 animals remaining in Ontario. The relationship between woodland caribou and fie has been the topic of a contentious debate for many years. It has been argueci that fire lirnits the premce of caribou by destroying their main winter food source. When viewed on a short-term basis (Le., 50 years or less), fires have the potential to limit the ability of the ecosystem to support caribou by destroying lichens and other forage. It is generaily accepted that the woodland caribou is replaced by moose afler fire (Parks Canada 1978, Fritz et al. 1993, Schaefer and Pruitt 199 1). Fritz et al. (1993) conducted an andysis of the influence of forest fire on moose and woodland caribou populations between 1786 and 19 1 1. Results indicated that habitat change caused by increased forest fires correlated with obsewed declines in caribou populations. The reintroduction of fire is supporteci by the argument that lichens are not essential for caribou in the winter and that fire is in fact essential for the long-term productivity of the bord forest and its associated habitat diversity, which in tum characterires caribou winter range (Klein 1982, Schaefer and Pruitt 1991). Altematively, fire suppression may not adversely affect caribou. While a reduction in lichen productivity has been observed in old forest stands (Klein 1982, Schaefer and Pruitt 199 1). it has been suggested that lichen woodlands are in faa self-perpetuating in the absence of fire (Momeau and Payette 1989). It is evident that fie management for woodland caribou must balance short-term detrimental impacts of fire with long-term benetits. With respect to Wabakimi, the dual management objectives of both establishing the natural role of fire and protecting woodland caribou habitat, could potentially conflict. Curnmings (1995) identified the desired regirne for caribou protection in Wabakirni as a regime of controlled tires buming wintenng areas on a rotation basis. Bergemd (1989) identifid the ideal fire interval for caribou as 78 or 66 years, given that lichen supplies reach their maximum utiiity for caribou approxirnately 50 years der fire. The preferred habitat of caribou is Jack pine stands with a canopy of < 7û?!. Old age jack pine forests have no appreciable supply of lichens. For Wabakirni, Bergerud (1989) recommended that : a pro- of controlled burning be comrnenced...Closed canopy forests are increasing and will not be used by caribou.. ..This habitat needs to be systematically bumed. These should be hot fires that destroy the humus leading to more exposed bedrock, reduced canopies, and longer intervals for canopy closure. A cornputer analysis should be done to determine the size of the bum and the rotation period needed to maximize dispersion, on a continuum base, [jack pine] stands of approximateiy 4060 years of age (<70% canopy). (Bergerud 1989: 1 9). 4.2 Practical Issues The implementation of a natural fire management objective is complicated. Once an objective has been chosen, (e.g, to re-introduce a desired fire cycle. or create a desired mosaic). its attainment is complicated by the present state of the landscape, which is an artifact of accumulated human activities. Objectives may be achieved through fire suppression, natural fire, or prescnbed tire, in any combination. The proper mk of these three options is crucial. As discussed in Chapter 2, while fire exclusion can be detrimental to ecosystem health, too much fire can be equally perilous. Heinselman (1971) outlined six fire policy alternatives for wildemess management: 1) Fue exclusion and acceptame of changes in plant and animai wmrnu~ties. 2) Selective exclusion, allowing 'de' lightning fires and uncontrollable fires to bum. 3) Same as 2) but introduce enough prescribed fïre to assure the natural tire regime. 4) Su ppress al1 &es and du plicate natural regime with prescribed-controlled fires. 5) Allow ali wildfires to burn unchecked unless lûe or values are threatened. 6) Full-de rnanipulation/management by mechanical and chernical means in an attempt to produce the desired vegetation with the tools of applied forestry. Heinselman (197 1) favored options three and four. Rejecting the othen as either inconsistent with the parks philosophy, or detrimental to people and ecosystems. The appropriate tire management recipe for Wabakimi will depend on the present state of the ecosystem and the degree to which humans have influenced the historical role of fire in the Park. Many argue that decades of fire exclusion have aitered the natural mosaic, or juxtaposition of different stand age-classes, which once served to contain fïre spread under ail but the most extreme conditions by fiagrnenting continuous, highly flammable stands (Williams 1995, Turner and Romrne 1994). The connectivity of vast flammable areas means that fbes cm occur on an unnaturd sddntensity and du~gnonnally unconducive weather conditions, with unnaturd and potentially disastrous results. If suppression has changed the age-class structure, then it rnay have created a more comected landscape that is more susceptible to crown fires at times other than just extreme bumîng conditions that once limited the occurrence of crown fires. Consequently, a paradox emerges, where the £ire needed to restore the natural landscape mosaic becornes a threat to it, given the altered state of the landscape. This is particularly significant in parks, where fies must conform to administrative boundaries, yet the expanse of comected and flammable stands may not. From an operational perspective, the high intensity, stand-replacing fires commonly observed in the bord forest, and necessary with regard to ecological processes, are difncult to control, particularly if the landscape mosaic has been altered by fire suppression (Williams 1995). However, the use of smail prescribed fires to restore the landscape rnay produce unwanted results. Baker (1994) equates the use of small prescnbed-fires to the impacts characterized by settlement: increased tire frequency and reduced fire size. Baker (1994) used a GIS- simulation mode1 to analyze the effects of reinstating a natural fire regime in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area. Results indicated that restoration would proceed more quickly if mean fire size was increased due to suppression induced fuel build-up. Baker (1994) concluded that prescnbed bums should only be used for species-level management or specified &el reduction; and while fire suppression can significantly alter the landscape structure, it can be restored within 50-70 years by reinstating the natural fire regime. In addition to ecological and operational issues concerning the practical implementation of a fire management objective, there are also policy issues. Whiie Park policy may support alternative fire management objectives for Wabakimi, tire management policy may not. In Wabakimi, this is particularly important from an economic perspective, as noted by the Aviation and Fire Management Branch of the OMNR: Fire management fiinding presently coma with a set of objectives that do not accommodate the management of large fires or the development of nature like fire regimes within this part of the province. The intensive fire management strategy in place today is designed to minimize the cost exposure of Base and EFF pmergency Fire Fighting] hnding. EFF does not presently accommodate fùnding of monitoring or subsequent expenditures related to a non fire suppression strategy to protect values. EFF does not provide for prescribed &es as a mechanism to achieve resource management objectives. New park management strategies regardless of the boundary must address the associated funding implications necessary to allow the management of vegetation using fire (Tithecott and DUM 1994). Clearly, the prevailing uncertainty regarding practical implementation of natural fire management demands a precautionary approach. Van Wagner and Methven (1 980) suggest that such policies should be implemented slowly over long planning horizons. This gradua1 approach is wnsidered acceptable given the time scale of Canadian ecosystems. Further, given the nature of fie, charact erized by irreversible consequences, the precautionary principle is paramount. Changing policy related to fire wili not be possible without a fiIl discussion of the objectives and impacts of a new strategy. Much work wiU be required before this can happen. One or two severe fire years during some ''interim'' liberal fire policy while the plan is under development could remove al1 future flexibiiity, and such an "interim" strategy would not be tenable (Tithecott and DUM 1994). 4.3 Summary and Implications for Fire Management in Wabakimi Weather and human influences appear to have been changing the role of fie in Wabakimi. The analysis of stand age-classes presented in Chapter 3 showed that fïre cycles were significantly dEerent before and afler 1928. Examination of trends in the estimated hazard rate showed that hazard had been low and relatively constant between 1948 and 1978, which may reflect fire suppression efforts. However, between 1858 and 1948, the estimated hazard rate in the Park decreased at an almost hear rate frorn 0.04 (or a 24.8 year tire cycle) to 0.00056 (or a 23 1.5 year fie cycle). The relevance of these historical fire cycles to the fùture of Wabakirni must be viewed in light of the daunting theoretical and practical issues that characterize fire management in protected areas. Permitting fire to bum freely in certain designated areas is complicated by the nature of fire as a landscape process; the nature of parks as scarce resources; and the influence of humans. As discussed in Chapter 2, a single fire in the bord forest may conceivably exceed 1,000,000 hectares, or the entire area of the Park. Hiaorical tires reported in Ontario have exceeded 5 18,000 hectares (Richardson 1928). or the equivdent of approximately 80% of Wabakimi's forested area. In more ment years (i.e., 1980-1 994), individual fires have bumed areas in al1 three of Ontario's fire management zones (Le. intensive, extensive or measured) equivalent to approximately 20% of Wabakimi's forested area, despite the divergent management objectives in these three zones. Given that fires of this scale represent a characteristic of natural fire in the boreal forest, the appropriateness of establishing natural tire in small isolated islands of what was once a vast undisturbed landscape becornes questionable. This is particularly true given that parks are scarce resources, which provide a range of values, both anthropocentric and intnnsic. The appropriateness of bunùng large portions of protected areas must be evaluated in light of the overall supply of such areas and the associated diverse values and seMces that they provide. At some point. the marginal cost of allowing a unit area to bum may exceed the marginal benefits, despite ecological ttndamentals regarding fire processes. The decision to allow even one fire to bum in Wabakimi has the potential for drastic, long-tem, and potentially irreversible alteration of the scarce ecological values and seMces provided by the Park. While allowing fires to bum freely in protected areas may be questionable, there are also numerous specific hurdles to implementing a non-exclusion fire management plan for Wabakimi. The overall concept of wilderness fire management within the Ontario parks policy should be restated, since in its present form it is not applicable to the majority of Wabakimi, which is designated as a Natural Environment Park (OMNR 1978b. Ringham 1998). Further, the present wording of the policy does not reflect the current knowledge and thinking conceming fire management in protected areas. Changes in provincial fire management policy wüi also be necessary to support this parks poiicy. Once a general poiicy has been established, a specific objective for Wabakimi will have to be subjectively determined. The present objective of the policy has been articulateci as management for the 'naturai' role of fire (OMNR 1996). This implies an intrinsic understanding of what is 'natural'. This could be based on the 'natural' fire cycle, or naturaf range of ike cycles, estimatecl in Chapter 3. Altemately, the 'nahird' landscape mosaic could be identifiecl as an objective. The issue of steady-state conditions in ecosystems characterized by constant fire cycles or ecosystem characteristics over time is a contentious one and evîdence to the contrary has abounded (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994. Christensen 1988, Bunting 1996, Sufling 1990). Removal of the human element may also be considered unnaturai (Pyne 1995). Alternative objectives could be based on ecosystem integrity or the preservation of scarce ecosystem values. For example, the objective wuld be to ensure dynarnic stability (Bunting 1996)' landscape diversity (Suffling 1988)' or landscape co~ectivity(Turner and Romme 1994). The chosen objective must also be compatible with other park objectives, such as the preservation of carbiou habitat. which may conflict with the natural role of fire (Parks Canada 1978, Fritz et al. 1993, Klein 1982, Schaefer and Pruitt 1991, Cummings 1995, Bergerud 1989). Once chosen, the practical attainment of a fire management objective through an appropriate rnk of fire suppression, naturd fire, or prescribed fire (Heinselman 1971) is complicated by ecological, operational and policy issues. Fire suppression rnay have creatd a condition whereby the large, intense &es needed to ensure ecosystem integrity become a threat to both the ecosystem and humans, as a result of umatural fbel conditions that support 'u~atural'fire behaviour and impacts that are difficuit to contain within Park boundaries (Williams 1995, Turner and Rornme 1994). Conversely, the use of smdl prescribed fires may represent a fbrther disruption of the ecosystem (Baker 1994). The practical attainment of a fire management objective rnay also be limited to the provisions of provincial fire management policy, which may not accommodate the management of large fires or nahiral fie regimes (Tithecott and DUM 1994). The prevailing uncertainty regarding the delineation and implementation of a fire management objective for Wabakimi demands a precautionary approach (Van Wagner and Methven 1980, Tithecott and DUM 1994). The implementation of a fire management policy in Wabakimi will require a long-tem study of the ecology and history of fire in the Park in order to delineate objectives and the means of attaining them. As described in Chapter 2, fire history analysis, by its very nature. demands a broad 'ecusystem' approach to scientific inquiry and typically involves the use of multiple methodologies and the piecing together of scattered and anecdotal evidence in an effort to produce a lucid historical account of £ire. This is particularly critical given the general lack of knowledge and research specific to the Wabakimi ecosystem. However. the quantification of fire cycles represents the first step in the management process. This analysis can be viewed as the foundation, upon which many years of future research will build, in order to develop Wabakimi's fire management policy. Chapter 5 Discussion and Recommendations 5.1 Discussion It is evident that fire has a natural and critically important role to play in Wabakimi Provincial Park. The large, high intensity fires of the boreal forest contribute to ecosystem functioning (Heinselman 1971. Bonan and Shugart 1989, Kronberg and Fyfe 1992. Scooter 1972, Minshall et al. 1989, Knight a ai. 1985) and profoundly influence species composition, successional patterns. and the landscape mosaic (Johnson 1992. Roninson 1974, Frelich and Reich 1995, Bergeron 199 1). The role of fire in Wabakimi has existed in the presence of humans for approximately 8,000 years. There is evidence of Fint Nations' manipulation of fire (Johnson 1992), and the Fur Trade. followed by settlement, may have influenced the role of fire indirectly, by altering Fust Nations' activities. and directly, by introducing new sources of ignition. However there is evidence that Europeans did not have a signifiant impact on either First Nations' activities or fire ignition pior to the Suppression Era (Johnson 1992, 1990). The advent of fire suppression in the early 1900s marked a potential increase in human manipulation of fire. While a consistent policy of fire exclusion characterhed the 19 17 to 1982 period, the actual impact of fie suppression changed with technological innovation. in Ontario, a key technologid innovation occurred in the 1920s with the simultaneous introduction of aircraft and the power pump. The effêctiveness of fire suppression continued to increase throughout the Suppression Era with the introduction of water bombing; developments in organizational stnicture; the introduction of formal training and strategic planning; the evolution of cornputerized decision making tools; and the development of computerked predidion and detection technology. While the overall suppression force of the provincial fire management organization can be assessed fiom historical records, the actual application of that force to individual areas of the province may have varied, despite consistent fire exclusion policies. It seems possible that the uninhabited Wabakirni wilderness was not considerd a priority for fire suppression until the 1950s when timber cutting rights granted. Nevertheless potential impacts of fire suppression on the ecological role of £ire in Wabakirni are numerous. Fuel accumulation resulting in umaturally catastrophic fires is the most cornmonly cited potential impact (Euler 1985, Goodman 1985. hoand Brown 1989. Wein and Moore 1977, Heinseiman 1971, Clark 1988, Baker 1994, Neuenschwander 1996). Risks to species persistence (Bergeron 199 1) and landscape diversity (Suffling 1990) have also been identified. While some argue that fire suppression has not existed long enough to alter fuel levels (Romrne and Despain 1989). the history of strict fire exclusion in Wabakimi has potentially changed the process of fire in the area. Designation of the area as a Park, and attendant reintroduction of fire, represents yet another human iduence, the impacts of which will be manifest in the coming years. Potentid negative impacts of reintroducing fire include succession to unnaturd species (Bergeron 1991, Frelich and Reich 1995). or the creation of rock barrens (Gordon 1979. Parks Canada 1978). Mitigation of potentid negative impacts requires an understanding of the charactersitics of the ecosystem and £ire processes, as well as the quantification of historical human influence on these characteristics and processes, such that their removal can be rendered benign. Historical fire records provide insight into the impacts of humans in this century. Ana bumed statistics for Wabakirni and Ontario indicate reductions between 1920 and 1970 followed by increases in recent decades. A suggested explanation is that of fuel accumulations due to £ire suppression. Area bumed statistics also revd the severity of the 1990s in Wabakirni relative to the Province as a whole. suggesting revised fire management policy aimed at reintroducing fire. However, this explanation is refuted by an analysis of response times over the 1976-96 period which indicate that Wabakimi has been subjected to a constant Ievel of suppression force in the past two decades, and that this level has been consistently lower than that experienced by surrounding areas. This may indicate that recent increases in area bumed reflect natural processes. Fire reports also indicate that WabakVni has been relatively undisturbed with regard to ignition sources. While histoncal reports are only available for the past eighty years, stand age-class distributions can be used to assess the infiuence of humans over centuries. The negative exponential, a stochastic mode1 of fire history, uses the stand age-class distribution of an area to detennine temporal changes in the fire cycle, and thus the impacts of human activities on the fire regime. Introduced by Heinselman (1973), expanded by Van Wagner (1978) and Johnson (1979), and fiirther developed and reviewed by Johnson and Van Wagner (1985) and Johnson and Gutsell (1994). the mode1 has been used to asses the impacts of humans and climate on fire cycles (Masters 1990, Johnson et al. 1990, McCune 1983, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 199 1, Power 1996). Problems with the model include: the assumption of age-independent flammability (Van Wagner 1978, Fryer and Johnson 1988, Johnson et al. 1990, Johnson and Larsen 199 1, Bergeron 1997, Yarie 198 1, Romme and Despain 1989); the assumption of spatially and tempordly stable fire cycles (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994, Christensen 1988. Bunting 1996. Suffling 1990, Clark 1989, Boychuck et al. 1997); and censoring due to the mortaiity of trees (Fimey 1995, Fox 1989). Reed et al. (1998) have proposed a new methodology based on an overdispersed suMval model with associated quasi-likelihood function, as weU as an unbiased method of selecting change points, because traditional methods: do not consider hazard cumulatively; involve seleaion bias; and fail to provide for confidence intervais and tests of signifiant difference. The analysis as per Reed et al. (1998) revealed that fire cycles in Wabakimi are significantly different before (36.99 years) and after (359.66 years) 1928, which marked the beginning of modem approaches to fire suppression. The relevance of these historical fire cycles to the fùture of Wabakimi must be viewed in iight of the daunting theoretical and practical issues that characterize fire menagement in protected areas. There are numerous hurdles to implementing a fire management plan for Wabakirni. Theoretically, perrnitting fïre to burn freely in certain designated areas rnay have undesired effects due to the nature of fire processes; the nature of parks as scarce resources; and the influence of humans. The decision to aiiow even one fire to bum in Wabakirni has the potential for drastic and long-tem alteration of the scarce ecological values and services provided by the Park. From an administration perspective, Ontario lacks a comprehensive modem policy on fire management in parks and the present poticy does not apply to the majority of Wabakimi, which is classed as a Natural Environment Park (OMNR 1W8b, 1996). In attempting to manage for the 'natural' role of fke (OMNR 1996). the Park objective requires an intrinsic cornprehension of what is '~tural'. This couid be translated into a 'natural' fire cycle, which has been estirnated to be 37 years, or 'natural' landscape mosaic. However, maintenance of 'naturd' fire cycles or mosaics assumes steady-state conditions in ecosystems, an assumption that has been widely challenged (Baker 1989, Clark 1988, Salwasser 1994, Christensen 1988, Bunting 1996, Suflhg 1990). Examination of hazard rates in Wabakimi appear to support the argument that hazard rates are not constant, but rather foiiow trends dictated by large-sale processes such as weather, or fLel dynamics. Alternative objectives include management for ecosystem heaith or the preservation of scarce ecosystem values. Examples include preservation of dynamic stability (Bunting 1996), landscape diversity (Suffling 1988), or landsfape co~ectivity(Turner and Romme 1994). Other park objectives must also be considered, such as the preservation of caribou habitat, which may conflict with the natural role of tire (Parks Canada 1978, Fritz et al. 1993, Klein 1982, Schaefer and Pniitt 199 1, Cummings 1995, Bergemd 1989). # Implementation of the chosen objective for Wabakimi is complicated by ecological, operational, and policy issues. Fire suppression may have created a condition supportive of 'u~atural'fire behaviour and impacts, that are difficult to contain within Park boundaries (Williams 1995, Turner and Romme 1994). Conversely, small preswibed fires may be equally disruptive (Baker 1994). Further, provincial fire management policy does not accommodate the management of large fires or natural fire regimes (Tithecott and DUM 1994). The prevailing uncertainty regarding the detineation and implementation of a fire management objective for Wabakimi demands a precautionary approach (Van Wagner and Methvan 1980, Tithecott and DUM 1994). The reintroduction of fire shouid be premised on the results of long-term studies of the ecology and process of fire in the Park, and the human influences on them, in order to delineate objectives and the means of attaining them. The quantification of historical fire cycles for Wabakimi represents the first step in this precautionary process. While the pre- 1928 fire cycle for Wabakimi reflects conditions pior to the significant manipulation of fire by humans, it does not necessarily represent the desired, or 'naturai' fire cycle, for which the present Park should be manageci. In introducing the negative exponential mode1 of fire history Van Wagner (1978) cautioned against attempts to identifl the "best" answer through an analysis of historical fire cycles, since "the rdoptimum fire cycle. is. presumably, that cycle that maintains the forea in question in the best possible ecological state" (Van Wagner 1W8:226). Examination of trends in the hazard rate suggest the need for further caution in detemuning the relevance of historical fie cycles to the future of fie management in Wabakimi. The estimated hazard rate in Wabakhi decreased at an alrnost Iinear rate between f 858 and 1948. Between 1948 and 1978, the estimated hazard rate was both Iow and constant, and may indicate the ability of fire suppression to maintain what were the already low hazard rates of the 1930s and 1940s. If this is true. increases in area bumed that have been observed in recent decades in both Ontario and Wabakimi are potential indicaton that fire suppression efforts may not be capable of maintainhg what may have been the naturally (and perhaps temporarily) low hazard rates of a specific historical period, into the new millennium. However, knowledge of historical fire cycles does provide a starting point fiom which fire management planning can begin. At the most basic level, this analysis suggests the need for a cautious approach to fire management in Wabakimi, given that the present state of the Park may be an artifact of 50 or more years of fire suppression, and consequently, fire should not be expected to behave 'naturally' in the absence of this human infiuence. This analysis aiso suggests that there is considerable natural temporal variation in hazard rates that appear to follow distinct trends, possibly driven by large-scale weather processes. Consequently, management for specific historiai fie cycles may not be justified ecologidy, economically, or socially. Until long-terrn studies on the ecology and process of fire in the Park have been cornpleted, the future of Wabakimi WUremain poised precariously between the potential for disaster and the possibility of sustained remediation. The need for prudent tempering of impending management decisions capable of drastic, long-term, and potentially irreversible consequences, can not be stressed enough. 5.2 Recommendations Recommendation 1 The estimated fire cycles in Chapter 3 should not be transiated into direct fire management objectives for Wabakirni. The quantification of the pre-1928 fue cycle, and the degree to which it has changeci should be viewed as counsel for prudence in reintroducing fire to the Park, until the results of detailed, long-term research on the ecology and process of fire can be used to qualiQ the relevance of these histoncai fire cycles to the future of Wabakimi. Recommendation 2 Pursuant to recommendation 1, a long-tem research plan should be developed for the Park, which emphasizes the importance of understandhg the innuences of largascale ecosystem processes on the ecology of Wabakirni (Le.. weather and fire). A detailed intenm fire management policy should aiso be articulated. Ideally, this policy should be nested within a modem overall provincial fire management policy for protected areas. It should dso be premised on a precautionary approach that acknowledges the uncertainty regarding the reintroduction of fire, and the potentially disastrous, long-tep and irreversible consequences of uniformed decision making. Recommendation 3 Once a fire management policy for the park has been articulateci, it should be subjected to a complete environmental assessment, requiring the examination of alternatives to the poiicy and alternative methods of implementing the policy. Parks are scarce resources and their management can not be based on vague ecological fiindamentals that once applied to vast undisturbed landscapes. 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