Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Section 11 Mountrail County Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.1 IFR for Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 11.2 Hazard Identification (Updated) 11.2.1 Overview of Mountrail County’s History of Hazards and Potential Hazards 11.2.2 Hazard Profiles 11.3 Risk Assessment (Updated) 11.3.1 Risk Assessment Methodology 11.3.2 Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 11.4 Capability Assessment (Updated) 11.5 Mitigation Strategy (Updated) 11.5.1 Mitigation Goals 11.5.2 Mitigation Actions
11.1 Interim Final Rule for Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Requirement §201.6(c)(2): The plan shall include a risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this section. This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment] must also address National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) insured structures that have been repetitively damaged floods.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A): The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of the types and
Page 11-1
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard area .
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(ii)(A) of this section and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate ..
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of] providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions.
Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(iii): For multi-jurisdictional plans, the risk assessment must assess each jurisdiction's risks where they vary from the risks facing the entire planning area.
This section addresses the specific requirements of the Interim Final Rule (IFR) with regard to hazards and risks to Mountrail County.
For the purposes of this plan, the term “Mountrail County” is understood to include all unincorporated areas within Mountrail County.
11.2 Hazard Identification (Updated)
In accordance with IFR requirements, and as part of its efforts to support and encourage hazard mitigation initiatives, the Steering Committee prepared this general assessment of the hazards that have the potential to impact Mountrail County. This section provides an overview of past hazard events in the county and descriptions of potential hazards to the county.
11.2.1 Overview of Mountrail County’s History of Hazards and Potential Hazards Numerous federal agencies maintain a variety of records regarding losses associated with natural hazards. Unfortunately, no single source is considered to offer a definitive accounting of all losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maintains records on federal expenditures associated with declared major disasters. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) collect data on losses during the course of some of their ongoing projects and studies. Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database collects and maintains data about natural hazards in summary format. The data includes occurrences, dates, injuries, deaths, and costs. Many of these databases and other data collection services, including the NCDC, have inherent data limitations when searching for information at a scale as small as a single municipality. The best available data and records were used throughout this section.
Page 11-2
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
According to the NCDC database, at least 406 weather-related hazard events have occurred in Mountrail County since 1950, including the following number and types of hazard events: 1
. Extreme Cold – at least 20 events; . Tornado/funnel cloud – at least 25 events; . Thunderstorm wind – at least 45 events; and . Blizzard/winter storm – at least 61 events.
In the absence of definitive data on some of the hazards that may occur in the county, illustrative examples are useful. Table 11.2.1-1 (below) provides information on the Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations that have included Mountrail County since 1957. While the county may not have been the epicenter of the event, it experienced enough impact to be within the disaster declaration.
Table11.2.1-12 Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations – Mountrail County Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations – 1957-2014
Date and Disaster or EM Number Nature of Event April 18, 1969 Flooding DR-256 June 10, 1972 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-335 May 24, 1975 Flooding from Rains, Snowmelt DR-469 April 16, 1976 Flooding DR-501 July 21, 1976 Drought EM-3016 April 26, 1979 Storms, Snowmelt, Flooding DR-581 January 12, 1997 Severe Winter Storms/Blizzards DR-1157 April 07, 1997 Severe Storms/Flooding DR-1174 June 08, 1999 Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Snow and Ice, Flooding, Ground DR-1279 Saturation, Landslides, and Mudslides June 27, 2000 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-1334 May 28, 2001 Floods DR-1376 April 02, 2004 Snow EM-3196
Page 11-3
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations – 1957-2014
Date and Disaster or EM Number Nature of Event May 05, 2004 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-1515 July 22, 2005 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-1597 September 13, 2005 North Dakota Hurricane Katrina Evacuation EM-3247 March 24, 2009 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-1829 February 26, 2010 Severe Winter Storms/Blizzard DR-1879 May 10, 2011 Flooding DR-1981 May 20, 2011 Severe Winter Storm DR-1986 July 12, 2013 Severe Storms, Flooding DR-4128
Potential Hazards to Mountrail County As part of the initial identification process, the Steering Committee considered potential hazards to identify those with the most chance to significantly affect the planning area. The hazards include those that have occurred in the past and may occur in the future. A variety of sources were used to develop the list of hazards considered by the Steering Committee. These included national, regional, and local sources such as emergency operations plans, the State of North Dakota Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, the 2006 Mountrail County, North Dakota Multi-Hazard Hazard Mitigation Plan, FEMA’s How-To Series, websites, published documents, databases, and maps, as well as discussion among the Steering Committee members.
In the initial phase of the planning process, the Steering Committee considered 24 natural, manmade, and technological hazards and the risks they create for the county and its material assets, operations, and staff. The hazards initially considered, and the determination as to the treatment of those hazards, are shown in Table 11.2.1-2 (following).
Page 11-4
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.1-2 Preliminary Hazard Identification and Determinations – Mountrail County
Hazard (2006)
Included in SHMP (2014) Included in Mountrail County HMP Included in Mountrail County HMP Update (2014) Mountrail County for Exclusion Reason and other notes Natural Hazards Avalanche Not a hazard in the area Communicable Disease (Including NA human animal and plant diseases) Potential agricultural Drought impacts, despite wet cycle Extreme Cold Event NA Included under severe Extreme Heat summer storms Extreme Wind Events (including NA tornadoes)
Minimal hazard, but some Flood potential exists
Geologic Hazards (including landslide, earthquake, and other Not a hazard in the area geologic/mining hazards) Severe Winter Storm NA Summer Storm (including hail and NA lightning) Low probability with Volcano sufficient advance warning Combine structural and Wildland/Rural Fire wildfire into a single profile Intentional Threats Excluded due to duplication of efforts with other plans; decision to Civil Disorder/Terrorism exclude based on focus on predominantly natural hazards Excluded due to duplication of efforts with other plans; decision to Homeland Security Incident exclude based on focus on predominantly natural hazards Mass Casualty Determined to be a
Page 11-5
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Hazard (2006)
Included in SHMP (2014) Included in Mountrail County HMP Included in Mountrail County HMP Update (2014) Mountrail County for Exclusion Reason and other notes planning consideration rather than a hazard Excluded due to duplication of efforts with other plans; decision to National Security Emergency exclude based on focus on predominantly natural hazards Determined to be a Population Influx (including lack of planning consideration housing infrastructure) rather than a hazard Technological/Manmade Threats Not a hazard for this Dam Failure community. Hazardous Material Incident (Fixed Significant concern, Site and Transportation) county-wide. Considered as part of dam failure for those Levee Failure communities with vulnerability. Determined to be a Shortage of Critical Materials planning consideration rather than a hazard Included under Structural Fire Wildland/Rural Fire Determined to be a Transportation Accident (including planning consideration vehicular, railway, and aircraft) rather than a hazard
Flooding was added by the Committee after consideration of the recent hazard history for the County.
The following pages profile the nine hazards identified above that can impact Mountrail County, and include a description of the hazard, the location of the hazard, the extent and severity of the hazard, the potential impact to life and property that the hazard may have, past occurrences of the hazard, and the probability of future occurrences of the hazard.
Future Occurrence Probability Methodology In order to determine the probability of future occurrences of each hazard profiled, the following scale was developed:
Page 11-6
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
High – any hazard with the probability of occurring at least once per year Moderate – any hazard with the probability of occurring at least once every five years Low – any hazard with the probability of occurring less than every five years
The methodology is based on frequency of impact within a 5 year planning period, hence the 5 year break point between moderate and low.
11.2.2 Hazard Profiles Note on the maps: the maps in this section provide estimates of municipal and county boundaries based on data available as of April and May 2014. In some cases, the boundaries depicted may not reflect recent annexations or other changes to corporate limits. However, these images reflect the best available data at the time of plan development. Future updates to this plan will reflect changes to municipal and county boundaries.
11.2.2.1 Communicable Disease
Description of the Hazard3 Communicable diseases or transmissible diseases are also called infectious pathologies due to their potential of transmission from one person or species to another by a replicating agent (as opposed to a toxin). Infectious diseases are clinically evident illness resulting from the presence of pathogenic microbial agents, including pathogenic viruses, pathogenic bacteria, fungi, protozoa, multi-cellular parasites, and aberrant proteins known as prions. Infectious diseases can be transmitted through one or more pathways including physical contact with infected individuals. Additionally, they may also be transmitted through liquids, food, body fluids, contaminated objects, airborne inhalation, or through vector-borne spread.
Transmissible diseases which occur through contact with an ill person or their secretions, or objects touched by them, are especially infective, and are sometimes referred to as contagious diseases. Infectious (communicable) diseases which usually require a more specialized route of infection, such as vector transmission, or blood or needle transmission, are usually not regarded as contagious.
The term infectious describes the ability of an organism to enter, survive and multiply in the host, while the infectiousness of a disease indicates the comparative ease with which the disease is transmitted to other hosts. An infection however, is not synonymous with an infectious disease, as an infection may not cause important clinical symptoms or impair host function.
Plague, pertussis, tuberculosis, rabies, hepatitis B, influenza, HIV, and measles, are examples of communicable or infectious diseases.
Page 11-7
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Location of the Hazard People, rather than physical assets are impacted by this hazard. Therefore, all populated areas of the county are at risk from the communicable disease hazard.
Extent and Severity of the Hazard Various diseases are categorized by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in levels of biohazard. In this scale, Level 1 equates to a minimal risk, and Level 4 describes extreme risk. Table 11.2.2.1-1 (below) describes these levels, and provides examples of communicable diseases that would typically fall in to these classifications, and the typical protections that would be necessary to prevent transmission of the disease.
Table 11.2.2.1-1 Biohazard Classification Levels4 Level Examples Typical Protection to Prevent Transmission
Precautions are minimal, most likely involving gloves and some sort of facial protection. Usually, contaminated materials are left in open (but separately indicated) E. Coli Biohazard Level I waste receptacles. Decontamination procedures for this Canine Hepatitis (BSL-I) level are similar in most respects to modern precautions Chicken Pox against everyday viruses (i.e.: washing one's hands with anti-bacterial soap, washing all exposed surfaces of the lab with disinfectants, etc.). Hepatitis A, B, C Lyme disease Salmonella These bacteria and viruses cause mild disease in humans, Biohazard Level II Mumps or are difficult to contract via aerosol. Routine diagnostic (BSL-2) Measles work with clinical specimens can be done safely at BSL-2, Scrapie using BSL- 2 practices and procedures. Dengue Fever HIV Anthrax These bacteria and viruses cause severe to fatal disease West Nile Virus in human, but vaccines or other treatments do exist to SARS Virus combat them. Laboratory personnel have specific Biohazard Level III Smallpox training in handling pathogenic and potentially lethal (BSL-3) Tuberculosis agents, and are supervised by competent scientists who Typhus are experienced in working with these agents. This is Yellow Fever considered a neutral or warm zone. Malaria
Page 11-8
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Level Examples Typical Protection to Prevent Transmission
These viruses and bacteria cause severe to fatal disease in humans, for which vaccines or other treatments are H5N1 (Bird Flu) not available. When dealing with biological hazards at Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever this level the use of a Hazmat suit and a self-contained Marburg Virus oxygen supply is mandatory. The entrance and exit of a Ebola Virus BSL-4 lab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, Biohazard Level IV Hantaviruses an ultraviolet light room, autonomous detection system, (BSL-4) Lassa Fever and other safety precautions designed to destroy all Crimean-Congo traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed Hemorrhagic Fever and are electronically secured to prevent both doors Other Hemorrhagic opening at the same time. All air and water service going Diseases to and coming from a BSL- 4 lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release.
Potential Impact of the Hazard Communicable disease outbreaks and pandemics will have the most immediate impact on life and health safety. The extent of the impact will be contingent on the type of infection or contagion, the severity of the outbreak, and the speed at which it is transmitted. Property and infrastructure could be affected if large portions of the population were affected and unable to perform maintenance and operations tasks. This would be particularly disruptive if those impacted were first responders or other essential personnel.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Influenza, also known as the flu, is a respiratory illness cause by influenza viruses, and is contagious. It causes mild to severe illness, and can be fatal in humans. Symptoms of flu include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, fatigue, and chills.5
Influenza is an illness that is specifically tracked by the State Department of Health, and detailed records are maintained for this illness. The table following (Table 11.2.2.1-2) provides information regarding influenza outbreaks in Mountrail County and the State of North Dakota since the 2006-2007 reporting season.
Table 11.2.2.1-26 Influenza Occurrences Percentage of ND Cases (Mountrail Years Cases (Statewide) Cases in Mountrail County) County 2006-2007 2,369 20 1% 2007-2008 3,817 26 1%
2008-2009 1,755 7 1% 2009-2010 3,259 46 1%
Page 11-9
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Percentage of ND Cases (Mountrail Years Cases (Statewide) Cases in Mountrail County) County 2010-2011 2,089 21 1%
2011-2012 1,487 40 2% 2012-2013 4,833 51 1%
Another communicable disease that is tracked by the State Health Department is pertussis, also known as whooping cough. Pertussis or whooping cough is a very contagious bacterial infection caused by the Bordetella bacteria. It is only found in humans and is spread from person to person by coughing or sneezing while in close contact with others. Pertussis starts with cold like symptoms and can become a series of coughing fits for several weeks.7
Table 11.2.2.1-3 (below) provides information regarding pertussis outbreaks in Mountrail County and the State of North Dakota since the 2006 reporting season.
Table 11.2.2.1-3 Pertussis Occurrences Percentage of ND Cases (Mountrail Years Cases (Statewide) Cases in Mountrail County) County 20068 41 2 7% 20079 12 0 NA 200810 25 0 NA 200911 30 0 NA 201012 58 0 NA 201113 70 0 NA 201214 214 1 1% 201315 87 1 1%
Rabies is also a concern for the State Health Department, which specifically tracks reports of the illness by species infected. Rabies is a preventable viral disease in mammals. It is most often transmitted through the bite of a rabid animal. Rabies affects the central nervous system, ultimately causing disease in the brain and death. Early symptoms include irritability, headache, fever, and itching or pain at the site of infection. Later symptoms include spasms of the throat muscles, convulsions, delirium, and eventual death.16
Table 11.2.2.1-4 (below) provides occurrence information for rabies outbreaks in Mountrail County and the State of North Dakota since the 2006-2007 reporting season.
Page 11-10
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.1-4 Rabies Occurrences Cases Percentage of ND Species Years Cases (Statewide) (Mountrail Cases in Mountrail Impacted County) County 1 Cat 200617 32 3 9% 2 Skunks 200718 30 1 3% 1 Cow
200819 34 1 2% 1 Cat
200920 16 0 NA NA
201021 22 0 NA NA
201122 23 0 NA NA
201223 75 1 1% 1 Cow
201324 40 0 NA NA
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on the available data, there have been several occurrences of the communicable disease hazard within Mountrail County – at least one occurrence of at least one communicable disease in each of the previous none years. Therefore, using the scale provided earlier in this section, the probability of a future single occurrence is high. Whether this single occurrence would be sufficient to create a hazardous situation for the county would depend entirely on the specific details of the specific situation.
11.2.2.2 Drought
Description of the Hazard25 Drought is a normal part of virtually all climatic regions, including areas with high and low average rainfall. Drought is normally defined as a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time. Drought is one of the most complex of all natural hazards, as it is difficult to determine a precise beginning or end. In addition, drought can lead to or be exacerbated by other hazards, such as extreme heat or wildfires.
Droughts are a slow-onset hazard. Over time, however, they can result in damage to agriculture, municipal water supplied, recreation, and wildlife. Prolonged droughts can produce significant economic impacts, both directly and indirectly.
Location of the Hazard Drought is a hazard that is not restricted to particular areas or types of environments. All areas within Mountrail County are subject to the drought hazard.
Page 11-11
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Extent and Severity of the Hazard Droughts are classified as meteorological, hydrologic, agricultural, and socioeconomic. The following bullets illustrate how the classifications of drought are defined:
Meteorological drought is defined by a period of substantially diminished precipitation duration and/or intensity. The commonly used definition of meteorological drought is an interval of time, generally on the order of months or years, during which the actual moisture supply at a given place consistently falls below the climatically appropriate moisture supply. Agricultural drought occurs when there is inadequate soil moisture to meet the needs of a particular crop at a particular time. Agricultural drought usually occurs after or during meteorological drought, but before hydrological drought and can affect livestock and other dry-land agricultural operations. Hydrological drought refers to deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies. It is measured as stream flow, snow pack, and as lake, reservoir, and groundwater levels. There is usually a delay between lack of rain or snow and less measurable water in streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Therefore, hydrological measurements tend to lag behind other drought indicators. Socio-economic drought occurs when physical water shortages start to affect the health, well-being, and quality of life of the people, or when the drought starts to affect the supply and demand of an economic product.26
Droughts are measured using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), also known as the Palmer Index. The Palmer Index was developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s and uses temperature and rainfall information in a formula to determine dryness. It has become the semi-official drought index.
The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months— and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, -2 is moderate drought, -3 is severe drought, and -4 is extreme drought. The Palmer Index is also useful for reflecting excess rain using a corresponding level reflected by plus figures; i.e., 0 is normal, +2 is moderate rainfall, etc.
The advantage of the Palmer Index is that it is standardized to local climate, so it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought or rainfall conditions. The negative is that it is not as good for short term forecasts, and is not particularly useful in calculating supplies of water locked up in snow, so it works best east of the Continental Divide. Despite these shortcomings, it remains a useful tool for easily explaining the severity of a drought.27
Table 11.2.2.2-1 (following) provides the PDSI classifications.
Page 11-12
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.2-1 Palmer Drought Severity Index28 Classification Description Range of Possible Impacts
4.00 or more Extremely wet
3.00 to 3.99 Very wet
2.00 to 2.99 Moderately wet
1.00 to 1.99 Slightly wet
0.50 to 0.99 Incipient wet spell
0.49 to -0.49 Near normal
-0.50 to -0.99 Incipient dry spell Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire -1.00 to -1.99 Mild drought risk above average Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some -2.00 to -2.99 Moderate drought water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages -3.00 to -3.99 Severe drought common; water restrictions imposed Major crop/pasture losses; -4.00 to -4.99 Extreme drought extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional -5.0 or less Exceptional drought fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies
Drought is monitored nation-wide by the US Drought Monitor, a service of the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC). Indicators are used to describe broad scale drought conditions across the country. Indicators correspond to the intensity of the drought. As of late August 2014, no portion of North Dakota, including Mountrail County, was classified as being under drought conditions.29
Page 11-13
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Potential Impact of the Hazard Droughts can affect a large geographic area, and can range in size from a few counties to a few states. Their potential to impact wildlife and agricultural concerns can be enormous. Droughts can kill crops, edible plants and wildlife habitat, and destroy grazing lands and trees. Dead or dying vegetation, a normal result of drought, can then serve as a prime ignition source for wildfires or grass fires.
The impacts of drought directly impact both economic and social stability in the affected area. Impacts do not generally include direct structural damages, but rather focus on the impacts to living things.
Perhaps the best known example of the impacts on life and property from drought is the Dust Bowl. The phenomenon was caused by severe drought coupled with decades of poor farming and land management practices. Deep plowing of the virgin topsoil of the Great Plains killed the natural grasses that normally kept the soil in place and trapped moisture even during periods of drought and high winds. This led to widespread crop failure throughout the Great Plains, including throughout North Dakota.
During the Dust Bowl period, impressive drought-related research was carried out by the USDA, State Agricultural Experiment Station Systems, and agricultural colleges and universities. Notable accomplishments were technologies for soil erosion control, soil moisture conservation, higher yielding grain varieties, improved fertilizers, and better farm management.30
North Dakotans – including those in Mountrail County – are familiar with the impacts of drought. Given the areas dependence on agriculture, a significant drought in the modern era could have equally devastating consequences. Widespread crop failure, livestock death, inadequate drinking water, illness or diseases from inadequate sanitation – all of these are potential impacts from a widespread or prolonged drought.
A number of secondary hazards are often associated with drought. Rural grassland fires increase because of dry vegetation. Reduction in vegetation cover will expose the soil to wind, and dust storms and soil erosion will occur. Because of reduction in flow, the chemical quality of river and lake water will change, and the sediment transport regimes of streams will be altered.
Deterioration in water quality, in turn, results in injury and death to plants and animals. Stagnant pools along river courses will provide favorable habitats for insects, particularly mosquitoes and grasshoppers. Finally, with the return of the rains, the dry and unstable topsoil is vulnerable to gullying and flooding.
Page 11-14
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Information obtained from the State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) indicates that Mountrail County has a documented history of drought. The following are some notable occurrences of drought in the vicinity of the planning area. This list, taken from the SHMP is not exhaustive, and includes only those occurrences that were notable.31
1930s: The decade began with dry years in 1930 and 1931. By 1934, extremely dry conditions were recorded over 80% of the US, including most of North Dakota. By the end of the decade, the Great Plains were in extreme drought conditions. As rain continued to elude the area, crops and livestock failed. Exposed topsoil blew away in heat-driven winds, creating dust storms. According to the State Historical Society, thousands of North Dakotans lost their farms, and moved either to cities or towns, while others left the state altogether. One historian cited by the Society estimates that 70% of the state’s population required one form of public assistance or another, but also notes that most North Dakotans held on, husbanding their resources wherever they could. 1950s: This drought, lasting most of the decade, was one of the most severe to impact the Great Plains. A pattern of low precipitation began in 1952 and continued until 1954. According to the USGS, this drought was intensified by the diversion of moisture-laden air masses away from drought-stricken areas by the formation of stronger-than-normal high pressure cells. Ground water throughout the Great Plains declined; in some areas, this decline was measured in tens of feet. Compared to other Great Plains states, North Dakota fared reasonably well during this drought, though significant hardships did occur. The USGS estimated that in 1955, approximately 614,000 acres throughout the State were damaged by wind, resulting in significant erosion. During this period, precipitation ranged from 50% to 75% of normal throughout North Dakota. 1988-1992: According to a report published by the ND State Water Commission, the drought of 1988-1992 was the second most severe drought to occur in North Dakota since 1930. These impacts included Rice Lake, which was strongly impacted by the drought. As depicted in Figure 11.2.2.2-2 (following), the entire state – including Mountrail County – was categorized as being in extreme drought during this time.
Page 11-15
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.2-132 Palmer Hydrological Drought Index – July 1988
2006: The meteorological summer of June, July, and August 2006 turned out to be the 3rd warmest and 14th driest in state history. Then-Governor John Hoeven issued a statewide agricultural drought emergency declaration in response to drought conditions that continued to deteriorate in southwest and south central portions of North Dakota. Drought declarations were issued in Grant, Hettinger, McIntosh, Sioux, and Emmons County. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Mountrail County was in the moderate to severe intensity for the 2006 drought. No deaths or injuries were reported.
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on the available data, drought occurs in the planning area less than once per year. Using the scale provided earlier in this section, this equates to a moderate probability of a future occurrence, as the hazard occurs at least once every 5 years.
Page 11-16
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.2.2.3 Extreme Cold
Description of the Hazard What is considered an excessively cold temperature varies according to the normal climate for that region. Excessive or extreme cold can accompany severe winter weather, or it can occur without severe weather.33
The greatest danger from extreme cold is to people, as prolonged exposure can cause frostbite or hypothermia, and can become life-threatening. Body temperatures that are too low affect the brain, making it difficult for the victim to think clearly or move well. This makes hypothermia particularly dangerous for those suffering from it, as they may not understand what is happening to them or what to do about it.34
Location of the Hazard Extreme cold events are a non-spatial hazard, and can – and do - occur anywhere in Mountrail County.
Extent and Severity of the Hazard Extreme cold has a wide range of extent and severity markers and characteristics. Winter temperatures in Mountrail County typically range from the 20s and 30s (high) to single digits to 20s (lows.).35
Figure 11.2.2.3-1 (following) depicts the National Weather Service’s methodology for determining wind chill, using wind speed and actual temperature. While windchill is not necessarily related to extreme cold as a single cause, the advisory system that the NWS currently uses relies on windchill to relay warning and advisory information to the public. Extreme cold severity is a function of wind chill and other factors, such as precipitation amount (rain, sleet, ice, and/or snow).
Page 11-17
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.3-136 Methodology for Determining Windchill
In 2011, the National Weather Service introduced an experimental program that issues warnings for extreme cold events, independent of other severe weather warnings. The test areas included North and South Dakota and Minnesota.37 In 2012, after a single season of use, the program was abandoned, based on reports of confusion among test audiences.38
Potential Impact of the Hazard As a result of the oil boom in the northwest part of the State (which includes Mountrail County), many newcomers moved into the area in search of economic opportunities. Many of these newcomers may not be accustomed to the extreme cold that occurs in Mountrail County, and may not equipped with the proper cold weather clothing to deal with the North Dakota winters. In addition, due to the lack of available and affordable housing in the area, many of the newcomers are living in recreational vehicles or man camps that may not have adequate heating, and may not have proper preventative measures on utility connections.
Structure fires and carbon monoxide poisoning are also possible impacts of extreme cold, as people rely on auxiliary heating devices, such as candles, portable heaters, and fuel burning lanterns.
Page 11-18
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Rural residents can be hit particularly hard by extreme cold weather, if they do not have adequate stockpiles of food, water, and heating fuel. The livestock industry can be severely impacted by extreme cold weather as well. The inability to get feed and water to livestock can quickly escalate to a critical situation, and can lead to dehydration, a major cause of livestock causalities.
In addition to the threat posed to humans, extreme cold weather pose a significant threat to utility production, which in turn threatens facilities and operations that rely on utilities, specifically climate stabilization. As temperatures drop and stay low, increased demand for heating places a strain on the electrical grid, which can lead to temporary outages.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) records extreme cold hazards at the county level. Information obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) indicates that there have been at least 27occurrences of the extreme cold hazard since 1996 (when records for this hazard begin).39
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on the data available, extreme cold events occur in or otherwise impact Mountrail County at least annually. Therefore, using the scale previously provided, the probability of a future occurrence of the extreme cold hazard is high.
11.2.2.2.4 Extreme Wind Events (including tornadoes)
Description of the Hazard Wind is the horizontal movement of air past any given point. Wind begins with differences in air pressures; pressure that is higher at one point than another sets up a force, pushing the high towards the low pressure.40
An example of extreme wind events are tornadoes. Tornadoes are the most destructive of all atmospheric phenomena, they are violently rotating columns of air. These columns extend between and in contact with a cloud and the Earth’s surface. The most violent tornadoes have rotational wind speeds of 250 MPH; in extreme cases, rotational wind speeds may approach 300 MPH. Tornadoes are often produced by severe thunderstorms.41
Another type of extreme wind is known as a straight line wind, which is defined as any wind that is not associated with rotation (to differentiate from tornadoes).42
Location of the Hazard Extreme wind events are a non-spatial hazard, and can occur anywhere in Mountrail County.
Page 11-19
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Extent and Severity of the Hazard The National Weather Service issues wind advisories when sustained winds reach 25-39MPH at a given point, or when gusts reach 57MPH at that point. Wind gusts are defined as “rapid fluctuations in the wind speed with a variation of 10 knots or more between peaks and lulls.”43
Tornadoes have their own severity scale. They are measured and described according to the Fujita Scale. The Fujita Scale is largely a residential structure damage scale, which tends to have much more standardized construction than commercial structures. The Fujita Scale is intended to describe the expected damage to well-built residential structures. This makes its use often misleading, as poorly built structures can suffer significant structural damage under lesser winds than the Scale would suggest.44
In February 2007, use of the Fujita Scale was discontinued. In its place, the Enhanced Fujita Scale is used. The Enhanced Fujita Scale retains the same basic design as its predecessor, but reflects a more refined assessment of tornado damage surveys, standardization and damage consideration to a wider range of structure types. The new scale takes into account how most structures are designed, and is thought to be a much more accurate representation of the surface wind speeds in the most violent tornadoes. It is important to note the date a tornado occurred, as tornadoes which occurred prior to February 2007 are classified by the old scale and will not be converted to the Enhanced Fujita Scale.45
Table 11.2.2.4-1 (below) illustrates the Fujita Scale in use prior to February 2007.
Table 11.2.2.4-146 Fujita Tornado Scale (Pre-February 2007) F-Scale Intensity Wind Type of Damage Number Phrase Speed Some damage to chimneys; breaks 40-72 branches off trees; pushes over F0 Gale tornado mph shallow-rooted trees; damages sign boards. The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off Moderate 73-112 roofs; mobile homes pushed off F1 tornado mph foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed. Considerable damage. Roofs torn off 113- frame houses; mobile homes Significant F2 157 demolished; boxcars pushed over; tornado mph large trees snapped or uprooted; light object missiles generated. 158- Roof and some walls torn off well- F3 Severe tornado 206 constructed houses; trains overturned; mph most trees in forest uprooted
Page 11-20
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
F-Scale Intensity Wind Type of Damage Number Phrase Speed Well-constructed houses leveled; 207- Devastating structures with weak foundations F4 260 tornado blown off some distance; cars thrown mph and large missiles generated. Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable 261- distances to disintegrate; automobile Incredible F5 318 sized missiles fly through the air in tornado mph excess of 100 meters; trees debarked; steel reinforced concrete structures badly damaged. These winds are very unlikely. The small area of damage they might produce would probably not be recognizable along with the mess produced by F4 and F5 wind that would surround the F6 winds. Missiles, 319- Inconceivable such as cars and refrigerators would F6 379 tornado do serious secondary damage that mph could not be directly identified as F6 damage. If this level is ever achieved, evidence for it might only be found in some manner of ground swirl pattern, for it may never be identifiable through engineering studies
Table 11.2.2.4-2 (below) illustrates the Enhanced Fujita Scale, currently in use.
Table 11.2.2.4-247 Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale (Post-February 2007) Enhanced Wind Fujita Speed Potential Damage Category (mph) Light damage. Peels surface off some roofs; some damage EF0 65-85 to gutters or siding; branches broken off trees; shallow- rooted trees pushed over. Moderate damage. Roofs severely stripped; mobile EF1 86-110 homes overturned or badly damaged; loss of exterior doors; windows and other glass broken. Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-constructed houses; foundations of frame homes shifted; mobile EF2 111-135 homes completely destroyed; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated; cars lifted off ground.
Page 11-21
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Enhanced Wind Fujita Speed Potential Damage Category (mph) Severe damage. Entire stories of well-constructed houses destroyed; severe damage to large buildings such as EF3 136-16-feb5 shopping malls; trains overturned; trees debarked; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance. Devastating damage. Well-constructed houses and whole EF4 166-200 frame houses completely leveled; cars thrown and small missiles generated. Incredible damage. Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; automobile-sized missiles fly EF5 >200 through the air in excess of 100 m (107 yd); high-rise buildings have significant structural deformation; incredible phenomena will occur.
All assets and people within Mountrail County are at risk from the effects of extreme wind events and can expect to experience the complete range of the component hazards.
Potential Impact of the Hazard Extreme wind events have the potential to impact property, people, and operations throughout the city by disrupting the power supply (through downed power lines), transportation (by blocking roads with downed trees or other debris), and the habitability of buildings (by damaging roofs, windows, or other weak points in the envelope).
People caught in the open during an extreme wind events are exposed to high winds and debris, and could be injured or killed.
Extreme wind events can result in power failure which would impact the county’s operation and interrupting other services in the short-term. In terms of fallen tree limbs and other potential transportation hazards, extreme wind events may also cause disruption to community activities due to a lack of access.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Information obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) indicates that there have been at least 406 occurrences of wind events (including tornadoes and funnel clouds) hazard since 1950. While it is not possible, based on the data recorded, to know for certain that each of these events qualified as an extreme wind event, there are sufficient numbers of occurrences to assume that at least a portion of these recorded occurrences did or would have qualified as extreme.48
The most recent tornado to occur in North Dakota was on May 27, 2014. Even though the tornado did not occur in Mountrail County, its impacts highlight potential damages from
Page 11-22
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy tornadoes. The National Weather Service estimated winds reached 120 mph at the damage site, about six miles south of Watford City. Nine people were injured and a total of 15 recreational vehicles were damaged or destroyed. A total of eight people were in shelters the next day and several other sought refuge at local motels offering rooms. The tornado traveled about half a mile, spanning a space of 100 yards wide, in about 10 minutes. Residents reported heavy rains and hail, along with dirt whipping into the air and sprinkling lighting through a darkened sky.49
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard In the 64 year period for which records are available, extreme wind events have occurred at least 406 times. Therefore, based on the scale provided earlier in this section, the probability of a future occurrence is high, as the extreme wind events hazard occurs at least once every year.
11.2.2.5 Severe Summer Storms This hazard profile includes the following elements of severe summer storms: extreme heat, hail, lightning, and thunderstorms.
Description of the Hazard Severe summer storms are a common occurrence throughout the country, and can be seriously damaging in areas where they occur. Severe summer storms can encompass a variety of hazards, including extreme heat, hail, lighting, and severe thunderstorms.
Extreme Heat Extreme heat is defined as summertime weather that is substantially hotter and/or more humid than average for a location at that time of year. Extreme heat conditions can increase the incidence of mortality and morbidity in affected populations. People suffer heat-related illness when the body is unable to compensate for the extreme temperature, and is unable to cool itself.50
Hail Hail is defined as falling ice, roughly round in shape and at least 0.2’ in diameter. Hail develops in the upper atmosphere as ice crystals that are bounced about by high velocity updraft winds; the ice crystals accumulate frozen droplets and fall after developing enough weight. The size of hailstones varies and is a direct consequence of the severity and size of the storm that produces them – the higher the temperatures at the Earth’s surface, the greater the strength of the updrafts and the amount of time hailstones are suspended, the greater the size of the hailstone.51
Lightning Lightning is an electrical discharge produced by a thunderstorm. The discharge may occur between clouds, between a cloud and the ground, between the ground and a cloud, or between clouds and the air.52
Page 11-23
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Lightning rapidly heats the air in its immediate vicinity to about 50,000°F - about five times the temperature of the surface of the sun. This compresses the surrounding air and creates a supersonic shock wave, which decays to an acoustic wave that is heard as thunder.53
Severe Thunderstorms Thunderstorms are caused by an atmospheric imbalance from warm unstable air rising rapidly into the atmosphere. Strong winds, rain, and hail can accompany large thunderstorm systems. Lightning, which occurs during all thunderstorms, can strike anywhere. Severe thunderstorms are thunderstorms that are accompanied by one of more following: hail (at least .75” in diameter), winds of at least 58 MPH, or tornadoes.54
Location of the Hazard Severe summer storms are a non-spatial hazard, and can occur anywhere in Mountrail County.
Extent and Severity of the Hazard Severe summer storms have a wide range of extent and severity markers and characteristics.
Extreme Heat The National Weather Service (NWS) issues a range of watches and warnings associated with extreme heat, as illustrated below:
Excessive Heat Outlook: when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3 to 7 days. An outlook is used to indicate that a heat event may develop. It is intended to provide information to those who need considerable lead time to prepare for the event, such as public utilities, emergency management and public health officials.55 Excessive Heat Watch: when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 12 to 48 hours. A watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased, but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so, such as established individual city excessive heat event mitigation plans. Excessive Heat Watches are generally issued when heat indices are in excess of 105°F during the day combined with nighttime temperatures of 80°F or higher for two consecutive days.56 Excessive Heat Warning: when an excessive heat event is expected in the next 12 hours. The threshold for this warning is a heat index of 105°F during the day for more than 3 hours per day for two consecutive days, or a heat index of more than 115°F for any period of time.57
The NWS also developed the Heat Index (HI). The HI is also referred to as the apparent temperature. The HI, given in degrees F, is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative
Page 11-24
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy humidity (RH) is added to the actual air temperature. HI values were devised for shady areas and light wind conditions, so exposure to full sunshine can increase HI values by up to 15°F. Also, strong winds, particularly with very hot, dry air, can be extremely hazardous.
Note the shaded zone above 105°F on the Heat Index Chart. This corresponds to a level of HI that may cause increasingly severe heat disorders with continued exposure and/or physical activity.
Figure 11.2.2.5-158 Heat Index Chart
Hail The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the parent agency for the NWS) and the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO) both created Hailstorm Intensity Scales. Table 11.2.2.5-1 (following) provides details of these scales.
Page 11-25
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.5-159 60 Combined NOAA/TORRO Hailstorm Intensity Scale Typical Size Intensity Approximate Hail Typical Damage Impacts Code Category Size Diameter H0 Hard Hail Up to 0.33” Pea No damage Potentially 0.33” – Marble or H1 Slight damage to plants and crops Damaging 0.60” mothball Potentially 0.60” – Significant damage to fruit, crops and H2 Dime or grape Damaging 0.80” vegetation Severe damage to fruit and crops, damage 0.80” – Nickel to H3 Severe to glass and plastic structures, paint and 1.20” quarter wood scored 1.20” – Half dollar to Widespread glass damage, vehicle body H4 Severe 1.60” ping pong ball damage Silver dollar to Wholesale destruction of glass, damage H5 Destructive 1.60” – 2.0” golf ball to tiled roofs, significant risk of injuries H6 Destructive 2.0” – 2.4” Lime or egg Aircraft body dented, brick walls pitted Very Severe roof damage, risk of serious H7 2.4” – 3.0” Tennis ball Destructive injuries Very Baseball to H8 3.0” – 3.5” Severe damage to aircraft body Destructive orange Extensive structural damage, risk of Super H9 3.5” – 4.0” Grapefruit severe or fatal injuries to persons caught Hailstorms in the open
Lightning The National Weather Service (NWS) uses a Lightning Activity Level scale to indicate the frequency and character of cloud-to-ground (C/G) lightning, the most common form of lightning on Earth. The scale uses a range of 1 – 6, with 6 being the high end of the scale. Table 11.2.2.5-2 (following) provides this severity scale.
Page 11-26
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.5-261 Lightning Activity Level Lightning Activity Level Scale Rank Cloud and Storm Development Areal Counts C/G Counts C/G Average C/G Coverage per 5 Minutes per 15 per Minute Minutes 1 No Thunderstorms None None None None 2 Cumulus clouds are common but only a few reach the towering stage. A single thunderstorm must be confirmed in the rating area. The <15% 1-5 1-8 <1 clouds mostly produce virga but light rain will occasionally reach ground. Lightning is very infrequent. 3 Cumulus clouds are common. Swelling and towering cumulus cover less than 2/10 of the sky. Thunderstorms are few, but 2 to 15% to 24% 6-10 9-15 1-2 3 occur within the observation area. Light to moderate rain will reach the ground, and lightning is infrequent. 4 Swelling cumulus and towering cumulus cover 2-3/10 of the sky. Thunderstorms are scattered but more than three must occur 25% to 50% 11-15 16-25 2-3 within the observation area. Moderate rain is commonly produced, and lightning is frequent. 5 Towering cumulus and thunderstorms are numerous. They cover more than 3/10 and >50% >15 >25 >3 occasionally obscure the sky. Rain is moderate to heavy, and lightning is frequent and intense. 6 Dry lightning outbreak. (LAL of 3 or greater with majority of storms >15% None None None producing little or no rainfall.)
Severe Thunderstorms Thunderstorms affect relatively small areas. The typical thunderstorm is 15 miles in diameter and lasts an average of 30 minutes. Despite their small size and relatively short duration, all thunderstorms are potentially dangerous. Of the estimated 100,000 thunderstorms that occur each year in the United States, about 10% are classified as severe by the NWS. People most at risk from thunderstorms are those who are outdoors, especially under or near tall trees; in or on water; or on or near hilltops.62
Page 11-27
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
All assets and people within Mountrail County are at risk from the effects of severe summer storms, and can expect to experience the complete range of the component hazards.
Potential Impact of the Hazard Extreme Heat In 2013, 92 people died as a result of extreme heat throughout the US. This figure is down significantly from the 155 fatalities that occurred in 2012, and also down from the 10-year average of 123 fatalities. While none of these fatalities occurred in North Dakota, Mountrail County, it is not outside the realm of possibility that such could occur, as at least one reported fatality did occur in neighboring Minnesota.63
During exposure to extreme heat, the systems in the human body that are designed to deal with heat are overwhelmed. After prolonged exposure to extreme heat, the ability to sweat is compromised, which causes the body’s temperature to rise. This rise in temperature affects the brain, the central nervous system is compromised, which leads to confusion and a loss of consciousness. Organ systems begin to shut down, which will eventually result in the death of the body.64
Hail Hail typically impacts property by damaging structures, cars, and utilities as it falls. Dents in cars, broken glass, and holes in roofs are common impacts of hail. Injuries to people from hail are less common, mostly due to the size of the target in relation to the hail falling, though they can happen, as hail is a hard object, falling in an unpredictable manner at a fairly high rate of speed.
Lightning In 2014, there were 26 fatalities in the US as a result of lightning. This figure is down significantly from 2006, when 48 people were killed by lightning. Unsurprisingly, most of these occurred in Florida, and none occurred in North Dakota, though three did occur in Wisconsin. In all cases, the victims were outside, and therefore exposed to the elements.65
Simply put, the human body is not designed to withstand the 30,000 amps of charge and 50,000° F temperatures that lightning inflicts. In the simplest form, lightning acts on the body as an electrical burn, with the voltage traveling through the body before exiting, much like a gunshot wound. The majority of deaths after a lightning strike are due to cardiac arrest. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lightning strikes are fatal approximately 10% of the time. For those victims that survive, lightning almost always causes scarring known as a Lichtenburg factor. Many victims also have chronic medical conditions, including chronic pain and neurological issues, such as memory and cognitive impairment.66
Page 11-28
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.5-3 (below) illustrates statistics from the National Weather Service. Assuming a US population of 313 million (based on the 2010 Census estimate), the NWS has calculated the likelihood of the average person being struck or killed by lightning.
Table 11.2.2.5-367 Injury or Death from Lightning Probability Statistics Odds of Becoming a Victim of Lightning (2004-2013 Averages) Characteristic Probability or Statistic Estimated US population (2014) 318,000,000 Annual reported lightning fatalities 33 Annual reported lightning injuries 234 Annual estimated lightning injuries 297 Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year 1:1,190,000 (reported deaths + injuries) Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year 1:960,000 (estimated deaths + injuries) Odds of being struck by lightning in an average lifetime (80 years) 1:12,000 Odds of knowing someone struck by lightning 1:1,200 (10 people per 1 victim)
In addition to the impact lightning can have on people, lightning can have significant impacts on property. Lightning negatively impacts property of all types, though the risk is greater to sensitive facilities and properties, such as those operated by the chemical and petrochemical industries. For example, when residential structures are struck by lightning, the electrical system that services the structure is usually damaged, often leading to fire. When petrochemical and similar industrial facilities are struck, the strike often leads to fires and a malfunction of the site, which can have harmful environmental impacts.68
Thunderstorms In 2013, thunderstorms caused 17 fatalities, 121 injuries, $626.8M in property damage, and almost $51M in crop damage throughout the US.69 Every thunderstorm produces lightning, and thunderstorms are considered severe if they produce either 1” diameter hail or wind gusts of at least 58 MPH. Heavy rain from thunderstorms can cause flash flooding, and high winds can damage structures and trees.70 Most impacts occur when trees or tree limbs are pushed over or onto houses or vehicles during thunderstorms. Vehicles can also be pushed off of roadways during thunderstorm events.
Since thunderstorms and associated events often result in power failure, the operations of the city could be interrupted in the short-term. In terms of fallen tree limbs and other
Page 11-29
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
potential transportation hazards, thunderstorms may also cause disruption to community activities due to a lack of access.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Information obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) indicates that there have been at least 219 occurrences of the summer storm hazard since 1950.71
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard In the 64-year period for which records are available, the summer storm hazard has occurred at least 219 times. Several of these occasions included multiple hazards occurring simultaneously. Therefore, based on the scale provided earlier in this section, the probability of a future occurrence is high, as the summer storm hazard occurs at least once a year (an average of at least 3.43 times per year).
11.2.2.6 Severe Winter Storms This hazard profile includes the following elements of severe winter storms: blizzard/excessive snow and ice.
Description of the Hazard Winter storms are common in North Dakota with the State experiencing multiple events each year. In some cases, these winter storms can and have caused serious damage in areas where they occur. Severe winter storms can encompass a variety of hazards that can produce life threatening situations and damage to property, including:
Blizzard/Excessive Snow The National Weather Service defines snow as “precipitation is the form of ice crystals, mainly of intricately branched, hexagonal form and often agglomerated into snowflakes, formed directly from the freezing [disposition] of the water vapor in the air.”72 Heavy snow accumulations, generally more than 6” of snow in less than 24 hours or more than 4” in less than 12 hours73, can immobilize a community by bringing transportation to a halt. Until the snow can be removed, transportation routes are slowed or closed completely, limiting or halting the transportation of goods, services, and people. These closures also disrupt emergency services. In addition, accumulations of snow on roofs can cause collapse, and can cause trees and power lines to fall. A quick thaw after a significant snowfall can lead to substantial flooding, particularly in urban areas where there is more impermeable surface. Injuries and fatalities related to heavy snow are often associated with physical exertion (from shoveling) and from hypothermia.
Blizzards, as defined by the National Weather Service, are a combination of sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 MPH or greater and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile from falling or blowing snow for three hours or more.74 A blizzard, by definition, does not indicate heavy
Page 11-30
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
amounts of snow, although they can happen together. The falling or blowing snow usually creates large drifts from the strong winds. The reduced visibilities make travel, even on foot, particularly treacherous. The strong winds may also support dangerous wind chills.
Blizzard conditions can also exist without a major storm system being in the area. Strong surface winds can blow already fallen snow, which is known as a "ground blizzard”. Visibility can be reduced to near zero even though the sun is shining and the tops of power poles and trees are seen easily. These conditions are extremely variable in duration, from hours to even greater than a day. Ground blizzards are usually accompanied by very cold temperatures and wind chill conditions, making them as potentially deadly as a conventional blizzard. 75.
Ice Ice is the solid form of water, produced by freezing temperatures.76 The National Weather Service defines an ice storm as “occasions when damaging accumulations of ice are expected during freezing rain situations. Significant accumulations of ice pull down trees and utility lines resulting in loss of power and communication. These accumulations of ice make walking and driving extremely dangerous. Significant ice accumulations are usually accumulations of ¼" or greater.” The term “ice storm” is used to describe occasions when damaging accumulations of ice are expected during freezing rain situations. Ice storms can be the most damaging of winter phenomena, and are often the cause of automobile accidents, utility failures, personal injury, and death.77 Moreover, they significantly impact the delivery of emergency services.
Location of the Hazard Severe winter storms are a non-spatial hazard, and can – and do - occur anywhere in Mountrail County.
Extent and Severity of the Hazard Severe winter storms have a wide range of extent and severity markers and characteristics.
Blizzard/Excessive Snow Various intensities of snowfall are defined differently:
Blizzard describes winds of 35 MPH or more with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility to less than one-quarter mile for at least three hours.78 Blowing snow describes wind-driven snow that reduces surface visibility. Blowing snow may be falling snow and/or snow on the ground that is picked up by the wind. Blowing snow if typically accompanied by drifting snow.79
Page 11-31
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Snow squall describes a brief, intense snow shower accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation from snow squalls can be significant.80 Snow shower describes snow that falls at varying intensities for short durations. Accumulations are possible, but not required.81
Blizzard warnings are issued for winter storms that are predicted to meet the definition of a blizzard. Blowing snow advisories are issued when such conditions are expected.82 Snow advisories are issued when a low pressure system produces snow that may cause significant inconveniences, but do not meet warning criteria, and – if caution is not exercised – could lead to life threatening situations. The threshold criteria caries from area to area. Such an advisory may be issued if the forecaster feels the situation warrants one, even if the minimum criteria is not expected to be met. For example, a snow advisory may be issued for the first snow of the season, or if snow has not fallen in some time.83
Ice Ice presents a hazard in a variety of forms:
Ice storm is an occasion when damaging accumulations of ice during freezing rain situations. Significant amounts of ice typically damage trees and utility lines, and accumulations can make walking and driving exceptionally hazardous. Significant accumulations are typically one-quarter inch or greater.84 Sleet is rain that freezes into ice pellets before it reaches the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects; however, it can accumulate like snow and cause roads and walkways to become hazardous.85 Freezing drizzle is a drizzle that falls as a liquid but freezes into a glaze upon contact with the cold ground or surface structures.86 Freezing rain is rain that falls onto a surface that has a temperature below freezing. The cold surface causes the rain to freeze so the surfaces—trees, utility wires, vehicles, and roads—become glazed with ice.87
An ice storm warning is issued by the National Weather Service when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning varies from place to place, but will typically be issued any time more than one- quarter inch of ice is expected to accumulate in a given area.88
A sleet warning is issued when an accumulation of more than one-half inch of sleet is expected. This is a relatively rare scenario; most warnings are issued as winter storm warnings for heavy sleet.89
A freezing drizzle advisory or a freezing rain advisory is issued when freezing rain or freezing drizzle is forecast but significant accumulation is not expected. However, even
Page 11-32
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
small amounts of freezing rain or freezing drizzle can cause significant travel disruptions.90
Finally, the National Weather Service may issue a winter weather advisory when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, etc.) that present a hazard but does not meet established warning criteria. A winter storm watch is issued when there is a potential for heavy snow or significant ice accumulations, usually at least 24-36 hours in advance; the criteria for what defines a winter storm varies from place to place. A winter storm warning is issued when a winter storm is actively producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations; the criteria for what defines a winter storm varies from place to place.91
Potential Impact of the Hazard According to the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), most deaths from winter storms are not related to the storm itself. Rather, they are related to traffic accidents, heart attacks (from shoveling snow), and hypothermia (from prolonged exposure to cold). Of the injuries that are related to winter storms:
70% occur in automobiles; 25% are people caught in the storm; and 49% are male and over 40.92
Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees and topple utility poles and communication towers. Ice can disrupt communications and power for days while utility companies repair damage. Even small accumulations of ice can be severely dangerous to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces.
Severe winter weather can bring a community to a standstill by inhibiting transportation, knocking down trees and utility lines, and by causing structural collapse in buildings not designed to withstand the weight of accumulated snow. Repair and snow removal costs can be significant, and can easily surpass an entity’s annual salt and snow removal budget, often before the end of the winter weather season. Ice buildup can cause utilities to fail, and communication towers to cease functioning. Without electricity, heaters and pumps fail to work, causing water and sewer pipes to freeze or rupture.
Structure fires and carbon monoxide poisoning are also possible impacts of severe winter weather, as people rely on auxiliary heating devices, such as candles, portable heaters, and fuel burning lanterns.
Rural residents can be hit particularly hard by severe winter storms, if they do not have adequate stockpiles of food, water, and heating fuel. The livestock industry can be severely impacted by severe
Page 11-33
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy winter weather as well. The inability to get feed and water to livestock can quickly escalate to a critical situation, and can lead to dehydration, a major cause of livestock causalities. Cattle cannot lick enough snow to satisfy their thirst, and will die of dehydration before they succumb to cold or suffocation.
In addition to the threat posed to humans, severe winter storms pose a significant threat to utility production, which in turn threatens facilities and operations that rely on utilities, specifically climate stabilization. As temperature drop and stay low, increased demand for heating places a strain on the electrical grid, which can lead to temporary outages.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard According to the ND State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP), winter in North Dakota can begin as early as September and last into May, though the bulk of winter weather occurs from mid- November until early April. On average, there are approximately 3-5 winter storms each year; three or four of these storms will reach severe status. North Dakota typically leads the nation in blizzard and severe winter storm frequency.93
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has recorded 76 occurrences of winter storm hazards since 1996 (with each hazard recorded as a separate entry). 94 As a matter of practice, the NCDC records winter weather at the county level only.
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on the data available, severe winter storms occur in or otherwise impact Mountrail County an average of more than four times annually. Therefore, using the scale previously provided, the probability of a future occurrence of the winter storm hazard is high.
11.2.2.7 Wildland/Rural Fire This profile includes both structure fire and wildfire.
Description of the Hazard Fire is the rapid oxidation of a material in the chemical process of combustion, releasing heat, light, and various reaction products.95 The flame is the visible portion of the fire and consists of glowing hot gases. If hot enough, the gases may become ionized to produce plasma. Depending on the substances alight, and any impurities outside, the color of the flame and the fire's intensity might vary.
Fire in its most common form can result in conflagration, which may cause physical damage through burning. Fire is an important process that affects ecological systems across the globe. The positive effects of fire include stimulating growth and maintaining various ecological systems. Fire has been used by humans for cooking, generating heat, signaling, and propulsion purposes. The negative
Page 11-34
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy effects of fire include decreased water purity, increased soil erosion, an increase in atmospheric pollutants, and an increased hazard to human life.96
Wildfires, also known as Wildland/rural fire, is any fire that occurs on grassland, forest or prairie, regardless of ignition source, damages or benefits. Wildfires are usually a naturally-occurring phenomenon, though they can be caused by human action – namely arson. A wildfire differs from other fires by its extensive size, the speed at which it can spread out from its original source, its potential to change direction unexpectedly, and its ability to jump gaps such as roads, rivers and fire breaks. Wildfires are characterized in terms of the cause of ignition, their physical properties such as speed of propagation, the combustible material present, and the effect of weather on the fire.97
A structure fire involves the man-made or built environment, rather undeveloped areas. The most common type of structure fire involves residential structures. From 2007-2011, US fire departments responded to an average of 366,600 residential structure fires per year.98 Structure fires are considered a man-made hazard, in that their origins often arise from human activity and are fueled by dense development. (For the purposes of this hazard profile, structure fires are assumed to be accidental and their consequences unintended.)
Location of the Hazard While fire is a hazard that can occur anywhere, some areas are more prone to fire than others. Structure fires can and do occur anywhere that a structure exists. Wildfires can occur anywhere that burnable vegetation exists.
The US Forest Service has a new product available, called the Wildland Fire Potential assessment. This product provides an overview assessment of the areas within a defined area that have the potential to experience wildland fire. Figure 11.2.2.7-1 (following) illustrates the wildland fire potential for Mountrail County, as defined by the US Forest Service.
Note that the areas designated as “non-burnable” in the figure below are predominantly either developed or agricultural land, and that they are subject to other types of fire. By definition of the US Forest Service, however, they are outside of the wildland fire potential area.
Page 11-35
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.7-199 Mountrail County – Wildland Fire Potential Areas
Extent and Severity of the Hazard The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) is the current system in use for rating and classifying the potential danger of fire. The NFDRS trackers the effects of previous weather events on both dead and live fuel loads, and adjusts accordingly based on future or predicted weather conditions. These complex relationships and equations are computed, and the outputs are expressed in terms that users can quickly and easily understand. The current NFDRS is used by all federal and most state agencies to assess fire danger conditions.100
Table 11.2.2.7-1 (following) depicts the NFDRS, from the US Forest Service’s Wildland Fire Assessment System.
Page 11-36
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.2.2.7-1101 National Fire Danger Rating System
Rating Basic Description Detailed Description
Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands. Fires in CLASS 1: Low open or cured grassland may burn freely a few hours after Danger (L) Fires not easily rain, but wood fires spread slowly by creeping or COLOR CODE: started smoldering and burn in irregular fingers. There is little Green danger of spotting. Fires can start from most accidental causes. Fires in open cured grassland will burn briskly and spread rapidly on CLASS 2: windy days. Woods fires spread slowly to moderately fast. Moderate Fires start easily The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy Danger (M) and spread at a concentrations of fuel – especially draped fuel -- may burn COLOR CODE: moderate rate hot. Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not Blue persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is relatively easy. All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely to CLASS 3: High Fires start easily escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance spotting is Danger (H) and spread at a common. High intensity burning may develop on slopes or COLOR CODE: rapid rate in concentrations of fine fuel. Fires may become serious Yellow and their control difficult, unless they are hit hard and fast while small. Fires start easily from all causes and immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity. CLASS 4: Very Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light High Danger Fires start very fuels may quickly develop high-intensity characteristics - (VH) easily and spread such as long-distance spotting - and fire whirlwinds, when COLOR CODE: at a very fast rate they burn into heavier fuels. Direct attack at the head of Orange such fires is rarely possible after they have been burning more than a few minutes. Fires under extreme conditions start quickly, spread furiously and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high-intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the CLASS 5: Fire situation is Very High Danger class (4). Direct attack is rarely possible Extreme (E) explosive and can and may be dangerous, except immediately after ignition. COLOR CODE: result in extensive Fires that develop headway in heavy slash or in conifer Red property damage stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts. Under these conditions, the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks, until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens.
Wildfire is a hazard with a somewhat unpredictable nature. While it is at least somewhat possible to determine the areas that may be subject to experiencing wildfire, it is not possible to determine in advance how or where a wildfire will begin. Only the conditions for a wildfire can be predicted with any accuracy.
Page 11-37
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Structure fires are often described in terms of the number of “alarms” required to suppress it. The number of alarms indicates the level of response from the fire department required to extinguish the fire. The level of response is typically measured in terms of the number of firefighters and equipment called to a scene.
Potential Impact of the Hazard Wildfires are a serious threat to both life and property throughout the US. The combined effects of drought, increased temperatures, high winds, and an excess of dry vegetation has led to an increase in the severity of fire seasons over the last 5 decades. In 2013, more than 47,000 wildfires burned more than 4.3 million acres throughout the US. In 2012, 67,774 wildfires burned more than 9.3 million acres – an area larger than New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware combined. Also in 2012, more than 2,200 primary residential structures were lost as a result of wildfires.102
Structure fires have the potential for similar impacts in more developed areas, where there are more structures and more people in closer proximity. If not suppressed in time, fires can spread from one structure to another, endangering a large number of people. In addition, some structures (such as grain elevators) require specialized teams and equipment, and so response to these events may be delayed.
The increasing cost of natural gas and fuel oil has caused families to utilize alternative heating methods during colder months. As a result, the use of space heaters, fireplaces, and wood burning stoves has increased the structure fire hazard. Portable LP (propane) gas or kerosene heaters with self-contained fuel supplies can be hazardous appliances, even when used according to the manufacturer’s instructions, as their open flame design is a potential fire hazard. Fuel leaks can result in explosions, and vapors are a source of indoor air pollution, which is unhealthy for residents of the structure. Wood burning stoves can also be a point of ignition, if the stove or chimney is incorrectly installed or maintained.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Mountrail County does not have a fire department, and therefore there are no records regarding past occurrences of the fire hazard within Mountrail County. Data for the incorporated areas within Mountrail County may be found within the respective hazard profiles for those areas.
Figure 11.2.2.7-2 (following) displays the coverage areas of the municipal fire departments throughout Mountrail County.
Page 11-38
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.7-2 Mountrail County Fire Department Coverage Areas103
Page 11-39
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on the available data provided by incorporated areas, fire occurs in Mountrail County annually. Using the scale provided earlier in this section, this equates to a high probability of a future occurrence.
11.2.2.8 Hazardous Materials Incident (fixed site and transportation routes) This hazard profile includes three types of hazardous materials incidents – transportation routes, fixed sites, and pipelines.
Description of the Hazard A hazardous material is any substance or material that could adversely affect the health and/or safety of the public, the handlers, or carriers during transportation. The most common and complete listing of hazardous materials is found in 49 CFR, §172.101, List of Hazardous Materials Descriptions.104
Location of the Hazard The locations in Mountrail County most at risk from a hazardous materials incident are those that are in proximity to either locations that store/use hazardous materials or that are adjacent to transportation or transmission lines. The following figures (11.2.2.8-1 through 11.2.2.8-3) illustrate these locations in Mountrail County.
Page 11-40
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.8-1105 Hazardous Materials Locations – Railroads
Page 11-41
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.8-2106 Hazardous Materials Locations – Pipelines
Page 11-42
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.2.2.8-3107 Hazardous Materials Locations – Highways
Extent and Severity of the Hazard The US Department of Transportation, via the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, categorizes hazardous materials in nine classes, with some classes having further delineation within the class:
Class 1 – Explosive o Class 1.1 – Explosive with a mass explosion hazard o Class 1.2 – Explosive with a projection hazard, but not a mass explosion hazard o Class 1.3 – Explosive with a fire hazard, a minor blast hazard, and/or a minor projection hazard, but not a mass explosion hazard o Class 1.4 – Explosive presented no significant hazard (explosion limited to package) o Class 1.5 – Insensitive explosive with a mass explosion hazard o Class 1.6 – Extremely insensitive explosive without a mass explosion hazard Class 2 – Gas o Class 2.1 – Flammable gas
Page 11-43
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
o Class 2.2 – Non-flammable, non-toxic gas o Class 2.3 – Toxic Gas Class 3 – Flammable liquid o Class 3.1 – Flammable liquid o Class 3.2 – Combustible liquid Class 4 – Other Flammable Substance o Class 4.1 – Flammable solid o Class 4.2 – Spontaneously combustible solid o Class 4.3 – Dangerous when wet Class 5 – Oxidizing Agent and Organic Peroxide o Class 5.1 – Oxidizing agent o Class 5.2 – Organic peroxide oxidizing agent Class 6 – Toxic and Infection Substance o Class 6.1 – Poison o Class 6.2 – Biohazard Class 7 – Radioactive Substance Class 8 – Corrosive substance Class 9 - Miscellaneous108
The severity of a hazardous materials release depends upon the type of material released, the amount of the release, and the proximity to populations or environmentally sensitive areas such as wetlands or waterways. The release of materials can lead to injuries or evacuation of nearby residents. Wind direction at the time of the release can also have a bearing on the severity (as well as the location and extent) of a hazardous materials releases.
Potential Impact of the Hazard The primary threat from the hazardous materials incident hazard is to the structures located along transmission lines and transportation routes or near facilities that use or store hazardous materials. Minor incidents would likely cause no damage and little disruption. Major incidents could have fatal and disastrous consequences. The severity of a hazardous material release relates primarily to its impact on human safety and welfare and on the threat to the environment.
Threats to Human Safety and Welfare: Poisoning of water or food sources and/or supply Presence of toxic fumes or explosive conditions Damage to personal property Need for the evacuation of people Interference with public or commercial transportation
Page 11-44
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Threats to the environment: Injury or loss of animals or plants or habitats that are of economic or ecological importance such as; commercial, recreation, or subsistence fisheries (marine plants, crustaceans, shellfish, aquaculture facilities) or livestock; seal haul outs; and marine bird rookeries Impact to ecological reserves, forests, parks, archaeological, and cultural sites
In terms of property, property and people could be either directly impacted by an explosion or fire resulting from a hazardous materials release, contamination of buildings and contents, or indirectly impacted by the release of materials that necessitates evacuation and long-term abandonment of facilities.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard According to the state hazard mitigation plan, there are 1,144 TIER II facilities in Mountrail County. There are 86 miles of gas pipeline in the county, and 121 miles of liquid hazmat pipeline. In 2012, there were 170 incidents reported at Tier II facilities, resulting in the state ranking the county’s overall vulnerability to hazmat as moderate-high. Based on their analysis, the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services considers Mountrail County to be the third most vulnerable county in the state.109
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Based on data available, hazardous materials incidents occur with regularity in Mountrail County. Therefore, based on the scale provided at the beginning of this section, the probability of a future occurrence is high.
11.2.2.9 Flooding
Description of the Hazard Flooding is defined as an overflow of water onto land which is not normally covered by water. It is part of the earth’s natural hydrologic cycle. The cycle circulates water throughout the environment and maintains a balance between water in the air, on the surface and in the ground. A flood occurs when the hydrologic cycle becomes temporarily out of balance.
Mountrail County’s topography varies and goes from a pothole region in the northern two- thirds of the County to a drainage area into the Missouri River system in the lower third of the County. Beginning in 2009 the County entered into a wet cycle, documented as beginning when the State declared a snow emergency and a federal disaster declaration followed in the spring. Above normal moisture and lower than normal temperatures in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 resulted in subsequent federal disaster declarations for flooding in 2011, 2013, and 2014.110
Page 11-45
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Location of the Hazard Flooding can occur in a variety of locations throughout the rural areas Mountrail County, but is largely concentrated in the pothole region111. Map 11.2.2.9-1 (below) displays the Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) of the County, as determined by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
Map 11.2.2.9-1112 Special Flood Hazard Areas – Mountrail County
As identified in the image above, while there is an area of the County that is mapped and identified as being within the Special Flood Hazard Area, the area is very small, relative to the overall area of the county.
Extent and Severity of the Hazard The pothole region of Mountrail County has numerous sloughs and does not have drainage out of the area; evaporation is the only means by which water is removed. With above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures, the typical evaporation does not occur, which means that water remains in areas of normally dry land and causes flooding.113
Page 11-46
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Mountrail County is not a member of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), according to the May 2015 Community Status Book.114 The Federal Disaster Protection Act of 1973 requires that state and local governments participate in the NFIP as a condition for receipt of any federal loans or grants for construction projects in designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). Participation in the NFIP is voluntary and requires communities to adopt and enforce floodplain management regulations that meet NFIP minimal standards for new construction and substantial improvements in the designated SFHA.
In support of the NFIP, FEMA identifies those areas that are more vulnerable to flooding by producing Flood Hazard Boundary Maps (FHBM), Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM), and Flood Boundary and Floodway Maps (FBFM). Several areas of flood hazards are commonly identified on these maps. One of the areas identified in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA), which is a high- risk area defined as any land that would be inundated by a flood having a 1% chance of occurring in any given year (also known as the base flood). The flood zone designations are defined and described in Table 11.2.2.9-1 (below).
Table 11.2.2.9-1115 Flood Zone Designations and Descriptions
Zone Percent Annual Description Designation Chance of Flood Areas along coasts subject to inundation by the 1% annual chance of flooding with additional hazards associated with storm-induced Zone V 1% waves. Because hydraulic analyses have not been performed, no BFEs or flood depths are shown. Areas along coasts subject to inundation by the 1% annual chance of flooding with additional hazards associated with storm-induced Zones VE and 1% waves. BFEs derived from detailed hydraulic analyses are shown V1-30 within these zones. (Zone VE is used on new and revised maps in place on Zones V1-30.) Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26% chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage. Because detailed Zone A 1% analyses are not performed for such areas, no depths or base flood elevations are shown within these areas.
Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26% chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage. In most instances, Zone AE 1% base flood elevations derived from detailed analyses are shown at selected intervals within these zones.
Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding where shallow flooding Zone AH 1% (usually areas of ponding) can occur with average depths between one and three feet.
Page 11-47
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Zone Percent Annual Description Designation Chance of Flood Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding, where shallow flooding Zone AO 1% average depths are between one and three feet.
Zone X Represents areas between the limits of the 1% annual chance 0.2% (shaded) flooding and 0.2% chance flooding. Areas outside of the 1% annual chance floodplain and 0.2% Zone X annual chance floodplain, areas of 1% annual chance sheet flow Undetermined (unshaded) flooding where average depths are less than one (1) foot, areas of 1% annual chance stream flooding where the contributing
In addition, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues official watches and warnings, to alert those that may be at risk from potential flooding. Table 1.2.2.9-2 (following) defines the terms used by the NWS in these watches and warnings.
Table 11.2.2.9-2116 Flood Watch/Warning Terminology
Term Definition In hydrologic terms, a NWS outlook that is issued to alert the public of Flood Potential potentially heavy rainfall that could send area rivers and streams into Outlook flood or aggravate an existing flood
Issued to inform the public and cooperating agencies that current and Flood Watch developing hydrometeorological conditions are such that there is a threat of flooding, but the occurrence is neither certain nor imminent.
In hydrologic terms, a release by the NWS to inform the public of flooding Flood Warning along larger streams in which there is a serious threat to life or property. A flood warning will usually contain river stage (level) forecasts.
In hydrologic terms, a statement issued by the NWS to inform the public of Flood Statement flooding along major streams in which there is not a serious threat to life or property. It may also follow a flood warning to give later information.
Issued to indicate current or developing hydrologic conditions that are Flash Flood Watch favorable for flash flooding in and close to the watch area, but the occurrence is neither certain or imminent.
Issued to inform the public, emergency management and other cooperating Flash Flood Warning agencies that flash flooding is in progress, imminent, or highly likely.
Page 11-48
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Forecast guidance produced by the River Forecast Centers, often model Flash Flood Guidance output, specific to the potential for flash flooding (e.g., how much rainfall over a given area will be required to produce flash flooding).
In hydrologic terms, a statement by the NWS which provides follow-up Flash Flood Statement information on flash flood watches and warnings.
Potential Impact of the Hazard Any flood that occurs could have potential impacts to Mountrail County. Moving water exerts hydrodynamic pressure on structures; still water can be equally damaging, exerting hydrostatic pressure on those same structures. Both forces can cause serious damage to unmitigated structures. Utility systems, such as HVAC systems and grade or sub-grade pumps, can be compromised, damaged, or destroyed by flood waters, even if not completely inundated.
In addition, flooding from any source can impact transportation routes, which can result in delays received supplies, as well as causing disruptions to ingress/egress.
Past Occurrences of the Hazard Flooding in the pothole area of the County was a regular occurrence from 2009-2014. The winter of 2014-2015 and the spring of 2015, however, saw a return to more typical moisture and temperature levels, which resulted in less flooding that recent years. It is possible that this indicates a change in overall weather patterns, but it is too early to tell at this stage.117
NCDC documented four (4) occurrences of the flood hazard within Mountrail County. These occurrences were in 2003 (unincorporated county) and in 2011 (three occurrences, in the unincorporated area of Sanish, all within 90 days on one another and related to the same overall watershed-wide flood event). While physical damages were recorded for the 2011 events, none of the damages were recorded for unincorporated Sanish or Mountrail County.118
Probability of a Future Occurrence of the Hazard Using the scale provided at the beginning of this section, and noting that flooding has been an annual occurrence in the pothole area of the county for 4 of the previous 5 winters, the probability of a future occurrence is rated as high. It should be noted, however, that this flooding is more reliant on topography, geology, and prevailing weather conditions than on any normal flooding condition.
Page 11-49
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.3 Risk Assessment (Updated)
The following table (Table 11.3-1) provides a summary of the risk assessment findings from the 2006 Mountrail County Hazard Mitigation Plan, and the updated disposition of those findings for the Plan.
Page 11-50
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.3-1119 Summary of 2006 Mountrail County Hazard Mitigation Plan Risk Assessment Data Hazard Risk Ranking from 2006 Mountrail County Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazard 2006 Ranking Disposition in the Plan Update Frequency: Likely Flood Qualitative risk assessment Severity: Critical Not included in 2006 Mountrail Communicable Disease Qualitative risk assessment County HMP Frequency: Highly Likely Severe Winter Storm Qualitative risk assessment Severity: Catastrophic Not included in 2006 Mountrail Qualitative and quantitative risk Extreme Cold County HMP assessments Frequency: Highly Likely Summer Storm Qualitative risk assessment Severity: Catastrophic Extreme Wind Events Frequency: Highly Likely Qualitative and quantitative risk (tornadoes) Severity: Catastrophic assessments Hazardous Materials Frequency: Likely Qualitative and quantitative risk Incident Severity: Critical assessments Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments Frequency: Highly Likely Urban Fire Severity: Negligible Note: hazard is a function of wildland/rural fire, and is included in that hazard Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments Frequency: Highly Likely Rural Fire Severity: Negligible Note: hazard is a function of wildland/rural fire, and is included in that hazard Frequency: Likely Qualitative and quantitative risk Drought Severity: Catastrophic assessments Excluded from profiling and risk assessment due to duplication of efforts Frequency: Possible Civil Disorder/Terrorism with other plans; decision to exclude Severity: Critical based on focus on predominantly natural hazards Excluded from profiling and risk assessment due to duplication of efforts Frequency: Possible Mass Casualty with other plans; decision to exclude Severity: Negligible based on focus on predominantly natural hazards Frequency: Unlikely Qualitative risk assessment for identified Dam Failure Severity: Limited at-risk areas Excluded from profiling and risk assessment due to duplication of efforts Frequency: Unlikely Shortage of Materials with other plans; decision to exclude Severity: Critical based on focus on predominantly natural hazards
Page 11-51
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Hazard Risk Ranking from 2006 Mountrail County Hazard Mitigation Plan Hazard 2006 Ranking Disposition in the Plan Update Excluded from profiling and risk assessment due to duplication of efforts Frequency: Unlikely National Security Incident with other plans; decision to exclude Severity: Catastrophic based on focus on predominantly natural hazards
11.3.1 Risk Assessment Methodology The risk assessment describes and analyzes the risks and vulnerabilities to Mountrail County from the hazards profiled. The assessment includes a vulnerability description and information as to the identified risk to public and private assets (where applicable).
The Steering Committee conducted a risk assessment exercise to determine the vulnerabilities to assets within the planning area. The updated hazard profiles were used as the basis to determine the vulnerability of and risk to assets within the city. A variety of data sources were used to complete this risk assessment, including:
Local knowledge and experience of Steering Committee, city staff, and county staff Reports and studies provided by other agencies, both state and federal
In all instances, the best available data was utilized.
Impact Scale Methodology The potential impacts of each hazard were discussed by the Steering Committee. For the purposes of this discussion, a qualitative impact scale was developed, and was used by the Steering Committee in their discussions. As a result of these discussions, each hazard was assigned a qualitative impact ranking. This scale appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (following).
Page 11-52
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.3.1-1 Hazard Impact Scale Potential Impact Potential Impact to Assets Potential Impacts to Term to People or Life or Infrastructure Service Delivery Safety System delivery delayed or Cosmetic damages expected to temporarily interrupted; Some minor injuries assets;
Low possible, but no Interruptions in service fatalities Infrastructure loss of function delivery of less than 24 hours for less than 24 hours expected expected System delivery failures Some structural damages to expected; light construction (<50 % Injuries expected; damage); Moderate Interruptions in service
Fatalities possible delivery of 24-72 hours Infrastructure loss of function expected for 24-72 hours expected
Serious and Some structures irreparably Long-term system numerous injuries damaged (>50% damage); failures/damages expected; High expected; Infrastructure loss of function Cancellation of services (72+ Fatalities expected for 72+ hours expected hours) expected Hazard does not have Hazard does not have the Hazard does not have the the potential to Not Applicable potential to impact assets or potential to impact service impact people or life infrastructure delivery safety
The following risk and vulnerability assessment uses a GIS-based methodology, with accompanying narrative and calculations, to demonstrate the assessed risk and vulnerability of Mountrail County to the identified and profiled hazards.
Critical Assets The table below (Table 11.3.1-2) provides details of the critical assets contained within Mountrail County.
Table 11.3.1-2120 Critical Assets – Mountrail County (Updated from 2006) Asset Name Use/Function Estimated Value1 Courthouse and jail Government $50,000,000 Memorial Building Government $6,000,000 County South Complex Government $7,000,000 County Fair Building Government $3,500,000
1 Estimated value includes structure and contents.
Page 11-53
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Asset Name Use/Function Estimated Value1 County Shop (New Town) Government $3,000,000 County Trailer Government $300,000 County Shop (Plaza) Government $1,500,000 Employee Housing Residential $1,600,000 Mountrail County Housing Residential $1.500,000 Authority (Stanley) Mountrail County Housing Residential $4,000,000 Authority (New Town)
Note on asset values: All valuations used in the following estimates of potential losses are derived from an average of available data for the same or similar types of assets from other jurisdictions. The assessment that follows is an estimate only, and may not correlate with actual occurrences of the damage caused by the hazards described.
Note on the maps: the maps in this section provide estimates of municipal and county boundaries based on data available as of April and May 2014. In some cases, the boundaries depicted may not reflect recent annexations or other changes to corporate limits. However, these images reflect the best available data at the time of plan development. Future updates to this plan will reflect changes to municipal and county boundaries.
Note on population counts: GIS data and images rely on the 2010 Census. Where applicable and appropriate, some portions of this assessment use the 2012 Census Estimate. This was done to account for the significant population fluctuations that have occurred in the planning area in recent years.
11.3.2 Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
11.3.2.1 Communicable Disease
Vulnerability to the Hazard Vulnerability to the communicable diseases hazard resides in the population of a given area, both human and animal. While it is possible that assets and infrastructure could be impacted by communicable disease, these impacts would come as a secondary impact to the illness of human operators and caretakers, and not as a result of the hazard itself.
As of the 2010 Census, there were 7,673 people residing in Mountrail County. The 2012 Census Estimate places the population higher at 7,830. Each of these persons is vulnerable to communicable disease, particularly if it is a pathogen that individual has not been immunized against, or for which no immunization exists. Prolonged outbreaks could result in a loss of county services, failure of infrastructure (from lack of operators or maintenance), and closure of facilities, including schools and social centers.
Page 11-54
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
In general, the very young and the elderly, as well as those with underlying health conditions or who are immune-compromised, are more vulnerable to communicable disease.
Mountrail County has experienced a fluctuation regarding population. In 2012, the Census Bureau estimated the population to be 7,830 - an increase of 157 residents in two years, and this figure does not account for all of the temporary residents and workers in the area who would not have been counted as part the official Census or Census estimates. This increase in population, combined with the influx of temporary residences and workers - for energy-related jobs - increases the vulnerability of the area to communicable disease hazard, as new people from other areas may bring new illnesses and diseases with them, and potentially infect a previously unexposed population.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from the Mountrail County determined that communicable disease has the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.1-1 (below).
Table 11.3.2.1-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Communicable Disease Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Communicable Low Low Low Disease
Identified Data Limitations There is a wealth of technical information available for communicable disease, but limited data available regarding risk or vulnerability of specific populations. Much of the data that does exist is protected by privacy policies. Therefore, performing a highly detailed quantitative assessment for this hazard is difficult. Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to improve this methodology includes:
Data regarding infection rates at the municipal level; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding absenteeism and increased operating costs as a result of absenteeism.
Page 11-55
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
In light of this significant data limitation, and in consideration of the determined qualitative risk to Mountrail County, no quantitative risk assessment will be completed for this identified hazard.
11.3.2.2 Drought
Vulnerability to the Hazard Though there are obvious vulnerabilities for people and animals that will result from a prolonged drought, the most common impacts are generally felt in the area’s economy. This is particularly true in areas whose economies depend on agriculture, such as the State of North Dakota as a whole. Agricultural losses from drought can be staggering, and can be in the billions of dollars. Shortages as a result of drought can have far-reaching consequences, given the centralized food system that currently exists in modern western society.
As water becomes more and more precious, the value of that water will increase, resulting in issues of supply and demand. The decrease in availability of this necessary resource can result in significant societal disruption, which can worsen as the resource becomes more and more precious.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from the Mountrail County determined that drought has the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.2-1 (below).
Table 11.3.2.2-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Drought Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Drought Moderate Low Low
Estimate of Potential Losses – Quantitative Evidence suggests that the entire state of North Dakota is experiencing a significant wet cycle, that this cycle has been evolving for the previous two decades, and that scientists do not anticipate that this cycle will end in the near future.121 Despite this current trend, the Steering Committee determined that a quantitative risk assessment should be completed for this hazard,
Page 11-56
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy given the potential for catastrophe when and if this current situation changes, and that this assessment should focus on the agricultural impacts of drought.
Agricultural Impacts As of August 2014, there are 670 farms in Mountrail County; each of these farms averaged 1,438 acres, for a total of 963,700 acres dedicated to agricultural use. Individual crop numbers were unavailable, with the exception of alfalfa hay, which consumed 54,000 harvested acres in the county, and silage, which consumed 640 harvested acres.122
As of January 1, 2013 (the most recent date for which data is available), there were 32,000 head of cattle in Mountrail County, 21,500 of which were beef cattle, and 700 sheep and lambs. 123 While dairy cattle may require significantly more water than beef cattle – up to twice as much124 – the number of dairy cattle in the county is assumed to be low – no more than 10,500 head – therefore the differential in water requirements based on cattle use is negligible.
Of the 53 counties in North Dakota, Mountrail ranks 23rd in cattle, 16th in beef cattle, and 30th in sheep/lamb production. No figures are available for crop rankings.125
In 2013, Mountrail County received above average rainfall, in the amount of 4-5” (depending on location within the county). The 30-year average, ending in 2013, shows that the county’s 2013 rainfall was more than 8’ above the 30-year average.126
Quantitative Assessment Conclusion In the event of a significant or prolonged drought, there would be impacts to Mountrail County. These impacts, however, would be minimal at first, as the significant increase in rainfall in recent years has led to additional water reserves, which would be used to offset any deficit in available water for agricultural purposes. It would require a significant and prolonged drought for the impact to become significant or critical to the county, and such a circumstance is not forecast to occur in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the risk to the county from a drought is very low at this time.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a better quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding the volume of water required to maintain and support county operations; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development and population; Data regarding the exact water usage required for agricultural and livestock operations; Estimates of potential increases in operating costs that would result from a lack of water.
Page 11-57
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.3.2.3 Extreme Cold
Vulnerability to the Hazard The very young and the elderly are generally more vulnerable to the effects of extreme cold, and are more likely to suffer illness or death as a result. This is especially true if exposure is extended for a period of time.
Both development and population in Mountrail County have increased since the 2006 plan (population increase is estimated). A significant vulnerability exists in Mountrail County, in that there is no storm shelter within the county, nor any other facility that could be used as a warming center or shelter during an extreme cold spell that is accompanied by a utility outage. During the plan update process, a need was identified for a storm shelter to mitigate this identified vulnerability, as well as a need to purchase emergency power generators for existing critical facilities.
It can be assumed that as the county’s population continues to increase this will also mean that there will be an increase in county’s vulnerability in the foreseeable future.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from the Mountrail County determined that extreme cold have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.3-1 (below).
Table 11.3.2.3-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Extreme Cold Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Extreme Cold Moderate Moderate Moderate
Estimate of Potential Losses – Quantitative Extreme cold is a significant risk to particular segments of the population of Mountrail County. The following table provides the details of these more vulnerable populations, based on the 2012 Census Estimate for the county, and illustrates the population that is at particular risk from the extreme cold hazard.
Page 11-58
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.3.2.3-2127 Vulnerable Populations – Extreme Cold Population Estimate Percentage of Total Age Group (2012) Population Estimate (2012) Under 5 years 545 7.0% 5 to 9 years 481 6.1% 10 to 14 years 526 6.7% 15 to 19 years 584 7.5% 20 to 24 years 602 7.7& 25 to 34 years 999 12.8% 35 to 44 years 879 11.2% 45 to 54 years 1,173 15.0% 55 to 59 years 517 6.6% 60 to 64 years 482 6.2% 65 to 74 years 556 7.1% 75 to 84 years 339 4.3% 85 years and older 147 1.9% All age groups 7,830 100%
Figure 11.3.2.3-1 (following) illustrates the population distribution, as a percentage of the overall population, for those aged 5 and under in Mountrail County.
Page 11-59
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.3-1128 Mountrail County – Under 5 Population Distribution
Figure 11.3.2.3-2 (following) illustrates the population distribution, as a percentage of the overall population, for those aged 65-74 in Mountrail County.
Page 11-60
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.3-2129 Mountrail County – Aged 65-74 Population Distribution
Figure 11.3.2.3-3 (following) illustrates the population distribution for those aged 75-84, as a percentage of the overall population, in Mountrail County.
Page 11-61
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.3-3130 Mountrail County – Aged 74-85 Population Distribution
Figure 11.3.2.3-4 (following) illustrates the population distribution for those aged 85 and older, as a percentage of the overall population, in Mountrail County.
Page 11-62
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.3-4131 Mountrail County – Aged 85 and Older Population Distribution
Quantitative Assessment Conclusion As depicted in the preceding figures and table, the total number of people that are at risk from the effects of extreme cold in Mountrail County is 7,830. Of that group, 1,734 are at particular risk – those under 5 and those 65 and older, which make up 20.30% of the total population of Mountrail County.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a more detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during periods of extreme cold.
Page 11-63
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.3.2.4 Extreme Wind Events
Vulnerability to the Hazard People, structures, and assets are all vulnerable to the impacts associated with extreme wind events. Infrastructure can be damaged or destroyed by extreme wind events, which can result in service interruptions and outages. Electrical infrastructure, which is largely above grade, is particularly at risk from occurrence of extreme wind. Structures can be damaged or destroyed by extreme wind events, thus becoming useless to humans for protection from the elements. People can be injured or killed by extreme wind events.
Those who reside in mobile homes, RVs, man-camps or other lightweight housing are more vulnerable than those who reside in traditional construction, as these lightweight types of structures generally fail in the face of extreme wind events much such as tornadoes much sooner than their traditionally constructed counterparts.
According to the 2013 American Community Survey, there are approximately 4,260 housing units in Mountrail County.132 Information provided by the Committee during the development of the plan update indicated that there are a number of man camps, trailer/RV sites, and other temporary housing settlements throughout the County, many of which are related to current oil and gas activities. The County estimates that there are between 2,500 and 3,000 such structures throughout the County. These areas provide lodging for several thousand temporary workers while they are in the area for employment.133134 All of these are vulnerable to extreme wind events
Both development and population in Mountrail County have experienced an increase since the 2006 plan (population increase is estimated). A significant vulnerability exists in Mountrail County, in that existing storm shelters within the county may not be constructed to meet acceptable tornado safe room standards. During the plan update process, a need was identified for safe rooms to mitigate this identified vulnerability.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from the Mountrail County determined that extreme wind events have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.4-1 (below).
Page 11-64
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.3.2.4-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Extreme Wind Events Potential Impact to Extreme Wind Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service People or Life Events Infrastructure Delivery Safety Extreme Wind Moderate Moderate Moderate Events
Estimate of Potential Losses – Quantitative All structures within the Mountrail County are at risk from extreme wind events. According to the 2010 Census, there are 4,119 housing units in the county. The median value of these structures is $66,407 according to the Census. This equates to residential assets of approximately $273,530,433. If 10% of these residential assets were damaged by an extreme wind event, this would result in losses of $27,353,043. 135
In addition, all identified critical assets (identified in Table 11.3.1-1) within the county have the potential to be damaged or destroyed by extreme wind events. These assets have a combined estimated value of $78,400,000. For the purposes of this assessment a scenario was created based the documented tornado touchdown history for Mountrail County. The track of a hypothetical tornado (developed using historical track data) was overlaid onto Mountrail County. Figure 11.3.2.4-1 (following) illustrates the results of this scenario, and shows the critical assets that would be at risk for such an event.
Page 11-65
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.4-1 Tornado Scenario – Extreme Wind Events
As seen in the above figure, in such a scenario there could be significant damage in the county, including critical assets, depending on the specific track of the tornado. In this particular scenario, the county’s sheriff’s office and the health department are damaged, resulting in a potential loss of more than $50M. In addition, all residents of the county have the potential to be exposed to the hazard and suffer damages, injuries, or fatalities as a result of this exposure. For additional details, please refer to Appendix E, Tabular Data.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a more detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding building construction (materials, roof types, wind ratings, etc.); Building valuations for all county owned assets; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and
Page 11-66
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during extreme wind events.
11.3.2.5 Severe Summer Storms
Vulnerability to the Hazard People, structures, and assets are all vulnerable to the impacts associated with severe summer storms. Infrastructure can be damaged or destroyed by hail and lightning, which can result in service interruptions and outages. Structures can be damaged or destroyed by hail and lightning, thus becoming useless to humans for protection from the elements. People can be injured or killed by wind, lightning, hail, or extreme heat.
Those who reside in mobile homes, RVs, man camps, or other lightweight housing are more vulnerable than those who reside in traditional construction, as these lightweight types of structures generally fail in the face of summer storms much sooner than their heavier counterparts.
In addition, some portions of the population are more at risk to the effects of extreme heat. The very young and the elderly are generally more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat, and are more likely to suffer illness or death as a result. This is especially true if exposure for an extended period of time.
A significant vulnerability exists in Mountrail County, in that there is no storm shelter within the municipality. During the plan update process, a need was identified for a storm shelter to mitigate this identified vulnerability.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from Mountrail County determined that severe summer storms have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.5-1 (following).
Page 11-67
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.3.2.5-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Severe Summer Storm Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Severe Summer Moderate Moderate Moderate Storm
After discussion and consideration, the Steering Committee determined that a quantitative risk assessment was not necessary for Mountrail County, and that any mitigation measures that will address the county’s vulnerability to the hazards associated with severe summer storms would be addressed through mitigation of other hazards. Therefore, a quantitative risk assessment will not be performed for this hazard.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding building construction (materials, roof types, wind ratings, etc.); Building valuations for all assets within the county lines; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during severe summer storm events.
11.3.2.6 Severe Winter Storms
Vulnerability to the Hazard People, structures, and assets are all vulnerable to the impacts associated with severe winter storms. Infrastructure can be damaged or destroyed by high winds or ice, which can result in service interruptions and outages. Structures can be damaged or destroyed ice or snow weight, and thus be useless to humans for protection from the elements.
The residents of Mountrail County are vulnerable to the effects of severe winter storms. People can be injured or killed by transportation accidents (resulting from icy roadways) or can suffer hypothermia if they are caught in the storm and are unable to find shelter.
Another significant source of vulnerability related to severe winter storms is related to either transportation accidents or to utility failures. Utility failure results in disruption to electrical service, water, and natural gas, which results in loss of heat to structures.
Page 11-68
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
In the event of long-term utilities failures, the residents of Mountrail County would be dependent on their own resources for utilities, such as electricity and heating. Should those fail, or should the fuel supply for those alternate sources be depleted, there are limited options in terms of public warming centers or shelters; those that could be converted to such use would require travel for those in need of them, which is another vulnerability the population has to this hazard. In the event of a prolonged utility outage during a severe winter storm event, the population of Mountrail County would face an array of vulnerabilities from the hazard.
Transportation accidents occur when roadways and bridges become impacted and ice over, which results in loss of vehicular control and subsequent accidents.
All of these hazards are very familiar to Mountrail County, and are things that are experienced multiple times annually.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from the Mountrail County determined that severe winter storms have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.6-1 (below).
Table 11.3.2.6-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Severe Winter Storm Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Severe Winter Moderate Moderate Moderate Storm
Discussion among the Steering Committee members determined that severe winter storm, while a hazard that occurs multiple times per year, does not constitute a significant hazard to Mountrail County, and is something that the county is well versed in dealing with when it occurs. Therefore, no quantitative assessment will be performed for this hazard.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding building construction (materials, roof types, wind ratings, etc.);
Page 11-69
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Building valuations for all assets within the county lines; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during severe winter storm events
11.3.2.7 Wildland/Rural Fire
Vulnerability to the Hazard Fire has the potential to devastate a community. All people and assets within a community are vulnerable to fire. Fire can result in fatalities and injuries, in property damage or destruction, in the interruption of services, in transportation disruptions, and in economic losses.
The ability to suppress and fight a fire is contingent on having the necessary training, personnel, and equipment to bring the fire under control and to extinguish it. If one of these areas is lacking or is unavailable, the community can suffer extensive losses as a result of fire.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from Mountrail County determined that fire has the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.7-1 (below).
Table 11.3.2.7-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Wildland/Rural Fire Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Wildland/Rural Moderate Moderate Low Fire
Estimate of Potential Losses – Quantitative All structures within Mountrail County are at risk from fire. According to the 2010 Census, there are 4,119 housing units in the county; 2,793 of these units are occupied, and 1826 are vacant. The majority of these structures are heated by bottles gas, with the rest heated by electricity, natural gas, or oil. The median value of single family housing in Mountrail County is $66,407, according to the Census. This equates to potential residential losses of $273,530,433. 136
Page 11-70
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
In addition, all identified critical assets (identified in Table 11.3.1-1) within the county have the potential to be lost to fire. These assets have a combined estimated value of more than $78M.
Using the US Forest Service’s Wildland Fire Potential data, Mountrail County and its critical assets were mapped. Based on this data set, Mountrail County has very low potential for wildland fires. However, this data set does not account for agricultural lands, and so may present a diminished risk where a higher level of risk actually exists.
Figure 11.3.2.7-1 (below) illustrates this fire potential in relation to the identified critical assets for the county.
Figure 11.3.2.7-1 Wildland Fire Potential and Critical Assets
Quantitative Assessment Conclusion Mountrail County is at risk from fire, both wildland and structure. The population is vulnerable to both, as is the building stock of the county. In all, there is more than $300M in potential loss from the wildland fire hazards, though the risk is low, as the majority of assets fall into the “very
Page 11-71
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy low,” “low,” or “non-burnable” classifications of this assessment. For specific details, please refer to Appendix E, Tabular Data.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a more detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Data regarding building construction types and age; Building valuations for all assets within the county lines; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding fire protection systems within individual buildings, particularly those where flammable or combustible materials are routinely used or stored.
11.3.2.8 Hazardous Materials Incident (fixed site and transportation)
Vulnerability to the Hazard Human vulnerabilities can be significant during hazardous materials incidents. Depending on the exact material and concentration released, the health impacts to humans can be short term, long term, minor, or significant. Those in the area of the immediate release would have little or no warning prior to exposure, and would have little or no time to evacuate. Those further away may have more time to evacuate, depending on the circumstances and the conditions.
Vulnerabilities also exist to the environment, in particular air, water, and soil. For example, water sources can be threatened or contaminated by hazardous releases. A single release can create hazardous conditions for an entire area or an entire watershed. Sensitive habitats can be damaged by a reduction in air, water, and soil quality, which can lead to plant and wildlife injury or death.
While it is possible that structural losses would occur, these are more likely to occur in the immediate area of an incident involving an explosion or fire. In most cases, the vulnerability lies in contamination and in the resulting loss of use/function prior to clean up.
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 11.3.1-1 (previous).
Page 11-72
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
The representatives from Mountrail County determined that hazardous materials incidents have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.8-1 (following).
Table 11.3.2.8-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Hazardous Materials Incident Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Hazardous Materials Moderate Moderate Moderate Incident
Estimate of Potential Losses – Quantitative For the purposes of this assessment, a series of scenarios were created. Too many variables exist to specifically assess the quantitative risks to Mountrail County – variations in material, concentration, location, weather, wind, time of day, etc., will all result in differing losses. These created scenarios assume that all assets and populations within the area are equally at risk, and no assumptions are made regarding health impacts to people.
Page 11-73
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.8-1 Hazardous Materials Incident Scenario – Railroad
As is evident from the above image, the majority of the county could be impacted by a hazardous materials incident involving the rail line if the event were large enough; this includes all critical assets within the county, an estimated potential loss of more than $300M. Even if the event were smaller, it is estimated from this scenario that at least half of the assets of in the county would be at risk – more than $150M in exposure. For a listing of specific assets that are at risk in this scenario, please refer to Appendix E, Tabular Data.
Page 11-74
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.8-2 Hazardous Materials Incident Scenario – Highway
As is evident from the above image, the majority of the county could be impacted by a hazardous materials incident involving highways if the event were large enough; this includes all critical assets within the county, an estimated potential loss of more than $300M. Even if the event were smaller, it is estimated from this scenario that at least half of the assets of in the county would be at risk – more than $150M in exposure. For a listing of specific assets that are at risk in this scenario, please refer to Appendix E, Tabular Data.
Page 11-75
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 11.3.2.8-3 Hazardous Materials Incident Scenario – Pipelines
As is evident from the above image, the majority of the county could be impacted by a hazardous materials incident involving pipelines if the event were large enough; this includes most critical assets within the county, an estimated potential loss of more than $300M. Even if the event were smaller, it is estimated from this scenario that at least a quarter of the assets of in the county would be at risk – more than $75M in exposure. For a listing of specific assets that are at risk in this scenario, please refer to Appendix E, Tabular Data.
Qualitative Assessment Conclusions A detailed assessment of the risks and vulnerabilities to a hazardous materials incident is outside the scope of this plan update. It is evident, however, that Mountrail County has significant vulnerabilities to and risks from an array of hazardous materials incidents, and that serious planning and mitigation efforts must be undertaken.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a more detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Page 11-76
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Building valuations for all assets within the county lines; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; and Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during hazardous materials incidents.
11.3.2.9 Flooding
Vulnerability to the Hazard People, structures, and assets are all vulnerable to the impacts associated with flooding. Infrastructure can be damaged or destroyed by the forces of water, which can result in service interruptions and outages. Structures can be damaged or destroyed by water, and thus be useless to humans for protection from the elements. People can be injured or killed by moving water, as well as by transportation accidents resulting from infrastructure damage from moving water.
The majority of the County’s vulnerability related to flooding is caused by either property damage or loss of public infrastructure, mainly township roads and bridges. In addition, some portions of the population are more at risk to the effects of dam failure. The very young and the elderly are generally more vulnerable to the effects of flooding, and are more likely to suffer illness or death as a result.
Flooding affects people and property in a variety of ways. Floods can force evacuations of vulnerable people, cause property damage, interrupt transportation routes and supply lines, and wreak havoc on the day-to-day existence of a community.137
Estimate of Potential Losses – Qualitative In the course of updating this Plan, the Steering Committee completed a qualitative risk assessment exercise. This exercise asked the representatives from each participating jurisdiction to rank the hazards in the Plan according to their potential to impact and cause loss to their particular jurisdiction. The explanation for these rankings appears in Table 1.3.1-1 (previous).
The representatives from Mountrail County determined that flooding incidents have the potential to cause the impacts described in Table 11.3.2.9-1 (following).
Page 11-77
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 1.3.2.9-1 Qualitative Hazard Impacts – Flooding Potential Impact to Potential Impact to Assets or Potential Impacts to Service Hazard People or Life Infrastructure Delivery Safety Flooding Moderate Moderate Moderate
Because of the current cause of the County’s flooding – a variation from typical weather patterns combined with unique geologic conditions – the Committee does not believe that a quantitative risk assessment is necessary or valuable to them at this time, as flooding is not considered to be a significant risk to the County.
Identified Data Limitations Data that could be collected prior to the next update in order to develop a more detailed quantitative risk assessment includes:
Building valuations for all assets within the city limits; Data regarding expected/projected changes in development; Data regarding projected population changes; Data regarding traffic conditions when roadways are impacted; and Data regarding the location of vulnerable populations that may require services or special attention during hazardous materials incidents.
Page 11-78
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
11.4 Capability Assessment (Updated)
A capability assessment adds context to a mitigation plan by providing an inventory of a municipality’s programs and policies, and an analysis of its capacity to carry them out. These are essential for developing mitigation strategies and actions.
This capability assessment is a review of Mountrail County’s resources in order to identify, review, and analyze what the county is currently doing to reduce losses, and to identify the framework that is in place for the implementation of new mitigation activities. In addition, this assessment will be useful in gauging whether the current local organizational structures and inter-jurisdictional coordination mechanisms for hazard mitigation could be improved, and how.
This local capability is extremely important, because the municipal officials know their own landscape best. Additionally, many of the most critical and effective hazard mitigation strategies and programs, including enforcement of floodplain management, building codes, and land-use planning, require a strong local role to achieve effective implementation.
This capability assessment primarily results from research and interviews with county staff. Relevant documents were reviewed related to hazard mitigation, including the State of North Dakota Hazard Mitigation Plan, as well as state and federal sources related to funding, planning, and regulatory capability. Summary information from these sources can be found in Section 03.
For this assessment, a written questionnaire was provided to the jurisdiction, with a request that it be completed by a person or persons knowledgeable of the topics. The questionnaire covered a variety of topics, including administrative and fiscal capacity, planning and zoning, floodplain management, and inter- and intra-governmental coordination, and was based on the information found in the 2006 plan. The findings from this survey, as compared to the capability and capacity described in the 2006 plan, are displayed in the table below.
Figure 11.4-1 Capability/Capacity Assessment Survey Results Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Coordinate emergency planning Mountrail County and response activities with Emergency various county agencies. X X Management Planning includes preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation.
Page 11-79
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Mountrail County Responsible for everyday Emergency operations of the county's X X Management Emergency Operations Center. Responsible for county-wide communications system through Mountrail County the Mountrail County Dispatch Emergency Center, including radio and X X Management telephone systems. Also offer technical and administrative assistance to other county agencies. Mountrail County Update and exercise emergency Emergency X X operations and mitigation plans. Management Coordinate state-sponsored training for county agencies, Mountrail County including law enforcement, Emergency X X public health, social services, fire Management departments, emergency medical services, etc. Mountrail County Coordinate the county's Local Emergency X X Emergency Planning Committee. Management Mountrail County Coordinate the county's Tier Two Emergency X X reporting (hazardous materials). Management Public awareness and Mountrail County educational programs via Emergency X X newspapers, radio, and schools to Management decrease vulnerability to hazards. Work with schools and local Mountrail County businesses to help create site- Emergency specific hazard response plans X X Management and present in-service education to local business employees. Responsible for timely and Mountrail County effective public information Emergency X X releases during emergency Management situations. During a disaster declaration, Mountrail County emergency management has all Emergency county resources at their disposal X X Management including manpower, communications, and equipment.
Page 11-80
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Mountrail County Implement effective planning, Emergency training, and exercises to mitigate X X Management potential risks within the county. Assist in damage assessments Mountrail County and coordinate with state and Emergency X X federal agencies for recovery Management assistance. In coordination with County Mountrail County Economic Development, assist Emergency with applications for federal and X X Management state funding, such as the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Mountrail County Involved in inspecting hazardous Emergency material storage sites to fulfil X X Management Tier Two requirements. Mountrail County Emergency Participate in dam inspections. X X Management Coordinates with appropriate local agencies to ensure preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. These agencies include Mountrail Mountrail County County Commissioners, Emergency Mountrail County District Health, X X Management Mountrail County Road Department, Mountrail County Sheriff Department, and various other law enforcement, fire, communication, and emergency medical agencies. Coordinates with numerous state and federal agencies responsible for emergency management, including the North Dakota Mountrail County Department of Emergency Emergency Services, the North Dakota X X Management Highway Patrol, the State Health Department, the State Department of Transportation, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Page 11-81
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Provide listings of eligible Mountrail County mitigation projects so the county Emergency and municipalities can be Management prepared when funds become X X available.
Recommend capacity increase Mountrail County Maintain warning systems Emergency throughout the county. Management X X
Recommend capacity increase.
Mountrail County is constantly striving to improve planning and exercise activities and response capabilities; however, with the county changing from an agrarian Mountrail County community to a more industrial Emergency X X one, the threat of potential Management hazards increases, which increases the need for resources, training, and awareness.
Recommend capacity increase. Mountrail County Assist with enforcement of Emergency zoning requirements for X X Management floodplain management. Design bridges, culverts, and overflow sections. The county is working to reduce the total number of bridges by either eliminating them entirely or Mountrail County removing the structures and X X Road Department using a "low water crossing" on lower service roads only. The County Highway Department follows a very detailed list of design standards for all projects within the county. Continually working with the Mountrail County Department of Transportation on X X Road Department various projects, as the DOT dispenses federal funding.
Page 11-82
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Responsible for and have Mountrail County authority to regulate and inspect X X Road Department all road projects completed within the county. All projects funded by the state or federal government are designed by a consulting engineer and meet the usual acceptable federal standards. Inspection of federal aid projects is the responsibility Mountrail County of the consulting engineering X X Road Department company and is overseen by the county to ensure standards are met. Many county projects are designed with in-house expertise and engineers are consulted if problems arise. All funding (in one way or another) comes through the Mountrail County county, whether it is a certain X X Road Department percentage of the federal aid project or 100% of the county projects. Coordinate with various county agencies concerning right-of-way and right-of-way purchasing. The legal aspect of right-of-way Mountrail County purchasing is overseen by the X X Road Department States Attorney's Office. The land values are usually developed by the Tax Equalization Office and approved by the County Commission. Coordinate with various state and federal agencies for technical assistance, permitting, environmental concerns, archeological sites, and cultural Mountrail County issues. These agencies include X X Road Department the North Dakota Department of Transportation, US Fish and Wildlife, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the North Dakota Historical Society.
Page 11-83
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Assist local government with floodplain management and Mountrail County water development permitting. X X Road Department
Recommend capacity increase. Deal with health hazards using cause and effect in those areas for both mitigation and risk reduction. If it is a hazard Upper Missouri affecting any number of persons District Health and within the scope of public X X Unit health, Health will mitigate or exercise risk reduction through several methods ranging from enforcement of statutes to immunization programs. Environmental Health out of Grand Forks has the knowledge Mountrail County and also access to the State X X Health Unit Health Department for mitigation of incidents with hazardous or toxic wastes. Programs include waste water treatment, water pollution, public Upper Missouri health nursing, immunization District Health X X programs, solid waste regulation, Unit food establishment inspections, air quality, and vector control. Upper Missouri Enforce state public health District Health X X statutes within the county. Unit Coordinate with the following local agencies; Mountrail County Upper Missouri Emergency Management, North District Health Dakota Department of Health, X X Unit law enforcement agencies (city and county), school boards, and planning and zoning agencies.
Page 11-84
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Public Health is normally underfunded and understaffed at all levels of government. Should Upper Missouri District Health be called upon for expertise at a Upper Missouri time of emergency or disaster, it District Health normally does not have X X Unit instrumentation for site-level determinations of any kind without support from other agencies.
Recommend capacity increase. Public health agencies should be included in equipment storage; e.g., FEMA equipment "stored" and used at public health agencies, rather than being stored at a warehouse. For example, radio equipment that belongs to FEMA is based at Upper Missouri county emergency management District Health X X offices; the same could be done Unit with air sampling equipment or other instruments /kits etc., which could be used by public health agencies both for daily work and at a time of emergency or disaster.
Recommend capacity increase. Responsible for law enforcement Mountrail County and criminal investigation in Sheriff’s unincorporated areas of the X X Department county and in smaller towns that do not have police departments. Provide 911 emergency Mountrail County operations through its Sheriff’s X X involvement with State Department Radio. Mountrail County Provide standard law Sheriff’s enforcement manpower and X X Department equipment
Page 11-85
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) In disaster situations, provide Mountrail County warning, rescue assistance, Sheriff’s evacuation assistance, security, X X Department traffic control, and information assistance. Mountrail County Coordinate the necessary Sheriff’s resources to obtain a dive rescue X X Department team. Provide public awareness and Mountrail County educational programs. (911 Sheriff’s X X education, safe kids program, Department etc.) Have mutual aid agreements with Mountrail County all surrounding counties and the Sheriff’s X X North Dakota State Highway Department Patrol. Within the scope of law enforcement, the Mountrail County Sheriff's Department Mountrail County coordinates with various local Sheriff’s X X agencies. These agencies include Department Mountrail County Emergency Management and various local police departments. Mountrail County Sheriff's Department coordinates with appropriate state and federal agencies including: North Dakota Mountrail County Highway Patrol, North Dakota Sheriff’s Attorney General’s Office, Bureau X X Department of Criminal Investigation, North Dakota State Radio, North Dakota Department of Transportation, and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Explore funding resources to Mountrail County upgrade technology such as Sheriff’s X X mobile data terminals, Department computers, etc. Upgrade communication integration among other state Mountrail County and federal agencies for Sheriff’s X X information sharing. Department
Recommend capacity increase.
Page 11-86
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) X Respond to fires in order to (accounted City/Rural Fire protect lives, limit injuries, and X for in Departments minimize damage to property municipal and the environment. assessments) X (accounted City/Rural Fire Respond to accidents in order to X for in Departments provide rescue assistance. municipal assessments) X Assist Emergency Medical (accounted City/Rural Fire Services in providing emergency X for in Departments assistance to sick and injured. municipal (first responders) assessments) X (accounted City/Rural Fire Provide standard firefighting X for in Departments manpower and equipment. municipal assessments) Respond to spills and releases of X hazardous materials and assist in (accounted City/Rural Fire mitigating the detrimental X for in Departments human and environmental effects municipal of these occurrences. assessments) Respond to emergencies X resulting from natural (accounted City/Rural Fire occurrences such as storms, X for in Departments floods, etc., and assist in municipal mitigating the detrimental results assessments) of these occurrences. Provide training for department X members that enable them to (accounted City/Rural Fire effectively and efficiently carry X for in Departments out their respective duties and municipal responsibilities. assessments) X Develop and provide educational (accounted City/Rural Fire programs that promote the X for in Departments prevention of fires and encourage municipal fire-safe and fire-smart activities. assessments)
Page 11-87
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) X (accounted City/Rural Fire Assist in enforcement of city fire X for in Departments ordinances. municipal assessments) X (accounted City/Rural Fire Fire investigation X for in Departments municipal assessments) X (accounted City/Rural Fire Inspect and certify alarm X for in Departments systems, fire extinguishers, etc. municipal assessments) X Assist with the county's tier two (accounted City/Rural Fire reporting. (Hazardous materials X for in Departments storage sites) municipal assessments) X In disaster situations, provide (accounted City/Rural Fire assistance in warning, rescue, X for in Departments evacuation, and situation municipal updates. assessments) In efforts to decrease vulnerability to hazards, the City/Rural Fire Departments coordinate with various local X agencies. These agencies include (accounted City/Rural Fire Mountrail County Emergency X for in Departments Management, Mountrail County municipal Sheriff's Department, Rural Fire assessments) Departments, Mountrail County Public Works, and various local EMS agencies. In efforts to decrease vulnerability to hazards, the X City/Rural Fire Departments (accounted City/Rural Fire coordinate with various state and X for in Departments federal agencies, including the municipal North Dakota State Fire Marshal assessments) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Page 11-88
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) City/Rural Fire Departments do not have the training or X equipment to safely respond to (accounted City/Rural Fire hazardous material incidents or X for in Departments heavy industrial accidents. (such municipal as the Burlington Northern Santa assessments) Fe Railroad) Only one career firefighter is on duty on a 24-hour basis, which is X inadequate for optimal (accounted City/Rural Fire emergency response. Also, X for in Departments volunteer firefighter's access to municipal stations is sometimes difficult assessments) during severe weather situations. X (accounted City/Rural Fire Explore funding resources for X for in Departments programs. municipal assessments) The Mountrail County Extension Service is linked in a unique partnership with North Dakota Mountrail County State University to provide Agricultural practical, research-based X X Services information and educational Department programs to address critical issues facing individuals, families, agricultural producers, business operators, and communities. Serve as subject-matter experts, educational planners, adult and Mountrail County youth teachers and community Agricultural facilitators in several areas X X Services including agriculture and natural Department resources, horticulture, family and consumer sciences, 4-H and youth community development. Mountrail County Provide planning, designing, Agricultural implementing, and evaluating of X X Services educational programs for Department livestock and forage producers. Mountrail County Areas of responsibility include Agricultural beef and dairy cattle, swine, other X X Services livestock, water quality, waste Department management, and forages.
Page 11-89
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Provide programming for county citizens in the areas of family Mountrail County financial management, Agricultural environmental concerns, housing, X X Services health and wellness, aging, foods Department and nutrition, parenting, and human development. Serve as an information resource Mountrail County in dealing with drought, winter Agricultural storms, summer storms etc. in X X Services relation to agriculture, Department environment, water resources, etc. Mountrail County Agricultural Assist with damage assessment X X Services related to agriculture. Department Coordinate with Mountrail County Emergency Management Mountrail County Agency, Mountrail County Health Agricultural Unit, North Dakota State X X Services University, North Dakota State Department Health Department, US Department of Agriculture, and Farm Service Agency. Other Agency Manage the Elm and Goose River Resources: Floodplains (dike system). X X Provide engineering expertise, Rural Water supply sandbags and pumps. District Other Agency Temporary assistance to needy Resources: families, food stamps, medically needy programs, adult services, X X Mountrail County homeless assistance, family Social Services planning, etc. Other Agency X General fire suppression, rescue, Resources: (accounted no hazardous materials response, X for in public awareness and Stanley Fire municipal educational programs. Department assessments) Other Agency X General fire suppression, no Resources: (accounted rescue, no hazardous materials X for in response, public awareness and Parshall Fire municipal educational programs. Department assessments)
Page 11-90
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Other Agency X General fire suppression, rescue, Resources: (accounted no hazardous materials response, X for in public awareness and Plaza Fire municipal educational programs. Department assessments) Other Agency X General fire suppression, rescue, Resources: (accounted no hazardous materials response, X for in public awareness and New Town Fire municipal educational programs. Department assessments) Other Agency X Resources: Emergency response, patient (accounted
care, transport, and public X for in Parshall awareness programs. municipal Ambulance assessments) Service Other Agency X Resources: Emergency response, patient (accounted care, transport, and public X for in Plaza Ambulance awareness programs. municipal Service assessments) Other Agency X Resources: Emergency response, patient (accounted
care, transport, and public X for in New Town awareness programs. municipal Ambulance assessments) Service Other Agency Water and dam management Resources: within the county. Provide X X technical expertise, sandbags, US Army Corps of and heavy equipment. Engineers Situation and damage Other Agency assessment; provide Resources: transportation resources for movement of state personnel, X X North Dakota supplies, and equipment to Highway Patrol include air and ground reconnaissance; traffic control. Other Agency Hazmat route utilization; hazmat Resources: technical assistance; situation X X
and damage assessment. State Fire Marshal
Page 11-91
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Deleted from Confirmed 2014 Update Noted in 2006 Agency Capability/Capacity for 2014 (no longer Plan Update applicable or available) Other Agency Debris removal from recreational Resources: facilities; technical assistance; X X situation and damage North Dakota assessment. Forestry Service Other Agency Technical assistance; debris Resources: removal from recreational facilities; facility improvements; X X North Dakota situation and damage Game and Fish assessment. Other Agency Exercise readiness of warning Resources: systems and communication X X
support. State Radio Other Agency Assists with situation and Resources: damage assessment;
coordination with USDA; hazmat X X North Dakota technical assistance; state land Department of use program. Agriculture Other Agency Situation assessment and Resources: administration of disaster X X unemployment assistance North Dakota Job programs. Service Other Agency Resources: Ensure liaison with private relief X X agencies for disaster victims. North Dakota Human Services Other Agency Resources: Project screening and situation X X assessment. State Historical Society
Mountrail County depends on the framework established by the federal and state governments for technical assistance, and is helped by the state and federal government for funding.
Mountrail County has some existing planning mechanisms, including an Emergency Operations Plan and this hazard mitigation plan, and does have and enforce zoning/building codes. Other planning mechanisms have been discussed and will likely be implemented in the future, but these are the only current mechanisms in place.
Page 11-92
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Conclusions and Recommendations Mountrail County should continue to build its capability and capacity for disaster recovery and hazard mitigation, and should continue to work with the incorporate municipalities, state agencies, and federal and NGO partners towards this end.
11.5 Mitigation Strategy (Updated)
Requirement §201.6(c)(3): [The plan shall include the following] a mitigation strategy that provides the jurisdiction’s blueprint for reducing the potential losses identified in the risk assessment, based on existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources, and its ability to expand on and improve these existing tools. This section shall include:
Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(i): A description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards.
Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii): A section that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure. All plans approved by FEMA after October 1, 2008 must also address the jurisdiction’s participation in the NFIP, and continued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate.
Requirement: §201.6(c)(3)(iii): An action plan describing how the actions identified in section (c)(3)(ii) will be prioritized, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdiction. Prioritization shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs.
Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(iv): For multi-jurisdictional plans, there must be identifiable action items specific to the jurisdiction requesting FEMA approval or credit of the plan.
11.5.1 Mitigation Goals Table 11.5.1-1 (below) provides the mitigation goals that guide Mountrail County’s mitigation strategy.
Table 11.5.1-1 Mitigation Goals (2006 and 2014) 2006 Goals Notes 2014 Goals Goal #1 Goal #1 Increase the capability to warn Goal remains valid, with Protect public health and safety citizens of impending disasters. minor language change. before, during, and after hazard events
Page 11-93
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
2006 Goals Notes 2014 Goals Goal #2: Reduce the possibility of civil disorder/terrorism by actively Goal eliminated –no longer Goal eliminated identifying potential targets and applicable to HIRA. providing a system to secure, prepare and defend. Goal #3: Reduce the impact of the Goal eliminated –no longer Goal eliminated flooding hazard by identifying applicable to HIRA. repetitive loss and at risk structures. Goal #4: Reduce the impact of hazardous Goal #2 Communications has been materials by studying the Ensure post-disaster operability addressed through other effects to reduce, remove, or of critical assets and means; new goal identified restrict hazardous materials infrastructure. and validated. without unduly impacting business. Goal #5: Goal #3 Support and participate in Goal remains valid, with Increase public awareness of public awareness of all hazards, minor language change. hazards and support for their impact, and prevention mitigation activities. methods. Goal #6: Goal #4 Work in a coordinated manner Provide long-term mitigation Goal remains valid, with with other jurisdictions to solutions to hazard prone areas minor language change. effectively muster resources to through both structural and non- reduce impacts of hazards structural means.
11.5.2 Mitigation Actions
Potential Mitigation Actions Potential actions were identified in the Steering Committee meetings. This was based in part on consideration of the range of potential mitigation actions for hazards faced by Mountrail County.
Wind Retrofits Structures can be retrofitted to withstand high winds by installing, roof tie-downs and other storm protection features. The exterior integrity (i.e. building envelope) is maintained by protecting the interior of the structure and providing stability against wind hazards associated with extreme winds. This also improves the ability to achieve a continuous load path. These types of measures can be relatively inexpensive and simple to put in place.
Early Warning Systems With sufficient warning of a hazard event, a community and its residents can take protective measures such as moving personal property and people out of harm’s way. When a threat recognition system is combined with an emergency response plan that addresses the community's
Page 11-94
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy hazard vulnerabilities, considerable damage can be prevented. This system must be designed to warn the public, to notify responders to carry out appropriate tasks, and to coordinate the hazard response plan with operators of critical facilities. A comprehensive education and outreach program is critical to the success of early warning systems so that the public, operators of critical facilities, and emergency response personnel will know what actions to take when warning is disseminated.
Early warning systems include siren systems, reverse 911 systems, and other technologies used to warn faculty and students of impending events.
Early warning systems serve to assist the communities with problems experienced from extreme winds, severe storms, and hazardous materials incidents, and can also be used to notify people regarding announced evacuations.
Drought In general, communities can have little influence or impact on mitigating the impact of droughts except through ensuring adequate water supplies for normal circumstances and through implementation of water conservation measures when drought conditions are imminent. Undertaking drought impact studies, as well as searching for alternative water supplies can both set the foundation for future mitigation measures.
Prioritized Mitigation Actions The following table (11.5.2-2) identified specific mitigation actions to achieve the stated goals of the Plan. For each action, an appropriate responsible party has been identified, as well as the action’s applicability to either new or existing development. Also, each action has been assigned an estimated cost and suggested funding sources.
For all of the actions in the following table (11.5.2-2), the timeframe for implementation is 1-5 years, depending on availability of funding and resources.
Each of these actions has been prioritized. Priorities were determined on a qualitative basis; factors such as general feasibility and anticipated effectiveness of risk reduction. Detailed cost- benefit analyses were not performed, but general cost-effectiveness of the actions was taken into account.
The method that was used to determine prioritization is called STAPLEE. This methodology considers a variety of factors; specifically, Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, and Environmental factors. This method helped Mountrail County to weigh the pros and cons of different alternatives and actions for each of the actions described in Tables 11.5.2-2 through 11.5.2-5. Table 11.5.2-1 (following) describes the basic criteria considered as part of the prioritization process.
Page 11-95
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.5.2-1 STAPLEE Criteria STAPLEE Criteria Explanation Mitigation actions are acceptable to the community if they do not adversely affect a particular segment of the population, do not cause S-Social relocation of lower income people, and if they are compatible with the community’s social and cultural values.
Mitigation actions are technically most effective if they provide long-term T-Technical reduction of losses and have minimal secondary adverse impacts.
Mitigation actions are easier to implement if the jurisdiction has the A-Administrative necessary staffing and funding.
Mitigation actions can truly be successful if all stakeholders have been P-Political offered an opportunity to participate in the planning process and if there is public support for the action.
It is critical that the jurisdiction or implementing agency have the legal L-Legal authority to implement and enforce a mitigation action.
Budget constraints can significantly deter the implementation of E-Economic mitigation actions. Hence, it is important to evaluate whether an action is cost-effective, as determined by a cost benefit review, and possible to fund. Sustainable mitigation actions that do not have an adverse effect on the environment, that comply with federal, state, and local environmental E-Environmental regulations, and that are consistent with the community’s environmental goals, have mitigation benefits while being environmentally sound.
Cost-Effectiveness Per the IFR, communities are required to use cost-effectiveness in the prioritization of projects and actions. At this point, the analysis of costs and benefits has been completed at a general level. As funding becomes available, a more extensive and specific process will be completed.
Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) compares the benefits of mitigation actions to the costs, and is a technique used for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of mitigation actions. FEMA requires a BCA for all mitigation projects that received FEMA-funding.
The following tables (11.5.2-2 through 11.5.2-5) provides the identified and prioritized mitigation strategy for Mountrail County.
Page 11-96 Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.5.2-2 Mitigation Strategy – Goal #1 – Mountrail County Goal #1: Protect Public health and safety before, during, and after hazard events. Action number 1.1 Action Purchase and install additional warning sirens description: Communicable disease; drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe Hazard (s) to summer storm; severe winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials be mitigated: incident; flooding New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $10,000+ Priority High Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
Action number 1.2 Action Purchase and install emergency power generators at community facilities, to description: protect the public during hazard events Communicable disease; drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe Hazard (s) to summer storm; severe winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials be mitigated: incident; flooding New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $20,000+ Priority High Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-97
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.5.2-3 Mitigation Strategy – Goal #2 – Mountrail County Goal #2: Ensure post-disaster operability of critical assets and infrastructure. Action number 2.1 Action Purchase and install emergency power generators at critical facilities and description: infrastructure, to ensure operability of the asset post-disaster Communicable disease; drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe Hazard (s) to summer storm; severe winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials be mitigated: incident; flooding New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $20,000+ Priority High Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
Action number 2.2 Action Harden and/or protect critical facilities and infrastructure, to ensure description: operability of the asset post-disaster, including bridges and culverts Hazard (s) to Drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe summer storm; severe be mitigated: winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials incident; flooding New action or Carryover carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $40,000+ Priority High Notes/Update Carryover action from 2006 plan (modified)
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-98
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.5.2-4 Mitigation Strategy – Goal #3 – Mountrail County Goal #3: Increase public awareness of hazards and support for mitigation activities. Action number 3.1 Action Develop and implement public education and hazard awareness program. description: Communicable disease; drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe Hazard (s) to summer storm; severe winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials be mitigated: incident; flooding New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $500 Priority High Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
Action number 3.2 Action Develop and implement public education program for the construction of fire description: break networks, including for CRP locations. Hazard (s) to Wildland fire be mitigated: New action or Carryover carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $5,000 Priority Low Notes/Update Carryover from 2006 plan (modified)
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-99
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Table 11.5.2-5 Mitigation Strategy – Goal #4 – Mountrail County Goal #4: Provide long-term mitigation solutions to hazard-prone areas through both structural and non-structural means. Action number 4.1 Action Construct, purchase, or retrofit safe room(s) description: Hazard (s) to Extreme wind event; severe summer storm; severe winter storm be mitigated: New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $20,000+ Priority High Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
Action number 4.2 Action Collect, track, organize, and store data regarding community-specific attributes, description: vulnerabilities, and mitigation needs for use in planning mechanisms. Communicable disease; drought; extreme cold; extreme wind event; severe Hazard (s) to summer storm; severe winter storm; wildland fire; hazardous materials be mitigated: incident; flooding New action or New carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Emergency Management department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $10,000+ Priority Moderate Notes/Update New action for 2014 update.
Action number 4.3 Action Institute weed control measures, including mowing, around towns. description: Hazard (s) to Communicable disease; wildland fire
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-100
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
be mitigated: New action or Carryover carryover Development All – new and existing protected Responsible County; Mountrail County Agricultural Agency department(s) Financial General funds; NDDES funds; FEMA funds (HMGP and HMA) resources Estimated cost $15,000+ Priority Low Notes/Update Carryover from 2006 plan (modified)
Removed Actions The following actions were included in the 2006 plan, and have not been carried forward to this plan update for the reason indicated:
Action #09 – Remove old and abandoned buildings around towns. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #10 – Develop alternate water supplies to fires in towns. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #12 – Hay CRP land that surrounds all towns in county. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #13 – Construct a fire break network for certain CRP locations. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #14 – Purchase drop tanks for fields and develop access roads. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #15 – Recruit for volunteer fire departments. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #16 – Increase water storage capacity to enhance firefighting capability. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
Action #17– Provide awareness training for meth labs. Reason for removal: action is no longer applicable for this community and this plan.
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-101
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
Endnotes
1 National Climatic Data Center. Archived data from 1950 through 2011. Print. Additional data retrieved 04.03.15 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ 2 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Disaster Declarations for North Dakota. Retrieved 09.02.14 from http://www.fema.gov/disasters/grid/state-tribal-government/11 3 Mayo Clinic. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/infectious- diseases/basics/definition/con-20033534 4 US Department of Health and Human Services, Public Health Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories. 5th edition. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.cdc.gov/biosafety/publications/bmbl5/BMBL.pdf 5 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndflu.com/AboutInfluenza.aspx 6 North Dakota Department of Health. Historical Data – Influenza. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndflu.com/DataStats/HistoricalData.aspx 7 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Disease/Documents/faqs/Pertussis.pdf 8 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2006 9 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2007 10 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2008 11 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2009 12 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2010 13 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2011 14 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2012 15 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Immunize/Disease/PertussisCounty.aspx?CountyID=31&y=2013 16 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/Disease/Documents/faqs/Rabies.pdf 17 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/RabiesCounty2006.pdf 18 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2007_Rabies_Cases.pdf 19 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2008CountyLevelNumbersbySpecies.pdf 20 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2009CountyLevelNumbersbyCounty.pdf 21 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2010CountyLevelNumbersbySpecies.pdf 22 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2011CountyLevelNumbersbySpecies.pdf 23 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2012CountyLevelNumberbySpecies.pdf
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-102
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
24 North Dakota Department of Health. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ndhealth.gov/disease/Rabies/Documents/2013CountyLevelNumberbySpecies.pdf 25 National Drought Mitigation Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://drought.unl.edu/DroughtBasics/WhatisDrought.aspx 26 National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring- references/dyk/drought-definition 27 National Drought Mitigation Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://drought.unl.edu/Planning/Monitoring/ComparisonofIndicesIntro/PDSI.aspx 28 National Drought Mitigation Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://drought.unl.edu/Planning/Monitoring/ComparisonofIndicesIntro/PDSI.aspx 29 US Drought Monitor. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdfs/20140826/20140826_high_plains_trd.pdf 30 National Drought Mitigation Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://drought.unl.edu/DroughtBasics/DustBowl.aspx 31 State of North Dakota Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. 2014. Print. 32 North Dakota State Water Commission. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://localtvwqad.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/july1988drought.jpg 33 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Extreme Cold: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety. Print. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/pdf/extreme- cold-guide.pdf 34 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/staysafe/hypothermia.asp 35 The Weather Channel. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/58763 36 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml 37 The Weather Channel. 2011. NWS Tests Extreme Cold Warning. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/extreme-cold-watch-warning- experimental_2011-01-04 38 The Bismarck Tribune. 2012. National Weather Service ditching ‘extreme cold’ warnings. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/national-weather-service-ditching-extreme-cold- warnings/article_31ac76e0-1e19-11e2-a2b1-001a4bcf887a.html 39 National Climatic Data Center. Storm Events Database. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=38%2CNORTH+DAKOTA 40 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=w 41 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=t 42 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 43 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=w 44 Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ 45 Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html 46 Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html 47 Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html 48 National Climatic Data Center. Archived data from 1950 through 2011. Print. Additional data retrieved 09.02.14 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ 49 Reuters. Tornado injures nine, one critically, in North Dakota. May 27, 2014. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/27/us-usa-weather-tornado-idUSKBN0E720O20140527 50 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/heat_guide.asp 51 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-103
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
52 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=l 53 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/science/science- overview.htm 54 The Weather Channel. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.weather.com/encyclopedia/thunder/svrtstm.html 55 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=e 56 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=e 57 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=e 58 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml 59 National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/faq.jsp 60 Tornado and Storm Research Organisation. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hscale.php 61 National Weather Service. Retrieved 09.03.14 from: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/Chart%201.htm 62 National Weather Service. Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Lightning… Nature’s Most Violent Storms. Print. Retrieved 09.031.4 from: http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/resources/ttl6-10.pdf 63 National Weather Service. 2013 Heat Related Statistics. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/heat13.pdf 64 Scientific American. “How Does a Heat Wave Affect the Human Body?” July 23, 2010. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heat-wave-health/ 65 National Weather Service. “Lightning Safety.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/fatalities.htm 66 Weather.com. “What Happens When Lightning Strikes You?” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.weather.com/health/news/catching-lightning-body-what-happens-when-lightning-strikes- 20140114 67 National Weather Service. “Lightning Safety: How Dangerous is Lightning?” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.htm 68 LPS Experts. “Who is concerned by the risk of lightning?” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.lps- experts.be/lightning-risks/who-is-concerned-by-the-risk-of-lightning/ 69 National Weather Service. “Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2013 in the United States.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/sum13.pdf 70 National Weather Service. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml 71 National Climatic Data Center. Archived data from 1950 through 2011. Print. Additional data retrieved 09.02.14 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ 72 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 73 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h 74 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b 75 Wikipedia. “Ground Blizzard.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_blizzard 76 Dictionary.com. “Ice.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ice 77 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=i 78 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b 79 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-104
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
80 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 81 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 82 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b 83 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 84 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=i 85 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 86 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=f 87 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=f 88 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=i 89 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=s 90 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=f 91 National Weather Service. Glossary. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=w 92 National Severe Storms Laboratory. Severe Weather 101: Winter Weather Basics. Retrieved 03.03.15 from https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/winter/ 93 State of North Dakota Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. 2014. Print. 94 National Climatic Data Center. Storm Events Database. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=38%2CNORTH+DAKOTA 95 Oxford Dictionary. “Fire.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/fire 96 Wikipedia. “Fire.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire 97 Wikipedia. “Wildfire.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildfire 98 National Fire Protection Association. Home Structure Fires. Ahrens, Marty. 2013. Print. 99 US Forest Service. Wildland Fire Potential Assessment. Assessment run June 2014. 100 National Wildfire Coordinating Group. Gaining an Understanding of the National Fire Danger Rating System, July 2002. Print. 101 US Forest Service, Wildland Fire Assessment System. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.wfas.net/index.php/fire-danger-rating-fire-potential--danger-32/class-rating-fire-potential- danger-51?task=view 102 National Fire Protection Association. “Wildfire Safety.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/outdoors/wildland-fires 103 Mountrail County Fire Department Call Area Map. Provided by Mountrail County Emergency Management. 104 Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, US Department of Transportation. Hazardous Materials Table. Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/portal/site/PHMSA/menuitem.6f23687cf7b00b0f22e4c6962d9c8789/?vgnextoi d=d84ddf479bd7d110VgnVCM1000009ed07898RCRD&vgnextchannel=4f347fd9b896b110VgnVCM1000009 ed07898RCRD
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-105
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
105 Homeland Security Infrastructure Program, 2011. 106 Homeland Security Infrastructure Program, 2011. 107 Homeland Security Infrastructure Program, 2011. 108 Environmental Health and Safety, Oklahoma State University. “Department of Transportation (DOT) Dangerous Goods Classifications.” Retrieved 03.03.15 from http://ehs.okstate.edu/modules/dot/DOT_Class.htm#Explosives 109 State of North Dakota Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. 2014. Print. 110 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print. 111 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print. 112 Federal Emergency Management Agency, FIRM Data (digital). 2015. 113 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print. 114 Federal Emergency Management Agency. NFIP Community Status Book. May 2015. Print. 115 Federal Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved 08.04.15 from http://www.fema.gov/flood-zones 116 National Weather Service. Retrieved 08.04.15 from Flood Safety. Flood Warning Terms/Technical Terms. http://floodsafety.com/national/links/glossary/. 117 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print. 118 National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved 08.04.15 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=%28C%29+Flash+Flood&eventType=%2 8Z%29+Flood&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1950&endDate_mm=07&endDate_d d=31&endDate_yyyy=2015&county=MOUNTRAIL%3A61&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort =DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=38%2CNORTH+DAKOTA 119 Mountrail County, North Dakota Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. 2006. Print. 120 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. February 2015. Print. 121 Ashworth, Allan. Climate Change in North Dakota Since the Last Glaciation: Review of the Paleontological Record. Retrieved 03.04.15 from http://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/~ashworth/ndas.html 122 US Department of Agriculture. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2014. Print. 123 US Department of Agriculture. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2014. Print. 124 Venner, Jim. Farmer. Verbal interview conducted 03.05.15. 125 US Department of Agriculture. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2014. Print. 126 US Department of Agriculture. North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2014. Print. 127 US Census Bureau. Retrieved 08.18.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_12_5YR_DP05 128US Census Bureau. Retrieved 04.20.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_12_5YR_DP05 129US Census Bureau. Retrieved 04.20.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_12_5YR_DP05 130US Census Bureau. Retrieved 04.20.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_12_5YR_DP05 131US Census Bureau. Retrieved 04.20.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_12_5YR_DP05 132 US Census Bureau. Retrieved 08.04.15 from: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF 133 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print. 134 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. February 2015. Print. 135 US Census Bureau. Retrieved 08.18.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1 136 US Census Bureau. Retrieved 08.18.14 from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-106
Mountrail County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 11: Mountrail County: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment, Capability Assessment, and Mitigation Strategy
137 Jurisdictional Worksheet – Mountrail County. August 2015. Print.
APA Draft – September 30, 2015 – Page 11-107